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Today oil prices fell back, with the market trading on hopes of the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Iran has proposed that if the US meets certain conditions, the strait could be reopened within two days.
The easiest part to overlook here is the "if" at the beginning.
The two-day timeframe refers to the execution plan after conditions are met, and does not mean that from the moment the news is released, the market has already entered a definite countdown. Whether frozen assets, blockades, and other conditions can be negotiated still determines if the plan can be initiated.
This also explains why diplomatic news can cause oil prices to drop quickly, while actual supply may not change in sync. Traders first adjust their estimates of future disruption risks, while transportation arrangements require more steps.
I understand that capital is willing to bet in advance. If you wait for all details to be confirmed, prices have usually already moved. But those betting must also accept that if one condition fails to be agreed upon, the previously removed risk premium may return.
Next, I will watch for whether all parties make a consistent confirmation on the same plan and whether specific execution arrangements are announced. Saying unilaterally that it can be completed quickly is a different stage from both sides having agreed to start.
The most frustrating part of this round of market activity is that optimistic news always gives a very short timeframe, while the negotiations themselves keep extending. Oil prices can react first, but whether hope can turn into supply still requires subsequent facts to support it.
#美伊谈判推进，霍尔木兹重开方案受关注 🔷 CryptoX-ray #26: $CHIP - 69% below ATH, unlock ahead
Loans at $306M, CHIP market cap $86M, income to holders $0.
Unlock on 04/16/2027: 2.76B CHIP, 138% turnover (~$119M at $0.043).
Red flag: supply pressure. Intention to sell not proven.
Background: TVL $659M (project) vs $274M (DefiLlama), metrics differ.
Verdict: business is operational, token is off the money.
Will the unlock be absorbed or will it crush CHIP? 👇To be honest, when I saw this news, the first thing that came to mind was that kind of market atmosphere where "as soon as the pressure eases a bit, people rush to call for a reversal." I used to easily mistake the easing of negative news for a trend reversal, but later I realized that one less bad news does not equal one more reason for an uptrend.
CryptoSlate mentioned that the drop in oil prices gives Bitcoin some breathing room, but gasoline was the main driver of the month-on-month increase in the September CPI. OPEC+ continues to limit oil supply, which may delay improvements in the financing environment. I think this is short-term relief pressure for $BTC, but not yet a trend-level positive: the fall in oil prices can ease inflation pressure, but supply restrictions add uncertainty to future oil prices, and the financing environment may not necessarily loosen accordingly. Ordinary people tend to directly equate these steps.
I now follow two rules: not to use a single macro news item as a reason to leverage up; and to wait for inflation and financing conditions to mutually confirm before judging that the environment has improved. Take one less step to survive first. $BTC hovered around 78,000 for a day. The ETF has seen $859 million flow in over the past six trading days, but the whales quietly increased their on-chain holdings to 3.03 million coins, the fastest accumulation rate since February. They are selling and buying at the same time, completely contradictory directions.
$ETH whales acted more decisively here, with one address spending $62.97 million in five hours to scoop up 27,553 coins at an average price of 2,286. Real money is more active here than on BTC.
$ZEC also has speculators; whales bought 3,052 coins spot and opened 2x leveraged long positions with a nominal value of $10.16 million. Smaller coins actually see leveraged positions.
In A-shares today, AI applications and film theaters led the gains. Bona Film Group and China Vision Media hit consecutive daily limits, with turnover reaching 1.78 trillion yuan and volume increasing by over 100 billion. The ChiNext Index closed up 1.87%, with big finance and liquor stocks also lifting the market.
In Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Tech Index surged over 3% in the afternoon. Horizon Robotics rose over 8%, Xiaomi and Tencent collectively turned positive. U.S. semiconductor stocks are adjusting pre-market; SK Hynix rose nearly 5%, Nvidia up 1.47%, but Morgan Stanley poured cold water, saying the S&P might still drop another 9% before bottoming out. Despite the rebound, don’t take it too seriously.Holding 100,000 U without moving it can still generate about 238 yuan in daily income? OKX's new gameplay this time is worth paying attention to.
OKX Flash Earn has added a Hold to Earn coin-holding reward mechanism. By holding specified qualified assets and signing up for the event, you have the chance to earn extra income.
Supported assets include some US stock tokens, such as xTSLA, xNVDA, xGOOGL, xMSTR, etc.
Based on the current reference annualized rate of 13.08%:
* Principal of 100,000 U, theoretical daily income about 35.84 U.
* Monthly calculation, about 1,075 U.
* Theoretical annual income about 13,080 U.
At an estimated rate of 1 U ≈ 6.64 RMB, that's about 238 yuan per day, approximately 7,140 yuan per month.
However, note that 13.08% is a reference annualized rate and does not represent fixed income. Actual rewards depend on event rules, qualified asset scope, participation amount, and reward period. US stock tokens themselves also carry price volatility and platform-related risks.
It looks like letting your assets work for you, but don’t just focus on the yield rate—first clearly understand the principal risk and event conditions. $ENS $ETH Damn! ETH's sell-off this time is really fierce, the main force directly smashed down the 2280.51 level with money, the manipulative whales' intention to shake out is obvious. 🔥
Looking at the candlesticks, the upward volume is clearly shrinking, the capital flow shows all signs of selling, don't ask, just go all in short. Data doesn't lie, this kind of volume contraction and slow decline is a typical bull trap.
You can lightly short near 2280, set stop loss above 2315, if it breaks 2250, accelerate down to 2220. Don't be greedy, discipline comes first.
If you want to follow, go to the market card below and click in, control your position yourself, don't come crying to me after getting hit by a rebound. 👇👇👇
The above is only personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, please invest rationally, manage risk well, and do not blindly follow others.#Palantir Earnings Report Expectations: Can High Growth Support the High Valuation? Apple $AAPL's earnings report tonight, I'm actually more concerned about its profit margin🧐
Recently, several tech giants have been pouring money into AI, and the market is starting to worry whether capital expenditures of tens of billions of dollars can be recouped
Apple is quite different; it hasn't really participated much in this money-burning battle this year, yet its stock price has performed quite well😂
AI data centers are driving up demand for storage chips, pushing up memory prices. Although Apple saved huge AI infrastructure investments, it faces pressure from rising hardware costs
The market expects Apple's revenue to grow about 11% this quarter, but net profit to grow only about 6%
Revenue growth looks good, but profit is lagging a bit
So for this earnings report, I will focus on the gross margin and the guidance for the upcoming holiday quarter:
If new products sell well but profit margins continue to be under pressure, then Apple's light-asset AI strategy advantage might need to be recalculated
#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 $XRP that hadn't moved for 4 days after being stolen was emptied early this morning
The quietest sum in the Binance hack case moved early this morning. On the day of the theft, 233.46 million $XRP were sent in 5 transactions to the same address, and none moved for 4 days; early this morning (around 11:55 Beijing time), chain monitoring first caught two transfers of 40 million $XRP each, only 50 seconds apart, totaling about $101 million, then the address was basically emptied, leaving about 23.7 $XRP.
But who exactly made the transfer is now disputed between two camps. Whale Alert labeled this address as "Binance Hack 2026," implying the hackers are dividing the funds; another view is that Binance itself is clearing out the hacked hot wallet and consolidating the remaining funds into a new wallet as a technical follow-up.
Binance has not confirmed which side is correct. The two explanations differ greatly: one is that the recovery has entered a new phase, the other that it is just cleanup work. Focus first on one point: whether the transferred coins went into an exchange—if yes, they are cashed out; if not, the situation remains uncertain.
$XRP is currently about $1.25 (Beijing time 21:23).Back to the $SNDK battlefield again, but this time I don't want to pay tuition fees anymore!
Previously, SanDisk cut me three times in a row, and I've had enough of the liquidation experience. Re-entering this time, risk control must be the top priority.
$SNDK has fallen all the way down from around $1400, with a heavy volume drop of 13.47% on October 30, closing at $1150.89. A rebound followed, indicating a short-term need for recovery, but it's too early to confirm a trend reversal.
Key levels to watch:
* $1150: The first line of defense between bulls and bears.
* $1112: Breaking below this could open up further downside.
* $1196: Short-term rebound resistance.
* $1240: Only by stabilizing above this can the downtrend be reversed.
The daily RSI is near 35, suggesting a possible oversold rebound, but the MACD remains bearish.
This time, no betting on direction, no blindly adding positions, and no risking liquidation to chase a rebound. First, see if $1150 can hold, then wait for the market to give a signal before acting.
Can't fall into the same pit for the fourth time in a row!
$SNDK #SanDisk $ETH remains weak with no signs of improvement, and negative news keeps piling up.
Around 2279, a slight rise. It has dropped nearly 15% in 30 days, definitely disappointing.
Sliding down steadily from above 2800, a classic descending channel.
Warning: ZachXBT alerted that over 100 million dollars were stolen from an EU entity, and hackers are still moving funds. Such incidents only worsen market sentiment.
Bulls can't lift their heads at all. Contract rebounds to around 2400-2500 are opportunities to short.
$HYPE, a strong coin, is pulling back with intense high-level shakeout.
Around 85.5, down 2.4%.
Although it’s down today, looking at the long term, it has nearly doubled in half a year (+96%) and risen 54% in 90 days. This definitely counts as a strong contender currently.
The super trendline below is near 78. As long as it doesn’t break this line, the bullish trend remains.
Trade.xyz spent 586 HYPE to acquire the code; the ecosystem is still active. The high-level volatility is most likely profit-taking shakeout.
Don’t try to short at the top! Strong coins are prone to counterattacks. Be patient and wait for it to pull back to around 78-80; if it holds, going long with the trend is even better. $BCH | SHORT SETUP
BCH remains bearish after a sharp decline. Rejection below $278 could extend weakness.
Entry: 277.50–278.00
TP1: 275.50
TP2: 273.50
SL: 280.20
Wait for confirmation before entry.#AMDQ3HeliosRevenue $ZEC funds are starting to flow back, this rebound might not be that simple!
Recently, although ZEC experienced a round of correction, the funding data shows that spot positions have not fully withdrawn. Especially in the last 8 and 12 hours, net inflows reached 7.89 million USD and 11.72 million USD respectively, and short-term buying has begun to warm up.
The price is still fluctuating, but funds have already moved. Next, it depends on whether the buying momentum can continue to push ZEC to break upward again.
Wen Jie thinks as long as it doesn't fall below 1220, it can rebound anytime. You can enter long positions in the 1220-1240 range, wait for the rebound, take steady profits at 1265, aggressively hold until 1290, and stop losses promptly if it breaks below 1210 #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 $BTC dropped further tonight, Binance spot just hit 77,620, the new low in the past 24 hours today, now around 77,640, down 0.47% in 24h, retracing 1,250 dollars from the morning high of 78,878.
$ETH is still holding at 2,280, up 0.6% in 24h. Interestingly, Binance ETH funding rate finally flipped from negative to +0.0059%, BTC is +0.0099%.
swolecharts reports that since UTC 0 today, the total liquidations across the network reached 56.4 million USD, with longs at 21.3 million accounting for 38%. In the afternoon, shorts still accounted for 68%, but the recent hours' decline started to liquidate longs.
BTC liquidated 25.6 million in the past 24 hours, 156% more than the previous 24 hours' 9.99 million, but the largest single liquidation was still Aster's 1.93 million short in the morning.
My view is that ETH funding rate just turned positive but the price stopped rising, indicating that the contract longs chasing in are not spot. If BTC can't hold 77,600, there might be another round of long liquidations when the US stock market opens tonight.Almost $1B in stablecoins left the market in 24 hours, yet $BTC only slipped 0.4% to $77,600. The bounce stalled at $78,800 and has been fading since. Less cash in the system usually means weaker rallies, so $76,300 is the level I'm watching. Does a quiet price on a big outflow look like calm to you, or like a delay?BTC and ETH bulls remain crowded, while ZEC moves in the opposite direction!
OKX's latest 1-hour account data shows a clear divergence: BTC long-short ratio rises to 2.23, with bulls accounting for about 69%; ETH is 2.09, with bulls around 67.6%. In contrast, ZEC's long-short ratio is only 0.80, with bears making up 55.6%.
Mainstream coins still have strong bullish sentiment, but ZEC has stronger bearish forces, indicating inconsistent market fund directions.
BTC spot price is about $78,002 (Coinbase, Beijing time 16:24).
My view: A high proportion of bulls does not mean the price won't fall; the more crowded the positions, the more you need to guard against reverse fluctuations. $XRP LONG SETUP
XRP is holding support. A confirmed breakout above $1.2520 could attract buyers.
Entry: 1.2490–1.2515
TP1: 1.2580
TP2: 1.2660
SL: 1.2440
Wait for confirmation before entry.#AMDQ3HeliosRevenue #StocksGoldSilverSelloff — here's the outlook.
S&P -3.42%, NASDAQ -4.12% 📉 Gold -2.8%, Silver -4.6% — metals retreating after record rally. Not crypto-only, it's broad risk-off.
Drivers: Hot Oct CPI 3.88%, 10Y yield near 4.95%, USD Index +1.2% to 106.7. Investors fleeing to cash (+44% positioning), pricing higher-for-longer Fed.
Outlook: Volatility elevated, watch FOMC Nov 5. Safe haven failing short-term as cash is king.
#StocksGoldSilverSelloff #SP500 #Gold #Silver #OKXOrbit #MarketPulse[Bought 28,603 ETH, the whale is betting on a bottom at $2294]
A single address spent $65.616 million in one day, accumulating 28,603.8 $ETH, with an average cost of $2294. Based on the current ETH price of about $2280–2295, this position is basically near the cost line. For the market, this means a substantial amount of capital is establishing a spot position in the current range.
If this buying continues or the address keeps accumulating when prices fall, the $2294 area could become a key cost zone to watch.
On October 29, ETH dropped about 4.5% in one day, hitting a low of $2179 on October 30 before gradually rebounding. Meanwhile, the ETH spot ETF saw a net outflow of $155.7 million on October 30, marking the fifth consecutive trading day of net outflows. The derivatives market showed no significant increase; the total market open interest is about $21 billion, and funding rates remain moderate overall.
This whale purchase sends a positive signal for ETH: despite ETF redemption pressure, large capital is willing to buy directly around $2300. I tend to view this as a phase bottoming signal, with short-term focus on whether the $2294 cost zone can hold and if $2320 can be retaken. A single $65 million purchase is not enough to reverse the trend, but if accumulation continues, this ETH rebound is more promising.$DOGE | SHORT SETUP
DOGE momentum remains weak. Losing $0.07520 could trigger further selling.
Entry: 0.07525–0.07545
TP1: 0.07490
TP2: 0.07450
SL: 0.07580
Wait for confirmation before entry.#AMDQ3HeliosRevenue The US has already switched to standard time, and the US stock market opening has changed to 22:30 Beijing time, one hour later than before. The release time of macro data has also been postponed accordingly. $BTC $ETH $SNDK On Tuesday, the US midterm elections will take place, with all House seats up for election and one-third of the Senate seats contested. The control of both chambers will directly affect market expectations for fiscal, regulatory, and AI policies. Wednesday is packed with key events. At 21:15 in the evening, the ADP employment data will be released, and the Treasury will also announce quarterly refinancing plans. The market is watching whether the bond issuance scale and long-term bond supply will be adjusted. Earnings reports are also concentrated, with results and guidance from companies like AMD, Qualcomm, and Arm directly influencing tech stock sentiment. The highlight on Friday at 21:30 is the October nonfarm payroll report. Besides new jobs added, attention will be on the unemployment rate, wage growth, and revisions to previous data. If the data significantly deviates from expectations, it will directly disrupt the market's judgment on the Fed's future interest rate path. Volatility will not be low this week; manage your positions well and avoid betting on direction before data releases. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The valuation debate of Palantir essentially boils down to whether the commercialization growth rate can sustainably outperform the "expensive" label.
The company is scheduled to release its Q3 earnings after the U.S. market closes on November 2 (around 6 AM Beijing time on November 3). Q2 was already very strong: revenue of $1.935 billion, up 93% year-over-year; U.S. commercial revenue of $764 million, up 149% year-over-year; total commercial revenue of $945 million, up 110% year-over-year; GAAP and adjusted EPS both at $0.41; Rule of 40 reached an impressive 155%. The company guided Q3 revenue between $2.16 billion and $2.164 billion, with full-year revenue around $8.15 billion; street expectations are roughly $2.2 billion in revenue and EPS near $0.41. $PLTR closed at $184.11 on Friday, still some distance from its 52-week high, with widely divergent bullish and bearish target prices—the high growth is already reflected in the numbers, the difference lies in the consensus on whether the "expensive" valuation is justified. $xPLTR rose intraday.
Do you think tonight's earnings are more likely to "exceed growth expectations again and lift valuation," or "open high and close low to realize valuation pressure"? #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 $PLTR $xPLTR An Orbit user shared a screenshot showing over 1200u in xp earnings, a figure more convincing than any promotional slogan🙀 What truly deserves attention is not "how much was earned," but that xp is transforming from points into a redeemable asset certificate—the USDT in the prize pool can be spent directly, meaning holding xp is no longer just about participation but a claim on the prize pool. There is a structural change easily overlooked here: xp can now buy US stocks on-chain, meme coins, and spot gold, and there are even contract trading options. In other words, a single unit of xp is embedded with multiple asset curves, and its value is no longer determined by a single scenario but by the depth of use across the entire ecosystem. When a type of points begins to carry stocks, commodities, and derivatives, it ceases to be mere points and becomes quasi-currency. I believe the market is underestimating this identity transformation. Most people still view xp through the "freebie" lens, focusing on short-term quantity fluctuations, unaware that controlling xp within a certain range can stably secure prize pool distributions—this is a supply discipline, not luck. The volatility logic of mainstream assets like $BTC and $ETH does not apply here; xp's scarcity comes from rule design, not computing power or staking. A negative example illustrates this well: a user’s 400xp $xSNDK position once rose above 1800xp and could have been scaled up accordingly, but a single sharp drop immediately reverted it to the original state😹 During the same period, if it had been $AAPL, the drawdown would not have been so severe. This reveals a second-order effectA whale suddenly took a heavy position in $ZEC, an action quite astonishing!
They bought 3,052 ZEC at once, spending about 3.8 million USD, then opened a 2x leveraged long position of 8,000 ZEC, with a total nominal position value reaching 10.16 million USD.
With both spot and futures positions, it's clear they are betting on the future trend of ZEC. As a veteran privacy coin, this sudden large move by the whale is definitely worth noting.
However, a large purchase does not guarantee the market will rise; the subsequent trend still needs to be observed. When $BTC approaches the rolling low, I pay more attention to the next line of defense rather than rushing to find reasons for a rebound.
Kraken quotes around $77,539, with the rolling 24-hour low around $77,500. This low only indicates the trading range and does not mean a strong support has been established. jdripstar considers the area near $76,000 as an important high-cycle observation point and around $81,600 as resistance that needs to be reclaimed; these are his technical judgments, not indicators I have independently recalculated.
My personal market view is to first watch the loss or gain of the lower boundary: if the hourly close falls below and the rebound fails to recover, I will pause the idea of buying the rebound; only if there is a complete process of probing down, recovering, and retesting to hold, will I reassess the support. Before a true recovery above, I still treat the rebound as a correction, not directly projecting it as a main upward trend.
The current price is still some distance from the lower observation point, so there is no need to rush to pick a market answer. I will control the number of trial-and-error attempts and will not add positions to support a judgment that has not yet been established. If the lower boundary is tested, do you value a quick recovery more, or a close that holds after a retest? This is just for exchanging views and does not constitute investment advice.Don't think the divergence between capital and the market is a bottom signal; this is basically US capital completely pulling the plug and running, combined with miners unable to cover costs and forced to dump, creating a chain trap. Now the on-exchange liquidity is basically dried up, it's all existing funds playing the boiling frog game. Anyone trying to guess the bottom at this critical moment is a pure fool.
Look at $BTC, Bitcoin: domestic US capital has completely stopped supporting it. The day the ETF dumped over 600 million USD is ironclad proof. Even more disgusting are the miner data: October revenue hit an eleven-month high, but revenue per unit of computing power plummeted by 17.5%. The sharp drop in single output means miners' costs have surged in this high-interest environment. To pay electricity bills, they could become the fiercest dumping force at any time.
Look at $ETH, Ethereum: still a hopeless follower that can't get back on track. Without US capital propping up Bitcoin, Ethereum will only fall harder. The ecosystem has no new highlights, no capital support, and it panics at the slightest market weakness. Keep your hands off and don't catch the falling knife.
Look at $XAUT, Gold: it is the only reasonable place in the current macro chaos. Inflation remains sticky, non-farm payroll data is about to disappoint, high interest rate expectations are firmly suppressing risk assets, and both safe-haven funds and central bank buying are hiding in gold. Its certainty is far stronger than in the crypto world.
In summary, this is not a divergence at all; it is a double squeeze caused by US capital retreat and miner selling pressure. Don't catch the market before the non-farm payroll data is released. Hold your hands, endure this clearing wave, and only if you survive will you have the right to pick up chips. #美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 The withdrawal wave did not crush Binance, but institutions have taken a wait-and-see stance first.
According to Odaily Planet Daily, Binance saw a net outflow of about $7 billion in the past 24 hours. The withdrawal wave after the hacker incident did not overwhelm the platform. More importantly, most institutional funds remained inactive and did not follow the trend to withdraw.
This is judged as a divergence between bulls and bears, with clear short-term bearish pressure, but panic has not spread. The implications for traders are straightforward: first, the ability to process withdrawal requests normally indicates that spot and stablecoin reserves can hold up in the short term, so chasing rumors to dump assets is likely to backfire; second, the $7 billion net outflow is a real capital migration, some of which will settle on-chain and on other exchanges, leading to a revaluation of the trust premium for centralized platforms.
BNB is under short-term pressure. The key is to watch whether net outflows converge in the coming days and whether large institutional redemptions follow. Institutional inactivity is currently the most important stabilizing signal; if net outflows continue to expand, sector risk appetite will decline accordingly.
Scenario one: net outflows converge, institutions remain inactive, and BNB pressure eases. Scenario two: net outflows expand, large institutional redemptions follow, and BNB faces pressure in sync with $BTC.
Are you more concerned about net outflow convergence or institutional redemptions following up? $ETH has been acting a bit strange these past two days: previously, ETH was the weakest, but the day before yesterday, right after the market had just gone through a round of liquidation, ETH's price actually rose despite funds pulling out.
ETH recovered from 2170 to above 2250, making it the strongest in the market. 2280 was originally a strong resistance, but it has already been broken today.
I'm quite surprised because its spot ETF saw a net outflow of 184 million the day before yesterday, meaning institutions are clearly exiting. On-chain strength combined with ETF weakness—this divergence either means new money is quietly accumulating at the bottom or it's a prelude to a pump-and-dump.
$SOL is still hovering between 93–96, with a weaker recovery than ETH, but on-chain adoption hasn't stopped. I think SOL is fundamentally strong but was oversold; when risk appetite returns, it should lead. For now, neither chasing nor cutting losses.
The reason it’s not rising now is because ETFs are pulling out, treasury funds are trapped, and the 30-day -21.5% damage hasn’t healed yet. RSI is at 29.5, the lowest in the pool, and the price is just 2.4% above the floor.
$OKB currently has no independent momentum and is considered a defensive position.
Yesterday, Mr. Xu posted that over a year ago they implemented automated penetration testing based on large models. When competitors have issues, they talk about security, and their marketing timing is very precise, which the market responds well to.
Today, OKB rose 3%, standing back above the 7-day moving average at 112 and the 20-day moving average at 113.2, reclaiming the position lost last Friday. The uptrend remains, with the next hurdle at the 30-day moving average of 117.4.Before opening a position, don’t rush to ask whether the market will rise.
First, ask yourself three questions:
1. If my judgment is correct, how much can I earn?
2. If my judgment is wrong, how much will I lose?
3. After deducting trading costs, does this trade still have an advantage?
Assuming a trade has a 40% chance of making 300 USDT profit and a 60% chance of losing 100 USDT.
The theoretical expected return is:
40% × 300 − 60% × 100 = 60 USDT.
But this is just a calculation based on assumptions and does not represent actual trading results.
A good trade doesn’t win every time, but calculates profit, risk, and cost clearly before opening a position.The stablecoin leader's earnings report is not about "whether there is growth," but whether profits can keep up after market share declines.
Circle will release its Q3 report and hold a conference call at 8 AM Eastern Time on November 4. In Q2, USDC ended with about $73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year, with revenue plus reserve income around $701 million, net profit of $48 million, adjusted EBITDA of $143 million, diluted EPS of $0.18, and an official market share of about 27%. By the end of October, the circulating supply was roughly between $70 billion and $72.3 billion, accounting for just over 20% of the total stablecoin market. Wall Street estimates Q3 revenue at about $797 million and EPS around $0.40. $CRCL closed at $72.54 on Friday, significantly below the early October high; $xCRCL is also under pressure, as the stablecoin narrative shifts from expansion to realization.
Do you focus more on whether USDC can regain market share, or on profit margins and guidance first? #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ $CRCL $xCRCL The biggest recent impact on the market has to be the midterm elections, which will directly affect the US stock market and
$BTC
trends!
The probability of the Democrats regaining control of both chambers is far ahead, and the market has already priced in this expectation!
The key focus now is whether the Senate's control can be clearly determined by the morning of November 4th. The baseline scenario is the Democrats taking the Senate; the bigger trade on expectation divergence is if the Republicans hold the Senate.
Scenario 1: Democrats take both the House and Senate, currently the highest probability at about 71%.
Note here: a Democratic sweep of Congress mainly benefits clean energy, photovoltaics, and energy storage sectors. For AI infrastructure stocks like MU, SNDK, STX, VRT, and CEG, this mostly means short-term valuation and regulatory sentiment shocks. The AI capital expenditure trend will not end immediately because of one election.
Scenario 2: Democrats take the House, Republicans hold the Senate, current probability about 24%, which I also consider the most favorable outcome for market stability.
Historically, the market tends to like this "neither side can mess with the other" structure. According to Morgan Stanley statistics, under a Republican president with a divided Congress, the S&P 500's average historical gain one year after midterms is about 23%, but this can only be used as historical reference and not directly applied!
Scenario 3: Republicans hold both the House and Senate, probability only about 6%, but this is the most unexpected result with the greatest market impact.
Since the market has heavily priced in a Democratic victory, if Republicans hold both chambers, financials, energy, AI, and crypto sectors may see a rapid catch-up rally.$SNDK SNDK 现在这个画面挺有意思，多头扎堆，但盘面已经先一步跳水。
多空比直接干到 7.6 以上，八成多账户都站在多头这边，看着一片看多；可价格从高点 1198.9 一路砸下来，现在落到 1159 附近，短期均线全部反压。资金费率大部分时间维持在正区间，偶尔插针负费率，说明之前多头一直愿意付利息扛单，只是这波扛不住了。
消息面上还有机构下调目标价，给本来就松动的情绪再加一刀。这种“全市场都在多”的局面，往往最容易来一波集中洗盘。不是说多头一定错，但当绝大多数人站一边的时候，就要小心主力借情绪收割。
能不能稳住，就看低点 1150 这一线守不守得住；守不住，一堆追高多单估计要被一波带走。
个人观点，不够成投资建议$SPCX Why has Rocket been continuously falling?
Essentially, it is now just an election gamble ticket. Musk is fully backing Trump, and Trump has also stated he will protect Musk from Democratic investigations.
Conversely, if the Republicans lose this election and the Democrats take power, Musk will become a key target. Subsequently, a series of investigations may be launched: Tesla subsidies, SpaceX government contracts, qualification compliance, all will be dug up and re-examined 💥
Capital is very smart, fleeing early to avoid risk. The market highs keep moving lower, rebounds lack volume, and currently no buyers are willing to take over.
The best strategy now is to wait and see, wait for the election results. Consider going long once positive news is realized; if the results are below expectations, there is still room for further decline!Seeing that some listed companies keep buying Bitcoin, I'm quite curious to dig into their accounts. The announcements of coin purchases look lively, but buying with spare cash versus borrowed money creates very different pressures during holding. Just looking at the buying actions doesn't calculate the long-term expectations.
I don't plan to speed up my own regular investments, and the company's financing channels aren't available for me to use. Rather than focusing on how much they buy next time, I want to hear the management talk about: if Bitcoin stays sideways for a long time, how do they plan to bear the cost of this money?On the first day of BNB withdrawals, 3.64 billion funds moved significantly, but the winners were not exchanges, rather cold wallets. OKX and Hyperliquid only got scraps, with the remaining 3 billion users choosing to "self-custody," a trust crisis more fatal than price drops.
BNB is currently stuck at the 200-day moving average between 690-700, with resistance zones at 730-760 above. On-chain narratives are weak, valuation is propped up by capital operations, the short-term shadow of hackers remains, and the 700 level could be breached at any time.
HYPE rode a wave of hype, but don’t take it seriously. It’s more like an emotional beneficiary; fundamentals still depend on whether Hyperliquid can enter the compliant US stock market—Druckenmiller’s investment in TradeXYZ is the real positive news.
OKB is stable, pulling back to the 7-day and 20-day moving averages through subsidies, standing back at 112-113, with the next target at the 30-day moving average of 117.4. It’s the strongest in the CeFi sector, but don’t chase highs; defense levels are the real skill.$OKB #AMDQ3HeliosRevenue USDT – TRADE SETUP
Direction: SHORT BIAS
Entry: $111.94
Target 1: $111.00
Target 2: $110.00
Target 3: $108.50
Stop Loss: $113.50
Market Insight: OKB is facing selling pressure. Monitor resistance and market volume.Seeing this message, my first reaction was: this feels familiar from the last round. Once crypto is put into the narrative of "bypassing traditional financial restrictions," some in the circle feel that its value is being recognized, but I tend to think that those doing legitimate business might face an additional barrier.
This time, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu proposed using cryptocurrency to circumvent potential bank sanctions, which the central bank quickly opposed. The CEOs of Addressable and Orbs also warned that such statements could invite extra scrutiny from overseas exchanges and banks, damaging the local Web3 ecosystem's reputation. This refers to potential sanctions and should not be directly interpreted as sanctions already being implemented.
My judgment is that this is somewhat negative for the local ecosystem, not a benefit of "more crypto adoption." Unlike the previous round's pure debate on decentralization, this time the industry has put forward specific institutional demands: regulatory sandboxes, licenses aligned with MiCA and FATF travel rules, and access to banking services. For the industry to move forward, it depends on business continuity, not louder slogans.
If such statements really bring extra scrutiny, then legitimate teams might also bear higher compliance costs, which is my concern. Viewed in the cycle, I prefer to see this as a stress test for industry implementation rather than a new demand. I will next watch for substantive progress on banking access and regulatory frameworks, not political statements as adoption rates.The first batch of active ETFs has started building positions and is expected to be listed as early as the end of the month
Just now, someone shared news in the group, and the group members were discussing it quite enthusiastically. The first batch of 18 active ETFs raised over 34.2 billion, and those moving quickly have already started building positions.
The progress of these off-exchange active products is indeed quite fast, clearly aiming to attract long-term settled funds, with a very clear overall layout strategy.
At the current pace, it is expected that they can be listed on the exchange as early as the end of this month. At that time, all investors will be able to trade, and various types of medium- and long-term funds will have a new formal channel.
Looking at the market, $ETH is currently at 2,287.21 USDT. Nearby, $BTC is trading flat, while $ZEC is slightly bullish.
Just take a quick look at these new off-exchange developments. Everyone should manage their position sizes well, hold onto their chips steadily, and definitely avoid reckless moves. ethereum:0x249130f5e2dd4cf278180c0df8273f3592ad1247 will fully replay the early impact Bitcoin had on miners.
The first subsidy was exactly the key that created today's Bitcoin.
Miners chase rewards. Hashrate grows accordingly. Security is locked in.
Now, the first subsidy is shrinking.
SpiderPool, F2Pool, AntPool, ViaBTC, and Luxor have already started mining ethereum:0x249130f5e2dd4cf278180c0df8273f3592ad1247 as a second subsidy.
The same block.
The same machines.
Extra pay.
No protocol changes needed.
History is repeating itself.
The energy math has begun to shift.
#比特币BIP-110分叉停滞，矿工支持不足
#比特币 Binance's over 6 billion yuan hole didn't break through $BTC; 78,000 and above is considered sealed, but the ETF saw a $643 million outflow on Friday, the largest single-day outflow since June. The price is holding, but money is withdrawing, and the panic index is only 37[reference:1]. On the $ETH side, some are quietly buying; the spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $185 million yesterday, with BlackRock's ETHA alone taking in $151 million. The price is hovering around 2270, and some started picking up when the ETF was withdrawing.
The A-shares market is doing its own thing today; the ChiNext Index closed up 1.87%, with a turnover of 1.79 trillion yuan, increasing by over 100 billion. AI video and media sectors hit multiple daily limit-ups, Mango Excellent Media was locked at the limit, securities firms Guojin and Pacific Securities also hit the limit, and the liquor sector followed to boost the market, with over 130 stocks hitting the daily limit.
On the US stock side, last Friday the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index just took a 7.2% hit, Intel crashed 28% in one day, $NVDA dropped over 4%, and pre-market futures tonight are trying to recover. S&P and Nasdaq futures rose at least 0.4%, but whether they can fully recover remains to be seen.$BTC is stuck below 78000 again, with the 7-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages all pressing down on it. What kind of stabilization is this pretending to be? $ETH is even worse, with funding rates turning negative and open interest dropping 3.47% in 24 hours, long positions liquidated for $32.5 billion.
ETH crashes first, BTC will follow sooner or later. This is a fake stabilization, not a pullback. BTC funding rate is still positive but not extreme, bulls are holding on hard; ETH shorts are secretly adding positions, retail investors are getting squeezed painfully.
Don’t bottom-fish, wait for the direction. Last time I bottom-fished ETH on a funding rate divergence, I got buried badly. This time I’m not catching a falling knife.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ #加密行业协同守护资产安全 BITCOIN HOLDS 78,000 USD AHEAD OF US MIDTERMS: IMPACT ON BTC AND ZEC
BTC stabilized near 78,000 USD as liquidity held steady before US midterm election results. Large caps diverged, led by ZEC climbing 3% to 1,280 USD, ETH reclaiming 2,300 USD, and BNB at 713 USD. The incoming vote determines the regulatory path of the CLARITY Act governing US crypto market oversight.
DYOR.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#Nhà phát hành stablecoin như Tether đã đóng băng hơn 1,567 triệu USD USDT $BTC MicroStrategy bought another 811 coins, but this time the money wasn't used for trading crypto
Just saw the news, Strategy bought 811 bitcoins last week, now holding a total of 849,327 coins. Many people saw this and started shouting bullish.
To be honest, Beichen says, these 811 coins are only worth $63 million, and with 849,000 coins in hand, the weekly increase is less than one-thousandth.
More importantly, what did they do this time: sold 1.18 million shares of MSTR stock, raised $164 million, then spent $208 million to repurchase preferred shares, and finally only got 811 bitcoins. In other words, more than half of the money raised through financing was not used to buy coins but to repurchase preferred shares.
This is not a signal to increase holdings, but a signal to shrink. Previously, MicroStrategy bought thousands to tens of thousands of coins per week, now only 811 coins, and they have to sell stocks to raise money and repurchase preferred shares to stabilize the stock price — the company itself knows this is not the time to be aggressive.
Looking at the market again. Bitcoin fell from 81,000 to 76,300, now at 77,700, rebounded for three days but hasn't stood back above 78,800. The long-short ratio is 2.1, retail investors are still mostly bullish.
Beichen's idea: don't chase longs at 77,700. Light short positions can be taken on a rebound to 78,500-78,800, with a target first at 77,000, and if broken, look at 76,300. When it stands above 80,000, then talk about bulls again
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Gold at $3900, do you still dare to bottom-fish?
Hook (50 words):
A 3.5% plunge on Friday hit an 8-month low. Do you think safe-haven assets failed? Wrong. Gold isn’t failing as a safe haven; it’s being used to cover positions. Today’s rebound to 3900—is it a flight for safety or a buy-in?
First, the surface: Friday’s big bearish candle smashed through the 4000 and 3975 levels, bottoming at 3870. On Monday, oil prices crashed 3%, easing inflation worries, so gold caught a breather, rebounding to 3900-3910.
Look at the candlestick: RSI at 27-32, oversold. Some in the group chat say, “Gold’s bottomed, buy!”
Bro, oversold doesn’t mean bottomed. I heard that in 2022 and in 2013 too.
First thing: Why did gold crash? Not because safe-haven failed, but due to a liquidity crisis.
Tech stocks plunged Friday, leveraged funds got margin calls, selling whatever they could. Gold has the best liquidity, so it got hit first.
This is called "safe-haven assets not acting safe in a real crisis"—because it becomes an ATM.
You buy gold to hedge risk, but when risk hits, it falls harder than stocks.
Heartbreaking? That’s the market’s dark humor.
Second thing: The Fed has no intention to save you.
October meeting held rates at 3.75%-4.00%, with two votes supporting a hike. Q3 GDP 3.4%, core PCE 3.1%, CPI high.
Market prices a 73-75% chance of a rate hike in December.
In plain terms: Money in the bank earns interest, why buy non-yielding gold?
10-year real yield at 2.90%, dollar index 101.5. These two numbers won’t drop, so gold can’t rally.
Don’t expect a "rate cut to save gold" anytime soon.
Third thing: Technically, two words—bearish.
Price far below 20-day MA 4090, 50-day MA 4270, 200-day MA. Friday’s big bearish candle broke support; 4-hour chart shows lower highs and lower lows.
Monday’s rebound near 3920 was capped—that level turned from support to resistance.
Mainstream TradingView view: sell the rally.
No daily close above 3980-4000, no reversal talk.
You’re not bottom-fishing; you’re halfway up the mountain.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
Bulls:
- RSI oversold, short-term rebound demand
- Oil price drop eases inflation, slight positive
- Central banks’ long-term gold buying demand remains
- Support at 3870-3880
Bears:
- Fed hawkish, 75% chance of December hike
- Real yield 2.90%, high opportunity cost holding gold
- Complete bearish technical structure, all MAs suppressing
- This week’s ISM, nonfarm payrolls, midterms will increase volatility
- Just broke support Friday, overhead trapped positions
Key levels:
Resistance above: 3920 → 3950-3960 → 3980-4000 (watershed for bias reversal)
Support below: 3880-3870 → 3820-3800
Strategy:
Primary: prioritize shorting the rebound.
Wait for rebound to 3920-3950, then short lightly on signs of stagnation. Stop loss above 3970-3980, targets 3880 → 3870 → 3820-3800.
Long on oversold? Only short-term.
If 3870-3880 stabilizes (long lower shadow + volume surge bullish candle), try light long positions with stop loss below 3860, targets 3920 → 3950. Cut decisively at resistance, don’t get attached or fantasize.
When you bought gold, you thought it was a "hero in chaotic times."
But when chaos came, it was the first sold for cash.
$BTC $ETH $XAU I've always been puzzled: Aren't stablecoins supposed to be inherently tied to the US dollar? When we transfer funds back and forth, we mostly use $USDT and $USDC, as if this has nothing to do with other currencies.
Then Zhao Changpeng came out and said that more countries will realize that issuing stablecoins in their own currency can boost demand for their currency and also help increase demand for government bonds. The US dollar has already taken a big lead.
To translate: stablecoins are not just tools for transfers, but also channels to help governments sell bonds. The US dollar got a head start on this path, and other countries are now trying to catch up.
I'm curious, when a bunch of local currency stablecoins really come out, will we have more choices, or just more exchange rates to keep track of?$HYPE started accumulating from 91 until now,
so it's basically starting to be profitable. To be honest,
since the large-scale unlocking last month, I've been short.
No matter how it fluctuates in between,
I believe it will eventually decline.
There are still about 78% of the tokens not unlocked.
You see, that mainstream coin only has about 20% circulating.
So it's only possible to pump it now,
after the market has more coins, it won't be possible to pump it up.
$CAP is the same, although its market cap is much lower.
But only about 15% is circulating,
once the market circulation and tokens increase, it will be hard to control the price.
It's the usual tactic, pumping hard while tokens are concentrated now.
What happens after, I think about it.
#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？ 最脆弱的一环从来不是没人赚钱，而是赚到的那部分人以为热闹会一直续上。 你看到的"1200u 到手"，到底是奖励在发钱，还是有人在替后面的人定价？ 我先把镜头拉近一点。Orbit 上有人晒出用 xp 预测拿到的奖励，超过 1200u；发帖的女生当时手里只有 400xp，随手开了 $xSNDK 的买单，几天没看，居然挤进 25u 档的奖池，排名一度在 800 附近。听起来像捡到糖，但她自己也承认，最难受的是拿 1800xp 在 1300 的位置追 $SNDK，结果被精准扎了一下，气得胃疼 😹 这里的落差感很关键。表面上是"xp 也能换钱"，真实承接却分成两层：一层是奖池里的名次和分配，另一层是标的本身的价格节奏。前者靠参与度和规则，后者靠波动和仓位。很多人看到别人到账，会默认这套玩法稳，但奖励到账和交易盈利根本不是同一件事。奖池是概率游戏，追单是风险游戏，混在一起看就容易上头。 再看跨市场联动这一层。$SNDK 这类标的的情绪，和闪迪业绩超预期、宣布拆股后股价跌逾 13% 是同一根线：好消息被提前计价，兑现时反而成了卖点。这个传导会先打在风险偏好上，再传到山寨和题材交易的节奏里。BTC、Zhao Changpeng dropped a line: More countries will realize that issuing local currency stablecoins can increase demand for their own currency, thereby boosting demand for government bonds. The US dollar has already taken a significant lead in this regard. It sounds like an industry call, but it's actually a straightforward mechanism breakdown.
The chain he describes is: a country issuing a local currency stablecoin is equivalent to creating an always-online circulation scenario for its own currency. Foreigners who want to hold it must first exchange for the local currency; with demand for the local currency, the buyer base for government bonds also expands. Here, stablecoins are not payment tools but distribution channels for sovereign debt.
This explains why the US dollar leads. $USDT and $USDC have pushed the dollar onto every chain, every exchange, and every cross-border scenario, thus adding a batch of buyers for US Treasury bonds who only care about liquidity, not interest rates. Other countries have noticed this but lack such a network.
Therefore, it is highly likely that a batch of local currency stablecoins will emerge later: Hong Kong dollar, dirham, real, etc., initially operating within their own national regulatory frameworks before discussing cross-border use. But the pace won't be fast; the core issue is not technology but the willingness to give up some transparency in currency issuance.
For traders, this news does not constitute a directional signal in the short term. What’s worth following is the infrastructure layer—public chain assets like $BNB that support stablecoin issuance and settlement will be the first to feel changes in on-chain stablecoin supply.
One question remains: if every country issues local currency stablecoins, will competition among stablecoins turn into a contest over who has lower inflation and whose debt is more favored?#Is it a bull market pullback or a reversal crash?
AI stocks, are they really about to collapse? Or is the next bull market brewing?
In October, the Nasdaq 100 index lost over $2.5 trillion in market value.
The market is starting to question:
Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta have invested hundreds of billions building AI infrastructure, when will it truly turn into profit?
An interesting phenomenon is happening in the US stock market now:
* AI investment is still ongoing.
* Tech giants' capital expenditures are increasing.
* Investors are beginning to demand real profits, not just grand stories.
* The market's tolerance for AI valuations is declining.
I believe the long-term trend of the AI industry hasn't changed, but AI stocks don't mean they will always rise.
What really matters next is not who tells the best AI story, but who can turn AI into cash flow.
Which category do you think the current AI sector belongs to?
A. AI bubble is about to burst
B. Normal pullback, bull market continues
C. Industry is fine, but valuations are too high
#USStocks #AI #Nasdaq #NVDA #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
My US stock pre-market diary: Oil prices first took a hit, is tech catching a breath?
Pre-market futures are all green, Nasdaq futures up 0.56%, S&P up 0.32%, Dow up 0.39%.
But the real big news isn't in the stock indexes, it's in crude oil: WTI directly fell below 100, with a single-day drop of over 4%. Iran's "seven-day plan" has been streamlined to two days and can be implemented; once the diplomatic channel opens, oil prices first suppressed last week's inflation anxiety a bit.
Where is the money coming back from, and where is it going?
Semiconductors are the vanguard of the rebound. SOXL is up 3.44% pre-market, with a volume of 321 million, ranking first on the board; Micron up 1.41%, SK Hynix up 3.58%, SanDisk up 1.30%, Nvidia at 206.45 up 0.89%.
But note, this is an oversold rebound after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 7.2% last week and SOXL dropped 24% in a single day, not a trend reversal. Nasdaq futures only rose 0.56%, indicating that funds have not fully returned to tech, but are selectively rebounding in the most beaten-down storage and semiconductor stocks.
Mergers and acquisitions are in conflict.
MRVL pre-market once fell 1.33% to 193.78, LITE even more, down 3.06% to 815. It's a full stock acquisition; buyers dilute, sellers pre-collect premiums, and the pre-market movement is "settle accounts first, then talk." MRVL later pulled back some, but the merger arbitrage pressure remains, so don't rush to take sides.
The oil price drop is an assist, the semiconductor rebound is self-rescue, but market doubts about AI spending have not dissipated.