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As of the morning of November 4 Beijing time, the vote counting for the 2026 U.S. midterm elections is still ongoing
Senate: 35 seats are up for election. Currently, the Democratic camp temporarily leads the Republicans 43:32, with about 25 seats still undecided.
In key battles, North Carolina successfully flipped blue, with the Democrats taking one seat from the Republicans;
Georgia was successfully defended by the Democrats.
The current Senate composition is Republicans 53 seats to Democrats 47 seats. The Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to regain control. The outcome will depend on the final results in seven states including Ohio, Michigan, and Texas.
House of Representatives: All 435 seats are up for election. Democrats currently lead 44:21, but most districts are still counting votes.
Before the election, Republicans held a slim advantage of 218:214.
With large mail-in ballot states like California and Arizona gradually reporting, Democrats are expected to further expand their lead.
Polymarket forecasts show a 96% probability that Democrats will retake the House.
Because some states use mail-in ballots and may trigger recounts, the final control of both chambers of Congress still requires patience.
The market has begun pricing in the possibility of a Democratic sweep, with the Senate results expected to be the largest source of surprise.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ November 2 $ETH Market Update
This rebound has already started, next key focus is the 2350 breakout.
On Saturday, I said if ETH holds 2260, there’s a chance to reach 2300, and the market has now confirmed this judgment.
On the 4-hour chart, ETH dropped to around 2171 before stopping the decline and pulling up. It is now above 2300, with short-term momentum better than the past few days.
However, the 2350–2370 range is an old resistance zone; previous rebounds have stalled here multiple Morgan Stanley joins DTCC tokenization service, becoming one of the first banks to adopt this service.
According to BlockBeats, Morgan Stanley will integrate assets such as collateral in token form into DTCC's settlement and custody system. DTCC controls the lifeline of U.S. securities settlement, and leading investment banks truly integrating tokenized collateral into its services means opening the door for on-chain assets in the core clearing segment of traditional finance. This is seen as a positive signal for the RWA and tokenization sectors, with institutional funds moving on-chain shifting from discussion to implementation.
What this elevates is the narrative momentum, not the immediate pricing of individual tokens. Tokenized asset concepts like ONDO may first attract sentiment attention, but what truly determines the market is whether verifiable asset scale emerges subsequently, along with follow-up from more banks and brokerages.
Scenario one: If DTCC services expand from pilot to regular settlement, narratives around infrastructure such as custody, settlement, and tokenized government bonds will simultaneously heat up. Scenario two: If it remains limited to the initial adopters without subsequent asset scale disclosure, sentiment may cool down with the news.
Are you more focused on verifiable asset scale or the list of more banks following up? About a 3.93% reverse fluctuation. Looking at the price alone, I might think "it hasn't dropped that much"; but when leverage is involved, it's a completely different magnitude. This $HYPE long position used 10x leverage and has now been fully closed, confirming a loss of about $30,500.
Price fluctuation VS principal pressure—this is the comparison I care most about in this trade. Roughly calculating with 10x leverage, excluding fees and margin adjustments, a price drop of about 3.93% corresponds to a loss of about 39.3% of the initial margin. So I don't agree with the idea that "small fluctuations can be easily endured"; leverage amplifies the cost of waiting.
Uncomfortable on paper VS exiting to realize losses—the latter at least ends the ongoing risk of this position. Of course, the material doesn't state the reason for exiting, and I won't automatically praise closing at a loss as discipline. A reminder to myself: first calculate how much reverse fluctuation you can bear, then talk about how long you can wait. $BTC IS BLEEDING ON THE DAILY, BUT THE 90D STILL SHOWS +18.43%.
Price sits at 76,186.5, down 1.63% today and 6.34% this week. From the 87,238.3 peak, sellers keep control. I'm staying patient, not catching knives.
Are you trading this dip or waiting for structure to change?
#BTCSpotETFOutflows The story of Solana has been pushing transaction records higher for four consecutive months. According to Blockworks Research data, successful transactions in October reached 3.38 billion, an 81% year-over-year increase, and this statistic excludes validator votes and failed transactions.
My first reaction upon reading this is that it's lively, but it's not yet time to write the ending for the price. My judgment is: this is a positive signal for on-chain activity, but taking it directly as bullish for the coin price is premature.
The reason is that by excluding votes and failed transactions, this number better reflects actual completed on-chain operations; four consecutive months of new highs also have more observational value than a sudden spike in a single month. However, the number of transactions is not the number of users, nor does it indicate how much users are willing to pay. The same batch of addresses repeatedly operating could also contribute many transactions.
I think the moral of this story is: records can prove that this page is lively, but they cannot guarantee the next page. Here is my speculation: if growth is accompanied by user retention and application demand, then this record will carry more weight. What do you all think? Will Solana turn its transaction records into sustained user growth, or will it end up with high transaction counts but lagging user growth?Continuing from the previous content
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？
3. Long term: Historical patterns can be referenced but should not be copied blindly
In past rounds of the US midterm elections, BTC has risen in the following year, but this does not mean the same trend will definitely repeat in 2026
Each cycle's position, market leverage, institutional funds, and macro liquidity differ. Especially now, if BTC's retracement from historical highs and market structure differ from previous rounds, conclusions cannot be drawn solely from historical statistics
I prefer to view the midterm elections as an emotional catalyst. What truly determines how far BTC can go are global liquidity, ETF fund flows, market risk appetite, and whether the price can form sustained buying support
Finally, my view:
Don't treat the election as a bottom-fishing signal, nor assume the bull market is over due to short-term pullbacks
If the election results align with market expectations but BTC fails to rise, I will be more cautious; if after the news, funds continue to flow in and the price can break key resistance levels, then the big move is truly coming Bitcoin has rebounded, but this time the biggest risk might not be missing out, but bottom-fishing too early!
Many people hesitate to buy when prices fall, then rush to chase when there’s a slight rebound. But in the current market, that’s exactly how you can get hit from both sides.
Regarding the overall market: $BTC is currently fluctuating around $77,000. Although there’s some recovery, funds haven’t truly returned yet. The US spot BTC ETFs have recently seen large net outflows, totaling over $1 billion in two days, and stablecoin supply is also contracting. This indicates that off-exchange capital remains cautious.
Regarding Ethereum: $ETH is hovering near $2,250, still showing weakness. Continuous ETF outflows suggest insufficient institutional buying, making it difficult for ETH to strengthen independently in the short term.
Regarding hotspots: The security incident Binance faced earlier still affects market confidence, and the US midterm elections add uncertainty to crypto regulatory policies. Today, the entire market saw about $123 million liquidated in 24 hours, with intense battles between bulls and bears.
Next, the key is to watch if BTC can firmly hold above $77,500 and whether the rebound is accompanied by increased trading volume.
Remember this: When the market is bad, everyone wants to bottom-fish; when the market truly reverses, often no one dares to buy.
Right now, the most important thing isn’t guessing the bottom, but waiting for the market to prove the direction through its movement. I don't play with high leverage, and on election night, I wouldn't use this kind of news as a reason to chase the market. Anyway, I'm holding without moving, more concerned whether this vote counting is just noise for the industry's long-term development or a signal that something lasting might remain.
This news says that in the preliminary vote count for the U.S. House of Representatives, several candidates supported by the crypto industry are temporarily leading, including Josh Gottheimer and Rob Menendez from New Jersey; it's not a complete sweep though, as with about 35% of votes counted, Houston Gaines is still slightly behind Pamela DeLancy. Temporary leads are still one step away from the final result.
My judgment is that short-term interpretations tend to be exaggerated, but in the long term, this is a signal worth tracking. The list includes both Democrats and Republicans, indicating that industry support is not limited to one side; if this support can translate into ongoing policy communication, then the industry might have a bit more room for dialogue when facing political changes. This is my speculation.
But industry support does not equal guaranteed promotion of friendly regulations after election, nor does it mean the rules have already been implemented. For long-term holders, what really matters are the subsequent bills and enforcement boundaries; the current vote counts cannot replace these.
Just watch slowly, don't treat the unsettled vote count as certainty, leverage will amplify the cost of judgment errors. For long-term holders, will you see the victory of these candidates as an important signal, or wait for specific bills to come out before judging?🔥Trump talks about rate cuts, ETH surged to 2308 then fell back to 2260. This wave of market action serves as a reminder: positive news and trend reversals are completely different things! Last night’s related statements stimulated market sentiment, causing ETH to quickly rally in a short time. It seemed the bulls finally got their chance, but subsequent buying momentum did not continue, and the price quickly returned to the original range.
📉 This indicates the market is still sensitive to rate cut expectations, but funds have not formed a unanimous bullish view based on a single speech. What truly affects the market are inflation, employment data, the Fed’s policy path, and whether the market has already priced in the good news in advance.
📊 For short-term observation, two levels: around 2260 is the current pullback observation zone, whether it can stabilize is very important; 2300–2308 is the resistance zone above, only if volume increases and it holds above can there be grounds for further strength. If the rebound lacks volume and the price continues to be pressured, beware of another pullback.
⚠️ Today, do not treat Trump’s statements as Fed policy decisions. News can ignite the market but can also create false breakouts. First watch if price and volume cooperate before deciding whether to participate. Do you think ETH can retake 2300 next? Why does North Korea, with unstable electricity, produce top-tier hackers?
North Korea's power supply is generally unreliable, so how do they have the world's most ruthless hacker forces?
The core is not the equipment, but the national system's talent pipeline. From elementary school, they select children with top math talents, train them in isolation, with high-intensity practical combat training, aiming at cyber confrontation.
The famous Lazarus Group and Bureau 121, under the Reconnaissance General Bureau, belong to the military cyber forces, not civilian black market hackers.
Due to limited domestic network environment, they choose to disguise and lurk abroad. Disguising as outsourced programmers, headhunter phishing, infiltrating Web3 teams and exchanges. The recent Binance hack is also a typical social engineering infiltration tactic.
Why focus specifically on cryptocurrency? Sanctions have locked down traditional banking channels, on-chain assets flow globally with many laundering paths. The cost of maintaining hackers is extremely low; one successful operation can yield billions of US dollars.
This income is a very critical source of foreign exchange for them. In their eyes, the crypto industry is a national-level ATM.
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 After consecutive liquidations of my positions, I finally got a good gain this time. The US midterm election results are out, with the Democrats taking an early lead. $SNDK SanDisk and other US stocks started a rollercoaster ride in pre-market trading!
Finally, my XP points are back in the green. I can only say this wave was really good; now waiting for a rise to short again!
The uncertainty brought by the US midterm elections is putting pressure on high-valuation tech stocks like SanDisk. Currently, I am bearish on SanDisk's short-term trend.
If this election leads to a change in the congressional power structure, new uncertainties may arise in AI data center construction, energy regulation, and fiscal policy. One of SanDisk's biggest growth drivers is the AI industry's demand for enterprise-grade NAND flash memory.
More importantly, SanDisk's previous gains have been remarkable, and the market's growth expectations for AI storage are already very high. Even if the earnings report is good, it doesn't mean the stock price has room to keep rising. Once market risk appetite declines, funds will easily choose to take profits.
I believe the election is just a catalyst for this round of decline; the real pressure comes from high valuations, profit-taking, and uncertainty about future price trends in the storage industry. No rush to bottom-fish in the short term; first, let's see if the US tech sector can stabilize.
#闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注 Capital is leaving before conviction returns. Across the three largest crypto assets, the dominant signal on 3-4 November is not price but positioning: leverage is still being unwound, and the money flow data shows no single leader emerging from the deleveraging. $BTC carries the heaviest burden. Spot net outflows over 24 hours reached $1.064 billion, while futures net outflows hit $3.098 billion — the clearest evidence that the leverage contraction has not finished. $ETH shows a local flicker oTo pour some cold water first, LIT's negative funding rate with a price increase doesn't make me rush to treat it as a "short squeeze signal." Hyperliquid perpetual public market data shows that LIT currently has the highest absolute funding rate among contracts, at -0.0064% per hour, approximately -56% annualized, with a 24-hour price increase of 5.18%. My bearish stance is on the interpretation of this arbitrage opportunity, not simply assuming the price will drop just because the rate is negative.
I have two reasons: First, a negative funding rate means shorts pay longs, but it doesn't directly prove shorts will immediately collapse; if there are hedged positions involved, the payment may not trigger a short squeeze liquidation, which is my speculation. Second, the annualized figure tends to steal the spotlight; it is just a conversion of the current rate, not a fixed return for the next year. The price has already risen, and if you only focus on "collecting funding fees" to enter, a single reverse price movement could wipe out the funding income.
Of course, bulls might also be right. If the negative funding rate continues, the price remains strong, and spot trading volume expands simultaneously, I would increase my confidence in the short squeeze logic; if the funding rate only briefly turns negative, I won't give it much weight. I prefer to break down the risks first to avoid mistaking crowded signals for cheap chips. Given this set of "negative funding rate plus price increase" data, are you bullish or bearish? Share your reasons, and which signal do you most want to wait for to verify?Bloomberg BTC Year-End Forecast Released: Democrats Sweeping Both Chambers May Struggle to Hold $76,000
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？
Bloomberg survey provides a clear year-end range for $BTC: $76,000–$90,000.
If Republicans hold both chambers, the price could reach $90,800; a split Congress might see fluctuations around $84,100; a Democratic sweep could push it down to $76,450.
Current price is around $76,000–$77,000, almost exactly at the median of the Democratic scenario, with the market predicting a high probability of a Democratic sweep of both chambers.
My judgment is:
The marginal impact of the election results on the year-end price has been partially priced in; the real determinant of the market going forward is not who wins Congress, but whether post-election capital flows can stabilize.
The benchmark at the end of September was still $83,600, now it has retraced nearly 8%,
with continuous net outflows from ETFs combined with lingering effects of hacks, the price itself has reached the lower edge of the survey range.
If the Democratic scenario materializes, the downside is limited (only 16% of the survey expects a drop below $60,000); if Republicans unexpectedly win, there is elasticity for a recovery toward $84,000–$90,000. However, even if the Senate majority changes hands, it is often narrow, and the progress of the CLARITY Act may still be hindered, so policy benefits will not be realized instantly.
Trading advice:
Light positions or strict stop-loss before election results are clear.
Support levels are at 76,000–76,600; if broken effectively, look for 75,000–73,700 (near the 200-day moving average).
Resistance on the rebound is first at 79,000–80,500; a stable break above this would open talks of a mid-term recovery.I saw the trending search, and my first reaction was to calculate the drawdown: if the principal drops, it requires a larger gain to recover. No matter how high the attention is, it can't be used to offset losses, and I am quite particular about this.
In the CoinGecko trending list, AudaCity ($DACITYCOIN) ranks first, with a market cap ranking of 992, down 19.4% in 24 hours; meanwhile, BTC and PENGU on the same list both dropped 0.3%. My judgment is that this list is more suitable as a risk screening entry point, not an opportunity ranking. The search might be driven by the decline attracting attention; although also on the list, price volatility varies greatly; market cap ranking cannot replace liquidity checks.
Playing it safe might miss opportunities, while chasing popularity means bearing the cost of wrong judgments. I will first look at trading depth and find the cause of volatility; if unclear, I will just observe and be more cautious. When facing such trending searches, would you play it safe and wait for clarity, or be willing to take risks and endure greater volatility?"🔥With just one sentence from Trump, ETH bulls started dreaming again, only to wake up and find the market didn't cooperate at all! Last night, news about a rate cut spread, instantly heating up market sentiment. ETH suddenly surged, reaching a high near 2308. Many thought it would finally break through this time, but after a night's sleep, the price fell back to around 2260. Bulls who chased in probably aren't laughing now.
📉 This is a typical news-driven market: the price first spikes on the news, but whether it can truly rise depends on whether follow-up capital is willing to take over. If there's only sentiment without sustained buying, the surge easily turns into a dumping ground for chasing funds.
📊 What needs to be observed now is whether the 2260 level can hold steady and whether it can reclaim 2300 afterward. Failure to hold means this rebound lacks conviction; if volume breaks through 2308, there’s a chance to further improve the short-term structure.
⚠️ Don’t rush to go long tonight just because Trump talks about a rate cut. A speech doesn’t mean the Fed has decided to cut rates, and expectations can quickly change with economic data. Do you think this is a prelude to a rebound or just another bull trap on a spike? #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $SNDK tried to break through four times but failed each time; this rebound is already over.
Yesterday, when Beichen shorted at 1108, many brothers asked, since it has risen to 1154, why not exit? Beichen didn't exit. Now at 1080.01, the answer is clear.
Why dare to hold? It's not because of bravery, but because this rebound was off from the start.
First, the volume is wrong. 7,923 lots look scary, but at the 1150 price level, that's only 8.9 million USD, while SanDisk trades over 20 million a day; this amount can't push the trend.
Second, the way it surged was wrong. 1117, 1154, 1149, 1137—four surges, each weaker than the last, with sellers every time it went up.
Third, most importantly, every time it surged, the US stock market didn't show a good face. Apple's earnings report crushed the market, tech stocks are cutting valuations, and SanDisk follows the broader market; if the market is weak, it can't bounce on its own.
So that 1154 yesterday was not an opportunity, but a trap. Those who chased in are now down 74 points.
What about now? Beichen is not chasing shorts. Only 11 points away from the previous low, chasing shorts now is like taking the last baton. Also, this drop was sharp; the last 4-hour candle dropped directly from 1137 to 1080, and such sharp drops are often followed by a rebound.
If you have a position, hold it; don't be greedy for the last bit. If you don't have a position, wait for the rebound; don't chase at 1080.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ HYPE's largest external entity, a16z-related entity, has recharged 32,862 tokens to exchanges again, transferring a total value of $15.02 million worth of $HYPE in the past five days 👀
Since 07.15, this entity has withdrawn a total of 3.75 million HYPE from major exchanges and market makers (excluding recharged amounts, only withdrawal data counted), with an average withdrawal price of $83.5
Therefore, if the recently recharged portion is sold, the expected profit is $1.08 million $JPYC
A yen-denominated stablecoin is now being used in a real-world tax-refund service for eligible visitors to Japan. This is the kind of practical use case worth following: a digital asset solving a specific payment problem. Wider adoption will depend on convenience, compliance and trust.
#JPYC #Avalanche #StablecoinsThe U.S. midterm elections are approaching, should BTC be bullish or bearish?
Many are watching the U.S. midterms, thinking that if the Democrats take Congress, Bitcoin will see a surge.
Elections can influence market sentiment, but that doesn't mean once the results are out, $BTC will definitely rise.
I'll discuss from three perspectives:
1. Short-term: Be cautious about positive news being priced in, don't rush to chase the rally.
If the Democrats ultimately take the House, or even make breakthroughs in the Senate, the market may not immediately rise.
Funds often speculate not on the result itself, but on the gap between the result and expectations. If the market has already bet on this outcome, when the news actually lands, those who positioned early might choose to take profits.
I'm more focused on whether BTC can increase volume and hold key levels after the election results are announced.
2. Medium-term: Don't equate an increase in pro-crypto lawmakers directly with favorable policies.
The U.S. crypto industry has been striving for clearer regulatory rules, but changes in congressional seats don't mean related bills will pass immediately.
Take the CLARITY Act as an example; it still involves committee reviews, bicameral coordination, and other legislative procedures. Even if Congress members are friendlier, there is still a long way from policy expectations to actual implementation.
Elections can change market expectations about regulation but cannot directly create buying pressure. What truly affects industry valuation is whether the bill makes substantive progress.
There are two more points not finished; see the next part.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ 🔍Down 19.4% in 24 hours, $DACITYCOIN tops the trending search list. I'm focusing on this contrast first: Are people looking for opportunities, or checking the reasons for the drop? The source is CoinGecko's trending search list, which confirms attention, not capital inflow.
An interesting detail here is that the search action itself has no direction. Holders checking news and onlookers watching the spectacle can both drive up the heat. I prefer to see this top ranking as a risk alert signal rather than a positive sign; the drop and search volume together can't directly prove causality.
Here's my speculation: If the searches mainly come from doubts after the drop, the heat may not convert into sustained buying. Let's not jump to conclusions yet. I'll keep monitoring the trading and price performance after the heat subsides, reminding myself not to mistake the number of onlookers for the number of buyers. SUI
Current pattern: about 0.88
Resistance levels
Short-term resistance: $0.90–0.92
Mid-term resistance: $0.95–1.00
Strong resistance: $1.10–1.20
Support levels
Current support: $0.86
Important support: $0.80
Long-term support: $0.75
#美伊谈判未突破，油价为何单日跌逾7%？ $SUI A rebound with volume does not mean the recovery is complete
$ZEC has moved from 1237.73 back to around 1262, raising the low by about 2.0%.
In the past two hours, it rose 1.1%, with trading volume 183.9% higher than the previous two hours.
How this number is calculated:
The trading volume nearly doubled, indicating there are orders supporting the rebound.
But the low only rose by 2.0%, so the price hasn't moved far.
In plain language:
Having trading activity doesn't mean the recovery is strong enough.
$HYPE daily RSI is about 58.1, momentum is still above 50, and the price has retreated to around 86.
A pullback is happening, momentum hasn't weakened, both things are true simultaneously.
Drawing conclusions just from a 1.9% drop in the last 24 hours is premature.
The quality of recovery and relative strength must be separated from volume.
Volume must return first before price can catch up.
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 $ZEC $HYPE Risk Warning: The following is a conditional strategy based on the public market conditions as of November 4 and does not constitute investment advice. The midterm election results are still unfolding, and the non-farm payrolls on Friday are imminent, creating a dense event window. Position management takes priority over directional judgment.
As of November 4, $BTC BTC has been fluctuating repeatedly between 77,000 and 78,000, briefly breaking above 78,000 in the early hours before retreating to around 77,000. ETH is reported around 2,265–2,276, having surged to 2,303 intraday before falling back under pressure, overall still in a weak recovery pattern. Market sentiment is in the fear zone, and directional choices require confirmation from incremental funds after event outcomes.
$BTC BTC Trading Strategy: Treat the 77,000–78,000 range as a box, do not bet before a breakout
Core Logic: BTC is currently in a rebound and repair phase after a decline. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward but the lower band is flattening, indicating short-term downward momentum is weakening, with funds supporting at low levels, but the overall bearish trend remains unchanged. The upper resistance at 78,000–78,100 combines the early morning high and the box midpoint pressure; a breakout targets 78,800–79,500. The lower support at 76,400–76,800 is a recent pullback zone; if broken, look to 76,000 and 75,600.
Strategy A: Wait and see (preferred)
• Before the midterm election results are finalized, the box midpoint (77,200–77,800) has an unfavorable risk-reward ratio; do not participate.
Strategy B: Light long position on pullback to 76,400–76,800 (aggressive short-term only)
• Entry: Enter lightly if volume increases and price stops falling or shows a long lower shadow in this area.
• Stop loss: Below 75,800.
• Target: Exit at 77,500–77,800.
Strategy C: Light short position at 78,000–78,200 (short-term only)
• Entry: Light short when a rebound to this area shows stagnation (upper shadow, volume contraction).
• Stop loss: Above 78,700.
• Target: Exit at 77,200–77,000.
Invalidation: If volume surges and price stabilizes above 79,500, the bearish logic is paused; reassess on the right side.
$ETH ETH Trading Strategy: 2,290–2,300 is a hard resistance; focus on shorting rebounds
Core Logic: ETH’s structure is weaker than BTC’s. After surging to 2,303 in the early hours, it quickly fell back, confirming 2,290–2,300 as a short-term strong resistance zone. Technically, RSI is about 36.4, indicating weakness; price is below SMA20 (2,353) and SMA50 (2,508), with moving averages in a bearish alignment. MACD histogram is converging but direction unchanged. Support below is at 2,258 as a short-term low reference; if broken, look to 2,210 (Bollinger lower band) and 2,174 (30-day low).
Strategy A: Short on rebound (main strategy)
• Entry: Light short when ETH rebounds to 2,290–2,310 and faces resistance.
• Stop loss: Above 2,330.
• Targets: First target 2,260–2,250, second target 2,210.
Strategy B: Short on breakdown (conditional trigger)
• Trigger: ETH breaks 2,250 with volume and fails to recover on pullback.
• Entry: Light short on pullback to 2,250–2,260 after breakdown.
• Stop loss: Above 2,300.
• Targets: 2,210, with an extreme target of 2,174.
Long conditions: Only if volume surges and price stabilizes above 2,330–2,350, and BTC simultaneously strengthens, are the basic conditions for right-side long positions met. The current rebound remains a window for reducing positions/shorting.
Position and Risk Management Principles
1. Total position controlled within 10%. With midterm election results unfolding and Friday’s non-farm payrolls imminent, directional bets before events are essentially gambling.
2. BTC 78,700 and ETH 2,330 are bearish stop-loss lines; exit and observe if prices rise above these levels, do not hold positions.
3. The optimal strategy is to "wait." Only if BTC breaks out above 78,000 with volume and stabilizes, or ETH surges back above 2,330 with volume, is there a right-side signal. Before that, do not chase positions in the box midpoint; cash positions themselves are a form of position.Circle released its Q3 earnings today, with revenue expected to rise but EPS forecasted to drop by one-third. The core reasons are twofold:
First, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts have caused the USDC reserve yield to fall from 4.1% to 3.5% and it's still declining; second, the USDC circulation has shrunk from 73.3 billion to about 70 billion, meaning both revenue engines are slowing down simultaneously. Moreover, the interest on USDC held on Coinbase goes 100% to Coinbase, with a 50/50 split outside, and the protocol just renewed the agreement unchanged until 2029. Nearly 60% of Circle's revenue is shared with channels.
Today's revenue beat expectations likely relies on a one-time $240 million income from the Arc token presale, which isn't a real strength. Buying a business that earns interest spread at a 50x forward PE, when rates are not only falling but circulation isn't recovering, cannot sustain the valuation. $ZEC outperformed $BTC by 4.22 percentage points in the last 24 hours.
My first reaction wasn’t excitement, but to confirm: is this a market rebound, or are a few contracts stealing the spotlight?
① As of now, among the top 5 by 24h trading volume, $ZEC rose +3.55%, closing at 1176; $BTC fell -0.67%. The trading volume threshold limits the observation scope, so don’t treat this leaderboard as a thermometer for the entire market.
② Leading gainers include $ETH -0.26%, $BTC -0.67%, $SOL -0.92%. $ZEC’s strength didn’t synchronize with these assets, appearing more like a local standout rather than a broad rally.
③ $HYPE -1.88%, differing from $ZEC by 5.43 percentage points. Such a large gap at both ends of the same observation window means focusing only on the top can overlook volatility at the other end.
My judgment: this is useful for identifying divergence but insufficient to confirm an overall rebound. The leaderboard provides trading volume but not changes in liquidity, so the quality of the rise is still unclear.
When looking at these gainers and losers lists, do you focus most on the percentage change, relative strength to BTC, or changes in trading volume? Let’s discuss in the comments #CryptoCommunity#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
The market is focused on USDC's circulating supply hitting new highs, but what I see is a different layer of counter-consensus logic.
Stablecoin growth ≠ Circle shareholders making money.
CRCL is essentially still an interest rate business — reserve interest accounts for over 90% of revenue. No matter how large USDC's scale is, as long as the Fed's policy suppresses short-term yields, the yield per unit of reserve will be eaten up. Last quarter was a typical example: circulation surged to 76 billion+, but revenue only increased by single digits, with a 66 basis point drop in interest rates directly offsetting the increment.
So the three numbers to really watch in this earnings report are not how much USDC was issued again.
1. Can RLDC retention rate hold above 40%?
2. Is there real growth in Arc/payment/RWA-related income?
3. What guidance does management provide on the rate cut cycle?
In the short term, CRCL looks more like a money market fund disguised as crypto; good earnings don’t equal narrative fulfillment.
In the long term, only if USDC evolves from a store-of-value coin to a settlement layer will Circle deserve a network stock valuation. Otherwise, the more stablecoins grow, the more the market gets conflicted — scale benefits are eroded by interest rates.
A contrarian view: everyone bets on stablecoin adoption, but few ask "Who profits from adoption?" Licensing and compliance are tickets to the game, not printing presses. The real inflection point is when BTC stagnates, altcoins quiet down, and USDC on-chain settlement volume keeps rising — that’s the fundamental for decoupling bull and bear markets.
Positioning-wise, don’t chase highs before the earnings report; wait for expectation gaps. Good news fully priced in is easy to pull back from; bad news sell-offs might actually be golden opportunities. Last night, Bitcoin showed a 4H low point formation signal around 7.7, accompanied by multi-coin and multi-timeframe resonance. There was a rebound overnight, but it continued to fall this morning with weak momentum and a weak trend. It is expected to maintain some consolidation above the support level. The movement to the right still lacks some space and time; the rebound needs to break above the upper blue descending line to have a chance to enter a rebound cycle. Currently, it is still in the left-side bottoming phase, so patience is required. The support at 7.5 below may still be tested. Ethereum is the same as yesterday, still waiting for the descending trendline to be broken. It has been tested multiple times, and the 12H low point is still holding support, with the lower support around 2170. The crypto market currently lacks hotspots and profit opportunities overall, somewhat mirroring the US stock market trend. The US stock QQQ continues to decline, now near 670, very close to the previous low of 660, so we continue to wait and watch. Although QQQ has a 12H low point, it clearly cannot support this downtrend for now. In commodities, gold XAU hit a new low before stopping the decline and rebounding, currently near 3950. It needs to return above 4K, then move right and break through the blue descending line to have a chance to enter a new upward cycle. Refer to the price action after the daily lows in July–August. #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ ADA
Current status: approximately $0.188–0.191
Resistance levels
Short-term resistance: $0.195–0.20
Mid-term resistance: $0.21–0.22
Strong resistance: $0.25+
Support levels
Current support: $0.185–0.188
Secondary support: 0.18 (support near \0.182 mentioned by analysis institutions)
Psychological bottom: $0.17
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 $ADA Good morning, crypto friends, this is Mouse's liquidation quick report
Below is the $BTC 24-hour total network liquidation data.
The total BTC liquidation amount in 24 hours is: 70.1322 million USD.
Among them
The 24-hour long position liquidation amount is: 48.5135 million USD.
The 24-hour short position liquidation amount is: 21.6187 million USD. BTC rebound hit resistance at 78,000, can it still hold 76,500 today?
Just finished breakfast and checked the market. BTC surged to $78,000 last night but was pushed back, with bulls and bears still tugging back and forth.
The long positions set around $76,700 yesterday hit the first target smoothly with a gain of 1,100 points. The remaining positions have their stop loss moved to breakeven, watching for the second target.
Yesterday, BTC repeatedly tested the $76,500–$76,800 range without a real close below it, indicating there is still buying support below.
However, this level has been tested multiple times, so whether it can hold today is uncertain.
Currently, $77,800 is a key short-term dividing line, located in the middle of the range and close to the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level. Only by firmly holding here can BTC have a chance to challenge $78,600 again.
If it faces resistance and falls back again, it may test the $76,500–$76,800 support zone.
Today, I’m slightly adjusting my approach and won’t place bottom-fishing orders in advance. I’ll wait for BTC to pull back and show a clear stop-fall signal, then reclaim the key level before considering light long positions on the right side. If it breaks below $76,500 effectively and fails to recover, I’ll continue to watch.
What do you think? Can BTC hold $76,500 today or will it continue to dip to $75,000? Let’s discuss in the comments! There's something quite counterintuitive: a company earns more than expected, so its stock price should rise, but at the same time it says "we might have to pay a bigger fine."
Block is doing exactly that. In Q3, gross profit was $3.2 billion, exceeding expectations, and the 2026 outlook was also raised; yet in the same financial report, it mentioned a potential settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice, with an even larger amount.
My first reaction was—does that $3.2 billion really count? It does, but it's the $3.2 billion "before deducting the fine."
For those holding $BTC, this is actually a pretty typical scenario: the core business is making money, but the bills are lined up behind.XRP
Current pattern: about $1.25–1.28
Resistance levels
Short-term resistance: $1.30–1.35
Mid-term resistance: $1.40–1.50
Strong resistance: $1.65+
Support levels
Current support: $1.20–1.23
Secondary support: $1.10–1.15
Psychological bottom: $1.00
#AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 $XRP #AMD data center revenue nearly doubled, both revenue and guidance exceeded expectations A blast on Qeshm Island, BTC first drops then rallies: This round of Middle East pulse, crypto is trading "inflation" not "safe haven"
US military conducts "limited strike" on Iran's Qeshm Island, Strait of Hormuz risk lights up red again
Brent crude nears 105, WTI stands above 96+, gold and silver spike then retreat
BTC once fell below 77,000 → pulled back near 77,400 at dawn, 24h volatility over 2%
Nearly 100,000 liquidations across the network, longs and shorts both shaken out
But this time, don't rely on the old saying "When the cannon fires, gold gains ten thousand taels."
Bitcoin is a "high volatility risk asset":
Conflict → oil price rises → inflation expectations swing → rate cut expectations delayed, US Treasury yields hold firm → risk assets first cut valuations → sentiment stabilizes then rebounds.
So what you see is:
Panic selling hits BTC/ETH first → funds realize "it's not a full-scale war" → limited recovery → but leverage is washed out. Watch three switches in 72 hours:
Whether US military confirms "no large-scale operations"
Whether Hormuz Strait actually affects tanker passage
Whether BTC can reclaim 78,000 and hold — if not, it's a downtrend continuation
Don't treat geopolitics as a one-sided positive, don't chase contracts on news-driven rallies
Limited conflict = high volatility shakeout, full escalation = liquidity safe-haven clearing
The real pricing is oil price → interest rates
Missiles fall in the Persian Gulf, liquidations happen on-chain.
This round is not a safe-haven bull market, it's a macro expectation repricing
#美伊谈判未突破，油价为何单日跌逾7%？ #تقرير Circle earnings are on the horizon, can stablecoin growth deliver returns? $RAVE Overall bearish trend, retail investors are all bullish though, be cautious when bottom-fishing, continue holding
OKX RAVE Long-Short Ratio (Core Structure)
Retail investors: ↑ 3.60 → Extremely bullish
Number of large holders: ↓ 1.74 → Bullish
Large holders' positions: ↓ 0.72 → Extremely bearish
Main force inclination: Extremely bearish
The structure shows a classic divergence of “extremely bullish in number of holders, extremely bearish in positions, and extremely bearish in main force.”
Retail sentiment is extremely bullish, the number of large holders is also bullish, but actual positions and main force are extremely bearish. This structure often leads to a "bull trap followed by a dump" or a high-level pullback.
Network-wide comparison
Binance account long-short ratio: 4.04 (extremely bullish)
Binance large holders number: 4.45 (extremely bullish)
Binance large holders' positions: 1.94 (bullish)
Upcoming unlocks:
There is a small-scale unlock soon (about 4.4M), the next larger batch is in December/January (around 21M level).
Overall unlock progress is about 23–27%, with continuous linear release afterward.
Project progress: Ecosystem-related, no obvious major negative or positive news.
$BTC $ETH #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ A payment company's earnings report is turning into a handbook for the crypto market.
Block's Q3 gross profit reached $3.2 billion, exceeding expectations, while also raising its 2026 performance outlook. For a company that relies on payments and consumer wallets, this scale of quarterly gross profit indicates expanding cash flow and user activity.
Why should people in crypto care? Block is one of the few publicly listed companies that has truly made $BTC a product entry point: selling hardware wallets, enabling self-custody, and allowing consumers to buy and sell Bitcoin directly within the app. The gross profit beating expectations, in a sense, signals that more people are willing to pay to hold and use cryptocurrencies. This kind of demand is more dispersed and sticky compared to ETFs, which are concentrated in institutional hands. The logic for $ETH and $SOL is different, but the temperature is from the same river.
There is a second easily overlooked point in the earnings report: the company mentioned a potential settlement proposal from the U.S. Department of Justice involving a larger amount. This money has not yet been realized. In other words, the better-than-expected gross profit and the raised guidance were given before deducting this.
So my judgment is: this earnings report is a mildly positive signal for crypto, representing fundamental confirmation rather than market fuel. It proves that the payment sector is still active, while reminding you that regulatory costs still hang over such companies.
One point worth considering: if the crypto business is already strong enough to drive overall gross profit, will the regulatory price for it also be recalculated based on this new scale?When I saw this message, what popped into my mind wasn't "which small coin is about to take off," but rather "the street is bustling, but which shop can really keep people?" This is somewhat interesting, but I'm not very willing to directly count the chain's busyness as a positive for small coins. 👀
Blockworks Research data shows that Solana successfully processed 3.38 billion transactions in October, an 81% year-over-year increase, hitting a new high for four consecutive months. The statistics exclude validator votes and failed transactions. This metric excludes two types of interference but still cannot be used to determine capital flow.
My judgment is that this is more beneficial for ecological applications to gain attention, rather than boosting all small coins. The increase in successful transactions can support discussions about on-chain usage demand; however, the number of tradable transactions is not new capital and does not indicate that ordinary users are willing to continuously pay for any particular application.
The opportunity in highly volatile assets lies in the possible redistribution of attention; the risk is packaging oneself with ecological hype. I will first look at which scenarios the activity comes from, then see if the related applications have sustained usage and liquidity support. If the hype only stays at the chain-level data, then the sentiment spread for small coins may run faster than the actual benefits—that's my speculation.
What I want to distinguish next is "usage heat" versus "speculation heat." Around this new transaction volume high, are people recently paying attention to Solana's payment and trading applications, or the blockchain gaming track? What signals would you look at to judge that it's not just a momentary buzz?ETH is still grinding down today, the rebound is weak, 2280 is pressing down, 2250 barely holding, a typical bear taking a breather.
Intel is even worse, dropping much more sharply than ETH, starting with over 5%, faith shattered after the earnings guidance bomb, the AI narrative turning from "infinite spending" to "bill due".
Both sides actually share one logic: risk appetite has collapsed. Crypto is sneezing in sync with Nasdaq; when tech stocks shiver, altcoins kneel first.
Now is not the time to guess the bottom, but to see who stands first. ETH eyes 2250, Intel better not catch the flying knife—the blade hasn't landed yet.Today Yushu surged 18%, and my long-short strategy also made a little profit. How did I operate? (Feeding tutorial) Just like going long Tesla and short SpaceX, I go long Yushu while simultaneously shorting Changxin Storage with an equal amount. The reasons are as follows: - As analyzed before, Yushu and Changxin have similar circulating ratios, with no new circulating supply in the short term. However, bearish sentiment is severe; since listing, it has dropped 60%, with nowhere left to fall. - 🔥Today's liquidation data set shows that the most dangerous signal is not how much the price has dropped, but that the bulls are paying the price in concentration! $BTC $ETH $SOL On November 4th, the total network liquidation in the past 24 hours reached $396 million, with long liquidations at $322 million, accounting for 81.3%, and short liquidations only $73.92 million. Bulls remain the main liquidated party; during the rebound, some shorts were squeezed, so neither side truly holds the initiative.
🟠BTC liquidations reached $107 million, with longs accounting for 82%. Open interest dropped to $44.5 billion, the long-short ratio rose to 2.74, and retail bullish sentiment remains high; however, Hyperliquid whales have a net short position of about $887 million, showing a clear divergence in capital flow. The short-term key range is 78724–79012; only if it holds and positions recover should strength be considered; breaking below means continuing weak oscillation.
🔵ETH liquidations were $59.9 million, with longs at 66%, open interest around $22 billion, and daily bearish alignment still unimproved. 2193 is a risk observation level; near 2250 just experienced a bull washout, so it's not suitable to rush to bottom-fish.
🟣SOL liquidations were $26.9 million, with longs at 88%, accounts with longs at 78.6%, but active buying only 56.6%, total open interest down over 10%, and funding rates turned negative. 94.35 is the defense level, 96.04 is the strength observation level.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $BTC saw nearly 200 million liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours
Long position leverage was almost wiped out in one go
But looking at the on-chain data
Whales quietly accumulated 3.03 million coins this month
Setting the strongest accumulation record since February
While you're getting liquidated and cut losses from stop-outs
The main players are vacuuming up bloodied chips below
The heavy losses and negative news are dumped
Yet the market is full of rigid buying to catch the dip
After the chip turnover, this position simply can't fall
#BTC
$BTC
👇$ETH on Binance, the long-short ratio for $ETH has surged to 2.67, with 70% of positions stubbornly holding long.
The order book buy orders are extremely weak, with a cluster of long liquidation orders around $2284.
The more retail investors rush to bottom-fish with leverage, the more liquidity they provide to the whales.
With this chip distribution, a downward spike and targeted liquidation is just a matter of time.
#ETH
$ETH
👇$BTC odds don't lie, the Republicans lose big, the Democrats win big. Actually, elections boil down to two major financial groups balancing each other. This time, the Jewish financial group wins big over the Anglo-Saxon group. The Democrats are backed by the Jewish financial group, the Republicans by the Anglo-Saxon group. Next, it depends on when the Democrats start investigating Musk, and whether they really find anything. Just to mention here, if BTC can't hold the last line at 74800-75000, it will completely collapse. Now the whole market is watching BTC's mood, just seeing how those at 76500-77500 plan to borrow money to cover their positions and where that will lead.#US midterm elections are approaching, which results are worth paying attention to?
After the midterm elections, there might be strikes against Iran, but then Trump indicated a pause on striking Iran. What impact do the midterm elections have on crypto?
If one chamber or both chambers are lost, it could mean a continuation of regulatory deadlock, with $BTC being more resilient and $ETH more sensitive.
The mainstream consensus on the midterm election expectations is more about a slim majority rather than a decisive majority 🤔
From a regulatory perspective, the already effective GENIUS Act will not be repealed by the new Congress, while the CLARITY Act was already defeated in the Senate procedural vote before the election (49:50), making its passage in 2026 nearly impossible.
If the Democrats take one or both chambers, what they truly gain are hearing rights, subpoena power, and investigative authority, not the votes to rewrite laws.
The presidential veto remains a firewall. As for the "Democrats achieving a two-thirds majority to override a veto," the probability in this election is very low. A more likely scenario is continued legislative gridlock, with regulatory friction shifting from "Congressional legislation" to "committee investigations + administrative enforcement."
The impact on BTC is limited; its pricing anchor is macro liquidity, dollar credit, and institutional allocation. The distribution of congressional seats does not directly alter these variables. Even if the Democrats sweep, BTC remains the most resilient crypto asset.
However, for ETH, ETH and DeFi are more deeply tied to market structure legislation, securities classification, and compliance pathways. The death of the CLARITY Act combined with intensified Democratic scrutiny will suppress ETH's valuation elasticity. Pay attention to the risks The Democratic Party has a higher probability of taking the House of Representatives, while the Senate remains uncertain. JPMorgan's scenario probabilities are: Democrats sweep both chambers 66%, split Congress 26%, Republicans hold both chambers only 7%.
Currently, votes are being counted. The Democrats have secured key Senate seats in Georgia and Virginia, but the final Senate outcome depends on battlegrounds like North Carolina, Ohio, and Michigan.
Impact of different outcomes on the market
Democrats sweeping 66%: short-term pressure on US stocks, possible tightening of AI regulation, long-term US bonds benefit
Split Congress 26%: legislative deadlock, market neutral bias, US bond yields decline
Republicans holding both chambers 7%: most favorable for US stocks, S&P may rise 1%-1.25%
Key observation points $OKB
AI/Tech stocks: If Democrats take full control, data center regulation and AI expansion may be restricted, causing short-term disruption in tech stocks.
Cryptocurrency: The CLARITY Act faces increased difficulty advancing, but the GENIUS stablecoin bill has been enacted, so regulatory direction will not reverse.
US bonds: With a divided government or Democratic sweep, fiscal expansion is limited, and long-term yields are very likely to decline.
Gold: Political uncertainty + fiscal deadlock, gold still has medium-term support. $XAU
My judgment
Historically, 6-12 months after midterm elections, both US stocks and Bitcoin have a good rebound window. But in the short term, don't rush to go all in; vote counting results, key seats, and the Iran situation are three variables still present, so volatility will not disappear immediately. #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ Morgan Stanley recently officially integrated DTCC's (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation) tokenization service, becoming one of the first banks to adopt it. This is true; on October 28, DTCC's DTS service just went live, and Morgan Stanley was among the initial participants. Let's look at the scale and data. The first batch of institutions connected includes 20 entities, besides Morgan Stanley, also Wall Street giants like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citibank. Initially, 34 types of qualified securities can be tokenized, mainly some Russell 1000 large-cap stocks, mainstream ETFs, and U.S. Treasuries, representing a total market value of about $30 trillion. How does this work? Simply put, it’s not about issuing a new coin for speculation. It creates a "1:1 digital twin" within the existing DTC custody system. That means if you have real stocks held in custody at DTC, the system generates a corresponding token for you. This token is backed by real securities, with dividends, voting rights, and other shareholder benefits intact—it's not a synthetic asset created out of thin air. Why do this? Mainly for collateral management and settlement efficiency. With this token, institutions can transfer assets 24/7 within compliant wallets without worrying about U.S. stock market hours. For conversions during normal trading hours, DTCC aims to complete them within 15 minutes. 0x50c2be4b3958c358e2654c6dabb4feb9e1cc7777 0xe797e34845f5c23b1f578c7c49a101fca4Fear and Greed Index is only 37, the aftermath of Binance's $6.3 billion hack is still unsettled, mainstream coins are collectively turning red—but opportunities often hide in panic.
BTC ($76,531, -1.36%): $76,000 is the average cost line for short-term holders, and the 200-day moving average at $73,169 forms the long-term trend watershed. ETFs saw a single-day outflow of $643 million, but leverage clearing is nearing its end, and the mid-to-long-term technical outlook remains optimistic.
ETH ($2,252, -1.89%): October spot ETFs recorded a record net outflow of $1.61 billion, but whales are accumulating nearly $30 million against the trend. RSI has dropped to 29.78 entering the oversold zone, and $2,200 is a critical battleground between bulls and bears.
SOL ($91.32, -2.45%): After breaking the key support at $96, $90-91 has become the last line of defense. RSI around 26-31 indicates severe overselling, short-covering could trigger a technical rebound at any time, but four consecutive weeks of ETF outflows show weakening institutional demand.
The market is in a "sentiment low + technical oversold" recovery window; stay clear-headed amid the panic.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？