wesley教授
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
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The Middle East card, the political wind has been quietly shifting these past two days. The U.S. Secretary of State's first trip abroad after the midterm election loss was to discuss diplomacy, Senator Sanders publicly called on the new Congress to cut funding for the war against Iran, and even the Republican Party's blow in this election is attributed by many to the war driving up oil prices.
Many people instinctively think "war = safe haven = bullish for gold and $BTC," but in the past two years, it has often been the opposite: war pushes up oil prices, oil prices feed inflation, inflation forces the Fed to continue tightening, and in the end, gold and Bitcoin both get hit. So what really matters is not where the missiles land, but where oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields are headed.
Of course, Kyiv experienced another round of explosions last night; the de-escalation is just a trend for now, far from settled. This situation is still a tug of war, so don't rush to bet on either side.
What should be remembered most this week is not which candlestick, but the non-farm payroll report. October added over 160,000 jobs, roughly three times the expectation, unemployment rate continued to decline, and hourly wages rose — this is a solid report that slaps the "rate cut bull" narrative in the face.
Once the data was released, the market's bet on a December rate hike jumped directly from over 60% to around 80%, gold prices dropped more than thirty dollars in response, and the 10-year US Treasury yield pushed back up. Yet on the same day, the US stock market rebounded from oversold levels, showing signs of "bad news already priced in."
This kind of "rising against strong data" market behavior is historically rented time nine times out of ten. Don't fight the fundamentals, and especially don't go against the Federal Reserve. With hard data pressing down, the shelf life of this rebound won't be very long.
Someone asked again in the background: $BTC dropped from eighty thousand to just over seventy-five thousand, is it the bottom to buy now? I don't look at sentiment, I look at structure.
Hold on to two data points tightly. First, the perpetual funding rate is still mildly positive, nowhere near the level of extreme short squeeze or deeply negative rates — the real bottom often comes when shorts are squeezed out and funding rates turn deeply negative, which is far from now. Second, the main liquidations these days are longs, not shorts, indicating the deleveraging meat grinder hasn't stopped yet.
A low-volume rebound means anyone rushing in can easily get stuck halfway up the mountain. Oversold doesn't mean bottomed; oversold just means it dropped a bit too fast earlier. If you want to bottom-fish, first ask yourself what you will use to withstand a second dip.
Closing on Friday, this week gave traders two slaps: systemic deleveraging on Thursday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor index dropped ten points in one day, and on Friday there was an oversold rebound with semiconductors recovering slightly. The most uncomfortable are those chasing highs and selling lows back and forth.
People often ask me how to handle this kind of market. My boring answer: light positions, less trading, wait. The financing chain fueling this AI arms race hasn't truly loosened yet; this rebound, in my view, is rented time, not a change in direction.
Playing cards for over a decade taught me one thing: low-frequency big bets are not about frequently switching directions guessing ups and downs, but about identifying the big hands and saving bullets for the real betting points. $BTC is still hovering around seventy-five thousand; I'm not in a hurry. Whether you made or lost money this week, share in the comments.
I am very fortunate to have successfully avoided the October downturn crisis with no losses. There are two main reasons for this:
First, I usually focus on cultivating my worldview, outlook on life, and values. I constantly pay attention to domestic and international news, keep up-to-date with global situations and domestic developments, carefully analyze various risk-reward ratios in the stock market, study various indicators, and combine this with years of accumulated investment experience and calm, rational judgment. Occasionally, I also review university textbooks related to economics and finance to deepen my skills in capital market risk management.
Second, I lost everything in July
A reminder for those still waiting for $BTC to have an independent rally: in this cycle, it’s long stopped being "digital gold."
Just overlay this week’s price action and it becomes clear: on Thursday, the US stock market underwent systemic deleveraging, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped ten points in a day, and BTC slid from eighty thousand to seventy-five thousand; on Friday, stocks rebounded sharply from oversold levels, and crypto immediately followed suit, almost mirroring the rhythm exactly. The current BTC is essentially a high-beta tech stock hanging on Nasdaq—when risk appetite contracts, it falls faster than anyone else.
So stop using the old narratives like "halving," "ETF," or "institutional entry" to explain a market that purely follows US stock risk appetite. Until AI deleveraging eases, expecting crypto to rally independently is mistaking beta for alpha.
Do you still believe BTC can have an independent rally this cycle?
There are always people in the background scoring my judgments based on a single day's rise or fall. On Thursday, following the bearish view felt comfortable; on Friday, after a rebound, someone immediately asked: Did the bear god get it wrong?
This is a typical "result-oriented" thinking. The most harmful mindset in trading is to use single-day profits and losses to judge whether a decision was right or wrong. A correct decision can still lose money in the short term; a purely lucky bottom-fishing can make you feel good for a day. If you only focus on the results, sooner or later you'll turn good habits into bad ones.
My bearish stance this time is never about any single day's candlestick, but about the valuation built up by AI's current round of debt and mutual support. Until this logic breaks, a few points of rebound in between won't change the direction.
Don't sentence yourself to death based on one bullish candle, nor award yourself a prize because of one bullish candle. Are you often led by single-day profits and losses too?
A small piece of news that's easy to overlook: Google spent $548 million to buy shares in Qualcomm.
It seems insignificant on its own, but if you connect the dots over the past year: Nvidia investing in its own customers, Microsoft and OpenAI binding together, OpenAI's valuation dropping from 1.4 trillion to 1.25 trillion and still relying on big companies to stay afloat, now it's Google's turn to buy stock in a chip manufacturer.
This is not just a simple strategic investment; it's the AI ecosystem using each other's balance sheets to support one another. Money from the left hand flows into the right hand, then is recorded as the right hand's revenue and valuation. The tighter this cycle, the more it shows one thing: the phase of propping up valuations with external real money is coming to an end, and everyone is starting to band together for mutual support.
Banding together can hold up for a while, but it can't sustain the fundamentals. The real focus should be on which link in this chain will lose funding first. Which link do you think it will be?
The Middle East has become tense again these days: two missiles hit Qeshm Island at dawn, and a US MQ-9 drone was shot down; meanwhile, someone passed a message to Trump saying that the "time window for restarting large-scale military operations is narrowing," and a decision must be made before the new Congress takes office in January next year.
Many people reflexively think "risk-off, bullish for gold and $BTC" when they see war breaking out. This is like carving a mark on a boat to find a sword. If a real war breaks out, the market's first reaction will be a jump in oil prices and rising inflation expectations, followed by a repricing of rate hike expectations. This week's nonfarm payrolls were already hawkish enough, and Daly is still calling for further tightening. Against this backdrop, war is not a risk-off story; it adds fuel to "more rate hikes," and gold and BTC are more likely to be pressed down together.
So don't blindly go long just because of geopolitical news. First ask yourself: where will this news ultimately land on the interest rate spectrum?
With this Middle East escalation, do you see it as risk-off or as a reason for rate hikes?
