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Money votes with its feet
Three signals from the funding side, none showing any favor. First, the funding rate: on 10/13 it was still +0.0062% long position fee, turned negative on 10/14, and today has slid to -0.0041%—shorts have started to consistently collect rent, the sentiment steering wheel has turned. Second, on the open interest side: today saw a net outflow of $86.91 million, total market contract open interest shrank back to $7.6 billion; over 7 days, the cumulative net inflow is only about $3 million, all the positions added during the rise were paid back during the fall, meaning a whole week of effort was wasted. Third, the US stock $BTC ETF net outflow in October has exceeded $450 million, just last week alone $679 million, about eight thousand coins, were withdrawn; the $65.4 million outflow on 10/12 came entirely from IBIT under BlackRock—if even BlackRock is pulling out, bulls still trying to bottom-fish here should first ask who is carrying their sedan chair. Oh, the seller is still shouting on TV that the bear market is over and $100,000 is back. Calls are free, withdrawals are real money, the market has already answered with the candlesticks. I just came across a post that made me feel a bit amused yet somewhat bittersweet. Have you ever had that feeling: your mainstream coins are all in the red, while altcoins seem forgotten in the corner? A friend shared his positions—BTC and ETH both showing floating profits, but DOGE and PEPE have been red all the way down. He joked that he treated the junk coins like lottery tickets, luckily with a light position. This statement is actually more worth pondering than the losses themselves. The market has a very smooth logical loop for junk coins. When BTC rises, it means funds feed the mainstream first, altcoins get drained, so their drop is expected. When BTC is sideways, funds are cautious, no one dares to move, altcoins have no support, so their drop is also normal. When BTC falls, panic selling hits junk coins first, altcoins fall even harder, which is still normal. Each statement sounds right, but combined they mean: regardless of rising, falling, or sideways, altcoins can't find their own reason to rise. Behind this is not just simple sector rotation, but an issue of emotional pricing power. When the market only wants to give a premium to BTC and ETH, risk appetite doesn't truly spread out. It's not that funds don't see altcoins, they see them but are unwilling to bear that uncertainty. Tokens like DOGE and PEPE rely on attention, sentiment, and marginal buying. Once these three contract simultaneously, the rebound becomes very light and short-lived. There is also a more bullish path: if BTC stabilizes and slowly raises its lows, ETH starts to follow, then the market will give altcoins some room to test and err again. At that time, the first to move are usually not the worst junk coins, but those with communities, liquidity, and narratives. Junk coin rebounds usually lag and are highly dependent on大盘集体吃面，ZK却偷偷拉了15个点，V神这碗"奶"有多少含金量？
今天整个加密市场还在给CPI还债，总市值掉约3.4%，比特币也趴在8万附近喘气，结果涨幅榜榜首被ZK（ZKsync）占了：24小时从0.0148冲到0.0185，逆势+15%，相当割裂。
导火索是真新催化。V神今天在X上公开给zkSync的Airbender团队道贺，说zkEVM的"速度之战已经彻底打赢"，下一步重心该全部转向安全性。这个Airbender Prime在一张Blackwell显卡上、对7200个主网区块做到99%在10秒内出证，叙事确实硬。
我的读法：这是典型的"技术里程碑+龙头点名"情绪脉冲，前两天还有创始人提议回购的铺垫，资金借势做一把合情合理。但得清醒，它24小时成交额才200多万刀、市值不到2亿美金，RSI已75、价格顶破布林上轨，盘子不大易拉易砸，这种量能追高容错率很低。
盯两个信号：能不能放量站稳0.018这道上轨而不是冲高回落；以及"转向安全"后ZK系有没有后续验证进展，光靠一条推文的热度往往撑不久。DYOR，非投资建议。
#ZK #ZKsync #Layer2$ETH CPI数据落地，整体通胀超预期，核心通胀同步走高，美联储那个“仅靠能源涨价”的借口彻底被撕碎了。市场应声大跌，下一步走势该怎么看？
数据出来后大饼 $BTC 直接跌破8.2万，ETF资金本来就在往外跑，现在宏观预期一收紧，买盘更不敢进来了。如果今天守不住8万，下面就是7万8。
以太 $ETH 最惨，它本来就是三个里最弱的，ETF持续失血，质押收益又跑不过美债，机构在下面根本不接盘。大饼一软它跌得最狠，今天又是持续下跌，估计短时间很难企稳。
黄金 $XAUT 也大跌，现货金跌了将近2个点。核心通胀超预期推高了实际利率，美元和美债收益率一起往上顶，不生息的黄金短期只能挨捶。但黄金今天迅速反弹，因为ETF配置盘还在持续流入，央行也没停手。
它跟大饼最大的区别在于，大饼的接盘方是链上巨鲸，黄金的接盘方是央行和主权基金。后者的资金属性和耐心，完全不在一个量级。 大饼和以太现货底仓拿稳，短线杠杆全卸。黄金短期承压，但底子比大饼硬。$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 💸资金坦白局：谁在真买，谁在假嗨？
$BTC ：合约24h净流入1.94亿，现货+4470万，短线双绿。但别急着开香槟——周线-28亿，月线-53亿，12h还-1.02亿。这1.94亿是最近几小时才回的血，更像超跌反弹的试探，不是反转号角。🩹
$ETH ：精神分裂现场。合约+5755万，现货-1.1亿。杠杆客赌反弹，持币者继续跑。两边打架，大资金没共识。现货若持续卖，合约早晚被拖下水。⚔️
$SOL ：合约-1.62万，约等于躺平；现货+3339万。有人悄悄囤，没人敢上杠杆。周线现货+2006万，主流里唯一转正。定投逻辑＞合约博弈。🌱
串起来：BTC试探回流，ETH多空互撕，SOL现货偷买。三种病，一个共同点——周线月线全在失血，大钱仍谨慎。大饼虽强，但资金只是探头，不是All in。🚨
总结：反弹可以看，反转别急喊。钱在试水温，不是跳泳池。🧊#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 TSMC's Q3 revenue hit a record high of 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year surge of 50%, setting a historic peak. The full earnings report and briefing at 14:00 today will focus mainly on profit and gross margin.
But don't just focus on TSMC; this AI chip frenzy is actually tightly linked with our crypto circle.
Recently, when semiconductors sneeze, Bitcoin catches a cold. Micron and SK Hynix fell, BTC slid directly from 83,000 to 81,600, and ETH dropped nearly 4%. Simply put, the money behind AI hype and crypto trading is the same group—when risk appetite tightens, tech stocks and crypto assets get hammered together.
TSMC's guidance tonight is essentially a "thermometer" for AI market sentiment. If the gross margin hits the 67% ceiling, it means computing demand is still burning hot, signaling a warm sentiment for crypto; conversely, if the guidance is conservative, funds may continue to withdraw from high-risk assets.
Keep an eye on 14:00; TSMC's earnings briefing could be the prelude to tonight's BTC direction choice. $BTC $xTSEM #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed TSMC delivers an impressive "half report card": Q3 revenue approximately NT$1.494 trillion, up 50.9% year-over-year and 17.6% quarter-over-quarter, setting a single-quarter record; September monthly revenue reached NT$511.857 billion, soaring 54.6% year-over-year. The numbers are explosive, but this is on the revenue side; profit details will be disclosed at the October 15 earnings call.
The record revenue is understandable, fundamentally driven by three combined forces: Nvidia, AMD, and other AI chips fully occupying advanced process capacity, with CoWoS packaging still a bottleneck; Apple's new A/M series supporting the high-end consumer segment; 2nm moving from trial production to mass production, starting to contribute to revenue. In short, customers are not bargaining over price but competing for capacity.
However, profit is the real test. The company’s own Q3 gross margin guidance is only 65%–67%, lower than Q2’s 67.7%. The reason is straightforward: early depreciation and yield costs during 2nm ramp-up dilute margins by about 3–4 percentage points; overseas plants in the US and Japan have higher costs, diluting margins by 2–4 percentage points long-term. So the market is really watching three numbers: whether the gross margin can hold at 65%, whether Q4 guidance will increase quarter-over-quarter, and the capital expenditure outlook for 2027.Today's breadth data is painful: Among 283 coins in USDT perpetual contracts, only 19 are rising, with a median of -7.32%. $BTC fell 2.74%, seemingly "resistant to falling," but actually it's just falling slower, not not falling.
My three actions today:
1. No adding positions. In a market with a median of -7%, "cheaper because it fell" are the most expensive four words.
2. Cut leveraged positions first. Leverage amplifies the median decline; -7% multiplied by leverage is not a correction, it's an accident.
3. Watch ETH, not BTC. ETH fell 5.43%, SOL fell 3.98%—if the decline continues, altcoins and the main market have an order; the main market is just lagging.
The lesson is not that the market must fall, but that in a down market, "holding" and "being held" are two different things. I don't hate losing money; I hate not having control over my positions.
On days like today with a median of -7%, whose position will you cut first? Hold BTC, or look at the ETH in your hand first? $BTC $SLX
Not looking good, not looking good at all!
The institution incubating this project is about to enter liquidation, so what's the point of playing this game?
Solstice (the project issuing the SLX token) was incubated by **Deus X Capital**.
Deus X Capital founded Solstice Labs in 2024 and provided it with funding and resource support; it is one of the projects incubated under its umbrella.
Currently, this institution has announced it will shut down and enter liquidation (planned to be completed by January 2027), but the SLX project itself was still incubated by it.
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What this institution does:
Deus X Capital is a crypto and fintech investment company supported by a family office, classified as an institutional investor. It was established in 2023, manages about $1 billion in assets, and its main businesses include investment, project incubation, and related operations. It is considered a relatively legitimate professional institution in the crypto field.There are some reasons to hold, so let's ask again
If the reason to buy $PEPE is to wait for sentiment to return, I think we should admit that our judgment is about market attention.
You can't say it's popular when it doesn't rise, then suddenly change your tune when it falls, saying you should hold it as a long-term project.
I'm more concerned about whether trading can remain active after the hype dies down.
If more and more people are discussing it but the price still can't push up, don't rush to explain it as having more room ahead. After all, there is real money between attention and buying.
For $SUI, I watch out for an illusion: just because the project is progressing well, you think you don't need to watch the supply during the holding period.
It has a total cap of 10 billion tokens, but tokens are still gradually released as planned, so the circulating supply will change.
This doesn't mean that release necessarily causes a price drop, but with the same demand, the tradable quantity might differ.
Being optimistic about the ecosystem is one thing; deciding at what valuation to buy is another matter to consider separately.
For $AVAX, you need to be careful not to mistake staking rewards as price protection.
Its staking rewards come from new issuance, while network fees have a separate burn mechanism.
The number of coins increases, but the account value can still decline.
So I won't ignore whether the original buying reasons have changed just because it can generate yield. Rewards can be counted as income but can't answer why you still want to hold.CPI data has been released, overall inflation exceeded expectations, and core inflation rose simultaneously. The Fed's excuse of "only relying on energy price increases" has been completely torn apart. The market responded with a sharp drop; what should we expect next?
After the data came out, Bitcoin $BTC directly fell below 82,000. ETF funds were already flowing out, and now with tighter macro expectations, buyers dare not enter. If 80,000 doesn't hold today, the next support is 78,000.
Ethereum $ETH is the worst hit; it was already the weakest among the three. ETF continues to bleed, staking yields can't compete with U.S. Treasuries, and institutions are not stepping in at the bottom. When Bitcoin weakens, it falls the hardest. It continues to decline today, and it is estimated to be difficult to stabilize in the short term.
Gold $XAUt also fell sharply, with spot gold dropping nearly 2%. Core inflation exceeding expectations pushed up real interest rates, and both the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose together. Non-yielding gold can only take a hit in the short term. But gold quickly rebounded today because ETF allocation funds are still flowing in, and central banks have not stopped.
The biggest difference between it and Bitcoin is that Bitcoin's buyers are on-chain whales, while gold's buyers are central banks and sovereign funds. The capital attributes and patience of the latter are on a completely different level. Hold your Bitcoin and Ethereum spot positions firmly, and unload all short-term leverage. Gold is under short-term pressure but fundamentally stronger than Bitcoin. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 The US dollar surged. Bitcoin was dumped. The bet on rate hikes doubled.
September CPI is 3.7%, August was only 3.4%. Core is 2.6%, August was only 2.4%.
Both numbers are higher than expected.
The biggest increase was in gasoline, 9.1%. One person bears half the increase.
The first thing to break is not the coin.
It's the idea that "Bitcoin is only for risk speculation."
When I saw the gasoline number, my first reaction was to rush to fill up.
Then I found it was even more expensive than last week.
People are like that.
Alright, back to the main topic.
The Federal Reserve already raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, now at 3.75%–4.00%.
Will there be another one? The next meeting is October 27–28.
Before the CPI, the market was betting about 20% chance of a hike. When the data came out, it became 47%.
In one trading session, it doubled.
The two-year US Treasury yield is 4.872%, up 7 basis points that day. The dollar also rose.
Look clearly:
Bitcoin pays no interest.
The two-year US Treasury pays you 4.87%.
That's all there is to it.
Now comes the hardest part.
I have a bit of a bias, this round of decline is not the coin's fault at all, it's that everyone suddenly remembered interest rates.
So I wrote two consecutive articles about interest rates yesterday, because this is the key focus now.
A few days ago, those shouting "next stop 100,000" have all gone silent these past two days.
And people who usually don't follow financial news opened accounts for the first time this week, first checked deposit rates, and then never came back. #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed TSMC's Q3 revenue reached a historic high, mainly benefiting from the AI chip foundry boom. However, the market is more focused on profit quality: new process ramp-up and overseas factory construction have increased costs, raising doubts about whether the gross margin can hold at 65%-67% and if profits can match the revenue. Earlier AI expectations have been fully priced in, so funds chose to cash out before the earnings report, leading to a stock price pullback. #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus #TSMCOct15Earnings
TSMC's revenue record before October 15 had already been absorbed by the market. If we wait until the financial report day to see it as a positive surprise, the investment rhythm might have been delayed.
On October 8, the company had already announced September revenue data: a 54.6% year-over-year increase, and a slight 0.6% month-over-month decrease. This variance carries deep significance — the strong long-term growth trend does not necessarily mean every month must set a new record compared to the previous month. Minor monthly fluctuations are not enough to shake the big narrative of AI demand The market opened broadly in the red this morning 😵. The higher-than-expected CPI data caused a general pullback in the Crypto market. It's clear that it's being lumped into the same risk valuation framework as AI stocks. Sectors like RWA have dropped more than 6%. Ajian believes that what the market cares about now isn't $BTC or $ETH or any particular token, but rather interest rates, financing costs, and whether overvalued assets can hold up.
I've also emphasized before that in the current high-interest-rate economic environment, crypto asset valuations are walking a tightrope and are especially sensitive to market sentiment. Short-term funds love to target these kinds of assets first. If the token you hold long-term doesn't have enough income support, it's risky in this environment. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 The Dow fell 0.09%, almost unchanged; the Nasdaq dropped 1.88%. Two worlds in the same trading day.
Putting these two numbers together makes it clear: money hasn't left the US stock market; it has shifted from tech stocks to healthcare and consumer staples. The information technology sector fell 3% in a single day, while healthcare actually rose 2.4%. Eli Lilly and Merck rose by three to four points, a typical defensive rotation.
The root cause is still oil. In the past ten days or so, attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz have clearly increased. On October 11, daily crude oil passing through the strait was only about 2.9 million barrels, compared to over 20 million barrels a few days ago. Brent crude briefly rose above $106, gasoline prices increased by more than 30% year-over-year, and the September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, exceeding expectations. The 10-year US Treasury yield surged above 5.2%, the 2-year yield approached 4.9%, and New York Fed's Williams also said another rate hike this year makes sense.
Assets with high valuations fear this combination the most. Nvidia fell 3.2%, Meta dropped 3.3%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 10% in five days, and CoreWeave dropped 15% in one day.
I tend to believe that as long as oil prices remain above $100, any rebound in tech stocks can only be seen as a bounce. Today, we first look at TSMC's earnings report. If the AI demand story is strong enough, semiconductors may get a breather; if not, this round of adjustment may not be over. After that, the FOMC meeting on October 27-28 awaits.
The xdm tech position can be held for now, adding on dips. In this kind of market, less trading is better. The midterm elections are approaching, and major turning points may come for the US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts. #Saudi Aramco headquarters attacked, crude oil supply under focus This CPI move has dashed the previous optimistic expectations of "peak rate hikes." #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
In the short term, the macro trend is pulling downward. Rising rate hike expectations, increasing US Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar mean risk assets are generally struggling. BTC will not strengthen independently.
But in the medium term, there is long-term capital buying around 80,000. The ETF's single-day counter-trend inflow of 167 million is no lie. It shows that someone is willing to support at this level.
At this stage, the biggest taboo is trying to guess the bottom. Whether 80,000 can hold depends on upcoming PPI data and the FOMC meeting. Before the direction is clear, position sizing is more important than judgment. # Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus
Three key variables truly determine the ceiling of the advertising business
1. Whether advertising ARPU can catch up with subscription ARPU
Currently, the per-user revenue of ad-supported plans is still lower than that of ad-free plans. The gap may only narrow if advertiser budgets, programmatic buying, and live CPM increase.
2. Whether live and highly engaging content can be continuously supplied
Live content like NFL, WWE, MLB has higher ad monetization efficiency and can boost user engagement, but it is costly and concentrated in scheduling, requiring proof of sustainability.
3. Whether AI advertising systems can improve delivery efficiency
Netflix is advancing AI-driven ad planning, creative adaptation, audience insights, and data clean rooms, which relates to whether advertisers are willing to increase budgets long-term.
Investment Judgment
Netflix's advertising business is worth tracking, but one should not focus solely on the slogan of "doubling ad revenue." More importantly, watch: ad plan ARPU, advertiser retention, live ad fill rate, programmatic share, and whether profit margins are diluted by content costs.
If these indicators improve, the ad business will shift from a "story" to "cash flow"; if not, it will only continue to support valuation rather than become a performance inflection point. With the release of this CPI data, many people have actually realized that the previously repeated market narrative of "inflation easing, rate cuts by year-end" is not so certain.
Everyone had assumed that the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle was already over, so assets without interest like $BTC and $ETH could maintain their valuations in a high interest rate environment.
However, this time both CPI and core inflation exceeded expectations, which directly overturned that premise—the US Treasury yields surged, and now even holding risk-free US Treasuries can yield over 5%, so institutions naturally don't want to stay in volatile, cash-flow-free crypto; the continuous net outflows from ETFs are the most concrete evidence.
The chain of liquidations only accelerated the decline speed a bit; the real problem is that most of the current buyers are still old whales in the crypto space doing short-term trades, who won't hold for more than a few months before leaving.
In contrast, gold fell but quickly rebounded, supported by long-term allocations from central banks and sovereign wealth funds; they don't gamble on whether rates will rise next month. This kind of capital resilience is something the crypto space simply can't match right now.
Investment involves risks, and decisions should be made cautiously. The above analysis is only a market viewpoint sharing and does not constitute any investment advice.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 TSMC’s record revenue figures were already public before October 15, so presenting them as an unexpected positive surprise on earnings day may be missing the bigger picture.
On October 8, the company reported that September revenue increased 54.6% year-over-year but slipped 0.6% compared with August. This highlights an important distinction: strong annual growth doesn’t necessarily mean revenue will rise every month.
#TSMCOct15Earnings #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
Why so strong?
● Advanced process fully loaded: 3nm accounts for about 30% of wafer revenue, 5nm about 33%, and 7nm and below total 77%; 2nm is also starting to ramp up (about 11%), mainly benefiting from Apple's A20 Pro/M6 chips and AMD Venice server CPUs.
● Continuous investment in AI infrastructure: Next-generation AI processors like Nvidia Vera Rubin platform and AMD MI450X are queued up to compete for capacity, and CoWoS advanced packaging is also in short supply.
● Capital expenditure significantly increased: Full-year capital expenditure for 2026 has been raised from $52-56 billion to $60-64 billion, with 70-80% invested in advanced processes. #US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight Brothers, my personal analysis is that oil prices will surge to $100 before the midterm elections. First, let's talk about the US-Iran situation. Recently, Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, then the Houthi forces in Yemen attacked Iran, and Iran continues to stir up the Middle East situation. Iran's goal is very clear: to control oil as a powerful weapon. Excluding seasonal factors, global demand for oil is roughly the same every year, but now that Iran controls the oil, global demand cannot be met, which will definitely affect everyone's lives, and this impact will reflect on countries. To solve this problem, there must be US-Iran talks, but the US has no sincere intention to negotiate. Currently, the US is still trying to find solutions, but the root cause remains in the Middle East. So oil prices definitely won't come down anytime soon and may even hit previous highs because Iran will surely try to finalize the talks before the midterm elections. Otherwise, once the midterms are over, the "King" will definitely attack. So oil prices may not continue to rise, but they certainly won't fall.
Now about Russia and Ukraine, the war has lasted almost five years. Now, even if they want to stop, they can't. One side must admit defeat. If they wanted to negotiate, Russia and Ukraine would have done so earlier and wouldn't have fought this long. Ukraine definitely wants to negotiate, but Russia refuses. So Ukraine attacks Russia's energy facilities daily to pressure Russia through other energy-concerned countries. But Russia has no other strengths except stubbornness. So no one knows when oil prices will come down. This is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice $BTC #TSMCOct15Earnings TSMC's revenue record was already known to the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the day of the earnings report might be a step behind the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue grew 54.6% year-over-year but declined 0.6% month-over-month. This contrast is quite interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous oneFrom October 14 to 15, the crypto market experienced a sharp plunge. Bitcoin fell below $81,000, hitting an intraday low of about $80,500; Ethereum dropped below $2,400, once reaching approximately $2,317 on October 15, with a nearly 5% decline over the past week. Data from Coinglass shows that the total market liquidation exceeded $1.1 billion, with Ethereum long positions liquidated at about $330 million, the highest among all cryptocurrencies. Notably, this was not an isolated "crypto-only event." During the same period, the US Nasdaq index closed down about 1.9%, the S&P 500 fell about 1.1%, gold dropped below $4,100, silver plunged sharply, and South Korean memory chip giant stocks crashed suddenly. This time, crypto assets behaved more like "high beta assets" in the global synchronized deleveraging of risk assets. 2. Direct trigger: CPI exceeded expectations, renewed hawkish rate hike expectations Let's look at the data. The US September CPI released on October 14 showed a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, higher than the market expectation of 3.6% and above August's 3.4%, with a month-on-month rise of 0.6%. Core CPI excluding food and energy rose 2.6% year-on-year (expected 2.5%) and 0.3% month-on-month (expected 0.2%). Gasoline prices contributed more than half of the monthly increase, driven by rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions (Brent crude oil once rose to about $105). Why this CPI data is particularly critical. The key lies in the changed policy background: the Federal Reserve just completed its first rate hike of 2023 in September, and the market was previously debating "whether#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
What I find truly worth looking at in TSMC's earnings report is not how much revenue has increased, but how long the AI business can continue to thrive.
The Q3 revenue has been announced, reaching NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year growth of about 50%, hitting a new high. This figure indicates that demand for AI chips remains strong, but it also means the market had already set high expectations for today's earnings report.
Next, focus on three areas: first, the gross margin—whether it can remain stable under the pressure of expanding 2nm process capacity; second, CoWoS advanced packaging capacity—whether AI chip orders can continue to support growth; third, the demand outlook for Q4 and 2027.
My view is that the AI industry cannot be easily underestimated for now, but we also shouldn't blindly chase the stock just because of performance growth. TSMC's good performance only proves strong demand in the supply chain, not that all AI concept stocks are worth buying.
Especially now, the market is trading not just on current profits but also on growth expectations for the next few years. If the earnings beat expectations but management does not provide stronger signals for future growth, the stock price may still surge and then fall back.
Tonight, I am more focused on management's statements about future orders and capital expenditures. What truly determines how far the AI market can go is not how much money is made today, but whether it can continue to exceed expectations next year.
What do you think? Will this TSMC earnings report continue to fuel the AI market, or is it a case of good news being priced in and funds taking the opportunity to exit? #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits New High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed The market already knew about TSMC's revenue record before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the earnings day might be a bit late in the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue grew 54.6% year-over-year but declined 0.6% month-over-month. This contrast is quite interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous one. Small monthly fluctuations are also insufficient to conclude the overall AI demand.
After the monthly revenue was disclosed in advance, the focus of the earnings report should shift forward. How the next quarter's orders are arranged, which demands can be sustained, and whether customers are pulling orders ahead are more informative than repeating the already public total figures.
In the conference call, I especially want to hear about the timing distribution of orders. If customers place orders early to lock in supply, and the subsequent demand expands in sync with actual usage, the implications for the next few quarters are different. It is still unclear which situation applies. This question is worth keeping.
Being optimistic about TSMC doesn't mean expecting only good news at every step. Strong companies also face changes in order rhythms. What really makes me cautious is that people increasingly need bigger growth numbers to be satisfied, yet no one asks what can still exceed expectations next quarter. For this earnings report, I want to hear more about follow-up arrangements and less about celebrating the existing records.
#TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits New High, What Other Highlights Are There in the October 15 Earnings Report? Today the overall market remains weak and volatile, with mainstream coins under pressure, but a few small and mid-cap coins have developed independent trends, which is quite interesting.
The most obvious is $WAL, a decentralized storage project in the Sui ecosystem. Its 24-hour trading volume and price increase are both very strong, showing clear signs of concentrated capital inflow, mainly driven by the narrative of AI data infrastructure. However, there is still unlocking pressure ahead. Currently, it is more a result of narrative-driven and concentrated trading rather than real demand validation. A sharp rise and a sound logic are two different things...
There is also capital movement in other directions. Tokens related to AI Agents like Quack AI (Q) continue to attract attention. Bitway (BTW), with a relatively large market cap, also appears on the heat charts. Directions like storage, AI, and privacy, including tokens like ZEC and STRK, have decent weekly performance, showing localized heat.
Overall, today is a case of structural hotspots rather than broad resonance. When the market is weak, capital tends to concentrate on targets with narratives and trading volume, but sentiment fades quickly and pullbacks happen fast. For $WAL, the key going forward is whether trading volume can be maintained and product progress can keep up, not just focusing on single-day gains.
The above is purely market observation and personal judgment, not investment advice. The market changes quickly, so partners should do their own research.I just checked the long-short ratio of BTC perpetual contracts on OKX, which is 1.8 now, while it was around 1.25 a day ago.
The price dropped more than 3% in one day, but the number of long positions actually increased as the price fell. At first, I thought big players were accumulating at the bottom. However, when I looked at the top 5% segment, the numbers didn’t add up: the long-short ratio by headcount is 1.23, but by position size it’s only 0.94. So there are more people going long, but the money is slightly more on the short side.
Therefore, the main buyers catching the falling knife are small accounts; the big players haven’t shifted their positions to the long side. If the top 5% position ratio goes above 1 in the next couple of days, then I’ll admit I was wrong.
Do you usually watch the ratio by number of people or by position size?
$BTC The $MON chain is a good public chain with excellent engineering capabilities, capable of running large-scale DAPPs without issues. However, it lacks distinctiveness and proprietary new technologies. It still mainly relies on the usual EVM+ optimized model. Given the current intense competition among public chains, with strong technical innovations like NEAR's Nightshade sharding, Sui's Move language object model, and AvAX's subchain architecture, $MON appears quite ordinary.Can Alpenglow make Solana's final confirmation nearly 99% faster? Three things to verify on October 21
Solana is scheduled to activate Alpenglow on October 21, replacing the TowerBFT consensus mechanism. The official goal is to reduce the final confirmation time from about 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds.
But investors shouldn't just look at this number; what really matters to observe are:
① Actual confirmation speed
150 milliseconds is currently still a technical target; after the upgrade, it remains to be seen if the mainnet can stably approach this expectation.
② Whether validator migration goes smoothly
Validators need to use clients based on Agave 4.3.0. For a major consensus mechanism switch, network stability is key.
③ How on-chain data is interpreted
Alpenglow moves validator voting out of regular transaction records, which may structurally reduce TPS and transaction counts, but this does not mean real user demand has decreased.
Additionally, on October 21, the first component to be introduced is Votor; the Rotor data propagation upgrade is still a subsequent phase.
My judgment is that Alpenglow has important technical significance, but the final effectiveness must be proven by mainnet testing. If the upgrade is delayed, the network is unstable, or confirmation speed does not meet expectations, the market's original optimistic outlook will need to be reassessed.
Technical specifications are goals; mainnet validation is the evidence.
#Solana mainnet speedup, will node thresholds rise? $SOL $BTC fell 3.27% in 24 hours, dropping from 84,117.6 to 80,188 before rebounding to 80,908. During this period, the bulls suffered more losses: long position liquidations totaled $84.79 million, while shorts only liquidated $33.67 million. I am bearish. The funding rates for the last three periods were 0.0015%, -0.0018%, and -0.0041%, becoming increasingly negative, indicating that shorts are willing to pay to hold positions. This structure usually leads to further price declines. Options trading shows a put/call ratio of 1.05, higher than the open interest ratio of 0.91, with new orders leaning towards buying protection. DVOL at 38.8 is not high; if PPI turns hotter, volatility has room to expand. Contract open interest remains at $7.48 billion, leverage has not been fully cleaned out, and if macro pressure increases, longs will be liquidated further. The expectation is for the price to first break below 80,188. Conditions for a bullish reversal: price must reclaim 84,117.6, and funding rates return to positive. If PPI cools down, the macro pressure will ease, and the main factor will be leverage unwinding itself, which will have a much smaller impact.#TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed TSMC's third-quarter revenue reached a new high, shifting market focus to profitability: whether AI chip demand can continue to support high gross margins, and whether cost pressures from advanced process capacity expansion will affect profit growth.
For investors, revenue growth is only the first signal. More importantly, whether profit growth can keep pace and management's outlook on AI demand and capital expenditure for Q4.
If profit margins remain resilient, it indicates TSMC has not only secured AI orders but also retained strong pricing power; otherwise, even with record revenue, the market may reassess its valuation.
TSMC's financial report is actually an important window to observe the global AI industry chain's prosperity.
An important timing note: as of the screenshot time 12:15 Beijing time, TSMC's full Q3 financial report has not yet been released; the earnings call will be held today at 14:00. It is confirmed that Q3 revenue is about NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year increase of about 50%; the market expects net profit may also hit a record, but this remains a forecast.
Therefore, using "profit performance yet to be revealed" in this post is accurate, and it is inappropriate to prematurely state "net profit has already hit a new high." $CRWV dropped more than 16% today and has plummeted over 50% in the past 5 months.
The reason is its debt. CoreWeave owes about $35 billion in debt and paid $640 million in interest just last quarter. Investors are now starting to sell off this debt. Its 2032 bonds have fallen more than 23% since June.
Bond trading prices are so depressed that they are considered distressed.
Due to the price drop, anyone buying these bonds now can earn over 15% annually. Therefore, 15% is now the cost CoreWeave must pay to borrow money.
This is a big problem because it plans to spend $35 billion to $39 billion this year but only has $5.5 billion in cash. It must keep borrowing to maintain construction.
Credit default swaps that investors use to hedge default risk now price CoreWeave’s probability of default within 5 years at 58%.#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 The US September CPI rose year-on-year to 3.7%, higher than August's 3.4%; month-on-month it increased by 0.6%. Core CPI rose year-on-year to 2.6%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%. Rising energy prices are the main driver, but core inflation remains sticky, indicating that inflationary pressure cannot be simply attributed to oil price fluctuations.
This data puts the Federal Reserve in a more difficult balancing act: employment growth has clearly cooled, yet inflation is rising again. Market concerns about further rate hikes are intensifying, the direction of pressure on the dollar and US Treasury yields has also changed, and the valuation space for risk assets is being tested.
Tonight, the US September PPI will also be released at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, which is 8:30 PM Beijing Time. Whether producer prices cool down simultaneously will help the market judge if cost pressures continue to transmit to the consumer side.
For BTC, the current worst-case scenario is rising inflation, increasing rate expectations, and cooling employment simultaneously. If PPI continues to exceed expectations, the market may further lower easing expectations; if producer-side pressure eases, there is a chance to mitigate the impact brought by CPI. The key tonight is not just the data level, but whether inflation is spreading. $BTC Core DAO proactively withdrawing its validator nodes can be interpreted in two completely different ways: whether it voluntarily delinks and exits the validator set or is just a temporary shutdown. 1. The ideal interpretation: Decentralization (positive narrative) The Core network has only 31 active validator nodes in total. - The foundation proactively exits its its official validator nodes, no longer monopolizing validator seats, and hands over block production rights to third-party community validators. - This means the project team no longer controls the network, weakening the foundation's control over the chain, aligning with the goal of decentralization of public chains. - This is a routine practice for many public chains in the later stages and does not mean the chain is about to run away. But here's a key point: although official nodes exit, if a large number of staking orders remain concentrated in the hands of a few top validators, the network remains highly centralized, with control simply transferred from the project team to a few large players. 2. Negative Signals to Watch Out For (Market Concern) If the core official validator node suddenly withdraws without prior announcement, the market generally interprets it as the following issues. 1. Project team operations and maintenance contraction and budget cuts Running validator nodes requires ongoing server and operational labor costs. - Token prices remain sluggish, ecosystem revenue falls short of expectations, teams cut expenses and no longer bear validator costs. - This indicates that project teams are unwilling to continue investing in maintaining this chain, signaling weakening fundamentals. 2. Lack of team confidence $BTC
The options desk has already laid down a protective cushion below 80000.
Deribit options data shows that for contracts expiring on October 16, put option open interest is concentrated in the 76000 to 80000 strike price range, indicating that funds are using options to hedge downside risk in advance. Currently, BTC OKX spot is 80898.8, DOGE OKX spot is 0.07967.
The fact is that the derivatives market is clearly increasing tail risk prevention before tomorrow's settlement. I judge that before the October 16 options settlement, if tonight's US retail sales data is strong, BTC is very likely to break down below 80000 to test the dense put option zone between 78000 and 79500. The highly elastic DOGE will also simultaneously dip to 0.075. If BTC consistently holds above 80000 and rebounds to above 82200 before settlement, then the expectation of testing the dense put option zone will not hold.
$BTC
$DOGE
#BTC rallies then falls back, options expiry amplifies key level battles #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed
TSMC Q3: Revenue is no longer a question, the real focus is on three things
Q3 revenue is about 1.49 trillion TWD, a year-on-year increase of about 50%. This figure has been gradually disclosed in monthly reports and is likely already reflected in the stock price. At today's earnings call, I am watching three areas:
1️⃣ Q4 revenue guidance: After revenue surged due to AI orders, the market wants to know "can it continue?" If the guidance just meets expectations, there might be profit-taking and a stock price pullback; only a clear upward revision will provide new momentum for a rise.
2️⃣ Whether capital expenditure is raised: An increase in capital expenditure indicates TSMC is more optimistic about AI demand than the market, which is a positive signal for the entire AI chain (NVIDIA, equipment stocks).
3️⃣ Gross margin: High revenue growth does not mean profits grow equally. Overseas factory costs and exchange rates will pressure gross margin. Watch if it can maintain a high level. The market expects Q3 net profit to be about 746.3 billion TWD; how much the actual figure deviates from this expectation will determine tonight's market sentiment.
My approach: The stock price has already pulled back over 2% before the earnings report, indicating market divergence. I won't heavily bet on direction before the report; I'll start with a small position and then increase or cut losses after Q4 guidance is released.
Do you think Q4 guidance can beat expectations? Let's discuss in the comments 👇
This is just my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. #TSMCOct15Earnings The US expands production, is Texas the next destination? Arizona has invested $265 billion. Last week Elon Musk announced his company will build the Terafab AI chip industrial park, TSMC may rent part of the factory
Will the gross margin hold? The forecast for Q3 gross margin is 65%-67%, but overseas factory costs are over 30% higher than in Taiwan, depreciation pressure starts to show from the second half of the year, Citi and JPMorgan forecast a 2-3 percentage point dilutionCPI Data Review: $BTC /$ETH Short-term Trend Analysis
The comprehensive weakening of the US CPI data in September was the core trigger for this round of crypto market correction. The overall CPI month-on-month rose by +0.6%, meeting expectations, but the year-on-year figure at 3.7% exceeded the expected 3.6%; core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, both surpassing market expectations. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
After the data release, market expectations for rate hikes surged sharply, with the probability of a rate hike in October doubling to 44%-49%, and the probability before year-end exceeding 95%. US Treasury yields and the US dollar index rose simultaneously, US stocks plunged, and the crypto market was passively pressured.
$BTC daily chart shows slight resistance to decline, falling from 83,430 to 81,784, losing the 20-day moving average and breaking below several medium- and long-term moving averages, indicating weakening technical patterns. The key support is at 81,603; holding this level maintains a wide oscillation between 80,300-84,000;
A breakdown would target 80,365 and 78,003. The funding side has slight support, with a net inflow of 175.7 million in spot ETFs on 10/13, recovering from the previous day's outflow, but the earlier large gap has not yet been filled. Intraday range is 80,800-83,000.
$ETH continues its weakness, with significantly higher leverage risk; perpetual open interest market value accounts for 15.3%, three times that of BTC, and long positions have not been fully cleared. The short-term critical level is 2,400; breaking below targets 2,330 and 2,250, while holding above 2,500 is necessary for recovery conditions.$BTC fell 2.09% last night, Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.02%, Dow Jones only fell 0.09%, a difference of twenty-two times. This gap is the market's answer after the September CPI release.
The September CPI was announced last night at 8:30 PM (Beijing time). It’s not about waiting anymore; it’s already priced in. Overall year-on-year is 3.7%, core year-on-year is 2.6%, both surpassing expectations and previous values, exceeding forecasts. The main drivers were energy month-on-month up 5.2% and gasoline month-on-month up 9.1%. This single oil price component contributed more than half of the increase.
Once the data came out, the market immediately repriced. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in October jumped from 21.6% to 43.7%. The dollar strengthened, U.S. Treasury yields surged, and U.S. stock futures turned negative. Money didn’t withdraw from the overall stock market but pulled out from the most rate-sensitive segment.
This is where crypto stands. $BTC’s drop last night was almost the same number as the Nasdaq’s. It is priced as a long-duration, high-valuation asset, so gold rose while $BTC fell. The notion of digital gold doesn’t hold up during this period.
Gold has a subtle point: at the moment CPI was released, it was hammered below 4100, but this morning it rebounded to 4,139.23, up 0.83%. Its safe-haven attribute outweighed the inflation negative impact, but $BTC didn’t get this treatment. On the same night, $ETH fell 3.33%, $SOL fell 2.74%, still high-beta assets.
Brothers, first see which type of asset your money is treated as, then watch the rise and fall 🍌#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 TSMC's Q3 revenue surged to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a 50% year-on-year increase. Looking at this data alone, it's indeed impressive; the chip demand driven by AI has all landed on this one company. But why is the market waiting for the earnings report and hesitant to draw conclusions early? Because strong revenue only means goods were sold, it doesn't guarantee stable profits. TSMC currently holds orders from Apple and Nvidia, but the costs of global expansion are visibly rising. Labor and infrastructure costs for the US factory, depreciation in Japan and Europe, plus the continuously increasing electricity bills over recent years, are all squeezing profit margins. Moreover, looking at the details, September's monthly revenue already showed signs of slowing down sequentially. After maxing out capacity, no one is confident about how long the growth rate can be maintained. Broadening the perspective, TSMC is more like a barometer for the entire AI industry chain. If its gross margin and next quarter guidance fluctuate, a large group of tech companies telling AI stories afterward will face direct valuation pressure. What everyone is focusing on now is no longer how much was sold in the past three months, but how much net profit remains after deducting costs.ASML's €11.662B Q3 revenue and 57.5% gross margin show that leading-edge equipment demand is already translating into strong operating leverage. Interest in 2029-2030 purchases suggests customers are planning beyond the current AI cycle, though those discussions are not firm orders.
Exploring more 2028 capacity could support earnings durability, but execution and order conversion remain the test.
#ASMLQ3RevenueRecord The Fear and Greed Index rose from 57 back to 62, first dropping 12 points and then rising 5 points within a week. However, at the same time, U.S. spot ETFs are still experiencing net outflows. Is the warming sentiment a sign of a rebound, or just another premature rush? Let's start with the news. Three sets of numbers together: On the sentiment side, the Fear and Greed Index increased from 57 to 62 (previous value 57); on the capital side, U.S. spot ETFs have had net outflows of about $768.9 million over the last 5 trading days, with a cumulative outflow of $621.2 million over 10 days, though the latest single-day outflow has narrowed to $68.6 million; on the price side, BTC is at $83,353.6, down 0.09% in 24 hours and down 0.13% over the past week, basically flat. Now looking at the impact of capital. The sentiment index is composed of momentum, volatility, social media heat, and search trends, reflecting "attention and short-term momentum"; while ETF net inflows reflect "whether money has actually returned." When sentiment warms first but capital has not yet turned positive, the most common structure is a premature rebound: short-term funds move first, while allocation funds remain cautious. This structure is characterized by a quick rebound but is easily sold back at key levels—because the volume of funds driving the rise is insufficient. Implications for BTC: this is not a reliable bottom signal, but it should not be ignored either. The sentiment rising from 57 to 62 indicates that extreme pessimism has not formed and the market still has willingness to support; and the narrowing of single-day outflows suggests that the heaviest selling pressure may be over. Together, these point to a conclusion: it is more likely a repair within a range-bound market rather than a new trend up—unless the capital flow channel turns to continuous net inflows. I continueBig Brother Maji's position exposure! A tug of war between longs and shorts, with profits and losses polarizing
Latest position screenshot leaked, total position size 60,123,500, a set of long-short hedging combinations, one side floating profit while the other under pressure, bold trading ideas sparking extensive discussion.
✅ Complete breakdown of three positions
① BTC｜40X full position
Direction: Short
Quantity: -243.96 BTC, valued at 19,728,700
Opening price 84070.0, unrealized P&L +781,400, funding fee +65,500
Margin 493,200, liquidation price 105590.43
② ETH｜25X full position
Direction: Long
Quantity: 8222.28 ETH, valued at 19,374,200
Opening price 2507.67, unrealized P&L -1,244,700, funding fee -18,500
Margin 775,000, liquidation price 1598.4
③ HYPE｜5X full position
Direction: Short
Quantity: -268,300 HYPE, valued at 21,020,700
Opening price 66.2399, unrealized P&L -3,248,600, funding fee +1,043,600
Margin 4,204,100, liquidation price 99.04If ETH is only about thirty dollars away from liquidation, then what we really should be watching in this wave is not whether Maji will be liquidated, but rather who the money prefers to stay with. Will you follow the high leverage to buy the dip, or first see which side the funds favor? When I first saw this position, I was stunned: 25x leverage, 13,650 ETH, average price 2545.84, liquidation price 2481.40, current price about 2513, only 32 dollars in between. It's like dancing on a tightrope, but I don't think this can be directly taken as a panic signal, nor does it mean the other party has no other hedging arrangements. What I care more about is another thing: how the fund preference is choosing. Data snapshot: - ETH: 25x long, 13,650 ETH, average opening price about 2545.84, liquidation price about 2481.40, current price about 2513 - BTC: 80,000 is the key defense line; if it holds and returns to the 82,000 to 83,000 range, the repair space will open - Sentiment: liquidation rumors are eye-catching, but we can't see the other party's complete fund arrangements, nor whether there are hedging accounts First, look at momentum signals. If BTC holds 80,000 and climbs back to 82,000 to 83,000, this ETH position will have a breathing window, and risk appetite for mainstream assets will warm up first. ETH, as a high-beta asset, usually rebounds faster than BTC. At this time, funds prefer the more certain mainstream assets; altcoins may not immediately follow. Then look at risk signals. If 80,000 is effectively broken, buying pressure will be significantly#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profitability performance yet to be revealed.
There is an item in the Q2 report that is easy to overlook: the disposal and fair value measurement of Vanguard International Semiconductor shares brought about approximately NT$63.2 billion in gains. This is investment-related income, different in origin from the continuous wafer production earnings. It can reasonably be included in the quarterly report but should not be assumed to occur every quarter.
With the earnings report releasing this afternoon, I want to separate operating profit from non-operating items first. If the core business continues to improve while investment income declines, net profit growth may not look as impressive; conversely, if net profit looks particularly good, it’s necessary to verify whether there are new non-core contributions. Without clarifying this, using the quarter-on-quarter EPS change to evaluate the strength of AI orders can easily lead to misinterpretation of the cause.
The market has high expectations for TSMC, so it’s even more important to clearly explain where each profit comes from. The chip manufacturing capability can justify long-term valuation, but a one-time gain from stock disposal should be understood according to its true nature.
There is no problem with this gain. The issue arises when readers treat it as recurring quarterly income.
I don’t want to see everyone just shouting “beat expectations” or “missed expectations” again as soon as the earnings report comes out. Revenue has already hit a new high; the more useful question going forward is: excluding those items that may not repeat, how well is the core business really doing? If there was extra income last quarter, the comparison base needs adjustment—don’t let one investment gain distort the entire industry’s picture One sentence for the crypto circle: Don't heavily bet on AI-themed coins ahead of earnings reports. TSMC is a sentiment booster, not the main BTC storyline; the market still focuses on US Treasury yields and ETF fund flows. On Thursday morning, will you be waiting for the speech or waking up to see the results?
$BTC
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a record high, profitability performance to be revealed Up 54% in four weeks, leaving Bitcoin and Ethereum behind in the same period—what's driving Sui's surge? Three solid developments: Bitwise has brought its institution-focused RWA vault to Sui, targeting net returns over 10%; Samsung announced Galaxy devices now support USDC and integrate Sui capabilities; on-chain DeFi locked value grew 15.5% in four weeks, peaking at about $1.21 billion. But some cold water: locked value dropped 5.2% in the past week, on-chain activity is cooling; plus, circulating supply is only 41% of total, with nearly 60% still locked and pending release. Current price is near $1, about 78% below the all-time high of $5.35. Support first looks at the $1 whole number level; if it can't hold above $1.15, the rebound can't be considered strong. Do you think this round for Sui is real institutional money or just another wave of sentiment? Share your judgment in the comments. This is just data analysis and does not constitute investment advice.#US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight