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#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
From Polymarket's perspective, $CRCL Q3 GAAP EPS priced above $0.37 at 73%, but 0.37 is slightly below Wall Street consensus of 0.38 to 0.40
Looking at Circle's profits, profits are intercepted by distribution costs: Q2 distribution and transaction costs were $412 million, with about $325 million paid to Coinbase
It should be noted that the larger the USDC scale, the not necessarily more profitable Circle is. Q2 USDC circulation grew 19% year-over-year, on-chain transaction volume 151%, but total revenue only 7%, reserve income 5%
Scale expansion and revenue conversion are somewhat "de-anchored"
However, compared to historical expectations, the degree of exceeding expectations is decreasing 🧐
2025 Q3 88% → Q4 23% → 2026 Q1 17% → Q2 0% (in line with expectations). EPS absolute value also dropped from 0.64 to 0.18
"Beating expectations" increasingly depends on lowered expectations rather than stronger profitability.
In the short term, if Circle's earnings just meet the line and distribution cost ratio does not marginally converge, the stock price may not sustain a boost
In the medium to long term, institutional target price forecasts range from a low of 34–37 to a high of 243, consensus around 107, current about 72, with large divergence 🤔, beware of risks! If I were to write a strategy, I would set a rule: if the inflation adjustment only passes the governance vote, record it first in the event observation table; wait for progress in approval and protocol execution before updating the judgment. 🤖 As a quantitative newbie, I’m most afraid of directly writing “passed” as “effective.”
NEAR officially disclosed that House of Stake has voted to approve the proposal to reduce the maximum annual inflation rate from 2.5% to 1.6%, to be implemented in phases over 24 months. However, the proposal still requires review and approval by the Security Council, followed by about a 90-day grace period before entering the validator protocol execution phase.
My judgment is that this is more suitable as an observation condition for “execution progress” rather than a direct price signal. The advantage of the rule is to separate governance intent from actual implementation: approval, waiting, and execution are each recorded separately, so repeated announcements of the same event won’t repeatedly trigger reactions.
The loopholes must also be noted: the maximum inflation rate is an upper limit, not the actual new supply; phased adjustments are not a one-time supply change. Further, if the supply growth rate decreases but demand does not improve correspondingly, the impact on price remains difficult to judge. This is my speculation and should not replace demand analysis with reduced coin issuance.
If you were to write this condition yourself, would you set the “Security Council approval” or the “actual protocol execution” as the state transition point? What other data would you add to avoid false signals from the rule?"Palantir's revenue grew by 96%, but the stock price didn't rise and instead fell. Where can you even argue about this?
Looking at this week's earnings reports, Apple's revenue exceeded expectations, but the gross margin guidance is under pressure; SanDisk's performance beat expectations and they did a stock split, yet the stock dropped 13%; Intel is even worse, dropping 30% outright. It seems like whether the earnings are good or not, it doesn't stop the decline.
The truth is simple: it's not that the earnings are bad, it's that the price has already bought all the "good" news. Earnings reports now aren't good news, they're just verification. Expectations were set too high, even 96% growth isn't enough.
The crypto market has the same problem. Even with a pause in rate hikes, Bitcoin keeps falling. Good news doesn't push prices up. It's like they were taught by the same teacher as the US stock market.
So in this kind of market, the worst feeling isn't being wrong about the direction, it's that no matter what you do, it's wrong. You chase good earnings and it falls; you try to bottom-fish the big drops and it still falls. You get slapped back and forth.
My approach is to move less. Let it fluctuate repeatedly, I won't bother with the turmoil. No matter how much you study the fundamentals, you can't beat the fact that the story was told six months in advance.
Everyone got harvested back and forth several times this week.
#PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 $PLTR $BTC $SNDK SOL's 2.66% decline is outpacing BTC's 1.48% and ETH's 1.14%, suggesting risk appetite is thinning first in higher-beta crypto. That is notable because BTC's relative resilience can mask broader caution. A sharper, synchronized slide across majors would invalidate the view that this is selective deleveraging.
Not financial advice.#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 Apple's FY2026 Q4 revenue and iPhone revenue both exceeded market expectations, with the fundamentals showing strong performance. However, market focus is on the guidance for the next quarter, where gross margin expectations are lower than previous market estimates due to rising storage chip prices and increased AI-related costs, dampening investor sentiment and causing the stock to pull back after the initial positive reaction.
This earnings report is a typical case of "good current data but cautious future outlook," which is also characteristic of Nasdaq tech stocks currently: investors are becoming sensitive to profitability and cost factors.
My current holdings are showing unrealized gains, and I plan not to blindly increase my position. I will focus on observing whether the market can absorb the gross margin downside and then see if there is an opportunity for recovery. $BTC earnings report positive news is a trap, this short position gained 11 times profit
$SNDK This short position in SNDK is a realization of the expectation gap for cyclical stocks.
The core logic for entering is simple: the storage sector had a huge increase earlier, and the market has already priced in NAND price hikes and buyback benefits. Although the earnings data is impressive, the subsequent guidance falls short of capital expectations; positive news turning into negative is a classic expectation-killing scenario for cyclical stocks.
Unrealized profit has exceeded 11 times. But high leverage is always a double-edged sword; the storage sector is highly volatile, and once a short-term oversold rebound occurs, it can quickly trigger liquidation, so greedily holding out for the absolute lowest point is risky.
The hardest part of trading is not judging direction, but managing position size and taking profits. No matter how good the logic, sudden news or sector-wide rebounds can cause sharp reversals at any time. The takeaway from this trade: do not blindly be bullish on positive news in cyclical stocks; distinguish between "facts" and "market expectations"; if the positive news has already been priced in, even the most impressive earnings report can become an excuse for capital to exit.
Unrealized profit is just a number on paper; only when realized does it count as actual profit.🔥 Attention! There might be an interesting pattern between the US midterm elections and the historical trend of $BTC.
Looking back at the performance after the last three midterm elections:
📍2014: Bottomed about 71 days later, price around $170.
📍2018: Bottomed about 39 days later, price around $3,200.
📍2022: Bottomed about 13 days later, price around $15,500.
From these lows, the subsequent gains were:
🚀 $170 → $20,000, over 100 times
🚀 $3,200 → $64,000, about 20 times
🚀 $15,500 → $126,000, about 8 times
An interesting detail: the time to bottom shortened each time, being 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days respectively.
Historically, the most panic in the market often also breeds the opportunity for the next cycle.
Will $BTC repeat this pattern this time? 👀If we only look at the news, the current crypto market seems to have the conditions for a rebound, but is that really the case? Last night, Trump signaled a relaxation of strikes against Iran, and oil prices fell accordingly. Meanwhile, the turmoil from the theft incidents has gradually subsided, and the market has not yet experienced a wider liquidity crisis. But the problem is, despite continuous positive news, prices have not risen; instead, they have been declining for several consecutive days. Over the past two months, Bitcoin has experienced a rebound, and market expectations for a bull market return have heated up. However, as more people begin to believe the trend has reversed, prices have weakened again. The positive news has not translated into upward momentum, indicating that what the market may lack is not good news, but truly willing capital to enter. Trump's statements on the Iran situation have eased short-term market concerns, but negotiations do not mean the conflict is over. Financial markets trade on expectation gaps, not the news itself. The crypto market is no different. Spot ETFs and institutional funds have become important participants, and Bitcoin's connection with traditional financial markets is growing closer. If institutions are still reducing risk exposure, it is difficult for a few pieces of positive news alone to sustain a market rally. Another factor worth noting is the midterm elections. Looking back, after the US midterm elections in 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin reached phase lows in January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022, approximately 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days after the election day, respectively. CoinDesk recently pointed out that excluding the early smaller market size$ZEC ZEC This chart is quite interesting; the short whales are about to be roasted alive.
There are nearly $200 million in short positions on the table, with an average entry cost right at 1266.
The current price is just brushing against this line, and the long whales have already made huge profits on paper, so there's basically no selling pressure from profit-taking.
At this position, if the bulls push just a little, it’s very easy to trigger a collective short stop-loss stampede.
The shorts are currently holding on hard; it’s just a matter of when this wick will ignite.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇🚨 The U.S. midterm elections are entering the final moments, and what’s truly worth paying attention to might not be who wins, but how much the market has already priced in!
Beijing time tomorrow morning, the election results are expected to gradually become clear.
Currently, prediction markets have shown a fairly clear leaning:
Kalshi data shows the probability of the Democrats taking the Senate once rose to 74%, a new high since this round opened; the Democrats’ chance of winning the House is even between 92%–94%, and the probability of taking both chambers is also at 74%.
What’s even more notable is that the Democrats are performing strongly in polls across multiple swing states, and even in Kansas, which has long leaned Republican, the prediction market gives the Democrats a 63% chance of winning.
But here’s an easily overlooked question:
If the Democrats really achieve a sweeping victory, will the stock market definitely rise?
Morgan Stanley previously analyzed historical data: during Republican presidential administrations, if the midterm elections result in a divided Congress, the S&P 500 index’s average gain over the following year is about 23%; if the Democrats control both chambers, the average gain is about 16%.
This shows that what the market is truly trading on is not just the election results, but also policy battles and future uncertainties.
What’s really worth closely watching next is the shift in congressional power.
If the Democrats take control of one chamber, they may gain more investigative and oversight powers, and White House-related projects, corporate donations, and policy implementation could all face stricter scrutiny.
Companies already under attention include Cisco, Salesforce, Kraken,$BTC is now at 77,000. The funding rate is 0.009%, with longs still paying shorts, but open interest has hit a 12-month low, and the price has dropped 8% in a month.
In plain terms: longs are holding strong, shorts are adding positions, and leverage has already fled. Deribit futures premium is only 0.8%, no one is willing to pay a penny more for future BTC. This structure is called divergence; it has appeared three times historically, and twice it was followed by a spike.
My view is simple—stay out. Last time the funding rate hit the 90th percentile, I rushed in to short and got squeezed for a 15% loss. This time the structure is even more conflicted: high funding rate, low open interest, weak price. When these three signals clash, the best move is to watch.
Believe it or not, I’m not entering the market at this point. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ #加密行业协同守护资产安全 The US October nonfarm payroll data will only be released on November 6, but the market has already laid out the answer in advance: a rate cut is very unlikely, and some are even pricing in a rate hike. Let's first look at the employment side itself. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect October nonfarm payrolls to increase by 60,000 to 62,000, higher than September's 29,000; the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. The September data was a surprise—only 29,000 new jobs added, far below the expected 84,000, and July and August combined were revised down by 60,000. If October lands around 60,000, employment has marginally improved, but the absolute level is still far from strong. The problem is that weak employment is no longer the core variable in the Fed's current pricing. On October 28, the FOMC maintained rates at 3.75%–4.00% with a 10 to 2 vote; the two dissenting votes came from Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Mester, who advocated a 25 basis point hike rather than a cut. Dallas Fed President Logan clearly stated after the meeting that at least two more 25bp hikes are needed before pausing to assess; St. Louis Fed President Bullard said inflation is still "too high" and action should be taken "as soon as possible." CME FedWatch data is even more direct: the probability of a 25bp hike in December is between 72% and 74.9%, and the previously speculated "year-end rate cut" expectation has been disproven. The pricing paradigm is shifting—previously trading on "recession—rapid rate cuts," now trading on "soft inflation + resilient employment, high rates maintained long-term, with another hike if necessary."Whenever there's a major event, I have to check who's rising. This time the answer is a bit surprising: the most stable gains aren't from traditional safe havens, but from assets where you hold the keys yourself.
$XAUT is rising along with gold prices, with support around 3,900+ being bought back. Last Friday, gold hit a new low in over a year, but Monday saw a sharp turnaround. Tokens backed by physical assets actually have a premium amid trust crises.
$ZEC is leading the mainstream rally, with 1,280 just ahead. Distrust in custodians is still brewing, and the self-custody narrative has directly extended its life. I'm holding my position and won't reduce it unless it breaks below 1,200.
$BTC's Sunday lower wick was pulled quickly, with buy orders below 77,000 firmly absorbed. It closed up three days in a row but hasn't touched 80,000. This is a correction, not a reversal; before breaking 80,000, I'll only do base position rolling.
This black swan event taught the market one thing: only assets where you hold the keys yourself deserve to be called safe havens. $QQQ Today's Market! Oil prices fall, Nasdaq declines
The drop in oil prices reflects the fading geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East, while the Nasdaq decline is mainly due to sell-off pressure on AI tech stocks themselves. These are not driven by the same factors.
However, the Nasdaq is falling instead
I believe there are three main factors.
1. Concerns over AI capital expenditure returns
The market is beginning to question:
Tech giants like Microsoft and Google are investing heavily in building AI data centers.
Infrastructure investments in GPUs, servers, optical modules, etc., continue to increase.
But when will these investments actually translate into profits?
Investors are starting to reassess the valuation of the AI industry chain.
2. Oracle's financing raises market concerns
Oracle announced plans to raise about $20 billion through stock and bond financing for AI infrastructure construction.
The market worries that tech giants are increasingly relying on financing for expansion, and future capital returns may not support current valuations.
Oracle's stock fell about 8% that day.
3. Sell-off in the AI semiconductor sector
After Marvell announced the acquisition of Lumentum, the stock prices of both companies dropped sharply.
This indicates that the market is now not only looking at AI demand growth but also focusing on acquisition costs, financing pressure, and profitability.Senate swing state "All No" 25.5%→37.5%, 24h volume $4.67M→$29.38M, still firmly Polymarket's non-sports #1 — Iowa alone 10.7%, Iowa+Kansas 5.5%. (All sports and esports excluded; relative baseline 11/02) Other top ten: 2026 midterm power balance ($8.82M) rises to second: Democratic sweep 70.5%→75.5% / Republican Senate & Democratic House 23.5%→18.5% / Republican sweep 5.5%. 2026 House ($3.5M) third: Democrats 94.5% / Republicans 5.5%. 2026 Senate who wins back to fourth ($3.38M): Democrats 76.5% / Republicans 24.5%. 2028 presidential election back to fifth ($2.61M): JD Vance 18.4% / Ocasio-Cortez 12.2% / Newsom 12.0%. Texas Senate rises to sixth ($2.04M): Talarico (D) 72.5% / Paxton (R) 27.5%. US-Iran ceasefire newly enters seventh ($1.9M): near-term continuation files generally single digits (11/5 8.0% / 11/4 7.0% / 11/6 6.5%). BTC November strike price enters non-sports eighth ($1.56M): ↑77,500 95.0% / ↓75,000 75.5% #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Profit not reflected, how is the success rate so high The most confusing thing is this: the US dollar liquidity indicator has risen about 14 this year, with a reading of 32.71 million. The liquidity is clearly coming back, but my $BTC is just lying flat.
From past experience, when liquidity loosens, coins take off. This time Hayes says that doesn't count; we have to wait until the Federal Reserve or the US banking system really expands the balance sheet. Sounds like "wait a bit longer," but while waiting, wallets are getting thinner first.
As for $ETH, don't even mention it, the drop is sharp and unmistakable. Money has all gone to short-term debt to earn interest; who still wants to play with us?On November 3rd, Arthur Hayes posted a chart: a dollar liquidity curve climbing upward since the beginning of the year, accompanied by a bearish caption on Bitcoin. The curve goes up, $BTC goes down — this divergence is the key point.
The reading is about 32.71 million, up roughly 14% year-to-date, sounding like "the liquidity is back." But he left a caveat: the curve's name and compilation method have not been confirmed from multiple sources. It can only be considered a trend indicator, not evidence.
His framework is not "buy when the index rises," but focuses on one chain: central bank balance sheets, dollar liquidity, and risk assets. Index gains are only a necessary condition; the real trigger is the Fed or the U.S. banking system expanding their balance sheets themselves, swapping risk-free assets for cash and reserves, forcing capital to seek higher beta. The 2020-2021 expansion roughly coincided with the rise of $BTC and $ETH.
But the trigger hasn't been pulled. As of November 2026, the Fed has not announced a new round of quantitative easing or systemic balance sheet expansion, and interest rates remain in a relatively high range. New dollars prefer to sit in Treasuries, repos, and money market funds — with certain yields, short durations, and liquidity.
Thus, Bitcoin's required rate of return is stuck high: without signals diluting risk-free returns, investors must compensate for the uncertainty of high beta with a higher risk premium. The index is rising, prices are consolidating, and the market is waiting for data or action?BTC Daily Analysis (November 3):
**Around $77,306, 24h -1.48%.**
Facts:
- Dropped about $1,100 from yesterday's $78,413, 24h range $76,664–$78,878, still within the $77k–$80k range, close to the lower boundary, $80k not reclaimed.
- Low point around $76,664, close to the 200-day moving average at about $76.4k, not effectively broken down yet.
- ETF: Net outflow of $643.3 million on October 30, wiping out 63.6% of this year's net inflow so far; weekly net outflow about $203 million. Monday (November 2) inflow/outflow data not yet released as of this morning.
- Binance: Top 10 assets' zero-knowledge proof of reserves completed on November 2, next phase of withdrawals scheduled for today, next snapshot on November 4.
Viewpoint (with uncertainty): Structure is weak but no breakdown; no break below $76.4k means the downside space is not opened. Today is the US midterm election, volatility may increase.
Suggestion: Stay out of positions; doing nothing is the best action. Do not bottom-fish or chase shorts; wait for reclaiming $80k or effective break below $76.4k before discussing direction. #Perspectives of Palantir's Financial Report: Can High Growth Sustain the High Valuation? Just took a quick look at the market, BTC touched the lower boundary again, and that made me a bit nervous. This dip— is it the final bottom test, or is the rhythm about to reset? - BTC hit a low of 77,273, down 0.89% in 24h, with a high of 78,867, currently hovering around 77,442. The key point is that after the new low, it hasn't reclaimed 77,601, indicating the downward probing isn't over yet. - The 4-hour long-short ratio is 2.40, higher than 2.29 four hours ago, meaning long positions are even more crowded. Open interest is 2.603 billion; in the past 4 hours, longs have liquidated 1.921 million U, while shorts only 346,000 U. This isn't a panic liquidation but more like longs being slowly drained. - ETH is at 2,269, almost flat in 24h, down 0.04%, ranging between 2,248 and 2,318. It neither broke down nor has the strength to rebound, showing a typical wait-and-see stance. - SOL's low was also broken; all three major coins are probing the lower boundary, indicating this isn't a single coin issue but an overall risk appetite downgrade. In my own position journal, the most common mistake at times like this is rushing to add when seeing "no more drop," only to add halfway down the slope. Now it looks more like cross-market linkage tightening; any stir in US Treasury yields and the dollar will continue to squeeze the high-leverage longs in crypto. The bullish path is: BTC reclaims 77,601 and holds, ETH defends 2,#闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13%
The leader has something to say
This script for SanDisk is too typical. Q1 revenue surged 378% year-over-year, Q2 guidance exceeded expectations, and they announced a 1-for-8 stock split. So what happened? On October 30th, the stock plunged 13.47% in a single day.
The reason is obvious. The stock has already risen about 460% this year, with valuation and expectations fully priced in. When you reveal all your trump cards (explosive earnings growth, strong guidance, stock split) at once, there’s no room left for higher-than-expected surprises, so the first reaction from investors is to take profits. Plus, last night the global market underwent indiscriminate deleveraging, and high-priced stocks were treated like ATMs.
Today SNDK rose slightly by 0.25%, xSNDK up 0.13%, just a weak recovery, don’t mistake it for a reversal. Bitcoin dropped below 77,000 last night and is still grinding below. Let’s see if it can reclaim 80,000. If it can’t hold, expect deeper pullbacks, with resistance between 84,000 and 85,000 above. Don’t chase the rally or panic sell; set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; make sure to set your stop losses. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $SOL Let me first do a straightforward calculation: the maximum annual issuance rate drops from 2.5% to 1.6%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, which is a relative reduction of 36%, but this does not mean the supply immediately decreases by 36%. NEAR's House of Stake has voted to approve this adjustment, planning to implement it in phases over 24 months. $NEAR holders need to clearly understand these two accounts.
I think this is useful for long-term supply accounting, but it cannot yet be considered a demand-side positive. With the issuance cap lowered, dilution pressure will ease; quarterly reports can verify actual issuance against the plan, making auditing easier. However, if reduced issuance affects validator incentives, then how to balance the security budget is the risk I am more concerned about. This is my speculation, not a result that has already occurred.
According to my usual approach, to be cautious: currently, it still needs to go through security committee review, approval, about a 90-day grace period, and validator upgrade adoption. I will first observe these steps. Will you play it safe and wait until validators adopt it before evaluating, or are you willing to take on the uncertainty of implementation early?Seeing this message, my first thought is: reducing token issuance can improve the odds, but whether it's worth it depends on how much premium the market has already paid for this expectation. I'm not very willing to treat slow variables as short-term catalysts.
NEAR's House of Stake has voted to approve a plan to reduce the maximum annual issuance rate from 2.5% to 1.6% over 24 months. However, there is still the Security Council's review and approval, about a 90-day grace period, and validators adopting the protocol upgrade—not an immediate reduction right after the vote.
My judgment is that this is a long-term positive, and the short-term impact is easily overestimated. A decrease in issuance can reduce dilution for holders but does not equal increased demand; phased implementation also gives the market time to digest the expectation. According to my speculation, if the execution is fulfilled and demand keeps pace, the risk-reward structure will be more solid; if the narrative of issuance reduction alone raises expectations, the odds may actually worsen. I will monitor quarterly reports to verify deviations between actual issuance and the plan.$BTC shows an abnormal signal:
Price continues to fall, but spot CVD and futures CVD are rising.
Active buying is entering the market, but sellers keep absorbing the buy orders, so the price cannot rebound for now.
This divergence may indicate a local bottom is forming, but the selling wall above remains heavy.
Having a signal does not mean you can blindly bottom-fish. 👀
$BTC I don't touch high leverage, and when I see this kind of news, I don't rush to get caught up in the market. After holding spot assets for a long time, what I really want to know is: among those lively on-chain concepts, is there now a place where they can truly be implemented?
This time, NYSE has chosen Broadridge to support on-chain shareholder voting. Token holders will be able to participate in voting through wallets, broker interfaces, or ProxyVote. However, the proposed trading venue is still awaiting regulatory approval, so the selection of service providers and official implementation need to be considered separately.
My judgment is that this signals long-term infrastructure development, not a short-term bullish factor to explain price movements. If tokenizing stocks only solves circulation but shareholder rights are not connected, the whole chain is incomplete. Including voting arrangements indicates that construction is beginning to address rights after holding, rather than just focusing on trading.
I also value retaining multiple participation entry points. If users don't have to completely change their habits just to vote, the adoption threshold might be lower—that's my speculation. But listing the entry points doesn't mean the actual experience has passed muster, and regulatory approval remains a hurdle.
As for me, I hold and watch slowly to see if these aspects can be realized. For long-term construction news, there's no need to rush with leverage; even if the direction is right, one might not withstand the volatility. For friends holding long-term, will you consider "whether shareholder rights can be implemented on-chain" as a hard indicator to observe stock tokenization?$DOGE DOGE's exchange rate is plummeting almost to the core like BTC's slow decline, hitting the lowest range in 300 weeks, yet people are still frantically selling off.
But there's a very strange move in the market these days: every time the price dips below 0.076, it is instantly pulled back up, and the more it drops, the less volume there is.
Big holders have been quietly accumulating around 0.08 since last month, forcefully buying in 600 million coins. The old trapped holders refuse to sell at any cost, the market makers can't push the price down, and the shorts are paying interest daily to hold on. The spring is compressed to the limit; let's see how many more days the bears can stubbornly hold on.
#DOGE
$DOGE
👇U.S. midterm election voting day has arrived: Should BTC first look at the results or the expectation gap?
On the U.S. midterm election voting day, the hardest thing for the market to trade is probably not who wins, but how much the results differ from the script everyone bet on in advance.
Before voting, a pricing released by Kalshi showed the probability of the Democrats taking the House at 94% and the Senate at 74%. This was just the trading price at the time, not the votes, and certainly not the final result. But it tells us: the market already has a clear inclination about which party will control both chambers.
If the results are close to expectations, BTC may not necessarily rise all the way just because "uncertainty decreases"; if key seat results deviate from expectations, the market might readjust its judgment on regulation and fiscal policy. But whether it goes up or down cannot be predetermined; it still depends on the reactions of the U.S. stock market, the dollar, and BTC itself.
On the chart, BTC rebounded from around 76,660 but has not yet reclaimed the 77,600 area. My judgment is: treat the pre-election rebound as a repair first, don’t rush to bet on a trend reversal. Only if the hourly close stands above 77,600 and holds on a pullback will the repair have room to continue; if it falls below 76,660, this rebound needs to be reassessed and stop chasing longs for now.
Conversely, if BTC continues to hold above 77,600 without waiting for a pullback, it indicates buying pressure might be stronger than expected, and I would abandon the view that the rebound is weak.
$BTC $ETH #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Seeing this, my first reaction is: Does a decrease in stablecoins necessarily mean that everyone has stopped playing? 🤔 CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 pointed out that the total market cap of stablecoins has been declining for more than a month, dropping from $270.3 billion on October 1 to $263.4 billion, with an outflow of $6.9 billion in the past month.
Having been in the circle for only a year, my understanding is that this news serves more as a reminder about the capital absorption capacity than a prediction of price movements. I'm not sure if that's correct. A decrease in stablecoin supply means the reserve of funds readily available for trading is thinning; however, changes in total market cap alone cannot directly tell me how much capital was originally prepared to buy Bitcoin. So, I don't quite agree with treating stablecoin inflows as a necessary condition for a rebound.
I haven't figured out yet how to distinguish between redeeming and leaving the crypto market versus just changing the way funds are parked. I'd like to ask the seniors: besides total market cap, which on-chain data would you look at to judge where this money is going?Palantir's earnings report exceeded expectations, with adjusted earnings per share at 0.44, while Wall Street estimated 0.41. My forward-looking estimate was between 0.43 and 0.46, so this time I hit the mark. Revenue was 2.31 billion, up 96%, which is 6.9% above the upper limit of my own guidance. U.S. commercial revenue was 984 million, up 148%, even higher than Citibank's estimate of 140%. The Q4 revenue guidance is 2.65 billion, and the full-year growth rate was also raised to 91%.
However, the stock price did not rise accordingly. On Monday, it first fell 3.1% along with software stocks, closing at 178.34. At 4:05 PM Eastern Time, the after-hours price briefly touched 187.9, then quickly returned to around 180. The earnings call lasted about twenty minutes before the stock price fell below the close, hitting a low of 170.6. What I am worried about going forward is the newly signed contracts. The total contract value in Q3 was only 6% higher than last year, and U.S. commercial contracts were only up 11%, whereas last quarter these numbers were 49% and 153%. The whisper number of 0.49 was also not reached.
In my forward-looking view, if U.S. commercial growth exceeds 140% and the full-year guidance is raised by more than 10 points, I tend to be bullish. U.S. commercial growth did exceed that, but the full-year guidance was raised from 82% to 91%, an increase of about 9 points, just short.
Alright, these are all my personal opinions and not investment advice. New Jersey lifted the three-year staking ban, but Coinbase's stock price fell back to near a two-year low.📉
On October 30, the state securities bureau revoked the 2023 ban and the $5 million fine.
However, the help page still lists New Jersey as unable to add new staking, the revocation is "without prejudice," so further action is possible.
Morgan Stanley on the same day cut the target price from $258 to $120, citing weakening trading.
I think the lifting of the ban is a slow variable and can't save the current wave of decline.
$COIN Apple released its earnings report again exceeding expectations, with earnings per share at 2.10, while Wall Street estimated 1.99. My forward estimate was between 2.00 and 2.05, so I underestimated this time. Revenue was 114.5 billion, up 12%. iPhone revenue was 57.58 billion, up 17%, higher than Wall Street's estimate of around 56.5 billion. Mac sales rose 24%, Greater China region reached 17.54 billion, up 21%. Five cents of the earnings per share came from tariff refunds.
But the stock price didn't respond positively. On Monday, it first dropped 1.8%, closing at 338.32. After the numbers came out, it initially fell to 332 in after-hours trading, then surged to 341.9 during the conference call. The CFO gave a revenue guidance for the December quarter of 7% to 10% growth, which is actually higher than Wall Street's estimate of 6.7%. However, he then said that rising memory prices and development costs for Siri AI would pressure gross margins. The stock price quickly dropped from around 337 to 326, hitting a low of 323.
In my forward-looking comments, I said that if the December revenue guidance was above 7% and gross margin didn't decline much, I would be wrong. Half of the revenue expectation was met, but not the gross margin part. By 7 a.m. Beijing time, which is 6 p.m. Eastern Time, the stock price in after-hours was 326.8, down 3.4% from Monday's close. On OKX, the AAPL perpetual contract was at 327.9.
Alright, these are all my personal views, not investment advice. Bitcoin is currently under dual pressure from "insufficient macro liquidity expectations to offset micro capital outflows."
Before the Federal Reserve truly crosses the balance sheet expansion threshold (which requires zero interest rates or a deep crisis as a premise), marginal fiscal easing alone is unlikely to serve as a trend catalyst for Bitcoin.
Key indicators to watch include: the pace of TGA balance releases, banks' reserve capacity to absorb fiscal bond issuance, and whether ETF fund flows show a sustained shift. @OKX中文 @OKX星球 $BTC $ZEC $ZEC $BTC dropped continuously during the US stock market session last night, hitting 76,850 at 1 AM Beijing time on the hourly candle, and then touched 76,663 at 8 AM this morning, marking the low point in the past 24 hours. It has now rebounded to around 77,240. Binance spot 24h is down -1.5%.
According to Liqwall data as of 9 AM Beijing time, BTC liquidations in the past 24 hours totaled $84.7 million, with long positions accounting for $64.1 million or 76%. The most concentrated liquidations occurred between 1 AM and 2 AM, totaling $30.9 million.
$ETH also fell back to 2,260, down 1.3% in 24h. MarginPad reports total liquidations across the network in 24 hours at $295 million, with longs accounting for $233 million.
Interestingly, despite the significant drop, Binance BTC contract open interest increased from $7.42 billion to $7.63 billion in 24 hours, with the long-to-short account ratio still at 2.62. The funding rates for both coins are +0.01%.
My view is that the bulls were swept out once but are still adding positions to buy the dip. The leverage hasn't been fully cleaned out. If 77,600 cannot be reclaimed, it is highly likely that the 76,000 area will be tested again.The U.S. midterm elections are on November 3rd. Historically, stocks generally perform poorly before midterm elections. Since 1950, the U.S. stock market has risen in the year following midterm elections. Currently, QQQ short positions are close to $80 billion, and the market is mostly cautious! A market reversal is very likely on November 4th or 5th! The more short positions there are, the greater the subsequent rise in the U.S. stock market will be! My personal view is that the market will stabilize on November 4th and surge on the 5th and 6th!To be honest, I used to easily interpret a decrease in company cash as a negative signal and rushed to set the market direction. Only after stumbling over this kind of judgment pitfall did I understand that without considering the purpose of the funds, the more eye-catching the headline, the more likely it is to mislead me.
As of the week ending November 1, deployable USD cash in the Strategy dropped from $242 million to $133 million, a 45.3% decrease, with preferred stock buybacks exceeding Bitcoin ($BTC) purchase volume. There is also an independent reserve of $4.79 billion intended to pay preferred stock dividends and debt interest.
I see this as a change in capital allocation, not directly equivalent to a lack of funds: buybacks occupy capital but do not mean all cash is used to buy coins; the independent reserve has other uses and cannot be counted as ammo ready to buy coins at any time. This reminds me of the atmosphere when news breaks and everyone rushes to bet on direction—ordinary people are most prone to rigidly translate company treasury changes into short-term price moves.
Now I follow two rules: first, clarify the capital scope; second, do not leverage based on a single piece of news. Staying alive is more important than rushing to answer.Price hasn't changed, but the position is gone
$SOXL opening price 81.6, $SKHY opening price 156.9.
Both prices are still at the original level, but the position is gone first.
How is this number calculated: 26 million wasn't lost all at once.
It was seven entries and exits combined, losing a little each time.
The price returned to the starting point, but the principal didn't come back.
Here's the problem: going back and forth in the same direction.
Chasing when it rises, cutting losses when it falls, then chasing again when it rises.
Each round pays a fee and slippage.
After seven rounds, the price is still the same price.
What's missing in the account is 26 million.
He will enter again in the next round, and the price will most likely still be this price.
#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化
#$SOXL $SKHY 如果特朗普阵营在中期选举中失利，币圈和未来经济会发生什么变化？ 先明确一个关键背景：2026年美国举行的是中期选举，核心是国会席位的重新分配，并不是特朗普再次竞选总统。因此，我们真正需要关注的是共和党能否继续掌控国会，尤其是如果失去众议院，甚至参众两院都失去多数席位，未来美国政策会发生哪些变化。 先说核心结论：对加密市场而言，最直接的影响是政策预期、监管环境以及相关立法进程。至于币价是否会大幅下跌，美国经济是否会受到冲击，还需要结合选举结果与市场预期之间的差异，以及后续资金流向和政策变化综合判断。 仅凭共和党失去国会多数这一结果，就断言币圈必然暴跌、美国经济必然走弱，显然过于片面。 一、共和党失利，对加密市场有什么影响？ 首先受到影响的，很可能是市场此前建立起来的政策预期。 如果选举前有大量资金押注共和党继续掌控国会，并期待美国加密货币相关政策进一步放宽、立法加速推进，那么一旦选举结果明显低于预期，部分资金就可能重新评估持仓。 此前建立在政策利好预期上的估值溢价，也可能随之收缩。 这种情况下，短期出现获利了结和资金流出并不意外，尤其是那些高度依赖政治支持、监管放松预期以及市场情绪推动的Most people might take this kind of news as positive, but I’m used to hitting the brakes first. On the other hand, returning to normal and becoming stronger are two different things.
Liquid Network stated on X that Bitcoin reserves have been fully restored, and all LBTC has regained 1:1 BTC backing; weeks ago, BTC and LBTC redemption had already resumed. I prefer to see this as credit repair rather than a growth signal.
There are two reasons: 1:1 reserves answer whether there is sufficient backing, but it doesn’t equal the redemption experience—users still need to transfer assets through participating redemption service providers. Another is that users can run nodes to verify the federation reserve proof and also view the public dashboard; if they only read announcements without verification, then these transparency tools are not truly utilized. This is the other side I’m more concerned about.
Do you think restoring 1:1 backing is enough to rebuild trust, or should the redemption experience and ongoing verification also be considered? I welcome those with opposing views to debate.I see a reduction in issuance and usually calculate two things first: how much dilution is reduced and how much incentive must be sacrificed. Tightening supply can improve odds, but it doesn't automatically increase the probability of a price rise.
NEAR governance has approved a plan to lower the issuance cap to 1.6%, with the reduction scheduled over 24 months, which will reduce staking rewards. However, it still requires Security Council approval and validators to adopt the corresponding protocol upgrade before it can officially take effect.
I view this as a conditional positive for $NEAR holders. Governance approval brings the implementation closer than the proposal stage, but it cannot yet be counted as effective. If demand remains stable, reducing dilution helps improve holding expectations; if the reward decrease weakens validators' willingness to participate, then the security cost must be reassessed. For stakers, it's not just about the reduction in issuance but also the net effect after reward shrinkage.
I prefer to wait until both execution and incentives are clear. Facing this issuance reduction, do you value the odds after implementation more, or the odds priced in advance?Brothers, SNDK has dropped to 1096, and even a blockbuster earnings report can't stop the AI theme from fading
$SNDK $1,096
SNDK closed Monday with a sharp drop of 6.59% to 1075.08, with an intraday low of 1067.40; 1096 is basically the level after the post-market rebound. From the June peak of 2354, the pullback has exceeded 54%.
The core of the sell-off is no longer the earnings report. SNDK has fallen more than 35% cumulatively in October, making it the second worst-performing stock in the tech sector. The market is re-pricing whether AI capital expenditure can maintain this pace; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is overall cutting valuations, and SNDK, as a pure NAND play, has fallen the hardest.
The earnings numbers are solid. Q1 revenue was 11.03 billion, a year-over-year surge of 378%, with adjusted EPS of 49.51, both beating expectations. Data center revenue was 4.8 billion, up 61% quarter-over-quarter. The problem lies in growth: this quarter's revenue increased only 23% quarter-over-quarter, compared to 51% last quarter, and the contribution from price increases dropped from two-thirds to about 40%.
Analyst price targets are still sky-high. Among 25 covering analysts, most have buy ratings, with an average target price of $2029, implying about 89% upside. Morgan Stanley maintains a $1750 target, believing cloud demand can offset the decline in the consumer segment.
Technically, 1067 is Monday's intraday low and a key short-term level to watch. Before the November 20 stock split takes effect, the market is still debating whether the 85% gross margin is a ceiling.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The question I struggled with for half a year was answered by the King of Bhutan with a single decree: Is Bitcoin considered money or not? They didn't just issue a statement; they specifically established a new central bank, legally allowing it to hold Bitcoin, and even incorporated it into the national monetary system and reserve assets. In other words, on this country's ledger, BTC is no longer a speculative asset but a reserve item.
What’s most worth pondering about this matter is not the purchase volume, but the sequence. Previously, sovereign states encountering Bitcoin mostly first tacitly permitted it, then piloted it, and only finally discussed compliance. Bhutan directly transformed the most conservative institution—the central bank—into a container capable of holding Bitcoin. The container was built first; whether to fill it and how much to fill it with is the next step.
This is completely different from an ETF. An ETF is a passive channel; money flowing in and out is recorded on the market, visible the next day after selling. Central bank holdings are asset-side allocations, rarely moved for years, and won’t be cut just because of price drops. The psychology of holders is entirely different: one looks at performance rankings, the other at national credit.
For $BTC, this is a narrative-level plus. It won’t push the price up in the short term, but it clears the path for "states can legally hold it." Once this path is cleared, a second country will follow suit. Assets like $ETH still have to wait in line for regulatory classification for now.#AppleQ4iPhone18Outlook
Apple Q4 beat is done - 7.55M vol says YES won. But stock flat +0.06%. Why?
Q4 had first iPhone 18 Pro sales, yet community says component orders cut 15%. Beat last quarter, weak next quarter.
Real focus is outlook, not beat. New CEO rumor adds fear. iPhone 18 was AI iPhone - if demand soft, Apple needs new story.
Lesson: Beat doesn't matter if future is weak.
What did you think guys!!Did SanDisk break a cardinal rule?
It dropped so hard!
The earnings report was explosive, profits surged, yet the stock price plummeted like a kite with a broken string, falling from 1387 all the way down to 1096, cutting a third off in just half a month.
Many people were completely confused—how could the stock crash so much with such strong performance?
Actually, the real blow is hidden in its Japanese joint venture brother, Kioxia.
Kioxia's latest guidance revealed that after a previous surge, NAND flash memory prices might "stay flat" next quarter.
The logic of trading storage stocks has never been about how high the current price is, but about the speed of price increases.
Once growth peaks, even if profits continue, investors will not hesitate to flip the table.
Adding to this macro blow, although the Federal Reserve didn’t raise rates in October, the probability of a rate hike in December has soared above 70%, basically shattering any expectations of a rate cut.
High interest rates act like a pump, squeezing the breath out of these highly valued AI concept stocks.
Goldman Sachs data is even harsher—hedge funds have been frantically selling AI stocks for five consecutive days, wiping out all this year’s profits.
The combination of a tough macro environment and weak fundamentals has created a deep pit.
I entered a long position at 1176.4, now floating at nearly a 70% loss, but honestly, aside from a quick heartbeat when I first checked, I’m not panicking at all.
This drop is a double whammy of sentiment and valuation; a good company isn’t necessarily a good stock immediately.
But in this market, as long as your trump card is still in hand and you haven’t been forcibly kicked off the table, just wait for the panic selling to wash out.
Macro conditions always turn eventually, and the space lost to the drop will be returned sooner or later.
$BTC
$ETH
$SNDK
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The U.S. midterm elections are voting today, and the results will be out tomorrow morning Beijing time. The prediction markets have almost finished voting on behalf of the voters: On Kalshi, the probability of the Democrats taking the Senate rose to 74% on Monday, the highest since the market opened; both platforms for the House of Representatives are between 92% and 94%, and the probability of winning both chambers is also 74%. In polls by The New York Times and Siena, the Democrats lead in seven swing states, including Kansas, which hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and Kalshi gives it 63%.
Last Thursday, Morgan Stanley calculated that during Republican presidential terms, when Congress is divided after midterms, the S&P 500 averages a 23% increase over the following year, while the Democrats winning both chambers only yields 16% for the S&P 500. $QQQ
The variable is the power in Congress. If either chamber changes hands, the Democrats gain subpoena power and are already pursuing donations from the White House banquet hall, with names including Cisco, Salesforce, Kraken, Apple, and Nvidia, each donating $25 million. The purse strings also fall under Congress's control; the "Build Back Better" Act plans to cut $911 billion in Medicaid by 2034, and Molina gets 75% of its premium income from this.
Winning both chambers is already priced in; the surprise would be the Republicans holding the Senate. That roughly 22% probability of divided government, if realized, according to Morgan Stanley's old data, is not bad for the market. If the Democrats win both chambers, Medicaid stocks and companies close to Trump will be hit first. Coinbase was just downgraded by Morgan Stanley to a $120 target price. With the new Congress in place, crypto regulations will likely be renegotiated, so even after voting, there is no relief. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ TRUMP dropped over 10%, but the position in the just-ended hour rebounded. OKX spot price at 09:10 is about $1.587, down about 10.03% in 24 hours. From 08:00 to 09:00, the price fell from $1.602 to $1.588, while the perpetual position value rose from about $15.98 million to $16.15 million.
I am more focused on the positions increasing during the decline. However, the rise in positions does not reveal the long or short direction. The spot trading volume in that hour was about $246,000, only 0.61 times the average of the previous 12 full hours, so this single hour alone cannot indicate increased selling pressure.
If the price continues to fall, positions keep increasing, and spot trading volume also significantly expands, I will reassess whether the decline is accelerating. If positions fall back, this rebound will just be a brief fluctuation.
$TRUMP Apple beat, but fell ~3% after hours. Not buying the dip yet.
Q4 revenue $114.5B, +12%.
EPS $2.10 vs $1.99 expected.
iPhone $57.6B, +17%.
Only 8 days of iPhone 18 Pro in there.
But Dec-quarter margin guide is 45-46%.
It was 47.9%. Memory costs bite.
I think the beat was priced in.
Margin is the new story.
Just watching.
Holds $328? Dip gets bought.
Back above $338? Fear was overdone.
Margin scare, or holiday iPhone rally?
$AAPL $MU
#USStocks #Earnings#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？
Brothers, Dallas Fed President Logan dropped a harsh statement last night: "The Fed still needs to raise rates at least twice, totaling 50 basis points." She added sharply that don't expect skipping a meeting to change the endgame; the current policy rate is far from truly restrictive.
She is not fighting alone. The October FOMC vote was 10 to 2, with two officials demanding an immediate rate hike on the spot. Barkin and Mouselim also called for "early and gradual" tightening. CME pricing for a December rate hike has already surged above 70%.
What does this mean? The market game has changed. Now the worry is not "whether to hike in December," but "it won't be over after the hike." The risk-free rate is being pushed higher continuously, putting pressure on overvalued tech stocks and crypto assets alike. $BTC $ETH $SOL ETH and SOL Diverge: One Continues Weakness, the Other Clears Major Overhead Selling Pressure
Inside the market, capital battles are unfolding with completely different scripts. Ethereum has yet to escape its weak quagmire, while Solana has completed a long-suppressed bearish clearing event.
The weak tone of $ETH remains clear. Until it successfully holds above $2300, we have no sufficient reason to conclude the downtrend has ended. The on-chain NUPL indicator is at 0.0073, nearly touching the market breakeven line. Early ICO holders continue to sell and exit, continuously applying selling pressure. Interestingly, whale funds are quietly positioning around the $2200 range, with daily cumulative Ethereum purchases exceeding $100 million. Compared to chasing a brief spike rebound, layering positions at key support levels offers a much more comfortable risk-reward ratio.
$SOL has a bullish factor easily overlooked by retail investors: Nasdaq-listed company SkyAI has liquidated all its SOL holdings, realizing about $223.8 million. The large corporate selling pressure long hanging over SOL has thus been lifted. However, the price is still consolidating near $94. The $92.34 level is the core support baseline for this short-term rebound; if this point breaks, downside risk will increase again.
NEAR, AAVE, and UNI Each Hide Risk Signals
NEAR is currently priced around $3.87, having entered oversold territory on the daily chart, but the overall structure has not issued a clear bottoming signal. This looks more like a brief pause in a downtrend rather than a trend reversal. Short-term support is at $3.79, with resistance at $4.35. A noteworthy on-chain move: a whale closed NEAR long positions, realizing $4.43 million in profits, then positioned short on AAVE and BNB. Smart money has already made its judgment.
The current market state is a choppy bottoming process, not a strong upward push. Although Bitcoin shows initial signs of bottoming, many altcoins are still experiencing capital outflows. Blindly chasing short-term rebounds at this stage risks getting stuck halfway up. A safer approach is to follow whale behavior and wait for prices to reach key support zones before gradually positioning. Next, closely watch nonfarm payroll data and U.S. stock market sentiment; the market’s true reversal signal has yet to arrive.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 $BTC #AMD Earnings Preview: HeliosAI System Commercialization Progress
Hidden Highlights in AMD's Earnings: AI Computing Power Business is Growing Bigger, Can Helios Bring New Profit Surprises?
AMD's data center revenue for Q2 2026 reached $6.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 107%. The company previously forecasted Q3 revenue at about $13 billion, with a variance of $300 million, and a non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 56%.
This means the market already has high expectations for this earnings report.
The significance of Helios lies in AMD's attempt to enhance the overall value of its AI business.
But there is a key issue here: scale growth does not equal synchronized profit growth.
AI servers require a large number of advanced chips, memory, network equipment, and cooling systems. After production scales up, supply chain costs, product mix, and delivery efficiency will all impact the final profit.
Therefore, I believe this earnings report should not only be judged by whether revenue exceeds expectations but also by gross margin, data center business performance, and management's outlook for the next quarter.
A positive signal from AMD is that AI infrastructure is gradually moving toward actual deployment, and industry demand continues to expand.
As long as the commercialization process can continue to advance, profit growth has the opportunity to follow revenue growth.
What do investors fear most? It's not that a company temporarily runs slow, but that the market has already priced in the next ten years' achievements into today's stock price. Stay optimistic, but also leave some room for valuation to cool down. $AMD