Orbit Post Sitemap
In Orbit, a post recently gave a strong explanation for the recent surge of small coins. I'll first present its argument, then verify it step by step. Its claim is as follows: After a major exchange was hacked, some coins were still missing to be replenished. Before replenishment, the demand to cover the gap supported the price, so it strengthened; once replenished, the buying pressure instantly disappeared, then it weakened or followed the market trend. The post specifically mentioned UNI, AAVE, LINK, saying their strength is related to this. This post had 40,000 views tonight. The explanation sounds reasonable but doesn't mean it can be directly applied. I will verify it through three checkpoints. First checkpoint: Is the timing correct? How many days are left in the replenishment window? The post's estimate is not an official statement. Since the window period is not fixed, the premise of "strength before replenishment" remains questionable. Using an undefined timeframe to judge strength or weakness leads to an unreliable conclusion. Second checkpoint: Is the attribution too simplistic? When small coins strengthen, the overall market is also rebounding, and sector rotation is happening. Multiple reasons may underlie the same price movement. Recognizing only the replenishment buying pressure excludes other causes. Exclusion requires evidence; without evidence, exclusion is just picking a convenient explanation. Third checkpoint: Can it be falsified? After the replenishment announcement, how the price moves determines if the explanation is wrong. If it remains strong after replenishment or weakens before replenishment, the explanation must be revised. An explanation that cannot specify "what counts as wrong" is the most dangerous—it can always be retrofitted and never proven wrong, thus never helpful. After these three checkpoints, my conclusion is: this explanation can be considered.A company called Strive bought Bitcoin again: 124 coins, spending 10 million USD, bringing its total holdings to 43,124 coins. The number isn't large, but it's worth breaking down.
First, look at how small 124 coins is. Compared to its own 43,124 coins, it's less than three-thousandths. This isn't a strategic-level accumulation, more like a planned step forward.
What’s notable is the pace, not the amount. 10 million USD isn’t a big sum for a company holding 43,124 coins, nor is it pocket change; it’s a routine top-up, announced and executed in batches.
Next, consider the mechanism. The logic for a listed company buying coins differs from that of retail investors. Retail investors watch intraday charts; companies look at financial reports, financing windows, and board schedules. Purchases are periodic and won’t stop just because of a single bearish candle.
So this kind of buying is a slow variable; it can’t support the top but can hold the bottom. Think of it as one hand absorbing selling pressure during a decline, not as a match lighting a fire. The short-term direction of $BTC still depends on spot funds and leverage structure.
Here’s a point worth pondering: with a stock of 43,124 coins, incremental additions of one or two hundred coins each time mean the marginal push is shrinking. The same amount of money has less and less price leverage. What to watch isn’t how much was bought this time, but how long until the next announcement. In the evening, the Bitcoin market continued to maintain a rhythm of repeated consolidation and grinding, with the overall market trapped in a narrow range between 77500 and 78600, continuing to oscillate. After testing resistance with a midday surge, the market slightly pulled back, but the rebound structure that stabilized at a low level in this round was not broken, and the foundation for the bulls' recovery remains intact.
The price attempted to break above the 78600 level but failed to hold effectively, facing short-term pressure and retreating slightly. However, the pullback was limited, and overall it remains a healthy adjustment without weakening.
From the hourly chart structure, the intraday rebound high coincides closely with the previous resistance high, indicating a potential double top resistance pattern brewing. But the pattern is not fully established yet; only if the core support at 77500 is effectively broken will the double top structure be confirmed, and the market will turn weak.
As long as the 77500 support holds firmly, all pullbacks are just internal range consolidations and tug-of-war, and the bulls still retain the opportunity to break upwards, continuing the oscillation and recovery rhythm.
The evening trading strategy is very clear: mainly focus on buying the dip.
Rely on the key support below for low entry positions. Friends who have already entered the market should strictly control their positions and hold patiently. At the same time, pay close attention to substantial breakouts at the upper and lower boundaries of the range, strictly set stop-losses for defense, and adjust the strategy accordingly after a breakout.
Buy Bitcoin near 77800, target 78500-79500.
Buy Ethereum near 2290, target 2300-2340 $BTC $ETH BTC pulled back after surging to $78,831: The market is exposing a more important issue
A few hours ago, BTC broke through $78,500, with short-term buying taking the lead for a while. But the latest price has fallen back to $77,690, almost completely erasing the previous breakout gains.
What is worth noting in this move is not just the decline, but the lack of sustained support after the breakout.
The 15-minute chart shows MA5 and MA10 at $77,851 and $77,862 respectively, and MA20 at $77,969. The price has fallen below all three moving averages, indicating a short-term weakening of the structure.
The Bollinger Bands middle line is at $77,969, with the lower band at $77,678. The current price is close to the lower band, and the KDJ J value has dropped to 19.5, reflecting strong selling pressure but also suggesting a possible technical rebound in the short term.
Next, the area around $77,680 is the first key level to watch; if it breaks, attention should turn to the $77,448 support. On the upside, it remains to be seen whether the $77,850–$78,000 range can be reclaimed.
My judgment is: a failed breakout is more worthy of study than a normal decline because it means the funds that were willing to chase the highs may now be forced to reassess risk.
However, based on the 15-minute chart alone, it cannot yet be concluded that a larger-scale decline has formed.
Do you think BTC’s pullback after the surge is a short-term leverage cleanup, or does it indicate that the selling pressure above $78,000 is stronger than expected? In March 2023, Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, and the stablecoin USDC briefly lost its peg. Looking back at this now, I still feel a bit dazed. Putting bank failure and stablecoin de-pegging in the same sentence just feels unsettling.
When chatting about crypto, people casually say "convert to U and hold," as if stuffing loose change into a pocket. But thinking about that episode, I no longer take the name "stablecoin" so lightly. Knowing it was only a brief de-peg later on makes it easy to say in hindsight. But if I had been there at that time, holding USDC in my hand, could I have calmly finished my meal? Probably not; I’d have barely taken a few bites before I couldn’t resist checking my phone.ZEC Surge and Pullback: What Does the Selling Pressure Above $1280 Reveal?
ZEC quickly rebounded from around $1210, once surging above $1280, but the rise failed to continue, recently pulling back to $1248.
The most noteworthy aspect of this movement is not the rebound magnitude, but why the price couldn't hold the gains.
The 15-minute chart shows ZEC forming a continuous pullback after the surge, with MA5 and MA10 at $1252 and $1249 respectively, and MA20 at $1252. The current price has fallen back below this dense moving average zone, indicating weakening short-term buying strength.
The KDJ indicator’s K value has dropped to 47.92, and the J value to 43.51, showing a clear cooling of momentum. The previous rise was rapid, but the pullback was equally swift, reflecting unstable high-level support.
Next, the $1259–$1263 range is a key resistance zone. Only by breaking through and holding above this can there be a chance to challenge $1280 again.
On the downside, watch $1240 and $1233. If these supports fail, the $1210 low may be retested.
I believe that to judge whether a rebound truly changes the trend, one should not only look at how high funds push the price, but also where the market is willing to absorb positions after the buying enthusiasm fades.
Currently, ZEC is still in the phase of direction verification after intense volatility; short-term, one rebound should not be equated directly with a trend reversal.
Do you think ZEC is completing a turnover before a rise, or has a new selling pressure zone formed near $1280? $ZEC ZEC has been stuck around 1270 for a long time, clearly someone is supporting it from below.
Looking at the data, a big holder finished buying over 3000 spot coins but wasn't satisfied, then immediately opened a long position with 2x leverage on 8000 coins.
The funny thing is that 84% of the positions across the network are actually short, especially the giant whale short at an average price of 1256 with 180 million U, now all underwater holding on hard.
Above are all stop-loss orders; if the price moves up slightly from this position, it will trigger a chain of liquidations. One big bullish candle could wipe out the shorts completely, let's see who cracks first.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇BTC has already pulled back above $78,000 today from the low of $76,400 a few days ago.
It looks like a correction.
But I think it's still a bit early to say "it's stable" now.
Currently, BTC is around $78,500.
It's actually just a little short of $80,000.
Here's the issue:
If it can reclaim $80,000 tonight and not immediately drop after touching it, then this rebound will somewhat look like something.
If it gets pushed back near $80,000,
then this phase looks more like a correction after a big drop, rather than the market truly turning strong again.
So tonight, I don't really care if it rises 1% or 1.5%.
I'm just watching one thing:
Whether $80,000 can be reclaimed or not.
This level should be quite interesting today.
#BTC #Bitcoin #MarketWatch #CryptoCommunity$NEAR NEAR's project team doesn't even bother to pretend anymore.
They minted an additional $13 million in a single month, then turned around to do a $1.9 million buyback announcement. All the bought-back tokens were stored in the treasury, not a single one was sent to the black hole.
The minting speed is several times that of the buyback, so there is basically no real burn in the market. No matter how hard the bulls try to hold the price, they are just absorbing the tokens for the project team. With such a large circulating supply, the price can only keep declining steadily.
#NEAR
$NEAR
👇#BTC continues to face pressure, with capital and market trends diverging
This afternoon I came across "an ancient whale that has been dormant for six years has awakened," and my first reaction was that it would trigger a sell-off. After reviewing that transaction, I actually think this batch of coins is just moving house.
At 14:53 Beijing time today, an old address that received 999.95 BTC in September 2020 moved. In the same transaction, coins from two other old addresses were combined and sent out together: exactly 1,500 BTC went into a new address, and the remainder went to another address. Both receiving addresses had no prior on-chain records.
Before the main transaction, two small transfers of over ten thousand satoshis each were sent to the new address in the same block, seemingly to test if the address could receive funds. Dozens of dust inputs accumulated from several old addresses were also cleaned up in the process.
At first, I also thought that when an ancient address wakes up, it would be to sell on exchanges. If it were selling, the usual pattern is to split into several transactions sent to exchanges. This time, several old addresses consolidated into one new whole number address, and they tested it first, which looks more like a wallet change or custodial reorganization. Whose coins these are cannot be seen on-chain, so don’t jump to conclusions.
Based on OKEx spot price tonight, these 1,500 coins are worth about 117 million USD.
Next time you see "a whale awakening," first check two things in the transaction: whether the funds went to an exchange or a new address, and whether it’s one address moving or several consolidating together.
By the time I finished writing, over thirty more blocks had passed, and none of these 1,500 coins had moved. If one day they split and send to exchanges, I’ll come back and admit I was wrong.The US stock market and cryptocurrencies are the same; these are all capital markets, just different dishes on the same table. The US stock market is about to go 24-hour trading. Currently, tokenization also seems to allow 24-hour trading, making the US stock market even larger in scale. For indexes like the S&P and Nasdaq, the actual utilization rate of funds is very low. It's like having 10,000 units; without market scale, it's just 10,000. If that 10,000 is spent and then earned again, GDP goes up, and the economy improves. The US stock market is the same. If it wants to grow in scale and absorb more funds by opening 24-hour trading, it's inevitable. Tokenization inclusion is also inevitable. If the US stock market wants to siphon the world, it must strengthen its financial empire. The US dollar hegemony, with the crypto circle's USDT and USDC taking over the financial systems of weaker countries, is more subtle than the dollar itself. $BTC $SPY #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 $ETH Let's talk about the short-term outlook. The short-term daily chart still looks bearish. A specific reversal might occur around the non-farm payroll data on November 6th. The November 6th non-farm payroll data will determine whether the Fed will raise interest rates this year. Also, a quick mention about the US tech companies investing in AI: these top US tech giants have poured in hundreds of billions, and you tell me, it just produced a short drama called "Red Fruit"? Who can hold up under that? If I throw a few stones into the river, I can still see splashes. These US tech companies have invested hundreds of billions, but so far, there’s no substantial return. So the AI path is almost over. If AI crashes and drags down storage, then there might be a possibility of funds flowing back into crypto and Huobi. Therefore, it's still best to stay out of positions in the short term.$DOGE | SHORT SETUP
DOGE is showing mild bearish pressure near 0.07536. Losing the 0.07520 support could invite further selling.
Entry: 0.07525–0.07540
TP1: 0.07490
TP2: 0.07450
SL: 0.07575
Wait for confirmation before entry. Manage risk carefully.#AppleQ4iPhone18Outlook $XRP 1 billion XRP just unlocked, but not even a splash was made before it was swallowed whole by institutional channels.
Now the giant whales' chip share has directly hit nearly 70%, setting a new high in over two years.
Retail investors keep staring at the sell pressure chart, scaring themselves every day, while the big players are crazily moving the coins into their wallets underground.
The market is the most honest, stubbornly pushing back above 1.32.
At this position, the shorts are completely holding on hard, really thinking the old whales are doing charity here by giving away cheap chips.
#XRP
$XRP
👇Binance's over 6 billion yuan hole didn't crash $BTC; around 78,000 is holding steady, but ETFs ran off with 643 million USD last Friday, while IBIT counter-trended by absorbing 177 million USD. The money hasn't left the market, just changing pockets [reference:0]. The fear and greed index is only 34; prices are holding, but sentiment hasn't caught up. $ETH stands above 2300, but it still bounces with more difficulty than BTC; capital is very selective. On the altcoin side, $UNI gained 18% in a week, AAVE has been repriced, and money is specifically buying things with income and products.
A-shares saw volume and price rise together today, with 1.78 trillion in volume and over 100 billion in turnover; the ChiNext Index closed up 1.87%. AI manga dramas surged 20cm in batches, Mango Excellent Media and Jetion Holdings were fully locked up, big finance and liquor stocks also lifted the market, with over a hundred hitting the daily limit.
Hong Kong stocks: Hang Seng Tech closed up 2.25%, Yuewen rose over 15%, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, and Alibaba all turned green.
US semiconductor stocks are adjusting pre-market; SK Hynix rose nearly 5%, Nvidia up a bit over 1%, but oil prices crashed over 4%, gold climbed back to 3900. Investors are chasing chips while avoiding commodities, caught in a tough spot.First consider the worst-case scenario: if the "sanctions evasion" label triggers additional scrutiny, I worry that local compliant businesses will also face higher entry barriers.
Netanyahu proposed using cryptocurrency to evade potential banking sanctions, but the Bank of Israel opposes this, and the industry warns it could harm the Web3 ecosystem. I don't see this as a positive adoption: banking services, overseas platform scrutiny, and industry reputation could all come under pressure.
My risk control reminder is: don't just calculate price stop-losses, also include restrictions on funding channels in the risk list.I don't currently consider this short position as following the trend—seeing a short entry doesn't mean seeing a downtrend. Core Trader 90 just opened a short on $LITE with 10x leverage, nominal value about $30,600. This is a new position, and its success or failure is still unknown.
I have three rules for trading trends: First, look at the direction; if the material doesn't provide price movement, you can't use wallet choices as trend confirmation. Second, look at sentiment; if the market is already unanimously bearish, even though this trade follows the sentiment, you must guard against a short squeeze rebound, but currently, there's no sentiment evidence yet. Third, look at the fallback; with 10x leverage, a roughly 10% adverse move could wipe out the initial margin, and actual factors like maintenance margin also affect this, so even if the direction is right, it might not withstand the process.
The trend is the best friend; I prefer to wait for trend confirmation rather than guessing the top based on a single monitor. When encountering such short entry alerts, what do you all use now to judge the trend—moving averages, price structure, or volume? And which specific timeframe do you look at?An $8800 account, watching ZEC and TRX tonight. One looking for a short opportunity, the other waiting for a long opportunity; if the market doesn't cooperate, just sleep. ZEC has been very volatile recently, with active trading. TRX is not as flashy but the market is relatively orderly. I don't like forcing myself to find reasons just to make a trade. Especially at night, staring too long makes even a normal bullish candle seem like it has a story. ZECUSDT | Short again after rebound failure. First, observe around 1240. If it breaks below 1240 and the 15-minute rebound can't hold, consider shorting near 1238. Isolated margin 2x, margin 400U, nominal position 800U. Stop loss at 1270. Close half at 1200, close the rest at 1170. Stop loss risks about 21U, gross profit about 34U if both targets are hit. If it stabilizes above 1270 again, forget about this short. TRXUSDT | Wait for breakout to go long. 0.3180 is the price to watch tonight. If the 15-minute candle closes above it, and the pullback doesn't break it, and the 1-hour trend remains strong, then consider entering. Isolated margin 3x, margin about 267U, nominal position 800U. Entry at 0.3180, stop loss at 0.3090. Close half at 0.3300, close the rest at 0.3400. Stop loss risks about 23U, gross profit about 43U if both targets are hit. The two trades combined will use about 667U margin, total stop loss about 43U, excluding trading fees. Some ask, how can an $8800 account use so little margin? Because when the market turns hostile at night, the accountThe SOX Semiconductor Index is undergoing a real stress test! A sharp pullback in October, market panic continues to release, but AI computing power demand has not disappeared, and the long-term logic of the chip industry has not yet been falsified. Is the short term a risk or an opportunity? When everyone is panicking, what is truly worth paying attention to may be the starting point of the next market rally. 🔥
Do you think SOX will see a strong rebound next, or continue to test the bottom? #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 Trading volume rose by 56%, but open interest barely moved — Monday's futures market felt like it was just going in circles.
CoinDesk data: 24-hour futures trading volume was about $111.8 billion, with open interest steady at around $137.1 billion; BTC and ETH trading volumes expanded but OI basically stayed flat, and funding rates remain positive. Translation: high turnover, little new money, everyone is just shuffling cards back and forth at the same table.
Options are even more interesting: On Deribit, the top three BTC contracts traded in the past 24 hours were all puts, led by the 11/27 expiry put with a strike price of 58,000, which is quite far from the current price of about 78,000. Skew spiked after the Binance incident and has since fallen back, but puts are still more expensive than calls.
Buying long-dated puts ≠ bearish on 58,000; it’s more like buying cheap insurance for positions. This week also has election day and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, so it’s no surprise insurance is in demand.
Source: CoinDesk market data (media paraphrase), not a prediction or advice.
Do you trust "turnover" or "insurance" more? Discuss in the comments.
$BTC $ETH #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
"Circle Earnings Report Reveals the Truth About Profits"
Circle will disclose its Q3 earnings before the U.S. market opens on November 4.
Stablecoins appear to be large in scale, with earnings on the books coming from underlying U.S. Treasury interest. Coinbase took $307 million from this interest in Q3, with platform custody scale reaching $2.2 billion.
Sixty percent of dividends are directly diverted through channels, leaving the issuer with only about 40% of the gross profit. The real value of this business depends entirely on the pre-market disclosure. $BTC One of the most important signals to watch for at the start of a Bitcoin bull market has appeared! The seller exhaustion index has bottomed out again but did not make a new low! $BTC
I find Murphy's chart here to be very valuable for research!
In 2018–2019 and 2022–2023, the seller exhaustion index showed a similar pattern: it first entered an extreme zone, then tested a lower point again but did not break the previous low, indicating the market was gradually completing bottom repair.
On August 11, 2026, when BTC was around 63K, the extreme signal was triggered for the first time. Now the price has retraced to around 77K, and the indicator is testing a low for the second time but remains higher than in August.
This suggests the market may be shifting from panic selling to a gradual reduction in selling pressure and chip redistribution. Of course, exhaustion in the indicator does not necessarily mean buying will strengthen; subsequent capital absorption still needs to be verified.
What really matters is not guessing the lowest point, but seeing clearly whether the bottom structure is forming as the market repeatedly tests confidence!Quoting this liquidation overview — $140M 24h, longs $65M vs shorts $76M, perfectly balanced. Volatility LOW, market stable.
Key insight: Long liquidations concentrated on $HYPE — large holders releasing collateral triggered drop. Not broad panic, but single-token leverage flush.
$BTC rose then faded, now choppy around $78K, range small. No significant swing = healthy consolidation after volatility.
#非农来袭 #BTC #HYPE #liquidations #OKXOrbit #CryptoMarket $BTC On the day $SNDK's earnings report came out, the whole group was shouting: SanDisk exploded, 14 billion buyback, stock split, earnings exceeded expectations, hurry up and rush in!
I stared at the K-line for five minutes and then opened a short position.
Why?
Because I am very familiar with cyclical stocks.
NAND prices have risen to the ceiling, the AI storage story has convinced everyone, and institutional positions are packed full. At this point, no matter how good the earnings are, they are only "in line with expectations"—the market has already priced in all the good news, and the stock price has nearly tripled from the low. Tell me, how many people haven't gotten on board yet?
No one.
The rest are all bulls waiting to cash out.
Once the earnings report lands, all the good news is already priced in, which becomes bad news. Buybacks are good, but they can't save the fact that the price hike cycle has peaked. Gross margin growth is slowing, and next quarter's guidance is just "okay," not "explosively good."
Wall Street doesn't want good; it wants better than anyone imagined.
But I know this is not the end, not the end.
The decline of cyclical stocks never stops just because they've "fallen too much."
While everyone is shouting about a super cycle, I'm thinking: who is still buying?Hong Kong SFC Prepares to Build Cybersecurity Framework: AI is Reshaping Financial Risks.
The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) plans to develop a cybersecurity framework for licensed institutions to enhance their ability to withstand the growing AI-driven cyber threats.
This move indicates that cybersecurity is becoming a core component of financial risk management. AI can help detect vulnerabilities faster, but it also enables hackers to automate attacks, create malware, and conduct more sophisticated phishing campaigns.
As Hong Kong's ambition to become a digital asset hub accelerates, standardized cybersecurity can boost confidence among investors and financial institutions.
However, the actual effectiveness will depend on the scope of application, technical standards, and monitoring mechanisms.$ENS $ETH I'll be straightforward, this market situation is making my blood pressure spike. Damn it! ETH dropped from 2350 straight down to 2284, the volume is all panic selling, clearly a shakeout orchestrated by the big players throwing money around, targeting the most fragile psychological defense of retail investors. 💀
Technically, the 2280-2290 range is a previous dense trading zone; breaking below and quickly recovering is a classic false breakdown and real accumulation. The daily MACD bullish divergence is already there, just waiting for a confirming bullish candle.
My plan is simple: buy spot at 2284, set stop loss below 2230, target first 2380, then 2450 if broken. Don't chase the highs, the pullback is the opportunity to get in.
Whether you follow or not, risk is on you. 👇👇👇$BTC Bearish: Strategy is only a few points away from its cost basis, and crypto stocks are the first to buckle
BTC current price 77765, down 0.18% in 24 hours, daily low 77600. According to Saxo Bank data, it is only a few percentage points above Strategy's average cost basis
Last Friday, crypto stocks fell harder than BTC; Coinbase dropped about 11% after releasing earnings, with trading revenue shrinking and profits supported by investment income. Strategy fell about 8%, IBIT down 5.14%
Why is this bearish? Strategy is the publicly listed company holding the most coins. If its stock price declines, its ability to buy coins through issuing shares and bonds weakens. MSCI will announce index decisions on November 11, and before that, its stock price is unlikely to stabilize
Spot funds are also withdrawing; BTC spot ETFs saw an outflow of about $643 million last Friday, the largest since June
The options side is even clearer: Deribit’s top three BTC options traded in the past 24 hours are all puts, with the top one expiring on November 27 and strike price 58000.
#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 BTC fell below 78,000, while ETH rose against the trend by 1%, and XRP remained almost flat! But the truly unusual thing is the flow of institutional funds.
Just reviewed the latest product data and found a detail: BTC and ETH are experiencing capital outflows, while XRP-related products have seen net inflows. Prices haven't moved much, but the direction of funds has already started to diverge.
$BTC is around $77,779, down 0.15%. Recently, spot ETF net outflows reached $643 million, and short-term capital absorption still faces pressure. 77,000 is the support line below, and 78,500 is the level that needs to be reclaimed.
$ETH is around $2,285, up 1.03%. Related products had a net outflow of about $156 million on the latest trading day, yet the price performed stronger than BTC. Whether 2,250 can hold is more important than a brief rebound; the upside target remains 2,300.
$XRP is about $1.2498, basically flat. The latest weekly statistics show related ETFs had a net inflow of about $4.32 million, while BTC and ETH products had net outflows during the same period. Funds show a relative advantage, but there is still no clear breakthrough near 1.25; 1.30 is the next test.
In short: BTC funds are under pressure, ETH price is resilient, and XRP product side shows counter-trend inflows. Funds move first, which does not mean the market trend is confirmed.
Do you think XRP will reclaim 1.30 first, or BTC will stabilize above 78,500 first?
#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 BTC is still fluctuating around 78,000, ETH has slightly turned positive, but TON continues to weaken! What’s even more frustrating is that despite the ecosystem and Telegram integration progressing, the price still fails to respond.
The most ironic part of this market is that the expansion of the user base and applications does not mean holders will immediately see capital inflows.
Latest news: TON is continuously advancing deep integration with Telegram, updating network performance and ecosystem tools, and strengthening its positioning as the native chain for messaging applications. The narrative of long-term user conversion is being reinforced, but short-term market reactions remain cautious.
Looking first at $BTC, the price is about 77,800, with slight fluctuations over 24 hours. After losing and regaining 78,000, whether it can firmly hold this level again is the focus.
Next, $ETH is around 2,285, showing relatively stable performance. There is still resistance near 2,300, but the follow-through strength is acceptable.
Finally, $TON is about 1.78, showing weakness. Among the three coins, it faces the greatest pressure. If it continues to lose the 1.70 level, short-term pressure may increase.
Summary: BTC’s key is whether it can reclaim 78,000, ETH depends on follow-through strength, and TON depends on whether capital truly flows back after ecosystem implementation. No matter how much progress is made, it all depends on whether the capital buys in!
Do you think TON will break below 1.70 first, or BTC will stabilize above 78,500 first? #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Last week's BTC spot ETF data clearly illustrates how volatile the current capital flow is.
From October 26 to 29, there were net inflows for four consecutive trading days, totaling about $440.8 million. On the 30th, there was a single-day net outflow of approximately $643.2 million, resulting in a net outflow of about $202.4 million for the entire week.
This set of data makes me reluctant to focus solely on the "consecutive days of inflow." While the number of days looks good, the amounts and subsequent changes paint a different picture.
The funds that returned earlier have not yet formed a sufficiently stable support. When the market encounters new risks, the withdrawal speed remains very fast. As for how much buying and selling power exists outside of ETFs, it needs to be observed in conjunction with other markets; the price cannot be entirely attributed to this single channel.
Additionally, the complete data discussed tonight covers last week's trading. As of around 7 PM Beijing time on November 2, regular trading in the U.S. had not yet started, so old data cannot be prematurely recorded as today's new flow.
My attitude toward BTC does not need to flip-flop because of one day's data, but my expectations for the sustainability of buying pressure will increase. A few days of inflow is progress; what matters more is whether it can withstand negative news afterward.
What is most exhausting now is that just as there is a slight improvement, selling pressure immediately returns. Rather than rushing to declare capital's return, I prefer to wait until continuous changes in amounts and price performance gradually align.
#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 Transaction fees have surged by 97%, but $HOOD Chain is not dead!
The meme coin craze on Robinhood Chain has significantly cooled down. But should we conclude that this blockchain has failed?
A different perspective from Chetan Dugar:
59% of stock token trades occur outside Wall Street trading hours.
About 200,000 people in over 120 countries hold these stocks.
Currently, $540 million is held in loan vaults.
Even with reduced speculative capital flows, the stock tokenization market remains active.
However, there is a paradox here: Robinhood Chain aims to be a global financial infrastructure, yet key control remains concentrated in one company. Moreover, the token does not grant holders real shareholder rights.
Is the future of Robinhood Chain in RWA and tokenized stocks, or does it still depend on the next speculative bubble? The latest on-chain monitoring shows that a top-tier whale's perpetual contract positions have reshuffled again, firmly maintaining a complex hedging matrix of “BTC short + ETH long + HYPE short.” The overall unrealized P&L fluctuates sharply with market volatility, with funding rates being a key variable.
📊 Complete Position Breakdown
✅ BTC Short | 40X Full Position
Position: -180.5 BTC, position value 14,205,000 U
Entry Price: 76,800.0 U
Unrealized Profit: +124,000 U
Funding Fee Income: +225,000 U
Margin: 355,000 U, liquidation price: 102,300.15
✅ ETH Long | 25X Full Position
Position: 6,500.0 ETH, position value 15,802,000 U
Entry Price: 2,480.50 U
Unrealized Loss: -953,000 U
Funding Fee: -52,000 U
Margin: 632,000 U, liquidation price: 1,620.40
✅ HYPE Short | 5X Full Position
Position: -188,000 HYPE, position value 16,508,000 U
Entry Price: 75.200 U
Unrealized Loss: -2,806,000 U
Funding Fee Income: +854,000 U
Margin: 3,301,000 U, liquidation price: 108.65 More BTC traders are shifting to long-term holding???????
Data from November 2 shows that as of November 1, the 30-day average of active Bitcoin addresses was 629,000, down 43% from the peak of 1.1 million in December 2024, and about 10% lower than this year's average of 702,000. Historically, this indicator dropped by 50% within three months in the same period of 2018, while the current decline has lasted nearly two years with a more gradual pace.
At the same time, the 30-day average of daily Bitcoin transfers is 819,000 BTC, only down 5.4% from last December and about 5.5% above the annual average.
This reflects several points:
1. Structural differentiation: participation breadth shrinks, single transaction volume rises; retail and ordinary users exit, on-chain liquidity is dominated by institutions/whales, ETFs, and custody transfers.
2. Slower decline pace: compared to the rapid drop in activity in 2018, this round is a prolonged two-year cooling, characteristic of a long bottoming process.
3. No signs of recovery: both indicators have recently declined simultaneously, with no signs of new retail inflows on the network.
4. Narrative shift: the price battle focus is increasingly moving towards exchanges, ETFs, and derivatives, while the weight of on-chain native user activity declines.
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 Today, the short position on Ethereum ($ETH) really gave me a hard time! Luckily, I hedged a bit with a long position on Bitcoin ($BTC) at the right spot earlier and got some blood back, otherwise it would have been all for nothing! Bitcoin finally almost touched 79,000, but then got pushed back below 78,000, even failing to hold the 4-hour EMA20! Ethereum dropped after reaching 2318 but still stayed above the short-term moving average. The bulls struggled all day but still couldn't break out! Crude oil once dropped over 4% today, Brent crude returned near $109, and there are signs of diplomatic easing between the US and Iran. US stock futures are also rebounding. The external sentiment has eased somewhat, so why is Bitcoin still so weak? I think the market is not lacking news right now, but real funds willing to chase prices! Tomorrow is the US midterm election, and the market's expectation that the Democrats will take the House is already high, putting pressure on Trump. There are also tech earnings reports, ADP, and non-farm payrolls coming up. This week is full of reasons for the market to turn! I still judge the market as weak and oscillating, but Ethereum is indeed stronger than Bitcoin in the short term. Next, watch if Bitcoin can reclaim 78,200 and truly hold above 79,150 before considering a shift to strength. For Ethereum, watch if 2270 can hold and if 2318 can be broken. Don't rush to guess the bottom or chase shorts near support levels; wait for the market to show its direction on its own! Elon Musk admits that AI agents are too costly, and revenue is barely holding up!
While aggressively expanding AI data centers, he also acknowledges that the cost of AI services is unsustainable.
On November 1, Musk responded on X to complaints from Grok Bot users:
The service cost of Grok Bot is so high relative to its revenue that it is unsustainable.
Previously, many paying users reported that their weekly usage quota for Grok Bot was exhausted early, affecting normal use.
This response exposes a real issue in the commercialization of AI agents.
Unlike ordinary chatbots, AI agents need to continuously call models, search for information, and execute tasks, consuming computing power that may far exceed that of a simple Q&A.
The more active the users, the higher the computing cost may be.
Interestingly, Musk is massively expanding AI data centers but also faces the challenge of how to make AI application revenue cover computing costs.
This is not only Grok's problem but a challenge the entire AI Agent industry must solve.
In the future, AI services may further shift to pay-per-use, limit usage quotas, or reduce inference costs through technological upgrades.
Competition in the AI industry is moving from whose model is stronger to who can actually make money.
Musk's public statement this time precisely reveals the cost pressure behind this competition. Let me rant a bit: The midterm elections are the Democrats and Republicans competing for votes in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Polling stations close at 7 PM tomorrow, and the vote count will be completed by 4 AM the day after tomorrow.
I think everyone should pay close attention to the results. If you have bought US stocks and want to exit, tonight is the only chance to do so. The market will be closed during the day tomorrow, so trading won't be possible. The probability of a drop in US stocks tonight is very high.
Currently, it is estimated that the Democrats have a strong lead in the House of Representatives, with a predicted 92% chance of taking control. The Republicans are mainly focused on the Senate, which controls appointments and legislation.
The Trump administration is still in power. He supports virtual currencies and is friendly to crypto. The crypto industry can get the green light under him because he can make money. If the Democrats take power again, some of your bills, some exchanges, and some crypto-related matters might not pass. For example, that old lady Harris would block them.
To put it this way, in my view:
If the market drops sharply in the next few days and then hits support, and the Republicans lose the House but take the Senate, the decline will stop. If both chambers are lost, then after the election, a real crash and bearish news will follow.
If the market doesn't drop and rebounds, but the Republicans lose the House and take the Senate, it will still fall a bit. If both chambers are lost, then after the election, there will be another big crash.
Losing one chamber and gaining the other is the best outcome.
After this is over, it depends on whether Trump attacks Iran.
Will an attack on Iran face difficulties in the House?
On the path to passing crypto legislation,
Will the Senate lean towards the Democrats?
These are matters for later. Tonight, Bitcoin is expected to have a small bullish spike led by the US stock market opening. If it happens, seize the opportunity and sell your long position at 77,800 above 79,000.Capital Flow: ETFs Are Withdrawing, Whales Are Buying, but "Support Is Thinning"
ETFs—Net outflow of approximately $859 million over the past 6 trading days
The US spot BTC ETF has been continuously bleeding recently, with a single-day net outflow of $262 million, wiping out all inflows from the previous day. On Friday, there was a single-day outflow of $643 million, ending a four-day winning streak and turning the week into a net outflow of $202 million. Capital at the ETF level is systematically retreating.
Whales—Holdings rose to 3.03 million BTC, but internal division exists
CryptoQuant data shows that total BTC whale holdings have risen to 3.03 million BTC, the highest since November 2025, with a 30-day accumulation speed being the fastest since February this year. However, whales are not acting uniformly: BTC whale positions on Hyperliquid have turned net short for the first time since March this year; simultaneously, some whales sold 1,312 BTC to switch to ETH.
The most critical signal—Support below 80,000 is thinning: Glassnode’s analysis of Binance’s order book reveals that large buy orders near 80,000 have been absorbed, with new buy orders concentrated around 78,000. Although the price has returned above 78,000, support below 80,000 is thinner than before, and a break below would create a vacuum.
US government address activity: On November 1, US government-related addresses transferred a total of 6,215 BTC (about $520 million) to Coinbase Prime within 32 hours, of which 3,974 BTC came from the 2016 Bitfinex hack. The slow, batch transfers seem more like "procedural preparation," and if transfers continue, that would be a real signal.
Liquidation structure: In the past 24 hours, the entire market saw about $102 million in liquidations, with longs accounting for 67.4%. However, BTC’s liquidation structure is special—short liquidations account for 60.6%, indicating that during the consolidation process, those chasing shorts at low levels were hit more, suggesting short-term momentum for a continued rebound.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $SOL
Today, not many people saw this Solana announcement: CVE-2026-98432, rated 9.8.
The foundation asked validators running Ubuntu to take action themselves first by blocking IPv4 TCP packets and disabling MPTCP, waiting for Ubuntu to release a fixed kernel. IoTeX also said it was affected.
On-chain security issues mostly end up impacting the price. This time is different. SOL is now at 94.12, down 0.7% in 24 hours, ranging from 93.14 to 95.89, with a volatility of less than 3 points. Spot trading volume is $55.87 million for the day, perpetual positions at 338 million, and the funding rate remains +0.01%.
No one is running away. Validators should patch as needed, and longs should keep holding. A 9.8 severity vulnerability is priced at zero by the market—either the news hasn't spread yet, or everyone understands clearly that this fix is for a machine's kernel, not the consensus layer.
I lean toward the latter. When something really goes wrong, the price first gives you a long lower shadow, not a flat day.
But I can't say for sure. The weekend market is thin; if validators get swept out, Monday will reveal the outcome.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Brother Sun became the largest holder, but what really caught my attention was another address
Sun Yuchen holds 2.82% of the PEPE supply, worth $51.25 million, with unrealized gains exceeding $2 million. These figures have gone viral across the network. A whale openly increasing their position is certainly a signal, but what really made me put PEPE back on my watchlist was another piece of news that few people have discussed: an ancient address that had been dormant for a whole year transferred 1.45 trillion PEPE to a new wallet.
The key is how the market responded. Those two large addresses together transferred out over $10 million worth of PEPE, which should have been a warning of a sell-off, yet the price not only didn’t drop but actually rose 10.8% intraday, with 84% of the 12-hour trading volume concentrated in the last 6 hours — the buying pressure completely absorbed the selling pressure. What does this indicate? It shows that the demand depth at this level is on a completely different scale compared to six months ago. The ancient whale is moving, new funds are stepping in, Brother Sun is locking up his holdings, and the chips are transferring from "people who have held for a long time" to "people who want to hold even longer."
The market cap gap between PEPE and SHIB has narrowed to $1.06 billion, and the chase speed is visible to the naked eye. $PEPE’s current market situation isn’t about a single bullish candle; it’s about the underlying holding structure undergoing a blood change. Once this change is complete, those major psychological price levels above are just a matter of time.Memory chips are testing the market's nerve, and the pre-market mood is grim. The industry leaned on $SKHYNIX to hold the line for a single session before the offsetting decline arrived, stripping away the last bit of cover. Google has slid back toward its March lows, while $MU and $SNDK are probing support levels last defended in July. The setup is less a story about one earnings print than a stress test across memory, mega-cap platforms, and the macro calendar at once. What makes this moment iOthers ask AI "Have you spent too much?", Apple is asked "Have you spent enough?" — Tonight is Ternus' debut earnings report. 😁😁
Closing at $344.63, options imply ±4.2% (about $330–$360).
Expected revenue $113.4 billion (+11%), EPS about $2; iPhone revenue +15%.
Storage price increase, gross margin guidance about 47–48%.
Those who burn money get hit, those who burn less also have to deliver?
$AAPL $GOOGL $AMZN #Lumentum光通信业务扩张，订单表现待揭晓
Lumentum closed with a 24% premium, Marvell exchanged stock for the future—will the market accept this deal?
Let's look at the market first. Before suspension, Lumentum closed at 840.70, with the consideration equivalent to 1132 per share, a 23.9% premium.
Marvell's side looks worse: an all-stock deal, MRVL shares once dropped over 10% intraday, hitting a low near 190. In the same transaction, the seller gets a check, the buyer gets the bill—Wall Street arithmetic never shows mercy.
For Lumentum, the impact is straightforward: shareholders locked in a 23.9% premium, but they received Marvell stock, not cash, effectively tying their value to a larger AI interconnected narrative. The cost is that the independent growth story ends here; from now on, however much Lumentum’s optical modules and lasers earn, it must be diluted within Marvell’s consolidated financials.
Its own performance is not bad—Q1 revenue up 136.5% year-over-year, and next quarter guidance is strong—but after acquisition, the market will no longer assign it a "pure optical communications play" valuation premium.
For Marvell, this is a move they had to make, but the short-term numbers look ugly.
They are buying a "chip + optics" vertical closed loop—DSP, lasers, and optical modules all in one company, theoretically shortening customers’ product time-to-market, with a TAM called out at 550 billion and annual synergies over 1 billion.
The problem is, Marvell has less than 4 billion in cash on hand, and the 115 billion deal relies entirely on share issuance. $BTC October low was 76,265, and now many people place their stop losses just below it. Data tells you this position is the easiest to be swept.
OKX nearly 1000 days daily line, BTC broke below the 30-day low 63 times:
✅ Recovered on the same day 36 times, accounting for 57%
✅ Stop loss placed 0.5% below the low: hit 54 times, 28 times pulled back the same day
✅ Placed 3% below the low: hit 19 times, only 3 were false breakouts
Most of the spikes only pierce about 1% more, exactly where beginners like to place stop losses.
A more stable approach: place stop loss farther at 3%, reduce position size accordingly, single loss still controlled within 1% of principal (example: principal 10,000U, stop loss 3%, position about 3,300U, no leverage). Also, recovery ≠ reversal: among those 36 times, only 19 stayed above the low after 7 days.
Stop loss should be placed at the "I was wrong" point, not where everyone can see it.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX BTC-USDT daily line 2024/2–2026/11 #BTC continues to face pressure, divergence between capital and market trend #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 11月2日—11月8日全球宏观指引：政策推出，中期选举+非农接棒Fed！AI芯片链接受第二轮盈利大考！ Fed政策导向交给数据，能源重新出现谈判窗口，中期选举决定财政与监管预期，非农决定12月加息能否重新锁死！ （周一进入美国冬令时，美股与美国宏观数据比夏令时推迟1小时公布与开盘） 定价逻辑变化： #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 上周，Fed → GDP/PCE → 12月加息 → 美债 → AI巨头财报 本周，中期选举 + 美伊谈判→财政预期 + Brent→ISM制造业+服务业 +JOLTS +ADP +非农→看增长 + 就业 + 工资 + 通胀压力重新组合→12月加息概率→US2Y、UW10Y US30Y→全球流动性→AI估值、黄金走势，#BTC 走向 宏观主线指引：政策退出 → 数据接管 → 政治扰动 → AI产业链二次验证周 第一主线——Fed鹰派暂停，政策指引真空期，数据来决定12月政策导向！ 1, 10月虽然加息暂停，但是Fed将通胀描述为高压，将经济描述为强劲，同时Fed理事有两名支持10月加息，结合沃什讲话，典型鹰派暂停，后续加息预期反而提高 2，10月的鹰Copy trading discipline: Stop loss at 0.00175, take profit in batches at 0.0015/0.00135/0.0012.
Use 10x leverage to press position by 10-20%, survival is key to output.
Shorting reason: $SOPH surged and then fell back on the day, short at 0.001735, floating profit at 0.001526. Continuous unlocking makes bulls hesitant to follow up; if funding rate is relatively high, shorts have better cost performance; technically overbought and falling back.
Real background: Shallow circulating supply, transitioning to consumer applications (like Pyre) with revenue not yet scaled, buying pressure can't resist selling pressure, volume increase with stagnant price is a shorting point.
Future resistance at 0.00175, support at 0.0012, break below looks toward 0.001. High volatility, suitable for swing trading, holding stubbornly risks drawdown. $BTC $ETH #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #加密行业协同守护资产安全 Frequent incidents of crypto asset theft, contract vulnerabilities, and phishing attacks make it difficult for any single platform to fend off risks alone; industry-wide collaborative defense is becoming a new direction. Collaborative entities include exchanges, on-chain security companies, wallet providers, public chain projects, and judicial authorities. Core actions involve blacklisting addresses, tracking funds, freezing compliant assets, sharing vulnerability intelligence, and jointly intercepting stolen funds.
Positive aspects: Collaborative defense can shorten the window for stolen funds to be moved, reduce hackers' cash-out channels, minimize user asset losses, and help improve regulatory perception of the industry, laying the groundwork for compliance advancement; institutional concerns about asset security decrease, which is beneficial for capital inflow in the mid to long term.
However, shortcomings are also prominent: cross-platform data standards are not unified, privacy conflicts with traceability; hackers continuously use mixers and cross-chain bridges to split funds, making tracking very difficult; some overseas platforms have independent jurisdiction, and willingness to cooperate varies.
Market impact tends toward long-term sentiment, with short-term difficulty in directly triggering a market surge. Key follow-ups include the number of on-chain freezing cases, whether multiple countries introduce unified asset interception regulations, and the control strength over mixing tools. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC has risen for the third consecutive day, climbing to 70,086. The impact of the 6.3 billion theft on Binance seems to have been absorbed, but the ETF saw an outflow of 643 million USD in a single day. The fear and greed index is only 37; prices are rising while money is withdrawing, creating a very conflicted situation.
As for $ETH, someone really took action—one address spent 34.69 million USDC in ten minutes to buy 15,216 coins at an average price of 2,279. The price has also surpassed 2,300, which is more straightforward than BTC. $ZEC led the gains among major coins today, rising 3% to around 1,280. Smaller coins are actually more active than the big players.
At the A-share market midday, the ChiNext Index surged 3.28%, led by media, securities firms, and liquor sectors. AI video concepts hit multiple daily limit-ups, Mango Excellent Media sealed the board, and Guojin Pacific also hit the limit. Money is rapidly flowing out from last week's risk aversion.
The Hong Kong stock market's Hang Seng Tech Index closed up 2.25%, with China International Capital Corporation rising nearly 9%, Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable exceeding 11%, as tech and securities firms jointly gained momentum. In the US pre-market, semiconductors are recovering from last Friday's sharp drop; SK Hynix rose over 5%, Nvidia up 1.4%, but oil prices collapsed, with WTI falling below 100. Money is chasing chips on one side while avoiding commodities on the other.When holding coins without moving them, you can also casually check out these opportunities. Sometimes when you open your account, you’ll find that you’ve made far fewer transactions recently. BTC and ETH are still the same, the market is watched as usual, but there’s no plan to trade daily. At times like this, I tend to pay attention to activities that complement my existing holdings. There’s no need to swap assets just to participate, and if the timing fits your schedule, it’s worth taking a closer look. OKX has just launched "Flash Earn Lite," which coincides with a BTC and ETH subscription event: after subscribing, you can receive USDT rewards, with a total prize pool of 1,000,000 USDT, including 410,000 USDT for BTC and 590,000 USDT for ETH. The event runs from November 3rd 15:00 to November 8th 15:00 (UTC+8), lasting 5 days in total. At the time of the original announcement, BTC’s expected annualized return was about 1.61%, ETH about 4%, though specifics will vary depending on participation. I think this kind of event is more suitable for those who already hold these coins. For example, if your BTC or ETH has no other use recently, you can check the subscription rules and fund arrangements to see if it fits, treating it as a small supplement during your holding period. Keep holding your coins based on your own judgment; the event is just an additional option aligned with your current plan. There is also a USDC holding event with a prize pool of 400,000 USDC, lasting longer—from November 3rd 08:00 to December 3rd 07:59 (UTC+8). This one does not require subscription or staking but is aimed at qualifying trading VIPs, who need to register and meet the requirements.Brothers, this $ZEC rebound is something else! It forcefully pulled back from the low of 1210 dollars to above 1270, gaining over 5 points intraday.
The funniest part is, two huge whales didn’t bottom-fish at the low at all; instead, they chased hard only after seeing the price rise! They dumped over 23 million dollars in to open new long positions. Especially the second guy, who averaged in at 1256, now floating a profit of over a hundred thousand dollars, and casually bought 1.5 million dollars worth of XMR—are they betting that the privacy sector is about to make moves?
But looking at the position chart, the big players are like gods fighting; although some are going long, the top few short positions worth tens of millions of dollars are still holding strong, and open interest keeps rising. This long-short battle is making people sweat in their palms.