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$MU is diving along with SanDisk. Micron's earnings report is actually perfect—revenue of 54.2 billion, gross margin of 87%, but the stock price just won't rise.
Why? Because analysts are no longer asking "Can it make money?" but rather "Has the profit peaked?" Goldman Sachs' trading head said directly: storage is still the epicenter, and concerns about profit peaking are suppressing valuations.
950 is the previous low support level; if it holds, it will form a double bottom; if it doesn't, look to 850. Micron only started a 35.1 billion buyback on December 9, which is too little, too late.
To the brothers fighting hard against Micron, remember one thing: you are betting on the supply-demand gap peak at the end of 2027, but the market is already pricing in that peak early. Time is your friend, and also your enemy. $SNDK previously stated that the storage supply-demand gap wouldn't be filled until 2028, so why is it falling?
The logic hasn't changed, but the market is pricing in a peak profit in 2027 ahead of time. ChangXin announced a breakthrough in 4F² technology, and the market's first reaction wasn't "the rise of Chinese chips," but rather "storage chips will become dirt cheap in the future."
SanDisk's fundamentals are fine—the NAND supply-demand gap won't peak until Q1 2028. But the stock price is reflecting the "worst-case scenario" in advance. 1450 is short-term support; if it breaks, look at 1200.
For those holding positions, hold on as long as 1450 doesn't break $BTC dominance is 59.8%, the entire market fell 3.67% in 24 hours, the big market is dropping, but money is still staying in Bitcoin and not moving to altcoins. The top gainers are Synthetic Dollar +251.4%, JPY Stablecoin +85.8%, plus another Synthetic asset, all stable assets pegged to fiat currency. This sector's rise mostly means market cap expansion, with some people parking money there to earn interest. USDT market cap changed -0.04% in 24 hours, no new issuance, no new money entering the market. This is a stock transfer, moving from risky coins to synthetic dollars to hide. Fear and greed index was 73 a week ago, now 57, sentiment is cooling down. This round is a risk-off rotation, no diffusion into altcoin rallies, in the next few days small-cap coins will continue to weaken along with the market. Conditions for a bullish reversal: USDT market cap daily change turns positive, and BTC dominance falls below 59.8%. The signal that rotation ends is Synthetic Dollar dropping out of the top gainers list, and the entire market turning positive in a single day.Massive capital withdrawal! $BTC and $ETH spot ETF funds are flowing out, institutions are on hold ahead of the CPI release
From the 5th to the 9th, BTC ETF net outflow reached $679 million, ending a three-week consecutive rise.
ETH fared worse, with an outflow of $542 million, marking the largest single-week outflow since January and a nine-day consecutive decline!
Combined, over $1.221 billion in funds have exited.
Why is the capital fleeing? The Fed is hawkish, oil prices remain high, and CPI looms overhead. Institutions aren’t foolish—they’re pulling out to observe. This isn’t a rejection of crypto assets, just a phase of risk aversion and portfolio adjustment.
Interestingly, BTC prices occasionally hold firm, diverging from the fund flow. But ETH reveals its true nature: funds leave, prices fall. Several days of bleeding indicate that institutional demand for ETH is indeed weakening in the short term.
If upcoming inflation data is moderate and rate hike expectations cool down, funds will likely return, and BTC could rebound. If the data is hot, funds will definitely continue to withdraw.
#SeptemberCPIReleaseImminent Hamark says further rate hikes are still needed #BTCandETHSpotETFOutflowsInSync, is institutional demand weakening? Today's market is quite interesting.
BLUR dropped 26%, BOME dropped 23%, $ETH dropped 1.8%, altcoins were collectively slaughtered. But BTC is actually in the green, at 83,500, up 0.99%.
Funds are fleeing from altcoins to BTC. Today the low tested 80,961 again, similar to the last 80,351, resembling a double bottom. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 lines are sticking around 83,000, waiting for direction here.
News: Metaplanet issued $333 million zero-coupon convertible bonds, continuing to accumulate BTC. This kind of listed company is still adding, similar to Jiang Zhuoer’s move of pulling back 75% at 83,000.
Tomorrow at 8:30 PM is the CPI release. Today's movement looks like funds are hiding in BTC, afraid to touch altcoins. Before the data comes out, BTC is safer than altcoins.
Don't add positions tonight, we'll see the outcome tomorrow.Metaplanet borrowed 52 billion yen this time, not planning to buy a single Bitcoin 🧐
This Japanese listed Bitcoin treasury company announced today: issuing about 52 billion yen (approximately 330 million USD) zero-coupon convertible bonds, maturing in 2031.
How the money will be spent👇
1️⃣ About 23.6 billion yen: to repay Bitcoin-collateralized loans
2️⃣ Up to about 28.3 billion yen: to repurchase its own shares
3️⃣ Buy coins: 0
Why repay debt first?
As of September 30, it held 44,000 BTC, with coin-collateralized loans of about 650 million USD, accounting for about 17.7% of Bitcoin net assets. The company's own limit is 10%. The lower the coin price, the higher this ratio.
Repurchase is also scheduled: a new repurchase limit of 60 billion yen was set, with an over-the-counter repurchase planned on October 14 for up to 25.3 billion yen, about 7% of issued shares.
My view:
📌 The treasury company is shifting from "borrowing money to buy coins" to "debt repayment + repurchase," reducing a buyer in the market and lowering leverage
📌 Zero-coupon convertible bonds save interest, at the cost of equity dilution when converting shares in the future
Do you think the treasury company should reduce leverage first or continue to increase positions?
The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile; please be cautious of risks.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #Metaplanet #TreasuryCompanyBTC and ETH ETFs are consecutively bleeding, are institutions retreating?
Currently, BTC and ETH spot ETFs are experiencing significant redemptions. From October 5 to October 9, US BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 679 million USD, ending several weeks of net inflows. ETH is even more severe, with a net outflow of 542 million USD during the same period, marking the largest single-week redemption since January, and funds have fled for 9 consecutive days. Together, the two have seen over 1.2 billion USD outflow.
The main reason for the capital exit is macro uncertainty. The Federal Reserve minutes are hawkish, oil prices remain high, and CPI has yet to be released. Institutions are reducing positions to hedge, which is a phase of defense rather than a long-term bearish stance on crypto.
The market divergence is worth noting: when BTC rebounds, ETF funds are still flowing out, showing a divergence between price and capital; ETH funds are retreating with prices falling simultaneously, clearly signaling a short-term weakening of institutional buying.
The key focus remains on CPI:
If inflation is moderate and rate hike expectations decline, funds may return, and BTC could challenge 84,500;
If inflation exceeds expectations, redemptions will continue, BTC support is at 81,500–82,000, with a break below targeting 80,000. If ETH falls below 2,400, the next target is 2,350.
Be patient, wait for the CPI release, observe market and capital reactions before taking action. $BTC $ETH #SeptemberCPIReleaseUpcoming, Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed
⚠️This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice "FIL: The Bearish Logic at the End of the Rebound"
FIL has pushed from 0.98 to 1.27, with short-term momentum showing signs of fatigue and divergence signals becoming increasingly obvious. The halving on October 15 appears to be positive on the surface, but the halving is more of a long-term narrative; once it happens, it becomes fact, and it may not bring incremental buying in the short term. More contradictory is that the current price still struggles to cover miners' operating costs. If the price is pulled up just to save miners, then who will take over at the high levels?
Data from Filfox shows that bullish retail investors are clustered, including large holders with millions of coins. The more crowded the chips, the harder it is for the whales to keep pushing the price up. At this time, a sharp pull-up is not cost-effective; using the halving sentiment to lure bulls and distribute coins actually aligns better with capital logic.
Therefore, the area around 1.27 can be regarded as the rebound peak, with a bearish bias. If it breaks above 1.3, it may only be to trigger short-sellers' stop losses; 1.4 is not seen for now. Strategically, light short positions can be tried with strict risk control. This is a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. #September CPI announcement imminent, Hamark says further rate hikes still needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #Semiconductor sector sees concentrated sell-off, South Korea's KOSPI drops over 6% BTC and ETH spot ETFs both saw outflows this week, totaling 1.22 billion over the week. Are institutions quitting?
My answer: BTC is just catching its breath, ETH is truly falling behind.
But looking at the longer term, their nature is completely different:
Since listing, BTC has had a cumulative net inflow of 57.6 billion, with net assets of 100.6 billion.
What about ETH? Cumulative net inflow is only 13.2 billion, net assets 14.5 billion, with 635 million running out in October alone, continuing for nine consecutive trading days since September 29.
Key levels are here:
$BTC around 82,500, with a low of 80,427 on October 8. The 50-day moving average is 79,989, the 200-day moving average is 75,840, and 80,000 is the first hurdle.
$ETH has already fallen below the 50-day moving average of 2,501, directly looking at the 200-day moving average of 2,329 below, with basically no support in between.
$SOL at 109.9, 50-day moving average 107.44, 200-day moving average 98.24. Its ETF also didn’t escape, with net outflows of 24.8 million in October, continuing for five days.
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs outflow simultaneously, is institutional demand weakening? The harshest part of Harker's speech this time is not that she called for a rate hike, but that she said there would be "small, more frequent adjustments." On the surface, this sounds hawkish, but in reality, it is paving the way for the Fed to shift toward rate cuts in the future.
The biggest problem inside the Federal Reserve now is not whether inflation is high, but that the policy path is too unclear.
First, let's talk about $BTC Bitcoin. Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows exceeding $680 million, and in the first seven trading days of October, cumulative outflows approached $400 million. ETF funds are withdrawing, but prices haven't collapsed, indicating that there is buying support in the spot market holding the bottom. After Harker's speech, the market's pricing for a December rate hike dropped from 70% to 68%, which is a marginal easing.
Next, $ETH Ethereum. Ethereum spot ETFs had net outflows exceeding $540 million last week, bleeding for nine consecutive trading days, with BlackRock's ETHA being the main outflow driver. Both funding and on-chain data are moving out, and the price is struggling around 2400.
Finally, $XAUT Gold. Central banks have increased holdings for 23 consecutive months, buying 740,000 ounces again in September, with the pace of accumulation increasing month by month. The world's largest gold ETF holdings are also continuously rising. Harker said inflation expectations show early warning signals, which is solid support for gold. Even though it is suppressed by high interest rates in the short term, allocation funds have been buying at the bottom, so the drop is not deep.
Bitcoin and Ethereum spot are holding steady, so don't make short-term moves; keep watching gold. When data comes out, first see how the market digests it; don't chase the first candlestick. #September CPI is about to be released, and Harker said further rate hikes are still needed "It's not a whale, it's the tide going out" (｡•́︿•̀｡)
Don't just focus on a single giant whale address during this round of selling pressure. The ETF excitement that lasted three weeks has just died down, yet $BTC surged to 84,000 like the grand finale of fireworks. $ETH is even more awkward: sliding from 2,700 to 2,420, then stuck at a rebound of 2,540. Its rise can't keep up with BTC, but it never misses a fall ( ˘•ω•˘ ).
$SOL and a batch of public chains are also gasping. It's not that the narrative suddenly worsened, but money found a more comfortable place: the US 10-year Treasury yield at 5.36%, the highest since 2002. With such attractive risk-free returns, why would incremental funds stay up late with volatile assets? (╯︵╰)
So the selling looks more like "many small streams": ETF profit-taking, leverage liquidations, old funds rebalancing, and retreat of chasing buyers. It's not a single whale dumping, but a collective cooling of risk appetite. Popular narratives lose momentum, and altcoins feel the chill first.
BTC can still hold up on consensus, but ETH and public chains reveal liquidity weaknesses. Next, watch two things: when yields will fall back, and whether ETFs will see net inflows again. Otherwise, the rebound might just be a window to escape, not a new bull market ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°).
#September CPI announcement imminent, Hamark says further rate hikes needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #Semiconductor sector concentrated sell-off, South Korea's KOSPI down over 6% Yesterday, I was still wondering whether $SNDK could fall to $1,200. Looking at the latest price action, that possibility is getting more attention. Some traders argue that after such a sharp decline, there can't be much room left to fall. But the reported long-short data tells another story: 81.41% long accounts, with a long-short ratio of 4.38. That suggests bullish positioning is heavily crowded. However, crowded longs alone don't guarantee another drop. 📉 Technical picture: - Price plunged $ETH fell harder than BTC today, and the answer isn't in macro factors but within itself: the biggest buy pipeline from the past year is about to close.
BitMine added over twelve thousand more coins this week, holding positions up to 6.03 million, just one step away from 0.51% of the supply. But management themselves said they’ve basically finished buying. This statement is far more important than adding positions—a silent institutional buyer who accumulated nearly 5% of the supply will exit once their goal is reached, while the ETF side has been bleeding for almost two weeks without stopping. Between one entering and one exiting, what ETH lacks most isn’t a story, but people willing to buy at this price.
Even Tom Lee is warning about pullback risks. Founders can shout all they want, but positions don’t lie.
On the chart, 2400 to 2500 is the bottom formed by the forced liquidations in early October, and it’s the only thing bulls still hold onto; above that, 2600 is the resistance level hit on every rebound this round, then 2800 further up. The price is stuck in the middle, with no convincing move either way.
Storage chains collapsed first in Asia, and the retreat of AI trading is spreading to the chains. High beta assets like ETH are usually the last to be remembered and the first to be cut when funds withdraw.
Before that 50% figure materializes, one less hand to support the bottom means volatility will be that much greater. Liquidation Map: The 82,000-83,500 USD Range Is Packed with "Face-to-Face Liquidations"
This is currently the most dangerous microstructure. The Hyperliquid whale address 0x8eff holds a $20.56 million BTC long position with 40x leverage, an average price of 82,750, and a liquidation price of 80,404, only about 4% away from the current price. This address was force-liquidated on a $61.11 million short position on August 19, and now has reversed to a 40x long, putting itself near the liquidation line.
At the same time, trader AguilaTrades opened a $10.14 million BTC short position with 40x leverage, liquidation price at 83,432, only about 500 points from the current price.
The 82,000 to 83,500 USD range is packed with face-to-face liquidations—both long and short leveraged positions are extremely fragile, and any directional volatility triggered by CPI data could set off a chain reaction of liquidations. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #ASMLearningsPreview: EUV orders are the key focus $BTC buyback news hits low volume at a low point
There are reports that Metaplanet plans to repurchase 96.93 million shares through over-the-counter trading, spending about 25.3 billion yen, but this still needs verification. My first reaction is not "good news has arrived," but that such OTC buybacks usually do not directly impact the order book, so the short-term price transmission is questionable.
The price here is actually more worth noting: the just-closed 5-minute candlestick is at 83,530.1 USDT, close to the low point of the past few hours at 83,375 USDT, and the recent 15 minutes moved only -0.12%, with trading volume lighter than the previous hours. At this position, I am not in a hurry to find a direction; before the news is confirmed, the low volume at a low point looks more like waiting for confirmation rather than having already given an answer.The data hasn't been released yet, but the explanatory framework is already set up.
From Wednesday to Friday, three sets of US data will be released consecutively. The market has been sideways these days, just waiting for them.
Where does this money come from: The market's pricing for an October rate hike is only 19%, and a 25 basis point hike in December is already fully priced in. The difference between these two numbers is just time.
How is this number calculated: Institutions expect the overall CPI to be pushed to 0.6% by oil prices, with core CPI only between 0.16% and 0.2%. Back-calculating, the oil price portion accounts for the majority.
$BTC is fluctuating between 81,000 and 82,500, tried once above 84,000 but couldn't hold, and around 80,000 is the lower support line.
Before the data release, neither side dares to move first; whoever takes a heavy position first is essentially betting on the data.
$BTC Today's short-term position ETH outlook sharing
After a rapid drop impacted by the Korean stock market this morning, the 4H K-line has pulled back from the decline, preparing to build positions and ready to take profits at any time.
Currently, the short-term upward trend direction has been broken, but the larger-scale upward trend remains.
• After reaching a stage high of $2805 on September 21, it retreated; accelerated decline occurred on October 7-8, dropping directly from above 2700 to 2406
• Closed below the steep upward trend line for 7 consecutive trading days (this line is around $2760-2770 today, connecting the August 11 low of 1852 and the September low of 2358)
• Also broke below MA20 (around 2627) and MA50 (around 2556), closing below MA50 for 6 consecutive days
• Short-term structure changed from "higher highs and higher lows" to breaking below the early October low of 2651 — confirming the short-term upward trend is broken
Unbroken part — the mid-term uptrend since July
• The long-term trend line connecting the mid-July low (1803) and August low (1852) is only around 1980 today, with the current price 2511 still about 27% above it
• Price is running above MA100 (around 2245, still upward)
• The large structure of "continuously higher lows" since the July low remains intact: 1803 → 1821 → 2356 → 2406
Key observation levels
• Support below is first seen in the 2350-2410 range. #September CPI announcement is imminent, and Hamarck says further rate hikes are still needed South Korea's KOSPI plunged 6%, dragging down $800 million in crypto leverage.
In the past 24 hours, the entire market saw liquidations of $803 million, with longs accounting for 86%—172,000 people were wiped out. The trigger was not in the crypto circle: the KOSPI index dropped more than 6% in a single day, Samsung and SK Hynix each fell 8%, and Bitcoin was directly smashed through $81,000.
1. What changed? Liquidation concentration was abnormal: $595 million in liquidations were squeezed into the last 12 hours, with Binance alone accounting for half of all liquidations. The largest single liquidation was a $9.65 million BTC long position forcibly closed at $81,773. This was not a slow deleveraging but a concentrated explosion.
2. Why is this worth attention? On the liquidation heatmap of crypto perpetual contracts, SanDisk, SK Hynix, and SOXL appeared—stock contract liquidations even exceeded those of XRP and HYPE. Panic in the traditional stock market is being directly transmitted into crypto leverage through the "stock perpetual contracts" pipeline on crypto exchanges.
3. Which observation is currently more supported? It leans more toward cross-market contagion rather than an endogenous crypto downturn. BTC's own narrative hasn't changed; what changed is the speed of contraction in external risk appetite.
Next, watch one thing: whether KOSPI stops falling when it opens tomorrow. If the Korean stock market continues to crash, the crypto side's long leverage may have only cleared the first layer. $SNDK The data hasn't been released yet, but the explanatory framework is already set up.
From Wednesday to Friday, three sets of US data will be released consecutively.
The market has been sideways these past few days, waiting for them.
Where does this money come from:
The market's pricing for an October rate hike is down to just 19%.
A 25 basis point hike in December is already fully priced in.
The difference between these two numbers is time.
How is this number calculated:
Institutions expect the overall CPI to be pushed to 0.6% by oil prices.
Core CPI is only between 0.16% and 0.2%.
Working backward, the oil price portion accounts for the majority.
$BTC is fluctuating between 81,000 and 82,500.
It tried once above 84,000 but couldn't hold.
Around 80,000 is the lower support line.
Before the data release, neither side dares to move first.
Whoever takes a heavy position first is essentially betting on the data.
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
#BTC与ETH现货ETF同步流出，机构需求转弱了吗？ #贝莱德转向超配短债，下调美股评级 $BTC BTC negative funding rate and short liquidations occur simultaneously.
As of 15:25 today, the average BTC funding rate is -0.0109%, with shorts collecting fees; however, in the past 4 hours, short liquidations amounted to $34.8 million, while long liquidations were only $38,500. Shorts are collecting funding fees while being liquidated—this is the most contradictory signal in the past hour.
1. What has changed? Open interest shrank by 0.2% over 24 hours but increased counter-trend by 0.6% in 1 hour; long positions account for 58.5% of accounts, but active long trades are only 46.7%. Positions remain, but active selling pressure is suppressing the market.
2. Why is this worth attention? Negative funding rates should force shorts to exit, yet shorts are adding positions; open interest is not decreasing but increasing, indicating both bulls and bears are betting simultaneously at the current level, with neither giving up. Once this standoff breaks, the direction will move quickly.
3. Which observation is currently more supported? It leans more toward range compression rather than trend initiation. A large amount of leverage is also stacked near 81,100 on the upside.
From now on, just focus on one thing: the US CPI tomorrow night. Inflation data will determine who gives up first in this bull-bear standoff. If CPI exceeds expectations, shorts under negative funding rates may instantly become the chasing side. $BTC TSMC's revenue hits a record high, so why is the market starting to get nervous?
TSMC's third-quarter revenue has set a record, growing about 50% year-over-year, but this hasn't made the entire chip sector complacent. Asian tech stocks clearly came under pressure today. The market's concern isn't whether AI demand exists, but rather the cost, returns, and duration of this expansion race. Even after the revenue announcement, the stock price still fluctuates, indicating that "good performance" and "exceeding market expectations" are two different things.
This is exactly what makes Thursday's earnings report truly worth watching: whether the gross margin can hold within the guidance range, whether the Q4 outlook will continue to be revised upward, and how management describes the capacity demand for advanced processes and advanced packaging. The market expects profits to continue growing significantly, but the higher the expectations, the more any cautious guidance may be magnified. Revenue reflects orders that have already occurred, but capital expenditures are bets on the future. If customer demand continues to accelerate, capacity expansion is a moat; if growth starts to slow, today's large investments could become tomorrow's depreciation and profit pressure.
Therefore, record revenue does not automatically mean the stock price will keep rising. What the market needs is not to hear "strong AI demand" again, but to see whether demand can sustainably translate into profits, and whether profit growth can cover the increasingly high investments.
Do you think the most critical aspect of this earnings report is the profit margin or the 2027 capital expenditure guidance? #TSMCQ3RevenueRecordHigh, profitability performance to be revealed Coverage: Gold / Crude Oil / AI Storage Chips (SK Hynix, Micron, SanDisk, also covering Samsung, Changxin Memory) / AI Industry / Crypto Market (BTC, ETH) / Macro (US Treasury yields, US Dollar Index, rate hike probabilities) #Semiconductor sector concentrated sell-off, South Korea KOSPI drops over 6% 1. Key Points 1. Spot memory prices are still rising, contract prices no one dares to quote: Barclays data shows October DDR5 spot prices rose 8% month-on-month, up 20% in the last three months; DDR4 rose 4% month-on-month, up 24% in three months; Samsung was the first to suspend October DDR5 contract quotes, followed by SK Hynix and Micron, expected to resume quoting only by mid-November. This means—even sellers themselves believe prices will be higher later, so they hold back from quoting now. 2. The same industry chain gives two opposite answers in price and stock price: Micron closed down 3.88%, falling below $1000, SanDisk dropped nearly 6%, SK Hynix closed down 10.09% in Seoul, Samsung Electronics down 7.39%, South Korea KOSPI closed down 5.46%, triggering a 5-minute pause on programmatic sell orders during the session. Simply put—the market is not crashing due to industry outlook but due to valuation and capital. 3. Broadcom and Intel CEOs said a key sentence on the same day: Broadcom CEO Hock Tan stated in Singapore, "I think the biggest constraint may be capital," financing might become a bigger obstacle to AI expansion than semiconductor, memory, or power shortages;Many people focus only on K-line trading of BTC, but they overlook that its essence is a global high Beta asset, with price fluctuations jointly determined by three layers of forces. 【Macro Level】The core anchor is the 10-year US Treasury yield and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. When interest rates rise, risk-free returns increase, causing funds to withdraw from risk assets; when interest rate decline expectations open up, BTC then has a basis for valuation appreciation. Under the Merrill Lynch clock framework, only when the economy + inflation combination shifts to an easing window will a true bull market be born; a rebound and a bull market are completely different things. Geopolitical wars cannot be simply regarded as positive: at the early stage of conflict, the market prioritizes risk-off, and highly leveraged crypto assets will first experience deleveraging and a sell-off; only when the war continuously pushes up fiscal deficits and weakens sovereign credit will Bitcoin's "digital hard asset" narrative slowly materialize. Do not blindly go long just because of war. 【Liquidity Level】Look at the total market cap of stablecoins, DeFi TVL, and ETF fund flows. Currently, the stablecoin pool expansion is weak, DeFi locked assets continue to be a stock game, and ETF funds repeatedly flow in and out, indicating that incremental funds have not entered the market; the market is just rotating existing funds, with strong but short-lived altcoin pulses. Without new ammunition, any rally is a rebound, not a trend reversal. 【Market Information and Sentiment】The market must distinguish between news-driven and fundamental-driven movements. Short-term positives can only create single-day surges; a true bull market requires resonance among macro, liquidity, and capital factors. The current market is a cautiously optimistic oscillation range, with huge long-short divergences, and can be disrupted at any time by geopolitical news or US Treasury data. The core of trading: do not predict the market, just wait for macroAI存储泡沫开始破裂。
韩国存储巨头集体大跌
市场重新审视AI算力存储的估值溢价。
$SNDK 空单兑现大利润，30x杠杆，浮盈+16555U，收益率703%。
巨鲸数据一目了然：空头巨鲸87.58%盈利，多头大面积被套。
趋势面前，不要硬扛泡沫退潮的下跌。
$BTC $ETH
#9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息
#半导体板块集中抛售，韩国KOSPI跌超6%
#闪迪美光下跌，长鑫技术进展受关注 🌍 1️⃣ Global markets shift to risk aversion: U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board by about 5 basis points, with funds beginning to seek safe-haven assets again. Asian stock markets faced significant sell-offs; South Korea's KOSPI index intraday drop exceeded 6% at one point, and Japan's Nikkei index also declined sharply. Concerns about AI industry valuations, competitive landscape, and capital returns are intensifying. 💾 2️⃣ Storage chips face continuous selling pressure: $SNDK and $MU, after sharp declines in the previous trading day, still faced selling pressure pre-market, with both stocks hitting new phase lows. Trading plan overview: 📍 $MU: The stock price is approaching the previously monitored $950 area. 📍 $SNDK: The $1400–$1500 range is the previously planned observation zone for reassessment. 📍 $SOXL: A small position was previously established, but it is positioned as a short-term trade; if prices hit new local lows, risk will be reassessed. ⚠️ Note that reaching the preset price range does not mean the bottom has formed. The technological progress of Chinese storage chip manufacturer ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) has intensified market concerns about future competition, supply growth, and pricing power in storage chips. ⚡ 3️⃣ Energy shows relative strength, tech sector under pressure: The current market shows clear sector divergence: the energy sector is relatively favored by capital, while stocks related to optical communications, storage, and semiconductors continue to face pressure. This round of adjustment is not only short-term profit-taking but also reflects investors beginning to reassess the costs and profit realization capabilities of AI infrastructure investments In blockchain security, a single addition error in legacy code is enough to cause serious concern.
The XRPL report released on October 9 disclosed an integer overflow vulnerability in the payment engine: specially crafted transactions could create XRP that should not exist. The official statement said a patch has been released, and no evidence of exploitation on the public network has been found. This incident makes me feel that when discussing AI and quantum threats, existing software vulnerabilities should not be pushed to the sidelines.
AI can participate in security testing, but after finding issues, someone still needs to reproduce them, assess the impact, and then have running nodes install the fix. Publishing the report is one step; actually running the patch on the network is another. For quantum risks, the discussion must also include implementation costs. The ML-DSA-44 signature size in the NIST standard is 2420 bytes; moving the new signature scheme on-chain means the costs of transaction size, propagation, and verification all need to be re-evaluated. Simply saying "switch to post-quantum algorithms" is not enough.
I am quite cautious about those who claim security is guaranteed after a single upgrade announcement. What exactly was fixed, which nodes have completed the update, and how to pause in case of anomalies should all be traceable. The security budget must also cover routine maintenance, not just be spent entirely on the scariest long-term threats. Users may not understand every algorithm, but project teams at least need to clearly distinguish between resolved and ongoing issues.
#How to upgrade blockchain security under AI and quantum threats? The yield on the US 10-year Treasury has risen above 5% for the first time since 2023. At the same time, BTC has only dropped 2.00% over the past week and is currently priced at $83,562.9. Yield is the most direct tether suppressing risk assets—so why hasn't BTC been pulled down this time? Let's start with the news. Over the past 48 hours, the market has repeatedly cited the same logic: rising yields mean higher risk-free returns, causing funds to withdraw from risk assets. But the actual market shows: BTC fell only 0.40% in 24 hours and remained between 80,400 and 87,283 over 20 days; the S&P 500 even rose 0.59% to 7,811.54 points. Prices haven't collapsed, indicating this logic hasn't been immediately priced in this time. Now looking at fund flows. The real money movement is reflected in two channels: first, the US spot ETF saw net outflows of about $221.8 million over the last 5 trading days, totaling $366.7 million over 10 days—money is indeed moving out; second, gold rose 1.43% to $4,216.3, and the US dollar index held steady at 102.21. These three figures together paint a picture of "risk budget contraction": funds are withdrawing from BTC but not moving into US stocks, instead going into gold and cash. The yield rise is not without casualties, but the wounds are not reflected in prices. What does this mean for BTC? The key lies in the cause of the yield increase. If driven by a strong economy, risk assets can usually absorb it because the numerator side (earnings and demand) is improving; if driven by inflation or fiscal$BTC
ETF data still looks bad. Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw an outflow of $681 million, with a cumulative net outflow of $386 million in October. BlackRock's IBIT had another outflow of $65.4 million on Monday. Institutions are still withdrawing; that hasn't changed.
Leverage data is somewhat interesting. Bitcoin's own open interest contracts decreased by 6.13% over 7 days, and the funding rate is at the 2.2 percentile over 90 days. Long leverage is still very low, which means even if it drops, it won't be a waterfall-style chain liquidation. But it also means that once shorts start closing positions, a rebound could come quickly. $BTC
If BTC retests the 82,500-83,000 range without breaking it, I will consider closing previous short positions and even trying a small long position. If it breaks below 82,000 with volume, then I will reconsider shorting.
Tomorrow's CPI is still the biggest risk. The market expects a year-over-year increase of 3.7%, with gasoline prices being the main driver; the average price in September was $4.33 per gallon, the highest historically for this period. If the data exceeds expectations, rate hike concerns will return, and this BTC rebound could be directly pushed back. If it is below expectations, then 84,000 could be the starting point for a new upward wave.$BTC
In short: the market has changed, so the strategy must be flexible. #SeptemberCPIReleaseUpcoming, Hamark says further rate hikes are still needed #BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? $BTC has held the 80,000 level twice, bouncing back from 80,985 and 81,000 both times.
Let's break down how this support held this time.
During the dip, all liquidations were longs, with 166 million long positions liquidated in 24 hours, including over 50 million shorts. Shorts only started getting liquidated when the price rebounded to 84,200. The support near 80,000 mostly consists of forced buybacks from shorts covering after long liquidations, not new active buying.
Currently, funding rates are deeply negative, with the market average at -0.0109%, some platforms hitting nine-month lows. Shorts are paying.
Bitmine's $ETH holdings are close to 5% of total supply, 99% complete, with only 76,000 tokens left before stopping accumulation. The most committed marginal buyers are nearly gone.
The daily chart is weakening: price has fallen below EMA5, EMA10, and EMA30; MACD histogram turned negative; RSI at 41. The 4-hour moving averages are acting as resistance, RSI at 33.95 has not bottomed yet. The weekly chart remains neutral.
It now looks like a fragile balance after leverage cleanup, with ETFs still seeing outflows.
Bitmine is about to stop; 30-day spot demand remains negative.
Before Wednesday's CPI, the price will likely continue to consolidate between 81,000 and 84,500.
$BTC Woke up from a sleep, and the market flipped completely.
BTC made a deep V, pulling back from the edge of 81,000 to 83,500, and ETH also simultaneously reclaimed the 2,500 mark. But let's look at the essence first: yesterday, BTC and ETH spot ETFs both saw net outflows, institutions are still withdrawing. Here's the question: institutions withdraw, price V's, so who's pulling?
The answer is clear: short covering triggered by whale liquidations near 80,000, combined with retail bottom-fishing and a fresh start after leverage cleanup. These three forces share a common trait—they come fast but lack staying power. Without real institutional money on the table, the table is unstable. Seven out of ten times, this kind of V is short covering; don't shout reversal just because you see a V.
My yardstick hasn't changed: a one-day V is just a pause, two consecutive days means withdrawal. A true reversal depends on sustained ETF inflows; money coming back is what counts. Tomorrow night at 8:30 PM, the CPI boot drops, and Harker just turned hawkish saying "faster and more frequent rate hikes" are needed. If the data is still hot, this V tonight is very likely a false V.
Discipline remains: don't chase deep V's, wait for a pullback that doesn't break support before watching. A true reversal won't miss a day; chasing a fake rebound is just feeding the market makers. Defense at 80,000 is still there, low leverage before CPI, hold your chips and wait for the fog to clear $BTC $ETH $ZEC A halted tower crane is more honest than any war report—when Trump announced the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire on October 11, the substation in Kyiv was still smoking. This kind of "completion ceremony" without joint acceptance signatures is called unlicensed construction in the building industry.
I've worked on super high-rise projects for thirty years; what I fear most is not the owner changing plans, but two sets of construction drawings being excavated simultaneously in the same foundation pit. On October 12, US and Russian energy officials and companies began talks on diesel supply. Novak personally confirmed that Russia partially dismantled the export enclosure—a quietly poured oil pipeline gallery. But the load-bearing walls of the geopolitical conflict were not reinforced in sync. The US warned Kyiv to stop striking Russian refineries or face a cutoff of weapons and intelligence, effectively posting a "No Blasting Allowed" sign at the construction site. Technically, they were already discussing pipe diameter and flow, but politically, they were still disputing who would sign off on acceptance.
Diesel is the secondary structural masonry of the entire energy framework; it doesn't bear load, but without it, the whole building can't be handed over for use. Russia's partial lifting of export restrictions is like opening a side door in a long-closed construction enclosure, causing the global oil supply chain's flow to be rearranged. Fluctuations in crude oil prices are not just surface color differences but a redistribution of stress on the foundational raft slab—once expectations change, the reinforcement calculations at every node must be redone. The US using military aid and intelligence as leverage to demand a halt indicates that attacks on energy facilities have escalated from tactical actions to core variables in structural safety assessments.
Looking at the linkage with $xMSFT, a US stock token, it is not an independent building but an external corridor hanging off Wall Street's main structure—rising crude oil prices push up inflation expectations, causing interest rate anchors to rise, and the high-rise valuation of tech stocks must face increased wind loads. The three clues of diesel negotiations, refinery attacks, and military aid pressure intertwine to form an unclosed seismic joint. Market sentiment, from the fear and greed index to funding rates, is all rebalancing within this gap.
From the design perspective, the biggest problem in this round of energy upheaval is not the lack of plans but the lack of unified construction reporting standards. A ceasefire without joint confirmation is equivalent to opening for business without passing fire safety inspection; ongoing negotiations indicate the foundation is still undergoing geological exploration, with unknown depth. Russia's easing of exports is a construction channel reserved for itself, while US pressure draws height limits for the opponent; both sides are waiting for the other's load test results.
My professional judgment is simple: any ceasefire announced based on verbal confirmation must be managed as temporary scaffolding, ready to be dismantled at any time. #russiausdieseltalks"BTC Leading the Rally Does Not Mean Risk Appetite Has Returned"
The market has already given the answer: $BTC pulled back from 81,033 to 83,700, just 0.3% shy of the opening price; $ETH rebounded from 2,409 to 2,532 but didn’t even touch 2,560, with 2,580 still the ceiling; $SOL surged from 101.63 to 108.56, about 3% short of 112.19. As uncertainty rises, funds still seek refuge in Bitcoin.
The macro environment hasn’t warmed up. Harker turned hawkish, saying inflation has spread from energy to AI infrastructure and electricity; a rate hike occurred in September, with nearly 88% probability of another in December, and Wednesday’s CPI is imminent. ETFs are more straightforward: BTC saw a net outflow of $679 million in the first week, ETH has been bleeding for 10 consecutive days, and ETHA lost $477 million in a single week. Bitcoin has buyers, but ETH is truly bleeding.
This round looks more like a BTC-led recovery, not a full return of risk appetite. Going forward, watch three points: whether BTC can hold above 84,360—if it spikes without volume, it may still retest 82,800–83,000; ETH must reclaim 2,580, losing 2,536 would escalate the pullback; SOL needs to break through 113. Only if all three move together can it be considered a broadening; if BTC runs alone, it’s still a safe haven. If BTC falls below 83,000, the recovery is discounted.
SOL’s sharp rise is because it’s inherently volatile, not because it’s fundamentally strong. 💥 The real test is whether it can reclaim the lost ground.
#SeptemberCPIReleaseImminent, Harker says further rate hikes are still needed #September CPI announcement is imminent, Harker says further rate hikes are still needed
These old geezers are really bad, they must have opened short positions before today's data came out, which is why they are talking nonsense in public.🤨
Hedge funds are cautious about stocks mainly because the dual volatility in interest rates and energy markets is repricing risk assets:
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September 2026, the first hike since 2023, and hinted at possible further hikes by year-end. The background is that inflation remains elevated, and new Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizes price stability more.
The result is that the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 5.2%-5.3%, reaching a roughly 20-year high. High interest rates directly suppress stock valuation multiples, especially in rate-sensitive sectors. Hedge fund leverage costs also rise, further dampening risk appetite.
The Middle East situation (involving Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz shipping risks, tanker attacks, Houthi armed actions, etc.) is pushing and maintaining high oil prices. Oil prices not only fluctuate themselves but also support rising rates by pushing up inflation expectations, forming a transmission chain of "oil price → inflation → interest rates → stock valuations." Europe is particularly sensitive to energy costs.
Goldman Sachs data shows that fundamental equity long-short funds have significantly reduced net long exposure, with global long-short strategy net exposure only about 0%-9%. This is a direct response to interest rate, energy volatility, and other uncertainties. Fundamental long-short strategies averaged losses in September, while systematic/trend-following strategies performed better. Changxin Technology made an announcement over the weekend, and the entire global storage sector lost a market value equivalent to that of one Changxin. Today, the Korean stock market experienced a circuit breaker again, which is very likely just a turning point in this AI wave. Coupled with the four major giants crazily expanding their production capacity, overall, the storage sector is set to undergo a deep correction, waiting for the narrative to reemerge before recovering.🌪️ On the radar echo map, a warm and humid airflow from the high-pressure zone of traditional finance is fiercely converging with the cold front over the crypto continent—on October 12, a major international banking institution announced institutional-grade custody for a certain USD stablecoin and plans to collaborate with market makers and brokers to expand institutional trading and collateral management, pending testing and approval.
📡 I'm monitoring this data in the duty room: this is not retail weather; it's a systemic circulation adjustment. Stablecoins have been stuck in "localized showers" for the past three years, but now they are beginning to connect to the main vapor channels of traditional finance. Once the three chains of custody, trading, and collateral management are connected, it’s like installing a stable updraft for this cloud system—cumulonimbus clouds grow into typhoons not by momentary convection but by continuous energy supply.
🌦️ Even more noteworthy is the accounting-level wind vane. The US Financial Accounting Standards Board is soliciting opinions on whether qualifying stablecoins can be classified as cash equivalents. In our terms, this is called "recalibrating the pressure baseline." Once the baseline changes, the institutional capital’s direction will shift as a whole: previously, they could only observe this as "peripheral cloud systems," but going forward, it may be directly included in the core pressure field of the balance sheet. Custody is the ground observation station, trading is the upper-air sounding, and accounting standards are the numerical model—only with all three can it be forecasted.
📡 Next, look at the linkage of US stock tokenized assets like $xCOIN. Its current performance resembles a spiral rainband on the typhoon’s periphery: the main body hasn’t arrived yet, but wind shear is already detectable. Every handshake between traditional financial institutions and stablecoin issuers raises the "sea surface temperature" of the entire chain, and sea surface temperature is the fuel for typhoon formation. Institutional adoption is not a thunderstorm; it’s a climate state shift—it changes the season, not just the weather of a single day.
🌪️ From my duty experience, the real danger is not the heavy rain but the unusually quiet, sultry period before it. The current market pricing of stablecoins merging with traditional finance is still in the early stage of "low-level convergence and high-level divergence": the ground is quietly storing energy, but the upper atmosphere has not yet formed a complete outflow. When testing and approval are finalized and the collateral framework is operational, that will be the moment when the jet stream strengthens and vertical wind shear weakens—the cloud wall will quickly close then.
📡 I will continue to increase crypto observation frequency here: closely monitoring the pressure readings of custody approvals, the wind direction changes of trading counterparties, and the cloud map evolution of accounting standards consultations. The integration of stablecoins into traditional finance is superficially a channel issue but essentially a large-scale atmospheric circulation rearrangement. #standardcharteredrlusdYesterday, October 12, 2026, marked the end of the 4-year vesting cycle for early investors and the Aptos team.
Key takeaways:
• Scheduled unlocks have dropped from 11.31 million to 4.54 million APT per month.
- Allocations for the community and the Foundation will continue until 2032.
• Staking rewards have decreased from 5.19% to 2.6% annually. The total supply cap is set at 2.1 billion APT.
• The Foundation has committed to permanently locking and staking 210 million APT.
- The token buybaI stared at SanDisk's candlestick chart for a long time. The time in the lower left corner of the screen was 17:46, pre-market. The price was 1434, down 4%.
I admit, for a moment I thought about closing my long position.
Just for a moment.
Then I opened a document and listed all the negative news from today one by one: Changxin Storage's 4F² DRAM breakthrough, Samsung Hynix's $40 billion buyback exit, foreign capital net selling for five consecutive days, Samsung plummeting 6.7%, Hynix dropping over 8%, and Hammock hawkishly saying rates will still rise at midnight... After listing them, I stared at this list for half a minute,
Suddenly I realized a problem: all these are external negatives, none directly hit SanDisk's own fundamentals.
Data center revenue growth of 437% remains unchanged, Citi's target price of 2100 remains unchanged, and the judgment that NAND supply will be tight until 2028 also remains unchanged. The market is killing sentiment, not logic.
I returned to the market. The 4-hour chart dropped from 1806 to 1408, down 22%, all moving averages in a bearish arrangement, RSI entering oversold territory. This kind of accelerated bottom-hunting move often means the last drop is just ahead. My own long position is still there, with a very small position size, margin only 0.38U, so the forced liquidation price is unreachable. I use the lightest position to test and err; if wrong, I lose only a little money; if right, it's emotional recovery.
I don't know if it will still fall tomorrow. But I know one thing—after listing all the negatives, you find there is actually nothing truly fatal.
I'm just recording today's thoughts. Not advising anyone to follow, nor shouting any slogans. Just feel that this position is worth a look.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#Semiconductor sector concentrated sell-off, South Korea's KOSPI down over 6% The storage sector has taken quite a harsh hit this time, and even I am asking myself if I got in too early?
SanDisk has been pulling back along with the storage sector these past couple of days. The trigger was the breakthrough in ChangXin Technology's 4F² architecture, combined with the post-holiday correction in the Korean market and the early end of the largest buyback in history by Samsung and SK Hynix. In the short term, these are indeed bearish factors, and the market is worried that changes on the supply side will alter the supply-demand balance.
But looking at the longer term, Citigroup just reaffirmed a buy rating on SanDisk in early October with a target price of $2100. The core logic is that NAND supply tightness may continue until 2028. In Micron's latest earnings report, NAND revenue grew 42% quarter-over-quarter, and average selling prices rose about 30%. This is not data typical of an industry at its peak. AI data centers continue to drive demand for SSDs, and pricing power in enterprise storage is shifting from consumer to data center segments.
From a technical perspective, the 1-hour chart shows a long lower shadow around 1408, indicating that there is buying interest trying to support this level. However, a long lower shadow does not mean an immediate reversal; subsequent candlesticks need to confirm it. Short-term resistance lies between 1520 and 1550. Only if volume expands and the price breaks above this range will the rebound's sustainability be worth expecting.
I opened my long position at 1588 and am currently at a floating loss. It’s not easy to accept, but trading is a game of probabilities. The initial logic for buying was the long-term bullish cycle of storage, and that logic has not been disproven yet. As for the short term, I leave it to the market and to discipline—set your stop loss properly, and the rest is just waiting. $SNDK Yesterday, some people were still shouting that ZEC would surge to 1400. What about today?
It didn't even hold 1300; a big bearish candle smashed it straight back to 1208.
Those who chased longs at 1300 probably can't laugh now.
To be honest, I've taken quite a bit of criticism these past three days. Since pulling $ZEC up to 1300, the comment section hasn't stopped—some say I'm stubborn, some say I'm going against the trend, some say I'll liquidate sooner or later.
I didn't respond because I know the market will speak for me.
It rose 200 points in three days, then dropped half of that in one day. With this kind of movement, tell me—is it strong or weak?
No need for many reasons, two are enough.
First, look at the volume. This rebound from 1111 to 1300 saw trading volume shrink by nearly half compared to the decline. Pumping the price relies on real money, not just shouting. Rising on shrinking volume is just playing dirty.
Second, look at the technical structure. On the K-line, the 1300 level is exactly where the 30-day moving average is pressing down. A long upper shadow pushed it back—a classic false breakout.
The RSI is still hovering below 50; the rebound hasn't even touched the overbought zone, indicating the bulls have no strength.
My short at 1218 is currently up 41%, not much, but I'm in no rush.
With this kind of movement, the rebound is just giving you a chance to short.
If it dares to surge to 1250 again, I'll add to my position.
The previous low at 1111 is just below; once broken, 1000 won't hold at all.
Don't ask why; just know the market told me.
$BTC
$ETH
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance to be revealed BTC has reclaimed $83,000. Despite the South Korean stock market falling and Nasdaq futures weakening, this rebound couldn't be stopped. The short-term trend is indeed a bit strong, but the coin price holding up doesn't mean other stories in the industry are holding up as well. A former Ethereum NFT leader, Blur, is an example. With trading volume plummeting over 99% from its peak, the platform ultimately shut down. In a bull market, traffic and subsidies can hype the market up; once the heat fades, you realize how much demand is truly real. Prices can rebound, but lost users and liquidity are not so easy to recover. Even more alarming than project decline is the potential risk to asset security. Ledger issued a warning about suspicious implanted chips found in CryptoBilis devices, involving the risk of wallet keys being transmitted over mobile networks. From market liquidity drying up to security risks in the hardware supply chain, though the problems differ, they ultimately affect users' confidence in the crypto industry. BTC's rebound is worth noting, but don't mistake a single bullish candle for a full industry recovery. The market determines how much you can earn, projects determine if you survive, and security determines how much you ultimately keep.ETH at $2510, are you still holding on stubbornly?
ETF withdrawals have continued for 10 days totaling $780 million, the most loyal bulls stopped buying after reaching 5%, and 2400 was supported twice—but the indecisive position at 2510 might be the last escape window the main players are giving you.
Let's look at the surface first: a dip to 2409 at midnight was forcefully bought back to 2510, with a 24-hour range of 2410-2560. The daily chart shows support near 2400 twice, RSI at 45 neutral, price below the short-term moving average but above the long-term moving average. Everyone is shouting: "Double bottom success, bull market returning fast!"
But I advise you not to get excited yet.
This is not a trend reversal to bullish; it’s a recovery after liquidation.
In plain terms: after a wave of bulls was just liquidated, the market makers pulled it back to see how many retail investors are willing to catch the falling knife.
First thing: ETFs are running, institutions are voting with their feet.
The US stock spot ETH ETF has seen net outflows for about 10 consecutive trading days. On October 12 alone, $85.4 million flowed out, with BlackRock’s ETHA alone withdrawing $75.1 million. Since September 29, cumulative outflows are about $780 million; last week alone saw $542 million outflow, the worst since January.
Are you still waiting for institutions to support the bottom?
Institutions are dumping their chips onto you.
Don’t tell me "long-term bullish." Long-term bullish and short-term selling never contradict. BlackRock talks tokenization while selling ETH—that’s professionalism.
Second thing: the most stable buyer is about to stop.
BitMine (Tom Lee) holds about 6.029 million ETH, close to 4.9% of total supply, just shy of their 5% target. They added 12,500 ETH last week but clearly stated: stop at 5%.
In recent months, BitMine has been the most stable, mechanical spot buyer in the market. Now this "buy, buy, buy" machine is shutting down.
Guess what, when even the most loyal bulls stop buying, who will catch the fall?
Retail investors?
You can’t even catch yourself.
Third thing: the unlocking queue hangs overhead, the deflation narrative is long broken.
The staking exit queue has risen to a yearly high, about 770,000 ETH. The potential selling pressure after unstaking is like a knife hanging over your head.
What’s more painful: after the Dencun upgrade, mainnet fees dropped sharply, burning can’t keep up with issuance. ETH is now mildly inflationary, not a deflationary asset at all.
Are you still brainwashing yourself with "deflation"?
That’s an old script from 2021.
Bull vs. bear showdown, you decide:
On one side:
2400 supported twice, mid-term structure intact
RSI 45 neutral, not oversold yet
ETH/BTC at low levels, theoretically room for recovery
Long-term narratives (tokenization, L2, stablecoin settlement) still intact
On the other side:
ETF bleeding for 10 consecutive days, $780 million outflow
BitMine stops buying at 5%, the most stable buyer’s marginal support gone
Staking exit queue at 770,000 ETH, selling pressure looming
Fed raised rates in September, dot plot still hints at one more hike
This week’s CPI data is hot, ETH gets hit first
BTC at 83,000, ETH/BTC weak, altcoins have no independent rally
Key levels: 2400 is the lifeline, 2575 is the ticket, 2510 is the meat grinder.
Resistance above: 2550-2575 (short MA + recovery line, failure to break means a pullback) → 2600 → 2660-2740 (previous high concentration, only a volume breakout counts as recovery)
Support below: 2490-2500 (trendline) → 2430-2480 (key defense) → 2400-2410 (lifeline) → 2220-2280 → 2140-2240 (100/200-day MAs)
Daily close below 2400 means abyss below.
4-hour close above 2575 is needed to talk about reversal.
2510? Indecisive, perfect for a wick.
Trading strategy (range-biased, no chasing):
Perpetual longs:
Don’t chase at 2510. Consider light entries on pullbacks to 2430-2460 if 1-hour chart doesn’t make new lows. Stop loss below 2385. First target 2550-2575, reduce position there. Only if 4-hour closes above 2575, extend target to 2660-2740.
Perpetual shorts:
Don’t short at 2510 top. Wait for 2550-2575 resistance to hold with upper wick or volume shrinkage, then short. Stop loss above 2600. Targets first at 2460, then 2410. Don’t hold shorts if daily doesn’t close below 2400.
Spot:
Mid-term positions can be held but no adding at this price. To add, wait for one of two conditions:
Daily close back above 2575 and hold;
Drop to 2300-2400 with ETF outflows starting to narrow.
Before BitMine stops buying, don’t expect mechanical bottom support.
Position rules:
Single loss controlled within 1% of total capital. Lower leverage around CPI. If funding rate suddenly turns very positive, it means bulls are crowded in the rebound; prioritize reducing positions, not adding.
ETH now is like August 2025—
Everyone thinks "it’s dropped so much, it should rebound," but once ETFs stop and vaults stop supporting, price slowly slides from 2700 to 2400.
Don’t mistake a rebound for a reversal, don’t mistake a repair for a bull return.
ETFs are running, vaults are stopping, what are you still waiting for?
2400 is the lifeline, 2575 is the ticket.
2510 is in between, suitable for waiting, not heavy commitment.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $OKB ICE filing landed, but OKB dropped 11% in 7 days. Where is the problem?
1. OKB's role on the X Layer is just Gas; tokenized US stock trading does not consume OKB.
2. The joint venture company does not hold OKB; settlement layer profits go to ICE and OKX's parent company.
3. The trapped positions are in the dense trading zone of $130-$135; whenever it rises, someone sells.
In my OKB valuation, the traffic part is already sufficient, but the token value part is still lacking. Short-term follows the market trend; long-term depends on whether the ICE joint venture can find new scenarios for OKB.
However, the story has been quite lively recently. The OKX ICE filing from the 10 groups is real. The joint venture company of OKX and ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, submitted a 24/7 trading notice for 63 tokenized US stocks to the SEC, running on the X Layer's Uniswap v4 permissioned pool, with counterparties USDC/USDG/USDT.
Andrew Cuomo is the co-chairman of this joint venture. If this path succeeds, OKX will upgrade from a crypto exchange to a global stock settlement infrastructure. In the long run, I think OKB is a good asset.Sisters, the guillotine for ZEC has completely fallen last night.
My biggest regret now is not decisively adding to my position and rolling it over when it was at 1300. Looking at this K-line now, my guts are filled with regret.
Don’t rush to bottom-fish and go long; first, look at the nine-figure USD that Grayscale withdrew overnight.
$ZEC dropped from 1315 to 1122 in 24 hours, now barely holding around 1213.
The moving averages are in a bearish alignment pressing down, and the MACD green bars can’t recover at all.
This is not a pullback; this is clearly the dog whales preparing a guillotine meal for the bulls.
Looking further at Grayscale’s ZCSH ETF, there was a weekly net outflow of $93.56 million, with assets under management falling from nearly $1 billion peak to $751 million.
On October 8, another $18.66 million flowed out.
Institutions are running, but retail investors are greedily taking the chips.
Going deeper, the most fatal factor now is human nature.
There are too many users going long at this position; everyone thinks it must rebound after such a big drop, right?
But the market never rises just because you think it has fallen enough.
The more it’s like this, the more the dog whales want to kill it further down, burying all the bottom-fishing chips.
This human nature game is more real than any K-line.
My short position at 1656 is now steadily earning 1336% profit.
In terms of operation, you can slightly add shorts when it rebounds to around 1230-1250, with a target firmly holding 1000 or even 800.
Don’t ask me when to enter anymore; my position is already set here.
$BTC $ETH
#September CPI announcement imminent, Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed
#Semiconductor sector concentrated sell-off, South Korea’s KOSPI down over 6% Recommendation from the $NEAR Grayscale fund: a drop of 13.6%, bulls have not yet surrendered, and high-beta public chains are also being bloodied.
Following the risk-off trend of the major market, the public chain sector has become a disaster zone. $NEAR experienced a single-day pullback of 13.6%, ranking among the top decliners alongside BOME (-30%), BLUR (-29%), and STRK (-28%).
1. Reason for the decline: NEAR's previous rally was entirely driven by leveraged funds, relying on three main narratives: ETF expectations, token issuance volume, and the Intents ecosystem. When the price surged to the 5.9-6.0 range, the market was already severely overbought.
When BTC fell below 82,000, triggering a market-wide deleveraging, approximately $19.8 million long positions in NEAR were forcibly liquidated, causing a stampede.
2. Market signals: Current open interest is $349 million, with an annualized funding rate maintained at +11%, indicating that on-exchange bulls have not completely given up, and there remains potential downward selling pressure.
3. Going forward, NEAR will likely oscillate between 4.8 and 5.6 to digest floating supply; if the major market breaks down, the price may drop to 4.5; if the 4.5 support line fails, this round of upward structure will be invalidated, with a downside target of 4.0. Intraday trading range is 4.85-5.35, with an intraday stop loss reference at 4.75. This morning BTC was still struggling at 80,961, then surged directly above 84,000 in the afternoon, rising 1.55% intraday, rebounding over 3,000 points. Tomorrow (10.14) evening, the US September CPI data will be released. The price surge at this time today is intriguing. What is the market betting on? Betting that the core CPI month-over-month will be 0.2%, meeting expectations. Barclays and Morgan Stanley both forecast the core month-over-month at 0.24%, slowing from August's 0.29%. If the core really drops to 0.2%, the market will interpret it as "inflation has peaked, no rate hike in October," and risk assets will rise. Currently, the probability of a rate hike in October has fallen below 20%, and the market has basically priced in "no rate hike." But I want to remind you of a few overlooked variables. First, the overall CPI may look very bad. The year-over-year expectation is 3.6%-3.7%, a significant rebound from August's 3.4%, mainly driven by oil prices. If the overall CPI surges above 3.8%, even if the core meets expectations, the market will panic—because Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly emphasized recently that "inflation has not yet reached the target," and Harker said this morning he "leans toward small, frequent rate hikes." Second, the probability of a rate hike in December is already 70%. Even if there is no rate hike in October, the market is pricing in a hike in December. This means the positive news of "inflation peaking" has already been partially priced in, and tomorrow's data release may be "good news fully priced." Third,China Changxin's storage technology progress has led to a collective decline in the storage sector, which might be today's biggest hotspot. In fact, as early as the Q2 earnings season, it was evident that China's breakthroughs and development in artificial intelligence are inevitable. Moreover, China has high production efficiency and quickly releases capacity to overseas markets, so the entire existing AI industry chain is inevitably impacted. However, this impact is most obvious in the short term on the cost-effective and mid-to-low-end markets. I believe China's breakthroughs in the AI industry have played a "catfish" effect role, posing a short-term threat to the global AI industry chain, but in the medium to long term, it can promote the AI industry to move toward a path of high efficiency and low cost. This is actually a good thing; "competition" often brings a promoting effect in the long run. #SanDiskMicron decline, Changxin technology progress under focus However, although the storage sector is impacted in the short term, this does not mean the fundamentals are destroyed. Internationally, leading high-end storage and semiconductor chip manufacturers still hold technological advantages, so at least for the next few quarters, there is no need to worry about replacement by Chinese production capacity. This year, the significant decline in Korean semiconductor and leading storage companies is exactly the macro suppression effect I mentioned in my previous article yesterday, where positive factors are diminished and negative factors are amplified. Ultimately, this is due to high long-term bond yields plus interest rate hike expectations, leading to insufficient market liquidity confidence. Next, we need to wait for Wednesday's CPI release plus earnings reports from US banks, ASML, and TSMC to boost the market and hedge against the current negative sentiment and lack of confidence. In terms of trend, fundamentals are not destroyed, and the industry narrative still exists, macroeconomic pressure continues.The weakness across memory stocks may be driven by a growing concern: China’s progress in DRAM technology could reshape the global semiconductor supply landscape. Reports surrounding ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) and its development of domestic 4F² DRAM have raised expectations of potential mass production by year-end. If manufacturing scales up successfully, investors may begin pricing in stronger competition, future supply growth, and pressure on memory pricing and profit margins. Elon MIt would be such a pity if Bitcoin and Ethereum keep dropping like this.
I placed a short on Bitcoin at 84350, and it just surged up to 84134 at its highest.
I placed a short on Ethereum at 2560, and it reached a high of 2537.77.
There should be this kind of close miss feeling.
But if it keeps falling, it confirms that this V-shaped reversal is a short squeeze plus a buy-side support rally.
During the decline, selling volume expands, but during the rise, volume actually shrinks and meets resistance, making it easy to fall back for a second drop.#Storage sector fund divergence intensifies, foreign capital selling Korean manufacturers drives sector down
The market shows some funds exiting, while other funds are accumulating chips at low levels. Foreign holdings data shows Samsung's foreign shareholding ratio has dropped to a nearly 17-year low, with continuous selling of Samsung and Hynix by foreign capital, spreading panic sentiment outward. The storage sector is under overall pressure, and SNDK is impacted along with the sector.
From institutional research reports, Citibank maintained a buy rating last week with a target price of $2100, judging that NAND supply tightness will continue until 2028; Morgan Stanley proposed that AI is triggering a storage super cycle. The company's data center revenue grew 437% year-over-year, and the Sentinel series new products are positioned in security and automotive storage tracks. 25 analysts unanimously rate it as a buy, with an average target price of $2173, nearly 40% upside from the current price. The short-term selling by funds has not changed the original fundamental logic of the target.
Does the short-term stampede of funds mask the true flow of long-term chips? Like the tide temporarily covering the reef, the reef itself has not shifted.
$SNDK $BTC $ETH #SanDisk and Micron decline, ChangXin Technology progress draws attention
Storage stocks have dropped sharply these past two days.
On October 12, Micron fell 3.88%, SanDisk dropped 5.97%, and Samsung and SK Hynix also came under pressure. Today at the Korean market open, Samsung and Hynix directly fell over 7%, with the entire storage sector adjusting.
Why the drop? Two reasons. One is that ChangXin Memory disclosed progress on its new generation 4F² DRAM architecture, planning to launch server memory products by year-end. The market heard this and thought a competitor is coming, future capacity expansion expectations heated up, although actual mass production capability is not yet verified, sentiment ran ahead. The other is that Samsung and Hynix's large-scale stock buybacks are nearing completion, foreign investors are reducing holdings, and after a big run-up, a short-term correction is normal.
What’s the impact?
First, on miner hardware costs, if storage chip prices truly fall due to competition expectations, it’s good for miners as payback periods can shorten. But ChangXin’s technology is still in the validation phase, so short-term impact is limited; don’t expect hardware prices to drop immediately.
Second, the storage stock decline drags down tech stock sentiment, indirectly affecting risk appetite in the crypto market. Bitcoin is already pressured by macro factors, and when tech stocks weaken, short-term sentiment gets even weaker.
Here’s my view.
Don’t panic, this is a normal correction after a big rise. AI demand remains, the storage cycle isn’t over, and short-term profit-taking needs to be digested.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH