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The NEAR proposal to reduce inflation has passed. The House of Stake approved HSP-029, cutting the maximum annual issuance rate from 2.5% down to 1.6%. This is real; the official announcement has already been released. Let's look at the specific data. The cap is lowered to 1.6%, but the distribution ratio remains unchanged: 90% to stakers and 10% to the treasury. The key point is the pace; it won't immediately drop to 1.6%, but will be stretched over a 24-month period. The process is as follows: first, the Security Council reviews the voting results; after approval, there is roughly a 90-day grace period, then validators adopt the protocol upgrade, and each epoch gradually decreases the rate. Only at the 24th month will it officially settle at 1.6%. The official announcement also clearly states that the rules won't change immediately tonight. This operation aims to lower long-term inflation expectations and slow down the rate of new supply. The gradual rate cut over two years is mainly to give the market an adjustment period, avoiding a sudden sharp drop in staking yields that could cause short-term shocks to the validator ecosystem. 0x50c2be4b3958c358e2654c6dabb4feb9e1cc7777 0xe797e34845f5c23b1f578c7c49a101fca4137777 Next, we need to watch whether the Security Council's review goes smoothly, the progress of validator upgrades, and the official quarterly reports to see if the actual issuance volume is truly following the schedule. No decline yet Circle Q3 Earnings Preview: $CRCL Miss Expectations EPS $0.37 (Zacks $0.40) 0.18 Revenue about $788 million 701 million OKX Prophet's threshold is GAAP EPS > 0.37 Positives EPS has beaten expectations for 4 consecutive quarters USDC circulation at quarter-end was 74.58 billion, slightly up from 73.3 billion at the end of June Short-term US Treasury yields rebound, supporting reserve interest income The prediction market gives a 73% probability of beating expectations Risks Core issue: Q3 average USDC supply down about 4%, USDC alone can only support about $720 million in revenue. The remaining gap depends on how much of the $242 million ARC presale is recognized this quarter Channel fees consume nearly 60% of revenue Revenue missed expectations in the first two quarters Binance hack dragged down crypto stocks, Circle froze about 800 million USDC; Mizuho downgraded target price, stock fell 9.3% in one day last Friday to $72.54 My judgment Beat expectations? Slightly leaning No. If ARC is fully recognized, it could significantly beat; otherwise, hard to reach 0.37 Stock price rise? Even if ARC drives a beat, the market may see it as one-time income. More critical are the outlooks for USDC supply and channel costs Just saw "Yesterday Bitcoin spot ETF net outflow of $398.62 million," my first reaction was: Is the money collectively withdrawing again? But reading further, according to Trader T data, BlackRock IBIT had a net outflow of $405.3 million, its largest single-day outflow since June 26; Fidelity FBTC, on the other hand, had a net inflow of $6.68 million, partially offsetting the outflow. My understanding is that this reflects a somewhat negative short-term fund sentiment, but directly saying "institutions are unanimously bearish" is a bit of a leap, not sure if that's correct. The overall net outflow is mainly concentrated in IBIT, while FBTC is moving in the opposite direction; at least this data does not show all products withdrawing simultaneously. Another reason is that net outflow can show the result of fund inflows and outflows on that day, but it doesn't tell me why holders withdrew. If it's just portfolio adjustment, then it has a different implication than a continuous reduction of Bitcoin exposure. This is just my speculation; one should not take any single explanation as fact, nor directly convert it into how much the price will drop next. I've only been in the circle for a year, and I still haven't figured out: when does an abnormal outflow from a single large product become sustained pressure across the entire ETF channel 🤔. I will continue to watch whether the subsequent net outflows persist and spread to more products, and first remind myself not to read one day's data as a long-term conclusion.Today is the US midterm election voting day. The price of crypto actually reflects three Washington issues that seem unrelated to crypto: AI capital expenditure, fiscal deficit, and the debt ceiling. Three outcomes, three paths. If the Democrats fully control Congress, the AI industry will be more tightly regulated; if Congress is split, budget disputes and debt ceiling negotiations will be deadlocked; if the Republicans control both chambers, tax cuts, increased defense spending, and deregulation will continue, at the cost of heavier fiscal deficits and debt pressure. All three paths ultimately funnel into the crypto space through one channel: US dollar liquidity. AI capital expenditure supports US stock valuations, which in turn support risk appetite, and $BTC now moves in sync with the Nasdaq; the deficit and debt ceiling determine how Treasury bonds are issued and where long-term interest rates go, which then determine the strength of the dollar, and high beta assets like $ETH amplify these effects. My judgment is a bit cautious. A Republican win in both chambers is the smoothest short-term scenario, but the smoothness is in risk appetite, not fundamentals; full Democratic control is the hardest on the AI sector, but this pain might actually push some funds toward non-sovereign asset narratives; the hardest to navigate is a split Congress, where deadlock means no conclusion, and risk assets will just oscillate, causing directional money to withdraw first. One detail worth watching: among the key variables mentioned, the debt ceiling points to 2027. This means the direction set tonight could have a pricing window extending beyond next year. The answers given on election night may not hold up beyond a quarter.Tomorrow is the U.S. midterm election, and on Friday there's also the nonfarm payroll report. The market has no shortage of major events this week 📅 Someone has calculated that after the past four midterm elections, BTC has on average dropped between 27% and 72%; currently, BTC is stuck around 78,000, and the market still bets 70-80% on a 0.25% rate hike in December. For uncertain events like elections, would you reduce your position in advance and wait and see? #MidtermElection #Nonfarm #Outlook Not investment advice 💥 Withdrawal outflow of 3.6 billion! The aftermath of the black swan event continues, order book depth halved $BTC $ETH $SOL After Binance withdrawals resumed, a net outflow of 3.64 billion USDT Official compensation covers 95% of damaged assets Market makers hedge by canceling orders, order book depth directly cut in half Spot buy orders gap, price firmly suppressed at 77800 BTC｜77800 hanging by a thread Previous reference 81500 Compensation eases panic, but 78500 has become strong resistance Support extremely fragile If it can't recover 78200 by afternoon close With insufficient liquidity, beware of testing the 75500 defense line ETH｜Retesting 2260 in weak consolidation Previous reference 2450 Double pressure from security incident and institutional withdrawals Lack of large spot capital support Breaking below 2200 may accelerate drop to 2100 SOL｜Lost the 100 mark, tugging near 94 Previous reference 105 Market deleveraging drags down, breaking below 100 On-chain ecosystem weakening simultaneously Support depth declining, chips loosening, rebound likely to retreat easily Summary Compensation for the incident implemented, but tens of billions of funds exiting severely hit the order book BTC stuck at low levels, altcoins support even worse Price and capital still searching for bottom Do you think the 77800 level can hold this afternoon? Market observation only, not investment advice #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ETH rebounding to MA7 is a clear shorting opportunity, $SOL at 91.56 can't even hold 92, what are you still waiting for? ETH bounced from 2246 to MA7 at 2253, this is an obvious shorting point, don't hesitate. The current price 2246.84 is just seven points away from the 7-day moving average, RSI is only 32.2, Bollinger lower band at 2234 is holding, the rebound strength is as weak as if it hasn't eaten. BTC is the same, 76564 is about 300 points below MA7, the whole market is in a slow downtrend, and SOL can't even hold 92, 91.55 is still some distance from MA7 at 92.03, RSI 31.8, very weak. From a technical perspective, all three coins are hugging the Bollinger lower band: ETH at 2234, SOL at 90.72, BTC at 76307. If these levels break, it will accelerate the decline. Funding rate is still positive at 0.01%, indicating bulls are still holding on hard, and this is when the market is most prone to stop hunting longs. Personally, I think the rebound is just an opportunity to enter short positions. Short ETH directly near 2253, and SOL's rebound around 92 is also a shorting point, don't try to guess the bottom. For operations, set stop loss just above MA25: ETH at 2268, SOL at 93, if broken, accept the loss. Below, watch the Bollinger lower band first, if it breaks, chase the drop. Don't talk to me about bottom fishing in this market, RSI is only 31, not yet extremely oversold, weak rebound is the best signal, just hold your short positions and that's it.$BTC 76646 funding rate is still positive, $ETH 2250 bulls haven't given up yet, $ZEC 1131 already dumped, I'm bearish Bitcoin is currently at 76646, down 2% in 24 hours, with a high of 78398 and a low already smashed to 76386. I glanced at the RSI which is only 32.4, hugging the oversold line but not completely flat yet, MA7 and MA25 are both pressing above the price, and the lower Bollinger band at 76322 is right underfoot — frankly, this position is the lifeline between bulls and bears; if it breaks, we directly look at 75000. Let me tell you, what I care about most is not the price, but the funding rate is still positive at 0.0100%, bulls are still paying to hold their positions, which means they haven't given up. If they haven't given up, there's still room to fall, so don't rush to bottom fish. Ethereum at 2250 is also quite delicate, RSI 35.3 is slightly stronger than Bitcoin, but MA7 and MA25 are both turning downwards, and the lower Bollinger band at 2235 is the last waistband; losing it means acceleration. But honestly, ETH bulls can endure more than BTC bulls; the funding rate is still positive, indicating leveraged longs are still stacked and haven't been fully liquidated. My personal view is straightforward: now is not the time to bottom fish, wait until they surrender; the day the funding rate turns negative is the signal for me to consider acting. The worst is ZEC, 1131 down directly -10.8%, RSI dropped to 20.7, it's completely dumped, bulls have already laid down playing dead. But look, its funding rate is still positive, meaning someone is still holding hard. I won't touch this coin for now, waiting for it to truly clear out."'Verified institutions and retail investors,' what I care most about is this participation boundary. Canton plans to launch tokenized common shares, supporting all-weather trading and atomic settlement, but I think that being able to open the market doesn't equal good liquidity; the liquidity after admission is the key.🤖 If I were to write it as a strategy, I would set one rule: if after opening trading, the slippage for orders of the same amount remains consistently high, then 'all-weather' should not get extra credit. My guess is that if the identity threshold limits the scale of participation, then the AMM may not attract enough capital, and extending trading hours might just prolong the period of a thin order book. The advantage of this rule is that it looks at actual transaction costs without chasing concepts; the loophole is that testing only small orders might underestimate the impact of large orders, and only observing the initial launch period might lead to misjudgment. As a quantitative newbie, I still need to supplement the observation window. How would everyone write this condition: what order size to use to test slippage, and how long should continuous observation last to be valid?"The short position strategy given in the early session has hit the first target as expected. The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is the composure to stay calm during trading. The opening surge was weak, volume diverged, and the structural need for a pullback had long been apparent. Going short in line with the trend is simply following the market rhythm. "Those who observe the situation are clear-sighted; those who follow the trend are wise." Trading is essentially a practice of cultivation, not about short-term gains or losses, but about long-term refinement. The rest is left to time. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Will $SUI fund migration become a new demand for SUI or just a short-term parking? Reassessment of cross-chain risks may lead funds to try migrating to other networks, but short-term parking does not constitute ecosystem growth. The logic holds only if SUI's stablecoins, application transactions, and developer activities rise simultaneously. The opposing view is that bridging itself carries risks and migrated funds can be quickly withdrawn; if retention is poor and subsidy dependence is high, I would lower expectations. Compare application participation and fee changes one week after fund inflow to avoid mistaking a one-time migration flow for long-term adoption. For further confirmation, I will separate the impact of news, fund flows, and actual usage for examination; only if at least two of these remain aligned across multiple periods will I adjust the mid-term judgment. If only short-term price or a single indicator changes, maintain caution and wait for subsequent data.+62.9%, this single-day increase is indeed eye-catching, but I prefer to separate “busy matching business” VS “coin holders are bullish.” DefiLlama data shows that DEX trading volume in the past 24 hours was about $8.714 billion, up 4.1% from a week ago, with the top three volumes from Uniswap V4, V3, and Curve. I lean toward the former: this is a positive signal for DEX usage demand, but not yet evidence of price direction. Trading volume counts transactions; speculative entries contribute volume, and position swaps or exits also contribute volume, so you can’t attribute all the busyness to bullish momentum. My guess is, if the new volume generates more fees, then the platform business might benefit more directly than the coin holders. So I would categorize this as “on-chain trading demand heating up,” rather than a “broad price rally forecast.” Seeing this volume surge, do you agree more that DEX business benefits, or do you value its bullish implication for coin prices more? Which side do you choose, and why? $BTC fell 1.57%, yet its funding rate is 2.4 times that of ETH! Are the bulls still holding on? The weaker the market, the more some data become worth watching. As of the morning of November 3 Beijing time, in the OKX perpetual market, BTC dropped 1.57% in the past 24 hours, $ETH fell 1.26%, and $SOL dropped 2.82%. All three brothers are in the red; none managed to stay unscathed. But the most abnormal thing is not the drop, but the funding rate! BTC's third-party 8-hour normalized funding rate reached +0.0240%, while ETH and SOL are only +0.0100%. BTC fell more than ETH, yet its funding rate is 2.4 times higher! Looking at open interest, BTC currently has about $3.7 billion USD OI, ETH about $1.82 billion, and SOL about $381 million. The actual forced liquidations in 24 hours are approximately $3.84 million, $5.04 million, and $1.6 million respectively. BTC has the largest position and highest funding rate; ETH is relatively more resilient but bears a larger forced liquidation amount; SOL has the largest drop and remains part of the weak trend. My judgment: overall bearish, not chasing longs for now. Positive funding rates do not necessarily prove that bulls are crowded, but when prices weaken, a higher positive funding rate is worth caution. If BTC price strengthens again, and coin-margined OI improves in sync with active buying, this judgment will need to be revised. For those bullish on BTC, take the next cycle of the same data to refute me: can you prove that this higher funding rate results in sustained buying rather than leverage pressure?#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 Midterm election window, BTC bottoming cycle continues to compress Looking back at the market after three midterm elections, the bottom intervals were 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days respectively, showing an accelerating rhythm of bottom formation. After each low point started, there was a multiple-fold rally, and the volatility release window is shortening. Volatility is the leading signal of this historical pattern; after the intense volatility during the panic phase converges, a re-pricing of chips will follow. Open the position list, check the stop-loss of BTC contracts, and confirm the volatility range you can bear. $BTC $ETH $SOL Calculating it, missing one asset migration step does not equal saving all access costs. This was my first reaction after reading: I care more about how many existing processes institutions need to change, rather than how advanced "interoperability" sounds. ① Consensys has launched an Ethereum-based sovereign network interoperability solution that supports cross-ledger settlement of securities, currency exchange, and collateral issuance. Assets remain on their native ledgers without needing cross-chain or transfer to a shared ledger. I think the key point is that business collaboration can be discussed without first moving assets together; if it can reduce the transformation of existing systems, then the resistance to adoption by institutions might be lower, which is my speculation. ② Transactions are only visible to relevant parties; the material does not disclose throughput or settlement time. The privacy boundary is clear and meaningful for institutional business, but I would not directly equate "interoperable" with "more efficient." ③ Cross-ledger execution is cryptographically verified by zero-knowledge proofs without requiring additional trusted intermediaries, and the material also does not provide cost data. Less reliance on intermediaries is an architectural change, but whether it saves money still needs to factor in access and operational expenses. My judgment is that this carries more weight for institutions that need to retain their own ledgers, with limited direct impact on ordinary users for now. I would record it as a valuable infrastructure advancement, waiting for actual usage scale and cost accounting, rather than rushing to convert it into a market bullish factor.#CircleQ3USDCGrowth Crcl is actually clear income, US Treasury yield * USDC amount, profit can also be calculated, most of the costs are channel fees $ZEC plunged about 10% in a single day, while XMR showed relative resilience; the key is not that "privacy coins should move in sync." ZEC previously surged rapidly due to expectations of quantum resistance and protocol upgrades, with profit-taking combined with concentrated contract leverage, making it prone to long position liquidations and a cascade during pullbacks; the market also worries about privacy narrative dilution, project execution, and regulatory pressure, which amplifies selling pressure. XMR acts more like a consensus anchor in the privacy sector: its default privacy, decentralization, and censorship resistance attributes are purer. After being delisted from exchanges, its tokens are held more by long-term holders, with short-term speculative leverage relatively restrained. This divergence indicates: sector sentiment can only provide a floor; what truly determines price movement are prior gains, leverage levels, and fundamental certainty. ZEC behaves more like a high-volatility sentiment token, while XMR is more like a defensive privacy asset; the divergence may continue but does not mean the overall privacy sector logic is invalid. The above is market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. The U.S. midterm elections have entered voting day, and the Middle East situation is fluctuating again, putting global assets in a highly sensitive window. $BTC $ETH $SNDK The U.S. stock market is not falling uniformly but showing clear divergence. Last night, the Nasdaq fell 1.07%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.51%, while only the Dow Jones rose 0.41%. Funds continue to be withdrawn from semiconductors, software, and AI infrastructure, moving instead toward consumer and industrial sectors. The market is starting to recalculate AI capital expenditures: the more invested, the harder it is to justify profit returns and financing pressure. On the oil price front, Iran proposed a "two-day plan," and the Supreme Leader authorized the government to advance negotiations, immediately triggering market expectations of easing, with Brent crude oil briefly dropping over 7%. However, Iran later stated that indirect communications have not yet achieved substantive breakthroughs. So do not misinterpret this as a peaceful resolution; it only means negotiations have not collapsed, but an agreement is still far off. Oil prices, inflation expectations, and risk appetite could be pulled again by Middle East news at any time, causing fluctuations in both U.S. stocks and the crypto market. U.S. Treasury yields have fallen back to around 4.9%, indicating that the drop in oil prices has eased inflation pressure, and funds are also moving into the bond market for shelter. However, the rise in bonds and the fall in oil prices have not stopped the adjustment in tech stocks, indicating this round is not a simple macro easing logic but a reordering of capital. Coinbase was downgraded by Morgan Stanley from "neutral" to "underweight," with the target price slashed from $258 directly to $120. The reason is straightforward: weakening crypto trading activity, slower profit recovery, plus industry uncertainty caused by the Binance security incident. If the Democratic Party takes control of Congress, the crypto industry could stillSeeing the headline "Ethereum ETF net outflow of 140 million," many people's first reaction is that it's over, institutions are running away. I checked the details, and I can't cry or laugh: out of the 140 million, 138 million was from just BlackRock. So rather than saying "institutions are withdrawing," it's more accurate to say "BlackRock is withdrawing." One firm's portfolio adjustment and the entire industry's exit are completely different matters. What's more interesting is Morgan Stanley's side, where MSSE had a net inflow of 3.15 million USD yesterday. On one hand, 138 million is leaving, on the other, 3.15 million is coming in, like a vendor clearing stock at a market stall while the neighboring stall just opened. $ETH is currently in this state; the numbers look scary, but when broken down, they're not that frightening, though it's hard to say it's good either.I advise everyone to buy spot, go long with low leverage, and use grid trading; this is sincere advice. But sincerity is like underwear—everyone wears it, but no one knows if the other person is wearing it. However, if I wear it on my head, you can see at first glance that I am sincere. But wearing underwear on your head just makes people think you're crazy, and sincerity is the same. The U.S. midterm elections are voting today. Looking back at previous times, the market dropped before and after each election, and there were other events behind those drops. In 2014, the impact of Mt. Gox's bankruptcy was still ongoing, and later Bitstamp was hacked. Starting from the closing price on election day, Bitcoin's lowest daily closing price 71 days later dropped about 46%, but one year after the election day, it rose about 24%. In 2018, it was already a bear market, and then there was the BCH hard fork and the hash power dispute. Starting from the closing price on election day, Bitcoin's lowest daily closing price 39 days later dropped about 50%, but one year after the election day, it rose about 45%. In 2022, on election day, FTX suspended withdrawals and later filed for bankruptcy. Starting from the closing price on election day, Bitcoin's lowest daily closing price 13 days later dropped about 15%, but one year after the election day, it rose about 92%. So what about this time? If we take [76700] as an example, assuming another 15% drop, it would roughly reach around [65200]. But note, 76700 is just an example price now, not the confirmed closing price on election day. Also, the background of each previous drop was different; history can only be used as a reference and does not guarantee a 15% drop this time. The background event this time is that Binance exchange was attacked. After the attack, Binance has already started phased withdrawal restorations. But whether other exchanges will be attacked later and what kind of black swan events might occur, no one can guarantee. From the market perspective, I think the ultimate target of this drop might be around [72k]. But there is no need to be too pessimistic; 75k and 72k are both levels where I consider adding to spot positions. In my view, this might really be the last chance to buy spot in these four years. The above content is only my personal market analysis and trading ideas record and does not constitute any investment advice. Please control your position size and risk according to your own situation.U.S. retail investors have really gone wild! Leveraged ETF inflows have surged to nearly a two-year high. Is the U.S. stock market bottoming out, or is the bigger crash just beginning? Look at that orange line on the chart. Over the past two years, rolling capital flows in U.S. leveraged ETFs have oscillated between negative $12 billion and positive $8 billion, but suddenly in October, they shot above $15 billion. This is no ordinary bottom-fishing. The craziest is the triple-leveraged semiconductor ETF SOXL, which saw a net inflow of about $7.3 billion in October, setting a single-month record. Many funds rushed in during the relatively high levels of early to mid-October. Retail investors buy more as prices fall, and some even find regular ETFs too slow to rise, going straight for triple leverage. Leveraged ETFs have a daily reset mechanism, making them suitable for short-term trading. In the face of continuous declines or high volatility, the long-term holding losses can be more severe than expected. What's more troublesome is that funds are now highly concentrated in tech stocks and semiconductors. If the market continues to pull back, the volatility of leveraged products will be further amplified, and retail investors' stop-losses and redemptions could intensify market pressure. Adding to this is the policy uncertainty brought by the U.S. midterm elections, making the recent U.S. stock market movements somewhat confusing. Tech giants like Intel and Google have undergone sharp adjustments, and previously hot assets that were chased after have now become the hardest hit by capital outflows. Do you think this leveraged capital frenzy is the last drop before the U.S. stock market bottoms out, or the start of a new round of declines? #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC $HYPE HYPE's recent buyback somewhat seems like paving an exit route for the whales. The project team spent $67 million on buybacks in a single month, yet the token price still dropped 22%. The a16z-related address also transferred 118,000 HYPE tokens to a market maker address. The official side is buying, but the whales are moving out. The buy orders might handle the buyback, but may not withstand the upcoming unlocks. I currently see no reason for a reversal in this market. #HYPE $HYPE 👇Ethereum spot ETF saw a net outflow of $140 million yesterday. It sounds like the whole market is pulling out, but breaking it down, $138 million of that $140 million came from the same source—BlackRock's ETHA. This doesn't look like a market turning bearish, but more like the action of a single institution. ETHA's historical total net inflow is $11.731 billion, and a $138 million outflow in one day is just a little over one percent of its cumulative size. This scale is more like portfolio rebalancing or redemption, not a full exit. On the other hand, Morgan Stanley's MSSE had a single-day net inflow of $3.1511 million, with a historical total net inflow of $48.2405 million. The numbers are small and the directions opposite: old players are reducing, new players are testing the waters; $3.15 million versus $138 million, it can't offset. Mechanically, it's important to distinguish: ETF net outflow is based on subscription and redemption data, which does not equal the spot market selling the same amount. Real selling pressure is seen in secondary market trading volume and premium/discount; looking only at outflow numbers can easily misinterpret redemptions as panic selling. So $ETH is currently in a turnover phase, not a crash. BlackRock withdrawing one percent in a day could be rebalancing or client redemptions; the data alone can't tell. What’s worth watching is the next two to three days: continuous outflows from ETHA would indicate a trend, a single day is just a technical adjustment. $BTC ETF flows can be used as a comparison—if only ETH is withdrawn and not BTC, that’s a product choice, not a bearish view on the entire market.Tuesday, 2026.11.03 U.S. stocks continue to decline, with the weekly chart already showing the fourth consecutive bearish candle. This situation is relatively rare in historical terms. The current Federal Reserve policy expectations and the AI bubble have indeed brought significant shocks to the market. After the 2018 midterm elections, U.S. stocks experienced a decline. The Fed raised interest rates four times that year, and the S&P 500 fell 6.2% for the year, but it still rose 11.7% one year after the election. Due to the bursting of the internet bubble, the S&P 500 dropped 22.1% one year after the 2000 election. On October 30, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 398 million, and Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of 139.7 million. Market Analysis Bitcoin followed the U.S. stock market down last night. Contrary to yesterday’s expectation of a rebound, the U.S. stock market opened high but then declined, forming a large N-shaped pattern. Bitcoin mirrored this pattern, with its rebound failing to break through 79,000. This actually indicates that the market is now completely controlled by the bears. During this period, the strategy should be to sell on rallies or short the market. Wait for the price to drop near 75,000 before preparing to bottom-fish. There may be short-term negative factors around the U.S. midterm elections, but based on the above situation, it is very likely that the period around the election will be a golden opportunity to start bottom-fishing. The index probably has about 3-5% more downside before reaching weekly support levels, which is a good opportunity. Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index: 33 (Fear) $SOPH market makers took advantage of the negative news about chain closure to push the price down, conveniently scooping up all the retail investors' bloodied chips. After dropping more than 60%, a huge green bar suddenly appeared at the bottom, clearly signaling the end of accumulation. Now the spot market is desperately pulling up, while the futures market has negative funding rates. Short sellers are paying interest daily and still holding on hard. At this point, if the spot market pushes up again, the shorts will be forced into a chain of liquidations as fuel. No surprises here, the shakeout is complete, and the main force is cleaning up thoroughly to trigger a short squeeze. #SOPH $SOPH 👇Having been in business for a long time, whenever I hear "record high transaction volume," I always want to ask: how is the input-output ratio of this business? Solana disclosed that in October, the stablecoin card spending on its network reached $141 million, a record high and seven times that of the same period last year. My judgment is that this is a positive signal for payment applications, but it is still a bit short of proving that the business model is profitable. The scale of spending shows that this payment method is being used, but transaction volume does not equal revenue. Without data on customer acquisition and settlement costs, it's impossible to calculate the input-output ratio. If growth depends on subsidies, then the cash flow after removing subsidies is the real test. This is my speculation, not information that has been disclosed. In business, I keep a risk reserve and do not treat all on-paper transaction volume as liquid cash. For business friends, if your store accepts payments via this kind of stablecoin card, what settlement guarantees would you require to be willing to bear the turnover risk? 📊 INSIGHT: Bitcoin’s last three cycle bottoms occurred 13–71 days after U.S. midterm elections. 🇺🇸 With the next midterms on November 3, 2026, late 2026 to early 2027 could be a key window to watch for BTC’s next bottom. History shows a pattern, not a guarantee. $BTC $XAU Oil prices dropped about 7% in one day, yet someone actually increased their long oil positions to about $147 million 😂 As soon as the news about the Iran nuclear talks came out, Brent crude fell sharply from its high, dropping about 7.6% that day, with WTI falling similarly. During this bearish candle, an on-chain address kept adding positions. Brent longs rolled up to about 868,840 contracts, nominally around $91 million. WTI was about 580,960 contracts, nominally around $56.1 million. Both sides were fully leveraged 10x, totaling nominally about $147 million. At that time, the unrealized loss was already about $955,000, and the trader hadn’t exited yet. Brent’s average price was around 105, with liquidation around 86.85. WTI’s average price was about 98, with liquidation around 69.67. The margin was roughly in the $10+ million range. If oil prices kept dropping further, it would be easy for the entire position to be liquidated. While others were unloading risk premiums, this person was betting the premium would come back. This kind of position just makes your palms sweat. For beginners, it’s recommended to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC Recently, the short positions on $ZEC really paid off! A few days ago, I was watching 1400 but it couldn't break through, so I felt it was more comfortable to look for shorts on the rebound. Last night, I caught another wave! But today, it couldn't even hold 1200, dropping directly to around 1120 at the lowest. I thought there would be a rebound, but it hit the take profit point early this morning! Now I feel that the positive news for NU7 has already been largely priced in by funds in advance, and the market sentiment is off. The crypto panic index has dropped to 26, and the black swan event hasn't been fully digested yet. Overnight, US chip stocks were hit again, and ZEC itself has sparked controversy over community development funding. The positive news hasn't disappeared, but the market is clearly re-evaluating the previous surge expectations! Previously, 1400 was repeatedly tested but failed, and now the 1200 support has also been broken. The 4-hour moving average is pressing down again, showing short-term weakness. My current judgment is still bearish, and it may continue to probe lower. For the next rebound, watch the resistance at 1160, 1190—1216. If it can't reclaim these levels, I will continue to view it as weak. Only if it breaks and holds above 1216 with real volume will the short bearish view need to be adjusted! A short squeeze built on a headline, not a trend, is the cleanest test of conviction. When Iran announced talks, crypto responded with a fast, broad bounce—the kind of knee-jerk move that forces leveraged shorts to cover and makes even patient bears question their sizing. The reaction was real, but the cause was thin. The analytical point is not whether the bounce happened. It is why it faded so quickly in the minds of traders who had already positioned short. A negotiation headline changes the XRP is facing increasing regulatory pressure, yet its ETF timeline is being pushed back, which is contradictory. XRP, OKB, and BCH all have ties to traditional finance; today we'll see whose compliance efforts truly take effect. All three carry the "traditional finance/compliance" narrative, but their progress speeds differ drastically. $XRP has strong regulatory credentials, but its ETF timeline is retreating. GraniteShares' 3x leveraged XRP ETF effective date has been postponed to November 30; Ripple submitted a letter to the SEC on October 20 requesting clarification on escrow release rules, hinting that after the CLARITY Act is implemented, more monthly unlocked XRP might remain in the market to provide liquidity for RLUSD. The OCC trust license plus FSOC systemic designation are long-term positives. XRP has strong company credentials but weaker token credentials; if it doesn't hold 1.25, watch 1.10. $OKB is the least eventful in this group, purely defensive. It has no regulatory catalysts nor supply shocks; when trouble hit nearby, it was unaffected and even benefited from spillover net inflows. With no pending events, this kind of stability actually shows value—holding it as a defensive asset is more practical than chasing highs. $BTC's institutional channels are being built but the slowest. It has CME futures, Grayscale's BCHG-to-spot ETF S-3 filing is still in progress; institutional entry points are being laid out one by one but have the least flexibility. BCH is the "institutional slow lane"; don't expect it to lead, it's grinding at 284 waiting for channels. Regulatory credentials and capital credentials are not the same thing; XRP is demonstrating this to you this week.$TRUST Everyone else is running, but it dares to pull against the trend—either a villain or a thief! 【Hardcore Review of This "Bull Trap"】: Looking at the 1-hour chart, this asset has been forcefully pulled up from the 0.0479 bottom and is now stuck oscillating at 0.0537, never daring to touch the previous high of 0.0577. The MACD red bars above zero have clearly shortened, and volume can't keep up—purely a "spent force". Looking at the second chart data, the long-short ratio is 1.21, bulls account for 54%, and retail sentiment isn't extremely frenzied, indicating the main players are pumping this small amount just to create a pretty K-line before the election to attract stubborn retail investors to take the bag. 【Macro Logic】: The overall financial sector is fleeing to safety, and Bitcoin is slowly declining. This kind of altcoin pumping against the trend is definitely a "pump and dump" scheme. 【My Advice】: Shorting is fine, but never chase shorts at market price! The manipulative whales might spike it up again to clean out positions. Wait until it shows weakness on the rally (for example, near 0.055) or breaks below the MA20 support (0.0524), then short with the trend on the right side. Set your stop loss properly—don’t let this last frenzy take us down.Conclusion first: $CRO has dropped 27% in the past 30 days (0.0683→0.0498), while its first monthly buyback just completed only destroyed 1.79 million tokens, about $89,000, accounting for 0.0035% of the circulating supply. Three numbers deserve more attention. 1. Dilution. CoinGecko shows a total supply of 99.02 billion tokens, with 50.76 billion in circulation, and another 48.26 billion not yet circulating, valued at about $2.4 billion at the current price, almost equal to the current market cap of $2.53 billion. The 228 million tokens burned in the October vote (about $11.35 million) is just a drop in the bucket. 2. Liquidity is shrinking. OKX perpetual 30-day trading volume is $34.23 million, with the last 7 days at $5.18 million, the previous 7 days at $6.38 million, and the 7 days before that at $7.23 million; spot volume for the same periods is 5.29→3.94→3.92 million. 3. Funding rates just turned positive: on 11-02 it was -0.0115%/8h, now +0.01%/8h. Hong Kong is changing tables: Bloomberg reported on 11-02 that Crypto.com will shut down its Hong Kong retail app on February 1 next year, with license review ongoing; on the same day Standard Chartered launched tokenized deposits with 24/7 settlement; HSBC's RedCoin covers 3.3 million PayMe users. Retail entry is retreating, banks are moving deposits on-chain. Where is the money going?Many people have asked me these past two days: now that exchanges have issued proof of reserves, does that mean they are safe? My view is that it’s useful, but don’t overthink it. Zero-knowledge proof of reserves allows you to verify for yourself: at the moment of the snapshot, your balance was included, and there is a 1:1 backing of assets. This time it covers 10 coins including BTC, ETH, USDT, and more; the next snapshot will add more coins. There are two things it can’t do. First, it only covers that moment; it can’t control how assets change the next day. Second, it mainly proves assets exist, but the proof is weaker regarding whether liabilities are fully accounted for. So my own approach is simple: keep frequently used funds on exchanges, and store long-term coins in my own wallet. There’s also a more urgent issue. These days with slow withdrawals, there are many scammers impersonating customer service saying they can "speed up withdrawals" or "offer compensation." Remember, legitimate platforms will never charge unlocking fees or ask you to sign authorizations. Will you verify your balance yourself, or find it too troublesome to check? (Personal opinion, not investment advice) #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #BTC #ProofOfReservesTo pour some cold water first, institutional participation in maintaining a chain and institutions moving assets onto that chain are two different things. Hash Global has become the operator of the ValueChain validator node, and both parties will also explore the introduction and tokenization of RWA, index compilation and on-chain issuance, and on-chain wealth management cooperation. I am cautious: the news carries weight, but if it is interpreted as institutional funds already entering, that would be mistaking a cooperation intention for a business outcome prematurely. I am stuck on two points. First, node operation belongs to network infrastructure and cannot directly prove the establishment of asset issuance and wealth management demand; if the market infers rapid growth of on-chain business based on this, it skips asset screening, product design, and user acceptance stages. Second, the combination of investment research and asset management capabilities with on-chain research, issuance, and trading systems indicates complementary space between the parties, but it does not mean ordinary users are naturally willing to use it. My judgment is that this news helps the narrative of institutional cooperation more directly than it proves actual demand. Of course, the bulls might also be right; node cooperation can be an entry point for deeper business cooperation. I do not deny opportunities just because I am used to focusing on risks. If clear asset rights explanations, executable subscription and redemption arrangements, and real usage data appear later, I will raise my evaluation of this cooperation. For now, I will keep "who participates" and "how much demand is brought" accounted for separately, and not prematurely celebrate a business still in exploration.#PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 $PLTR announced its Q3 2026 earnings report, with revenue of $2.313 billion, a year-over-year increase of 96%, far exceeding the market expectation of $2.18 billion. U.S. commercial business revenue was $984 million, up 148% year-over-year, surpassing U.S. government business for the first time. Adjusted EPS was $0.44, also higher than expected. The company also raised its full-year revenue guidance to about $8.53 billion, expecting Q4 revenue to reach up to $2.653 billion. Despite such strong earnings, the stock price fell nearly 3% in after-hours trading. I believe the main issues are overly high market expectations and a cooling in order growth. Q3 total contract value (TCV) grew only 6% year-over-year, with U.S. commercial contract value up 11%, a significant slowdown compared to the over 153% growth in the previous quarter. Revenue is growing rapidly, but new orders have not kept pace, naturally causing the market to worry about the sustainability of growth in the coming quarters. Palantir's profitability is also quite outstanding, with an adjusted free cash flow margin of 53%, indicating it is not just relying on burning cash to drive growth. I remain moderately positive on $PLTR in the medium to long term; enterprise AI deployment is indeed accelerating, but in the short term, the stock price is unlikely to continue rising based solely on a strong earnings report. Valuation has already priced in a lot of growth expectations in advance. The key focus going forward is whether commercial orders can accelerate again. If order growth keeps pace with revenue, the stock price still has room to rise. If the slowdown continues, even with earnings beating expectations, valuation may face a correction.IBIT had a single-day net outflow of $405 million, which surprisingly exceeds the net outflow of the entire Bitcoin spot ETF. What concerns me is this discrepancy: the outflow is concentrated in one product, which is a different risk structure compared to a broad-based retreat. In the material, Fidelity's FBTC still shows a net inflow, but it is insufficient to reverse the overall net outflow. My judgment is cautious: this is a signal of pressure on the capital side, but not enough to support the narrative of "institutional consensus bearishness." The net figure is the result of offsetting funds moving in different directions; based on this table alone, it is unclear whether this is portfolio rebalancing, risk reduction, or a longer-term exit. Directly turning the cause into a story, I think, risks overestimating one's win rate. According to my speculation, if subsequent outflows spread to more products, then the explanation of weakening demand gains more weight. Betting against the trend for a rebound looks tempting in terms of odds, but the expectation may not be worthwhile. If the outflow remains concentrated in IBIT and other products continue to absorb funds, then treating it as a channel-wide hemorrhage might be overly pessimistic. I prefer to wait until the condition of "whether the outflow has spread" becomes clear. The cost is possibly missing a period of volatility; the benefit is bearing less risk from an unverified judgment. No matter how attractive the odds are, you must first understand exactly which scenario you are betting on.Calculating it, $8.714 billion represents a 4.1% increase compared to a week ago, which in absolute terms is only about $343 million more. What concerns me more is this difference: the significance of this information to me is that short-term activity has picked up, but it’s not enough for me to conclude that on-chain demand has stepped up to a new level. ① A 4.1% increase compared to a week ago is my first benchmark when looking at this set of DefiLlama data. It’s not far from the volume a week ago, so I separate “volume surge” from “sustained expansion” and don’t use one term to replace the other. ② A 62.9% week-on-week increase is indeed eye-catching. Quantifying it from another angle, this growth corresponds to a lower base from the previous day; my understanding is that the rebound is large, but to judge whether demand is continuously heating up, we need to see if it can be maintained going forward. ③ About $8.714 billion was traded in the past 24 hours, which counts the transaction amount. This indicates active trading demand but doesn’t directly answer how many new users have come in, nor can it distinguish how much is contributed by speculation versus position switching. Don’t automatically equate transaction amount with popularity. I usually like to do a quick reality check on excitement: this data is substantial, but the weight mainly lies in short-term trading demand, not proof of long-term growth. If the trading volume can be maintained next, then I will raise my evaluation of sustainability. For now, my reminder to myself is to first see how long the volume holds, and not rush to write a story based on a single increase.ZEC dropped nearly 10%, which is the number I care about the most after reviewing. First, consider the worst-case scenario: if the downtrend continues, will the paper loss exceed the amount I can tolerate? This news also mentioned that before the election, chip stocks deepened their decline, Bitcoin fell, and the Nasdaq entered a correction zone, dragging down Asian stock markets. I have done risk control, and when I see such a drop, my biggest fear is mistaking "already dropped a lot" as the risk being fully released. ⚠️ My judgment is that for those with weak drawdown tolerance, this is more important than guessing the election outcome. First, a single-day drop does not represent the upper limit of subsequent losses; second, if volatility continues to increase, the preset stop-loss price may also deviate from the actual transaction price. This is my risk analysis, not a conclusion from the report. A reminder for ordinary people: when assessing the risk of a single trade, include possible slippage in the tolerable loss, not just the ideal execution price. My rule for myself is to first calculate the bad debt clearly before discussing how good the judgment is.$ORCL I've always thought that an old company like Oracle wouldn't fall too far. Today the token dropped from 133.31 to 118.46, closing at 119.28, down 10.3% in one day. It doesn't hurt to be proven wrong, what hurts is that I can't figure out why it fell so sharply. After checking around, two news flashes came out on the same day with opposing views: on one side, an asset management giant calls AI a bubble, on the other, an investment bank executive says the trillion-dollar financing demand still exists. Changxin Technology fell 5% intraday, South Korea's KOSPI dropped 4%. This is a global sell-off, not just one company's issue. The token market is even more interesting. 153,000 contracts traded in 24 hours, with only $3.59 million in open interest, and the fee rate is simply zero; neither bulls nor bears want to pay first. This kind of market can't give a direction. To really see, you have to wait for the stock to open, not guess on this thin market. I didn't make a move this time, just watching. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ No specific borrowing limit was written, which is what I care about most. In the futures market, authorizing the trading desk is one thing, but how large the allowed exposure can be is another. My old habit is to look for the final gate in the rules first. The new Ethena framework allows the trading team to approve borrowers of USDe-supported assets, with committee oversight retained, but it is still unconfirmed whether the authority has been used. Unlike traditional commodity futures, this involves stablecoin-supported assets. I judge that for holders, limit constraints are more important than speeding up approvals, and committee oversight cannot be directly treated as a borrowing limit. What I worry about is not the borrowing itself, but that the risk boundaries are not clear enough. If borrowing is concentrated among a few counterparties, then asset recovery may rely more on their repayment ability, which is my speculation. Are there friends who have also come from traditional markets? When encountering this kind of authorization, do you value the committee’s gatekeeping more, or the explicit borrowing limit in black and white?It's how well the company can position itself for the next phase of technology, particularly AI. Apple still has an enormous ecosystem, pricing power and customer loyalty. But its AI execution has faced scrutiny while competitors push aggressively into the space. That gap between strong fundamentals and future growth expectations is where valuation pressure comes from. In this market, investors are paying a premium for tomorrow's earnings, not just yesterday's results.Many people still think that war benefits safe-haven assets and harms risk assets. The market over the past few years has long torn apart this textbook notion. The real transmission chain is: geopolitical tension leads to rising oil prices, inflation sticks, interest rate cuts are postponed, and all risk assets get hit together. So the enemy of war has never been "risk appetite," but rather "interest rates." Now the process has reversed: as expectations around Iran ease, Brent crude fell 7.6% inBelow are three core scenarios focusing on what everyone cares about most: U.S. stocks (NVIDIA, storage, semiconductors), U.S. Treasury bonds, and the crypto space, conducting trade simulations: Current mainstream baseline expectation: high probability of a "divided Congress," which is the scenario the market has mostly priced in advance; Scenario 1: Divided Congress One party controls the Senate, the other controls the House of Representatives. U.S. stocks / computing power, semiconductors: generally positive. U.S. Treasury bonds: fiscal disorderly expansion is constrained, long-term yields tend to decline, bond prices strengthen; however, each debt ceiling negotiation phaseally triggers risk-off shocks. Crypto space: probability of heavy regulatory crackdown decreases. Trading characteristics: if this is the final outcome, it’s easy to see a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" pattern, with gains realized and then pulled back. Scenario 2: Republicans sweep both chambers Republicans control both the Senate and the House. U.S. stocks / computing power, semiconductors: short-term positive. High-valuation leveraged names like AI, HBM, SOXL will rise first, then be suppressed by interest rate expectations, with significantly increased volatility. U.S. Treasury bonds: negative. The market worries about large-scale fiscal expansion, long-term bond yields rise, bonds fall. Crypto space: Republicans are generally more crypto-friendly. Trading characteristics: this is a "strong expectation divergence" market, with very sharp volatility at the open once it occurs. Scenario 3: Democrats take both chambers (Blue Wave) U.S. stocks / computing power, semiconductors: negative. U.S. Treasury bonds: fiscal expansion is limited, long-term rates are more likely to decline$CL If the global economy weakens and demand declines, then what is the reason for oil prices to rise? Companies plan to reduce production and demand collapses. I don't see how crude oil can go up. Look at the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic. The stock market will continue to fall.First, a straightforward report: The three long positions from the last round are still open. TRX started at 0.3204 and is still showing a floating profit; XRP and LINK each have a floating loss of less than half a percent. None of the three positions have hit their take-profit or stop-loss points. The direction remains unchanged, and the numbers are right here. The real ugly change is on the buying side. U.S. spot Bitcoin products have seen net outflows for four consecutive trading days, with over $1.3 billion withdrawn in those four days; Ethereum products have had net outflows for six consecutive days, having just set the record for the largest monthly outflow for this product last month. This is not a price drop issue; it’s the absence of expected buying demand. But the market also sent another figure: remember this—futures markets have accumulated about 29,200 BTC short positions within 24 hours, with a nominal value of $2.2 billion, and short trading volume has surged to $22 billion. Institutions are withdrawing, shorts are piling up, which is like putting both the spark and the fuel on the same table—whoever collapses first becomes the fuel. What I worry about is never whether it will fall again. What I worry about is those still adding shorts at this level; they are not betting on price but on others liquidating first. Such positions, once liquidity returns, will be pushed to buy back by their own stop-losses. Historical reference: after the crash in November 2022, the first rebound was all short covering; spot buying came later; the same happened in March 2020, where the first to profit were those catching the falling knife. What’s different this time is that there is no second crash queued up—the $6.3 billion withdrawn was absorbed by the balance sheet.I've reviewed this capital flow twice, and the more I look, the more off it feels. ① Let's start with BTC💰 Contracts withdrew $194 million, and spot also saw a net outflow of $76.36 million, both moving out together. This isn't just simple deleveraging; even spot positions are being reduced. ② ETH looks even worse Contracts outflowed $95.69 million, spot outflowed $114 million, with spot outflow exceeding contracts. Leverage is withdrawing, and real money is pulling out too. Among the three major mainstreams, its structure is the weakest. ③ SOL is the only one with some light Contracts outflowed $79.49 million, but spot had a slight net inflow of $8.84 million, indicating some are buying at low levels. But let me pour cold water first: $8.84 million against nearly $80 million in contract outflows is just a drop in the bucket, a partial absorption, still far from a strong reversal. The afternoon market also matches this: in one hour, all four coins' positions retreated, volume increased, but positions didn't keep up. ZEC turnover was also lively, but positions still declined, just like the mainstreams; the whole market is pulling back. There are quite a few variables in the news tonight: at 23:00 there’s the JOLTS job openings report, expected between 7.10 million and 7.22 million; today is the US midterm election voting day, with results only coming out Wednesday morning; the second phase of a certain altcoin's midday rollout has started, with nine networks releasing assets one by one, while those not listed remain closed. My view is simple: for a rebound to hold, I’m watching two signals first — spot outflows narrow, followed by contract outflows narrowing. Until both happen, I won’t chase the rally. What do you think, which side will see inflows first?🤔Iran’s authorization for peace talks matters, but it does not yet change the market’s operating constraint: Hormuz reopening is still tied to US relief from blockades and sanctions. Qatar’s three-day confidence-building proposal could test intent, while disrupted shipping and high freight costs keep the oil backdrop tight. A compromise must move from permission to terms. #IranAuthorizesTalks Can the $TON user entry advantage be converted into on-chain retention for TON? After risk events, funds pay more attention to verifiable real users and asset security. TON's ecosystem narrative must be realized through usage data. If application retention, payment, and on-chain settlement all grow simultaneously, the entry advantage can expand network effects. The downside is that traffic imported from a single platform also brings concentration risk; if user activity cannot be retained, ecosystem enthusiasm easily cools down. It is necessary to confirm that new users will continue to trade or pay after the event ends; registration numbers cannot replace sustained activity. For further confirmation, I will separately examine the impact of news, capital flow, and real usage; only if at least two of these maintain the same trend across multiple periods will I adjust the mid-term judgment. If only short-term price or a single indicator changes, I will remain cautious and wait for subsequent data.#US Midterm Elections Are Approaching, Which Results Are Worth Watching?🇺🇸 Why does crypto care about midterms that don't pick a President? Because Ballot Box → Capitol → Market Trend. Crypto PACs spent $134M in 2024 (+210% vs 2022). Fairshake, Protect Progress, Defend American Jobs — all pushing for regulatory clarity. History: Crypto avg +72% in 6 months after 2018 midterms, +38% after 2022. Post-midterm year = historically most bullish for risk assets. Clarity Act + stablecoin bills hinge on this. Will history repeat? #USMidterms
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