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Core DAO's business on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) The truth about $CORE The token itself is not listed on the London Stock Exchange. The listed product is the BTC staking ETP product (1VBS) from third-party issuer Valour (a subsidiary of DeFi Technologies), with underlying staking technology supported by Core. Many community promotions simplify it as "Core debuting on the London Stock Exchange," which is promotional tactics and not CORE token trading. Product: 1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS) 1. What it is: ETP (exchange-traded product, similar to an ETF), publicly traded on the London Stock Exchange, regulated by the UK FCA, with physical Bitcoin as the underlying asset, and Bitcoin entering the Core network for non-custodial staking to generate yields. 2. Business Logic - Valour holds real BTC, with institutions cold storage and custody; - Entrust BTC to Core network validators for staking to generate staking rewards (nominal annualized rate of about 1.4%); - Staking rewards are included in the product's net asset value; investors buying this LME stock indirectly receive "BTC price appreciation + staking rewards"; - Opened to professional investors in September 2025; Obtained FCA license in January 2026, opening trading to ordinary UK retail investors. 3. Core plays a role here: underlying technology service provider - providing Satoshi-P$BTC is in a downward continuation, with CPI news coming tonight!
The 4-hour chart is unclear for now; today, watch around 82. There might be a spike at 8:30 PM when the news comes, so continue to buy spot!
The 3-day K-line represents a long-term range; short-term ups and downs do not affect the long-term trend. The MACD death cross will either be resolved by wide-range oscillation or lead to continued decline, so don't rush. Keep some funds reserved for bottom-fishing!
$SPCX dropped quite a bit last night, with temporary support around 155, but the weekly K-line is indeed a bearish trend. This week, you can only take a small rebound and exit. In the past 3 months, $SPCX has risen 60-70 points from the bottom, so a pullback is very normal!ETH没有统一的“鲸鱼标准”，不同平台门槛不一样，和BTC（≥1000 BTC）口径区分开： 圈内最常用两套划分（Santiment / Glassnode） 1. 超级巨鲸：≥100,000 ETH 地址数量很少，几十到六十多个。 ⚠️ 这里面大头是：信标链质押合约、交易所托管钱包、ETF托管地址，真正个人大户极少。 2. 标准巨鲸：≥10,000 ETH（大家盯得最多一档） 大概 800～1100 个地址，这一档才是平时说的、会主动买卖影响行情的巨鲸，包含基金、大户、机构自托管钱包。 3. 大户/鲨鱼档：≥1,000 ETH 这个口径数量就多很多，几千个地址，很多是中型基金、质押服务商、DeFi国库。 最重要的误区（和BTC一样） 地址 ≠ 真实独立的人 - 信标链存款合约、Lido、Coinbase质押池、各大交易所冷钱包，全部会被统计进巨鲸地址； - 一个大户可以拆分几十个钱包；一个钱包里面是几万散户的钱（托管）。 所以链上只能数钱包地址，没法精确算出真实有多少个独立“人”是鲸鱼 。 简单对比你刚才问的BTC - BTC巨鲸标准：≥1000 BTC，$BTC 市占率重回60%！手里的山寨，是不是越拿越凉？✨
有没有和我一样的感受，大饼小幅回调还好，点开持仓，手里的山寨跌幅直接让人沉默。
这真不是错觉，过去一周很多山寨跌幅惨重：RAIN跌17.78%，VVV跌16.85%，UNI跌15.34%，$SOL $XRP 也有不小回撤，反观BTC仅仅下跌2.93%。很多舍不得割的币种，反而跌得最凶。
资金并没有彻底离场，只是开始抱团避险。BTC、ETH的ETF持续流出，ETH ETF十月累计流出7.2亿美元，但BTC市占率悄悄回升至60.28%，创下一个月新高。大家不是退出市场，是只愿意留在确定性更高的大饼里面。
宏观压力也摆在眼前，布伦特原油逼近110，30年期美债收益率触及5.57%，创出2002年以来高点。风险资产重新估值阶段，资金优先抛售高波动的山寨币种。
更现实的一点，就算后续行情反弹，资金回流也未必先眷顾山寨。如果CPI落地之后，资金依旧扎堆大饼，深度下跌的山寨，反弹节奏大概率会慢很多。
好奇问问大家，现在持仓主要是大饼还是山寨？可以在评论区一起聊聊～ CORE属于小市值山寨币，没有行业统一的鲸鱼标准（不像BTC固定≥1000 BTC、ETH常用≥10000 ETH），一般圈内跟踪CORE常用两套门槛（Nansen / Lookonchain）： 1. CORE巨鲸（能砸动盘面）：≥100万 CORE 2. 大户/鲨鱼档：10万～100万 CORE 核心特点（和BTC、ETH最大区别） 1. 筹码集中度极高 前几名钱包包含：Core DAO国库、团队/投资人锁仓合约、质押合约、交易所冷钱包。前10个地址持有流通占比很高，这也是CORE波动远大于BTC/ETH的根本原因。 2. 没有一个固定不变的官方数字 - ≥100万CORE这一档：实时地址数量通常几十枚（动态变化，解锁、质押、转账都会变） - ≥10万CORE（大户）：几百个地址 很多地址是质押合约、基金会国库、交易所储备，并不是个人大户。真正可以自由砸盘、主动交易的独立巨鲸，数量比地址数少很多。 3. 数据痛点： CORE的链上统计没有BTC、ETH成熟，Santiment、Glassnode不会像大饼以太那样给稳定的巨鲸专题统计，只能在Core Scan大盘回暖，小币怎么还在掉队？
$BTC 8.36万附近，24小时小涨约0.6%，但一周基本没动。
我觉得今晚还不能直接当成全面回暖。
大饼稳住，对市场当然有帮助，可其他币愿不愿意跟，得分别看。
如果它继续往上，小币却反应越来越迟钝，那就该缩小关注范围。没必要为了等一轮普涨，把所有仓位都留着。
眼下先认可它的稳定，至于行情能扩散多远，价格还没给出足够答案。
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？
$ZEC 24小时跌了约7%，一周回落接近10%，最近一个月只剩约5%的涨幅。
前面那种独立走强的印象，我会先放下。
现在更值得看的是，大盘改善时它能不能跟上。如果环境已经好转，它仍持续落后，就不能一直用“走势独立”来解释。
同样一句话，上涨时听着有底气，下跌时也可能变成舍不得调整判断的理由。
$W 一天回落约26%，周涨幅却仍有约28%。
这两个数字放一起，我首先想到的是波动太大。
周内表现不错，不代表今天入场就容易赚钱。一次急跌，就可能让原本的交易计划失去意义。
这里我会先控制仓位。真要观察反弹，也得看上涨能维持多久，不能因为跌幅醒目，就急着给它安排一段回升。狗狗币（DOGE）鲸鱼（巨鲸）划分标准（市场通用口径） - 🐬海豚：100万～1000万 DOGE - 🦈鲨鱼：1000万～1亿 DOGE - 🐳鲸鱼：≥1亿 DOGE（能明显带动行情） - 🦑超级巨鲸：≥10亿 DOGE（机构/交易所级别） 数量与筹码情况 按Santiment统计：持仓≥1亿DOGE的钱包大约 140多个，这批地址合计持有超1080亿DOGE，筹码集中度远高于BTC、ETH。 重点大坑：链上rich list第一名不是某个大佬，是Robinhood的托管冷钱包（约272亿DOGE，接近流通盘17.5%），里面是几十万散户的币，不是一个人的；第二名Upbit、第三名Binance，也都是交易所托管钱包，属于用户资产托管，不是私人巨鲸。 早年那个传说持有接近30%DOGE的超级地址，在2021年底已经拆分，不是单一大户了。 特点（对比BTC/ETH鲸鱼） 1. DOGE是meme币，盘子流动性更薄，真正私人巨鲸一笔大额转出/砸盘，行情波动会比BTC、ETH猛烈得多，很容易带崩情绪、触发连锁爆仓 2. 筹码高度集中：前10大地址合计占流通盘主流链上分析（Santiment）把 ≥1000 BTC 的地址定义为BTC巨鲸（鲸鱼） - 最新统计：2044个地址 ≥1000 BTC，合计持有约717万枚BTC，占流通量接近36% 但是！地址 ≠ 真实独立的人/机构，这个是最容易踩坑的地方： 里面包含：交易所冷钱包、ETF托管地址、平台储备钱包，不是全部个人大户。比如一个交易所可能有好几个这种巨鲸地址，其实属于同一家机构。 更细的分层（另一种细分口径） - 鲨鱼：1000–5000 BTC - 鲸鱼：5000–10000 BTC（狭义whale）≈100多个地址 - 座头鲸（超级巨鲸）：＞10000 BTC，不到100个地址，这里面就是MicroStrategy、美国政府、早期巨富、大托管方这一档 两个关键误区 1. 没法精确知道真实“鲸鱼人数”：一个人可以控制几十个钱包；一个钱包也可能是很多用户的钱（交易所），链上只能数地址，分不清背后实体。 2. 不同平台门槛不一样：有些媒体宽松一点，把≥100 BTC就叫大户，这个口径数量会涨到接近2万个地址，不能混为一谈。 简单一句话总结 按圈内最常用的1$STRK
一、量化抛压基础数据
连续6个月，每月15日释放1.27亿枚STRK，合计总量7.62亿枚。
当前STRK流通量约74.2亿枚，每月解锁量占流通盘约1.7%；6个月累计新增流通占当前流通盘约10.3%。
解锁筹码分为两块：
1. 早期贡献者：成本极低，兑现意愿更强，属于高抛压筹码；
2. 机构投资人：早期私募有买入成本，只有币价高于成本才会大规模卖出，很多机构会选择场外OTC减持、质押，不一定直接砸现货。
关键点：解锁=可以交易，不等于全部立刻卖出。真正的砸盘力量，取决于解锁后持有人实际卖出比例。
✅能削弱砸盘力量：
- L1升级、抗量子叙事持续落地，长线资金逢解锁分批吸筹；
- 一部分解锁代币选择质押锁仓，不进入二级市场抛售；
- 大盘处于牛市，增量资金充足，承接力强。
❌放大砸盘力量：
- 叙事预期延后（L1上线推迟）、热度退潮；
- 加密大盘走熊，市场缺少增量资金；
- 早期贡献者集中卖出，优先兑现利润。
三、周期终点
这6期解锁到2027年3月15日全部结束。之后团队、投资人这部分大额月度抛压消失，供给压力明显减轻。但基金会国库储备代币，依然存在远期潜在释放的可能The cost basis of investors who bought at high levels is still limiting Bitcoin's upside. After Bitcoin rebounded to around $88,000, investors holding for 1 to 2 years sold heavily, and this price level is also close to the breakeven point for investors holding for 6 to 12 months. Bitcoin's price then encountered resistance below this level, and currently, this selling pressure has significantly weakened. #TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heard $BTC In the past decade or so, the mainland's attitude toward Bitcoin (BTC) has followed a main line: from "defining it as a virtual commodity, warning of risks, isolating the financial system," gradually moving to "completely banning domestic virtual currency-related businesses + clearing out mining + continuously cracking down on speculation/money laundering/illegal financial activities." It was not a sudden one-size-fits-all ban but a step-by-step tightening. 1. 2013: Recognized as a "virtual commodity" but denied currency attributes - The People's Bank of China and five other ministries issued the "Notice on Preventing Bitcoin Risks": Bitcoin is not currency but a "specific virtual commodity" and cannot circulate as currency. - Financial institutions and payment institutions are prohibited from conducting Bitcoin exchange, clearing, custody, pricing, insurance, and other businesses. - Ordinary people can buy and sell at their own risk—this is considered "commodity trading," not a legal investment product, nor currency. - Core logic: prevent money laundering, maintain the legal status of the RMB, and keep risks outside the financial system. 2. 2017: Expanded from "Bitcoin" to "virtual currency/ICO," clearing trading platforms - The People's Bank of China and seven other departments issued the "Announcement on Preventing Risks of Token Issuance Financing": ICOs were defined as illegal public financing. - Domestic token issuance financing and virtual currency trading platforms were centrally cleaned up; Huobi/OKEx and others moved their domestic businesses overseas. - Attitude change: no longer just "Bitcoin speculation is risky," but treating token financing, platform matchmaking, and fundraising behaviors as financial chaos to be cracked down on. - At this time, individual coin speculation was not yet considered a crime, but platforms, coin issuance, and fundraising were already prohibited. 3. 2021: Completely tightenedBrothers and sisters, I am a PhD. Tonight at 20:30, the US September CPI data will be officially released. I know many people in the group are already sweating as the time approaches. Don't panic, I've been trading for 15 years and have seen CPI data over 30 times. Tonight, I'll explain all the logic to you thoroughly. 1. First, let's look at the four numbers to be announced tonight From the Jin10 screenshot, four data points will be released at once at 20:30 tonight: First, the CPI year-over-year, previous value 3.4%, expected 3.6%. This is the overall inflation, including energy and food. The market expectation is 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous value, indicating that everyone is mentally prepared for an inflation rebound. Second, the CPI month-over-month, previous value 0.4%, expected 0.6%. What does a 0.6% month-over-month increase mean? Annualized, that's 7.2%, which is not a small number. This is mainly pushed up by oil prices rising from 80 to 92-105. Third, the core CPI month-over-month, previous value 0.3%, expected 0.2%. Note, this expectation is even lower than the previous value, indicating the market believes that excluding energy and food, inflation pressure is actually easing. Fourth, the core CPI year-over-year, previous value 2.4%, expected 2.5%. This is the most critical one; the Federal Reserve is really focused on this. The expectation of 2.5% is still 0.5 percentage points away from the 2% target. 2. Why tonight is so important Let me tell you, tonight's CPI is not an ordinary monthly data release. First, the CME FedWatch currently shows a 77.3% probability of no rate hike in October, but the probability of a 25 basis point hike in December has already reached"A drop alone doesn't form a bottom; only what can hold it does."
$BTC broke through the defense line, $ETH weakened in sync, and altcoins fell even more steeply. Most people see this as a discount but overlook that the order book is thinning. Once the support orders retreat, a few sell orders can easily break through a price level.
CPI and PPI data have yet to be released. If the data is on the strong side, tightening trades won't end easily. Capital always turns before the candlesticks: first deleveraging, then allowing catch-up drops to happen. After the lower stop-loss zone is swept, sentiment is left fragile.
Therefore, before the macro picture is revealed, no matter how hard the drop, don't rush to define the bottom. Cheapness is not a product of the drop magnitude but a result of buying returning. A drop without support is just liquidity repricing.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 In the past 24 hours, the main pricing theme has shifted from "interest rate tightening" to "AI hardware revaluation + persistent geopolitical premium": Broadcom CEO's "casino" remarks combined with progress at Changxin triggered a sell-off in Asian chip stocks and dragged down the growth segment of the US stock market; major banks' earnings reports generally exceeded expectations but stock prices fell broadly, indicating the market cares more about guidance and valuation than quarterly numbers. Tonight's key validation points are highly concentrated: at 09:30 Beijing time, China's September CPI/PPI, and at 20:30, US September CPI; these two inflation data sets will simultaneously test the interest rate pricing in the Chinese and US stock markets. Event: Bitcoin dominance rate (BTC.D) - measuring BTC's market capitalization relative to the entire cryptocurrency market - continues its strong upward trend, reaching 59.48%. This is the highest level in many years, far surpassing Altcoins and Ethereum (currently only at 11.05%). Detailed analysis notes: Flight to Quality: In the context of macroeconomic uncertainties, capital is withdrawing from high-risk assets (Altcoins, Memecoins) to seek refuge in the safest and most liquid assets on the market In the past 24 hours, the market first crashed, then rebounded, but the rebound feels a bit weak.
BTC dipped to 80,927, ETH touched 2,405, with a total liquidation of 814 million USD across the network, of which 84.6% were long positions. No black swan event, just concentrated high leverage deleveraging.
The rebound? It’s not really a true recovery:
$BTC almost returned to the opening price, just 0.3% short[citation:17]
$ETH hasn’t reclaimed 2,560
$SOL is still 3% below 112
This doesn’t look like risk appetite has returned; it’s more like funds are retreating into BTC for shelter. BTC market dominance rose to 59.3%, showing a clear bloodsucking pattern.
Macro conditions haven’t improved either. Hamak bluntly stated that inflation has spread to AI infrastructure and electricity, with nearly a 70% chance of a rate hike in December, and the 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.24%.
Tonight at 20:30, CPI is key:
≤0.2% → a breather
0.3% → more disputes
≥0.4% → rate hike repricing
Warmer is more dangerous than cooler.Tonight's CPI: How will the crypto market fight the tough battle?
At 20:30 tonight, the US September CPI data will be released. BTC and ETH sharply dropped yesterday for a washout, with massive leverage liquidations and weak market sentiment. Tonight's data will directly determine the short-term market direction.
Core logic: Expectation gap sets the direction
The market has long priced in the overall inflation rise driven by oil prices; the core CPI is the key, with a market consensus of 0.2%.
Maintaining 0.2% means cooling inflation and a recovery rebound for the crypto space; recording 0.3% indicates stubborn inflation, rising rate hike expectations, and market pressure; reaching 0.4% would be a major negative, causing risk repricing.
The unique risk of $ETH
In the ETF era, ETH is far more sensitive to CPI data than BTC, with higher liquidation density, larger spike amplitudes, and more intense volatility, so BTC market patterns cannot be applied.
Key levels and observation discipline
$BTC 83300 is the rebound watershed, 82500 is key support, and breaking below points to 80000.
Data releases often cause two-way spike traps; do not chase the first wave of moves. Wait for sentiment to fully digest and confirm the real trend with US Treasury yields.
Tonight's timeline
20:30 CPI release with intense volatility; 20:30-21:30 sentiment digestion; 21:30 US stock market opens to confirm real capital direction.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #Russia and the US advance diesel supply cooperation, but differences remain on the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. Interest rate expectations disturb risk assets, with the market's V-shaped rebound resolving intraday pullbacks.
During the rapid intraday dip in Beijing time, global risk appetite weakened simultaneously, and the crypto sector collectively came under pressure. This volatility correlates with rising US Treasury yields but cannot be simply judged as a direct cause. The driving forces behind the decline of various coins show clear differentiation, and on-chain capital signals can distinguish between native sell pressure and sentiment contagion. BTC shows the strongest resilience; while ETF funds flow out, large holders buy on dips, with the 400-day moving average providing strong support. The long-term oscillating upward structure remains intact.
ETH's capital side remains weak, with ETF funds flowing out for several consecutive days, compounded by potential sell pressure expectations from wallet transfers. Key support levels below are being tested. SOL's decline is more due to derivative short attacks, with limited outflow of spot funds. OKB is undergoing a passive correction driven by sentiment, but fundamentals are solid, and it has the potential to develop an independent trend.
Subsequent shifts in long-term US Treasury yields and US stock risk appetite will change the current market assessment. The market is like the tide; only when the waves recede can the underwater reefs be seen clearly.
$BTC $ETH $SOLLast night it was pulled up from around 81000, and many people were already shouting "the bottom is in."
But when waking up this morning, $BTC was still hovering around 83306, the high point of 84166 last night didn't really hold, it looked more like a short squeeze rather than new money taking over.
$ETH is the same: it dropped to 2409 then pulled back to 2502, looks nice, but the space above 2538 hasn't opened up, the V-shaped recovery seems more like an emotional fix rather than a trend reversal.
The divergence is here—some people are focused on defending the lows, others are watching the highs not being surpassed, both sides have their reasons, so positions shouldn't be fully loaded.
There are only two scenarios.
If it stands above 84100–84500, then short-term it qualifies to challenge higher.
If it falls below 82500–82000, that V from last night was just a rebound, and the low at 81032 will become a magnet again.
ETH follows suit: 2500 is the watershed, losing that looks at 2450, losing that looks at 2400.
Funding rates aren't extreme either, indicating the market is still waiting for the next confirmation.
Before the Asian-European session opens, don't load up rebound positions all at once, let the price choose a side first.
$BTC $ETHAll four positions fell together, but the reasons for the decline are different.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $OKB all took hits today.
But the reasons for the hits are not the same.
Where did this money come from:
$SOL fell the hardest, pressured by derivatives.
There is a 120 million short position hanging on the order book, the spot hasn't moved.
How is this number calculated:
$BTC ETFs were redeemed for 450 million.
At the same time, whales picked up 15,000 coins.
With inflows and outflows, the net outflow isn't that large.
$ETH is a different story, ETFs have been redeemed for 8 consecutive days.
Over 8 days, a total of 640 million has exited, this is real outflow.
A sharp drop and a real drop are two different things.
The former is sentiment, the latter is money.
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, is institutional demand weakening?
$BTC $ETH From the TVL perspective, distinguish between DeFi book assets and real liquid funds
TVL values fluctuate and rise with coin prices, which does not equal real capital inflow. TVL driven purely by coin price increases is not new deposits in the ecosystem.
$BTC verifies the overall market environment, $ETH observes the real inflow and outflow of DeFi funds. Layered differentiation: distinguish between artificially inflated TVL driven by coin prices and real funds newly deposited by users.
Tracking target list:
🟠BTC｜Benchmark for overall market environment
🔵ETH｜DeFi capital gauge
🟣AAVE｜Lending leader
🟢UNI｜DEX leader
🔷MKR｜RWA + stablecoin target
Focus on observing the relative strength of BTC and ETH:
With BTC support stable and ETH on-chain deposits continuously increasing, TVL rises synchronously, the DeFi sector has sustainability; however, token price increases cause TVL inflation, ecosystem funds have no new additions, making the market hard to sustain. Williams' speech adds to macro headwinds, how will rate hikes affect BTC✨
Latest statement from New York Fed President Williams keeps open the possibility of another rate hike this year but does not see a need for continuous hikes into 2027. He judges that inflation will slow significantly, with price shocks from energy and tariffs gradually fading. After the speech, short-term US Treasury yields slightly retreated.
On the market front, the dollar fell back from highs but held above 102, US Treasury yields diverged, gold surged then pulled back, crude oil strengthened, and European and US stock markets were generally weak. The current macro environment is not friendly to BTC; high US Treasury yields raise holding costs, oil prices fuel inflation concerns, combined with continuous ETF outflows, BTC oscillates below 83,000, with 81,500 as key support.
Two simple scenarios:
If no rate hike, $BTC will get a brief breather, but rebound space is limited; sustainability depends on ETF fund inflows.
If a rate hike happens, pressure usually comes in advance; as long as it’s not beyond expectations, it tends to trigger a rebound after the bad news is priced in. After the previous round of leverage clearing, it’s hard to replicate the chain liquidation crash of 2022.
Overall, this speech is neutral to slightly bearish. Currently, BTC maintains a consolidation pattern; the core of future trends remains the rate hike expectation gap and ETF fund flows.
#September CPI release is imminent, Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed $ETH 不要被24小时的资金流入数据迷惑，这很多时候只是表面的障眼法。
拨开短期的表层数据去看，真正的大资金，正在悄悄离场。
$BTC $ETH $SOL $ZEC 的短周期合约资金，已经在持续向外流出。
$BTC
5分钟快速流出807万，4小时流出1.72亿，8小时流出1.58亿。
虽然24小时还显示流入5551万，但拉长到一周，净流出已经来到33.13亿，上方抛压一直都在。
$ETH
4小时流出9932万，8小时流出1.27亿。
24小时那一小笔流入，诱多嫌疑很大，中期级别资金并没有选择回流市场。
$SOL
4小时流出892万，8小时流出1368万，24小时录得流入2012万。
当前空头结构还没有正式成型，保持观望，暂时不主动出手。
ZEC
8小时流出2277万，24小时几乎看不到明显动静，单周净流出2.99亿，资金撤离还在继续。
做交易别只盯着单日的数字，多把周期拉开，才可以看见藏在盘面底下真实的动向。#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 CPI night, don't let the candlestick chart take sides for you
It's CPI night again. Are your palms already sweating in front of the screen?
First, a cold splash of water: Core CPI exceeded expectations, yet ETH surged 6% within an hour — this is not "bad news fully priced in," but shorts being collectively squeezed. That bullish candle contains no new funds, only the wails of forced liquidations.
The essence of CPI for the crypto world has never been the data itself, but the repricing of interest rate expectations. Every 0.1% increase in core month-on-month CPI jumps the probability of a rate hike from 70% to 90%. But the market isn't stupid; hawkish sentiment was already fully priced in before the data, so the data release actually triggered shorts to cover.
My projection for October 14 this week:
If overall CPI is pushed to 0.6% by oil prices, but core is only 0.2%, it's highly likely to first crush the bulls, then reverse sharply. For BTC, 83,300 above is the watershed; only above that can we talk about 85,000; if 82,500 breaks, 80,000 is in sight. ETH is more fragile and always falls harder than BTC.
The strategy is simple: don't take sides before the data. For hot CPI, wait for the sell-off to finish before moving; for cold CPI, follow the trend and go long. The real direction is decided by the high of the first 15-minute candlestick after the data release.BTC's current rebound stopped just below $88,000, with a clear on-chain reason.
The batch of investors who bought at the top still have their cost basis suppressing the upward movement. When the price surged to $88,000, holders who bought 1 to 2 years ago sold heavily because those who bought 6 to 12 months ago just broke even here. The price halted just slightly below the breakeven line.
The difference between cost basis and moving averages is crucial here: moving averages only show where the price has been, while cost basis records roughly at what price a certain group acquired their holdings. When the price approaches this level, those who have been stuck for two years just break even and can finally exit. It doesn't explain the chart pattern but why the price can't rise beyond this point—because there is a group of people trying to break even.
This wave of selling has clearly slowed down. The number of break-even sellers is limited; each one who leaves reduces the pressure. The most eager sellers have already exited during previous rebounds. What is now pressing down from above is not a lack of buying interest but the remaining cost basis that hasn't been moved yet.
When looking at these indicators, the key is not to treat $88,000 as a buy or sell point but to distinguish whether you are facing technical resistance or a cost wall formed by a specific group of holders.
In a bear market, the thickest wall is often the price others originally bought in at. Hello brothers and sisters, I am a PhD.
I just saw the CME FedWatch data: the probability of maintaining the interest rate in October is 77.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 22.7%.
Wow, the market actually leaves a 22.7% chance for a rate hike? You should know that a month ago this probability was 0.
Even more exaggerated is December: the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 68.7%, and the probability of a 50 basis point hike is 19.1%. In other words, the market believes the probability of no rate hike before December is only 12.2%.
I think this is the fundamental reason why Bitcoin can't rise. The Fed's expectation has shifted from rate cuts to rate hikes, how can high Beta assets go up?
If CPI exceeds expectations, this probability will be adjusted upward. Tonight's data will reveal the truth. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% $BTC $SOL $ZEC Four positions synchronized in a sharp sell-off, but the underlying logic behind the declines differs.
$BTC, $ETH, $SOL, and OKB all faced collective pressure and retraced today, but each was hammered by different forces rather than a single dominant factor.
Look at the flow of funds:
$SOL experienced the steepest drop, mainly due to selling pressure from derivatives. There was a short position of 120 million scale placed on the order book, while spot holdings did not see large-scale flight.
Now examine the fund structure:
$BTC ETFs saw redemptions of 450 million, while a whale absorbed 15,000 tokens. The redemption and absorption offset each other, so the actual net outflow was not as exaggerated as it appeared on paper.
$ETH tells a completely different story: ETFs have been redeemed for 8 consecutive days, with a cumulative outflow of 640 million USD over 8 days, representing a real and sustained capital exit.
A sharp drop and a real drop have always been two different things.
The former is a leverage-driven panic sell-off, the latter is a genuine cash withdrawal. #September CPI announcement imminent, Hamaak says further rate hikes are still needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profitability performance to be revealed The S&P has risen about 14% this year, with the technology sector contributing over 10 percentage points, and more than 70% of the gains coming from the same group of tech stocks. This concentration is much more solid than the judgment of a "tech peak" because it is a statistically verifiable fact. The index's appearance of strength is built on a very narrow foundation.
Semiconductors have already started to give back gains. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for three consecutive trading days last week, dropping about 2.5% intraday on October 13, accumulating a decline of about 7.3% since the close on October 6. The drop is not extreme, but the direction is clear.
The most interesting part is the other side: the S&P is only about 0.6% away from its high. Semiconductors have dropped more than 7%, yet the broader market has barely moved. Money hasn't left the market; it has just shifted from the hottest areas to elsewhere. The index's stability is not due to a lack of volatility but because the volatility is smoothed out by internal rotation.
This set of data points to a structural issue, not a directional one. The cost of concentration in tech stocks is evident here: when the foundation shakes, the entire index shakes with it. Conversely, as long as money keeps rotating within the market, the index can maintain its appearance of strength until the rotation itself stops.
When looking at this kind of market, the focus is not on guessing whether tech can still fall, but on recognizing a fact: as the index becomes increasingly dependent on a few names, its stability often just means it hasn't been their turn to move together yet. When that day comes, the 0.6% buffer will disappear very quickly.Event: Market sentiment is being weighed down by the rise in crude oil prices (surpassing 100 USD/barrel) due to geopolitical tensions, along with anticipation of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Detailed Analysis Notes: The threat of stagflation: High energy prices pose the greatest risk to the FED's efforts to control inflation. If the upcoming CPI report shows signs of inflation returning, the FED may keep interest rates high for a longer period (Higher for longThe most counterintuitive aspect of venture capital is that most individual outcomes are actually unimpressive: either they go to zero, return the principal, or earn a small multiple. Lining up these projects, the overall tally is still flat or even trending downward.
What truly makes the difference are the very few positions that run to tens or hundreds of times returns. A whole lineup of "no loss, no gain" projects might not outweigh a single one that really takes off. So in this model, the meaning of a "good outcome" is different from elsewhere.
This also explains why the focus is placed on the founders. When returns are determined by extreme values, you can't pick in advance which project will hit; what you can often judge ahead of time is "who is doing the work." Betting on the founder is not a matter of aesthetic preference but a choice forced by the return distribution.
Its other side is equally important: in this asymmetric structure, average effort is chronic bleeding. The key is not to hit every shot but to avoid running out of bullets before the truly worthy bets.
Listening to this kind of experience is not about copying who favors which person, but about distinguishing whether what you hear is correct nonsense or a reminder about asymmetry. Only the latter has operational significance.$BTC OpenAI Controversy and AI Linkage: Crypto Market Follows Tech Stocks with "Half Belief, Half Doubt"
Today, the tech world is unsettled. OpenAI is in preliminary talks to acquire security company Trail of Bits, but its own engineer was arrested by the FBI for allegedly hiding recordings, with the company claiming AI helped pinpoint this. Coupled with the three major U.S. stock indexes closing lower (Nasdaq down 0.28%), the emotional fluctuations in AI and tech stocks are transmitting to the crypto market. Now Bitcoin and the Nasdaq are "wearing the same pants," both being "liquidity-sensitive assets." Market fear and greed are in the "greedy but not frenzied" range, and this half-belief, half-doubt is the healthiest. Don't treat the AI concept as the savior of the crypto world; macro interest rates are the real boss. It's safest to control positions before data releases. #September CPI announcement is imminent, Hamark says further rate hikes are still needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profitability performance to be revealed The most counterintuitive scene in the market right now: oil prices are pushed up due to restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz and pipeline attacks, the G7 urgently releases 100 million barrels of reserves, but $XAUT only stays at 4171, neither rising nor crashing — safe-haven funds are being pulled between a stronger dollar and high US Treasury yields, and this is the real signal. Everyone is focused on the candlestick charts but ignores three harder clues. The first is geopolitics and energy: supply-side shocks should be bullish for gold, but the strong dollar combined with US Treasury yields crushes the upside potential; $XAUT's sideways movement itself is a reading of the stalemate between bulls and bears, holding ground but unable to break through. The second is the real starting gun: CPI and PPI are about to be released. If core CPI lands at 0.2%, the Fed can remain patient; 0.3% will restart the debate; once it hits 0.4%, rate hike expectations will be repriced, with risk assets taking the brunt. The 10-year US Treasury yield is 5.36%, and one-year cash yields a steady 5%, putting the cost of holding non-yielding assets on the table. The third is the quality of institutional funds. $BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $678 million in its first week, $ETH has bled for 9 consecutive days, and $SOL ended a 14-week net inflow — the quality of this rebound is being voted down by capital. Key levels are clear: $BTC cost line at 83,000, lifeline at 85,000, support between 80,000 and 81,000; $ETH touched 2,500 four times, with 2,450 to 2,500 as the defense line; $SOL psychological level at 110, holding it is the only reason to continue holding. Before the data lands, no one is willing to go first #闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注
中线情报哥刚看完隔夜存储盘：$MU 美光跌近4%、闪迪$SNDK 跌近6%，海外存储链集体“冒绿光”。
导火索就一个——长鑫4F² DRAM架构有进展，年底要推DDR5 RDIMM，直插AI服务器内存腹地。
逻辑很简单：
6F²转4F²，单元面积缩约1/3，密度往上抬、$BTC 成本往下压。市场怕的不是“现在就能打”，而是国厂一旦稳定量产，美韩定价权、服务器DRAM毛利全要重算。
但情报哥泼盆冷水：
闪迪主做NAND，跟DRAM不算正面对打，这波是“存储板块估值重定价”被误伤；HBM高端局，长鑫也没那么快碰。
中线结论：
存储超级周期没s，但“靠稀缺讲故事”阶段过了。
美光/闪迪先看止跌，不急着抄；A股存储看长鑫链情绪，但别把技术突破当利润到账。#Market divergence emerges, BTC and ETH show clear divergence in trends
After rebounding near 80961 in this round, BTC tested the 84130 area twice but failed to hold the 84000 level. However, there are sufficient buy orders below 82600, limiting the downside space. This V-shaped rebound has certain support strength. Many people mistakenly judge this as a trend strengthening, but it is actually just a range-bound oscillation recovery.
ETH is weaker, failing to reclaim the key 2626 level after losing it. The previous day's low was 2407, and this rebound was blocked at 2544 and fell back, showing a larger decline and insufficient rebound strength. ETF funds continue to flow out, with a clear preference for BTC. The divergence between strong US stocks and weak Nasdaq and the crypto market is essentially the same: funds shift from overvalued assets to those with stronger certainty.
Currently, there are clear observation boundaries: BTC cannot be considered strong until it stabilizes above 84000, and ETH cannot be considered at the bottom until it recovers 2626. Both major assets await CPI data guidance. Maintain a wait-and-see stance in the short term, no operations. Market funds are like tides, only choosing more stable reefs to dock.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK The more beautiful the rebound, the more you have to beware that it might be a fake smile. Is this wave a real reversal or just a short squeeze fireworks? On the surface, today looks quite lively: BTC bounced from around 81,000 to above 83,700, ETH touched 2,530, SOL returned near 108, as if risk appetite has come back. But when I watch the derivatives market, it feels like a completely different temperature: prices are rebounding, but leverage is quietly increasing. This kind of structure fears not a drop, but giving you hope first and then squeezing. Data snapshot - BTC rebound range is 81,000 to 83,700, but it hasn't truly held above 83,700 to 84,000 - ETH returned near 2,530, 2,560 still not reclaimed, the strong/weak boundary is still pressing overhead - SOL is near 108, 106 is the observation point for whether short-term sentiment can continue - ZEC remains weak, indicating altcoins have not warmed up together Momentum signals and risk signals should be viewed separately. On momentum, selling pressure has indeed eased temporarily, shorts have covered, major coins have not continued to break lows, and short-term sentiment has been somewhat repaired. The risk side is more critical: if this rise is mainly driven by short covering rather than new spot inflows, it is inherently fragile. Once funding rates turn positive and positions continue to build, but price remains stuck below 83,700 to 84,000, a long-short double kill is very likely—first sweeping longs, then shorts. Cross-market linkage is also giving hints. Concentrated sell-offs in semiconductors and the South Korean stock market will suppress global risk appetite; crypto is unlikely to completely decouple. If BTC cannot break above 840 A consumer-grade graphics card can generate a proof for an Ethereum block within 10 seconds.
When I first saw this data from ZKsync, my initial reaction was: here we go again with empty promises.
Looking further, the RTX PRO 6000 single card runs 7,200 mainnet blocks, 99% of which are completed within 10 seconds, none exceeding 12 seconds.
In simple terms, previously generating zero-knowledge proofs required a room full of machines; now, a single gaming-level GPU can handle it all.
This development's significance for $ETH is not about short-term price.
It impacts the most expensive cost in L2 — proof generation. When that cost collapses, ZK rollups can truly talk about scaling.
But don’t get ahead of yourself.
The top spot on the leaderboard is claimed by ZKsync itself; third parties have yet to reproduce the data.
I’m optimistic but more interested in one point: how long will it take other teams to match the same single-card performance?
The faster they catch up, the more valuable this race becomes. If they can’t, it’s just self-congratulation.
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, is institutional demand weakening?
#$ETH Latest Bitcoin Analysis: Oscillating Above $84,000, Market Shifting from "Seasonal Narrative" to "Capital Narrative"
As of October 13, 2026, Bitcoin briefly surpassed $84,000 intraday, with the cryptocurrency market collectively rebounding. Approximately 170,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with total liquidations around $815 million. However, at the same time, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has recently seen significant net outflows, and market sentiment has retreated from "greed" back to neutral. This indicates that Bitcoin is not simply entering an "upward October," but is instead recalibrating its direction amid ETF capital flows, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and macro liquidity."A rebound does not mean funds have returned"
Last week, US spot BTC and ETH funds both saw outflows. SOL funds had inflows for fourteen consecutive weeks, but stopped this week.
What others think:
When the price rises, they assume money has come back.
Actually, it just means fewer people are selling temporarily.
What I think:
Price increase and capital inflow are two different things.
Looking backward, ETH net outflow is about $542 million.
This number reflects the real direction.
The price can rebound because selling pressure has eased.
Not because new money has come in to buy.
$BTC 83000, $ETH 2500, $SOL 110.
Whether these three levels hold depends on whether there are buyers.
If no one buys, the rebound is just a gap.
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#贝森特拟查扣10亿美元伊朗相关加密资产
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
$BTC $ETH这波深V反抽，力度确实够猛。
$ETH 先前一路下探到2400一线，我的多单也被按在水下，浮亏刺眼。但恐慌盘最凶的时候，我没选择砍仓。
现在价格重回2528附近，多单总算转盈。真正有意义的，是2450、2500被迅速夺回——这说明2400—2450有资金愿意接，急跌更像洗盘，而不是无底洞。
$BTC 也从低位回到8.36万附近，给ETH提供了喘息窗口。只要BTC不刷新前低，ETH的修复行情就还能延续。
短线先盯2530：站稳，才有资格挑战2565—2600。这一带是前期成交密集区，也是V反能否升级为趋势反转的分水岭。若放量突破2600，2630—2660会进入视野。
若失守2500，强度打折；再破2450，2400可能重新被测试。
我仍偏多，但不会因一根阳线就喊牛回。2497多单继续拿，是因为市场已给出承接与收复的证据。接下来，就看这道V能否顶到2600门前。#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% 美联储官员讲话！嘴上说再加一次息，骨子里其实偏鸽！大狂风💨今日见解分享：
刚刷到美联储威廉姆斯的发言，给大家翻译翻译这一段话里的潜台词。
他原话意思：
今年通胀被能源、AI基建给抬上去了，短期压力还在，不排除再加一次息稳住通胀。
但是！看好明年通胀会明显回落，靠近2%目标，明年不用继续加息，AI后面产能上来还能反过来压制通胀。
用咱们币圈大白话拆解：
🦅鹰的外壳：留了一手，今年如果通胀不听话，还有加息这张牌；
🕊️鸽的内核：大方向认定通胀会降温，本轮加息周期快要摸到天花板了。
很多人一听“可能再加一次息”直接慌了，怕流动性收紧干崩币圈。
但重点要看后半段：加息大概率就只剩最后一次，后面不会持续猛加息。
风险资产（纳指、加密货币）最怕的是无休止连续加息。如果只是收尾最后一次，和持续加息完全两码事。
但是最后提醒一句：这只是官员个人观点，不是美联储最终决议，变数依旧存在，不能无脑满上。可以小仓位进场，宁可少挣点，规矩不能坏。#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #OKX预言家：第二赛季即将收官 ETH current price is 2511.86, showing obvious short-term pressure. There is a large amount of long liquidation stacked in the 2500 to 2475 range; as long as the price dips down, a chain of liquidations is unavoidable. The 2540 to 2570 range above is a dense area of short liquidation, but RSI is already overbought, MACD golden cross momentum is lagging, and the price is capped at previous resistance levels, so selling pressure above is very heavy. Ripple is having Stripe's Privy develop an embedded wallet for the XRP Ledger, NEAR's Polosukhin claims that on-chain tool expansion will kill centralized exchanges, and meme coins overall rose 5% with a market cap reaching 125 billion. Ledger is investigating the CryptoBilis buyer theft incident, with losses exceeding 86 million USD. Just finished eating the half box of fried noodles left from last night in the security booth and wiped the table.
In terms of trading, short ETH directly when it rebounds to the 2530 to 2545 range, with a stop loss above 2560. The first take profit target is 2480, the second is 2450. If it first drops to 2465 to 2475 and holds, you can lightly go long with a stop loss at 2440 and a target of 2510. Remember, overbought with insufficient golden cross momentum, don't chase highs; short positions are the main strategy.
$ETH
#SanDiskMicronDown, ChangXinTechnicalProgressUnderFocus
@OKXPlanet 别抄底！17万人刚被埋，88.9%是多头——这不是回调，是定点清除
10月13日，加密总市值24小时蒸发4.4%，17.2万人爆仓，88.9%是多头。以太坊多头爆仓1.69亿，比特币多头1.60亿，Solana多头占比94.2%。币安一家处理全网51.9%爆仓单，最大单笔965万美元BTCUSDT多头。杠杆多头的尸体，铺满8.1万美元这条街。
凶手不是庄家，是美债。10年期收益率5.24%逼近24年高位，无风险收益5%+，资金凭什么陪你玩80%波动？比特币ETF单周净流出6.8亿，以太坊5.42亿，合计12.5亿，98%失血在BTC和ETH。稳定币总市值自5月缩水140亿，水在退，别装看不见。
期权市场明牌：交易员狂买7.8万、8万看跌，最大单笔2.04亿；但9万、9.5万看涨持仓45.4亿。多空在8万到9万摆好决战架势。10月28日FOMC，加息定价从66%骤降至18%-22%，这个预期差就是引信。
别站错边。流动性是别人的，爆仓是自己的。山寨季？那是存量资金在狭窄池子里的轮动，不是增量。现在不是比谁赚得多，是比谁活得久。The US is about to release the September CPI data, and I've heard there might be another rate hike this year. It's no wonder the crypto prices can't go up! 😩
It's making it hard to even get a good night's sleep! When interest rates are high, buying government bonds guarantees steady returns, so who would want to throw money into non-yielding Bitcoin? 🤔️
$BTC is currently holding the key level of 81000, consolidating between 80000-85000 for now.
Since October, ETFs have seen continuous net outflows, does this mean institutions are also pulling out? 🤔️
$ETH is weaker around 2500 compared to Bitcoin, also oscillating and consolidating, with ETFs flowing out as well, which is quite frustrating.
$SOL has fallen even harder, dropping from 120 down to around 107, a weekly decline of over 10%, ending a streak of 14 consecutive weeks of ETF net inflows. The performance is indeed not looking good.
The crypto market fundamentally relies on incremental capital inflows to usher in a true bull market.
Given the current situation, a big rally in the short term is unlikely!
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
#半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6% $LINK Sector Comparison｜Oracles: Same Track, Different Performance
LINK +0.58% in the past 24 hours, PYTH -5.18% in the same period.
Between these two coins, LINK is currently stronger. I will first see if it can maintain its advantage, rather than betting on PYTH to catch up just because they are in the "same track."Brother Maji's "BTC short + ETH long + HYPE short" portfolio looks like a hedge on the surface but is essentially a high-leverage hard hold. The BTC short position's profit expanding indicates the short-term bearish judgment hit the rhythm; however, the HYPE short position is floating a loss of over four million, barely surviving on funding fees. If the short squeeze continues, the risk will rapidly escalate. The ETH long position is still at a loss and is pulling against the BTC short position, causing even more volatility in the account. For ordinary investors, this kind of position is better suited as a risk case study rather than a trading signal to blindly follow.
$BTC $HYPE"Don't rush to call the bull back 🐂"
$BTC pulled back from 81,033 to 83,700, just 0.3% shy of the open; ETH bounced from 2,409 to 2,532 but got stuck below 2,560, with 2,580 acting like a ceiling; SOL surged from 101.63 to 108.56, still 3% short of 112.19. When funds face uncertainty, they still prefer to hold the big coin. 🧲
Macro conditions remain tight: Harker hawkish, saying inflation has spread from energy to AI infrastructure and electricity; rate hikes already in September, with nearly 88% chance of another in December. CPI is due Wednesday, who dares to take full risk? 📅
ETFs are speaking too: BTC saw outflows of 679 million in the first week, ETH has been bleeding for 10 consecutive days, and ETHA lost 477 million in a single week. Big coin has buyers, ETH is truly bleeding. 🩸
So, this looks more like a $BTC-led correction, not a return of risk appetite. Watch three key levels:
✅ BTC holds above 84,360; a volume-less rally may still retest 82,800–83,000.
✅ ETH recovers 2,580; losing 2,536 would escalate the pullback.
✅ SOL breaks through 113.
All three moving together signals diffusion; BTC running alone means risk-off. If BTC falls below 83,000, this correction will be discounted. ⚠️#September CPI imminent, Harker says further hikes are still needed The fear and greed index dropped from 67 a week ago to 56, yet Bitcoin is still holding firm around $83,000 — this is not stabilization, but rather both bulls and bears waiting for the other side to make the first move.
In the first week of October, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $678.9 million, Ethereum ETFs have been bleeding for 9 consecutive trading days, and last week crypto ETFs collectively saw an outflow of $1.25 billion. Institutions are voting with their feet, but prices have not collapsed. This divergence has only one explanation: bears dare not increase their bets, bulls dare not exit.
On-chain data is even more intriguing. Of the Bitcoin transferred to exchanges by short-term holders, 59% are at a loss, marking the largest scale of loss-selling in nearly four months. Those who bought at $76,000 in August are now cutting losses. However, at the same time, Glassnode's altcoin season indicator is still flashing, meaning existing funds are still rotating within altcoins and have not fully withdrawn.
The SEC has approved six 3x leveraged ETFs, and the CFTC has established the first regulatory framework for BTC and ETH. Compliance is accelerating, but the incremental funds brought by compliance have not yet arrived. The current crypto market feels like a pot of warm water — institutions are slowly turning down the heat, while retail investors are still debating when it will boil. Watch the Federal Reserve meeting on October 28; that will be the real moment for directional choice.All four positions fell together, but the reasons for the decline are different.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $OKB all took hits today.
However, the reasons for the hits are not the same.
Where did this money come from:
$SOL fell the hardest, pressured by the derivatives side.
There is a 120 million short position hanging on the order book, the spot hasn't moved.
How is this number calculated:
$BTC ETFs were redeemed for 450 million.
At the same time, whales picked up 15,000 coins.
With inflows and outflows, the net outflow isn't that large.
$ETH is a different story, ETFs have been redeemed for 8 consecutive days.
A total of 640 million left over 8 days, this is real outflow.
A sharp drop and a real drop are two different things.
The former is sentiment, the latter is money.
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, has institutional demand weakened? $BTC $ETH #Russia and the US advance diesel supply cooperation, but differences remain on the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire Interest rate expectations disturb risk assets, major indices rebound in a V-shape resolving intraday pullbacks
During the rapid intraday dip in Beijing time, global risk appetite weakened simultaneously, and the crypto sector collectively came under pressure. This volatility correlates with rising US Treasury yields but cannot be simply judged as a direct cause. The driving forces behind the decline of various coins show clear differentiation; on-chain capital signals can distinguish between native sell pressure and sentiment contagion. BTC shows the strongest resilience, with ETF outflows while large holders buy on dips, forming strong support at the 400-day moving average, maintaining a healthy long-term oscillating upward structure.
ETH’s capital flow remains weak, with ETF outflows for consecutive days, compounded by potential sell pressure expectations from wallet transfers, testing key support levels below. SOL’s decline is more due to derivative short attacks, with limited spot capital outflows. OKB is a passive correction driven by sentiment, with solid fundamental support and potential to develop an independent trend.
Subsequent shifts in long-term US Treasury yields and US stock risk appetite will change the current market assessment. The market is like the tide; only when the waves recede can the underwater reefs be seen clearly.
$BTC $ETH $SOL "Why Has ETH Fallen Behind, and When Will It Lead Again?"
Recently, $ETH has clearly underperformed $BTC, mainly due to capital flows: ETH spot ETFs have seen redemptions far exceeding those of BTC. BTC spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $679 million in the week, while ETH ETFs have experienced nine consecutive outflows, totaling $635 million in October. The fundamental recovery speed can't keep up with capital withdrawal, and ETH ETFs have a relatively larger scale proportion, resulting in heavier selling pressure.
ETH was once strong in September, but in October, the rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and cooling rate cut expectations led to a decline in risk appetite. Capital is withdrawing from high-beta assets; BTC, due to its safe-haven attributes, is relatively more resilient, while ETH, being more growth-oriented, naturally weakens in relative price.
For ETH to outperform again, at least one of the following must be met:
1. Macro liquidity loosens, risk appetite recovers, and capital flows back into DeFi, L2, and NFTs;
2. Strong catalysts for ETH itself, such as major upgrades, staking/on-chain revenue exceeding expectations, or favorable regulatory developments;
3. The market shifts from macro risk-hedging trades back to internal crypto ecosystem rotation.
In summary: ETH is not without opportunity, but it lacks the resonance of capital and narrative. Holding support and waiting for catalysts is more important than chasing rebounds.
This is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously; has institutional demand weakened?