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$DOGE From the contract position data, the 4-hour level long-short ratio of DOGE has reached 4.9, with the bulls holding an absolute numerical advantage, and a large number of traders in the market choosing to go long.
Interestingly, the extremely high long positions have not driven the price into a strong upward trend; the overall market trend remains weak, forming a very obvious divergence. Many bulls are crowded together, with many holding on with hope, stubbornly maintaining their positions, hoping the market will suddenly produce a big bullish candle to break even and profit.
This extremely one-sided position structure itself harbors considerable hidden risks. When the bulls are highly crowded, the market faces the problem of lacking incremental counterparties to continue pushing upward. The bears do not even need to actively dump large amounts; as long as the price dips slightly, it will continuously trigger stop-loss orders set by the bulls. After a large number of stop-loss orders are consecutively triggered, it is easy to form a stampede among the bulls, quickly breaking key support levels and triggering a chain liquidation event.
For contract products, extreme long-short sentiment often signals a market turning point. When everyone unanimously goes long, the resistance to further pushing the market up increases, making it easier to trigger a shakeout to digest this clustered long position capital. Traders need to be cautious of this liquidity risk, avoid blindly following the crowd to go long, implement proper risk control, and set reasonable stop-loss orders to avoid suffering large losses in concentrated liquidation events.Tonight's judgment is confirmed again: $BTC short positions are set above 78000, as expected.
The core trend this week is downward, so my approach has always been that any rebound is a shorting opportunity.
This strategy does not aim to capture every big profit segment but focuses on avoiding heavy positions and controlling risk personally.
Looking at the market, gold XAU has sharply retraced, and US stocks are under pressure simultaneously, indicating a systemic risk appetite contraction. Under this major trend, crypto assets are unlikely to break away and form an independent rally.
Federal Reserve officials have hawkish statements, and there is still room for debate on a December rate hike, so macro pressure continues. Maintain a bearish outlook with a target of 72000. $ETH #美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 In this round of decline, institutions are not the main players, but their actions carry the most information. Because retail investors can bet on sentiment, institutional subscriptions and redemptions follow a process—slow but real. Looking at capital flows is not about direction, but about the nature of redemptions.
For $BTC, on the first full trading day after the event, ETFs had a net outflow of 643 million, the largest single-day outflow since the end of June, with IBIT alone withdrawing 234 million. But looking at the base: cumulative net inflow is still 57.4 billion, with net assets of 103.2 billion. This is deleveraging, not liquidation.
$ETH is worse, with net outflows for five consecutive days, 431 million withdrawn in a week, and 1.61 billion outflow in the entire October. Institutions clearly have less patience for ETH.
$SOL ETFs were originally small in scale, also with five consecutive days of outflows, only two days of net inflows in the whole month, and the cold start of the new product was directly interrupted.
The ETF story is not over, but the pace was forcibly stopped by this event.#PalantirQ3Valuation An annualized funding rate of about 11% concerns me more than breaking an integer price level. Let's consider the worst-case scenario first: if you are long with leverage, and the price continues to drop while the positive funding rate persists, then unrealized losses and holding costs could together consume your margin, potentially triggering a liquidation in severe cases. ETH has broken the price level this time, but the price movement over the past day is still positive, so this cannot be taken as direct evidence of a one-sided decline.
I believe that for leveraged longs, holding costs should be calculated more carefully than integer price levels. ⚠️ There are two risks here: under a positive funding rate, longs have to pay even while waiting for a rebound; the annualized rate is just a conversion of the current rate and does not represent fixed future costs. This is my risk analysis, not a prediction of future price movements.
My reminder to myself is: when calculating the maximum tolerable loss per trade, don't just consider the stop-loss price; also budget for funding fees and slippage. A stop-loss is a constraint, not a guarantee of execution—don't mistake the ability to withstand on paper for actually being able to hold through.#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 以前咱们币圈在华盛顿面前，那是出了名的“软柿子”，谁都能来捏两下。但现在不一样了，兄弟们，这回咱们是真金白银砸下去，直接去跟老美政客玩“权力的游戏”了！ 马上就是美国的中期选举了，众议院435个席位全部改选，参议院也要换35个席位。这可不是换几个人那么简单，谁拿下了国会的控制权，谁就掌握了未来几年美国立法和财政的生杀大权。最炸裂的消息是啥？咱们加密行业这回雄起了，直接通过政治行动委员会砸了大概2.33亿美元进去，就为了把那些支持加密货币的政客给抬进国会。不过，地缘政治上也有个雷，有消息说以色列总理在暗中催促特朗普，等选举一结束就去打击伊朗。 小马哥的个人看法是：这就叫“打不过就加入”，用魔法打败魔法。 以前SEC天天追着咱们屁股后面罚钱、定性证券，咱们只能被动挨打。现在好了，币圈的大佬们终于想明白了，与其天天被裁判吹黑哨，不如自己花钱去当赞助商、去选个对咱们有利的裁判。这2.33亿美元砸下去，绝对不是做慈善，这是在给自己买“护身符”。只要国会里多几个懂Web3、支持加密法案的议员，未来那些奇葩的监管阻力就会小得多。不过，中东那个潜在The election is tomorrow! Stop guessing blindly; the whales' "trump cards" have long been written on the chain.
Lords, tomorrow is the midterm election, followed closely by the non-farm payroll on Friday. Retail investors are sweating over the candlestick charts, while whales are doing three things:
First, "ducking" before the event. In the 24 hours before the FOMC decision, whales reduced their holdings by 8,162 BTC (about $664 million) in one go. Data shows that whenever there’s an election, CPI, or non-farm payroll, whales’ default move is to reduce exposure and increase stablecoin allocation before the event, never betting on direction.
Second, not betting on direction but "collecting rent." A certain whale built a $650 million short portfolio that looks bearish on the surface but is actually playing funding rate arbitrage, earning $74 million in 7 days passively. Retail investors get liquidated on spikes, while whales earn interest in derivatives.
Third, acting separately after the event. After the non-farm payroll release, some whales chasing the ETH rally stopped losses and lost $10.67 million; meanwhile, large funds quietly accumulated 41,025 BTC in the ten days before the election. Whales chasing rallies die in the short term; whales accumulating survive in the long term.
So, lords, whales have only one rule: unload risk before major events land, then pick up chips afterward. If you can’t handle a $650 million arbitrage pot, at least don’t stick your neck out as a target when whales are "ducking." In the past couple of days, rather than watching who is bottom-fishing, I’m more focused on tracking the hackers’ addresses.
What can be seen on-chain: some of the stolen tokens have already been swapped for ETH, with a transfer of 17,260 ETH to a new address. Binance said about $3 billion of the involved assets have been frozen on-chain.
Swapping to ETH is a smart move. Stablecoin issuers can directly freeze tokens, but ETH doesn’t have that feature. So swapping reduces the risk of being directly frozen.
But a transfer doesn’t equal a sell-off, so we need to keep monitoring.
Going forward, I’ll watch whether the address continues splitting, whether it enters exchange channels, and if there’s a reaction in the ETH order book after large transfers—checking if the timing and amounts match. After Bybit was hacked last year, ETH was split for a long time before gradually entering channels. Let’s wait and see how the pace goes this time.I saw the integer level being broken down, and my first reaction was not to guess the bottom but to look at risk appetite and leverage costs. Macro liquidity determines whether funds are willing to take risks; individual price levels act more like amplifiers of sentiment and cannot be taken alone as a verdict on the trend.
This time it was $ETH breaking below $2,300, currently at $2,294, but still up 1.22% in 24 hours. The publicly available perpetual market data from Hyperliquid cited shows a 24-hour trading volume of about $382 million, a funding rate of 0.0013% per hour, annualized about 11%, and an open interest of about $2.251 billion. This is just a contract slice from a single platform, not the entire market's capital flow.
My judgment is that short-term sentiment is bearish, but directly inferring a trend reversal is a bit hasty. Breaking the integer level and rising in 24 hours are not contradictory; they reflect different observation windows. A positive funding rate means longs are still paying to hold positions but does not prove that large funds are bottom-fishing.
In my speculation, if macro liquidity tightens, risk appetite falls, and price is under pressure while open interest does not decrease, then leverage costs may amplify the pressure on longs. Conversely, if open interest falls and funding rates cool down, it may be digesting leverage, so we should not just focus on the break to call danger.
I prefer to first look at the capital environment, then the gain or loss of the level. Facing this break, which macro factor is everyone most concerned about now: a stronger dollar, interest rate expectations, or overall risk appetite? $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
Bitcoin Market Today: The rebound is a “self-rescue,” not a “reversal”
· Midterm Elections: Expectations for a Democratic “blue wave” are heating up, which may bring regulatory pressure, making market sentiment cautious.
Combining market performance: BTC fluctuated between 77,600–78,900 today. The core driver of this rebound is Binance resuming withdrawals, alleviating liquidity panic caused by last week's hacking incident. But note several details:
① The Fear and Greed Index remains in the fear zone at 34–37.
② The price is still below SMA20 (around 80,900) and SMA50 (around 81,900), with MACD showing a bearish alignment.
③ The options market shows a rare inverse spread, with near-month contract prices lower than spot, indicating short-term hedging demand exceeds speculative long demand.Spot is continuing to be supported, and contract funds are also starting to flow back
Just finished reviewing the latest capital flows; BTC, ETH, and ZEC all show synchronized net inflows in both spot and contracts, but the intensity varies significantly.
BTC's net contract inflow in the past 24 hours is $170 million, with spot net inflow at $66.5612 million. Both leveraged funds and real buying are returning simultaneously, making it currently the most stable to hold. However, looking at the week-long data, BTC contracts still show a net outflow of $2.603 billion, indicating that short-term sentiment is recovering, but mid-term funds have not fully shifted yet.
ETH's net contract inflow in the past 24 hours is $54.4817 million, with spot net inflow at $11.5629 million, also warming up following BTC, but the strength is noticeably weaker. It currently looks more like previously withdrawn funds are replenishing positions, and it cannot yet be defined as a strong accumulation.
ZEC's capital structure is relatively independent; 24-hour contract net inflow is $13.9143 million, spot net inflow is $19.2928 million; spot still shows a net inflow of $43.5742 million over the week, indicating that the support is not solely driven by leveraged funds, but spot side also has backing.
Currently, BTC is responsible for stabilizing the market, ETH continues to follow, and ZEC maintains independent strength. In the short term, a rebound continuation can be expected, but weekly and 30-day capital data remain weak, so it is still too early to talk about a full reversal.$SUI (Sui)
SUI HAS TECHNOLOGY MOMENTUM, BUT SUPPLY PRESSURE MATTERS!
$SUI is trading around $0.90, with recent weekly weakness. Its expanding integrations and AI-agent demonstrations provide interesting ecosystem developments. However, the scheduled November token unlock deserves attention because additional circulating supply can influence market liquidity and sentiment.
#Sui #SUI #Layer1 #CryptoResearch #OKXOrbit$PONS $PONS has dropped from 0.78 to around 0.24, and many people have started asking "Is it a good time to buy?" Here's the conclusion: it is not a token that has "fallen enough"; it is a token whose "story is still there, but the flywheel is stuck."
Pons is the launchpad on Robinhood Chain. $PONS operates through protocol fee buyback and burn, with 80% of revenue going into the buyback pool. The model itself is sound — the more tokens issued → the more fees → the more buybacks → the more burns, the logic chain is complete.
The problem lies in the starting point of "the more tokens issued." Pons' graduation rate has always been a major weakness; many new tokens fail to complete the curve and die halfway. Once token issuance shrinks, the fuel for buybacks is cut off. The community has previously questioned the timeliness of buybacks and the relatively low burn rate. Founder Ozzy admitted in early October that the burn rate had not yet been adjusted, and the Claim process is not fully decentralized.
Currently at $0.24, with a market cap of 164 million, and 24h trading volume of 21.88 million — liquidity is still there.
So this is not to fud you, but to remind you of one thing: the bullish logic of PONS depends on the return of token issuance enthusiasm on Robinhood Chain. Buyback and burn are the result, not the cause. Instead of focusing on burn data to buy the dip, it's better to watch daily token issuance and graduation rate. If the flywheel spins, it is a deflationary machine; if the flywheel is stuck, it is a shell with a story but insufficient fuel.My schedule this week is packed with earnings reports 👇
On the morning of 11/3, I'll first look at Apple and Palantir.
Palantir set its own Q3 revenue guidance at $2.16 billion, with a 93% growth last quarter. The valuation is already so high; I want to see if it can hold up this time.
On the morning of 11/4, the company I'm most eager to watch is AMD, which guided Q3 revenue at about $13 billion (with a $300 million margin). Last week, cloud providers spent so much money; this is the first time to verify demand from the chip seller's side. On the same day, there are also SMCI and Arista.
From 11/4 to 11/5, it's Circle, Arm, and Qualcomm's turn. Honestly, Circle is the one I care about most. I work on-chain myself and really want to see if the stablecoin issuer's revenue can convince Wall Street.
On the evening of 11/6, there is also the US October nonfarm payroll report.
Last week, the free cash flow of cloud providers already shocked the market. This week, I will focus on one thing: whether the chip sellers can pull the sentiment back.
Are you betting on AMD to beat expectations, or will the valuation continue to be cut?
#AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 ZEC rebounded more than 5% intraday from the low point, with whales chasing the rally by buying about $23 million. Is it moving again?
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？
The short-term rebound has volume and logic but is far from the "takeoff again" stage; it's more of an oversold recovery plus event-driven rather than a trend reversal.
1️⃣ Price-wise, it rose from the low to the 1270-1280 range, with a significant intraday recovery and outperformance against BTC in 24h, indicating funds are accumulating at low levels.
2️⃣ Whales chased longs over $23 million, combined with Lookonchain's previous report of spot + low-leverage long positions, showing some smart money is actively positioning rather than pure retail sentiment.
3️⃣ Fundamentally, the privacy narrative has heated up again after the hacker incident, with increased demand for "verifiable privacy"; the NU7 upgrade is approaching; meanwhile, ZEC-related ETFs saw net inflows last week, indicating marginal funds are indeed flowing in.
But looking deeper, risks remain.
Overall market fear sentiment hasn't dissipated; macro variables like mid-term elections and employment data persist. Although ZEC's market cap has returned to the top ten, leverage positions are concentrated. Once macro weakens or short covering ends, rapid pullbacks are likely. Whale chasing is a double-edged sword itself, as adding positions at highs increases volatility.
Trading advice:
You can lightly and gradually monitor the 1250-1280 support zone for effectiveness, consider adding positions after breaking previous highs;
Strictly set stop-loss below the low point to avoid chasing highs.
Position size should be controlled within 5% of total funds, prioritizing observation of ETF flows and NU7 rollout pace. $ZEC $BEAT is really surging aggressively, not dropping at all. It can't go up nor down, is it brewing a big move? Manipulators.
Near support: 0.102–0.105
Strong support: 0.095–0.100
Near resistance: 0.112–0.115
Strong resistance: 0.120–0.130
OKX BEAT long-short ratio
Retail investors: ↑ 2.19 → Bullish
Number of large holders: ↓ 1.58 → Bullish
Large holders' positions: ↓ 0.82 → Bearish
Main force sentiment: Extremely bearish
The structure shows a typical divergence of “more people bullish, positions bearish, main force extremely bearish.”
Retail and large holder numbers lean bullish, but large holders' real positions lean bearish, and the main force is extremely bearish. Historically, this structure tends to lead to "bull trap followed by a dump" or a high-level oscillation then decline, so caution is highly advised.
Around November 1, about 17.6–22M BEAT (about 5–6% of total circulation, valued around $1.8–2M) will unlock, involving Community, Advisors & Angels, Foundation, Team, etc.
Similar scale linear unlocks will continue at the beginning of each month.
Project progress: Audiera, as a game/AI-related project, has a burn mechanism to offset some supply, but unlocking pressure still exists. Overall, it is heavily influenced by market sentiment.
$BTC $ETH #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ On Monday morning, $BTC pulled back to 78,600, but what concerns me more is that in this rebound, there is almost no "new money" pushing it.
Looking at several data points together:
· BTC rose about 0.7% in 24 hours, $ETH is around 2290 USD;
· In the most recent trading day (10/30), the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about 643 million USD, ETH ETF outflow about 156 million, and ETH ETF has had net outflows for 23 consecutive trading days;
· On OKX, the current funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts is about 0.005%, below the usual 0.01% level, indicating leveraged longs are not crowded.
My understanding: this looks more like a technical correction after digesting the panic from the exchange hack, shorts are covering, but incremental funds have not yet entered. The advantage is that leverage is not heavy, so it’s not easy for a sharp drop to occur; the downside is the lack of sustained buying, so around 79,000–80,000 there will likely be hesitation.
I’m watching two points myself: whether the support near 76,000 (the low area after the hack news) holds; and whether the ETF data from the US stock market trading day tonight (to be released early tomorrow Beijing time) can turn positive. If ETFs continue to see outflows but prices go up, I will be more cautious rather than chasing.
What do you think? Is this round driven by new money entering, or shorts covering?> US stocks plummeted, A-shares plummeted
> Intel and Google plummeted
> Panic index surged
> Historically only 3 VIX gaps not filled: April 14 2025, April 8 2026, and yesterday's gap
> Historical data shows probability of filling gap within 180 trading days ∼97%
> I started bottom-fishing US stock indexes, buying more as they fall, only spot no leverage, but I avoid A-shares
#AMDQ3HeliosRevenue Big bro Maji got slammed by the trend again this round.
He threw in 65 million dollars, trying to hedge ETH longs with BTC shorts, but got slapped on both ends.
The craziest part is he still dared to heavily hold HYPE shorts against the trend, stubbornly fighting the main uptrend.
All I can say is no matter how big the capital, it's just an ant; in front of the trend, all beings are equal 😂 $BTC $ETH #闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13% $DOGE is at a loss because it simply doesn't follow the upward trend.
No movement over the weekend, and $DOGE's unrealized loss has returned to around 300U.
How is this number calculated: it gains less when rising, but doesn't drop a step when falling.
Adding and subtracting, after giving back all the gains, what's left is the loss.
Where exactly is it weak: mainstream coins have capital support, it relies on sentiment to push.
Once sentiment dissipates, the price hangs in place with no one to catch it.
$BTC is hovering around 78000, looking like it's waiting for someone to take the order.
But sideways movement itself doesn't indicate direction, it only shows that neither buyers nor sellers are in a hurry.
What really needs watching is whether the 76000 level can hold.
If it doesn't hold, the earlier batch of leveraged long positions will be directly liquidated by the system.
The sell orders will push the price down further, and the next batch will be sold off as well.
#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 $DOGE $BTC $OP looks suspicious: up over 30% in 7 days, but trading volume is only around 30% of normal.
This suggests a weak rally driven more by limited selling than strong buying demand. Low-volume pumps can reverse quickly when larger sell orders hit.
Meanwhile, OP remains 17% below its 30-day level and 20% lower over six months, leaving many late buyers underwater.
The recovery looks promising, but without stronger volume, it's hard to trust this momentum.
$OP #Crypto #TradingPalantir is also a Yes, but not so certain.
It needs to exceed consensus by a penny or two to pass the line, which sounds like a lot, but $PLTR has beaten expectations very strongly in past quarters, not just gradually. At this pace, a penny or two is not difficult.
What makes me hesitate is that recently analysts have been quietly lowering their expectations, and the company's own revenue guidance is slightly below what the market wants.
#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 I have 300 BTC spot in hand, yet I keep thinking about the past self who got off early. Have you ever calculated how much a single thought of "fear of poverty" is really worth? I came across an old post and was quiet for a while after reading it. At the end of 2022, someone could have held 300 BTC spot but withdrew 80% of the funds out of fear of a sudden zeroing out or liquidation, then turned around to buy Tencent at 200 HKD, and sold very early. In 2024, when BTC reached 57,000, he went short, losing two million USD in his trading account, added one million, and earned it back in just over a month. By 2026, the account was back to the equivalent of 300 BTC. After a long detour, he returned to the starting point, but those sleepless nights in between were real. Watching this review, my first reaction wasn’t envy but pity for the person who was always pushed by fear at critical moments. This is actually a very typical case of position management illness: it’s not about choosing the wrong direction, but about not holding the right position. Withdrawing funds to buy Tencent essentially means swapping a high-volatility asset for a low-volatility one, instantly lowering risk tolerance; shorting at 57,000 means adding leverage against the trend, betting on a pullback, but losing the rhythm. Behind both operations is the same thing: too low tolerance for drawdowns. What is the market trading now? I think it’s not just about direction, but about capital’s preference for "certainty." BTC has reached a point where fewer people are willing to chase highs, and those willing to buy on dips are picky about the timing. ETH and altcoins still have elasticity, but capital is clearly more willing to allocate to those with narratives and cash flow expectations Besides Binance, three other platforms are bleeding!
Binance was hacked for about $6.3 billion, and the whole network is watching. But in the same week, at least three others were also stolen from, just smaller amounts and no one is talking.
Unleash Protocol, around October 29, about $3.9 million: multisig governance was exploited, the attacker gained admin rights, pushed an unauthorized contract upgrade, and directly withdrew funds; 1337 ETH went into Tornado Cash.
Troves, October 31, 8.6 BTC: the old rebalancing contract was replaced but permissions were not revoked, the attacker entered through an open door; the team could only post an on-chain message, offering 1 WBTC to ask the attacker to return the funds.
Premia Labs, November 1, about $464,000 (according to PeckShield): flash loans plus short option pools, collateral from six vaults was drained — its total locked value on Arbitrum was only about $530,000, nearly 90% lost.
PeckShield statistics: 56 major attacks in October, total losses $6.48 billion, Binance alone accounts for about 97%, the remaining 55 attacks total about $180 million.
Also stolen: Binance covered and replenished about 95%; Troves is pleading with the hacker; Premia has not yet said whether it will compensate. Annualized returns are clearly priced, but security never is.
$BTC C #securityCT peaked at 0.15466 yesterday and has fallen back to around 0.133 today.
At 11 o'clock yesterday, the hourly candle closed with a trading volume of $317,500, closing at 0.14805. By 13:32 today, OKEx spot reported 0.13279, down about 8.27% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of approximately $2,648,100. The buy and sell orders within 1% of the current price are about $99,700 and $68,700 respectively.
My judgment is that the volume surge and price spike yesterday did not continue. The recently closed hourly candle from 12 to 13 o'clock had a trading volume of $88,700, which is lower than the average volume of $96,700 over the previous 12 closed hours. The price has fallen back, and the volume has not shown new expansion.
It is easy to mistake the buy orders still hanging on the order book as someone having caught the decline. Next, I will watch for two consecutive closed hourly candles; if the volume exceeds $96,700 and the closing price rises candle by candle, I will reassess this pullback; if the volume remains low, I will not consider the order book depth as evidence of a bottom.
$CT $ETH $BTC $SOL prices have risen, but institutional funds have not yet returned.
On the morning of November 2, CoinMarketCap data showed $BTC at about $78,296, up 1.16% in 24 hours; $ETH at $2,278, up 1.18%; $SOL at $94.57, down 0.82%. Among the top 100, $TRUMP led gains with an 8.43% increase, while Meme fell 6.09% at the bottom. The Fear and Greed Index was 35, still in the fear zone.
Why the disconnect? Two sets of facts: First, on October 30, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $643 million in one day, giving back the approximately $441 million inflow of the previous four days; the Ethereum ETF also had a net outflow of about $156 million that day. Second, Bitcoin briefly dropped to $76,190 last week Monday but closed daily above the 365-day moving average of $77,019.
The logic is: short-term is emotional repair, long-term is capital confirmation. Price rebounds do not equal institutional re-entry; ETF outflows slowing or turning positive is a stronger confirmation signal. $TRUMP led gains while the Meme sector overall fell 0.25%, indicating this is just a localized rotation. Solana minted $250 million USDC on-chain but did not drive $SOL to rise.
Price ranges: $BTC fluctuated between $77,517 and $78,422, with $78,000 as a contested level; $ETH ranged from $2,248 to $2,278, with around $2,300 as a signal?$TRX
I've been watching a detail for two days. After the Binance hack, the largest money laundering flow on the chain went through TRON.
In two days, about 242 million USD was laundered from the hacker's hands via TRON. Today Gate said it froze two related accounts; 250,000 was still deposited there 12 hours ago.
TRX is now 0.3145, up 0.16% in 24 hours. The range is 0.3094 to 0.3157, as narrow as if no one is trading.
The contract side is even colder. TRX perpetual total open interest is 23 million USD. The hacker handled 242 million, ten times the open interest, yet the price remains unchanged.
I've thought about it for a long time; the logic is simple. Money laundering needs a transfer channel, not chips. The dealer just passes through, doesn't build a position, so no matter how lively the chain is, it doesn't reflect on the order book.
Conversely, if one day TRX suddenly surges with volume accompanied by such news, my first reaction probably wouldn't be positive.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ $SNDK
From 1374 down to 1117 in two days, a nineteen percent drop. SNDK has moved like this these past two days; it’s not some small altcoin.
Today it climbed to around 1198, the 24-hour high is there, looks like it has stopped. I checked the volume and felt half my heart sink.
On October 30th, that big sell-off day, the volume was 1.25 million contracts. Today so far it’s 136,000. The rebound volume is only one-ninth of the sell-off volume.
I don’t chase this kind of volume. The price has returned, but the chips haven’t. Those willing to buy at the bottom finished buying during yesterday’s lower shadow. Most of today’s push up is short covering, not new money.
The funding rate speaks first. SNDK perpetual is now +0.029%, the longs are paying the shorts again. For a product that just dropped nineteen percent, a positive funding rate shows the longs are quite eager.
So I’m not taking this trade. I’ll wait for this low-volume rebound to finish and see if it can hold above 1150 for three days. If it can’t hold, we’ll have to revisit the 1117 low.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ The midterm elections landing does not mean the bearish factors are all out, but rather the start of a new round of macroeconomic games.
1. Fiscal wrangling, short-term risk aversion: The Democrats are highly likely to take the House of Representatives. After the December funding expires, government shutdown and debt ceiling struggles will play out again. This political uncertainty will briefly trigger market risk aversion.
2. Tariff mischief suppressing liquidity: Trump is highly likely to impose new tariffs, which will make it harder for inflation to cool down. Expectations for rate cuts will be suppressed, dollar liquidity will tighten, and resistance to Bitcoin's upward movement will increase.
3. AI regulatory storm: After the Democrats win, AI regulatory investigations on large tech companies are expected. If tech giants come under regulatory pressure, the crypto market will inevitably be dragged down.
This week not only has the elections but also non-farm payroll data. This "macro double whammy" combination guarantees a volatile market.
Before political noise and capital repricing are completed, never bet on a one-sided move.
The best strategy is to reduce leverage and keep enough ammunition.
Wait for the election results to settle and the market to digest the sentiment, then follow the real capital flow to do right-side trading.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ZEC ZEC's current situation is really laughable, 84% of the positions are all shorts, the entire screen is filled with short sellers who are desperately holding on.
Below, there's a giant whale short position of 180 million U that is currently at a floating loss, pretending to be dead. The market can't be pushed down at all, the selling pressure has long been absorbed.
This kind of extreme crowded structure is ready-made fuel for the main force. The dealer just needs to casually ignite a fire upwards, and the densely triggered chain stop-loss orders will push the price to explode by themselves.
A single big bullish candle can uproot all the shorts.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇$BTC ETF dumped 643 million in a single day, setting a half-year record, yet a bunch of people are shouting that the bad news is fully priced in and rushing to buy the dip?
The bulls now only have positive narratives left, but no matter how strong the narrative is, it can't withstand the solid redemption orders.
Big players are moving their holdings out themselves, meanwhile discounting and dumping liquidity provided by retail investors. Every time the bottom-fishing consensus is strongest, it's basically when the main force hits the downward accelerator. Don't be in a hurry to give your head away.
#BTC
$BTC
👇Putting aside tomorrow's midterm elections, hasn't Bitcoin's rebound already broken through 80,000?
I can't put it aside; tomorrow's election is the biggest policy variable this week. Whether the Republicans win both chambers, lose both, or split one each, the outcomes will lead to different directions.
Today is the quiet period before the election, and everyone is watching and waiting. We neither dare to bet on the regulatory tightening bearish impact from a big Democratic win, nor dare to bet on the policy easing bullish impact from a full Republican victory. So generally, people choose to reduce positions or sell off to lower this uncertainty, resulting in low trading volume.
Today, a positive development is brewing: Iran talks have conveyed a "two-day plan," causing oil prices to start plunging. Our short position at 103 has also profited as expected, and we continue to hold with a target of 99.
With oil prices falling and cooling down, inflationary pressure can be relieved, Bitcoin funds may flow back, and prices rise. Just yesterday, we took a long position on Bitcoin at 77,800, which we still hold, targeting 79,300-79,800.
The updates I talk about daily—crude oil, elections, Binance hack—have all progressed:
1. Sensitivity to Binance's security incident has rapidly declined; panic sentiment has basically eased and ended. This event can no longer drive Bitcoin down; on the contrary, due to proper handling, the bearish news has been fully absorbed and turned bullish.
2. Before the election, Trump sent calming signals, crude oil started to fall, inflation is cooling, inflationary pressure is easing, and Bitcoin may take this opportunity to continue rising.
My technical view:
Bitcoin at 78,000 already has capital support, but with election pressure, a pullback from 80,000 is certain. The rebound above 79,500 should start to see volume contraction. After taking profit on the 77,800 long, I plan to short.
Just keep holding the 77,800 long from yesterday; stop loss remains at 77,500. If it rebounds above 79,000 today, you can exit first.
For shorts, when the rebound reaches the 79,500-80,000 range and shows signs of stagnation, try light short positions with stop loss set above 80,300.
Before the election, don't hold heavy positions to avoid risks from unexpected results. There's something I've never quite understood: why does my crypto turn red in my account whenever the Bank of Japan says something? What does Japan have to do with my $BTC?
Later I figured it out: a huge amount of money worldwide is borrowed in yen, at rates so cheap they're almost interest-free, and used to buy various assets, including crypto. Now the central bank says real interest rates are rising, especially for long and ultra-long terms—that means the rent on this cheap money is going up.
When rent goes up, borrowers have to sell something to pay back their debts. What do they sell? The easiest to sell.
$ETH has good liquidity, so they sell it first.
So don't just keep an eye on the Fed; when Tokyo sneezes, we catch a cold here too.I see opening a short position on-chain as something to first place within the framework of liquidity and risk appetite, rather than directly guessing price movements. Core Trader 86 (0x536496…86026) just opened a $SOL short with 10x leverage, nominal value about $57,700. This is a fresh bet; the outcome is not yet revealed.
My inclination is to treat it as a somewhat defensive expression, but not yet as a signal of a collective shift by large funds. The position of a single address only shows its willingness to take on short risk; we cannot see the full asset portfolio, so we cannot rule out the possibility of hedging.
My reasoning is that if macro liquidity tightens and overall risk appetite declines, then capital might reduce exposure to high-volatility assets, making this short position favorable. Conversely, if risk appetite warms up, leverage will amplify the headwind: roughly calculated at 10x, a 1% adverse price move corresponds to about a 10% loss of initial margin, not counting fees. The exact liquidation threshold cannot be determined from this information alone.
Therefore, I am more interested in observing whether this defensive intent will spread, rather than being carried away by the mere words "opening a short." What concerns everyone most now: US dollar liquidity, interest rate expectations, or overall risk appetite? Which factor’s change would make you reassess this SOL short?The Bank of Japan's quarterly outlook report is brief but hits the most sensitive spot in global risk assets.
It said something very straightforward: recently, Japan's real interest rates have risen, especially long-term and ultra-long-term rates. It also added that when assessing the domestic financial environment, it looks at various data and survey results and does not rely on a single indicator.
The first sentence is a fact; the second is a posture. The central bank is leaving room for itself — rates are indeed rising, but it doesn't want to be tied down by a single indicator. Such statements usually appear when it knows the direction is set but hasn't decided the pace yet.
Why is this important for the crypto world? Because in recent years, the cheapest money globally has come from the yen. Borrowing yen, swapping for dollars, buying risk assets — this chain has quietly operated for a long time. No one can accurately calculate how much of $BTC and $ETH holdings came from this, but it definitely exists. Once the yen financing cost rises systemically, this chain doesn't break but slowly shrinks back. In the shrinking process, the first to be sold are always the most liquid and most profitable assets.
So what really matters is not whether the next rate hike happens but whether long-term and ultra-long-term rates can flatten. Flattening means the market has accepted the new pricing; if they continue to rise, it means pricing is not over, and risk assets will have to give way for another round.
One last note: emphasizing "not relying on a single indicator" is a hawkish disclaimer when inflation is high and a dovish hint when growth weakens. The same sentence has two interpretations, depending on the next data release.2x leverage is the detail I care about most in this whale news. Let's consider the worst-case scenario first: if ZEC drops rapidly, the spot position will suffer a drawdown, and the long position may also face margin calls or liquidation pressure. According to Lookonchain monitoring, this whale bought $ZEC spot while opening the long position.
I don't take this as a more reliable bullish signal. ⚠️ When spot and long positions align, risks may accumulate rather than diversify; and this news doesn't disclose the whale's total assets or hedging arrangements. We can see the position but can't calculate their risk tolerance. For ordinary people, the easiest misjudgment is to mistake a "big bet" for a "high probability win."
My habit from previous risk control work is: first combine risks of the same coin, then look at the worst loss as a percentage of the account, rather than just focusing on whether the leverage multiple is low or not. No matter how eye-catching the position is, it can't bear losses for me.Binance's SAFU fund has transferred 7,500 bitcoins (approximately $580.88 million) to a new wallet.
On-chain data shows that Binance's SAFU user protection fund has transferred 7,500 bitcoins to a new wallet in the past few hours.
• Number of bitcoins transferred: 7,500 $BTC (approximately $580.88 million)
• Source: Binance SAFU fund
Recipient: new wallet, purpose of transfer unknown
• Binance has not yet officially confirmed whether this is a sale, a transfer to a custody wallet, or used to cover losses.
I believe SAFU is a user reserve fund, so I tend to think Binance will use this fund to deal with the aftermath of a hacker attack rather than selling it for profit. I think this bitcoin is very likely used to repurchase stolen assets or compensate victims. But there is no definite news yet, so I cannot draw a conclusion. I will wait until the bitcoin is actually deposited into the exchange before making a decision.
There is a lot of news about the Binance incident, so please do not click on strange links claiming to offer refunds or account verification, and absolutely do not enter any mnemonic phrases.
People want to know whether Binance is using the SAFU fund to cover losses or just transferring to a custody wallet.$BTC Regarding Trump's Midterm Elections
During the election expectation phase, the market's core focus shifts to regulatory expectations. In the Trump campaign phase, he clearly stated plans to slow down SEC enforcement crackdowns, promote stablecoin legislation, build a U.S. crypto industry hub, and even proposed establishing a national Bitcoin strategic reserve. As expectations heat up, funds are likely to price in advance, making BTC and the mainstream coins mentioned more prone to expectation-driven rallies, with altcoin sector sentiment warming up simultaneously.
The market rhythm is divided into two stages: as election odds rise, positive expectations boost the market; after vote counting, there tends to be a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" effect, with positive news quickly fading. Meanwhile, his trade and tariff policies will disrupt the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, indirectly driving crypto volatility. When risk appetite rises, it benefits coin prices; when risk aversion intensifies, it suppresses the market.
On the risk side, the upside of positive news is limited. His bills still require congressional votes and do not take effect immediately upon election; additionally, he opposes central bank digital currencies, which benefits private crypto and stablecoins, but industry compliance thresholds and anti-money laundering rules will not be completely removed.
Sector differentiation is clear: Bitcoin, ETH, XRP, SOL, and similar mentioned assets show stronger resilience, while purely speculative altcoins are more sentiment-driven and less sustainable. In short-term trading, it is unwise to chase prices during rising odds; focus on expectation fulfillment signals before and after vote counting, combined with the Federal Reserve's interest rate rhythm. A single election narrative is unlikely to sustain a prolonged bull market. $BTC The automated trading system monitors over 200 altcoins simultaneously but hasn't detected any activity, indicating that the entire crypto space is severely depleted! $BTC $ETH $SOPH $PLTR Earnings Preview: Expected to Beat, But Watch Out for Profit Taking!
Palantir will release its Q3 2026 earnings after the U.S. market close on November 2. I tend to believe this earnings report still has a high probability of exceeding market expectations.
The market currently expects revenue of about $2.18 billion, adjusted EPS of about $0.41, with revenue growth of approximately 84% year-over-year and EPS growth close to 94% year-over-year. Looking at the past few quarters, Palantir has repeatedly beaten analyst expectations, with AI commercialization remaining the biggest growth driver.
I am more optimistic about two aspects: first, the demand from U.S. commercial clients for the AIP platform continues to grow; enterprise AI is no longer just a concept but is gradually turning into actual orders; second, government and defense business have strong order continuity, especially the U.S. defense sector's demand for AI systems.
However, PLTR's current valuation is not cheap, and the market has already priced in quite high growth expectations. Even if this earnings report beats expectations, if next quarter's guidance is not strong enough, profit taking may occur.
My judgment: The earnings data leans optimistic with a high probability of beating expectations, but whether the stock price can rise depends mainly on whether the performance guidance can be raised again.
#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 "Two links exit the stage, can LSK and G still tell new stories?"
This time, not talking about a surge, but a more painful question: Why can tokens still exist after blockchain shutdown?
LSK: Lisk officially announced as early as August that the original Lisk Chain is scheduled to shut down on October 31, with business shifting to enterprise financial software. The official statement said the governance proposal has passed, 100 million LSK have been burned, reducing total supply from 400 million to 300 million; tokens are converted into loyalty incentives on the new platform, with plans to support fee payments in the future. Note: coin burning has been implemented, payment use has not yet been realized. What needs to be checked later are actual paying enterprises, reward distribution, and token demand.
G: Galxe official announcement states that the old Gravity Alpha mainnet will permanently shut down on November 1, with the new Gravity L1 mainnet already launched. The official also preemptively closed the old bridge and staking entrance, warning that assets left on the old chain may not be transferable. This is a network migration, not a delisting of G tokens; but whether the migration can attract real applications, transactions, and fees remains to be seen.
The two are similar but cannot be conflated: LSK is a business direction transformation, G is an underlying network switch. The former depends on whether commercial payments can be realized, the latter on new chain activity and migration losses. The certainty of the old chain's exit does not equal the realization of new value.
Would you rather bet on the transformed product or the upgraded public chain?
#LSK #G Not investment advice A-shares are doing their own thing today, with the ChiNext Index surging over three points. Baijiu and AI webcomic stocks hit daily limit-ups in batches, over 4,700 stocks are in the green, and the half-day turnover volume has surged to 1.14 trillion yuan.
The Hong Kong market is joining the party, with the Hang Seng Tech Index up nearly three points, led by optical communications and Chinese brokerage firms.
Overnight, the US stock market showed a completely different picture. Intel lost 28 points in one day, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index crashed over seven points in a single week. Interestingly, Intel's earnings report itself was not bad; data center AI revenue even rose by more than 70%. The sell-off was entirely due to Q4 guidance and the weak PC demand.
On the crypto side, still dragged by hacker aftershocks, $BTC is hovering around 78,000, $ETH is stuck around 2,250. The US Bitcoin ETF saw an outflow of $640 million in a single day, the largest since October, but the decline is much more restrained compared to the 2018 crash.
On one side, we're here drinking and enjoying short dramas, having a blast; on the other, US tech stocks are being slaughtered by valuation cuts, bleeding heavily. The temperature difference is indeed absurd.Will $BTC take over the baton from gold! The 2020 trend has been brought back. Back then, it rose from 11,500 to 69,000 dollars! Now gold is weakening, while Bitcoin holds at 76,000 dollars.
The window for capital rotation is about to open again!
In 2020, after gold peaked in August, BTC subsequently rose from about 11,500 dollars all the way to 69,000 dollars in November 2021, but this successive rise in history does not directly prove that all gold funds have shifted into Bitcoin.
This year, gold hit a high point again in January before falling back, while BTC clearly rebounded from the low point at the end of June, with a rise of about 34% according to the source, forming a strong-weak contrast worth observing.
What I am more concerned about is whether this divergence can continue to expand. The source mentioned that gold is losing support from the past 12 months, but the support range still needs specific chart confirmation;
If gold continues to weaken, but BTC can hold at 76,000 dollars and attract new buying, the judgment of capital preference shift will be more confident.
Going forward, we still need to watch BTC's performance relative to gold and the capital changes in the two types of ETFs. Relying solely on one side falling and the other rebounding is not enough to confirm that capital has moved.
If gold continues to be under pressure and BTC's lows keep rising, the possibility of rotation deserves attention.
If new funds come to take over, Bitcoin will have the chance to turn relative strength into an upward breakout!
$XAU
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The overall market open interest volume remains basically flat, but the position structure shows significant divergence. Bitcoin ($BTC) open interest rose counter-trend by 0.95%, while Ethereum ($ETH), SOL ($SOL), and ZEC ($ZEC) declined by 1.56%, 0.90%, and 1.73% respectively. Funds have not exited the market; they have simply shifted from altcoins to Bitcoin. In previous market trends, Bitcoin strength often drove leveraged expansion in altcoins, but this time the movement is completely opposite. Even with minimal price fluctuations, traders are concentrating their holdings in Bitcoin while reducing positions in other coins. The core driver is macro-level uncertainty. The Federal Reserve has signaled rate hikes, with significant divergence in December rate expectations, making leveraged funds reluctant to fully increase positions. Funds treat Bitcoin as a safe base holding, continuously compressing exposure to other coins. Currently, Bitcoin's isolated strength cannot confirm a trend reversal; only when Ethereum ($ETH), SOL ($SOL), and ZEC ($ZEC) positions simultaneously improve will an overall market trend form. Until then, maintaining a wait-and-see approach is the safer choice. $BTC $ETH $SOL $ZECSeeing the news "Whale buys spot and goes long 8,000 ZEC," I almost laughed out loud.
In this market, the real big players are always quiet; who would loudly announce they're going to pump the price?
This is clearly a smokescreen released by the main force, aiming to lure retail investors into taking the risk!
Look closely at the chart: the price just pulled up to around 1268, with dense trapped positions from the previous crash between 1270 and 1280.
The moving averages are firmly pressing down above; the main force can't push it up at all.
Releasing the "whale going long" news at this time is just to trick you into chasing the high, so they can distribute chips at the top!
83% of retail investors are shorting; the main force deliberately pumps to create panic, trying to shake out the shorts.
But as long as the resistance above isn't broken, this rebound is just a paper tiger.
The current price of 1268 is an excellent spot for a high short sniper.
If it breaks the support below, it will plunge straight down.
Trading pioneer Livermore once warned: "Don't be fooled by the market noise; focus on the core logic that truly affects the price."
The whale's shout orders are noise; the main trend downward is the core.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ A daily loss of $463 million. When I saw this, the first thought in my mind wasn’t "the market is going to crash," but rather: will it become harder for small-cap coins to have multiple hot stories at the same time? 👀 According to this data from DefiLlama, the total amount of USD stablecoins is shrinking, and the weekly circulation of USDT and USDC is also declining.
This is somewhat interesting, but I think its impact on small-cap sentiment is more likely reflected in "story selection" rather than all sectors cooling down simultaneously. A decrease in circulation doesn’t mean the trading volume immediately loses the same amount of money, nor does it reveal where the remaining funds want to go. Translating this directly as a broad market decline feels too hasty.
My speculation is that if the contraction continues, highly volatile assets driven by sentiment relay might find it harder to maintain multiple narratives being hot at the same time. The opportunity lies in attention possibly concentrating in a few directions; the risk is that concentrated hype can be mistaken for a sector-wide recovery, and chasing the hype without sufficient support can be painful.
I will treat this data as background for observing the sustainability of themes: whether stablecoin contraction continues, and whether discussions in related sectors can focus on real usage rather than just price screenshots. What sectors have you been paying attention to recently? In this context, what signals would you use to distinguish real demand from temporary hype? 🔍The more autonomously AI can operate, who will hit the brakes? I've been watching this news: Liang Fengyi stated at Hong Kong FinTech Week 2026 that the Securities and Futures Commission plans to establish a cybersecurity framework for licensed institutions, impose higher requirements on high-risk institutions, and formulate principled guidelines for AI applications with a high degree of autonomy.
Don't rush to conclusions; this is a plan, not finalized detailed rules. An interesting detail here: requirements increase with risk, and there is an emphasis on full-process accountability to humans and retaining human supervision. I judge that the most affected will be licensed institutions that delegate more business to AI, rather than all institutions bearing equal pressure.
This is my speculation: if risk grading and human supervision requirements become concrete rules, then before institutions expand AI applications, they must first calculate protection and supervision costs. The race for speed may shift to a race for control. I will continue to watch the criteria for identifying high risk. Do you think we should focus on AI autonomy level or the scale of funds involved in the business? Let's keep an eye on the follow-up and see who guesses closer.To be honest, whenever I used to see news about large purchases, the first thought that popped into my head was: If they dare to buy, they must know more than I do. That's the trap—taking someone else's actions as your own basis for judgment.
According to monitoring by Ai Auntie, a certain address has cumulatively bought about 18,600 $ETH on-chain in the past two hours, worth over $42.4 million. This volume grabs attention, but I think it still can't be used as a basis for the contract's direction.
This reminds me of the atmosphere where everyone watches the whales, eager to copy their moves. On-chain purchases don't reveal the full risk exposure of the other party, and actions within two hours don't indicate holding periods. Ordinary people are most prone to turning short-term news into long-term beliefs, and when prices fluctuate, they hate admitting they're wrong.
I now stick to two rules: no adding leverage impulsively no matter how hot the news is; and write exit conditions before opening a position, not using whether the whale is still around as an excuse. Have you ever been thrown off rhythm by large purchase news? Would you be willing to share a rule to prevent chasing orders?Don't just focus on the beautiful upward curve of USDC circulation volume—that's only the cardiac output, not the contraction strength of the myocardium itself. Before the market opens on November 4th, Circle's Q3 report is essentially a pre-heart transplant recipient evaluation: stablecoin payment expansion is the preload, reserve income is the perfusion pressure, distribution cost is the peripheral vascular resistance, and profitability is the ejection fraction that determines whether this surgery can close the chest. The market always treats circulation growth as a positive sign, like declaring the patient recovered just by looking at the numbers on the monitor; but surgeons know that if blood volume increases accompanied by capillary leakage, it only pushes the patient into pulmonary edema. If USDC's scale expansion relies on high-cost distribution channels to force-feed, no matter how thick the reserve income is, it can't make up for the anastomotic leakage. The real indicators to read are three: whether the duration and yield of reserve assets match the redemption rhythm on the liability side, which is the coronary flow reserve; whether the ratio of distribution cost to reserve income converges, which is the systemic vascular resistance; and whether the quality of profit comes from natural penetration of payment scenarios rather than subsidy-driven inflation, which is the metabolic equivalent of myocardial perfusion. The linkage of tokenized stock targets is more like intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography, which can see volume response in real time but also amplifies artifacts. If Q3 shows circulation growth but unit distribution cost does not decrease, that is high output, low resistance shock—looks lively but tissue perfusion is insufficient. If reserve income growth is swallowed by channel costs, it's like a bypass vessel is patent but the distal myocardium is not visible. The worst thing on the operating table is not bleeding, but bleeding quietly sucked away by the aspirator. The quality of USDC's growth depends on the net ejection fraction after subtracting distribution costs from reserve income, not the enlarged cardiac silhouette of circulation volume. No matter how beautiful the preoperative coronary angiography is, it cannot replace myocardial viability assessment; no matter how large the scale on the report, it cannot replace the myocardial biopsy of the unit economic model. What truly determines the success of this surgery is whether the anastomosis between reserve income and distribution cost is unobstructed, not the pretty numbers on the monitor. #circleq3usdcgrowthBTC Seller Exhaustion Index revisits the cycle's secondary low point, further confirming the bottom range. Don't wait any longer!!
#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧
On August 11 this year, the Seller Exhaustion Index first entered the extreme exhaustion zone, when BTC was around $63,000, marking an important signal for the bottom range. Now the price has retraced near $77,000, and the index has formed this cycle's secondary low (point 2), only higher than the August reading, strengthening the bottom structure.
The BTC Seller Exhaustion Index simultaneously tracks low volatility and high losses, triggering only when both conditions are met.
Historical patterns show:
· Only during cycle bottom phases does it easily enter the extreme exhaustion zone (red area);
· Once the bottom structure is established, even if the price hits new lows, the index rarely records lower readings;
· Point 1 is the first entry into the extreme zone (not necessarily the absolute lowest price); point 2 usually has higher certainty.
In fact, the current market environment also validates this judgment:
Following the hacker incident, continuous net outflows, the upcoming midterm elections, a fear and greed index around 37, and $BTC slightly rebounding near $78,400–$78,600. After rising from an earlier low and then retracing, the index has not simultaneously hit new lows, fitting the characteristic of "difficulty in reaching extreme lows after leaving the bottom," indicating further exhaustion of selling pressure.
Operational advice:
If you missed point 1, the confirmation value of point 2's secondary low may now be higher.
No need to stubbornly wait for lower signals; you can start layering positions at the current level, using the area near $77,000 as an important reference for this bottom range.