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🔥盘面解读｜韩股重挫，存储板块承压，今晚美股开盘预判
配图核心信息：韩国KOSPI盘中大跌超6%，触发Sidecar程序化卖盘暂停机制；SK海力士大跌超8%、三星电子跌近7%，连带日经225跌超3%，日韩芯片股集体走弱。$SNDK $MU
✅事件逻辑
韩股本轮杀跌核心就是半导体存储板块，市场担忧长鑫存储技术突破带来长期供给冲击，叠加通胀、利率预期扰动，资金集中抛售存储芯片标的。三星、SK海力士作为全球DRAM两大龙头大跌，会直接给美股存储股（美光MU、闪迪SNDK）带来情绪传导压力。
📊今晚美股开盘推演
1. 盘前情绪：存储板块大概率低开承压。日韩存储巨头大跌，属于板块负面情绪外溢，美光、闪迪开盘容易受拖累。但要区分：这是远期竞争预期利空，并非企业当期业绩暴雷。
2. 分化机会
美光MU：业务覆盖DRAM，受韩股下跌联动冲击更强，波动更大。
闪迪SNDK：主营NAND闪存，和DRAM赛道无直接竞争。若资金理性区分赛道，后续有机会走出相对抗跌行情。
3. 大盘变量
不能只看韩股，美债收益率、今晚PPI数据、纳指整体情绪，影响力同样很大。如果美债收益率回落，会对冲一部分芯片板块的恐慌。TSMC's Q3 financial report is out, with explosive numbers, but the stock price fell. Revenue grew 50.9% year-over-year to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, net profit increased 68.7% year-over-year to 763.1 billion, setting a new quarterly high and exceeding market expectations. The 2nm process accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, and advanced processes overall account for 79%. AI chip demand continues to support performance, this fundamental base is very solid. But the stock price dropped 2.67%. The issue lies in the gross margin guidance. The company gave a range of 65% to 67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%. The market worries that even if AI chip demand remains strong, if gross margin declines, it indicates that cost pressures in advanced processes are eating into profits. Additionally, whether capital expenditures will be further increased is something to watch next. For BTC, this is not direct, but the underlying logic is connected. TSMC is a core supplier of AI computing infrastructure; its revenue and profit validate that AI demand is real, and the narrative of the computing power economy remains intact. BTC's long-term logic as the underlying anchor still holds. However, the weak gross margin guidance indicates that the cost of burning cash is rising, affecting the entire semiconductor chain.$SKHYNIX SNDK $SKHYNIX Hynix starts to consolidate while SanDisk plunges sharply!!!
Institutions begin to support Hynix, so Chai didn't dare to short it, but this time Chai plans to short SanDisk hard.
Recently, Chinese manufacturers have substantially overtaken; Yangtze Memory has completed overtaking in the NAND market, and ChangXin Memory's breakthrough in the DRAM field has caused panic across the entire sector, coupled with many institutions lowering target prices, leading to a brief loss of market confidence in SanDisk.
Additionally, continuous insider selling at SanDisk and CPI data exceeding market expectations, the dollar appreciating, and tech stocks collectively under pressure. In the short term, Hynix has triggered a protective cushion mechanism; institutions start to support the stock, and retail investors and whales begin to look forward to extra shareholder returns after the Q3 earnings release.
SNDK current price is suitable for entering short positions: 1348, first target 1322, stop loss 1400. The above is personal sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit record highs #US CPI exceeds expectations, rising to 3.7%, PPI test tonight $NEAR 永续50倍空单，5.075开，现4.563，浮盈+504.43%。
思路很朴素：顶部横盘缩量到极致，波动率压到地板，说明筹码准备派发。一根放量阴线直接把价格从 5.075 砸下来，典型的破位信号，追空不追多。50倍杠杆，止损 5.2。走势一路向下，不给任何舒服的下车位，盈利直接起飞。
这位置我打算先减一半仓位落袋，剩下的一半止损提到 4.8 让利润跑。4.2 能放量跌破就继续拿，跌不破就全平走人。$BTC $ETH #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Netflix guided Q3 revenue growth of 12% and an operating margin of 33.2%. The year-ago margin was 28.2%, but that quarter included a $619M Brazil tax charge, so the comparison flatters it. A beat or miss hinges on ads. #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins The weakest link has never been the direction, but rather that everyone refuses to exit first when positions get too crowded. Guess who’s suffering the most now—the shorts or the ones chasing highs? I came across Maji’s perpetual position update and stared at those numbers for a long time. Overall, it’s still a combination of BTC shorts, ETH longs, and HYPE shorts, but the unrealized P&L has already been split in half by the market movement. - BTC short position at 40x full leverage, holding 243.96 contracts, nominal value about 19.94 million U, entry price 84070, unrealized profit about 568,700 U, funding fees earned 64,100 U, liquidation price near 104380. - ETH long position at 25x full leverage, holding 7222 contracts, nominal value about 17.43 million U, entry price 2541, unrealized loss about 922,700 U, liquidation price 1623.5. - HYPE short position at 5x full leverage, holding 268,300 contracts, nominal value about 21.68 million U, entry price 66.24, unrealized loss about 3.9094 million U, but funding fees earned about 1.042 million U, liquidation price 99.76. This set of positions actually tells one thing. Money is currently more willing to reward those bearish on BTC, yet still punishes those bearish on HYPE. The former aligns with macro hedging and risk appetite contraction, while the latter clashes with narrative and buying momentum. ETH is caught in the middle, neither following BTC’s weakness nor benefiting from HYPE’s emotional premium, so its long position has become a drag. What concerns me more is the sentiment aspect. HYPE’s unrealized loss has already approached 3.9 million U, which an average person would have cut long ago, but the big brother#TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits record high ⚠️ Risks to watch
1. Gross margin slightly declined quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to high costs during the ramp-up phase of the 2nm new process, which drags down gross margin in the short term
2. Highly dependent on major AI clients; if AI capital expenditures cool down in the future, orders will face pressure
3. Overseas factory construction (USA, Japan) is costly and has a long build cycle, which will continue to increase capital expenditure pressure
✅ Summary in one sentence
AI computing power demand continues to explode, driving TSMC's advanced process orders to be full and pushing profits to a record high for six consecutive quarters; 2nm mass production is smooth, maintaining technological barriers, but high capital expenditure and AI demand fluctuations are the two major variables going forward.#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 TSMC's Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, hitting a record high in earnings. TSMC's Q3 revenue also reached a new high; what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report?
Do you think TSMC can break records again with this earnings report?
According to the latest data, TSMC's Q3 revenue soared to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, approximately 46.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 51% $TSM
Market forecasts net profit to reach 746.3 billion New Taiwan Dollars, which if realized, would mark six consecutive quarters of record-high profits. In this AI-driven market, it remains the steady water seller on the fishing platform.
Compared to Q3 results, two variables attract more attention:
▶️ Gross margin and guidance
Last quarter's gross margin was 67.7%, with official estimates for Q3 between 65% and 67%. Against the backdrop of 3nm capacity being snapped up by Nvidia and Apple, it will be interesting to see if management raises the full-year revenue growth forecast and increases capital expenditure.
▶️ The Texas factory drama
Elon Musk proposed the Terafab chip park plan, with TSMC possibly only leasing. The Arizona plant is still unresolved, so moving to Texas is not urgent; it seems more like a long-term layout for post-2030 or a geopolitical bargaining chip.
Compared to chip manufacturing, the real bottleneck is advanced packaging CoWoS; packaging and testing capacity can't keep up, so AI chips still can't be delivered. Looking ahead:
▶️ Beware of short-term profit-taking
Even if data is strong, if gross margin guidance slows, the stock price may experience short-term volatility and pullback.
▶️ Deep long-term moat
Major players' self-developed chips still rely on TSMC's technology and yield in the short term; in the coming years, it remains the biggest beneficiary of the AI dividend.
Do you think it will take Elon Musk's offer in Texas, or stick to steady progress?Once the CPI was released, many people's first reaction was: prices are heating up again, gold should shine on stage, right?✨
Reality slapped back: gold prices plunged, instantly evaporating 1.65%, breaking 4096 and even touching 4088.😵
BTC, however, acted like nothing happened, strolling in the 81000–83000 range.🚶♂️
The logic isn't complicated: stubborn inflation → Fed dares not ease → high interest rates persist → US Treasury yields surge → gold holding costs rise → funds retreat.📉
The gold script has long changed: it used to be "inflation comes, I rise," now it's "Fed hawkish, I kneel."🦅
At the end of the day, gold, BTC, and US stocks seem to be doing their own thing, but they're all betting on the same question: will liquidity ease or not.💧
Don't fight the candlesticks, first watch the central bank's mood. The market hasn't gone crazy, it just changed directors.🎬#TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits record high TSMC's Q3 revenue hits a new high again, but the quarter-on-quarter decline in gross margin is the biggest highlight of this earnings report. AI demand is confirmed to be strong, but large-scale capacity expansion brings depreciation pressure, which is starting to erode gross margin. The market has long priced in the high Q3 revenue, fully betting on Q4 revenue guidance and capital expenditure plans.
Capital expenditure is raised, which is a long-term positive for capacity and consolidates the monopoly position in advanced process technology; the short-term cost is pressure on profit margins. Musk's Terafab talks about foundry cooperation are a long-term theme with no short-term earnings contribution. The upcoming earnings call will focus on three key points: Q4 revenue guidance, the extent of capital expenditure increase, and management's stance on the future gross margin baseline. Aramco headquarters attacked, the news is tense, but don't jump to writing the office building damage as a cut in crude oil production.
On October 14, the Associated Press cited regional officials saying that Aramco's headquarters in Dammam was struck, with damage to the floor where senior offices are located, and no casualties reported. This news shows that the core company's office facilities are also threatened, but it itself has not told us how much oilfield production or export shipments have decreased.
I think what should be separated at this time is the losses that have already occurred and the market's concern about the risk of the next attack. The former needs to be verified through production, refinery, and port operation information; the latter may cause buyers to worry more about delivery even before production stops. Both affect prices, but they cannot be replaced by the same narrative.
If it is later confirmed that production is normal, the supply gap should not be exaggerated based on imagination. But what about next time? Continuous attacks will keep people asking whether key facilities can still operate safely. The risk remains, but specific losses need separate verification.
I hope casualties and damage can stop as soon as possible, and I do not want to treat every attack as material to stimulate the market. Going forward, I will pay more attention to Aramco's operational statements and whether actual exports have changed. When making energy judgments, admitting "currently unknown how much production has been cut" is more responsible than filling in evidence casually for a sharp viewpoint. The headquarters being attacked is serious enough; there is no need to add unconfirmed supply losses.
#AramcoHeadquartersAttacked, crude oil supply under focus #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits record high Q3 net profit indeed exploded, but the stock price instead dropped more than 2%, a typical case of "good news priced in as bad news." The market is not selling off the present, but the Q4 gross margin guidance (65%-67%) is lower than Q2. AI demand is certain, but the ramp-up of 2nm and overseas factory construction costs are starting to show, coupled with potential further increases in capital expenditure, investors worry that profit margins have peaked.
In the short term, it's valuation digestion; in the long term, the AI structural logic remains intact. I choose to wait for a pullback to stabilize before considering, not chasing highs.
What does everyone think? Is the gross margin decline a short-term disturbance or a long-term trend? #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits record high ⚠️ Risks to watch
1. Gross margin slightly declined quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to high costs during the ramp-up phase of the 2nm new process, which drags down gross margin in the short term
2. Highly dependent on major AI clients; if AI capital expenditures cool down in the future, orders will face pressure
3. Overseas factory construction (USA, Japan) is costly and has a long build cycle, which will continue to increase capital expenditure pressure
✅ Summary in one sentence
AI computing power demand continues to explode, driving TSMC's advanced process orders to be full and pushing profits to a record high for six consecutive quarters; 2nm mass production is smooth, maintaining technological barriers, but high capital expenditure and AI demand fluctuations are the two major variables going forward.$BLUR is seeing large-scale sell-offs on-chain; I'm confident in this short position.
Brothers, most people are bullish, so let's go against the grain and be bearish! On-chain data has already revealed the bottom cards.
According to Arkham monitoring, this morning an anonymous address transferred a massive 98.57 million BLUR (about $4 million) directly to Coinbase Prime. This is a clear large fund sell-off. Market maker Wintermute hasn't been idle either, having transferred about $2.6 million worth of BLUR to OKX, Binance, and Coinbase. When market makers move coins to exchanges, it's never to support the price; it's to sell.
The harshest move comes from the Korean exchange Upbit, which has added BLUR to its trading warning list and suspended deposit and withdrawal services. Experienced players know this process well; the next likely step is delisting. Once delisted, liquidity will instantly dry up, and escaping will be impossible.
On-chain data is more honest than candlestick charts. I opened a short at 0.0127 and will hold it, with a stop loss above 0.0132. The downside target is first 0.012, and if broken, then 0.011. The rest is up to time.
$BTC $ETH #US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, and tonight PPI faces another test TSMC just delivered another record quarter. The margin story is more nuanced.
TSMC reported Q3 revenue of NT$1.494T, up 50.9% YoY, and net profit of NT$763.06B, up 68.7%. Net profit set a quarterly record and beat the NT$746.34B LSEG SmartEstimate cited by CNBC.
The technology mix shows where demand is moving:
· 2nm reached 8% of wafer revenue, up from 3% in Q2
· 3nm contributed 33%, followed by 5nm at 28% and 7nm at 10%
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits record high TSMC's Q3 financial report looks impressive, with profits reaching a quarterly high, but the gross margin is not as good as last quarter. The positive news was already priced in by the market, so once the report came out, funds quickly exited and the stock price closed down. Therefore, I think the follow-up depends on whether AI chip orders can be maintained.Let's talk about today's "Prediction King" incident. I'm not familiar with the person involved, so I'll discuss the matter without mentioning anyone.
It's actually quite simple: some things "don't weigh four taels off the scale, but once on the scale, even a thousand catties can't suppress them." Prediction markets are a legal gray area in many countries, not just domestically. Moreover, most countries treat prediction markets as a variant of gambling or betting, generally requiring the appropriate licenses.
Sometimes playing privately won't attract attention, but if you run a community and recruit people to play, problems arise. People say prediction markets have strategies, but 99% of people can't guarantee consistent profits. When everyone profits, it's harmonious; but when people lose? After losing repeatedly and getting frustrated, they might really "blame" the person who brought them in.
Article 303 of the Criminal Law concerns gambling:
Criminal Law Article 303, Paragraph 1: Gambling Crime
Organizing gambling with multiple people or gambling as a profession for profit.
Criminal Law Article 303, Paragraph 2: Operating a Casino Crime
Operating a casino, controlling gambling platforms, acting as an agent to accept bets, or participating in related profit sharing.
Criminal Law Article 303, Paragraph 3: Organizing Participation in Overseas Gambling Crime
Recruiting Chinese citizens to gamble at overseas casinos, reaching legally defined serious circumstances.
So playing by yourself is fine, but recruiting others to play requires careful consideration. Because my profile also mentions prediction markets, and many project parties have approached me for commission sharing, I never participate. Some money isn't worth making; safety comes first.1. AI computing power remains the main engine
High-performance computing platform revenue accounts for 68%, a 22% quarter-on-quarter increase, making it the core growth driver. AI demand has extended from GPUs/accelerators to AI agent CPUs and network chips, with customers still competing for capacity.
2. The proportion of advanced process nodes continues to rise
7nm and below advanced process nodes account for 79% in total. Among them, 3nm accounts for 33%, 5nm for 28%, and 2nm for 8%. The 2nm share increased from 3% last quarter to 8%, indicating that customers are accelerating migration to more advanced nodes.
3. Order visibility extends to 2027
TSMC expects Q4 revenue of $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion, with a midpoint of about $53.3 billion, significantly higher than the market expectation of $50.35 billion; the full-year USD revenue growth guidance was raised from "slightly above 40%" to about 44%.
Pressure points to note
Gross margin slightly declined quarter-on-quarter, dropping from 67.7% to 66.4%, mainly due to profit dilution from early 2nm mass production and cost pressures from overseas capacity expansion.
Capital expenditure remains extremely high. Capital expenditure in 2026 is maintained at $60 billion to $64 billion, a record high; the market expects it may further increase to $75 billion to $90 billion in 2027. The intensity of capacity expansion is unprecedented and will suppress profit margins in the short term.
#TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high #TSMCQ3RecordProfit TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what is the Thursday earnings call really about?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced early, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call isn't about revenue, but about the costs behind that revenue.
The first hurdle is gross margin. The Q3 guidance is 65% to 67%, with a midpoint of 66%, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than Q2's 67.7%, due to#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight 1$NVDA $AAPL From a comparative perspective, NVIDIA’s current share buybacks primarily serve to offset the dilution caused by employee stock-based compensation, making it difficult to consistently thicken EPS through buybacks alone, unlike Apple.
If NVIDIA were to emulate Apple’s mature capital allocation strategy by consistently using its substantial, stable free cash flow for secondary market buybacks and subsequent share cancellations—thereby achieving genuine net share count shrinkage—its EPS would receive sustained additional accretion, assuming its AI computing foundation remains solid. This would significantly boost market confidence in its valuation and serve as a key incremental driver for valuation expansion, potentially paving the way for NVIDIA to challenge a $10 trillion market cap.
For young investors, Apple-style stocks should undoubtedly be the core holding in your primary portfolio position.$BTC 🔥 10.15 Evening Report
On the same day, $BTC $ETH $SOL all weakened together.
But the reasons behind the three bearish candles are different.
Different reasons for the decline:
$BTC is driven by sentiment selling, no large holders fleeing on-chain.
There is still support near the 400-day moving average.
$ETH is about capital withdrawal:
ETF net outflows continue, wallet balances are moving out.
Some are actively reducing positions, not just following the drop.
$SOL is pressured by contracts:
Perpetual shorts are increasing, prices pushed down by leverage.
Spot outflows are limited, no large-scale chip turnover.
Just looking at the order of decline can easily mistake sentiment for trend.
Distinguishing the source helps identify where the noise is.#CoreWeave stock and bond both fall, CEO responds to financing concerns $CRWV
The IOU of borrowing 100 and repaying 100 is now only worth 78.
▪️ On 10/14, the stock price dropped 15% to $65.78, the largest single-day drop since February
▪️ The unsecured bond maturing in 2032 with a coupon of 9.625% saw its yield rise to 14.8%
▪️ The secondary price of this bond fell below par to 78 cents
▪️ Credit default swaps rose to a record high
▪️ The CEO called the market "irrational" in an internal memo, stating that the backlog of contracts is enough to cover the debt
▪️ During the same period, Oracle fell 9%, Nebius fell 11%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.4%
The disagreement is not about whether AI computing power demand is sufficient; the pricing on this chain first happens in the bond market.
A 15% drop in stock measures valuation, while bonds dropping to 78 cents measures credit—two markets giving two different judgments for the same company. Heavy assets, long payback periods, and rapid equipment depreciation combined mean it must continuously refinance. The bond maturity is longer than the customer contracts.
The direction is to wait and see—bond prices returning above 90 cents would indicate credit repair; further decline would tighten the financing chain first.#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what else is there to consider at Thursday's earnings call?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced earlier, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call will not focus on revenue, but on the costs behind the revenue.
The first hurdle is gross margin. The Q3 guidance is 65% to 67%, with a midpoint of 66%, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than Q2's 67.7%, due to the 2nm ramp diluting about 3 to 4 percentage points. The market consensus is about 66.5%, so staying at the upper end of the range would be good news.
The second hurdle is capital expenditure. In July, it was already raised from $52 to $56 billion to $60 to $64 billion, so $64 billion is not a number waiting to be revised upward, but the current ceiling. Management previously said that capital expenditure would be "significantly higher" over the next three years; this time, it depends on how much they say.
Regarding the stock price, the ADR closed at $485.80 on 10/6, with this year's high at $487.47; the latest available closing price is $472.20 on 10/8. The demonstration was impressive, so what’s next?
What I most want to see with $FET is whether customers will continue to use the AI agent after it completes a task.
The official demo shows that agent payments support FET, as well as USDC and other methods, so growth in agent transactions cannot be directly translated into proportional FET demand.
This is not to deny the product, but to clarify the usage path.
Why customers pay, what they pay with, and how much balance they need to keep in advance—these details determine how business growth affects the token.
A single successful demo can attract attention, but repeated paid transactions are more worth tracking.
$AR’s business has a different aspect: users prepay fees, and the network must bear long-term storage.
Part of the upload fee goes into a storage fund to support future storage expenses.
Therefore, receiving a fee cannot be fully regarded as immediately distributable profit.
I will look at both new storage demand and long-term maintenance costs.
An increase in orders is commendable, but the commitment to how long data is preserved also means responsibility for that duration.
What I want to see with $OP is whether ecological investments have follow-up effects.
Governance arrangements involve fund allocation; it’s not enough to just see how much support a project received.
If incentives end and users leave accordingly, then previous activity needs to be reassessed.
If an application can retain users and gradually generate its own revenue, the investment is more convincing.
It’s easy to count how much was distributed, but what remains is more worthy of study.#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 earnings report is very strong, but what I think is truly worth noting is not just the "exceeding expectations," but that despite such a good report, the stock price still fell.
Q3 revenue was 1.49 trillion TWD, up 50.9% year-over-year; net profit was 763.1 billion, up 68.7% year-over-year, continuing to set a new historical high. AI demand remains the biggest driver.
This indicates one thing:
AI is no longer just a story; there are real orders and real spending.
Companies like NVIDIA sell GPUs, but ultimately they rely on TSMC for production. As long as advanced process technology and computing power demand continue to expand, TSMC is the most direct "shovel seller" in the AI industry chain.
But the problem is also clear.
The market's expectations for AI are too high now; it's no longer enough to just have "good performance," but you are required to continue exceeding expectations every quarter.
TSMC has raised its full-year revenue growth forecast to about 44%, and capital expenditures remain high, indicating the company still has confidence in AI demand.
So I think what the AI sector really needs to watch now is not "whether there is demand," but:
Whether such large capital expenditures can ultimately continue to convert into profits.
The fundamentals are not bad; what really needs caution is—
Whether the market has already priced in the good news for the next two to three years in advance.
@OKX星球 Bitcoin $BTC has already fallen back to around $81,000, and Ethereum $ETH dropped to a low of $2,315. Market risk appetite is declining, especially with capital becoming cautious toward high-volatility assets.
I believe the main reason for this drop is that the US CPI exceeded expectations, causing market concerns that the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace might be affected; secondly, after prices broke key levels, leveraged long positions were liquidated en masse, further amplifying the decline.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin $BTC is first watching whether $80,000 can hold, with resistance above at $82,000–$83,000; Ethereum is watching the $2,300 support, and any rebound must first reclaim $2,400–$2,450; if Bitcoin breaks below $80,000, then Ethereum’s $2,300 level might also break.
The most important thing now is not to guess the bottom, but to see if there is decent support after the decline. Without volume-driven stabilization and without reclaiming key resistance levels, one should not easily mistake a rebound for a reversal. Going forward, focus on US interest rate expectations, market trading volume, and leveraged liquidation situations to see if the market can stabilize first. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
Although Tesla's Q3 deliveries exceeded market expectations, they still declined by 2.1% year-over-year, revealing hidden concerns. The delivery mix is the biggest pressure point: sales of high-margin US domestic models have fallen, while the proportion of low-margin Chinese models has risen, which will directly drag down the overall vehicle gross margin.
The market is now betting on earnings recovery in the financial report, but relying solely on cost dilution through sales volume is unlikely to reverse profit pressure. Beyond the automotive business, progress in Robotaxi and Optimus are additional variables. If the AI business does not achieve substantial breakthroughs, it will be difficult for delivery data alone to drive the stock price higher, and there is a risk that the financial report will fall short of expectations.$ETH has dropped to the point where some are starting to calculate weekly target levels.
After a night of decline, $ETH holders have begun reviewing the weekly charts.
Some set the target at 2130, and looking further down to 2000.
What is this price level: 2130 is not a support level, but the cost zone of the previous batch of long positions.
When the price reaches there, it means their stop-loss orders will be queued and swept.
Who places orders here: Market makers don’t care about direction, only whether orders are thick on both sides.
If one side is thick, they push the price down, then pull it back after breaking through.
What will happen next: $BTC will follow down to 80,000, and $ETH’s depth will only get thinner.
With thinner depth, the same selling volume can cause a larger drop.
Looking back, there was no dense trading between 2130 and 2000.
If it really falls into that range, the speed will be faster than the previous wave.
#StandardChartered opens BTC and ETH trading, expanding banking crypto business
#$ETH $BTC "Hawkish night, bulls carried away" 💥
20:30, data released: Core 2.6%, exceeding expectations, hawkish bias. 🦅
The market was silent at first, then declined steadily. $BTC slid from 82797, $ETH gasped around 2500.
21:58, first strike. In a single minute, long positions liquidated 9.4 million, 155 orders. 😱
22:05, second strike. BTC longs 1.76 million, ETH longs 1.25 million, both wiped out. Prices stopped at 82125, 2438.
22:15 review: 1-hour total network liquidation 62.43 million, 90% longs' blood; 24-hour 240 million, 74,596 people exited. 🚑
Before the release, bulls and bears fought; after the release, one-sided long hunting. Some bet "bad news fully priced in," but bad news was not over, stop losses and liquidations trampled each other.
Funding rates also split: BTC still positive, bulls not giving up; ETH turned negative, bears took over. ETH intraday -2.99%, ETF inflows for 10 consecutive days. 📉
BERA +7.3% to 0.2365, funding rate -0.0109%, bears adding positions; A +4.59% to 0.1045. The rise of these altcoins is like borrowed fire. 🔥
My conclusion: the long kill is not over. BTC 82000 is the lifeline, break below targets 81000; ETH breaks 2400, looks down to 2300.
#US CPI exceeds expectations to 3.7%, PPI test tonight #TSMC Q3 net profit beats expectations, record high earnings #Netflix growth may slow, ad business a new focus # TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Profit Hits Record High
TSMC's Q3 financial report is out, the numbers are explosive, but the stock price fell.
Revenue grew 50.9% year-over-year to NT$1.49 trillion, net profit increased 68.7% year-over-year to NT$763.1 billion, setting a quarterly record and surpassing market expectations. The 2nm process accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, with advanced processes making up 79% overall. AI chip demand continues to support performance, this foundation is very solid.
However, the stock price dropped 2.67%. The issue lies in the gross margin guidance. The company gave a range of 65% to 67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%. The market worries that even if AI chip demand remains strong, a declining gross margin indicates that cost pressures from advanced processes are eating into profits. Additionally, whether capital expenditures will be further increased is something to watch.
For BTC, this is not direct, but the underlying logic is connected. TSMC is a core supplier of AI computing infrastructure; its revenue and profit validate that AI demand is real, and the narrative of the computing power economy remains intact. BTC's long-term logic as the underlying anchor asset still holds. But the weaker gross margin guidance indicates rising costs of burning cash, and the entire semiconductor chain's valuation needs to be reabsorbed. In the short term, BTC is still bearing the pressure of CPI exceeding expectations, so the impact of TSMC's financial report is secondary.
Operationally, don't chase tech stocks just because TSMC's profits exceeded expectations. Wait for PPI data, observe how US Treasury yields and the dollar move, then decide whether to enter or not. $TSM $xTSM Brothers, the CPI knife has finally fallen, and BTC and ETH have taken another hit
$BTC $81,150 | $ETH $2,370
The US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.6%, and core CPI also exceeded expectations. Bitcoin dropped directly from above 84,000 to around 81,000, Ethereum fell below 2,400, hitting a low of 2,357
This wave of decline is a double whammy of "inflation + leverage." In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $977 million, with long positions liquidated at $895 million, accounting for a high 92%, and 184,000 people were taken out. Ethereum liquidations topped at $293 million, 92% of which were longs, with the largest single liquidation on Binance BTCUSDT valued at $12.03 million
But there is a key divergence in the capital flow. The Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $175 million on October 13, with Fidelity's FBTC alone accounting for $103 million, ending a continuous outflow. The Ethereum ETF also recorded a net inflow of $24.84 million on the same day, ending 10 consecutive trading days of bleeding. ETF funds actually flowed in during the decline
Technically, 81,000 is a strong support at the 400-day moving average. Analyst JackYi pointed out that Bitcoin quickly rebounds every time it touches 81,000 on a pullback, with 84,000 as the 20-day moving average resistance. After Ethereum fell below 2,400, 2,300 is the next line of defense
#USCPI exceeds expectations to rise to 3.7%, tonight PPI faces another test There are new reports of outflows from BTC spot ETFs again. This time, I want to first check if the tables have been fully completed.
Checking Farside on October 14th, some products have already reported capital flows, but columns like IBIT are still blank. The table can show a summary number, but that doesn't mean all products reported on that day. Treating temporarily blank entries as zero could turn a pending update into a formal conclusion.
The complete record from the previous trading day shows a net inflow of $175.7 million. This also indicates that capital flows are inherently changing, and single-day headlines can easily sway sentiment from one extreme to another. If reporting times differ, comparing incomplete data from the current day with complete data from yesterday makes judgments even more biased.
This is not just data fastidiousness. When the record ranges are not aligned, subsequent discussions might just be comparing two sets of numbers with different completion levels.
Has the capital actually warmed up? At least make sure the comparison targets are consistent first.
Next, I will wait for all product data from the same trading day to be completed before seeing which funds the net outflows are concentrated in and whether they have expanded. Missing data is just temporarily unavailable information; it neither proves buyers for the bulls nor proves no takers for the bears. When the market is tense, everyone wants answers immediately, and I understand that. But taking a few seconds to confirm the statistical scope is much less troublesome than explaining "a sudden shift in institutional sentiment" the next day with revised numbers.
#BTC spot ETF net outflows again, can institutional buying recover? To be honest, holding this short position until now, my biggest feeling isn't satisfaction, but fear.
I initially shorted at 1405. On the day $ZEC rebounded to 1384, I stared at the screen with my hand hovering over the close position button for a long time. Every time the floating loss number on the screen changed, my heart trembled. All the talk about trends, logic, and technicals was completely washed away by emotion at that moment.
Almost. I really almost clicked it.
What stopped me wasn’t willpower. It was that I scrolled through the community, and the whole screen was shouting "halving," "upgrade," "privacy narrative taking off." I've seen that kind of uniform excitement too many times. Whenever everyone shouts in one direction, that's often the most dangerous time. The crypto market has never been comfortable for the majority; this is almost a rule.
What happened next everyone saw. $ZEC crashed from 1285 down to 1088, a 24-hour drop of over 13%, with trading volume surging to 272 million USDT, and the moving averages fully confirming a bearish setup. ETH fell from 2800 to 2363, ETFs had net outflows for 10 consecutive days, with BlackRock and Grayscale pulling money out together. CAP dropped from 0.099 to 0.076.
All three shorts are green now. $ETH floating profit 120%, $ZEC floating profit 225%, CAP floating profit 44%.
But I can’t feel happy.
Because I know those who chased $ZEC at 1285, caught $ETH at 2800, or rushed into CAP at 0.099, their accounts are most likely wrecked now. These people aren’t dumb or ignoring the market; it’s just that when everyone is shouting "rise," it’s hard to believe what you’re seeing is actually a tightening noose.
Don’t ask me when to take profit. I only know none of these issues are resolved yet:
ETFs are still seeing outflows. Since October, the combined net outflow of US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs has nearly reached $1 billion, with Ethereum ETFs having net outflows for 8 consecutive days.
The NU7 upgrade decision won’t be made until October 20. The testnet is running, but whether the mainnet can launch as planned on November 5 is still unknown. This means the biggest narrative catalyst over $ZEC’s head is still hanging in the air.
What are the whales doing? On one side, institutions are liquidating 172,500 $ETH to cash out $124 million and then turning to buy UNI. On the other side, a whale is shorting $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $XRP, and $DOGE simultaneously on Aster DEX with 20x leverage, and all short positions are in profit. What smart money is doing is completely opposite to what retail is shouting.
Altcoins are collapsing. The $XRP derivatives market saw over $610 million in long liquidations in a single day, setting a record. Even more extreme, a whale or institution holding $352 million in longs has 79,260 ETH longs with liquidation prices between $2290 and $2301, just $60 away from the current price—ready to be liquidated at any moment.
None of these issues are resolved. I won’t leave until these variables become clear.
Believe it or not, it’s up to you. But if you’re still hesitating about whether to bottom-fish now, don’t ask yourself how much you can earn first; ask yourself one question:
Are you bottom-fishing, or are you fueling someone else’s short?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, tonight PPI faces another test #TSMC Q3 net profit beats expectations, profits hit record highs #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus #US Bank Heavily Fined, Wall Street Q3 Earnings Diverge
$BTC Net profit dropped by 1.367 billion, of which 1.2 billion is a fine.
▪️ Q3 revenue was $29.958 billion, up 3.2% year-over-year, below the expected $30.58 billion
▪️ Net profit was $6.933 billion, down 17% year-over-year, compared to $8.3 billion last year
▪️ Included $1.2 billion in regulatory settlement costs
▪️ Earnings per share were $1.08, below the expected $1.10
▪️ Shares fell more than 7% after the earnings report, closing down nearly 5%
▪️ During the same period, Morgan Stanley’s stock trading revenue rose 41% year-over-year, and BlackRock had a net inflow of $205 billion for the quarter
The divergence isn’t about how much less it earned, but how much of the "14% less" is one-time.
From $8.3 billion to $6.933 billion, the difference is $1.367 billion, of which $1.2 billion comes from settlement costs—this won’t happen repeatedly, but it sits on the income statement mixed with weak trading business in the same line. Removing the fine, what remains reflects operational changes.
The outlook is cautious — next quarter’s net profit excluding fines needs to return to positive year-over-year growth to be considered a recovery; otherwise, the decline is just being masked by the fine.$BLUR This short position is steadily profiting; finding the right spot to short is the key.
I opened a short at 0.01283, current price is 0.01254, floating profit 6.07%, the direction is firmly controlled.
First, let's look at the latest news: Blur officially announced shutting down the frontend a few days ago, triggering panic selling in the market, and whales are continuously offloading. On-chain data shows large amounts of BLUR are being transferred to exchanges, with selling pressure wave after wave. Although there were intraday rebounds, those were traps; everyone chasing highs got stuck at the peak.
Looking at the market, there is a large sell order of 557.77K at 0.01297 above, and another 519.30K at 0.01296, with selling pressure layered continuously. The buy orders below are sparse and thin like paper. The long-short ratio is 41% longs to 59% shorts, with shorts completely dominating the rhythm.
BLUR has been hammered down from the highs, each rebound weaker than the last; every rally is a shorting opportunity. I continue holding my short opened at 0.01283, with a stop loss set above 0.0135. On the downside, watch 0.012 first; if it breaks, then 0.011. Find the right position, set your stop loss well, and leave the rest to time.
$BTC $ETH #US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, tonight PPI faces another test Short-term correction, no change to the bearish base
$BTC and $ETH remain generally bearish, but I don't think there will be a direct, one-track sell-off. It looks more like a weak correction first, a bull trap, then a drop.
CPI at 3.7%, exceeding expectations. Rate cut trades were doused with cold water, and rate hike risks are back on the table—CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 22% to 53.7%. The US dollar index rose to 102.7, the 10-year US Treasury yield neared 5.33%, hitting a 24-year high. Williams, Collins, and Goolsbee lined up hawkishly; AI investment overheating is fueling inflation, and the Fed's "higher for longer" logic is being repriced. The dollar, Treasury yields, and officials' speeches—any one of these could rewrite the script next.
If there is a sudden sharp rally under this backdrop, I would take it as a strong bull return signal, but the probability is very low.
$BTC briefly dropped to 80,230 during today's session, just shy of 80,000, then pulled back. Nearly $484 million in liquidations occurred across the network in the past hour, with longs accounting for $464 million. The ETF side was also active; yesterday, $BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $261 million, $ETH outflowed $129 million, with BlackRock alone withdrawing over $100 million. Interestingly, on-chain whale holdings have climbed to 3.03 million $BTC, with monthly accumulation at the fastest pace since February this year. Institutions are selling, whales are buying—this divergence doesn't prove who's right or wrong, but at least it shows someone is betting on the direction.
My average $BTC price is 63,000, accumulated from the last crash from 80,000 down. Friends laugh at me for catching the falling knife; they wait for 50,000. But what I fear is having no position—missing out is worse than a paper loss. This is for spot; contracts have been too volatile, and my buddy was liquidated this morning.
Going forward, I only watch whether $BTC can hold 80,000 and whether $ETH can hold 2,360. $BTC tested the 80,000 level once today; the real bottom support lies at 78,000 and the ETF holding cost range below. $ETH is weaker, with 10 consecutive days of net ETF outflows totaling $783 million, whales are still moving coins to exchanges, and a large sell wall is set at 2,382. Breaking these levels means continued bearishness; holding them means more tug-of-war.
Endure the spot market slowly; don't gamble your life on contracts.
#USCPI exceeds expectations, rising to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight
#TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high
#$BTC spot ETF sees net outflow again, can institutional buying recover? At 20:30 tonight, the US PPI and retail sales data will be released. Last night's CPI data came out at 3.7%, exceeding market expectations. After this data was released, major assets began to decline: Nasdaq futures fell nearly 1%, gold dropped almost 2%, the Japanese stock market plunged over 3,300 points, and the South Korean KOSPI index fell more than 9% at one point, triggering the tenth circuit breaker of the year. Samsung and SK Hynix suffered severe losses. Market panic quickly spread, risk appetite continued to decline, and Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, was pressured downward in sync.
The most critical shift is: the market originally bet on "rate hikes ending and cuts next year," but now suddenly realizes that not only are rate cuts off the table, the probability of a rate hike in October has directly increased, and a December rate hike is almost certain at 95%. From a full-year perspective, there will definitely be another rate hike by the end of this year, whether it happens in October or December.
#US CPI exceeds expectations, rising to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight
High interest rates will persist longer, which is a real pressure on high-volatility assets.
Bitcoin also could not remain unscathed. After breaking below the key 82,000 daily level, it is still oscillating at a low level with weak rebounds. If it fails to rebound back above 82,000, a daily-level correction will begin, with the next target around 78,000.
Currently, there is no obvious signal of a bottom. Don't rush to bottom-fish or go long. In the short term, maintain a strategy of shorting on rebounds following the trend, and holders should control their positions carefully.
$BTC $ZEC ZECUSDT has pulled back to a key area; the switch between bulls and bears depends on stabilization signals
📌 Since ZECUSDT broke below 📌1460, the overall trend has been bearish. On October 12, when the close broke below the 4H Vegas channel, I added to my position; at that time, the downtrend line and the 4H Vegas channel formed a suppressive resonance.
📌 Current price: approaching around 📌1060. This is a previous low tested multiple times during rallies. If the price can consolidate here and show stabilization signals, I believe trading long positions nearby offers a good risk-reward ratio and will create a strong bullish bias. We need to wait for stabilization signals and enter following K; do not enter rashly just because the price has reached this level.
📌 If the price breaks below 📌1000 and the short-term cycles continue to operate below this key level, I will cut losses and wait around 📌880–850 for a better entry point. If the trend meets expectations, this could become the low before ZEC launches an independent rally, but currently this is a conditional judgment, not a confirmed conclusion.
Will you follow after stabilization or continue to wait? The above is only a personal opinion; the market is highly volatile, so please make decisions cautiously based on your own risk tolerance.Funds are rotating; don't mistake pulses for trumpets. Candlestick charts can disguise themselves, but on-chain net flows reveal the true colors.📊
The market is stratifying:
$ETH has a daily inflow of $180 million, but the weekly net flow is still an outflow of $650 million. There is short-term support, but no mid-term reversal.
$SOL has a daily inflow of $110 million, yet the monthly trend continues to bleed, with buying resembling a rebound grab.
LINK has a daily inflow of $60 million, but a net outflow of $420 million over the past 30 days. Sentiment is searching for resilience, but the long-term gap remains unfilled.
OP has a daily inflow of $90 million, showing local dominance, but a strong day does not equal a bullish trend reversal.
Right now, it feels like testing positions, not a full-scale attack. Next, watch three points: whether ETH can continuously attract capital; whether SOL can end its monthly outflow; and whether strong coins show volume contraction on pullbacks. Only continuous action counts as a reversal; pulses still belong to consolidation.🔍
Which one do you think will break out first?🚀#US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, tonight PPI faces another test #TSMC Q3 net profit beats expectations, profits hit a record high #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 October 15 Cross-Market Observation: CPI Rises, Risk Assets Pull Back in Sync
The strengthening of the US dollar alongside the weakening of cryptocurrencies is the direct cross-market phenomenon following the release of this inflation data. The US September CPI year-on-year is 3.7%, exceeding expectations, with core inflation also surpassing forecasts; energy prices drove the overall increase, but widespread rises in housing and service prices indicate inflationary pressure is spreading. The market has raised the probability of a rate hike, funds tend to reduce risk exposure, the dollar gains buying support, and crypto assets fall along with risk assets. The two move in the same direction but this does not imply a fixed causal relationship.
BTC fell below $81,000, down 2.85% intraday, ETH declined even more, the ETH/BTC exchange rate hit a new phase low, and long positions were liquidated en masse. This linkage depends on the market continuously pricing in rate hike expectations.
Once subsequent inflation data cools significantly and US bond yields continue to decline, this cross-asset linkage logic will fail.
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$ETH $BTC $SOL It now feels more like a phase of fund washing and game theory intertwined, not a window for chasing gains. Why does someone who lost seventy thousand on SOL make me more cautious about going long? I came across a personal story that really struck me. The author said they recently took a daily-paid job, but the money saved was wiped out in SOL, accumulating a loss of seventy thousand. Their parents passed away early, no family wealth, been in the crypto circle for a year, still catching up on knowledge and execution skills, and the last sentence was "I went back to work." $SOL $BTC $ZEC I stared at this passage for a long time, and my first reaction was not sympathy but alertness: when such stories appear intensively, it usually means the leverage side has already been cleared once, but the sentiment hasn't completely surrendered yet. From the derivatives structure perspective, this is the key. Liquidations of high-beta assets like SOL are often not isolated events. Behind it is the loosening of open interest in perpetual contracts, funding rates shifting from positive to neutral or even negative, and longs being forced to give up their chips. Price drops are not scary; what's scary is the forced reshuffling of position structures. When retail stop-losses and forced liquidations are swept away, the remaining pool actually becomes lighter, which is the bullish side. But conversely, light positions do not equal a rise. If after liquidations the funding rate does not return to a healthy range for a long time and open interest continues to decline, it indicates not a turnover but an exit. Altcoin rebounds become very short, BTC and ETH draw attention away, and SOL can only be repeatedly consumed within a range. Chasing in such times is equivalent to testing the selling pressure above for others. My own understanding is that the market is not trading on "all bad news priced in" but on "who still has bullets left" Bitcoin stabilized near $81,000 after successfully absorbing two separate retests of the $80,000 baseline. Downward pressure was driven by broader equity weakness, with the KOSPI down 7.57% and Nikkei shedding 4.9% on rising tech credit costs. Despite US spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing $150.5M in net outflows on October 14, two-day net flows remain positive at $25.2M as CME rate hike expectations ease to 26%.
(DYOR). $BTC
#USCPI3.7%PPIInFocus #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日
Last night, the CPI already released inflation bearish news; tonight's PPI is just supplementary data with limited impact. Last night, the core CPI month-over-month recorded +0.3%, which raised the probability of a rate hike at the October 28 FOMC from 17% to 35%; if tonight's core PPI month-over-month again records +0.3% or even +0.4%, institutions will comprehensively revise upward the September core PCE forecast, further strengthening tightening expectations.
Tonight's forecast: stagflation consensus, a rally first then a drop.#Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus
ChatGPT's analysis of this Tesla earnings report# TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Profit Hits Record High
- Q3 net profit of 763.1 billion TWD, up 68.7% year-over-year, revenue also exceeded expectations, with profits hitting new highs for six consecutive quarters
- Simply put: AI computing power orders are the foundation, high-performance computing directly accounts for 68% of total revenue, 2nm process is starting to ramp up, CoWoS packaging is still in the order queue, customers are fiercely competing for capacity
- Also gave a strong Q4 guidance and raised the full-year revenue growth forecast, management stated AI demand is far from peaking
But there are two points that shouldn’t be overly hyped:
- 2nm ramp-up plus high costs of overseas fabs put slight pressure on gross margin, it’s not a blind upward surge
- 79% of revenue comes from 7nm and below advanced processes, meaning highly tied to the AI cycle; once major players cut capital expenditures, volatility won’t be small
From the blockchain and macro perspective:
The strong semiconductor market indirectly shows institutions still believe in the long-term AI narrative; but short-term doesn’t mean BTC or AI tokens will blindly surge—currently the market is still pressured by CPI and interest rate hike expectations, and positive news is easily "priced in".
Good earnings ≠ immediate price jump, it only confirms the big picture hasn’t collapsed.
In summary: TSMC’s earnings prove that "AI computing power demand is a real rigid demand," but in trading, don’t just blindly rush on the good news; watch the upcoming earnings calls for any new cues on "capacity, price hikes, capital expenditures" before setting the pace.#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 CPI data release triggers collective risk asset pullback
At the moment the data was released, BTC quickly dropped from 83800 to around 82800, and ETH simultaneously dipped to 2430. The US September CPI year-over-year was 3.7%, higher than the market expectation of 3.6%, and core CPI year-over-year was 2.6%, also exceeding estimates. Inflation stickiness is stronger than expected, the market has raised Fed rate hike expectations, with the probability of a rate hike in October rising to nearly 50%, and the 5-year US Treasury yield breaking above 5.15%, indicating signs of capital withdrawal from high-risk assets.
Under the environment of tightening rate expectations, high-leverage positions are clearly under pressure. The strong liquidation price for 100x long positions is very close to the current price, and a slight decline will erode margin; storage chip targets combined with industry competition pressure and macro headwinds for tech stocks show weak trends. The macro tightening expectations are unlikely to dissipate quickly in the short term, crowded long positions still face liquidation pressure, and high-leverage operational risks have significantly increased, making principal preservation a priority.
If the market holds key support, a short-term consolidation and recovery may occur; if support fails, selling pressure may further intensify. This article is for market observation only and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
Yesterday, CPI directly hit 3.7%, while the expectation was only 3.6%, and core CPI also exceeded expectations, which was like pouring a bucket of cold water on the market.
Many people were still hoping for "inflation to cool down slowly, and the Fed to ease up," but once the data came out:
- US Treasury yields surged, and the dollar strengthened
- The probability of a rate hike jumped directly, and the market began to reprice "not ruling out another hike"
- US tech and storage stocks (like Micron, SanDisk) were directly hit, and Bitcoin also first came under pressure and fluctuated
Why is tonight's PPI another hurdle?
CPI is the price of goods bought by ordinary people, while PPI is the factory and wholesaler's ex-factory price.
- If PPI also exceeds expectations = upstream price increases pass down, confirming inflation stickiness, hawkish expectations will be further upgraded
- If PPI is weak = it may just be energy temporarily driving CPI, with room for easing later
- The worst case is: CPI has already exploded, and PPI delivers another "stab," making it hard for risk assets to feel comfortable in the short term
From a trading perspective on the current situation:
It’s not an "immediate crash," but expectations become unclear again, and volatility returns. Institutions say they are optimistic long-term, but when hard inflation data comes in the short term, they still reduce positions and hedge.
Don’t rush in at the sight of one data point; during this dual data window, prioritize waiting for the full picture before deciding direction, and avoid betting on "definitely up/definitely down." The market after the CPI explosion is so dramatic! $BTC directly fell below 82,000, currently at 81,316, a daily drop of 2.56%. $ETH is even worse, down 2.09%.
The biggest reaction is in the funding side, with a direct major shift:
ETF frantic outflow: On the 14th, the day of the CPI, BTC ETF net outflow reached as high as 261 million, while the day before it was an inflow of 175 million—really fast to run! ETH ETF is even more miserable, running away on 11 of the past 12 days.
Whales buying against the trend: Strangely, while some run, others catch. A certain whale bought 1,162 BTC directly through Wintermute for over 96 million.
Funding rate innovation: The funding rate dropped to -0.0044%, a 9-month low. Shorts have started paying longs.
The current market is a major reshuffle of chips. The 84K breakthrough completely failed, 82K has become a short-term tough level. Next, keep a close eye on the 81,000 level! If it holds and the negative funding rate continues, shorts covering still has a chance; once it breaks, the negative funding rate only confirms the price is right.
#USCPI exceeds expectations to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight #BTC spot ETF net outflow again, can institutional buying warm up? #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high