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Since the U.S. stock market opened, it has shifted from rising to falling indexes. This is not because the AI narrative is weak, but as I mentioned earlier, approaching the second half of the U.S. stock market, the guiding narrative shifts from AI earnings reports to Fed policy. The market basically expects no rate hike in October, and even a hawkish pause in October has been fully priced in by the market. Therefore, there is not much room for a hawkish tone in tonight's speech by Waller. So the rhythm of the U.S. stock market going forward is simple: before the Fed rate decision and Waller's speech, risk markets will remain cautious with slight declines, showing respect and caution toward Fed policy. After Waller's speech, as long as the hawkish tone does not exceed expectations, the U.S. stock market will most likely rebound. Furthermore, with good earnings expectations from Microsoft and Google, the market may close with a rebound. Regarding Waller's speech, there is actually limited room to be more hawkish than expected. The mainstream market expectation is a pause in October and a rate hike in December. Currently, the probability of a December rate hike is 77.9%, which is already preliminarily fully priced in. This means maintaining the current rate with inflation still high and the committee prepared to tighten policy further if necessary is within expectations. Therefore, Waller has limited room to be more hawkish than expected unless, besides pushing for a December hike, he also pushes for more hikes in the future, which would be an unexpectedly hawkish stance. When Waller speaks, we can categorize the possibilities as follows: #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Pause rate hikes + emphasize data dependence = dovish Pause rate hikes + inflation still high + keep rate hike option = basically expected hawkish pause Pause rate hikes + clearly/implied December possible