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Move's dual-chain "retention" test
$SUI and $APT both emphasize performance, but valuation cannot be judged by TPS alone. The highlight for SUI is its channels: on October 29, it advanced cooperation with Brazil's Mercado Bitcoin, covering SUI, stablecoins, and subsequent financial products. Accessible channels do not equal transaction volume, much less that every stablecoin transfer will boost SUI. Its total supply cap is 10 billion tokens, with fees, staking, and storage funds constituting token utility; next, attention should focus on real active Brazilian users, stablecoin transfers, and new circulating supply. Coverage is just the opening act; sustained usage is the main feature.
APT bets on trading experience: on October 12, the encrypted trading pool mainnet launched, offering optional anti-front-running protection, not enabled by default; a governance proposal was executed in early October. The direction is practical, but technical upgrades won't automatically drive migration. Key metrics are actual adoption rate, on-chain fees and burns, and whether applications can bring stable retention.
Both chains have performance stories and supply pressures. If choosing one, I slightly favor APT: anti-front-running is closer to high-frequency trading, and once the experience is adopted, repeated use is easier to observe; SUI has a larger channel space but a longer conversion chain. Ultimately, whoever can turn new features into daily repeated use deserves to talk about valuation premium. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 The key level holds, but funds have not arrived
BTC stabilizes above 78000, ETH returns to 2300
Superficial recovery, funds hesitate
A bunch of negative factors: hacker incidents, ETF outflows, cooling rate cut expectations
BTC resists the drop, falling less than 3%
The rebound relies on short covering, with long positions clustered between 78556–78836
No incremental buying, holding the key level does not mean buying has returned
ETH retakes 2300
ETF outflows continue for more than twenty days, BlackRock's ETHA single-day outflow reaches 138 million
2350–2370 is the heavy resistance zone
Midterm elections and non-farm payrolls are approaching
BTC options volatility at 43.5%
78000 and 2300 are the psychological defense lines for bulls and bears
Whoever breaks first loses chips
Direction unclear, do not chase rallies or sell-offs, patience is king
$BTC $ETH #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #AAOI高速光模块放量，Q3财报能否超预期？
The probability of revenue exceeding consensus is somewhat positive, but the threshold for EPS surpassing expectations is not lower than that for revenue. If a true "beat" occurs, it is unlikely to come from 800G itself (which is already fully priced in), but more likely from a faster shipment pace of 1.6T at the end of Q3 than the conservative "initial shipment" wording, or from CATV's profit margin contribution exceeding expectations. Conversely, the biggest downside risk is the simultaneous realization of 100G decline and 800G capacity constraints, causing revenue to barely hit the lower half of guidance and profits to be further squeezed by costs.Some say that after the past few US midterm elections, $BTC has experienced varying degrees of decline, so this time of year is not suitable for leverage, and contract trading should not be entered into lightly.
This view seems to have historical basis, but I believe the biggest problem is focusing only on historical ups and downs while ignoring the current market structure.
Let's go back to November of 2014, 2018, and 2022 to see what the BTC trend was in those years.
📉 2014: A typical bear market
From the daily chart at that time, the 200-day moving average was continuously downward, and the price always stayed below the moving average, clearly suppressed overall.
More importantly, the descending trendline was never effectively broken.
At this time, the market itself was in a bear cycle, so price weakness was not surprising. Why must the decline be attributed to the midterm election?
📉 2018: The bear market trend still unchanged
Looking at 2018, the situation was very similar to 2014.
The 200-day moving average was downward, price was continuously suppressed, the descending trendline was never broken, and the market showed no clear bullish structure.
In such an environment, expecting a sustained rise lacks sufficient technical basis.
📉 2022: The market still in a weak cycle
Now look at 2022.
Where is the price? Where is the yearly moving average? Where is the descending trendline?
The overall market structure remains bearish, showing obvious similarities to the previous two years.
🔥 So, 2026 "Elections Are Not a Tourniquet"
With the midterm elections approaching, voices claiming "all bad news is priced in" have resurfaced. But ETF fund flow data reminds us: don't rush to bottom call. On November 2, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $398.6 million, IBIT had a single-day outflow of $405.3 million, while FBTC reversed with an inflow of $6.7 million; on October 30, there was an outflow of $643.2 million. The selling pressure is concentrated rather than a full retreat, and continuous bleeding cannot be lightly dismissed as "oversold." Key points to watch: whether ETFs can stop outflows, whether spot trading volume increases, and if there is active buying at previous lows.
On the same day, $ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of $139.7 million, with ETHA outflowing $138.3 million. It is suppressed by risk appetite and also needs to address whether on-chain activity, fees, and staking demand can support its valuation. If funds continue to withdraw, no matter how good the technical narrative is, it will be hard to sustain the price.
Both are bleeding, but the logic differs: $BTC is seeing large funds turning back, while ETH still needs to prove its utility. After the election, BTC may stabilize first, but ETH could have greater elasticity; the sequence depends on fund flows turning positive first, not slogans sounding louder. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 Stop staring at the intraday chart trying to guess the bottom. Last night, the ETF fund statement flipped, and the scene was even more exciting than the candlestick chart.
$BTC had over 80 million withdrawn on the 30th, but quietly replenished 850,000 yesterday. The amount isn't large, but at least it shows some institutions are unwilling to continue cutting positions at this price level and have started small-scale probing.
$ETH suffered continuous outflows in the past two days, but finally saw a net inflow of over 14 million yesterday. However, this volume looks more like short-term traders shifting positions; big players like BlackRock remain inactive, so there's no sign of a trend reversal.
The funniest is $SOL, which had zero inflows and outflows yesterday. Institutions are too lazy to even pretend, basically leaving the market to retail investors to battle it out.
Summary: The current ETF data only indicates a pause in panic, with short-term funds circulating back and forth. Big capital hasn't truly entered the market yet. Without incremental support, rebounds are prone to being hollow rallies, so don't get carried away with every rise.
Institutions are still watching from the sidelines. Are you planning to reduce your positions on the rebound today, or hold firm? #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 Someone told me: historically, after every US midterm election, $BTC tends to decline, so it's best not to use leverage or easily trade contracts during this period.
It sounds reasonable, but I want to say: history can be a reference, but you can't directly apply past trends to the current market!
Let's look back at the positions of Bitcoin in November of 2014, 2018, and 2022.
📉 2014: Typical bear market structure
From the daily chart at that time, the 200-day moving average was continuously declining, BTC price was always suppressed by the moving average, and it never successfully broke through the key descending trendline.
This was clearly a bear market pattern—what direct relation does it have with the midterm election?
📉 2018: Bear market continued to deepen
The situation in 2018 was the same.
Prices kept weakening, the 200-day moving average was downward, the descending trendline continuously suppressed the market, and there was no clear bullish reversal signal in the entire market.
Under such market conditions, why expect a sudden sharp rise?
📉 2022: Still trapped in a bear market structure
Looking at 2022, where was the price? Where was the yearly moving average? Where was the descending trendline?
The overall trend was still weak, and the market structure had obvious similarities with the previous two years.
🔥 So, what’s different in 2026?
Here’s the key point!
The current BTC market structure can no longer be simply compared with those three previous years.
The price has already broken through the previous descending trendline and is about to$ETH Ethereum spot ETF has been bleeding for 23 consecutive days, setting the longest run-away record since its listing.
Institutional channels have completely dropped to freezing point.
Looking at the contracts, the long position ratio is still stubbornly holding at 77%.
The main players are offloading every day, while retail investors are catching flying knives below.
The spot buying has long been absent; the market is entirely supported by the stubborn sentiment of the bulls.
Since leverage is piled up so high, if the whales don't smash it down to trigger liquidations, they'd be wasting this fuel delivered right to their door.
#ETH
$ETH
👇In the past 3 midterm elections, $BTC has experienced adjustments of 20%-50%.
Additionally, Bitcoin did not bottom out before the midterm elections, but the situation is different now.
I believe there may be an adjustment starting from here, but it will not fall to a new cycle low.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Iran's Supreme Leader has authorized negotiations and even proposed a "two-day plan." Can the Strait of Hormuz really reopen faster this time?
Pharaoh directly says, the acceleration is real, but the "two days" is a condition Iran is offering the US, not a guarantee. Iran compressed the original "seven-day plan" into a "two-day plan": on the first day, the US must fulfill its commitments, and on the second day, the strait will reopen.Hot Coin Data Ranking｜Last 15 Minutes
$APR dropped sharply with increased volume and reduced positions, driven more by closing positions. Trading volume was 1.121 million USDT, 9.5 times the 15-minute average volume converted from the previous hour; price down 8.41%, open interest down 1.18%. The decline accompanied by position reduction looks more like positions are being withdrawn.#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
I see many people worrying about the midterm elections, so I'll explain clearly from three aspects!
Based on the midterm election situation:
Short term: post-election two weeks or immediate pullback. Historical data shows that BTC fell in the weeks following three midterm elections. Currently, the Democrats have a very high probability of taking the House, and the Senate may also flip, but this outcome is already fully priced in by the market. Meeting expectations could even trigger a "buy the rumor, sell the news" sell-off. Beware of short-term post-election pullback risks.
Mid term: policy implementation is a slow variable. Although the crypto industry has spent heavily trying to influence regulatory direction, the legislative process depends on internal Congressional negotiations, not just the President’s word. Even if "crypto-friendly" lawmakers increase, bills like the CLARITY Act will still take time to advance, so substantial benefits to BTC won’t materialize immediately after the election.
Long term: 2026 is a special cycle. In the past, BTC rose in the 12 months after midterms, but then prices were in a deep bear market zone 67%-73% below the peak; in 2026, BTC is only about 36% below the peak and already experienced a more than 50% pullback in June. This means the bottom formation in this cycle is significantly different from historical patterns, so simply applying the "post-election year rise" experience is unreliable.
In summary, the election itself is not a decisive variable for BTC’s trend. In the short term, guard against post-election sentiment fading; in the mid term, focus on actual progress of regulatory bills; in the long term, pricing still depends on liquidity and the halving cycle position. #BTC/USDT ANALYSIS
Bitcoin is rebounding from the support trendline of the descending broadening wedge pattern. Currently, it is trading below the 21MA which is acting as a resistance barrier.
A solid breakout of the 21MA will provide further upward rally. Here, we can also see a formation of double bottom pattern. Keep a close eye on these key levels for confirmation.Alarm sounding! Bullish lending is completely overcrowded, and unanimous bullishness is often a precursor to a shakeout
The latest borrowing data is glaring: BTC, ETH, and SOL bullish lending overwhelmingly crushes bearish lending, with market bullish sentiment highly aligned. An old rule in crypto: when everyone thinks alike and crowding maxes out, a wave of emotional sell-off can happen at any Today's capital flow data provides more information than the candlestick chart: BTC and ETH are simultaneously bleeding in both spot and futures markets, while SOL shows spot-side absorption, indicating a divergence in the structure of the three.
BTC｜Futures net outflow of $194 million, spot net outflow of $76.36 million. Withdrawal on both sides suggests funds remain defensive; the market rebound seems more like reshuffling of existing funds rather than a trend reversal.
ETH｜Futures net outflow of $95.69 million, spot net outflow of $114 million. Spot selling pressure is heavier than futures, indicating not just deleveraging but overall position reduction, making it the weakest structure among the three.
SOL｜Futures net outflow of $79.49 million, spot net inflow of $8.84 million. Leverage is retreating, spot is absorbing, showing the best relative strength; however, the inflow volume is limited, only a partial absorption, insufficient to confirm a strengthening trend.
Overall, deleveraging continues: SOL is relatively resilient, BTC and others see capital returning, ETH remains weak. At this point, chasing the rally is not cost-effective; focus first on whether spot outflows can narrow. $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC is back at the 76,326 threshold.
The lowest today was 76,389, just 63 dollars short, no break.
I originally thought the answer was given last week.
On October 30, it hit 76,326 and bounced back, I wrote at the time "held the line."
But this is the second test.
October 30 low was 76,326, November 2 low was 76,705. Today 76,389.
Current price 77,281, down 0.98% in 24 hours.
The upper boundary has also been around the same area.
November 2 high was 78,878. November 1 was 78,422 $BTC
The Bitcoin four-year cycle perfectly coincides with the US midterm elections, which is quite a coincidence.
Every midterm election period marks the end of a bear market. This was the case in 2014, 2018, and 2022. After the midterm elections, there is another sharp drop, the market bottoms out, and the bull market begins.
The difference is that each bottoming time has been occurring earlier. The banquet is trending, but Meme coins are not buying it: DOGE leverage clusters, PEPE bulls begging for mercy
The Meme community was flooded with a banquet this week, but prices did not follow the rise. DOGE, TRUMP, and PEPE are all retail sentiment thermometers, but who can catch the crowd varies greatly.
First, look at $DOGE, current price 0.074, 4-hour long-short ratio as high as 5.23. Despite the drop, bulls are still holding on stubbornly, leverage stacked like a fortress. When the main force sees such chips, it’s hard to lightly push the price up without first sweeping a batch with a big bearish candle.
Next, look at $TRUMP, elections have a huge impact on it; once news comes, it’s unstoppable, and volatility is entirely driven by sentiment.
Finally, look at $PEPE, current price 0.0000047, funding rate crushed to -0.15%, bulls have been tormented to the point of paying to hold positions; the long-short ratio has fallen from a high in the morning session, indicating many can’t bear the losses and are cutting their positions. When panic selling emerges, there might be a short-term rebound, but the overall trend remains weak.
Until the main force is satisfied, any rebound looks more like a bull trap. Staying out of the market and watching is at least not losing.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #PalantirQ3营收增长96%，股价不涨反跌 Don't be fooled by the 4.41% rebound in 24 hours — this is not a recovery phase with increased cardiac output, but a hyperperfusion illusion after ischemia: the vessels look red, but the myocardium is crying out for oxygen. $APT is currently at 0.63, with the price pushed to 120% of the Bollinger Bands' short cycle, 0.6% above the upper band, and 3.7% above the lower band, like an overestimated ejection fraction and maximally stretched ventricular wall tension in the compensatory end stage seen in ultrasound. The short-cycle RSI is 70.3, clearly overbought; the long-cycle RSI is 54.1, still neutral — this short-long divergence is not systemic failure but a localized sympathetic storm, indicating the surgical indication is "decompression" rather than "bypass."
The more critical lesion lies in the Bollinger Bands' mid-cycle: the price is at the 97th percentile, only 0.2% from the upper band and 5.2% from the lower band, indicating this upward push has pushed the afterload to a critical point, and any pullback could trigger rapid decompensation. The 4.41% volatility in 24 hours seems like stable vital signs but actually shows narrowing pulse pressure; chasing longs is like adding fluid to an already overloaded ventricle. My judgment is to wait for a pullback to 0.64, which is 2.0% above the current price, to confirm outflow tract resistance before implementing reverse decompression. The short position targets are two-tiered: the first target is 0.59, corresponding to -6.1%, the first drop point for short-cycle overbought correction; the second target is 0.60, corresponding to -4.9%, serving as an alternative hemostatic clamp. The stop loss must be set at 0.70, corresponding to +12.1%, which is the ventricular rupture defense line; once crossed, compensation has turned to decompensation, and immediate chest closure is required.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.64 (current price +2.0%)
Take Profit 1: 0.59 (-6.1%)
Take Profit 2: 0.60 (-4.9%)
Stop Loss: 0.70 (+12.1%)
This tachycardic market is only suitable for short-window decompression, not for long-term bypass.$BTC Many people are still focused on ETFs, thinking that as long as funds enter the market, a rally will immediately follow. But the current problem is that inflows lack sustainability; much of it is arbitrage capital that cashes out as soon as prices rise a bit. Institutions are slowly buying on one side, while on the other side, huge whales sell during rebounds. The trapped positions above are heavily suppressed, and sell orders hit hard as soon as resistance levels are reached.
Bulls want to break upward but lack continuous incremental buying; bears want to break support, but there is also a batch of funds waiting to catch the fall. The tug-of-war causes the market to constantly sweep stop losses back and forth. Whether you chase longs or bottom-fish, it’s easy to get hit from both sides.
In short, this is a zero-sum game now. Outside money is unwilling to enter, so everyone is cutting each other within the range. Whenever the Nasdaq or U.S. Treasury bonds move slightly, fund preferences immediately shift, which is the root cause of ETF funds flowing in and out intermittently.
In this choppy market, the biggest taboo is betting on a one-sided breakout. Don’t guess when it will go up, and don’t casually take heavy short positions. Before a real breakout from the range occurs, any break on either side could be a false breakout. Be patient: either wait for ETFs to flow in continuously and steadily, with volume confirming a hold above resistance; or wait until support is completely broken and then follow the direction. Opening random positions now has too low a cost-performance ratio. $ETH $SOL
#BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 The opponent hands over the pawn right to my mouth, but I never eat it on the spot—I first figure out whether it's a bait or a trap. $ACH is currently presenting exactly this bait: a 2.12% rise in 24 hours, the short-term RSI has already touched 65.1, and the price has been pushed to 114% of the Bollinger Band's short-term range, standing 0.3% outside the upper band—the pawn has crossed the boundary line, but there are no supporting pieces behind it.
This is a lone pawn charge, not an offensive. The real situation assessment must look at the long-term cycle: RSI is 41.7, still stuck in the weak half; the Bollinger Band's mid-term cycle has only reached 72%, with the upper band still pressing down 1.3% overhead. The short-term strength is just a tactical counterattack in the long-term endgame; the initiative temporarily belongs to the bulls, but the control is not in their hands.
Therefore, the signal points to a counter move. I never make a move when the pieces are most excited, but wait for the opponent to make one more wasted move: enter the market by placing an order 1.8% above the current price, letting that charging pawn move one step further, exposing the gap behind it.
But the cost of this game must be calculated openly. The stop loss is at +11.2%, with two take-profit levels at -4.7% and -3.4%, the risk-reward ratio is about 1 to 0.4. This is not an advantageous position; this is a sacrifice defense: winning only wins a small margin, losing means losing half the game. The chess principle is straightforward—when the risk-reward ratio is not on your side, the only thing you can do is reduce the force invested. The same judgment, using a quarter of the position to bear the risk, is called thinking twenty moves ahead before making a move, rather than taking it step by step.
The first take-profit level is at -4.7%, which is the first step back from short-term overbought; if the opponent refuses to admit defeat and continues to press up, then retreat to the second take-profit level at -3.4%, securing half a step of initiative. The +11.2% stop loss is the bottom line; once breached, it means the long-term RSI 41.7 has flipped, the entire situation is reassessed, all pieces are withdrawn, no lingering in battle.
📉 Short:
Entry: 1.8% above current price
Take Profit 1: -4.7%
Take Profit 2: -3.4%
Stop Loss: +11.2%
In this game, I don't fight for momentum, only for the initiative in the half-step endgame.💰 US spot BTC ETFs shed $643.2m on 30 October, leaving the month about $516m net negative.
IBIT drove October’s inflows, but Friday’s selling hit every major fund.
With price 7.5% below the average ETF cost, inflows beyond IBIT would be the first sign of broader demand.The probability of the Democratic Party controlling both chambers is significantly higher—about 84%–95% for the House of Representatives and 64%–78% for the Senate.
But don’t just focus on "who wins" to trade US stocks. Historical data is quite interesting: in the year following midterm elections, the S&P 500 almost always posts positive returns, averaging +14.4%; however, from May to October in election years, it typically falls by an average of 2.6% with high volatility. Simply put, party affiliation itself is not the decisive factor for the direction of US stocks.
The baseline scenario for 2026 is Democratic control of both chambers, with a short-term impact on the S&P 500 ranging from -0.25% to +0.5%, which is minimal; a split Congress might yield about +0.5% to +1%; the probability of Republicans holding both chambers is low, but the short-term volatility could be the greatest.
By sector: Republican control of both chambers benefits energy, finance, defense, and semiconductor AI; Democratic control favors hospitals, insurance, and clean energy, but pharmaceutical companies, platforms, and oil & gas face pressure; a split Congress results in the weakest policy tailwinds, with the market returning to fundamentals.Stablecoin giant Circle is about to release its Q3 earnings report. The core market disagreement this time is just one: USDC's circulation scale and payment business are indeed growing, but can this really translate into solid profits?
From the current betting sentiment, the market expectation is quite optimistic, with as many as 68% of players believing the earnings will exceed expectations. But to really break down this earnings report, you need to focus on three key indicators:
First, look at reserve income. In the current high-interest environment, Circle is making a fortune from reserves in U.S. Treasury bonds, which is its lifeline.
Second, look at distribution costs. Especially the large channel fees paid to Coinbase, which directly determine whether profits can actually be realized.
Finally, look at the real expansion of the payment business. Stablecoins can't just stay within the trading circle; whether they can move toward real commercial payments determines their long-term valuation ceiling.
Currently, CRCL stock price is slightly down 0.11%, with funds cautious ahead of the earnings report. For this kind of crypto "water seller" earnings report, the odds of betting on direction are actually not high. It is recommended not to rush into positions; wait for the U.S. stock pre-market data to come out, see the quality of profits and the proportion of distribution costs clearly, then decide whether to go long with the trend or to wait and see. #IRENQ1AICloudDelivery Neocloud pricing is ridiculous right now, especially for $IREN. Market is pricing their minimum projected $4b ARR by year end 2026 around 3x EV/ARR, while their minimum projected $17b ARR by year end 2027 is around 0.8x EV/ARR.
What a gift to be able to buy $IREN at these prices, but not sure why so many investors are fearful right now. Maybe it stems from panic in seeing their investment portfolio move down aggressively. I’m certainly not concerned with my bet on $IREN $KMNO
I haven't mentioned this coin before. Kamino, a lending protocol on Solana, surged 16% overnight.
Opened at 0.0299, now at 0.0347, 24h high 0.035, hovering near the high.
The first thing I did was check the perpetual pool, $880,000. Only this much leverage is playing. 1H volume climbed from 38,000 contracts to 280,000, then dropped back to 87,000, all spot trades, contracts didn't keep up. The fee rate is still negative, -0.035%, shorts are paying longs.
I don't chase this kind of rise. It's not that I don't believe it will go up, but the pool is too shallow, trades easily push the price themselves. I'll wait until it really drops with a high-volume bearish candle before checking again.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC
77888, the highest point touched tonight, now 77518, a pullback of over three hundred dollars.
Citibank Wealth Management just released a report, pushing spot BTC and ETH ETFs to their own clients. The channel is really opening. At the same time, the US spot ETFs saw a net outflow of one billion dollars over two trading days.
New channel opens, old money withdraws. I've seen this combination before; usually the channel arrives first, money comes later, but this time the first to arrive are redemption orders.
The market depth is more straightforward. 1H volumes are 5972, 5238, 4208, 2858, 2045, 1732, each smaller than the last. Price ground down from 77656 to 77518, 77700 couldn't hold. The fee rate is still +0.01%, open interest is 2.57 billion, just over ten million less than two hours ago.
Volume shrinks, price sideways, selling pressure is not heavy, and there are no relays. I don't consider this a bottom, only acknowledge it is not falling right now. At this position, I stay empty-handed.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ The latest leveraged long data is out, but first, let's pour a bucket of cold water on the bros 🧊
BTC: 1,507.55 longs borrowed, 68.89 shorts borrowed, about 22 times long to short; ETH: 16,400 longs borrowed, 766.95 shorts borrowed, about 21 times; SOL: 129,900 longs borrowed, only 3,148 shorts borrowed, long to short ratio directly hitting 41 times 😮
Borrowing coins and leveraging longs essentially means retail traders have already spent all their bullets. Now the short size is only a fraction of the longs, indicating sentiment is almost one-sided. The question is: how much new buying power is left to take over? Once there's any disturbance, clustered long positions are prone to concentrated stop losses, which could trigger an emotional shakeout wave 🌊
After trading for so many years, I increasingly believe one thing: when everyone is bullish, don't follow the hype. When longs are crowded to the extreme, smooth upward movement becomes difficult, and the chance of a shakeout is higher ⚠️
Coincidentally, the non-farm payrolls come on November 6, and whether there will be a rate hike in December will be repriced. Sensitive nodes combined with high crowding mean short-term volatility is inevitable 📉📈
The strategy is simple: don't heavily chase longs when sentiment is most unanimous. Wait for the shakeout to finish and for chips to change hands. Staying alive is more important than grabbing that one bite 💪$BTC #加密行业协同守护资产安全 Enterprises continue to increase their BTC holdings, with the latest holdings surpassing 2 million coins; market liquidity continues to flow out, and sentiment is clearly divided.
Within the square, 28% are bullish, 28% bearish, and the rest neutral.
• Bullish views believe:
- Strategy increased its BTC holdings by 811 coins to 849,327 coins, with a cumulative holding cost of about $64.08 billion, demonstrating long-term confidence in BTC.
- Tether holds about 150,000 bitcoins, using up to 15% of its quarterly net profit since 2023 for continuous purchases; private companies' total bitcoin holdings have exceeded 200,000 coins.
- Global systemically important banks such as Citibank have launched institutional bitcoin custody services, marking an increased acceptance of digital assets by traditional financial institutions.
Bearish views believe:
- The US spot bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows for two consecutive days, with cumulative net outflows exceeding $400 million, indicating weak institutional demand.
- The total market value of stablecoins has declined for more than a month, with $6.9 billion outflow in the past month, reflecting a decrease in market risk appetite.
- The US dollar is the strongest among safe-haven assets, while gold and bitcoin weakened during the same period, indicating heightened investor risk aversion.$XRP XRP spot buy orders below 1.25 are holding the market firmly.
Whales have locked nearly 68.5% of the tokens on-chain, so there’s hardly any floating supply outside.
Short sellers are just stubbornly resisting, paying interest daily to keep shorting.
With such a thin order book above, if the main force pushes up a bit, all these short positions will instantly turn into ready fuel for a price rally.
#XRP
$XRP
👇$BTC exchange hacker caused a gap of tens of billions, ETF withdrew 600 million in one day, yet the BTC price stubbornly stayed around 77,000.
If this were a bear market, it would have crashed to zero long ago. The bears have used all their nuclear bearish weapons, but the price can't even break through the previous low, indicating that there is a lot of eager buying capital waiting on the sidelines.
All the bad news has come out and still no crash; next, the sellers will have to buy back their positions in the spot market themselves.
#BTC
$BTC
👇The most dangerous signal in the crypto circle has appeared! BTC rebounds, ETH follows, altcoins start to emerge, but the real big money may still be watching! How far can this rebound go?
First, look at $BTC: $77,622, up 0.87%
The US midterm elections are rattling the market nerves, and there is important employment data on November 6. More troublesome is that BTC spot ETFs have seen significant outflows before, and institutional buying has yet to confirm a return. Watch 78,000 in the short term; only a breakthrough will have a chance to challenge 80,000, otherwise, support at 76,000 must be guarded.
Next, look at $ETH: $2,291, up 1.79%
ETH's rebound is stronger than BTC's, but don't rush to call the bull market back. The Fed's rate expectations remain uncertain, and funds are more cautious. 2,250 is the short-term defense line; breaking through 2,350 can further open up space.
Finally, look at $UNI: $7.244, up 2.16%
UNI follows the rebound, and the DeFi sector shows signs of warming up, but sustained buying validation is still lacking. Holding 7 dollars is necessary to have a chance to push to 7.5; breaking below means caution for giving back gains.
A few final words:
The market's biggest deception is making you feel like you missed the bottom. My idea is simple: I'd rather earn less than go all in when the direction is unclear!
Brothers, are you bottom-fishing or watching this wave?
#迈威尔拟换股收购Lumentum，加码AI光通信布局 Bitcoin was below the 200-day moving average on the US midterm election days in 2014, 2018, and 2022, approximately 35%, 9%, and 22% lower respectively, but this year is different. Currently, Bitcoin's price is about $76,990, 5.2% above the 200-day moving average of around $73,169, indicating a relatively strong long-term trend. The 2026 Bitcoin bear market is shallower and the decline occurred earlier, with the main correction concentrated from January to February this year. Martin Lee, head The pinball machine looks wider, and both balls ended up stuck at the bottom edge. The 02—03 o'clock BTC and ETH also have a similar meaning: they ran further than the previous hour, but with less trading volume, and the close was near the low point.
According to OKX spot, BTC's highest price minus lowest price in this hour expanded from 187.9 to 345.1 USDT, trading volume decreased by about 24%, closing at 77590, only 30.5 above the lowest price. During the session, it even touched 20 points above the four-hour high from 8 PM to midnight last night, but closed back below that high.
ETH's hourly price spread expanded from 7.21 to 11.26, trading volume decreased by about 7%, closing at 2293.20, only 0.39 above the lowest. It passed 2300 during the session but didn't even touch the highest price of that four-hour period last night. Both ended up closing within 10% of their respective hourly range lows.
This time I will first note the closing position. If the next candle can close back in the upper half of this one, this kind of weakness ending near the low point will need to be reassessed. The 03—04 hour candle and the 00—04 four-hour candle have not yet closed. Data as of 03:00 Beijing time on November 4. For informational purposes only, not investment advice.Chairman Selig just dropped a statement on Equity Perpetual Futures
The CFTC has cleared the way for Equity Perps to begin trading on eligible regulated US exchanges, bringing stocks like Apple, Tesla, and NVIDIA into the perp market.
This is bigger than just another product launch. Perps are slowly moving beyond crypto, expanding into traditional financial markets.
For platforms like Lighter, this could be a major long term narrative.
$LIT Mid-term intelligence is here, just finished digging the latest ETF data, let me show you.
$BTC here, a single-day net outflow of 398.6 million, IBIT alone withdrew 405.3 million. Including last Friday, over 1 billion was withdrawn in two days. The price looks like it’s rebounding, but big money is desperately running out, this rally really lacks strength.
$ETH is worse, a single-day outflow of 139.7 million, blood drained for six consecutive days! ETHA almost monopolized the entire day’s selling pressure. Retail investors are waiting for a reversal, institutions are quietly reducing positions, this contrast must be guarded against.
$SOL single-day net flow is zero, accumulated outflow of 71.6 million in the previous five days, can only say the selling pressure has temporarily stopped, it’s too early to talk about inflows.
In summary, institutions are all withdrawing, mainly defensive, don’t hold on stubbornly.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Three coins, one direction. $BTC at 77,230.48 (-1.15% over 24 hours), $ETH at 2,259.38 (-0.41%) and $ZEC at 1,190.65 (-3.49%) all broke lower together, confirming what the bearish camp had argued: a bounce without volume, one that fails to reclaim a moving average, is not a reversal. The market has now validated that framework across three very different profiles. 📉 The technical picture is uniform but not identical. $BTC printed a fresh MACD bearish crossover and slipped beneath its 7-day moviConclusion first: $BTC is forming a minute-level bullish divergence indicating a short-term rebound, but the larger timeframe remains under pressure, representing a pullback window within a downtrend, not a reversal.
Short-term resistance: around 77580–78000
Short-term support: around 75880–74800
If it breaks below 74788, the bullish divergence structure fails, and the long position idea should be abandoned. #تقرير Circle's earnings are on the horizon, can stablecoin growth generate returns? USDC has become the first "significant electronic money token" in the European Union. Among forty-five types of EMT, it is the only one to hold this title, and the cost is that as of November 12, private funds, reserves, liquidity, and recovery plans will be directly managed by the EBA, while France will only handle human resources and outsourcing.BTC Faces Three Major Challenges at November's Start: Elections, Interest Rate Decisions, and Non-Farm Payrolls
At the start of November, BTC faces three hurdles: today's midterm elections, this month's central bank interest rate decisions, and the November 6 non-farm payroll data, followed by the CPI on the 10th. Before these events unfold one by one, large investors generally avoid heavy positions, leading to low volume and choppy trading, with rebounds failing to gain momentum.
Price-wise, BTC is consolidating around 77,000: there is dense resistance near 78,700 above, and support around 76,200 below. In this turbulent period, heavy one-sided bets are the biggest risk.
In terms of timing, the election results will first digest political sentiment, then the non-farm payrolls will reveal employment strength and rate hike expectations, with the CPI providing additional inflation clues afterward. Before the data releases, light or no positions and waiting is safer; enter the market only after a data point is released and the direction becomes clear. Avoid holding positions through news vacuums and enduring volatility.
This is for market observation reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ETH $BTC $SOL $BTC is repeatedly tugging near $77,000, while $SUI is struggling even to hold $0.85 — the most ironic crack appears here: the ecosystem is expanding, developer tools are updating, network performance is iterating, yet token prices seem unaware. This mismatch of “strong fundamentals, cold capital” is exactly the narrative most worth watching in the current market. First, look at $BTC. The price is around $77,100, fluctuating narrowly within 24 hours, with $77,500 repeatedly gained and lost; whether it can firmly hold this level is the short-term focus. The significance of this level is not the round number itself, but that it tests whether capital is willing to continue buying at the upper edge of the range. If it holds, it means selling pressure has been absorbed; if it repeatedly fails, the consolidation pattern continues. $ETH is around $2,258, clearly following along. Resistance near $2,300 remains, and short-term upward momentum is insufficient. Its problem is not a lack of narrative, but that the narrative currently cannot attract incremental buying — until $BTC gives a direction, $ETH is more likely to continue playing a Beta role rather than leading the rally. What truly deserves separate mention is $SUI. The price is about $0.874, bearing the heaviest pressure among the three. The latest moves are continuous network performance upgrades and ecosystem tool development, consolidating its position as a high-performance public chain, with long-term user migration and developer stories strengthening, but short-term market reaction remains cautious. If $0.85 is lost, short-term pressure may further increase. The key here is not "whether the ecosystem is good," but " $BTC stands around $77,500, with fork lines below and above. First look at the two lines, shout before seeing the result.
Below is $76,518, the low point on October 30. If it closes below, first watch $75,000. Then look at the 200-day moving average around $73,169. Above is $80,400, the upper range from last week. If it closes back above, first see if there is inflow on the ETF that day.
Current price is about $77,533, up about 1.1% in one day. $ETH is about $2,292, up about 1.6% in one day. ETF outflow last Friday was about $643M, the largest single-day outflow since June. Strategy bought 811 coins worth about $65.5M. Average price is about $80,846. ETF and treasury average cost is about $80,000 to $81,500. Current price is below.
Bitfinex says the election is a legislative catalyst in 2027. Not a price event for tomorrow. Just watch if the two lines hold, no direction given.This altcoin has the potential to 10X again
Still not sure which altcoin to bottom-fish? Take a look here
Among the newly launched tokens this round, I’m only following two: one is $牛来 mentioned yesterday, and the other is $PONS
I made a little money on PONS this year, bought in at 0.1 and sold at 0.35, so I have some affection for it and have been keeping an eye on it
But let’s analyze rationally. Personally, I think its advantages are as follows:
① PONS is the token launch platform on the $HOOD Chain. It’s one of the very early launch platforms on Robinhood Chain, so it can capture the traffic and users on Robinhood
② The most impressive is its buyback and burn flywheel: about 80% of protocol fees are used for automatic TWAP buybacks and burning of PONS, creating deflationary pressure. This is why I’ve been saying this round could be a buyback bull run
③ Fixed supply + continuous burn: max supply is 1 billion, with ongoing burns reducing circulating supply, theoretically supporting long-term scarcity
④ Robinhood Chain is still in its early stages and has huge potential to expand its ecosystem in the future. Naturally, memecoins will be part of this, which will heat up the launch platform again
⑤ Max market cap was $270 million, currently $135 million, down 80%
In summary, next we need to watch whether market risk appetite for it will rise, whether on-chain activity can rebound, and pay attention to the price range of 0.1-0.15 There's something I haven't figured out: a company didn't do much else, just raised another round, and its valuation doubled from $8 billion to $16 billion.
Fal raised $1.3 billion in the F round, focusing on AI inference. The list of investors is impressive, led by Bessemer, with Nvidia also pitching in.
Nvidia's chips are selling like hotcakes, yet they insist on investing in inference companies—is it because they're worried about downstream demand? The computing power narrative that $TAO has been pushing for two years probably needs to be brought up again.
With such pricing in the primary market, it's not surprising that $FET moves along for a couple of days. But the money belongs to others; the position is your own.A startup focused on inference has doubled its valuation in a Series F round—Fal just secured $1.3 billion in funding, raising its valuation from $8 billion to $16 billion.
What’s worth watching is not the absolute value, but the timing of its emergence. Over the past year, the market has been discussing "AI capital expenditure peaking," but the primary market’s answer is to keep doubling down, specifically on inference rather than training.
The lead investor is Bessemer, with Nvidia also involved, along with Sound Ventures, HOF Capital, and T. Rowe Price. The fact that both financial investors and industry players are participating indicates the bet is not on a concept, but that inference demand is truly becoming a recurring paid service.
The mechanism is straightforward: once model capabilities converge, whoever offers cheaper and faster inference will capture the call volume. As call volume increases, computing power and electricity become hard constraints, and this chain ultimately transmits to on-chain computing power and decentralized inference targets.
$TAO represents the computing power supply side, while $FET and $NEAR represent the agent and inference call demand side. The narrative hasn’t changed, but this time there is a real cash pricing reference.
One point to consider: the $16 billion valuation is for an inference company that hasn’t gone public yet, while the total market cap of similar on-chain assets is not far from this number. The gap is both an opportunity and a warning—when valuations run ahead and revenues come later, pullbacks often happen faster than the rise.BTC faces a double test this week ⚠️
The crypto market is unsettled this week, with two macro events affecting $BTC nerves: the midterm election results will be revealed in the next two days; at 9:30 PM Friday, the non-farm payroll data will follow 📊. Currently, $BTC is tugging around $77,000, with both bulls and bears cautious to make a move.
Based on the current situation, there is a significant possibility of bearish impact on the crypto space after these two events unfold, and short-term sentiment may be further suppressed 😮💨. Will BTC continue to weaken? When will it recover? It's too early to conclude now. The key depends on whether the election results and employment data exceed expectations, and whether the support near $77,000 holds 🔍.
If the negative factors are realized but selling pressure diminishes, a recovery window may open; otherwise, weak consolidation may prolong. In short: wait for the events to unfold, then observe the capital reaction; don't rush to bottom-fish or blindly short 📌. (The above is market observation only and does not constitute investment advice)$BTC chip concentration indicator continued to decline today, recording 13.03% (yesterday 13.53%)
After a weak rebound yesterday, BTC fell back below 77000 today, far from the high chip concentration area near 81000
However, 13.03% is still very high, and the potential volatility risk this week remains significantBitcoin has really been worrying these past couple of days! $BTC
A few days ago, it was repeatedly fighting around the 365-day moving average, and today it took another dive! Currently, BTC has dropped to around $76,660, the 365-day moving average is about $76,929, and the upper edge of the weekly bullish support zone is around $76,719. These two lines are almost squeezed together, yet the price has fallen below them! It seems the bulls are facing quite a bit of pressure this time.
We really can't be blindly optimistic right now. The key point to watch next is whether it can quickly reclaim $77,000. If it fails to hold above that for a long time, the 50-week moving average near $75,600 will likely be tested again. Of course, the daily candle hasn't closed yet, so it's still too early to draw conclusions.
Brothers, keep observing and patiently wait for the market to give us the answer!$BTC Bearish: IBIT outflow of $405 million in a single day, the largest since June
US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $399 million on Monday, marking the second consecutive day of outflows, totaling about $1.04 billion over two trading days (Farside, Bloomberg)
The majority is with BlackRock's IBIT, which redeemed $405 million in one day, while Fidelity's FBTC saw a slight inflow of $6.7 million
IBIT was the main source of subscriptions in October, supporting previous rebounds; this channel turning into net redemptions means the spot market loses its most stable support
BTC is currently at $77,589.9, up 0.74% in 24 hours, with a low of $76,386; the price hasn't dropped much, but institutional money is flowing out
Meanwhile, ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for six consecutive trading days, and after Binance's reopening, customer net withdrawals reached $4.72 billion, indicating overall tight liquidity.