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#阿斯麦Q3财报10月14日公布，EUV订单成焦点 📰
🔥 The lithography machine giant is about to deliver results. The market is focused not on profits, but on EUV orders. This thing is the lifeline of advanced processes; many orders indicate that TSMC, Samsung, and Intel are still desperately expanding production. AI chip capacity is guaranteed, so the computing power narrative can still hold.
But for the crypto circle, it's at most an emotional massage. Bitcoin is still bottoming around 84,000, ETFs have continuous net outflows, and the 5.6% US Treasury yields are tightly locking down off-exchange funds. No matter how strong ASML is, it can't quench the crypto circle's liquidity drought.
In terms of operations, don't get carried away: don't bet on earnings reports, don't chase AI concept coins, hold your spot positions firmly, avoid contracts, and keep your USDT. Wait for macro clearing to create a real pit, then go bargain hunting.During this data week, I tend to first liquidate longs and then shorts after the data is released. Don't chase the first candlestick; wait for expectations to adjust before taking action.
BTC is currently stuck at 83,000, with a sell wall at 86,000. Four attempts to break through 87,000 have failed. The ETF saw a net outflow of over 700 million on October 7th and 8th, and only about 20 million inflow on the 9th, less than 3% of the outflow. Institutional long-term positioning remains, but those are slow variables and can't relieve the immediate selling pressure. If the data is hot, BTC will first break 80,000 and look toward 78,000; if the data is moderate, only then is there a chance to test 86,000. Hold your base positions firmly; don't chase short-term moves.
ETH remains the weakest, with continuous ETF outflows. Its staking yields can't compete with U.S. Treasuries, so institutions are not stepping in. When BTC weakens, ETH falls the hardest; when BTC stabilizes, ETH rises the slowest. Its role has shifted from an asset to a cash machine, so don't expect it to strengthen independently in the short term.
Gold $XAUT ETFs are attracting record inflows, with Q3 net inflows hitting a historic high. The buying is genuine. Energy price hikes suppress it in the short term, but as long as core inflation remains controlled, stagflation logic will drive funds back into hard assets. Once interest rates peak, gold will move faster than anyone else and is the only one among the three brothers with solid support.
My view is clear: don't act immediately after the data release. Watch whether it first spikes or crashes, and wait for the initial wave of emotion to subside before trading with the trend. Hold your base positions firmly in BTC and ETH spot, fully unload short-term leverage, and put gold at the top of your watchlist. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 @OKX星球 Recently, SanDisk $SNDK's pullback almost crushed me.
From the recent market perspective, SanDisk has been continuously falling back, now priced around 1560. In the short term, we shouldn't rush to be bullish. The previous gains were too large, and with Samsung's preliminary Q3 results falling short of expectations, the market has started to reassess the profit outlook for the entire storage sector. Profit-taking is also intensifying volatility.
Is this the end of the storage industry's logic? I don't think so. AI servers and data centers still require a large amount of storage devices. What we really need to be cautious about is future supply increases, intensified competition, and overly high market expectations for performance. Demand in the industry doesn't mean every stock will keep rising.
Right now, I will focus on observing support around $1550. If it can hold here and break out with volume above $1600-$1620, there is a chance for a gradual short-term recovery; if $1550 is effectively broken, we need to guard against a further drop to $1500.
For someone like me holding at a high position, the worst thing is to blindly add positions because of being stuck. First, see if the support can hold, then see if the rebound is accompanied by volume. I think the storage sector still has opportunities, but SanDisk needs to prove in the short term that it can stop falling and stabilize. Don't add too heavily to your position. I'm already pretty much done for now. Do you think I still have a chance? 🥹🥹🥹 #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #PIMCO warns 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6% Oil prices fell about $1.5, but BTC showed no significant movement.
This is not contradictory: energy impacts crypto through inflation and interest rate expectations first.
OKX Planet market page shows BTC around $83,820, ETH around $2,549, almost flat for the day. AP reported that during the Asian trading session, oil prices fell about $1.50 per barrel, with the news background being Trump stating the US will purchase Russian diesel.
Conclusion: This is just a sentiment variable, not a direct buy signal. If oil prices do not continue to decline, inflation expectations may not ease; geopolitical news can also be volatile, chasing single headlines for trading can easily lead to whipsaws.
Will you include oil prices in your crypto trading watchlist? Last night NEAR missed the move, and I was really frustrated. Today it surged to 6.06 but just couldn't break through. I opened a short position at 5.82, with a stop loss at 6.10 and a target initially at 5.6. I'm not greedy with this trade, planning to get in and out quickly; if it breaks 6.1, I'll admit defeat.
Just opened it, basically no profit or loss yet. Honestly, this short is a bet on an overbought pullback. The 15-minute MACD formed a death cross, RSI dropped from 77 to 65, clearly no strength for a short-term rise. The daily chart is still bullish, but the 4-hour chart is also weakening at a high level. After such a strong surge, it needs to catch its breath.
The lesson from that 100x short last night is still fresh, so today I only dared to open 5x leverage, with a strict stop loss at 6.10. If it breaks the new high of 6.06, I'll exit immediately, no holding the position stubbornly. Once the target of 5.6 is reached, I'll reduce my position and then watch for 5.2.
I'm not sure if it will come down this time, but at least the stop loss is clearly set, unlike last night when I held recklessly. That's it for now, I'll wait for it to move on its own. Anyway, the stop loss is set, so whatever happens, happens.
Do you have NEAR in your hands? Are you going long or short like me?
$NEAR #FirstNEARSpotETFListedInUS
#NEAREcosystemProtocolAttackedCausingNearly10%PriceDrop
#NEAREcosystemProtocolTheftOf3.8MillionUSDFullyRecovered
Personal review, not investment advice0.10863 short $STRK at high altitude, 50x short position gained +200.68%, rocket falling directly hits the bears.
Selling pressure above 0.10863, order book shows resistance. Large funds retreating, direction becoming clear. Market response: 0.10863 dropped to 0.10431, floating profit +200.68%! Capital outflow = selling pressure, decline confirmed.
Capital decides to stay or leave. Panic is fear of rebound, loss is bottom fishing.
Take profit on 60%, keep 40% at breakeven. Don’t rush if you missed it, watch the resistance orders at 0.10863, I’m monitoring the order book. $BTC $ETH #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
This Wednesday will decide whether to raise interest rates in October.
At 8:30 PM Beijing time on October 14, the US September CPI and core CPI will be released. At the same time on the 15th, PPI, retail sales, and initial jobless claims will be published together. These data sets combined are the most important reference before the Federal Reserve meeting on October 28.
The current pricing is very delicate. As of October 10, the market's bet on a 25 basis point rate hike in October is only 18%, favoring action in December instead. A week ago, this number was still 70%, dropping very quickly. But note, a drop in probability does not mean the Fed has turned dovish. The September minutes show most officials believe another hike may be needed this year, just differing on timing. The market pushing the rate hike timing from October to December is not canceling the hike, just delaying it.
So next week's data is critical. Rising energy prices may push overall inflation higher; core CPI truly tests whether price pressures are spreading. If core CPI is moderate, the market will strengthen pause expectations, the dollar and US Treasury yields will fall, and BTC has a chance to rebound and test 84500 or even 85000. If core CPI is strong, or retail and employment data are too robust, the probability of a rate hike in October will rise again, BTC will face direct pressure around 83000, with short-term support between 81500 and 82000; breaking that looks toward 80000.
For BTC, now is the time to wait for the data. $BTC $ZEC ZEC只是反弹并不是反转，现在就是空的好机会。
昨天都在上涨，是不是觉得牛市要来了？
看空：反弹不是反转
别被这一波拉升吓跑。昨天普涨，不代表牛市，只是空头回补和情绪反弹。量没放、资金没进、压力没破，拿什么牛？越拉越像诱多，冲高就是空点。这里不是反转，是给空头送位置。牛市？等放量站稳关键位再说。现在，我不信。
加上聪明钱数据，空军整体被拉成了浮亏，盈利比例只剩二成多，可靠爆仓空头顶上去的价格，底下根本没有真买盘撑着，现在空头被清算，拉盘的燃料也就彻底烧完了。
操作上可以在1330附近的位置空，目标看回1200#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Hot Coin Data Rankings｜Last 15 Minutes
$BTC's full rally accompanied by position reduction, with selling bias at the end but price continues to rise. Trading volume 155 million USDT, 4.1 times the 15-minute average volume converted from the previous 1 hour; open interest -1.04%. Active buying at the end 20.2%, price in this segment +0.06%.
$S volume decline, open interest basically flat. Trading volume 768,000 USDT, 2.0 times the 15-minute average volume converted from the previous 1 hour; price -1.97%, open interest basically flat.Three positions: one is making a profit, two are bleeding
In the same account, the $BTC short position is profitable, while $ETH and $HYPE are losing.
What is this number: $HYPE unrealized loss of 4.86 million, the largest among the three positions. Entry price 63.9, liquidation price 106.59.
It uses 5x full-position short leverage. If the price rises more than 20%, this position will be gone.
How is this number calculated: 40x short $BTC, entry at 84070, liquidation at 105740. There is a gap of over 21,000 USD in between.
The higher the leverage, the shorter the distance it can withstand; this is the same principle.
The three positions share one margin. Every cent $HYPE loses eats into the buffer of the other two positions.
The profit on the $BTC side is being gradually drained by $HYPE.
When $HYPE's unrealized loss catches up with $BTC's unrealized profit, this account will have only one path left.
#Institutions continue to position, why is BTC still under pressure?
#VoiceOfTrading: Your experience deserves to be heard $BTC $ETH #GRASS has risen from a low point, but there is still significant disagreement about the sustainability of the rebound
US Treasury yields remain at a high level, and GRASS has shown a short-term upward movement. This does not necessarily indicate cross-market capital rotation; it only reflects risk assets moving in the same direction. The correlation between the two does not mean funds are withdrawing from the bond market to enter crypto; it only shows that current risk appetite is rising simultaneously.
OKEx spot GRASS/USDT latest transaction price is 0.8035 USDT, with a 24-hour range between 0.6718 USDT and 0.8904 USDT, showing obvious short-term volatility. Whether this rise can hold depends on whether it can maintain the lower boundary of the current range. If it falls back below the low again, it is more likely a short-term impulse.
This linkage will change when US Treasury yields reverse. Where have you currently set your order, and at what price will you place your stop loss?
$GRASS $BTC $ETH 84178 was pierced!! Don't chase longs yet, be careful of a dump after the sweep
Just broke above the 4-hour box top at 84178, current price around 84150, volume in 5 minutes surged to 7 times the usual, but only rose 0.1%. High volume with little price movement is a typical bull trap signal! The 4-hour moving averages are still in a bearish alignment. The range from 84749 to 85240 is a liquidation vacuum zone, likely to first spike down to sweep out short stop losses before reversing. My view: if the 4-hour candle can't hold above 84100, there's a high chance of a retest at 83530, then further down to 83200; to really turn bullish, it needs to hold above 85240 and close above it on the daily chart. Don't chase here!! Inflation data on Wednesday will set the direction. $BTC Brothers, this isn't how you hold a position, right?
Although I think $NEAR and $STRK are being hyped up by forced anti-quantum narratives without technical or product validation, and I don't recommend chasing the highs, I also strongly advise against shorting against the wind.
Right now is the peak of the hype; $NEAR's RSI is 74.6 and heating up, the technicals keep hitting new highs, and even the leveraged positions have maxed out with $159 million in open interest. Shorting against the trend is basically like dancing on a tightrope.
Don't underestimate the power of web3 hype; every short squeeze teaches impatient brothers a lesson. If it weren't for everyone's crazy enthusiasm for the hype, which even made me start doubting my own judgment, I wouldn't have dreamed the day before yesterday about missing out and breaking my leg 😂
That's why I said after careful consideration the day before yesterday, I won't buy into a narrative I don't understand and have decided to stay away from it. $CAP Why current short positions are very dangerous
Currently, the number of people shorting is more than those going long, ratio about 7:3, and the funding rate is indeed positive
Retail shorts, whales long
Core: look at the long-short ratio for people, look at the funding rate for money.
• 80% short (retail): fear of heights, topping out, many people but little money.
• 20% long (whales): few people, but huge capital volume.
• Positive funding rate: total long capital > short capital, longs pay.
Market situation: retail shorts are the fuel, the main force pulls up causing a short squeeze. Brothers, I’ve directly reached enlightenment in the trading arena!
To go long, you must learn to pick coins, and even more importantly, learn to compare them.
Before, I foolishly stubbornly only went long on ETH.
But now looking at it,
$BTC is way stronger than $ETH.
My logic: BTC has already risen above the weekly 5MA,
while ETH is still suppressed by the 5MA.
What does strong mean?
Losing less is what being strong means! Losing more means chips are scattered, naturally weak, and a rebound requires more time for consolidation and recollecting chips before it can rise.
So I’m going long on BTC and short on ETH! $BTC $ETH Trump suddenly claimed that Russia and Ukraine have reached some kind of ceasefire agreement on energy, causing international oil prices to drop immediately. This is actually a brief easing window in external geopolitical risks, which might slightly affect the hot money jumping between various markets.
The impact of this news on my positions must be viewed from two sides. The most troublesome is my $STRK short position with a floating loss of 666%, bought at 0.09188, now at 0.104, held for almost 2 days. If this news raises the overall market risk appetite, it might not be bad for altcoins, but my short position could become more passive. I can only hold on and pray it doesn't keep surging. On the other hand, my slightly profitable $ZEC short, 50x leverage opened at 1338, now at 1328, seems to have a better chance. This asset sometimes correlates with traditional market sentiment; if the risk-off sentiment cools down because of this, it might put some pressure on it, which is an invisible assist for my short. I plan to keep holding and observe if it can drop further.
Of course, the crypto market often doesn't follow logic. If Bitcoin itself stays stable around 84190 or even quietly creeps up, and the overall market sentiment is completely unaffected by external factors, then this oil news is like it never happened for us—pure noise from the outside world.
Keeping a close eye on the market, tightening the wind and pulling the sail.The token here can go up or down. It can go up because the pullback adjustment at 87K has already secured liquidity below on the 4-hour timeframe.
It can go down because the low point of the 4-hour pullback hasn't been fully confirmed yet.
Following the principle of big moves in the main trend and small moves against it, a small adjustment around 83000-82500 could be a chance to go long; if it breaks below 82K, then continue the pullback to find the bottom. Two types of privacy coins. Two completely different mining windows.⛏️
🏴☠️ $ARRR — ASIC mining. 83.8% of the scheduled supply within 2 years.
🐉 $DRGX — CPU mining. Only 25.0% within 2 years.
“No premine” is just part of the story.
Who can mine the supply—and when?
#PrivacyCoins #ZEC #XMR #Dash #比特币mk4 this guy is going crazy! NEAR has been like it's on steroids these past few days, directly breaking the year's high and approaching $6. This guy, relying solely on a long position in NEAR, has a floating profit of over $20 million, with an average price of only 2.35, achieving a return rate of 1491%!
But don't think he got rich by all-in gambling; if you look closely at his positions, this guy is extremely stubborn and tough. In his entire account, NEAR is his only long position, while the other seven coins ($BTC, $ETH, SOL, ADA, etc.) are all short positions! Now that the overall market is rebounding, those short positions are all taking hits, accumulating a floating loss of over $1 million.
However, the profit from his NEAR long position is so huge that after offsetting the longs and shorts, the net floating profit of the entire account is still $19 million! I heard this guy once mistakenly cut losses on a $77 million gold short position, so he seems to be a very storied big player. Now, facing NEAR's surge, he neither reduced his position nor placed orders, showing an impressively large vision.行情真是够磨人的，涨一点跌一点，跌一点又给你拉回来，跟织布机似的来回拉扯，盯着盘面心里直发毛😮💨
不过说真的，这种横盘磨人的阶段，往往就是变盘的前夜。市场情绪现在有点微妙——有人喊着山寨季要来了，有人还在观望等信号。到底是不是，咱往下看👇
$BTC 目前在 74,800 美元附近。上方压力看 76,264 美元（20日均线），再往上是 78,000 美元这个周末反复试探没站稳的位置；下方支撑盯住 73,800 美元（本周低点）和 70,000 美元心理关口。
$ETH 目前在 2,280 美元附近。上方被 2,300 美元（小时图看跌趋势线）压着，突破后看 2,415 美元；下方支撑 2,250 美元是短期关键防线，破了可能去 2,150。
$ZEC 目前在 312 美元附近。上方压力 324 美元（本周高点），下方支撑关注 300 美元整数关口。
跟之前预想的不一样了。今天周一没有出现像样的涨幅，整个盘面反而被地缘政治按着头走。伊朗那边霍尔木兹海峡的停火协议又出变数，油价反弹 8%，加密市场跟着走弱，$BTC 从周末 78,000 的高点一路回落到 74,000 附近。过去 24 小时全市场超过 16 万人爆仓。
现在要重新思考后续的行情情况了。
说几个我注意到的点：
第一，恐慌贪婪指数虽然还在恐慌区（28），但比前几周的极度恐慌（12）已经回升了不少。市场情绪在慢慢修复，不是最差的时候了。
第二，山寨季指数只有 34/100，比特币市占率维持在 59.8% 的高位。说明资金还在 $BTC 这边窝着，山寨轮动还没真正开始。ETF 把机构资金锁在了比特币里，以前那种"BTC 拉完 $ETH 拉，$ETH 拉完山寨拉"的传导链条，这轮明显变慢了。
第三，宏观上美联储利率还在 3.50%-3.75% 没动，降息预期被推到了 9 月以后。高利率环境对风险资产本身就是压制，再加上中东那边不确定性还在，大资金不太敢轻举妄动。
第四，以太坊现货 ETF 上周净流入 2.76 亿美元，32% 的 $ETH 已经被质押。链上供应在收紧，但价格还没反应出来，这种背离值得关注。
我的判断是：短期还是震荡为主，$BTC 大概率在 73,000-78,000 这个箱体里来回磨。76,000 是多空分水岭，站上去才有机会挑战 80,000；跌破 73,800 的话，下面就要看 70,000 了。山寨那边别急着追，等 $BTC 先走出方向再说。
大家怎么看？评论区聊聊 👇
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ BATON's market cap has dropped to 20 million just because it was pump.fun's former company name
Now even meme has gotten competitive in archaeology, an abandoned old name can still be pumped$SNDK 稍微拉一下就是行情彻底反转了？现实点吧！
冲高之后直接掉回来，就这点反弹力度，多头根本没夺回盘面主动权，谈反转实在为时过早。
上面一堆等着跑路的筹码压着，真要把走势彻底掰过来，得实打实的资金进场承接，硬生生突破关键压力位，而不是稍微往上拉一波，转眼就被空头砸回去。
别忘了，存储板块整体的隐患一直都在！$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $龙虾 主流吃肉，龙虾挨揍，同风不同命，说的就是它
凌晨主流币借着油价东风集体爬坡，BTC重回8.4万，ETH也涨了1.6%，盘面总算有点热乎气。
然后龙虾在干嘛？冲了一下，又被打回原形。现价0.041，24小时高点摸到0.045就泄了，跟泄了气的皮球似的。这已经不是第一次了——之前有交易员做多龙虾，浮盈冲到219万美金，最后倒亏90.7万离场，利润全吐回去还倒贴。
为啥主流涨它不涨？因为主流吃的是宏观，油价、美股期货、加密同步拉升，资金往确定性方向走。龙虾吃的是情绪，没基本面，没叙事，全靠一口仙气吊着，推完就散。
风来了猪能飞，风一停，龙虾连壳都找不到。别人在爬坡，它在蹦极，蹦完还趴地上不动了。
操作建议：别因为0.041便宜就手痒抄底。等两种信号：
放量站稳0.045以上，小仓试多，止损0.042下方；
急跌到0.035以下并放量企稳，小仓博反弹。#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $ETH A: What dimensions do $BTC, $ETH, and $NEAR represent when observed together?
B: BTC anchors the market cycle, ETH reflects the overall capital level in the crypto ecosystem, and NEAR indicates developer funding input in the sharded public chain ecosystem.
A: What is the significance of observing them as a group?
B: Observing the three coins together makes it easier to judge whether the sharded L1 sector has formed a sustained trend, compared to just watching the price movements of a single coin.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#TSMC's Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report?
#Institutions continue to position, why does BTC still face pressure? Whales dumping BTC to buy $ETH! Ethereum retracing to 2550 may trigger short liquidations
Direction: Long (buy the dip)
Entry range: 2540–2555
Take profit target: around 2650
Personal view:
Whales sold 410 BTC to switch positions and bought 14,300 ETH, worth $36.14 million, signaling bullish sentiment; short-term funds continue to flow in, with a 1D net inflow of 583 million and a 3D net inflow of 453 million, indicating rebound momentum remains. However, Ethereum Foundation-related wallets transferred 4,393 ETH to Kraken, posing potential selling pressure; heavy short liquidations are concentrated between 2600-2650, and breaking through may trigger a short squeeze.
Positioning basis:
Flow Score +14, short-term funds are bullish, but 7D/15D still show net outflows, indicating a rebound market; price rebounded from the 2405 low, lightly long on the 2540-2555 support zone, aiming to play the breakout of the 2600 short liquidation zone. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, testing rate hike expectations 币圈最赚钱的十大印钞机，你知道都是谁吗？ 先把最反常识的数字放出来： 这十家一年从用户手里收走 140 亿美元。 其中 Tether 和 Circle $CRCL 两家就占了 83 亿——比第 3 到第 10 名加起来还多 47%。 下面是完整榜单，每家一句话说清它靠什么赚钱。 1｜Tether —— 一年 59.5 亿美元 你交 1 美元换 1 个 USDT，它拿你这美元去买美国国债吃利息。 USDT 是它的无息负债，美债是它的资产。 一句话：一门用别人的钱赚钱、还不用付利息的生意。 2｜Circle —— 23.9 亿 和 Tether 一模一样的生意。区别是它把储备公开、把牌照拿齐、还上了市。 一句话：少赚一半，但走合规路线。 3｜$PUMP —— 12.0 亿 谁都能在它这里一键发币，每一笔买入卖出它都抽一次水。 一句话：冲 meme 的人赚不赚不好说，开台子的稳赚台费。 4｜Polymarket —— 4.7 亿 预测市场，把"我觉得会 / 不会"变成可以下注的合约，大选、体育、什么都能押。 一句话：它自己不赌，它抽水。 5｜Uniswap —— 9.5 亿 链上最大的兑换Before buying, users were recommended to authorize channels, but after something went wrong, they had to dig through technical documents and track investigation progress themselves. What would users think? This trust is really hard to restore.
A report on October 11 pointed out that CryptoBilis was once listed in Ledger's dealer directory. Ledger has confirmed that one involved device had unauthorized hardware implants and issued a precautionary alert to users who purchased devices from that channel in the past three months. The full cause and scope of impact are still under investigation, so it cannot be concluded that all devices have issues.
This time, I am more concerned about whether the risk notification can truly reach the buyers. Announcements on the official website and social accounts are certainly useful, but people who bought devices months ago may not follow wallet news daily. Whether the brand and channel can contact these buyers determines how many people the alert can help.
Returns, inspections, and follow-up handling also need someone to take responsibility. Technical investigations may take time, but there should be a clear entry point for which purchase records to keep, who to verify batches with, and how often to update progress. I find it hard to accept leaving users to judge by themselves whether they are affected.
I don't want to hold anyone accountable based on unconfirmed speculation, nor accept just a statement of "channel problem." The trust brought by authorized recommendations is concrete, and the service after an incident should be concrete as well. At least let users know who to contact next, instead of getting more and more anxious reading through a bunch of conflicting posts.
#LedgerInvestigationUpdate: The theft is temporarily concentrated in a single channel $UNITREE 宇树反弹是诱饵，空头还没吃饱
股价从1100砸到414附近，高位空单吃到肉，但别急着追地板。
宇树发行PE 219倍，首日炒到800倍，现在还在300倍上下。上半年营收增48%，扣非利润反降19%，增收不增利。智元出货反超，摩根大通目标价300元，机构偏谨慎。
均线空头排列，反弹无量能配合，持仓量未明显下降，空头结构没松动。急跌后有超跌反弹，没站稳压力位前只当反弹处理。
三季报10月29日披露，扣非和毛利是硬指标，数据出来再定方向。 $STRK Those who can't withstand the volatility in this trade leave first. I opened a position at 0.12 this morning, and it hit the stop-loss line at 0.115. Within less than 20 minutes, my stop-loss was triggered, then it cascaded downwards. The more I covered, the more I lost. I always feel like it's finally bottomed out, but this market simply has no bottom. 牛市里，优质标的迟早会涨，真正考验人的，从来不是发现机会的能力，而是拿得住的能力。
回头看，自己错过了太多。
DASH，低位震荡了很久，好不容易解套，直接跑了。
ZEC，觉得入场价格不够好，赚了点就跑。
ONDO，牛市里其他币都在猛涨，唯独它不动，赚了点也跑了，结果刚卖掉就翻倍。
真正从底部拿到高位的，只有 SUI 和 UNI。
现在才明白，牛市最贵的不是买入价格，而是认知不够坚定，拿不住优质筹码。
多刷推，真的能学到很多东西。发现优质标的，就去问 AI，研究基本面、叙事、估值和风险。逻辑成立，就分批上车；买入之后，只要核心逻辑没变，就别因为短期不涨而轻易下车。
牛市赚大钱的秘诀，不是每天追涨杀跌，而是找到少数真正的好标的，然后给时间一点耐心。
发现机会是本事，拿住机会才是修行。Is it currently a phase of washing out positions or a game of strategy? I'm a bit unsure, but a whale's position has kept me watching for a long time. When "holding on to the death" becomes the only strategy, is it really conviction or just passivity? The latest data dug up by Lookonchain is quite heartbreaking: The Maji account now only has about 1.54 million USD in own assets left, holding just one ETH long position. The nominal position is 17,000 ETH, valued at about 43.25 million USD, with a liquidation price estimated around 2493 USD. Note, the 43.25 million is the position's face value, not his principal. Previously, the weekly floating loss once surged to 8.44 million USD, with continuous position reductions and forced liquidations, leaving only this single surviving position. I personally feel very complex about such accounts. It's not schadenfreude, but a kind of fear of "if it were me, would I make the same choice in the same situation?" The scariest thing about heavy leverage is never the first loss, but the unwillingness to accept the loss afterward, putting all remaining chips on one direction, hoping for a rebound to erase all mistakes. What is the market trading now? On the surface, it's whether ETH can hold the psychological level of 2500, but in reality, it's trading "how many high-leverage longs haven't been liquidated yet." This whale's liquidation price hanging at 2493 means it has become a target watched by the market. Once ETH dips sharply to that range, forced liquidation will release extra selling pressure, potentially triggering more stop losses at similar positions, forming a short burst.$NEAR has hit a new high again. A few days ago, when NEAR was priced at 4.8, I already said that the $ZEC whale is very likely to manipulate NEAR, and the manipulation method is exactly the same. Today, the price has rebounded 25% from the position I called out. Anyone who followed this move is making money. Many people don't fully understand my trading logic and market interpretation, so today I want to explain it to everyone.
NEAR's competitor is $ZAMA, and UNI's competitor is AERO. These projects are ones I have mentioned frequently in the community. You can also see the logic behind my calls: when a project's price is too high in the short term, I actually avoid calling it. Instead, I direct attention to its competitor. For example, when NEAR was priced at 5.6 and ZAMA was low, I told everyone that if you want to buy now, just buy ZAMA directly. Later, ZAMA rebounded to around 0.09, and NEAR dropped to about 4.6. So, a few days ago when I analyzed this sector again, I told everyone to focus on NEAR in the short term. It's that simple: all projects are good, but prices differ in the short term. We need to assess if the price is high and then reevaluate whether to enter.
The same logic applies to UNI and AERO. When UNI was priced at 9.7, I definitely didn't advise entering; I said to buy AERO directly. Recently, UNI has dropped to around 7 $XAUT
Not every crypto asset is about chasing fast pumps.
XAUT is a gold-backed token designed to track the value of physical gold. That makes gold prices, the US dollar, and interest-rate expectations important factors to watch.
If gold strengthens, XAUT may benefit. If gold pulls back, the token can feel that pressure too.
Keep in mind that token prices can also be affected by liquidity, trading spreads, and platform conditions.
Understand what you're holding before making a move.
#XAUT 🔥Oil prices retreat! BTC and gold see bottom support opportunities $BTC $BZ
Core logic: Oil price decline brings positive impact to risk assets
1. Energy news disturbance
Rumors of a ceasefire at Russian-Ukrainian energy facilities lead to a rapid reduction in crude oil risk premium. Trump disclosed agreements related to Russian oil supply and diesel, and the market expects relief in energy supply pressure.
⚠️Key point: Neither Russia nor Ukraine has officially confirmed a ceasefire; the news carries significant uncertainty.
2. Profit-taking at high levels
Previously, Middle East conflicts and attacks on oil tankers pushed oil prices up. Brent crude oil surged to $105.6 per barrel in early trading on October 12, then quickly fell back as funds took profits at high levels.
The decline in oil prices benefits BTC and gold, providing bottom support for these two major assets.
Today, the US Treasury market is closed. The subsequent trends of BTC and gold depend on US Treasury yield pricing.
Market focus is on the CPI data on the 14th, which will directly affect interest rate hike expectations!刷到狗狗币核心开发者在社区里发了两条招募帖。你猜招的是什么——日语母语者，帮忙校对文档翻译。不用写代码，不用懂技术，只要日语好就行。
我看到这个的时候笑了好久。一个加密货币项目，在招人翻译文档，而且招的是日语翻译。这画面太可爱了。
笑完之后我认真想了想。一个项目开始在意文档翻译的时候，说明它开始认真对待“用户”了。不是只服务英语圈的人，不是只让懂技术的人玩。它想让日本人也能看懂怎么用。
后来又看到一条，狗狗币的核心开发者正在招人，文档、翻译、社区管理，各种岗位都在扩。一个去中心化的社区项目，靠的不是发工资招人，靠的是有人自愿站出来干活。有人愿意干，说明有人在乎。$DOGE 社区的底子，比很多人想象的要厚。 Spot ETF data situation:
Bitcoin saw a net outflow of about $680 million last week, marking the first outflow after three consecutive weeks of inflows, while the second largest also experienced an outflow of $540 million, indicating a phase of capital rotation.
The core reasons remain the usual three: rising US Treasury yields, strengthening oil prices, and a stronger US dollar.
The situation may become more complex going forward, as the existing on-exchange funds can no longer drive new trends; instead, inflation data and spot trading will take the lead! There is little short-term participation value, so it’s better to wait gradually for mid- to long-term buying opportunities at lower prices.#Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $542 million last week
[Old Leek Observation] Is BlackRock about to run away?
Ethereum spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $542 million last week, with funds flowing out for 9 consecutive trading days, totaling about $697 million.
What’s more noteworthy is that BlackRock’s ETHA product alone had an outflow of about $477 million, accounting for nearly 90% of the market’s weekly net outflow.
This indicates that the fund withdrawal is not evenly distributed across all products. But don’t rush to conclude that institutions are collectively bearish: ETF fund flows reflect the net result of subscriptions and redemptions, which does not mean all funds are actively selling coins, nor can one judge a long-term change in Ethereum’s logic based on just one week’s data.
I’m more focused on two signals going forward:
First, whether ETF outflows will continue to expand;
Second, even if ETF outflows persist, whether the ETH spot price can hold steady.
If funds keep withdrawing and prices keep weakening, it means buying pressure is under stress; if outflows start to narrow but prices can hold, the market may already be absorbing this selling pressure. $ETH $MAGIC ✨FIL surges with volume! Supply contraction brings bullish opportunities
FIL 4H | Current price 1.2430
Resistance: previous high 1.2769
Support: 1.2297
The chart shows a strong bullish candlestick with price rising above all short-term EMA lines, indicating strong bullish momentum.
Holding above 1.2769, the bullish trend can continue; if it breaks below 1.2297, a short-term pullback and consolidation phase will occur.
News: Filecoin's six-year vesting period is nearing completion, reducing annual token release by 68 million, supply contraction brings positive expectations.
$BTC $ETH $FILOriginally, I had already complained to my friends about this week's market, but I have to take back my words, a bit awkward. $RAY This short position was not in vain. Yesterday afternoon, before the market fully started, I saw RAY's rebound was weak, no one was buying on the rise, the high short structure was still intact.
Shorted at 2.4687, now at 2.4113, +46.5% in hand. Feeling good, brothers.
Taking profits on 80% first, leaving 20% with the stop loss at the cost price, if it continues to drop, let the profits run. Don't get greedy with profits, don't despair with pullbacks.
For those who haven't entered yet, don't rush, chasing shorts can easily get taught by a rebound, wait for a new structure to appear. There are still opportunities, don't be anxious.
$BTC $XRP Total unrealized profit +14.6U. Thanks to ETH's godlike performance, the account was dragged back from hell to earth!
🌟 $ETH: Absolute MVP! Opened at 2,501.22, current price 2,563.64, 20X long position, wildly earned +62.43U (+49.92%). A violent rally saved the day, forced liquidation at 2,386, holding steady to see if it can break 2600!
🌧️ $BTC: Crazy bloodsucking! Opened at 82,544.12, current price 83,984.01, 20X short position, huge loss -43.19U (-34.88%). Shorting brutally squeezed, all profits swallowed, forced liquidation at 86,333, gritting teeth to hold on.
🍂 $TRX: Half dead. Opened at 0.3353, current price 0.3322, 20X long position, floating loss -4.64U (-18.49%). Continuous slow decline, still a breath away from forced liquidation at 0.3208, playing dead with eyes closed.
One profit and two losses, all carried by ETH. Thanks to the dog dealer's mercy for not killing, good morning brothers, go have some hot food!👇
$BTC $ETH $TRX
#CPI and PPI announcements imminent, interest rate hike expectations face test
#Russia-Ukraine may reach "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits new high, what to watch for in the October 15 earnings report? 微软CEO纳德拉：把AI当内部风险防，随时准备急停
微软 CEO 萨蒂亚·纳德拉发长文，主张把 AI 模型当作企业内部安全风险管理。模型即使没有恶意，也可能犯错或被攻击者利用。尤其当它能读取敏感数据、替人执行关键操作时，企业不能只信模型厂商的安全承诺。
他要求把模型与调度任务的 Harness（Agent 执行框架）分开。模型能读什么数据、调用什么工具，必须由外部系统控制。每次关键操作都应留下防篡改、方便人类审查的记录。他还要求模型思维链（展示出的推理过程）透明，但承认这些内容未必可靠。
最强硬的一条是，从部署时就假定模型可能遭到入侵，并做好隔离。授权人员必须能在 Agent 执行任务时随时暂停或关闭它，相当于装上「紧急刹车」。模型不能自己审核自己的行为，企业还要持续测试故障和攻击，及时披露事故。
微软本月已宣布 MXC 隔离工具在 Windows 正式可用。它通过外部策略限制 Agent 能访问的文件和网络。$FIL 狗庄你出来，我保证不打死你。
六年啊，我拿着这玩意儿从信仰拿到怀疑人生，解锁解锁解锁，解到现在才算快结束了。结果好处没轮到我，先来一根大阳线给你看。
我第一个反应不是开心，是不敢信。是不是又想骗我接盘。
群里老哥一句“利空出尽变利好”，我听完更慌了，这话我前几年听了不下十遍，哪次不是出尽了我还在山顶。
不解释，也不喊单。被套的兄弟自己对号入座，我先去泡杯茶压压惊。$FIL Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$RSR large sell order cost decreased. Simulated slippage for a 100,000 scale sell dropped from 0.84% to 0.61%.
$ZRO large buy order cost decreased. Simulated slippage for a 100,000 scale buy dropped from 0.56% to 0.48%.
$S after amplifying orders, slippage on both buy and sell sides increased significantly. Simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.13%/0.13%, for 100,000 scale it is 0.59%/0.53%.Seeing a short-term long position 📈 trading opportunity:
A couple of days ago, #BTC made a fake breakdown, then recovered back inside the range
There is a high probability it will form an AMD pattern
The liquidity above is still there
⚠️ Entry suggestion:
$82500---$83600 to enter long 📈📈
Stop loss: $80500
Take profit: $86000
It is estimated that it will still break the previous high, hit the liquidity above, and then pull back downwardThe price change column is green, but the price has retreated
$WLD's performance in the afternoon makes me lower my expectations a bit. The price is around 0.554, still up about 0.8% in 24 hours, but compared to around 0.579 last night, it has actually fallen about 4.3%.
This is why you can't just look at the price change column. The 24-hour increase compares to one day ago; whether the price has held since last night is another matter.
I'm more concerned whether it can climb back up after this pullback. The previous rise did happen, but now the gains have been given back, so the short-term assessment must be adjusted accordingly, and we can't keep using last night's optimism.
$BICO is still weak, so I won't raise its ranking for now. It fell about 2.4% in the past 24 hours and about 11.8% in the past week, with the price around 0.0186.
The daily drop doesn't look too dramatic, but the cumulative pressure over the week is significant. I'll first see if the decline can stop. Occasional rebounds are not hard to come by; the difficult part is that the price doesn't get pushed down again afterward. If that step isn't achieved, it's better to watch more and act less.
For $HYPE, I want to try a different way to observe: watch its reaction to the overall market rise. If the market goes up, it follows slowly; if the market dips slightly, it falls quickly, then there's no need to rush to raise expectations.
Conversely, if it can keep up with the rise and hold progress during pullbacks, then the evaluation can improve. This is a better test of short-term strength than prematurely assuming a certain round number will definitely be broken through.Whales dumping BTC to buy $ETH! Ethereum retracing to 2550 may trigger short liquidations
Direction: Long (buy the dip)
Entry range: 2540–2555
Take profit target: around 2650
Personal view:
Whales sold 410 BTC to switch positions and bought 14,300 ETH, worth $36.14 million, signaling bullish sentiment; short-term funds continue to flow in, with a 1D net inflow of 583 million and a 3D net inflow of 453 million, indicating rebound momentum remains. However, Ethereum Foundation-related wallets transferred 4,393 ETH to Kraken, posing potential selling pressure; heavy short liquidations are concentrated between 2600-2650, and breaking through may trigger a short squeeze.
Positioning basis:
Flow Score +14, short-term funds are bullish, but 7D/15D still show net outflows, indicating a rebound market; price rebounded from the 2405 low, lightly long on the 2540-2555 support zone, aiming to play the breakout of the 2600 short liquidation zone. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, testing rate hike expectations $SNDK this morning I chose to go long on SanDisk over Erbing, Erbing went up, SanDisk went down, and now it's almost liquidated. Seeing how sharply the A-shares are falling today, it feels like the chance of liquidation today is quite high.#ASML Q3 Earnings Report to be Released on October 14, EUV Orders in Focus
Key points to watch in the earnings report:
Don't be misled by the current quarter's revenue and profit; the focus must be on forward-looking order indicators and structural breakdowns. The unit price of lithography machines is high, with delivery cycles lasting 12 to 24 months, so the current quarter's revenue and net profit only reflect the fulfillment of orders from the past 1 to 2 years. New orders and backlog of undelivered orders are the true barometers determining performance and stock price trends over the next 1 to 3 years.
The ratio of EUV to DUV in net orders. A surge in EUV orders indicates strong demand from advanced process customers; a high proportion of DUV reflects more on mature process and expansion pace in the Chinese market.
ASML usually releases multi-year revenue and gross margin scenario targets (such as the 2030 outlook). Whether management reiterates, raises, or lowers this long-term range during each earnings call has a significant impact on valuation benchmarks.
On the day of the release, you need to focus on:
1. Capturing the quick report: compare Net Bookings, Revenue, Gross Margin with market consensus;
2. Reading the investor presentation: review charts of Logic/Memory and regional sales proportions;
3. Listening to/reading the earnings call: note qualitative answers regarding geopolitical policies, delivery bottlenecks, and long-term guidance.
$ASML Don't rush to judge the top; first see who is buying.
This round of increase is not driven by everyone buying.
Bitcoin overnight returned above 83,000.
Data doesn't lie.
In 13 trading days, net inflow was only 232 million—
while on September 21 alone, 999 million came in, and on the 22nd, another 714.8 million. Then it went quiet.
On September 30, net outflow was 148.7 million, breaking the continuous rise. October 7 and 8 saw the two largest net outflows in 13 days, totaling 731.2 million.
More importantly, who is buying.
On Friday, net inflow was 21.13 million; BlackRock's IBIT alone took in 22.38 million, Fidelity's FBTC had an outflow of 3.58 million, and 9 out of 12 funds had zero flow. IBIT accounts for 63% of total assets.
This is not institutions buying. This is one company buying.
The price has already risen, yet no funds have confirmed it.
Don't rush to judge the top or bottom; wait for the next opening to see if the money returns.
Can one fund revive Bitcoin's rebound?Ledger’s update points to a channel-control problem more than a proven platform-wide breach: confirmed cases involve CryptoBilis-sold devices, while direct sales and Ledger systems show no signs of compromise. The key unresolved risk is traceability across reseller inventory, because suspected losses and the implant’s wider link remain unverified.
#LedgerResellerSecurity