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First, let's clear the accounts from the previous round. Three trades: ETH short, opened at 2,397.03, current price 2,367.66, profit 1.23%; ZEC short, opened at 1,215.92, current price 1,219.15, loss 0.27%; BNB long, opened at 739.55, current price 747.95, profit 1.14%. Among the three trades, two were in the right direction, with a hit rate of 67%, and none hit the take profit or stop loss. Data as of 2026-10-25 12:45 (Beijing time). For the ZEC trade, the 0.27% loss stands; I won't change my stance. I set the stop loss at 1,250.19; if triggered, I'll report the number, if not, I'll keep holding. The two most debated issues this round are: First, money: On October 22, overseas spot products saw a net outflow of 636 million USD, and on the 23rd another 138 million USD, totaling 774 million USD in two days. Considering the entire network's daily new output of 450 coins, this equals 21 days' worth of production being sold off at once. Second, price: The price once dropped below 80,000, and within four hours, 404 million USD worth of long positions were liquidated. Normally, such a market should be shorted. Instead, I only go long, not because I think the price has bottomed out, but because there's something off in the data. Let me explain what I see as off. On October 22, the US stock market saw interest rates falling and oil prices surging — this combination indicates the market is betting on stagflation, not recession. In stagflation, the first to be sold off are high-leverage stories, and the first to be bought back are assets with cash flow. In the same week, the premium index on major US platforms dropped to -0.I'm not chasing this round; the market is moving sideways, chasing in just means working for the fees.
BTC just touched 80844, with a rise of only 0.02%, basically no movement. Open interest still rose by 0.69%, topping 53.9 billion, with only 175 million liquidated.
ETH is hovering around 2364, down 0.63%, open interest shrank by 3.12%, remaining at 29.8 billion, with 158 million liquidated.
SOL is fluctuating around 102.5, down 0.06%, open interest shrank by 0.53%, remaining at 6.2 billion, with 23.88 million liquidated.
Looking at options is where it gets interesting. In BTC options open interest, calls account for 59.49%, puts only 40.51%, so positions are still betting on a rise.
But the 24-hour volume is reversed: puts account for 57.41%, calls only 42.59%.
Holding positions betting on a rise, but trading volume buying puts—these are not actions by the same people.
One group holds long positions and doesn't leave; another group spends money buying puts as insurance or simply betting on a drop.
What I read is caution, not a flip; the bullish side hasn't dispersed yet, but the bearish side has already started spending money to bet.
Existing positions and new money are inherently different; open interest is past bets placed, volume is new money spent today.
New money is moving to the bearish side, old money hasn't left yet, the market hasn't broken support, but sentiment has already split.
So my move this round is just one word: wait.
Wait until the bearish intent in volume dissipates, or the bullish intent in open interest loosens, then it's not too late to act.
Stand by in place, no signal yet, just hold on, don't point the gun at your own people.$ATOM Core judgment on holding ATOM in the later stage: there are trump cards, but it takes time to realize
The underlying logic supporting continued holding is strengthening, but the pace of realization is slower than the market expects.
The ATOM tokenomics reform has entered a substantive phase. Cosmos Hub switched to a fee-driven buyback and burn model in August 2026, changing from "only increasing without decreasing" to "both increasing and decreasing." The Osmosis merge proposal clearly cancels new ATOM minting and instead uses DEX protocol revenue for buybacks on the open market, capped at 2.5% of the total supply. Inflation parameters are also being discussed to be lowered from 7%-10% to 4%-8%, with some proposals advocating for a minimum parameter as low as 0%.
Institutional use cases are moving from pilot to production. Cosmos has launched a partner network with 17 institutions (including BitGo, Galaxy Digital), and Wells Fargo plans to launch a cross-border tokenized deposit platform based on Cosmos technology in fall 2026.
There are new highlights in the technical narrative: IBC v2 light client is about to enter production deployment, aiming to connect Solana and all EVM/L2 chains; the ecosystem is also exploring programmable RWA index products based on IBC.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 🎪 Sunday noon, three small coins each with their own concerns
$TRUMP 1.653, political meme waiting for events 🎭
Fixed supply, no company profits, price depends on external figure news and hype. Up 0.67% today, volume 64.1 million, active among memes. Once the event window passes, order book thins out, don’t mistake the rebound for a trend.
$BOME 0.0006171, meme points slightly up today 📉
Meme citation relationships made into on-chain points, adding a layer of retention beyond pure air coins. Up 1.53% today, volume 3.17 million. Light market cap, a small bounce triggers borrowing and selling, don’t chase without new stories.
$WLD 0.4649, identity network token 🧑💼
Uses iris scanning to establish a globally unique identity, WLD is the ecosystem governance and incentive token. The 0.46 market bets on whether identity networks can succeed in the AI era, but biometric privacy controversies persist, volatility is higher than mainstream coins.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $NEAR plunged to 4.243 at 10 PM last night, then climbed back to around 4.49 today, but I think it's not done yet.
Some numbers to mention: 24h is still -3.6%, current price 4.495; since 10/23, it has been stepping down from 5.0, with each rebound peak lower than the last. Today's rebound peak is 4.53, just below the small platform from 6–7 PM last night. Funding rate is slightly negative (-0.009%), shorts are not few, so I’m not chasing shorts, waiting for it to bounce up on its own.
My plan 👇
Direction: short on rebound
Entry 4.56–4.59 (the segment broken at 3–4 PM yesterday, now resistance)
Stop loss 4.665 (above the high at 3 PM yesterday, if it breaks above, structure changes)
Target 1: 4.43 (several probes to the bottom today around here)
Target 2: 4.30 (near last night’s spike area)
Close half at Target 1, move stop loss to breakeven for the rest.
What if it goes wrong: if the hourly candle breaks and holds above 4.66 with volume, this trade is invalidated, no hard holding; if it fails to bounce and breaks below 4.42, I won’t chase either, better to miss out.
What do you think, is NEAR forming a bottom or continuing a downtrend?
#NEAR #ContractStrategy #Altcoins
Just personal opinion, not investment advice, DYORAbout $498 million worth of liquidations occurred across the entire network in the past 24 hours 💥. According to Coinglass data: long positions were about $340 million, short positions about $158 million; BTC longs about $81.34 million, shorts about $12.51 million; ETH longs about $50.55 million, shorts about $13.26 million. At the time of writing, BTC is around 80919, ETH around 2383 📉.
Personally, I see that the losses on the long side are clearly the majority, which looks more like a concentrated clearing after leverage overheating rather than shorts being squeezed 🧹. The total liquidation of $498 million is indeed eye-catching, but I pay more attention to the long positions of $340 million: it better reflects the extent of leveraged chasing being cleaned out. If the long positions continue to decline and prices gradually stabilize, the clearing may be nearing its end; if longs remain high, volatility might not be over yet ⚠️. Are you more concerned about the total liquidation or the long positions? 🤔 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$IRYS large buy cost decreased, sell cost increased. Simulated buy/sell slippage for 100k scale changed from 2.47%/1.36% to 2.03%/1.56%. Asymmetric change, only discussing execution not direction.
$APR large buy and sell costs both decreased. Simulated buy/sell slippage for 100k scale dropped from 2.01%/1.72% to 1.73%/1.29%. Depth improved, feasibility of large orders increased.
$AKE large buy cost decreased. Simulated buy slippage for 100k scale dropped from 1.44% to 1.10%. Depth is improving, same order size is cheaper now. This address currently holds nearly $400 million worth of $ETH and $BTC long positions, and has just added 9.21 million USDT to push the liquidation prices of two ETH positions to $2,181 and $2,177, which is just above the 200-day moving average. In other words, one of the largest long holders on-chain and the longest-term moving average are aligned at the same level. This is also why Ajian mentioned this information: adding margin essentially only postpones the liquidation risk and does not create buying pressure; instead, it acts as a downward pull, while the upward resistance is the $2,484 short concentration area. From the current price, the shorts are closer, so it is more likely to first sweep upwards before going down. This is not a prediction, just a probability structure.
That is all, DYOR#Can Robinhood's trading business growth continue? The upcycle in the storage sector is not over yet. The industry cycle peak is expected around 2028? The stock market usually anticipates industry trend changes in advance, so the market peak is expected by mid-2027. Several global giants (including domestic Changxin and Changcun) are aggressively expanding production capacity, with capacity release expected in 2028-2029. $SKHYNIX $KORU $SOXL $RE
Real-world asset tokenization is often presented as a bridge between traditional finance and blockchain infrastructure. Re operates in this broader tokenization landscape, where legal ownership, asset transparency, and reliable settlement are fundamental questions. Digitizing an asset does not automatically make it liquid or remove regulatory complexity. The long-term opportunity depends on whether tokenized products solve practical problems for investors and issuers while maintaining clearDamn, 106 BTC orders are set at 82,000, and people below are still waiting for a breakout, while some above are already waiting to sell. According to this order book, the near-term sell orders exceed buy orders by 50%. BTC is hovering around 80,700, looking like it's just one push away from breaking through. Only when it really kicks up will we know how much supply is behind the door.
But I don't believe a single screenshot of an order can determine the market. Who wouldn't place big orders? The real test is whether someone will actually buy at 82,000, whether those 106 BTC get eaten up or not. Don't be fooled by a lively buy side when the sell orders haven't decreased at all.
At this level, I don't want to reach out recklessly. It hasn't dropped down, but it's also capped by sell orders above. After opening, it jumps back and forth by dozens of points, and in the end, the profit isn't even worth the frustration.
If it really pulls up to 81,800–82,000 but can't break through and falls back to 81,800, I'll try a small short position, admit a mistake at 82,300, aim to take profit at 81,000, and then watch 80,500 and 80,000. If it doesn't reach those levels, forget it—I don't want to chase shorts at 80,700 and stand guard for those sellers above.
If 82,000 is directly broken through and closes above on the 1-hour chart, and there's a pullback to 81,800–82,000 with buyers stepping in, then I'll cancel the short plan, take a small long position, set a stop loss at 81,500, and target 82,800 and 83,500. The most annoying thing is chasing right after a breakout, cutting losses when it dips back, and then it rallies again. This weekend, I'd rather do fewer trades and first see if those 106 BTC actually get sold. I don't want to have my position ready only for the orders to be withdrawn.Don't be fooled by those mainstream coins; after last night's flash drop, they recovered, making it seem like the trend has strengthened. In reality, we are still in a weak cycle:
$BTC current price has returned above 80,000, but it remains stuck below the bearish structure of MA7 (81972)/MA20 (82602)/MA30 (83155).
The reason for last night's initial drop was: BTC spot ETF had net outflows of about $773 million over two consecutive days; the entire market saw $837 million in leveraged long positions forcibly liquidated (accounting for 82.8%); Arthur Hayes publicly liquidated positions combined with thin weekend liquidity amplified the crash.
However, after panic selling cleared, bottom-fishing funds pushed BTC price back to 80,000.
$ETH dropped to about 2320, a nearly two-month low, with RSI at 31.8 entering oversold territory, all three moving averages (MA7 2397/MA20 2458/MA30 2535) pressing overhead, and a 30-day position of only 3.5%, making it the weakest technically among the three.
This is because ETH spot ETF had net outflows over 14 trading days this month, weekly net outflows of $220 million, and cumulative flight of $1.175 billion.
$ZEC rebounded from a low of 1119 to 1210, standing above MA7 (1199) but still suppressed by MA20 (1216)/MA30 (1291).
RSI at 41.3 is not oversold, and the 30-day position at 25% represents a technical rebound after a sharp drop. The main cause of the crash was concentrated forced liquidation of ZEC leveraged long positions, with a single hour seeing $4.85 million in long liquidations accounting for 98% of the entire market at that time.SpaceX’s reported use of a special-purpose entity for roughly $40B in Nvidia chips puts financing structure at the center of its AI plans. Keeping related debt off its balance sheet may preserve flexibility, yet volatile AI credit markets could still slow pricing talks. The unresolved funding cost will help determine how quickly expansion can proceed.
#SpaceX40BAIFinancing # The upcycle in the storage sector is not over yet. The industry cycle peak is expected around 2028? The stock market usually anticipates industry trend changes in advance, so the market peak is expected by mid-2027. Several global giants (including domestic Changxin and Changcun) are aggressively expanding production capacity, with capacity release expected in 2028-2029. $SKHYNIX $KORU $SOXL $BTC, the world's largest "coin hoarding company," actually sold coins this summer.
Strategy's own disclosed 8-K:
⬇️ From the end of June to early August, sold about 6,900 coins in 4 batches, average price $59,000–$64,000
⬆️ On 8/31, bought back 4,603 coins at an average price of $80,318
Selling low and buying high, a difference of nearly $20,000 per coin.
Selling coins is not bearish; it's to pay preferred stock dividends and repurchase preferred stock. This is what the 10/29 financial report should really be watched for:
Q3 estimated digital asset revenue is $20.9 billion, which comes from coin prices;
But preferred stock dividends must be paid on time, relying on real cash.
When coin prices fall, "only buying and not selling" must give way to cash flow.
Information compiled, not investment advice | Source: Strategy 8-K#Strategy earnings preview: BTC book gains rebound significantly $SPCX I'll put it this way: 1.2 billion shares will be unlocked on the 22nd, and 300 million on the 25th. The previous 1.2 billion won't be absorbed within 3 days. Adding tonight's 300 million unlocked shares during the US daytime, a total of 1.5 billion shares are unlocked. This can be understood as the shareholders are watching or waiting for the rocket stock's peak to sell and gain higher profits. This aligns well with the psychology of white Americans. So today's surge is driven by investors' enthusiasm and the excitement from Musk's rocket launch on the 23rd. When will these 1.5 billion shares be liquidated? I'll tell you, maybe as soon as next Tuesday, the 27th, there will be a large-scale drop. The market sentiment is bearish. Even if it rises today or tomorrow, it's just pushed up by enthusiasm. Essentially, the sudden rise and fall will later be pulled back to the average level. Before the earnings report, the average was 140. One earnings report pushed it above 160, then it fell to a low of 143, then the market digested it and lifted it near 150. But don't forget, 140 is the average. So after these two waves of enthusiasm, plus the impact of 1.5 billion shares, it will fall or break below 140. Next Tuesday will be the starting point of the decline, and it will break below 140. Because Americans don't really have a saving mentality. They will liquidate immediately. Bitcoin and Ethereum Retrace Support, Recovery Foundation Still Unstable
As of now, Bitcoin is at $80,900 and Ethereum at $2,370, both having recovered somewhat from this week's lows, but their situations after retracing to support levels are not equal.
$BTC spot ETF net inflow this week is $301.2 million, ending two consecutive weeks of outflows, but the sustainability of the recovery is questionable. $80,000 remains the key dividing line between bulls and bears; holding it maintains the oscillation range between $79,200 and $81,100, while losing it points to the next reference level near $77,876.
$ETH is weaker. October spot ETF cumulative net outflows have continued for four weeks. The $2,300 to $2,313 area is currently the most critical demand zone. ETH is just a step away from retracing from $2,370 down to this area; if it breaks below effectively, $2,200 and even $2,000 will come into view.
On the macro level, the FOMC meeting (October 27–28) and September PCE data (October 29) are back-to-back, Brent crude oil remains above $116, and overall risk appetite is under pressure.
$80,000 and $2,300 are two clear observation anchors: if BTC holds, it will oscillate and recover; if ETH holds, it retains the possibility of a rebound; if either fails, the retracement is not over. Weekend liquidity is thin, so direction confirmation should wait for next week's macro events.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ In October, about 1.18 billion was dumped, and only about 4.35 million was slightly bought back on Friday. I consider this $ETH inflow just a light drizzle.
On 10/23 Eastern Time, the spot ETH ETF net inflow was about 4.35 million USD, with Fidelity roughly supporting about 3.58 million and Morgan Stanley about 770,000, marking the third net inflow in October.
But don’t rush to celebrate: after dumping about 110.6 million in a single day on Thursday, according to Decrypt’s data, the cumulative outflow in October has already reached about 1.18 billion. The money on Friday can’t even cover a fraction of Thursday’s single-day outflow.
OKX is currently around 2369, with a 24-hour high of about 2384 and a low of about 2283. The price hasn’t surged due to this small inflow; it looks more like noise within the market’s fluctuations.
I acknowledge that institutions occasionally add some positions, but I don’t believe the capital flow has reversed in October. Let’s first see if the 2283–2300 range can hold; only after reclaiming around 2380–2400 should we reconsider. If the 4-hour candle closes below about 2283, I’ll look toward around 2200.
Do you think this inflow marks a turning point, or should it still be regarded as a recovery within a month of heavy outflows?
$ETH
#MarketTalkTodayU.S. stock markets were closed, but the crypto space remained active. On Saturday, BTC briefly dropped to around $79,280. Within just 4 hours, the entire market saw liquidations totaling approximately $436 million, with long positions accounting for $404 million. I believe there are three signals in this downturn that deserve special attention. ① ETF funds are continuously withdrawing, institutional buying is cooling down. The U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $635 million on Thursday and continued with $138 million outflow on Friday, totaling over $770 million in two days. However, the entire week still recorded a net inflow of about $305 million, indicating that funds are not completely withdrawing. ETH’s situation is weaker, with spot ETFs seeing a net outflow of about $221 million this week. Whether institutional funds can flow back is an important indicator to watch next week. ② High oil prices, both U.S. stocks and crypto face macroeconomic pressure. Last Friday, the Nasdaq fell 0.21%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.52%, and the Dow Jones declined 1.23%. Brent crude closed at $116.72, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.99%. Rising oil prices may reinforce inflation expectations, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. But if energy supply risks ease, the market may revise interest rate expectations again. ③ Weekend liquidations indicate that leverage risk has not yet been fully released. Within 4 hours on Saturday, long position liquidations exceeded $400 million, with ETH liquidation size particularly notable relative to its market cap. The most dangerous aspect of this market is that price drops trigger forced liquidations, which in turn amplify the decline. However, it is also important to note that after concentrated deleveraging, if selling pressure weakens, the market may also experience a rapid先一句话结论：有概率营收、云业务小幅超一致预期，但利润和自由现金流是最大拖累，就算数字超预期，盘后也未必涨 财报时间：预计10月28日（周三）发布Q3 2026财报 ✅ 支撑超预期的利好 1. 搜索广告韧性很强，AI搜索（AI Overviews）没有吃掉广告，反而带动购物广告变现，零售广告需求稳定，是谷歌基本盘； 2. GCP云是最大看点，企业AI算力、Gemini企业版订单持续饱满，前两季连续大幅高于预期，积压订单充足； 3. YouTube广告+订阅（Premium/Google One AI套餐）保持稳定增长，订阅用户增量不错。 ⚠️ 压制预期的风险（市场最敏感） 1. 巨额资本开支是核心痛点，已经上调全年资本开支至1950–2050亿美金，算力投入持续砸钱，二季度自由现金流甚至转负；就算收入超，利润率、现金流很容易不及想象； 2. 竞争压力：微软Azure、亚马逊AWS抢AI云客户，广告端也持续分流； 3. 股权公允价值收益（之前拉高EPS的一次性项）不稳定，这个属于不可持续收益，市场现在已经不把它当成核心业绩。 📌 市场现在看什么（比单纯营收更重要） ① GCP营收增Macro liquidity is tightening, and it is not discriminating between assets. The Middle East supply shock has pushed oil higher, reviving inflation fears, and even spot gold has buckled below the $4,000 threshold — a signal that this is a cross-asset de-risking event rather than a crypto-specific correction. In that regime, correlations converge toward one, and diversification offers little shelter. Crypto is absorbing the same pressure. $BTC is trading near $80,800 after breaking a key support lBitcoin just finished dropping,
and a new threat is already lining up.
Oil prices surged to $117, a six-month high.
This time it's not just expensive; someone is calculating the cost of war.
Three consecutive events in three days:
Houthi attacked Saudi Arabia, the headquarters were evacuated.
Oil leak near the UAE coast.
The US and Israel have prepared plans to strike Iran.
Just waiting for the November 3rd election.
Why is the crypto world afraid of oil prices?
Bitcoin was already falling,
if oil prices rise again, things get expensive,
and the Federal Reserve will be even more reluctant to ease monetary policy,
money tightens in the market,
and Bitcoin will be the first to take a hit.
But history tells another story:
After the past 13 midterm elections,
the US stock market rose an average of 12% in six months.
The premise is no war.
If a real conflict breaks out, oil prices could exceed 120,
and then many bearish scenarios will replay.
My view:
Before November 3rd, most likely nothing will happen,
the market will just fluctuate back and forth, so don't make rash moves.
After November 3rd,
whether or not there will be a strike on Iran is the real big issue.
If it happens: oil prices will soar, and Bitcoin will continue to fall.
If not: the suspense will be resolved, and what should rise will rise.
So the smartest move now:
Lighten your positions.
Wait for the uncertain events to settle,
then take action, there's no shame in that.
#比特币 #BTC $ETH repeatedly tested the 2280–2400 range over the weekend, with support at 2280–2300 and a lack of momentum above 2400. ETF outflows and leverage risks are suppressing the rebound. In the short term, it seems more like buying time to create space. The direction will be clearer after the U.S. stock market reopens next week and ETF fund flows update.$BTC stalled at 80,865, moving only 0.05% in 24 hours with a 2.3% amplitude. The expectation of a rate hike in South Korea needs to spread to the crypto circle, but it must first suppress Asian risk appetite or local capital activity, neither of which is currently observed. Funding rates for the last three periods are 0.0034%, 0.0010%, and 0.0094%, with contract positions at $7.6 billion; no one is leveraging this news. The liquidation side actually has more information. In 24 hours, long liquidations totaled $58.84 million, shorts $27.02 million; more longs were washed out, yet the price did not drop, indicating buyers stepping in below. Options trading put/call ratio is 1.16, open interest put/call ratio is 0.91, showing short-term protection buying but no mid-term shift to bearish positions. DVOL is 38.1, indicating the market is not willing to pay extra volatility premium for this event. I see a bullish bias in the consolidation, with another test near 80,999.9 expected. The condition for a bearish turn: breaking below 79,178.6 and funding rates turning negative, which would mean the rate hike expectation has spilled over to Asian risk appetite, requiring a reassessment of this news.#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？
SanDisk (SNDK) FY2027 Q1 may slightly beat expectations, but significantly exceeding them is difficult. AI inference demand and NAND price increases provide support, combined with a $93.9 billion long-term supply agreement as a floor; however, consumer demand is weak, gross margin has a ceiling range of 83%-85%, and the company's guidance midpoint is itself relatively low. Key focus is whether revenue can reach the upper limit of 10.8 billion, the gross margin, and the next quarter's earnings guidance from the conference call. Subsequent guidance strength or weakness may impact the stock price more than the single quarter's financial report figures.The enthusiasm of Korean retail investors bottom-fishing makes me feel that the semiconductor sector hasn't finished falling yet. From October 1 to 22, the net purchase amount of $SOXL accounted for 73.9% of the total net purchases of U.S. stocks by Korean investors during the same period, a triple leveraged long position—more people buy as it falls. This ratio looks quite intense, but it refers to net purchase amount, so don't assume that all accounts have allocated 70% to SOXL.
What I fear most is this kind of situation: it just dropped and seems cheap, so you add a position; it keeps falling and seems like a rare opportunity, so you add another position. Originally planning to catch a rebound, but the position keeps getting heavier, and you start comforting yourself with the semiconductor growth prospects for the next few years. On October 22, SOXL's net value dropped 20.66% in a single day. With such a plunge, how many times can the previously added positions hold?
Just because retail investors buy a lot doesn't prove it will necessarily fall afterward, and I can't determine the bottom based on a set of capital data. But with such strong bottom-fishing enthusiasm, I currently see no reason to rush in. Especially since SOXL is a triple leveraged daily product, after several rounds of volatility, even if the index recovers, your principal might not. I'd rather wait to see how far the next rebound can go. If buying is this active but the price still can't rise, and there's selling pressure at highs, then I think there's still room to grind lower. Buying now is the most frustrating because you barely benefit from rebounds, and the next bearish candle makes you consider whether to add more.The recent trend of BNB/BTC is quite worth pondering 🤨
Especially last night's fake breakdown, where BTC briefly fell below 80,000. Although $BNB also dropped, it quickly recovered the losses, and the exchange rate actually continued to strengthen.
On the news front, BNB recently completed a new round of quarterly burns, BNB Chain's Q3 revenue also showed significant growth, and with Futu opening BNB deposits and withdrawals, the fundamentals indeed show some positive changes.
Of course, these news items may not be the direct cause of the exchange rate strengthening. What I care more about is the market itself:
When the market is weak but BNB continues to outperform BTC, it at least shows that BNB's support is relatively solid at the moment.
If BTC continues to fluctuate and BNB/BTC can maintain this strength, then I think it's worth re-evaluating BNB.
After all, if the next market cycle really kicks off, I prefer to focus on those assets that have already shown relative strength in advance.
NFA, DYOR!
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 ETH's recent performance hasn't been impressive, but I'm more concerned about another piece of news.
On October 20th, JPMorgan announced that its USD deposit token, JPM Coin, has expanded to the Ethereum mainnet, allowing institutional clients to use it directly.
The significance of this isn't just that there's another "on-chain dollar," but that a major global bank is starting to integrate real business payment settlement tools into public blockchains.
JPMorgan's Kinexys platform has processed over $4 trillion in transactions cumulatively, with an average daily volume of about $7 billion. It’s important to emphasize that these are not Ethereum transaction volumes, nor do they imply that an equivalent amount of funds will flow into ETH.
What truly deserves attention is the bank's choice: as on-chain assets, collateral, and settlement demands gradually increase, Ethereum is becoming a technological option for traditional financial institutions.
In the short term, ETH's ETF capital inflow remains weak, and its price performance lags behind BTC; the market clearly hasn't priced in this kind of development yet.
However, the long-term logic may be shifting. The future value of ETH might not only depend on on-chain speculative activity but also on whether it can support the settlement of more deposits, funds, collateral, and financial assets.
Therefore, this news is not an immediate bullish reason for price but is an important signal to watch whether Ethereum can become institutional financial infrastructure.Bitcoin was pulled back at 80,000 today, but the way it was pulled back was passive, relying on the expectation of Treasury buybacks rather than active buying pressure. This must be clearly understood: a passively defended bottom is usually unstable because its support comes from news rather than capital. The dense resistance zone for this round of decline is between 81,500 and 82,500; only by reclaiming 83,000 can we say this downtrend has ended. The 80,000 level below is absolutely critical; bCORE holders must see: A 3~5x increase is the baseline in a bull market, 15x is ideal, and 30x is dreaming
This set of multiples straightforwardly layers expectations. A 3~5x increase belongs to the valuation recovery baseline, assuming a major BTC bull market drives sector sentiment, the chain maintains stable block production, and no black swan events like continuous validator loss or network downtime occur. This range does not require SatPay to launch or large-scale institutional entry; it can be realized solely by a Beta market, making it a relatively realistic expectation.
15x is the ideal scenario with a very high threshold: it requires SatPay license launch, a closed-loop of on-chain transaction fees, actual execution of revenue buybacks on the roadmap, node count recovery, decentralization and security restoration, and gradual institutional capital inflow. However, the project's past record shows continuous delays, node contraction, and constant selling pressure from reserve addresses, making realization very difficult.
30x is an extremely low-probability fantasy, requiring banks, stablecoins, and sovereign ecosystems all to be integrated, forming a unique ecological barrier. Given the current global regulatory environment, this is almost impossible to achieve and is what people refer to as "dreaming."
Negative factors such as the ghost chips left by the 8.31 vulnerability, contract security risks, and continuous liquidity contraction always suppress upward potential. Staking BTC relies on Bitcoin's CLTV timelock, with an independent and stable principal channel, but do not treat low-probability ideal scenarios as inevitable.Q: Can Robinhood's trading business growth continue?
A: It has short-term support, but sustainability depends on market sentiment and regulation. The core of this growth round comes from increased volume in prediction market event contracts and options trading, combined with AI tools and community features boosting user activity, continuous expansion of paid Gold memberships, rising revenue per user, new user retention, and growth in platform asset scale, forming a fundamental support base.
However, its weakness is quite prominent: it heavily relies on US stock market volatility. Once the market stabilizes and retail trading enthusiasm cools, trading volume tends to decline. The crypto trading segment continues to weaken, making it difficult to contribute incremental growth. The prediction market is a high-growth new business but faces significant regulatory uncertainty, which is the biggest risk.
In simple terms: in a high-volatility market, trading growth is expected to be maintained; if the market weakens and regulation tightens, growth will slow significantly. It no longer relies solely on stock commissions and is transforming into a comprehensive financial app, with future highlights beyond just trading volume.
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ How many times can CORE rise in a bull market? From $0.0176 to $0.5, a full breakdown of three scenarios
Current price is $0.0176, with a target of $0.5 corresponding to about a 28x increase. In the bull market cycle, three objective scenarios are evaluated. Pessimistic scenario: only follows BTC market beta recovery, SatPay still cannot obtain a license, nodes continue to decline, validators approach the 15-node shutdown red line, target $0.05, about 2.8x, only digesting some panic discount.
Neutral scenario (most probable): the underlying chain maintains operation, no large-scale commercial investment, relying on BTC bull market heat and existing TVL to drive valuation up, surging to $0.12~$0.2, about 7~11x. Without stable revenue buybacks, the rise is an emotional premium, and selling pressure can be released at any time.
Optimistic scenario: SatPay obtains compliance license, product launches, fee loop runs smoothly, institutional funds enter, only then is there a chance to reach $0.5, the 28x target. But compliance thresholds are very high; current gas income is thin, 8.31 ghost chips + reserve outflow selling pressure, and small node circle consensus are still negative factors.
Staking BTC relies on Bitcoin CLTV timelock, with an independent and stable principal channel. $0.5 is an optimistic expectation with a low probability of realization and should not be taken as a certainty.Why is the 80,000 level so critical?
Glassnode has provided an anchor point worth serious consideration: the average holding cost of the US spot Bitcoin ETF is around $81,500. The psychological threshold of $80,000, combined with the buy orders stacked on the order book and the ETF cost zone, forms an overlapping support band between $80,000 and $81,500.
In other words, the area near 80,000 is not just technical support but also the average cost line of the "real money" that has entered through ETFs over the past period.
If this level holds, the structure remains intact. If it breaks, the next level to watch is around $78,000, the "real market average," and the $76,000–$77,000 range.
Looking upward, the real tough resistance lies between $87,000 and $87,700. This area accumulates the sell pressure from those entering at the end of 2025 trying to break even, the 2026 opening price at $87,490, and the 20-month simple moving average at $87,165 — a triple resistance stacked together.
So, can BTC really rise?
Honestly, no one can give a definitive "yes" or "no." But the judgment can be broken down into three layers.
First layer: short-term, watch whether 80,000 holds and what the Federal Reserve says on October 28.
CME FedWatch shows the market prices a 90.6% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in October, and a 67.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike in December. The narrative of rate cuts has not returned; instead, it is being gradually eroded by expectations of rate hikes. The Middle East situation has pushed oil prices higher, adding another layer of uncertainty to inflation prospects. If 80,000 breaks and ETF funds continue to flow out, a short-term dip to 76,000–78,000 is not unlikely.
Second layer: medium-term, watch if the whales’ accumulation can turn from an "on-chain signal" into a "price signal."
On-chain accumulation by large holders is a long-cycle indicator with observational lag. Whales buying now does not mean prices will rise next month; historically, there is often a period of sideways or even downward drift between whale accumulation and price reversal that tests most people's patience. The real turning point requires seeing Coinbase premium turn positive, exchange net outflows resume, and short-term holder SOPR rise above 1 — none of these three signals have appeared yet.
Third layer: long-term, watch what changes are happening in Bitcoin’s pricing logic.
Galaxy’s Mike Novogratz offers a reference probability judgment: Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in 2026 is more likely than dropping to $50,000 before the end of the year. But he also warns that the $79,000–$80,000 range is an important downside observation zone; breaking it could undermine bullish momentum.Seeing the price sharply rebound from 2281 to 2360, did you breathe a sigh of relief, thinking "the iron bottom has finally arrived," and even consider mortgaging your house to buy the dip?
Don't rush to celebrate.
I've seen this "sudden revival in the face of death" scenario too many times.
Have you ever wondered why the rebound happens precisely at this point?
It dropped to 2281, on the verge of collapse, then suddenly a bullish candle pulls it back. This is not a "bulls' last stand"; it's the main force's precise "door painting" before the Federal Reserve meeting.
They need to create the illusion that "it can't fall further," tricking you impulsive bulls into entering, so they have enough liquidity below to dump the market.
Although $ETH rebounded to 2360, the volume along the way is pitifully small compared to the previous waterfall-like crash.
The 2360 to 2400 range is densely packed with trapped positions waiting to be freed.
The moving average system still hangs overhead like an iron lid. Is this a reversal?
This is a dying flash.
What’s next? Don’t rush.
This kind of rebound is just giving you an opportunity to add to your short positions.
If it continues grinding upward, touching around 2390-2410, don’t hesitate, keep shorting!
Set your stop loss at 2450, and firmly target the previous low at 2281.
Once it breaks below, panic selling before the Fed meeting will flood out, and we’ll head straight to 2200!
$BTC
$ZEC
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Last night at 11 PM, I watched ETH drop harder in one hour than it did yesterday morning. My first reaction was that a large number of contracts must have liquidated this time.
I checked OKEx ETH perpetual contracts; the positions only decreased by about 1,000 in that hour. Yesterday morning, the drop was 12,000, so this time it was less than a tenth of that.
Interestingly, the number of long holders actually jumped up during that hour, and in the next hour, positions increased again. By noon today, the open interest was just over 610,000, even more than yesterday noon.
So basically, last night’s drop didn’t liquidate many holders. Those holding on kept holding, bottom-fishers came in again, and leverage is still in the market. If OKEx ETH open interest falls below 600,000 by this time tomorrow, then I was wrong.
Just to reconcile, I said yesterday that if open interest dropped below 590,000 by noon today, I’d be wrong. The actual figure was just over 610,000, so that statement stands.$ARB
Arbitrum illustrates an important distinction in Layer-2 investing: a busy network and a valuable token are not necessarily the same thing. Low transaction costs can attract applications, traders, and liquidity, yet token value depends on its actual economic role and supply dynamics. Sustainable ecosystem activity matters, but investors should also assess competition from other scaling networks and Ethereum’s evolving roadmap.$HBAR
Enterprise-focused blockchain projects face a different adoption test from retail-driven ecosystems. Hedera emphasizes predictable fees, high-throughput infrastructure, and a governing council model intended to support business use cases. Those features may appeal to organizations with operational requirements, but technical suitability is only one part of the equation. Recurring production usage, measurable economic activity, and decentralization trade-offs deserve equal scrutiny.$GRT
Blockchain data is only useful when developers can query it efficiently. The Graph provides indexing and query infrastructure that helps applications retrieve blockchain information without rebuilding the same systems independently. Its long-term challenge is maintaining demand as indexing technology evolves and alternative data providers compete. Network usage and sustainable query economics offer a more meaningful picture than narrative-driven market enthusiasm.$ONDO
Tokenized real-world assets are pushing blockchain finance beyond purely crypto-native markets. Ondo’s focus on bringing financial assets on-chain gives it a role in this transition, but adoption is not automatic. Regulatory requirements, distribution, asset quality, and redemption arrangements all matter. The strongest evidence of progress would be sustained demand for the underlying products, not simply rising interest in RWA narratives.$ZEC is the most noticeably rising coin among the top trading volume coins on Binance today, currently around 1215 in spot price, up 3.8% in 24h, with a trading volume of 138 million USD. During the same period, $BTC basically remained flat at 80,850.
Last night between 22:00 and 24:00 Beijing time, the price was first hammered down to 1118.55, with a two-hour trading volume of 34.7 million USD. At 2 AM, it surged 2.6%, and by 10 AM it reached 1225.9, rebounding 9.6% from the low point.
On the funding side, data aggregated by CoinMarketCap shows that the Grayscale ZEC ETF had net inflows for four consecutive days up to October 23, totaling 51.54 million USD, with 20.52 million USD inflow on the 23rd alone.
Another point to watch is the NU7 upgrade; the Zcash Foundation said the mainnet activation is expected around November 5, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds.
Binance futures currently hold about 430,000 ZEC, valued at approximately 520 million USD at the current price, with a funding rate of only 0.004%, indicating longs have barely used leverage.
My view is that above 1300, many were trapped in recent days; before the upgrade, it will likely fluctuate back and forth, so I personally won’t chase it. 周末全场一起绿，热闹是热闹，可底层结构没那么简单 这波到底是恐慌出逃，还是风险偏好悄悄缩了口？ 周六刷盘的时候我愣了一下，不是某个币单独崩，而是几乎整片都在同步回撤。BTC 在 80564 美元附近，24 小时跌约 1.2%；ETH 约 2365 美元，同样跌 1.2%。但更小的票跌得更快，BNB 约 732 美元跌 1.8%，SOL 约 101 美元跌 2.6%。这个梯度很关键，它告诉我情绪不是炸裂式恐慌，而是大家在悄悄调低愿意承担的风险。✨ 有个说法我觉得值得盯：AI 相关融资的担忧正从股市往币圈渗。这解释了为什么回撤这么均匀，因为触发点不在链上，也不在某个项目，而在更上层的风险预算。当外部资产开始重新算账，crypto 这边最先反应的不是叙事，而是仓位。 我眼下只盯两个信号。第一，BTC 能不能守住 80000 这个心理台阶，它决定的是情绪底，不是价格底。第二，回撤会不会从全面转成少数板块扛住，这决定下一段资金愿意往哪边靠。前者是信心锚，后者是节奏锚。 偏多的路径是：龙头跌得慢、小票跌得快，说明抛压还在有序释放，没有踩踏，一旦外部担忧钝化，超跌的小票弹性会先出来。风险则在于，如果Some analysts are calling the next support at 75,000, but one detail is overlooked: there aren't many sellers in the thin weekend market.
BTC dipped to 79,146 over the weekend, with about $578 million in positions adjusted within 24 hours, over 90% of which were long positions. However, by early Sunday morning, the price quietly returned to around 81,000, and the shorts in the thin market did not achieve sustained success.
$BTC is currently around 81,000. This week, ETFs still saw a net inflow of 301 million, but there was a single-day outflow of 636 million on Thursday, with IBIT and FBTC withdrawing a combined 471 million. 80,000 is the average cost reference point for ETFs, which was reclaimed over the weekend, but true support will be verified when Monday's ledger opens.
$ETH is around 2,360. Last night it hit a low of 2,282; a large holder with nearly $400 million in long positions was only $30 away from the danger line and added margin early morning to push the risk line down to 2,181. In October, ETH ETFs have seen a cumulative outflow of 1.08 billion; ETFs are exiting while large holders are holding on.
$SOL is around 102. SOL ETFs had a single-day outflow of 8.515 million; on the 22nd, none of the seven products had net inflows, and five had zero liquidity. The $100 level was lost and regained but still requires repeated confirmation.
Summary: The key levels have been reclaimed in the thin market, but the direction will not be decided by the weekend spike; it depends on whether the money returns or continues to leave when Monday's ETF ledger opens.
For record-keeping purposes only, not investment advice.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $CORE rose 6% today, but there is a number on-chain that should chill you more than that 6%.
Price at $0.01878, up 4.96% in 24 hours, once surged over 6% intraday. The “ten-thousand-fold” slogan, silent in the community for days, has resurfaced.
But on the same day, an on-chain analysis on OKX dated October 24 gave a precise single-digit figure: the number of active independent validators has dropped from 31 to 16.
16. Just one node away from the "death line"
As discussed before, the security premise of the Satoshi Plus consensus is that more than two-thirds of validators honestly produce blocks. If the number of validators drops to 15 or fewer, a minority colluding or a collective outage can easily stall consensus, causing block production to halt directly.
Yesterday it was said “below 20,” today the latest number is 16.
The buffer zone has narrowed from “less than 5” to “1.”
This is not a parameter in a valuation model; this is the physical limit of whether this chain can continue producing blocks normally. And the price is rising while validators are leaving—both happening today.
What is this 6% rise trading on?
A reasonable explanation is news-driven. Records show that the announcement of Bithumb listing CORE once triggered a short-term surge of over 6% in CORE. With Korean exchanges making moves, short-term funds react quickly; this is a standard script for low-liquidity, small-cap assets.
But looking at a longer timeline: Bithumb and Coinone simultaneously suspended CORE deposits and withdrawals during the August 31 vulnerability incident, directly impacting the local Korean community with obvious short-term selling pressure. The same exchange first shut down due to security concerns, then pumped the price due to listing news. News drives liquidity, not fundamentals.
The on-chain fundamentals remain unchanged today: DEX trading volume is still at the $3,000 level, Q4 protocol revenue remains in double digits, and SatPay’s launch time is still “undecided.” The real change today is the drop in validators from 31 to 16.
The project team has offloaded costs but not power
The same analysis also highlights: the team has offloaded the cost and responsibility of node operation and maintenance, but the code repository and treasury management rights remain in the team’s hands.
The decentralization narrative has been told for months: costs handed over, but power not relinquished.
Validator count dropping to 16 means the remaining nodes are "highly coordinated" with most acting in concert with the project team long-term. The successful execution of the 31.08 hard fork relied on this consistency. But the flip side is: when the validator set narrows to just one core circle, how much real meaning does the word “decentralization” still hold on this network?
So how should we read this 6%?
It is not a signal of reversal. It is a liquidity pulse in a deeply contracting asset triggered by news. What truly determines CORE’s next step are not the few minute candles after Bithumb’s listing announcement, but two numbers:
Whether the validator count can stabilize at 16 or even rebound.
Whether the first verifiable CORE buyback transfer executed with ecosystem revenue can appear on-chain.
16 is just one away from 15. Until the validator count regains a safe distance, no bullish candle can change the structural contraction this chain is undergoing.
Price can jump 6% on a listing announcement. Validators won’t return because of an announcement. The former is sentiment; the latter is the ledger.
$CORE Macroeconomic turbulence and capital divergence: BTC repeatedly tests the 80,000 level, while privacy sector and leading public chains quietly develop independent trends.
BTC ($80,753): Price fluctuates narrowly above 80,000, but Coinbase order book shows a sell order of about $8.68 million at $82,000, indicating clear short-term resistance. Expectations of interest rate hikes in South Korea and volatility in AI tech stocks suppress risk appetite. BTC is mainly a defensive allocation of existing funds; a breakout requires supportive macro sentiment.
SOL ($102.42): The ecosystem fundamentals are accelerating. The Alpenglow upgrade reduces finality time from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds and has entered mainnet testnet; the founder proposed a tokenized collateral minting SOL plan, still conceptual but opening imagination for on-chain credit expansion.
ZEC ($1,213.02): Leading gains intraday, with about 3000% cumulative increase this year. The return of privacy narrative, opening of traditional US financial entry points, and short squeeze create a triple resonance. Winklevoss brothers and DCG are competing over Zcash mining and ETFs.
The market shows a pattern of “macro suppressing mainstream, narrative driving segments.” BTC depends on macro conditions, SOL relies on ecosystem delivery, and ZEC is a high-risk, high-volatility asset driven by leverage and narrative resonance. Manage positions and wait for BTC breakout signals or a second opportunity after ZEC deleverages, which is safer than blindly chasing gains. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Market expectations for Q3 are very high. Citibank forecasts operating profit to reach 81.3 trillion KRW, about 8% above market consensus, with revenue expected at 101.2 trillion KRW. The revenue expectations summarized by S&P analysts are also close to 99.68 trillion KRW, with net profit expected to increase by more than 376% year-on-year.
However, this is not an unreservedly optimistic consensus. The brokerage consensus on operating profit summarized by the media is about 75.97 trillion KRW, and this expectation has been revised down by 5.6% compared to three months ago, indicating growing divergence in forecasts among brokerages.
🚀 How HBM4 "boosts" profitability
The boost to profitability from HBM4 mainly manifests on two levels:
Direct increment: from "ramping up" to "revenue generation"
HBM4 began mass production in Q2, and Q3 is the first quarter with full revenue inclusion. The key point is that its average selling price (ASP) is expected to rise by 121% compared to last year before next year. Given that HBM sales already have the highest industry share, the volume increase of this high-priced new product directly drives profit elasticity. 【The weekend pulled the coin prices back, but next week's test is still in line】
This weekend's rebound is the easiest to let people breathe a sigh of relief. But next week is not an ordinary week: in today's 11:24 updated schedule, the central bank interest rate decision, US GDP, and PCE will appear intensively. (From Jin10)
What I care more about is whether this round of recovery can withstand the re-pricing of interest rate expectations. If the data is strong and inflation remains sticky, BTC and ETH may both be under pressure; if the pressure eases, the recovery will have an additional layer of support. I think it's a bit early to bet on a single direction now.
The market also leaves a question mark: in the latest complete 1-hour period, BTC trading volume is about 80% of the previous 20 average volumes, ETH less than 20%. It is true that prices have risen back, but the trading heat has not recovered synchronously, which is also a fact.
At 12:02 Beijing time, BTC is about 80852, ETH about 2363, both priced in USDT. Observing by 1 hour in the afternoon: BTC support is 80770—80810, resistance 81000—81080; ETH support 2355—2356, resistance 2369—2372. If it closes above the upper edge and holds on the pullback, then observe the continuation of the recovery; if it closes below the lower edge, the afternoon judgment must turn cautious.
$BTC $ETH
For market observation only, be aware of weekend and news volatility risks. French government bond yields have surpassed U.S. Treasuries, making Europe's debt increasingly expensive
The yield on the French 10-year government bond has exceeded that of the U.S. for the first time since 2013 — this statement carries more weight than "hitting a 24-year high." Yesterday's report focused on France's own high costs, while today's highlights the relative price: the market demands higher interest to lend to France than to the U.S. Behind this is the same ledger: debt is about 120% of GDP, deficit around 5.4%, and the France-Germany yield spread is the widest since 2011. On the U.S. side, the 10-year yield has also been pushed back to 4.99% by inflation expectations; both sides are expensive, and there is no cheap corner in global liquidity. Regarding European debt, yesterday it was "France is sick," today it is "France is more expensive than the U.S.," and the spillover chain will only lengthen. The BTC position logic remains unchanged: during macro tightening, watch the 80,000 level first. #法国10年期国债收益率自2013年来首超美债 $BTC #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？
🔥【Earnings Season｜SanDisk $SNDK FY27 Q1 Preview｜Logic + Live Trading】#OKXExpert #TradeTradFiComeToOKX
SanDisk SNDK will release FY27 Q1 earnings after market close on October 29, with revenue guidance of $10.3–10.8 billion. Combining the cyclical patterns of the previous two quarters, I share my objective analysis and live trading approach.
1. Review of the Previous Two Quarters
✅ FY26 Q3: Volume and price both rose, NAND price increases combined with AI demand, ASP and bit shipments grew simultaneously, performance exceeded expectations, management guidance was optimistic, stock price rose after earnings.
⚠️ FY26 Q4: Reported performance still strong, but most growth came from price hikes, bit shipments fell short of expectations; management guidance turned conservative, resulting in a rally followed by a pullback.
Key conclusion: The stock price valuation focus has shifted from single-quarter performance to the slope of price increases, shipment volume, and next quarter’s guidance.
2. Fundamental Analysis
✅ Support: NBM long-term contract locks in 93.9 billion orders, supporting the performance floor, NAND prices remain in an upward channel.
⚠️ Pressure: Price hike pace slows, consumer SSD demand weak, long-term contracts only guarantee a floor, making it difficult to drive a new round of significant price increases.
3. OKX Live Trading
ptSNDKXP Perpetual｜5x Short Position
Entry Price: 1248.7｜Current Price: 1250
Betting on slowing price hike benefits and the realization of positive news leading to a pullback.#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强
Middle East shipping and oil transport facilities continue to be threatened, pushing up the premium on crude oil supply and strengthening oil prices, which directly amplifies the stickiness of US inflation.
Even if the FOMC does not raise rates in October, the market will reprice: high interest rates will be maintained longer, keeping the possibility of a December rate hike, US Treasury real yields will rise, which in turn suppresses gold and BTC.
✅ Core Contradiction
Past conflicts were a safe haven benefit for gold; now conflicts push oil prices higher = raising inflation expectations = the Fed dares not turn dovish. Safe-haven buying is overshadowed by interest rate expectations, creating a special market where "geopolitical incidents cause gold and BTC to come under pressure."
✅ Market Tracking
Crude Oil: Focus on whether Brent can maintain a high level steadily; if it continues to surge, easing expectations will be further delayed;
Gold: Support near 3900 is being tested; in a high oil price environment, rebound potential is limited;
BTC: Has stronger risk asset attributes, more elastic when interest rate expectations rise; the 80,000 level is a short-term watershed.
✅ Two Scenarios
1. Conflict is controllable, oil prices surge then fall back: inflation pressure eases, rate cut expectations recover, gold and BTC can have a recovery rally;
2. Supply risks continue to ferment, oil prices keep rising: the Fed maintains a hawkish tone, assets continue to be under pressure, increasing the probability of volatile downward moves.
At next week's FOMC, Powell will definitely be asked about energy inflation issues, which is the biggest variable.
Brothers, what do you think? Let's chat in the comments…