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#TSMCQ3RecordProfit TSMC's revenue record was already known to the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the day of the earnings report might be a step behind the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue grew 54.6% year-over-year but declined 0.6% month-over-month. This contrast is quite interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous one. Small monthly . 80,000, broken.
BTC briefly dropped to 79,991 USDT, with over 170,000 people liquidated in 24 hours, longs accounting for 90%.
What changed? This is BTC's third retest near 81,000, but on-chain realized losses have decreased — the first time was panic selling concentrated exits, the second time selling willingness significantly weakened, the third time is the macro bearish pressure forcing "swing chips" to stop loss.
Why is this worth attention? The long-short ratio has dropped to 0.8628, with shorts holding short-term advantage. But the decreasing losses indicate: chips are clearing out, not a full collapse.
Which observation is currently more supported? More inclined to "consolidation digestion." Short-term holders' loss ratio is about 31%, still below the historical average of 42.7%, so clearing might not be finished yet.
Next thing to watch: Are losses converging or expanding again? If converging, the bottom is near. Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC 美国PPI一出来，风险偏好又挨了一记闷棍，通胀黏性的担忧重新冒头。华尔街隔夜涨跌互现，加密市场跌得更直接：BTC 81,180美元，24小时跌1.11%；ETH 2,372美元，跌2.71%；SOL 103美元，跌1.16%。主流资产几乎全线走弱。
这波下行还是宏观预期在收紧。PPI让市场对降息路径更保守，无风险利率维持高位，折现率抬升，高估值、高Beta资产最先承压。加密处在风险曲线末端，流动性预期一反复，波动就会被放大，跌幅普遍超过美股。说到底，它还是对流动性最敏感的那类资产。
宏观拐点没出现前，反弹别急着当入场信号。拉起来，更多是减仓的机会。
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？TSMC report: Q3 net profit up 68.7% year-on-year, gross margin 66.4%; Q4 revenue guidance midpoint implies about 14% sequential growth. Demand for advanced processes remains strong, 2nm is accelerating in volume.
US stock after-hours $TSM down about 2.0%, $SOXX down about 2.2%. This strong performance has not yet stopped the semiconductor decline.
Last night’s CPI exceeded expectations, increasing market concerns about rate hikes. TSMC can prove advanced chip demand is still strong, but it cannot solve the pressure from interest rates and financing costs.
What is worth noting now: both results and guidance are strong, yet the stock price continues to fall. This means that strong demand alone is no longer enough to attract capital back in.
The semiconductor fundamentals are supported, but short-term bottoming has not been confirmed. Tonight, we will see after the official open whether this positive news can bring sustained buying.#渣打开放BTC与ETH交易，银行加密业务扩展
渣打作为全球系统重要性银行，正式落地BTC、ETH现货交易服务，目前面向合规专业/机构高净值客户开放，并非普通散户，配套银行自有托管体系，在VARA、FCA监管框架内运行。
这代表传统主流银行，不再只做资金通道，直接下场提供报价、交易、托管一体化服务，是TradFi持续接纳蓝chip加密资产的标志性事件。
*要分清：*
短期不会立刻带来巨量增量资金进场。有交易通道，不等于机构马上大举买入，很多是满足现有客户资产配置、对冲需求，更多是降低合规入场门槛，属于中长期基建利好，短期情绪属性更强。
*深层叙事：*
继现货ETF打通资管渠道后，全球性大行柜台交易，补齐另一块机构接入路径。
*放到盘面传导：*
属于偏积极的情绪催化，但当前行情主线依旧由美债收益率、通胀和降息预期主导。如果宏观压制持续，这条消息很难独立推动趋势上涨，大概率是脉冲式利好，容易利好兑现回落；但若后续持续看到多家大行跟进扩容，长期会慢慢拓宽增量资金来源。
后续跟踪重点：是否拓展到其他地区、开放范围会不会扩大，以及有没有新增同行跟进落地同类业务。
$BTC $ETH#BlackRock's crypto asset scale grew by 63%, directly pulling the scale to $79.6 billion. Breaking down the data carefully is interesting: of the $30.8 billion increase, $22.9 billion was driven by the token price appreciation itself, and the actual new net inflow was $7.9 billion.
What does this mean? Institutional channels are steadily managing liquidity, but the vast majority of the increase is still driven by the appreciation of existing assets. Wall Street's fees are soaring, and the pricing power of Bitcoin and Ethereum is further locked tightly within traditional financial accounts.
For US stocks, the earnings logic of concept stocks like COIN and MSTR has completely turned into a derivative indicator of institutional holdings. Funds have not increased out of thin air; it's just that the weight of cross-asset allocation is reshuffling. Understanding the real inflow of $7.9 billion and the proportion of asset unrealized gains is far more useful than just watching the total book value.
$ZEC $SNDK $OKB #ETF在跑，巨鲸在扫货——今天最值得盯的分歧。
比特币现货ETF昨天净流出2.61亿美元，富达FBTC一家就跑了1.53亿。但链上数据同时显示，大额持有者（10-10000 BTC地址）的持仓已经升到303万枚BTC，逆势加仓。
发生了什么变化？ 机构通过ETF在减，链上大户在接。
为什么值得关注？ 这两拨人看的是不同的东西。ETF流出更多受美联储利率不确定性和宏观抛压驱动；链上巨鲸看的是周期位置和估值，不跟短期利率走。
目前更支持哪一种观察？ 更偏向“筹码换手”而非“全面撤退”——ETF卖的是流动性筹码，大户接的是长期仓位，两者可以同时发生。
接下来盯紧一件事：这种“ETF流出、链上流入”的背离是持续扩大还是很快收敛。评论区聊聊你的判断。$ETH xXIAOMI/USDT is showing a strong breakout on the 1D chart.
Last price is $xXIAOMI 3.435, up +4.31%, near the 24h high $3.453 after bouncing from $2.972 bottom. Price just broke above MA5 $3.262, MA10 $3.203 and MA20 $3.217 with a big green candle. Volume is spiking to 1.70M, confirming bullish momentum.
If it holds above $3.40, next target is $3.60 top. Support is now $xXIAOMI a3.25 - $3.20. Trend flipped from bearish to bullish. This looks ready to continue higher. Bulls are in control now.美国PPI炸了，但这次BTC跌得不太一样。
9月PPI同比冲到6.3%，远超预期的5.3%，创四年新高。数据出来后，BTC从8.3万美元一路滑到8万美元附近，看着吓人。
但有个细节被忽略了：BTC过去一周已经三次砸向8.1万美元，每次砸出来的链上亏损规模，反而越来越小。
这说明什么？ 第一次是恐慌盘集中离场，第二次没人愿意割了，第三次是宏观利空逼着“摇摆筹码”止损——更像是筹码在慢慢出清，而不是全面崩盘。
目前更支持“震荡消化”而非“趋势崩塌”的观察：资金费率转负，但多空比仍偏多，市场处于被动持仓的拥挤状态。
接下来盯紧一件事： 8万美元这个位置，亏损释放是在收敛，还是在重新扩大？收敛，短期压力就差不多了。评论区说说你的判断。$BTC PPI冲击后的资产分化：美元、黄金、BTC在定价什么？
PPI数据远超预期，但三大资产的反应出现了明显分化，这种分化本身就是最有价值的信息：
美元“先涨后跌”：数据公布初期美元因利差优势反弹，但随后掉头下行，最终下跌0.4%至98.02。市场开始定价“滞胀”风险——通胀顽固而消费动能不足（9月零售销售仅增0.2%），美元的购买力将受侵蚀。
黄金“逆势走高”：在滞胀风险上升时，机构资金的第一反应仍然是涌向黄金，而非比特币。比特币的“数字黄金”叙事在短期宏观冲击中仍然脆弱。
BTC“承压下行”：BTC在定价“流动性收紧预期”。BTCC首席分析师Mark指出，当PPI连续三个月高于2.5%时，加密市场通常出现10%-15%的短期波动。但本次PPI远超预期（6.3% vs 5.3%），BTC的反应幅度反而较小——说明市场在数据公布前已部分定价了通胀偏热的预期，且$80,000附近存在较强技术支撑，恐慌性抛售动能不足。$BTC $ETH $SOL #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Waking up from a nap, it felt like the account had been drained of power: DOGE gave back almost all its gains, BTC sounded an alarm near 80000, and ZEC hovered stubbornly around 1000 without giving a clear answer. Is it that every time sentiment is at its peak, the market turns first? Watching these three scenes, my first reaction wasn’t "it’s falling again," but rather that this looks more like a divergence phase within a trend, even locally showing signs of distribution. DOGE is the most obvious: small steps up when rising, but tumbling down the mountain when falling, indicating short-term sentiment traders are withdrawing; without Musk’s external calls, even its rebound framework is weak. BTC is more critical; 80000 is seen as the last line of dignity, and once broken, 76000 will come back into view; when the Korean market sneezes, the whole market heats up, reminding me that sometimes playing dead in spot is safer than dancing in futures. ZEC is another kind of pain, wavering around 1000, and if it breaks down, 900 is next; the direction is clearly downward, but the mistake is always wanting to short at a higher level, resulting in missing the ride and getting numb first. What the market is really trading here isn’t individual coins, but the speed of risk appetite contraction. CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, and tonight’s PPI will be another test; the macro side hasn’t eased sentiment; even with strong earnings stories from TSMC and Netflix, it doesn’t directly translate to a return of crypto buying. So BTC under pressure will first suppress ETH’s resilience, then the narrative space for altcoins; high-volatility assets like DOGE and ZEC become the sentiment thermometers. There is also a bullish path: if BTC holds 80000 and quickly recovers, short covering will first repair the mainstream,At 20:30 tonight, a set of significant macroeconomic data will be released, serving as a second stress test following the CPI data.
The September retail sales month-over-month forecast has dropped from 1.10% to 0.30%, indicating a notable slowdown in end-consumer spending. If the data materializes as expected, it could curb inflation but ignite market concerns about economic downturn.
The September PPI year-over-year forecast is slightly down, while the month-over-month forecast rises to 0.50%, reflecting persistent upstream production inflation and that pressure has not yet fully eased.
Initial jobless claims are expected to slightly increase to 200,000, signaling marginal weakening in the labor market; meanwhile, the New York Fed manufacturing outlook is improving. Overall, economic slowdown and inflation resilience coexist.
Previously, CPI exceeded expectations, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields and rate hike expectations, causing a sharp pullback in the storage sector stocks.
Scenario analysis: If consumption and employment data show clear weakness, the market will trade on a "weak economy" narrative, rate hike expectations will decline, and crypto will have a chance to recover; if retail sales and PPI again exceed expectations strongly, stagflation concerns will rise, and Bitcoin will face renewed selling pressure. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC 日内行情分析
刚刚美股开盘，BTC率先跟随风险资产走弱，价格下探至近期低点79700美元附近，该位置临近市场共识的80000美元关键支撑区间，现货承接力量集中显现，行情随后快速反弹至81000以上。本轮行情除利空落地带来的预期修复之外，技术支撑作用显著，叠加长端美债收益率冲高后边际回落，风险情绪同步修复，衍生品市场空头被动平仓进一步放大反弹幅度。本轮反弹分化特征显著，BTC率先修复，山寨跟随力度有限，美股科技板块同步修复但强度不足，并未形成风险偏好的全面反转。
后续行情方面，短期市场大概率维持震荡格局，本次反弹定性为依托关键支撑形成的脉冲修复，趋势性上行行情仍需要通胀数据持续回落、降息预期重新修复作为基础。若通胀持续维持韧性，高利率延续预期将持续压制加密资产估值，市场反弹更多属于阶段性机会；后续核心观测指标为核心PCE数据以及美联储官员的政策表态，流动性预期变化仍是主导美股成长板块与加密资产中期方向的核心变量。80000 is not support; it is where stop-losses accumulate
$BTC rebounded from 80200 to 81500.
This rebound was not driven by buying pressure.
What does this price level mean:
After the previous low was broken, those trapped above took the opportunity to close their positions.
Closing positions means buying back, which pushed the price up a bit.
Who is placing orders here:
After breaking the previous low, stop-loss orders are concentrated just below 80000.
When support is broken, those orders will be automatically sold.
Pushing down further, sell orders suppress the price, pushing it down another notch.
The next batch of stop-losses gets triggered.
At the 80000 round number, order density is higher than elsewhere.
Where orders are dense, the speed of being swept is also faster.
#BTC spot ETF sees net outflow again, can institutional buying recover?
#$BTC BTC retraces to the 50-day moving average: Is it a bull market entry opportunity or another cyclical trap?
Reviewing the bear-to-bull market transitions in 2015, 2019, and 2023, there is a notable commonality: about 40–50 days after BTC reclaims the 50-day moving average, it often experiences a retracement, following a cumulative gain of around 30%. Although subsequent price movements vary, some rallies have surged over 50% after confirming the retracement.
If a similar pattern occurs this time, the pullback is indeed worth close attention. However, historical patterns are not guaranteed scripts, and a few samples are insufficient to prove repetition every time.
What truly requires focus is the trading volume during the retracement, whether the 50-day moving average can hold, and if a break below can be quickly recovered. If the breakdown occurs with high volume and the rebound faces persistent resistance, be cautious of a weakening trend rather than mechanically treating the decline as a buying opportunity.
**Pullbacks may create opportunities, but confirmed support is the basis for trading.** Don’t rush to guess the bottom; keep cash ready, control your position size, and let the market provide the answers first. $BTC #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? The rumor about Li Ka-shing's death, I should be the first on the entire internet to debunk it. Jiasheng International still hit the daily limit today—A-shares operate on T+1, so the market makers who pushed the limit up can't sell today, they can only hold on and keep it locked until the close.Is SNDK at $1310 a golden opportunity or a bottomless pit?
Falling from 2354 to 1310, halving in a month, everyone is cursing "Chinese storage is about to flip the table"—but just now, RSI dropped into the oversold zone, while S&P upgraded the rating to BBB. Is this wave truly the golden opportunity for AI storage, or the first domino signaling a cycle peak?
Let's look at the surface first: the drop is so severe even close supporters don't recognize it, but someone is quietly buying.
Current price $1310, down 15-20% in a week, and another 6-8% today. 52-week high was 2354, now halved. Huge trading volume, Binance perpetual contracts have tens of billions USDT in 24 hours, and funding rates remain positive—indicating bulls are not dead yet, shorts are still collecting rent.
Candlesticks tell you: broke all short-term moving averages, MACD death cross bearish alignment, consecutive red candles, RSI 28-35 entering oversold territory. All indicators shout one thing: a technical rebound can come anytime, but the trend is already down.
First point: The "wolf is coming" for Chinese storage, the market preemptively sells off out of respect.
ChangXin (CXMT) has breakthroughs in DRAM, rumors in NAND, and YMTC's NAND market share is rising. The market hears "Chinese capacity" and the entire storage sector panics—Micron and SK Hynix both get hammered.
But understand one thing: SNDK's main business is NAND flash and enterprise SSDs, not DRAM. ChangXin focuses on DRAM, so direct competition with SNDK is limited.
This is "emotional contagion," not "fundamental collapse."
In plain terms: others catch a cold, you start your own funeral. This is the market's stupidity and the smart money's opportunity.
Second point: AI storage demand has not stopped.
SNDK is a pure NAND play spun off from Western Digital. FY2026 revenue $20.2 billion, up 175% year-over-year, net profit $11.4 billion, gross margin once hit 80%+. Enterprise/data center business grows rapidly, with data storage cooperation with Meta, long-term contracts and prepayments locking in visibility.
S&P upgraded rating to BBB, emphasizing strong cash flow. Analyst consensus target price $2100-2200, some up to $2400+.
All fundamental data says: this company is making money hand over fist.
So why did the stock fall from 2354 to 1310?
Because the market is betting—betting the storage cycle has peaked, betting Chinese capacity will crush pricing power, betting AI capital expenditure is unsustainable.
If the bet is right, SNDK falls below 1000. If wrong, this is a golden opportunity.
Third point: The October 29 earnings report is a life-or-death verdict.
Q1 FY2027 earnings expected EPS about $46, revenue about $10.6 billion. Previous quarters have significantly beaten expectations.
This is the key validation point:
If earnings beat + strong guidance → market realizes "China panic" is a false alarm → rapid recovery to 1500-1800
If pricing slows or guidance is conservative → confirms cycle peak → further deep correction, testing 1000-1200
What you are buying now is not a stock, but a lottery ticket before earnings.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself:
On one side:
AI data center/enterprise SSD demand is very strong, NAND supply tight
S&P upgraded to BBB, strong cash flow
Forward PE down to single digits, valuation well digested
RSI oversold, strong technical rebound demand
Analyst consensus target price $2100-2200
On the other side:
Chinese capacity poses medium-to-long-term threat (CXMT/YMTC)
Strong storage cycle, once pricing peaks profits compress quickly
CPI elevated, US Treasury yields rising, suppressing high-valuation tech stocks
Broke all short-term moving averages, trend down
Funding rate still positive, crowded longs prone to further liquidations
Key level 1310, only $40 above support at 1270.
Resistance above: 1350-1400 → 1500 → 1800
Support below: 1270-1300 → 1200 → 1000 (extreme case)
Trading strategy
Short term (1-2 weeks):
Don't rush to bottom-fish. Trend is down, wait for stabilization near 1300 + volume surge with bullish candle + RSI divergence, then try small long positions.
Set strict stop loss below 1270, target to sell half at 1350-1400.
If rebound to 1350-1400 is weak, consider light short positions targeting 1300-1270.
Leverage controlled within 3-5x, don't get greedy.
Mid term (until earnings):
If it continues down to around 1200 or lower, and fundamentals remain unchanged, build positions gradually, betting on earnings catalyst.
Position size controlled at 2-3% of total capital, avoid heavy positions.
Reduce positions before earnings, don't gamble on earnings—if right, profit; if wrong, loss.
Risk control:
Always use stop loss, must exit if below 1270.
Watch US market open and CPI data, macro drives short-term moves.
SNDK's current script is exactly like Nvidia's pullback in 2024—
Everyone shouted "AI bubble burst," but earnings proved them wrong.
But remember: once cyclical stocks weaken, their drops are irrational.
No matter how strong the AI narrative, it can't resist the gravitational pull of the storage cycle.
$BTC $SNDK $CXMT ⚠️$BTC Bitcoin price is only a few hundred dollars away from its ETF cost price
The current price is about $815,000, right within the average cost range of the US spot ETF.
But the current buying power is quite weak:
• From October 7 to 15, ETF net outflows were nearly $750 million.
Spot trading volume remains sluggish
• The largest buy order size on CEX exchanges is currently small, about $80,000.
Meanwhile, below $80,000, there is a large amount of long liquidation. Bitcoin may first test the $80,000 level rather than directly rebound to $85,000. If the closing price is below $80,000, it may reach the true market average around $78,000.Details of the inflation structure show that the core services component continues to dominate and is the largest contributor to inflation compared to the energy and goods components. Although the energy component surged sharply at the beginning of 2026, overall inflationary pressure remained in the range of 3%–4% due to high costs in the services sector, which are more difficult to ease (sticky). This rigidity in service inflation reflects the still strong pressure from internal operational costs and domestic demand, which conAAVE breaks below 155, the lending leader dragged down as well
$AAVE 150.9, down about 5.6%, the 155 level broke as soon as it was tested. It was holding relatively firm at 156 and 158 a couple of days ago, but today it was dragged down directly to 150. Even the lending leader couldn't escape this hit. Its strength lies in real demand; the more active the market, the deeper the moat for lending. But this wave is a broad decline, and even coins with solid fundamentals fall when funds withdraw. It dropped 9% in a week, one of the bigger pullbacks recently. After breaking 155, that level turned into resistance, 150 is the current position, with a downside target of 148. Unlike coins driven by sentiment, it has real lending business behind it. Holding it is a long-term play, but short-term pullbacks require patience. Wait for it to stabilize near 150 and climb back above 155 before reconsidering. No need to watch bottom-tier coins every day.
$RE 0.404, down about 5.8%, it and AAVE both belong to DeFi, one insurance and one lending. Both are retreating today, indicating the whole sector is being reduced by funds. 0.4 is a psychological level; if it can't hold, things look worse. Insurance is a slow burner; it needs a market recovery before attracting attention, so don't rush to buy.
$WLD 0.476, down about 6.6%, it is the barometer for the AI sector. Its drop indicates funds are withdrawing from narrative-driven assets, and it's not just this one. Narrative assets are the first to be sold in weak markets because funds seek certainty. If 0.476 can't hold, look down to 0.45. Wait for the storm to pass; don't rush to catch the fall.BTC is currently trading around $80,500, down about 2.6% in 24 hours, having briefly dipped to a low of $80,204, just shy of the $80,000 mark.
On the macro front, the US September CPI year-over-year came in at 3.7%, exceeding expectations, with PPI and retail data also strong. The probability of a rate hike in October surged from 22% to 47%. The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5.33%, the dollar is strengthening, and risk assets are under broad pressure.
On-chain data shows BTC has tested the $81,000 level for the third time, but the losses on each dip are decreasing, indicating a reduction in panic selling. More so, it reflects swing traders cutting losses rather than a full-scale crash. The average ETF holding cost is about $81,500, nearly matching the current price, forming a key dividing line between bulls and bears. The funding rate turning negative indicates short-term dominance by shorts, but the long-short ratio still favors bulls, suggesting a risk of crowded long positions being passively held.
Technically, the $80,000–$80,700 range is a critical support zone; a decisive break below could test the true market average price around $78,000. Resistance lies between $82,000 and $84,000, which needs volume recovery to improve the short-term structure. It is recommended to wait and watch for stabilization signals and pay attention to subsequent Federal Reserve officials' statements for their impact on macro sentiment. $BTC TSMC's Q3 net profit reached 763.1 billion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year increase of 68.7%, setting a new quarterly high and exceeding expectations. Revenue was 1.49 trillion, up 50.9% year-on-year. 2nm accounted for 8% of wafer revenue, and advanced processes overall accounted for 79%. AI demand is still supporting performance. But the stock price fell 2.82%. Why? The market is not looking at how much has already been earned, but how much of that money will need to be spent. Growth heavily**Is the Fed's "script" about to be torn up?**
Before: Forward guidance + quarterly dot plot was standard, giving the market a reference. In June, Waller refused to release his personal dot plot and cut the statement to 130 words, already showing signs.
Now: Waller is pushing to weaken or even cancel the dot plot, the statement no longer hints at the interest rate path; in September SEP, 16/18 officials expect more hikes this year; after the September hike, other officials appeared publicly over 40 times, effectively "speaking" for him; internal disputes have already erupted within the Fed.
Going forward: If this happens, volatility will spread from FOMC days to every data release day—each CPI and nonfarm payroll release becomes a "lottery day." The MOVE index for US Treasury volatility has reached 80.6, up 23% from the June low.
Impact: $BTC $ETH are most sensitive to macro data. With an uncertain interest rate path, risk assets are hard to price, and crypto market volatility will only amplify.
Do you think Waller's move makes the market more rational or more stimulated? #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, can there be more hikes this year? #TSMC Q3 net profit beats expectations, profits hit a record high Last night's CPI just shocked the market, and tonight's PPI completely flipped the table.
Data across the board exceeded expectations... The market's hope for a rebound was extinguished.
Yesterday, the CPI exceeded expectations by about 0.1 percentage points. Energy, especially gasoline, was the main contributor, but housing, cars, and clothing also rose, indicating that the pressure is not solely dependent on oil prices.
Looking at the two days together, the energy shock is no longer a one-time disturbance at the CPI level; it will continue to transmit to the consumer side. The PPI year-on-year surged to 6.3%, much higher than the CPI, so it's hard to expect the CPI to ease easily in the coming months.
For the Federal Reserve, this PPI basically confirms the necessity of further rate hikes. In terms of policy implications, the Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points in September, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4%. The market originally expected a pause in October and another move in December.
After two consecutive days of inflation data exceeding expectations, the communication at the October meeting will be tougher, and the narrative of rate cuts is untenable; for the market, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar have short-term upward momentum, and stock valuations are under pressure. #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high Capital behavior review: BTC bear-to-bull phase moving average pullback historical chip signal
From the market, long-term funds are gradually entering, while short-term traders remain cautious. Historical market statistics (on-chain historical K-line, four cycles in 2015/2019/2023/2025) show that the key points for BTC's four bear-to-bull market transitions generally involve a pullback within 40 to 50 days after stabilizing above the 50-day moving average. The rise from stabilizing above the moving average to before this pullback mostly hovers around 30%.
Funds choose to accumulate chips at the pullback position, but subsequent behavior varies across cycles. In 2015 and 2019, after the pullback, long-term funds continued to increase positions, and the market rose at least 50%; in 2023, there was a brief break below the moving average followed by rapid capital inflow, then similarly a 50% upward move.
This current pullback is one of the cycle signals given by long-term funds. At what price would you set your limit orders and stop losses to respond to this chip test?
$BTC $ETH $SOL In the past two days, US Treasury yields have been bouncing above 5%, and ETH has taken a much bigger hit than BTC. BTC dropped 2.6% in one day, while ETH fell 5%, now at 2371.
The reason, simply put, is a matter of calculation.
One of ETH's strongest selling points in the past two years is its ability to generate interest. You can stake ETH and earn some yield annually; many institutions are attracted by this, treating it as an "interest-bearing digital asset."
But what is the interest rate now? Only about 2.2% per year.
Look at US Treasuries. Even if the 10-year yield drops today, it’s still at 5.1%. You can put money in and earn passively without worrying about price fluctuations or sudden crashes.
On one side, there’s 2.2% yield but you have to bear the price volatility; on the other, there’s 5.1% yield with no hassle. If you were a fund manager, you’d definitely move money toward US Treasuries.
BTC doesn’t have this problem. It never relies on interest; people buy it as digital gold. So when US Treasury yields rise, ETH is the first to be outcompeted.
This also explains why ETH ETFs saw $200 million flow out in a single day a few days ago. It’s not that people don’t believe in Ethereum, but at this price, holding it isn’t cost-effective.
So ETH is in a tougher spot than BTC. In terms of price, today it hit a low of 2332; 2315 below is critical, and if it breaks that, look toward 2200. On the upside, reclaiming 2500 first is needed to consider a recovery.
Only when US Treasury yields truly come down will ETH’s interest advantage return, and then its rebound will be stronger than BTC’s. $BTC $ETH In 24 hours, the probability of a rate hike in October surged from 20% to 50% — but the truly scary thing isn't this.
Yesterday, CPI exceeded expectations, and the market was still consoling itself with "no rate hike in October." Today, PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, expected was 0.5%, which is 2.6 times the forecast. The probability of a rate hike in October jumped directly from 20% to 50% in just 24 hours.
But the real fear isn't the doubling of the rate hike probability.
It's that the August PPI data was revised up from 5.4% to 5.6% — this indicates the previous data was already strong but was just concealed. Inflation didn't "suddenly rebound," it has been there all along; the market just refuses to admit it.
There's also a time window many have overlooked: Wash will speak tomorrow at 11:30 AM in Bangkok, and the Fed enters a blackout period on Saturday. That means tomorrow is his last chance to make a public statement. Against the backdrop of such explosive PPI data, if he hints that a rate hike in October is possible — BTC could directly surge to 78,000.
80,000 was already broken once today; the support at this level is weaker than expected. Don't try to catch a falling knife here; wait for Wash's speech to land before making moves #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Not only did they increase, but during the downward test, it was still about one-sixth and one-fifth. The position of the big dip needle was right in the middle of the range. Wealth is sought in risk, and it is also lost in risk.Looking at the three coins together is more useful than just focusing on the price of $BTC alone. My framework (the following prices are quoted in USD on the OKX price page at Beijing time 22:27 on October 15): - $BTC to observe market cycles: I use BTC price fluctuations as a reference to gauge market risk appetite. The current price is about $81,311. The US September CPI released on October 14 Beijing time showed an overall year-on-year increase of 3.7% and a core year-on-year increase of 2.6%, both higher than market expectations of 3.6% and 2.5%, respectively. After the release, BTC briefly fell below $83,000, once dipped below $82,000 to test around $80,000, and has now rebounded to near $81,300. When price volatility is high, I look at it first. - $ETH to observe capital flow: I use the net subscriptions and redemptions of the US spot ETF for ETH to monitor changes in investment channel funds (all data below are for US Eastern trading days). The current price is about $2,376. On October 12 (Monday), there was a net outflow of about $85.4 million — as of that day, there had been 10 consecutive trading days of net outflows (from September 29 to October 12), the longest continuous net outflow since May 11 to June 3, 2026; on October 13, there was a brief net inflow of about $24.84 million, turning positive for one day; on October 14, net outflow resumed at about $130 million (with ETHA alone accounting for about $110 million). The net inflow on October 13 interrupted the previous continuous outflow, but on the 14th it turned back to net outflow. This reflects the US spotWhy did TSMC's stock price plunge despite exceeding Q3 expectations?
On October 15, TSMC $TSM released its Q3 2026 financial report: revenue reached 1.494 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%; net profit was 763.06 billion New Taiwan Dollars, up 68.7% year-on-year, setting a record high and surpassing the market expectation of 746.3 billion New Taiwan Dollars. However, the impressive results did not boost the stock price; as of now, TSMC has dropped over 5%, trading at $407.
What exactly is the market afraid of?
First, gross margin pressure. Q3 gross margin was 66.4%, down 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, below the market expectation of 66.5%, mainly due to the initial mass production of the 2nm process lowering margins. Management further indicated that overseas fabs in the coming years will dilute gross margin by 3 to 4 percentage points.
Second, the AI rally is fully priced in. TSMC has set profit records for six consecutive quarters; traders want acceleration, not just confirmation. When expectations are maxed out, beating expectations alone is insufficient to drive the stock price higher.
Third, forward guidance reveals caution. Despite strong AI demand, the company clearly stated it is "maintaining caution" in planning for 2027. Rising component prices and macroeconomic uncertainties are pressuring consumer electronics end markets, which the market interprets as a signal that growth may have peaked.
With these three concerns combined, even with hot performance, the market has chosen to vote with its feet.
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 As soon as the US PPI was released, risk appetite took another hit, and concerns about sticky inflation resurfaced. Wall Street showed mixed gains and losses overnight, while the crypto market dropped more directly: BTC at $81,180, down 1.11% in 24 hours; ETH at $2,372, down 2.71%; SOL at $103, down 1.16%. Almost all mainstream assets weakened across the board.
This downturn is still driven by tightening macro expectations. The PPI makes the market more conservative about the rate cut path, risk-free rates remain high, discount rates rise, and high-valuation, high-beta assets bear the brunt first. Crypto sits at the far end of the risk curve; when liquidity expectations fluctuate, volatility is amplified, and declines generally exceed those of US stocks. Ultimately, it remains the asset class most sensitive to liquidity.
Before a macro turning point appears, don’t rush to see any rebound as a buy signal. When prices rise, it’s more an opportunity to reduce positions.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#USCPIandPPIsurpassexpectations, will there be more rate hikes this year? $BTC once dropped below $80,000,
$ETH touched around $2,322.
In the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidations amounted to about $977 million, with longs accounting for over 90%.
As of tonight, all the negative news has been released,
Is it time for a rebound?
Liquidation is the result, not the cause,
Prices were first pushed down by macro interest rates,
Then triggered a chain of leveraged forced liquidations,
So a rebound is easy.
However,
The macro pressure hasn't eased:
September CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, higher than expected,
The Fed's October rate hike expectations have clearly risen;
The 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 5%.
ETF funds are still flowing out:
In October, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs are still net outflows overall,
Institutional marginal buying hasn't returned.
Next, watch three signals:
Whether Bitcoin can stand back above $83,000–$86,000 and hold for two consecutive days;
Whether the US spot Bitcoin ETF shifts from net outflow to net inflow;
Whether the 10-year US Treasury yield and Fed rate hike expectations decline.我其实倾向于特斯拉本季度财报不超预期~
两个原因：
第一，盈利基准本身不低。
EPS门槛为$0.43，意味着Tesla不仅需要维持利润，还需要在汽车交付、汽车毛利率、能源业务和其他收入之间取得足够的利润改善。
第二，汽车业务仍是核心变量。
Tesla的估值叙事越来越依赖Robotaxi、FSD、AI与能源业务，但本次财报是否“超预期”，首先仍取决于当季会计利润。未来业务故事未必能直接转化为本季度EPS。
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Macro Background: This Time Is Different
The core driver of this round of decline is macroeconomic factors, not issues within the crypto or tech sectors themselves. The US September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, higher than the expected 3.6%; core CPI rose 2.6% year-over-year, exceeding the expected 2.5%; month-over-month it increased 0.6%, marking the largest gain in nearly five months. Last month, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike in three years, and hinted at possible further increases in the coming months. The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly surged above 5.3%.
In a rising interest rate environment, all non-yielding assets (cryptocurrencies) and high-valuation growth stocks (AI concepts) face valuation reappraisal. This is not a "the more it falls, the more it will rebound" issue, but a "the pricing anchor is shifting" issue. Until the Fed's policy path is clear, any rebound may be short-lived $BTC $ETH $BTC #CoreWeave Stocks and Bonds Both Plunge, CEO Responds to Financing Concerns
The leader has something to say
CoreWeave experienced a double hit in stocks and bonds yesterday. The stock price dropped 15.46%, and the yield on the 2032 bonds broke 15%. What is the market worried about? It carries $52.1 billion in debt and lease liabilities. Although the order backlog exceeds 100 billion, turning orders into revenue requires building data centers and delivering computing power, which involves time and costs.
The CEO said the market is irrational and that long-term orders are sufficient to repay the debt. But with both stock and bond markets falling together, the reassurance actually suggests significant financing pressure. Orders are on paper, but cash flow is real. In a high interest rate environment, AI infrastructure companies with high leverage are very vulnerable.
This is indirectly negative for crypto. If AI infrastructure financing runs into problems, risk appetite will shrink, putting pressure on Bitcoin. Coupled with CPI exceeding expectations, inflation rising for three consecutive months, increased expectations of rate hikes, and high U.S. Treasury yields, macroeconomic pressure remains.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
I have already closed my long position at 84,000, locking in a profit of 1,200 points, and am now in cash. I’m not in a hurry to go long again; I’ll wait for the market to digest before reassessing. Support below is at 80,000; holding 82,000 means consolidation. No chasing the rally or panic selling; set stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive. Always set stop losses on your positions. Good luck.Putting the daily charts of $SOL and $BTC side by side for the past 59 days, SOL acts like a magnifying glass for BTC, amplifying the rise and fall by roughly the same multiple.
During the 32 days BTC rose, BTC averaged a 1.8% increase, while SOL averaged a 2.66% increase, about 1.5 times that, with SOL outperforming BTC on 22 of those days. During the 27 days BTC fell, BTC averaged a 1.25% decline, and SOL averaged a 1.94% decline, also about 1.5 times.
This multiple was most evident from August 17 to September 25. BTC rose 30.3%, SOL rose 60.7%, exactly doubling.
From the close on October 4 until now, BTC dropped from 86530 to 80578, a 6.9% decline, while SOL dropped from 121.6 to 101.91, a 16.2% decline. In this period, SOL’s drop exceeded the average multiple. The SOL to BTC price ratio is 0.001265, with a 59-day low of 0.001178 on August 17, a high of 0.001452 on September 25, and currently near the lower bound.
The magnifying glass amplifies both the downward and upward halves equally, with the same multiple. For those holding SOL, if you consider holding BTC’s daily close above 80,000 as your holding condition, then holding that means the magnified side is the upward half.$BTC 别急着抄底！八万就是最后一块遮羞布
今晚PPI没帮上忙，美股开盘也没救回来，下跌趋势照样压着打。刚这波下探，差一点就把八万给捅了。多头现在就在这位置硬撑。
PPI没用，美股没救，说明啥？这不是情绪杀，是趋势杀。市场在用脚投票，利空还没消化完。更关键的是明晚沃什发言，要是措辞偏鹰，八万大概率保不住。真到那时候，下方空间一开，带血的筹码估计得等到中期选举才有像样回暖。
我的建议很简单：现在别当免费韭菜。这位置我不抄底，理由就一个利空太多，情绪没出清，冲进去是赌运气，不是做交易。
想抄底？等八万有效跌破，看市场反应再说。
想做空？有效跌破八万，才是相对确定的机会。
想扛单？明天周五，沃什讲话是重中之重，周末流动性差，你在半山腰扛着，可能一路扛到下周一，扛到怀疑人生。
做合约，没行情的时候就一个字：等。保留子弹，别一股脑冲进去当韭菜，到时候哭都哭不出来。#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $SPCX $BTC $SOL SPCX fell from $225 to just over $100, has now bounced back to 176, then dropped again to 144, a cumulative decline of 36%. Stop convincing yourself with “Starship, Mars, AI.” Market pricing has shifted to AI and Starlink revenue; whenever AI fluctuates, it falls; FAA has initiated environmental assessments, regulatory investigations continue; about 7% of shares will be unlocked on October 26, creating selling pressure; ARK has already been reducing holdings. Even more brutal is the leverage: whales with 3x leverage are underwater by 84%, and those with 20x leverage have losses exceeding their principal. Valuation based on optimistic 2027 sales multiples is still nearly 19x, and the company is still losing money. Institutions are selling, are you buying? If your only reason to buy is “faith,” then don’t buy. The crash is not a chance to get in; it’s the market liquidating an overdrawn future. Don’t average down; first ask: does your original buying logic still hold? If not, cut losses; if you don’t understand, then learn. Staying alive is more important than faith.
#SPCX 319 million shares unlock this week, can the selling pressure be absorbed? Live update after an hour and a half of passing through: hail is easing, wind direction unchanged ⛈️
The strong convection at 8:30 passed on time. Current status: hail hit, wind blew, sky still not clear. My prediction that BTC would drop below 80,000 has come true!
First, the hail bill 🧊. In this past hour, the whole network liquidated 32.45 million, 90% hitting the longs. In BTC contracts, 12.99 million was liquidated, with longs accounting for 12.69 million; ETH saw 3.08 million, SOL 770,000. Over 24 hours, the total bill is 911 million, involving 170,000 people, 91.5% of whom were longs.
Next, the wind direction 💨. On the contracts market for the three brothers, money is still flowing out: BTC net outflow of 166 million, SOL net outflow of 14.2 million, ETH outflow of 8.49 million. Spot market also bleeding out, bears have the upper hand. The rain hasn't stopped, so don't put away your umbrella yet.
Interestingly, the hail is getting smaller. 32.45 million compared to previous 4-hour 57.63 million and 12-hour 616 million shows a clear weakening—the first wave of liquidations has basically been absorbed. Yet funding rates remain positive; on OKEx, ETH positions even increased by 4.58%, someone is bottom-fishing in the hail. The awkward part: the bottom fished now is exactly the raw material for the next hailstorm.
So the warning is not lifted yet. The hail has passed, but the wind direction hasn't changed, money is still flowing out. At 8:30 I said to watch from the sidelines, my view remains: wait for the wind to stop, don't pick up umbrellas in the hail.
Next hail report or clear skies depends on whether money flows back. Rainy days keep guests, sunny days keep money—time will tell ✊.Shorted near $PUMP 0.0051, the 12-hour chart has been steadily declining from the high of 0.0067, with selling pressure never stopping. It dropped more than 7 points intraday, with volume quite large, and the buying side couldn't hold at all. It's a Meme coin, named PUMP but the price hasn't pumped at all; when sentiment fades, it falls even harder than altcoins. Just follow the trend and short it.
Currently around 0.00437, the floating profit percentage looks intimidating at over 700%, but it was a small position with 50x leverage for trial and error, so the actual profit is just pocket money. Posting the screenshot is purely to record the market feeling. The previous low of 0.004235 was just tested, and this area tends to have profit-taking stop orders rushing out; the market also shows some signs of volume contraction and stabilization.
I don't like to fight with 50x leverage; Meme coins can spike back anytime with a single candle. I'm most likely preparing to take profits. It's better to run fast than to hold stubbornly; you can never sell at the lowest, but you just need to leave before you "feel a rebound coming."Stimulus, semiconductors have sharply corrected again
With interest rate hike expectations stepping up another notch, gold surprisingly hasn't dropped much tonight, even looking a bit strong, in stark contrast to last night's CPI plunge
A closer look reveals it's still related to safe-haven demand
1. Long-term US Treasury yields have recently plummeted (the 10-year is about to drop below 5 percentage points), with strong demand for US Treasuries
2. Tech stocks have plunged, and the US stock market's 'Seven Sisters' are also under valuation pressure
3. The crypto industry is collectively declining, with almost no decent rebound
So the real reason seems to be that part of the funds fleeing the AI tech sector have gone into government bonds, and another part has flowed into gold
As of this writing, spot gold is temporarily reported at 4150
But this is only a temporary sign; whether 4000 is the bottom and if a reversal can happen now remains to be seen over time #CPI After Release, Observing Funds Moving Weakly in Sync Between Nasdaq and Crypto Assets
On the evening of Beijing time, CPI data was released, and both the Nasdaq and crypto assets declined simultaneously, while U.S. Treasury yields rose. The synchronous movement of these two asset classes does not imply causation but reflects risk capital contracting simultaneously under unified interest rate expectations. Funds rotate among U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, and crypto assets: when interest rate expectations rise, high-volatility assets are reduced first, and liquidity preference shifts toward fixed income.
I suffered losses in this round of the market, with years of savings diminished. Lacking inherent support, I was eager to change my situation through trading, which made me impatient and lacking in execution. After reviewing, I realized the root problem was my own cognition, not the market. To sustain my living, I have taken on short-term physical work to earn living expenses, with no safety net, even having to time my emotional breakdowns. Although trading did not bring profits, this experience is also a kind of gain, and I will adjust my mindset and continue moving forward.
If subsequent Federal Reserve officials' speeches significantly shift toward easing, this linkage observation logic will become invalid.
$SOL $BTC $ZEC #US CPI and PPI Both Exceed Expectations, Will There Be Another Rate Hike This Year?
As soon as this data came out, I guess many people felt a jolt in their hearts.
US September PPI year-on-year shot up to 6.3%, while the market expected only 5.3%, and month-on-month was 1.3%, with an expectation of just 0.5%. Core PPI was the same, all exceeding expectations. Plus the previous CPI year-on-year at 3.7%, also higher than expected. Two consecutive inflation data points are on the hot side, indicating that price pressures have not eased at all.
Once the data came out, expectations for a rate hike this year rose again. But look at those officials, still the same as always, each saying their own thing. Daly said a rate hike might be necessary but not urgent. Goolsbee said we still need to see more data. To be frank, they themselves haven't decided what to do next. Now the whole market is focused on one person, Waller. Tomorrow morning at the IMF annual meeting, he will have a dialogue with the IMF chief, and the market wants to hear his stance on the future interest rate path.
What impact does this have?
First, short-term pressure is certain. Inflation is hot, rate hike expectations are heating up, so the dollar and US Treasury yields will be pushed up, and risk assets will take a hit. Bitcoin dropped 1% today, that's the logic. Off-exchange money is currently too scared to move, all waiting for Waller to speak.
Second, don't just focus on whether there will be a rate hike or not. Even if there isn't one, as long as inflation doesn't come down, long-term interest rates won't fall, and funding costs will remain high. For Bitcoin to break out into a one-sided rally, what it lacks is fresh liquidity, not a "no rate hike" slogan. At this position, it's tough both ways, it's just grinding.
What do you think? $BTC Falling for three days, but the funding rate still clings above zero: Bulls are stubborn, but their hands are weak
Conclusion first for tonight: The way it has fallen these three days is not panic, but a dull knife cutting flesh.
BTC 80,548, down 2.38% in 24h, bottoming at 80,228, just a breath away from 80,000. ETH 2,354, down 4.6%, 2400 lost. SOL 101.93, even 100 is hanging by a thread.
But the funding rate surprised me: BTC 0.0038%, ETH 0.0044%, all just above zero, stubbornly not turning negative. Three days of continuous decline, yet bulls still pay interest without fail.
In plain terms, they are stubborn: whether admitting mistakes or not, positions are held firmly; but 0.0038% is less than half of the normal 0.01%, so no one dares to add positions. Open interest of 30,800 BTC remains unchanged, no liquidations, no bottom-fishing, everyone is waiting for a reason.
Unfortunately, today's reasons are bearish: ETF net outflow of 261 million in one day, Wash is about to engage with the Fed communication framework again, interest rate expectations become less clear, risk assets take the hit first.
Outlook: From tonight to tomorrow morning, focus on one line, 80,228. If it breaks below and funding rate turns negative, bulls admit defeat, 80,000 whole number level will be tested; if it holds and funding rate rises, look for a rebound to 81,600. Falsification: If BTC closes back above 82,200 tonight and ETH returns to 2,450, this bearish view is invalid, and I will admit my mistake in tomorrow morning's opening.
The 80,000 level, do you think it can hold?#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins For those doing leverage today, take your eyes off the coin price and glance at oil. The International Energy Agency announced a full release of 100 million barrels of unused crude oil at once, plus an urgent release of 20 million barrels of diesel. Including the round in March, the total release exceeds 400 million barrels, effectively flooding the market from the supply side. When oil prices are pushed down, the most direct effect is a relief in inflation expectations. Why does this matter to $BTC? In recent months, the market has translated geopolitical conflicts and rising oil prices into the narrative of "sticky inflation and the Fed needing to keep raising rates," with rate hike expectations weighing down risk assets. Now that the supply side is proactively releasing pressure, if oil prices can stabilize and decline, the macro leash holding down crypto will loosen a notch. Of course, this is a slow-moving variable; don't expect it to reflect in the market today. Which do you believe more: that inflation can truly cool down, or that central banks will keep talking tough to the end? USDC issued $8.6 billion over seven days but redeemed even more: $10.1 billion. Circle's transparency data as of October 12 shows a net decrease in circulation of $1.5 billion, with a balance of $72.7 billion. This is the weekly statistic, not a single-day outflow.
Issuance is exchanging dollars for new USDC, while redemption returns the coins in exchange for dollars. Therefore, only looking at the $8.6 billion "new issuance" misses the larger reverse capital flow. The total amount of USDC available for on-chain payments, trading, and lending has actually shrunk.
For platforms and users relying on USDC turnover, if net redemptions continue and other funds do not replenish, available liquidity may tighten. However, this table does not specify which exchanges the funds came from, where they ultimately went, nor does it prove holders sold other crypto assets.
Next, issuance and redemption should be viewed together, along with monitoring exchange balances, lending supply and demand, and exchange price spreads. Supply reduction alone cannot determine that all stablecoin funds are withdrawing, nor can it be directly converted into an equivalent amount of coin sales.
Source and illustration: Circle transparency original page, data as of 10/12; reviewed at 22:07 Beijing time on 10/15, amounts are rounded values from the page. Below is the USDC/USDT spot trading entry.
https://www.okx.com/zh-hans/trade-spot/usdc-usdt$ETH Right now, everyone is busy guessing where the bottom is, but institutions are not panicking at all. I dug into yesterday's ETF data and saw a very unusual signal
First, look at BTC: there was a net outflow of 31.44 million yesterday, BlackRock sold 13.34 million, and Fidelity sold 18.36 million. They just added over 20 million the day before, then completely exited the next day. In other words, institutions were only testing the waters and immediately pulled back to observe after the CPI bearish news
Now look at ETH: net outflow was only 51,900, with Grayscale and BlackRock selling slightly, almost unchanged. The price dropped to 2315, and institutions neither bottom-fished nor dumped; they are all waiting and watching for direction
My view: institutions are not panicking or selling off; they are patiently waiting for opportunities. The selling pressure on ETH and SOL is already weakening. This drop is essentially a long liquidation by longs against longs. SOL's long-short ratio is still 2.68, meaning long positions haven't been fully cleared yet, and the chain reaction of liquidations is not over
I am still currently out of position. Bottom-fishing recklessly in this market is pure luck. I will wait until the liquidation is mostly done and the market truly stabilizes before taking action on $ETH
Key support levels to note: BTC 80000 / 78000, ETH 2300 / 2200, SOL 100 / 95$SNDK 这波空单吃到撑，1378%浮盈背后是75倍在走钢丝。宏观那边美债收益率飙着，加密ETF天天净流出，大盘都不行小币更没戏。长鑫G5量产的消息一出来，海外存储垄断的逻辑开始动摇，闪迪高位补跌，链上这标的跟着阴跌根本刹不住。
盘面看1594空到1301，均线全死叉，反抽碰中轨就往下掉。1300这个整数关口多空在磨，破了下面真没啥买盘挡着。量能也是跌的时候放、弹的时候缩，典型的出货结构。巨鲸这边也是各怀鬼胎，有人接有人砸。
我现在操作很粗暴：平了大半锁利润，止损推到开仓价。剩的仓位让子弹飞，放量涨回1594就跑。75倍到这种位置，宁可少赚不挨揍，低位一根大阳线能把你半个月利润洗没。$ZEC $BTC #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？