Orbit Post Sitemap
Binance's over 6 billion yuan hole didn't break through $BTC; 78,000 and above is considered sealed, but the ETF saw a $643 million outflow on Friday, the largest single-day outflow since June. The price is holding, but money is withdrawing, and the panic index is only 37[reference:1]. On the $ETH side, some are quietly buying; the spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $185 million yesterday, with BlackRock's ETHA alone taking in $151 million. The price is hovering around 2270, and some started picking up when the ETF was withdrawing.
The A-shares market is doing its own thing today; the ChiNext Index closed up 1.87%, with a turnover of 1.79 trillion yuan, increasing by over 100 billion. AI video and media sectors hit multiple daily limit-ups, Mango Excellent Media was locked at the limit, securities firms Guojin and Pacific Securities also hit the limit, and the liquor sector followed to boost the market, with over 130 stocks hitting the daily limit.
On the US stock side, last Friday the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index just took a 7.2% hit, Intel crashed 28% in one day, $NVDA dropped over 4%, and pre-market futures tonight are trying to recover. S&P and Nasdaq futures rose at least 0.4%, but whether they can fully recover remains to be seen.$BTC is stuck below 78000 again, with the 7-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages all pressing down on it. What kind of stabilization is this pretending to be? $ETH is even worse, with funding rates turning negative and open interest dropping 3.47% in 24 hours, long positions liquidated for $32.5 billion.
ETH crashes first, BTC will follow sooner or later. This is a fake stabilization, not a pullback. BTC funding rate is still positive but not extreme, bulls are holding on hard; ETH shorts are secretly adding positions, retail investors are getting squeezed painfully.
Don’t bottom-fish, wait for the direction. Last time I bottom-fished ETH on a funding rate divergence, I got buried badly. This time I’m not catching a falling knife.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ #加密行业协同守护资产安全 BITCOIN HOLDS 78,000 USD AHEAD OF US MIDTERMS: IMPACT ON BTC AND ZEC
BTC stabilized near 78,000 USD as liquidity held steady before US midterm election results. Large caps diverged, led by ZEC climbing 3% to 1,280 USD, ETH reclaiming 2,300 USD, and BNB at 713 USD. The incoming vote determines the regulatory path of the CLARITY Act governing US crypto market oversight.
DYOR.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#Nhà phát hành stablecoin như Tether đã đóng băng hơn 1,567 triệu USD USDT $BTC MicroStrategy bought another 811 coins, but this time the money wasn't used for trading crypto
Just saw the news, Strategy bought 811 bitcoins last week, now holding a total of 849,327 coins. Many people saw this and started shouting bullish.
To be honest, Beichen says, these 811 coins are only worth $63 million, and with 849,000 coins in hand, the weekly increase is less than one-thousandth.
More importantly, what did they do this time: sold 1.18 million shares of MSTR stock, raised $164 million, then spent $208 million to repurchase preferred shares, and finally only got 811 bitcoins. In other words, more than half of the money raised through financing was not used to buy coins but to repurchase preferred shares.
This is not a signal to increase holdings, but a signal to shrink. Previously, MicroStrategy bought thousands to tens of thousands of coins per week, now only 811 coins, and they have to sell stocks to raise money and repurchase preferred shares to stabilize the stock price — the company itself knows this is not the time to be aggressive.
Looking at the market again. Bitcoin fell from 81,000 to 76,300, now at 77,700, rebounded for three days but hasn't stood back above 78,800. The long-short ratio is 2.1, retail investors are still mostly bullish.
Beichen's idea: don't chase longs at 77,700. Light short positions can be taken on a rebound to 78,500-78,800, with a target first at 77,000, and if broken, look at 76,300. When it stands above 80,000, then talk about bulls again
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Gold at $3900, do you still dare to bottom-fish?
Hook (50 words):
A 3.5% plunge on Friday hit an 8-month low. Do you think safe-haven assets failed? Wrong. Gold isn’t failing as a safe haven; it’s being used to cover positions. Today’s rebound to 3900—is it a flight for safety or a buy-in?
First, the surface: Friday’s big bearish candle smashed through the 4000 and 3975 levels, bottoming at 3870. On Monday, oil prices crashed 3%, easing inflation worries, so gold caught a breather, rebounding to 3900-3910.
Look at the candlestick: RSI at 27-32, oversold. Some in the group chat say, “Gold’s bottomed, buy!”
Bro, oversold doesn’t mean bottomed. I heard that in 2022 and in 2013 too.
First thing: Why did gold crash? Not because safe-haven failed, but due to a liquidity crisis.
Tech stocks plunged Friday, leveraged funds got margin calls, selling whatever they could. Gold has the best liquidity, so it got hit first.
This is called "safe-haven assets not acting safe in a real crisis"—because it becomes an ATM.
You buy gold to hedge risk, but when risk hits, it falls harder than stocks.
Heartbreaking? That’s the market’s dark humor.
Second thing: The Fed has no intention to save you.
October meeting held rates at 3.75%-4.00%, with two votes supporting a hike. Q3 GDP 3.4%, core PCE 3.1%, CPI high.
Market prices a 73-75% chance of a rate hike in December.
In plain terms: Money in the bank earns interest, why buy non-yielding gold?
10-year real yield at 2.90%, dollar index 101.5. These two numbers won’t drop, so gold can’t rally.
Don’t expect a "rate cut to save gold" anytime soon.
Third thing: Technically, two words—bearish.
Price far below 20-day MA 4090, 50-day MA 4270, 200-day MA. Friday’s big bearish candle broke support; 4-hour chart shows lower highs and lower lows.
Monday’s rebound near 3920 was capped—that level turned from support to resistance.
Mainstream TradingView view: sell the rally.
No daily close above 3980-4000, no reversal talk.
You’re not bottom-fishing; you’re halfway up the mountain.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
Bulls:
- RSI oversold, short-term rebound demand
- Oil price drop eases inflation, slight positive
- Central banks’ long-term gold buying demand remains
- Support at 3870-3880
Bears:
- Fed hawkish, 75% chance of December hike
- Real yield 2.90%, high opportunity cost holding gold
- Complete bearish technical structure, all MAs suppressing
- This week’s ISM, nonfarm payrolls, midterms will increase volatility
- Just broke support Friday, overhead trapped positions
Key levels:
Resistance above: 3920 → 3950-3960 → 3980-4000 (watershed for bias reversal)
Support below: 3880-3870 → 3820-3800
Strategy:
Primary: prioritize shorting the rebound.
Wait for rebound to 3920-3950, then short lightly on signs of stagnation. Stop loss above 3970-3980, targets 3880 → 3870 → 3820-3800.
Long on oversold? Only short-term.
If 3870-3880 stabilizes (long lower shadow + volume surge bullish candle), try light long positions with stop loss below 3860, targets 3920 → 3950. Cut decisively at resistance, don’t get attached or fantasize.
When you bought gold, you thought it was a "hero in chaotic times."
But when chaos came, it was the first sold for cash.
$BTC $ETH $XAU I've always been puzzled: Aren't stablecoins supposed to be inherently tied to the US dollar? When we transfer funds back and forth, we mostly use $USDT and $USDC, as if this has nothing to do with other currencies.
Then Zhao Changpeng came out and said that more countries will realize that issuing stablecoins in their own currency can boost demand for their currency and also help increase demand for government bonds. The US dollar has already taken a big lead.
To translate: stablecoins are not just tools for transfers, but also channels to help governments sell bonds. The US dollar got a head start on this path, and other countries are now trying to catch up.
I'm curious, when a bunch of local currency stablecoins really come out, will we have more choices, or just more exchange rates to keep track of?$HYPE started accumulating from 91 until now,
so it's basically starting to be profitable. To be honest,
since the large-scale unlocking last month, I've been short.
No matter how it fluctuates in between,
I believe it will eventually decline.
There are still about 78% of the tokens not unlocked.
You see, that mainstream coin only has about 20% circulating.
So it's only possible to pump it now,
after the market has more coins, it won't be possible to pump it up.
$CAP is the same, although its market cap is much lower.
But only about 15% is circulating,
once the market circulation and tokens increase, it will be hard to control the price.
It's the usual tactic, pumping hard while tokens are concentrated now.
What happens after, I think about it.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ 最脆弱的一环从来不是没人赚钱，而是赚到的那部分人以为热闹会一直续上。 你看到的"1200u 到手"，到底是奖励在发钱，还是有人在替后面的人定价？ 我先把镜头拉近一点。Orbit 上有人晒出用 xp 预测拿到的奖励，超过 1200u；发帖的女生当时手里只有 400xp，随手开了 $xSNDK 的买单，几天没看，居然挤进 25u 档的奖池，排名一度在 800 附近。听起来像捡到糖，但她自己也承认，最难受的是拿 1800xp 在 1300 的位置追 $SNDK，结果被精准扎了一下，气得胃疼 😹 这里的落差感很关键。表面上是"xp 也能换钱"，真实承接却分成两层：一层是奖池里的名次和分配，另一层是标的本身的价格节奏。前者靠参与度和规则，后者靠波动和仓位。很多人看到别人到账，会默认这套玩法稳，但奖励到账和交易盈利根本不是同一件事。奖池是概率游戏，追单是风险游戏，混在一起看就容易上头。 再看跨市场联动这一层。$SNDK 这类标的的情绪，和闪迪业绩超预期、宣布拆股后股价跌逾 13% 是同一根线：好消息被提前计价，兑现时反而成了卖点。这个传导会先打在风险偏好上，再传到山寨和题材交易的节奏里。BTC、Zhao Changpeng dropped a line: More countries will realize that issuing local currency stablecoins can increase demand for their own currency, thereby boosting demand for government bonds. The US dollar has already taken a significant lead in this regard. It sounds like an industry call, but it's actually a straightforward mechanism breakdown.
The chain he describes is: a country issuing a local currency stablecoin is equivalent to creating an always-online circulation scenario for its own currency. Foreigners who want to hold it must first exchange for the local currency; with demand for the local currency, the buyer base for government bonds also expands. Here, stablecoins are not payment tools but distribution channels for sovereign debt.
This explains why the US dollar leads. $USDT and $USDC have pushed the dollar onto every chain, every exchange, and every cross-border scenario, thus adding a batch of buyers for US Treasury bonds who only care about liquidity, not interest rates. Other countries have noticed this but lack such a network.
Therefore, it is highly likely that a batch of local currency stablecoins will emerge later: Hong Kong dollar, dirham, real, etc., initially operating within their own national regulatory frameworks before discussing cross-border use. But the pace won't be fast; the core issue is not technology but the willingness to give up some transparency in currency issuance.
For traders, this news does not constitute a directional signal in the short term. What’s worth following is the infrastructure layer—public chain assets like $BNB that support stablecoin issuance and settlement will be the first to feel changes in on-chain stablecoin supply.
One question remains: if every country issues local currency stablecoins, will competition among stablecoins turn into a contest over who has lower inflation and whose debt is more favored?#Is it a bull market pullback or a reversal crash?
AI stocks, are they really about to collapse? Or is the next bull market brewing?
In October, the Nasdaq 100 index lost over $2.5 trillion in market value.
The market is starting to question:
Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta have invested hundreds of billions building AI infrastructure, when will it truly turn into profit?
An interesting phenomenon is happening in the US stock market now:
* AI investment is still ongoing.
* Tech giants' capital expenditures are increasing.
* Investors are beginning to demand real profits, not just grand stories.
* The market's tolerance for AI valuations is declining.
I believe the long-term trend of the AI industry hasn't changed, but AI stocks don't mean they will always rise.
What really matters next is not who tells the best AI story, but who can turn AI into cash flow.
Which category do you think the current AI sector belongs to?
A. AI bubble is about to burst
B. Normal pullback, bull market continues
C. Industry is fine, but valuations are too high
#USStocks #AI #Nasdaq #NVDA #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
My US stock pre-market diary: Oil prices first took a hit, is tech catching a breath?
Pre-market futures are all green, Nasdaq futures up 0.56%, S&P up 0.32%, Dow up 0.39%.
But the real big news isn't in the stock indexes, it's in crude oil: WTI directly fell below 100, with a single-day drop of over 4%. Iran's "seven-day plan" has been streamlined to two days and can be implemented; once the diplomatic channel opens, oil prices first suppressed last week's inflation anxiety a bit.
Where is the money coming back from, and where is it going?
Semiconductors are the vanguard of the rebound. SOXL is up 3.44% pre-market, with a volume of 321 million, ranking first on the board; Micron up 1.41%, SK Hynix up 3.58%, SanDisk up 1.30%, Nvidia at 206.45 up 0.89%.
But note, this is an oversold rebound after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 7.2% last week and SOXL dropped 24% in a single day, not a trend reversal. Nasdaq futures only rose 0.56%, indicating that funds have not fully returned to tech, but are selectively rebounding in the most beaten-down storage and semiconductor stocks.
Mergers and acquisitions are in conflict.
MRVL pre-market once fell 1.33% to 193.78, LITE even more, down 3.06% to 815. It's a full stock acquisition; buyers dilute, sellers pre-collect premiums, and the pre-market movement is "settle accounts first, then talk." MRVL later pulled back some, but the merger arbitrage pressure remains, so don't rush to take sides.
The oil price drop is an assist, the semiconductor rebound is self-rescue, but market doubts about AI spending have not dissipated. [Intel Drops 28.6% in One Day: Opportunity or Trap According to Buffett's Framework?]
First, let's look at the facts. Intel released its Q3 earnings on October 29: revenue of $16.5 billion, up 21% year-over-year; data center and AI business accounted for $7.3 billion, up 78%. However, the Q4 revenue guidance is only $15–16 billion, below the market expectation of $17.1 billion compiled by LSEG. On October 30, the stock closed at $65.76, down 28.58% in one day. CNBC called it the worst day since the 1970s.
1. Circle of Competence: What Intel does is easy to understand; what's hard to grasp is who will win the process technology race in 10 years. Buffett said in his 1999 letter that the long-term economic characteristics of rapidly changing industries are far beyond their circle of competence.
2. Moat: The x86 ecosystem and demand for data center CPUs still exist. But Jefferies believes Intel will continue to lose market share next year, and its foundry business posted an operating loss of $1.85 billion in Q3. The moat is still being repaired, not widened.
3. Owner Earnings: The full-year capital expenditure plan is about $20 billion, far exceeding the $8.9 billion depreciation in the first nine months. According to Reuters, the company expects no positive cash flow this year. A rhetorical question from the 2000 letter: You can't expect the Tooth Fairy to pay for capital expenditures, right?
Conclusion: Avoid. The reasons are the rapid industry changes, negative full-year cash flow, continuous dilution of shareholders through new issuance, and lack of a margin of safety. $SOL | SHORT SETUP
Solana is struggling near $94.17. Weak price action below $94.50 keeps sellers in control. A confirmed breakdown could extend the correction.
Entry: 94.10–94.30
TP1: 93.60
TP2: 93.00
SL: 94.75
Wait for confirmation before entry. Trade with proper risk management.#AMDQ3HeliosRevenue $SNDK SanDisk is now heavily suppressed at the high point, the selling pressure from the expected cooling of the storage sector cycle continues to release, and the contract follows the A-share market to keep falling, with weak rebounds.
Kioxia has lowered its guidance, and the market is starting to worry that the flash memory price increase cycle has peaked. The storage sector valuation is cutting expectations, and funds are cashing in profits from the previous surge.
Strategy: short when the rebound reaches the resistance zone; if it doesn't hold above 1199, the bearish structure remains unchanged.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The backlash of consensus expectations: when the vast majority are betting on a rebound, liquidity exhaustion becomes the catalyst for a sharp drop.
Brothers, BTC has dropped to around 77,600. The game logic behind this market is far more brutal than it appears on the surface.
Look at an extremely extreme data point for $BTC: long positions account for 97%. Many think that strength lies in numbers, but in trading markets, this is called the "consensus expectation trap." When almost all retail investors are stubbornly holding or bottom-fishing, it means the potential buying power in the market has already dried up. Without new funds to push prices higher, what remains is longs trampling each other and ruthless harvesting by the whales.
From the trend structure perspective, the daily chart has clearly broken downwards, with the moving average system showing a perfect bearish alignment. The candlesticks can’t even produce a decent rebound, sliding completely along the 5-day moving average. This is not a shakeout; it’s a double whammy of macro liquidity contraction and micro sentiment collapse.
Looking at the order book details, there are layers of sell orders stacked above 77,674.5, indicating very strong resistance above. Meanwhile, the 20+ buy orders at 77,674.4 below are not there to support the price but are the main force creating the illusion for retail investors that "the price won’t fall further," luring more people to catch the falling knife.
Those who follow the trend prosper; those who go against it perish. The short position I placed at the high of 83,436.2 has been held all the way down to 77,675.8. The 20.71% profit is not just a gift of luck but a realization of trend awareness.
$ETH $SOL #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The midterm elections start voting tomorrow. Bitcoin has been stuck at the bottom 13–71 days after the election in the past three cycles, and historically, the US stock market has also performed very well during the same period.
Kalshi prediction market shows:
The probability of the Democrats taking the House is 94%, and taking the Senate is 71%, which will directly affect the speed of crypto legislation progress!
Especially worth noting is the CLARITY Act, which involves the division of regulatory authority over digital assets between the SEC and CFTC.
In the short term, it may not be very favorable for the crypto community, as it will be influenced by the Democrats, increasing the difficulty of advancing the bill (not necessarily) $BTC SANDISK’S STRONG RESULTS FAIL TO STOP THE SELLOFF
SanDisk reported 378% year-over-year Q1 revenue growth and issued Q2 guidance above expectations. It also announced an eight-for-one stock split, with split-adjusted trading expected to begin November 20.
Yet shares fell 13.47% on October 30 after a massive year-to-date rally.
The reaction raises a bigger question: has the memory-sector growth story already been priced in?
#SanDiskEarningsSelloff #USMidtermsPolicyOutlook
#USOctJobsReportInFocus is #1 on Orbit this afternoon.
NFP softer than expected, unemployment ticking up, wages cooling — classic Fed pivot setup. Market pricing 65% HOLD for Dec FOMC, but risk-off near-term as liquidity rotates cautious.
My outlook: Near-term volatility spike, then risk assets catch bid if inflation keeps cooling. BTC + crypto most sensitive.
Not advice. Data-driven view.
#USOctJobsReportInFocus #NFP #Fed #FOMC #BTC #OKXOrbit #MacroMacro Background: Fed’s “Slow Knife,” Nonfarm Payrolls Are the Next Switch
Three Fed officials collectively hawkish: Logan directly stated "at least two more 25bp rate hikes," Balkin and Musalem echoed, advocating a "gradual approach." This is not an instant crash-type bearish signal, but a "slow knife" of prolonged high rates and rising leverage funding costs, which is more likely to produce a market with repeated oscillations and back-and-forth long-short harvesting.
Further tightening in December seems set in stone, and Wash’s press conference was also described as "quite hawkish." The next key point is the November 6 nonfarm payroll data—if employment is strong, rate hike expectations will be reignited, and Bitcoin may be the first to come under pressure; only if employment weakens significantly can rate pressure be alleviated.
A reverse logic worth noting: BMO Capital Markets pointed out that the sell-off in AI stocks may help the Fed curb inflation—slowing data center construction can ease resource competition and inflation pressure, thereby keeping rates at a lower level. If this effect materializes, returns on bonds and cash will decrease, and Bitcoin’s relative appeal will actually increase. But this will take weeks to reflect in yields, while the short-term impact of declining risk appetite is immediate. $BTC $ETH $SOL #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ $BTC The largest hack in history ($6.3 billion). Over the past 5 days, I monitored on-chain data for 48 hours and noticed an unusual detail. Here's the conclusion first: this is not a panic bottom, but it's also not a collapse; it's a "big relocation." Look at three numbers: 1. Withdrawals resumed on Saturday, with a net outflow of $2.51 billion in one day. But 58% of that was stablecoins (USDT $1.08 billion + USDC $385 million), and BTC only accounted for 36%. To translate: what people withdrew was not a "panic sell-off," but "moving money back into their own pockets." The majority of stablecoin outflows = people are reducing risk, not betting on direction. 2. BTC current price is above 78,000, which is more than 2% higher than last Friday's low of 76,400. The Fear & Greed Index is 34, still in the fear zone, but it has climbed up from 30. 3. The most interesting: Binance BTC perpetual funding rate annualized at 10.95% — longs are paying to enter again. Of the $1.57 billion positions liquidated last week, 70% were longs. After one round of liquidation, more people are lining up to go long. My observations (not investment advice): Holding above 78,000, expect a rebound to 80,000–80,500 (last week's breakdown point). If it falls below 76,400, look down to around 74,000. Tomorrow is the US midterm election; the volatility window is within these two days. Do you think this is the "end of the shakeout" or a "downtrend continuation"? Make a bet, and I'll check the answer tomorrow. $BTC $BTC US stock pre-market, the three major futures indices slightly rose, with Nasdaq futures relatively stronger. The semiconductor and memory sectors saw a recovery rebound, with SK Hynix, Micron, and TSMC leading gains, and Nvidia warming up simultaneously. The AI sector, previously suppressed by negative sentiment due to Anthropic's financing rating, has somewhat eased.
Last week, Amazon and Intel's earnings misses triggered a collective sell-off in tech stocks. Tonight is an emotional recovery after overselling, not a trend reversal. US Treasury yields remain high, and the market still worries that AI computing power capital expenditure has a long return cycle, so valuation pressure is not fully relieved.
In market linkage, BTC is under pressure and fluctuating around 77450. The tech rebound in US stocks provides mild support to the crypto market, but incremental funds are insufficient, so the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. Focus on whether Nasdaq can hold after the open; if it weakens again, BTC is likely to retest support at 76260.
$ETH "INIT has restarted, XLM is about to vote: Upgrades are not just slogans"
Recently, the market has been shaken up by security incidents, and I am more interested in seeing how projects fulfill their technical commitments. Today, I pick two chains with completely different paths: one is fixing an incident, the other is preparing for an upgrade.
First, look at INIT. On October 23, Initia suspended its mainnet and Rollup due to a MoveVM vulnerability. The official update on November 2 stated that the network is back online, related asset support has been restored, but cross-chain bridges and exchange transfers still need to be observed and gradually reopened, with some cross-chain withdrawals set to a 24-hour waiting period. Restarting is progress but does not mean zero risk. I will monitor cross-chain recovery, DEX liquidity, and post-incident investigations, especially cautioning against mistaking "chain producing blocks" for "funds freely moving in and out."
Next, look at XLM. Stellar’s Bell protocol 30 plans a testnet vote on November 3 (UTC) and a mainnet vote on the 23rd. It involves new contract addresses, contract verification with quantum-resistant signatures, and millisecond-level ledger timing. Note, the latter two do not mean the mainnet is quantum-resistant now or suddenly speeding up to millisecond levels. I am more concerned about node voting results, wallet and exchange SDK adaptation, and whether compatibility issues arise after the upgrade.
Putting these two together is quite interesting: INIT needs to regain trust, XLM needs to prove the upgrade can be smoothly implemented. Technical narratives can be lively, but the hard truth is users being able to use the network normally. Would you rather focus on a project under repair or a well-established public chain steadily upgrading?
#INIT #XLM Not investment advice Price is moving within the $76,500–$80,000 range. The latest hourly closes of $77,880, $77,818, and $78,341 suggest buyers are attempting a recovery. However, recent volatility shows that selling pressure has not completely disappeared. The November 1 daily candle closed green, offering some short-term encouragement, but $80,000 remains the key resistance to watch. My current position: • BTC holdings: 0.1268 BTC • Average entry: $80,023 • Unrealized loss: approximately 2.4% • Available cash: 646It has dropped so much, and the friends in the group have been discussing it very actively these days, constantly asking if it's time to buy the dip?🤔️
The key bottom signal, ETF funds, have not yet shown continuous net inflows. To see real money continuously entering, it won't be a market takeoff from just a one- or two-day rebound. 🔥Is Trump going to lose? Midterm election countdown! 70% odds settled, will Bitcoin and tech stocks be repriced?
Latest prediction market data shows the Democrats have pushed the probability of sweeping Congress to 70%, and Trump's Republican Party is likely to lose the initiative.
Because midterm elections have always been the president's "midterm exam." Nearly two years into Trump's administration, the economy, inflation, and policy controversies have all become reasons for Americans to settle accounts.
To be honest, Trump was also behind in the polls in his previous two elections, but when the actual results came out, he miraculously turned things around. Can he create another miracle this time? It seems less likely at the moment.
The market is currently pricing in a Democratic sweep as the base case. For the market, Democrats taking both chambers means a significant increase in checks and balances. Trump's subsequent tax cuts, deregulation, and tariff increases will be constrained, making policy implementation more difficult.
Actually, this is not surprising. As shown in the chart, before and after the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections, the Nasdaq hit its lowest points, with significant pullbacks. This time looks no different, with a sharp correction underway.
I've actually discussed this multiple times this year, calling it the midterm election curse. The market tends to pull back as the midterms approach. I'm sure everyone remembers this—did anyone manage to sell at the top?
And you know what? According to historical data, although the market pulls back and creates a big dip during each midterm, these are actually very good opportunities to re-enter. Prices then start to gradually rise afterward, and Bitcoin is no exception. Everyone, remember to seize the opportunity~Bitcoin is gradually recovering after touching a low of $76,314 on October 30. By November 2, $BTC has climbed back toward $78,500–$78,600. I still consider $76,000 a critical support zone. As long as BTC holds above this level, the possibility of further recovery remains alive. 🎯 Key levels to watch: - $79,000 — Immediate resistance - $80,000–$81,000 — Major resistance zone - $84,000 — Next upside target if BTC reclaims $81K convincingly. However, this rebound remains relatively weak, with le#Palantir Earnings Preview: Can High Growth Support a High Valuation US midterm elections are now becoming another major risk factor for crypto markets. Prediction markets are pricing in roughly 93% odds of Democrats taking the House, around 70–74% for the Senate, and approximately 70% for a clean sweep. These are market-implied expectations, not election results. Three developments deserve attention: 1. CRYPTO REGULATION: The CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate on September 15. A change in congressional control could reshape the legislative agenda and deAfter Binance was hacked for 6.3 billion USD, customers net withdrew 3.64 billion, and ETFs also ran off with 643 million. $BTC is still holding around 78,000, the panic index dropped from 56 to 30, but the price didn’t crash accordingly[reference:1]. $ETH has climbed back above 2300, but the RSI is only 34.8, bouncing with much more difficulty than BTC. Institutional attention is clearly focused on BTC. Altcoins have become more savvy; $UNI gained 18% in a week to 7.31, AAVE has been repriced, and the lending sector rose 7.25% in 24 hours, selectively buying assets with income and products, while memes just fluctuate.
A-shares saw both volume and price rise today, with the ChiNext Index closing up 1.87%, turnover hitting 1.78 trillion with an increase of over 100 billion. AI short dramas and media surged 20cm in batches, Mango Excellent Media, Jetion, and Guomai all locked at the limit, Wintour Holdings hit the daily limit, and in big finance, Guojin and Pacific Securities also hit the limit, with over a hundred stocks hitting the daily limit. Hong Kong stocks: Hang Seng Tech closed up 2.25%, Yuewen surged over 15%, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, and Alibaba all turned green, with media and semiconductor sectors pulling together.
In US pre-market, semiconductors are recovering from Friday’s plunge. SK Hynix rose over 5%, Nvidia up 1.4%, but oil prices collapsed, WTI fell below 100. Money is chasing chips while avoiding commodities, creating a contradictory situation.Rebound divergence: ETH leads the rally, while SOL continues to weaken.
BTC is currently fluctuating around $77,700, ETH has rebounded above $2,280, and SOL has fallen back to around $94. Although all three coins are recovering at low levels, the strength difference is already clear: ETH is the strongest, BTC is consolidating steadily, and SOL continues to lag behind.
In the short term, the key for BTC is whether it can hold $77,000. If it holds, there is a chance to retest the $78,800 to $80,000 range; if it breaks down, the next support is at $76,400. Until it breaks above $80,000 again, I still consider this a consolidation phase and am not in a hurry to chase longs.
ETH is the strongest performer today, with the first resistance between $2,300 and $2,310. If it breaks and holds with volume, the next target is $2,350; if it rallies on low volume and falls back below $2,250, it may retest $2,200.
SOL is currently the weakest, with temporary support near $93, but resistance at $96. To truly turn strong, it needs to reclaim $100. If BTC falls back, SOL may be the first to break below $93 and continue seeking support around $90.
This rebound should not be judged solely by gains; the key is whether there is volume and if resistance levels can be held. Currently, ETH leads the rally, but overall, a true reversal structure has not yet formed.#US stocks and gold and silver fall sharply in sync, risk-averse capital flows diverge In a normal market, when US stocks fall, capital flows into gold and silver for safety. This time, both weakened simultaneously due to two overlapping factors: rising real interest rates + cross-market deleveraging squeeze. Inflation data is strong, and Federal Reserve officials have signaled hawkishness, causing the market to reprice "high interest rates lasting longer, with a possible rate hike in December." The holding cost of interest-free assets like gold and silver rises, naturally putting pressure on them. Meanwhile, US stocks, especially AI tech stocks, have pulled back, forcing many leveraged hedge funds and CTAs facing margin pressure to sell the most liquid gold and silver to cover positions. Gold and silver temporarily lose their safe-haven status and become "liquidation tools."
The so-called risk aversion divergence means capital no longer buys gold and silver but shifts to short-term US Treasuries and US dollar cash. The strengthening dollar further suppresses precious metals, creating a negative feedback loop. Silver has more speculative positions, so its volatility will be more intense than gold.
In terms of market impact, risk assets including cryptocurrencies are under pressure simultaneously, with rising volatility. But it is important to distinguish: this is not a panic sell-off due to geopolitical fears, but driven by liquidity and interest rate expectations. Key points to watch going forward: 10-year US Treasury real interest rates, the US dollar index, as well as inflation and nonfarm payroll data. If interest rate expectations peak and fall, gold and silver may regain their safe-haven pricing power; if interest rates continue to rise, gold and silver will continue to fluctuate weakly.
$BTC $ETH $SOL In Orbit, a post recently gave a strong explanation for the recent surge of small coins. I'll first present its argument, then verify it step by step. Its claim is as follows: After a major exchange was hacked, some coins were still missing to be replenished. Before replenishment, the demand to cover the gap supported the price, so it strengthened; once replenished, the buying pressure instantly disappeared, then it weakened or followed the market trend. The post specifically mentioned UNI, AAVE, LINK, saying their strength is related to this. This post had 40,000 views tonight. The explanation sounds reasonable but doesn't mean it can be directly applied. I will verify it through three checkpoints. First checkpoint: Is the timing correct? How many days are left in the replenishment window? The post's estimate is not an official statement. Since the window period is not fixed, the premise of "strength before replenishment" remains questionable. Using an undefined timeframe to judge strength or weakness leads to an unreliable conclusion. Second checkpoint: Is the attribution too simplistic? When small coins strengthen, the overall market is also rebounding, and sector rotation is happening. Multiple reasons may underlie the same price movement. Recognizing only the replenishment buying pressure excludes other causes. Exclusion requires evidence; without evidence, exclusion is just picking a convenient explanation. Third checkpoint: Can it be falsified? After the replenishment announcement, how the price moves determines if the explanation is wrong. If it remains strong after replenishment or weakens before replenishment, the explanation must be revised. An explanation that cannot specify "what counts as wrong" is the most dangerous—it can always be retrofitted and never proven wrong, thus never helpful. After these three checkpoints, my conclusion is: this explanation can be considered.A company called Strive bought Bitcoin again: 124 coins, spending 10 million USD, bringing its total holdings to 43,124 coins. The number isn't large, but it's worth breaking down.
First, look at how small 124 coins is. Compared to its own 43,124 coins, it's less than three-thousandths. This isn't a strategic-level accumulation, more like a planned step forward.
What’s notable is the pace, not the amount. 10 million USD isn’t a big sum for a company holding 43,124 coins, nor is it pocket change; it’s a routine top-up, announced and executed in batches.
Next, consider the mechanism. The logic for a listed company buying coins differs from that of retail investors. Retail investors watch intraday charts; companies look at financial reports, financing windows, and board schedules. Purchases are periodic and won’t stop just because of a single bearish candle.
So this kind of buying is a slow variable; it can’t support the top but can hold the bottom. Think of it as one hand absorbing selling pressure during a decline, not as a match lighting a fire. The short-term direction of $BTC still depends on spot funds and leverage structure.
Here’s a point worth pondering: with a stock of 43,124 coins, incremental additions of one or two hundred coins each time mean the marginal push is shrinking. The same amount of money has less and less price leverage. What to watch isn’t how much was bought this time, but how long until the next announcement. In the evening, the Bitcoin market continued to maintain a rhythm of repeated consolidation and grinding, with the overall market trapped in a narrow range between 77500 and 78600, continuing to oscillate. After testing resistance with a midday surge, the market slightly pulled back, but the rebound structure that stabilized at a low level in this round was not broken, and the foundation for the bulls' recovery remains intact.
The price attempted to break above the 78600 level but failed to hold effectively, facing short-term pressure and retreating slightly. However, the pullback was limited, and overall it remains a healthy adjustment without weakening.
From the hourly chart structure, the intraday rebound high coincides closely with the previous resistance high, indicating a potential double top resistance pattern brewing. But the pattern is not fully established yet; only if the core support at 77500 is effectively broken will the double top structure be confirmed, and the market will turn weak.
As long as the 77500 support holds firmly, all pullbacks are just internal range consolidations and tug-of-war, and the bulls still retain the opportunity to break upwards, continuing the oscillation and recovery rhythm.
The evening trading strategy is very clear: mainly focus on buying the dip.
Rely on the key support below for low entry positions. Friends who have already entered the market should strictly control their positions and hold patiently. At the same time, pay close attention to substantial breakouts at the upper and lower boundaries of the range, strictly set stop-losses for defense, and adjust the strategy accordingly after a breakout.
Buy Bitcoin near 77800, target 78500-79500.
Buy Ethereum near 2290, target 2300-2340 $BTC $ETH BTC pulled back after surging to $78,831: The market is exposing a more important issue
A few hours ago, BTC broke through $78,500, with short-term buying taking the lead for a while. But the latest price has fallen back to $77,690, almost completely erasing the previous breakout gains.
What is worth noting in this move is not just the decline, but the lack of sustained support after the breakout.
The 15-minute chart shows MA5 and MA10 at $77,851 and $77,862 respectively, and MA20 at $77,969. The price has fallen below all three moving averages, indicating a short-term weakening of the structure.
The Bollinger Bands middle line is at $77,969, with the lower band at $77,678. The current price is close to the lower band, and the KDJ J value has dropped to 19.5, reflecting strong selling pressure but also suggesting a possible technical rebound in the short term.
Next, the area around $77,680 is the first key level to watch; if it breaks, attention should turn to the $77,448 support. On the upside, it remains to be seen whether the $77,850–$78,000 range can be reclaimed.
My judgment is: a failed breakout is more worthy of study than a normal decline because it means the funds that were willing to chase the highs may now be forced to reassess risk.
However, based on the 15-minute chart alone, it cannot yet be concluded that a larger-scale decline has formed.
Do you think BTC’s pullback after the surge is a short-term leverage cleanup, or does it indicate that the selling pressure above $78,000 is stronger than expected? In March 2023, Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, and the stablecoin USDC briefly lost its peg. Looking back at this now, I still feel a bit dazed. Putting bank failure and stablecoin de-pegging in the same sentence just feels unsettling.
When chatting about crypto, people casually say "convert to U and hold," as if stuffing loose change into a pocket. But thinking about that episode, I no longer take the name "stablecoin" so lightly. Knowing it was only a brief de-peg later on makes it easy to say in hindsight. But if I had been there at that time, holding USDC in my hand, could I have calmly finished my meal? Probably not; I’d have barely taken a few bites before I couldn’t resist checking my phone.ZEC Surge and Pullback: What Does the Selling Pressure Above $1280 Reveal?
ZEC quickly rebounded from around $1210, once surging above $1280, but the rise failed to continue, recently pulling back to $1248.
The most noteworthy aspect of this movement is not the rebound magnitude, but why the price couldn't hold the gains.
The 15-minute chart shows ZEC forming a continuous pullback after the surge, with MA5 and MA10 at $1252 and $1249 respectively, and MA20 at $1252. The current price has fallen back below this dense moving average zone, indicating weakening short-term buying strength.
The KDJ indicator’s K value has dropped to 47.92, and the J value to 43.51, showing a clear cooling of momentum. The previous rise was rapid, but the pullback was equally swift, reflecting unstable high-level support.
Next, the $1259–$1263 range is a key resistance zone. Only by breaking through and holding above this can there be a chance to challenge $1280 again.
On the downside, watch $1240 and $1233. If these supports fail, the $1210 low may be retested.
I believe that to judge whether a rebound truly changes the trend, one should not only look at how high funds push the price, but also where the market is willing to absorb positions after the buying enthusiasm fades.
Currently, ZEC is still in the phase of direction verification after intense volatility; short-term, one rebound should not be equated directly with a trend reversal.
Do you think ZEC is completing a turnover before a rise, or has a new selling pressure zone formed near $1280? $ZEC ZEC has been stuck around 1270 for a long time, clearly someone is supporting it from below.
Looking at the data, a big holder finished buying over 3000 spot coins but wasn't satisfied, then immediately opened a long position with 2x leverage on 8000 coins.
The funny thing is that 84% of the positions across the network are actually short, especially the giant whale short at an average price of 1256 with 180 million U, now all underwater holding on hard.
Above are all stop-loss orders; if the price moves up slightly from this position, it will trigger a chain of liquidations. One big bullish candle could wipe out the shorts completely, let's see who cracks first.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇BTC has already pulled back above $78,000 today from the low of $76,400 a few days ago.
It looks like a correction.
But I think it's still a bit early to say "it's stable" now.
Currently, BTC is around $78,500.
It's actually just a little short of $80,000.
Here's the issue:
If it can reclaim $80,000 tonight and not immediately drop after touching it, then this rebound will somewhat look like something.
If it gets pushed back near $80,000,
then this phase looks more like a correction after a big drop, rather than the market truly turning strong again.
So tonight, I don't really care if it rises 1% or 1.5%.
I'm just watching one thing:
Whether $80,000 can be reclaimed or not.
This level should be quite interesting today.
#BTC #Bitcoin #MarketWatch #CryptoCommunity$NEAR NEAR's project team doesn't even bother to pretend anymore.
They minted an additional $13 million in a single month, then turned around to do a $1.9 million buyback announcement. All the bought-back tokens were stored in the treasury, not a single one was sent to the black hole.
The minting speed is several times that of the buyback, so there is basically no real burn in the market. No matter how hard the bulls try to hold the price, they are just absorbing the tokens for the project team. With such a large circulating supply, the price can only keep declining steadily.
#NEAR
$NEAR
👇#BTC continues to face pressure, with capital and market trends diverging
This afternoon I came across "an ancient whale that has been dormant for six years has awakened," and my first reaction was that it would trigger a sell-off. After reviewing that transaction, I actually think this batch of coins is just moving house.
At 14:53 Beijing time today, an old address that received 999.95 BTC in September 2020 moved. In the same transaction, coins from two other old addresses were combined and sent out together: exactly 1,500 BTC went into a new address, and the remainder went to another address. Both receiving addresses had no prior on-chain records.
Before the main transaction, two small transfers of over ten thousand satoshis each were sent to the new address in the same block, seemingly to test if the address could receive funds. Dozens of dust inputs accumulated from several old addresses were also cleaned up in the process.
At first, I also thought that when an ancient address wakes up, it would be to sell on exchanges. If it were selling, the usual pattern is to split into several transactions sent to exchanges. This time, several old addresses consolidated into one new whole number address, and they tested it first, which looks more like a wallet change or custodial reorganization. Whose coins these are cannot be seen on-chain, so don’t jump to conclusions.
Based on OKEx spot price tonight, these 1,500 coins are worth about 117 million USD.
Next time you see "a whale awakening," first check two things in the transaction: whether the funds went to an exchange or a new address, and whether it’s one address moving or several consolidating together.
By the time I finished writing, over thirty more blocks had passed, and none of these 1,500 coins had moved. If one day they split and send to exchanges, I’ll come back and admit I was wrong.The US stock market and cryptocurrencies are the same; these are all capital markets, just different dishes on the same table. The US stock market is about to go 24-hour trading. Currently, tokenization also seems to allow 24-hour trading, making the US stock market even larger in scale. For indexes like the S&P and Nasdaq, the actual utilization rate of funds is very low. It's like having 10,000 units; without market scale, it's just 10,000. If that 10,000 is spent and then earned again, GDP goes up, and the economy improves. The US stock market is the same. If it wants to grow in scale and absorb more funds by opening 24-hour trading, it's inevitable. Tokenization inclusion is also inevitable. If the US stock market wants to siphon the world, it must strengthen its financial empire. The US dollar hegemony, with the crypto circle's USDT and USDC taking over the financial systems of weaker countries, is more subtle than the dollar itself. $BTC $SPY #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 $ETH Let's talk about the short-term outlook. The short-term daily chart still looks bearish. A specific reversal might occur around the non-farm payroll data on November 6th. The November 6th non-farm payroll data will determine whether the Fed will raise interest rates this year. Also, a quick mention about the US tech companies investing in AI: these top US tech giants have poured in hundreds of billions, and you tell me, it just produced a short drama called "Red Fruit"? Who can hold up under that? If I throw a few stones into the river, I can still see splashes. These US tech companies have invested hundreds of billions, but so far, there’s no substantial return. So the AI path is almost over. If AI crashes and drags down storage, then there might be a possibility of funds flowing back into crypto and Huobi. Therefore, it's still best to stay out of positions in the short term.$DOGE | SHORT SETUP
DOGE is showing mild bearish pressure near 0.07536. Losing the 0.07520 support could invite further selling.
Entry: 0.07525–0.07540
TP1: 0.07490
TP2: 0.07450
SL: 0.07575
Wait for confirmation before entry. Manage risk carefully.#AppleQ4iPhone18Outlook $XRP 1 billion XRP just unlocked, but not even a splash was made before it was swallowed whole by institutional channels.
Now the giant whales' chip share has directly hit nearly 70%, setting a new high in over two years.
Retail investors keep staring at the sell pressure chart, scaring themselves every day, while the big players are crazily moving the coins into their wallets underground.
The market is the most honest, stubbornly pushing back above 1.32.
At this position, the shorts are completely holding on hard, really thinking the old whales are doing charity here by giving away cheap chips.
#XRP
$XRP
👇Binance's over 6 billion yuan hole didn't crash $BTC; around 78,000 is holding steady, but ETFs ran off with 643 million USD last Friday, while IBIT counter-trended by absorbing 177 million USD. The money hasn't left the market, just changing pockets [reference:0]. The fear and greed index is only 34; prices are holding, but sentiment hasn't caught up. $ETH stands above 2300, but it still bounces with more difficulty than BTC; capital is very selective. On the altcoin side, $UNI gained 18% in a week, AAVE has been repriced, and money is specifically buying things with income and products.
A-shares saw volume and price rise together today, with 1.78 trillion in volume and over 100 billion in turnover; the ChiNext Index closed up 1.87%. AI manga dramas surged 20cm in batches, Mango Excellent Media and Jetion Holdings were fully locked up, big finance and liquor stocks also lifted the market, with over a hundred hitting the daily limit.
Hong Kong stocks: Hang Seng Tech closed up 2.25%, Yuewen rose over 15%, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, and Alibaba all turned green.
US semiconductor stocks are adjusting pre-market; SK Hynix rose nearly 5%, Nvidia up a bit over 1%, but oil prices crashed over 4%, gold climbed back to 3900. Investors are chasing chips while avoiding commodities, caught in a tough spot.First consider the worst-case scenario: if the "sanctions evasion" label triggers additional scrutiny, I worry that local compliant businesses will also face higher entry barriers.
Netanyahu proposed using cryptocurrency to evade potential banking sanctions, but the Bank of Israel opposes this, and the industry warns it could harm the Web3 ecosystem. I don't see this as a positive adoption: banking services, overseas platform scrutiny, and industry reputation could all come under pressure.
My risk control reminder is: don't just calculate price stop-losses, also include restrictions on funding channels in the risk list.I don't currently consider this short position as following the trend—seeing a short entry doesn't mean seeing a downtrend. Core Trader 90 just opened a short on $LITE with 10x leverage, nominal value about $30,600. This is a new position, and its success or failure is still unknown.
I have three rules for trading trends: First, look at the direction; if the material doesn't provide price movement, you can't use wallet choices as trend confirmation. Second, look at sentiment; if the market is already unanimously bearish, even though this trade follows the sentiment, you must guard against a short squeeze rebound, but currently, there's no sentiment evidence yet. Third, look at the fallback; with 10x leverage, a roughly 10% adverse move could wipe out the initial margin, and actual factors like maintenance margin also affect this, so even if the direction is right, it might not withstand the process.
The trend is the best friend; I prefer to wait for trend confirmation rather than guessing the top based on a single monitor. When encountering such short entry alerts, what do you all use now to judge the trend—moving averages, price structure, or volume? And which specific timeframe do you look at?An $8800 account, watching ZEC and TRX tonight. One looking for a short opportunity, the other waiting for a long opportunity; if the market doesn't cooperate, just sleep. ZEC has been very volatile recently, with active trading. TRX is not as flashy but the market is relatively orderly. I don't like forcing myself to find reasons just to make a trade. Especially at night, staring too long makes even a normal bullish candle seem like it has a story. ZECUSDT | Short again after rebound failure. First, observe around 1240. If it breaks below 1240 and the 15-minute rebound can't hold, consider shorting near 1238. Isolated margin 2x, margin 400U, nominal position 800U. Stop loss at 1270. Close half at 1200, close the rest at 1170. Stop loss risks about 21U, gross profit about 34U if both targets are hit. If it stabilizes above 1270 again, forget about this short. TRXUSDT | Wait for breakout to go long. 0.3180 is the price to watch tonight. If the 15-minute candle closes above it, and the pullback doesn't break it, and the 1-hour trend remains strong, then consider entering. Isolated margin 3x, margin about 267U, nominal position 800U. Entry at 0.3180, stop loss at 0.3090. Close half at 0.3300, close the rest at 0.3400. Stop loss risks about 23U, gross profit about 43U if both targets are hit. The two trades combined will use about 667U margin, total stop loss about 43U, excluding trading fees. Some ask, how can an $8800 account use so little margin? Because when the market turns hostile at night, the accountThe SOX Semiconductor Index is undergoing a real stress test! A sharp pullback in October, market panic continues to release, but AI computing power demand has not disappeared, and the long-term logic of the chip industry has not yet been falsified. Is the short term a risk or an opportunity? When everyone is panicking, what is truly worth paying attention to may be the starting point of the next market rally. 🔥
Do you think SOX will see a strong rebound next, or continue to test the bottom? #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展