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#三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓
On October 29, Samsung will release its full Q3 earnings report. This profit increase of nearly 8 times holds the market code for the entire AI storage sector for the next two months:
This profit surge is not just an ordinary cyclical rebound; it is entirely driven by AI demand directly boosting performance: HBM4 shipments tripled quarter-on-quarter, DRAM and NAND chip prices have risen for four consecutive quarters, and Samsung's quarterly operating profit surpassed 100 trillion Korean won for the first time, pushing the entire storage industry's prosperity to a historic high.
But there is also a key signal that is easy to overlook: since the end of August, analysts have already lowered profit expectations by nearly 8%. The pace of storage chip price increases has begun to slow, and with Samsung and SK Hynix's combined 55 trillion won stock buyback just completed, the short-term buying momentum in the Korean semiconductor market has experienced a gap.
The upcoming earnings night will focus on two key points: first, whether the revenue share of HBM4 business exceeds market expectations; second, whether the storage price hike guidance for Q4 has shifted. These two figures will directly determine whether the AI storage sector's current rally continues as a main upward wave or peaks and falls in the short term. #Strategy Earnings Preview: BTC Book Gains Rebound Sharply
Strategy will release its Q3 earnings report on October 29. The digital asset book gains reached $21 billion, ending four consecutive quarters of losses, with analysts expecting an EPS of $17.98. On the surface, it looks like a turnaround.
But this money was not "earned," it was "calculated." The new FASB rule requires BTC holdings to be accounted for at fair value in profit and loss. Bitcoin rose 43% in Q3, causing the reported profits to surge; in Q2, when BTC fell, the same company recorded a net loss of $8.32 billion. The income statement swings wildly with the BTC closing price at quarter-end, while operationally there was almost no change—Q2 revenue was only $122 million.
More telling details lie in the holding actions. In Q3, the company only increased its BTC holdings by 334 coins, while spending $193 million to repurchase STRC preferred shares, with the buyback authorization raised to $3 billion. The preferred shares have an annual dividend of about 12%. Stopping "unlimited accumulation" and shifting to buybacks to reduce leverage essentially means using real cash to repair the capital structure rather than continuing to expand exposure.
A word from old Mo: The $21 billion on the earnings report is the effect; stopping accumulation is the cause. What the market should really watch is not how much the EPS jumps, but whether the mNAV discount can narrow and whether preferred share buybacks can continue. When a company known for "never selling" starts calculating dividend accounts, its narrative is quietly shifting.
$ETH $ZEC $BTC The number of non-empty Bitcoin addresses decreased by 30,000 over 10 days. According to Santiment data, on October 26, there were about 59.95 million non-empty addresses, a net decrease of 30,000 compared to October 16. This is not a crash, but a slow, painful exit.
What happened? Small holders are "frustrated and exiting" during a long sideways market, but addresses do not equal people; one person can control multiple wallets, so this only indirectly reflects retail behavior.
Why is this worth attention? Stablecoins are also "shrinking" during the same period—USDC's market cap evaporated by $4.69 billion in one month, but the funds are not exiting the market; rather, they are being intensely redistributed among different issuers. The disappearance of addresses and stablecoin migration point to the same thing: chips are changing hands, not funds being liquidated.
Which observation is currently more supported? It is more supported that "retail investors are disarming, but there is no evidence that institutions are absorbing, nor does it constitute a reversal signal." The ETF saw a single-day outflow of 2,123 BTC, but a net inflow of 3,344 BTC over 7 days; short-term disturbances are greater than trend reversals.
Next, focus on one thing: Are these 30,000 disappearing addresses surrendering, or are they "another pocket of the same person" merged into large wallets? BTC is stuck near 80,000, and the answer will soon emerge.
Do you think this is a bottom signal or a bull trap? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC Accumulated 10,452 $ETH
10,452 ETH, approximately $24.6 million, Bitmine's weekly buying record continues. Total holdings surged to 6,051,900 ETH, accounting for 4.95% of ETH circulation, with the "5% alchemy" nearly complete at 99%. But the cost of this "faith" is glaring: an average cost of about $3,331, and at a market price around $2,360, the unrealized loss reaches $6.1 billion, a drop of 30.3%.
Tom Lee's response is very "Lee style": $ETH has retraced 13% from its peak, while US semiconductor stocks fell 20% in the same period, so the crypto pullback is "relatively shallower," which is exactly evidence that the bull market is still ongoing. He even boldly stated that in the next cycle, ETH conservatively estimated at 25x, targets $62,000. Believe it or not, but he is buying with real money.
However, the truly alarming signal is hidden in the cash flow: in the same week, Bitmine repurchased stock spending about $45.9 million, nearly twice the amount spent on increasing ETH holdings, and the weekly coin purchase volume slid from 15,112 to 10,452, the lowest since mid-August. The 5% hard cap is imminent, with only about 55,000 ETH remaining to reach it. When the "largest buyer's" buying engine is about to shut down, ETH loses not only a bullish symbol but also a solid marginal buy-side. Faith remains, but the direction of the bullets is already changing chambers. $BTC $ZEC
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 【Market is poor, but it doesn't stop Sun from making money】
A suspected address related to Sun Yuchen has moved out 4.65 trillion $PEPE, worth about 20.32 million USD. Since October 17, the total amount transferred out has reached 48.76 million USD, holding about 11.8 trillion tokens, with an unrealized profit of 2.085 million USD.
The $PEPE contract's 24-hour trading volume is about 374 million USD, spot about 67 million USD, and open interest contracts about 289 million USD. Contract trading is about 5.6 times the spot, showing clear speculative activity, but this does not yet prove bulls are dominant. Previously, from October 19 to 22, after net outflows from exchanges, 2.11 trillion PEPE flowed back, increasing potential selling pressure.
In the short term, the key is whether the $0.0000042–$0.0000043 level can hold. On the upside, first watch $0.0000046, then the previous high at $0.0000051. Large holders adding positions provide some room for imagination but are not enough to reverse the retracement structure. Holding support accompanied by increased spot trading volume is the only chance for a renewed rally; if support fails and contract open interest remains high, be cautious of a bull stampede. Chasing the rally now risks buying into a party others are ready to cash out from.The 7-day average funding rate dropped to -1.8%, the lowest since 2023. Long positions no longer pay fees, shorts start collecting money.
What happened? Bitcoin's funding rate flipped from positive to negative, with the overall market average rate turning negative. However, mainstream platforms like Binance, OKX, and Bybit are still struggling around the zero line; the negative value is dragged down by extreme readings from a few platforms.
Why is this worth attention? VanEck dug up historical data: since 2020, during periods of negative funding rates, BTC's 30-day average return was +11.5%, with a hit rate of 77%. But the crack this time is that the retail long-short ratio has dropped to 0.4861, with massive liquidations, while the large traders' long-short ratio is 0.77, indicating they are flat or watching, with shorts dominating. The funding rate turning negative is true, but long positions have not been completely cleared.
Which observation is currently more supported? It favors "leveraged longs are being forcibly deleveraged" rather than simply "negative funding rate = free money signal." ETF weekly inflows just turned positive at 301 million, but the cumulative outflow in October is still 314 million, and the spot side hasn't caught up.
Next thing to watch: whether weekly ETF inflows can continuously cover the monthly outflow gap, and whether the retail long-short ratio of 0.4861 will wash out the last stubborn batch of longs.
Is the negative funding rate a "historic buying opportunity" or "the prelude to the final drop"? Feel free to discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH Anthropic’s filing puts an unusual tension in view: H1 revenue of $16.3B grew roughly 14x year on year, while potential long-term compute spending may reach $750B. The reported $80.7B net loss is largely noncash, but the $693M operating loss still matters. A Nasdaq debut would test whether growth can convert fast enough to carry that capital burden.
#AnthropicIPOFiled For today's set of leverage data, I only focus on one point:
Long leverage has clearly accumulated.
In the past month, the overall long-short leverage ratio has risen, especially for BTC, ETH, and SOL, with the amount of borrowed coins for long positions significantly exceeding that for short positions.
$BTC: Long borrowed amount 1356.11 BTC, short borrowed amount 75.21 BTC
$ETH: Long borrowed amount 16,600 ETH, short borrowed amount 772.03 ETH
$SOL: Long borrowed amount 108,100 SOL, short borrowed amount 4241.84 SOL
This indicates that market sentiment is concentrating in the same direction.
However, I would not directly take this as a bullish signal.
The more concentrated the leverage, the easier it is for the market to experience short-term liquidations, especially near news events and key levels.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BZ Persian Gulf crude oil exports have recovered to 90% of pre-war levels, with Saudi exports even stronger, yet Brent stubbornly fluctuates around $110.
The key is: it can be shipped out, but it's too expensive to ship. Rerouted shipping lanes, ship-to-ship transfers, plus costly war insurance have pushed Middle East to Asia sea freight rates to more than twenty times normal levels, directly raising refinery landed costs.
Combined with the continuous drawdown of U.S. crude inventories, below the five-year average, the thin inventory makes the market especially sensitive to any stir in the strait. Oil prices have always carried a geopolitical risk premium, with funds speculating on changes in the Middle East situation after the midterm elections.
High oil prices continue to support inflation, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy, keeping liquidity tight. This suppresses high-beta risk assets like Bitcoin. The so-called "digital gold" behaves more like a tech asset highly sensitive to funding costs in the short term, easily pressured when liquidity tightens.
Trading cannot just look at supply numbers; freight, inventories, and geopolitical news are the true hidden mainlines of this market cycle.
#MiddleEastCrudeTransportRecovery WhyOilPricesRemainHigh
$BZ $CL $BTC 如果账户只剩661美元，那么现在最该盯的其实不是K线，而是板块强弱给出的阶段信号。你最近是不是也有那种被来回洗到没脾气的感觉？ 我这两天看盘就有这种疲惫感，BTC在8万附近反复拉锯，ETH跟着上下扫，ZEC偶尔冒个头又安静。但比价格更值得读的是板块之间的温差：主流币撑着不肯深跌，部分山寨却连反弹都缺乏量能，这种结构不像启动，更像分歧阶段——有人在试探，有人还在借反弹出货。空单利润被反复收回确实很折磨，可这恰恰说明短线节奏被高频洗盘主导，方向还没被市场投票出来。 偏多的路径是：8万被反复守住，FOMC前情绪回暖，资金从防守型仓位试探回补，主流先稳、山寨后跟；偏空的风险是：支撑被磨薄后一次假突破下去，杠杆多头被清，板块强弱进一步拉开。原文里那句"80k是不是准备去120k"我不会急着接，因为预期如果太早被计价，反而容易变成派发窗口。 结论：现在更像分歧期而非启动期，先看板块强弱确认，再谈方向。FOMC前后节奏可能更快。 你更倾向哪种剧本，守住后回补还是假突破洗一轮？ 免责声明：以上为个人市场观察，不构成任何投资建议。$BTC $ETH $ZEC #FOMC #加密市场#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ SanDisk’s impressive growth cannot be attributed solely to rising AI-driven storage demand. Even with strong demand, customer ordering patterns and contract structures play a crucial role in determining how sustainable the business really is. The company previously announced five new business model agreements in April and has since signed another five. Of these, three involve new customers, while the other two expand existing partnerships. One important distinction: five additional agreements doRepeated support at the lower edge, 79,000~82,000 grinding — 45% (benchmark): The decline from the low has narrowed to the $100 level, with consecutive small bodies, reduced volume, and a sharp drop in liquidation volume, all indicating "support is still present." Execute the 1st and 2nd levels, do not chase highs, reduce one level when rebounding near 81,700.
Breaking below 79,000, probing 77,600~76,100 — 35%: The basis is the four consecutive lower highs, 50-day moving average resistance, and the current price already below the two cost lines of ETF/vault (once the cost line is broken, it becomes supply rather than support). Only execute the 3rd level and must meet the "quick recovery" condition.
Recovering 81,700 and attacking 83,000 — 20%: Requires overall risk asset warming. At this time, the $85,000~87,500 range above is a dense trapped position (Glassnode), the first target is only 83,000, do not expect a direct return to 85,000. #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ The real moment of truth for a barbecue stall isn't when there's a long queue at the door, but when the owner uses the calculator after closing. Sweating profusely just means someone is spending money; only after settling the accounts do you know if there's any money left. Even if the neighboring owner comes over for a photo, it won't help you pay the rent.
The same logic applies to RWA projects. It's not hard to list assets, but three things are difficult: who really pays, who manages the risk, and whether there is any income at the end.
I'm willing to take a closer look at ZIG Finance because it places something reconcilable between the cash register and the token. ZIG Markets builds, distributes, and services real financing products, earns service fees, and then uses part of the income to buy $ZIG on the open market.
The official disclosure shows they have bought four times, totaling 5,369,300 tokens. Note this is buying, not equivalent burning—don't confuse the two concepts.
Zamanat aims for a private credit fund of up to $100 million, with ZIG Markets acting as the distribution agent. The dish is prepared, but someone still has to be willing to pay to eat it; the target number of tables doesn't equal being fully seated.
Going forward, there are two things to watch: whether the income can be sustained and whether the money spent on buying tokens will keep increasing. The lunchtime rush lasts half an hour, but running a store for ten years is a completely different matter.80,000, 2300, 100 Three Defensive Lines in Crisis: On the Eve of the Federal Reserve Decision, the Crypto Market Collectively "Hedges"
At 3:30 PM, the crypto market is awash in green, signaling a retreat. Bitcoin tests the 80,000 USD boundary, Ethereum falls below 2320 USD, and SOL clings to the 100 USD defense line. Funds retreat to safer havens, with price fluctuations reflecting macro uncertainty.
$BTC: The battle to defend 80,000. Currently at 80,060 USD, down slightly by 0.67%, once dipping to 79,800. Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows of 770 million USD over two consecutive days, needing to reclaim 82,500 USD to stabilize sentiment. The core factor is the Federal Reserve decision, which will determine capital inflows or withdrawals.
$ETH: Weakness follows. At 2319 USD, down 1.01%, weaker than BTC. Ethereum ETFs have net outflows of 221 million USD over a week, with RWA shrinking. The 2300 support level is critical; breaking it points to 2200. Hawkish expectations suppress high-valuation assets.
$SOL: The 100 USD long-short line. At 100.61 USD, down 0.95%, tightly holding the threshold. The 95-100 range is the last demand zone; losing it opens the downside. Weekly inflows of 453 million USD, yet selling first amid macro risks. The fate of 100 USD decides correction or consolidation.
Macro expectations override fundamentals. The three major thresholds are under pressure due to pre-Federal Reserve risk aversion. AI stock pullbacks weaken preference, with crypto hit first. The Fed's wording is key: hawkishness may push BTC to test 78,000, dovishness may trigger a rebound. Caution respects the macro rhythm.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ After finishing up my current tasks, I quickly checked the overall market data, and the first numbers I saw were quite surreal 📦
Exchange BTC net inflow is 6,534 coins, with a total amount stacking up to 2,505,000 coins.
Moving coins to exchanges usually isn't a sign of holding with confidence; I interpret this as potential selling pressure on the way.
Interestingly, the market hasn't crashed directly.
Daily-level positions: BTC +1.26%, ETH +1.26%, SOL +1.05%, ZEC surged +5.54%.
Long-term funds are still adding positions, but prices are weakening; BTC fell below 80,000, fluctuating around 79,939.
A typical conflicted market: long-term funds haven't fled, but short-term funds have already started to withdraw.
Looking at hourly positions: BTC shrank 0.17%, ETH shrank 0.28%, ZEC shrank 0.40%, only SOL remained flat with a slight increase of 0.03%.
Chips moved to exchanges but haven't concentrated into a sell-off yet; short-term positions are shrinking first, and no one is willing to reveal their bottom cards at this point.
My thinking is very clear ⚖️
① Firmly no shorting below 80,000. Daily positions are still increasing; shorting means betting against long-term funds;
② Also no bottom-fishing or going long at this level. Hourly positions keep shrinking; entering now means absorbing potential selling pressure that hasn't been released yet;
③ Just wait for resonance signals: BTC stabilizes above 80,000 + hourly positions simultaneously turn bullish. Both conditions are necessary; if not met, continue to stay out and observe.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $ZECTom was still shouting on Monday that the bull market has already started,
but BitMine only bought 10,452 $ETH last week, worth $24.5 million, at an average price of $2,344;
however, it spent about $46 million to buy back its own shares.
Just 58,000 $ETH short of the small goal of holding 5% of the total $ETH supply,
but in the end, this hesitation actually slowed things down a bit.
But it's still okay, giving the E-Guardians 5 more weeks to mentally prepare?🤪On Friday, about $12 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire.
I checked the table: approximately 152,000 contracts, accounting for over 30% of the total open interest in the market. The largest cluster is at the 95,000 call strike, which is far from the current price. The pain point is roughly at 79,000 — in other words, many contracts are already far from being in the money.
Currently, BTC is around 79,800, just slightly above the pain point. In between, there is the Fed decision on Wednesday, meaning we first hear from Powell, then settle two days later.
On days like this, prices tend to move quietly. It’s not that no one is active; both sides are waiting for a number.
If I underestimate volatility: if the decision night breaks below 79,000, the options side will get chaotic. Conversely, if the price is pinned between 79,000 and 82,000 until Friday, it looks more like the typical squeeze before expiration.
After expiration, we’ll have more opportunities.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #Meta launches $35 billion financing to support AI infrastructure
The leader has something to say
Meta has launched a $35 billion securities financing, with a potential additional $6 billion later, totaling $95 billion. Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom even plan to subscribe up to $5 billion. All the money is being poured into AI data centers and computing power.
But look at the fundamentals. Q3 revenue increased by 26%, but free cash flow turned negative, and the full-year capital expenditure guidance is as high as 135 billion to 145 billion. Financing at this scale will inevitably dilute existing shareholders' equity.
I believe this marks the AI giant falling into a "capital abyss." Even Meta, a money-printing machine, has to rely on large-scale issuance and convertible bonds to build infrastructure, dragging chip suppliers to subscribe together. On the surface, this is deep binding, but in reality, it is internal cyclical financing and risk-sharing within the industry chain. The comments section has two completely different interpretations. On the optimistic side, the giants are backing it, and the AI arms race continues; on the pessimistic side, even the landlord's family has no surplus, and the money-burning model is unsustainable.
On the market, META rose slightly by 0.01%, xMETA fell slightly by 0.04%, with extremely cautious capital.
This is indirectly bearish for crypto. Giants are desperately extracting funds for infrastructure, draining market liquidity, with Bitcoin lacking incremental growth, so the short term depends on macro conditions.
There was a waterfall drop last night; now let's see if the 80,000 level can hold. If it doesn't hold, expect a deeper correction, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Do not chase the rise or kill the fall; set stop losses properly on orders.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Test conclusion first: At the same moment, the BTC price from two free sources can differ by 174 USD.
Process: First check CoinGecko's figure at about 80,178 USD, then Finnhub's current price at 80,004 USD, the two numbers differ by about 0.2%. It's not that either is wrong, but the snapshot time and methodology differ.
Reusable approach: In future posts when writing prices, uniformly write "about 80,000–80,200 USD (morning of October 27, CoinGecko/Finnhub)" instead of a precise number down to the unit.
When you write research posts, do you usually write a single point price or a range? This is not investment advice.
$BTC🚨 Japanese capital is flowing back, potentially becoming a new source of pressure for the global bond market!
Japanese investors have net sold overseas long-term bonds for 5 consecutive weeks, with a cumulative scale reportedly reaching ¥3.43 trillion.
The key factor behind this is the rise in Japanese government bond yields, increasing the attractiveness of domestic assets.
If this trend continues, markets like the US may face pressure from weakened overseas buying and rising government bond yields, which could then impact the stock market, mortgage rates, and corporate financing costs.
However, capital repatriation does not necessarily mean a global debt crisis will inevitably erupt; the actual allocation changes by Japanese investors will need to be observed.
As global liquidity begins to shift, $BTC also deserves attention, but it may not necessarily remain unscathed amid risk shocks.[Bought another 10,452 $ETH, Tom Lee calls for $10,000]
Tom Lee's BitMine bought another 10,452 ETH last week, about $24.29 million, bringing total holdings to 6,051,900 ETH, approximately 4.95% of ETH's circulating supply, valued at about $14.3 billion. Large holders continue to accumulate, which indeed provides demand support for ETH.
Tom Lee's $10,000 target is for the next 12 months, not an immediate price. For ETH to rise from about $2,356 to $10,000, it needs to increase more than 4 times. BitMine buying around ten thousand ETH weekly is clearly not enough. In the past week, ETH dropped about 3.34%, BTC dropped about 2.39%; during the same period, the US spot ETH ETF saw net outflows of about $225 million, and institutional buying has not fully emerged.
There are real money bets on ETH's long-term story, which is clearly stronger than BTC this round. If the ETH/BTC ratio stops falling and rebounds, and ETF capital flow turns positive, it will look more like funds are starting to recognize this logic; otherwise, treat $10,000 as a target price first, not as navigation guidance. #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ Brent at $110-120 is Iran's strategic comfort zone,
and it is also the most fragile equilibrium point in the current long-short structure. Downward movement requires seeing "actions" rather than "words" of conflict de-escalation, while upward movement requires a confirmed physical supply loss.
Before either occurs, headlines about transportation resuming cannot change the underlying pricing logic of oil prices.一.美元体系2.0是“四位一体”的组合拳 美元本身：当前全球贸易、外汇储备的主导地位还在，美债市场的深度是它的底盘。 石油及重要能源：米国通过军事等手段，不断强化在全球能源市场的控制力，能源贸易的美元结算权是传统霸权的基础。 AI芯片半导体：米国在高端芯片、基础模型上领先，但我们追赶速度很快，未来2-3年是关键竞争窗口。 加密货币与稳定币：这是数字时代的新变量，明年1月米国《Genius Act》正式落地后，会加速推进，稳定币将和美元、美债深度绑定，成为美元在数字世界的延伸。 #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 二. 我们的应对逻辑很清晰：先守安全，再找机会 现在大陆是金融大国，但还不是金融强国，所以第一优先级是守住金融安全底线。 香港的定位是“离岸试验田”：它本身有离岸市场的基础，又能和大陆做金融风险隔离，相当于给我们留了一个“防火墙”。 跟得上：如果稳定币、代币化市场未来真的成了气候，我们通过香港也能拿到话语权和机会。 退得下：如果发展不及预期，风险也不会传导到大陆本土，不会造成大的伤害。 $BTC 三. 时间窗口的判断 今年米国在这四个要素上的推进速度已经在加快，因为它觉得自#中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？
The resumption of transportation is a "flow narrative," but oil prices are priced based on a "cost narrative" and a "risk narrative."
Iran replaces blockade with threats, passing costs onto freight and insurance; physical damage to refineries shifts shortages from crude oil to refined products; low inventories eliminate the buffer for price drops.
The crowded long positions mean that amplifiers for short-term volatility are already in place. This week, the US stock market will face several key events that could significantly influence market trends, with all eyes on the Federal Reserve's policy signals.
At 2:00 AM on Thursday, the October FOMC interest rate decision will be announced, followed by a press conference with Powell at 2:30 AM. The market widely expects the benchmark interest rate to remain unchanged, with the main focus on Powell's tone. If he signals dovish indications such as continued inflation decline and the possibility of future rate cuts, growth sectors like Nasdaq and storage-related stocks will likely attract capital; conversely, if his language is hawkish, suggesting inflation rebound risks and a delayed timeline for rate cuts, high-valuation stocks may face corrections and pressure.
At 8:30 PM, GDP and core PCE inflation data will also be released. GDP data reflects economic health; if it significantly exceeds expectations, the market will view the economy as resilient and further reduce short-term rate cut expectations.
Core PCE is a key inflation indicator closely monitored by the Fed. If this data rises again, market hopes for rate cuts will quickly cool, potentially causing a pullback in US tech stocks; if core PCE falls further by 0.2% compared to the previous value, rate cut expectations will reemerge, providing upward momentum for growth sectors.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ From October 6 to 12, decentralized exchange trading volume dropped by 30% to $6.35 billion, but from September 30 to October 12, the total value locked (TVL) of drfi rose to $1.058 billion. The lending protocol Morpho holds $486.8 million in outstanding loans there, so lending has now become an important use case, not just trading After BTC's short-term rebound, will it continue to pull back?📉
BTC is currently still fluctuating around $80,000. My view is: the weekly trend is generally weak, but a short-term rebound is not ruled out; the key is whether the resistance above can be effectively broken.
From the 4-hour candlestick chart, short-term buying has warmed up, and the price has a chance to test around $81,500 again. If the rebound strength is sufficient, further exploration around $83,500 is possible.
However, the trend reversal cannot be confirmed yet. The focus next is whether the price can effectively hold above $81,500, which will be an important signal to judge if the rebound can continue.
Regarding contracts, open interest has recently increased, and the funding rate remains positive. Compared to directly chasing longs, I prefer to first observe the rebound strength and then assess the selling pressure near resistance levels.
If the price rises and open interest increases simultaneously, attention should be paid to the volatility risk brought by new leverage; if the price weakens while open interest continues to rise, beware of further accumulation of downward pressure.
Additionally, ETF capital flows, Federal Reserve interest rate policies, and policy expectations brought by the U.S. midterm elections may all affect market sentiment. But news is only a reference; ultimately, it depends on whether capital flows and price trends validate each other.
Overall idea: weekly trend is weak, short-term focus on rebound. Watch $81,500 above first, further resistance at $83,500; below, pay close attention to around $79,300—if it breaks down effectively, the market needs to be reassessed.
What do you think, can this rebound effectively hold above $81,500?📊[Multiple Exchanges' TVL "Plunges" 30-40% on the Same Day: Most Likely a Statistical Event, Not a Bank Run]
Today's hottest news in the on-chain data community: DefiLlama shows a sharp downward revision of TVL (Total Value Locked) across several major exchanges within 24 hours—OKX dropped from about 30.4 billion to 18.1 billion (-40.5%), Bitget from about 6.9 billion to 4.2 billion (-38.4%), Gate from about 7.5 billion to 5.7 billion (-23.8%), Europe's Bitvavo -39.2%, and smaller exchanges like VALR, BitKan, Ourbit also fell synchronously by 24%-44%.
If you only screenshot one chart and post it, the headline easily becomes "Exchanges Bleed Collectively." But first, consider three facts: First, synchronicity—six exchanges unrelated and under different jurisdictions all dropped by similar margins on the same day, which is almost impossible with real capital flows; genuine large-scale outflows usually happen staggered and with varying degrees. Second, mirror anomalies—on the same leaderboard, Gate US surged inversely by +237.3%, perfectly mirroring Gate's main site decline, a typical sign of wallet assets being reclassified between related entities. Third, zero accompanying evidence—a real bank run would come with official announcements, on-chain withdrawal spikes, stablecoin discounts, and contagion among peers; none of these four appeared today, and mainstream media coverage is zero.
Our judgment: this is a data-level statistical calibration (wallet ownership reclassification), not a liquidity event. But this does not mean "nothing needs to be done"—keep a verification checklist: wait for explanations from DefiLlama or related exchanges; review the data after 7 days to see if it stabilizes; independently verify with on-chain net inflows. For content creators, the value of today's topic lies not in the news itself but in demonstrating a discipline: a single-day TVL anomaly should not be reported as news immediately; first ask, "Did the funds move, or did the measuring stick change?" "AI Data Verification · Issue 2" First, let's clarify a widely circulated claim this week: "US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of $300 million last week, institutional funds are back." This statement is only half correct. My verification process is as follows: 1. Prompt: "Summarize the daily fund flows of US spot BTC/ETH ETFs last week using only the numbers from the Farside table, without inferring reasons for fund inflows or outflows; write weekly and monthly totals separately." 2. Cross-check each item with the original source (Farside Investors table, verified by Cointelegraph report on 2026-10-26; the single-day data for October 26 was not yet published when the post was made, the latest complete data is for the trading week ending October 23): Monday +526.7 million, Tuesday +23.2 million, Wednesday +524.8 million, Thursday -635.6 million, Friday -137.9 million, weekly total +301.2 million. 3. Found two contradictions: BlackRock IBIT had a net inflow of 565.7 million for the week, exceeding the total for all categories — excluding IBIT, the other funds combined had a net outflow; the entire month of October still had a net outflow of about $314 million. ETH was even weaker, with a net outflow for the fourth consecutive week, last week -220.7 million. One mistake AI made: the initial draft wrote "weekly net inflow" as "turned positive in October." After verification, corrected to: weekly$BNB 'S SLOW BLEED AFTER THE $810 SPIKE TELLS A STORY
BNB tagged $810.10, then sold off hard to $705.80. Now it's stuck near $738.51, printing small, indecisive candles.
That's the 30D at -5.18% while 90D still shows +29.11%.
I'd rather watch this range than force a trade.
Is this consolidation or just a pause? Is it truly full of potential or just a flash in the pan? Although robinhood CEO Tenev stated that this chain is a company priority, the data shows a different picture[Pump.fun Integrates X Layer, New Developments for OKB]
Pump.fun now supports X Layer under OKX, allowing users to use the same USDC balance to discover, deposit, and trade tokens on X Layer without manually cross-chain or switching wallets. This is not just an additional entry point; X Layer also gains access to a mature trading platform's user reach. For $OKB, this is a solid ecological bonus.
X Layer already has a foundation: as of October 26, DeFi TVL is about $164 million, with DEX trading volume around $218 million in the past 7 days, a weekly increase of 19.5%. However, the stablecoin scale is about $1.495 billion, with USDG accounting for over 88%, indicating a relatively concentrated capital structure.
The key logic for OKB lies here: it is the native Gas token of X Layer, and growth in on-chain activity could drive actual demand. However, integration with Pump.fun does not mean these trading volumes have been realized, nor does it guarantee an increase in OKB price.
Next, it depends on whether new users, DEX trading volume, and on-chain fees can continue to rise. If the data keeps up, X Layer can be considered truly developed; if there is only cooperation news without changes in on-chain activity, then for OKB it is more of a narrative boost for now, not a fundamental reversal.$BTC perpetual annualized fee rate rose to about 11.0% today, open interest returned to $7.65B, and the price briefly broke above $80k before returning to yesterday's median level. Spot CVD is flat + fee rate rising + OI rising, it's clear this rebound is of poor quality, all built up by leverage. Unless spot follows, it usually can't hold for more than a day or two before falling again. Let's see if spot CVD turns positive in the next couple of days. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ "US stocks rose, gold also rose, only Bitcoin didn't move"
What’s worth noting today is not Bitcoin’s price, but that it didn’t follow.
Overnight, the three major US stock indexes all closed higher: Nasdaq +0.82%, S&P +0.70%, Dow +0.28%. Spot gold rose 0.53% back to 4,017, after briefly dipping below 3,980 overnight and then rebounding. Anthropic filed an S-1, directly targeting this round of sentiment at tech stocks.
One rose, another also rose, the third didn’t move.
Bitcoin’s high today was 80,845, low 79,369, with a full range of less than a thousand points. It rose 0.4% in 24 hours, but the weekly is down 3.65%, monthly down 4.27%, and year-to-date down 8.65%. It has been sideways around 80,000 for the second consecutive day, while risk appetite is recovering elsewhere.
This is neither suitable to be explained by "safe-haven failure" nor by "risk appetite rebound." A more accurate description is: funds are returning to the market but bypassing it.
The cost of bypassing is heavier than it seems. Within 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $174 million, 72,305 people were forcibly liquidated, with long positions accounting for $106 million or 60.7%. Despite a range of less than a thousand points, 70,000 people were liquidated, which is a pinpoint forced liquidation during narrow volatility, not caused by market trends. Binance accounted for 47% of the liquidation share, with the largest single directional liquidation on ETH/USDT at $3.48 million.
Ethereum is weaker. It dropped to 2,304 today, effectively breaking below the technical support at 2,330, down 14.4% in 30 days. Also a thousand-point level sideways, its monthly decline is more than three times that of Bitcoin.
On the macro side, the FOMC meets today, with results due early tomorrow, and the probability of no change is very high; but September inflation annual rate returned to 3.7%, oil prices hit a five-month high, and the probability of another rate hike before year-end remains 75%. The 10-year US Treasury yield is 4.99%. This is a combination of "passing this hurdle but not the next."
So my judgment is: today’s sideways movement is not a balance, but a gap between the previous relief and the early pricing of the next hurdle. The price doesn’t move because both bulls and bears are still willing to wait; waiting continuously is actually a cost.
Key levels remain unchanged: up 80,700–81,200, down 79,000–79,500, after breaking 77,500–77,700.
Discussion: Since "it doesn’t follow when rising," will it follow when falling?
This is the question I most want others to answer today.
My inclination is: it will follow the fall, and follow faster. Because when funds bypass it, it’s an active choice; but if US stocks and gold both turn down and liquidity tightens together, then it’s no longer a choice but a forced sell—and forced selling never has the option to "bypass."
Poll: The most abnormal thing today is—A. US stocks rise but BTC doesn’t; B. 70,000 people were harvested in a thousand-point range; C. 75% probability of a rate hike by year-end; D. None are abnormal, this is the norm this month.
I choose B. It completely dismantles the mildness of the word "sideways."
Not investment advice, risk at your own discretion. #MarketAnalysis $BTC $ETH#Strategy暂停增持，Strive与BitMine扩大储备
"MicroStrategy Pauses Additional Purchases, New Bitcoin Buyers Take Over"
MicroStrategy slows down its buying pace, with daily transaction volume shrinking from $537 million to $106 million. The spot price also retraced from $84,000 down to $79,700.
No panic observed in the market. Asset management firm Strive and mining company BitMine are expanding their Bitcoin reserves below the $80,000 mark, taking over part of the spot liquidity.
The market is closely watching MicroStrategy's November interest payment. As long as the cash cost of new chips stays below the $80,000 threshold, new buyers will continue to build positions in batches until next week's settlement day. $BTC The market is all red, but ENA has risen by more than ten points in the past two days.
Noticed: On October 23, Ethena's USD stablecoin USDe was launched on OKX's X Layer and OKX Wallet, with Aave v3 being the first integration.
ENA rose for two consecutive days on Sunday and Monday, each day up about 8%, reaching around 0.21.
At the same time, Arthur Hayes' related address transferred out about 28 million ENA over two days, but the buying pressure still held.
However, DefiLlama data shows that USDe supply is still shrinking, about $4.58 billion, with only about 4.7 million on X Layer.
My view: This wave looks more like short covering plus resistant funds, not a real improvement in business.
ENA buybacks will start only when USDe rises to 7.5 billion, still nearly 3 billion short.
Before Wednesday's FOMC, watch and don't chase.
Invalidation conditions: If USDe supply turns back up and ENA volume breaks above 0.23, it means the narrative is starting to play out, and I will be wrong.
If it falls back below 0.20, the gains of the past two days will most likely be given back.
What do you think about this wave of ENA—is it a new starting point or just a short covering breath?
$ENA
#ENA #Ethena #USDe This morning, while waiting in line by the roadside to buy pancakes, a breaking news alert popped up on my phone saying Elon Musk was live again, directly stating: crypto traders who don’t buy DOGE are "small fish," and he emphasized his continued support for Dogecoin at its long-term support level.
I stared at the screen, holding ten yuan in my hand, and paused. The group chat instantly exploded; some shouted, "Elon Musk has spoken, take off immediately," while others cursed, "All talk, no use if you don’t buy."
Honestly, hearing the term "small fish" made me a bit suspicious. When a big shot like him opens his mouth, we retail investors get excited, but it often ends in a mess. But when I switched back to the market, $DOGE was at 0.07753, down slightly by 0.33%, with the lowest point holding firm at 0.07599. The market didn’t jump around because of his shoutout; instead, it stubbornly hovered around 0.077.
I suddenly found it quite interesting. Before, whenever he casually tweeted, Dogecoin could instantly jump dozens of points. Now? The price only slightly fluctuates around the long-term support level. What does this mean? It means Dogecoin’s foundation now can’t be easily shaken by anyone’s words. Whether Elon Musk considers us "big fish" or not doesn’t matter; the chips underneath are solidly stacked. I stuffed the pancake in my mouth and continue holding $DOGE.🔍The computing power standard hasn't been unified yet, but the derivatives case is already on the table? I'll start with a question mark. Arthur Hayes proposed in "The Trifecta" to build a computing power market for AI agents through the Flop Network, using FLOP tokens for payment, and then developing forwards, futures, and perpetual contracts based on spot prices. This is a proposal, not a finalized achievement.
An interesting detail here: the payment medium is not the pricing benchmark. I judge that this design's significance for both computing power supply and demand sides is more worth studying than just stimulating token sentiment. Using a unified token for payment doesn't necessarily smooth out service differences among different hardware; but if spot trading can reliably fulfill contracts, then derivatives might help both sides manage cost volatility.
This is my speculation: it aims to compete not only for the payment gateway but also for the pricing power of computing power risk. I will continue to watch what computing power the contracts correspond to and who bears the delivery responsibility, not treating the proposal as a finished product.A single leveraged session is being read as a market verdict, and the numbers tell a more interesting story than the excitement suggests. $DOGE moved from an average entry of 0.0757199 to 0.0779203, a gain of roughly 2.9% on spot. Yet the position's return on investment is quoted at +58.12%, with a margin ratio of 1099%. That gap is the whole story: the direction was right, but the magnitude of the win came from leverage, not from an extraordinary breakout. $SOL shows the same mechanics with a sBitcoin and gold have both bottomed out together this year, something that has never happened before.
By late October, Bitcoin had dropped 7.3% for the year, gold fell 7.5%, ranking last two among 21 major asset classes. During the same period, the US large-cap stocks rose about 12%, commodities increased by more than 50%, the gap is obvious at a glance.
Bitcoin is now hovering around 80,000. This week, with the Fed's interest rate decision and major corporate earnings reports coming together, the market is waiting for direction. Don't fully load your positions before the rate decision; saving some bullets is more important than guessing the direction.Brothers
In 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $151 million, with 68,160 people being taken out. The largest single liquidation was a BTC short position on Hyperliquid, liquidated at 80,700 for $1.85 million. Binance accounted for 47% of the liquidations, where the most people got harvested.
Focus on the structural changes: in the 24-hour dimension, longs liquidated $79.85 million, shorts liquidated $70.67 million, roughly half and half, 53% to 47%, a typical churning market.
But looking shorter term is interesting— in the last 4 hours, shorts liquidated $8.57 million, more than longs’ $7.34 million; in the last 12 hours, shorts liquidated $36.21 million, also more than longs’ $29.09 million. This shows the recent rebound first swept out the shorts.
As a result, in the last 1 hour, longs liquidated $2.85 million again, shorts only $1.37 million. See? The market just finished sweeping the shorts and then turned to sweep the longs downward.
This is a typical up-and-down pin action washout—liquidating shorts when prices rise, liquidating longs when prices fall, eating fees back and forth. 68,000 people got liquidated, both longs and shorts, showing that no matter your direction, heavy positions mean death.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC First, a bit of cold water: I lean bearish, but seeing a large short position doesn't automatically make me nod in agreement. Core Trader 57 just opened a short on ZEC with 7x leverage, with a nominal position of about $50,400. This trade is a bet on a decline, not proof of a decline; my judgment is that the direction can be discussed, but right now it can't be taken as evidence of bearishness.
I'm stuck on two points. One is that monitoring only shows the opening action, not the full account picture. This could be a one-sided bet or a hedge; you can't infer how bearish it is just from this address's action. Two, judging direction and enduring the path are two different things: roughly calculating with 7x leverage, if the price first rises 10% against the position, the loss would consume about 70% of the initial margin, excluding fees and margin adjustments. This isn't an exact liquidation line, but it shows that if the market first squeezes upward, the shorts who need to add margin or are forced to reduce positions will suffer.
Of course, this trader might be right. The condition for me to change my view is if the price weakens afterward and the rebound fails to recover near the reference price of this opening; that convinces me more than just looking at the position size. Until then, I'd rather admit I haven't seen clearly. Around this ZEC short, are you bullish or bearish? Please give one reason: do you trust the short opening action more, or do you want to wait for price confirmation? #Meta启动350亿美元融资，支持AI基建
Meta's earnings report has ended, but the AI story is far from over.
The company has raised its capital expenditure forecast for 2026 to $135 billion to $145 billion and is building multiple gigawatt-scale superclusters. The future spending commitment has reached the scale of $800 billion. Meanwhile, free cash flow turned negative in Q3 for the first time in over a decade. The advertising business itself still generates considerable operating cash flow, but it is no longer sufficient to cover both the high infrastructure investment and maintain the original financial flexibility, so external financing is necessary.
NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom have expressed subscription intentions totaling up to $5 billion, which seems more like binding the upstream and downstream of the industry chain rather than pure financial investment. Chip suppliers are willing to hold customer stock, which to some extent locks in the certainty of future orders and also indirectly indicates that the capital intensity of AI infrastructure has become so high that multiple parties need to share the risk. From a competitive perspective, Meta's approach is reasonable. Unlike some pure AI labs that rely entirely on external computing power leasing, it tries to control large-scale infrastructure itself while connecting the monetization capability on the product side.
Overall, this is not a question of "whether there is money," but "after spending this money, can sustainable technological and product barriers be formed?" At a stage where capital expenditure has entered the hundreds of billions level and cash flow is under pressure, the market will increasingly focus on marginal returns rather than just scale narratives.Brothers, this liquidation map contains a lot of information, let me break it down for you.
The current price is 80188. Look at the densest liquidation zones on the chart:
Below, from 79185 to 79869, the orange bars (100x leverage) are densely packed. This indicates a large number of people opened high-leverage long positions around 79500, with stop losses set in this area. If the price drops another 300 dollars to 79800, this group will be liquidated in a chain reaction—the more it falls, the more liquidations happen, and the more liquidations, the further it falls.
Above, from 80952 to 81294, there is also a cluster of orange bars, and from 81500 to 82320, yellow bars (50x leverage). These represent stop losses for long positions above; a rebound to this area will trigger short positions to be stopped out.
Looking at the two cumulative lines: the green line (short position liquidation volume) climbs up to 260 million above, while the red line (long position liquidation volume) below has dropped close to zero. What does this mean? Long positions below 80,000 have mostly been liquidated, but new long positions have piled up again near 79,000.
Before Thursday's FOMC, avoid heavy positions around 80,000; those liquidation orders below are the fuel for the market makers.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC IRYS is the most dramatic gainer on today's list — OKEx price at 0.03212, +12.90%, but the 24h volatility is extreme: low at 0.02580, high surged to 0.04021, now it has pulled back from the high.
What's driving this? Don't mistake it for healthy volume growth — this coin just had a big drama last week: on 10/23, a single-day short squeeze surged 580%, then crashed 74% within hours. Essentially, it was a short squeeze liquidation + heavy market control (top 100 addresses hold 99% of the supply), liquidity is so thin that a pull-up sends it flying, a dump crashes it; today's +13% is a dead-cat bounce, not a trend start.
My judgment: 12.6 million 24h volume looks big, but compared to its tiny circulating supply, it's just inflated — this market is a fierce battle of funds, chasing the rally is like betting against market makers, with a thin order book that's easy to pump and dump. I watch but don't touch.
Watch the signals: whether 0.04 (24h high) can be reclaimed; failure means the rebound is over; breaking below 0.0258 (24h low) means a second bottom test; this coin's volatility is measured by the hour, so position management is far more important than directional calls.
#IRYS #ShortSqueeze #HighRisk
Not investment advice, DYORHalf-year loss of $80.7 billion but still planning to go public?
Anthropic publicly filed for IPO on 10/26, Nasdaq ticker ANT.
Foreign media reports the listing could happen as early as the week of 11/16,
raising up to $100 billion,
potentially becoming the largest IPO in history.
Revenue growth is astonishing: $16.3 billion in the first half of the year, and $16.8 billion in Q3 alone. But it also lost $80.7 billion in the first half, of which about $72 billion is an accounting paper loss,
not actual cash spent.
The prospectus itself states risks: computing power bills can easily reach hundreds of billions of dollars, revenue growth "may not be sustainable," no plans to pay dividends, and the 7 founders hold 50.1% voting rights, so stock buyers cannot influence company decisions.
A reminder: before and after popular IPOs, there will definitely be fake "pre-sale shares" being sold; block them immediately if you see any.【Over 8,000 ETH rushed into exchanges, ancient whales are starting to move】
Two new transfers totaling about 5,069 $ETH, worth $11.69 million; plus nearly 3,000 ETH transferred by ICO whales in the past 24 hours, involving about 8,069 ETH and $18.6 million. Ancient whales also moved over $100 million in stablecoins to exchanges, market makers, and OTC institutions, but the purpose remains unclear.
This represents new potential selling pressure, but don't equate transfers into exchanges directly with selling. Especially since ICO whales' cost basis is only $0.31, their paper gains are huge, so selling intent may exist; however, the transfers alone cannot prove that all these ETH have been sold. On the other hand, on October 23, Santiment recorded a net outflow of about 169,800 ETH from exchanges in a single day, indicating that market capital flow is not just about selling.
My judgment is: short-term supply pressure is increasing, but it’s not yet at the level to conclude that whales are collectively dumping. Next, watch two things: whether these ETH continue to flow out from exchanges to actual sales, and whether trading volume expands when ETH price falls. If deposits keep increasing and the price breaks key support levels, then selling pressure is truly realized; otherwise, this is more of a warning than a result at present.$BTC short-term holders' unrealized profits are declining; will the $76,000 cost line be breached?
Currently, the average cost for BTC short-term holders with holding periods under 6 months is about $76,000. If the price continues to fall, they may turn from profit to loss.
I judge that the likelihood of the short-term $76,000 cost line being effectively broken is low; BTC is more likely to fluctuate around $80,000.
My basis:
1. The current price is about $79.8k, still about 5% above $76k, with multiple supports above including ETF/Treasury cost ($81–81.5k) and True Market Mean (about $77.5–78k). Breaking below would require continuous volume increase.
2. Although unrealized profits have narrowed to 5.9%, the overall profitable state has not been broken since mid-August. History shows that after a brief pullback, prices often recover rather than immediately turning into overall unrealized losses.
3. Continuous new buying pushing up costs indicates demand exists; the Fed is very likely to maintain rates this week, and the macro environment lacks strong downward catalysts, so the market tends to digest and then move sideways.
4. Around $80k has been tested multiple times forming short-term equilibrium; after volatility compression, it is easier to first fluctuate rather than break unilaterally.
Trading advice: sell high and buy low near $80,000.
Lightly buy on a pullback to $79.5k, reduce positions on a rebound to $81–81.5k; if it breaks above $81.5k, target $82k; if it falls below $79k, wait and see.
Keep position control within 30%, wait for clear signals after this week's Fed and PCE announcements before increasing exposure. #ThisWeekOctoberFOMCRateDecision $ETH broke below 2300 just yesterday, but quietly climbed back today. Do you think this counts as stabilization?
It's currently at 2314, up less than 1% in 24 hours, with a very narrow range from 2293 to 2338 — just a 45-dollar swing in a day. The trading volume is about 30% higher than yesterday, but the price hasn't moved much. Honestly, with this kind of volume increase without a price rise, I can't really see a clear direction.
It's still down 3% for the week and nearly 14% for the month, so I won't change my view just because it reclaimed 2300 today. The high today is 2338, and above that, yesterday's moving averages at 2367 and 2480 are still pressing down. On the news front, BitMine bought over 10,000 ETH, but reports on the same day say it prefers to buy back its own stock rather than continue buying coins, and the next upgrade has been delayed due to security issues.
Today, I'm focusing on one thing: whether it can close above 2300. If it holds, I'll consider it bottoming out; if not, we'll look at the 2100 area next. #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？