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Also bullish on SOL, but placing stop losses at 99.5 and 97 led to completely different results on Sunday.
That day, the intraday low was 98.77 and the high was 103.07. The price dipped just below the 100 integer level for a bit, but was quickly bought back. The order placed at 99.5 was stopped out, while the one at 97 was untouched, and later the price even returned to 101.
This kind of behavior happens around this level every time. Everyone is watching 100, so naturally stop-loss orders pile up just below 100. Sometimes the price has to dip down first to clear these orders before it can rebound. With light weekend trading, these spikes are even more likely.
On the flip side of the integer level, buy orders also accumulate here. Since October, 100 has been defended several times, leaving many long lower shadows on the candlesticks, showing that there are buyers below. Among these buyers are spot holders and long contract traders, who face different situations: spot holders can ignore a dip, but contract traders must act when the price hits their level.
Leverage is even more direct. Positions with over 50x leverage get liquidated with less than a 2-point retracement. From 103 to 98.77 is a drop of over 4%, so high-leverage positions can't wait for a rebound at that low. Some split their positions into two orders, one at 102 and one at 99, averaging a cost around 100.5, which can hold a bit longer in a Sunday market like this. $SOL $BTC liquidation map shows 3 billion downwards and 10 billion upwards. The last time this 1 to 3.3 ratio appeared was before the bull run on August 16, at the end of the bear market. One indicator cannot predict the future direction, but at least it shows that the shakeout over the past month has been very successful. $SUI #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Bitcoin V1 Version Attack and Theft of 8.5 BTC: An Early Warning on Bitcoin Vulnerabilities and Quantum Resistance Risks
1. Nature of the Incident: Early Protocol Design Flaws Show Security Is Not Invulnerable
The earliest Bitcoin V1 original client had a code verification logic vulnerability that allowed hackers to bypass checks and illegally transfer assets, directly stealing 8.5 BTC. Many believed back then that Bitcoin's cryptographic system was "absolutely secure and unbreakable," but this attack shattered that naive belief:
Bitcoin's security relies on a dual guarantee of code implementation plus cryptographic algorithms; it does not inherently possess an everlasting security aura.
At that time, it was ordinary computers and code bugs that broke it; future potential threats include quantum computers attacking the elliptic curve secp256k1 signature algorithm cryptographically. History has proven that even mechanisms widely trusted as secure can have fatal weaknesses.
2. Vulnerability Fixes Depend on Network-wide Coordination, a Governance Challenge and Today’s Biggest Pain Point in Quantum Upgrades
After the vulnerability was discovered, Satoshi Nakamoto, all nodes, and miners needed to upgrade patches synchronously and reach unified consensus to block the vulnerability and mitigate risks.
The logic is identical in today’s quantum risk scenario: to resist Shor’s algorithm attacks, BTC must switch network-wide to a quantum signature scheme, requiring consensus among miners, exchanges, wallets, whales, and ordinary users.
Coordinating an upgrade for a simple code bug back then already tested community execution; replacing the underlying cryptographic algorithm now involves far greater difficulty, disagreement, and migration costs than the V1 patch upgrade. This early incident exposed Bitcoin’s governance model’s inherent shortcoming—it lacks a centralized authority to enforce upgrades, making it easy to get stuck in consensus deadlocks during security crises.
3. "Risks Won’t Erupt Immediately, but Hidden Dangers Will Linger on the Chain Long-term," Highly Similar to Public Key Exposure Risks
Before exploitation, the V1 vulnerability quietly existed in the code, just lacking triggering conditions;
Currently, about 30% of Bitcoin addresses have exposed public keys permanently stored on-chain, effectively leaving “targets to be cracked” for future quantum computers—this is a static latent risk.
The commonality: hidden dangers may not erupt now, but once the corresponding attack tools mature, existing assets will be exposed en masse. This early theft incident was a small-scale rehearsal: underlying risks don’t disappear on their own; they wait for the right attack conditions.
4. Many Confuse Bitcoin’s Security with "SHA256 Hash Security," Blurring Security Boundaries
Bitcoin mining uses SHA256 hashing, widely considered quantum-resistant by academia; but transaction signatures use elliptic curve ECDSA, which is the weak link.
When V1 was stolen, many mistakenly thought the entire system was invulnerable, overlooking this weak link.
The same cognitive error is easy in the quantum era: many assume Bitcoin’s hash security equals overall quantum resistance, underestimating the signature security weakness. This early attack reminds us: a chain’s security is determined by its weakest link.
5. Historical Lesson: Vulnerability Risks Are Often Overlooked When Consensus Is Most Zealous
The V1 period was when Bitcoin’s early faith rapidly solidified, and the market mythologized its cryptographic security, underestimating software and protocol flaws.
Today, after decades of consensus accumulation, many still assume its cryptographic system is permanently usable, ignoring long-term threats accelerated by AI-driven quantum iteration.
The historical theft of 8.5 BTC serves as a warning: no matter how strong consensus is, it cannot override the objective law that underlying cryptography becomes obsolete with technological iteration.
6. Comparative Perspective: This Incident Highlights the Differentiated Value of Native Quantum-Resistant Public Chains
Bitcoin could only patch after the fact and coordinate network-wide upgrades; whereas chains like STRK, designed from the ground up with post-quantum cryptography, relying on STARK hash proof systems and account abstraction, proactively address cryptographic iteration risks without waiting for crises to force difficult network hard forks.
Of course, this is only a design-level difference; whether a project can successfully launch L1 and complete full-chain quantum resistance audits still involves many uncertainties.
7. Dialectical Boundary (Must Distinguish Two Types of Attacks, Not Confuse Them)
V1 theft = traditional code bug exploitable by classical computers;
Quantum risk = cryptographic math problem cracked by Shor’s algorithm, a fundamental algorithmic threat.
This incident does not prove quantum attacks are imminent but leaves the industry with the most important warning: never blindly and permanently trust a fixed underlying security scheme; cryptographic security must evolve continuously with computing power and technology iteration.Don't think of tech giants as such drama queens, with factions and life-or-death battles; this is purely mistaking business competition for palace intrigue.
Elon Musk's plan is to use production capacity to lower prices, but his own SpaceXAI is also a major consumer of computing power. If storage prices really drop, the whole industry benefits—where's the coercion or curse?
Jensen Huang's guarantee for NeoCloud is basically just to sell his GPUs and lock in customers.
As for Anthropic, paying for 10GW of computing power with convertible bonds precisely shows that the AI large model arms race has not stopped at all.
As long as the giants keep scrambling for computing power regardless of cost, the so-called overcapacity is a false proposition.
It's too early to call a computing power glut now; everyone is just racing to claim territory. Don't rush to guess who will fail, and don't apply conspiracy theories to normal business competition.🔍 The treasury has money, so should funding stop? Don't rush to conclusions. Zcash co-founder Sean Bowe stated that the treasury holds $125 million and proposed to terminate funding allocations, transferring the committee's original 8% share of newly minted $ZEC to a future miner reserve, while the funds already received remain with the committee. This is a proposal, not something already implemented.
An interesting detail here: the old funds remain untouched; what changes is the destination of new funds. I tend to see this as a reallocation of incentives rather than a direct benefit. Retaining the old funds means the committee won't immediately run out of resources; however, if new allocations stop, how long subsequent funding can continue depends on actual expenditures, not just the total treasury balance.
This is my speculation: if the proposal is adopted, the funding arrangement may lean more toward future mining incentives, and teams relying on allocations will need to reconsider their budgets. I will continue to monitor whether the proposal passes and whether treasury spending can justify stopping allocations.#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Before today's U.S. stock market opens, Coca-Cola, Corning, and Boeing will release earnings. How is the options market betting?
Brothers, for these three earnings reports before tonight's open, don't be fooled by the "usual suspects"; the options market has already laid its cards on the table.
Coca-Cola is expected to report EPS of 0.88 and revenue of 12.9 billion. But this stock has already risen 35% this year, with a Put/Call ratio of 0.99 in options—purely neutral, neither bulls nor bears dare to bet heavily. The market is really watching not the EPS, but whether the Asia-Pacific sales volume increase can offset the 9% drop in price mix—volume up, price down, making noise but not profit.
Corning is expected to report EPS of 0.88 and revenue of 5 billion. The Call/Put ratio is 1.3, leaning bullish. The logic is solid: demand for fiber optics from AI data centers, contracts with Amazon, Nvidia, and Meta are all there, and the Zacks model tags it as "possibly beating expectations." But remember, the last time after earnings, the stock dropped 12% in one day; this stock's temperament is to get hammered even with good results.
Boeing is expected to report a loss of 0.21 EPS and revenue of 23.8 billion. Options pricing implies a 5.73% two-way volatility, higher than the average 4% of the past four times. Long or short? It's unclear, but the direction is clear: the market is betting on big swings. The 737 MAX 10 just got certification, but the cash flow guidance is the real key, and the stock price is just a step away from its 52-week low.
For Coca-Cola, watch if profit margins can hold; for Corning, watch if the AI story can deliver; for Boeing, watch if cash flow can make sense. $KO $GLW 3 PM, the last calm before the FOMC is often the most dangerous.
BTC current price is about 80,800, locked between 80,000 and 86,000 for the past 9 days, with 30-day volatility compressed from 13% to 6%. Volatility contraction usually ends with a burst. Selling pressure concentrates around 81,000, but there are about $73 million buy orders stacked above 79,300 — it looks like there is support, but just this weekend it dipped to 79,146 briefly; when liquidity is thin, orders can't stop the dip. The 365-day moving average is right below, and my forced liquidation line at 78,837 is even lower. Any accelerated dip after a false break below 80,000 could directly hit me.
ETH is about 2,350, with 2,280–2,300 as the last support zone. Last night, a whale was liquidated at 2,282 minus 30 dollars, urgently adding 9.21 million USDC to push the forced liquidation price down to 2,181 — institutions are all adding margin, indicating that line is not a "technical support" but a "liquidation gravity." My 2,281 is right in there.
SOL is about 101, with the 100-dollar level repeatedly tested. Short-term moving averages are all pressing overhead, RSI at 35, stochastic indicators already in oversold territory, but oversold does not mean the decline stops, just that it slows down. ETFs are still flowing out, so SOL finding strength on its own is difficult.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ After the market closed on Wednesday, Google released its Q3 earnings report. Google's recent performance has been poor, with a nearly 20% pullback over the past 120 days, the largest among MAGS. The current PE ratio is only 16, and the stock price has fallen below the 200-day moving average.
There are three main reasons for Google's stock price pullback: first, market concerns that AI threatens the core search business, thereby affecting advertising revenue (which accounts for over 70% of Google's revenue); second, Gemini's performance lagging behind; third, Google's free cash flow turned negative for the first time last quarter, although other cloud providers face the same situation. The main reasons are still the first and second.
This Google earnings report needs to convey three signals to the market: first, the core business revenue has not lost market share or decreased due to AI. The current market expectation for Q3 advertising revenue is $83.2–$84.4 billion, a year-over-year increase of 12.5%–13%. Second, Gemini's performance optimization. Gemini is currently entering the search field and is also advancing consumer-grade products.
The third issue is free cash flow. If capital expenditures this quarter are similar to Q2, operating cash flow will be sufficient to cover these expenditures, and Google is expected to return to positive free cash flow.
The biggest surprise in Google's earnings is Cloud. Cloud revenue is expected to exceed $30 billion this quarter, with remaining performance obligations exceeding $550 billion, and growth exceeding 90%. This means it has begun to catch up with capital expenditure growth, which will greatly boost the stock price.To pour some cold water first, I don't consider the “SEC Innovation Exemption” as a free pass for stock tokenization. According to PANews citing reporters, IBM, Oracle, Intel, and IonQ have newly opposed OKX and ICE Markets tokenizing their stocks, bringing the total number of opposing issuers to 26. My short-term outlook on this track is bearish.
There are two reasons: 26 oppositions indicate that resistance from issuers cannot be ignored; if objections need to be coordinated one by one, the product launch pace may be delayed. Another is that just because tokens can be traded doesn't mean the rights of holders are clear; if the boundaries of rights are vague, I speculate that ordinary users' willingness to participate will also be discounted.
Those who are bullish might agree. If the SEC clearly defines feasible boundaries, issuer objections are addressed, and holder rights are clearly arranged, I would change my stance. Regarding these 26 oppositions, do you lean bullish or bearish on stock tokenization? Share your reasoning.The recent stagnant consolidation essentially reflects the macro environment waiting for the starting gun: with the Fed's policy meeting approaching this week, the market is generally holding steady but fears Powell's hawkish tone and a renewed expectation of a rate hike in December; meanwhile, the Middle East not striking Iran is only a short-term cooldown, election risks remain unresolved, compounded by concentrated outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum last Thursday and Friday, with Ethereum seeing continuous net outflows, leading to a lack of incremental buying on the floor. AI tech stocks are also diverting risk capital, so the price comparison is not smoothly falling nor is the rebound strong, naturally leading to compression. In the short term, expect a 791-810 range consolidation. From the overall pattern, bears still hold the advantage. Going forward, focus on effective breakouts above or below the range; until a breakout occurs, the trading strategy should mainly be to short on rallies. $BTC $ETH In the futures market, industrial enterprises shift their budgets from R&D to production support. I usually first look at what the money is being repurposed for, without rushing to judge whether it's bullish or bearish. In the crypto market, this also involves who decides the allocation of issuance revenue.
Sean Bowe, co-founder of Zcash, proposed terminating grant funding on the grounds that the treasury holds $125 million, suggesting that the committee transfer 8% of the newly minted $ZEC to a reserve fund aimed at future miners. The committee would retain the funds it has already received; this is still just a proposal.
I see this more as a long-term incentive realignment rather than an immediate price catalyst: retaining existing funds does not mean grants are cut off immediately; a reserve for future miners does not mean current security investments increase. My concern is that if spending from the treasury lacks planning after stopping grants, the development side might face pressure. Are there friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? Would you see this as an improvement in budget discipline or a contraction in R&D investment? Federal Reserve decision revealed tonight: The real battleground in the crypto market is in the "wording" rather than the interest rate
In the early hours of Thursday Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. The market widely expects no change — probability about 90%. But for crypto investors, the real eye of the storm is not the interest rate itself, but how the wording in the statement handles the December policy.
Risk-off sentiment has already fermented in advance. Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Monday, marking the third test of this psychological level in three weeks; Ethereum simultaneously dipped near $2,300, with mainstream coins generally under pressure. Wintermute pointed out that BTC has been oscillating narrowly between $80,000 and $82,500 in the past three weeks, and the FOMC "is very likely to decide the breakout direction." QCP Capital identified key supports: Bitcoin at $78,000, Ethereum at $2,150.
The core variable lies in how the statement sets the tone for December. The market has priced in about an 84% chance of a rate hike in December. If Waller strengthens the tightening stance at the press conference, the downside will open after $80,000 is broken; conversely, if the wording leaves room for December, Bitcoin is expected to reclaim $82,000, and Ethereum can also get a breather.
The key turning point has never been "whether to raise rates," but "what to say next." Tonight, language is direction.
$BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 最脆弱的一环不在价格，在杠杆的多头心里。 FOMC前夜，谁还在硬撑？ 今天看盘有种很微妙的感觉：表面风平浪静，底下全是被动挨打的仓位。BTC在79800到79330之间磨，摸过80291的顶又软下来，24小时跌了0.54%到0.76%，月内累计回撤约5%，已经连跌三周。恐惧贪婪指数48，中性，比之前的50还降了一点，情绪在悄悄泄气。 衍生品这边才是重点。24小时爆仓约1.35亿美元，其中多头占了9174万，比例高得有点刺眼。翻译一下：押涨的人正在FOMC前主动撤退，不是被吓跑，是提前认输。这种多头挤压往往意味着短期抛压释放了一部分，但也说明市场不敢在决议前加注，反弹的燃料变少了。 真正的重定价藏在利率预期里。本次按兵不动的概率90.6%到91%，几乎板上钉钉，但12月加息概率已经蹿到接近80%。市场交易的早就不是这次会怎样，而是"宽松叙事还能撑多久"。这个预期差如果继续发酵，风险偏好会被一点点抽走，BTC首当其冲，ETH跟跌，山寨的弹性只会更夸张。 偏多的路径也有：多头清洗得够狠，决议落地后利空出尽，容易出现一波挤压式反弹，尤其是空头如果堆起来。但风险没被充分计价的地方在于，12月加息Deep oversold + short squeeze, the rebound is "mechanical"
Looking at the technical side, the nature of this rebound is clear at a glance.
According to KuCoin Research data: BTC's 1-hour and 15-minute RSI levels were only 52.4 and 54.9 respectively before the rebound, while the daily RSI was at 44.2. The short-term cycle turning up from the oversold zone is a classic trigger condition for a technical rebound.
But more directly, the liquidation data shows a directional reversal. On a 24-hour scale, long positions liquidated $33.8 million, short positions liquidated $19.5 million, with longs dying more. However, in the last 12 hours, shorts liquidated $16.5 million, longs liquidated $10.8 million, with shorts overtaking.
To translate: the weekend's drop was longs dying. Monday's rebound is shorts dying.
Those who chased shorts below 79,500 to 80,000 were betting that "breaking 80,000 means a trend." Their liquidation lines were triggered by the rebound, forcing them to buy to close positions. A significant portion of the fuel for this rebound from 79,146 to 80,300 comes from the shorts' own margin. $BTC $ETH $DOOD #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 $UNITREE
Today's intraday information is very clear. After a surge in the morning session, it has been grinding below the average price, obviously a group of smart money doesn't want to hold through the uncertainty overnight and has exited early.
Right now, sentiment > performance, valuation is sky-high, combining both elasticity and damage potential.
Don't heavily bet on earnings announcements in the short term:
If the good news exceeds expectations, don't get carried away chasing the high; it's easy to get hit with a long upper shadow candle. If performance is mediocre or guidance disappoints, don't stubbornly hold on; high valuations can punish without mercy. The first thing to watch short term is support; the intraday low is the short-term sentiment watershed.
Talking about the long term:
Long-term buying of Unitree is not for current profits, but for the realization of expectations in humanoid robots and self-developed servo physical AI.
The sector logic is sound, but the realization cycle is extremely long. Long-term investors must accept that the market will repeatedly slap them in the face, and from time to time someone will jump out and say, "Isn't this just a toy?"
The core long-term tracking points are simple: servo shipment volume, fixed-point orders, and whether gross margin can be maintained. Continuous order fulfillment means the story is not empty talk; if it stays stuck at prototypes and exhibitions, no matter how good the theme sounds, it can't support hundreds of times price-to-earnings.
Short term is about playing with sentiment, capital, and earnings expectations; if the rhythm is off, you get hit quickly; long term is about enduring the sector's verification, testing patience, and you can't just lie down and wait to get rich.
Unitree is suitable for small position trial-and-error speculation, not for going all in. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
SK Hynix announces earnings tonight, has the options market already voted with real money?
Brothers, SK Hynix will release its Q3 results after the US market closes tonight, and the conference call in Korea starts at 9 AM tomorrow. This stock is no longer about betting on earnings, but on dividends.
The market's biggest concern is whether the 16 trillion won dividend will be paid. The company says "not yet decided," but has promised in black and white to announce an additional shareholder return plan after the board meeting on the 28th.
The previous 40 trillion won buyback has already been completed ahead of schedule. Now they are holding the money earned from selling Kioxia shares, and market expectations are very high. The earnings themselves? Revenue is expected to triple year-on-year to 99 trillion won, but Q2 missed once already, so no one is confidently betting on it this time.
How is the options market positioned? Mostly bullish, but very restrained.
Last week, there was $1.49 million in Bull Put Spreads at 190/150 collecting premium, and $480,000 in Bull Call Spreads betting on 200-225. The Put/Call ratio is 0.48, well below the normal 0.74, with Calls clearly dominant. But don't get carried away—the implied volatility prices in an 8.58% move after earnings, so both bulls and bears are betting on direction, not giving away money one-sidedly.
Options money is betting on "holding 140, touching 200," but the premise is that the dividend plan must not disappoint. Earnings beating expectations would be icing on the cake; a dividend shortfall would be fatal. Tonight, the focus is not on revenue numbers, but on those few words about shareholder returns during the conference call.SpaceX's planned $40B lease financing for GPUs and data centers shows how AI infrastructure is becoming a credit-market story, not just a technology race. Starlink and launch revenue may strengthen funding access, but returns still hinge on delivery timing, financing costs, and compute demand. A year-end closing would not settle those questions.
#SpaceX40BGPUDealAgreed The largest coin hoarding company made zero purchases in a week; don't take it as a bottom-fishing invitation.
Noticed: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed that from 10/19 to 10/25 it neither bought nor sold Bitcoin, holding steady at 848,517 coins, while repurchasing STRC preferred shares worth about $204.9 million during the same period; CME FedWatch prices about a 90% chance the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged on 10/28. OKX current price is about $79,700, with a 24-hour high of $80,849.9 and low of $79,455.8—stuck just below $80,000.
My view: The halt in buying is a company capital management move, not a buy signal for you; the rate hold is almost fully priced in, betting on a dovish statement to bottom-fish is the easiest way to get cut.
What I do: Stand firm and observe, don’t chase this "breakdown bargain"; if it breaks below the 24-hour low of $79,455.8 and fails to recover, consider this round of "$80k psychological support" invalid.
Before the FOMC statement, don’t assume a trend reversal to bullish.
Do you think $BTC will first hover around $79k, or continue testing $77k?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#Strategy停买比特币 #美联储议息前观望 #Strategy暂停增持，Strive与BitMine扩大储备 Anthropic, the parent company of Claude, has released stunning Q3 data.
At the investor meeting on October 14, it was disclosed that quarterly revenue reached $16.8 billion, a 45% quarter-over-quarter surge, with revenue for the first three quarters already seven times last year's total.
The rolling 12-month growth rate peaked at 1200%, an exceptionally rare level of growth.
The growth is mainly driven by B2B enterprise purchases, with 80% of revenue coming from corporate clients, and the number of million-dollar clients has doubled.
Claude Code has ignited developer demand, combined with cloud channel expansion, and Q3 free cash flow has already turned positive, with October revenue accelerating further.
The key point is not just that AI companies are making money, but that it answers a core market question: the AI investments made can truly convert into sustainable cash flow.
The AI narrative is shifting from a story to financial report realization, and this logic will follow Nasdaq risk sentiment, indirectly transmitting to BTC.
This week, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple are releasing earnings reports; let's see if resonance can be formed.
Do you think the AI commercialization market can continue to ferment? Follow for ongoing earnings analysis during earnings week.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $GOOGL $AAPL $MSFT 10.27 Financial Summary
1. The Dollar System 2.0 is a "Four-in-One" Combination
The Dollar itself: It still holds the dominant position in global trade and foreign exchange reserves, with the depth of the US Treasury market as its foundation.
Oil and key energy: The US continuously strengthens its control over the global energy market through military and other means; the dollar settlement right in energy trade is the basis of traditional hegemony.
AI chip semiconductors: The US leads in high-end chips and foundational models, but we are catching up quickly; the next 2-3 years are a critical competitive window.
Cryptocurrency and stablecoins: This is a new variable in the digital era. After the US "Genius Act" officially takes effect in January next year, progress will accelerate. Stablecoins will be deeply linked with the dollar and US Treasuries, becoming an extension of the dollar in the digital world.
2. Our response logic is very clear: first secure safety, then seek opportunities
Currently, the mainland is a major financial country but not yet a financial power, so the top priority is to maintain the financial safety bottom line.
Hong Kong’s positioning is an "offshore testing ground": it has the foundation of an offshore market and can isolate financial risks from the mainland, effectively serving as a "firewall" for us.
If it keeps pace: If stablecoins and tokenized markets truly become the trend, we can gain discourse power and opportunities through Hong Kong.
If it retreats: If development falls short of expectations, risks will not transmit to the mainland, avoiding major damage.
3. Timing window judgment
The US has accelerated progress on these four elements this year because it feels its "window period" is narrowing.
There is still some convergence this year, but starting next year, it will push forward rapidly and comprehensively, so our response window is actually very tight.
4. Additional information
Core of the "Genius Act": It requires stablecoin issuers to use US Treasuries and dollars as reserves, essentially converting global demand for stablecoins into demand for US Treasuries, further consolidating the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency, while bringing stablecoins under US regulatory oversight to combat illegal financial activities.
Hong Kong’s actual actions: In 2026, it is already advancing stablecoin issuer regulations, digital asset trading licenses, and trial operations of a gold central clearing system, truly moving toward becoming an "offshore financial testing ground."
Summary: The Dollar System 2.0 is a combination of "traditional hegemony + new digital track." Our response is "using Hong Kong as a buffer, neither absent from future digital financial competition nor allowing risks to breach the firewall." $BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 On the eve of the FOMC: Four coins waiting for each other
Tuesday morning session, the last full day before the decision, the market is generally cautious.
$BTC is consolidating around 80,700, holding sideways at 80,000 for two days; after losing 81,000, it has not quickly reclaimed it. On-chain whales are distributing around 80,000, but retail inflows hit a six-month high. The probability of the FOMC holding steady at midnight is 84.5%, with focus on Powell's press conference: if 80,000 breaks, watch 78,000; if dovish, look at 82,000. It is not advisable to heavily bet on direction now.
$ENA is at 0.209, after an 8% rally two days ago due to preemptive rate cut expectations, it has stabilized, and chasing high is paused. Its USDe collateralized short-term Treasury yield logic remains; if the decision is dovish, it may rebound again; if hawkish, it might give back gains. Not recommended to chase.
$HYPE is at 76.6, on-chain exchanges did not follow the rally. Its order book is built on a self-developed L1, with protocol fees flowing back to holders; it did not follow ENA's rise, indicating funds prefer the yield narrative. 75 is the next level to watch; avoid leverage before the decision.
$WLD is at 0.472, consolidating for a day. The iris identity network lacks an interest rate story, privacy controversies and regulatory ambiguity remain; before the decision, it is more prone to follow the broader market with potentially larger volatility than mainstream coins.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Even with macro liquidity easing further, it cannot patch security vulnerabilities in protocols. On Nexus reported that its older trading platform DotSwap V1 was attacked; the attacker exploited the legacy server-side signature mechanism and within about 4 hours transferred approximately 8.5 BTC from liquidity pools and accounts, valued at around $685,000.
My speculation is: if external liquidity tightens, such incidents will raise the risk threshold for capital participation in Bitcoin DeFi. The reason is practical: if the old mechanism can still cause losses, capital must reassess security costs; if users withdraw liquidity as a result, trading depth may also be pressured, affecting the remaining users.
I tend to view this as a repricing of security risk rather than a direct macro negative for $BTC. Beyond the amount, I am more concerned whether capital is willing to continue bearing protocol risk. Facing this kind of news, are people now more focused on the Fed's interest rate path or on the impact of dollar liquidity on on-chain capital inflows?Is the coin-buying maniac Saylor not buying BTC this week? This time, the money was spent on his own company's stock. Last week, Strategy took out $205 million to repurchase about 2.06 million shares of STRC preferred stock, while the BTC holdings remain at 848,517 coins, not a single one added.
Seeing this news, my first reaction was also: Is the guy out of money? Looking further into the accounts, there’s still about $242 million in regular cash, and another $4.83 billion in dollar reserves, mainly kept for dividends and debt interest. The disposable cash has indeed decreased quite a bit, but just because he didn’t buy for one week doesn’t mean he’s out of funds. In the previous two weeks, he was still buying BTC while repurchasing STRC; this time he only bought preferred stock.
For the market, the bulls lost a familiar buying signal, which is a bit discouraging. Especially since BTC is still hovering around 79,800, just climbed back above 80,000 and got pushed down again. The 15-minute 20 moving average is at 80,041; until this is reclaimed, I’m not eager to chase longs. I want to wait and see around 79,000; if someone steps in, trying a small position is fine; if it really drops straight down, I might hesitate to press further. If longs break below 78,800, I’ll exit first, and take some off near 80,000, so I don’t get too optimistic after a rebound thinking it will go straight to 81,000.
I’m quite curious if Saylor will buy again next week. If he posts another buying chart, those who criticized him for being out of money today will probably immediately change their tune and shout that the bull market is back.Previously, after contract liquidations, the market could still recover on the same day. But in the past two days, after contract liquidations, the overall open interest (OI) in the contract market has generally dropped by more than 20%. This indicates that the entire market is waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision.
The fact that there will be no rate hike is basically certain. The market's focus is actually on the Fed's tone: whether it will proceed with a scheduled rate hike in December and another one next year, or take a more aggressive stance to fight inflation. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
This week, the critical points for several major coins basically lie in liquidity and interest rate stance:
$BTC's 80,000 level was originally a strong support, but now everyone is indifferent to it. Currently, BTC is below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages (both lines pressing near 82,000), with an RSI of 42.7, neutral to slightly bearish.
The 80,000 round number is now a psychological level and also the cost line for ETF participants. October still saw a net outflow of about 314 million. If the Fed's tone remains hawkish, I estimate it will break below 79,000.
$ETH has been the weakest in the past half month, with price holding below the 2,320 USD pivot, suppressed by the 50-period EMA. Exchange reserves have climbed to 14.93 million coins ready to sell anytime. Coinbase premium dropped to -0.1173, the lowest in two months. October ETF net outflow of about 1.08 billion is the worst of the year. If there is a hawkish statement, it will break below 2,200.
$SOL has the greatest elasticity but is most tightly bound by macro factors. It has now dropped below the 100.58 USD pivot, with RSI at 44.9, showing weakness.
SOL has potential because its ecosystem is real: Q3 saw 8.92 billion non-voting transactions, up 104% year-on-year, and September stablecoin transfers hit a record 5.57 billion. There is price misalignment here; once macro conditions recover, SOL's gains will be significant. A-share Queen Zhang Sufen was silent after seeing it: "CORE hard fork saved the chain, but who will take the 69 million 'ghost chips'?"
Investors familiar with Zhang Sufen's contrarian strategy know clearly that she dares to lurk in low-position unpopular stocks only when the risk boundaries are clear, with no hidden time bombs. Even if the listed company's performance is sluggish, there won't suddenly appear a large unknown chip amount to crash the market at any time; the total share capital and unlocking schedule are all open and transparent, and negative factors are measurable. In contrast, although the CORE hard fork urgently plugged the reward loophole and destroyed 186 million abnormal tokens still in the loophole address, saving the protocol from being destroyed by infinite inflation—one could say the hard fork saved this chain—69 million ghost chips had long been transferred to external wallets and cannot be recovered. This chip amount is an unpredictable hidden risk hanging over all holders' heads. The most terrifying aspect of this chip amount is: the holder's identity is unknown, the selling time is unknown, and the selling scale is unknown. Once the market warms up, it could be dumped in batches at any time, causing sudden selling pressure during the rise. In Zhang Sufen's evaluation system, this unquantifiable hidden chip risk is an extremely dangerous variable. Zhang Sufen, doing contrarian investment, can tolerate long-term price declines but will not accept a huge latent selling pressure with completely unknown unlocking time. The hard fork only stopped the bleeding; it did not eliminate the biggest chip risk. Even if the coin price is low, as long as the ghost chips remain, combined with continuous withdrawal of validation nodes and the SatPay landing being far off, it does not meet her stock selection safety standards. Folks, Glassnode just released a very interesting set of data, which is good news for those of us looking to get in now✨!
Here's a simple translation:
At the end of September, almost 100% of the short-term buyers of Bitcoin were making a profit😳. Think about it, when everyone is profiting, even a slight dip will cause everyone to rush to take profits, creating extremely heavy selling pressure.
But now? The profit ratio of this group has dropped to around 70%. This means that after a month of ups and downs, some of the people who chased the highs have given back profits or even got stuck. The impulse to "dump and run" has clearly cooled down💔.
So, for those optimistic about Bitcoin's future trend, the current entry environment is indeed much healthier than the extreme "everyone profiting" state from a month ago. Selling pressure has eased, so the resistance to upward movement is reduced. But remember, lighter selling pressure doesn't mean an immediate surge; it just means the foundation is more stable.
Do you think this is a good time to slowly build a position? Come to the comments and share your thoughts👇🥺
$BTC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The Federal Reserve's policy meeting officially started today 📅 Let's clarify the timeline first: The meeting runs from October 27 to 28 US time, today is the first day; the interest rate statement won't be released until 2 AM Beijing time on October 29, so don't rush to expect results during the day.
This time, I'm focusing on three things 👀 First, whether the interest rate aligns with market expectations; if it's already priced in, the number alone has limited significance. Second, how the Fed describes inflation and the subsequent path; if they continue to emphasize pressure and hint at maintaining high rates, risk assets might feel uncomfortable. Third, my biggest concern is BTC's movement: if it doesn't fall under bearish news, it means selling pressure might not be strong; if the news isn't bad but the rebound is weak, we should be wary of the market's own weakness.
Personally, I'm still cautious 🧊 I won't call a reversal just because of a pre-meeting rebound, nor will I conclude BTC must fall just because of the meeting. The key is not how hawkish or dovish the statement wording is, but the market's real reaction after hearing it. Is this meeting a turning point for BTC, or just another round of bulls and bears cutting each other? We'll keep watching 🔍
$BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 In the futures market, when the discount widens, I usually first look at hedging and position pressure, and I don't rush to conclude that prices will continue to fall. Turning to crypto, I also treat the funding rate as a signal of position cost rather than a directional indicator.
The public market data for Hyperliquid perpetual contracts shows that the highest absolute funding rate currently is for WLD, at -0.0067% per hour, which annualizes to about -59%, with a 24-hour change of -1.49%. A negative funding rate means shorts pay longs, which differs from traditional delivery contracts; perpetuals use this fee to balance longs and shorts.
My judgment is that this is more like a short cost warning rather than a bottom-fishing signal: if the negative funding rate persists, the cost of holding short positions will accumulate; but paying the fee does not necessarily mean shorts will exit, and prices may still face downward pressure. The annualized figure is just a projection based on the current rate and should not be considered a fixed return. Are there any friends who have transitioned from traditional markets and, when encountering such negative funding rates, interpret them like futures discounts?#BTC pullback after a rally, has market rotation begun? BTC is repeatedly tugging around $80,000, testing this level for the third time after three consecutive weeks of decline. The $79,400–$80,800 range is the short-term core battleground. The FOMC meeting will most likely determine the breakout direction; if $80,000 fails to hold, the next support is at $76,000. Standard Chartered has cut its year-end target from $150,000 to $100,000, with institutions clearly turning cautious on short-term upside. $BTC The sun is rising from the west? The coin-buying maniac Saylor has actually stopped! He hasn't bought a single BTC in the past week; instead, he spent $205 million to repurchase 2.06 million shares of STRC preferred stock. He still holds over 840,000 BTC. The tone has suddenly changed—what kind of signal is this?
Don't listen to analysts talking about "optimizing capital structure"—to put it bluntly, even landlords have to do the math. STRC has floating dividends, so the buyback is just to save some future interest payments. But the reality is, after spending over $200 million, he has no money left to keep buying BTC. Also, looking at his books, the ordinary cash balance has dropped to only $240 million; the remaining tens of billions in reserves are lifesaving funds reserved for paying dividends and debt interest, which he can't touch.
Is he chickening out? Not necessarily, but he definitely is under financial pressure. In the short term, this is definitely a minor negative sentiment. BTC is already struggling like a dead dog around 80,000; the biggest bullish player suddenly stops supplying, and the market loses a major pillar. Expecting an immediate V-shaped rebound now is pure nonsense.
But I don't think the bull market is completely over. He's just adjusting finances, not liquidating and running. Next, let's closely watch two things: when he resumes buying coins and how much cash remains on his books. Don't rush to catch the falling knife. If BTC drops to 79,000 to 80,000 on this negative news with shrinking volume and stabilizes, then I'll consider picking up some bloodied chips. If it falls below 79,000 directly, just wait patiently for 77,000 to reassess. As for ETH, I don't even want to touch it for now.$Q's trend is literally writing madness all over its face!
It surged nearly 50 times from the bottom, with daily trading volume breaking 1 billion, even leaving $SOL behind. With the current market, having so much capital concentrated into one coin is very abnormal.
Looking back at history, every time it was a pump to dump, shakeout, then bottom consolidation to accumulate. The current hype is retail chasing highs while the main players are distributing. The cost basis at the bottom is extremely low, so selling even a little now is huge profit.
After the last pump, how many thought it could still surge? The result was a sharp pullback within a week, a 30% drop in one day. Those chasing highs probably can't even get off the ride now. From the smart money perspective, the high-level consolidation is not a buildup, but waiting for more people to take the bag.
On-chain data shows whales entered with large volume at the bottom, cost around 0.088, and despite a 130% rise, no large-scale selling yet. This is the scariest part—they haven't left, indicating big moves are still coming.
Old Li's comprehensive judgment is that $Q is currently a high-level bull trap, waiting for retail to rush in, then exploding short positions to take profits. If the trend worsens, it might first spike down to shake out before rebounding. But remember, this is not an opportunity, it's a trap.
Also, on November 2nd, 248M will unlock, and most likely someone will pump and dump before the unlock. Don't end up being the bag holder thinking you're a bottom buyer hero. $SNDK $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $XRP
Someone told me that XRP will drop to $1 within a few days, and he is ready to buy at that level.
I didn't respond and first checked the data. On October 27, XRP pulled back from 1.2725 to around 1.30, with a 24-hour trading volume increasing by more than 20%. After being oversold, this rebound is not weak. Just tested, current price is 1.298, with a high of 1.3133.
The bearish person's reason is that global liquidity hasn't improved, and XRP, which relies on sentiment, will eventually go back. I don't completely disagree with this, but $1 is still more than twenty points away from now, so it sounds more like he's trying to boost his own confidence.
The scariest thing during a rebound is not that someone is bearish, but that the bearish person also starts buying. Once he buys, the chips transfer from panicked holders to patient holders, making the drop less painful.
I don't hold XRP in my position, just watching the show. But this time, I lean more towards the rebound side and will admit if proven wrong.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Altcoin activity on Hyperliquid is cooling, while stock-related contracts are attracting more trading volume. According to @TradingBeats_, 23 stock-related assets exceeded $10M in 24-hour volume, compared with just 13 altcoins. At the $5M threshold, stocks led 31 to 21. Key trends: ▪ Altcoin volume fell from September’s $4.108B peak to $1.254B, down nearly 70%. ▪ $HYPE and $ZEC accounted for 46.6% of total altcoin volume. ▪ Excluding them, altcoin volume was just $670M, less than half that of stTuttle applied for a 2x Asia Storage Stock ETF and a 2x Zcash ETF, and many people see this as a new capital inflow, initially calling it positive news.
On the other hand, I think this news has more significance for sentiment than as proof of demand. First, an application does not equal approval, so we can't count on capital inflow in advance; second, leverage amplifies exposure but does not mean increased usage demand for Zcash. Do you think $ZEC lacks more trading tools or actual use? Those with opposing views, come debate.Many people ask: Is saving up 5 BTC enough to retire?
The math is actually simple:
At $80k each, 5 coins are just under 3 million RMB. Following the 4% rule, you get 120,000 RMB per year, enough to live as a digital nomad in Dali or Chiang Mai; but to withstand inflation, raise kids, and prepare for old age in a first-tier city, it's far from enough. You’d at least need BTC to stabilize between $150k-$300k.
But whether you can retire on 5 coins is never really an "arithmetic problem," it’s a "human nature problem":
1. Scarcity is on your side: Globally, very few can hold a full coin securely, and 5 coins definitely make you a top player.
2. Volatility is the biggest test: If 100% of your assets are in crypto, a black swan event causing a 50% crash, combined with urgent family expenses, could force you to sell at a loss and plunge you back into poverty and the workforce.
The real "5 BTC retirement plan" isn’t to go all-in and sell everything at once, but rather: during bull markets, gradually cash out 1-2 coins to buy U.S. bonds, high-dividend stocks, or pay off your home as a "ballast"; keep the remaining 3 coins as a family heirloom, selling only 0.1-0.2 coins annually to cover living expenses.
Having coins in hand, plus cash flow and health insurance outside the market, is true freedom. How many $BTC do you think you need to save before you dare to fully relax?Strategy's market cap has surged into the global top 400, yet Saylor suddenly stopped buying Bitcoin.
This week's capital flow is very unusual. The company spent $193 million to repurchase its own STRC preferred shares, but only $22 million on buying Bitcoin. The repurchase amount is nearly 9 times the amount spent on buying Bitcoin; money is still being spent, but the priority has completely changed.
The reason lies in dividends. STRC's annualized dividend yield is as high as 12%. The larger the issuance scale, the heavier the future dividend burden will be. The current repurchase essentially reduces financing costs and eases future cash flow pressure. Simply put, previously they borrowed money to buy Bitcoin; now they are first addressing the cost of borrowing.
Looking at the background makes it even clearer. Bitcoin fell below $80,000, and the market is waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision. When the coin price drops, the valuation of the coins on the company's books is under pressure, but the high-yield preferred stock dividends will not decrease by a cent, nor will they automatically discount due to the coin price drop. Assets shrink, liabilities remain rigid, and the gap in between can only be borne by themselves.
This move indicates that Saylor's focus has shifted: from expanding holdings to maintaining financing channels. When the coin price rises, borrowing money to buy Bitcoin acts as an accelerator; when the price moves sideways or falls, the same leverage becomes a countdown.
If financing costs continue to rise and Bitcoin fails to rebound, this model of continuously increasing Bitcoin holdings through capital market financing will face increasing pressure. The real test is not whether to keep buying, but whether they can still borrow money cheaply. Watching the coin price also means watching these companies' financing costs.Strategy's market cap has entered the global top 400, yet Seller has stopped buying Bitcoin.
This week, the company spent $193 million to repurchase its own STRC preferred shares, but only $22 million to buy coins; the repurchase is nearly 9 times the amount spent on buying coins. The reason is that those preferred shares have an annual dividend of 12%, and the larger the scale, the heavier the future interest payment pressure.
Bitcoin fell below $80,000, the coin's valuation shrank, but the dividends remain intact. Previously, they borrowed money to buy coins; now they are first reducing financing costs, showing a change in posture. Going forward, the real focus is not whether they will keep buying, but whether they can still borrow money cheaply.$BTC is still in a bearish trend, but do not chase shorts because many people have already been shorting around 79000. Be cautious of a rebound!!
In the past two days, BTC has been oscillating between 79000 and 81000. It hasn't broken below 79000 nor surpassed 81000, just grinding without giving a clear signal. Although we remain bearish in the mid-to-long term with a target of 75000, there is no clear direction in the short term, so shorting at this level is not advisable. The area around 79000 is close to a support level. Moreover, the key observation is that the contract CVD has hit a new low at this level, but the price hasn't made a new low, and the spot market hasn't followed the new low either; instead, it continues to rise, and open interest is increasing. What does this signify? It indicates that a rebound could happen at any time because when the price dropped near 79000, short positions kept increasing, but the price couldn't go lower, proving that spot holders are supporting the bottom. This situation often leads to a rebound that traps those chasing shorts, so avoid shorting here as a rebound is likely.
So where might the rebound go? The first range is 81000 to 81500 because the price has yet to break 81000, and there is a parallel top on the 4-hour chart, so there is considerable liquidity here, making a move to this range possible. The second target is to clear liquidity around 82000, potentially reaching 82400-82800, as there is a daily-level gap and liquidity here. These are two possible rebound zones. $ETH A few days ago, $IRYS and $ORDER were just hyped up, and now it's $DOOD's turn! Bitcoin is still stuck around 80,000, but the Korean market is doing well, specifically pumping these small coins to the moon!
DOOD once surged to around 0.0026, with a Korean platform's 24-hour spot trading volume exceeding 130 billion KRW! The nominal value of perpetual positions even once surpassed 30 million USD, while the circulating market cap is only about 18 million USD. It's an NFT ecosystem coin—how could it suddenly be worth so many people desperately opening leverage?
What's even more interesting is that on some platforms, the funding rate reached as low as -0.56% every 4 hours! The price keeps rising higher and higher, so shorts not only suffer unrealized losses but also have to pay funding fees! Looking at this liquidation data, total liquidations reached 1.2622 million USDT, with shorts accounting for 789,800 USDT, more than 60%! The short side really got taken out a lot!
I suspect some capital first swept the spot market, forcibly pushing the price up to attract shorts who think the price has peaked, then borrowed from short covering to continue pumping. The more the shorts resist, the easier they become fuel for the pump!
Yesterday it was IRYS and ORDER, today it's DOOD. The projects are unrelated, but the hype method is so familiar! I think this wave is all about capital, leverage, and human nature—don't force an NFT value reappraisal! Whether there will be a second wave is another matter, but for a market with such extreme negative funding rates, anyone thinking of casually catching the top should first calculate how long they can hold on! Backfired. Just yesterday evening, Zcash Labs released Zcash JS, a JavaScript toolkit for building Zcash applications on the web, server, and mobile platforms. $ZEC surged over 3% against the trend that day. On one hand, they halted the Crosslink staking upgrade; on the other, they delivered new developer tools. Ajian believes this ambidextrous move is a typical case of governance disagreements and product advancement happening simultaneously. The final outcome is clear: for short-term price impact, the toolkit is more important than the staking solution because it lowers application development costs and directly affects the ecosystem. From another perspective, the very existence of such conflicts at least shows this chain still has considerable vitality rather than declining or stagnating 🤐Midday Report: The Calm Before the Storm! $BTC BTC firmly defends the 79,600 moving average convergence, tonight's Fed "hawkish pause" will decide the fate
📝 Main Text
Good afternoon, brothers. This morning's market can be best described as "still waters with slight ripples."
BTC current price is about 79,718 (-0.85%), fluctuating narrowly between 79,427 and 80,822 in the past 24 hours. ETH is around 2,307 (-0.83%), also trapped in a tight range between 2,294 and 2,343. On the 15-minute chart, the MA5/MA10/MA20 of both major coins are highly converged—BTC’s three moving averages squeeze between 79,780-79,847, ETH’s between 2,311-2,314. This pattern means only one thing: both bulls and bears are waiting, waiting for tonight’s Fed.
📊 Technical Analysis: The window for a breakout has opened
BTC’s SUPERTREND is at 80,146, the first resistance overhead. Below, 79,607 is the early morning low and the last short-term defense line. ETH’s SUPERTREND is near 2,307, with price just clinging to this line, caught in a dilemma.
Such tight moving average convergence means that any slight push from either side could trigger a rapid directional move. Tonight is that opportunity.
🏛️ Tonight’s Core Issue: Not whether to hike, but how the "hawkish pause" is framed
The Fed will hold its policy meeting from October 27 to 28, with results announced tomorrow night. According to London Stock Exchange futures data, the probability of holding rates steady in October is as high as 90.6%, with the market almost unanimously expecting "no change."
But this is by no means a signal that "tightening is over."
The real game is in December. The market currently prices a 67.5% to 68.9% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point hike in December. In other words, the market’s script is: pause in October but leave the door open for a December hike—the so-called "hawkish pause."
More importantly, this October meeting will not release new economic forecasts (no dot plot), chaired by Kevin Walsh, with the post-meeting statement as the sole policy signal. Bank of America even expects the press conference to be unusually brief, about 30 minutes with no Q&A. This means the market will have to interpret December’s true intentions from a subtly worded statement.
There are two layers of impact on the crypto market:
First, the possibility of short-term "bad news fully priced in." After the September hike, BTC and ETH reacted mildly immediately but then rose 11.58% and 11.94% respectively over the next 7 days, with SOL surging 18.70%, indicating that once the policy is implemented and uncertainty removed, risk appetite actually recovers. If tonight’s statement is not more hawkish than expected, the market may replay the "bounce on landing" scenario.
Second, structural liquidity withdrawal. Besides the Fed, there is an underestimated variable: Anthropic’s IPO valuation range is as high as 1.5 to 2 trillion USD, planning to raise over 100 billion USD, expected to list mid-November. The AI giant’s IPO will siphon off market risk appetite and liquidity. Bitcoin at the 80,000 level must not only face the Fed’s wording but also competition from capital migrating from high-volatility assets to new stocks.
📰 Signals Beyond the Market
BTC spot ETFs barely maintained a net inflow of $301 million last week but saw a net outflow of $314 million for the full month of October, showing overall fund flow volatility. Institutional behavior is also diverging: Strategy paused Bitcoin purchases and switched to buying preferred shares; Strive, on the other hand, bought 6,182 BTC aggressively. Large funds have not formed a consensus at this level.
💡 Midday Trading Reminders (Extremely Important)
First, do not heavily bet on direction before tonight. Moving average convergence plus the eve of a major event is the most likely time for "both sides to get hit." Whether you are bullish or bearish, heavy positions before the statement are essentially gambling, not trading.
Second, those without positions should keep waiting. Wait for tonight’s statement, then see if BTC holds above 80,150 (SUPERTREND) or breaks below 79,600; see if ETH stabilizes above 2,320 or falls below 2,290. Once direction is clear, follow on the right side—even if profits are smaller, certainty is far better than guessing now.
Third, those with positions should reduce leverage to the minimum. If you have open trades, long or short, tighten stop losses before the event. Tonight’s volatility won’t be small; high leverage has no margin for error against spikes.
📌 Summary
BTC and ETH moving averages have converged to the extreme, and the market is holding its breath for the Fed’s "hawkish pause" tone. The consensus is no hike in October; the key is how the door is left open for December. Control your trades before tonight; follow the direction after. Cash in hand means opportunities are never lacking.
Brothers, what do you think? After tonight’s statement, will BTC break upward or downward? Let’s discuss in the comments👇#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Staring at the screen for a long time, I suddenly feel this market is quite darkly humorous.
Today's biggest bearish factor is not some macro data, nor the Federal Reserve, but "insiders" running first.
Arthur Hayes casually said on X, "I sold everything," and casually dumped 6,400 ETH worth $15.2 million. He said it very bluntly: "The market has to fall first before it can rise again."
More intriguingly, a wallet associated with the Ethereum Foundation sold 2,785 ETH on CoW Swap today at an average price of $2,304, cashing out $6.42 million and then converting it into stablecoins.
Even the project team is cashing out at this point, while retail investors are still staring at the candlestick charts waiting for a "bullish rebound."
The ETF side is even more straightforward. On October 27, the US spot Ethereum ETF had a single-day net outflow of $88.58 million, with BlackRock's ETHA alone withdrawing $104.71 million, setting a record for the largest single-day outflow.
Throughout October, Ethereum ETFs have seen cumulative outflows exceeding $1 billion, more than three times the outflow scale of Bitcoin ETFs.
This is not a technical correction. This is capital voting with its feet.
As for my short position, the average price is 2,583, current price 2,307, floating profit 1069%. The liquidation price is far away at 2,779, with more than four hundred dollars in between. You are heavily buying near 2,300,
The game you are playing is "it should rebound after falling too much"; I hold a small position, playing "which direction the money is flowing."
Below $2,209, there is $978 million worth of long position liquidations pending. This number is the guillotine hanging over the bulls' heads.
I don't guess the bottom, I just follow the money. What do you think, when both the Foundation and Hayes are selling, how many more days can the 2,300 level hold?
$BTC $ETH $DOOD
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ $BEAT manipulation by the whales is as simple as breathing, those holding short positions without exiting are regretting it.
I mentioned yesterday that tokens would unlock on November 1st, increasing market circulation. The whales will definitely use this wave to pump and dump, but the large amount of trapped positions above won't allow the price to rise too high, just around the range I predicted.
Taking both long and short positions is also a common tactic of the whales. You can see in the chart that the same address related to the project team is selling off in batches, so BEAT has a pullback trend, and the short positions are also taken advantage of accordingly.
Currently, that related address is buying back, and with volume increasing from hourly to daily charts, it is predicted that the whales are preparing a second wave of pump. This wave is expected to break the previous high again from 0.08607 to 0.095-0.1 (this is conservative; I feel it might return near 0.12).
Therefore, short positions should exit, and long positions shine again. I suggest those entering the market pay attention to position management and keep reserves for averaging down.
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Tom was declaring the bull market officially underway on Monday, yet BitMine bought just 10,452 $ETH last week, worth $24.5M at an average price of $2,344, while spending around $46M on share buybacks.
It’s now only 58,000 $ETH away from its 5% supply target, but this slowdown has delayed progress a little.
Still, maybe this gives the E-Guardians five more weeks to mentally prepare! 🤪
#BTCETFFlowSwings Trading BTC, the biggest fear isn't missing the bottom, but thinking the bull market is back just after a few days of rebound.
Look at the recent ETF fund flows.
On October 19, there was a net inflow of about $527 million, and on the 21st, another inflow of about $525 million.
But on the 22nd, about $636 million flowed out at once, and on the 23rd, another $138 million flowed out.
Money comes fast and goes fast too.
So don't rush to chase the price just because of a large inflow in one day. ETF capital entering doesn't mean the market will immediately reverse.
I've been through several bull and bear cycles, and now I value one thing more: making a wrong judgment isn't scary, but making a wrong judgment and loading up your position fully is the real trouble.
I'd rather earn a little less and wait for both capital and price to give signals.
Market opportunities are always there, but once the principal is lost, it's not that easy to earn it back.
When you trade BTC now, do you start with a small position to test the waters, or wait for a clear trend before entering?
#BTC Terrifying, absolutely terrifying, looking at the current trend.
This wave of correction is really on a high level.
$ETH has rolled down all the way from the high of 2527, without even a decent rebound in between.
It's completely a one-sided slow bleeding meat grinder market.
The EMA5, 10, and 20 moving averages above the head form an impenetrable air defense net, tightly trapping the bulls underneath, not even leaving a gap to catch a breath.
Every time you think it has bottomed out, it reverses and smashes out a new low, now directly approaching 2300!
The scariest thing is not the crash itself, but this kind of chronic bleeding torture.
The overall funding environment is extremely tight, and the interest rate hike meeting feels like a huge stone pressing on the chest.
This is the cruelest truth of the financial market.
Back when I failed in my startup and was burdened with millions in debt, I had already experienced this suffocating feeling of being gradually driven to the edge by the trend.
So I don’t bet on the bottom; I only follow the trend.
My profit has already doubled, breaking through 101.71%!
From 2568 all the way down to now, how many times have I been tempted by fake rebounds?
This is discipline.
The 2300 level is by no means a solid bottom; this level of correction is aimed at breaking through retail investors’ psychological defenses.
The real abyss is still ahead.
$BTC
$SOL
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ BTC is repeatedly testing $80,000, but ETF funds are like a "split personality." What the hell are we supposed to be watching?
(1/6) Brothers who have been watching the market recently should feel a strong sense of division.
On one side, BTC is stuck in a dilemma around $80,000, with the 10-year US Treasury yield high, suppressing risk appetite; on the other side, the capital flow in spot ETFs is as erratic as a "split personality disorder."
Peeling back the emotions, let's talk about the underlying logic of the current market with data.
(2/6) First, look at a set of strange data:
Last week, the overall net inflow of BTC spot ETFs was about $301 million, seemingly warming up; but the cumulative net outflow in October is still $314 million. Even more absurd, a few days ago BlackRock (IBIT) set a record for single-day inflow this year (about $665 million), but just a few days later, the entire ETF market saw a massive single-day outflow of $635 million.
Conclusion: Institutions haven't fled, but the divergence is huge, all engaging in very short-term swing trading.
It's a real, hard-fought battle.
(3/6) Who is draining BTC's liquidity?
Oil prices surged, AI concept stocks pulled back, and US Treasury yields oscillated at high levels. Against this backdrop, big money is essentially jumping back and forth between "risk aversion" and "FOMO on the sidelines."
BTC now is like a sandwich cookie; technically, it still holds above the 50-week moving average, but with any slight macro tremor, the psychological support at $80,000 has to be repeatedly tested. Galaxy Research Bullish Outlook: Now Is the Best Time to Buy $BTC!
Key points from the research report:
1. Technicals Confirm Recovery: BTC holds above the 200-week moving average, after a 44-week correction, it has reclaimed the 50-week moving average. The maximum drawdown this cycle is 53%, the shallowest bear market in history, and the halving cycle has surpassed previous bottom windows.
2. Selling Pressure Is Disappearing: Coins held for over 5 years have seen their monthly transfer volume nearly halved compared to 2024. Macro speculators and basis arbitrage funds have cut ETF and futures exposure by more than half, but long-term holders and institutional base positions remain solid.
3. Institutions Are Still Accumulating: Spot ETFs have increased holdings by about 87,000 BTC since the end of June. Even though the price previously dropped by a maximum of 53%, ETF holdings only fell 11% from peak to trough, indicating substantial capital has not exited.
4. Stronger Currency Depreciation Logic: U.S. debt has surpassed $40 trillion, the annual fiscal deficit is close to $2 trillion, and the 10-year Treasury yield once exceeded 5%. Massive debt, interest burdens, and credit expansion driven by AI investment make BTC, with its fixed supply, more attractive in the long term.
5. Market Sentiment Near Historical Bottom: In 2015 and 2018, Wall Street was enthusiastic about blockchain but neglected Bitcoin, which was then followed by major BTC rallies. Today, stablecoins, RWA, and stock tokenization are booming, but Bitcoin search interest has dropped to multi-year lows, a familiar scenario reemerging.The $80,000 level is being contested repeatedly; the most dangerous scenario might not be breaking below it, but rather this kind of false rebound.
What I’m more cautious about now is not BTC touching $80,000 again, but that as soon as the price stands back there, everyone treats it as a reversal. The 24-hour high is about $80,850, the low about $79,456, and the current price is near $80,000; this only indicates the price is tugging within a range and does not prove that buyers have taken control.
I break confirmation into two steps: first, see if it can close back above around $80,850, not just spike through intraday; second, see if it can hold near $80,000 on a pullback and form a higher low. Only if both happen does the rebound have a chance to upgrade from a "fill-in" to a structural repair. If it only briefly stands above $80,000 and then falls back into the range, with rebound highs getting lower each time, it looks more like bears using the rebound to shake out positions, and chasing in risks hitting selling pressure.
Conversely, don’t immediately assume a waterfall drop just because it can’t hold above. If the range low near $79,456 holds and selling pressure weakens, BTC may continue to consolidate; only a decisive break below this area with a failed rebound signals rebound failure and increased downside risk. My focus is not on whether $80,000 breaks or not, but whether there is follow-through after a breakout and whether the pullback is supported. Until I see these two, I don’t treat a sharp rally as a trend reversal nor rush to bet on one side.
$BTC #OKXOrbitTopicIsHere #OrbitDaily I'm a bit reluctant to chase this ETH short position anymore. The Delta between whales and retail has narrowed to -0.295; it was -1.2 at the deepest point this month, and previously around -0.35. The price hasn't really risen much, but the difference has been steadily moving back. It looks like the shorts are starting to pull back, but just from this line alone, it's unclear how many shorts have been closed or if any longs have been opened.
The troublesome part is, ETH is still at 2315, and the 15-minute 20 moving average at 2321 hasn't been reclaimed. Damn, looking at the data makes me want to buy, but looking at the candlesticks makes me want to pull back. If I force it now, going up near 2330 means running into those who just sold earlier, which is uncomfortable to hold. I'd rather see it rise back to 2325 first, then pull back to observe; even if it's a few bucks more expensive, at least I won't be waiting to break even right after buying.
If I really try, I'll only put in a small amount. If it drops below 2305 again, I won't stick around; I don't want to risk principal again at 2296. If it can bounce back to 2335, I'll probably take some profit first and then see about the remaining at 2344. The most tempting thing right now is the phrase "whales are about to turn bullish," which always makes me feel like a big green candle is coming next. But after waiting with a long position for a long time, what might come first is 2300 again.