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In this 24-hour liquidation pain point statistics set, BTC, ETH, and SOL share a common contrast: the largest short pain points are closer to the price at the time of statistics, while the largest long pain points correspond to greater liquidation volumes. Distance and scale point to different things. BTC: Price at statistics 80747.1; upper short largest pain point 81558.27, distance +1%, liquidation volume 26.5443 million U; lower long largest pain point 78853.93, distance -2.34%, liquidation volume 40.7142 million U. ETH: Price at statistics 2343.4; upper 2374.86, distance +1.34%, short liquidation volume 17.4384 million U; lower 2288.65, distance -2.34%, long liquidation volume 19.0945 million U. SOL: Price at statistics 101; upper 101.89, distance +0.88%, short liquidation volume 3.3067 million U; lower 99.15, distance -1.83%, long liquidation volume 3.431 million U. 💡 My view. Being closer above means a smaller price increase is needed to hit the short pain point, but that does not equal a higher probability of price rising; a larger scale below also does not directly imply the price will move downward. By coin, BTC shows a more pronounced difference in long and short liquidation scales; ETH and SOL have more balanced amounts on both sides, with SOL having the closest upper pain point distance among the three. You cannot treat the three coins as having the same trading structure just because the upper side is closer. Regarding the spike and two-way liquidation risks mentioned in the text, I am more concerned about80,017 美元这个数字，比涨跌幅更值得盯。 你有没有发现，价格几乎没动，但市场的"紧张感"变了？ BTC 报 80,017，日内只抬了 0.16%；ETH 2,320，几乎贴着零轴；SOL 101，反而滑了 0.70%。表面像一潭静水，可衍生品这边不太一样——当价格被压得这么窄，杠杆往往在悄悄堆积，多空都觉得自己有机会，谁都不肯先撤。这种结构最脆弱的地方，不是方向，而是"谁先被挤"。 我自己的感受是，现在交易的不是涨幅，是耐心。现货没给出明确信号，合约却在替市场定价情绪：一点点上推就能触发空头回补，一点点下探又容易踩到多头止损。薄薄的区间里，波动被压缩，挤压风险反而在上升。资金费率如果持续偏正，说明多头愿意付费持仓，乐观是有的，但也意味着下行时的连锁反应会更急。 偏多的路径很清楚：只要 BTC 守住 80,000 附近、ETH 不丢 2,300，杠杆多头就有机会借一次小突破把情绪点燃，山寨跟着修复。风险则藏在另一边——SOL 已经先走弱，如果它继续拖后腿，说明风险偏好没有真正回来，BTC 的横盘可能只是"等一个触发点"，而不是"蓄势向上"。 消息面上，Strategy 暂停加仓、S$ATOM Value Tracking: The underlying logic behind ATOM being undervalued is hidden in the "burn address."
IBC has connected 115+ chains and processed over $50 billion in transactions, yet it still hovers near historical lows. The change is: the inflation cap has been reduced from 20% to 10%, and Osmosis protocol revenue will be used for open market buybacks and burning of ATOM.
In the past, stakers earned from dilution caused by issuance; in the future, they will earn from real network fees. Solana integration is in its final stage, Base and other EVM L2 connections are under audit, and the Hub is expected to become a cross-chain routing layer.
The suspense is not in the price, but in when the first deposit will appear in the burn address after the buyback mechanism is implemented. When institutions start seriously "using" Cosmos, ATOM's narrative will no longer be just about cross-chain, but the settlement layer for the RWA era. Tracking data is closer to value than chasing sentiment.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $HOOD
Robinhood's crypto revenue for Q3 was $120 million, down 55% year-over-year. This was the most striking line in its after-hours earnings report last night.
But on the same day, its total revenue was $1.424 billion, a record high, up 12% year-over-year. Revenue from the prediction market was $173 million, more than six times higher; options and stocks are all rising, only the crypto segment is shrinking. Crypto's share of total revenue was 21% a year ago, now it's only 8.4%.
The HOOD token on OKX is now 87.8, down from 93.2 in 24 hours, a drop of nearly 6%. After the retail investor retreat, even the most crypto-friendly US stock brokerage is like this, which I think says more than any candlestick chart. By the way, this $120 million is actually a bit higher than analysts' expected $114 million—the expectations had already been cut to the floor.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ETH
Seeing the phrase "ETH is fake," my first reaction was to check my holdings—nothing unusual on the market, fluctuating between 2296 and 2364 in the last 24 hours, current price 2348.
Ethereum is definitely not fake. Yesterday, OpenAI released three achievements at once, one of which disproved the "Exponential Time Hypothesis" from computational complexity theory, abbreviated as ETH. Outsiders freaked out at the headline, insiders found the abbreviation ironically amusing.
I think this mix-up quite well reflects the current market sentiment: an academic abbreviation completely unrelated to crypto can go viral like this, showing that people really have time on their hands. Funding rate is 0.0085%, almost flat, open interest at 14.98 billion USD basically unchanged—before the Fed decision, no one dares to make a move first. Despite the confusion, the calm market is the real truth right now.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK Hynix Q3 earnings report is coming, can HBM4 boost profitability? The annualized interest rate of $USDC on OKX suddenly jumped from 3% to 9%, a figure more worth pondering than Bitcoin's sideways movement around the $80,000 mark. Stablecoin lending rates don't triple without reason; it indicates that someone is using stablecoins as collateral to leverage, and the demand is urgent and intense. Interest rates are the price of capital, and a sudden price change signals behavior: the market's leverage appetite is heating up, not cooling down. Interestingly, at the same time, $BTC is stuck near 80,000, unable to go up or down. On the surface, it looks like boring consolidation, but putting the two together changes the picture: on one side, leverage demand suddenly expands; on the other, the price refuses to choose a direction. This divergence often means that incremental funds are quietly building positions rather than exiting. The crowd sees "no upward movement," but the capital side sees "someone is borrowing bullets." Market sentiment is clearly divided at this moment. One side says this is a normal pullback in a bull market; the other side eyes 75,000, expecting another drop. The disagreement itself is information—when neither bulls nor bears can present overwhelming reasons, the price gets stuck in the middle, repeatedly grinding. Real turning points usually don't happen in consensus but at moments when consensus is weakest. My judgment is cautious: the current macro environment and sentiment do not support an immediate bull market restart; $BTC is more likely to test downward in the short term rather than break upward. But this is not a prediction; trading is inherently a probability game. The cost of being wrong is missing out, and the other cost of being wrong is losing money; these two are asymmetric—missing an opportunity doesn't lose principal, waitingIn the DePIN storage sector, it is common to boast about "total network storage capacity exceeding 100PB" and "node count surpassing 10,000" to showcase prosperity. However, if all the data stored on these hard drives is junk, this is merely an inflation-driven empty operation.
Comparing these three projects:
$FIL: The former storage leader. The total network computing power is huge, but the actual external customer paid revenue is very low. Most nodes (SPs) still rely on block inflation rewards for income, and with early token unlocks, selling pressure persists. Its token value capture heavily depends on the future realization of the "AI data storage" narrative.
$AR: Focuses on "one-time payment, permanent storage." The mechanism is very innovative, but most of its protocol income goes into an endowment fund for future long-term payments, rather than being directly distributed to token holders or burned. The token's current empowerment mainly relies on expectations of ecosystem expansion.
$STX: Although also infrastructure, through the PoX mechanism, miners must pay real BTC to obtain STX block production rights, and this BTC is directly rewarded to stakers. This creates a hard link between STX's value capture and Bitcoin's underlying real income.
Summary:
The three models in the storage sector are clearly ranked: $FIL "relies on inflation subsidies and new narratives to save the day"; $AR "has income but it all goes into a long-term endowment fund"; while $STX "anchors its returns with real BTC." $ETH this one, 100x long position, floating profit 124.23%.
Let me walk you through the path it took tonight, quite funny: at 8:58 it was 2336.18, 67.48%; at 4:31, 2343.8, 100.32%; at 6:05, 2352.13, 136.21%; now 2349.35, 124.23%.
See it? It just climbed above 2350, barely settled, then slid down. Now it's off by 0.65 points, 0.03%—this gate has changed owners for the Nth time tonight.
I calculated the safety margin: 1.23%. Under 100x leverage, this thing is dangerously thin; a normal shake can wipe me out. Converted, every 1 point move in ETH makes my floating profit jump 4.31%—if it shakes 5 points around 2349, I bounce between 103% and 145%.
My biggest fear is my own impulsiveness now. Seeing "just 0.65 points away," I really want to add a position to push it through. That thought is the dumbest. What I add is not a position, but moving closer to the cliff edge.
So I won't. I take most of the money, push the breakeven up, and let the rest go. $BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ETH Review: After the 2807 warning was triggered, what to watch next?📉
Around 2807 it was noted: if 2810-2820 is not broken suddenly, the upward momentum is risky. Subsequently, ETH made multiple failed attempts to rally and turned bearish, currently down 18.76%.🔍
Structurally, 2807-2282 is first seen as a correction to the weekly uptrend from 1505-2807. If 2282 marks the full correction, ETH needs to quickly reclaim and hold 2370-2390, and must not lose the green Gann 2/1 line again; otherwise, the move since 2282 is just a rebound, which will be followed by further correction. The secondary bottom to watch is 2145-2156 (where MA200 and Fibonacci 0.5 intersect). The correction starting from 2807 may end as early as mid-November.⏳
Currently, price is consolidating near 2300. ETH/BTC is weakening, with funds favoring $BTC; staking lockups and continuous withdrawals benefit the long term, but spot ETF net outflows and weak spot support persist.⚖️
On liquidations, long positions are stacked below 2279, short positions above 2346, and high-leverage longs remain active. Wednesday's FOMC is the key variable: a hawkish tone breaking below 2300 could trigger a long squeeze; if 2280 holds, a short squeeze rebound to 2346 is possible.🎯#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 Google earnings report coming tonight: Cloud business surges, but free cash flow is the biggest weakness
Google will release its Q3 earnings report at midnight Beijing time on October 29. The market expects revenue of $127.8 billion, a 25% year-over-year increase.
The real contradiction in the fundamentals is not in revenue, but whether "burning money to drive growth" can close the loop. The cloud business is the biggest highlight, with the market expecting growth of over 90%, and JPMorgan even raising it to 100%, corresponding to revenue of about $30.3 billion. However, free cash flow turned negative for the first time in history in Q2, and the full-year capital expenditure guidance is as high as $195 billion to $205 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year.
0x50c2be4b3958c358e2654c6dabb4feb9e1cc7777
0xe797e34845f5c23b1f578c7c49a101fca4137777
If cloud growth holds at 90%, it indicates AI investments are generating returns; if it falls short of expectations or capital expenditure guidance continues to be revised upward, the "resilience narrative" of the fundamentals will be questioned. Meanwhile, the FOMC decision is also scheduled in the same window, making tonight destined to be turbulent with the dual volatility of macro and earnings.
Disclaimer: This is only a summary of public information and does not constitute investment advice.
$GOOGL CORE Coin Price Prediction: 4 Scenario Analyses Based on Market Cap Backward Calculation
Baseline Parameters: Circulating supply ≈ 1.5 billion CORE, current price ≈ $0.017, current circulating market cap about $25 million
Scenario ①: Pessimistic Scenario (Ecosystem Continues to Shrink)
Circulating market cap falls back to $10 million
Target price ≈ $0.0067
Logic: Validator nodes continue to flee, BTCFi sector heat remains low, ghost chips keep dumping, no new BTC staking capital inflow into the ecosystem, coin price continues to hit new lows.
Scenario ②: Neutral to Slightly Weak (Sector Slightly Warms Up)
Circulating market cap reaches $75 million
Target price ≈ $0.05
Logic: BTCFi sector experiences slight rotation, node loss rate slows down, ghost chips do not concentrate dumping, no major product breakthroughs needed, just relying on sector capital inflow to achieve this, making it the relatively most realistic target range.
Scenario ③: Optimistic Scenario (Ecosystem Reverses)
Circulating market cap surges to $500 million
Target price ≈ $0.33
Logic: Number of validators stops declining and rises, SatPay launches, Middle East Nawa ecosystem continuously brings BTC staking increments, on-chain fees and buyback flywheel start operating, CORE becomes one of the core assets in the BTCFi sector.
Scenario ④: Extreme Bull Market Scenario (Replicating Historical High-Level Market, Circulating Market Cap Hits $9 Billion)
Target price ≈ around $6
Logic: BTCFi enters a super bull market, massive Bitcoin assets flood into Core ecosystem staking, 69 million ghost chips are absorbed by the marketThere was an intriguing detail in Monday's market: US chip stocks were all celebrating, the Nasdaq rose nearly 1%, the VIX dropped below 19, and risk appetite clearly warmed up 😄. But BTC seemed nailed around 80,000, with a daily high-low range just over a thousand 😐.
Stocks rise but crypto doesn't follow; this kind of divergence carries more information than a simple drop — it's not macro forces dumping, but rather the crypto space itself lacking confidence. Funding rates returned to neutral, and those getting liquidated are still the longs trying to catch the rebound, meaning the market is internally de-crowding.
Outside it's sunny, but inside they're cleaning 🧹. Chasing the rebound to go long now risks getting stabbed. I'd rather stand on the sidelines and watch it clear out the floating supply.
Do you think this knife has landed? 🤔#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $ATOM Impact on ATOM: Short-term liquidity constraints, no substantial long-term negative impact
Short-term (during upgrade): Deposit and withdrawal suspensions will cause a brief liquidity disconnection. However, the post also mentions that the price difference between Upbit and OKX is less than 1%, indicating no panic discount selling in the market.
Mid-term (after upgrade completion): Once the network stability is confirmed and deposits and withdrawals resume, this technical impact will quickly dissipate. The upgrade itself does not generate new tokens and has no direct impact on total supply or the token economic model.
"Interference" to note: Upbit has a monthly balance audit on October 31, and ATOM is also on the list of 25 tokens with suspended deposits and withdrawals, with staking applications also paused. This is a routine audit all major coins undergo and is unrelated to the network upgrade. Do not misunderstand this as a separate review targeting ATOM.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Damn it! If I had known, I would have held on all along. Damn it, it might go to zero tomorrow. Shitcoin and scam pumpers, just looking at them makes me angry, no vision at all! 😡
【Thighs broken, how much less profit!】
With the October FOMC decision just around the corner, the macro expectation of "high interest rates for longer" is making BTC grind at the 80k mark, altcoin liquidity is extremely scarce, and crashes have become the norm. If I had held that short from 0.0592 last night until now at 0.025, it would have dropped nearly 60%, and with 3x leverage, that’s a full 180% profit! But me, I took profit and ran at 0.0477, although I made +58%, compared to holding now, it’s really just a sip of soup.
Really pissed me off! I clearly saw it was going south all the way, but I chickened out and didn’t hold on. This wave was purely limited by the "lock in profits" mentality. Didn’t even try a "dead cat bounce" trap, just a pure pig slaughter, this shitty coin is completely blacklisted, better if it goes to zero tomorrow, out of sight, out of mind.
The biggest lesson from this wave: for trades that are aligned with the big trend, you must take profits in batches and keep a base position! Don’t run away with all the small profits, otherwise watching the waterfall later is even more painful than losing money. The macro boot hasn’t landed yet, leverage is crowded both ways, ETH around 2300 is also facing liquidation stampedes, altcoin volatility is even more intense. Trading must avoid emotional decisions, keep light positions, strictly control leverage, and capital preservation is always the priority. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 这组24小时爆仓统计中，ETH、BTC、ZEC都是空单爆仓金额高于多单，但三者的差异，不只是清算规模大小。 ETH：总爆仓3312.82万U，占比26.66%；其中多单650.18万U，空单2662.64万U。它是这三个币种中空单清算金额最大的，反弹中的空头压力值得关注。 BTC：总爆仓1766.25万U，占比14.21%；多单746.33万U，空单1019.92万U。相比另外两者，多空清算金额更接近，不能简单概括为单边挤空。 ZEC：总爆仓635.22万U，占比5.11%；多单59.86万U，空单575.36万U。总额虽小于ETH和BTC，但清算结构更偏向空头。 💡 我的看法。 原文倾向于把这轮反弹理解为空头止损释放推动。我更关注两个维度：ETH体现的是清算体量，ZEC体现的是方向集中度，BTC则相对均衡。清算金额更大，不等于后续上涨空间更大。 空单被强制平仓可能形成回补买盘，但这不等于新增资金持续买入，也不足以证明有人刻意“洗空”。后续若价格走高、持仓量下降，仍可能主要是仓位退出；若清算减弱后成交仍活跃、回落有承接，才更有利于反弹延续的判断。 你会优先观察ETH的清算规模变化，还#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ SK Hynix Q3 Earnings Preview | Expecting this performance to surpass market consensus. Core logic: HBM4 yield rates continue to improve, shipments of high gross margin products steadily increase, major cloud providers have ample long-term contracts, and the tight supply situation for high-end memory remains unchanged. Meanwhile, traditional DRAM contract prices keep rising, ordinary storage demand on the server side is warming up, and product mix optimization continues to boost overall gross margin. The current market consensus is relatively conservative, with many funds still worried about pressure from increased HBM supply. However, based on industry production schedules and customer order feedback, demand resilience for high-end computing memory is stronger than the market imagines. The key is to wait for the next quarter guidance after the earnings release; if guidance is raised, it will further confirm the strength of the storage super cycle #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Earnings preview: I predict SK Hynix's performance this time will exceed expectations ✅
HBM remains the largest source of flexibility, with HBM4 volume ramping up, combined with the DRAM price increase dividend, creating a dual positive effect. Many market institutions still maintain a cautious forecast, underestimating the strong demand for high-end storage driven by AI giants' continuous expansion of computing power. The company is restrained in capacity deployment, prioritizing high value-added HBM, without blindly expanding production to impact supply and demand. Of course, predictions are just predictions; until the earnings report is released, everything is subject to change. Going forward, focus on two key points: HBM shipment data and management's guidance on subsequent HBM prices and orders.In the past 24 hours, short positions on DOGE have liquidated over $11 million, mainly hitting shorts, with the largest single liquidation close to $440,000. Meanwhile, a major Solana staking whale unstaked and transferred 300,000 SOL to Binance within 30 minutes, valued at approximately $26.07 million. The account holds three positions with two losses and one gain; shorts are bleeding in a short squeeze, while longs are holding on under heavy macro pressure.
$DOGE short positions show an unrealized loss of -15.92%. Contract open interest surged 33% in five days while the price barely moved. This divergence indicates leverage accumulation rather than spot buying support. Once the short squeeze starts, shorts will have no window for a smooth exit.
$SOL short positions show an unrealized loss of -15.04%. The whale transferred directly from staking contracts to exchanges, a typical pre-sale move, concentrating sell-side liquidity into the order book. The short logic is correct, but the price has not broken down accordingly, indicating longs are still resisting. The odds of continuing to hold on are not favorable.
$BTC long positions show an unrealized gain of +10.04%, the account's only safety cushion. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $263.2 million in one day, ending nine consecutive days of net inflows. Funds are clearly turning cautious ahead of the FOMC. The $80,000 level is repeatedly contested; $82,000 is the next real test, and the trump card can be held.
DOGE's crowded shorts are being liquidated, SOL's whale chips are pressing the market, and BTC's ETF inflows have stopped. Deleveraging, holding trump cards, and waiting for the FOMC to land. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ Yesterday's range was slightly off: given 28,874 to 29,269, the close was 29,273, 4 points above the upper boundary. The Nasdaq 100 is currently reported at 29,390 today, 319 points higher than the previous period, and -5.87% from the recent high of 31,224.
But the probability hasn't changed at all: a 28% chance of touching the high within 20 days, with a baseline of 55%. This rebound has narrowed the price gap but hasn't rewritten the pullback scenario.
Today's expected range is 29,202 to 29,579. Tomorrow is the FOMC plus $MSFT, $GOOGL earnings, and Thursday $AMZN, so volatility may exceed the range. Before these events land, the back-and-forth within the range shouldn't be taken as a signal; to reassess, we need to see if the probabilities themselves change after these schedules.$SOXS 483% back then I didn't take profits, now 448%—this 35 percentage points is the cost of me "waiting for it to break another level."
Opened a short position at 52.92, 25x leverage, now at 43.42.
The most tormenting is the 43 level. It went in, then came back out. Around 3 a.m. at 42.69, I thought it had passed; now at 43.42, it has stood outside the door for more than twenty minutes without moving further in.
What I fear most is precisely the "numbness brought by a thick cushion." A 21.88% cushion tonight is second only to APR. The thicker the cushion, the easier it is to relax—but a thick cushion doesn't mean it won't go to zero, just that it will go to zero more slowly. I've seen too many trades not die at the start but after making a lot of profit.
There is also a mental knot: back when it was 483%, I was watching and considering whether to take profits but didn't act. Now at 448%, is the missing 35 percentage points the cost of my "inaction"? This kind of dilemma has no answer. The only thing certain is: if 43 is lost, the breakout is temporarily invalid.
The three things I fear most: first, thinking "the cushion is thick anyway, let it be." Second, itchy hands adding to the position chasing 600%. Third, dawn comes after staying up all night, utterly exhausted.
So don't fight it anymore. Realize most profits, move the break-even up. If it breaks below 42, look at 40; if it stands back at 45, reduce positions. $BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 “Zero out” or “Hundredfold”? An in-depth review of the CORE token economic model: investment game under an 81-year release cycle.
One of CORE's biggest selling points is its token model designed to benchmark Bitcoin: a hard cap of 210 million tokens, with 40% of the consensus reward portion planned to be slowly released over 81 years. The annual block reward decays at a rate of 3.61%. The official goal is to use this ultra-long release cycle to continuously incentivize validator nodes and BTC stakers, creating a long-term scarcity narrative.
However, this carefully designed economic model is facing significant real-world challenges.
Theoretically, the 81-year long release cycle can avoid massive short-term sell pressure, but the exposure of 69 million ghost tokens has broken the originally preset release rhythm; combined with the continuous withdrawal of official nodes and validator exodus, the flywheel that maintained network security through block rewards is showing cracks. If nodes continue to decline, the model relying on token subsidies to maintain security will become unsustainable, and the 81-year release cycle will instead become a long-term continuous supply pressure.
To realize a hundredfold market surge, not only does the BTCFi sector need to explode, but nodes must stabilize, SatPay must be implemented, and on-chain fee income must gradually replace block rewards; if the ecosystem continues to shrink, the prolonged token release will only keep diluting value, heading towards a zero-out risk.
The 81-year release is a long-term mechanism under ideal conditions, not a capital protection guarantee. A hundredfold gain is a low-probability windfall, while zeroing out is a potential outcome that cannot be ignored, making it unsuitable for heavy investment.Zijin has turned positive simultaneously; is this wave a correction or a short-term rebound?
Just checked the ETF data and found a phenomenon worth discussing:
A few days ago, there was a collective retreat, but today there was a sudden turnaround. BTC net inflow is 40.8 million, ETH net inflow is 29.4 million, and SOL also slightly turned positive. The three major coins moving in sync indeed brought some warmth to the market.
Specifically:
$BTC previously referenced at 84500, 7-day net inflow of 513 million, the battle in the 85000-86000 range will be very critical;
$ETH reference price 2507, although there was a single-day inflow, there is still a 680 million outflow over 30 days, whether 2500 can hold is very important;
$SOL reference price 108.4, 30-day outflow of 57.9 million, chasing highs near 110 requires caution.
But don’t rush to conclusions, the real test is coming soon. Now everyone is wondering, is this inflow an institutional pre-positioning or just a short-term sentiment repair?
Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
For market record only, not investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ CORE Coin Prediction: 0.05 or 6.14? Unveiling the Mask of BTC Layer2 to See Its True Value
Many people habitually refer to CORE as BTC Layer2, but strictly speaking, it is a Bitcoin sidechain/L1 public chain based on the Satoshi Plus consensus, not an Ethereum-style Rollup Layer 2. This is the "mask" in much of the promotion about the first layer.
Current: Price ≈ $0.017, circulating supply about 1.5 billion coins, circulating market cap approximately $25 million, total supply capped at 2.1 billion coins.
Scenario One: $0.05 (neutral to optimistic, ≈3x increase)
If the price reaches $0.05 with unchanged circulating supply, the circulating market cap will be $75 million. To achieve this goal, no epic explosion is needed, just the following conditions:
1. Rotation in the BTCFi sector, with funds flowing back into BTC staking tracks;
2. Phantom chips do not massively dump during the price rise;
3. The number of validators no longer rapidly declines, and the network does not further deteriorate;
This level is reachable with a sector recovery and is the most realistic target range.
✅Scenario Two: Hitting the All-Time High of $6.14 (extreme bull market, ≈360x increase)
Returning to the all-time high of $6.14, the circulating market cap would directly exceed $9 billion, which is the market's wildest imagination.
To realize this price, all checkpoints must be cleared simultaneously: In just two days, BTC spot ETF has shifted from net inflows to net outflows, totaling 773.5 million outflows, with almost all funds that came in last week withdrawn. This is not retail investors emotionally dumping, but institutional buying retreating.
During the same period, long-term holding addresses reduced their BTC holdings by over 50,000 coins, and institutions have also paused buying. Interestingly, BTC and gold are weakening simultaneously; currently, everyone prefers holding cash, CORE、HYPE、XRP的24H涨幅分别为+1.92%、+5.18%、+2.59%，但这组统计里的持仓情绪并不一致：CORE、XRP整体空单略多，HYPE则是多单略占优势。 CORE：多单48.30%，空单51.70%，多空比0.9342。4H涨幅+3.98%，7D为+1.3%；但30天仍为-25.98%，年初至今-83.78%。短线回升与较长周期下跌并存，反弹还不能直接当成趋势修复。 HYPE：多单50.75%，空单49.25%，多空比1.0305。4H为+1.33%，7D为+3.19%，年初至今+214.33%。原帖判断其大户多头情绪也更强，与整体统计方向相对一致。 XRP：多单48.33%，空单51.67%，多空比0.9354。4H为+0.48%，7D为+1.99%。原帖提到，其大户多头仓位较集中；CORE的大户账户和持仓数据也偏多，与整体空单略占优形成反差。 💡 我的看法。 真正值得区分的是“方向一致”和“统计分层”。HYPE的不同维度相对同向，CORE、XRP则存在分歧，但账户数量与仓位规模不是一回事，不能仅凭这些比例就认定散户与大户全面对赌。 原帖担忧分歧可能增加插针洗Why do I say the "darkest hour" of the CORE coin has passed? The market cap logic and ecosystem reversal signals behind the $0.017 price
Many market opinions believe that CORE's most severe phase is over. We review the reversal logic cited by bulls while objectively considering unresolved risks. Bullish perspective: Reasons why the darkest hour has passed 1. Negative factors concentrated and fully erupted at once: The August reward loophole and September hard fork issues have been resolved; most excess tokens have been destroyed on-chain. The market has fully priced in the panic caused by the loophole crisis. The worst inflation disaster has been stopped by the hard fork, preventing a continuous flood of abnormal new tokens. 2. Market cap has been compressed to a minimum: The coin price has dropped from a historical high of $6.14 to around $0.017, a decline of over 99%. Market sensitivity to negative news has greatly decreased, and the momentum for unlimited further decline has been largely exhausted. 3. The long-term narrative of the BTCFi sector remains: A massive amount of idle Bitcoin assets await yield release. Core's unique Satoshi Plus self-custody BTC staking sector positioning remains intact; the Middle East ecosystem project Nawa Finance's Sharia-compliant BTC yield product has launched, opening potential capital inflows from the Gulf region, representing realized ecosystem growth. However, the ecosystem reversal is not yet confirmed, and the crisis is not completely over: 1. 69 million ghost chips still hang overhead, and a market rebound could release selling pressure at any time; 2. The official validator node withdrawal trend has not reversed, and network decentralization remains a concern.Evaluation of Core Overseas community evaluation of Core (Core DAO) ✅ Bullish side (supporters) 1. BTC native consensus narrative Core proposes DPoW (Delegated Proof of Work), introducing Bitcoin's hash power into its own public chain. Supporters believe it is one of the few public chains bound to BTC hash power, allowing it to leverage Bitcoin's security endorsement, belonging to the BTCFi track project. 2. Ecological imagination space The community is optimistic about its BTCFi, SatPay, and other product plans, believing it can bring BTC assets into the Core ecosystem for lending and payments, building a BTC application layer. 3. Miner group attention Many BTC miners pay attention to this project because they can gain additional CORE token rewards without significantly increasing extra mining costs. ⚠️ Bearish/cautious side (skeptics) 1. DPoW mechanism is the most controversial Many in the native Bitcoin community criticize that DPoW is not true Bitcoin security; it only borrows miner signatures and has security model vulnerabilities; they consider it a "parasitic BTC hash power narrative" and not an officially recognized Bitcoin extension. 2. Contract and asset risks DeFi researchers warn that various staking and lending contracts on Core (such as Colend) have smart contract vulnerability risks, and once problems occur, assets are difficult to recover; historically, ecosystem projects have experienced product delays and underperformance. 3. Token economics controversy Some analysts believe the token release volume is large, longCORE has dropped 99%, is buying now "picking up cigarette butts" or "catching flying knives"? 3 key data points tell you the answer
The coin price has plummeted over 99% from its historical high. Many people directly apply Graham's cigarette butt investment logic, believing CORE is extremely undervalued and a great bottom-fishing opportunity. But the core premise of cigarette butt stocks is: the main business capability still exists, and there is no ongoing destructive risk. We use 3 core data points to judge whether it is picking up cigarette butts or catching flying knives. Data ①: The number of independent validators continues to decline
Currently, there are only about 20 active validators left, official nodes are continuously withdrawing, and the network's decentralization is weakening. The core selling point of the BTCFi track is relying on Bitcoin's computing power for security endorsement. If validators continue to be lost, large Bitcoin holders will not dare to stake BTC on a large scale into the ecosystem, and the narrative foundation of the track will continue to be damaged. Data ②: 69 million ghost chips still exist
The hard fork only destroyed tokens stuck in vulnerable addresses; the 69 million abnormal chips transferred out before the fork cannot be recovered. As long as the market recovers, this part of the chips may be sold at any time, always lurking as sudden selling pressure on the way up. This is a rare time bomb for cigarette butt stocks. Data ③: Core product and revenue realization progress is below expectations
SatPay keeps being delayed, on-chain native revenue and buyback flywheel have yet to be realized, and although the Middle East Nawa Finance ecosystem product has launched, it has not brought massive new BTC staking funds. The ecosystem growth is below market expectations. Everyone is waiting for early Thursday morning, but the market moved first today
Everyone is waiting for the Federal Reserve early Thursday morning, as if the direction must be revealed at that moment. But the market did not follow the script.
This afternoon, BTC quietly slipped below 80,000, currently at 79,674; ETH is close to 2,305; SOL directly lost 100, now at 99.7. After three days of sideways balance, it did not break upward, but instead leaked downward.
Looking back, it’s simple: by the third day of sideways movement, those wanting to bottom-fish are already fully invested, those wanting to short have lost their nerve, and the rest think, "It’s been sideways like this, how much lower can it go?" So they heavily bet on one side waiting for the data. They are waiting for this kind of moment.
Just after breaking 80,000, BTC has long positions still held at 79,200 and 78,800 below; further down, 77,200 and 76,600 are even thicker accumulations; ETH focuses on 2,282 and 2,242; SOL has 9.69 million near 98. Early Thursday morning is indeed the main event, but no one said the market must wait until then to move. Those who put all their bullets on "data landing" might not even get the first shot.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ The whale's high-leverage full-position short combination layout in the cryptocurrency derivatives market consists of three position cards corresponding to the three mainstream coins BTC, ETH, and SOL. Overall, it presents a risk-reward pattern of "partial coin floating profit, core coin slight floating loss," reflecting the highly representative game logic of cryptocurrency contract trading.
The configuration idea for each short position group is very clear, a typical "heavy on the main, supplemented by the rising" short layout.
Using $ETH as the core profit position, the 26,800 holdings correspond to a nominal value of $63,235,700, with an unrealized floating profit of $2,567,500 currently realized, serving as the income pillar of the entire portfolio;
$BTC acts as a hedging short position, with a larger holding scale of 224.88, but currently a slight floating loss of $123,100, playing the role of anchoring the benchmark risk of the overall market;
$SOL serves as a high-elasticity supplementary position, leveraging its large market volatility to supplement income elasticity, currently also maintaining a slight floating profit.
At the same time, all three orders use full-position mode, with leverage decreasing stepwise from 20X to 30X, balancing aggressiveness and basic risk control awareness.
The most noteworthy detail of this position is that all three coins have obtained positive funding fee income: ETH's funding fee income reaches as high as $2,407,000, even exceeding its own price fluctuation floating profit; BTC also received $252,700 in funding fees, and SOL has more than $6,000 in funding fee income. This indicates that the market was in an extremely crowded long position state at the time, with long positions needing to pay high interest to shorts. This trader not only bet correctly on the price direction but also earned "passive win" income brought by market sentiment, effectively receiving holding interest from the market while shorting.
The risk points of this strategy are also very prominent: BTC's liquidation price reaches $189,722, far exceeding the current mainstream market BTC price range. Once the market experiences an extreme surge, this high-leverage full-position order faces the risk of instant liquidation; meanwhile, the full-position mode means the margin of the three coins is fully connected, and an extreme fluctuation in a single coin may affect the entire portfolio's margin. Although the three short positions seem diversified, they essentially all bet on the same premise that "the cryptocurrency market will not experience a violent surge," without truly achieving risk hedging.
In the cryptocurrency contract market, such a position is a typical example of "high returns and high risks coexisting." It demonstrates the professional trader's skill in leveraging rules to amplify returns but also exposes the ever-present liquidation shadow in high-leverage trading.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ Today, we first look at capital inflows, but it's still too early to hastily judge a reversal. BTC spot and futures are synchronously flowing in short-term, ETH leverage funds are replenishing more noticeably, while SOL is supported by spot but futures are still retreating.
BTC spot net inflow in 4 hours is $111 million, futures net inflow is $36.18 million. Extending to 24 hours, spot net inflow is $179 million, but futures net outflow is $92.74 million. The 30-day futures net outflow has 200,000 principal turns into 12 million? CORE coin's all-time high was $6.14, now it's $0.017. Is this a bottom rebound or a zero trap?
Simple calculation: from the current price of $0.017 back to the all-time high of $6.14 is about a 360x increase. If fully invested with 200,000 principal, theoretically it could become 72 million, while 12 million only requires a 60x increase, a huge potential that attracts countless retail investors to buy the dip. But low price does not equal bottom; this asset carries both super high odds and zero risk. The underlying story of the BTCFi sector hasn't disappeared; the trillion-scale idle Bitcoin assets represent the biggest imagination space for the sector. CORE focuses on Bitcoin staking yield; once BTCFi enters a bull market, small-cap public chains have huge valuation elasticity. After continuous sharp declines, the coin price is at a historic low. Many investors believe the negative factors have been fully released, but to realize a big surge, several critical hurdles must be overcome: 1. The number of validator nodes remains low, with few independent validators, so network decentralization and security risks remain unresolved, and large BTC holders dare not stake Bitcoin at scale; 2. 69 million ghost tokens hang overhead—abnormal tokens left from hard forks, which could dump anytime when the market warms, severely suppressing price rises; 3. Core plans like SatPay and buybacks have yet to be implemented, the on-chain native revenue flywheel has not started, making it hard to convert narrative into real value; 4. Competitors like Babylon and Stacks in BTCFi continue to seize market share, intensifying sector competition.本次披露的三笔全仓空单中，ETH未实现盈利256.75万U，SOL小幅浮盈，BTC则浮亏12.31万U。同样做空，收益结构却不一样。 BTC｜30X全仓 持仓-224.88 BTC，价值1826.76万U；开仓价80686.7U，未实现盈亏-12.31万U，资金费收入+25.27万U；保证金60.89万U，所列爆仓价189722.02。 ETH｜25X全仓 持仓-2.68万 ETH，价值6323.57万U；开仓价2456.02U，未实现盈亏+256.75万U，资金费收入+240.7万U；保证金252.94万U，所列爆仓价3264.07。 SOL｜20X全仓 持仓-3.43万 SOL，价值349.07万U；开仓价104.252U，未实现盈亏+8.62万U，资金费收入+6258.24U；保证金17.45万U，所列爆仓价804.12。 💡 我的看法。 这组仓位的重点不只是ETH浮盈最多，而是它的名义仓位也最大：盈利贡献更集中，反向波动时的盈亏变化也更值得关注，不能只按盈利金额判断交易优劣。 BTC的资金费收入高于其浮亏，但两者不能混称平仓利润，更不等于账户净收益。三笔资金费均为正，也不代表From $0.017 to $1? In-depth analysis: Is the next 60x myth of CORE coin brewing!
Rising from the current price of about $0.017 to $1, a nearly 60-fold increase, this huge potential return is the core motivation for many retail investors to persistently hold CORE. We objectively break down what conditions need to be met for this 60x rally to materialize, as well as the major obstacles along the way. If the coin price rises from $0.017 to $1, assuming the circulating supply remains unchanged, the market capitalization would need to expand by about 60 times. Once the BTCFi sector enters a super bull market, a massive amount of idle Bitcoin assets will seek on-chain yield. As a BTCFi L1 public chain featuring the Satoshi Plus consensus, CORE naturally has huge valuation elasticity and theoretically has this potential. However, for the 60x myth to come true, there are several very difficult hurdles to overcome: 1. Node crisis must be stopped: The continuous withdrawal trend of independent validators must reverse, and the network’s decentralization and security must be restored, otherwise large BTC holders will not dare to stake Bitcoin at scale; 2. Ghost chip selling pressure: The 69 million abnormal ghost chips left over after the hard fork could dump at any time during the price rally, severely suppressing upside; 3. Product implementation and delivery: SatPay needs to be launched and operational, with on-chain fees and buyback flywheel truly running, not just staying at the narrative stage; 4. Intense sector competition: Competitors in the BTC staking sector like Babylon and Stacks are constantly vying for market share.📌Pre-market quick notes: A sober reflection before Samsung's earnings report
Samsung will release its full Q3 earnings report on October 29, with preliminary operating profit soaring nearly 8 times year-over-year. AI storage demand is heating up, with HBM4 shipments and memory chip prices being the core factors. The stock rose 2.02% pre-market today, clearly betting on earnings beating expectations 😮.
But no matter how high the profits, beware of the "good news fully priced in" ⚠️. Two key points in the comments: First, Samsung's stock price fell despite record profits, foreign investors are reducing holdings and buybacks are ending, retail investors are moving to US stocks, leaving no net buyers in the Korean market, worsening the buying structure; second, SK Hynix's HBM4 backend equipment orders have been postponed to next year, expansion is slower than expected, the short-term shortage logic remains intact, but once long-term capacity comes online, prices will need to be re-evaluated.
Your previous long position in SK Hynix at 1250 was also a bet on this expectation. When earnings are realized, it is often the time for short-term funds to take profits. Scale down profits in batches above, keep your defense levels tight, and set stop-loss orders properly ⛑️. The above is time-sensitive, intraday variables change fast, don't go naked 😉.Wow, this week is really a bomb week.
Tomorrow night is the FOMC, Thursday's PCE inflation data is forecasted at 3.7%, and on Friday there is also $11 billion worth of BTC options expiring.
The key point is this option—$10.97 billion worth of BTC options on Deribit expire this Friday, accounting for 35% of all open interest. This is the largest expiration event of the year.
What does this mean? Before the options expire, the whales will try to push the price to the strike price most favorable to themselves. It's currently 81,000, and the max pain point is around 80,000. In other words, before expiration, the whales will most likely grind the price back and forth around 80,000.
I think if the FOMC turns hawkish tomorrow night, BTC might first drop then rally. Let's see what old Wash has to say. This kind of market really tests your mindset.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC
The Federal Reserve decision is just a few hours away, BTC is hovering around 80,800 now, with a 24-hour high of 81,298 and a low of 79,505, having reclaimed the 80,000 level again.
Wintermute also said during the day that after three consecutive weeks of decline, the 80,000 line is the lifeline. The previous surge to 87,000 was immediately pushed back, with heavy selling pressure above. Funding rates have returned to a normal level of 0.01%, open interest is around 31,000 contracts, and those betting on the decision haven't been forced to liquidate.
Willy Woo said the top in 2028 could be between 240,000 and 410,000. I believe half of that; whether it tops or not is another matter, but the fact that this veteran bull is still willing to speak out at least shows that big money hasn't fled.
My stance is simple: no adding positions before the decision is finalized; wait to see which side gets buried first, then pick a side. Those who try to jump the gun at times like this are basically providing liquidity for others.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 35 billion USD is not just a financing round; it’s a steel beam forcibly inserted into a load-bearing wall—the building isn’t topped out yet, but cracks are already climbing up from the cash flow foundation.
From the general contractor’s perspective on Meta’s securities financing this time, the 22.5 billion USD common stock financing is like increasing the column spacing, and the 12.5 billion USD mandatory convertible preferred stock acts as temporary support; the convertible terms mean that the temporary support will eventually become a permanent load, compressing the floor space of existing shareholders. With a potential additional 60 billion USD, pushing the total to 95 billion USD, this is not simply adding floors but raising the building height before the foundation settlement is fully understood. Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom together may subscribe up to 5 billion USD, more like bringing material suppliers into the project company: rebar and electromechanical are tied to the same balance sheet, which will speed up construction but also makes structural coupling more dangerous.
The funds are directed toward AI infrastructure, which sounds like building new data centers, power, cooling, and compute centers, but in essence, it’s a large-scale load redistribution. Free cash flow turned negative in Q3, and the annual capital expenditure guidance is 135 to 145 billion USD, indicating negative pressure on the cash flow foundation; at this point, relying on common stock and mandatory convertible preferred stock to continue is like using a post-pour belt to patch the main building’s settlement. The real acceptance criteria are not the press release renderings but whether these compute centers can generate sustained profits to cover capital and dilution costs. The tokenized asset $xSNDK is the glass curtain wall of this building, first reflecting the deformation of capital expenditures; when the main structure settles, the curtain wall reacts first, and market linkage also transmits from here.
I don’t look at renderings, only at reinforcement diagrams and cash flow profiles. The financing scale is not the biggest crack; the biggest crack is capital expenditure poured into data centers with excessively long return cycles, while free cash flow can no longer support its own structural weight. When capital expenditure growth outpaces free cash flow, the whole building shifts from a core frame to a cantilever system; a delayed return by one quarter means stress will transfer to the outermost $xSNDK curtain wall. #meta35baifinancingThe isobars over the Strait of Hormuz are being redrawn by an invisible hand, and what I focus on is no longer the channel about to open, but the cold vortex above it that has yet to dissipate.
On October 26, observers from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan simultaneously entered the Tehran station, and Qatar submitted a forecast valid for five days: Iran reopens the strait, and the US lifts the port blockade. It looks like a textbook frontal passage: warm moist air retreats, visibility improves, and shipping resumes. But in my years of forecasting, what I fear most is this kind of "looks like clearing up" map: the dispute over the sequence of navigation and unblocking remains unresolved, meaning the order of frontal movement is still uncertain; whether rain or wind comes first, differing by one time step, results in two sets of weather. Tehran excludes the nuclear issue from negotiations, effectively letting the deep cold vortex press over the boundary layer; no matter how much the surface warms, once lifting conditions are triggered, convection will still erupt.
Brent crude fell back to 114.81, WTI to 101.02. This is a drop from a red high-temperature warning to orange, not a cooling. The supply risk premium—the warm moist air—is only temporarily suppressed by a shortwave trough and the moisture transport is not cut off. The Houthi militia claims to have attacked Saudi pipelines, which is a local strong convective cell that large-scale models cannot capture; radar echoes appear clearly once they form, with random impact areas, but each time they disrupt the newly restored visibility again.
The US stock tokenized asset $xTSM shows typical air-sea coupling characteristics: sea surface temperature (oil price) slightly drops, the upper atmosphere (risk appetite) immediately responds, but the response magnitude is always greater than the sea temperature change itself, which is a common problem of turbulence exchange flux amplification. Every time the Strait navigation expectation improves, the $xTSM isobaric surface rises a level; but as long as ship passage through Hormuz cannot be stably observed for three consecutive time steps, this rise is just a false warming in the model: surging during the day, nighttime radiative cooling will still pull the temperature back to the dew point.
Currently, I only give one judgment—
The five-day window is a member divergence of an ensemble forecast, cannot be treated as a forecast, and the divergence is still expanding. #USIranHormuzTalks The $ETH 4-hour chart is telling a rather pessimistic story: each rebound is weaker than the last, and the highs continue to decline. In this structure, 2281 becomes the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears—once it is lost and cannot be quickly reclaimed, the downside space will open up, with the next observation zone around 2200, focusing on whether there is buying support there. Frankly, it is currently difficult to be optimistic about $ETH. But what is truly underestimated is not this downtrend line, but the macro density of this week. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan are all releasing policy signals in the same week; US GDP and core PCE data are appearing consecutively; Microsoft, Google, and Amazon earnings reports are clustered. This is not an ordinary week, but a window where the stock market, the dollar, and US Treasury yields simultaneously price the crypto market. The transmission chain of capital flows is more worth watching than the charts: if earnings are strong, risk appetite may first revive the stock market and then spill over to $BTC and $ETH; if data is hawkish, the dollar and yields rising will first drain liquidity, and the crypto space often suffers passively. Most people only focus on the number 2281, but they overlook that it will most likely be redefined by macro news this week. Technical levels are effective during calm periods but are easily gap-breached during event-heavy periods, so the real signal is not the price touching 2281, but the quality of the price reaction above 2281 after data releases—if it recovers quickly, it means buying is still there; repeated attempts without reclaiming it confirm the trend continuation. My judgment is: the current bearish structure of $ETH has not yet been falsified, but the decision on direction this week is not in the hands of the chart, but in theThe proportion of tokens in profit across the entire network remains close to 70%. Meanwhile, exchanges' Bitcoin reserves continue their long-term decline, staying at multi-year lows. October saw neither concentrated panic holding of coins nor large-scale whale withdrawals for hoarding; the available spot chips for immediate trading are continuously shrinking. This means that once new buying emerges, the resistance to price increases is actually thinner than the support for downward breaks. The short-term battleground is tugging between 75,000 and 82,000, but the foundation of the bull market remains intact. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC Robinhood's Q3 report is out, adjusted EPS is 0.60, GAAP EPS is only 0.51
Robinhood's Q3 GAAP diluted EPS is $0.51, Wall Street estimated 0.555, so it missed. The company introduced a new adjusted EPS this quarter, which is 0.60. Revenue was $1.42 billion, up 12% year-over-year, slightly below the expected $1.44 billion.
The shortfall was explained in the press release. There was an unrealized loss of $67 million in net profit, or $0.07 per share, mainly due to RVI being accounted for at stock price. This loss basically did not offset taxes, pushing this quarter's tax rate to about 23.8%. Excluding it, the rough tax rate is 20.6%, whereas the previous two quarters were below 20%.
October started off well. As of October 27, net deposits have exceeded $13 billion, of which $6 billion came from the Dell family to Trump Accounts. The full-year guidance upper limit for adjusted expenses plus stock-based compensation was lowered by another $25 million.
After hours, the stock price dropped from the close of 94.56 to about 87 around 6 PM Eastern Time, a drop of about 8%. OKEx perpetual contracts fell from 94.79 at 4 PM Eastern Time to 87.32 at 6:14 AM Beijing Time, down 7.9%.
No was right again.
Alright, the above is my personal opinion and not investment advice Oil prices fell due to expectations of talks on the Strait of Hormuz, Brent closed at $113.88, and WTI dropped below the 100 mark‼️‼️
Although oil prices fell, the market situation is not very good: $BTC account long-short ratio reached 2.39 and continues to rise, retail long positions are extremely crowded, while large accounts are reducing positions simultaneously, spot CVD is negative, and contract-side selling pressure is active
The risk appetite recovery brought by the "oil price decline" has not been confirmed by spot buying on the market, and it has mostly been taken over by retail leveraged longs
The number of attacked vessels around Hormuz hit a new high this year, geopolitical risk premium has only partially retreated and has not disappeared
The oil price news gave a breather, but with crowded retail longs and spot not following, the rebound is ultimately quite limited
There are many trapped positions above, combined with high leverage selling pressure below, the market moves slowly and is complicated
If oil prices continue to fall, long leverage is not crowded, and combined with inflows into $BTC spot ETFs, a good rebound to fill the upper gap could happen
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 🚨 美国与加拿大收紧稳定币收益规则：支付归支付，储蓄归储蓄！比特币的价值定位会因此改变吗？ 💵 稳定币市场正在迎来一场重要的监管变化。这场博弈的核心，不再只是如何使用稳定币，而是一个更敏感的问题：用户仅仅持有数字美元，是否就应该获得利息或收益？ 🇺🇸 在美国，美国货币监理署（OCC）的最终规则计划于2027年1月18日生效。根据相关规定，稳定币发行方不得仅仅因为用户持有稳定币，就直接向其支付利息或收益。 ⚖️ 但真正值得关注的细节隐藏在规则的调整之中。最终版本删除了此前草案中关于第三方奖励可能违规的推定条款，改为根据具体情况逐案审查。这意味着，交易所或其他第三方仍可能在符合相关规定的前提下提供某些奖励，但并不代表所有奖励计划都能获得许可。 🇨🇦 加拿大也在推进类似的监管方向。目前，加拿大已启动为期60天的公众咨询，拟限制非金融类发行机构向稳定币持有者支付收益，相关规定预计于2027年秋季生效。 🔥 为什么美国和加拿大都在强调稳定币不能简单变成一种生息存款？ 🏦 核心原因在于传统银行体系的稳定性。如果用户能够轻松持有与美元挂钩的数字资产，同时获得具有吸引力的收益，那么部分First, a quick reversal: last night I thought it would go down further, but today's rebound must be acknowledged. The short positions I held from yesterday were cut off above 80,000, and now I'm basically out of positions, not in a hurry to get back in. Bitcoin is currently around 80,900, up a bit over 1% in a day, and the 80,000 level has been reclaimed; Ethereum is at 2,350, up 1.7%, even stronger than Bitcoin. My current view is that the short-term downtrend is over, but I really don't recommend chasing longs. The variable here is this: yesterday's drop was too fast, and today feels more like a recovery from panic. To confirm a trend reversal, we still need to see if 80,000 can hold for two days. Leave some room in your positions; don't go all in right at the open. What do you think—can the 80,000 level hold for a few days, or will it be smashed down again in a couple of days?Copy trading leads to loneliness! The top KOL on the leaderboard earned about $1.14 million in a month, but someone who copied his trades bought 925 coins and ended up with only $2,524 😂
I just saw a pretty painful experiment. Someone copied all the coins bought by the top 50 on an on-chain KOL leaderboard from September 26 to October 26, a 30-day period. They copied every buy and sell, investing only $10 per coin, with 2% fees on both buy and sell plus 3% slippage.
In 30 days, they followed 55,578 trades in total, making about $16,139, which looks pretty good at first glance. But breaking it down is a bit painful: out of 50 people, 23 caused losses, only 31% of the coins followed were profitable, and about 43% of the profits came from just 10 coins.
The most ridiculous part is the top few. The number one earned about $1.14 million themselves, but the copier only had $2,524 left. Number 4 earned about $285,000 in 30 days, but the copier bought 4,766 coins and actually lost $1,160. The bottom-ranked person earned over $40,000, but the copier lost $3,127. The wallet had to hold about $15,700 at the same time to manage so many trades.
The KOL shows their own account, but when you press buy, the entry price, speed, and slippage are all different. On the same candlestick, some make profits, but most who follow only get a taste, and sometimes even that taste is cold.
For beginners, it’s recommended to watch more and trade less. When buying coins, only buy $BTC Watching the market until now, I suddenly feel this market is very ironic. What crushed the sentiment today was not macro data, nor the Federal Reserve, but "our own people" pulling out first.
Arthur Hayes only said on X, "I sold everything," then dumped 6,400 ETH, about $15.2 million. His meaning is very straightforward: first the drop, then the rise. More strikingly, the Ethereum Foundation's related wallet sold 2,785 ETH on CoW Swap at an average price of $2,304, cashing out $6.42 million and converting it into stablecoins. The project side is taking profits at this point, while retail investors are still waiting for the bull to return.
The ETF didn't give any face either. On October 27, the US spot Ethereum ETF had a single-day net outflow of $88.58 million, with BlackRock's ETHA alone seeing an outflow of $104.71 million, setting a record for the largest single-day outflow. Throughout October, ETH ETFs had a cumulative outflow of over $1 billion, more than three times the outflow scale of Bitcoin ETFs. This is not an ordinary correction; it's money voting.
My short position average price is 2,583, current price 2,307, floating profit 1069%, liquidation price 2,779, with over four hundred dollars buffer in between. The position is not large, following the capital flow, not the illusion of "it will rebound after falling too much." Below, there is $978 million worth of long liquidation orders hanging at $2,209, like a hanging knife.
I don't guess the bottom, I only watch where the money goes. The Foundation and Hayes are both selling; how many more days can 2,300 hold?
$BTC $ETH #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ $SOFI held onto its pre-market gains and continued to surge during the session, up 13%.
The management rarely provided a full-year guidance for fiscal 2027, with EPS at $0.90, representing over 50% year-over-year growth compared to fiscal 2026, which itself is expected to see a 50% EPS increase.
This is a company with at least 50% EPS growth for two consecutive years, and given Anthony Noto's style, this $0.90 guidance is very likely quite conservative, meaning Sofi's growth in 2027 could be even faster.
However, the market still values Sofi at less than 20 times forward PE, so the stock remains undervalued. A short-term target of $20 is set, and I am optimistic that Sofi can return to its historical high of $30 by 2027.
Of course, risks remain; no matter how strong the management's execution is, they cannot control macroeconomic headwinds. Tomorrow's Federal Reserve speech will be the most important short-term event affecting Sofi's stock price. A rate hike is unlikely, but the tone on December will be very critical.
I will update Sofi's latest target price later this week.$BTC has risen 109%, climbing from 44% over more than seven hours — but when I glance at the safety cushion, it's only 1.08%, and that little bit of excitement immediately fades.
Opened a long position at 80,046.4 with 100x leverage, now at 80,921.8.
From 44% to 109%, that's an increase of 65 points. That wouldn't mean much on other trades, but with 100x leverage, those 65 points came at the cost of a displacement of 875.4 points. In other words, if it retraces 875.4 points, this doubling will be wiped out completely, not a cent left.
What I fear most are the three words "within reach." 81,000 is just 78.2 points away, 0.10% — tonight I've paid too many tuition fees on these three words. $ZEC changed hands three times at the 1300 threshold, $SNDK hovered around 1300 for two hours but couldn't break through. "Almost there" and "definitely will get there" are never the same.
The three things I fear most: first, the itch to add positions and push to 200%. Second, the 1.08% cushion is too thin, just a pinprick away. Third, dawn is near, exhaustion is extreme, yet this is when I need to be most alert.
So don't fight it. Realize most profits, move the stop-loss up to break even. Reduce positions if it falls back to 80,000, then watch 82,000 after it stands above 81,000. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议