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Big Brother Maji's short positions are fully exposed: 2,613 BTC shorts opened at 76,343, with an unrealized loss of 12.03 million; 106,400 ETH shorts with an unrealized loss of 3.36 million; 719,900 SOL shorts with an unrealized loss of 5.51 million. Over 20 million in unrealized losses, the whole network is waiting to see him get liquidated.
Let's cool things down first: forced liquidation alone can't push the price. All three positions are full margin; BTC's liquidation price is 135,031, ETH's is 3,671, SOL's is 293, with margin costs of 40 to 50 million USD per position. If the price rises further, it hurts pride, not the position.
Moreover, he is the one collecting fees: the funding fees from the three short positions have already earned over 11.4 million, while the unrealized loss is over 20 million, meaning every day he loses a bit but also earns some. The one in a hurry isn't the fee collector.
His real risk isn't leverage, but the data. The decision just came out with a vote of 10 to 2, with two dissenting votes advocating for a rate hike; GDP and PCE data are released tonight—if the data is strong, the shorts will flip; if the data is weak, then the bulls can talk about a short squeeze. Betting on him cutting losses is betting on which side the data supports.
One more detail: he only shorts BTC, ETH, and SOL, not ZEC. ZEC is running an independent trend this round, and the crowded trades aren't on the short side. He didn't touch it, which shows he's clear-headed.
My view: don't wait for his liquidation to ignite a rally; the fuel theory only holds if there's a breakout first. I only watch two things: price and volume holding above the upper range, and long-term positions being replenished. Until both happen, he's just collecting fees, and I’m not worried for him.On-Chain Observation｜The Follow-up Suspense of 5,500 $BTC 🧐
The path of this batch of coins is quite interesting: two transactions of 3,000 + 2,500 coins were credited early morning on 10/8, with a cost range between 83,100–83,400, and then remained completely still for 20 days; suddenly at 08:14 today, 3,396 coins (about $274 million) were transferred into Coinbase Institutional. Based on the current price of 80,700, the unrealized loss is about $13–15 million 📉.
But don’t misinterpret Whale Alert’s "644 BTC leaving Coinbase Institutional" as user withdrawals: about 10 minutes after 3,396 coins entered, they were split into lots of 644.13 coins each and moved into Coinbase’s own wallets, with two lots even going to bc1qzl6f…gs64f7 🔗.
The remaining 2,104 coins were transferred to a brand new address and have not moved since. I tend to think: the probability of directly following Coinbase in the short term is low, more like isolating and observing first; if they really want to move in, it might be in batches, split into smaller amounts, or wait for a price window. Unless the new address starts probing transfers toward exchange clusters, “no movement” does not equal “definite entry” 👀.Someone proposed on the XRP Ledger to simply remove the 1 XRP reserve required for new accounts. The reason is quite practical — with XRP currently at $1.3, developers have to pay a threshold fee of about ten dollars to deploy an application, a rule not seen on other chains.
Today, two other things came together. Coinbase launched Ripple's stablecoin RLUSD, which has a scale of about $2.4 billion on the XRP Ledger, opening another path for compliant stablecoins. On the other hand, some tech analysts are talking about the daily death cross, bringing up old issues that after the last death cross, the price dropped by 30%.
I'm skeptical about death crosses; the pattern is a result, not a cause. But I side with the RLUSD launch on Coinbase: it won't push XRP up in the short term, but in the long term, it solidifies the use cases for this chain. Current price is 1.31, 24-hour low is 1.309, a pullback of just over two points from the high of 1.34, which isn't much.
If the reserve requirement is really removed, it will be a slow variable for the coin price; don't expect an immediate reaction tomorrow. What should be watched is whether RLUSD volume on the XRP Ledger can pick up.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Could Bitcoin crash 80% in seconds? A Satoshi-linked wallet moving wouldn’t mean an instant sell-off, and the $88.3B figure is only an estimate. Any impact would depend on how much BTC is sold and market liquidity. Extreme volatility is possible; 80% in seconds is speculation, not a forecast. #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarkets$MON current price is 0.02184, slightly weak. There are 26 days left until the unlock, and the pressure hasn't reached the release point yet; the real focus should be on the last 7 days before the unlock. In backtesting, large unlocks like this tend to underperform the market mainly in the week prior, with consistent direction in both sample periods, about three-quarters of events closing negative. After the unlock day itself, there is no stable direction, so the focus should be on the days before November 24, not the day itself. The market is very thin now, with almost zero trading volume, and contract open interest is only 20 million USD. In 24 hours, 14 long positions were liquidated, while only 5 short positions were liquidated; those chasing upwards are more likely to be shaken out. The fee rate is slightly negative, just consider it as background information. The price on the chart is close to the previous high, but the descending resistance line from the high points remains. Without new buying before the end of the month, and with a cliff-like supply pressure next month, this small breakout cannot hold. Conditions for a bullish reversal: in the last 7 days, if $MON holds above 0.02215 and does not weaken relative to the market, this bearish judgment will be invalidated. $XRP Franklin, who boasts every day, moved a $200 million fund onto the XRPL, and as a result, the XRP price directly dropped 13%.
Institutions use this route to issue their own locked wallets; what does that have to do with buying the token you hold?
Building the road and price increases are completely different matters.
Real money is deposited in their exclusive fund, while retail investors are still shouting about positive news and calculating profits. The on-chain activity is lively, but there is basically no spot buying.
This kind of forced price boost from hard positive news is weak; the market has no choice but to continue under pressure and decline slowly.
#XRP
$XRP
👇Last week, the Paris Euronext exchange suspended CoinShares' ZEC ETN, but it resumed trading at noon. The reason sounded pretty dull: a glitch in the settlement process of the securities depository, unrelated to regulation.
But I usually take a closer look at such details. For ETN products, the listing exchange and the settlement party are usually invisible, so when one suddenly steps in to block something, it usually means the underlying delivery activity has increased—either subscription and redemption are congested, or market makers are frequently adjusting their positions. ZEC has surged from a few hundred to 1,300, and the frictions on the traditional channel side have started to show.
Currently hovering around 1287, down less than 1% in 24 hours, with a high touching 1330. My view: this privacy coin rally isn’t just pure hype; there is real buying demand, but the path will be very volatile, and those who can’t hold on will be left behind halfway.
I’m not surprised by the pullback; what’s surprising is that it has held above 1,200 for so long.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 🌅 Crypto Morning Brief: Whales Turn Bearish, BTC Loses 80K
As the Asian morning session opened, $BTC fell below 80,000, repeatedly tugging around 79,700, while major players sent out a rare bearish signal. 📉
Whales' spot CFD positions on Hyperliquid have turned net short for the first time since March, with a clear shift in holding direction. Spot ETFs previously saw a net outflow of 770 million, followed by only 110 million inflow, lacking momentum for a rebound, with price suppressed around 79,700. After $BTC lost 80,000, whales collectively turned bearish for the first time since March; previously, multiple rebounds near 81,500 and 80,200 failed to break through. Institutional buying has dried up; if the short-term price does not recover above 80,500, the strong support at 78,500 below may be tested faster.
$ETH dropped to around 2,320, with another 110 million outflow in a single day. Previously at 2,450, ETFs continue to see net outflows, with no spot support visible on rebounds. The psychological level of 2,300 is precarious; if lost, the next target is 2,250. 📉
$SOL struggles at the 100 mark, with leverage continuously clearing out. Previously referenced at 105, it now retests 100 following the market breakdown; retail bottom-fishing willingness weakens, liquidity tightens, and chips loosen, making rebounds prone to quick pullbacks.
⚠️ Whales turning bearish and BTC leading the breakdown leave altcoins even more vulnerable. Prices and capital move downward together, so short-term acceleration risks remain.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Whale short positions are flooding the screen again, is BTC about to change? Don't rush to conclusions yet
It is rumored online that a certain "insider whale" is heavily shorting $BTC, whose wallet had previously positioned large short orders on BTC and $ETH before the US announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods in October last year, ultimately profiting about $200 million. This time, the market speculates that the whale is betting on an escalation in the Iran situation or a political shift after the US midterm elections. However, the authenticity of the "rumored account" is hard to verify, so it is not advisable to take the rumor directly as a trading basis.
BTC daily chart is somewhat optimistic but still under short-term pressure: this morning it surged above EMA50 (80,600), but the 20/50-day SMA (81,800–82,000) still presses from above, so the short-term trend has not escaped the bearish zone. After ETH's selling pressure eased, it found support in the cluster of "price + 200-day EMA + major holder cost baseline" at 2310–2328, but it remains below the 20/50-day EMA (2430/2453), representing a critical cost zone defense with a bottoming structure and no trend reversal yet. SOL barely holds the 200/100-day EMA support at 98–100, with the daily RSI at only 34, the weakest since mid-June, and it has fallen below the 20/50-day EMA (around 106). Volume has shrunk to 50% of the 20-day average, and the 20-day line is about to cross below the 50-day line, indicating a critical state where the long-term uptrend has just been broken.
#SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Only 28 days into October, the monthly net outflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF has already exceeded $1 billion. On October 27 alone, there was an outflow of $60.2 million, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for $93.3 million.
On the same day, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $176 million, with IBIT alone taking in $151 million. The same group of institutional funds is increasing BTC while decreasing ETH, which I've been watching for over half a month. The more I look, the more it seems less like portfolio rebalancing and more like taking sides.
The interesting part is yet to come. While ETHA was being sold off, Fidelity's FETH announced the launch of staking functionality. BlackRock is withdrawing, Fidelity is adding yield to holdings; these two top issuers are working against each other, which is more worth pondering than the candlestick charts.
On the market, ETH is hovering around 2346, with a 24-hour volatility of less than $70. Even the FOMC holding steady didn't wake it up. With monthly ETF outflows and prices not falling, I tend to believe the selling pressure is quietly absorbed by on-exchange funds, but those absorbing it remain silent.
If I were to change my view, I'd need to see ETHA turn positive for several consecutive days. Until then, ETH remains the neglected second brother by institutions, and I won't be giving it any position credit on my side.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 U.S. stock market closed with all three major indexes up, Microsoft and Google's earnings both exceeded expectations, and futures are still pushing higher. BTC is now hovering around 81100, moving only 0.4% in 24 hours, with a high of 81820 and a low of 80397, as if it hasn't opened.
There are two days left in October. BTC has already dropped 4.2% this month, and the spot demand indicator has been negative all month. To pull October back to positive returns, it needs to retake the baseline at 83567, which is still 3% away from the current level.
On a night when risk assets are collectively celebrating, BTC is standing aside watching the show. The signal I read is: no new inflows in the market, just existing holders feeling each other's pockets. I was still waiting for the rate cut rally in August, but by the end of October, it's still the same deadlock, so I accept it.
Where the monthly candle closes matters more to me than the few hundred dollars intraday. If it can't hold above 83567, October will be a bearish candle, and I won't be rushing to add longs at the start of November.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Increase of about 1.504%, magnified 100 times to 150.41% — this is the entire math behind this order.
The reverse account should be calculated first: the break-even line is about 1% below the current price (about 1% of 81,250, which is around 812 points). In other words, a drop of about 812 points from 81,250.4 will wipe out this 150%, so it won't even wait to fall back to the cost. And $BTC's intraday fluctuation of 1% is considered normal noise.
Converted, for every 812 points BTC moves, the floating profit changes by about 100 points — the sensitivity of this order has reached this magnitude.
Subsequent strategy: treat "1% below the current price" (about 80,438) as the real exit point, rather than waiting to return to the cost price — the cost is 1.5% away from the current price, which is the position of slowly losing all. 82,000 above is the first integer resistance; observe the reaction there first: if it breaks through with volume, hold; if it stalls and is rejected, reduce by one-third. Reduce another batch at 83,000. No additional positions under 100 times leverage. $ETH $ZEC
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓 1. Growth Sources
- HBM (High Bandwidth Memory): Essential for AI servers, with booming orders and high premiums, it is the largest profit driver;
- DRAM and NAND Flash: Supply tightening and continuous price increases, with demand recovering simultaneously in ordinary servers, PCs, and mobile phones;
- Mobile phone and home appliance businesses performed mediocrely, with semiconductor memory segments solely supporting the performance.
2. Market Expectations
The market generally expects the storage shortage situation to continue, with institutions optimistic about profits in the coming quarters; however, the rate of price increases is slowing down, signaling a weakening of positive momentum.
3. Related Impact
Positive for the domestic storage industry chain (Changxin, Yangtze Memory related sectors); meanwhile, memory price hikes will gradually push up procurement costs for computers, servers, and solid-state drives.#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ It seems to be useless, with an investment close to 100 billion USD, the final capacity gained is actually negative. With such financial results, of course, all AI-related sectors will be hit. If AI doesn't make money, and data centers don't make money, is it really only memory that profits? Could it be that only selling shovels is a guaranteed win?From 2320.52 to 2360.12, up 1.71%. Looking at a longer time frame, $ETH is still down more than 50% from its all-time high — so this wave is a recovery after an oversell, not a trend reversal.
The pattern of the recovery phase is fast speed and dense resistance: each level above is stacked with trapped positions. 2400 is the first level, around 2500 is the second. ETH has its fundamentals — staking yield is about 3%, making it one of the few crypto assets that can be valued using a cash flow framework; EIP-1559 burns tokens during network activity, even causing deflation on the supply side.
But there are slow variables weighing it down: L2 takes away mainnet fees, creating a gap between ecosystem prosperity and mainnet revenue; on-chain total activity is rising, but ETH’s revenue side may not keep pace.
Subsequent strategy: manage according to the recovery phase, without assuming long-term holding. Reduce positions in batches at 2400, 2450, and 2500; do not add on breakouts, only reduce on pullbacks. Adding positions at 100x leverage is the fastest way to turn profits into principal. After the last batch is sold, this trade ends — do not set new targets just because it’s rising well. $BTC $ZEC
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Hyperliquid's $HYPE has recently shown more resilience than the broader market, with its price hovering around $81 and a slight increase in the last 24 hours. As the native token of a perpetual contract DEX, its trading volume and fee revenue are directly linked, so it actually has some support when market volatility increases.
Of course, it is not completely immune. If $BTC continues to decline, HYPE will eventually be dragged down as well.🎨 HYPE is bouncing, BICO is turning green, ENA is dropping, ASTER is idling
$HYPE 80.3, up 0.97% in the last 24 hours, price rebounded from 78 to 80 📊
Market makers on Hyperliquid are adding liquidity; at the 80.3 level, on-chain derivatives depth is improving. I acknowledge the price recovery but remain critical about its sustainability—this is dividend expectation, not new capital inflow.
$BICO 0.0156, up 0.97% in the last 24 hours, still down over the past 7 days 🔧
Covering users' Gas fees, 0.0156 turning green in one day improves short-term sentiment, but the weekly losses remain. I prefer to see this as a partial rebound; the repair has just started, and the pressure is not fully relieved.
$ENA 0.1983, down 6.81% in the last 24 hours, gave back the 8% gain from the day before 🌾
Ethena’s USDe collateralized US Treasury yield token surged 8% ahead of the rate cut expectation two days ago, but today it dropped back. I recognize the logic of yield tokens in a high-interest environment but remain cautious about chasing highs.
$ASTER 0.705, down 1.21% in the last 24 hours, multi-chain contract DEX still idling 🛰️
Aster has deployed perpetual contracts across several chains; at 0.705, trading volume is only a few hundred thousand USD. Funds are waiting for tomorrow’s early morning results; no catalyst means no attention for this new chain.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice
#OctoberFOMCRateDecisionComingSoon$ETH "Net inflows for three consecutive weeks" sounds like a trend, but last week's $218 million data sharply dropped by 70% from the previous week's $824 million. Funds are still flowing in, but the momentum is rapidly shrinking—this is not an accelerated accumulation, but a defensive allocation in deceleration.
Data
BlackRock ETHA's single-week inflow plummeted from $567 million to $136 million, and the signal of shrinking incremental inflows is more alarming than the total amount. More importantly, Abraxas Capital is simultaneously increasing its spot holdings by 16,500 units while holding 120,000 short positions, engaging in structural arbitrage rather than directional bets. On the price side, $ETH is repeatedly tugging between $2,300–$2,340, with $2,300 tested multiple times; the downside leverage liquidation pressure has not yet been fully cleared.
Conclusion
Continuous inflows are a real slow variable, but they are decelerating and mixed with hedging positions. Before the FOMC decision lands, this money can support the $2,300 bottom but cannot push the trend's peak. The significance of the slow variable lies in accumulation, not ignition—once the macro fast variables provide direction, the $ETH inflow narrative will have a chance to be repriced.
#ETH现货ETF连续三周净流入 $PEPE is one of the very few coins that doesn't require monitoring an unlock schedule: all 4,206.9 trillion are in circulation, no presale, no team allocation; the supply side is fixed, no one can mint more, and there's no expiration dump.
But precisely because there is no supply variable, its pricing is 100% driven by sentiment—no cash flow anchor, no burn mechanism to support it, no ecosystem data to verify. Assets like this tend to rise fast and fall fast; the downturn doesn't need negative news, just a break in buying momentum.
From the historical high of about 0.000028 in December 2024, PEPE has retraced over 80%. This wave is a recovery after an oversell, not a trend reversal.
Future strategy: manage according to the recovery phase, do not assume long-term holding. Reduce a portion every time gains increase by 5%, do not anticipate new highs. No adding on breakdowns, only reduce on pullbacks—adding at 50x is the fastest way to turn floating profits into cost basis. $BTC $ETH
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 If BTC climbs back above 81K before the Fed decision and sentiment remains this light, then this round looks more like the initial phase of a launch rather than a continuation phase. Guess what’s most lacking? When I watch the market, what concerns me most isn’t the 1.6% price increase, but that open interest barely moved. Price is going up, but leverage isn’t following, which means few are willing to chase — this looks more like tentative covering rather than trend confirmation. 82K is the clearest current divergence point: in the past, a slightly more hawkish stance easily amplified short-term pullbacks; but if after the decision volume and open interest both pick up, this phase could shift from launch to continuation. ETH is more subtle. Spot ETF outflows of $88.58M show capital preference clearly favors a "cleaner" narrative; 2,300 is a must-hold support, and reclaiming 2,350 would light up a recovery signal. It now looks more like a divergence phase: holders don’t want to sell, but new money isn’t rushing in. PEPE attracts attention with the whale holding story, but RSI is high and 0.000005 is repeatedly suppressed — this resistance smells like distribution, not a launch. Altcoin risk appetite hasn’t truly warmed up yet; chasing this narrative risks being left at the top. Next, watch three things: whether BTC open interest follows price, whether ETH can reclaim 2,350, and whether PEPE breaks out above 0.000005 with volume. Trend phases require confirmation, not hype. The above is personal observation and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH $PEPE #CryptoMarket #FedDecision $MSTR
Yesterday a friend told me that Strategy started paying daily dividends, which is like a high-yield crypto financial product, you can earn just from the interest. Let me pour some cold water first.
Shareholder vote was 99.3% in favor, four perpetual preferred shares changed to daily interest payments, STRC will switch first on the 1st of next month, the other three series will wait until January 2027. The dividend rate hasn't changed, what changed is the payment rhythm—daily sounds nice, but essentially it breaks down the cost of capital to make more people willing to accept it.
Where does the money come from? Issuing new shares and convertible bonds to raise funds and accumulate coins, the dividends paid out are new money. As long as new money keeps coming, it can keep going; the day no one subscribes, the narrative will change. I've seen this kind of thing elsewhere, and the outcome is usually not good.
MSTR contract is now just above 144, up nearly 3% in 24 hours. I can't keep up with this kind of situation mentally, so I won't touch it, let the brave ones go for it.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $ETH 2327.97 long, 100x leverage, mark price 2352.24, floating profit 104.42%. Just after 4 AM, tonight's Fed decision landed, Powell's tone was dovish, the dot plot did not add hawkishness, the dollar weakened accordingly, US stock futures rose, and ETH was pushed up to 2352 along with the major coins.
From the chart, ETH broke through and then retested without breaking the jump zone, the short-term moving averages are still bullishly aligned, buying pressure remains, the structure is intact. However, 2352 is close to previous high resistance, the deviation is large, and liquidity is thin late at night, so a large order can cause exaggerated spikes.
I’m not betting on how long the dovish stance can hold; I’m reducing the main position to lock in profits, securing principal and the bulk, and pushing the remaining position to protect near the previous high. If the press conference tone turns hawkish or it falls back to the jump zone, I’ll close everything immediately; one 100x spike is enough to wipe out the position. $BTC #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 A notable structure: futures trading volume far exceeds open interest—intraday funds dominate, no one wants to hold overnight.
This set of numbers explains the nature of this decline: it’s not a trend sell-off, but high-frequency funds repeatedly entering and exiting, amplifying volatility. Market makers and short-term quoting funds withdraw after the competition period ends, the order book thins, remaining buy orders are gradually eaten up, and prices naturally step down. Because of this, the rebound will also be quick—there is no settled chip structure, so both sides are light.
$AXIS initial circulation is only 16.5%, so the supply is thin; Binance Wallet’s $200,000 trading competition will continue to bring pulse-like transactions, which come and go quickly without generating open interest.
Subsequent strategy: for these "volume in trades but not in positions" targets, manage according to intraday structure without assuming overnight trends. Observing changes in open interest is one step ahead of watching price—if price falls while open interest shrinks, it indicates shorts are taking profits and the downtrend is near its end, so accelerate reduction; if price falls but open interest does not decrease, it means bottom-fishing is entering and there is still room to fall. Adjusting reduction pace accordingly is more effective than just watching price. $BTC $ETH
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $SOXS The most special aspect of this trade is that one of its sources of profit is "time"—decay happens every day. So the way to take profits must also change: you can't just set a price target and wait; you need to prioritize time and use price as a secondary factor.
Specific approach: set a holding period (for example, measured in weeks), regardless of price movement during the period, reduce a batch when the time is up; at the same time, keep several price observation levels (like 40, 38, 35), accelerate reduction if those levels break. Use price targets to capture acceleration phases, and time to realize decay phases. Combining both fits the characteristics of this asset better than simply setting one price.
Follow-up strategy: currently, the unrealized profit is 525%, which has far exceeded the reasonable range that decay can contribute—indicating that the directional move contributed more, and this phase is mostly over. So going forward, focus on taking profits: reduce a batch every week, reduce more when semiconductors accelerate upward or SOXS drops sharply; reduce as planned during sideways wear. No adding positions, no averaging down, no holding until the last moment just because "it can still fall." After the last batch is taken, this trade ends. $BTC $ETH
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 The Federal Reserve decision is in the final countdown ⏳ Holding steady ≠ easing, the 80,000 level is the $BTC lifeline ⚔️
The probability of maintaining rates in October is about 92.8%, with the rate hike suspense basically cleared 📉. But don’t misinterpret this as easing: funds have already skipped this round, keep an eye on Powell’s wording about the December path 👀. Initial claims remain low, September CPI and PPI exceeded expectations, inflation is sticky, the economy is resilient, and there is insufficient evidence for a dovish turn 🧱.
The decline in US Treasury yields looks more like a safe-haven inflow, not the end of tightening 🎭. The probability of a rate hike in December is still priced above 70%, liquidity remains tight, risk assets are only catching a breather, no turning point yet 🌊.
$BTC has been repeatedly testing between 79,000 and 83,000 this month, with 80,000 as the lower boundary of the range 🚨. Coinbase has a long-term negative premium, domestic US buying is weak, and the support strength is questionable 🧊.
Two scenarios:
🕊️ Dovish bias: downplay rate hikes, build a base at 80,000, rebound to 85,000–90,000;
🦅 Hawkish bias: keep the December rate hike option open, reemphasize inflation volatility, if 80,000 breaks, look for 77,500.
From a macro perspective, this is just an emotional buffer, not a trend reversal 🔄. The new BTC market depends on the Fed’s tone tonight 🎲. For review only, not investment advice; decision volatility is high, strictly control positions ⚠️. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 This short position on $SPCX caught the breakout move after the sideways consolidation.
Currently, the unrealized profit has more than doubled.
Earlier, the price dropped from 163.67, then rebounded to around 149 to 150 but stalled, with the 4-hour moving averages tangled repeatedly, and the short-term trend never regained strength.
I opened a short near 148.88, based on the resistance above and the opportunity for a further decline after the sideways movement.
The drop in the early morning was very direct, with a large bearish 15-minute candle pushing the price down to 142.53, accompanied by a clear increase in volume.
The price then rebounded but did not recover the previously broken area.
Now, the 15-minute chart has fallen back below the moving averages, and the 4-hour trend remains weak.
However, there was already a buying counterattack near 142.53, so chasing shorts further risks encountering a rebound.
I am protecting profits on this position for now and will watch to see if the previous low can be broken again. $BTC $ETH #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 In 2023, BTC emerged from the bottom range, rebounding from around 15,000 to about 25,000, then pulling back to around 19,000. During the same period, altcoins also rebounded two to three times from their bottoms. However, when Bitcoin pulled back from 25,000 to 19,000, the vast majority of altcoins fell back to their starting points. Additionally, the new narrative BRC20 Bitcoin inscription token $ORDI dropped from 28 to 2.8, a 90% decline from its peak. From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates in 2023, yet Bitcoin still managed to break out of the bottom range and transition from bear to bull.
Comparing this to our upcoming market, BTC rebounded from around 58,000 to about 87,000 and is currently undergoing a daily-level pullback. Most altcoins have rebounded two to three times from their bottoms but have now fallen more than 30% from their rebound highs. The new narrative Robinhood Chain's $PONS is also affected. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve is still raising rates. By early 2024, Bitcoin breaks its all-time high, and many altcoins have experienced 5 to 10 times gains, marking the strongest wealth effect in the altcoin market during our last bull run.
History may not simply repeat itself, but it is always strikingly similar. I just want to say that all of this looks so, so alike. Of course, some will mock me for clinging stubbornly to my views, but when the last bull market ended, many were watching for a slow bull, while I kept holding onto the four-year cycle theory, telling everyone that where there is a bull market, there will definitely be a bear market. As for whether my judgment will continue to be correct this time, let's leave it to time to verify."Maji's Three Short Positions 'Bleeding Heavily': Collecting Funding Fees While Bleeding, The Cost of Directional Bets"
The market keeps climbing, but Maji's three short positions are collectively "bleeding" (╥﹏╥).
Look at this brutal ledger:
🔴 $BTC 5X short: unrealized loss about 12.03 million, liquidation price 135,000;
🔴 $ETH 5X short: unrealized loss about 3.36 million, liquidation price 3,671;
🔴 $SOL 7X short: unrealized loss about 5.51 million, liquidation price 293.
All three wounds are expanding simultaneously, with total unrealized losses exceeding 20 million. The only small consolation is that funding fees have recovered about 11.4 million, but compared to the daily growing unrealized losses, this amount is just a drop in the bucket (；´д｀)ゞ.
The most fatal issue is that these three massive short positions have completely shifted from "long-short hedge protection" to "one-sided directional bets." As long as the upward trend continues, these three mountains will turn into a real meat grinder, bleeding while recovering.
However, their margin is over 100 million, and the liquidation prices are very far away, so they can endure. What lessons does this teach us ordinary people?
First, don't blindly copy the big players' trades. They have over 100 million to short and can afford to pay funding fees; retail investors following with high leverage would have been liquidated long ago.
Second, don't stubbornly hold losing positions. Unrealized losses are not scary; what's scary is being wrong on the direction and still stubbornly holding for face.
Big market moves are coming, manage your positions well, and don't become cannon fodder in directional battles (ง •_•)ง.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.#三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓 Global AI computing power construction continues to drive high-end storage, and the market generally expects the high prosperity of storage to continue until 2027. After the earnings announcement, the stock price slightly declined because the final operating profit was slightly lower than some analysts' optimistic expectations. Increased subsequent supply of HBM and a slowdown in AI capital expenditure may both suppress storage chip prices.$SOL
The ETF redeemed $19.16 million in one day, marking the worst day since last December. How is SOL still holding above 102?
I'm looking at the net outflow on October 27, where after offsetting subscriptions and redemptions, the redemption side exceeded by $19.16 million. The last time it was worse was on December 3 last year with $32.19 million, and for more than ten months after that, this warning line was not touched. Normally, such a level of capital withdrawal should at least cause some market shake.
But the result is, the current price is 102.6, up 1.4% in 24 hours, with a low touching only 100.4, not even really testing the 100 whole number support. The fee rate of 0.01% is basically neutral, and the contract holdings of $3.25 billion have not seen significant withdrawals.
My interpretation is that the pain on the redemption side has not transmitted to the price side. Either the profit-taking is orderly and not panic-driven, or someone on the exchange is quietly absorbing it. Either way, it indicates that the selling pressure at this level is not out of control.
Taking a stance: as long as 100 does not break, SOL is in a consolidation and bottoming pattern, and I will not add short positions. If one day the daily close falls below 100, then I will reconsider.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 The Federal Reserve held steady, keeping interest rates between 3.75% and 4%, and the market took it as dovish, cheering a bit. I advise you not to get too excited just yet.
The real signal isn't in the word "pause," but in what Powell said: he personally admitted that "credit spreads on some assets have already widened," and also mentioned that "the AI boom is not immune to the impact of interest rates." This is the Fed Chair pointing out the most vulnerable part of risk assets.
Don't forget, the market still prices in about a 90% chance of a rate hike in December. As long as oil prices don't fall, that knife is still hanging. Holding steady doesn't mean you're out of the woods.
Keep an eye on the 10-year U.S. Treasury and oil prices, not just the few platitudes from the press conference. Whether $BTC can stay calm through December is still up in the air.
Are you betting on a rate hike in December or not? In 2023, when exchanges collectively delisted privacy coins, I remember it clearly. I told people back then that ZEC and the like were doomed; once compliance tightened, it was over.
Today is its tenth anniversary, and I've been proven wrong quite loudly. I just tested it: OKX spot at 1319, up 6.6% in 24 hours, Binance 6.5%, both matching. The holding volume is 164 million USD, with a fee rate of only 0.01%. This rally isn't driven by contracts; it's real money buying in.
The mainnet launched today in 2016, ten years ago. It was repeatedly delisted by exchanges in the UK and Europe several times, and every now and then people shouted it was dead. Now it's back above 1300.
My view: The demand for privacy is real, and the more it's suppressed, the stronger it becomes. I don't short this coin; it's been at the table for ten years, which in itself is the answer.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 SK Hynix's Q3 revenue surpassed 100 trillion KRW for the first time, and its stock price surged 12% straight, with market value visibly approaching $1.2 trillion.
The storage sector is genuinely booming with real money, not just hype. I glanced at OKX's SNDK contract, currently at 1382, up 6% in 24 hours, with a high of 1392.8. Samsung and Micron are in the same boat; HBM capacity is being fully consumed by AI servers.
Some say the storage cycle has peaked and it's time to exit. I tend to think not so soon—this demand cycle is fundamentally different from past mobile cycles. Of course, I haven't timed cycles well before; last time I was early on storage by half a year and got slapped hard.
So I won't try to guess the top and short now; going with the trend is much more comfortable than trying to pick a top against it.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Looking at the two earnings reports side by side tonight, the flavor comes through.
Microsoft's new quarter capital expenditure soared by 30% year-on-year, spending 45 billion USD in one quarter, still heavily investing in AI; on the other hand, Google's advertising revenue didn't meet expectations.
One is real cash definitely being spent, the other is revenue starting to discount. Capital expenditure is still accelerating, but the monetization side is already catching its breath — this scissors gap is often where bubbles first crack.
$BTC and these tech giants are now tied together, all pricing in "AI is always good." When the market starts seriously calculating this account, whoever turns slowly will step on a landmine.
Do you believe this round of capex will ultimately turn into profit?Bloomberg said someone used Hyperliquid's crude oil perpetual contracts to scam, placing orders piling up to $170 million, but in the end only pocketed $119,000.
Many people's first reaction to this number is that it's weak. I actually think the opposite — fake orders of $170 million only scammed this little, which shows the depth of this market is stronger than outsiders think. If liquidity were really poor, these orders would have already pierced the price; there wouldn't be this much margin.
I've personally had my orders eaten on thin markets, so I know well that this kind of activity looks tempting but getting bitten once is just feeding the other side.
HYPE is currently just over 80, down only 0.6% in 24 hours; the market has voted with its feet, so this matter is at most just noise. What really needs attention is never the scam itself, but who is hoarding positions behind this unpopular crude oil contract —
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 The name Liquid Network has hardly been mentioned in forums over the past two years. But tonight it made headlines in the worst way: someone exploited a vulnerability in Elements to forge the minting of 4,000 L-BTC, which were exchanged for real Bitcoin, totaling about $320 million.
The details are even more interesting. A white hat returned 3,400 coins and kept 600 for themselves — at BTC's current price of $81,000, that's about $48 million. The federation multisig keys were not leaked, meaning it wasn't a cold wallet theft; the coins were created out of thin air during the issuance process.
I've always thought that the real risk of sidechains backed by federated multisig is never about how strong hackers are, but the very fact of 'coins being created out of thin air.' This time, a low-probability event played out, and $320 million was just brazenly conjured.
Leaving a note: the whereabouts of those 600 coins should have more story behind them.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ Can SanDisk's storage business sustain its high growth? Data center business can maintain mid-to-high growth under certain conditions, but it won't be an eternal explosive growth; consumer business continues to drag behind; overall it is "structurally strong, cyclical with a peak"
✅ The confidence to support sustained high growth
1. NBM long-term contracts lock capacity (the most core guaranteed minimum)
8 long-term contract customers, guaranteed contracts worth $93.9 billion, average contract length 4 years; half of the bits in FY27 and two-thirds in FY28 are locked in. This means the lower bound of this revenue is stable, not fully dependent on spot market fluctuations. Demand sources are AI inference KV Cache, Agent intelligent agents, with NAND usage per AI server three times that of traditional servers; this demand line is still in early stages. Management judges supply-demand tightness will last at least until after 2027.
2. Business structure shift
Data center bit share raised from 12% to 38%, continuously squeezing consumer business weight; HBF high-bandwidth flash, QLC Stargate new products take over, capturing cloud providers' inference storage demand.
3. Supply constraints: conservative expansion by manufacturers, many capacity resources prioritized for HBM, NAND new supply release is slow, short-term rapid oversupply is unlikelyI'll take a side first: This time the FOMC won't move the interest rate, which isn't bearish for BTC, at most it's no news. The result came out at midnight, maintaining 4%, with 10 votes in favor and 2 against — the two opposing votes are because they think the rate should be raised, not lowered. According to the usual script, the market has to panic a bit, but Bitcoin hovered above 80,000, now at 81,300, with a 24-hour low of just 80,400. Those who shouted that it would break below 80,000 a couple of days ago have been shaken out again.
Having passed the interest rate hurdle, the market's reaction is no reaction; still dead water. I tend to think it will grind sideways for a few days, waiting for the spot market to choose its direction; chasing shorts or longs won't get you anywhere.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Storage stocks have been delivering explosive earnings reports these past two days: SK Hynix says memory shortages will last until 2030, HBM4 is becoming the main force, and the stock price keeps rising. The few short positions I hold in storage are indeed looking bad on paper, but I’m not pretending otherwise.
However, what I’m betting on has never been the specific numbers tonight, but rather how long the combination of "unlimited demand + free financing" can hold up. The more impressive the earnings and the more extreme the pricing, the harsher the crack once interest rates come down like a knife.
This is a low-frequency, big bet—not opened today, nor do I plan to admit defeat just because of one bullish candle. I can hold onto the floating losses because my thesis hasn’t been broken, not because I’m stubborn.
What do you think? Is this "super cycle" in storage driven by real demand, or just another round of hoarding for machine installations?Under the shadowless lamp, the heart has already stopped beating, yet the suction device is still drawing blood back—Meta has raised its initial financing from $35 billion to $37.5 billion, pushing the potential total to $97.5 billion; this is not just a simple chest expansion, but turning up the extracorporeal circulation machine to a higher level.
First, look at the vital signs: the annual capital expenditure guidance is $135 billion to $145 billion, like a heart with hypertrophied myocardium at its limit, oxygen consumption far outpacing coronary blood supply. Nvidia has committed $3 billion, AMD and Broadcom have expressed interest, amounts to be confirmed. Suppliers are selling equipment while simultaneously transfusing blood to customers; this is not a normal coronary artery bypass, but more like sewing donor vessels back into the same already calcified circulation: blood flow appears restored, but plaques remain in the vessel walls.
$xIBM’s linkage is not the primary lesion but the ST-segment elevation on the monitor. The real layers to cut open are threefold: first, financing is the preload, compute capital expenditure is the afterload; heavy preload infusion with no reduction in afterload will thin the ventricular wall. Second, supplier investment and equipment sales are interlocked, equivalent to heparinized blood autotransfusion—short-term perfusion pressure looks good, but long-term coagulation pathways activation remains to be seen. Third, returns must be reflected in free cash flow and depreciation/amortization, not just the indicators at the moment the data center powers on.
$xIBM here is like intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography: it won’t decide whether to continue surgery for you, but it can reveal volume overload and myocardial ischemia in advance. If Meta’s compute orders are genuine demand, this surgery is a radical resection; if supplier subscriptions just circle equipment payments back into orders, it’s repeatedly defibrillating a stopped heart—resuscitation does not equal recovery.
Right now, I’m only watching one indicator: after extracorporeal circulation is withdrawn, can the right heart pump blood out on its own? If it can’t, all those beautiful anastomoses before are just stitches.$ZEC The current market for ZEC is completely dominated by bears holding their ground.
Watching it slowly decline day by day, the top whales in the futures market have pushed their short positions up to 90%. But the spot market is completely opposite; Grayscale silently bought over $41 million worth last Monday.
Looking at the chip structure for the second half-year futures, the base positions below are basically held tightly. Institutions are quietly accumulating in the spot market, while whales are blindly shorting in the futures. This kind of inverted situation with spot buying and futures clustered with negative interest rates means that any sudden buying surge will definitely trigger a cascade of short liquidations.
Let's see how long these bears can hold out.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇On the board, the seventh horizontal line of pawns suddenly loosened—the hundred-million-level pieces pressed into the center within three days, then withdrew 770 million after two rounds. This is not a strategic attack, but a probing sacrifice. IBIT's isolated advance of 110.3 million appears on the surface as Black reestablishing the elephant's path, but in essence, it's just a lone soldier infiltration without follow-up from rooks or cannons, unable to sustain pressure on the king's wing. The net position over five days slightly turned negative, indicating the opponent started exchanging pieces under time pressure rather than building strength.
The pivot at the 800,000 mark still hangs in the balance. The pawn chain remains intact, but the baseline lost a diagonal elephant's protection. Institutional buying has yet to place pieces on key squares, and the price action combined with capital flow shows a typical "piece disconnection"—you have heavy pieces but no open lines, unable to attack the king. With the FOMC's forced move approaching, the opponent is likely waiting for the other side to reveal their intentions on the rear wing before deciding whether to castle long or push pawns directly.
The linked target XUSAR's flank line is even more subtle: it resembles a knight hanging on the sidelines, seemingly ready to jump in but actually controlled by the opponent's pawns occupying two forward outposts. As long as the main force doesn't achieve a substantial breakthrough on the board, the flank's restraint remains just that—restraint, not crossfire. A true strategist won't commit all rear wing pawns before the opponent finishes the opening sequence. This current inflow replenishment at most counts as a tactical retreat in the midgame, not an endgame verdict.
What I am watching is whether the pawn structure is permanently broken. If in the next two or three trading days, inflows still rely on lone soldiers advancing without coordinated rook and elephant support, then the 800,000 pivot will sooner or later be overwhelmed by stacked pawns. The greatest danger now is not losing the position outright, but appearing to hold it while the outer lines are actually empty. Before the FOMC move, whoever reveals their bottom cards first will be checkmated first. #btcetfflowswingsBrent crude oil is unloading downward from the high-level cantilever beam at $109.74, but the pile foundation of the Strait of Hormuz is still oozing slurry—don’t be fooled by diplomatic rhetoric; this is a load reduction without completing geological surveys.
The oil price decline is not the building topping out, just a brief pause of the construction elevator on a floor. Iran’s Supreme Leader has set ceasefire conditions, the US has warned Gulf countries to prepare for possible actions, and Trump has yet to make a decision; putting these messages into the same structural diagram, diplomatic hopes are live loads, military risks are seismic forces, and Hormuz’s shipping and energy security are the main load-bearing pipelines buried under the base slab. They don’t appear on the curtain wall but determine whether the whole building can resist lateral displacement. Once shipping costs rise, it’s like the floor slab’s deflection exceeding limits first; cracks will propagate from logistics, refining, and insurance nodes all the way to the valuation facade.
Tokenized US stock assets like $xUSAR are more like a tradable curtain wall: visually linked to US stocks, but the nodes hang on clearing channels, dollar liquidity, risk appetite, and underlying asset mapping. A short-term oil price drop can reduce some dead load on the upper structure, easing inflation expectations and brightening the facade of risk assets; but military escalation is a sudden horizontal force, first hitting the curtain wall connectors rather than the fundamental beams and columns. Translating a single bearish oil candle directly into upper structure stability is like mistaking decorative cladding for load-bearing walls.
What really needs monitoring is construction quality: whether ceasefire conditions have reached executable nodes, whether Gulf warnings have turned into shipping controls, whether Hormuz’s transit redundancies have been pressure-tested, and whether freight and insurance curves have formed continuous settlement. If escalation occurs, supply interruptions will be like uneven foundation settlement, first tearing logistics joints, then redistributing force transmission paths among energy, shipping, and tokenized US stocks. This wave of oil price decline is currently only temporary support, not topping out; the linkage of $xUSAR is not simply positive or negative correlation, but whether the structural force transmission path is intact.
Before the pile foundation of Hormuz is retested and the freight pipeline pressure-tested, treating the tokenized US stocks’ upper-level gloss as a stable foundation is like using curtain wall glass to resist seismic shear forces. #oilfallsamidiranrisks#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ $GOOGL dropped 7% after hours, even though the cloud business clearly exceeded expectations.
Google Cloud brought in $30.7 billion this quarter, more than the market anticipated.
But the search segment didn’t meet expectations, which is what concerns me the most.
There’s also a strange item on the income statement:
Last quarter, SpaceX and Anthropic equity valuations gave it a windfall gain of 99 billion, but this quarter it reversed to an 8.6 billion loss.
I don’t pay much attention to such paper gains and losses—they change with every funding round.
What bothers me is that search is slowing down, AI spending continues unabated, and cash flow is thinning quarter by quarter.
Gemini users are growing rapidly, but this earnings report doesn’t say if ad revenue is keeping pace.
I usually don’t buy into such after-hours drops; if it doesn’t recover at least half the loss tomorrow, I’ll set it aside for now.
Do you think search is being eaten up by AI, or is the market overreacting again?
$GOOGL $MSFT All three coins rise together, are the short positions being lifted again?
$BTC: Slow rise in the second half of the night, shorts hurt first
$81,489, 24h up 0.93%, high $81,820, low $80,397, long-short ratio 2.02 (4h ago 2.05), open interest $2.49 billion. In the last 90 minutes, shorts liquidated 1.303 million U, longs liquidated 0.01 million U. Climbing in the second half of the night, unable to reach $81,820 then retreating to $80,400 to consolidate.
$ETH: Climbing from a low position, shorts take the first hit
$2,368, 24h up 0.90%, high $2,388, low $2,323, long-short ratio 2.52 (4h ago 2.53), open interest $1.456 billion. In the last 90 minutes, shorts liquidated 1.265 million U, longs liquidated 0.11 million U. Rising overnight, unable to break above $2,388 is just false hope.
$SOL: The fastest rising among the three coins, shorts can't escape
$102.72, 24h up 1.55%, high $103.69, low $100.47, long-short ratio 3.09 (4h ago 3.21), open interest $327 million. In the last 90 minutes, shorts liquidated 0.03 million U, longs liquidated 0 U. Reached $102.72 all the way, only breaking through $103.69 will open up space.
Summary: Slowly rising overnight, all liquidations are shorts.
When prices rise, don't just look at the price, see who is taking the hit.
For record only, not investment advice
#ThisWeekFOMCRateDecisionToBeAnnounced #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $BTC $ETH $SOL Four price levels, four expressions: Don't rush to praise the red board, and don't rush to stabilize on small dips (｡•̀ᴗ-)✧
$RE: 0.3646, up 3.1% in 24 hours, but the quote is almost stuck at the volume-weighted average price of 0.36469. It has risen, but the price hasn't truly left the average trading zone, more like repeatedly testing the door within the range. Let's first see if it can lift the quote away from the average price, don't just focus on the red board (¬_¬)
$ETH: 2314.35, up 0.2% for the day, but in the previous hour, active sell transactions accounted for about 53%, and the price dropped about 0.4%. Local sellers are more active, the small red on the daily chart hasn't completely covered the short-term retreat, pressure remains ⊙﹏⊙
$NEAR: 4.437, down only 0.4% in 24 hours, but in the completed 12-hour period, it moved from 4.657 to 4.459, an actual drop of about 4.3%. A small daily dip does not equal stability, the recent low position is more worth noting (｡•́︿•̀｡)
$RENDER: 1.68, down 1.5% in 24 hours, the lowest in the range is 1.674, the quote is only 0.006 higher, still lying low. Even if there is a pullback, it hasn't left the landing point high, short-term weakness, first respect the fact that the price is close to the low end (´･_･`)
Just a market record: rising is not necessarily strong, small dips are not necessarily stable.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
When it comes to taking profits, it's much harder than cutting losses because you have to overcome greed. For my own floating profit positions, I usually handle them in these ways:
The first type is long-term bullish positions that keep hitting new highs; I sell in batches based on news. For example, with $HYPE I held before, my initial expectation was around 70, but when the market got hot and KOLs started calling it, my target shot up to 100. Then Hayes publicly called to sell, and seeing the momentum shift, I didn't wait for 100 and sold around 68 directly to him. For these kinds of coins, expectations must adjust with the market.
The second type is short-term explosive tokens like $RAVE. I don't try to guess the top; instead, I use a trailing take-profit method, reducing my position by 20% to 30% each time it jumps up a bit, pushing forward until fully cleared.
The third type, like $BTC, mainstream coins, I usually don't gamble on unrealistic moonshots. When it reaches historical highs or key resistance levels, I definitely take profits in batches to withdraw my principal first.
The fourth type depends on the fundamentals of the base position. If the fundamentals are solid and the position just breaks even or has slight profit, I might reduce 20-30% to lower cost; but if the fundamentals are weak and it's just riding hype, once it turns from floating loss to floating profit, don't hesitate—cut 50% or even clear out to protect profits.
Those who can buy are apprentices; those who can sell are masters. How do you usually take profits? Do you hold stubbornly or sell in batches? #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Don't rush to say BlackRock is "dumping"? First, look at the origin of this $ETH 👀
Tonight, BlackRock's routing address transferred out about $105 million worth of ETH, which at first glance looks like a large sell-off. But looking closely: from 18:29 to 18:35, address 0xC8c5…5b95 first received 45,242.86 ETH, then sent it in two transactions to Coinbase Prime.
Comparing with yesterday's US stock ETF data, ETHA had a net outflow of about $104.7 million in one day, the amounts almost match on both sides. Looking at October's records: out of 19 trading days, 14 had outflows, except for 10/5, the times were all concentrated between 18:09 and 18:45, totaling 467,946 ETH; and Farside shows zero outflow for ETHA on 10/13 and 10/23, with no activity from this address the next trading day either.
So, this looks more like a T+1 settlement after the previous day's ETF redemption, not a spontaneous spot market dump 📉. What really needs attention is tonight's ETHA data: if redemptions continue, the spot selling pressure on ETH will remain. 🔍#三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓
Samsung's Q3 profit is expected to increase nearly 8 times, with the full financial report to be revealed today.
Preliminary results: Operating profit of 107.4 trillion KRW, up 782.5% year-on-year, compared to 12.17 trillion last year; the first time a single quarter has exceeded 100 trillion, setting a record for the fourth consecutive quarter.
Revenue of 195 trillion KRW, up 127% year-on-year, but slightly below the market expectation of 201.9 trillion.
The logic behind the increase is simple: AI infrastructure requires storage, DRAM and HBM are in short supply and prices are rising, with supply unable to meet demand.
Interestingly, on the day of the profit record, the stock price actually fell 2.42%, having already dropped more than 25% from the June high.
I think the market doesn't distrust the profit, but fears that this price increase may not be sustainable; the full financial report will focus on how much the semiconductor division actually contributed.
#三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓 Interest rates remain unchanged, but hawkish signals are stronger.
The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.75%–4.00%, but the 10-to-2 vote revealed divisions, with two officials advocating a 25 basis point hike, indicating internal vigilance on inflation is far from relaxed. The market's expectation for easing was dashed; holding steady does not mean a pivot, as inflation remains the core threshold.
Upcoming data fluctuations will directly rewrite December expectations; every CPI and employment report could become a catalyst.
The rhythm of gold, silver, U.S. stocks, and digital currencies will continue to swing with interest rate expectations in the short term. Before the trend becomes clear, position management is more important than directional judgment. $BTC $ETH #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布