Orbit Post Sitemap
$IRYS The recent wave of liquidation selling looked fierce, but it didn't even break through 0.033.
All the sell orders dumped on the market were quietly absorbed.
The shorts are bearing the interest costs every day, holding on hard, and just now a position was liquidated.
With such strong support at the bottom, this kind of money-losing stubborn shorting will sooner or later be pushed up and called out one by one.
#IRYS
$IRYS
👇🔥Tonight's Federal Reserve decision, the real risk may not be whether to raise interest rates, but how much upward momentum the market has left after the positive news is priced in!📉
📊 The market generally expects rates to remain unchanged, but funds are more concerned about future policy guidance. If no rate hike has long been priced in, simply maintaining the current rate may not be enough to drive the market higher.
🐻 My bearish scenario is: BTC first tests around 82000, then watch for selling pressure; if the rebound fails, pay attention below 76000. If ETH breaks below 2300, then watch below 2150.
⚠️ But this is not a certain trend. If the Fed takes a dovish stance and BTC breaks out with volume and holds above 82000, the bearish logic needs to be reassessed.
Brothers, are you going long or short tonight? Let's chat in the comments, and you can also check out my pinned post! #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Bitcoin spent most of October fluctuating around $80,000 😐. On-chain data provides a straightforward explanation: this price level is exactly stuck between two key cost lines.
The resistance above comes from spot ETF buyers. Glassnode shows that the weighted average holding cost of spot Bitcoin ETFs across the U.S. is about $81,500. Every time the price rebounds to this area, it encounters a batch of holders who want to "break even and exit" — they entered at highs from late 2025 to early 2026, have been underwater for months, and are eager to break even 😮💨. There are two layers of support below: the real market average price is about $77,500–78,000; short-term holders (holding less than 155 days) have an average cost of about $74,600. The $80,000 level is sandwiched in the middle, facing selling pressure above but not yet touching the defense line below.
Zooming out, the underlying structure is actually more stable 📊. The realized price across the entire network is about $54,000, and long-term holders (holding over six months) have an average cost of only about $49,000. The short-term tug-of-war is a battle of cost lines, but the long-term support remains at a much lower level. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 $BNB I issued a coin myself for a real test.
As a result, within 40 seconds, there were 23 transactions; in the first second alone, 7 addresses bought simultaneously, each exactly hitting the 1% single wallet limit. They sold their holdings just seconds after buying—pure scripts snatching the opening.
After 40 seconds, I counted and found only 4 genuine small retail investors. I thought I was issuing coins, but actually, I was handing out entry tickets to bots.
What’s even funnier is the profit and loss after two and a half hours: among 25 holding addresses, 24 were at a loss, and the only one making money earned 4 cents.
This is the reality on-chain: bots grab everything in the first second and pump the price, retail investors come in to take the bags, and in the end, everyone ends up giving money to the trap. Have you ever issued a coin yourself? Were the first-second buyers humans or scripts?The night before the Federal Reserve: Good news already priced in, should you reduce positions before the rebound?
At 2 a.m. Thursday, the Federal Reserve's decision will be revealed⏰. Interest rate futures have priced in a "hold steady" at over 90%, up from just 50% two weeks ago — this good news has long been fully digested🍽️. At the moment of the announcement, how much incremental buying power remains?🤔
Yet the data offers no dovish escape: durable goods orders rose 1.8%, the strongest in five months; consumer confidence at 91.7 far exceeds 81; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched 4.997📈. With the economy this strong, if Powell mentions a rate hike in December, current pricing will have to be reshuffled🔄.
$BTC is hovering above 80,000, during the day testing 79,300, with 80,500–81,000 already broken. Every retreat to 80,000 feels like loosening trapped positions, creating the illusion that it "won't fall"; if 78,500–79,000 breaks, the next support is around 76,000⚠️.
$ETH is weaker, consolidating between 2,310–2,335, with 2,346 suppressing multi-million short positions; 2,246 and 2,235 are the real tests, breaking 2,240 points to 2,200📉.
Interest rates remain between 3.75–4.0, so capital is not cheap💸. At this level, if there is a rebound, consider reducing positions first; don't rush to chase🚫. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 Event: Tonight's Federal Reserve decision: Inflation keeps heating up, but will rate hikes be paused? Washington faces a credibility test. Let's lay out the original information first: According to the latest Reuters survey, among 100 economists interviewed, 94 expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% tonight. The implied probability of a rate hike this time from CME Fed Funds futures is only about 10%, and Goldman Sachs' equity volatility division estimates the swap-implied probability even lower at 7%. However, inflation data does not support this stance: September's core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, with the annual rate rising to 2.6%; the three-month annualized growth rate of core CPI surged from 2.0% to 3.4%. After the September CPI data release, the probability of a rate hike in October briefly rose to about 50%—this sharp swing itself reflects the market's deep uncertainty about the Fed's path. Bank of America Securities is currently the most notable dissenter on Wall Street; its economist team maintains the October rate hike forecast, believing the inflation data provides sufficient reason. BofA rate strategist Mark Cabana warned in a report that if Washington chooses to pause without a clear explanation, there is a risk of repeating the "dovish mistake" from the July press conference, which could put significant pressure on the dollar and the Treasury yield curve. Event-driven market moves usually unfold in two phases: the first phase is sentiment, and the second phase is the fundamentals taking over; Current market coordinates: · BTC current price 80,568.30, 24h +0.21% · ETH current price 2 At 2 AM tonight, Bitcoin options are outrageously expensive.
The "implied volatility" in the quote is 36.1,
Simply put: the market charges you as if it will fluctuate 36% over a year, but recently it only fluctuated 26.9.
The extra 9.2 is the "surprise fee" paid in advance.
This contract is half betting on price movement, half betting on "something big happening tonight."
Once 2 AM passes, regardless of price movement, the "something big" half will instantly evaporate.
So if the coin price rises, the contract actually falls.
You’re not seeing things; it’s the surprise fee being refunded.
Don’t chase before the event.
Buy after it lands; the same bet will be over 30% cheaper.SOXL current price is 104, with a floating profit just over 20%.
First, let's talk about the fuel behind this surge. Since the night of October 27, two large accounts have net covered about $7.22 million SOXL short positions, reducing shorts from 103,500 shares to 25,000 shares, a 75.8% cut. While SOXL surged, the total on-chain positions decreased by 30%, mainly due to short covering rather than retail investors chasing at the top; it's the shorts conceding.
A few days ago, SOXL broke below 92 million, and I exited with a floating profit above 101. My cost basis was at the bottom of that panic sell-off.
But currently, shorts haven't fully exited; about $125 million in short positions remain pressing at the top, with retail investors' long-to-short ratio at 6.91:1.
On fundamentals, TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging price increased by 10%–20%, and customers "place orders as long as delivery dates can be promised." Bank of America raised Nvidia's target price to 500, with AI data center TAM reaching 17 trillion by 2030.
Price hikes, target price upgrades, and short covering—all three drivers are present simultaneously. I think holding on a bit longer is fine.
#Meta融资增至975亿美元，英伟达认购30亿
#英特尔代工转型迎来Terafab新变量
#聪明钱追踪The Federal Reserve is meeting these days, and the group chat has started reciting the script again: if they cut rates, it goes up to 85,000; if not, it crashes to 75,000. Those two sentences together cover both rise and fall, which means they say nothing.
It all depends on where it stands now: 80,600, up 0.25. Today it’s been hovering between 80,000 and 81,500 all day, with volume even smaller than last night’s wave. This kind of low-volume wait-for-news pattern doesn’t look like someone is grabbing chips; it looks more like everyone is hiding.
After the result, I guess two scenarios: if good, it will surge, breaking 81,500, then we’ll see if the pullback holds; if bad, it will first crash, and the 80,000 round number will probably be tested. I won’t bet on direction in advance; I’ll wait to see which side the closing price stands on. If it holds, I’ll move; if not, I’ll stay short.A major whale is sitting on millions in unrealized losses across $BTC , $ETH and $SOL shorts, yet funding income is providing some cushion.
$BTC: $10.59M loss | $3.17M funding earned
$ETH: $1.55M loss | $4.30M funding earned
$SOL: $4.77M loss | $3.83M funding earned
Over $11.3M in funding collected, but the positions remain underwater. A reminder that even large players can endure serious drawdowns, and funding alone doesn’t remove liquidation risk.#SKHynixQ3RevenueKRW100T OKX BTC 24-hour liquidation heatmap core data analysis, those looking to pick up chips should take a look!!!
Upper liquidity range:
Large amounts of long position liquidity waiting to be liquidated are concentrated around 82335, 83592, and 84789. The higher the position, the denser the liquidation layers are distributed. Breaking upward requires consuming a large amount of buy orders to sweep the upper long positions.
Lower liquidity range:
The areas around 79822, 78565, and 77309 gather thick short position liquidation zones. The liquidity brightness near 79822 is the highest, serving as the core support liquidation position below. Once broken, multiple layers of short positions await liquidation further down.
Current price position:
The current price is oscillating around 81078, caught between two large liquidity zones above and below. After a daytime surge touching the upper liquidity area, it quickly fell back, with frequent spikes and washouts. Both long and short liquidation pools are waiting for the market to trigger them.
Market logic:
Currently in a sandwich oscillation pattern, moving upward means harvesting high-level long positions, moving downward means smashing lower short positions. As the FOMC meeting approaches, funds are temporarily unwilling to choose a direction, grinding back and forth within the range, waiting for the news to land before deciding which side to harvest liquidity from.
For market review reference only, does not constitute any trading advice #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC Recently, I've been closely following the rhythm of $DOGE. After a period of low-level consolidation, selling pressure has gradually been absorbed, and signs of stabilization in the market are slowly emerging, with short-term funds starting to flow back in. Entered long positions after confirming the support level is effective, using 50x leverage, currently floating with a profit of 108.10%.
DOGE is a highly sentiment-driven asset, so fluctuations during the rally are quite frequent, with back-and-forth shakeouts testing patience. There's no need to exit hastily on minor pullbacks; just follow the plan and take profits in batches.
A wave of upward movement has already occurred, and resistance above is gradually approaching. Using 50x leverage carries very high risk, so strict risk control is essential. Once bullish momentum weakens or signs of stagnation appear, reduce positions promptly and avoid blindly chasing highs. $SOL $ETH #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $CRCL Two major banks took opposite views on the same day: Mizuho sees 43, Bernstein sees 145, a difference of more than three times.
Mizuho's bearish reason is quite fresh.
They tested with an AI assistant, asking where to put idle money. The AI mostly advises you to go for interest-bearing bank accounts and doesn't really recommend holding USDC idle without interest.
Circle almost entirely relies on reserve interest for income; if USDC decreases a bit, it earns a bit less.
After reading this, I found it somewhat reasonable but also a bit funny.
Most people holding stablecoins around me use them mainly for transfers and moving in and out of exchanges, not really for that little interest.
If you let AI manage your finances, of course it will advise you to save in banks.
The stock price is now around 80, with earnings coming out next Wednesday.
I'll keep an eye on this one first and wait to see if the USDC circulation volume rises or falls in the earnings report.
Do you usually hold your stablecoins to earn interest, or just use them as transit money?
$CRCL $COIN
#WillAIAdviseYouNotToHoldUSDC?Q: A $43,400 ZEC short position, did they really risk that much principal? A: You can't equate the two. Roughly calculated with 7x leverage, the corresponding margin is about $6,200, but the actual amount depends on the margin mode.
Q: Then how should I interpret this short position? A: The amount doesn't represent confidence; I'm more concerned about the ability to withstand adverse moves. If the price rebounds 1%, the unrealized loss would be about $434, which is already around 7% of the margin mentioned above, not including fees. I will watch if they reduce the position later and won't measure confidence by nominal amount.🧩 $ENA: Opportunities and Risks Behind Synthetic Dollar Innovation
Ethena is exploring a synthetic dollar system different from traditional bank deposit models, building a new digital dollar solution through crypto market mechanisms and hedging strategies.
🔍 Three key aspects to watch:
🔹 Stability Mechanism: Understand how the protocol maintains the price stability of the synthetic dollar and whether it can continue operating during severe market volatility.
🔹 Collateral and Hedging Risks: Price fluctuations of crypto assets, hedging position performance, and counterparty risks may all impact the overall system stability.
🔹 Redemption and Liquidity: Whether the redemption mechanism is reliable and if liquidity is sufficient under extreme market conditions are critical to assessing the protocol's resilience.
⚠️ Core Insight: Price stability does not mean no risk. What truly deserves study is not just whether the synthetic dollar can maintain its peg, but whether the entire mechanism can withstand stress when the market faces pressure.
For $ENA, long-term development requires sustained real demand, robust risk management, and transparent operational mechanisms.
Don’t just look at returns; pay attention to where the risks come from. DYOR.
#ENA #Ethena #DeFi #SyntheticDollar #CryptoMarket #RiskManagement$ETC is gearing up for a powerful bullish reversal as support holds firm.
Price structure is compressing tightly for an aggressive upward expansion.
EP
7.500 - 7.561
TP
7.850
8.150
8.500
SL
7.320
Sellers are losing traction rapidly while aggressive buyers accumulate positions near the lows. As long as this crucial defense line remains intact, a sharp impulsive breakout toward upper targets is locked in.
Let’s go $ETC $XRP whale holdings have reached their highest level since late 2022, yet the price continues to struggle. That contrast deserves more attention than the headline figure itself.
Whale concentration alone doesn't tell us whether investors are accumulating or simply moving existing tokens between wallets. Without stronger ETF inflows and clear evidence of fresh demand, it's difficult to interpret this as a bullish signal.
#StrategyQ3BTCGains 📊 Key Shift in BTC Exchange Fund Flows: Is Selling Pressure Brewing?
The 30-day average net inflow of $BTC to exchanges has turned positive for the first time since September 21, warranting close attention.
🔍 Core Data:
- 📈 October 28: 30-day net inflow average reached +182 BTC
- 📉 October 18: Still at -3,950 BTC
- ⚖️ In just 10 days, the indicator reversed by about 4,132 BTC
- 🛡️ During this fund flow shift, BTC price has held above $80,000.
Previously, during the downturns in February and June, exchange net inflows remained around 4,000–5,000 BTC daily for several consecutive weeks, after which BTC fell from $88,000 to $63,000 and from $81,000 to $60,000 respectively.
⚠️ The key difference this time: the current net inflow average is only +182 BTC, not yet reaching the levels seen during previous large-scale sell-offs.
The trend of holders moving assets to exchanges is changing, but this does not necessarily mean these BTC will be sold immediately.
🎯 Next signals to watch:
- Net inflow average surpassing +2,000 BTC: potential selling pressure on exchanges deserves further caution.
- BTC breaking below $80,000#SK海力士Q3 revenue surpasses 100 trillion KRW for the first time, with both revenue and operating profit greatly exceeding expectations. Q3 revenue reached 104.62 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of 328%, marking the first time in history that a single quarter exceeded 100 trillion; operating profit was 83.33 trillion KRW, up 632% year-on-year, with an astonishing operating profit margin of 80%. This operating profit is about 16% higher than JPMorgan's forecast, and revenue is about 7% above consensus, constituting a "double beat".
However, net profit is a clear contrast. Net profit was 39.78 trillion KRW, up 216% year-on-year but sharply down 58% quarter-on-quarter, and significantly below the market expectation of about 59.66 trillion KRW. The drag came from non-operating areas: exchange rate-related losses of about 11.63 trillion KRW, and valuation losses on Kioxia-related investment assets of about 22.92 trillion KRW, together reducing pre-tax profit to 50.71 trillion KRW, about 33% below consensus. In other words, the operational profitability is extremely strong, but non-operating financial items created a glaring gap.
The stock price reaction indicates the market chose to prioritize pricing the operational segment's outperformance rather than the net profit miss. The Korean stock rose more than 10% intraday, closing at about 1.487 million KRW;The Federal Reserve's rate decision is tomorrow early morning. The high probability of no rate hike mainly depends on how Waller will express his stance. Multiple Fed officials' intensive statements in October have been sending a signal: to proceed with tightening at a pace of "hiking every other meeting"—meaning a hike in September, skipping October, and hiking again in December.
Previously, New York Fed President John Williams clearly stated "no urgent action needed in October" and hinted that there would be only one more rate hike this year; Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said policymakers might need more time to assess the data; Governor Waller summarized this position as: rate hikes "do not need to occur at consecutive meetings but should be done within a reasonable timeframe." The September FOMC meeting minutes also confirmed this framework: all 19 officials supported the September hike, and "most" officials thought one more hike this year was appropriate.
So, it is highly likely that the FOMC will not hike this time, but Waller's view on December's action could be key: 1) Does Waller need to explain to the market how he views the inflation trend?
2) Will he emphasize more that inflation will strengthen curve flattening and push short-term rates higher; or will he emphasize more that tightening financial conditions might cause the curve to steepen again?
3) Will he say something like "any further rate adjustments will depend on data trends, outlook evolution, and risk balance," or remain completely silent on the policy path?
If the Fed indeed does not hike this time and is vague about the December path, the market will start focusing on the present. Tomorrow early morning, there are also earnings reports from Microsoft and Google; if the earnings show faster AI commercialization acceleration than market expectations,
then indeed we can expect a rally before the Anthropic roadshow.
Reposted from qinbafrank$GRVT could face a short squeeze if crowded short positions start getting liquidated. Forced buybacks can accelerate upward moves, especially in a low-float token.
But a squeeze isn’t guaranteed. Limited circulating supply can amplify volatility in both directions, so chasing either side carries risk.
Watch funding, open interest, and price action closely. Avoid forcing entries, and keep risk controls tight.The three major mainstream coins show a divergence in capital flow, with spot buying beginning to take over
In the past 24 hours, the capital flow trends for BTC, ETH, and SOL have shown similar characteristics: a decrease in contract-side funds and an increase in spot-side buying. Compared to previous markets driven by leverage, the current capital structure is becoming more stable.
BTC stands out the most, with a net outflow of $155 million in contracts and a net inflow of $14.78 million in spot, accumulating a total spot inflow of $381 million over the past 3 days, indicating that funds continue to absorb chips during the pullback.
ETH has a net spot inflow of $13.26 million in the past 24 hours and a cumulative inflow of $110 million over the past 3 days, showing signs of short-term recovery. However, there is still a net spot outflow of $542 million over the past 30 days, indicating that mid-term capital pressure has not been fully relieved.
SOL has a net spot inflow of $4.51 million, but a cumulative contract outflow of $62.47 million over the past 3 days. Spot buying has begun, but participation willingness in the derivatives market remains insufficient.
Overall, BTC's capital structure is the most stable, ETH is in a recovery phase, and SOL requires more incremental funds for confirmation. The current stage resembles a repricing after leverage cool-down rather than a clear trend reversal.#Strategy Earnings Preview: BTC Book Gains Rebound Significantly ✅Core Background
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), as the world's largest enterprise-level BTC holder, holds over 840,000 bitcoins with an average cost of about $75,400. According to the new crypto asset accounting standard FASB ASU 2023‑08, profits must be recorded quarterly at fair value based on coin price. During the previous coin price correction phase, huge unrealized losses were recorded, but with BTC price recovery, this quarter's book gains have seen a significant repair, and the balance sheet has clearly improved.
✅Earnings Highlights
1. Book Gains Recovery
The rising coin price drives huge unrealized gains, causing net profit in the earnings report to rebound significantly. Note this is book profit, not realized cash profit; as long as BTC is not sold, gains can fluctuate and retract with coin price.
2. Balance Sheet Improvement, Financing Capacity Opens
After the pressure of unrealized losses eases, the company's net asset value rises, facilitating further capital raising through stock or bond issuance, creating conditions for continued BTC accumulation. The company has also been repurchasing preferred shares to reduce long-term dividend payment pressure and optimize financial structure.
3. Market Sentiment Indicator
As the BTC "enterprise hoarding benchmark," strong earnings will positively boost bullish sentiment in the crypto market. Many traders view MSTR as a high-beta proxy for BTC. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $xQQQ $SAK
Just finished scanning the market, today's行情 is really fierce! Especially STAK, traversing the current market volatility, one realizes that infrastructure public chains are inherently unsuitable to have their value measured by short-term market fluctuations.
The twists of macro expectations and the tides of market sentiment will carry most emerging assets up and down with the waves. Amid the noise, most people are accustomed to using short-term price changes as a yardstick, hastily judging a project's success or failure, rarely pausing to examine the track the project chooses to cultivate.
STAK anchors on privacy decentralized infrastructure; the narrative fulfillment of this track is never an overnight explosion but a long-term foundation building. When the tide recedes, it is precisely the window to weed out the chaff and identify the project's long-term resilience.
Rather than chasing fleeting market swings, what is more worth continuously tracking is the trajectory of its technological iteration, the sedimentation of node ecology, and whether the initial concept can be realized step by step into verifiable results.
True underlying infrastructure must go through multiple bull and bear cycles to reveal its true quality. There is no need to be swayed by the current market noise; extend your vision and patiently await the ecological narrative and practical implementation to resonate in sync. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
The FOMC meeting from October 27 to 28 is approaching, and the market is pricing in a 92.8% chance of a pause in rate hikes. However, inflation is not very good, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is still around 5%.
It's best not to treat the pause as good news right now. If the expectation for a rate hike in December worsens, the Nasdaq will definitely plunge, and BTC will follow.
Currently, inflation expectations are rising, employment is too strong, and long-term yields cannot go down. Any one of these exceeding expectations will tighten conditions even if there is a pause. On the crypto side, don't get carried away just because ETFs are seeing inflows; before liquidity returns, all rebounds could be illusions.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC #Can Robinhood's trading business growth continue? Robinhood's trading business growth can continue, but only if diversification plans succeed and strict regulatory hurdles are overcome. Wall Street analysts see the company's future growth no longer relying solely on commissions and traditional retail trading, but linked to its ability to transform into a comprehensive financial platform.$ETH brothers, check out this massive on-chain short squeeze!
BTC, ETH, and SOL are all shorted together, with a total position value of $715 million. Just BTC+ETH alone have $460 million in short positions—such a huge capital scale is terrifying.
The entry points aren't low either, and the current floating losses have already been pulled up.
It feels like they're deliberately suppressing the price, forcibly holding it down.
On one side, there are nearly $200 million worth of ETH longs chasing the price, and on the other, this massive short whale with terrifying volume. It's a battle between two giant whales on both sides.
Now with election regulation news hanging overhead, both sides are gambling on whether the longs will be liquidated first or the shorts will be squeezed. This market situation is really exciting to watch.
⚠️ Market observation only, not trading advice
Feels like they're deliberately suppressing the price $ETH $ETH #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Since the U.S. stock market opened, it has shifted from rising to falling indexes. This is not because the AI narrative is weak, but as I mentioned earlier, approaching the second half of the U.S. stock market, the guiding narrative shifts from AI earnings reports to Fed policy. The market basically expects no rate hike in October, and even a hawkish pause in October has been fully priced in by the market. Therefore, there is not much room for a hawkish tone in tonight's speech by Waller. So the rhythm of the U.S. stock market going forward is simple: before the Fed rate decision and Waller's speech, risk markets will remain cautious with slight declines, showing respect and caution toward Fed policy. After Waller's speech, as long as the hawkish tone does not exceed expectations, the U.S. stock market will most likely rebound. Furthermore, with good earnings expectations from Microsoft and Google, the market may close with a rebound. Regarding Waller's speech, there is actually limited room to be more hawkish than expected. The mainstream market expectation is a pause in October and a rate hike in December. Currently, the probability of a December rate hike is 77.9%, which is already preliminarily fully priced in. This means maintaining the current rate with inflation still high and the committee prepared to tighten policy further if necessary is within expectations. Therefore, Waller has limited room to be more hawkish than expected unless, besides pushing for a December hike, he also pushes for more hikes in the future, which would be an unexpectedly hawkish stance. When Waller speaks, we can categorize the possibilities as follows: #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Pause rate hikes + emphasize data dependence = dovish Pause rate hikes + inflation still high + keep rate hike option = basically expected hawkish pause Pause rate hikes + clearly/implied December possibleThe cryptocurrency industry has spent about $176 million in the midterm elections, participating in over 100 congressional races.
As of October 20, the largest crypto industry super PAC, Fairshake, and its affiliated organizations have spent approximately $150.8 million. This money is mainly used for advertising to support crypto-friendly candidates or oppose candidates considered unfriendly by the industry.
The main backers behind Fairshake include Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z. Public disclosures show Ripple donated about $48.5 million to Fairshake and its affiliates, Coinbase donated at least $25 million to Fairshake, and a16z-related funds amounted to about $24 million.
In the House elections, Fairshake supported both Republican and Democratic candidates. However, after Democratic senators blocked the advancement of the crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, Fairshake chose to support only Republican candidates in this Senate race.
However, Coinbase also directly donated about $2 million to Republican-related organizations and about $2.2 million to Democratic-related organizations in this election cycle. These direct donations did not go through Fairshake.
Overall, the disclosed donations from crypto companies to related political action committees total about $206 million, while total donations from non-crypto industries amount to about $646 million. The cryptocurrency industry accounts for at least one-third of the total donations in this midterm election.
Of course, the crypto industry’s investment is not because Republicans are more attractive, but to gain more supporters in Congress to promote crypto regulatory legislation. Comparatively, Republicans are indeed somewhat more supportive of cryptocurrency.
Reposted from Phyrex#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Under what conditions do you take partial profits on your floating profit positions?
There are several scenarios. One is for long-term floating profit positions, where you might consider taking partial profits as the price keeps hitting new highs.
For example, previously buying $HYPE, where news or capital frenzy drove it up, and there were also KOL calls.
Due to high psychological expectations and continuous rise reaching over 70, the expectation might be that it could reach 100, so the expected price also rises accordingly. But later, because Hayes publicly sold, it was sold around 68 shortly after the call 🤔
Another type is for fast-rising floating profits, similar to the previous $RAVE, etc., where you reduce your position by 20-30% with each price increase until fully sold.
For mainstream coins like $ETH and BTC, it’s roughly similar to hype; the previous high is generally around the historical high point where you consider taking partial profits.
Additionally, if the "fundamentals" are decent, you consider taking 20-30% profits when moving from floating loss to floating profit. If the fundamentals are weak, you consider taking 50% or more profits when moving from floating loss to floating profit 📉 $SKDD Technical Analysis: Bearish Trend Continues, Watch Key Support!
$SKDD is currently hovering around $8.146, with an overall weak trend. If the price effectively breaks below $7.859, selling pressure may increase further, testing lower support zones.
🔻 $SKDD Short Trade Plan
- 🎯 Entry Range: $8.10–$8.25
- 🛑 Stop Loss: $8.65
- ✅ Target 1: $7.85
- ✅ Target 2: $7.65
- ✅ Target 3: $7.40
- ✅ Target 4: $7.00
📊 Key Observation:
If the $7.859 support is effectively broken, bears may gain further downside room; if the price strengthens again and approaches $8.65, this bearish view needs to be reassessed.
⚠️ Risk Warning: This is a high-risk trading idea, not a certainty prediction. Pay attention to volume and breakout confirmation before entry, strictly control position size, and avoid blind shorting.
Discipline first, act after confirmation. DYOR.
#SKDD #Cryptocurrency #FuturesTrading #ShortStrategy #TechnicalAnalysis #DailyOrbit$BTC is only 3 hours away from the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision. Market sentiment has clearly started to turn cautious.
During the day, Bitcoin peaked at 81,820 but failed to hold that level and has now fallen back to around 80,700. Objectively, this indicates very strong resistance near 82,000, and bullish momentum has weakened. Technically, the KDJ indicator has formed a death cross pointing downward, signaling a short-term need for a pullback and correction.
However, there is a solid long-term positive news: Thailand's Supreme Court has officially ruled Bitcoin as "property" in the legal sense. This adds fuel to the compliance of cryptocurrencies. But in the face of a major macro event like the Fed's decision, short-term positives are easily overshadowed by market sentiment.
Looking at the correlation, ETH, SOL, and ZEC are all following Bitcoin's lead, oscillating and waiting for direction.
The last 3 hours are often a period of intense shakeout, with the biggest risk being a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" dump. Avoid heavy bets on one-sided moves at this critical moment; watch more and act less. Wait for the Fed's clear signals and the market's reaction before responding!$BTC Tonight this wave dropped continuously from above 81,000. Just now, the bearish candle smashed down to around 80,000, dropping this deep was a bit unexpected. The afternoon's gains were basically all retraced. But after this sharp dip, the downward momentum did not continue to accelerate.
Looking at the bigger picture on the 4-hour chart, the recent days' support lows have been gradually rising step by step. The 1-hour candle in the afternoon broke upward with increased volume, structurally forming a BOS. Although this recent sharp drop looks fierce, it did not break below the previous starting point of the rise. The pattern of rising lows remains intact, essentially a normal correction.
Looking at the specific position, the recent lowest point just touched the previous daily low near 80,000. This area has seen multiple previous turnovers, with buy orders hanging below. On the 15-minute chart, after two large bearish candles, the volume immediately shrank. The bears did not follow up with large sell orders, and the price was supported at the low point.
My outlook is bullish. The price has held the daily structural support on the pullback, the upward trend of the bottom on the larger timeframe remains unchanged, and it is highly likely to stop here and rebound upward.
$ETH $SOL #美伊缓和与军事风险并存，油价持续回落 $ETH brothers, look at these two ETH long positions!
The combined long positions of the two major holders are close to 200 million USD, really shocking.
The positions were opened above 2500, with the liquidation zone concentrated around 2170.
This is a solid chase of longs, just watching it makes you sweat.
Now with election regulatory bearish pressure on the market, it's hard not to suspect whether the main force will push down to hit this concentrated liquidation zone.
The bulls are betting on the upside, but at this position, the risk is visible to the naked eye, better to watch the show. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $ETH $BTC Learn about one coin every day, today we are learning about the coin—DOS
Shady Coin Index: 5🌟
Growth Index: 2🌟
Trading advice: Another low-quality coin, it rose for some unknown news. Not recommended for long-term holding, no growth potential. You can wait for another rise, then short a small position when it surges sharply, be cautious of risks.
Let's briefly understand this coin: DAPPOS is an AI-based Web3 Intent-Centric AI Operating System network, aiming to lower the usage threshold of decentralized applications (dApp). $DOS SanDisk earnings report is about to be released! Brother Baibai: I still firmly believe in the future of storage chips!
Breaking news! SanDisk (SNDK) is set to announce its fiscal 2027 Q1 earnings on October 29 U.S. time. This time, I believe it’s not just an ordinary earnings report, but an important moment to test the global super boom cycle of storage chips!
Why has Brother Baibai always been optimistic about SanDisk? Because I have always believed that in the era of artificial intelligence, the value of storage chips is being redefined!
Let’s first look at last quarter’s data: SanDisk’s revenue reached $8.965 billion, a 51% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 372% year-over-year increase! Among that, data center business revenue hit $2.977 billion, a 103% quarter-over-quarter increase!
What does this mean? It shows that the storage demand driven by AI has truly been reflected in the company’s performance!
More importantly, the company previously forecasted this quarter’s revenue to reach $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, with adjusted earnings per share expected to be $44 to $46.
If this earnings report once again exceeds market expectations, then the market will have to reassess SanDisk’s future profitability.
Why am I so optimistic about the storage industry?
Because AI servers need storage, cloud computing needs storage, and data center expansion also requires storage. The stronger the computing power and the more data there is, the greater the demand for high-performance storage!
In my view, SanDisk is no longer just a traditional storage company, but a key enterprise to watch in the AI infrastructure industry chain.
$SNDK $PEPE
A wallet that had been dormant for who knows how long moved tonight. 2.27 trillion PEPE, equivalent to 10.19 million USD, dumped into the exchange all at once.
I remember the last time PEPE had such a large abnormal movement, it took at least more than a week to recover. When an old wallet on-chain moves like this, it’s basically not to give warmth; most likely it’s to sell off, or at least to test if the market can hold.
Let me share a facepalm moment. I got burned once on PEPE last year, thinking the bottom was in as volume shrank, I added positions halfway down the slope, and cut losses near the lowest point. It was ugly. So this time I’ve learned my lesson: better to earn less than to guess the bottom.
The current price is 0.000004869, up about ten percent in 24 hours. While it’s rising, a huge whale is moving coins to the exchange. Think about this combination carefully. I tend to wait and see, let it digest on its own first.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $SKHYNIX Direction: Short
· Entry: Short when the rebound is resisted around 1130 - 1135.
· Stop Loss: Firmly stop loss if it breaks above 1140 (above previous high).
· Take Profit: First target 1100, second target 1080.
⚠️ Reminder: Intraday increase exceeds 10%, stagnation appears at high levels, beware of profit-taking retracement. This is a counter-trend top fishing, do not enter early, be sure to trade very lightly and exit quickly. Binance and Coinbase can be described as polar opposites
Binance spot market is dominated by active buying, while Coinbase spot market is dominated by active selling; the investor behaviors on both sides are completely opposite.
When BTC retraced to $79,500, Binance's BTC balance suddenly decreased by 15,436 coins; at the same time, Coinbase's balance increased by 5,686 BTC.
This indicates a clear divergence of funds in different regions under the current environment. One part is actively absorbing chips, while the other part is still seeking to exit.
Could this be the legendary "East-West confrontation"?
Following this trend, the direction depends on whether Binance's buying can continue or when Coinbase's selling pressure will weaken.
If Coinbase's selling pressure gradually exhausts and Binance's buyers remain strong, then $79,500 could become an important node for a new round of supply and demand relationship changes.
The formation of a bottom can start when someone is willing to absorb selling pressure; but a trend reversal requires more capital to form consensus.
After all, relying on the buying side of only one market makes it difficult to resist the continuous pressure released by another market in the long term.
Reposted from Murphy$XAU Direction: Short
· Entry: Short when rebound is resisted near 4060 - 4065.
· Stop Loss: Firm stop loss if it breaks through 4080.
· Take Profit: First target 4040, second target 4020.
⚠️ Note: Short-term is in a fluctuating downtrend, MACD dead cross with expanding green bars, wait for rebound resistance confirmation, do not chase shorts directly, use light positions with stop loss.The Federal Reserve is very likely to hold steady; the real risk lies in December
The market's expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged tonight is already very high, with probabilities once approaching 90%.
But what truly determines subsequent pricing is not whether there is a move tonight, but the hints about the December path after the meeting.
Since rates were just raised in September, a pause in October is not surprising. However, if Powell still emphasizes inflation stickiness and remains open to further tightening during the press conference, the market will reprice for "high rates lasting longer."
For BTC, the real risk is not a single pause, but the liquidity environment being extended again.
A common pitfall is to interpret "very likely no change tonight" directly as all bad news priced in, then heavily betting on direction before the announcement.
Events that are already fully priced often see a reverse move right after the news breaks. Leveraged positions are most vulnerable during this window.
Reduce your positions first, wait for the volatility to pass, then see if capital continues to stay in AI and chips or starts to spread into crypto.
How are you preparing now?
If the post-meeting tone is hawkish, do you plan to reduce your holdings or keep them? What is your reasoning?
$BTC #FederalReserve #FOMC #Macroeconomics #OKXPlanet$TSLA Direction: Short
· Entry: Short when the rebound is resisted around 406 - 408.
· Stop Loss: Firmly stop loss if it breaks through 413 (above previous high).
· Take Profit: First target 398 (previous low), second target 392.
⚠️ Note: Heavy volume plunge at high level, MACD dead cross near zero line with expanding green bars, strong bearish momentum. Wait for rebound to confirm resistance, do not chase shorts directly, use light positions with stop loss.$BTC $ETH
Many people think that if the Federal Reserve doesn't raise interest rates, the crypto market will definitely rise, but this is the biggest misconception.
The Federal Reserve's decision in the early hours of October 29 basically confirmed a pause in rate hikes, but the key is not whether to raise rates, but whether to leave room for a rate hike in December.
Currently, inflation remains stubborn, data has not fully cooled down, and it is difficult for the Federal Reserve to completely turn dovish.
There are also major GDP and PCE data releases in the evening. The logic of this round of market movement is simple:
The early hours are just emotional fluctuations; the evening data determines the authenticity of the rise or fall.
Blindly chasing gains without looking at the data can easily lead to being trapped by short-term bull traps at high levels.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $BNB BNB's market situation is quite interesting.
The contract positions have rolled up to 420 million USD, yet the liquidation amount is only a few tens of thousands.
There is basically no high leverage fighting in the market; the shorts don't even qualify as fuel for the pump. It's entirely spot buying pushing up bit by bit from the bottom.
This kind of movement without any bubble makes it a bit difficult to wait for a big pullback to buy cheap.
#BNB
$BNB
👇550,000 $OKB just popped up on-chain and was directly deposited into the exchange, instantly increasing the inventory by 36%.
There were barely any buy orders below, and moving the tokens to the exchange at this moment clearly shows the intention.
Anyone stubborn enough to try to absorb this now is simply acting as ready-made unloading meat.
#OKB
$OKB
👇🚨 Breaking news! Brazil's largest bank officially "licensed to operate," the crypto community welcomes the formal players!
Big event! Brazil, the largest economy in South America, and its biggest private bank Itaú Unibanco have just accomplished a major milestone! 🇧🇷
They have become the first bank in Brazil to officially register for cryptocurrency trading and custody services under the new digital asset regulations! 🏦✨
What does this mean?
✅ Compliance achieved: Not a gray market or underground operation, but a legitimate entity regulated by the central bank.
✅ Rich asset support: Instantly supports 15 crypto assets including $BTC Bitcoin, $ETH Ethereum, USDC, and more.
✅ Successful early mover: Submitted notification before the October 30 deadline, ahead of all peers.
When traditional banking giants start offering large-scale crypto custody and trading services, does this mean the main force for the next bull market—"institutional funds"—is ready? 🤔
Do you think this is the final step for crypto to go mainstream? 🟢 LONG $BTW
BTW maintains a bullish 4H structure, printing higher lows and strong recovery waves. Momentum favors further upside if buyers remain in control.
📍 Entry: 1.7478–1.7583
🛑 SL: 1.6373
🎯 TP1: 1.8408
🎯 TP2: 1.9109
🏆 TP3: 2.0161The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control has once again expanded its sanctions list: 10 individuals and 1 entity, all linked to a North Korean IT worker fraud and cryptocurrency money laundering network.
The case itself is not complicated. Russian national Ilya Boykov has exchanged about $3.5 million in crypto assets for the North Korean-affiliated company Alis since 2024; Vitold Obertas has completed nearly $2 million in exchanges for North Korean officials since January 2025. The list also includes the Russian entity FFTDC, which is actually controlled by North Korea, and 6 IT workers—who have generated over $750,000 for this system since 2025. Australia and the EU have taken similar actions this month, indicating this is not a judgment by a single country.
What’s truly worth pondering is the flow of funds. Such networks rarely engage in large spot transfers of $BTC; instead, they mostly use $USDT for over-the-counter transactions, receiving coins from orders, locally converting to fiat, and then remitting back through multiple layered accounts. The reason is straightforward: stablecoins arrive quickly, amounts can be split, and they don’t go through banks, making freezing and tracing slower. Sanctions can block named intermediaries but cannot block a counterparty chain that can change personnel at any time.
For ordinary holders, the short-term impact is almost zero; liquidity for $ETH and mainstream assets will not change because of this. But one trend is clear: regulatory attention is shifting from trading platforms to individual intermediaries and OTC desks. Going forward, KYC for large OTC transactions will only become stricter. 【Crypto Circle Script】
#微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？
Microsoft really doesn't dare to rest
Google is pouring money in
Meta is pouring money in
Elon Musk is also pouring money in
Now Microsoft has to keep expanding
Are these guys afraid that if they slow down even a bit, they'll be out?
But if you think carefully
It's really not that simple
You might think everyone is competing over whose AI is stronger
In fact
They are fighting for the gateway to the next generation of the internet
Microsoft has Azure
Google has cloud services
Meta has a huge user base
Elon Musk is also accelerating computing power deployment
Each has its own advantages
But no one can guarantee
That today's advantage can be maintained tomorrow
Because AI is different from previous software
If you build an infrastructure today
Tomorrow when the model upgrades
You might need to add more computing power
If you grab a batch of customers today
Tomorrow competitors might launch better products
So the most awkward place now is this
Investing money has risks
Not investing money also has risks
Invest too little
You might fall behind competitors
Invest too much
You have to bear huge capital expenditures
If revenue growth can't keep up
Profits will be squeezed
Brothers
If the AI arms race continues for years
Do you think the company that invests the most will win
Or the company that first turns AI into stable profits will win?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Damn, this is bad, no chance to play the revival match
This time I participated in the OKX US Stock Earnings Battle Royale, and the result was a bit embarrassing. I failed to predict both SK Hynix and Robinhood, ending with 0 XP.
Reviewing it, the main issue was that GPT's analysis wasn't detailed enough.
Let's start with SK Hynix. Recently, AI computing power and storage demand have been strong, and the market has been paying close attention to high-end storage products like HBM, so I was inclined to think their earnings would exceed expectations. But after the actual release, although revenue reached 104.62 trillion KRW and operating profit reached 83.33 trillion KRW, both hitting new highs, net profit was only 39.78 trillion KRW, which dropped significantly quarter-over-quarter.
This reminded me that I can't just focus on flashy numbers like revenue and operating profit. It's essential to check in advance what metrics the market uses to measure exceeding expectations and what analysts originally forecasted. A company hitting record highs doesn't mean every metric beats market expectations.
In future earnings predictions, I need to first look at the market consensus, then break down key indicators like revenue, profit, EPS, and only finally consider the stock price reaction after the earnings release.
Congratulations to the teachers who successfully advanced, hope you win big prizes
#OKX #SKHynix #USStockEarningsSeason
#OKXExperts #TradeTradFiOnOKX