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Actually, there is no need to over-interpret this multinational South China Sea military exercise involving the US, Japan, and others, because it is clearly a military move to boost Trump's midterm elections and Japanese militarism. 1. This exercise is led by Japan, which relatively downplays the military tensions between China and the US to avoid direct clashes (Japan can take the blame). 2. This is not the first multinational joint exercise; previous ones like Sword 23 and Sword 25 were also multinational joint drills. #MiddleEast energy risks are heating up, and international oil prices remain high 3. The core of this exercise revolves around Japan as the center, testing the practical combat system of the northern and northeastern segments of the first island chain. It is a drill, a military exercise, a show of strength, but it is definitely not a direct military campaign. The US cannot afford the cost, nor can its allies like Japan. No one is prepared for a show match to turn into actual combat. 4. Trump faces significant pressure from the military and Congress internally, especially after developing operations against Iran. The hawkish views within the US believe that America will lose control over the first island chain, so as the midterm elections approach, Trump needs to show strength to prove the value of the US military and its allies' presence in the first island chain. 5. The scale of allied participation in the joint exercise is large, but it is not really about gathering to take action against China. Instead, Trump is preparing to let allies deeply take over the first island chain defense system, gradually reducing US military and financial investment there. For the military hardliners, it is acceptable for allies to increase cooperative defense efforts, but not acceptable for the US military to abandon military deterrence against China. 6. The current Japanese Prime Minister is deeply tied to the US and has taken the initiative this time