Orbit Post Sitemap
Let's talk about the impact of the November 3 U.S. midterm elections on the crypto space.
Current market pricing forecast: Democrats sweep both chambers 63%, split Congress 28%, Republicans hold 9%. Many worry that if the Democrats win, crypto is doomed, saying three points: ① The GENIUS stablecoin bill was passed bipartisan and won't be repealed overnight; OCC rules will proceed as planned in January next year, so the long-term logic of on-chain USD inflows remains intact; ② The real risk is the CLARITY bill (which decides whether exchanges and tokens count as securities), which actually failed to pass in September, so it's a "missed positive" not a "new negative"; ③ A Democratic sweep will short-term trigger regulatory panic and tax hike expectations, but fiscal tightening will suppress U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, which macro-wise is a slow positive for BTC. Timing-wise: before November 3, the market will still be dominated by FOMC and oil prices; if a dip occurs on election night, distinguish whether it's an emotional dip or a trend reversal—my judgment is the former. The real caution is the December rate hike plus government shutdown double whammy, which will be the biggest source of volatility at year-end! #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #ETF买盘持续回流，BTC为何仍未走强？ $BTC $ZEC $SNDK A company that lost 80.7 billion in the first half is about to ring the bell
Anthropic's IPO prospectus has laid its cards on the table: a net loss of 80.7 billion USD in the first half, which is shocking, but about 72 billion of that is non-cash expenses from convertible bond revaluation, with the actual operating loss around 8.1 billion; revenue was 16.3 billion, about 15 times year-over-year, and in Q3 alone it reached 16.8 billion. The most noteworthy is the commitment: future computing power contracts exceed 600 billion USD, nearly 37 times its first-half revenue. This week OpenAI just lowered its valuation target from 1.4 trillion to 1.25 trillion, and against the backdrop of AI giants collectively being priced down by capital, Anthropic's November listing price will be a thermometer for the entire AI sector. I'm here to watch the excitement but won't catch the flying knives. #AnthropicIPO草案披露巨额算力承诺 $BTC This time I got a bit tricked by $OKB, bought quite a lot, but it kept dropping, and the rebound wasn't as good as $BNB:
OKB's success is due to regulation; X Layer's scenario expanded from crypto to US stocks, aiming to be the US stock settlement layer, betting on stricter regulation.
But its failure is also due to regulation; the SEC might classify OKB as an unregistered security, which is why OKX deliberately limits OKB's empowerment.
OKB's three moving averages (MA7 113.9, MA20 120.7, MA30 120.7) are all above the price, and the 30-day low of 110 is near today's low of 110.1, basically walking along the bottom of the range. RSI is only 40.9, indicating weakness.
Hyperliquid also wants to comply; last week it submitted five suggestions to the SEC to exclude airdrops and programmed buyback burns from the securities definition.
But unfortunately, the trend is not on $HYPE; RSI 35.2 is the lowest among the three coins, and the price is also near the 30-day low of 76.15. Although it hasn't dropped much this week, the daily average volatility narrowed to 3.3%, indicating no one is paying attention, and it will likely continue a low-volume decline.
BNB is still consistently building its ecosystem and public chain. The current price is 738.5, the only one among the three coins above MA7 (729.5), RSI 46.1 is near the midpoint, and the 30-day range position is 31.4%; structurally, it is in a recovery consolidation but has yet to break through MA20 (744.4).#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ Google Cloud surged 82%, but I'm more concerned whether the $200 billion spent is worth it
The most noteworthy aspect of Google's earnings report is not the growth itself, but the costs behind that growth.
Last quarter, Google Cloud revenue reached $24.8 billion, up 82% year-over-year, with operating profit hitting $8.8 billion, a very impressive performance. This at least shows that AI demand is not just a narrative in the capital markets; enterprises are indeed paying for computing power.
However, another set of data is more alarming: Google raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $195 billion–$205 billion, and last quarter free cash flow even turned negative.
My judgment is that Google currently does not face an obvious demand crisis, but the capital return cycle is becoming a new valuation constraint.
The good news is that Google has its own TPU, the Gemini model, and a huge user ecosystem. Its vertical integration capability may give it an advantage in long-term computing power cost competition.
However, cloud business profit growth does not mean all AI investments have become profitable. Depreciation of computing power, model R&D, and subsequent expansion costs still ultimately need to be absorbed by sustained commercial revenue.
For the upcoming Q3 earnings report, I tend to expect fundamentals to remain strong but will not blindly be bullish on the stock price. Even if results exceed expectations, if capital expenditures are sharply revised upward again, the market may still choose to sell.
Google has preliminarily proven that AI can make money; what needs to be proven next is whether the money AI makes is worth the money invested.Stablecoin regulations are finalized, with the most critical clause left open
The OCC's first final rule for the GENIUS Act is out: issuers paying interest themselves is still prohibited, but the market's biggest fear didn't make it in — the clause "reward arrangements with third parties are presumed violations" was removed and replaced with case-by-case review. This means reward models like Coinbase's 3.75% for USDC and PayPal's 4% likely survive. The banking association's public opposition didn't stop it; the rule takes effect on January 18, 2027. Don't underestimate this: stablecoin competition officially shifts from "who complies" to "who dares to share profits." In the future, when choosing stablecoins, look at rewards first, then the brand. #GENIUS法案细则发布，稳定币奖励限制调整 $USDT $BTC Gross margin rebounds, cash flow turns positive, so why doesn't the stock price recognize it?
Tesla's Q3 is actually a recovery story: revenue of 28.05 billion, automotive gross margin (excluding credits) at 18.1% back above the critical line, and free cash flow turned positive at 1.53 billion. Logically, the stock should rise, but it fell 3.3% after hours and the main stock dropped another 3.08% last night. The market is pricing in three things: first, net profit in the report dropped more than 40% year-over-year; second, energy storage at 13.7 GWh missed the 15.9 GWh expectation; third, uncertainty about the SpaceX merger hangs overhead. Fundamentals are being repaired, valuations are being cut, and the period in between is a volatile and frustrating time. Before the next earnings report, I will just observe and not take action, waiting for the decline to finish before making a move. #特斯拉Q3汽车毛利率回升，自由现金流转正 $BTC 【Break below 81K then quickly recovered? Understand what the market is grinding through】
Just now, after a wave of selling broke below 81K, it was quickly pulled back, with spot prices repeatedly tugging between 81K and 82K. Looking at Glassnode's high-position holdings chart, the main force's intention is very clear:
Top resistance is exhausting: The cost for 6–12 month mid-term buyers has already dropped to $86.7K (orange line); more importantly, looking at the lower half of the chart, the selling volume of 1–2 year buyers sharply halved after peaking at the beginning of the month (dashed circle), the high-position trapped positions have long been unable to be cut;
No sustained dumping: The selling pressure above is interrupted, while below there is the institutional cost and spot buy wall near 80K. The break below 81K was purely a short-term liquidity fake-out, and the dip was immediately absorbed by buyers.
The more intense the shakeout, the cleaner the chip structure. The ceiling at the top is lowering, the support at the bottom is sealed tight, hold your spot positions firmly and don’t get shaken off!
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 84%的业绩超预期概率，换来的却是一根扎眼的阴线。 这种"好消息先跌为敬"的剧本，你们最近是不是也看得有点麻木了？ 我盯着 SNDK 这根线的时候，心里其实咯噔了一下。明明三季度 beat 的概率被算到 84%，盘面却反向砸下来，从 1400 上方一路滑回 1300 附近。我自己就卡在 1400 上方那一段，昨天差一点能走掉，今天又被按回去，说不心疼是假的。但这次我没急着骂市场，而是把它当成一篇风险管理日记来复盘。 先说结论：市场这波砸的不是业绩，是预期。84% 这个数字太漂亮了，漂亮到已经被提前计价。当所有人都知道"大概率超预期"，beat 本身就不再是增量信息，真正被交易的是 tech 板块风险偏好走弱时，谁先被拿来兑现。SanDisk 作为存储链里弹性偏大的标的，天然容易被当成提款机。所以这不是基本面崩了，是拥挤的乐观先被挤了一遍水分。 第二层传导更值得留意。美股科技情绪转弱，往往先压估值、再压节奏，BTC 和 ETH 这种高 beta 资产会跟着抖一下，山寨更敏感，反弹时冲得快、回撤时也先被抛。但要注意，这次是"预期差"引发的调整，不是系统性抽水，两者对仓位的含义完全不同。 偏#微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？ Microsoft's AI business is still in an accelerated growth phase, but market valuation logic is shifting from revenue growth to investment returns. The fundamentals are somewhat optimistic, yet the short-term stock price may not necessarily rise in sync.
Microsoft's total revenue for fiscal Q4 2026 reached $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year; Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 43%, Microsoft Cloud revenue was $59.3 billion, up 27% year-over-year. Microsoft 365 Copilot paid seats surpassed 30 million, commercial remaining performance obligations reached $678 billion, still growing 25% excluding OpenAI. These figures indicate that Microsoft's AI commercialization has moved from concept to actual demand. Microsoft's capital expenditure last quarter reached $41 billion, free cash flow was $19.6 billion; next quarter's capital expenditure guidance exceeds $50 billion. Although this includes lease-related accounting classification adjustments and cannot be fully equated to cash outflow for the quarter, the intensity of AI infrastructure investment is very evident. GPU, data center, power, and depreciation costs continue to rise. If AI service prices decline, inference cost improvements fall short of expectations, or actual enterprise usage intensity is insufficient, even if Azure maintains over 40% growth, capital return rates may not improve accordingly.
I expect this earnings report to remain strong, with Azure having the opportunity to meet or slightly exceed guidance, but this does not necessarily lead to a stock price increase. Tech giants are again lifting full-year capital expenditure plans, and the market's instinct is to read the number as a verdict. It isn't. CapEx, the money a company commits to long-lived assets, is a directional signal about the future, not a scorecard for the present. The useful question is not whether spending rose, but what the spending is for. The composition matters first. For technology firms, CapEx now means data centres, servers and GPUs. For chipmakers, it means wafer fabs and producti🐋 Big Brother Maji just deposited another 500,000 USD: He just got liquidated once and is still holding a 25x leveraged ETH long position
According to the latest on-chain data, Big Brother Maji's total exposure is now about 103 million USD. On October 15, he just experienced a liquidation, with cumulative losses exceeding 80 million USD.
Around $ETH 2400, his main position ⚡
After liquidation, he didn't exit; he reversed and opened another 25x leveraged ETH long. Currently holding about 28,000 to 31,500 ETH, corresponding to a notional exposure between 47 million and 77 million USD, with unrealized losses at one point expanding to about 3.5 million USD.
Around $BTC 81800, he's also adding 📈
On October 21, he just deposited 500,000 USDC, clearly increasing positions in ETH, BTC, and HYPE, with all three positions fully long. His BTC position is not as aggressive as ETH but aligned in betting on a rebound.
Around $HYPE 80, he was just liquidated once 📊
On October 18, his HYPE long was fully liquidated, losing about 26,000 USD, then he rebuilt the position. HYPE is the token of the Hyperliquid platform itself; he is heavily invested in ETH and HYPE on this platform, effectively stacking leverage and platform risk together.
In short: just got liquidated once, sold NFTs to top up positions, still holding a 25x leveraged long—he is currently the most daring well-known trader on-chain to add leverage
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 #存储芯片股再度下跌，AI投资回报担忧加剧
Against the backdrop of easing inflation and cooling expectations for interest rate hikes, U.S. Treasury bonds are facing market sell-offs, with the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5.6%, reaching a new high in over 20 years. This counterintuitive phenomenon breaks the traditional inverse relationship between inflation and bond yields, reflecting a reassessment by institutions of the U.S. debt issue.
Debt repricing pushes up the long end
The market focus has shifted from short-term rate hikes to the sustainability of long-term debt:
Surging debt scale: The U.S. bond issuance demand will continue to expand in the coming years, with annual interest payments already exceeding military spending.
Rising term premium: Facing massive long-term financing, institutions demand higher risk compensation, causing long-term rates such as the 30-year yield to keep rising.
5% U.S. Treasuries rewrite asset logic
In the past decade-plus of low interest rates, capital tended to chase growth and future expectations. After U.S. Treasury yields broke through 5%, asset
pricing logic has been restructured:
Premium for quality assets: High-quality assets with stable cash flows attract more capital, further boosting valuations.
Pressure on lower-quality assets: Assets lacking real profits and cash flow face significantly increased financing difficulties and valuation reappraisal pressure.
Focus on the long end and issuance scale
The core variable determining the global asset valuation system has shifted from the Fed's short-term policy to U.S. Treasury yields and future issuance scale. Crude oil has surged all the way up this time 📈
It’s been a thrill for itself
But Bitcoin, gold, and US stocks have really suffered
Yesterday BTC dropped 4000 points directly 📉
Actually, what people fear about oil isn’t that it’s expensive
But that it’s rising too fast
Oil prices slowly rose from 80 to 100 📈
Versus suddenly shooting up to 100 dollars within a few days 🚀
The impact on the market is definitely different
If a situation arises:
The economy starts to weaken
But crude oil keeps rising due to supply risks
Then what?
Cutting interest rates might increase inflation pressure.
Not cutting rates might let the economy continue to struggle
Many might think
If oil prices rise, it means inflation is coming
Isn’t Bitcoin supposed to hedge against inflation?
So it should go up
But the problem is, Bitcoin’s short-term trading logic
And its long-term inflation-hedging narrative aren’t necessarily the same thing To pour some cold water first, the top gain is only 1.48%. What I read more is defense, not a market strengthening. As of 11:00 Beijing time, among the perpetual contracts with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $20 million on Hyperliquid's public market, XMR leads the gainers with +1.48%, priced at $615.10; BTC and ETH fell 1.16% and 1.13% respectively during the same period.
I am bearish on this leaderboard for two reasons. First, the leading gain is limited, and combined with the decline of BTC and ETH, I tend to judge that the market lacks upward momentum, but a single snapshot cannot prove the trend. Second, in the privacy coin sector, while $XMR is rising, ZEC fell 5.53%. Interpreting this as the entire sector strengthening, I think the evidence is insufficient. Moreover, this is just a single platform's contract leaderboard with a trading volume threshold and cannot directly represent the overall market capital flow.
Of course, the bulls might be right; resistance to decline in a weak market could indeed be the start of strength. If XMR continues to strengthen, other related coins follow, and BTC and ETH stabilize, I will retract my bearish view. For now, I prefer to be less excited and first see if the strength can spread. Are you more bullish or bearish? Do you value XMR's counter-trend rise more, or the background of mainstream coins falling? Please share your reasons.10.23 Bitcoin's decline plan is about to fail again, did the US dollar and US Treasury yields fall because they caught some kind of trend?
1. The real reasons for the decline in the US dollar and US Treasuries, I think there are probably two points:
1) Yesterday, global AI concept stocks were very miserable, basically individual stocks fell nearly 10%, the Nasdaq dropped 2.6%, everyone is worried about insufficient returns on AI investments and the global economy dragged down by high oil prices, so funds all withdrew from US stocks and flowed into US Treasuries, and the yen stabilized.
Rising crude oil and excessive inflation, combined with the safe-haven logic, led to concentrated buying of US Treasuries, causing Treasury yields to fall.
2) The Federal Reserve is now dovish again, and Waller's last public speech had no hawkish signals at all, repeatedly saying to watch the data, watch more data. Now the probability of a rate hike in October is very low, which is a signal of no urgency to raise rates. Bulls betting on high interest rates and a strong dollar are also closing positions, and the US dollar index started to retreat after breaking 102.
2. My judgment is that the Federal Reserve's direction has not changed.
1) This is not the Fed cutting rates, nor is there any easing policy or liquidity injection. This is impossible, with oil prices steady above 100, the Hormuz conflict escalating, and energy inflation persisting.
2) Against the backdrop of high inflation and interest rates, Bitcoin and US stocks are like grasshoppers on the same rope, singing a different tune from crude oil. Therefore, BTC has not effectively broken through the strong resistance at 84000 and is somewhat lacking momentum.
3) Shorting at 84000 still holds. Every short position above 84000 is very valuable, with a target of 81800.
Just like our long positions at 81000-81300, there is already a profit space of 500-800 points, with a target of 82900. The White House loudly announced freezing $833 million in crypto assets, shutting down 503 scam websites, and notifying nearly 9,000 American victims. Sounds satisfying, but there's one detail no one asks about: freezing does not equal confiscation, and certainly does not mean the money is returned to the victims. Why do anti-fraud success reports always only mention the amount frozen, but never the amount returned? The digital currencies in the treasuries of two major countries are all obtained through confiscation.$IRYS and the neighboring $DOOD's pump tactics can't just be said to be similar, they are exactly the same.Many people are puzzled: Sun Yuchen himself is deeply involved in the crypto sector and still holds a Bitcoin reserve. Logically, he should be the least likely person to be bearish on Bitcoin, so why does he specifically highlight Bitcoin's quantum resistance risk?
1. He is not completely denying Bitcoin; he distinguishes between "short-term value" and "underlying long-term security vulnerabilities"
Sun Yuchen has not liquidated his Bitcoin holdings and acknowledges that Bitcoin is the cornerstone asset of the crypto market, with short-term consensus and ETF funds still holding value.
His bearish view is not about an immediate crash in the coin price but about the long-term inherent flaw in the underlying cryptographic system: Bitcoin uses the ECDSA elliptic curve signature algorithm, which lacks native post-quantum design; once quantum computing power reaches a certain level, Bitcoin addresses with exposed public keys could have their private keys computed, leading to asset theft and market crashes.
His core judgment: the market currently almost does not price in this long-term risk; ETF retail investors and institutions mostly focus on liquidity and market trends, ignoring cryptographic vulnerabilities.
2. The most critical point: Bitcoin's decentralization ironically becomes the biggest obstacle to upgrades
This is also the perspective that differentiates him from Buffett and Professor Gu:
Buffett denies assets without cash flow or value; Professor Gu predicts zeroing out after quantum cracking;
Sun Yuchen emphasizes: Bitcoin nodes, miners, and whales are dispersed globally, making it extremely difficult to unify and execute a quantum-resistant hard fork.
To change the underlying cryptographic algorithm, a consensus of the vast majority of the entire network is required. If even a portion of miners or nodes do not cooperate, the fork will split into two chains, tearing the consensus apart. Other public chain projects can proactively plan upgrades; Bitcoin has no single controlling entity, making it extremely difficult to change the underlying cryptography.
3. AI accelerates mathematical breakthroughs, significantly shortening the risk timeline beyond industry expectations
Previously, the industry generally believed quantum cracking was decades away; breakthroughs like Google's magic quantum chip have continuously refreshed expectations, drastically reducing the required number of quantum bits.
Sun Yuchen additionally raises a more cutting-edge concern: AI mathematical algorithms might find vulnerabilities in existing signature algorithms before mature quantum computers are realized, meaning the risk could arrive earlier than expected. This is not a distant story but a technical variable that requires early preparation.
4. From his own sector layout perspective: post-quantum is a new track opportunity
His TRON project is advancing the NIST standard post-quantum cryptographic upgrade, racing ahead in the quantum-resistant public chain track.
For him, objectively pointing out Bitcoin's shortcomings as the industry leader essentially proposes the next generation blockchain security standard: future public chains must have quantum resistance as a fundamental threshold.
This is not simply bearish or market crashing but an industry proposition: older generation crypto assets without post-quantum design have a long-term underlying security ceiling, while chains that complete quantum-resistant transformation early will gain new narrative dividends.
5. The structure of ETF funds amplifies this hidden risk
A large amount of new capital comes from ETF institutions and ordinary retail investors, most of whom do not understand cryptographic risks. Once quantum-related negative news breaks out in the future, this capital will collectively panic and flee, causing a stampede far greater than the early small crypto circles. Sun Yuchen believes this is a chain risk underestimated by the market.
In summary
Sun Yuchen is not against Bitcoin; rather, he has seen a contradiction: Bitcoin, as a decentralized benchmark, is precisely very difficult to complete an underlying cryptographic upgrade; against the backdrop of accelerated breakthroughs in quantum + AI technology, this inherent shortcoming will become a long-term hidden risk hanging over Bitcoin's head.$BTC The midterm election is in 11 days...
Anyone who buys Bitcoin on the day of the US midterm election has already anticipated the next growth surge.
2014: +5,851%
2018: +948%
2022: +572%
These figures are from election day to the peak of the next cycle, every time.
The results decrease with each cycle, but they have never stopped.
This is the last dip before a new rise, and this cycle is heading towards new ATH levels.$BTC Jensen Huang came out today saying: Memory will not be oversupplied by 2029.
You have to take this with a grain of salt. The seller of shovels endorsing the gold diggers naturally has a vested interest; the more memory is snapped up, the more valuable his GPU ecosystem becomes. I'm not saying he's lying, but the optimism of an interested party should be weighted down.
What’s more worth pondering is the timing. The true bottom never needs a big shot to come out and soothe emotions; precisely when the market starts to feel shaky and someone needs to shout to steady the scene, such statements start to flood out. Supportive talk is not a bottom signal; it’s a sign that sentiment hasn’t bottomed yet.The rush to conclude that the market will collapse $5 billion in just a few days overlooks how national-level asset seizures actually work in practice. Countries rarely sell large volumes of Bitcoin directly on public retail investor order books, where slippage costs would erode the seized profits; they usually opt for structured over-the-counter (OTC) auctions, institutional trading desks,$BTC #BTCETFInflowsPriceGap $SAFE
Self-custody becomes more complicated as crypto portfolios and on-chain operations expand. Safe addresses this problem through smart-account infrastructure that can support multisignature control and programmable transaction rules. Its relevance depends on how widely these tools are adopted by individuals, DAOs, and businesses. Security assumptions, usability, and the relationship between platform adoption and SAFE token demand deserve separate evaluation$ETH $BTC $SOL Institutional funds also exhibit chasing highs and selling lows behavior. During the previous BTC rebound phase, institutions entered heavily, with a cumulative net inflow of $1.07 billion; however, as the market weakened yesterday, there was an immediate $380 million capital cut-loss exit.
The 80000 level is a key defensive line for BTC bulls. The MA7, MA20, and MA30 moving averages are at 82168, 82866, and 83303 respectively, all running above the current price, forming a bearish alignment. The market structure suggests that if it cannot hold above 83000 subsequently, the market will most likely continue to oscillate downward.
ETH's ETF capital remains weak. This week, BTC's ETF capital returned $700 million, while ETH spot ETFs still maintain a net outflow of $140 million, making the overall capital performance this month hard to expect positively.
Technically, ETH's rebound is weak; the price has never stood above MA7 (2421), still 3.4% below MA20 (2497); RSI is 38.4, the lowest among comparable assets; the 30-day range percentile is only 21%, with all strength indicators skewed weak.
In contrast, $ZEC's market structure remains intact and is currently in a bottom consolidation phase. Looking at a longer timeframe, it has increased by a hundredfold since last year, showing a very impressive performance. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
With the FOMC meeting approaching, the market now prices in a 92.8% chance of a "pause in rate hikes," which is almost a sure bet. But after carefully examining the data in this chart, I found that things aren't that simple.
Everyone is celebrating the pause, but don't overlook the bigger picture. Initial jobless claims have dropped to 194,000, nearing multi-year lows, indicating that the U.S. economy is very resilient and not in recession at all. With such a strong economy and inflation pressures still present, why would the Fed immediately turn dovish? The community insight in the chart hits the nail on the head: a pause does not mean tightening is over; high interest rates still firmly suppress risk assets.
However, there is some good news in the short term: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen below 5%. This is a rare breather for overvalued tech stocks and crypto assets, and BTC's slight 0.4% rise now is supported by this logic.
The core variable now is not whether rates will be hiked or not, but the "tone" of the Fed officials during the meeting. If they package the "pause" as a "hawkish pause," continue to emphasize inflation risks in the statement, and leave the door open for a rate hike in December, it will definitely be a blow to the market.
In terms of strategy, I absolutely would not bet on a one-sided move at this time. The 92.8% expectation means that if a pause is indeed announced, it could easily trigger a "good news already priced in" pullback. $BTC Today, keep an eye on a neglected corner: copper prices fell again this week, marking the third weekly decline in four weeks.
Many people think the AI cooldown only hits Nvidia and memory, but if you trace upstream, you'll understand that data centers need electricity, and the power grid needs copper. Copper has become the most honest shadow of AI demand. Its decline doesn't reflect risk-off sentiment; it genuinely signals a contraction in demand expectations.
This is a different story from the recent sharp drops in gold and silver: gold and silver fell due to deleveraging and forced liquidations, while copper's drop indicates some are starting to doubt whether those data centers will actually get built. Industrial metals never engage in narratives; they only respond to orders.#SK Hynix Q3 earnings report is coming, can HBM4 boost profitability? $ZEC fell from a high of 1368 to 1230, a retracement of nearly 10%. Many people thought its narrative was cooling off, but the blame for this drop does not lie with ZEC itself.
The root cause is still the risk transmitted from the US stock market, with BTC under pressure falling back to around 81800. Tesla and Meta earnings reports were released, and the market began to worry again about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures, causing risk appetite to cool rapidly.
In this liquidity contraction, altcoins have greater elasticity and naturally experience stronger declines than the mainstream. This correction in ZEC was passively dragged down by the overall market sentiment.
A very key data point is that the decline in ZEC's open interest contracts is greater than the price drop itself. How to interpret this signal? It is not new shorts actively dumping, but rather on-exchange longs actively closing positions and exiting, not a collective rejection of the NU7 narrative.
The NU7 upgrade calendar date remains locked at GMT November 6, the narrative timeline has not changed, and the fundamental expectations have not been falsified.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Understand $IRYS at a glance. Don't understand the reason behind $IRYS's surge? Then look at the chip structure!
$IRYS total supply is 10 billion, initial circulation 20%, pre-market price 0.02, pool price 0.03
Financing details:
- Round 1: 5.2 million (May 2022)
- Round 2: 3.5 million (June 2024)
- Round 3: 10 million (August 2025)
Total financing: 18.7 million, token allocation 25.3%, average institutional cost per token is 0.0074
Token distribution (initial unlock as shown in the chart):
- Institutions: 25.3%
- Team: 18.8%
- Ecosystem: 30%
- Foundation: 9.9%
- Airdrop: 8%
- Liquidity: 8%
Why does it fall back after touching 0.028 during the rebound? Because the pool price is 0.03, which is the initial exchange price previously pre-set by institutions in the DEX liquidity pool.
$DOOD surged a few days ago but has cooled off these days. IRYS might be boosted up, but don't chase above 0.03, institutions are waiting to exchange chips. Gold is crashing!
Stocks are crashing!
Bitcoin is crashing!
Silver is crashing!
Even websites are starting to crash!
Everything is falling, so where exactly is the money going? 😂
The answer might be: cash, short-term government bonds, margin accounts, or even funds used to repay debts after forced liquidations.
When the market experiences a liquidity shock, investors may sell off previously favored assets to replenish cash.
Even gold and $BTC are not necessarily immune.
But don’t forget, a drop in asset prices doesn’t mean all the money has disappeared—some money has just shifted, while some evaporates with the decline in valuations.
The real question is: is this just a deleveraging event, or a larger-scale liquidity crisis?This morning I cashed out the short position from the AI bubble wave, and now I basically have no positions. It's not that I'm not bearish, but the bond market has already made the point clear for me.
The global corporate bond spread surged to 129 basis points today, the highest since May 2025, and the spread on high-grade Asian USD bonds also hit a new one-year high. Stock prices can still be propped up by sentiment, but credit spreads cannot; this is where real money is pricing "debt-financed AI spending."
The stock market debates daily whether there is a bubble, but the bond market has quietly tightened the purse strings long ago. I'm not in a hurry to reopen positions; I'll hold cash and wait for it to reveal the answer. $BTC$OKB Support Bounce Bullish Momentum Building.
Leverage: 10x Max
Trade Setup: Long
Entry: 111.80 – 112.50
SL: 109.80
TP1: 113.80
TP2: 114.80
TP3: 115.80
Price held the 110.01 support firmly after the sharp sell-off and is printing higher lows with clear buyer control. Momentum is shifting bullish, giving solid probability of a continued recovery toward prior resistance levels.
Buy and Trade $OKB
#WillFedPauseInOctober [Brent Oil Surges to $113, Can Trump's Use of the Defense Production Act Control Oil Prices?]
Trump's invocation of the Defense Production Act this time reflects the fact that the pressure on U.S. energy supply is already difficult to resolve by mere rhetoric. The new memorandum on October 22 allows the government to promote oil production, refining, pipelines, and fuel storage projects through procurement commitments and financial support. However, policy approval does not mean new capacity can come online tomorrow.
The market is already racing ahead: on October 22, Brent crude oil $BZ briefly rose to $113.17 per barrel, hitting a five-month high. The direct trigger was the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and attacks on Saudi energy facilities, raising supply concerns.
This policy can alleviate the U.S.'s medium- to long-term capacity and infrastructure bottlenecks, but it is difficult to immediately fill the international supply gap. Refinery expansions and pipeline construction take time, and even if crude oil can be extracted, it does not mean diesel supply can increase immediately.
In the short term, oil prices are still dominated by war and transportation risks. Only actual production, refining capacity, and transportation recovery can truly weigh down oil prices; if the conflict continues to escalate, Trump's production increase plan may not keep pace with the market's price surge.Yesterday it was still flaunting above 84,000, today it was directly knocked back to its original state.
In the early hours today Beijing time, BTC plunged from around 84,000, breaking below 81,000 USD, with a 24-hour drop exceeding 4% at one point. CoinMarketCap reported $81,245 at 8 AM this morning, down 3.76%—the largest single-day drop in a month.
In yesterday's report, I said, "Hold above 84,000 to look at 87,000; only after breaking 87,000 can we talk about the trend," and also warned, "Don’t rush to call a bull market, four question marks are still hanging overhead."
Within one day, the market slapped the answer in our faces: 84,000 was not held, and 87,000 was not even seen in the shadow.
What’s more worth pondering is the composition of this decline—it’s not a problem within the crypto market itself, but three heavy external blows hitting simultaneously: U.S. tech stocks crashed, the Middle East situation suddenly became critical, and oil prices soared. The liquidation structure also completely reversed: in the past 4 hours, the entire network liquidated $187 million, with long positions accounting for $173 million, about 92%. A few days ago, shorts were bleeding, today it’s the longs being carried away.$SOL
JPMorgan Asset Management's money market fund has launched on Solana. Simply put, it means turning fund shares into tokens and putting them on the blockchain. After reading this, I first wondered if some people might directly interpret it as JPMorgan entering the market to buy SOL? That leap is a bit too far. The route the goods take is quite different from whether or not to buy the shipping company's stock; there are many steps in between. I actually want to check the fund's prospectus to see how subscription and redemption work, and whether a regular wallet can be used.Meta announces a 1-for-2 stock split, but the stock price actually fell?
The split is real, with 1 new C share given for every 1 share held, but the special feature of the C shares is that they have no voting rights.
Why do this? Because the company can issue C shares to raise money to invest in AI, while Zuckerberg's control won't be diluted.
Bloomberg also reported that this is to retain Zuckerberg, as California will vote on a wealth tax next month.
But the split won't make the company more valuable. What really worries the market is: Q3 free cash flow of -$2.1 billion, the first negative since going public.
Swipe right to see the full analysis 👉U.S. Treasury yields are plummeting... What exactly is the market panicking about?
Is it AI expectations falling short?
Is it the escalation of the Iran situation?
Is it the uncertainty brought by the U.S. midterm elections?
Or is the economic fundamentals deteriorating?
When yields suddenly drop sharply, it indicates the market may be repricing economic growth, inflation, and the future interest rate path.
But what’s truly worth watching out for is: if this isn’t just a pure flight-to-safety trade, but the market starting to worry about a recession, then stocks, gold, and $BTC could all face a new round of volatility.
Is this just short-term panic, or the beginning of a larger-scale risk reassessment?#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？
【Revenue Hits $1.3 Billion, What Else Can Robinhood Rely On to Keep Growing?】
The key focus of Robinhood’s ($HOOD) earnings report is actually the revenue structure. Q2 revenue grew 32% year-over-year to $1.31 billion, but crypto trading revenue fell 38% year-over-year to $100 million. The growth was supported by options, stocks, and prediction markets, especially prediction market revenue reaching $156 million.
Crypto trading volume rebounded 61% month-over-month in August to $17.5 billion, but still declined 38% year-over-year; stock trading volume grew 68% year-over-year. In the first 24 days of September, crypto trading volume was about $17 billion, indicating some recovery in trading activity, but this does not directly translate to synchronized revenue growth.
The company is moving away from relying solely on retail crypto trading for revenue, which is the right direction. The issue is that the market may have already started pricing in the new business. The real focus of the October 27 earnings report will be whether trading revenue can continue to grow and whether the new business can keep generating profits. If crypto trading warms up and stocks and prediction markets continue to expand, growth will be more solid; if trading volume rises but does not convert into revenue, the valuation story will need to be discounted.$ATOM The core driving logic behind ATOM's strong surge today
Fundamental valuation restructuring: The Osmosis merger proposal and Cosmos Hub are accelerating the shift towards a deflationary model driven by "fee-driven buybacks and programmatic burns." The protocol no longer relies solely on token issuance but repurchases ATOM on the secondary market through real ecosystem revenue (such as DEX protocol income, capped at 2.5% of total supply). Additionally, governance proposals like the liquidity module (LSM) are advancing, providing long-term buying expectations.
Daily chart breakout (technical aspect): The daily level confirms a breakout from the long-term "falling wedge" reversal pattern since the end of 2025. Short-term moving averages (MA5, EMA5) have crossed upward and turned, with the price breaking through the dense moving average resistance between 1.75–1.78. The KDJ indicator shows a bullish golden cross opening upward, signaling the start of bullish momentum.
Short covering and capital replenishment (derivatives aspect): There was significant short interest during the previous low consolidation phase, with funding rates once negative (shorts paying longs). As the price broke the key defense level at 1.78, it triggered localized short stop-losses and short covering, amplifying the intraday gains.
#MetaQ3营收超预期，巨额AI投入引发担忧 Is the "4% passive income" on stablecoins going to be cut? The final GENIUS draft is here, and no safe harbor for yields
Folks, there was a piece of news last night that might be easy to overlook but is related to our wallets: On October 21, the OCC officially finalized the GENIUS Act rules, marking the implementation of federal stablecoin regulation.
The most explosive part is this — issuers cannot directly pay interest income to token holders. More importantly, those "deposit U and earn 4%" rewards on platforms that relied on third-party workarounds will no longer have safe harbor protection. Don’t think that because you’ve been doing it before or old users are used to it, you’ll be automatically exempt. Now, every case will be reviewed individually, compliance judged separately, and the sword hanging over heads remains.
Honestly, many people used to treat stablecoins like a demand deposit financial product to earn interest. This basically means regulators are saying: stablecoins are payment tools, not investment products, and offering yields isn’t so straightforward.
Fortunately, USDT and USDC remained steady that day, almost flat, and the market didn’t panic. The rules won’t take effect until January 2027, so there’s still room for debate.
To be clear, this isn’t about killing stablecoins but about setting the rules first: 1:1 reserve collateralization and no arbitrary interest payments. In the short term, coin prices won’t feel much impact; in the long term, compliant major issuers will be more stable, while those wild platforms relying on high yields to attract users will have a hard time.$AKE is truly a monster coin. Can it break through the previous high?
In the short term, I personally remain bearish. It has been rising in a stepped manner, but on-chain funds are continuously flowing out. Plus, there is another batch unlocking on November 21, so the selling pressure at that time will definitely be very strong. Currently, around 0.035, it has clearly reached a daily resistance level. The daily resistance level is at 0.037. Shorting around this resistance level would be very prudent!!!
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $ETH A historical signal that makes me somewhat uneasy: March 12, 2020.
According to a market comparative study, the last time the following occurred was during the global financial market shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic:
10-year US Treasury yield dropped more than 2% in a single day
Bitcoin dropped more than 2%
Gold dropped more than 2%
S&P 500 index dropped more than 1%
And now, a similar cross-asset combination is drawing attention again.
What is truly worth being cautious about is not just the price drops, but that different assets may be simultaneously under selling pressure.
Does this mean liquidity is tightening? Or is it just a short-term position adjustment?
I also want to see more complete data to verify; we cannot assume the 2020 scenario will repeat just because the trends are similar.
Especially $BTC, which needs close attention going forward. #中东能源风险升温，国际油价维持高位 The Middle East situation remains tense, with the market trading on supply risks, and oil prices holding at high levels.
On one side, there are supply concerns caused by geopolitical conflicts plus OPEC production cuts supporting prices; on the other side, weak overseas economies suppress long-term demand.
Caught between these forces, oil prices fluctuate at high levels, with volatile moves driven by news, many false breakouts, and significant risks in chasing highs.
Since there has been no substantial action disrupting supply, the premium could fall at any time.
How long do you think oil prices can hold at these high levels this time? #中东能源风险升温，国际油价维持高位 #中东能源风险升温，国际油价维持高位 Is today still Black Friday❓❔
Nasdaq dropped 2.6%, S&P 500 fell 1.21%, tech stocks and AI concept stocks are the hardest hit
This morning when I woke up and checked my phone, basically everything was down
$BTC $ETH seem to have digested a bit in advance this time, with $455 million liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, $435 million long positions liquidated, over 100,000 people taken out
Leveraged longs got wiped out again, the fear index dropped from 68 to 50, moving from greed back to neutral, some who needed to exit have done so
But Brent crude oil prices remain high, oil prices are stuck at elevated levels, inflation expectations can't come down, and risk asset valuations continue to be suppressed
BTC is still relatively weak now, without any decent rebound, so the focus remains on the 80,000 level. If selling pressure eases and the price can hold here, there could still be a bounce
This level has been tested many times; the more tests, the more it feels like it won't hold. If it doesn't hold, a $692 million long liquidation wave will be triggered, and the next support level to watch is around 78,000
#BTC key level#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
$⚠️5 days countdown to the October FOMC! Is the BTC 81k life-or-death moment here?
Currently, CME data is clear: the probability of maintaining the interest rate in October is over 92%, but the expectation of a rate hike in December has surged to 89%. In other words, it's a "temporary breather, tightening is not over yet."
Now BTC is fluctuating around 81k, with short-term support at 80.5k and resistance at 82.5k. The FOMC statement this time will directly determine the next direction: if it holds above 82.5k, there is a chance to challenge the previous high of 84k; if it breaks below the 80.5k support, be cautious of the risk of retreating to 79k.
Are you bullish or bearish this time? Let's chat in the comments below👇
$BTC Yesterday I came across the latest data from the blockchain data platform Allium (as of Q3 2026), and was struck by a set of comparisons: From January to September this year, the circulating supply of stablecoins only increased from $294 billion to $304.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%; but the estimated payment volume during the same period reached $482 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45.4%. The amount of money barely increased, but the spending speed nearly accelerated by half. The number of payment transactions increased even more dramatically: 1.04 billion transactions, a year-on-year increase of 71.3%. The number of transactions grew faster than the amount, indicating that the average amount per transaction is decreasing—stablecoins are gradually shifting from being a "large transfer tool" to becoming a "daily spending habit." Looking in detail, the fastest growth is in cards: stablecoin card payments were only $388 million in the first three quarters last year, but reached $3.9 billion in the same period this year, more than a ninefold increase. Inter-company remittances remain the largest portion, rising from $179 billion to $246 billion, an increase of 37.6%. My judgment is: stablecoins have entered the "circulation era" this year, not the "hoarding era." The supply volume is not increasing, meaning no large influx of new money; but the usage frequency of existing funds is skyrocketing, money is accelerating turnover. People are not treating stablecoins as deposits, but as channels for transfers and consumption—money comes in, goes out, almost without pause. Why can't they be hoarded? A very practical reason: stablecoins naturally do not generate interest. Regulation has just nailed this path shut: the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in October 【HiLo Big Gray Brother Morning Report】10/23 · US stocks weaken further, BTC surges then falls back to test 80K again (1/2)
Good Friday morning!
US stocks clearly dropped last night. We mentioned several times this week that after QQQ broke below the uptrend line, the rebound failed to retake 730. From a technical structure perspective, this looks more like a pullback after a breakdown, but the rebound being blocked also increases the possibility of further adjustment. Currently, QQQ is back near 700, which is the low point of last month's consolidation range; watch for support at the 4H level. If US stocks remain weak on Friday, there may be room for further adjustment next week.
Back to the crypto market, BTC quickly fell back after probing near 84.8K yesterday, giving back most of this week's gains, now again near 81K. The 80K support may still be tested soon. The market's upward momentum is weak with insufficient follow-through, and there are no particularly outstanding independent trending coins; overall, it remains mainly a range-bound wave. Considering the weakness in US stocks, if BTC continues to be under pressure, more obvious synchronous fluctuations between the crypto market and US stocks may appear, so pay attention to their linkage.
In the short term, BTC support is first focused around 81K–80K, with resistance near 82.5K.
#HiLoBigGrayBrotherMorningReport #BTC #USStocks #QQQ #CryptoMarketDuring the day at work, messages kept interrupting me, so only at night do I have uninterrupted time to spread out the market charts. I just came across this monitoring alert, and that long position of over $200,000 on the screen made me stop scrolling. Watching large position openings late at night, it's easiest to mistake someone else's bet for your own directional sense. 🌙
Core Trader 07 (0x8afaca…28113) opened a long $UNI position with 3x leverage, with a notional value of about $282,100. This is an opening position, not a profit screenshot, and the outcome is still unknown.
My judgment is: it’s worth observing, but not enough to increase my confidence in going long. The amount is impactful, but without knowing what portion of the wallet’s total assets this represents, it’s unclear if it’s a heavy bet or just a small allocation; 3x leverage doesn’t mean it’s easy—if the price moves about 10% against the position, estimating loss on margin by dividing the notional position by leverage, the margin loss would be about 30%, excluding fees and margin adjustments. Also, a single address opening a long only shows it chooses to take on upside risk, it doesn’t prove the entry point is appropriate.
A note to myself: don’t substitute your own risk judgment with the size of someone else’s position. Who else is still awake at this hour watching UNI’s price, or waiting to see if this address adds or reduces its position? Between these two signals, which do you value more?The recent rebound of $ZEC was mainly driven by expectations for the NU7 upgrade, but the capital flow has not fully cooperated.
Since October, Grayscale ZCSH ETF has seen cumulative redemptions of about $115 million, and futures open interest has dropped to around $2.25 billion, indicating that institutional and leveraged funds are still cooling down.
Technically, ZEC remains below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, showing clear short-term pressure.
Comparison with BTC and ETH
ZEC still belongs to the high Beta privacy coin event trading category, with very low correlation to BTC, currently only about 0.03.
BTC remains the market's main theme, ETH is weakly recovering; ZEC's trend depends more on its own upgrade catalysts, ETF capital flows, and privacy narratives rather than following the broader market.
If BTC continues to decline, ZEC's volatility will be further amplified; if BTC stabilizes, whether ZEC can strengthen again depends on whether capital is willing to continue supporting it around the NU7 launch.
What to watch next
Around November 5, the NU7 mainnet activation, whether ETF capital flows stop falling, and progress on Sprout pool migration.
Overall, ZEC is still an event-driven, highly volatile asset. Short-term chasing of gains carries high risk; it is more suitable to observe capital support within the 1,200–1,350 range. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ The downtrend is not over yet: off-exchange pressure is transmitting to the crypto space
This round of decline is not exclusive to crypto. The plunge in US tech stocks, weakening macro sentiment, and sell-offs in crypto markets are amplifying each other. The FOMC is an underestimated clue: although the 25bp rate cut in October was as expected, Powell clearly stated that "a further rate cut in December is not set in stone," causing the implied probability of a December rate cut in interest rate futures to plummet from over 90% to less than 70%. The easing trade is fading, with US stocks and Bitcoin both plunging intraday. The withdrawal of rate cut expectations hits risk asset valuations more directly than rate hikes.
US stock close on October 22: Nasdaq down 2.6%, S&P 500 down 1.21%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 6.7%.
On the capital side, from October 19 to 21, BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $1.075 billion over three days, but BTC still fell to around $81,000. ETF buying offsets selling pressure, but the bottoming effect is discounted amid the FOMC's repricing of the easing path.
In terms of levels, BTC's rebound above $84,000 is blocked; $81,800 to $82,300 is short-term resistance, and $80,000 is a key level to watch. ETH eyes $2,350; a break below could target $2,300.
Conclusion: The FOMC has withdrawn the "automatic pilot" rate cut expectation, and the rebound has not repaired the short-term weakness. The correction may not be over; watch for BTC to retest $80,000 and ETH to follow down over the weekend.
Market observation only, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH To be honest, I used to easily mishear "regulatory research" as "immediate deregulation," and my mind would jump ahead to the market scenario. Later, I realized that just because there is room for imagination about the direction, it doesn't mean there is already a timetable for implementation. Mixing these two things up easily leads to getting carried away.
According to South Korean media EDaily, the South Korean Financial Services Commission will study allowing cryptocurrency exchanges to participate in the security token offering (STO) market, involving issues such as investor protection, license integration, and dual operation permits. Chairman Lee Eok-won agrees with the proposal to develop STO using existing exchange technology and trading infrastructure, but this is not an official approval yet.
My judgment is: this is a positive signal mainly for industry infrastructure, not news that the entire crypto community can directly benefit from. This atmosphere is very much like previous policy rumors where everyone rushed to find connections to various concepts, and ordinary people are most likely to mistake "being related" for "benefiting."
The reason is simple: if reusing existing facilities is allowed, then the construction of the STO market might require less redundant investment, which is my speculation; but how licenses and investor protection are arranged will affect the participation threshold. Whether exchanges can participate and what conveniences ordinary users can get are still separated by specific rules.
I now stick to two rules: research plans are not the same as implementation notices; policy narratives are not direct reasons to open contracts. Work is already tough enough, surviving is more important than grabbing the first opportunity.
Have you ever mistaken "under research" for "already implemented" and fallen into a trap? When encountering such policy news, are you willing to share one of your own rules?