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#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus I believe the probability of Netflix's quarterly earnings exceeding expectations is limited.
The market's real focus is no longer just on revenue and profit growth, but whether this growth can be sustained and whether the advertising business can fulfill its long-term valuation. After the subscription business matures, advertising monetization indeed provides new growth space, but the potential of the new business does not equal an overperformance in the current period.
Even if revenue meets expectations and profit margins continue to improve, it may not be enough to bring surprises. If the market has already priced in high growth expectations for the advertising business, then a seemingly good earnings report may only meet expectations rather than exceed them.
Therefore, I pay more attention to the actual monetization speed of the advertising business, the quality of user growth, and management's guidance for the next few quarters. Under high expectations, Netflix needs to provide stronger incremental evidence to truly break market expectations.
My judgment: this quarter is more likely to meet expectations rather than significantly exceed them. Zuck is aggressively taking private AI fitness classes, spending tens of billions of dollars a year, and now the coaches want to evaluate. 🏋️
The market used to be tolerant: advertisers made money fiercely, AI expenses were treated like lottery tickets, which made sense. Now the environment has changed, with sticky inflation and high interest rates, the market has entered an audit period—after burning so much money, is there any impact?
Meta has three assignments to submit.
First, whether ads have been fattened by AI. The recommendation algorithms and conversion rates—AI’s contribution to ad revenue must be reflected in financial reports, or else it’s pure money burning.
Second, how to monetize Llama. Open-sourcing brought an ecosystem, but influence can’t offset depreciation costs. AI glasses, enterprise models, cloud revenue sharing—there must be a real path to actual cash flow.
Third, capital expenditure discipline. GPUs bought immediately start depreciating, and the profit statement is a public execution every quarter: was the spending worth it? The numbers will tell.
Don’t forget the metaverse’s past mistakes—hundreds of billions spent for a "strategic adjustment" apology letter. The market has a good memory; the same script won’t get a second round of applause.
The AI arms race truly has no retreat, but "no retreat" doesn’t mean "guaranteed returns." This evaluation tests not only the technology but also Zuck’s storytelling credit balance. After messing up once, the second time he has to pay back with numbers. 📊
#Meta’s massive AI investment enters the return verification period #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight, bullish$DNA raised 15 million, with 98.6% of the tokens held by the dog whales, starting at 0.04 and pumped 600% to attract retail investors to take the bags. Amber Group is both an investor and a market maker, setting the price and dumping it themselves. A typical "AI narrative + big institution endorsement + extreme control of the supply" triple play. Go long but exit if support breaks; wait 24 hours before shorting.Eighty-one thousand has been tested three times, it's not that no one is buying
$BTC dropped to around eighty-one thousand, and was hammered three times in three days.
Each time it did not break below.
What is this price level:
The real market average is seventy-eight thousand, ETF average cost is eighty-one thousand five hundred.
The current price is stuck between these two lines.
Institutions themselves are also at a loss.
What others think:
ETF is flowing out, retail investors are selling, it looks like it's going to end.
I think this looks more like turnover.
In seventy-two hours, whales have accumulated 15,000 coins.
At the moment it was triggered:
The cost line was repeatedly tested, indicating sellers are around this area.
Buyers are also around this area.
Whoever runs out of coins first loses.
What we really need to wait for is not a price rebound.
It's the day when ETF flows switch from outflow to inflow.
#ETF and whale capital divergence, can BTC hold $80,000?
#$BTC #VoiceOfTrading: Your experience deserves to be heard
Today's comment Q: Before getting back in, which confirmation signal do you value the most?
A: The biggest trap in crypto over the years has been "mistaking a rebound for a reversal." Many so-called entry signals are actually just a pullback continuation or emotional recovery. The losses veterans have suffered mostly come from:
Seeing a strong bullish candle on the 4-hour or daily chart and rushing in;
Only to find it was just a rebound within a larger downtrend on a higher timeframe;
Ending up getting crushed again and the position forced out.
So now, before entering, my core confirmation is:
At the weekly or daily level, a key resistance level is effectively broken (not a wick, but a close above and hold).
On the pullback, the former resistance turns into support and does not break.
During the breakout and pullback, there is decent volume support (not a low-volume fake pump).
Only when all three conditions are met do I consider the "structure changed," rather than just emotional fluctuations.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus #Fed's October rate hike probability drops to about 17%
[Old Leek Observation] The Fed's October rate hike probability drops to about 15%, but the market still doesn't dare to fully relax this time
The Fed's October meeting hasn't started yet, but market expectations for a rate hike have already cooled significantly.
According to market reports on October 16, CME FedWatch shows that traders' bets on the Fed raising rates by another 25 basis points this month have dropped to about 14.9%, down from around 27.7% the day before.
The key change lies in: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's latest speech did not release a clear signal of a rate hike, so the market readjusted its expectations.
For the crypto market, this counts as a relatively dovish macro signal. If expectations for further rate hikes continue to decline, the pressure from the dollar and interest rates may ease, and risk assets like BTC, ETH may also get some breathing room.
But don't rush to interpret this as "the good news has already landed."
US inflation remains an issue the Fed cannot avoid; less talk about future policy does not mean no rate hikes; a lower probability of a rate hike this month does not mean the risk of tightening within the year has completely disappeared.
I am more focused on the next two signals: one is whether inflation data will continue to pressure the Fed, and the other is whether $BTC can turn the improved macro sentiment into sustained price performance. #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus #Attack on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, oil transportation continues to be under pressure $CL
Oil passing through the strait has dropped from a daily average of 15.5 million barrels to 2.9 million barrels.
▪️ On 10/14, two Singapore-registered container ships were attacked in the strait, one caught fire and sank
▪️ On October 11, oil transported through the strait dropped to about 2.9 million barrels per day
▪️ In September, the daily average was about 15.5 million barrels, a drop of more than 80%
▪️ From 9/28 to 10/5, there were at least 12 attacks on oil and gas transport ships, the highest weekly total since the conflict began
▪️ On 10/5, an oil tanker was attacked, injuring 12 crew members
▪️ The US side said that on 10/12, it assisted in transporting over 19 million barrels through the strait in one day
The disagreement is not about the number of attacks, but whether the "transport pressure" is on the ships or the cargo.
The sunken ship was a container ship carrying container cargo; oil tankers follow different routes than container ships. What really affects oil prices is whether oil tankers can pass—the 2.9 million barrels figure does not include dark ships that have turned off their position signals, so the data itself is incomplete. The escort declaration and the sinking incident occurred simultaneously, indicating that who provides security for the passage remains unanswered.
The direction is to wait and see—only a continuous recovery in oil tanker traffic will be considered relief; if container ships continue to be attacked, insurance premiums will rise first.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight Optimistic about the advertising model, membership will eventually come to an endThe candlestick on October 15th deserves a separate mention.
To be serious. The candlestick on October 15th deserves a separate mention.
$DOGE hit a low of 0.0777 that day and closed back at 0.0812. The total volume was 2.03 billion coins, the highest since September 21st. The 4-hour candlestick at noon was even more obvious: a single volume of 1.24 billion coins, the price dipped down but then recovered, with a long lower shadow.
This data indicates two things. First, there really were buyers below 0.078. When the price dropped there, the buy orders not only held it but pushed the price back up, showing real money at work. Second, don’t rush to call the bottom. The RSI is still at 38, MACD is below the zero line, and the price is below all moving averages; the trend hasn’t strengthened yet, so one support doesn’t tell the whole story.
My view is simple: 0.0777 is the recent bottom line. If the close holds above it, look for recovery; if it closes below, honestly reassess. No guessing, just watch this one number.
Having watched the market for eleven years, the most valuable skill I’ve learned is to draw fewer conclusions. It’s a fact that there are buyers at the low; it’s also a fact that the trend hasn’t reversed. Both facts are here, the rest is up to time.😂 Besides CPI, the US September PPI also exploded! Inflation surged 6.3%, far exceeding the 5.4% expectation. Can the "soft landing" narrative still continue?
Let's look at the data first. The final demand PPI in September jumped 1.3% month-over-month, far surpassing the expected 0.5%, marking the largest single-month increase since March 2022. Year-over-year, it soared to 6.3%, the highest since December 2022, well above the 5.4% expectation.
Energy prices are the absolute main driver, with overall commodity prices rising 2.6%, the largest monthly increase on record. Among them, energy surged 10.8%, and gasoline skyrocketed 20.3% in a single month.
Core PPI was also active: excluding food, energy, and trade services, it rose 0.5% month-over-month and 5% year-over-year; excluding food and energy, the monthly increase was 0.7%, all higher than expected.
But the strange thing is the market's reaction: it actually didn't crash.
The S&P 500 closed up 0.33%, and the Nasdaq also closed up 0.08%. Why?
Because the day before, CPI had already shaken out the panic trades, and the market has become numb to "bad inflation news." Although the indexes didn't fall, funds are moving from AI and chip stocks to value stocks and small caps, risk aversion is rising, and the strong Bitcoin is also seeing a rebound. #Why is the first rebound after a sharp drop most likely to cause losses? BTC current increase +1.85%
During a major drop, the market is generally shrouded in fear, with clear risk perception. But once the price pulls up, FOMO sentiment spreads rapidly. Those who missed out rush to enter and catch up, while traders who originally planned to reduce positions, influenced by anchoring effect, start imagining a new round of upward trend. Much of this upward momentum is just short covering, not a return of long-term funds, so sustainability is questionable.
More than the rebound magnitude, three points are worth observing: whether ETFs can maintain continuous net inflows, whether spot trading volume expands in sync with the rebound, and whether the price can hold key levels after stabilizing and withstand pullbacks. If these three do not improve, a single bullish candle is insufficient to change the original judgment. If the market shows resilience against negative news, strong support on pullbacks, and continuous capital inflow, the view will be dynamically adjusted. I do not fixate on bullish or bearish positions.
Ask yourself: is your current judgment supported by capital signals, or is it driven by emotions triggered by the market? Once there is a volume breakout above key resistance, this observation logic no longer applies.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $NEAR has been quite strong recently, rising 14% in the past 24 hours, while $BTC only rose 2.2%. The correlation between the two is 0.68, with a beta of 2.88, indicating that $NEAR is leveraged following $BTC rather than moving independently. However, based on the beta, this BTC wave should only drive $NEAR up about 6%, so the remaining 7+ points are its own momentum, not just a simple follow-up rise. The price has now pulled back 3.95% from the previous high of $5.44, and it hasn't broken the previous low of $4.528 yet, so the structure remains intact. The open interest increased by 36.4% in 24 hours, and the funding rate is still positive, not turning negative, meaning bulls are still adding positions. The $5.185 level below has been tested 21 times, held 7 times, and broken 14 times; once it breaks, it’s likely to continue to test lower. If shorting, place a stop loss above $5.44; if it breaks below $5.185, I’ll wait and watch first, then look for opportunities once it stabilizes. Do you think this wave is a shakeout or will it continue to fall? #OKXTraderVoices $BTC stuck at 82000! The main force has swept out the bulls, who will be targeted next?
When the direction is unclear, controlling your hands is more valuable than anything.
News shows that short-term holders' positions have increased to 4.08 million coins, the highest since mid-June. New buyers' costs are concentrated between 82000 and 86000, with an average cost of about 74900. 74900 is the breakeven line for this group; falling below it will increase selling pressure.
Technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, BTC peaked at 87395 and has since declined, currently consolidating around 82000. Although MACD shows a golden cross, both DIF and DEA are below the zero line, indicating weak rebound momentum.
Capital flow:
Net outflow of 832 million in 24 hours, and a net outflow of 5.777 billion in the past 30 days. Continuous capital bleeding means the rebound lacks fuel.
Liquidation chart:
A large amount of long liquidation pressure is stacked between 73830 and 81750 below the current price, while short liquidations are between 83070 and 84390 above. The price is stuck in the middle, with risks on both sides.
Trading strategy:
Longs: Light long positions near 81750 to 82000 if stable, target around 83000 to 84000.
Shorts: Short positions under pressure near 83500 to 84000, target around 82000 to 81750.
Are you currently long or short? Comment below, and I'll help you decide whether to hold this position. Fan Xin will help you keep an eye on capital and liquidations, avoiding being market fuel.
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? In the past two days, I have been paying attention to some news related to CFX.
Domestically, Visa has been approved to prepare a bank card clearing institution within the country. Someone in the group shouted "Cross-border payment + Web3 is a big positive," saying CFX is going to soar.
But from a cross-border professional perspective, Visa holds a RMB bank card clearing license, clearing through traditional card organization networks, which has no direct relation to public chain tokens. Visa's overseas stablecoin settlement is true, but the premise for entering China is compliance, and the domestic crypto ban remains unchanged.
Looking at the market, CFX is currently priced at 0.05612, having previously surged from 0.037 to 0.078 before falling back. Now it is in an emotional digestion phase. So this news seems more like "narrative arbitrage" rather than a fundamental positive.
I will continue holding spot, but I will not chase the price high because of one piece of news. The long-term logic of cross-border Web3 can be discussed, but in the short term, we still have to watch policies and real adoption. $BTC $ZEC $CFX #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits a record high Today I came across some data: 81% of DOGE leveraged accounts on OKX are going long, and the long position ratio on Binance has also risen to 75.81%, increasing by nearly 6 points in one day.
81%. Think about it, people who use leverage are already bold, and now over 80% are betting on the same direction. Some say this is risky, with everyone crowded on one side, if it drops, there could be a chain liquidation.
But look at it from another angle, this wave of leveraged longs was added right after the market crash, when nearly $1 billion worth of positions were liquidated across the market. It’s not chasing highs in a good market, but bottom-fishing during others’ panic selling.
Also, I noticed a detail. The funding rate for perpetual contracts is only 0.01% every 8 hours, basically the exchange’s minimum standard, annualized at just 0.03%. On one hand, positions are heavily skewed long, but the funding rate hasn’t risen. What does this mean? It means the longs aren’t blindly rushing in; someone is steadily building positions, not rushing to pump or run.
$DOGE is now hovering around 0.082. With three-quarters of people aligned in direction, I’ll follow along and hold on for now. Yesterday, after the PPI surged and Bitcoin fell below 80,000 only to recover, today it has been grinding between 80,000 and 82,600 all day. The 24-hour high was 82,643, just $9 above this morning's rebound high of 82,634, meaning it hasn't moved much all day. The total 24-hour liquidations across the network dropped from $973 million yesterday to $320 million, and for the first time longs and shorts are nearly balanced—longs at $171 million, shorts at $150 million. The one-sided panic from yesterday has passed. Why say this? Because three things all played out in the least bad way. First, at 11:30 AM, Warsh's speech at the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok came out, his last statement before the quiet period. He chose not to set any tone: refusing to predict whether there will be a rate hike in October, only saying the world is "roughly in line with expectations since the September meeting," and he affirmed the US investment boom—so the feared "hawkish tone and retest of 80,000" this morning did not happen. Second, at 4 PM, Deribit options settlement passed smoothly, with prices not "pinned" at 80,000, indicating market makers' hedging did not create new volatility. Third, the batch of leverage liquidated last night was real: 84,257 people were liquidated in 24 hours, the largest single trade was a $4.81 million BTC long on Binance. After the washout, today's long and short liquidations are balanced, and the leverage structure is actually healthier than yesterday. But don't be fooled by the emotional recovery. The fear and greed index has shifted from $NEAR's performance today is quite outstanding.
The price has reached around $5.29, with a 24-hour increase of over 15%, and a rise of more than 100% in the past 30 days.
This round of NEAR's surge is somewhat different from the past when it was purely about speculating on public chain performance. Now the project is developing around NEAR Intents, chain abstraction, and AI Agent.
NEAR Intents allow users to complete cross-chain operations by expressing transaction intentions, without having to manage the transaction processes of different networks step by step themselves.
If this mechanism can attract more real users, its significance to the NEAR ecosystem will be much greater than simply improving TPS.
However, NEAR had previously approached $6, then experienced a noticeable pullback. It has now returned to around $5.3, with a short-term focus on whether it can break through $5.5.
If it stabilizes again, there is still a chance to retest $6.
#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother.
From past historical experience, after every US midterm election, Bitcoin often undergoes a deep pullback. Looking back at previous rounds of data: after the 2014 election, it dropped 46.7%, after the 2018 election, it dropped 50.6%, and after the 2022 election, it also dropped 14.9%. A dip after the election has almost become an unavoidable old script.
But this year's macro environment is completely different from the past. The September PPI year-on-year surged directly to 6.3%, the largest increase since 2022; the CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, and the core inflation data also exceeded market expectations. The shock on the energy side is being transmitted down the industrial chain, with diesel prices rising 21% and airfares jumping 5%. CME interest rate futures are betting that the probability of a rate hike in December is approaching 90%.
Inflation is not coming down, and rate hike expectations are rising, so the entire risk asset market is taking a hit. However, the current market structure is also different; the spot Bitcoin ETF has opened a new entry channel for corporate funds, and institutional participation is much higher than a few years ago. Some traders speculate that even if there is a pullback after the election, it is more likely to form a higher low than before, rather than directly hitting a cycle bottom.
History always rhymes when it repeats, but it never copies exactly the same.
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus $BTC $ETH $ZEC #MajiBro 6100 ETH Long Position, Looks Converged but Risk Remains High
6100 ETH, this position size is the core to observe Maji's current operation. Many are curious, after continuous market shocks, has he become more cautious?
This 25x full-position long was opened at an average price of $2398.52, with the current position value at $14,895,600, an unrealized profit of $264,600, and an estimated liquidation price of $2404.33. The account lost $586,600 in the past 7 days, recovered $116,800 in 24 hours, but overall still has a cumulative loss of $36,442,000. The position value corresponds to an ETH price of about $2442, only 1.54% away from the liquidation price. The unrealized profit looks good, but the tolerable drawdown space is very small.
You can see the position has shrunk, but it's unclear whether this is an active reduction or due to limited available funds. He still bets on an ETH rebound; the so-called "convergence" might have a completely different standard from ordinary people 😮. Where do you set your ETH limit orders or stop-loss points?
$ETH $BTC $SOL The bull is here, but we still need to be cautious. Looking at the liquidation data, the current market sentiment for $BTC $ETH #ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？
From the latest liquidation stats, we can read some market psychology:
For BTC, in the past hour, long liquidations far exceed shorts, indicating a short-term sweep of longs upward; over 12-24 hours, long and short liquidations are nearly equal, showing the overall direction is still a tug-of-war with no clear winner.
ETH is even more interesting. In 24 hours, short liquidations dominate, with many bearish bets washed out, showing stronger short-term resilience on the long side.
Nearly 80,000 people liquidated today, with total liquidations exceeding $322 million, which shows the volatility is quite damaging.
With high leverage, even if you pick the right direction, a sudden spike can easily knock you out.
The market is never about who predicts best, but who survives longest. Don’t be greedy for short-term gains. I also have positions #we can learn from each other. BTC has already run today, then the market reset$#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Tesla's stock price has recently been fluctuating around $360, with a pre-market surge of nearly 5%. The Q3 earnings report is scheduled for release after the market closes on October 21. Wall Street expects adjusted earnings per share of about $0.45, down approximately 10% year-over-year, and revenue of about $27.78 billion, a slight decline of 1.1% year-over-year. Goldman Sachs maintains a neutral rating with a target price of $360, believing that the production ramp-up of the Model Y L is likely to drive improvements in the automotive business, but rising costs and increased capital expenditures may limit EPS upside. Why should the crypto market pay attention to this earnings season? Because the correlation between BTC and tech stocks is systematically increasing. At the beginning of 2026, the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 once reached 0.75, and changes in risk appetite for tech stocks are transmitting more quickly to crypto asset prices. This is no coincidence. Companies like Tesla, Meta, Microsoft, and Google are no longer just tech stocks; they are barometers of risk asset sentiment. When the market is optimistic about AI narratives and growth prospects, capital flows into tech stocks and crypto assets; when earnings guidance disappoints, both tend to come under pressure simultaneously. The upcoming earnings calendar is worth watching closely: October 20, Netflix leads off. October 21, Tesla reports. October 28, Alphabet and Microsoft report on the same day. November 4, Meta closes the season. The entire tech sector's Q3 earnings are expected to grow 43.3% year-over-year, making it the largest contributor to S&P 500 earnings growth. What really matters is not the numbers, but the stance on AI. Market #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 上次写那篇「周末那一刀」的时候，我给 CPI 下了个判断：整体同比摸到 3.7%、核心环比压在 0.2% 以内，BTC 去摸 84,500 那道墙；核心环比要是跑上 0.3%，加息概率就往上蹿，BTC 先测 82,000，破了看 80,000。 话音刚落，数据就打脸打在 0.3% 这档上。 周三（10/14）晚上出来的 9 月 CPI：整体同比 3.7%（预期 3.6%、前值 3.4%），核心环比正好 0.3%（预期 0.2%）。汽油一个月涨了 9.1%，撑起一半多的涨幅。消息一出，BTC 当天最低砸到 80,760 美元——我说的那个 8 万，它真去了。 这图我故意做成"实际 vs 预期"。你看出来没：CPI 是烫手的（红，高于预期），但第二天（10/15）的 PPI 反而回凉了——整体环比 0.4% 低于预期 0.5%，核心环比 0.2% 也低于预期 0.3%。 信号是分裂的。CPI 热，说明终端通胀还黏；PPI 凉，说明上游没那么猛。市场那帮人最怕的就是这种"看不懂"，所以周三 ETF 直接净流出 3.9 亿美金：BTC 那只 2.61$STRK 50x top short, liquidity harvesting at the unlock window
Entry: 0.08674 | Current price: 0.07593 | Margin profit: +7.1x
Core logic: The unlocking of 127 million tokens on 10/15 (about $11 million) is verifiable on-chain, forming a deterministic sell pressure schedule. 0.08674 is the dense distribution zone of this narrative's main upward phase, with three diminishing volume rallies — this is a traceable volume-price divergence, not hindsight storytelling. CPI exceeding expectations only accelerated this process, compressing the "narrative-driven overvaluation" into a "liquidity-driven decline."
Execution discipline: The 7x odds opportunity comes from prior verification, not from 50x leverage. The first 50% position is taken profit at the initial support zone, the remaining position's stop loss is moved up to 0.0780 to lock in positive returns, using 10% of the position to bet on a breakout continuation.
If wrong: Exit upon a reverse breakout above 0.0880 (pre-unlock high), with losses controllable within 10% of the margin. $BTC $ETH #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus Latest news on US-Iran dynamics, one message requires a downgrade correction:
1. As mentioned yesterday, the US Department of Energy proposed temporarily lifting sanctions on the "shadow fleet" to buffer international energy supply issues. However, market analysts today believe the energy output from the shadow fleet may be insufficient to offset the shortfall caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, so
2. Washington's economic sanctions on Tehran have intensified, already affecting the foreign exchange settlement channels between Iranian domestic banks and overseas banks. The US economic sanctions on Iran have escalated.
3. The new agreement negotiations between Iran and Oman on the "Strait of Hormuz" have been completed, but whether it can be activated depends on political negotiations between the US and Iran.
From the current situation, alternative transport routes outside the Strait of Hormuz have been temporarily ruled out, meaning that whether it is energy supply or geopolitics, the focus returns to the US-Iran situation.
Regarding the US-Iran situation, there is currently not much effective information. My personal worst-case scenario considers the turning point to be after October 27 and before November 3. If there is no positive change during this period, the US-Iran situation really needs to be viewed pessimistically! #StraitOfHormuzMerchantShipAttack, oil transportation continues to be under pressure ZEC rose 13% in one day, reigniting expectations for the altcoin season.
The market is still rebounding. BTC is currently at $82,315, up 1.83% in 24 hours; ETH is at $2,476, up 5.6% in 24 hours, outperforming BTC. Altcoins have even greater elasticity; ZEC is at $1,231, up 13.21%, leading among popular coins, with funds now most concentrated here.
Ultimately, it’s still liquidity expectations driving this. Looking at the total stablecoin dominance on the weekly chart, the Wave 2 correction may be nearing its end. If it subsequently breaks below the daily pin bar low and then moves into Wave 3, incremental stablecoin funds could flow back in. A decline in stablecoin dominance usually means a rise in risk appetite, with high Beta altcoins and ETH often benefiting first. ETH outperforming BTC this round and ZEC surging with volume fits this background.
However, this rebound is driven by liquidity expectations, not fundamental confirmation. For sharp rises like ZEC’s, just follow the trend and avoid rushing in to catch the falling knife when sentiment is hottest.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike within the year? #Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus Netflix is currently facing a very real problem: pure subscription growth has basically hit a ceiling, and relying on continuous price increases to boost revenue is becoming increasingly difficult. The market is now focused on whether the advertising business can take on the growth mantle. Here's my take: ✅Positive logic: Low-cost ad packages have become a powerful tool for attracting new users, with over 60% of new users in many regions choosing the ad-supported version directly. The growth rate of the advertising business far exceeds that of traditional subscription revenue, meaning that with unchanged content costs, the same group of users can generate both membership fees and advertising fees simultaneously, directly boosting profit margins. Advertisers' willingness to invest continues to rise, and institutions estimate that advertising revenue could double this year. ⚠️But we shouldn't be blindly optimistic The streaming market is highly competitive, with Disney and Amazon Video also vying for users, and the advertising industry itself facing price wars. Moreover, Netflix spends huge amounts on content annually, and advertising revenue currently accounts for a relatively small portion of total revenue, making it difficult in the short term to fully offset the pressure from slowing subscription user growth. If there is a gap in hit series releases and user viewing time declines, ad fill rates will come under pressure. Market views on both sides: Bullish: Advertising is a second growth curve; as ad technology improves and the advertiser base expands, profits can continue to grow over the long term, leaving room for valuation recovery. Cautious: Advertising is still in its early stages and relatively small in scale, only adding a little extra benefit and unable to fundamentally solve the underlying problem of slowing user growth. If ad prices fall short of expectations, the positive outlook could easily fall through. Trading focus: Upcoming earnings reports will focus heavily on advertising revenue,$LINK
LINK rebounds over 3%, does infrastructure importance necessarily mean outperforming?
Spot price rose about 3.39% in 24 hours, ranging between 11.824—12.606, with the price positioned at the upper end, gains close to ETH. Currently, it looks more like a synchronized correction, not enough to confirm a clear excess trend.
The importance of data services is not the same as token demand growth. It is necessary to verify how service usage translates into fees, staking, or other real demand; the intermediate steps cannot be omitted.
If the 12.606 breakout holds and relative performance against ETH continues to improve, independent strength is more credible; if the upper boundary is repeatedly resisted, it should continue to be treated as a range. If 11.824 is lost, the correction assessment needs to be downgraded; industry status cannot replace price support.After the CPI data was released, BTC fell below 80,000 dollars, then rebounded back to around 82,000. Asian stock markets also rose together, as the market is slowly digesting the panic caused by the data.
Some asked Yaoyao if this rebound was because Australia is about to introduce a cryptocurrency transaction reporting bill?
Actually, this bill is still just a draft and has not officially come into effect. BTC's recent rise seems more like a coincidence in timing.
This is all part of the crypto industry's long-term compliance direction, with little short-term impact on the market. It's like the recent SOL team coming to Shanghai for blockchain planning—these are long-term matters that hardly affect the short-term market in the past few days.
Next, focus on two things:
1. ETF fund inflows and outflows next Monday
2. U.S. Treasury yields, using these two signals to judge the market direction ahead. #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #U.S. CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus $BTC $ETH Before Tesla's earnings report this time, the catalysts have indeed been quite intense. The Roadster just completed a new round of presentations, and Wall Street has started seriously discussing the possibility of a merger with SpaceX. Next, on October 21 after the U.S. stock market closes, the Q3 earnings report will be revealed. Personally, I think these factors have the potential to boost Tesla's performance. But to judge how far the market can go, we need to separate the excitement brought by product launches from the actual returns shareholders will ultimately receive. The Roadster can improve the market's perception of Tesla's technical capabilities, and merger expectations might bring additional valuation premiums. The task of the earnings report is to convince investors that the company can withstand this round of investment. Deliveries have already exceeded expectations; next, we need to see how much profit is made from selling cars. Looking at the current consensus on Wall Street for Tesla's Q3, the estimate is about $27.8 billion in revenue and $0.44 earnings per share. Different institutions have slightly different models, but overall, the market's profit expectations are not aggressive. Vehicle delivery numbers have already been announced: 486,500 units delivered in Q3, about 5.3% higher than the market expectation of 462,000 units. This supports the revenue. Meanwhile, energy storage deployment was only 13.7 GWh, below the previous expectation of 15.9 GWh, so whether the energy business can contribute enough profit still needs to be verified by the earnings report. Therefore, saying "deliveries exceeded expectations" on the day of the earnings report no longer provides much new information. What really matters is at what price these cars were sold and how much profit was consumed by promotions and financing incentives. In Q2, according to the earnings data,#MSCI new rules may remove Strategy and other BTC treasury companies from the index $MSTR
A change in classification standards could cause about $11.6 billion in passive holdings to lose buyers.
▪️ MSCI excludes companies classified as non-operating businesses from the global equity benchmark index under the new framework
▪️ The new framework takes effect after market close on November 30 and will be implemented in the index review in November 2026
▪️ The screening criteria are operating assets and five financial ratios
▪️ Market estimates suggest passive funds may be forced to sell about 13 million shares, approximately $11.6 billion
▪️ The same list also includes coin-holding companies like Metaplanet
▪️ This decision does not mean immediate removal; MSCI will first conduct financial assessments of constituent stocks
The disagreement is not about whether to remove, but whether the term "non-operating" refers to assets or business.
Index compilation looks at comparable operating metrics—revenue, profit margin, employees, and fixed assets. A company whose main assets are crypto holdings naturally scores low on these metrics. Passive funds buy mechanically according to weight; once the weight drops to zero, there are no buyers; the sellers are index funds, not actively bearish funds.
The direction is to wait and see—only when the November review list is published will it be finalized; without the list, selling pressure remains only an estimate."ZEC's Countertrend Surge Feels More Like a Trap"
ZEC surged sharply from 1073 to 1221, making the market quite lively, but I don't believe this is a trend reversal. BTC and ETH are still drifting downwards, yet ZEC is running solo. Such divergence usually isn't a sign of strength but of intent.
Looking at the long-short ratio, it's 20% to 80%, with retail traders heavily short. The main players first pull it up a bit; the easiest way is to trigger high-leverage shorts. But if a big move were really coming, why can't it even touch 1250, let alone the previous high of 1253? Between 1240 and 1300 lies a pile of previous trapped positions, which requires real capital to break through. Now the volume is even lower than during the decline—what could possibly free it?
Moreover, the expectation for the November network upgrade has already been priced in, and ETF funds are still flowing out. Pumping before the positive news is often a way to unload. So-called independent rallies usually don't last long in a weak market. Low-volume rebounds, countertrend pumps, and dense shorts look more like textbook bull traps.
One bullish candle won't change beliefs or bring new capital. Those chasing in might not be boarding but rather taking the bag.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be more rate hikes this year?
#ETF and whale funds diverge, can BTC hold $80,000? $BLUR perpetual contract 20x short position, opened at 0.01219, currently 0.01074, unrealized profit +237.89%.
Logic: Blur announced the shutdown of its frontend on November 12, Blend stopped new lending matches. NFT monthly trading volume plummeted from 1.43 billion to less than 7 million. Protocol revenue approaches zero, BLUR has degraded into a zombie governance token lacking value capture. Coupled with token unlock selling pressure (continuing until 2027), Upbit suspending deposits, and the shutdown of related Blast, the selling pressure above 0.01219 is extremely heavy, liquidity drying up causing a downward trend. Using 20x leverage to short at the top, odds and risk control need to be balanced.
Operation: Take profits in batches (recommend securing 95%), move stop profit above cost (0.01219) to lock in gains, keep a very small position to speculate on downside. $BTC $ETH #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises $ARB surged over 16% today
Finally, someone bought into the L2 sector!
$ARB rebounded to around $0.20 today, rising more than 16% in 24 hours, showing a very strong performance.
Recently, there have been several notable developments in Arbitrum.
First, the USDG stablecoin has been natively deployed on Arbitrum, and DeFi protocols like Fluid, Morpho, and GMX have started supporting it.
Second, Arbitrum is attracting more capital and applications into its ecosystem through a stablecoin incentive program.
This could help increase usage on the Arbitrum network.
However, one thing to distinguish: the development of the Arbitrum ecosystem does not necessarily mean the ARB token will benefit simultaneously.
ARB currently mainly serves governance functions, and the value transmission between network revenue and token holders remains a market consideration.
In the short term, $0.20 has been reclaimed.
If it can maintain above this level going forward, I will continue to watch the performance around $0.22 #Tesla Delivery Beats Expectations, Profit Recovery Becomes the Focus
The boss has something to say
Tesla released its Q3 earnings after the market closed on October 21. Deliveries reached 486,500 vehicles, exceeding market expectations, but still down 2.1% year-over-year.
The market bets a 78% probability of earnings beating expectations, but I don't focus on deliveries, I look at gross margin. High-margin US vehicles are declining, while the proportion of low-margin Chinese vehicles is rising, putting pressure on overall vehicle gross margin. Delivery beats don't equal earnings beats. The price war is still ongoing; whether cash flow can improve is the key.
If gross margin continues to be pressured, Tesla's stock price will fall, tech stock sentiment will cool down, and Bitcoin will be indirectly affected. If gross margin recovers, combined with new progress in Robotaxi or Optimus, risk appetite will warm up, which is mildly positive for crypto. But Tesla is not a crypto asset; it cannot change Bitcoin's direction.
The main conflict for Bitcoin remains CPI and US Treasury yields. September CPI was 3.7% year-over-year, core CPI 2.6%, inflation has risen for three consecutive months, and rate hike expectations are heating up. The 30-year US Treasury yield is 5.7%, and high interest rates are suppressing risk assets. After taking a short position at 81,500 and capturing a wave, Bitcoin rebounded strongly; currently, I am out of position.
Resistance above is seen at 84,000 to 85,000, support below at 80,000. Holding 82,000 means consolidation; breaking below 80,000 suggests a deeper pullback. Do not chase the rally or sell into the dip. Wait for a pullback near 80,000 to see if it holds; if volume shrinks and it doesn't break, lightly try going long with a stop loss at 79,000.
Tesla's earnings report is an industry validation, not a directional switch. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Just chatting casually about tonight's market
The data is no longer repetitive, CPI and PPI keep exploding, and CME's year-end rate hike probability has reached 96%.
$BTC is fluctuating around 82000, actually broke 80,000 early this morning, touched a low of 79,800, then pulled back. It looks like it held, but since it was tested once at this level, I’m not confident.
$ETH bounced from 2325 to 2463, about six or seven percent, with little volume increase. I placed a short position at 2463, now it’s grinding near the cost, no panic. There’s a moving average resistance between 2490 and 2500 above, whether it can bounce up there, I have a clear idea.
$SOL is hovering around 105, weaker than BTC and ETH; if the market crashes again, it will definitely be the fastest to fall.
My view is simple: don’t mistake this rebound for a reversal. With rate hikes almost fully priced in at 96%, the bulls really don’t have the strength; the rebound is just setting up short positions. I’ve already entered my first position; if 2400 breaks, I’ll look down to 2374. Only if it truly holds above 2500 will I acknowledge it. The storage sector is still taking hits tonight, with only the landlord stock rising instead of falling
$SNDK 1364, hammered down 4 points again from 1430 💀
SanDisk is one of the worst performers in storage this round. After the news of China Changxin's DRAM breakthrough, the market has been selling off. Can SanDisk's own storage business maintain high growth? The earnings report hasn't come out yet, so the funds are running first. The 1364 level has retraced quite a bit from the high, but buyers are still hesitant.
$xMU 913, Micron is a bit tougher than SanDisk but didn't escape either 🏭
Dropped from 935 to 913, down 1.8 points. Can HBM4 drive SK Hynix's profits to new highs again? The whole storage sector is selling first and asking questions later. Micron has a layout in HBM, but short-term panic over Chinese competition outweighs the long-term logic. 913 is not far from the previous low.
$SLX 0.05194, while manufacturing plummets, it actually turned green 🏚️
Wafer fab leasing and storage chip manufacturing are two different things. Long-term leases are locked in, rent is collected regardless of chip price fluctuations. Changxin's breakthrough affects manufacturing profit margins, but the landlord in leasing has become a safe haven. SLX turning green on a night when storage collectively crashes shows that funds can distinguish clearly.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#KoreanStocksRecoveryRebound, can foreign selling pressure ease? #Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus
📉 Predicting Tesla's Q3 earnings in advance: I'm not very optimistic about beating expectations this time.
First, looking at delivery data, Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in Q3, which is higher than market expectations but still a 2.1% year-on-year decline.
I think the most important thing here is not how many cars were sold, but how much profit these sales will ultimately bring.
In Q2, Tesla's automotive business gross margin excluding regulatory credits was only 16.3%. With price competition not fully easing, a rebound in sales does not necessarily mean profitability will recover as well.
So my judgment is: revenue might not be too bad, but EPS and profit margins may not surprise the market.
Stories like AI and Robotaxi do have imaginative potential, but how much of that is already priced into the stock? If actual performance can't keep up, relying solely on future narratives will likely struggle to sustain the valuation.
This time, I choose to be cautiously bearish and don't really believe Tesla can deliver a fully better-than-expected earnings report.
Of course, the market always has surprises; let's wait for the data to come out.
Do you think Tesla can prove the bears wrong this time?👀 Regulatory focus is shifting towards on-chain institutions rather than public chains. The statement from the founder of Hyperliquid indicates that future compliance pressure will fall on the operating entities, which is not a bad thing for both CEX and on-chain derivatives.
At TOKEN2049, Ourbit launched SuperCEX, and the Hong Kong Carnival is scheduled for next April. Institutional funds have not fully entered the market yet.
TIA just swept away a batch of short positions at 0.705. The short-term EMA is trending upwards, but the dense liquidation zone is between 0.72 and 0.73, where trapped positions are pressing down.
The current price is 0.6993; I won't chase the high and will wait for a pullback to 0.686–0.692 before going long.
I just climbed to the sixth floor to complete an order, still catching my breath, when my phone rang and I immediately checked the market.
Set defensive stop loss at 0.677, take profit first at 0.718, and if it breaks through, then look at 0.728.
$TIA
#US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations; will there be another rate hike within the year?
@OKX Planet #AnthropicIPO valuation expectations drop to 1.5 trillion $ANTHROPIC
The quoted price dropped from about 2 trillion to about 1.5 trillion, cutting about 30 times its quarterly revenue.
▪️ Valuation discussed by some investors at the 10/15 investor day is about 1.5 trillion USD
▪️ Previous expectation for the November issuance was about 2 trillion USD
▪️ Q3 revenue was 16.8 billion USD, profitable on an adjusted basis
▪️ Q1 revenue was 11.6 billion, more than doubled in Q2, growth slowed in Q3
▪️ Issuance plan still in November, specific date not yet determined
▪️ OpenAI's IPO plan is scheduled for next year
The disagreement is not whether 1.5 trillion is expensive, but whether the "downward adjustment" changes the valuation or the growth rate.
The primary market valuation is determined by the latest round transaction price or investor quotes, while the secondary market looks at the slope of growth. Revenue growth slowed from doubling to deceleration, changing the latter assumption, not the already realized 16.8 billion. The price quote dropping before the issuance pricing reflects the multiple buyers are willing to pay.
The direction is to wait and see — the official pricing range announcement will be the final confirmation; if growth slows another notch, 1.5 trillion may not be the bottom.#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year?
$SNDK US stock pre-market analysis: Will SanDisk rise back to 1400 tonight or fall back to the bottom?
Market sentiment is mostly bullish; many believe that the rebound from 1278 to 1360 signals a reversal and market recovery, so they enter long positions. Binance's long-short ratio is already over 4, but has the situation really reversed?
Some analyses clearly point out that after SanDisk rebounded from 1278 to around 1400, it never effectively broke through the key resistance level. This rebound after a decline looks more like a correction within a bearish trend rather than a reversal. 1400 is a very strong resistance level because during the previous three attempts to reach 1800 and 1900, the price consolidated in this area for a long time. After breaking down, support turned into resistance, making it very difficult to climb back up.
Looking at other struggling stocks in the storage sector, Hynix has already dropped to 953, nearly catching up to SanDisk's price, which was 1234 on October 12. If you consider SanDisk as the main coin, Hynix is at least a SOL, right? In the same sector, it's impossible for you to fall while I rise if not for you falling less. The news is also completely unfavorable. It’s imaginable how many SanDisk long positions will be trapped tonight.Tesla surged today, but Dogecoin got criticized again. Its performance is far behind privacy coin ZEC and dark horse INJ.
$DOGE is the clone of clones, nothing without Musk. It dropped 1.5% today, 2.4% this week. Trading volume is 3.8 times the usual, with 170 million U turnover in one day.
Those who bought in six months ago are still down 30%. Although it has passed its steepest drop, it’s not cheap enough yet, not a starting point.
$ZEC rose 4.09% today, the only one with real catalysts. Just yesterday, 17.9 million dollars of longs were liquidated, and today it climbed back from 1100, with funding rate +32.95%. The lead is testing the network evaluation on 10/20; if it passes, the mainnet activation NU7 is set for November 5.
$INJ is today’s dark horse, up 14.69%, the strongest. IIP-709 Gas fee voting ends on October 17, Gulf Labs has become a validator, and Staked ETF is under SEC review. But it has already surged from 8.35 to the 9.5 resistance level; chasing higher is catching the last baton.
DOGE is just rotating in place, ZEC is betting on an upgrade, INJ is betting on institutions; the stories of the first two are not over yet. #Netflix growth may slow down, advertising business becomes a new highlight However, the current dosage of advertising is still too small—even if it meets the target, it only accounts for about 6% of total revenue, and the per-user revenue of advertising package users is still lower than that of standard packages. The key point is: whether advertising can truly increase the per-user value before subscription growth stalls#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Q: Before getting back in, which confirmation signal do you value the most?
It depends on the coin. For mainstream coins like $BTC and $ETH, the first consideration is technical signals combined with macro factors. For example, the rallies of ETH and BTC in late August.
Secondly, at present, if liquidity tightens and market expectations worsen, as long as key support levels for BTC and ETH like 78000 and 2280 are not broken, the pullbacks are relatively more of a phased "opportunity."
Thirdly, for project-backed coins, more attention is paid to valuation bottoms and macro factors. For example, some mainstream coins like $HYPE, which have relatively low valuations plus project support, won’t experience the slow, long-term downturn typical of ordinary altcoins. The lower valuation and "project sustainability" also influence holders’ mentality differently, waiting for "value to return."
For altcoins, more focus is on community enthusiasm and the strength of rallies, concentration of holdings, and whether KOLs bought in early. Lab is impressive in this regard, and KOL buying has sparked some discussion. Coins similar to Lab, rave, etc.
@OKX星球 @妍妍Eleven_OKX 进口物价数据刚砸出来，1.1%，预期才0.8%，前值还被砍到0.5%。这玩意儿偏热偏得有点离谱了，通胀压不住，降息这事儿又得往后搁。美元一强，币这边先吃一拳是跑不掉的。
大饼现在这位置本来就卡着，82600-82000磨了半天，4小时中轨82561过不去，1小时中轨82047贴着晃。数据一出来，短线承压是明牌，但大饼是锚，砸起来比以太有底。
不追空。数据刚出的第一波下杀全是情绪盘，追进去大概率被反抽扫。等15分钟收完，看82000-81600那片支撑区接不接得住。下影拉起来、实体收回去，说明有人在接，震荡继续；收不回，中轨松手，往下看80700-79800。
大饼跌的时候慢、插针宽、回收快。1.1%的数据够它今晚折腾，但别在数据尖刺上动手，等K线自己选完方向再跟。$BTC $ETH $ZEC Driving Logic: "All Bad News Priced In" Style Rebound After the PPI Nuclear Bomb
① The PPI data is nuclear bomb level, but the market reaction is surprising
September PPI month-on-month +1.3%, far exceeding the expected +0.5%, the largest single-month increase since March 2022; year-on-year +6.3%, the highest since December 2022. After the data release, BTC briefly fell below $80,000 but quickly recovered—the core reason being the decline rather than rise in US Treasury yields.
The 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 5.36% to 5.105%, and the US dollar index weakened simultaneously. The driving force behind this divergence comes from massive capital outflows from AI/semiconductor stocks—20 leading AI and semiconductor stocks lost over $1 trillion in market value within 4 trading days, with funds flowing into US Treasuries for safety, pushing yields down.
Fidelity's findings are noteworthy: the correlation between Bitcoin and the real yield of the US 10-year Treasury has exceeded 0.6, a new high. Historically, rising real yields suppress risk assets, but this time the relationship has reversed—partly because the US debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and the market is beginning to price BTC as a "debt depreciation hedge" rather than a pure risk asset.
② The probability of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady in October rises to 73%
Despite the hot PPI data, Federal Reserve officials have sent cautious signals, and the market-implied probability of maintaining rates in October has risen to 73%. This provides a breathing room for BTC's short-term recovery.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus BTC liquidity concentration zone: 81700 is the critical line between bulls and bears
Last night $BTC dipped to 79700 before rebounding to 82600. It looks strong but is actually unconfirmed. The most crucial liquidity concentration zone currently is at 81700—where a large number of long stop losses and leveraged liquidations are clustered. In the past 24 hours, liquidations totaled $830 million, with longs accounting for 79.5%, indicating that bullish positions have been cleared once.
But the risk lies in this: after breaking through 80,000, new buy orders below have noticeably weakened, with more defenses placed around 78,000. If 81700 breaks with volume, a liquidity vacuum may form below, potentially accelerating the price drop toward 78,000.
Derivatives also do not support chasing longs: Binance funding rate is -0.0073%, meaning shorts pay; long positions account for 61.97% of accounts, but active long trades are only 42.01%. Positions want to rise, but trades are selling—typical divergence, the rebound lacks fresh momentum.
Trader's judgment:
Short-term consolidation between 81700 and 82600 to digest. Only if it holds above 82600 and the funding rate turns positive can we expect buyers to return; if 81700 breaks, watch the 78000 liquidity zone first. Citibank's 113,000 target is just a mid-to-long-term narrative, not for short-term leverage.
Today, focus on two signals:
1. The battle for 81700 between bulls and bears;
2. Whether the funding rate can turn positive.
Whether 81700 breaks or not will decide if BTC is in recovery or a second dip. Are you bullish or bearish? See you in the comments.