福禄寿炒币版
福禄寿炒币版
牛熊现货周期信仰者，一定能炒币致富！
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Since I started trading crypto, my sleep quality has been getting worse year by year. I wake up at night and can't help but check the market, then I couldn't resist adding 40,000 UNI at 6.85U. The US stock market is bursting the AI bubble, but what does that have to do with the crypto world? The crypto bubble has mostly been squeezed out already. Bitcoin's fundamentals haven't changed at all; it's still in a box range oscillation between 75,000 and 85,000 USD. $UNI
The USDT price may stabilize in the short term and not continue to decline. The central bank announced today that starting from November 15, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio will be raised from 4% to 6%, an increase of 2 percentage points. This is the first increase in nearly 5 years, timed just after the RMB broke above 6.65, reaching a new high in over four years. The central bank's main intention this time is to cool down the rapid appreciation of the RMB.
Intel's market value is currently about $344 billion, dropping from around $128 at the end of September to $64.73, a 50% decline, halving in one month. This sharp drop is mainly due to the disappointing Q4 earnings forecast. PC sales are weak, there is demand for server chips, but a factory accident has affected supply, and further investment is needed for expansion. $INTC
Google's Q3 earnings report disappointed the market greatly. AI has brought growth opportunities but has also started to disrupt the previously most profitable search advertising model. Search ad revenue fell short of expectations, while AI investments continue to increase, putting growing pressure on cash flow. The market's concerns are understandable, but the sell-off has been so brutal—could it be somewhat oversold? $GOOGL
Why is the sentiment in the crypto community so cold around Bitcoin's $80,000 mark? Because Bitcoin's price no longer represents the account balances of most retail investors.
The core reason is that many people's main holdings are not in Bitcoin but in altcoins, which can drop 90% and then fall another 90%. Repeated crashes, unlocking, and chasing hot trends have drained not only confidence but also the principal needed to keep participating. Some people don't want to play anymore; they simply don't have the money to continue.
Those who remain are also less willing to pay up. Projects launch with fully diluted valuations of tens of billions of dollars before their products and revenues have proven themselves, selling future expectations to retail investors in advance. New narratives lack breakthroughs, old concepts are repackaged to keep issuing tokens, and Meme has become a zero-sum game of speed and information asymmetry. After several rounds of harvesting, people naturally don't want to easily carry the burden again.
Moreover, capital has more options now. Binance announced on October 15 that its tokenized US stock product bStocks has accumulated over $40 billion in trading volume, with assets under management exceeding $1 billion. This doesn't directly prove that altcoin funds have moved to US stocks, but it does indicate that US stock assets are competing for the same users' money and attention. When participating in US stocks becomes as convenient as buying crypto, why should crypto projects expect investors to keep paying for a story that hasn't yet been realized?
Adding macroeconomic uncertainty makes it even harder for capital to sustain high risk. The market isn't completely lacking liquidity; rather, there isn't enough incremental capital willing to flow into altcoins, and the limited funds are increasingly dispersed across more tokens.
It's rare, Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has spoken, expressing a desire to end the war, but only on the condition that Iran's demands are met. He also doesn't want this to drag on with intermittent fighting. As soon as the news broke, oil prices plummeted, gold rebounded, and U.S. Treasury yields declined. In fact, the market is hoping for a quick resolution. However, wanting to negotiate is one thing; whether the conditions can be agreed upon is another. Next, it depends on how Trump responds.
Anthropic, the company behind Claude, has officially launched its IPO process. The cash and short-term investments on hand total about $132 billion, and it still needs to continue raising funds, showing how capital-intensive this AI race is. In the coming years, continuous investment in computing power, electricity, and data centers will be necessary. Going public is also a way to prepare funds in advance to cope with subsequent cash flow pressures. After all, computing power must be booked in advance, but customer payments come in slowly.
The competition in AI is fierce. Betting early on the next few years means that if demand keeps up, the computing power locked in today becomes an advantage; but slow realization means long-term contracts can turn into cash flow pressure. Investors are also betting on this time gap, committing their funds upfront.
A few days ago, a fan told me that you always hold half your position in spot and half in U. When the price goes up, you show off your NEAR holdings to brag, and when it goes down, you boast about still having half in U to catch the bottom. You brag regardless of the price going up or down. I've talked many times about the importance of reasonable position allocation. Can't you understand?
The remaining half of the funds will only be added in two situations: one is a black swan event causing panic selling, creating a clear opportunity for a bargain; the second is when liquidity continuously improves and the trend is confirmed. $BTC $NEAR
Today's market gives me the feeling that all altcoins are ready to dive, just waiting for strict father BTC to give the order. But unexpectedly, strict father is reluctant to start the drop and is still holding on to the last bit of stubbornness. $BTC
After so many years of trading crypto, the biggest insight is that opportunities come from waiting. The market is never short of volatility, but chances worth committing heavy positions to are rare. Grabbing a few well-odds opportunities often beats watching the market daily and frequently switching between long and short.
Investing is about patience, judgment, and position management; more trades don’t mean higher returns. The principle is simple: in a choppy market, keep half your position and wait, reserving your capital and energy for truly worthwhile moments to act.
