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$SNDK hit stop loss twice yesterday, and today I covered some long positions. I really didn't expect SanDisk to drop so much overnight. I originally thought it would stop falling at 1520, but it kept dropping below 1500. Recently, AI development has been below expectations, dragging down storage, but I think these are just small fluctuations in a high-growth industry and it will return to normal later. So even though SanDisk fell from 1900 to 1400 this time, I still dare to add positions against the trend. From a short-term perspective, a rebound should come soon. This morning, Changxin Technology dropped 5 points but is now about to turn positive. Ideally, SanDisk should also follow with a rebound tonight. Swing traders should seize the rebound opportunity tonight. Officials call for rate hikes, but the market just doesn't buy it! Tomorrow's CPI release will show who's right
Tomorrow at 8:30 PM sharp, the September CPI will be announced. The most interesting thing now isn't the data itself, but rather—on one side, Fed officials hawkishly say "we still need to raise rates," while on the other side, the market votes with real money saying "you dare to raise?"
Cleveland Fed President Mester just dropped a statement yesterday: inflation is still hot, so rate hikes will continue without question. But CME data slapped that in the face: the probability of holding steady in October has shot up to 79.5%.
In other words: officials say "I think we should raise," the market says "I bet you won't." Both sides are arguing fiercely, just waiting for tomorrow's CPI to be the judge.
Institutions are also being quite sneaky in their forecasts: overall CPI might jump from 3.4% to 3.7% due to rising oil prices, which sounds scary. But core CPI month-over-month might actually drop from 0.3% to 0.2%—basically "scary on the surface, cooling underneath." This kind of data is neither clearly up nor down; how to interpret it depends entirely on investor sentiment.
As for me, I've already unloaded my leverage. Betting heavily on direction at this critical moment is like crossing the street blindfolded. You think the data will be mild, but it surprises on the upside; you think a bombshell is coming, but it meets expectations. Either way, you're right only half the time, so better to sit on the sidelines and watch.
Honestly, every CPI release in recent months has felt like New Year's Eve, with everyone glued to their screens waiting for the announcement. And the result? Prices neither rise much nor fall much—just a lot of volatility. The real money is never made by betting on the data, but by acting after the dust settles.
Tomorrow at 8:30 PM, the whole nation will be watching the big show start on time. I've got my little stool ready, just waiting to see which side this CPI will support—whether it props up Mester or smacks him hard in the face.
Three takeaways I've figured out:
1. Officials can talk tough all they want, but don't take it too seriously. The market's real-money odds are more reliable than any speech.
2. Don't bet your net worth before the data is out. An 80% probability sounds safe, but the 20% surprise is what really kills.
3. Being a bit slow to react won't lose you big money; betting on the wrong direction will. Instead of nervously shaking, better to wait for the results before making a move. Short sellers were "reverse liquidated," with BTC and ETH as the main battlegrounds
In the past 24 hours, the liquidation scale has clearly tilted toward the short side. BTC total liquidations reached $52.5 million, with shorts accounting for $42.71 million, over 80%; ETH total liquidations were $53.78 million, with shorts at $42.42 million, nearly 80%. On a shorter timeframe, ETH's 12-hour short liquidations hit $18.63 million, surpassing BTC's $9.67 million, making it the fiercest battleground in this round of "short sweeps." Combined, shorts were wiped out by over $85 million.
XRP's volume is small, with 24-hour liquidations at $2.07 million, shorts at $1.49 million, still biased toward the short side. Although the absolute value is limited, the structure indicates this is not a single-coin anomaly but a concentrated effort to squeeze out short positions in the market.
The problem arises: intensive short liquidations often bring passive buying, driving price pulses upward. But is this kind of rise a true reversal or a liquidity hunt-induced bull trap? If the bulls cannot continue to absorb volume after the liquidation peak, the risk of a short-term pullback remains. In the next few hours, whether BTC and ETH can hold the dense liquidation zones will determine if this round marks the start of a trend or just another trap.Thanks to my fellow traders for the concern. If I can break even before this evening, I will definitely treat myself to a pork knuckle rice meal!
Good afternoon, brothers, October 13th, 12:30.
The market finally pulled back a bit this morning. The floating loss on my three deeply stuck long positions has finally narrowed, temporarily out of ICU.
Saw a fellow trader's message this morning: "Whether you hold or not doesn't matter, if you hold on, you get a bowl of pork knuckle rice." That hit hard! To get into the crypto circle, I drank plain water this morning, had fast food at noon, and usually just steamed buns with pickled vegetables.
If I can really hold on today, I must grit my teeth and add a pork knuckle rice dinner!
Regarding operations: I closed my $CL short position this morning. Although the direction was right, the funding rate was too high, eating up 20% of my profits. Such low liquidity tokens can't be held; better to run first.
Current strategy remains unchanged: hold tight and wait for CPI! As long as tomorrow night's CPI surprises on the downside and inflation cools, short covering will give me a chance to escape. Holding positions is not reckless; it's waiting for the data to land before deciding life or death.
If you successfully hold your positions, what will you reward yourself with?
Feel free to share.
I think pork knuckle rice is a good choice, Longjiang pork knuckle rice!
$BTC $ETH - Upper resistance: 2,566 (MA10) and 2,578 high point, above that is the dense moving average zone between 2,610-2,626
- Lower support: 2,480-2,500, followed by the 2,407 low point
- Holding above 2,500, the rebound is likely to continue; if it falls back below 2,480, the rebound is considered a failure
🧠 Midday insights
1. Yesterday mentioned that oversold conditions would lead to a rebound, which was confirmed today, but be more cautious at resistance levels during the rebound and avoid chasing the rally
2. The search bar hotspot mentioned the upcoming September CPI release, with Federal Reserve officials stating further rate hikes are needed; data around this time tends to be highly volatile. Additionally, Tom Lee warned that the sharp drop in the South Korean stock market could bring short-term shocks to the crypto market, so watch out for a pullback this afternoon
3. Manage risk first during the rebound, and don’t increase your position size just because prices have risen
⚠️ The above is only a personal review and does not constitute investment advice. Contract trading carries very high risk, so please control your position size carefully! XDP is indeed the hottest on Base today, with trading volume surging to over 100 million dollars, while the market cap is only a bit over 20 million. This ratio looks somewhat absurd.
From what I see, it’s essentially something built around xRP yields. After the token was issued on Base, it got hyped up.
Trading is very active, with buying and selling roughly balanced, but the pool liquidity is only about two million. This volume can easily crash the price badly at any time.
From my perspective, it seems more like short-term funds chasing hotspots on Base rather than having deep fundamental support.
The hype is understandable, but if you really want to get in, you have to weigh the risks yourself. Don’t just get carried away by the trading volume. ￥￥￥$XDP ARB is weaker than BTC and ETH in the updated data. Positive news for the ecosystem includes integrations related to xStocks and the USDG stablecoin; however, good news about the network does not automatically create buying pressure for the ARB token.  Recovery scenario: Holding the recent bottom near 0.184 USD and breaking back above 0.20 USD. Downside scenario: Losing the bottom near 0.184 USD, opening the risk of continuing to test lower price levels. What to watch: Volume, altcoin money flow, network activity, and token unlock schedule. Viewpoint: there is no basis yet to call this Midday Summary｜V-shaped rebound recovers 83,000, but it's not time to call a reversal yet
Account update: Total assets back to 100.36U, today's profit +1.49U (+1.50%). Rebounded from last night's low of 64.35U, but this is a recovery after a pullback, not a turnaround. The account hasn't returned to principal yet, so stability remains the focus today.
📊 Bitcoin $BTC ｜Current price 83,479
Intraday low touched 80,961, then pulled back to recover 83,000, up 2.04% in 24 hours. MA5 and MA30 around 82,900 have been reclaimed, KDJ at 38-39, RSI6 back to 51, bearish momentum temporarily eased. But the upper MA10, MA20 (83,700-83,960) and 24-hour high 84,348 have not been broken, so this is a rebound, not a trend reversal.
- Resistance above: 83,700-84,000, then 84,348
- Support below: 82,900, then the low of 80,961 and the 80,000 level
- A strong close above 84,000 is bullish; falling below 82,900 remains bearish
📊 Ethereum $ETH ｜Current price 2,515
Ethereum is stronger than Bitcoin, up 2.81% in 24 hours, rebounded from intraday low of 2,407, retook MA5 and MA60 (around 2,497), key level 2,480-2,500 reclaimed yesterday. KDJ still low, RSI6 at 42, repair space remains From 2020 to 2026, the crypto world has repeatedly proven: buying coins is just the beginning; being able to keep them safe and accessible is what really counts. On CEX: Fear of theft, freezing, and misappropriation; if you use leverage, you also have to worry about liquidation. You think the assets are in your account, but when trouble comes, they might actually be debts. Using a hardware wallet: If it's not open source, you worry about a black box; even if it is open source, you can't guarantee the physical device hasn't been tampered with. Components might be added! You buy a safe, but someone installs a bugging device inside. There are also fake devices, swapped devices, preset mnemonic phrases, physical attacks, and fake companion software. Add blind signing, malicious authorizations, forgotten PINs, lost backups, forgotten passphrases. You might defend against others but end up successfully defending against yourself. Using a PC wallet: Fake installers, trojans, remote control, clipboard hijacking take turns attacking. Wallet files get stolen, weak passwords are cracked offline; hard drive failure or system reinstall without backup is another dead end. Problems with random number generation can happen again; a long mnemonic phrase might not save you. Using a Web wallet: Custodial ones require trusting the platform; non-custodial ones still require trusting the code delivered to your browser. Fake domains, search ads, official site tampering, malicious scripts can all turn "restore wallet" into "hand over secrets." You think the webpage looks the same, so it must be the same wallet. Using plugin wallets: Fake ones steal, real ones can be poisoned. In 2023, Ledger Connect Kit had issues; at the end of 2025, Trust Wallet's official plugin version 2.68 was compromised.Leveraged longs, a day of being ground down 😵
Yesterday before the US stock market opened, the crypto market already knelt. Once the US market opened, selling pressure intensified, and the scene became quite ugly.
In 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $785 million, with longs accounting for 88% — on average, 9 longs went down with 1 short. BTC liquidations hit $165 million, ETH $167 million, SOL over $60 million. Leveraged longs were collectively carried away (╥﹏╥)
Key points:
· $BTC lowest at 81,032, just $632 above the previous low of 80,400
· $ETH broke below 2500, lowest at 2,409
· $SOL lowest at 101, the 100 mark is right ahead
The most dangerous thing isn’t the drop itself, but the negative feedback loop of “price drop → liquidation → intensified selling pressure.” Once the chain of forced liquidations starts, prices are driven by leverage, temporarily disconnected from fundamentals.
But on the other hand, liquidation data ≠ spot market exit, and definitely ≠ a bottom signal. After contracts are cleaned out, the spot market will still lie where it lies. Calling a bottom now is not much different from catching a flying knife 🗡️
What do you think, will it continue to dip? 🤔#BTC and ETH Spot ETFs See Simultaneous Outflows, Is Institutional Demand Weakening? Impact on $BTC and $ETH?
📊 Outflow Scale
In the first week of October, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $681 million, while Ethereum ETFs experienced net outflows for nine consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $635 million. However, Bitcoin ETFs still recorded a cumulative net inflow of $57.6 billion this year, with net assets exceeding $100 billion, indicating that institutional holdings remain solid.
🔍 Core Reason: Interest Rate Pressure
The direct driver of this round of outflows is the surge in U.S. Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 5.5%, with oil prices breaking $100 and a stronger dollar, all of which suppress high-risk assets. The capital withdrawal is an active reduction by investors amid macro uncertainty, not forced liquidation. Once yields decline, the willingness for capital to flow back is usually strong.
⚠️ Main Impacts
· Short-term price pressure: ETF redemptions convert into spot sales, directly depressing coin prices. BTC briefly tested a two-week low, and ETH dropped near the $2400 support level.
· Sentiment contagion: Institutional fund outflows combined with large on-chain holders transferring tokens can trigger "resonant selling," amplifying market panic.
· Key observation signals: If the 10-year Treasury yield remains high, outflows may continue; conversely, if yields fall and Bitcoin holds support near $80,000, institutional demand is likely to recover. The CPI release matters less as a single inflation verdict than as a test of breadth. Energy may lift the headline rate while a slower core monthly reading points the other way. With pause odds near 79.5%, the data could force markets to reassess whether policy restraint is enough, with rates and the dollar likely setting the first reaction.
#SepCPIHikeWatch $RSR SPIKED TO 0.003150, THEN PULLED BACK TO 0.002178. One giant green 4h candle left the 0.001473 low far behind, and red candles followed. I respect where price settles more than where it spikes.
Is 0.002178 a base forming, or just a pause?10.13 Tuesday Yang Fan's BTC and ETH Analysis
BTC is currently around 83,200, ETH around 2,507. Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $681 million, and Ethereum ETFs have had net outflows for 9 consecutive trading days, totaling 542 million. BlackRock's ETHA had a weekly outflow of 477 million, the largest source of selling pressure. Institutions are still withdrawing, and funds have not returned.
On the macro side, the September FOMC minutes were hawkish; 9 of 18 members believe another rate hike is needed this year. Wednesday (October 15) September CPI is the biggest variable this week. If core CPI month-over-month reaches 0.3%, rate hike bets will revive, and BTC may further decline.
Technically, the 84,500-85,000 range is a strong short-term resistance for BTC, with multiple rejections confirming its validity. There is a need for short-term oversold correction, but no reversal signals are seen yet, so it can only be considered a rebound.
Trading reference:
BTC: Short directly at 83,400-84,000, target 82,500; if broken, look to 81,500; if further broken, look to 80,500.
ETH: Short directly at 2,540-2,520, target 2,480; if broken, look to 2,440; if further broken, look to 2,400.
$BTC $ETH #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 $ZEC crashed through 200 dollars overnight, and I chose to add to my position
Last night ZEC dropped from 1,348 to 1,122, 200 dollars gone just like that. Others' stop-loss points became my entry points: position increased from 0.03 all the way to 0.8, with 50x leverage, liquidation price at 1,126—only 4 dollars away from this morning's lowest point.
At the time of writing, ZEC bounced back to 1,218, floating profit +12.7U, the biggest gain this week. But honestly: this is not skill, it's gambling. The cost of winning once is developing a habit of losing everything.
On the chart, the low at 1,122 did not break the previous low from 10/8, so the bulls still have support; 1,237 is the next key level, only if it holds above this will this correction be considered over.
My discipline: no more adding positions before holding above 1,237; stop-loss set at cost 1,194, the worst outcome for this trade is breaking even, no turning into a losing trade.
How much leverage have you used at bottom-fishing at most? Let's discuss in the comments.
Risk warning: personal live trading record, not investment advice, high leverage can lead to liquidation at any time, please do not copy trades.$ETH This ID's view: Go long after the price pulls back to 2480 and stabilizes, stop loss at 2410
From the perspective of Chan theory structure: The previous 2405 formed strong support. After dropping to 2407 yesterday, it quickly rebounded and surged, breaking through the weekend's consolidation price center, indicating strong willingness to go long at the support level
From the Wyckoff perspective: The rapid drop to 2407 released much less bearish momentum than the previous drop from the same price to 2405, indicating that this was profit-taking for risk avoidance, not distribution selling
Key observation: Whether the price stabilizes within the central price range or quickly moves away from the centerHarmak's statement that "further rate hikes are still needed" sends a clear hawkish signal on the eve of the September CPI release.
She directly points out the core issue: inflationary pressure is no longer confined to a single area but has spread more broadly. The demand shock brought by AI development, increased willingness of companies to pass on costs, and persistently high inflation all raise the risk of an "inflation mindset."
Harmak believes that policy must remain restrictive, interest rates need to be higher, and she favors small, quick steps to avoid being forced into a large correction later.
This means that even though recent employment data has slowed, there are still voices within the Fed that believe it is too early to relax. Although there was already a rate hike in September, she implies that the current stance may still be insufficient to quickly bring inflation back to target.
For the market, this reinforces expectations of "possible further rate hikes within the year" and adds uncertainty to the October meeting.
If the CPI data again shows core stickiness or energy transmission, views like Harmak's may gain more resonance; if there is a clear cooling, hawkish pressure may ease.
Regardless of the outcome, Fed communication has shifted from "whether to hike rates" to "how to more effectively maintain restrictiveness." Investors need to reassess the interest rate path and asset pricing, especially in rate-sensitive sectors. Volatility may increase before the data is released. #September CPI release imminent, Harmak says further rate hikes are still needed September CPI data is about to be released, with the market's attention highly focused. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack's latest statement is clear: current monetary policy still needs to be tightened further to push inflation back to the 2% target as soon as possible.
She pointed out that inflation has been above the target for several consecutive years, and the biggest risk is that the "inflation mindset" may gradually become entrenched. As business input costs rise, more and more companies are passing prices on to consumers. If demand-side pressures (especially AI-related investments and overall economic resilience) do not cool down, inflation may remain elevated for a longer period. Hammack emphasized a preference for "small, more frequent" rate adjustments rather than waiting for pressures to accumulate before making large corrections, as this is more conducive to businesses and households planning ahead.
She did not lock in a rate hike at the October meeting but clearly stated that rates need to be at a higher level to sufficiently restrict demand. The financial environment is currently still neutral and requires more tightening. The labor market is relatively stable, giving the Fed more room to focus on inflation.
This CPI will be one of the key data points before the October policy meeting. The market has partially priced in a possible rate hike before the end of the year, but core inflation stickiness, energy price volatility, and demand resilience will determine whether the path accelerates. As a voting member this year, Hammack's hawkish signals are worth attention. After the data release, expectations and pricing may be adjusted again, and investors need to closely track core components and service inflation performance. #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息 Bitcoin and Ethereum show strong V-shaped rebound after the second probe
Be patient and hold positions. The base positions entered at 81000 can all be kept without moving. Observe whether the resistance at 84200 can be broken later.
If it can't break through, you can try shorting for a short term.
Overall, still mainly favor low long positions.$BTC is currently hovering around 83450, down 0.35% in the last 24 hours, with an overall bearish trend. But I've been watching the funding rate for a while, and it's ridiculously low, indicating that both bulls and bears are cautious, and no one is willing to pay interest.
This kind of market is the most deceptive. If you short expecting a drop, it can spike up at any moment; if you go long expecting a bottom, it will slowly grind down on you. I once lost 200,000U in this kind of situation—seeing a drop and shorting, only to be taken out by a rebound without even having time to set a stop loss.
Now my strategy is simple: a small 5000U position, lightly going long near the 83090 support, with a stop loss at 82800, and the first target at 84000. If it breaks below 83000, I switch to short without holding the position.
When the funding rate is extremely low, it often signals an upcoming market reversal. Don't bet heavily on direction; try small positions to test, and add more once the trend is clear. Never hold a losing position without a stop loss—staying alive is more important than anything. $ #September CPI announcement is imminent, and Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed Bitcoin has formed a typical deep V-shaped bottoming rebound pattern, with a rapid dip followed by short-term capital replenishment and short covering driving the price back up.
This rebound was anticipated early on and is a technical correction after overselling during the downtrend, not a bottom reversal. The overall bearish trend rhythm remains unchanged.
The deep V pattern easily creates the market illusion of "the price can't fall further and must reverse," but essentially it cleans out low-level panic selling and some short-term short positions.
After the rally, heavy resistance still exists above. This rebound only provides an opportunity for a second high short position. After consolidation, the bearish trend will continue to unfold!
Brothers, after covering shorts at 82700, it should be around 83000 now. Still hold on! Target is a break below 81000!#Microsoft Releases Next-Generation AI Chip, Stock Hits Yearly High
Microsoft is truly determined this time, unveiling its next-generation self-developed AI chip Maia 300.
Announced officially on October 12, with plans for large-scale deployment starting in 2027. Microsoft claims that the AI inference efficiency per unit of power is about 40% higher than leading GPU systems, and rack-level throughput can reach up to 7 times that of the previous generation. Upon the news, Microsoft's stock rose 1.14% that day, closing at $541.15, setting a new historical closing high.
What’s the impact?
First, the computing power market landscape is changing. Microsoft developing its own chip aims primarily to reduce dependence on external GPU suppliers and lower computing costs. Major companies are moving away from Nvidia, which in the long term could diversify computing power supply and make prices more reasonable. But in the short term, since leading players’ self-developed chips are not yet widely deployed, external GPU procurement will still be competitive, and hardware costs won’t drop immediately.
Second, the AI concept in the crypto space will further accelerate its differentiation. Look at giants like Microsoft, investing real money into self-developed chips, steadily moving toward the computing power infrastructure. Those AI concept projects that only write white papers and have no actual products will die off even faster. Capital will increasingly concentrate on targets with real computing power and practical applications.
What’s your take?
$BTC $ETH Institutions are scooping up, so why is BTC still sluggish? 🤔
Institutions focus on the “future,” while short-term traders watch the “intraday.” Morgan Stanley’s MSBT Bitcoin ETF has already accumulated 10,639 coins, about $880 million — this isn’t surfing, it’s long-term seed planting. 🌱
So why is the price still under pressure? Three cold winds are blowing together:
🌍 Unfavorable macro environment: Middle East pushes oil prices up, Brent crude once surged to $102; U.S. Treasury yields skyrocketed, 10-year at 5.36%, 30-year at 5.73%, both hitting 24-year highs, squeezing risk assets hard.
💸 ETF hemorrhaging: On October 7, Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of $485 million, the largest since June 25; from October to now, BTC and ETH ETFs combined have nearly $1 billion outflow, funds are clearly withdrawing.
🦅 Fed hawkish tilt: September minutes show most officials think another rate hike may be needed before year-end, with AI investments and energy prices fueling inflation.
To translate: institutions are betting on fiat depreciation in three to five years, hedge funds are profiting from this month’s price spreads. Some watch fiscal deficits and sovereign credit, others watch U.S. Treasury yields and rate hike paths. BTC is caught in the middle: short-term drained by macro factors, long-term supported by institutions. 📉➡️📈ETH bounced back from 2407 to 2512, but the ETF has been selling for ten consecutive days
Earlier it was still at 2407, and in the blink of an eye, it returned near 2512. ETH made quite a strong rebound. However, looking at the 24-hour period, it is still down overall. A rebound that pulls people out of the water doesn’t mean they’ve already reached the shore.
More strikingly, yesterday the Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of about $85.4 million, marking the tenth consecutive day of outflows. The contract fee rate is almost zero, and the open interest decreased by about 1.4% in one day. It currently doesn’t look like bulls are crowding in; it seems more like selling pressure has temporarily eased.
This Thursday, developers will discuss the upgrade directions for Glamsterdam and Hegotá. It’s a discussion about the roadmap, not an immediate upgrade deployment. There is hope in the news, but the funds have not yet cast their real votes with actual money.
Whether it can hold steady around 2500 and whether ETF outflows will stop are more worth watching than a sudden sharp rebound. For those trading contracts, do you dare to treat 2500 as an observation point now, or will you wait for the capital flow to turn first? $ETH The big coin keeps going back and forth, what is it trying to do? It looks easy to trade, but once you do, it fails, right?
The big coin retraced all the way down to 80985, then recovered above the 81270 support level, and immediately started a rapid rebound. Doesn't this scene and feeling seem very familiar?
The last round was exactly like this! It also recovered like this! What we need to do is find relative patterns! Last round, I bought more around 82000–82500, and this round too. Damn, I held it back... floating ball, but luckily this time it came back quickly with no casualties!
So for today's intraday trend, here’s how we see it:
Key levels: 83132–82180, just use these as a reference!
Trading advice:
Go long near 82000–82500,
Targets: 83766–84583
If no opportunity is given, then we take a retracement. Remember, it must be a retracement, don’t be greedy! The range is 84300–85000, place a short order! After finishing, run with your pants up! Don’t hesitate, if you get caught, it will be very painful! $BTC "Three Candlesticks, One Slap"
At midnight, $BTC was still at 84,200. I thought waiting a few more seconds could earn me a bit more. But then a big bearish candle slammed 82,480 onto the screen, dropping 1.4%. The unrealized profit just now was like a cooked duck, flapping away, and it even snatched some of my rice along the way. The profit and loss line rose from my feet to my head; I stared at it like staring at my own greed.
$SOL was even more straightforward. Sliding down from 116, I thought it was a step, reached out to catch it, placed a limit order at 112.5, current price 110.8, down 2.3%. Missed the cheap catch, ended up with a handful of flying knives. The market maker may not know me, but the candlesticks seem to.
$ETH is still the same, 2,515, down 0.5%. It touched 2,560 then softened back, added two more hands, just following the market's breath. It doesn't kill me, just grinds me down.
In the end, the market punishes greed and slowness. Next time with unrealized profits, take half off the table first, push the rest to breakeven. Meat on the bone can't be let fly again.
For personal review only, not investment advice.
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test
#Institutions continue to position, why does BTC still face pressure?
#Voice of Trading: Your experience deserves to be heard BTC fell below 81,000 then pulled back to 83,000, ETF is still withdrawing
The scariest moment in the Asian session: BTC once dropped below 81,000, then quickly pulled back above 83,000. The Korean stock market fell over 6%, chip stocks were all green, Nasdaq futures were weak, but the crypto market didn’t seem to dive along this time.
But don’t rush to call a reversal. Yesterday, the US spot BTC ETF still had a net outflow of $65.4 million. The price bounced from the low point, but institutional funds didn’t turn positive simultaneously. Contract rates were slightly positive, and open interest decreased by about 1% compared to yesterday, more like leverage was pulling back a bit first.
Tomorrow the US CPI will be released, and oil prices and inflation expectations are still causing disruption. 81,000 was the recent low, and there is resistance above 84,000. Let’s first see if it can hold, no rush to conclude a rebound.
If you hold contracts, will you keep positions before CPI or reduce leverage first? $BTC Having lunch at noon, a group friend suddenly threw out a question: Can I get on board with RSR?
I was a bit stunned. This coin just appeared on the hot list, up 25% in 24 hours, with trading volume 27.8 times the usual, current price 0.00207. But when you ask what it actually does, none of the usual daily tipsters in the group can give a proper story. No narrative, no new features, purely a fund-driven gamble inside—whoever is slow to catch it gets hit.
I replied: First tell me why you want to buy it. He said because it’s rising. Alright, I know that reason well; I thought the same three years ago and paid my tuition.
This coin’s 24-hour rise on the hot list is really good, and it’s up 20.9% over 7 days with obvious volume increase. But remember how those speculative coins trapped you last year—a surge with volume, then a half-year slow decline without even a rebound. If you want to play, use money for a meal, treat it like buying a lottery ticket, don’t bet heavily. I’m holding back, saving bullets for when there’s a real story. $RSR Is there at least one more weekly-level pullback for Bitcoin and Ethereum? It's really too early to bottom-fish now!
Inflation data hasn't been released yet, but the market has already taken a hit in advance. BTC has yet to reclaim 85,000, ETH is under pressure simultaneously, and the rebound is weak. The biggest danger now is not missing out, but blindly bottom-fishing.
Three signals to watch out for:
Macro pressure: Middle East tensions are escalating, oil prices and inflation risks are intensifying, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, combined with hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, risk assets continue to be under pressure. CPI and PPI have not yet been announced, so uncertainty remains in the market.
ETF continuous outflows: From October 1 to 9, BTC spot ETFs had a cumulative net outflow of about $386 million; ETH had a cumulative net outflow of about $645 million as of October 12, indicating weak spot buying support.
Concentrated long liquidations: Approximately $785 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, 172,662 people forcibly liquidated, longs account for about 88%, with a long-to-short liquidation amount ratio close to 9:1. Concentrated leverage clearing may further amplify the downtrend.
With the triple pressure of macro, capital, and liquidations overlapping, whether the weekly-level correction has ended still needs confirmation.
Better to miss a rebound than to rush to catch a falling knife. Wait for price stabilization, volume improvement, and spot buying to return before considering the next move. $BTC $ETH $SOL
#SeptemberCPIReleaseImminent Hamark says further rate hikes are still needed #TSMCQ3RevenueHitsRecordHigh ProfitPerformanceToBeRevealed #BTCandETHSpotETFOutflowsSimultaneous HasInstitutionalDemandWeakened? When blood pressure drops to 2.19, family members often still ask, "Is it a cold?" It's not a cold. It's cardiac output failure, and what I see is a valve at 95% of the Bollinger Band position already torn—this is the most dangerous image that intraoperative ultrasound can capture: the price is stuck at the upper band, with only 0.4% margin above, while the mid-cycle Bollinger Band reading of 116% means the vessel wall has been stretched beyond anatomical limits, and the clamp position at -1.1% is right overhead.
A 24-hour fluctuation of 5.09% is not ordinary arrhythmia. This is a precursor to ventricular fibrillation. The 1-hour RSI has surged to 68.1, the long cycle to 61.8, both channels simultaneously entering the sympathetic storm zone, and the trading signal clearly says SELL—when myocardial oxygen consumption and perfusion pressure begin to diverge, only amateurs continue to administer inotropes. A short-cycle RSI over 64 indicates insufficient anesthesia depth, and a long cycle approaching 62 means extracorporeal circulation cooling is too slow; combined, these two indicators mean what we call "looks okay, but actually sliding irreversibly on the table."
Diagnosis: This is acute right heart overload failure, not ischemia. Shorting is the only surgical approach.
📉 Short:
Entry: 2.26 (current price +3.4%, wait for pullback to confirm valve insufficiency)
Take Profit 1: 1.98 (-9.5%, first assistant sends pathology)
Take Profit 2: 2.00 (-9.5%, simultaneous ventricular closure)
Stop Loss: 2.51 (+14.6%, immediate release if major bleeding occurs)
Why place the stop loss so far at 14.6%? Because in cardiac surgery, the worst is premature hemostatic clamping that turns a repairable tear into an un-sutureable necrosis. 2.51 is the safe boundary for aortic occlusion; if breached, the entire surgical field floods. The target range of 9.5% space exactly matches the complete perfusion drop from the current price to the lower Bollinger Band—this is not speculation, but an anatomical path already mapped by preoperative CT.
Don't perform extracorporeal circulation in an emotional state. Price decline is just a line on the ECG; the real lesion is the short-term compensatory failure of systolic blood flow. Those who hesitate while hemodynamics are still stable will have no second chance when cardiac tamponade occurs on the table.
Suture complete, close the chest.$ZEC SPIKED TO 1,349.09, DUMPED TO 1,123.33, THEN BOUNCED TO 1,217.20 ON THE 1H CHART. Today shows +4.29%, yet 7D still reads -10.97%.
I won't let one green day erase a red week. Can the 1,123.33 wick hold as a floor, or was it just a flush?Today is the last trading day for Bitwise's DOGE ETF; liquidation starts tomorrow, and on the 22nd, the money will be returned to the remaining investors. The assets have dropped from 2.5 million seed funds to only 725,000.
When I saw this news, my first reaction was that it was over, maybe a crash was coming.
But after looking again, I found something interesting. There are still other DOGE ETFs running in the US market, like Grayscale's GDOG and 21Shares' TDOG, which haven't closed. Moreover, the entire DOGE ETF saw a net inflow of $327,000 last week, marking the third consecutive week of money flowing in.
One closes, others remain open.
What really stunned me was another piece of data. The spot flow of DOGE flipped from net inflow to net outflow in the past week, with a week-on-week change of 599%, about $57 million withdrawn from exchanges. Many people see this number and panic sell, but think about it: if $57 million worth of DOGE was dumped on the market, the price would have crashed already. It hasn't. The money most likely moved from exchanges to cold wallets, just staying in a different place.
I'm watching this signal for $DOGE.Short position earned 928%, not because the direction was right
$SNDK has held this short position for a long time.
Several times in between, it almost closed at 1600.
What does this number mean:
928% is the leveraged return, not that the coin price dropped 928%.
With several times leverage, this percentage is amplified by that multiple.
How is this number calculated:
Shorted from 1769 to 1547, the price dropped just over 12%.
Multiply by leverage, it becomes 928%.
The direction was right, leverage is the amplifier.
The reason for the drop is not complicated.
Next quarter's performance did not meet expectations, the hype from the flash memory price increase is basically over.
Once the news came out, the storage sector dropped together.
Now the news has been digested, and funds have returned.
1547 is the key support for this wave.
The hourly chart shows signs of stabilization.
If it breaks below, the decline will truly continue.
#SanDiskMicronDecline, ChangXinTechnologyProgressUnderFocus $SNDK Core drivers of the decline: concentrated release of geopolitical risks
① Ukraine energy ceasefire “verbal agreement” falls through
Trump previously announced a suspension of attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, but Zelensky later clearly stated he was unaware of any ceasefire news. The market has serious doubts about the actual implementation of Trump’s statement, and geopolitical risk premiums have been re-priced into oil prices.
② Oil tanker attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surge
Iran reported that an oil tanker was attacked and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil broke above 107.25, reaching a new high since September 16. The surge in oil prices directly pushed up inflation expectations, strengthening market concerns about the Fed continuing to tighten policy. Former Goldman Sachs chief FX strategist Robin Brooks pointed out that current oil prices have priced in too many geopolitical risk factors; although the volume of crude transported through the Persian Gulf has declined, it is still better than the most tense period in March-April.
③ US-Iran tensions escalate, suppressing risk appetite
The escalation of US-Iran tensions combined with the crude oil rebound directly lowered risk appetite, with BTC quickly pulling back 0.34% within 15 minutes. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #Microsoft releases next-generation AI chip, stock price hits yearly high $BCH TAGGED 257.5 AND SNAPPED BACK TO 272.2. The 4h shows a long lower wick after a steep slide. Today is +2.52%, yet 7D still reads -12.72%. One green candle isn't a trend;
I need follow-through. Can BCH reclaim 288.8, the 24h high?📊 加密市场情报 · 2026-10-13 📉 当日整体情绪：看跌 中东地缘风险急升推高油价，半导体/存储板块回调，加密市场ETH多单遭清算，整体偏防御 💬 微信群聊总结：看跌 窗口内行情先热后崩：12日下午 Upbit 连上 RSR、GTC 等老币带来枯坐打新机会，W、STRK 等老登币集体异动；晚间 CZ/何一与徐明星隔空开撕，大盘走弱，13日早间韩股与美股半导体（海力士）暴跌带崩币圈，BTC 跌到 8.1w，PONS 持续新低，RH 链生态几近熄火。Papertrade(PAPER) 挖矿分红是少数赚钱的事。 • Upbit 密集上小市值老币（RSR/GTC），机器人秒拉，枯坐仍有肉 • PONS 持续新低到 0.2x，RH 链不上自家现货，群内普遍套牢 • 10-13 早盘全线暴跌，韩股熔断+海力士/存储崩，BTC 8.1w • 何一 vs 徐明星再度开撕，群内共识：一吵架就跌，做空胜率高 • PAPER 刷量挖矿成本已降至 0.004-0.006，头矿者靠分红回本 • BSC/SOL meme 流动性枯竭，上 Alpha 门槛降至约 10-15M 🎯 叙事 / 主题聚$BTC
The 30-year US Treasury yield has already broken 5.6%. Although the Treasury's two rounds of long-term bond auctions were barely supported, that was achieved by "attracting buyers with high yields." If the upcoming CPI data isn't too bad, or if Wash's speech on Friday is milder than expected, risk assets might collectively catch a breather, and BTC could very well rebound accordingly. I don't want to short near 83,000; I'd rather wait for a rebound to the 84,500-85,000 range before considering adding positions.
My trading idea (personal opinion only):
82,500 is the bottom line, not the target. If the weekly close confirms a break below this level, I will hold shorts without hesitation aiming for 77,000, which is the cost zone with the densest positions according to on-chain data. But if the price stabilizes above 83,500 again and holds for several hours, I will reduce my position and observe, not stubbornly fight the market. The CPI on October 14 is the biggest risk this week; I won't heavily bet on direction before the data is released.$BTC
To put it simply, shorting BTC this week is not about betting that Bitcoin itself has problems, but betting that macro sentiment will crush risk assets. I have only one feeling: the old monster called inflation has not been killed.#SeptemberCPIcomingsoon, Hamak says further rate hikes are still needed #BTCandETHspotETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? #Tokenizedassetsaccelerateexpansion, how far is large-scale implementation? Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother!
Damn! What kind of market is this! BTC jumped directly from 80961 to 83330 in a V-shape, gaining over 2300 points!
Just now near 81000, I saw a bunch of people shouting that if it breaks below 80,000, it would go to 78,000, but then a big bullish candle completely buried the shorts. The manipulator’s tactic is really tricky: first smash down to clear longs, then pump up to blow out shorts, harvesting back and forth.
Now the 30-minute MACD red bars have surged, indicating a strong short-term rebound. But with the CPI coming tomorrow night, whether this V-shaped rebound is a real reversal or a bull trap, no one can say for sure.
Brothers chasing longs, be careful, there is often a second pullback after a V-shaped rebound. Don’t get carried away, control your position size.
#September CPI announcement imminent, Harker says further rate hikes still needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? $BTC $ETH $ZEC #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed
The boss has something to say
TSMC's Q3 revenue reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a 50% year-over-year increase, setting a new historical high. But with the revenue record already announced, the real focus now is whether profits can grow in tandem.
The market is watching the full financial report on October 15. The key point is not revenue, but gross margin. The company itself expects 65% to 67%, lower than Q2's 67.7%. Strong demand for AI chips and high utilization of advanced process capacity are positives, but depreciation and cost pressures from capacity expansion are also rising. Inventory is also critical; if inventory turnover days lengthen, it indicates demand might not be as tight. Some comments suggest flipping the inventory page first, which is the right approach.
The impact on crypto is indirect. If TSMC's profits exceed expectations and AI hardware remains strong, funds will continue to stay in chips and cloud infrastructure, drawing liquidity away from Bitcoin. If gross margin falls short of expectations, the semiconductor sector will pull back, risk appetite will shrink, and Bitcoin will come under pressure. Both scenarios lean bearish.
I hold long Bitcoin positions at 83,000 and short positions at 86,500, hedging both sides with a light position. No one-sided bets before CPI data. Long position stop loss at 81,500, target 86,000. Short position stop loss at 87,500, target 84,500 to 85,000. Whichever target is hit first, reduce that side first.
TSMC's earnings report is an industry validation, not a directional switch. Don't chase the rally or panic sell; set stop losses properly. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck.SOL is trading near $109.6, down around 3.1%. After retreating from $115, I expected buyers to step in and deliver a decent bounce. Instead, the recovery stalled, and selling pressure returned. What looked like a discount turned into another uncomfortable position. I'll be watching the $108–$110 zone closely; losing it could invite further weakness, while a sustained move back above $112 would offer some relief.⚠️ $SNDK SanDisk: How far can the rebound go? $1504 is the key!
Although SanDisk is more resistant to decline than Hynix, after hitting the lower edge of the $1860–$2350 resistance zone, it still experienced a pullback. Meanwhile, OpenAI's revenue fell short of expectations, once again sparking market concerns about AI investment returns, and the storage hardware sector has started to come under pressure. Warning signs have already appeared.
Next, don't get swayed by short-term fluctuations; focus on $1504.
If this level is broken down with high volume and the price fails to recover promptly, this rebound may be coming to an end. Conversely, if the support holds, with volume shrinking on the pullback and expanding on the rebound, there is still a chance to challenge the upper resistance zone again.
Ultimately, investing is not about chasing explosive gains every day. Many people always think about how to grow their money quickly but overlook one truth: it's very difficult to consistently earn beyond your understanding. Even if you occasionally make a lucky profit, without judgment and risk awareness, you may end up giving the profits back to the market.
Market ups and downs are normal. Instead of frequently chasing hot trends, it's better to cultivate your financial mindset, understand why you buy, where the risks lie, and under what circumstances you should exit.
Whether SanDisk continues to rebound or weakens depends on whether $1504 can hold. If the support is effective, keep watching for upward opportunities; once a break is confirmed, adjust your expectations promptly. Investing is not about short-term luck but about cognition, patience, and risk management.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Heavy positions in US stocks have plummeted, can the Wall Street big shots pull the market up? Can't hold on much longer!!!
SNDK current price 1442, 15-minute timeframe still below all EMA lines, indicating a weak recovery after a sharp drop, RSI6=50, no clear bullish reversal signal. Resistance above at 1471 (EMA55), short-term support at 1427, currently just a slight rebound after overselling, rebound priority is to test resistance levels, not suitable for chasing longs directly.
SK Hynix current price 1083, down 6.21%, bears are stronger, price far from short-term moving averages, RSI6=25.3 entering oversold zone, DIFF remains below DEA, downward momentum has not fully exhausted. First resistance above at 1139 (EMA55), support below at 1080, oversold does not directly mean bottom, risk/reward ratio for bottom fishing is low.
Looking at BTC linkage, BTC has rebounded quickly in the short term, RSI is close to overbought, there is a risk of a pullback later, storage assets themselves are highly elastic, the market will face pressure again once it falls back.
Overall strategy: heavy long positions are not recommended; if you want to speculate on short-term longs, wait for a stable hold above moving averages with volume confirmation before trying small positions, strictly use stop loss. $BTC $SNDK $SKHYNIX
The above is only a market review and does not constitute any trading advice. #September CPI announcement imminent, Harmak says further rate hikes needed #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, is institutional demand weakening? Although I posted this morning advising everyone to buy ETH at 2450 and hold for 40 points, the rebound has now gained over 60 points, so it's quite satisfying 🤑$ETH Testnet shutdown is not an exit scam, it's a map change.
Neura has shut down the v1 testnet and Neuraverse together to move to the next phase.
Many people's first reaction is "the project is dead."
I think we shouldn't jump to conclusions just yet.
The key lies in the snapshot.
Points, leaderboards, tasks, event history—all have been saved.
What does this mean?
It means the previous gameplay is ending, but your records haven't been wiped.
Simply put, the old map is no longer active, and the new map hasn't been announced yet.
What we should focus on now is not what has been shut down, but what will be introduced in the next phase.
If the new content connects well, this shutdown is an upgrade.
If not, the snapshot is just a commemorative photo.
As an old holder, I have a conditioned reflex when I see the word "snapshot."
First, take a screenshot to save it, then talk about faith.
#Tokenized asset acceleration expansion, how far is large-scale implementation? $ETH 📊BTC stuck at 83,400, don’t rush to act before the CPI night!
Current price 83,407, up 0.83% in 24 hours, but the 4-hour chart is still in a downtrend channel, with 84,000-85,000 as a dense resistance zone. Market sentiment has clearly cooled down—the Fear & Greed Index has dropped from 67 to 56, returning to a neutral range. The capital flow is also retreating: BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $65.4 million yesterday, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading.
On-chain signals warrant caution: a certain whale has cumulatively sold 837.8 BTC, reallocating to buy 27,500 ETH, worth about $69.68 million. Another ancient whale, silent for years, transferred out all 4,582 BTC, valued at $377 million.
Key levels: 82,500 below is an important support this week, 83,400 above is short-term resistance. The October 14 CPI expectation is 3.7% year-over-year, followed closely by the October 15 PPI data—this is the real watershed for direction.
Stay light and wait for the data, don’t bet on direction. Do you think the CPI is hot or cold? Chat in the comments👇#SeptemberCPIcomingsoon, Hamark says further rate hikes are still needed $BTC W has fallen from a high of 0.02971 to 0.01936, with consecutive bearish candles on the hourly chart, moving averages turning downward, MACD green bars still expanding, and RSI entering oversold territory but without a rebound signal. The order book shows a large accumulation of long liquidations below 0.01936; if the price breaks through 0.01890, it is likely to trigger a chain of forced liquidations, so do not go long at this level.
Just climbed six floors carrying a lunch box, the voice-controlled light didn’t turn on, and my phone vibrating in my pocket made my leg numb.
For short-term trades, waiting for a rebound to short is safer. Enter the market on a rebound to the 0.02040 to 0.02090 range, as long as the rise stalls; set a stop loss at 0.02220, first take profit at 0.01760, second take profit at 0.01580. If it directly breaks below 0.01890 with volume, do not bottom-fish; short again on a rebound to 0.01930, stop loss at 0.02030, target 0.01600.
$W
#PIMCO warns 10-year US Treasury yield may reach 6%
@OKX Planet A while ago, a colleague pulled me into a group chat
Every day someone was showing off their orders
After watching too much, I got itchy hands
Threw in a few hundred bucks to try
The first purchase was $BTC
After buying, it just slowly dropped
It dropped so much that I started picking cheaper options for takeout
Later, I tried $ETH
There are many things on the chain
The fees are also harsh
One operation wasted half a day
Then I heard $SOL is fast
Transferred a small amount to try
Fast is really fast
But the traps are real too
Some projects disappear just like that
Lost a few times before I learned my lesson
Don’t chase hot topics
Don’t follow order calls
Don’t touch what you don’t understand
Write down your private keys yourself
Don’t give them to anyone who asks
Don’t click on unknown links
No matter how tempting the airdrop is, don’t connect your wallet recklessly
Now I only hold money I won’t mind losing
Just leave it there
Don’t get cocky when it rises
Don’t panic when it falls
There are many opportunities in this field
But even more traps
Living long is more important than making a quick profit
Don’t borrow money
Don’t get carried away
Don’t believe in guaranteed profits
Leave the rest to time#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance to be revealed
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs flow out simultaneously, is institutional demand weakening?
#Microsoft releases new generation AI chip, stock price hits yearly high #aavev4 deposits on Arc surpass $300 million
[Old Leek Observation] $AAVE V4 deposits have surged past $300 million, the money is coming in, but the real test is yet to come
Aave V4's deposit scale on Arc once exceeded $300 million, which is a development worth noting. But I think more important than the deposit number is: what will be done with this money after it comes in?
In DeFi, a large deposit scale does not necessarily mean the protocol is profitable. Funds coming in only indicate that users are willing to put assets into this market; if borrowing demand does not keep up and capital utilization remains low, no matter how many deposits there are, it may not bring corresponding protocol revenue.
Conversely, if deposits grow while borrowing scale, capital utilization, and active users also continue to increase, that indicates the market is not just attracting funds but truly forming borrowing demand.
So this time I won’t rush to call it a positive for AAVE. Getting a wave of capital attention after the new network launch is the first step; whether this batch of funds can be retained and both deposits and borrowings grow together is what needs to be verified next.
For Aave V4, $300 million is a good starting point, but it’s not the final answer.
When you look at DeFi protocols, do you pay more attention to TVL (Total Value Locked), or borrowing scale and actual revenue?Tom Lee Warns: South Korean Stock Market Crash May Trigger Chain Reaction in Crypto Market, Short-Term Pain Inevitable
On October 13, Fundstrat co-founder and BitMine chairman Tom Lee issued a warning, pointing out that the sharp decline in the South Korean stock market is becoming a new risk factor for the crypto market.
Tom Lee believes that South Korean investors, as a significant holding group of cryptocurrencies, could transmit the severe volatility in their domestic securities market to the crypto space through capital flows.
Lee analyzed that the stock market drop in South Korea might trigger margin calls at brokerage firms. Some investors, to cover losses in their stock accounts and meet margin requirements, may be forced to sell crypto assets, thereby exerting selling pressure on coin prices.
He even bluntly stated that this cross-market liquidity shock could cause the crypto market to endure "pain" in the short term. Although his words were restrained, the implication was clear:
That is, the deleveraging effect in the South Korean stock market will not only impact stocks. Once margin call pressure spreads to crypto assets heavily held by South Korean retail investors, selling pressure will cross markets, making it difficult for the crypto market to remain unaffected in the short term.
This warning originated from a Bull Theory post stating that due to a 5% intraday plunge in the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), the Korea Exchange urgently suspended program trading for 5 minutes.
Notably, this is the first time in nearly two months that the South Korean stock market has triggered such a circuit breaker mechanism, indicating that panic sentiment in the capital market is spreading rapidly.
#韩国股市暴跌 #September CPI announcement imminent, Hamak says further rate hikes still needed
US stock market analysis: On the eve of earnings season, energy and shipping lead, chip stocks take a hit
On Monday, the US stock market played the "index battle" again, with the Dow up 0.38%, the Nasdaq down 0.44%, and the S&P basically flat. The most striking was the trading volume, only 12.6 billion shares, the lowest non-holiday level since 2003, as everyone awaits the bank earnings kickoff.
A macro black swan emerged: Changxin Memory announced a breakthrough in next-generation DRAM architecture, directly targeting high-margin AI server memory. Micron responded by falling below $1000, while SanDisk, SK Hynix, and Intel all declined, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 2.7%, hitting a three-week low.
Another focus is the Middle East. Houthi forces attacked a Saudi airport over the weekend, and oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz were successively attacked, pushing oil prices up over 2%. Funds immediately flowed into energy and shipping, with the XLE Energy ETF and BOAT Global Shipping ETF both hitting all-time highs. Gold and Bitcoin were pressured by a stronger dollar, with gold down 0.6% and Bitcoin retreating to around 83,000.
In summary: In the calm before earnings season, capital has already chosen sides. Chips are pressured by Chinese competition and technological iteration, while energy and shipping are pushed by geopolitical factors, making the divergence between the two sides increasingly obvious. Once earnings are released and volatility increases, the direction will become clearer.