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下周BTC只有一件事最重要：79,220能不能守住。其他所有数据，都要围绕这个位置来解读。 先说新闻。用今天的数据作为基准：价格侧，BTC报80,933.5美元，24小时 +1.42%、近一周 -0.30%，20日区间79,220.1到86,693.7——79,220是新的20日低点。资金侧，ETF连续第八天净流入（+2,920万）、5日+2.023亿、10日+2.994亿。情绪侧，恐惧贪婪指数51到54。宏观侧，美元101.81（+0.20%）、黄金4,007.9（-1.29%）、标普500 7,623.68（-0.52%）。 再看资金影响。79,220之所以关键，是因为它是资金与价格的分界线：守住，说明ETF的买盘足以吸收抛压，底部区域成立；跌破，说明宏观压力超过了资金承接，调整会继续。两种情况下，ETF的资金数据都是最重要的验证指标。 对BTC的含义：把下周的判断简化为两个情景——情景A：79,220守住 + ETF持续流入 = 底部区域，可以向86,694修复；情景B：79,220跌破 + ETF转为流出 = 调整延续，下一个支撑看77,000。现在的情况更接近情景A的早期。 富兰克林邓普顿近期在XRP Ledger上增发了约1.5亿美元的代币化货币市场基金份额（sgBENJI），所有新增份额均转入同一个钱包。该钱包目前持有近1.93亿份sgBENJI，按交易记录中每股约1.039美元计算，总值约2亿美元，较此前约4800万份大幅增加。 集中持仓引发关注，但凸显机构需求 新增份额集中于单一钱包值得注意。这可能反映了一位大型投资者或托管机构管理的综合账户，但也凸显了机构对代币化现金管理产品日益增长的需求。富兰克林邓普顿的sgBENJI基金是其Benji平台的一部分，提供基于美国国债的收益型链上敞口。XRP Ledger的低费用和快速结算使其成为此类大额转移的有吸引力的场所。 此举是资产管理公司代币化传统基金以利用区块链流动性和24/7结算的更广泛趋势的一部分。例如，贝莱德在以太坊上的BUIDL基金也出现了大量资金流入。富兰克林邓普顿选择XRP Ledger，既分散了生态系统，也突显了该网络的企业级定位。 对RWA代币化的影响 1.5亿美元的增发表明，代币化货币市场基金正从概念验证迈向有意义的规模。这也带来了运营层面的考量：单一钱包的大额持仓可能带来集中度风险，Nowadays, everyone should be a global landlord, especially a landlord in Tokyo, Japan. If you choose those one-bedroom essential housing units, you can get a 4% annual return, and that's the return after deducting all kinds of expenses.
However, the sad thing is, now you only need to buy U.S. Treasury bonds to achieve this skill, and you can even buy the 10-year ones 😂
The magic of the capital market lies hereCalculate it: a nominal position of $99,800 at 20x leverage corresponds to a margin of about $4,991, which is not equal to the actual invested amount. Core Trader 02 just opened a long $META position; I consider this trade as using less principal to take on larger volatility, rather than "throwing down $100,000."
① Position size is 160.256 units, with a nominal value of $99,817.08. This is the exposure due to price fluctuations, not the wallet balance.
② With 20x leverage, roughly estimated by the reciprocal, a reverse price movement of about 5% approaches the liquidation threshold. The actual liquidation point is also affected by margin mode and maintenance margin, so this cannot be taken as an exact liquidation line.
③ Reference price is $622.8602. This is not a confirmed average transaction price, so I won’t use it directly to calculate position P&L.
My judgment is that the key to this trade lies in how much drawdown the margin can withstand, rather than how large the nominal amount is; next, I want to observe whether the position size and margin are adjusted synchronously.$CL crude oil looks bearish today, 98 is the next battleground
After this round of crude oil rally, I actually want to wait for a rebound to short, with the initial target at 98, and if broken, extend further down.
Previously, the oil price rise was mainly supported by news about the Middle East situation, strait transportation, and rising freight costs. But the more the news is hyped, the harder it is for the price to continue climbing, indicating that the sentiment premium has already been digested at a high level.
Now the market looks more like a repeated tug-of-war at a high level, with increasing pressure above. As long as the rebound can't surpass the previous high, the bulls are only making short-term resistance, not genuinely pushing for a breakthrough.
Moreover, demand is not as strong as imagined; high oil prices themselves suppress consumption, and inventory and macro data do not provide confidence for a sustained surge.
So my approach is to short in batches if the rebound fails to surpass the previous high; the initial target is 98, and if it breaks, look around 97. Quick in and out for the short term, stop loss once the key resistance level is broken, no stubborn fighting.
#中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ Technical level calibration (Sina re-quoted technical analysis, based on the 10/22 writing benchmark; still valid when compared with real-time levels): The S&P has retreated from the historical high of 7,830, with support levels at 7,620 (October low), 7,500 (September low), 7,340 (200-period EMA), 7,300 (July low), and resistance at 7,700 and 7,830; The Nasdaq 100 (futures-based) key levels are 29,240 (currently testing), 29,000, 28,745 (mid-September pre-launch low), 28,190, and 28,000 (around the 200-day moving average). The Nasdaq futures I recorded at 15:15 was 29,087.58—already below 29,240, with the next defense line at 29,000, and below that 28,745. This is the most critical structural information for tech stocks tonight. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $BTC family, BTC looks like it's stabilizing around 80,000, but the data doesn't lie: 64% of net long positions are built above 81,993. After the price breaks below this level, Bitcoin longs liquidate $85.9 million, while shorts only $9.16 million. Simply put, longs are cutting losses, shorts are cashing in.
QCP gives support below at 78,000 and resistance above at 86,000. $ETH ETF holders' cost zone is between 80,000 and 81,500. This means 80,000 is not a bottom but a psychological battlefield for holders—if it doesn't hold, the ETF crowd will start to waver.
The options market is also voting with its feet: the 1-day 25 Delta Skew hit 11.3%, showing a clear rise in downside hedging demand. Smart money is buying insurance; are you still betting on a rebound?
In short: before the FOMC, BTC long positions are just an ATM for shorts. Don't be the one getting taken out.$ETH
The Glamsterdam Hoodi testnet upgrade originally scheduled to activate today was canceled by the Ethereum Foundation, with no new date given. The reason is an EIP-8037; ChainSecurity found that its gas billing changes have compatibility and security issues with deployed contracts, involving 13 contracts. This matter is more important here than it looks from the market. If the testnet can't be stabilized, the mainnet schedule will only be delayed.
The market is actually quiet. ETH current price is 2331, 24h low 2293, only down half a percent, the perpetual fee rate is 0.006% lying flat, neither bulls nor bears are pushing hard. Tonight is the FOMC, followed by Microsoft and Meta earnings reports; the whole market's attention is there, and ETH's own bad news barely makes a splash.
Upgrades like this are usually noise; only when they really get stuck do they get priced in. Anyway, I'm not in a hurry to act, I'll wait for it to find its own direction.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 First, let's pour some cold water and not rush to take "ETH's next round could reach $62,000" as a market forecast. Tom Lee Tracker relayed that Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, when explaining why BitMine wants to maintain maximum Ethereum exposure, said that ETH has risen 50 to 200 times in previous crypto cycles; even with a more conservative estimate of 25 times, the price would be about $62,000. I see this more as an explanation of the holding logic, not a verified target price.
I tend to think the market easily overestimates this statement. One reason is that the historical multiples occurred in past cycles, and calling 25 times "more conservative" does not prove it can be replicated in the next round; changes in base, capital scale, and market environment may cause the multiple to fail. Another reason is that BitMine wants to maintain high exposure and naturally needs to clarify why it is optimistic about ETH. This reasoning stimulates sentiment, but if ordinary users only remember $62,000 and ignore the assumptions behind it, their judgment can easily go astray.
Of course, I don't take it directly as a bearish signal. If we later see Ethereum's actual usage demand continue to grow and capital willing to hold long-term, rather than just discussions driven by target prices, I will reassess this multiple projection. For now, I want to focus on whether the supporting logic can be fulfilled, rather than celebrating the price prematurely. Do you guys lean bullish or bearish on Tom Lee's $62,000 judgment this time? What are your reasons?Update on $PONS key figures:
Daily trading volume: $24M (-4% on the previous day)
Daily trading revenue: $35K
RH market share: N/A
$27K added to buyback and burn vault. 0.017% of TOTAL supply.
Over $200K ready to be deployed for buyback and burns. 0.125% of TOTAL supplyTerm Structure Radar
The first-level positive basis for $BTC corresponds to a very small scale. The near-month buy and far-month sell quote spread is +0.96%, with the first-level pairing scale about $8; based on a 10,000 scale, this level only covers about 0.08%. With such a small capacity, shocks will quickly erode the spread.
The first-level positive basis for $ETH corresponds to a very small scale. The near-month buy and far-month sell quote spread is +0.76%, with the first-level pairing scale about $991; based on a 10,000 scale, this level only covers about 10%. Capacity sets the upper limit.
For $SOL, the marked basis is positive, but the near-month buy and far-month sell first-level quotes are inverted. Near-month annualized is +8.44%, far-month annualized is +0.48%, with the near end more expensive; the marked near-far spread is +0.11%, but the near-month buy and far-month sell first-level quote spread is -1.12%. The marked and executable directions are opposite, so trading should not be based on the mark.Azure guidance at constant currency is about 44%–45%, with this quarter's capital expenditure expected to exceed approximately 50 billion. Closed at about 524.51 on Friday. For $MSFT, I won't yet consider the "growth versus spending" as a final answer.
This Wednesday after the US Eastern market close (early Thursday Beijing time), FY27Q1 results will be released.
The company revenue guidance is about 89.85–90.95 billion, Wall Street consensus roughly 90.6–90.7 billion, adjusted EPS about 4.71.
Azure's new growth guidance is about 44%–45% (last quarter restated about 42%); the CFO said in July that this quarter's capital expenditure is expected to exceed about 50 billion, which includes lease accounting, so don't assume it's all cash outflow.
Closed at 524.51 on Friday (about +0.66%, opened about 517.75/high about 525.77/low about 515.70), and closed about 521 on Thursday, down about 2.2%.
I believe Azure demand remains strong, and I think the market will first focus on "how much growth is gained from spending 50 billion," rather than assuming the AI returns are already fully priced in around 524.
Tonight at the US Eastern market open, watch for support around 516–525; if it holds, then look for a move back to about 526–533; if the daily close breaks below about 515.7, expect a move toward about 510/500.
Do you believe more that Azure can cover the spending, or that the spending will first hit the valuation?
$MSFT #微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？ Core Long-Short Logic
Dimension 📈 Potential Support 📉 Dominant Resistance
Macro The probability of the FOMC holding steady in October is about 90%, with no immediate risk of rate hikes in the short term. The probability of a rate hike in December is 80-90%; oil price at $111; risk of US-Iran conflict
Capital Market ETF weekly net inflow of $301 million; retail capital inflow provides short-term liquidity. Cumulative net outflow of $773.5 million in October; retail inflow may include pressure from selling to break even
Technical SMA near 365 has rebounded; low volatility convergence is usually followed by directional choice. Four consecutive daily declines, three consecutive weekly declines; moving averages in bearish alignment; rebound basis is invalid before 80,700 is recovered
Sentiment Fear index at 50, not extremely panicked. The forecast market believes the probability of falling to 87,500 by the end of the month is only 10% $BTC $ETH $ZEC #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ BTC at the 80,000 mark broke easily, hitting a low of 79,146 during the session, with four consecutive daily declines and three consecutive weekly declines, which looks quite scary. But what really makes me frown is not the price, but the liquidation structure — 728 million was liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, with longs accounting for 84%, and BTC itself bore over 234 million in long liquidations. To put it simply, this isn’t someone actively dumping; leverage is lifting itself out. The ETF side is also worrying, with a net outflow of 770 million in two days, mostly from BlackRock and Fidelity, as institutions shrank positions ahead of the FOMC. Ethereum followed the hit, hovering around 2,320, with October ETF outflows exceeding 1 billion, but there’s an interesting contrast on-chain: exchanges saw a single-day net outflow of 170,000 ETH, the largest in four months, while staking remains at historic highs. What’s being sold is what can be sold; what’s locked is not intended to be sold. My stance: I won’t short unless BTC breaks below 79,000; I won’t go long unless it recovers above 81,000. I’m watching closely before the FOMC decision; at this level, volatility can easily hit both sides. #BTC The Ethereum Foundation sold again, and they chose the busiest moment.
On-chain data shows that an address associated with the Foundation, 0x5CB...22059, sold 2,785 ETH through Cowswap two hours ago, which was worth 6.42 million USD at the transaction price. 2,785 ETH is not a small amount; it's a position large enough to create a significant dip in the order book.
What’s more noteworthy is the timing. This address had just topped up ETH on October 12, when the coin price was still 2,534 USD. Looking at today, it has dropped nearly 9%. The calls to buy haven’t stopped, but the sell orders moved first.
The Foundation’s usual explanation is normal treasury management, which is reasonable, but treasury management has one common trait: selling only when it can be sold. When the market pulls back, liquidity remains, and retail sentiment hasn’t collapsed, that’s the best window. If they really wanted to hold long-term, why not wait for a rebound?
For ordinary holders, there’s no need to over-interpret, but two things are worth remembering. First, large addresses always act faster than announcements; on-chain data doesn’t lie. Second, don’t use the fact that institutions don’t sell as a reason not to cut your losses.
Check the current price position yourself by opening the candlestick chart. The position is yours, and so must be your judgment. The Ethereum Foundation's associated address sold 2,785 ETH two hours ago, worth 6.42 million USD, via Cowswap.
This address had just topped up on October 12, when ETH was still at 2,534 USD, and it has dropped nearly 9% since then.
The timing was quite precise—selling when the market was pulling back and there were still buyers willing to take the coins. The treasury management explanation itself is reasonable, but the selling point never lies; announcements may be delayed, but the blockchain never is.$ETH capital flow: BTC has buyers, ETH is still a cash-out machine
BTC ETF sees net inflows, ETH ETF suffers net outflows for the fourth consecutive week. No need for lengthy explanations.
The problem with ETH is not that it’s "falling," but that no one is buying while it’s falling. BTC ETFs have futures and options as buffers, with longer leverage trigger chains; ETH exposure is concentrated in perpetual contracts, so when funds withdraw, marginal selling pressure directly breaks through the price level.
Therefore, the $2,300 line is not a technical level, but an emotional one. ETF outflows are not narrowing; whether it holds or not depends not on analysis but on whether there are real buyers with actual money stepping in.
Watch: ETH ETF single-day net flow this week. If outflows don’t shrink, don’t tell me it’s "oversold."#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
The main event is coming this week, everyone is waiting for the Fed's decision 😌.
The current mainstream market view is that the interest rate will most likely remain unchanged this time, holding steady and observing for a while, but this does not mean the hawkish stance is completely over. Previously, CPI and oil prices have shown some upward movement, and many officials are still concerned about whether inflation will be persistent; there is actually quite a bit of internal disagreement.
The key point is not whether to raise rates this time, but the tone of the post-meeting remarks, to see if they leave the door open for a rate hike in December. As long as the wording is somewhat hawkish, the dollar, gold, and the crypto market are all likely to experience volatile swings.
This kind of market environment loves to trigger stop-losses back and forth; if you’re not confident, it’s better to avoid heavy positions and wait for the outcome before deciding the direction—it will be much more comfortable that way.
$2Z #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
$SKHYNIX Macro Direction Setting, Narrative Heat: How Did I Respond to SK Hynix's "Three Peak Attempts"?
Today I saw the official Q&A question: "What conditions do you value most when choosing trading targets? And what signals do you use to judge that the market has weakened?" Combining with my current trading of $SKHYNIX, I share my practical logic.
1. Three Core Conditions for Choosing Targets:
1. Macro Direction Setting: When trading any target (even stock tokens), you must watch the overall market sentiment. Today, the Korean stock market opened low and rose high, giving me the macro basis to go long on the semiconductor leader.
2. Narrative Heat: Behind SK Hynix is the hard demand for AI and HBM, plus the expectation of the Q3 earnings report this Wednesday, the heat is very high with ample liquidity.
3. Technical Right-Side Resonance: This morning SK Hynix broke through the early session high with volume, I went long at 971.6 following the trend, never guessing the bottom on the left side.
2. Signals to Judge Market Weakness (or False Breakout):
The official guest said: "When positive expectations are close to being realized, altcoins that remain strong against the trend need to beware of a catch-down." This is very true! Specifically on the chart, I look at these three signals first to judge weakness:
1. Multiple Failed Attempts to Break Higher: Today SK Hynix tried three times to break the 990-995 integer resistance level, all failed, indicating heavy selling pressure above (previous high resistance).
2. Volume-Price Divergence: On the 15-minute chart, price is pushing the peak but volume (VOL) is clearly shrinking, and MACD shows a high-level death cross with red bars turning green, the most typical momentum exhaustion signal.
3. Time Cycle Conversion: Short-term break below EMA9 and EMA21, and break below the early session rising support platform.
3. My Practical Response (Control Your Hands):
In the afternoon session, SK Hynix quickly plunged, my long position went from a floating profit of 200U+ to a floating loss of 100U+.
At that moment, I was extremely anxious, the thought of "can't hold" surged wildly. But I chose to trust the pre-set stop loss at 955.8. Since profit doesn't require knowing what happens next, I closed the software and left the rest to probability.
Answering today's official follow-up question: When judging altcoins/high volatility assets weakening, what signals do you look at first?
My answer: Look at the "volume" and "K-line body" when it hits key resistance levels. Low volume pushing high + long upper shadow is likely a bull trap; high volume breaking support is the real weakness.
What do you think, before the earnings report lands, should we hold or exit during this "pin bar" shakeout market? Welcome to discuss in the comments!
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 To pour some cold water first, daring to use leverage does not mean you have a precise view. Core Trader 02 just opened a long META position with 20x leverage, with a nominal position of about $99,800. I am cautiously bearish on this trade and do not take a large long position as confirmation of direction.
I have two concerns: first, leverage amplifies profits and losses, not judgment. By simple estimation, a reverse fluctuation of about 5% could wipe out the initial margin, and actual liquidation is also affected by margin mode and other factors; second, a single wallet going long only shows willingness to bet, it does not prove that subsequent buying will follow. If the price moves against them, the most painful are those with high leverage who refuse to admit mistakes.
Of course, they might have caught the right direction. If the price continues to strengthen afterward and there is support after a pullback, I will withdraw my bearish view. But these are just my observation conditions. For now, I am more interested in how this position manages risk rather than rushing to admire the courage.BTC Investment Weekly Report | Issue 16 (Exclusive for Long-term Holding · Major Cycle Analysis) Statistics Period: 2026.10.20 — 2026.10.26 Current BTC Price: 80014 USDT 200-Week Moving Average: 65836 USDT, current price is about 21.5% above the 200-week moving average I. Core Summary This Week Currently, BTC is transitioning from the early bull market phase to the mid-bull market phase. The bullish major cycle foundation is solid and has not yet entered the top bubble zone. All core monitoring indicators have not reached the preset threshold for synchronized position reduction. The short term is a consolidation shakeout during the upward trend; such volatility is normal in a bull market and does not change the long-term holding strategy. Maintain a full base position at 100% without any position reduction or adjustment, continuously tracking indicators while waiting for the cycle to further evolve. II. Key Indicator Data This Week (Weekly Level · Major Cycle Standard, CBBI uses percentage scale) 1. CBBI: 56 (percentage scale, bubble observation threshold 90) 2. MVRV Z-Score: 0.92 (top resonance threshold ≥5) 3. RHODL Ratio: 1102 (top resonance threshold ≥10000) 4. 200-Week Moving Average: 65836 USDT III. Detailed Cycle Position Analysis From the four core major cycle indicators, the potential for indicator dulling caused by continuous institutional capital inflow has been included in the personal execution plan, but currently all indicators still have a large margin before triggering the top resonance line. CBBI 56 is only at#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
My US stock pre-market diary (October 26, 2026): What is the money afraid of, and what is it betting on?
Brothers, this bowl of noodles before the market opens feels uneasy. The index futures look red, but the funds underneath are running faster than rabbits. Don’t just stare at the index; let’s break down where the money is actually moving.
The big market is fake; sector rotation is real. The Nasdaq futures seem stable on the surface, but semiconductors and AI high-flyers are clearly getting hit.
Funds are doing two things:
First, withdrawing from the overcrowded AI computing power chain at high levels. NBIS and CRWV crashed more than 3% pre-market. Musk’s warning made leveraged funds run faster than anyone;
Second, the money hasn’t left the market, it just moved to another place to wait.
Micron, SK Hynix, and these memory chip stocks are actually seeing funds coming in. The logic is straightforward: HBM demand is solid, and after falling so much, it’s a bargain. The pre-market gains in QQQ are all propped up by heavyweights. If you want to see the direction of the attack, the money is betting on pre-earnings risk aversion plus the independent logic of memory.
The most eye-catching are NU and META. NU plunged 23% pre-market; the election results in Brazil exploded, and foreign capital sold off first as a salute.
Don’t catch a falling knife with these stocks; until political pricing is over, any rebound is an escape opportunity. META is even trickier, raising $35 billion in stock financing for AI while stubbornly holding around 657 pre-market.
What is the market betting on? Betting that Zuckerberg’s money burn can produce the next growth curve, but I don’t believe there’s value at this level #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
When judging altcoins turning weak, which type of signal do you look at first?
Based on previous experiences participating in $RAVE and $LAB, these kinds of meme coins,
For coins like these, weakening signals actually require observing chip distribution, coin release volume, and major KOL dynamics, all of which can become signals of coin weakness, but these coins are less influenced by traditional macro factors.
For example, rave dropped continuously after ZachXBT's post, but sometimes it doesn't always work, like during the lab period when ZachXBT's post had little impact on Lab.
For coins like $HYPE, you need to pay attention to capital inflow, macro factors, and major KOL statements. For instance, at the very beginning, Hayes posted about selling hype, after which hype roughly dropped from over $70 to over $50.
Altcoins require more attention to chip distribution, coin unlocking, major KOL dynamics, and sentiment. Be cautious of risks! 存储财报夜前，我盯着风险偏好那根弦有没有松 76%的押注，到底是在买增长，还是在买一个不能失手的剧本？ 盘前刷到闪迪29日美股盘后出财报，第一反应不是兴奋，是有点替它紧张。预测图上约76%的资金押它超预期，这个比例本身就很故事感，像全班都认定你会考第一，考到第二都算输。 表面逻辑确实顺：AI数据中心需求还在扩，NAND价格也在抬，公司自己给的收入指引是103亿到108亿美元。但我想提醒的是，市场此刻交易的不是上季度卖了多少，而是下季度指引还能不能继续炸。预期被推到这么高，等于底牌提前亮了，容错空间被压得很薄。 前阵子科技财报季不缺"赢了数字、输了股价"的案例，西部数据就是现成的镜子：业绩和指引都不差，价格照样往下走。所以这次真正的分水岭，不是超不超预期，而是指引里有没有露出利润率见顶、NAND涨价放缓的缝隙。一旦有，那76%的仓位会从买盘瞬间变成卖盘，踩踏不需要理由。 放到我们这边看，半导体是全球科技股的风险温度计，这份报表会直接传导到风险偏好。偏多路径是：数字漂亮，且盘后能扛住抛压往上走，科技情绪稳住，BTC跟着松一口气，ETH和山寨的beta才有条件接棒。偏空路径更值得盯：如果业绩Just now, a big brother in the group asked which platform coin is good to buy now? I sincerely said, frankly, there are three platform coins now: one burns money, one collects rent, and one is being shorted by insiders.
$BNB is the only one going against the trend, up +2.2% in seven days. On October 19, the 37th burn destroyed $1.197 billion, reducing supply to 131.5 million. Q3 revenue was $54.2 million, up 54%. Real money and real supply reduction, no stories. 750 is the half-year top; only after passing it can it be called a breakthrough.
$OKB rose 1.26% today, the only one in the red across the board. But don’t rush, in this market, a little rise is still possible; most of it is driven by macro asset trends, not the exchange’s valuation. If the market doesn’t rise, it won’t move.
$HYPE is the most ironic. In 30 days, it collected over $84 million in fees, accounting for 67.6% of 38 perpetual DEXs, with 97% buyback. But the RWA share dropped from 80% in July to 26%, and surprisingly, 86% of the top 100 traders on the leaderboard are shorting it!
Therefore, I calmly told the big brother that BNB is the only one with active buying pressure; deflation is a hard logic.
OKB has no pricing power; if the market doesn’t move, it can’t move either. But once the market moves, it will definitely be the most valuable one!
HYPE is a good company but a bad stock; it’s highly profitable, but its share is being eaten away by other platforms, so just let Anan and OK pick whichever they want and that’s it.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC struggled to hold near support over the weekend. This week features dense inflation data and tech earnings reports, making short-term market moves difficult.
I'm watching $80,133: this level has been tested 6 times, held 4 times, broken 2 times, and around $6.18 million in liquidations occurred near here in the past 46 hours.
The price is falling, but 24-hour open interest has increased by 3.9%, indicating shorts are adding positions. If it breaks below here, I'm bearish and won't try to catch the bottom.
Do you think this level can hold through the week? #OKXTraderVoices SK海力士$SKHYNIX will release its Q3 earnings report on October 28, with the financial figures looking like a "money printing machine": revenue approaching 98 trillion KRW, operating profit expected at 77 trillion KRW, soaring several times year-on-year, likely hitting a new historical high again. But the paradox is, despite such explosive performance, its stock price has dropped 52% from the June peak.
The reason is simple: the good news has already been fully priced in by the market. Now Wall Street doesn't care about "how much was earned," only two things matter. First, where exactly is the peak of this storage cycle. Institutions generally believe 2026 will be the peak of this price increase cycle, followed by a high-level plateau period, where pure high profits can no longer drive the stock price. Second, and most critically—the battle over HBM4 is not going well. Because NVIDIA's $NVDA next-generation Rubin chip schedule has been delayed, plus the time needed for mass production tuning, SK海力士's Q3 HBM4 shipments did not meet initial targets, and some capacity was forced to be shifted to regular memory production. On the other hand, Samsung's HBM4 yield has already reached about 80%, and the market share gap between the two has narrowed from 37 percentage points at the start of the year to 17 points, with some institutions even predicting Samsung's shipments will surpass next year. The once absolute leader's throne is starting to shake.
$BTC is much worse off. Dragged down by AI trading concerns and risk-off sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, $BTC today directly fell below $80,000, hovering at the lower edge of a nearly one-month consolidation range. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ This week can be called a super macro week. Here's a brief list of major events for quick reference:
1. Tuesday is the Israeli election. The importance of Israel and the US as conjugate partners needs no further explanation. After this week's election and next week's US midterms, many things can proceed once the political situation stabilizes. The short-term importance of this event is top-tier, and the long-term importance is solid.
2. Before 8 AM Wednesday, SK Hynix earnings report. Importance is top-tier.
3. At 2 AM Thursday, the Federal Reserve decision, followed by Powell's speech at 2:30 AM. It's almost certain there will be no rate hike in October, but the probability of a rate hike in December remains a key point of contention. If Powell's speech is dovish and lowers expectations for a December hike, the market will likely rebound accordingly. The importance of this event is solid.
4. At 4 AM Thursday, Microsoft and Google earnings reports and conference calls, importance is top-tier. At 9 AM, Samsung earnings report, importance is high. At 8:30 PM, Q3 GDP preliminary and September PCE data, importance is also solid.
5. At 4 AM Friday, Amazon and SanDisk earnings reports and conference calls, importance is top-tier. Intel, Strategy, and Coinbase earnings reports and conference calls, importance is high.
6. The Bank of Japan is also very likely not to raise rates on Friday. Importance is high.
Other NPC and less significant news will not be mentioned here.
From the major events listed above, it's easy to see that Thursday is the most likely turning point.
According to the most optimistic expectations, as long as Powell gives a tone like "we'll look at the data again," the narrative for a November rebound could start early.$BTC is moving sideways around 80,313, changing only -0.10% in 24 hours with a 2.0% amplitude. The market basically did not react to this interest rate hike news. Pakistan's rate decision affects the local currency and domestic prices, not touching dollar liquidity nor impacting crypto capital flows. The data aligns: the three-phase funding rate ranges between 0.0017% and 0.0080%, with leveraged longs not adding positions; DVOL is 38.1, and the options market is not paying for large volatility; 24-hour long liquidations are $9.43 million, shorts $9.24 million, nearly balanced. Options open interest put/call ratio is 0.83, and trading put/call ratio is 0.60, indicating more bullish positions. I judge $BTC will continue to consolidate between 79,321.8 and 80,920, and this news won't push a breakout. Bearish reversal condition: break below 79,321.8 with a clear rise in DVOL, indicating other forces entering, requiring a reassessment. Bullish reversal condition: volume surge above 80,920 while funding rates remain positive. $ONDO
Repeated fluctuations around 0.4, how does the underlying product yield transfer to the token?
In this morning's spot snapshot, ONDO's 24-hour price change was -1.80%, ranging from 0.3972 to 0.4127 USDT.
The snapshot is slightly above 0.4, but the integer part is not a guarantee of value. Assets under management, product income, and token holder equity are different links; without connection, the price will still be driven by risk appetite.
If business growth creates a clear holding demand, it can improve revaluation judgment; if only the scale increases but equity remains unchanged, the drawdown should not be directly interpreted as mispricing.#Franklin Templeton Applies for Dividend-to-Bitcoin ETF
【Follow Old Chives, Wealth Is Yours】Franklin Templeton launches a new move: buy US stocks, and dividends automatically convert to Bitcoin! Is traditional finance putting BTC into more people's investment portfolios?
Previously, to allocate Bitcoin, you either bought BTC directly or bought spot Bitcoin ETFs. Now, Wall Street asset management giant Franklin Templeton tries a new approach: dividends earned from holding US stocks are no longer taken as cash but automatically converted into Bitcoin-related investments.
1. What’s the difference between these two ETFs?
FBEQ: Mainly allocates to large-cap US stocks, with a strategy similar to a large-cap stock portfolio combined with Bitcoin allocation.
FIBT: Focuses on innovative companies, with a heavier emphasis on tech stocks.
Regarding fees, the latest documents list annual operating expenses of 0.09% and 0.19%, respectively. However, the exact trading start dates for both funds have not been officially confirmed; registration and listing do not mean trading has begun.
2. What does this mean for BTC?
The key is not how large the initial 5% allocation is, but that it attempts to establish a mechanism for continuously gaining BTC exposure. Traditional investors don’t have to actively buy coins with cash each time; they can indirectly access Bitcoin-related assets by holding the fund. If similar products gradually become popular, BTC has the chance to enter more traditional securities portfolios. $BTC $ETH $SOL Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$EWZ large sell cost decreased, buy cost increased. Simulated buy/sell slippage for 100k scale changed from 1.71%/2.08% to 1.93%/1.79%. Asymmetric change, only discussing execution, not direction.
$ORDER large sell cost increased, small sell cost almost unchanged. Simulated sell slippage for 100k scale rose from 0.70% to 0.88%. 10k sell still about 0.18%. Depth is deteriorating, same order size is more expensive.
$DOOD after enlarging orders, slippage on both buy and sell sides increased significantly. Simulated 10k scale buy/sell slippage 0.13%/0.15%, 100k is 0.71%/0.90%. Depth is discontinuous at scale, the 100k level is the real execution constraint. #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ In short: Relying solely on the old stock and options market's pulse-like growth is hard to sustain; what can truly support its subsequent growth are new curves like event contracts (prediction markets) + Gold subscriptions + overseas expansion, while traditional crypto trading is currently a drag.
1. What is supporting growth now
In previous quarters, the rise in trading revenue mainly came from two parts:
1. The old base: US retail options and individual stock trading. When the market is lively, retail investors rush in to trade options, and volume explodes; once the US stock market fluctuates sideways and the profit effect disappears, retail activity drops sharply. This part is a typical "market-dependent" segment with no autonomous growth ability.
2. The new dark horse: event contracts (prediction markets), which exploded from last year to this year. Q2 single-quarter revenue increased tenfold year-over-year, already filling the gap left by the decline in crypto business, becoming the most elastic part of the trading segment and the new story the market values most.
3. Crypto business: Compared to the previous year's heat cooling down, crypto trading revenue has been continuously declining in recent quarters. Bitcoin market volatility no longer drives this segment as before, and US regulation remains uncertain and looming.Binance listed Predict in the pre-market contracts this afternoon, which is worth analyzing.
Based on the pre-market price and a total supply of 1 billion tokens, the FDV has reached around 1.5 billion USD, with each token roughly priced at 1.5U. This valuation isn't cheap, but it's not outrageous either.
What really catches attention is the points system. The project team allocated a total points pool of about 440 million points. Breaking it down by three common airdrop ratios:
Releasing 5% means each point is worth about 0.17U.
Releasing 10% means each point is worth about 0.34U.
Releasing 15% means each point is worth about 0.51U.
In other words, if you have accumulated 2,000 points, that corresponds to 340U to 1,020U, a threefold difference depending entirely on the final official release ratio.
Some compare it to Aster, whose post-listing performance indeed left room for market imagination. But the two projects have different token distributions and unlocking schedules, and their current liquidity levels are not comparable, so directly applying multiples can be risky.
My judgment is that the pre-market price has already anchored the valuation. Whether it can hold depends on two things: whether it gets listed on spot markets and how much selling pressure there is on the TGE day. The pre-market price has already dropped somewhat, indicating many rushed to get in early.
I personally bought a small position and am waiting for the official airdrop query to open. Despite strong Google Cloud growth in Q2, external bearish concerns remain around heavy AI CapEx, pressure on margins, and uncertainty over Gemini's ability to generate meaningful revenue. Meanwhile, any slowdown in Search could challenge Google's core business.
The key question: Can AI investments deliver enough returns, or will rising costs weigh on profitability? Could $GOOGL disappoint investors even if revenue beats expectations?#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Consensus operating profit is about 77 trillion KRW, with a profit margin close to 78%, very likely setting a new record again. The core support comes from AI server demand + general storage price increases, with HBM (including HBM4) contributions rising.
But don't treat HBM4 as a "certain super engine." There is industry feedback that Q3 shipments are below some expectations (Rubin progress, tuning), and Samsung is also chasing market share. The real focus is not just "whether it exceeds expectations," but the statements in the conference call about HBM4 ramp-up pace, Q4/2027 guidance, and capacity allocation.
The performance numbers are very likely to look good, but valuation and subsequent expectations will determine the stock price reaction. Personally, I pay more attention to the quality of the guidance rather than the single quarter numbers themselves. 🔥Bitcoin has always dropped after past midterm elections. But one thing most people overlook is that in the past, Bitcoin only completed its cycle bottom after the midterm elections. So the decline is just a correlation, not a causation.
This time, Bitcoin has already completed its cycle bottom, so this round of decline may not repeat. Bitcoin is very likely to have bottomed out before this year's midterm elections, and those , and it may happen again.👀
#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings Robinhood Chain on-chain application weekly revenue falls below $3 million for the first time, hitting a new low
Since peaking at over $37.7 million in weekly revenue from late August to early September, Robinhood Chain app income has declined for 7 consecutive weeks
The latest weekly revenue is $2.81 million, down more than 90% from the peak, with the biggest declines mainly in Meme Launchpad and Meme terminal
Currently, Robinhood Chain apps still maintaining weekly revenue of $100,000 include Lighter, Pons, Arcus, Uniswap, GMGN, and fomo 🎪 Monday night, the status of three small coins before the interest rate decision
$WLD 0.467, the identity network token hasn't moved today 🌐
Worldcoin uses iris scanning to verify that you are a real person, not an AI bot. WLD is the ecosystem governance and incentive token. At the 0.467 level, the market is waiting for two things: first, whether World App users can continue to grow; second, how much "proving you are human" is worth in the AI era. There have always been controversies over biometric privacy, and regulatory attitudes remain unclear. Before the interest rate decision the day after tomorrow, these small coins without an interest rate story just drift with the overall market, with volatility greater than mainstream coins.
$TRUMP 1.665, the political meme is waiting for external events 🎭 No company, no product, fixed issuance in advance, price depends entirely on external celebrity news and hype. It rose about 0.6% today, with trading volume active for a meme coin. But the pattern for this kind of coin is obvious: when an event happens, the buy and sell orders suddenly thicken; once the news passes, volume immediately shrinks. When you see it rising, it's often already the latter stage, so don't chase.
$BOME 0.000621, meme points small bounce 📉 It turns meme citation relationships into on-chain points, adding one more layer of retention compared to pure air coins. It rose about 1.5% today, but trading volume is only a bit over three million USD, a very light market cap; a few tens of thousands of dollars can move it. At this level, a bounce will trigger some to borrow and reduce positions; without new stories, don't chase the highs.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC's correlation with the US tech stock sector remains evident. When US stocks pull back, Bitcoin often weakens in sync; when US stocks stabilize, it experiences a slight recovery. This correlation amplifies its volatility. Without new fundamental positive catalysts, its price action largely depends on external market sentiment, lacking independent upward momentum. $ETH $ZEC Hynix earnings countdown: two days left, will the US stock market rally tonight?
Today is 10.26, only two days remain until SK Hynix announces its Q3 earnings. Last week, AI tech stocks pulled back one after another, and the market started to worry about when the huge AI investments will finally pay off.
Tonight, US stock futures have already turned positive, and oil prices have also retreated after several days of decline. Funds might take this opportunity to push the market up.
Pre-market:
Nasdaq 100 futures: +0.25%
$MU 889.66, +1.38%
$SNDK 1,254.29, +1.32%
$SKHY 140.94, +2.86%
Hynix will release its earnings on October 28, with the market estimating operating profit around 76.96 trillion KRW. Shipments of HBM4 and storage price increases are key points, but market expectations are already high. Whether the results beat expectations depends on actual performance (after all, everyone knows AI lacks storage, so it depends on who can truly turn demand into profit).
Although I bet Hynix's earnings won't exceed expectations, objectively, the chance of beating expectations is high.
If MU and SNDK continue to strengthen, they could help restore sentiment in tech stocks.
But pre-market gains don't guarantee a continuous rise after the open; the market isn't that predictable.
Tonight is Monday and an important night to observe fund sentiment.
After several days of decline, those who need to deleverage have done so, and those looking to bottom-fish are waiting for opportunities. It's too early to conclude whether all the bad news is priced in; first, let's see if the Nasdaq can hold steady, then if Hynix's earnings can take over.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 📊 过去24小时，加密货币合约市场经历了一轮集中清算，清算总额约为5.42亿美元，超过11.5万名交易者受到影响。但真正值得关注的，不只是清算规模，而是多空双方的力量正在发生怎样的变化。 🔻 一、过去24小时，多头成为主要受害者 在总清算金额中，多头仓位清算约4.60亿美元，占比约85%。这意味着，此前押注价格上涨的交易者承受了更大的冲击。 📉 $BTC：清算金额达1.75亿美元，其中多头仓位占88.6%。 📉 $ETH：清算金额达1.57亿美元，其中多头仓位占84.4%。 📉 $SOL：清算金额约2391万美元。 📉 $ZEC：清算金额约1432万美元。 这些数据表明，市场中的杠杆多头遭遇了明显打击，尤其是那些过度依赖杠杆、缺乏风险缓冲空间的交易者。 🔄 二、真正值得警惕的变化，出现在最近几个小时 如果只看24小时数据，很容易得出多头仍然占据被动地位的结论。但最近几个小时的数据，已经出现了不同的信号。 ⏱️ 过去4小时，市场清算总额约1841万美元，其中空头仓位清算约1461万美元。 ⏱️ 过去1小时，清算总额约261万美元，其中空头仓位清算接近199万美元。 换句话说#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
HBM4 is very likely to boost Q3 profits, but "boosting profits" does not necessarily mean "stock price will definitely rise." The market already has high expectations for Q3, so the stock price reaction will depend more on: the ASP/gross margin after HBM4 volume ramp-up, Q4 guidance, and shareholder returns such as special dividends/buybacks.
I will focus on four key signals during the Q3 earnings call:
1. The proportion and ramp-up of HBM4 revenue: whether it truly shifts from "shipments" to "scale revenue";
2. Q4 guidance: if it confirms continued DRAM tightness and an improved mix of HBM4/1c DRAM, the profit baseline is more likely to be revised upward;
3. LTA and ASP elasticity: long-term contracts provide stable cash flow but may sacrifice spot price increase flexibility;
4. Shareholder returns: the market has rumored a possible special dividend of up to about 160 trillion KRW, but the company says it is still under review and not confirmed; the 400 trillion KRW buyback has been completed, and subsequent plans may be mutually constrained with Solidigm's funding arrangements.#France 10-Year Government Bond Yield Surpasses US Treasuries for the First Time Since 2013
The leader has something to say
On October 22, the yield on France's 10-year government bonds rose to 5.14%, hitting a new high since 2002 and surpassing US Treasuries of the same maturity for the first time since 2013. The spread between French and German bonds widened to 175 basis points, reaching a 15-year high. Moody's maintains an Aa3 rating but the outlook remains negative.
I believe this is not just a credit issue of a single country, but a signal of fiscal deficit repricing among core European countries. Some comments are spot on: the French bond yield surpassing US Treasuries stems from repricing of deficit and rating risks, and credit premiums will rise systemically. Although the rating hasn't been downgraded, the negative outlook means France's credit buffer space has been exhausted.
This is a warning for the global bond market. Rising financing costs for core European countries will squeeze risk asset valuations. However, US stocks and bonds were not directly impacted today, indicating that funds currently still treat this as a localized event.
On the market front, Bitcoin took a waterfall drop last night and is now fluctuating around 80,000.
Watch if the 80,000 level can hold. If it doesn't, expect a deeper pullback, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Do not chase the rise or sell in panic; set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC The US stock market has closed, but the stocks on-chain are still falling. This is the most authentic state of this track.
OKX xStocks quotes: xSNDK, which is SanDisk, at $1576.12, up 1.79%; xSPCX, which is SpaceX, at $150.87, up 0.63%; xCRCL, which is Circle, at $101.90, up 0.56%. The 24-hour trading volumes are 4.54M, 4.99M, and 5.35M respectively. This is the real popularity ceiling of on-chain stocks.
The leverage side is even hotter. Crypto.com stock perpetual fee annualized rates: $xSNDK +94.3%, $xSPCX +57.8%, $xCRCL +25.6%. Bulls are paying a high premium.
But another set of data conflicts: Hyperliquid reports SNDK at 1297.95, down 6.61%; CRCL at 82.38, down 4.89%; SPCX at 145.90, down 2.05%; SOXL down 12.25%. The price differences far exceed the normal range. This is not an arbitrage opportunity but a liquidity gap.
The falsifiable point is this: if xSNDK is still around 1300 after the US stock market opens on Monday, it means the on-chain pricing reflects an overnight semiconductor crash, not a USDT-side failure.Ethereum's price dropped 15% this month, and the leverage on the contracts side has first contracted.
The nominal open interest of ETH contracts on Binance decreased by nearly $1.3 billion in a month, now remaining around $5.7 billion. At the same time, the total ETH contract market size shrank to about $11.5 billion. Price dropped, market cap evaporated by $54 billion, and leverage retreated — these three events happened within the same period.
On October 25, ETH spot price was around $2,330.
This market movement can be broken down into three forces: price decline, liquidation, and active position reduction. The first two are passive, the third is active — holders with positions are unwilling to hold on and cut their positions first. These three forces combined made the market lighter.
But a lighter market doesn’t mean the bottom has been reached. The leverage retreat only cleared out the most vulnerable players. For the price to rise, it depends on whether anyone is willing to buy at the $2,300 level. Contract positions cut by 20% indicate that bulls lacked confidence over the past month, not that the downward trend is over.
The real focus should be on two numbers. One is whether open interest can rebound when the price stabilizes — that would mean new money is entering; the other is whether the next price dip triggers less liquidation than this round. If less, it means the vulnerable have been cleared; if still large, it means leverage has just shifted to a new group.
$2,300 is not a pretty level, but it’s a level where the chip distribution can be clearly seen.Binance ETH contracts cut positions by 20% in one month, with open interest nominally reduced by $1.3 billion, now at $5.7 billion, while the entire market is at $11.5 billion.
During the same period, ETH dropped 15%, wiping out $54 billion in market value, with spot price around $2,330 on October 25.
Price drop, liquidations, and active position reductions are happening simultaneously. The market is lighter, but lighter doesn't mean the bottom has been reached; it depends on whether new money comes in around 2300 to catch it. If no one steps in, it just means no one is holding, not that someone is buying.#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
To judge the weakening of altcoins, I first look at the relative strength signal of "falling with BTC but not rising with it." When BTC is sideways or slightly rising, altcoins not only fail to rise but instead break key support levels first; or when BTC pulls back slightly, altcoins experience a large bearish candlestick crash (i.e., the "BTC bloodsucking" effect appears). At the same time, observe whether BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) is rapidly rising; if so, it indicates funds are withdrawing from altcoins back to the mainstream, and at this point, one must decisively reduce positions or short.$NEAR has been quite volatile these past two days, but the volume has remained steady, with a 24h increase of about 2.7%.
From 11 PM last night to 1 AM this morning, the price jumped directly from 4.49 to 4.69, then gradually retraced. Interestingly, at 9 AM, 11 AM, and 3 PM during the day, the price was pushed down to 4.43–4.45 three times but was supported each time, with the lower shadows getting shorter, indicating buyers waiting below.
The current price is around 4.53, stuck in the middle, so I don’t want to open a position here. Above, 4.57 is the resistance level that was tested twice this afternoon but not broken, and further up, 4.66–4.69 is the high zone from early morning. The funding rate is around 0.008%, showing no overheating.
My own plan:
Direction: Buy on pullback
Entry: 4.45–4.47
Stop loss: 4.40 (if the bottom that held three times breaks, I’m out)
Target 1: 4.60
Target 2: 4.68
At Target 1, I’ll close half the position and move the stop loss to breakeven for the rest. If there’s no pullback, I won’t chase; if it breaks below 4.40 and doesn’t recover, I’ll wait to see around 4.25, near the spike from the day before yesterday.
For NEAR here, are you waiting for a pullback, or do you think 4.43 won’t hold?
Just my personal view, not investment advice, DYOR
#NEAR #ContractStrategy #AIBTC had a sharp dip in the afternoon, with the lowest point at 79,638.6 at 16:00 Beijing time on OKEx.
At 17:45, it was pulled directly up to 80,549, now around 80,373, basically flat over 24h.
This week’s calendar is full: Wednesday is the Fed meeting, with results at 2 AM Thursday Beijing time. CME FedWatch shows a 90.6% chance of no change, 9.4% chance of a rate hike, and 0% chance of a rate cut; on Friday, about $11 billion worth of Bitcoin options expire.
The liquidation distribution is quite symmetrical. According to data from pumpglass contracts, there are about $100 million long liquidations near 78,701 below, about $61 million short liquidations at 81,705 above, and $110 million more at 83,145.
ETH is currently at 2,331. CoinGlass reports the largest single liquidation in 24h was a $6.97 million ETHUSDT long, liquidated near 2,322.
My view is that the liquidation levels on both sides will likely be tested before the meeting. I won’t add positions before the meeting; I’ll watch which side of 78.7k and 81.7k gets taken out first.
Based on public information, this is my personal opinion for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market has risks. Invest cautiously $BTC $ETH $SNDK