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Continuing from the previous chapter, I just forgot to mention that when picking stocks, you must choose large-cap stocks, just like when we trade cryptocurrencies, it's best to only focus on $BTC.
We can see that although the US stock market hit new highs again in July and August, in reality, their small-cap stocks fell even worse than the large A-shares. But because the seven sisters of the US stock market are so strong, they support the Nasdaq, making it seem like everything is still thriving.
Back to why we choose $MU for the long term, a company with a deep moat — it's simple: broad business and low substitutability. In the long run, due to the scarcity of technology, it can still develop new business chains and is hard to be choked off.
But $SNDK is different; it’s more like an OEM factory. From the start, its business was shallow, focusing solely on the information AI field, with a very narrow profile of upstream suppliers and customers. This is why once volatility hits, SanDisk’s fluctuations are large — essentially, it has high elasticity and high substitutability.
Regarding speculation, I believe there are some very skilled people who might prefer to invest in companies like SanDisk. But as an economics graduate student with formal training, I want to say that ordinary people should give up the idea of getting rich overnight as soon as possible, and just do regular investments in stocks with deep moats or just Nasdaq index investing.
Anything else doesn’t really matter!
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ APR pulled back 88% from its historical low in two days. I lean towards going long, but only recognize pullbacks and breakouts, not chasing this long upper shadow.
First, what happened: October 23 marked its one-year anniversary unlock, with the team and early investors releasing tokens. It coincided with the airdrop witch scandal, causing the coin to be hammered to a historical low of 0.0225.
After the negative news was fully absorbed, today it officially announced a cross-chain partnership with Chainlink, using CCIP to enable multi-chain staking. It surged from 0.025 to 0.0548 in one day, up 66% in 24 hours, with intraday volatility exceeding 100%, and trading volume expanding several times.
I think this move is a V-shaped reversal driven by panic bottoming and short covering. The Monad ecosystem plus Chainlink is a real positive, not just hype.
But the current price of 0.042 has already doubled from the low, chasing higher now means taking the risk of being the bag holder.
Two ways to go long: enter lightly on a pullback to stabilize between 0.032 and 0.0366; or chase after a volume-backed close above today's high of 0.0548, targeting 0.07.
Stop loss if it breaks below today's low of 0.0251; if it falls back to 0.0225, the reversal is false.
Its FDV is 440 million, unlocking and selling pressure is not over yet, keep position size small, don't go heavy.
Do you bet that the negative news is fully priced in and a recovery rally is starting, or do you think the V reversal is just short covering and it still needs to retest previous lows?
$APR $BTC
#Monad #Contract $BTC is only 9 days away from the US midterm elections.
History shows that after every US midterm election, Bitcoin undergoes a correction.
Will this time be different? $ZEC $ETH The Other Side of High Buyback Ratios — The Chain Reaction of Shrinking Revenue Base
The buyback ratio is the "commitment intensity" of the mechanism, while the absolute scale of protocol revenue is the "fuel stock" of the mechanism. When the fuel stock shrinks rapidly, a high ratio alone cannot prevent the absolute buyback volume from shrinking simultaneously.
The $PENDLE mechanism is among the clearest in DeFi: 80% of protocol revenue is used to buy back PENDLE and distribute it to stakers. The buyback speed was once more than 5 times the issuance speed, and about 92% of sPENDLE holding addresses have never unstaked. However, the protocol's total quarterly revenue dropped from $9.75 million in Q3 2025 to $1.89 million in Q3 2026, a decline of about 81%. The 80% ratio remained unchanged, but the dollar amount available for buybacks shrank along with the revenue base.
$LIT presents a different tension. Lighter uses 100% of trading revenue to buy back LIT, with cumulative buybacks exceeding 18.09 million tokens, and a burn amount exceeding 7% of the initial circulating supply. In Q3 alone, 2.45 million tokens were bought back, corresponding to $8.55 million in Q3 revenue. The buyback ratio is full, but the team's and investors' first unlock is scheduled for January 29, 2027, with a 36-month linear release and no cliff. There is a balance point to track between the sustainability of buybacks and the incremental future supply.
Summary:
PENDLE reveals that a high buyback ratio cannot hedge against a shrinking revenue base; LIT suggests that full buybacks need to be evaluated together with the future linear unlock schedule. The market's attention is fixed on the Federal Reserve, but the more revealing signal this weekend came from the order book rather than the policy calendar. $BTC slipped below 80,000 during the day, touching roughly 79,200, and sellers braced for a faster slide. Buyers absorbed the move almost immediately, lifting price back into the 80,300–80,600 band. The failed breakdown matters more than the dip itself: it suggests demand remains anchored beneath 80,000 even as macro uncertainty builds. ThatBefore the interest rate decision week, bulls and bears are both enduring; 86% of the bulls have been wiped out, while my three positions are still in the green
Before the interest rate decision week, bulls and bears are both enduring. The entire network saw liquidations of 453 million in 24 hours, with bulls accounting for 86%. The macro expectation is to hold steady, but the shadow of a December rate hike remains. All three positions are still fully profitable.
$BTC (short) — Volatility narrows, a breakout is imminent
Entry 83111.9 / Mark 80362.99
Unrealized profit +558U (ROI +68.37%)
Stuck above 80,000 for 9 consecutive days, volatility has narrowed to 6%, a breakout is imminent. Defend near cost price, closely watch the 80,000 level: if it breaks down, look for space; if it stabilizes, take profits.
$XRP (short) — Whale retreat, selling pressure accumulates
Entry 1.4167 / Mark 1.2918
Unrealized profit +473U
Whales continue to reduce holdings, exchange reserves surged by 50 million in a week, selling pressure is huge. Nearly double profit, trailing stop locked in.
$ZEC (long) — Speculative expectations, capital divergence
Entry 1136.23 / Mark 1189.67
Unrealized profit +491U (ROI +89.79%)
NU7 upgrade scheduled for November 5, but Grayscale ETF redeemed over 110 million in October. Capital is speculating on expectations, take profits on highs without greed.
Summary:
Short positions reflect macro caution, ZEC longs reflect independent sentiment. Diversified positions and independent logic are the key to exiting safely. Without stabilization signals, don’t try to guess the bottom; protect your defense line.
#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ $BTC is about to make a big move!!!
This market really feels a bit eerie!
The earnings reports dragged down US tech stocks, and the Nasdaq took a nosedive,
then looking at BTC spot ETF net outflows of 635 million, and December rate hike expectations are rising again.
Bad news is piling up.
Last night’s fake break below 79700 liquidated longs once, definitely a bear trap.
But a bear trap doesn’t mean an immediate takeoff.
The weekly high was also a false breakout.
The dense trading zone between 82000–84000 has turned from support into resistance.
Funding rates are still relatively high.
Sunday is when emotions are most likely to run wild; are you waiting for direction now, or are you already itching to make a move?
To be blunt, heavy buying at this level is just providing liquidity to the market.
In the short term, I don’t think there will be a strong rebound; a low-level consolidation grind is more likely. Don’t mistake a single bounce for a reversal.
Until the dense zone between 82000–84000 is truly reclaimed, I’ll treat any rebound as just a recovery.
Are you more inclined to wait for direction now, or are you already ready to act? $ETH $IRYS
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Part 4
🔥 The most deceptive moment in history is when it looks like it's about to happen again!
📉 In the past four midterm election years, BTC has experienced significant pullbacks, and in some years, the cycle lows did occur after the voting. But this year's trend is not exactly the same; just because it happened historically doesn't mean it will definitely continue to fall after November 3rd.
🔍 A more realistic current observation is: first see if $80,000 can be reclaimed, then check if there is effective support around $79,000. If support is continuously lost, the $73,000–$75,000 range is the next key area to evaluate.
⚠️ Even if it reaches the so-called institutional cost zone, it may continue to decline; if it stabilizes early, there is no need to wait for a certain historical price level to act. Trading should follow market confirmation, not be bound by historical numbers.
Do you trust the election cycle more, or the real signals given by price and capital? #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $LINK
The extensive use of data services, why can't it replace cash flow yet?
In this morning's spot snapshot, LINK's 24-hour price change was -1.48%, ranging from 11.234 to 11.916 USDT.
The number of partnerships does not equal actual payments; actual payments also need to be transmitted to the token through settlement and rights mechanisms. Price correction must be examined separately from value capture.
If net fees and token demand grow together, valuation support is clearer; if only partnership titles increase without changes in economic rights, expected premiums should be lowered. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Market attention focuses on SK Hynix's Q3 earnings report. Although HBM4 has already entered mass production ramp-up, its shipments in Q3 are limited due to delays in customer new chip certifications and order pacing. The main profit driver this quarter is most likely still the long-term HBM3E contracts.
In the short term, HBM4 is unlikely to contribute significant incremental profits in Q3; the real profit elasticity will have to wait until Q4 and next year when customers' new AI chips scale up massively. At the same time, it still faces two major variables: Samsung's catch-up and HBM price competition. The story of HBM4 still needs time to unfold. Investment Comparison Review of QQQ and TQQQ Returns
Both products track the Nasdaq 100
But their launch dates are completely different
QQQ was listed on March 10, 1999
TQQQ was listed on February 11, 2010
If bought at the same starting point and held until now
Starting adjusted price: QQQ about $43.1
TQQQ about $0.22
Closing price on October 23, 2026
QQQ $704.4, up about 1534%
TQQQ $66.29, up about 30073%
Maximum drawdowns occurred between 2021 and 2022
QQQ about 35.6%, TQQQ about 81.8%
From peak to bottom about 13 months
QQQ took about 12 months to recover previous highs
TQQQ took about 24 months to recover previous highs
With the same starting point, investing $1 daily
About 4200 trading days, total investment about $4200
QQQ final value about $23,000
TQQQ final value about $190,000
A lump sum investment of $10,000
QQQ about $163,000
TQQQ about $3,010,000
Holding difficulty is much higher than the underlying asset itself
This does not constitute investment advice
Past performance does not represent future results ·Trading Perspective
#Ether
Ethereum (ETH) is stalled at $2,530, sliding alongside Bitcoin (($BTC)). We are no longer waiting for unrealistic macro pullbacks but are participating in related liquidity sweeps.
Here is the exact setup:
A drop of about 4% is expected to clear the mid-October low of $2,315 (SSL). This will perfectly rebalance the August daily FVG top directly to our year-to-date AVWAP bottom.
Therefore, watch for a wick down to $2,250 to trap late short sellers, but the daily candle body must close above $2,250.
If $2,530 is successfully reclaimed, the structure will return to bullish. Breaking through resistance from $2,585 to $2,685 is expected to open the path to $2,800 and even above $3,000.
Let retail be washed out below $2,315. We are bidding $2,250-$2,290 to reload pockets. $ETH The market can be summed up in one word: squeeze. The Federal Reserve, GDP, and PCE all cluster on Thursday, and tech giants' earnings reports join the fray. If you have positions, review your risk controls first. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Starting with macro. The Fed's rate decision comes early Thursday morning, with the market basically betting on no change, keeping the rate ceiling around 3.75%-4.00%. But the real impact comes from Waller's press conference—when he speaks, US Treasury yields and the dollar jump. Then on Thursday night, GDP and core PCE data drop together, with GDP expected at 3.2% and core PCE annualized at 3.1%. If these numbers come in strong again, the rate cut narrative will be pushed back, and growth stocks will face direct pressure on their discount rates. On earnings, Google and Microsoft report early Thursday, Amazon early Friday—all are tests of AI capital expenditure and cloud growth. I'm watching whether cloud revenue can support the massive capex; if not, valuations will be cut. Storage chains like SK Hynix and Samsung also join the scene, with HBM demand as a hard indicator. Don't ignore geopolitics. Brent crude closed at $116.7 on Friday, up 6 points for the week, and ships in the Strait of Hormuz dare not move freely. Israel's election lands on the 27th, and the geopolitical premium is already priced into oil. Hold your core energy stocks; be cautious chasing highs. This week is a double whammy of macro and earnings—don't heavily bet on direction before the data; adjust positions after Google and Microsoft report. #OctoberFOMCApproaching What variables remain for the Fed's pause on rate hikes? #BTCSpotETFFunds fluctuate, can market buying stabilize? #MiddleEastOri🔥The most deceptive moment in history is when it looks like it's about to happen again!
📉 In the past four midterm election years, BTC has experienced significant pullbacks, and in some years, the cycle lows did indeed occur after the vote. But this year's trend is not exactly the same, so we can't assume that after November 3rd it will inevitably continue to fall just because history has shown it before.
🔍 A more realistic current observation path is: first see if $80,000 can be reclaimed, then check if there is effective support around $79,000. If support is continuously lost, the $73,000–$75,000 range is the next key area to evaluate.
⚠️ Even if it reaches the so-called institutional cost zone, it may continue to decline; if it stabilizes early, there is no need to wait for a certain historical price level to act. Trading should follow market confirmation, not be bound by historical numbers.
Do you trust the election cycle more, or the real signals given by price and capital? #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Gold breaks below 4000: Not the end of the bull market, but a macro pricing shift
Spot gold is currently near $3995/oz, down over 4% last week, breaking below the 4000 mark for the first time since July.
Last week's review (macro perspective)
This round of decline is not due to the failure of safe-haven attributes, but a change in the pricing anchor: Middle East oil prices surged → inflation expectations reversed → market re-evaluated the Fed’s "higher for longer" interest rate path → real interest rates rose, liquidity was drained from the non-yielding asset gold. Coupled with AI tech stocks deleveraging, institutions sold gold for cash, representing a "double whammy" of interest rates and liquidity, not a fundamental collapse.
Mid-term underlying logic remains intact
• Central bank gold purchases are still accelerating: global central banks buy 750–1000 tons annually, China’s central bank has increased holdings for 23 consecutive months, de-dollarization is a strategic slow-moving variable
• Rate hike expectations are largely priced in, with limited room for upward revision
• UBS/Goldman Sachs and others still view the 4000 area as a mid-term accumulation zone, with allocation value rising during the pullback
Allocation advice
Don’t chase short-term; 4000 is resistance, wait for stabilization in the 3950–4000 range; mid-term use "staggered purchases + low premium targets (ETF/bars)" instead of all-in, keep position in the mid-single digits. Leveraged users should avoid naked positions around the Fed meeting (28th) this week.
Conclusion: Short-term oscillation seeking bottom, mid-term still a "monetary credit hedge asset," the pullback provides space for allocation. $XAU Over $400 million long positions on perpetual contracts are hanging on the liquidation line
Spot market is bleeding, perpetual contracts are holding firm. BTC dropped to 80,887, ETH to 2,365, but the perpetual funding rates remain positive at +0.00125% for both. Prices are falling, yet longs are still paying to hold positions—this is stubbornness, not strength.
$BTC and $ETH leverage are diverging. Within 24 hours, BTC open interest rose against the trend, with new positions still entering; ETH open interest sharply contracted, leverage is retreating. One is repositioning, the other is liquidating. In the long-short structure, BTC retail long-short ratio has fallen to 0.4861, dominated by shorts; large holders' long-short ratio is 0.77, neutral to long. ETH long-short ratio remains at 2.46, with bullish exposure not yet fully cleared.
Liquidation data shows who is bearing the pain. In 24 hours, total network liquidations reached about $578 million, with longs accounting for 91%; BTC liquidations were $235 million, ETH $184 million, mostly longs. A certain whale holds nearly $400 million in BTC+ETH long positions, with ETH liquidation price at 2,181 and BTC at 70,396. Last night, when ETH hit a low of 2,282, it was only $30 away from liquidation, forcing an emergency margin top-up. This whale's long position is hanging on the liquidation line, itself a catalyst for downside.
#With the October FOMC approaching, what uncertainties remain as the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes? NEAR is cutting token issuance by another 36%,
staking rewards are also reduced by 36%
The token price dropped 8% on the same day.
Why does the market first dump despite this positive supply cut?
Because stakers receive coin-denominated yields,
when yields are cut, they run first.
The deflation narrative can't save cash flow.
Do you think the supply cut should cause a price increase or decrease? $NEAR Evening Review
Today's two positions showed clear divergence: $BICO long position suffered a large floating loss, while HYPE long position had a small profit.
$BICO: The market dropped sharply by 5.94%, smart money traders' short positions dominated absolutely, with short profit ratio as high as 98.81%, and longs suffered widespread losses. I went 8x full position long, entry price 0.0349588, current price 0.01487, huge loss margin, margin ratio is already very low, clearly bottom-fishing against the trend, holding through the downtrend with no proper risk control on position and leverage.
$HYPE: The market rose slightly, smart money short positions were larger, but shorts were also in loss. I went 20x full position long, entry 73.897, current 75.72795, floating profit +46.56%, this trade caught the short-term direction correctly, but also with high leverage full position, posing significant risk.
Reflection and Summary:
Did not respect the trend signals from smart money; BICO was clearly a short-dominated market, subjective bottom-fishing was the core reason for the big loss.
Full position + high leverage mode has extremely low fault tolerance; even if one trade is right, the other being wrong causes severe capital drawdown, holding costs are too high.
No preset stop-loss boundaries before entry; after the drop, passively held the position, turning short-term speculation into passive deep loss.
Future Plan: Reduce leverage, eliminate full position operations; prioritize trading along the main direction of smart money, avoid bottom-fishing against the trend; set stop-loss in advance for every trade and strictly enforce it to control maximum loss per trade.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Under the market conditions where institutional funds are all on the sidelines playing it safe, the on-chain flows of the three DEX brothers have diverged, with $ASTER looking particularly bad:
$HYPE is still absorbing unlocks and profit-taking. There are quite a few on-chain buyers, for example, a whale accumulated over 200,000 tokens in a month.
HYPE's MA7 (78.75)/MA20 (82.54)/MA30 (84.81) are all pressing down overhead, RSI at 34.9 is weak but not oversold, 30-day position is -6.1% (breaking the lowest point within the month), monthly -16.6% showing a weak downward trend, with a small short-term rebound but no bullish reversal.
ASTER has stabilized after unlocking, but the circulating dilution has not been absorbed, with the top ten addresses still controlling over 90%.
ASTER’s three lines (MA7 0.7063/MA20 0.7048/MA30 0.7128) are all overhead but very close, deviating less than 2%. RSI at 46.6 is neutral, 30-day position at 22% is sideways in the mid-lower range of the month, representing a consolidation phase with moving averages converging and direction yet to be decided.
$UNI shows no accumulation signals on-chain, price is near the moving averages, and the only solid institutional entry is that compliant futures contract.
UNI’s three lines (MA7 7.10/MA20 7.37/MA30 7.95) are all pressing down and spreading apart, RSI at 30.8 has entered oversold territory, 30-day position at 3% is close to the monthly bottom. With a monthly drop of -31%, it is the worst performer among the three, lacking support and the weakest.Someone used $1.25 million with 25x leverage to short ETH without setting a stop loss. $ETH
Then, within two days, they were liquidated 9 times, leaving only $140,000, which they used to continue shorting.
Late at night on October 18, this person transferred $1.25 million into a new wallet. About an hour after the funds arrived, they opened a short position of over 13,000 ETH with full leverage.
They set a take-profit order, planning to close the position after ETH dropped about 20%, but did not set a stop loss. More than three hours after opening the position, ETH did drop, and their account once earned over $400,000.
However, ETH quickly rebounded, and on October 19 alone, they were liquidated 4 times.
They did not cut losses; instead, they added two more short positions. Some orders were rejected by the system due to insufficient margin.
On the evening of October 20, when the US stock market opened, ETH rallied, and within 8 minutes, they were liquidated 5 more times, wiping out all short positions.
From start to finish, they never closed a position themselves; $1.25 million was reduced to $140,000.
Two days later, they used the remaining $140,000 to open short positions again with 25x leverage, still without setting a stop loss.
This time, ETH moved down, and they temporarily earned a bit back, but if ETH rises about 3% again, they will be liquidated once more The core logic anchors on the transmission mechanism of cross-market systemic deleveraging. Recently, altcoins have been continuously plummeting, and panic sentiment is transmitted to BTC through the margin collateral chain. BTC, as the most liquid asset in the entire market, becomes the "liquidity outlet" prioritized for liquidation when institutions overall reduce risk exposure. Coupled with the decline in risk appetite in the US stock market and the sustained high yield of US Treasury bonds, the crypto market has entered a passive deleveraging cycle.
Opening a short position on $BTC at 82132.2 aligns with the trend of "indiscriminate selling under systemic deleveraging," rather than speculating on short-term news. The current mark is 80337.9, with a smooth bearish trend, but it is important to be clear: after panic positions are concentratedly released, the market is very likely to experience a technical oversold rebound.
The fault tolerance for 100x leverage approaches zero; even slight reverse fluctuations can wipe out all floating profits. From a professional perspective, the 218% floating profit has fully realized the logic. In terms of operation, do not be greedy for the last segment; it is recommended to take profits directly or keep only a very small base position, strictly adhering to risk control bottom lines. $ETH $SOL #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ SOL at the $100 mark: ETF outflows, whales turning to short selling
Solana is currently fluctuating around $100–103, with a 24-hour low of about $98.6, still testing the psychological support at $100 in the short term.
On the capital side, the US SOL spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $8.515 million on October 22, with Bitwise BSOL outflows of $5.7182 million, indicating weak short-term institutional buying.
Whale activity on-chain is even more worth watching: one address deposited 240,000 SOL to three exchanges within 24 hours, valued at about $25.3 million; another whale closed long positions and opened $10 million in short positions. This should not be simply interpreted as panic selling; it could be risk control, arbitrage, or contract hedging, but it does increase short-term pressure above.
The fundamentals are not bad. The Alpenglow upgrade has shortened final confirmation time to about 150 milliseconds; on-chain Q3 economic value is about $75.7 million, with DEX trading volume and stablecoin supply both growing. The issue is that a strong network does not mean the token will immediately rise; SOL is still affected by ETF outflows and BTC volatility.
In the short term, watch if $100 can hold; if it breaks, pay attention to around $98.6; resistance above is at $103–105, with stronger resistance at $108–109.
$SOL $BTC $ETH #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
"BlackRock ETF Tug-of-War: Bitcoin Holds at Eighty Thousand"
The inflows and outflows of Bitcoin ETF funds these past two days look like a roller coaster. Many think institutions are collectively retreating, but there's really no need to panic. This frequent movement mainly comes from Wall Street hedge funds closing out previous basis arbitrage positions.
As long as the price gap between futures and spot narrows, arbitrageurs will simultaneously sell spot ETFs and buy back short contracts, making the market appear to have large capital inflows and outflows.
The price hovers around $80,000, and the spot support is actually stronger than expected. Once this basis adjustment is complete, the buying side will naturally become clearer. $BTC Just bounced back to $2 billion, PEPE slid back to $1.91 billion in half a day.
Up 20.6% in a week, the strongest gainer in the top 100
During the same period, BTC only rose 1.2%, and the overall market fell 0.2%
24-hour trading volume is $483 million
The exchange rate against ETH rose 13% in a week, money is moving towards risk assets
But more and more PEPE is held on exchanges, $0.000005 is a threshold
I think this wave is FOMO testing the waters, not the start of altcoin season, observe but don’t chase; invalidation point is PEPE falling below $0.000004, or the weekly gain against ETH giving back half
Which side are you on: is this the start of Q4 altcoin season, or just a one-day trip?
$PEPE $ETH $BTC
#PEPE #Altcoins #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ The bottleneck of AI computing power is essentially memory bandwidth. The core focus of this SK Hynix Q3 is the fulfillment of HBM4 production capacity.
Long-term contract lock-in, HBM4 leading mass production, combined with continuous price increases in DRAM spot market, underpin AI server demand. Although the market worries that the new chip certification pace may disrupt short-term shipments, the proportion of high gross margin HBM products continues to rise, profit elasticity is sufficient, the probability of earnings exceeding expectations is relatively high, and the main theme of the storage super cycle remains unchanged#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
The October FOMC is very likely to pause rate hikes (about 90% probability), but there are underestimated variables behind this "consensus" in the market.
The core variable lies in the communication style of Federal Reserve Chair Powell. He explicitly refuses to provide forward guidance, causing the market to be unable to lock in the policy path in advance from his statements, and the basis for betting on a pause may already be outdated. Some economists believe that given the September CPI and PPI exceeding expectations and showing inflation stickiness, the probability of a rate hike in October is seriously underestimated, and the actual chance might be a 50-50 split.
Secondly, there is the expectation of a rate hike in December. Most institutions expect that even if there is no move in October, rate hikes may resume in December, and the October pause seems more like buying time to assess the impact of the Middle East situation on inflation. In addition, the political sensitivity brought by the midterm elections (only 6 days after the meeting) is also a potential consideration for the Fed's choice to "wait and see."
Therefore, a pause does not mean the end of tightening. The real variables lie in how Powell will pave the way for December's action and whether inflation data in the next two months will force the Fed to act earlier.Perpetual contracts: Over $400 million long positions pending liquidation line, spot market bleeding, perpetual contracts stubbornly holding: BTC 80887/ETH 2365, positive funding rate +0.00125%, paying fees despite price drop, persistent. Leverage diverges: BTC open interest rising inversely, new positions entering; ETH contracting, leverage withdrawing. BTC retail 0.4861, whales 0.77 short dominant; ETH still 2.46 biased long not cleared. 24h liquidation about 578 million, longs account for 91%; BTC 235 million/ETH 184 million both long. The climax whale: nearly $400 million BTC+ETH long positions, liquidation price 2181/70396, last night ETH touched 2282 just 30 away from the line, urgently adding margin. $400 million steel wire immediately triggers downside catalyst.Analysis: New long and short positions are simultaneously accumulating on BTC spot market, increased volatility may be imminent
BlockBeats reports that on October 25, market analyst Murphy stated that yesterday's market dip was driven by some chips pre-loaded onto trading platforms taking advantage of the weekend's low liquidity to exert pressure on the market. Notably, there is currently no sentiment expressed on-chain. Realized losses on Bitcoin have not increased but actually decreased.
A key factor here is that this happened over the weekend. Position adjustments by market makers, hedge funds, and other institutions will only occur on the next business day, Monday. So it can be simply understood that yesterday's short-term decline was driven solely by chips at the trading platform level. Since October 14, the open interest of perpetual contracts has been continuously accumulating, with no reduction in positions during each market pullback, and yesterday's decline also did not complete deleveraging. Currently, new positions are accumulating simultaneously on both long and short sides in the spot market, and it is highly likely that an amplified volatility event will occur next, with attention on which side will be triggered first. $BTC $ETH $SOL Watched $DOGE all day, and the more I look, the more it seems like it's slowly leaking air 🐶
Hourly highs: 08:00 at 0.07803, 13:00 at 0.0779, 15:00 at 0.07709, 16:00 at 0.07694, each one lower than the last. At 17:00 it hit 0.07591, now hovering around 0.0766 sideways. Volume is still among the top, interest is there, but buying can't keep up.
Last night it dropped sharply to 0.07469 on high volume, then only rebounded to 0.078 before stopping. Funding rate +0.001%, open interest about 93 million USD, shorts are not crowded.
My plan is to short on the rebound, not chase:
· Entry: 0.0770-0.0774 (breakdown at 13:00 + rebound peak at 15:00)
· Stop loss: 0.0782, if it climbs back above the morning range, admit the mistake
· Target 1: 0.0759 (today's low)
· Target 2: 0.0750 (near last night's spike low)
If it doesn't come back, so be it; if it breaks above 0.078 on volume, this trade is void. Dogecoin basically follows Bitcoin; if Bitcoin suddenly rallies, I'll exit first.
Here, are you waiting to short on the rebound, or do you think 0.075 is a buy?
Just my personal view, not investment advice, DYOR
#DOGE #ContractStrategy #Altcoins$ONDO
Product returns are stable, so why can the token still continue to fluctuate?
In this morning's spot snapshot, ONDO's 24-hour price change was -0.82%, ranging from 0.3966 to 0.4191 USDT.
The underlying asset returns do not automatically belong to token holders. If there is no direct connection between product scale, management income, and token equity, the price will still vary according to risk preferences.
If actual equity converts business growth into holding demand, it can improve revaluation judgments; if there is only scale expansion, token pullbacks cannot be directly interpreted as risk-free mispricing. In the past four midterm election cycles, $BTC has without exception declined—down 72% in 2010, 65% in 2014, 52% in 2018, and 27% in 2022. Even more painful is the fourth quarter: in three of the four midterm election years, the fourth quarter closed negative—down 16.7% in 2014, 42% in 2018, and 14.75% in 2022. With less than ten days until the November 3 voting day, this historical record is being repeatedly cited by the market. But what truly deserves caution is not the word "election" itself, but that it may act as a catalyst for price retesting the common cost zone. The bottoms of the bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022 all appeared after the elections—January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022, lagging the election day by 71, 38, and 13 days respectively. This year’s script has already changed: the bottom appeared early on July 1 at $57,850, 125 days before the election day; by October 22, the price had rebounded to $81,455, about 40% up from the bottom. The market has already priced in the "election bottom," and applying the old framework of "bottom only after the election" now is like carving a mark on a boat to find a sword. What really determines life or death is a cost line. Ali Charts points out that around $73,000 is close to the average buy-in cost of short-term holders; meanwhile, Strategy holds 848,000 $BTC at an average price of $75,446. These two forces are squeezed within the same range between $73,000 and $75,000 Custody ≠ Buying, ETP ≠ Buying Coins, Nodes ≠ Locked Positions: Debunking Core Institutional Narratives in One Article
Many communities like to list institutions such as BitGo, Valour, Figment, Kiln, Bitget, etc., portraying them as heavy capital holders or big players lying in wait. In reality, this is a set of easily confusing rhetoric traps.
Core DAO launched with a Fair Launch model, without first-tier VC private placements like a16z or Multicoin, so there are no institutional original chips locked at low prices. These partners are essentially service providers, not project shareholders, and the boundaries among the three must be clearly distinguished.
- Custody (BitGo, Cobo, Copper, Fireblocks): They only connect to Core's BTC staking channel, helping institutional clients custody Bitcoin and provide dual staking services, earning custody service fees. Custody platforms themselves have no obligation to continuously buy CORE or prop up the price; clients can choose to stake BTC, which does not equal allocating CORE.
- ETP Issuance (Valour): Valour has indeed issued CORE ETP and BTC staking ETP. The BTC staking ETP underlying asset is Bitcoin, merely leveraging Core's staking mechanism; the CORE ETP is a secondary market linked product, a financial product issuance business, and does not represent Valour's long-term active accumulation or locked positions in CORE.
The tug-of-war around $FIL Filecoin is a contradiction between long-term narrative and short-term liquidity.
Infrastructure deployment is progressing steadily, but token supply and chip structure suppress short-term flexibility.
Holding positions means enduring an indefinite period of slow decline and grinding; exiting means bearing the risk of missing out after the narrative is realized.
The market's difficulty has never been about judging direction, but about accepting that there is no perfect choice to simultaneously avoid missing out and drawdowns. Every trade-off essentially reflects one's own risk preference.214 million USD worth of ETH long positions are only 40 USD away from liquidation.
At 11:36 PM on October 24, two accounts held a combined total of 93,184 ETH long. Based on 214 million USD, the entry price is roughly 2296, the first liquidation line at 2256, and the second at 2227. This means a 1.7% drop hits the first line, and a 3% drop breaks both.
This is not a position retail investors can set up. Over 90,000 ETH stacked on the order book, the liquidation price itself forms a wall. If it really drops to 2256, the first forced liquidation order will directly turn into a sell order pushing the price down further, then trigger the second one, causing a cascade of selling and falling prices.
This happened just two weeks ago. On October 9, a giant whale on Hyperliquid was liquidated for 28,716 ETH, about 69.69 million USD, and 30 minutes later he added 10 million USDC to continue going long. Whether he will add more this time is unknown.
Right now, all eyes are on the 2256 mark. If it holds, he survives this round; if not, the order book will reveal the truth. Those holding over 90,000 ETH without reducing their positions are betting that no one can push the price down.🔥On October 25, it was reported that over the past three weeks, the altcoin market has overall performed weakly, with Ethereum's price pulling back about 15% and its market capitalization shrinking by approximately $54 billion. In the derivatives market, Binance's ETH open interest decreased by $1.3 billion in the past month, a drop of nearly 20%, falling to $5.7 billion; the total ETH open interest across the entire network also declined to $11.5 billion. This round of deleveraging was driven by a combination of price declines, chain liquidations, and traders actively closing positions to reduce risk. Looking back to July this year, Ethereum also experienced a more severe contraction in open interest, followed by stabilization and a rebound with gains exceeding 32%, with the price briefly surpassing $2800.The Federal Reserve will hold the FOMC meeting on October 27-28. The current mainstream market expectation is still to keep interest rates unchanged, but the probability of a "pause in rate hikes" has already declined. The latest PMI data provides direct support for this change. The preliminary October S&P Global Composite PMI reached 57.6, and the Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.0, hitting a 53-month high, indicating that U.S. economic activity remains strong. More strikingly, the increase in corporate selling prices reached the fastest pace since August 2022, showing that inflation stickiness is still evident. With a hot economy and rising prices, the market is beginning to reassess: can the Federal Reserve really afford to stand still? Is there still a possibility of another rate hike in December? For the crypto community, this directly relates to risk appetite. In recent times, $BTC has become unusually sensitive to macro data. High interest rates, a strong dollar, and persistent U.S. Treasury yields all suppress the performance of risk assets. Especially the flow of funds into spot ETFs often shows significant fluctuations when macro expectations change. If this FOMC statement or Powell's remarks lean hawkish—emphasizing inflation risks and hinting at a December rate hike option—short-term funds are very likely to choose to wait and see or even withdraw, increasing the pressure on BTC immediately. Conversely, if the Federal Reserve ultimately chooses to pause and adopts a relatively mild tone, acknowledging strong economic activity but considering inflation controllable, the market may breathe a sigh of relief, and risk assets could see a phase of recovery. However, based on current data, such a "mild pause" is difficult to achieve Can SanDisk's high growth continue? There is a very specific test in the October 29 earnings report: beyond price, how much can shipments still contribute?
The company's last earnings report disclosed that quarterly revenue grew about 51% quarter-over-quarter, with roughly one-third coming from increased sales volume and two-thirds from price increases. This breakdown is more useful than just looking at the growth rate alone.
The improvement brought by price hikes is certainly real revenue and indicates that the supply and demand conditions at the time favored the company. But if price increases slow down in the future, whether revenue can maintain rapid growth will depend more on actual shipments and product mix.
I am particularly looking forward to the continued expansion of the data center business. It has already become an important growth direction for the company, but customer deployment timing, purchasing rhythms, and product introductions may cause quarterly performance fluctuations.
So this time, I won't just compare performance against expectations; I will also look at where the growth is coming from and whether the guidance for the next quarter provides new basis.
Especially when the stock price already reflects many optimistic views, impressive historical numbers may not be enough. The market may be more concerned about whether the company can continue to exceed original expectations going forward.
I am optimistic about AI storage demand but do not want to budget future quarters based on last quarter's price increase pace. Growth that comes from selling more products to customers who truly need them while maintaining reasonable profits is the kind of growth that makes me willing to hold longer.
#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ #三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓 Samsung's preliminary Q3 results are a "profit nuclear bomb": operating profit of 107.4 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 782.5%, breaking the 100 trillion KRW mark for the first time in history. But the numbers themselves are no longer a secret; the highlight of the full financial report lies in the "quality" and structure of the profits.
The driving force is highly concentrated: DRAM average prices rose about 17% quarter-on-quarter, NAND rose 18%, combined with HBM shipments increasing nearly 50% quarter-on-quarter, the semiconductor division (DS) operating profit exceeded 110 trillion KRW, higher than the total profit of the entire company. On the other hand, the mobile and home appliance division (DX) suffered a loss of over 1 trillion KRW, and the loss widened quarter-on-quarter — the money earned from storage price increases on the DS side was largely eaten up by higher component costs on the DX side. The same company, two divisions, two different fates.
More importantly, both profit and revenue were slightly below the most optimistic market expectations, and the stock price fell rather than rose after the earnings announcement. This indicates that the market's threshold for "exceeding expectations" has been pushed to the extreme, and any marginal flaw will be magnified.
The full financial report needs to verify three questions: how much of the DS division's excessive profits come from sustainable pricing power rather than one-time inventory replenishment; whether DX losses will further erode overall profitability in Q4; and whether HBM4 volume growth can take over as the next profit engine before capital expenditure pressures become apparent. The 8-fold growth speed itself is not in doubt; the real divergence lies in the quality and sustainability of the profits.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ The core contradiction in SK Hynix's Q3 earnings report lies in the fact that the strong profit for the quarter is already a "known quantity," and whether HBM4 can become a profit accelerator is where the market diverges. Citi expects Q3 operating profit of 81.3 trillion KRW, exceeding market consensus by 8%, driven mainly by a 28% quarter-on-quarter increase in DRAM average prices, a 24% rise in NAND, and AI inference demand boosting traditional storage. This means HBM4 is not the main reason for the profit exceeding expectations this quarter—the real support comes from the general storage price increase cycle.
There are indeed positive signals for HBM4: SK Hynix has mass-produced and shipped 12-layer HBM4 to Nvidia, priced at about $560, more than 50% higher than HBM3E, and has secured about 70% share of Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform. If volume ramps up smoothly, HBM4's significant contribution to revenue is expected to start reflecting from Q4, but "noise" is also real. Korean media pointed out that due to Nvidia Rubin chip launch delays and certification tuning setbacks, Q3 HBM4 shipments still fell short of initial expectations, with broker consensus having been downgraded by 5.6% over nearly three months. Samsung's HBM share rebounded from 21% to 33%, yield rose to about 80%, and competition is tightening again. HBM4 can boost profits in the mid-term, but the Q3 report itself mainly confirms the resilience of the traditional storage cycle. The real highlight is not the profit figure for the quarter, but management's statements on the HBM4 mass production pace and Q4 shipment guidance—that is the key variable determining the slope of profit acceleration. 🔥 Evening Report for October 25 This round of deleveraging is driven jointly by price declines, cascade liquidations, and traders proactively closing positions to reduce risk. Looking back to July this year, Ethereum also experienced a more intense contraction in open interest, followed by stabilization and a rebound with gains exceeding 32%, with the price briefly breaking above $2800. Deleveraging is part of the market adjustment process, often accompanied by panic sentiment, and may also appear at the end of an adjustment cycle.
Over the past three weeks, the altcoin market has generally been weak, with Ethereum's price pulling back about 15%, and market capitalization shrinking by approximately $54 billion. In the derivatives market, Binance's ETH open interest has decreased by $1.3 billion in the past month, a drop of nearly 20%, down to $5.7 billion; the total ETH open interest across the entire network has fallen to $11.5 billion. The core logic anchors on the extreme token supply structure of $IRYS. As a programmable data chain with a total supply of 1 billion, the current circulation rate is only about 20%. The previously low circulating supply triggered a short squeeze rally, but the implicit selling pressure "faucets" on October 25 (about 74.37 million tokens) and November 25 (large unlocks by the team and investors) are already on a countdown.
Opening a short at 0.08585 is to short "chip realization under the expectation suppression of unlocks."
Currently at 0.0662, the market is very light, so be vigilant against market makers reversing to squeeze shorts. With rich floating profits on 10x leverage, be sure to move stop profits. ROBINHOOD CHAIN: LENDING GROWS AS DEX VOLUME FALLS
DEX volume dropped 30% to $6.35B, while DeFi TVL climbed to $1.058B. Morpho held $486.8M in open loans, showing lending is becoming a major use case. Yet despite $417K in borrower payments, Morpho recorded zero protocol revenue.
#HOODQ3TradingGrowth $ENA
Ethena highlights a central question in synthetic-dollar markets: can attractive yield mechanisms remain competitive across different market environments? The protocol’s synthetic-dollar model depends on the performance and risk management of its underlying strategies, not simply demand for dollar-denominated assets. Funding-rate changes, collateral quality, and redemption confidence deserve as much attention as supply growth when assessing its resilience.Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the Litecoin mining pool, responded to the reason for only holding ETH in this round by stating that RWA is the most important social value of blockchain, and Ethereum will directly benefit from this trend. He believes that the biggest risk to Bitcoin is not quantum attacks, but the lack of actual usage demand. As global funds from markets like the US stock market enter the crypto market, Bitcoin's future upside potential may gradually shrink. If long-term returns cannot outperform the Nasdaq, holders may continue to exit, turning the previously price-driven holding demand into a negative cycle. The future Q-Day, when quantum computing attacks become a reality, may become the turning point for Bitcoin's decline from its peak. $BTC #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $ZEC
I don't consider this round of ZEC as just speculative hype ending; the money is genuinely flowing in.
The correct numbers: Grayscale's ZEC ETF saw a single-day inflow of $20.52 million on October 23, marking the fourth consecutive day of positive inflows, totaling $41.1 million for the week, which completely reversed the outflows from the previous three weeks. On the price side, OKX spot was tested at 1187, up 2.8% in 24 hours, with a high of 1225 and a low of 1119. By the way, some foreign media reported a 7% rise to 1355, but that doesn't match the exchange's actual data; I go by the exchange's figures.
On the other hand, the NU7 upgrade is scheduled for November 5, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. Zebra 7.0.0 has already been released; nodes that don't upgrade will drop off the chain.
With funds returning and the upgrade looming at the door, these two events combined over a week make me bullish. But until the intraday high of 1225 is broken, I'll just watch without taking action.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Bitcoin’s four previous midterm-election years all delivered losses: 72% in 2010, 65% in 2014, 52% in 2018 and 27% in 2022. Three of those four fourth quarters were also negative — down 16.7%, 42% and 14.75%. With election day on November 3 now less than ten days away, that record is doing a lot of psychological work. But the more useful reading is structural rather than seasonal: past bear-market bottoms arrived after the vote, in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022, respectively 71, Perpetual contracts have over $400 million long positions hanging on the liquidation line
Spot market is bleeding, perpetual contracts are holding firm. BTC dropped to 80,887, ETH to 2,365, but the funding rates for both perpetuals remain positive at +0.00125%. Prices are falling, yet longs are still paying to hold positions—this is stubbornness, not strength.
Leverage for $BTC and $ETH is diverging. Within 24h, BTC open interest rose against the trend, with new positions still entering; ETH open interest sharply contracted, leverage is withdrawing rather than increasing. One is repositioning, the other is clearing positions. In the long-short structure, BTC retail long-short ratio has fallen to 0.4861 with many liquidations; large holders’ ratio is 0.77, flat longs watching, shorts dominating. ETH long-short ratio remains at 2.46, bullish exposure not yet fully cleared.
Liquidation data points to who is bearing the pain. In 24h, total network liquidations were about $578 million, with longs accounting for 91%; BTC liquidations were $235 million, ETH $184 million, all contributed by longs. A certain whale holds nearly $400 million in BTC+ETH long positions, with ETH liquidation price at 2,181 and BTC at 70,396. Last night, when ETH hit a low of 2,282, it was only $30 away from liquidation, forcing an urgent margin top-up. This whale’s long position hanging on the liquidation line itself is a catalyst for the downside.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $BTC
It's been sideways for nine days now, but does it really count as sideways?
The news flash says BTC has been in a narrow range for 9 consecutive days. I quickly checked the actual data: OKX spot is currently at 80325, with a 24-hour high of 81070 and a low of 79220, amplitude 2.3%. Actually, it dipped below 80,000 in the middle; the perpetual contract bottomed at 79168, but the news headline says "Holding the $80,000 institutional cost line" — whether it broke or not depends on which numbers you look at, headlines always pick the nicest way to say it.
I used to fall for this, copying headlines and posting them, only to be contradicted by people showing real-time screenshots. Since then, I always verify the numbers myself.
After nine days of grinding, those who cut losses left early, and those who stayed are not moving. I usually take this kind of quiet as a prelude to a breakout, but I don't guess when or which direction it will go. At the 80,000 level, I’m not taking sides; I’ll let it make the first move.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ I usually don't post about US stocks in the crypto circle, but I've been paying attention. Just now, an elder brother said he wanted to hear my analysis of US stocks, so I boldly offer some of my own views.
First, for the entire US tech sector (storage, semiconductors), I'll give a basic definition: possibly until mid-2027, US tech stocks will remain in a volatile correction trend.
The logic is simple: US Treasury yields remain high. In the long term, US Treasury yields keep hitting new highs, while the probability of rate hikes rises. If you are capital, you will definitely put your money in a place with low risk and high returns, which is the bond market.
The stock-bond seesaw describes this situation. Only when US Treasury yields return to normal levels can we say there is a possibility of liquidity recovery in the stock market.
Secondly, this round of sell-off is somewhat a good thing; it suppresses everyone's FOMO emotions, kills the AI bubble down to a reasonable valuation range, and most importantly, wipes out leverage.
Once the previous internet bubble appears, prices were all pushed up by leverage. When any external shock occurs, the entire financial market will be in chaos, and neither you nor I can escape unscathed. At that time, it will be another Great Depression requiring decades to recover.
Having talked about the macro market, regarding currently better individual stocks, how to choose? For example, $MU and $SNDK.
Simply put, for short-term speculative pursuit, choose SanDisk for flexibility, although I do not support speculation; for long-term value investment, choose $MU with a deeper moat.
Not enough space, will explain in the next post! A sharp drop is coming, keep your bullets ready, no rush.
$BTC has been hovering around 80,000 for a few days, with each rebound peak lower than the last. It just broke 80,000 yesterday, and even with support, it only rose a little; the bulls are clearly weak.
The midterm election years historically don’t look good: 2014 dropped 16.7%, 2018 dropped 42.2%, 2022 dropped 14.8%.
From the 87,000 high, a 15% drop is about 73,950, roughly 74,000.
You can start buying in batches around 76,000, but around 73,000 is more critical — the 200-day moving average and short-term holder cost lines overlap here.
Don’t rush to jump in; wait until the structure stabilizes before making a move.