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The $FIL FIL genesis unlock has finally finished running, and the daily new selling pressure has been cut by 75%. This is equivalent to suddenly closing three-quarters of the huge floodgate that used to hang over our heads every day.
The funniest thing is the group of shorts on the market; their positions are not small, and most are still profitable, but their average entry price is all squeezed around 0.95. Now the current price is stuck here, and if the market makers pull up a little spike, the shorts at 0.95 will have to collectively stampede to close their positions. The supply-side gate is closed, and the shorts' costs are so close above; chasing shorts now is really fueling a short squeeze.
#FIL
$FIL
👇ETF has had net inflows for three consecutive days, yet the coin price has fallen back below 80,000. Do these two markets seem like they're each doing their own thing?
Yesterday, the spot ETF had another net inflow of $137 million, marking the third consecutive day. I casually checked OKX's price; the current price is 80,287, with a 24-hour low of 79,666, still hovering below 80,000.
The futures side is even more interesting. Open Interest is still $2.58 billion, and this drop barely caused any withdrawals. The fee rate is 0.035%, and almost no one is eager to go long.
My stance: don't treat the ETF's slow money as a bottom-fishing signal. Institutions will rebalance their portfolios as they see fit, and they will boost prices as they please. Below 80,000, I'll keep watching the show and won't add any long positions.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $GOOGL, why hasn't a 25% revenue growth alleviated concerns? Alphabet's Q3 revenue was about $127.6 billion, but below market expectations; net profit dropped from about $35 billion last year to about $26.2 billion, with earnings per share of $2.12 also impacted by equity investment losses. Revenue expansion and profit decline coexist, and the market will question the return on capital expenditure. If advertising and cloud growth improve cash flow and investment losses can be excluded, the fundamentals remain strong; if spending rises and profit margins continue to decline, I would lower the valuation. Why is the sentiment in the crypto community so cold around Bitcoin's $80,000 mark? Because Bitcoin's price no longer represents the account balances of most retail investors.
The core reason is that many people's main holdings are not in Bitcoin but in altcoins, which can drop 90% and then fall another 90%. Repeated crashes, unlocking, and chasing hot trends have drained not only confidence but also the principal needed to keep participating. Some people don't want to play anymore; they simply don't have the money to continue.
Those who remain are also less willing to pay up. Projects launch with fully diluted valuations of tens of billions of dollars before their products and revenues have proven themselves, selling future expectations to retail investors in advance. New narratives lack breakthroughs, old concepts are repackaged to keep issuing tokens, and Meme has become a zero-sum game of speed and information asymmetry. After several rounds of harvesting, people naturally don't want to easily carry the burden again.
Moreover, capital has more options now. Binance announced on October 15 that its tokenized US stock product bStocks has accumulated over $40 billion in trading volume, with assets under management exceeding $1 billion. This doesn't directly prove that altcoin funds have moved to US stocks, but it does indicate that US stock assets are competing for the same users' money and attention. When participating in US stocks becomes as convenient as buying crypto, why should crypto projects expect investors to keep paying for a story that hasn't yet been realized?
Adding macroeconomic uncertainty makes it even harder for capital to sustain high risk. The market isn't completely lacking liquidity; rather, there isn't enough incremental capital willing to flow into altcoins, and the limited funds are increasingly dispersed across more tokens.Someone asked me, since the contracts are at a discount, is it time to look for a downside? My answer is just one sentence: Hold on!
Let me first present the evidence. BTC perpetual contracts are trading at about a 0.04% discount relative to spot, with shorts dominating the contracts. On the other side of the spot order book, buy orders within ±1% are actually thicker than sell orders. Buyers are reaching out first; contracts are calling for shorts, spot is taking the bids—these are not the same play.
Now looking at positions. In the past day, BTC positions shrank by 1.26%, ETH by 0.75%, SOL by 1.69%, ZEC by 10.99%. The total network positions also shrank by 1.98% to 140.507 billion, but volume actually increased by 22.61% to nearly 198 billion. Volume up, positions down—more are exiting than entering, so I’m not calling a reversal.
But the short-term picture has changed flavor. In the last hour, BTC positions increased by 0.03%, SOL by 0.15%, ETH only shrank by 0.07%, ZEC only shrank by 0.03%. The four coins basically held steady, and the momentum of a collective pullback paused. BTC is still holding above 80,000, hovering around 80,110; SOL is also sticking close to 100 without letting go. The round number support hasn’t been lost, so buyers dare to keep their bids.
So here’s my plan: before tonight’s data release, I won’t chase shorts or bottom-fish. As long as buy orders remain thick above 80,000, I’ll hold my positions and wait for the discount to narrow. If bids thin out and 80,000 breaks, I’ll exit immediately—no stubborn holding!Today is October 29, 2026. Welcome to the 4th issue of the Old Wei Bitcoin Diary market commentary:
Last night, we were all watching the Federal Reserve's interest rate changes. Today, let's do an in-depth summary.
1. Interest Rate Path:
With ten votes in favor and two against, the rate was held steady in October. However, combined with the statements from Waller and Basset and the CME probabilities, the market is betting on a 25 basis point hike in December, and possibly a 50 basis point hike in January next year. The two dissenting votes came from extreme hawks within the Democratic camp—Cook (who has always opposed Trump) and Harker (who openly called for a "sharp rate hike"), reflecting that there are still hardline voices within the Democratic Party.
2. Two Major Federal Reserve Reforms:
First, the Fed will cancel forward guidance and no longer provide the market with a future interest rate path unless a crisis occurs. This effectively cuts off the "invisible power" of the past twenty-plus years, returning pricing power to the market and economic data;
Second, starting next fall, the number of voting meetings will be reduced. In 2027, there will be one meeting for discussion only without decision-making, and in 2028, there will be two meetings without even interest rate votes. On the surface, this is a schedule adjustment, but in essence, it reduces the Fed's short-term influence on financial markets.
3. Logic for the Crypto Circle:
Previously, the biggest uncertainty in cycles came from the Fed "turning hostile" and policy reversals. If the Fed truly transforms into a data-driven, less interventionist neutral institution, the market variables will be significantly reduced. Risk assets like cryptocurrencies and U.S. stocks will actually benefit from this loosening reform that returns pricing power to economic data and the market itself. In the long run, this is a "loosening" for risk assets. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Is the rebound before the Federal Reserve news a trend reversal or the last liquidity gathering before a waterfall drop?
My short positions are still open here, but honestly, it's not easy. On October 29, BTC is currently around 80,300 USDT, down 1.53% in 24 hours; ETH is about 2,325.55 USDT, down 1.90% in 24 hours. Both had intraday spikes followed by pullbacks, with BTC peaking at 81,788.56 and ETH at 2,391.55, indicating selling pressure remains above.
From the daily chart, BTC RSI(6) is 37.69, ETH is 31.19, both near short-term lows; however, both MACDs are still in a death cross, BTC's moving average structure is mixed, and ETH's supertrend remains bearish. Although there is net inflow of large orders, the trading volume is only about 49% of the 7-day average. I prefer to interpret this as a probe before the news rather than a clear reversal.
Before the Federal Reserve announcement, the market is most prone to liquidity sweeps both up and down. My short position size is not large; I am not betting on a one-sided waterfall drop. If the price continues to surge, I will keep room to cover and do T trades to reduce costs. What really matters is whether there is a volume-supported breakout or another failure after the spike.
The above is only market analysis and does not constitute investment advice. A quarter-end unrealized gain of $20.9 billion hits the books, yet no new grain is seen at the barn door—this is the divergence between the green shoots account and the actual receipts account.
An old farmer looks at the land by first checking the weather and then the soil moisture. That big holder hoarding Bitcoin crops will only reveal their Q3 financial report after the U.S. market closes on October 29, but the preliminary yield estimate is already laid out in the sun: a fair value gain on digital assets of about $20.9 billion. By October 4, about 848,000 Bitcoin crops were still in the field, and they had just repurchased approximately $176 million in preferred shares. What does this look like? Like standing on the ridge before harvest estimating the yield—tall stalks and heavy ears don’t mean the grains are already stored; a gust of wind can flatten the crop, forcing a recalculation of the green shoots on the books.
In the bull and bear seasons, during sowing you watch the water source, during harvest you watch the granary capacity, and in the cold winter you watch the soil fertility. The current rise in unrealized gains is like a sudden soaking rain during the grain-filling period—the landlord’s face lights up, but where the irrigation channels lead, whether the water cellar is filled, and whether the granary capacity expands—that’s the real story. Repurchasing preferred shares is like first filling in the old accounts of the water cellar to stabilize rent and morale; if the book gains continue to grow, financing methods might shift from short channels to long channels for water storage, and capital allocation will first focus on replenishing granary capacity, fixing fences, and saving seeds before expanding planting. No rush—if the accumulated temperature isn’t enough, early sowing will only rot the seedlings.
The linkage with the tokenized stock target is more like the grain tickets on the drying ground following the mother granary’s yield estimate. When the mother granary’s numbers rise, the drying ground gets lively; but grain tickets ultimately depend on actual receipts, settlement, and whether the irrigation channels have dried up. The $20.9 billion unrealized gain is chaff blown far by the wind during winnowing—not every grain falls into the sack. The tighter the linkage, the more people watch the soil moisture, and the easier it is to leave chaotic footprints on the ridge; the mid-to-long term focus should be on the financing irrigation channels and capital allocation seams, not the chaff stirred up by a gust of wind.
The $20.9 billion on the books isn’t millet—it’s green shoots that can be changed by the wind; once the financing irrigation channels change course, the first to suffer drought will always be the newly sown row. #strategyq3btcgains#Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady, December Rate Hike Disagreement Heats Up
After the FOMC dust settles, the market enters a bottoming and oscillating phase.
BTC found support after dipping to 79666, currently trading narrowly around 80210; ETH dipped to a low of 2292, now at 2322, with hourly volatility narrowing and volume significantly shrinking.
The unchanged interest rate is only a superficial result; the real pressure comes from the tug-of-war over December rate hike expectations.
The market is reluctant to make a unilateral bet, with both bulls and bears choosing to wait and see, resulting in a sideways consolidation pattern. The 20-day moving average still exerts downward pressure; this round is just a weak consolidation after a sharp drop, not a reversal.
Resistance at 80500 and 2335 is the first short-term barrier, while the lower lows serve as the defensive bottom line. The market will continue to fluctuate with upcoming inflation data.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK #Can SanDisk's storage business high growth continue? $BTC $SOL
"Last chance before the earnings report, rather than chasing after it takes off, better to position now.
The long-term logic is very strong: 15 institutions unanimously buy in, average target price 2205, the most optimistic sees 3000, the most conservative also gives 2000.
Short-term rhythm to watch: upper resistance first looks at the 1430-1500 range, below 1350 is the lifeline (moving average + dense chip area). If it falls below 1350, bulls will directly give up.
A reminder: after-hours earnings expected to have a 12% amplitude, profit and loss share the same source, don't over-leverage, set stop-loss properly!"$BTC contract longs are still crowded above 78,000, with liquidity below 80,000 pointing to the 79,700 area.
The contract market flavor is getting stronger. BTCUSDT is currently around $80,195.90, down 1.37% since UTC midnight, with a 24-hour range stretched to $79,666.90–$81,759. From a short perspective, this is not calm after a drop, but a liquidity battle where each rebound is pushed back: longs above are still hoping to recover, but the price never stabilizes.
The 1-hour MACD is still a death cross, DIFF at -216.02, green bars at -59.82; price is below the MA25 at $80,666.19, super trend pressure at $81,116.78 and maintaining downward. What worries me more is that current volume is only about 0.48 times the 7-hour average volume, so the rebound lacks sufficient volume support. The market seems to be sideways but is actually wearing down long patience.
The recent funding rate on the contract side is +0.0053%, with the next estimated at +0.0072%, meaning longs are still paying fees; the overall long ratio across accounts is about 68.96%, and top traders’ long ratio by position value is 67.33%. With longs crowded and positions increasing by 0.38% in the last hour, I’m more focused on whether stop-loss and liquidation liquidity below will be triggered in concentration.
I will not treat the short-term rebound as a trend reversal. $CT the end of the project with TVL over 1B but the Token is terrible, proving the project cannot develop long-term, holders of the CT Token do not benefit from anything from the project itself. Embedding Bitcoin into the load-bearing walls of a traditional portfolio with only a 2% reinforcement ratio—this is not just adding more positions; it's a structural test for the entire asset building. VanEck places stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin into the same overall blueprint, targeting a 2% allocation, allowing adjustments between 1% and 5%, and transferring the load through spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products; Franklin Templeton’s two products are more direct, initially about 95% U.S. stocks and 5% Bitcoin, then using stock dividends to perform a secondary casting for Bitcoin. On the surface, it looks like metal lines added to the facade, but in essence, it changes the load path.
As someone who deals daily with foundations, shear walls, and settlement joints, I don’t look at renderings—I focus on whether the force transmission is continuous. The white paper is just a design plan; what truly determines the project’s value is the underlying architecture, development capability, and long-term scalability. Here, Bitcoin is not a decorative component but an embedded energy-dissipating damper in the portfolio structure: small in proportion, yet simultaneously introducing volatility, liquidity, and correlation stress lines into the main body. The adjustable range of 1% to 5% is equivalent to leaving expansion joints in the structure—reasonable in design, but in construction, the biggest fear is it becoming an excuse for constant redesign. What really decides whether this building can stand is not just writing Bitcoin into the allocation table, but the spot custody, subscription/redemption mechanisms, rebalancing discipline, and emergency plans under extreme market conditions—these are the foundational base.
Franklin’s use of dividends to continue buying Bitcoin is more like transforming cash flow into a vertical load-bearing member: increasing short-term flexibility, but in the long term, tying the dividend recovery path to a single high-volatility asset. Multi-asset portfolios moving Bitcoin from the underground garage to the standard floors means traditional capital begins to acknowledge its structural function; but acknowledgment aside, construction quality must be inspected layer by layer. The market linkage of tokenized U.S. stocks acts like stress monitoring during building reinforcement—when the underlying assets tremble, token prices, trading depth, and arbitrage channels all amplify the cracks.
So, will a small Bitcoin allocation become standard practice? From the blueprint trend, it is evolving from a landscape feature into part of the equipment layer; from an engineering judgment, 2% is not a safety factor but the starting value triggering a full structural review. When dividend cash flow is transformed into a secondary casting channel for Bitcoin, this building is no longer a simple mixed-use structure but an experimental structure with its foundation staked on volatility. #vaneckfranklinbtcetfsGoogle lost $300 billion in market value overnight; the shock in this earnings report is not in revenue but in cash flow.
Revenue hit a record high of $127.58 billion but still fell short of expectations, and earnings per share also missed the mark. More glaringly, free cash flow turned negative to about -$9 billion in a single quarter, which is extremely rare for a company long regarded as a cash cow. Capital expenditures surged to $51.4 billion, setting a new record. The market is worried about a two-year AI spending black hole, and now it's on the table.
The only bright spot was the cloud segment, with quarterly revenue around $30.7 billion, up 103% year-over-year, proving for the first time that AI demand driven by Gemini is turning into revenue. But the cloud's doubling growth can't offset the weakness in search and YouTube ads.
The trouble lies in the most profitable search ads. AI chat continues to divert search share, and growth is said to rely on loosening keyword matching, effectively increasing advertiser charges to maintain revenue. Trading ecosystem health for the earnings report itself signals pressure.
Microsoft was much steadier the same night: revenue hit a record $92.3 billion, with Azure at $33.2 billion for the quarter, up 48% year-over-year. The signal is clear: it's not about who invests more, but who can first turn AI investment into profit.
After the earnings report, 19 accounts counter-trended by adding about $20.56 million in Google long positions, betting on a rebound from a wrong sell-off. Crypto was relatively resilient; $BTC held steady near $80,000, and $ETH stabilized in sync, but tech stock sell-offs still weighed on risk sentiment.
The $290 to $300 range will decide whether this is a wrong sell-off buying opportunity or the start of a valuation reset.The market will next focus on the US PCE inflation data and GDP growth performance. These two indicators may further influence the Federal Reserve's policy expectations, but the real determinant of market direction is not just the data itself, but how the market interprets them. 🔥 Three possible market scenarios: 🔴 Scenario 1: Inflation rebound If PCE exceeds expectations, US Treasury yields and the US dollar may continue to strengthen, tightening financial conditions further, and BTC and ETH could face greater correction pressure. 🟢 Scenario 2: Inflation cools down, economy remains resilient This is the combination risk assets prefer to see. If inflation gradually declines while GDP remains resilient, market confidence in a soft landing may strengthen, providing support to the crypto market. ⚠️ Scenario 3: GDP significantly slows Economic growth weakness may rekindle recession concerns and raise market expectations for future rate cuts. In the short term, BTC and ETH may not immediately rise, and risk-off sentiment could first bring about sharp volatility. 🎯 Trading focus: The Federal Reserve maintaining rates unchanged does not mean market risks have disappeared. What to watch next is the interplay between inflation, economic growth, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields. Don't just look at whether the data is bullish or bearish; also observe whether BTC can hold key support, whether ETH shows relative strength, and whether volume can confirm the direction. Wait for the market to provide answers before deciding to enter. Do not chase gains, nor blindly add positions due to short-term fluctuations. #FedKeepsRa$300 million locked assets matter more to me than celebrity titles. I judge that this news, following the stablecoin's move toward practical application, will strengthen sector sentiment but does not mean the price trend is confirmed. London stablecoin company OpenTrade appointed former Swift CEO Lazaro Campos as chairman and disclosed an annual trading volume exceeding $1 billion.
I have three rules for trends: look at the fundamentals, not the halo effect—locked assets carry more weight than appointment news, but scale does not equal asset quality; look at sustainability, not hype—only if subsequent business scale continues to grow will I raise my assessment of this sector; look for price confirmation, not substitute news for trend—the sentiment boost and trend establishment are two different things.
Trends are the best friend; I don't jump the gun based on a single news item. When encountering such stablecoin positives, do you now judge the trend by trading volume, moving averages, or business data?Seeing an exchange publish a proof of reserves with a reserve ratio over 100%, does that mean you can completely relax?
Don’t just focus on that percentage; you also need to see what it actually proves.
It’s like a store showing you its warehouse: the goods are indeed there, which is valuable information. But to understand the whole store’s situation, you also need to know how much debt it owes, whether the goods are collateralized, and when the inventory was taken.
Proof of reserves is the same. Some verify specific assets against corresponding user balances and even let you verify if your own balance is included. But which coins and which liabilities are covered must be checked in the report’s scope; you can’t just generalize it to mean "all company debts are covered."
Also consider timing: the asset status in the last snapshot doesn’t automatically represent the current moment.
When opening the report, look for four things first: the date of the statistics, covered assets, liability scope, and personal verification entry. Understanding these is more useful than just comparing who has the higher reserve ratio number.
Next article will discuss another easily misunderstood percentage: why does the Bitcoin market dominance rise while the coin price keeps falling?FOMC results announced, but BTC fell below $80,000. The market's real concern is not the unchanged interest rate.
The Federal Reserve officially announced the October interest rate decision early today.
The final vote was 10 to 2 to maintain the interest rate at 3.75% to 4%.
The result met market expectations.
But there is a detail worth noting.
Two officials actually supported a 25 basis point rate hike.
Moreover, the Fed upgraded its description of U.S. economic growth from solid to strong,
indicating that the U.S. economy still has considerable resilience.
The problem is that inflationary pressure has not completely disappeared.
The market is beginning to reassess the possibility of a rate hike in December.
BTC initially rebounded briefly but then fell below $80,000 again.
ETH and other altcoins also came under pressure.
What I think is most noteworthy this time is
that an unchanged interest rate does not mean monetary policy is easing.
If the economy remains strong but inflation does not come down,
the Fed has no reason to rush to cut rates.
For crypto assets that heavily rely on market liquidity,
the future trends of U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may be more important than this rate decision.
Do you think BTC is undergoing a shakeout before the bad news is fully priced in,
or is the market beginning to reprice the risk of rate hikes?
$BTC $ETH #聯準會維持利率不變，12月升息分歧升溫 The harshest reality in the market is: performance growth does not equal stock price increase, nor does it guarantee that risk assets will strengthen. Samsung's semiconductor business profits soared about 15 times year-on-year, but the actual performance was slightly below market expectations. Subsequently, BTC fell below $80,000 from above $81,700, triggering a chain liquidation in the crypto futures market, with a total liquidation amount of about $356 million, of which longs accounted for $205 million. What truly deserves attention is not just this drop, but the underlying macro logic: 🔹 The Federal Reserve holding steady does not mean interest rate pressure disappears. Market expectations for a rate hike in December rose from 76% a week ago to 86%. 🔹 U.S. Treasury yields broke through 5%, putting liquidity under pressure. As the yield on risk-free assets continues to rise, high-valuation tech stocks and crypto assets may face valuation reappraisals. 🔹 AI capital expenditure is impacting the crypto market. Chip companies' profits, AI infrastructure investments, long-term interest rates, and dollar liquidity are becoming key variables affecting BTC's short-term trend. Coupled with high leverage, even a slight expectation gap can trigger large-scale liquidations. What's more interesting is that despite market pressure, Bitwise still made a long-term forecast: Bitcoin could reach $1.6 million by 2036. Short-term macro pressure and long-term bullish narratives can coexist. The former determines how the market prices risk, while the latter bets on Bitcoin's growth potential over the next decade. My view: Do not treat long-term targets as short-term support, nor should you... I checked the community sentiment around noon and was a bit shocked: on the platform, 77% of votes on $PEPE are bullish, only 4% are bearish, with 140 related discussions in 24 hours. Such a one-sided sentiment is uncommon in a volatile market, indicating that consensus is already forming.
There's also a story going viral these days: a wallet spent $27 in April 2023 to buy 2.5 trillion PEPE, now worth $12 million. Although this wallet was later blacklisted by the developers and the coins can't move, it hasn't stopped this story from going viral across the internet.
Think about the logic of this spread: people aren't sharing "someone got stuck," but rather "$27 turned into $12 million." The core fuel of meme coins is this kind of wealth-creation narrative; every viral story drives traffic to the pool. What do retail investors see? "Maybe next time it will be me." The spread of this FOMO sentiment has appeared before every meme market rally in history.
Looking at the market coordination: the price is steady around 0.000005, up 12.68% in 7 days, up 83.78% in 90 days, consolidating at a high level but with strong support. Sentiment, stories, and price trends are all aligned now.
Some say that 77% bullish means the market is topping out. My view is the opposite: in the early to mid stages of a trend, rising sentiment is fuel; it’s only dangerous when everyone is talking about it and it’s on every street corner. Now? The spread is just getting started.#微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期
Microsoft $MSFT released its earnings report yesterday, overall beating expectations but not spectacularly.
Revenue was about $92.2 billion, up 19% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of $4.89, all better than expected.
Azure cloud business grew 48%, still the core growth engine; free cash flow declined year-over-year but remained positive.
After-hours stock price rose about 3%, a mild positive reaction, consistent with the expectation of "good data but high valuation."
Currently, I am bullish on Microsoft; compared to other tech stocks heavily investing in AI, its cash flow is more resilient, and cloud growth remains strong, making it a "relatively more stable" long position.
When selecting such tech stocks, pay attention to:
1. Don't just look at whether revenue and profit beat expectations; more importantly, how much free cash flow remains;
2. Changes in cloud business growth are more important than overall numbers;
3. Capital expenditure guidance is more sensitive than quarterly results.
If spending efficiency worsens or cloud growth slows, the stock price tends to react first.
Now, the focus on tech stocks has shifted from "how fast growth is" to "how long the cash can last." Actually, besides the earnings report and macro factors themselves, Wash's early morning remarks also laid the groundwork for Google's significant after-hours valuation adjustment.
In Wash's early morning speech, he clearly expressed concerns about AI capital expenditures, raising two key questions:
Is AI capital spending starting to become excessive?
Is the cost of financing beginning to constrain investment?
Wash does not believe the current AI investment boom is immune to high interest rates. His view basically confirms what I said earlier — macro factors determine whether your money is expensive or cheap, earnings reports determine whether investors are willing to pay for valuations, and the higher the interest rate, the less tolerant investors are of earnings reports when paying for valuations.
Through Wash's perspective, it is clear that his concern is that the scale of AI capital expenditures is growing larger, leading to stronger capital demand. With high macro interest rates, money becomes more expensive, and the market's demands on companies become increasingly strict, meaning investments must prove ROIC.
Just as Wash raised his concerns, Google's earnings report happened to hit the core of the problem, so it's no wonder Google's after-hours drop was so large. Compared to Amazon's stock price movement, it's truly a matter of timing and fate! #微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 Polarization! Strategy's old positions are profiting, new positions are deeply underwater🔥
$BTC stands above the Strategy cost line
Old positions support the price with profits, new positions are still underwater
Overall average holding cost is about $75,446
Early chips still have floating profits
But positions entered after 2025
Comprehensive cost $90,600, still deeply underwater
Strategy relies on issuing shares to finance BTC accumulation
Effectively carrying leverage
High-level chips have not yet been released
Stock price and financing pressure will increase
No additional positions were added last week
Holdings remain at 848,517 units
On paper, it looks profitable
But only old positions are holding the bottom
If the market can't rise
How much longer can old position profits hold?
How much longer must new positions endure?
Do you think this batch of high-level new positions has a chance to break even?
Personal record only, not investment advice
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 The Federal Reserve kept the interest rate at 3.75%~4.00% last night, but 2 out of 12 votes opposed on the spot, both demanding an immediate 25 basis point rate hike.
📌 There are three changes in this meeting:
1️⃣ The dissenting votes came from Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Mester; this is Cook's first time voting against.
2️⃣ After the meeting, the market pricing for a rate hike on December 9 rose to over 80%, up from about 76% a week ago.
3️⃣ Walsh said that in 2027, out of 8 meetings, only 7 will have rate votes, and there will be fewer statements between meetings.
⏰ Two key events tonight:
20:30 US Q3 GDP and September PCE, with core PCE expected to exceed 3% year-on-year.
21:15 European Central Bank announces its rate decision.
No rate hike ≠ easing. There was a hike just in September, and this time there are still 2 votes for a hike, indicating internal pressure towards tightening. With fewer statements between meetings, tonight's data will have a more direct impact on December pricing.
For those with small positions, volatility tends to increase around data releases; leveraged positions should watch liquidation prices carefully in advance.
Do you usually reduce your position before data releases, or wait for the results before making moves?
The above is personal opinion only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency asset prices are highly volatile; please be aware of the risks.
$BTC $ETH
#FederalReserve #MacroeconomicData #PCE"The 120% on the screen is just a number; 2.34% is the reality."
$PUMP over 50x, 0.004162→0.004262, +120.13%.
Don't be fooled by percentages. With 50x leverage, the underlying asset only rose about 2.40% to generate this 120% paper gain. Conversely: if the price falls about 2.34% from the current mark price, this 120% floating profit will instantly vanish.
The death of a high-leverage long position is never a trend reversal, but volatility. A normal market fluctuation or a profit-taking by bulls is enough to turn this juicy gain into thin air.
My trading logic is never driven by greed. There's only one move: firmly push the stop loss above the cost line, turning this position into "a small amount the exchange owes me." If it doesn't exit, set a deadline; funding fees will turn inertia into losses.
Survive, and the numbers are truly yours. $BTC $ETH #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $CBRS
I've been avoiding this round of new AI chip stocks. I'm not surprised that Cerebras got slammed by short sellers this time.
Culper released a report last night saying that their wafer-level chips actually have a lifespan of only 1.5 to 2.5 years. The US stock market has already gone through a round of declines, and it's down more than 3% in pre-market trading today. The CBRS token on OKX reacted even more directly, dropping from a low of 119 to 105.51 within 24 hours, now recovering to around 110, still showing a drop of over seven points intraday.
The fee rate is just a detail. Despite such a drop, the contract fee rate is still 0.018%, and the bulls are still paying to hold. With a position size of $3.2 million and 24-hour trading volume of $9.5 million, the market is small, so when a short report comes out, it creates a vacuum market.
I don't have the ability to evaluate the fundamentals of this kind of stock; it hasn't been listed long and is priced purely on the story. I only follow one rule: small market cap plus a short report means don't catch the falling knife in the short term. The last time I caught one like this, the memory still hurts.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 【Old Positions Profiting, New Positions Trapped! Strategy Returns to Cost Line】
$BTC has climbed back above Strategy's 2026 cost line, with old positions supporting the new ones. The company's overall average holding cost is about $75,446, with BTC bought at low prices in earlier years still showing unrealized gains; however, according to Darkfrost's statistics, the combined cost of positions bought since 2025 and partially sold during that period is about $90,600, still deeply underwater.
Strategy has historically leveraged Bitcoin's rise by continuously issuing shares and financing coin purchases; but chips bought at high prices have yet to break even, making the stock price and financing capacity more vulnerable to pressure. The latest disclosure shows the company did not continue buying coins last week, with holdings remaining at 848,517 BTC.
Overall, Strategy's holdings still show unrealized gains on the books, but the high-level positions since 2025 remain underwater. If BTC's rebound fails to push prices higher, how long the old positions' profits can hold and how long the new positions must endure is the truly ugly part of this coin hoarding game.$BTC
Checked the Strategy's coin purchase ledger, there's a detail: the batch of 334 coins on October 5th had an average price of 85,839. The current price is 80,080, so that batch is still stuck with a 7% loss.
But looking at this round of pullback across the entire ledger, it's not that scary. The full position is 848,000 coins, with an average cost just over 75,000, and the current price is still about 6% above the cost line. The overnight panic pushed the price below 80,000, hitting a low of 79,666, but today it has climbed back up slightly above that line.
No one really fled the market. Contract positions are at $2.6 billion, the fee rate is 0.04% close to zero, and ETFs have had net inflows for three consecutive days; the money hasn't left.
My judgment: the drop below 80,000 felt more like an emotional tax. The chips above 85,000 are stuck, the 75,000 level is the big ledger cost line, and the middle range is a tug of war. If you really want to wait for a deep dip, first see if anyone is willing to sell large amounts below the cost line.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $SUI, when risk appetite weakens, how can ecosystem growth decouple from the token price? Market-wide risk events trigger crypto futures liquidations, and short-term positions amplify volatility in high-beta tokens. Long-term assessment should focus on active users, application retention, fees, and token supply. If user base and revenue continue to grow and unlocks are absorbable, resilience is stronger; if activity relies on incentives and supply pressure increases, I would downgrade the trend outlook. [Sony Adds Fuel to Soneium Again, but On-Chain Entertainment Has Yet to Truly Take Off]
Sony is once again bringing projects to on-chain entertainment. The new incubation plan offers technology, marketing, and financing opportunities, and can connect with Sony's affiliated businesses; since 2024, Sony has supported 43 projects through the first two rounds of the plan. The goal is clear: to bring music, games, anime, and IP fan economies onto the blockchain, allowing fans not only to consume content but also to participate in the community and value creation.
Sony's brand is strong, but Soneium (Soneium is an Ethereum Layer 2, with on-chain gas fees paid in $ETH) data has yet to catch up with expectations. As of October 29, on-chain DeFi locked value is about $9.29 million, and the DEX trading volume in the past 24 hours is about $830,000. Compared to the high heat it reached in early 2025, the current capital scale remains limited.
This can be seen as a transformation; Sony is re-driving ecosystem commercialization rather than on-chain entertainment having already taken off. Whether the incubated projects can turn real fans into continuously active users will determine if Soneium can escape the awkward situation of "big-name endorsement but on-chain quietness." The number of projects can be increased through support, but truly retaining users ultimately depends on the product.The tape looks green, but the tape is lying about participation. Across five tokens, the 24-hour gains are nearly identical in tone while the underlying order flow splits into two very different regimes — and that split matters more than the headline percentages. $XRP at 1.3373, up 3.1%, is the clean case: the last six hours added about 1.1% while volume rose roughly 35.9% versus the prior six-hour window. Price and activity arrived together, which is the closest thing to confirmation a short-wiWhy in this bull market do we see repeated slaughter and countless people repeatedly liquidated and exiting early?
Compared to the smooth rise in 2023, this bull market is especially grueling.
It’s no longer a one-way rally; after a rise, there’s a crash, then a rebound with shakeouts, jumping back and forth. Many people, even if they got the overall direction right, can’t withstand the volatility with leverage and get repeatedly liquidated, exiting early before the bull market is over.
In past bull markets, the main players were funds within the circle, and retail investors followed with spot holdings, making the market move straightforwardly.
But this round, it has become a battleground between institutions and retail contract traders.
First, institutions have a different accumulation logic.
Long-term ETF funds don’t push the price up all at once; they prefer to accumulate in batches within a range, suppressing the price when it rises and buying again when it falls, using prolonged volatility to wash out impatient players and acquire low-priced chips.
Second, the contract volume is much larger than the previous round.
Now, perpetual contract funds are huge; even a single spike can trigger mass liquidations, with longs and shorts exploding back and forth, causing violent market swings. Even if the direction is right, heavy positions without room for error easily get caught in the volatility.
Third, macro expectations swing repeatedly.
In past cycles, macro trends were clear; this round, interest rate and US Treasury expectations flip back and forth, with funds switching directions at any time, making it hard to sustain a continuous one-sided market.
Simply put, the bull market logic has changed—from a retail-driven one-sided market to a slow bull market of institutional and leveraged battles.
Many people aren’t wrong about the direction but still use old thinking to heavily leverage contracts, falling just before dawn.
Understanding this explains why I rarely take heavy positions and only wait for high-certainty opportunities. $FIL
Decentralized storage has a compelling proposition, but available capacity is not the same as paying demand. Filecoin’s long-term prospects depend on whether businesses, developers, and applications consistently need its storage services. The important distinction is between network resources being offered and useful data actually being stored under sustainable economic conditions. Durable demand matters more than capacity figures alone.Core contradiction: $80,000 stuck between "two cost lines"
Glassnode's data reveals the most essential current price situation — Bitcoin is caught between two key cost lines, with selling pressure to break even above and real support below:
Above: $81,500 — the "break-even line" for ETF holders
The weighted average holding cost of spot Bitcoin ETFs across the U.S. is approximately in the $80,000-$82,000 range, the most direct and persistent source of selling pressure.
Below: $79,000 — a "thicker" structural support
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 After comparing Microsoft and Google, I can only say: "No comparison, no hurt!"
Yesterday, when Google's earnings report came out, it wiped out over 50 billion USD, with cash flow turning negative. I originally thought AI was just a bottomless pit.
But tonight, Microsoft came out, and Azure cloud growth directly hit 48%!
Capital expenditure was 45.2 billion, still a huge amount, but less than market expectations.
What does this mean? It means the infrastructure they built earlier is starting to pay off.
Previously, with Bitcoin falling and US tech stocks dropping, everyone was afraid the "AI narrative" would collapse. Tonight, Microsoft's report basically gave the tech giants a strong lifeline.
Google fell after hours yesterday, while Microsoft rose 4% after hours today.
This is reality: capital doesn't care how good your story sounds; whoever can turn AI into real money is the boss.
#微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 $ACU I'll be straightforward, the chart of this ACU really pisses me off. Damn it! The 0.1304 level is just a trap set by the manipulative whales to fish for buyers, purely a capital game with no fundamental backing at all. Who are they acting the fool for, exchanging insults? 🤡
The candlestick clearly shows a structure of a pump and dump, volume can't keep up, the upper shadows are getting longer and longer, a typical prelude to a shakeout. Don't chase longs, don't fantasize, at this level I'm only bearish.
Enter short around 0.1304, set stop loss above 0.1360, target first 0.1180, if broken then look down to 0.1050. Keep a close eye on the rhythm, don't be greedy.
If you want to follow, check the token market card below to see the order book, I've already set up an ambush. Whether you follow or not is your own risk. 👇👇👇The Federal Reserve held steady, but two members voted against, advocating for a rate hike. With this hawkish signal, BTC surged to 81,700 before dropping below 80,000, hitting a low of 79,607 USD. In the past 24 hours, liquidations reached 367 million, with long positions accounting for nearly 60%.
$BTC is around 80,100. Before the decision, ETFs saw net inflows for three consecutive days, with daily inflows exceeding 100 million on the 26th and 27th. Institutions completed their positioning on the left side. However, the hawkish dissenting votes made the "hold steady" stance no longer bullish. The 80,000 level was lost again, and the 81,000–82,000 range now requires repeated digestion.
$ETH is around 2,340. October spot ETF net outflows have reached about 1.35 billion USD, potentially marking the worst October since 2018. Meanwhile, wallets dormant for years transferred over 140 million USD worth of ETH to exchanges, so selling pressure is no longer coming solely from ETFs.
$SOL is around 100. ETFs had net outflows of 24.82 million over two days, with 19.16 million redeemed on the 27th—the largest single-day redemption since December last year. On-chain, a giant whale sold 1.02 million SOL over five days, about 104 million USD. The 100 USD level is the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern; daily close confirmed a break below, and 80 USD will come into view.
In short: the decision is out, but the hawkish signal remains. BTC’s ETF is on hold, ETH is pressured by both ETFs and awakening whales, and SOL’s 100 USD level is being repeatedly tested by outflows.
For record-keeping only, not investment advice.
#三星Q3营业利润创新高，净利润不及预期 The market has a new spectator sport: waiting for a large short seller to be liquidated. The disclosed book is $BTC short 2,613 coins opened at 76,343, $ETH short 106,400 coins, and $SOL short 719,900 coins, with paper losses above $20 million combined. The crowd reads that number as a countdown. It is closer to a receipt. Start with the arithmetic that undercuts the liquidation fantasy. All three positions are fully funded, with liquidation levels at 135,031 for Bitcoin, 3,671 for Ether and 293Everyone thought that staying put this time was a positive sign, but in reality, the market is truly repricing "how long high interest rates will last." Did you almost read "no rate hike" as "time to chase"? I also breathed a sigh of relief when I first saw the 3.75%–4.00% figure, but looking at the wording again, the hawkish tone is actually stronger than the decision itself. The price reaction is very honest: BTC first surged to 81.5K, then fell back to around 80K; ETH didn’t even have the strength to rally, staying around 2.3K. One tries to push up, the other can’t keep up—this isn’t a full risk-on, but more like hesitation after an emotional pulse. The key is that the market isn’t trading on "no rate hike this time," but on "rising divergence in December." No rate hike was priced in early, so it didn’t bring sustained buying; what really unsettles people is that the longer rates stay high, the harder it is for leverage and altcoin risk appetite to fully open. BTC’s relative resilience shows funds are still willing to stay in core assets; ETH’s weak momentum reminds me that narrative fatigue isn’t over, and sector rotation lacks follow-through. On the bullish side: no rate hike itself gave the market a breather, and BTC holding near 80K shows bulls haven’t surrendered control. On the bearish side: hawkish wording caps valuation upside, and FOMO can easily turn into a pullback after chasing, especially since altcoins are more sensitive to sentiment changes. What I’m more focused on now is whether there’s real support on the pullback, not how lively the rally is. Crowd psychology is currentlyAll 5 trades won, so they put up a "100% win rate" sign. I see this message as catering to the emotion of chasing winners, which is not the same as following the price trend. According to monitoring, this address is again using high leverage to go long on $ETH and currently has unrealized profits.
I have three principles for trading trends: look at the price structure, not who is famous; this long position cannot replace confirmation of the market; look at whether the evidence can be sustained—5 wins in a row is too small a sample to predict the next trade with confidence; look at risk, don’t treat unrealized profits as locked-in gains, as high leverage amplifies the impact of volatility on the position. I judge that such headlines will reinforce short-term bullish sentiment because people tend to treat others’ win rates as their own safety net.
The trend is the best friend; I will still wait for market confirmation and not chase the "always winning" story. Facing such large long positions, do you now use moving averages, volume, or high-low point structures to judge the trend? Will this change your criteria?Last night, the Federal Reserve pressed a hawkish pause button for the market. According to last night's content, the current interest rate remains unchanged, staying in the range of 3.75% to 4%. The voting result was 10 to 2, with two dissenting votes indicating a clear split within the committee. The wording in the statement is to wait for more information to accumulate before making the next decision. Wash also specifically emphasized at the press conference that politics did not influence this decision made by the institution he is "honored to lead." This sentence itself is actually a response to external doubts about rate cuts or hikes before the midterm elections. The market's interpretation of this result is very unified: hawkish. The key point is that after the pause, a rate hike in December is still on the table. This time it says the rate remains unchanged, but in fact, a December hike is implied. This is why, even though there was no rate hike, risk assets still fell. For crypto, the Fed's hawkish pause continues to put pressure on Bitcoin. The logic behind this is not hard to understand: the pause only delays the bullet; it does not put the gun away. As long as the December rate hike event remains, long-term interest rates cannot come down, and risk asset valuations have no room to rise. The market reaction also shows this: Bitcoin fell below 80,000 after the decision. CoinDesk data shows this wave wiped out $356 million in crypto longs. Our own liquidation data also confirms this: total liquidations in 24 hours reached $373.95 million, with 84,811 people exiting. Longs accounted for $219.31 million or 58.6%, shorts $154.64 million or 41.4%. The most noteworthy part here is the 12-hour segment, 12 hours$BTC perpetual buy engine is stuck.
Strategy's increased holdings this week directly hit zero, turning to pour money into repurchasing high-yield preferred shares.
Calculating the accounts, for every 1 dollar spent buying coins, 9.18 dollars must be spent to cover debt.
Even the most ironclad perpetual motion machine has to withdraw money to protect its financial bottom line, and common stock issuance has also stopped.
The largest incremental buy order on the market has been cut off directly, what do the bulls use to defend this position?
#BTC
$BTC
👇$137 million flowed into Bitcoin ETFs, but the coin price fell 1.6% in 24 hours
On October 28 Eastern Time, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $137 million, totaling about $424 million over three consecutive days
The entire month of October also turned positive with a net inflow of about $111 million
However, of this $137 million, BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for $136 million, or 99%
Among other products, Bitwise's BITB only saw an inflow of $1.3 million, with the rest at zero
On the same day, Ethereum ETFs had an outflow of $21.4 million, continuing for three days, with a cumulative outflow of about $1.35 billion in October
What’s more disheartening is that the Federal Reserve held steady in the early hours of October 29, keeping interest rates at 3.75% to 4.00%
Money returned, rates didn’t ease, and Bitcoin’s current price is about $80,100, still down about 1.6% in 24 hours
I think this round is a "one player carrying the flag, price not cooperating" situation, so I’m observing but not chasing
Invalidation point: other products besides IBIT also have net inflows for two consecutive days, or Bitcoin volume breaks back above $81,800
Do you think institutions are quietly accumulating, or is it just BlackRock holding the line?
$IBIT $BTC $ETH
#Bitcoin #ETFLet's talk about the Fed tonight. Last night’s rate decision kept the interest rate at 3.75% to 4%, with ten votes in favor and two against. Those two votes still want to raise rates. They say pause, but in their hearts, they’re calculating whether to break up. After the market heard this, it first surged—BTC touched 81,000, then obediently fell back near 80,000. Today's market: BTC around 79,700 to 80,000 USD, down about 1% intraday; ETH around 2,300 USD, down about 2%, even worse than BTC. Data is a snapshot from October 29, real-time may vary. Why the drop? First, rates didn’t go down, and some still want to raise them. September CPI was 3.7%, higher than August. Inflation, this ex, is knocking on the door again. The market’s pricing for a December rate hike is already high. Second, after-hours, Google was hammered due to heavy cash burn, dragging Nasdaq futures weaker; risk assets cooled off together. Third, leveraged long positions were liquidated, with open interest down about 7%. The old problem: chasing gains and blowing up on dips. Also, a whale transferred nearly 500 million USD worth of BTC to Coinbase Prime. Transferring in doesn’t mean selling; it could be institutional portfolio adjustment. Don’t scare yourself. Outlook for tomorrow: 80,000 is a psychological barrier; holding it means consolidation, breaking below looks toward 78,000. Resistance above is 81,000. Inflation data is coming tonight; once released, volatility will increase. Trading advice: don’t leverage too heavily before the December meeting. Those holding cash are the freest. Don’t chase highs or catch falling knives. If you want to enter, do it in batches—like dating, have a few meals first before talking about marriage. Bitcoin $BTC is still the leader and very strong 🙀 Most traders still focus mainly on BTC and ETH.
Currently, BTC has returned to 80022, $ETH at 2322, and $SOL stuck at 100.27.
BTC's base resilience is the strongest; even with repeated fluctuations around the 80k mark, institutional holdings have not massively withdrawn. The 79000-80000 range has solid cost support, and funds are willing to repeatedly play here, making it the first choice for most people, with higher fault tolerance and easier recovery after dips.
ETH is different; the 2350 trendline has already been broken, funding rates are dropping rapidly, bullish leverage enthusiasm is fading, ETFs are continuously flowing out, and big players are choosing to reduce positions. Its pressure is clearly greater than BTC's. 2300 is the current critical defense line; if it fails, liquidation will be triggered.
SOL is currently the weakest among the three. Large whales keep depositing to exchanges, creating continuous selling pressure. The head and shoulders pattern is present, with 100 as the neckline. Once this breaks effectively, the downside target is directly 80, with volatility risk much greater than BTC and ETH.
There is good reason why most prefer BTC and ETH.
BTC is the emotional anchor of the entire crypto market. As long as the macro sentiment is dovish, BTC stabilizes first, giving ETH and SOL a chance to rebound; if the tone turns hawkish, SOL will be the first to falter, then ETH, while BTC is relatively more resilient.
Most traders choosing BTC and ETH essentially prioritize liquidity and survival.$ARB This situation is quite strange. The entire network is buzzing as its active addresses surge to 1.09 million, a 30-day high, making the on-chain activity as lively as a festival.
And the price? It dropped 2.6% today, down 9.6% over 7 days.
I really have to laugh. The number of addresses has reached the fullest in a month, yet the coin price is stuck at the 7-day low, and the volume is only 1.5 times the usual — it's not that no one is buying, but no one is in a hurry to buy. This is what we call lively activity, but the money stays put. Retail investors are busy interacting and increasing addresses, while the real chips are quietly being passed out.
On-chain data diverging from price has only two possible outcomes: either it's the bears' final act, or someone is using the hype to offload. $ARB Intel will release its Q3 earnings report after the market closes tomorrow. My personal judgment: the server business has a chance to deliver a slightly better-than-expected performance, but whether the company can continue to raise profit forecasts after the report depends on its delivery capacity in Q4 and how much profit the new revenue can retain. This company currently shows an interesting contrast. The PC market is still under pressure, yet market revenue expectations for Intel are rising. The CPU demand driven by AI is buying it time to repair its operations. Meanwhile, advanced process technology and new factories still require continuous spending, and capital expenditures are increasing. 1. Market expectations have already exceeded the midpoint of the company's guidance. Let's first look at the position of expectations. Intel's revenue guidance for Q3 is $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion, with a midpoint of $16.3 billion; adjusted EPS is $0.38, and adjusted gross margin is 42%. The current public market expectation is roughly $16.4 billion to $16.5 billion, with adjusted EPS between $0.39 and $0.40. In other words, the market has already priced in results slightly above the company's guidance midpoint. Therefore, if the final report shows $16.5 billion in revenue and $0.40 EPS, the operational performance can be considered good, but in terms of earnings report trading, the surprise might be limited. I am more concerned about where the excess comes from. If server shipments accelerate and gross margin is better than expected, the market has reason to continue raising profit forecasts for the next few quarters. If revenue mainly comes from raising prices through product mix, with limited profit improvement, the basis for revaluation will be thinner. Q2 has already provided a strong reference. Intel's revenueAfter a day of no rate hike, Bitcoin actually fell all day
You must have seen the early morning news: the Federal Reserve did not raise rates, keeping them at 4%.
But if you look closely at this meeting, it seems calm on the surface, but it's all hawkish underneath. Out of 12 members, 2 directly voted against, thinking a hike was necessary this time; the statement changed economic growth from "solid" to "strong"; at the press conference, Waller bluntly said inflation is still far from 2% and there’s no room for concessions.
This is not a pause, it’s a "hawkish pause"—no action in October, but the knife is already set for December.
The market today is honest too. Bitcoin at 80,000, Ethereum at 2,320, no rebound all day, instead slowly grinding down, even lower than early morning. Those waiting to "buy the dip on no rate hike" probably had a tough day.
The logic isn’t complicated. The no rate hike was known by 90% of people two weeks ago, already priced in. The real new info is those 2 opposing votes and Waller’s tough talk, all pointing to a December hike.
Money is still stuck at a high 4% interest rate, no new money is coming in, all the good news is out, what do you have to push prices up?
I remain bearish, if Bitcoin can’t hold 80,000, look down to 76,000; Ethereum breaking 2,240 heads to 2,200. Don’t chase rebounds, keep cash on hand.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $BTC has now reached the most critical stage, which is the midterm elections. Compared to the previous news, this will have a greater impact on the subsequent trend! Be patient and see how much the victories of the Democratic and Republican parties will affect the crypto space.
Starting with the winning probabilities: Based on current voting, the Democrats have an 80% chance of taking the House of Representatives,
and a 58% chance of taking the Senate. This is quite a blow to the Republicans; the blond guy is angry and might target Iran (haha, just kidding).
House of Representatives: Democrats currently have a clear advantage, and it will be difficult for Republicans to maintain control.
Senate: Democrats have a slight edge, but the competition is fiercer, so the result cannot be determined prematurely.
Probability of both chambers controlled by Democrats: about 56%.
According to these odds, the Democrats are very likely to win, which will put significant pressure on the crypto space.
CLARITY Act: May require increased conflict of interest disclosures, consumer protections, and decentralized finance disclosures, potentially prolonging negotiations.
Crypto regulation: Congressional investigations and hearings may increase, with stricter scrutiny of relationships between crypto companies and government officials (possibly leading to a cliff-like drop).
Not only will the crypto market be under pressure, but this will also be a huge blow to the blond guy, which unexpectedly means that in next year's presidential election, Trump will lose a lot of support! Furthermore, it will subject Musk's Tesla, rockets, and other projects to scrutiny since he is Trump's biggest supporter! At that time, stock prices will face challenges, tech stocks will also be dragged down, and capital will shrink significantly. The consequences need no further explanation!$ZEC's recent move was pretty much what I expected! I mentioned earlier that this altcoin suddenly showed more strength than BTC and ETH, rebounding from 1119. At that time, I suspected the main driver was speculation on the NU7 upgrade! But I also warned that ZEC would eventually have to follow BTC's lead, and starting Wednesday, news came out, so be cautious of a spike followed by a pullback!
As a result, ZEC initially surged alone to around 1330, likely punishing many short sellers! Wednesday marked the 10th anniversary and coincided with the launch of institutional ETPs, followed by the Fed releasing a hawkish signal overnight. On one hand, there was positive news for ZEC itself; on the other, macro pressure. Ultimately, ZEC fell along with BTC and ETH, hitting a low near 1229 today, down nearly 5% in 24 hours! Why isn't it moving independently anymore?
I still suspect that the previous sharp rally partly served to shake out shorts, and once the news window passed, some profit-taking began. The NU7 upgrade is planned around November 5, and the privacy narrative and technical benefits remain! But my judgment on ZEC is that it is indeed weak in the short term! It is temporarily holding around 1230, but if it can't reclaim 1260–1270, why rush to call for further gains? Only a solid recovery would target 1300–1330. If it breaks below 1230 effectively and can't bounce back, then watch out for 1200!