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🔥Big Brother Maji causing trouble again? $ETH
Cutting HYPE positions but stubbornly holding ETH, this defense is basically no defense!
Wow, Big Brother Maji just calmed down for two days and started stirring again. He cleared out his HYPE longs and casually cut a few hundred ETH, but this "position reduction for risk avoidance" looks like a futile struggle! 😂
💡 Account breakdown: going all in face-to-face
Lone ETH bet: fully invested with 2725 ETH (worth 6.14 million U), still leveraged 25x.
Liquidation price too close: entry average price 2263, liquidation price 2227! Current price is less than $40 from liquidation, safety cushion is paper-thin. Any sudden dip and these millions will have to be "accounted for" again.
Double loss: a floating loss of 20,000 U is minor, but daily funding fees cost 6,000 U. No rebound, profits wiped out and still paying "toll fees," really losing big.
Calling it defense is just shooting all bullets and leaving only bayonets to fight. This is not risk avoidance; it's clearly betting that there won't be a short-term dip! Once Bitcoin pulls back and drags ETH down, Big Brother will likely have to put on another "stubborn hold show."
⚠️ Reminder: The big players are playing with their nerves, we just watch the show.Based on pre-election polls and mainstream analysis, the forecast conclusion is: the Democratic Party has a higher probability of regaining control of the House of Representatives, while the Senate's outcome is highly uncertain. The Republican Party faces the risk of losing both chambers, but it is not a foregone conclusion. 🏛️ House of Representatives: Clear advantage for the Democrats Multiple nonpartisan election agencies and mainstream polls indicate that the Democrats will take the House. · Seat gap: The Republicans currently hold a narrow lead of 218 to 214, and the Democrats only need a net gain of 3 to 4 seats to flip control. · Poll support: Institutions like Cook Political Report expect the Democrats to gain 12 to 30 seats, far exceeding the required threshold. CNN's aggregated popular vote polls show the Democrats leading by about 9 percentage points. ⚖️ Senate: Outcome uncertain, with many variables The Senate is the biggest suspense in this election. The Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to reach 51 seats to control the chamber (considering the Vice President can break a 50-50 tie). · Key battlegrounds: North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, and other states have tight races. Some traditionally "deep red" states (such as Texas, Kansas, Iowa) have unexpectedly become competitive due to candidate scandals or dissatisfaction among agricultural voters. · Republican advantage: Of the 35 seats up for election, Republicans hold 22 and Democrats 13, giving Republicans a slight "incumbency advantage" on defense. But if Democrats hold all their seats and successfully flip 4 Republican seats, they can take control. 📉 Core factors driving the election dynamics The buying power of treasury companies for BTC dropped by 85.2% in one week.
According to cryptocurrency stock data on November 3, the net Bitcoin purchases by listed companies plummeted 85.2% week-over-week last week, with incremental buying from crypto treasury companies clearly retreating. Meanwhile, Bitmine's holdings have surpassed 6.06 million ETH, approaching the 5% hard cap on Ethereum holdings.
Two things point to the same trend: institutional buying is shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum, while overall incremental funds are contracting. The outlook for BTC is bearish; without the heavyweight support from treasury companies, prices rely more on ETFs and retail investors to carry the momentum, making short-term rallies more vulnerable to pullbacks. The outlook for ETH is bullish but with limited upside; Bitmine's continuous accumulation locks up circulating supply, reinforcing the supply-side tightness logic. However, the 5% hard cap means its future capacity to increase holdings is shrinking, so institutional marginal buying for ETH will decline.
This kind of treasury data is a slow variable, not a same-day price catalyst. Consider two scenarios: Scenario one, treasury net buying stops falling and rebounds, restoring buying strength; Scenario two, Bitmine triggers the upper limit rule, causing institutional marginal buying of ETH to decrease. Are you more focused on the turning point of treasury net buying or Bitmine's hard cap?
Source: Odaily Planet DailyBrent crashed yesterday but stabilized today first.
OKX current price is 106.97, today's high is 107.36, low is 103.41, basically moving sideways at a low level.
The US and Iran have signaled negotiations, and expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have risen, causing the geopolitical premium to retreat; exports from Iraq through Turkey have increased, and Kuwait's production has also risen, putting supply pressure on the other side.
However, the signals remain inconsistent: the US struck Qeshm Island on Monday, Iranian media said communication made no progress, so today's slight rebound is not yet stable #伊朗授权政府谈判，霍尔木兹重开能否提速？ Core data analysis of BTC whale positions shows both long and short whales are at a floating loss, with the key level at 76000!!!
Overview of BTCUSDT perpetual whales: a total of 1293 whale addresses, with a nominal long-short ratio of 18.53%.
There are 333 long whales holding 635.12M USDT, with an average entry price of 85,378.26 USDT, currently at a floating loss, and a profit ratio of 38.73%.
There are 960 short whales holding 3.42B USDT, with an average entry price of 75,925.60 USDT, also at a floating loss, and a profit ratio of 56.56%.
The current price is around 77,014, with support to watch in the 76,000–76,500 range below, and resistance to watch in the 78,500–79,000 range above. The current price is between the average entry prices of the whales; neither the long nor short main forces have clearly moved away from the cost zone, so the short-term market remains dominated by range-bound competition.
Short whale positions are significantly larger, but after the price drop, the short whales’ profit ratio has not significantly widened, indicating the market is still volatile. If the support zone is broken, the long whales’ floating losses may further increase; if the price rebounds to the resistance zone, the short whales’ average cost of added positions will be tested.
For market review reference only, not constituting any trading advice #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Conclusion first: The $MELI perpetual contract (20x, USDT settled) launched by OKX at 20:00 last night is the only one among that batch of new TradFi perpetuals that strengthened: it rose from 1646 to 1685.9 in 24 hours, +2.4%. The same batch's $ADI -1.96%, $FLEX -3.73%, $UMC -7.56% all fell.
Why did it rise? The underlying stock MELI closed at 1676.79 on November 2, up 3.17% (intraday 1631→1707.87), with the market betting on the Q3 earnings report after the close on November 4; the company's fintech head also said before the report that Brazilian credit showed no signs of slowing.
But I care more about three numbers: open interest is only 20.47 contracts, about 34,500 USD; 24-hour volume is 209.69 contracts, about 353,000 USD; funding rate has been 0 for three consecutive periods; OKX has no MELI in its more than 1,200 spot pairs.
In plain language: on the eve of the earnings report, the only tool you can bet on 24 hours a day has a global open interest of only 20 contracts, and the quotes you see are set by a few dozen people. When there is a real gap, you have no spot to hedge, and the funding rate won't warn you that the premium is rising.
After the close on November 4, will you use the $MELI perpetual to bet on the earnings report, or stay on the sidelines? Strategy's fund allocation this time has completely refreshed the perception of many MicroStrategy believers: the money spent on repurchasing STRC preferred shares during the same period actually exceeded the funds used to buy BTC by three times 🤔. Although it continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings, acquiring 811 BTC, the capital focus clearly leans towards repurchasing its own preferred shares, immediately sparking discussions about whether its treasury strategy is shifting.
The market has always had a fixed impression of Strategy as being all in on hoarding BTC, continuously issuing funds to buy, buy, buy. Now, the large-scale repurchase of preferred shares essentially optimizes its own balance sheet, reduces the dividend pressure brought by preferred shares, and stabilizes MSTR's own equity structure.
Some believe this is a disguised slowdown in Bitcoin expansion pace, while others think that after solidifying the debt structure, it will have stronger long-term financing ability to continue hoarding coins. It is still difficult to draw a direct conclusion at this stage; ongoing observation of its fund allocation ratio is needed to see whether this is a phased operation or a long-term strategic adjustment. This change will affect the sentiment of BTC-related concept stocks
$BTC #Strategy回购规模超购币三倍，财库策略转向？ 🔥 How to view the U.S. midterm elections? The results will be out at midnight!!
Many friends have been closely watching the midterm elections recently, often mistaking it as the main factor determining market rises or falls.
The election is just an event that disturbs the market, not the root cause; the real determinants of the big picture are the Federal Reserve's interest rates, inflation, and corporate profitability.
Before the election, policy direction is unclear, so market funds hesitate to enter. Once the vote is out and uncertainty settles, risk appetite will recover.
🔺 If the Republicans take both chambers, tax cuts and deregulation of industries will likely strengthen sectors like natural resources, crude oil, and defense.
🔺 If the Democrats take control: expectations of tax increases and tighter regulation on tech and pharmaceuticals will rise, suppressing the broader market while U.S. Treasury bonds may rise.
The election has no direct impact on A-shares or Hong Kong stocks; the main effect is on the semiconductor memory sector $MU $SKHYNIX.
Avoid heavy positions in intraday trading; if the final result is close to prior polls, the good news may already be priced in and could turn bearish, but if the result exceeds expectations, a one-sided market may emerge!
The market never lacks stories of overnight doubling, but what’s scarce is those who remain at the table after doubling.💥Two-way escape! Capital flow reveals danger signals
$BTC $ETH $SOL $ZEC
BTC
Contract outflow 194 million
Spot outflow 76.36 million
Spot positions reduce simultaneously, not just deleveraging
ETH
Contract outflow 95.69 million
Spot outflow 114 million
Spot outflow exceeds contract, structure is the weakest
SOL
Contract outflow 79.49 million
Spot inflow 8.84 million
Small amount of absorption, negligible in comparison
Market commonality
Four coins reduce positions simultaneously in the afternoon
Volume increases, positions do not increase
ZEC turnover active, positions also retreat
Key variables tonight
23:00 JOLTS job openings
Midterm election voting day, results on Wednesday
Binance withdrawal phase two released in batches
My judgment
For rebound to hold, two signals needed
Narrowing spot outflow + narrowing contract outflow
Signal not arrived, firmly do not chase the rise
Which side do you think will see capital return first, spot or contract?🤔
Capital review only, not investment advice
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ I immediately recalled the feeling from the last round—just relieved, then tightened again by the pullback. Familiar as it is, I'm not in a hurry to reuse the old script.
$BTC fell below $77,000, dropping about 2% during the Asian session, reversing Monday's rebound. This time it's compounded by tech stock sell-offs and uncertainty ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.
I tend to view this pullback as a spillover of risk-off sentiment: tech stocks are under pressure simultaneously, so explaining it solely by crypto sentiment is too narrow. Right now, I'm more focused on external risks rather than the strength of the rebound. Veteran players, do you also feel this familiar sense of cross-market pressure?eth
ETH is currently facing multiple pressures including continuous institutional fund withdrawals, market liquidity contraction, and an overall decline in risk appetite. On November 2, the US spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $139.7 million, with a cumulative net outflow of about $566.8 million over the past 7 days, and a net outflow of around $1.61 billion over the past 30 days, indicating sustained weakness in funding.
Among them, BlackRock's ETHA experienced a single-day net outflow of about $138.3 million, showing concentrated institutional fund withdrawal. Although a few funds like Fidelity saw slight inflows, they are currently insufficient to reverse the overall trend of fund outflows.
At present, ETH is performing weaker compared to BTC, with its price continuously pressured by market sell-offs. Previously, market expectations for capital inflows into Ethereum spot ETFs have not materialized, and institutional willingness to allocate remains insufficient, resulting in a lack of sustained buying support during the rebound processDamn, after three consecutive midterm elections, BTC has crashed each time!
Look at the data from the previous three times:
2014: Lost control of both chambers, dropped to $171 within 71 days, maximum drawdown 48%
2018: Lost the House, bottomed at $3200 in 39 days, dropped 50%
2022: Lost the House, touched $15500 in 13 days, drawdown 16%
Now the prediction data is also changing, with Democrats' chance of taking the House rising to 95%, and the Senate at 72%.
History is clear, will there be another wave this time? Keep that in mind.Let's first present the accounts of the three orders from the last round, without changing a single word: XRP long at 1.2533 open, current price 1.2544, take profit at 1.2756, stop loss at 1.2400, neither triggered, closed +0.09%; TRX long at 0.3204 open, current price 0.3225, take profit at 0.3228 just missed, closed +0.66%; LINK long at 11.124 open, current price 11.113, closed −0.10%, take profit at 11.408, stop loss at 10.954 not triggered. Among the three orders, two were profitable and one had a slight loss, with a hit rate of 67%. The truly meaningful point in this round is not this small gain, but that none of the three orders were stopped out — the price dropped to a six-week low, yet the long positions remain active, indicating that this downturn is a leverage liquidation, not a transfer of chips. Two matters pressing on the market are both related to Washington. One is the $6.3 billion: a top global platform transferred about $6.3 billion of assets on October 29, froze about $3 billion on-chain, acknowledged all losses, replenished about 95% of affected assets, and began phased withdrawal resumption from November 1, with the top ten assets fully reserved at 100%. The other is even more significant: the swap market prices in a 78% chance of a rate hike in December, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 4.63% to 4.55%, yet the dollar did not weaken. The political interpretation is straightforward — between inflation and votes, liquidity is always the first to be cut, and money will be drawn toIt's 5:30 PM, just about to pack up and get off work. I switched back to the market screen and wow, the main force is harvesting so thoroughly, they don't even plan to leave a root. All the leverage below is lining up to be sacrificed.
First, look at $DOGE, current price 0.074. The 4-hour long-short ratio has shot up to an outrageous 5.23. Despite the drop, there's a whole bunch of bulls stubbornly holding on below. The leverage is stacked like a fortress. The main force must be grinning at this data. Without a big bearish candle to completely wipe out this group, there's no way to pump the price.
Next, $SUI, current price 0.87, is steadily declining with no sign of stabilization. But the long-short ratio stubbornly stays at 2.8. Retail investors keep buying more as it falls, the old bad habit unchanged. The open interest remains high. This is clearly like boiling a frog slowly, grinding down the bottom-fishing leverage bit by bit. Don't catch the falling knife.
Finally, $PEPE, current price 0.0000047, is the harshest. The funding rate has directly dropped to negative 0.15%. Bulls have been tormented into submission and are now paying to beg for mercy. The long-short ratio has fallen from the morning's high, indicating many can't hold on and are cutting losses. When panic selling hits, there might be a short-term rebound, but the overall trend remains weak.
In summary, until the main force is full, any rebound is a bull trap. Control your hands, don't use real money as cannon fodder.
How are your positions? Have you cut losses and fled, or are you planning to hold on to the end?
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 $PLTR
Someone in the group said that Palantir's revenue doubled but the stock still dropped 10%, the market is crazy.
It's not crazy. I looked at the earnings report: adjusted EPS of $0.44, expected $0.41; revenue of $2.31 billion, expected $2.18 billion, surpassing $2 billion for the first time, nearly doubling year-over-year, and commercial revenue exceeded government revenue for the first time. If this data were from any other company, the stock would have surged long ago.
Yet the stock price dropped nearly 10% in two days. Meanwhile, the token fell from 186.89 to 170.03, touching a daily low of 165.38.
My understanding is that the doubling has already been priced in during its 150% gain earlier this year; the earnings report just fulfilled expectations without bringing anything new.
There's another detail. At 5 PM on the 1-hour chart, the token traded 6,726 contracts, while the previous few hours only had three to four hundred. When it was dumped, the volume was more than ten times the usual, so someone really sold off at this level. But the open interest was only $1.67 million, the fee rate was zero, and leveraged positions didn't enter at all.
So don't use this token as a sentiment indicator; it follows the stock, not its own liquidity. I used to chase highs on similar stocks, and I still remember the lesson.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ETH
2266, I've been watching all afternoon, and it hasn't left the 2250 range by more than twenty dollars.
There's a striking number on-chain: the proportion of ETH profit supply has dropped to the levels seen at the cycle bottoms in 2018, 2020, and 2022. In other words, most people holding ETH now are either at a loss or just breaking even.
The address mentioned in the news flash is interesting too. It lost $6.09 million in 6 hours, closed all long positions in BTC, HYPE, and ZEC, then immediately opened long positions in ETH and HYPE. I've seen this scene many times—losers doubling down.
The market has given a bit of respect though. BTC down 1.5% in 24 hours, SOL down 2.4%, ETH only down 1.04%, and the 24-hour low of 2237 hasn't been touched again. The $1.45 billion in open interest hasn't been withdrawn, funding rate +0.0057%, longs are paying, but very lightly.
My view: this is resistance to falling, not a sign of strength. Real strength depends on volume; today's 1-hour average volume is just over two thousand coins, far from the heavy selling last week.
It can't fall, but no one is rushing to buy either, so it's just lingering.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压
Apple's earnings report shows “strong revenue, weak profit”: Q4 revenue was $114.48 billion, up 12% year-over-year, exceeding expectations. But growth mainly came from price increases rather than volume: iPhone revenue hit a September quarter record of $57.58 billion, up 17.5% year-over-year, while shipments slightly declined by 2%, and the average selling price rose from about $837 to $1005. Service revenue reached a new high, but growth slowed below 10%.
What really pressured the stock price was the gross margin guidance. This quarter's gross margin was 47.9%, including about 1 percentage point tariff refund; excluding that, it was 46.9%, and hardware gross margin excluding refunds was only about 36%. Holiday season guidance is only 45%–46%, below the expected ~47%. Two main reasons: unprecedented rise in storage chip costs; Siri AI cloud inference costs included in service costs and deferred recognition, continuously dragging down gross margin. Apple offsets this with low-priced inventory, squeezing component costs, and price hikes, but management admits cost increases are eating into these measures.
The market fell more than 4% after hours, not because this quarter earned less, but because “price hike benefits are being eaten up by costs.” Service growth guidance is only 8%–9%, the high-margin safe haven is fading; Greater China revenue was $17.54 billion, up 21% but below expectations, discounting the recovery.
In short: Apple is propping up revenue with price hikes, but storage and AI cloud costs are systematically compressing profits, and next quarter will be the real test.#PalantirQ3 revenue grew 96%, but the stock price fell instead of rising
Palantir's Q3 disconnect is even stronger than Apple's: the fundamentals are almost flawless, but the market never trades on "current performance," rather on "marginal acceleration." The stock price still fell about 3%–4% after hours, due to two marginal signals.
First, new contract momentum is slowing. The total contract value (TCV) for U.S. commercial contracts in Q3 increased only 11% year-over-year, compared to 153% last quarter—a huge drop. William Blair analysts pointed out this is the lowest growth rate since 2023. This quarter's growth mainly relied on existing customers "deepening" (net dollar retention rate of 165%), not new deals driving it. The market worries: the 96% growth this quarter is from contracts signed in the past being realized; what will drive growth next quarter?
Second, valuation turns "excellent" into "just passing." The forward price-to-sales ratio was about 50x before the earnings report, and the trailing price-to-earnings ratio exceeded 140x, meaning several years of high growth are already priced into the stock. At this valuation, exceeding expectations is not a catalyst but the minimum entry condition; any marginal signal that is "just meeting expectations" is enough to trigger profit-taking.
In short: Palantir delivered astonishing growth, but the market is already pricing in the "next astonishing growth," and the new contract data failed to provide that assurance.Accumulated losses of about $38.2 million. Seeing this number, many people's first reaction is probably: this address is shorting again, just do the opposite. The material also mentioned that it first opened a long position and closed it within the operation window, then established a $BTC short position. I actually think this news is overestimated as a directional signal, and the people most likely to get trapped are those who blindly copy the "reverse operation".
On the other hand, accumulated losses are a report card of the past, not a verdict for the next trade. Directly inferring that this time will also be wrong based on historical losses misses key factors like entry criteria and holding period; I dare not fill in the story for it.
Also, a single contract account does not equal the entire risk exposure. If it has hedges elsewhere, then the meaning of this short position in front of us could be different; this is just my speculation, the material did not confirm it. I will continue to watch position changes and not take others' losses as my own steering wheel.Voting is tomorrow, November 3rd. The market volume has shrunk like this because it's waiting for this moment! Here's the conclusion upfront: the Republicans will win, and not by a small margin👇 1. I see the Senate at 53 seats for Republicans, Democrats at most holding 47. The reason is simple: the redistricting map is set, they have too many states to defend, not a single one can be lost, losing one means a complete turnaround. 2. For the House, I give around 230 seats, Republicans continue toThe U.S. midterm elections have started counting votes. Personally, I lean towards a Democratic victory, which could trigger a new round of corrections in U.S. tech stocks!
Why bearish?
First, if the Democrats take the House of Representatives, new changes could arise in AI regulation, scrutiny of large tech companies, and tech industry policies, potentially impacting market valuation expectations for tech stocks.Bitcoin has a history of reacting badly around US midterm elections, but the bigger factor is how much political uncertainty spills into liquidity and risk appetite.
The historical drawdowns are worth noting, especially if both chambers change hands. However, three cycles aren't enough to establish a reliable pattern.
For $BTC, I’d be more concerned about how the market prices in the uncertainty, particularly ETF flows, liquidity and positioning. #USMidtermsPolicyOutlook 🔷 $BTC lost to the S&P over 5 years, but DCA flipped everything
Over 5 years BTC +26%, S&P 500 +75%. But with $1,000 monthly purchases:
BTC around $107K, S&P around $93K (invested $60K).
For the first two years, the BTC portfolio was below the invested amount.
Red flag: one calculation, one period. November after a weak October in an election year rose 5 times out of 5, but the sample size is small.
Do you buy in parts or all at once? 👇
DYOR.#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
The U.S. midterm elections are essentially voters giving Trump a "midterm report card" for his two years in office. The three most important things to watch are:
First, who controls Congress. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election. The Democrats only need a net gain of 3 seats to flip control, and many analyses predict they could gain 12 to 30 seats, making a "change of power" highly likely. In the Senate, 35 seats are up for election. Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to take the majority, but many battlegrounds are in Republican territory, making the outcome uncertain. The most likely result is a "split Congress."
Second, why voters are dissatisfied. The real burden on the Republicans is the "bill," not ideology. 84% of registered voters list the economy as a very important issue. The Iran conflict has pushed up oil prices, with diesel rising about 60% and gasoline nearly 40%, directly impacting household commuting and transportation costs. Trump's approval rating has dropped to around 30%, and about two-thirds of Republican candidates in competitive districts intend to distance themselves from him; however, he still has 79%–84% support within the party. This contrast of "national drag, party stronghold" is worth watching.
Third, what happens after the election. If Congress is split, negotiations over the debt ceiling and government funding are likely to drag on, increasing the risk of a government shutdown. China policy will not shift overnight; tools like tariffs still rely on existing executive authority and will continue, but changes in congressional control will affect the White House's conditions and pace for advancing trade negotiations.
In short: watch whether the House flips, how the economic "bill" is settled, and whether a divided government turns "governance" into "deadlock." $BTC $ETH Stablecoin liquidity is bleeding🩸
Total stablecoin market cap just hit a 1-year low, dropping $17B in the last 6 months alone.
Look at Binance. After the recent hack, their stablecoin supply (which holds 70% of exchange reserves) crashed from $51B down to $34B. That's a massive -20% drop in the 90-DMA.
The bottom line? There is a severe lack of incoming demand and fresh liquidity. Retail is too scared to deploy capital due to hacks and macro uncertainty
$BTC 👀
#AppleQ4MarginPressure $BTC Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, this data is more important than candlesticks
At 21:30 on Friday night, the US October Nonfarm Payrolls will be released. Beichen says in advance: this data is more important than any candlestick this week
Right now, the market only cares about one thing: whether the Fed will cut interest rates or not. And the decision to cut or not depends on employment.
Strong nonfarm means companies are still hiring, the economy hasn't cooled down, so rate cuts will be postponed. With funding costs not coming down, assets like Bitcoin that rely on liquidity will fall first.
Weak nonfarm means the job market is starting to collapse, recession trades begin. The Fed might cut rates, but the market sells first out of caution. In March 2020, after rate cuts, Bitcoin dropped from 9000 to 3800.
So this data causes a drop whether good or bad. The only scenario that can really push prices up is: neither strong nor weak, just around expectations, giving the Fed a reason to cut rates without making the market worry about economic problems.
Beichen's view: before this data is released, the worst thing to do is to heavily bet on a direction. Many think one correct bet can double their money. But one wrong bet can wipe out all previous gains. During this data release, a 15-minute candlestick can move thousands of points, making stop-losses ineffective.
My advice is to wait, wait for the first 15-minute candlestick to complete, see which side the market chooses, then follow. This way you might earn a bit less, but you won't get slapped in the face!
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 #伊朗授权政府谈判，霍尔木兹重开能否提速？ Has the fund storage already exited ahead in the vote counting process?
SNDK recorded a 6.34% pullback, with chips in the high-level AI storage sector transferring outward, as funds are pre-pricing the regulatory uncertainties brought by the election. Positions that previously continuously pushed up the sector are gradually realizing profits.
Smart money is avoiding the uncertainties on this chain; if the Democrats take the House, tech scrutiny and AI regulation constraints will rewrite valuation benchmarks. Before the election results are finalized, funds will not rashly re-enter.
Open the position list and check the stop-loss levels of tech sector positions; do not bet on a single election outcome.
$BTC $ETH $SOL 🔥Nasdaq is now "overnight" directly, traditional finance finally aligns with the crypto world
Starting December 6, 23/5 trading begins, leaving only a 1-hour daily market break window
Previously, only the crypto market was 7×24 never closing. Now Wall Street actively extends trading hours, essentially capturing funds lost in time zone differences.
The new night session perfectly covers the A-share daytime; fluctuations in US stocks, Nasdaq, and tech stocks will no longer be just a late-night affair. The linkage between Nasdaq, AI giants, and BTC/ETH will become more continuous, and the logic of overnight gaps will be rewritten.
⚠️Key point: US stocks trade 23 hours only, still closed on weekends; but BTC is always running.
This is not the end, just a preliminary step for traditional finance moving towards tokenization and around-the-clock trading.
Global asset correlations are getting stronger. In the future, when watching macro trends, keep an eye on both the US stock night session and the crypto market. $BTC $ETH #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC $ETH
Binance reopened withdrawals for 9.5 hours, with $4.65 billion withdrawn? Looks scary, but it was actually a "stress test"
Withdrawals of 4.649 billion, deposits of 1.01 billion, net outflow of 3.64 billion — only 2.1% of the total 171 billion reserve. After the peak rush, it quickly fell back, BTC still hovering around 78,000, no crash; the whales moved the hot wallet base funds to cold storage.
After the 6.3 billion major heist, Binance covered 95% of the hole themselves, with SAFU + own funds backing it up, trust hasn't collapsed, just a reminder not to keep all your coins on exchanges.
The negative sentiment has basically been digested, next focus is on the PoR update on November 3. Don’t chase emotional candlesticks, keep dollar-cost averaging BTC/ETH on dips.
Has your withdrawal arrived? How long was it stuck? Report in the comments to see who had it worst Currently, Bitcoin's price is approaching the potential support zone of 73,500-75,000. On the daily chart, the downtrend structure of lower highs and lower lows continues, and on October 31, the 20-day moving average crossed below the 60-day moving average. On the 4-hour chart, the moving averages show a bearish alignment. Bitcoin's price has not shown clear signs of bottoming yet; the key focus is on the price no longer making new lows, breaking back above 79,000, and closing above 79,000 on the 4-hour chart. At that point, the situation will clearly improve. $BTC Title: $BTC Midterm Election Pattern: Is Bitcoin Forming Its Bottom Earlier in 2026? $BTC : Could Bitcoin complete its correction earlier this time? Looking at the previous three US midterm election cycles, Bitcoin experienced progressively smaller retracements: approximately 65% in 2014, 52% in 2018, and 27% in 2022. This time, the situation looks interesting. BTC has already experienced a significant correction ahead of the 2026 midterm elections and has rebounded from its recent low, tradingAsia's AI-heavy markets are taking a serious beating.
Roughly $7 trillion in market value has been wiped out across four major Asian markets.
🇰🇷 South Korea: Down $2.17T, with a 40% decline in just four months.
🇨🇳 China: Down $3.01T over the past six months, a 16% drop.
🇯🇵 Japan: Lost $1.20T, falling 13.5% in over four months.
🇹🇼 Taiwan: Down $741B, shedding 16.2% in just one month.
The AI trade has been a major driver of market gains across Asia.Core contradiction: ETFs vote with their feet "before the event"
The core contradiction today is not the election itself, but that ETFs have already made their choice before the election results are announced.
On October 30, there was an outflow of 233.7 million, and Fidelity's FBTC saw an outflow of 130 million. On that day, no Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow. IBIT and FBTC are the main channels for institutional Bitcoin allocation. The simultaneous large outflows from both point to a portfolio-level adjustment of overall strategy rather than isolated actions by individual investors.
By November 2, the outflow pace had not stopped: BTC spot ETFs led with another 405 million outflow, with the only marginal bright spot being Fidelity's FBTC turning to a slight net inflow of 104 million.
This means: regardless of the election outcome, institutional funds have already completed the "risk reduction" action before the election. The question for the post-election market is: where will the new buying come from?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 $IRYS IRYS, a Web3 storage track, claims to be the future of decentralized data layers. It rose 10.21% today, with a trading volume of 15 million, which is quite something. What is the full name of IRYS? It doesn't matter. What matters is—every IRYS you buy is paying for the project's "decentralized dream," and the price of that dream just happens to be 10.21% of your principal. A 10% rise feels great, but don't forget how much it fell last month.The oil temperature of this $AAVE pot has already surged to the edge of the pan, emitting blue smoke, with a beautiful layer of foam floating on the surface — my first reaction wasn’t to add ingredients, but to turn off the heat. It rose 4.68% in 24 hours, like the last fierce flame before reducing the sauce; it smells good, but if you keep burning it, it will scorch the bottom. The short-term RSI is already 70.4, clearly overbought; the long-term RSI is only 55.9, just a lukewarm neutral fire, indicating that the whole pot isn’t boiling, but the edges are locally burnt. The Bollinger Bands short-term price position is 132%, 1.1% above the upper band, with a 4.9% gap to the lower band; this broth has already overflowed the pot’s edge; the mid-term Bollinger Bands position is 66%, 2.8% below the upper band and 5.8% above the lower band, so the big pot bottom is still stable, but the upper layer has already overcooked. The signal is to sell, and my judgment is simple: don’t dump the whole pot, but wait for a pullback to 97.99 — 2.9% above the current price — then skim the oil and short. In the main dish ratio, $AAVE can be considered the main course on this DeFi table, but today the fire is too strong, so reduce the portion first; altcoins are the seasoning, sprinkle a little to enhance the flavor; leveraged contracts are the extra spicy chili, adding more at this overbought position will burn your stomach. For this short-term pot of soup, skim the foam first, then reduce the sauce.
📉 Short:
Entry: 97.99 (current price +2.9%)
Take Profit 1: 87.10 (-8.5%)
Take Profit 2: 90.03 (-5.5%)
Stop Loss: 109.29 (+14.8%)
Take Profit 1 at around 87.10 means cutting off the entire burnt edge; Take Profit 2 at 90.03 leaves a bit of flavor for the pot. Stop Loss at 109.29 is set 14.8% above the current price, like a bowl of ice water by the stove, preventing chili oil from suddenly splashing. Don’t copy my chili sprinkling hand feeling for position sizing — at this level, the main course can only occupy the center of the plate, seasoning should be just enough, and the extra spicy chili should be locked away. This $AAVE pot of soup has already rolled 1.1% above the upper band in the short term, RSI 70.4 is still urging you to add fire, but I only recognize one action: turn off the heat, leave the stove, and wait for it to cool down on its own. I won’t even lift the lid on this pot; short term it’s just discard soup — skim off the foam, reset the heat to zero.Typical weak stock market trend! BTC stagnates and consolidates at the bottom, ETH passively resists decline, SOL leads the way breaking down and weakening! Institutional funds keep withdrawing, the market fundamentally lacks counterattack strength!
The biggest truth in the current market:
The chart shows no major drop, but there is a turbulent undercurrent. BTC and ETH are stuck tightly in a range, unwilling to move, while SOL is the first to succumb to selling pressure and break key support. Continuous ETF outflows indicate institutions have no intention to bottom-fish.
$BTC around $77,400
Long-term sideways near 77,000, testing patience, rebounds lack volume, declines have price. Single-day ETF massive outflow of $643 million, institutions decisively retreating.
77,000 is the short-term life-or-death support; holding it means continued bottom consolidation, breaking it points to 76,300 downside; bulls must strongly reclaim the 78,000 level to turn the tide.
$ETH around $2,270
Appears to resist decline slightly, but it’s actually a low-volume sideways weak correction. ETF outflows continue for 5 consecutive days, single-day outflow of $156 million, capital continues to shrink.
The 2,250 bottom support is absolutely critical; holding it offers a slight chance of recovery, breaking it will trigger a new round of pullback, and the 2,300 resistance is hard to reach in the short term.
$SOL around $93.29
Fully entered bearish rhythm! The $95 support is completely invalidated, the trend continues weakening.
ETF cumulative outflow over 5 days totals $71.5 million, with a single-day outflow of $10.74 million, continuous redemptions keep suppressing the price.
Currently, the 92–93 range is the last defensive zone
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 Binance proves this matter: the community is most chaotic when information is hottest. First, categorize layers; do not jump to conclusions.
Confirmed fact layer: The Saturday snapshot shows at least 10 assets with at least 1:1 verifiable ratio. $XRP about 100.99%, $RLUSD about 100.83%. After withdrawal resumed, net outflow first surged to about $7 billion, then fell back to about $3.5 billion. $BTC around $76,800, fear and greed index about 26.
Author's inference layer: Some say that once the snapshot is out, it means the repayment issue is closed. This is inferred from the snapshot, not stated by the snapshot itself. The complete zero-knowledge proof has not yet been released; it expires today.
Unverified rumor layer: There are claims that only 21 types of assets can be withdrawn. SAFU wallet decreased from about 15,000 coins to about 7,500 coins. No timeline given for replenishment. The former is an unverified count by critics; the latter is a replenishment timeline Binance has not provided. Community information is suitable for identifying disagreements, not for directly determining direction.After the market closed on November 2, Palantir announced its Q3 fiscal 2026 results: revenue of $2.313 billion, a 96% year-over-year increase, adjusted EPS of $0.44, both exceeding expectations, and raised its full-year guidance to $8.53 billion. U.S. commercial revenue was $984 million, up 148%, surpassing government business for the first time.
However, the stock still fell nearly 3% in after-hours trading. The issue is not the performance but the valuation: the forward price-to-sales ratio before the earnings report was about 50x, turning from a catalyst into a minimum entry threshold. More critically, leading indicators weakened, with total contract value at $2.92 billion growing only 6%, and U.S. commercial contract value growth slowing from 153% last quarter to 11%.
History also confirms this reaction: in the past four earnings reports, EPS exceeded expectations every time, yet the stock price fell after two of them. The market’s concern is not how much is earned now, but whether the high valuation can still be justified by future growth after order slowdowns. #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 If AI is not a bubble, you will lose your job.
If AI is a bubble, you will lose your savings.
Most likely, AI is currently in a financial bubble but still on an exponential improvement curve technically, so you will lose your savings first, then your job.
Good luck.In Binance's $TRX reserve list, there is still at least a $16.5 million shortfall in TRX that hasn't been covered.
The batch stolen by hackers hasn't been recovered, and the exchange must make up the reserve according to regulations, so they can only buy it in batches from the secondary spot market.
There is a clearly visible super big buyer under the order book who must pay.
Whenever the market dips slightly, it is quickly supported; trying to short at the top at this time is purely because you have too much principal.
#TRX
$TRX
👇Bold Prediction: Within two years, it will be difficult for the crypto space to see a true bull market.
To officially declare the end of the bear market ice age, three tough hurdles must be crossed simultaneously:
① Decentralized custody solutions for exchanges mature and security risks are verified;
② BTC price is halved, fully releasing the bubble and digesting a massive amount of trapped positions;
③ The underlying cryptographic system is upgraded, with capabilities to resist AI hacker attacks and quantum decryption.
These three major events are unlikely to all be realized in the short term, so the bear market cycle will be extended.
1. Why is it hard to start a bull market within two years? All necessary conditions for a bull market are missing
In past bull markets, the common underlying prerequisites were: inflow of incremental funds, unanimous optimistic consensus, secure and trustworthy infrastructure, and narratives with imaginative space.
The current environment is completely reversed:
1. The massive Binance hack shattered institutional and retail investors' trust in centralized exchanges. As long as assets are stored on exchanges, there is a risk of being swept by hackers, and large funds dare not enter confidently.
2. AI attack tools are rapidly spreading, lowering the threshold for hacker attacks continuously. Coin theft, contract vulnerabilities, and social engineering infiltration will become normalized, casting a long-term security shadow over the market.
3. The pace of quantum computing development is accelerating. The elliptic curve cryptography system used by BTC and ETH has shifted from a distant risk topic to a long-term hidden danger continuously discussed in the market.
4. Regulatory tightening continues, with countries increasing control over crypto assets, on-chain tracking, and compliance audits, suppressing risk appetite.
A bull market is built on confidence and capital. As long as doubts about security foundations remain, incremental funds will continue to watch cautiously, making it difficult to form a broad bull market.
2. First hurdle: Decentralized custody for exchanges matures and risk-free status is confirmed by the market
Currently, the vast majority of users and institutions still rely on centralized exchanges for deposits, withdrawals, and trading.
Centralized exchanges are essentially "third-party asset custodians," with permissions, hot wallets, and operational chains always having single points of failure.
Although DeFi self-custody, multiparty computation (MPC), and distributed custody solutions exist, they have not yet undergone large-scale, long-term practical testing. They have significant shortcomings in liquidity, usage threshold, and user experience.
Only when decentralized custody solutions have been tested repeatedly in attack and defense, proving hackers cannot easily steal assets in bulk, will funds dare to flow confidently into the trading market.
Until then, the concern "assets stored on exchanges may be stolen" will always hang over the market, making confidence restoration impossible.
This technology implementation and long-term validation cycle itself takes a long time, making large-scale adoption and consensus confirmation within two years unlikely.
3. Second hurdle: BTC price halved, bubble cleared, and trapped positions fully digested
BTC is the market anchor for the entire crypto space; all altcoins and public chain tokens move in beta correlation with BTC.
The current price level holds a huge amount of ETF institutional positions, faith-driven positions from social media bullish calls, and retail trapped positions chasing highs.
As long as these trapped positions remain, every rebound will face selling pressure from position releases, suppressing rebound heights and making sustained main rises difficult.
Only a deep drop, halving the price, fully exchanging high-cost chips, washing out unsteady faith positions, and lowering the cost base can re-accumulate upward momentum.
But a deep halving itself will further impact industry consensus; it is a painful clearing process that cannot be completed in the short term.
4. Third hurdle: Underlying cryptography upgrade, achieving resistance to AI hackers and quantum success
This is the core underlying threshold for the next generation of digital assets and the key difference of this bear market from all previous ones:
Previous bear markets were only about liquidity, regulation, and speculation cycles;
This round adds a cryptographic crisis at the base layer:
1. AI greatly reduces the cost of vulnerability discovery, contract attacks, social engineering coin theft, and on-chain tracking, with attack methods continuously iterating;
2. Once fault-tolerant quantum computers arrive, the existing ECDSA signature system will face the risk of undermining property rights.
BTC and ETH protocol upgrades are extremely difficult, with lengthy governance and huge community divisions, making rapid full-chain post-quantum transformation unlikely.
Only if audited and battle-tested post-quantum cryptographic bases emerge in the field, with the entire chain resistant to quantum attacks and contracts and permission layers capable of resisting AI-assisted hacker attacks, will a new value narrative form.
After the new narrative forms, capital will orderly shift from the old elliptic curve system to the new generation of secure foundations, spawning a new cycle.
This standard cannot be achieved by simply changing a line of code; it requires cryptographic proof, protocol upgrades, node migration, ecosystem adaptation, and long-term security testing. It is unlikely to be fully realized within two years.Just one company, BlackRock, caused the $BTC ETF to experience a net outflow
After the U.S. stock market closed on Monday, the numbers for the $BTC spot ETF came out: a net outflow of about $399 million for the whole day. Breaking it down, it's a bit unusual: BlackRock's IBIT alone had an outflow of $405.3 million, which is more than the total net outflow for the day. Fidelity's FBTC was the only net buyer in the market, with a net inflow of just $6.7 million, while the other 11 ETFs were basically zero.
This was IBIT's largest single-day outflow since June 26, when it was $444.5 million. Including last Friday, IBIT had a total outflow of about $639 million over two days, while the entire market saw a net outflow of about $1.04 billion in those two days. October had already seen a net outflow of $515 million for the whole month, marking the first negative month after large inflows in August and September.
On the same day, the $ETH spot ETF also saw an outflow of $140 million, marking the sixth consecutive day of decline. On the institutional side, it’s not a uniform sell-off; one major player is active while others are watching—on that day, $BTC even briefly fell below $76,400, the lowest point since August.
Tonight, after the U.S. stock market opens, the numbers for Tuesday will be important to see whether the outflow continues or stops bleeding, which is more significant than just looking at Monday alone. I am particularly sensitive to the gap between "testable" and "hypeable." This is somewhat interesting, but the more easily a message can ignite emotions, the more I want to find that bucket of cold water first.👀
Arthur Hayes stated on X that the FLOP devnet has been opened to developers, allowing access to test FLOP tokens, viewing blocks, and calling verified inference services through proxies. However, the test tokens have no value, do not generate rewards or airdrop weight, the chain may reset, and currently, there is no FLOP token.
I judge this more as adding an observation entry point to the decentralized inference track rather than a general benefit for small tokens: the service is callable, giving the narrative something verifiable; but the test network is still far from stable use. If the hype spills over to related high-volatility assets, then emotions may amplify opportunities as well as mismatch risks. I will monitor the calling experience and developer feedback and will not directly count test hype as demand. Bold Prediction: Within two years, it will be difficult for the crypto space to see a true bull market.
To officially declare the end of the bear market ice age, three tough hurdles must be crossed simultaneously:
① Decentralized custody solutions for exchanges mature and security risks are verified;
② BTC price is halved, fully releasing the bubble and digesting a massive amount of trapped positions;
③ The underlying cryptographic system is upgraded, with capabilities to resist AI hacker attacks and quantum decryption.
These three major events are unlikely to all be realized in the short term, so the bear market cycle will be extended.
1. Why is it hard to start a bull market within two years? All necessary conditions for a bull market are missing
In past bull markets, the common underlying prerequisites were: inflow of incremental funds, unanimous optimistic consensus, secure and trustworthy infrastructure, and narratives with imaginative space.
The current environment is completely reversed:
1. The massive Binance hack shattered institutional and retail investors' trust in centralized exchanges. As long as assets are stored on exchanges, there is a risk of being swept by hackers, and large funds dare not enter confidently.
2. AI attack tools are rapidly spreading, lowering the threshold for hacker attacks continuously. Coin theft, contract vulnerabilities, and social engineering infiltration will become normalized, casting a long-term security shadow over the market.
3. The pace of quantum computing development is accelerating. The elliptic curve cryptography system used by BTC and ETH has shifted from a distant risk topic to a long-term hidden danger continuously discussed in the market.
4. Regulatory tightening continues, with countries increasing control over crypto assets, on-chain tracking, and compliance audits, suppressing risk appetite.
A bull market is built on confidence and capital. As long as doubts about security foundations remain, incremental funds will continue to watch cautiously, making it difficult to form a broad bull market.
2. First hurdle: Decentralized custody for exchanges matures and risk-free status is confirmed by the market
Currently, the vast majority of users and institutions still rely on centralized exchanges for deposits, withdrawals, and trading.
Centralized exchanges are essentially "third-party asset custodians," with permissions, hot wallets, and operational chains always having single points of failure.
Although DeFi self-custody, multiparty computation (MPC), and distributed custody solutions exist, they have not yet undergone large-scale, long-term practical testing. They have significant shortcomings in liquidity, usage threshold, and user experience.
Only when decentralized custody solutions have been tested repeatedly in attack and defense, proving hackers cannot easily steal assets in bulk, will funds dare to flow confidently into the trading market.
Until then, the concern "assets stored on exchanges may be stolen" will always hang over the market, making confidence restoration impossible.
This technology implementation and long-term validation cycle itself takes a long time, making large-scale adoption and consensus confirmation within two years unlikely.
3. Second hurdle: BTC price halved, bubble cleared, and trapped positions fully digested
BTC is the market anchor for the entire crypto space; all altcoins and public chain tokens move in beta correlation with BTC.
The current price level holds a huge amount of ETF institutional positions, faith-driven positions from social media bullish calls, and retail trapped positions chasing highs.
As long as these trapped positions remain, every rebound will face selling pressure from position releases, suppressing rebound heights and making sustained main rises difficult.
Only a deep drop, halving the price, fully exchanging high-cost chips, washing out unsteady faith positions, and lowering the cost base can re-accumulate upward momentum.
But a deep halving itself will further impact industry consensus; it is a painful clearing process that cannot be completed in the short term.
4. Third hurdle: Underlying cryptography upgrade, achieving resistance to AI hackers and quantum success
This is the core underlying threshold for the next generation of digital assets and the key difference of this bear market from all previous ones:
Previous bear markets were only about liquidity, regulation, and speculation cycles;
This round adds a cryptographic crisis at the base layer:
1. AI greatly reduces the cost of vulnerability discovery, contract attacks, social engineering coin theft, and on-chain tracking, with attack methods continuously iterating;
2. Once fault-tolerant quantum computers arrive, the existing ECDSA signature system will face the risk of undermining property rights.
BTC and ETH protocol upgrades are extremely difficult, with lengthy governance and huge community divisions, making rapid full-chain post-quantum transformation unlikely.
Only if audited and battle-tested post-quantum cryptographic bases emerge in the field, with the entire chain resistant to quantum attacks and contracts and permission layers capable of resisting AI-assisted hacker attacks, will a new value narrative form.
After the new narrative forms, capital will orderly shift from the old elliptic curve system to the new generation of secure foundations, spawning a new cycle.
This standard cannot be achieved by simply changing a line of code; it requires cryptographic proof, protocol upgrades, node migration, ecosystem adaptation, and long-term security testing. It is unlikely to be fully realized within two years.$CORE CORE looking at this on-chain data literally made me laugh out loud.
Over 30,000 transactions were aggressively made in one day, but checking the DEX trading volume shows only $148 across the entire network.
So basically, it's all bots hyping themselves up in thin air, the chain is running, but no real money is coming in.
The order book depth is completely dry, and you can't even find decent orders below.
With this kind of liquidity, anyone rushing in is just paying electricity bills for the scripts.
#CORE
$CORE
👇BTC hit bottom after three consecutive election cycles; will it happen again this time?
There is an intriguing timing pattern between the US midterm elections and BTC's historical price movements.
Looking back at the previous three cycles: after the 2014 midterms, BTC bottomed around $170 approximately 71 days later; in 2018, about 39 days later, it bottomed near $3,200; in 2022, only about 13 days later, it bottomed near $15,500. Subsequently, BTC experienced long-term gains exceeding 100x, about 20x, and about 8x respectively.
The time to bottom has shortened each cycle, resembling some kind of periodic signal. However, three samples are insufficient to prove a causal relationship between elections and bottoms; halving cycles, macro liquidity, and market risk events are equally important.
More notably, BTC's phase low for 2026 already occurred on July 1, roughly 125 days before the November 3 election. This cycle, the historical pattern has already deviated.
So, is this an early bottom formation, or will there be changes later? More important than betting on the election date is to observe whether macro liquidity, capital flows, and price structure can truly confirm a reversal. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ I've gone through the latest capital flow data twice, and the overall picture still looks concerning. ① $BTC : Futures recorded $194M in outflows, while spot saw another $76.36M leave. Both markets are experiencing withdrawals, suggesting investors are reducing exposure rather than simply closing leveraged positions. ② $ETH : The situation looks weaker. Futures outflows reached $95.69M, while spot outflows hit $114M. Real-money selling pressure is adding to the weakness. ③ $SOL : There's one smaToday around 76,700, down about 1.8% in 24h. But in these days, the numbers in the news are even more chaotic than the price.
Take last week's exchange hack case as an example: some say the recovery rate is 90%, others say 95%; the net outflow after withdrawal reopening is said to be 3.64 billion USD, others say 5.14 billion. It looks contradictory, but actually it's different times and different standards.
Now I use AI differently: I don't let it draw conclusions, only let it make a "timestamped timeline." Each piece of information must clearly state: who issued it, when, the number, and what changed compared to the previous entry.
Lining it up like this makes it clear: On 10/29, about 6.3 billion USD was disclosed stolen; the official recovery/restoration rate was later adjusted from about 90% to about 95%; 3.64 billion is the net outflow about 9.5 hours after reopening, 5.14 billion is the 24-hour figure.
The takeaway: AI organizes quickly, but it easily mistakes old numbers for new ones. So for judgment, I do it myself and double-check key numbers against the original text.
When you follow an ongoing event, how do you organize the information? On November 2, Apple announced its fiscal 2026 Q4 results: revenue of $114.48 billion, up 12% year-over-year, earnings per share of $2.10, all exceeding expectations. Full-year revenue reached a record high of $478.8 billion, with iPhone and Mac growing 17.5% and 23.7% respectively.
However, the quality of the gross margin needs to be broken down. About 1 percentage point of this quarter's 47.9% came from a one-time tariff refund; the company expects the gross margin for the December quarter to drop to 45% to 46%, mainly due to "unprecedented" increases in memory prices and the cloud inference costs of Siri AI.
This continues a historical cause-and-effect chain: upstream storage price increases, Apple hedging by raising prices, followed by pressure on both sales volume and profit margins. This quarter, iPad and wearables revenue declined by 10.4% and 7.9%, respectively, and service growth slowed to 9.8%, the lowest in over three years.
After-hours stock price once fell more than 4%, indicating the market is more concerned about profit margins. #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 Mercado Bitcoin was hit for about $40M and promised to repay every user, yet $BTC barely moved: $76,600 at the news, $76,900 now. Longs worth $90M got wiped in 24 hours, and that is what drives price, not headlines. Which gives way first, $76,400 or $78,800?