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Anthropic just disclosed nearly $900 billion in compute commitments. Big Tech’s spending is already out of control.
When centralized cloud costs spiral this high, decentralized GPU networks become a necessity.
$RENDER $AKT $TAO are the ones positioned to capture the real AI infrastructure upside.
#AI #CryptoSanDisk's financial report is strong, yet the stock price continues to be under pressure. I think besides the company itself, we also need to look at the customers purchasing computing power and storage, and what kind of pressure they are facing.
AI infrastructure investment supports storage demand, which can be seen in SanDisk's performance. But recently, the market has also started to worry whether companies investing so heavily can keep up with future cash flow and how financing conditions will change.
Suppliers selling well in the current quarter and customers continuously expanding purchases over the next few years are two issues that need to be verified separately. Strong current demand does not guarantee the next round of budgets.
I haven't seen enough evidence to directly say that customers have cut SanDisk orders. However, how high investors are willing to value the company will indeed be influenced by confidence in future purchases. Financial reports reflect realized operations, while stock prices also anticipate upcoming uncertainties.
This is also what makes me conflicted: SanDisk delivered good results but still has to endure the pressure of the entire AI investment cycle being re-evaluated. The company has worked hard to deliver, yet the market is still asking what will happen next quarter and next year.
Going forward, I will look at both product demand and customer funding arrangements. Only if orders can be delivered and paid as planned, and subsequent purchases are willing to continue, will the credibility of growth continue to increase.
Strong financial reports deserve recognition, but judging sustainability requires looking deeper along the industry chain.
#闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13% Today Yushu surged 18%, and my long-short strategy also made a little profit. How did I operate? (Feeding tutorial)
Just like going long Tesla and short SpaceX, I am going long Yushu while simultaneously shorting Changxin Storage with an equal amount. The reasons are as follows:
- As analyzed before, Yushu and Changxin have similar circulating ratios, with no new circulating supply in the short term, but bearish sentiment is severe. Since listing, it has dropped 60%, with nowhere left to fall.
- Changxin is different; it has been consolidating at a high level for a long time, but it will unlock early next year. This is a strong support, and it is also dragged down by the AI market.
Therefore, going long Yushu and short Changxin feels more comfortable, and you can also add several times leverage, making capital utilization extremely efficient Gold at $3900, do you still dare to bottom-fish?
At the start of the year it was 5500, now 3900, down 30%. The Fed's December rate hike probability is 70%, the dollar is still pressing above 101, are your long positions still holding? Just now, gold rebounded from 3870 to 3915, RSI 34 near oversold—Is this a dead cat bounce or the real bottom?
First, look at the surface: oversold rebound, but all moving averages are pressing overhead.
The daily 20-day MA is at 4080, 50-day at 4250, 200-day at 4490—the price is below all moving averages, a clear bearish structure. From 5500 down to 3900, nearly a 30% drop, RSI 34 is indeed near oversold, but oversold does not equal reversal; oversold conditions in a downtrend can persist for a long time.
First thing: Today is the US midterm election, what you think is a safe haven might be a trap.
Many hear “election uncertainty” and immediately buy gold as a safe haven. The logic isn’t wrong, but you need to see clearly—the market fears not uncertainty, but the continuation of “strong dollar + high interest rates.”
If the election results reinforce fiscal tightening and a strong dollar narrative, gold will face even more pressure. Today it fell 0.8%-1.5%, hovering near the annual low of 3850-3870, the market has already voted with its feet.
What’s more painful: The Reserve Bank of Australia just raised rates to 4.85%, an 18-year high. Global tightening isn’t over; gold, a non-yielding asset, loses opportunity cost every day it’s held.
Second thing: The Fed is the real big player in gold, you can’t beat it.
Q3 GDP 3.4% beats expectations, ISM manufacturing 55.5, core PCE 3.1%—each data point is strong. The market prices in a 70-75% chance of a December rate hike.
The 10-year real yield is 2.9%, what does that mean? You put money in government bonds and earn 2.9% real return lying down; buy gold, zero interest, plus storage fees.
Which would you choose?
So don’t talk to me about “central bank gold buying” or “geopolitical safe haven” long-term logic—long-term logic won’t save your short-term positions. ETF inflows hit a record in Q3, but recently leveraged funds reducing positions are the main driver of price. Institutions buy, retail sells; this is structural turnover, not a bottom.
Third thing: Technicals tell you the rebound is to help you escape, not to add positions.
Rebound from 3870 to 3915 looks strong? Look closely at the resistance:
3920-3930: Intraday pivot, first wall
3960-3975: Today’s high + previous support turned resistance, second wall
4000: Psychological barrier, third wall
4080: 20-day MA, a moat
Four walls pressing overhead, you tell me this is a reversal? The 4-hour chart’s downtrend line is intact, bear flag pattern, the rebound is a selling opportunity.
Long-short showdown, you decide:
On one side:
RSI 34 near oversold, technical rebound demand
Central bank gold buying + geopolitical safe haven long-term logic still present
Midterm election uncertainty may provide short-term support
3850 is the annual low, strong psychological support
On the other side:
All moving averages in bearish alignment, 20/50/200-day all overhead
December rate hike probability 70-75%, real yield 2.9%
Dollar above 101, strong dollar pressure
This week’s Nonfarm + JOLTS + ADP, strong data will keep pushing down
Down 30% from 5500, no reversal signal
Key levels
Resistance above: 3920-3930 → 3960-3975 → 4000 → 4080
Support below: 3900 → 3885-3895 → 3870-3850 (annual low) → break 3850 targets 3800-3790
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Short lightly on rebounds at 3930-3960 resistance, stop loss above 3975-3985, targets 3900→3880→3850. Risk-reward at least 1:2. Don’t chase shorts, wait for rebound then short. If 3890-3900 holds with reversal candlestick, try light longs with stop loss below 3870, target 3930-3960—but this is a rebound grab, not bottom fishing, run when it reaches.
Swing traders:
Before this week’s Nonfarm and election results, avoid heavy positions. Range trade 3900-3970, strict stop loss, reverse on breakout. Strong data and rate hikes → target 3850-3800; weak data + geopolitical tensions → possibly test 4000-4080. Range mindset, no romance.
Long-term believers:
Central bank gold buying, geopolitical safe haven, inflation hedge—these logics remain. But what you need to wait for is a “rate peak signal,” not “price falling a lot.” 3850 is not the bottom, it’s the annual low; the real bottom awaits Fed pivot confirmation.
Gold now is like Nasdaq in 2022—
99% think “down 30% it should rebound,” but it fell from 16000 to 10000, then dropped another 40%. $BTC $ETH $XAU Apple's Q4 revenue and profit both exceeded expectations, but the market is really pricing in the "next quarter's gross margin guidance under pressure." The company gave a gross margin forecast of 45%-46% for the December quarter, a significant decline from this quarter's 47.9%, and also below analysts' consensus expectations.
The CFO clearly stated in the conference call that memory prices are at an "unprecedented" level, and previously low-priced inventory is being consumed, with cost pressures expected to continue for the next few quarters. At the same time, expenses related to the launch of Siri AI have also started to be accounted for. The service business growth guidance has slowed to 8%-9%, further weakening the contribution from the high-margin business.
From a trading perspective, the revenue beat has already been partially priced in; the real marginal change lies in whether the downward trend in profit margins will continue. iPhone and Mac remain the main growth drivers, but rising memory costs directly erode product gross margins; although services maintain high margins, the slowdown in growth means limited room for profit structure optimization. Greater China grew 21% year-over-year but fell short of expectations, leaving doubts in the market.
The post-market stock price decline indicates that investors are more focused on "cost pressures + profit margin risks under high valuation" rather than just the revenue figures. Going forward, key points to watch include memory price trends, easing of supply constraints, and whether Apple will offset the impact through product price increases or cost control. #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 During the evening European session, the market continued to dawdle in front of the key defense line, with bulls showing no sign of counterattack.
$BTC | 77030: After reaching a high of 78254, it was hammered back and is currently repeatedly testing the critical 77000 lifeline. The spot ETF saw a single-day outflow of $643 million, with BlackRock bearing the main selling pressure. The MA20 resistance above is obvious, and once the previous low of 76265 is broken, it could easily trigger a bull stampede.
$ETH | 2269: Weakness is evident, with six consecutive days of ETF net outflows and continuous capital bleeding. Both technical and capital pressures are mounting, approaching the previous low of 2174. Support below is at 2200; a break would open the downside space.
$DOGE | 0.0743: Capital is not buying in, showing a typical "fall with the market but not rise with it" pattern. Against the backdrop of declining overall market risk appetite, meme coins have no rebound momentum. Strong support is at 0.07217; breaking below would turn the positive outlook into a trapped position.
Summary: Macro positives fail to drive the market, ETFs continue to bleed, a typical slow decline pattern, avoid blindly catching falling knives.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Analysis of Reasons Why the Future of Digital Currency Would Face Extinction if Binance Collapses
Binance is not just an exchange; it is the largest global gateway for crypto asset deposits and withdrawals, a liquidity hub, and a pricing center. If Binance were to completely shut down, the impact would not be a short-term market drop but a chain collapse of the entire industry's infrastructure. Many believe this would accelerate the demise of digital currency, with the core logic as follows:
1. The world's largest liquidity pool disappears, causing the pricing system to collapse directly
The trading depth and price discovery of BTC, ETH, and the vast majority of altcoins heavily rely on Binance's order book.
1. Binance carries a significant proportion of the industry's spot and futures trading volume and is the core where global funds converge. Once it shuts down, massive orders and order book depth vanish instantly;
2. Other small and medium exchanges have limited capacity to take over, liquidity will sharply contract, spreads will widen drastically, slippage will be extremely high, and prices will lose a stable anchor, leading to erratic surges and crashes;
3. Without a unified pricing center, the same coin's price will be completely fragmented across different platforms, invalidating the "value benchmark" of assets.
When assets cannot even form a fair price, the foundation for speculation and allocation disappears.
2. The main fiat deposit and withdrawal channels break, making off-exchange capital inflow nearly impossible
For ordinary retail investors and institutions wanting to enter the crypto space, the most mainstream path is: Fiat → Binance → Various tokens.
- Other exchanges' compliant deposit and withdrawal channels and service scales are far inferior to Binance;
- After Binance collapses, the remaining deposit and withdrawal channels will face even stricter regulatory crackdowns;
- Over-the-counter peer-to-peer trading is fragmented, risky, and limited in volume, unable to support large-scale capital flows.
Without continuous fiat inflows, the industry becomes a zero-sum game with shrinking volume and marginalization over time.
3. Chain reaction of trust collapse triggers a run across the entire industry
Binance is the industry's confidence benchmark. If it collapses, the market will reach a consensus: even top exchanges can suddenly go to zero, run away, or become insolvent.
1. Users will panic withdraw from all exchanges, causing massive runs and consecutive failures of small and medium exchanges;
2. Institutional funds will abandon the crypto sector entirely, shelving all ETF and compliant allocation plans;
3. The public will completely lose confidence in the "custodial trading model," and new users will no longer dare to enter.
The collapse of FTX once triggered a wave of panic; Binance's scale is much larger, so the stampede effect will multiply.
4. Regulators will use this as the strongest justification for coordinated global crackdown
If Binance collapses, it will be treated as a typical case by regulators worldwide, proving that virtual currency exchanges are uncontrollable risks prone to hacking, money laundering, and scams.
1. The U.S. will accelerate the implementation of stricter bans and asset controls;
2. More countries will directly ban crypto trading and related services;
3. Stablecoins, cross-chain bridges, and on-chain service providers will face collateral scrutiny, with many supporting infrastructures shutting down.
The industry's survival space will be continuously compressed, with less and less legal ground to operate.
5. Project ecosystems, market makers, and funding service chains will collectively break
Public chains, Meme coins, staking platforms, and lending protocols all heavily depend on exchanges for market making, listing empowerment, and traffic introduction:
1. Many projects' main trading venue is Binance; once delisted, token liquidity dries up, leaving assets with value but no market;
2. Market makers and quantitative institutions rely on Binance's depth, API, and futures products to conduct business; with the hub gone, quantitative funds exit;
3. Incubation, IEOs, ecosystem incentives, and token exposure channels will drastically reduce, making it difficult for new projects to obtain funding and attention.
New projects will stall, old projects will slowly fade, and the industry will lose its self-sustaining regenerative capacity.I see this follows the narrative of institutional holding, which can boost sentiment but cannot be taken as confirmation of a price increase.
The Tether CEO stated that the company holds 150,000 bitcoins worth $11.5 billion but did not specify where the additional holdings are stored.
I follow three rules for trend tracking: watch volume and price—holdings do not equal new buying; watch persistence—statements do not equal continuous accumulation; watch verification—storage information is still missing a piece. The trend is the best friend; I am still waiting for market confirmation—when encountering this kind of news, do you use trading volume or moving averages to judge the trend?💥 Total liquidation across the network reached 383 million!
ETH shorts got wiped out, BTC longs are going through a trial.
📊 Key signals
ETH (Short Squeeze): 464,000 short positions liquidated in 1 hour, 6 times more than longs! A violent short-term surge, clear main force short squeeze, strong momentum but beware of a pullback.
BTC (Bull Trap): Mid-to-long term long liquidations far exceed shorts, selling on rebounds, chasing longs keep losing heads.
Binance saw a single 8.78 million BTC long position instantly wiped out, big players fighting the trend got taught a lesson
ETH: Don't hold onto stop-loss on shorts; go light on longs, fuel can run out and cause sudden drops.
BTC: Don't catch the bottom, rebounds are selling opportunities, don't enter without volume breakout.
⚠️ In short
ETH kills shorts, BTC kills longs. Believe the wrong side and you die, controlling your hands and watching the show is the way! 😂$BTC $ETH $HYPE On-chain, I found an absurdly huge whale account holding a $120 million HYPE long position that refuses to budge.
With 5x leverage, the base position was built at $38, and now the unrealized profit has doubled, yet they haven't reduced it at all. The liquidation price is at 73. The market has been wildly swinging up and down these past two days, and despite over a hundred million in profits riding the roller coaster, they stubbornly haven't hit the close position button.
Holding over a hundred million in unrealized gains and resisting volatility purely to wait for the next major bull run. When a big player locks their chips this tightly, think about how much capital is waiting to catch the dip below 80.
#HYPE
$HYPE
👇Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive spread for $BTC corresponds to a very small scale. The buy near sell far quote spread is +0.64%, with the first-level pairing scale about $8; based on a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 0.08%. Under small volume, the impact will quickly eat up the spread.
The first-level positive spread for $ETH corresponds to a very small scale. The buy near sell far quote spread is +0.07%, with the first-level pairing scale about $199; based on a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 2%. The curve has a shape, but the pool is too small.
For $SOL, the marked spread is positive, but the buy near sell far first-level quote is inverted. Near-month annualized +1.66%, far-month annualized +0.61%; marked near-far difference +0.13%, buy near sell far first-level quote spread -1.15%. The mark and executable direction are opposite, so you cannot trade based on the mark.Oil prices have been like a roller coaster these past two days. On Monday, Brent crude $BZ fell 7.6% to close at $104.77, WTI dropped 7.3% to $96.46, marking the largest single-day decline since July 27. The cause was the Iranian president saying the Supreme Leader gave the government "certain authorization" to negotiate and resolve issues. After the close, when Trump was asked if he would still fight after the election, he said "no" twice, adding that oil prices would fall even more; but on the same day, he told Fox that they might have to bomb the underground nuclear facility at "Gahout Mountain," saying "it could be done in an hour."
That night, the US military struck Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. US officials told CBS it was a limited strike because the Revolutionary Guard fired at US military aircraft; the Wall Street Journal said such strikes have been ongoing for weeks but kept quiet. On Tuesday, Brent crude rose 1.75% to $106.6, recovering less than $2 of the more than $8 lost on Monday. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said negotiations through intermediaries are "very intense," and they are prepared for war.
The pain is inflation. Since the start of the conflict, global oil prices have risen about 45%. The US diesel average price on Monday was $6.29 per gallon, up 77% since the start of the year. Last week, two Federal Reserve officials said interest rates need to rise.
The market has already priced in that these small-scale clashes will continue. The $104.77 price bets on no major war after the election; if Iran gets even one condition eased—lifting the blockade or oil sanctions—Brent crude could drop below $100, and the Fed hawks would have one less reason. If Gahout Mountain really gets bombed, the more than $7 drop on Monday would be given back in a day. $CL $QQQ #伊朗授权政府谈判，霍尔木兹重开能否提速？ The US attribution is based on the FBI and on-chain security agencies' tracing conclusions, which do not equate to court-confirmed evidence; North Korea's official stance has explicitly denied this, considering it a deliberate smear and political framing by the US.
1. Surface Reason: High match between attack fingerprints and historical crime records
The US has long tracked the Lazarus Group (Lazarus / TraderTraitor, APT38), a gang that has repeatedly attacked exchanges to steal coins (major cases including Bybit), with a fixed modus operandi: social engineering infiltration of exchange operations, hot wallet theft, using DeFi and mixing protocols to launder Ethereum-based assets in batches. The on-chain fund flow patterns and laundering paths highly overlap with this Binance theft, and security agencies use the "method fingerprint" as the basis for attribution.
In the US official narrative framework: this group is characterized as North Korean state-sponsored hackers, with stolen coins used to circumvent sanctions, obtain foreign exchange, and support weapons projects—a fixed narrative template repeatedly promoted by the US.
2. Core Political Objective: Incorporate this digital finance incident into the North Korea sanctions system
1. Obtain new grounds for sanctions
Once defined as North Korean state hacker activity, the US Treasury can naturally expand the sanctions list: tagging related mixing addresses, DeFi protocols, money laundering service providers, blocking illicit fund flow channels, and strengthening the global on-chain blacklist system. As long as the "North Korea association" label is applied, the US has grounds to require global exchanges and wallet projects to freeze and intercept related assets, advancing its on-chain regulatory rules.
2. Shape public opinion: crypto theft = North Korea obtaining nuclear weapons funding
This narrative easily convinces Western allies: large-scale crypto theft is not just for profit but a channel for sanctions evasion and weapons financing. It facilitates the US in promoting multinational coordination and tightening anti-money laundering rules across the virtual asset industry.
3. Industry Governance Level: Seize discourse power over cryptocurrencies
This is a very critical point, coinciding with your earlier mention of the digital currency war logic:
Binance is the world's largest crypto on/off-ramp hub, and this theft has already triggered global panic over exchange security.
The US directing blame to North Korea has several benefits:
✅ Divert market focus: weaken external doubts about Binance's risk control flaws and US regulatory absence, shifting public attention from "centralized exchange architecture is inherently insecure" to "hostile nation cyberattacks";
✅ Establish the US role: the US is the "guardian" responsible for attribution, tracking stolen funds, and combating transnational digital financial crime, using this opportunity to strengthen US law enforcement leadership in the crypto world;
✅ Patch the ETF and compliant crypto asset narrative: tell institutional funds that the risk source is foreign hostile forces, not the US's compliant custody system itself.
4. Why many suspect this is "scapegoating"
1. On-chain fingerprint matching is probabilistic evidence; hackers can completely imitate Lazarus's old methods to forge traces and frame opponents, a common anti-attribution tactic in cyber offense and defense;
2. Pattern routinization: whenever a large crypto theft occurs, the US's first reaction is to point to North Korea, forming a fixed paradigm. North Korea has repeatedly criticized the US for "not asking for evidence and habitually framing";
3. The incident itself involves complex interests: the stolen amount is huge, involving Binance compensation, asset recovery, and regulatory games among countries, with multiple parties competing.
5. Echoing your previous logic (digital currency war perspective)
Regardless of whether this attribution is factual, the characterization itself is part of the currency war:
The US uses this sensational theft case to define the enemy, define risks, and define rules, incorporating crypto assets into the financial battlefield of great power confrontation.
What the market sees is not just hackers stealing coins, but: whoever controls attribution authority can set rules for on-chain blacklists, fund freezes, and asset recovery, thus controlling the initiative in digital finance.$AAPL
The quick news about Apple is just one sentence: down 3% pre-market, no reason given afterward. Checked three sources, all the same.
The token side is even more volatile than the stock. Between 5 PM and 6 PM, it plunged from 328.74 to 322.01, with 15,300 contracts traded. Usually, it's one to two thousand contracts per hour, so this is an elevenfold increase. At 6 PM, it climbed back to 326.48, down 5.16% in 24 hours, with the lowest point being that sharp dip.
What's strange is the fee rate and open interest. The fee rate is still positive, +0.0195%, meaning longs are paying; contract open interest is only 10.38 million. The pool is so thin that a single order can move the price by two points, and a single order can also pull it back. The ones pushing the price down aren't leveraged positions but pre-market liquidity.
The real pricing only counts after the stock opens. The token has just played out the sentiment in advance for half a day, maybe overplayed it but still got it right. Let's see tonight.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ 11.3 Gold Evening Outlook
Spot gold is currently trading around 3900. Tonight marks the U.S. midterm elections, which will serve as an important short-term catalyst for gold prices.
From the market perspective, after a sustained decline earlier, the price has already priced in part of the rate hike expectations. The downward momentum is gradually weakening, and there is a technical need for a correction.
The biggest focus of this election is that if a divided Congress is formed, it could easily lead to a policy deadlock. Subsequent battles over the debt ceiling and fiscal budget will increase, raising macroeconomic uncertainty and benefiting gold's safe-haven pricing.
Once the market starts pricing in the risk of policy tug-of-war, long-term U.S. Treasury yields have room to fall, and the dollar will come under pressure, providing upward support for gold prices.
Even if the final outcome aligns with market expectations, the "bad news is priced in" scenario can easily trigger capital replenishment; combined with the long-term concerns over the high U.S. debt, gold's value as a hard currency allocation will regain investor attention.
Reference:
Long positions around 3890-3900, targeting 3925, 3950, 3980 $XAU $BTC
Tether holds 150,000 BTC, which is worth $11.5 billion at the current price of 77,000. Since September 30, it has added another 50,000 BTC.
At the same time, the total market cap of stablecoins has dropped to its lowest in over a year, down 17 billion in six months.
These two facts together are quite contradictory. Stablecoins are the bullets in the market, and the bullets are shrinking; USDT itself is using its profits to buy up coins, locking in the supply before retail investors enter.
The market isn't giving any favors. It fell another 1.25% in 24 hours, hitting 76,360 at 2 PM, then pulled back to 77,044 at 5 PM with a volume of 2,832 coins, 40% more than the previous bar. But it can't hold above 77,000; it touched 77,126 at noon and then retreated. Open interest is 2.627 billion, and the fee rate remains at 0.01%.
My view: There are real buyers at 76,360 below and real sellers at 77,000 above. Tether can support the bottom by buying coins, but it can't change the trend. Wait for the fee rate to turn negative or for open interest to drop before talking about a rebound.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #Binance Hacker Tracking EP02｜Continuous Updates
About 7,500 BTC from 165Eurv was transferred out in one transaction today: at 13:56, 7,499.99999322 BTC was sent to bc1qhp7n, balance cleared to zero, ownership of the two addresses is pending verification.
SOL side: from 13:12 to 14:48 AffzF made 12 main transfers totaling 37,609.33 SOL, the largest single transfer was 14,585.57 SOL to CveMg1.
Balance at 15:01 was 339,469.74 SOL, followed by 14 transfers out totaling 36,657.22 SOL, at 18:35 the balance was 302,573.21 SOL, none of the recipient addresses have exchange or cross-chain bridge tags.
Transit addresses: 7SDuV made 6 transfers out totaling 3,052.33 SOL, basically emptied; DdwZZ transferred out 2,568.97 SOL, cleared to zero; 4BcRU received 1,406.29 SOL, currently holding 407.14 SOL.On Tuesday evening, Bitcoin sank back below 77,000. U.S. chip stocks have dropped 12% over three days, the Nasdaq 100 has pulled back 10% from its high, and with the midterm elections voting today and results coming out tomorrow morning, the crypto market is holding its breath along with the Nasdaq. The three major cryptocurrencies are all in the red, and when the ETF accounts are laid out, it's clear who will crack first.
$BTC is around 76,940, hugging the 100-day moving average
Down 1.4% in 24 hours. On Monday, BlackRock's IBIT saw an outflow of $405 million, the largest since June 26, and the spot ETF had a net outflow of $399 million for the whole day. The intraday low was 76,400, the lowest since August, with the 100-day moving average around 76,463.
$ETH is around 2,265, bleeding for six consecutive days 🩸
Down 1.1% in 24 hours, the smallest drop among the three. However, the spot ETF had a net outflow of $140 million on Monday, marking six consecutive days of outflows, with BlackRock's ETHA alone withdrawing $138 million.
$SOL is around 92.2, with no inflows or outflows
Down 2.2% in 24 hours, the weakest among the three. Seven SOL spot ETFs saw no movement on Monday, with a total outflow of $63.4 million over the previous five trading days.
Bitcoin is the most uncomfortable, with the 100-day moving average right underfoot. If it tests 76,400 again, there’s little to stop it before 75,000. Ethereum’s smaller drop is deceptive; all the money over six days has exited through ETHA, and as long as BlackRock keeps selling, there’s no bottom in sight. SOL’s ETFs are stagnant at zero, with buying pressure gone first. If the election results tomorrow morning cause another hit to the Nasdaq, SOL will be the first among the three to break down. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The 12 major cases total $9.74 billion, with Binance alone accounting for 65%.
BlockBeats compiled 12 major cases related or suspected to be related to North Korea from 2022 to 2026 based on TRM and FBI data.
Binance ranks first with about $6.3 billion, Bybit second with $1.5 billion, and the remaining ten cases total $3.44 billion.
The US government directly named TraderTraitor only in three cases: Binance, Bybit, and DMM. Of the remaining nine cases, eight are attributed to the Lazarus group. The Bitget case has not yet been officially confirmed.
The 65% figure should be understood in context: it is based on these 12 major cases, not the total amount stolen by North Korea, nor the losses of South Korean users.
#Crypto #SecurityIBIT dumped $405 million in one day, while FBTC is still making small buys!
US stock market on November 2 (Farside): BTC spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $399 million, almost all from IBIT alone (about -$405 million), while FBTC actually had a net inflow of about $6.7 million. Adding the approximately -$643 million on October 30, about $1.04 billion was withdrawn over two trading days, wiping out the roughly $441 million inflow accumulated in the previous four days. ETH spot ETFs have also had outflows for six consecutive days, with about $140 million more withdrawn on November 2. Are institutions withdrawing or repositioning? Spot BTC is about $76,897 (Beijing 18:42, Coinbase). Image source: Farside.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC BTC has dropped sharply in the past three midterm elections! Will it happen again in 2026?
Historical data is indeed worth caution. After the 2014, 2018, and 2022 US midterm elections, BTC formed stage lows approximately 71 days, 38 days, and 13 days later, with maximum drawdowns of about 48%, 50%, and 16% respectively. The time to bottom shortened each cycle, but this is just a historical coincidence over three cycles and does not prove that the election caused the decline.
This year's political expectations are also worth attention. Pre-election prediction markets showed that the implied probability of the Democrats winning the House once reached about 94%, and the Senate about 74%. Note, this represents traders' pricing of the outcome, not polls or final results.
More importantly, this cycle's BTC stage low already appeared on July 1, about 125 days before the November 3 election, indicating a deviation from historical timing.
My view is that history can provide risk warnings but cannot directly serve as a trading signal. Going forward, focus should be on post-election USD liquidity, ETF fund flows, and BTC price structure. Don't short early just because of past declines, nor blindly chase longs due to optimistic market expectations. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ After losing 5.88 million, he reversed and opened a 43 million position an hour later. When writing down this number, I was wondering how much is actually left in this person's account.
The three losses were 4.4 million in $BTC, 1.13 million in $HYPE, and 600,000 in $ZEC. Note HYPE — just lost 1.13 million on this coin, and it appeared again in the newly opened long position.
The liquidation price is only 5% to 6% away from the current price. This gap doesn't require a black swan event; a single ordinary bearish candle is enough.
Either he really sees something we don't, or he just refuses to admit this loss. On-chain only records positions, not reasons.Someone just lost 5.88 million USD, and an hour later opened a 43 million USD long position. Same hour, same address—this is the most intriguing on-chain data I've seen today.
Let's break down the losses first. This address closed three positions, totaling a loss of 5.88 million: $BTC lost 4.4 million, $HYPE lost 1.13 million, and $ZEC lost 600,000. BTC alone accounts for about 75% of the total loss.
Now look at the actions within that hour: they reversed and opened 43 million USD worth of $ETH and $HYPE long positions. The key to watch is HYPE—just lost 1.13 million on this coin, yet it’s back in the new position. Losing and immediately buying back the same asset is the hardest to explain.
What really determines the risk isn’t the 43 million, but the liquidation price: only 5% to 6% away from the current price. A decent bearish candle moving against the position will trigger liquidation; a 5% buffer in this market is effectively nothing.
Putting these three points together, the structure is clear: they’re not waiting for a better entry, they’re betting on a direction, doubling down with money lost. Averaging down and refusing to admit defeat are completely different motives, but on-chain they look the same.
On-chain data shows what they hold, how much leverage they use, and how close they are to liquidation—but it can’t reveal why they made this call. The only certainty is someone has placed 43 million USD just 5% away from the cliff.24小时清算数据刚落地：全网9799万美元清算额里，$BTC独占24.9%，而真正刺眼的是$SOL——2577万美元清算中2326万来自多头，空头仅250万，近九成爆仓单压在买方。这不是普跌，是一场针对追涨盘的精准清扫。 先看结构。$BTC清算6691万多头对3108万空头，买盘爆仓量是卖盘两倍有余，说明前几日顺势加仓的多头在回调中被整批抹去。$ETH同样偏多，3879万多头对2998万空头，差距清晰但烈度低于$BTC，趋势买盘承压却未到极端。三者合计勾勒出同一条线索：杠杆多头是这轮出清的主要燃料。 为什么$SOL最值得盯？它的多空清算比接近9比1，远超$BTC和$ETH。这种集中度意味着短期投机资金高度同向，一旦价格反向，止损与强平会连锁触发。换句话说，$SOL的筹码结构比另外两个主流币更脆，反弹时的抛压释放也更集中。市场往往只看到清算总额，却忽略清算的“方向偏斜”——偏斜越极端，说明拥挤交易被拆得越彻底。 由此引出一个容易被低估的判断：清算潮退去不等于趋势反转，它更常见的产物是震荡拉锯。卖压确实被部分消化，盘面会轻一些，但真正的底部信号不在“爆仓数字大”，而在“爆仓数字持续收窄、多Apple's earnings exceeded expectations, but the stock price fell more than 4% in after-hours trading! $AAPL
The first earnings report delivered by new CEO Thunus showed 12% revenue growth, 17% iPhone growth, and 21% growth in Greater China.
But what the market really worries about is not that Apple can't sell, but that profits are being eaten up by costs.
Memory prices continue to rise, and Siri AI adds cloud costs. The gross margin guidance for the December quarter is only 45%–46%, below market expectations.
What’s more noteworthy: Apple has already adjusted prices on some products, but management expects memory costs to keep rising.
So the question arises:
Will Apple continue to raise prices, or turn AI into a new revenue stream?
Hardware price hikes test consumers, AI charges test user stickiness.
In the AI era, whether Apple can maintain its profit margin is more important than mere revenue growth.Apple $xAAPL could drop nearly 5 points in pre-market trading, which basically becomes a huge source of instability for the overall market. If semiconductors remain weak today, that would be another massive shock.
Previously, among the tech giants' earnings reports, only Tesla performed relatively well. Apple missed several expectations, and its buyback was also weak, so the sell-off was quite severe.
Apple has always been a support stock, so the market is now watching to see if Apple will plunge sharply after the open and then rebound significantly. If a rebound occurs, it would definitely be unfavorable for tech, proving that even if Apple's earnings fall short of expectations, funds are still seeking safety and remain concerned about AI risks. #苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 The CSRC's optimization of the "supportive buyback" rules this time (mainly focused on buybacks necessary to maintain company value and shareholder rights) is a strong "policy floor" signal released by regulators during the current market downturn, aiming to encourage listed companies to put real money into the market to support prices through regulatory relaxation.
These three core adjustments (adding the "break-issue price" scenario, removing the 6-month listing restriction, and removing the auction session restriction) impact the A-share market from the following dimensions:
1. Adding the "break-issue price" scenario: precise rescue, supporting overvalued and newly listed stocks
· Rule change: Previously, supportive buybacks usually required the stock price to fall below net asset value (break net) or continuous sharp declines. Now, "break-issue price" (stock price falling below the IPO issue price) is included as an allowable buyback scenario.
· Impact: This is a targeted benefit for newly listed stocks and the STAR Market/ChiNext. In recent years, due to tightening market liquidity, many high-priced tech stocks and new stocks have severely broken issue price, damaging market confidence. Allowing them to buy back shares gives these companies a self-rescue tool, effectively alleviating selling pressure on broken-issue-price stocks and repairing valuation expectations for the tech growth sector.
2. Removing the 6-month listing restriction: speeding up self-rescue for newly listed stocks
· Rule change: Previously, companies had to be listed for 6 months before conducting supportive buybacks; now they can do so immediately upon listing.
· Impact: This greatly shortens the "shock period" when new stocks face extreme declines. This means if a new stock encounters irrational dumping early after listing, management can immediately stabilize the market through buybacks. This directly benefits short-term sentiment in the newly listed stock sector and effectively counters malicious short-selling forces in the early listing phase.
3. Removing the auction session restriction: direct intervention in the closing session, strengthening the support effect
· Rule change: Previously, buybacks were restricted during the opening and closing auction sessions; now these restrictions are fully lifted.
· Impact: The A-share market is known for "deciding the outcome at the close." Allowing buybacks during auction sessions means companies can concentrate purchases in the last 3 minutes of trading (14:57-15:00), directly lifting the closing price. This not only creates visually appealing K-line charts (avoiding breakdowns) but also greatly suppresses intraday short-sellers’ momentum, allowing supportive funds to influence market sentiment with maximum efficiency.
---
📊 Overall impact analysis on A-shares
① Sentiment: clear "policy floor" and "support" expectations
Against the backdrop of continuous adjustments and shrinking trading volumes in A-shares (especially ChiNext and STAR Market), this move continues the CSRC’s "activate capital markets" strategy. It signals to the entire market that regulators are closely monitoring declines and are ready to deploy tools to provide liquidity support at any time.
② Capital: introduction of incremental funds, improving micro liquidity
Share buybacks by listed companies are currently one of the most certain sources of incremental funds in the A-share market. With relaxed rules, more companies (especially cash-rich central state-owned enterprises and quality tech leaders) are expected to join the buyback ranks. The entry of real funds can effectively offset selling pressure caused by foreign capital outflows and mutual fund redemptions.
③ Trading game layer: beware of "empty talk buybacks" and "fake buybacks"
· "Hype buyback" risk: With relaxed conditions, some companies might opportunistically announce buyback plans to boost stock prices but execute minimally or not at all (e.g., only buying the minimum few million shares or delaying purchases).
· Short-term impulse vs. long-term value game: Buybacks usually trigger short-term impulses (next-day gap up), but only large-scale cancellation buybacks represent substantial long-term benefits.
💎 Summary and trading strategy
This is not a "full bull market" signal but a "defensive counterattack" signal.
· Market level: In the short term (such as the next one or two weeks), this policy clearly supports the index floor, especially stabilizing the continuously falling ChiNext and STAR Market indices, reducing the risk of systemic market crashes.
· Stock selection strategy: Funds will likely focus next on "newly listed + break-issue price + high cash flow" targets. You can prioritize screening tech companies that have been listed less than six months, have fallen below their issue price, have abundant cash on hand (cash > 20% of market cap), and have recently announced supportive buybacks.
Reminder: A policy floor does not equal a market bottom. If macro liquidity (such as US Treasury yields) continues to suppress or domestic economic data disappoints, buybacks can only temporarily relieve individual stock distress and cannot reverse the macro trend of the broader market. Long positions on rebounds still require strict position and stop-loss control.Migo first clarifies the timeline: The US October nonfarm payrolls won't be released tonight; it's actually scheduled for 9:30 PM Beijing time on November 6. What we're discussing now is actually the cold data from September plus expectations for October, so don't be misled by the headline.
The September data was indeed weak: only 29,000 new jobs added, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, average hourly earnings increased by just 0.1% month-over-month and about 3.0% year-over-year, and companies are clearly slowing down hiring. The market's expectation for October is roughly 55,000 to 60,000 new jobs, with unemployment holding around 4.2%, which is not strong—just a stabilization.
But Migo's judgment is straightforward: a cooling job market doesn't mean rate cuts are on the table. The Fed held steady in October, keeping rates at 3.75% to 4.00%, with a 10-2 vote; the two dissenters wanted to raise rates directly since inflation is still far from the 2% target. Currently, the market is pricing in over an 80% chance of a rate hike in December. The debate is about whether to hike or not, not about cutting.
For trading, Migo gives three tips: First, don't heavily bet on direction before 9:30 PM on November 6; expect volatility once the data is out. Second, focus on the three key indicators: new jobs, unemployment rate, and hourly earnings. Only if new jobs are near zero and unemployment spikes above 4.4% can it be considered truly cold data. Third, BTC is still hovering above $77,000; don't panic sell on bad data—keep positions light and use stop losses. What do you guys think? For the November 6 nonfarm report, should Migo focus first on new jobs, or on unemployment and hourly earnings? Let's discuss in the comments. #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 #伊朗授权政府谈判，霍尔木兹重开能否提速？
The boss has something to say
There is new progress in the Middle East situation. The Iranian president stated that the Supreme Leader has authorized advancing peace talks, and Qatar proposed a three-day confidence-building plan. Trump also expressed that Iran hopes to reach an agreement and is not in a hurry to decide whether to resume military strikes.
But I think it's not that simple. Both sides have yet to achieve substantial breakthroughs; the previous "two-day reopening plan" is still stuck on lifting the blockade and sanctions.
Looking at the market is clear: oil prices have not dropped at all. Today, CL rose 1.10%, BZ rose 1.08%. Comments are insightful; negotiations are prone to reversals, and shipping recovery is slower than the market's one-time pricing. Moreover, the Strait's navigation has not yet returned to normal; crude oil supply is limited and shipping costs are high, which is the hard logic supporting oil prices.
So don't be fooled by negotiation signals. As long as the Strait is not fully navigable, oil prices won't come down. Inflation expectations won't cool down, the Fed's room for rate cuts is locked, and the ceiling for risk assets remains.
BTC is now fluctuating between 77,000 and 80,000, with funds waiting for data. Let's see if it can stand back above 80,000. If it can't hold, expect deeper corrections, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Don't chase the rise or kill the fall; set stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 最脆的一环从来不是价格，是那个被强平线追着跑的人。 25倍杠杆的账单，你猜市场先同情还是先收割？ 昨晚看到一位老哥的ETH多单被抬走，心里咯噔了一下。2725枚ETH，约615万美元，25倍全仓，开在2263，爆在2227。数字摆出来像一串冷冰冰的坐标，但背后是一个人盯着屏幕看着清算价一步步逼近的窒息感。更微妙的是，他倒下之后CORE那边有人坚持反向做，这种"你爆你的我赚我的"画面，其实比K线更能说明当下市场的结构。 我想说的重点不是谁亏谁赚，而是这件事透露的定价逻辑。2263到2227只有36美元的空间，25倍杠杆意味着价格波动1.4%左右就能决定生死。这种仓位密度说明什么？说明不少人是在用极窄的容错去博一个方向，而不是在交易趋势。当市场里挤满这种"差一点就活下来"的仓位，价格往往不需要真跌，只要轻轻一戳，连锁清算就会自己完成剩下的工作。 偏多的路径也在这里：如果ETH能稳住2250上方并快速收回2300，这批被清掉的杠杆反而成了燃料，空头回补叠加踏空资金，反弹会比预期急。山寨端会更明显，风险偏好一旦回暖，CORE这类逆势叙事的标的容易被短线资金拿来当情绪出口。 但风险同样清楚。25The real transmission of the midterm elections: not "bullish or bearish," but a "legislative window"
The market tends to simplify the midterm elections as "which party winning is better for BTC," but the real impact path is more indirect.
The dominant force in short-term pricing remains macro liquidity and ETF funds. Bitcoin's sensitivity to congressional control is lower than that of assets like DeFi and stablecoins, which rely more on legislative clarity. The midterm elections change the composition of the next Congress, thereby affecting the political arithmetic of market structure legislation such as the CLARITY Act when it restarts in 2027, rather than directly determining short-term capital flows.
Historical patterns provide a reference that needs to be discounted: in the 12 months following the last three midterm elections (2014, 2018, 2022), Bitcoin rose approximately +25%, +45%, and +92%, respectively, but in the weeks immediately after each vote, it first fell for a period. DWF Labs also points out that 2026 is a cycle exception—the price is closer to the peak, possibly bottomed in June, so the applicability of historical patterns needs to be adjusted downward.
The market state before the election precisely confirms the "no one dares to bet": the sideways movement is not due to a balance of bulls and bears, but because no one is willing to bet the day before the election. If a direction is to be chosen, it will most likely be after November 4. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 Bitcoin enters a US data double-header with its downtrend intact, and the calendar itself is becoming the trade. A minor nonfarm payrolls reading lands Wednesday, with the main report following Friday. That sequencing matters: two labor prints in one week give macro traders two separate chances to reprice December rate expectations, and crypto's most liquid pairs sit directly in the firing line. $BTC remains in a downtrend, with the 72,000-74,000 zone still the downside reference. The debate amoIntel Earnings Report: Q3 revenue approximately $16.5 billion, strong growth in data center/AI business, actual performance better than some expectations. However, Q4 guidance is only $15–16 billion, adjusted EPS about $0.25, and the company expects no positive free cash flow this year.
Stock Price Reaction: On October 30, the stock dropped nearly 29% in a single day, and on November 2, it fell about 9% again to around $60. From the high at the end of September, market capitalization has roughly halved. Previously, due to optimistic demand for AI server CPUs, the stock price had risen sharply within the year.
Sector Spread: Since October 6, chip and storage stocks have collectively lost about $3.7 trillion in market value. Micron, AMD, Marvell, and storage-related stocks have fallen more; Nvidia has been relatively resilient, but the overall sector remains under pressure. On that day, most stocks in the US market rose, but chips almost all declined.
In the short term, this is a sell-off driven by "expectation gap," not a comprehensive deterioration of fundamentals.
Intel's core contradiction is: strong AI data center demand, but weak traditional PC business, coupled with supply disruptions such as the Israel factory incident and high capital expenditures. The market had priced in the "AI-driven CPU recovery" story too fully, and a weak guidance triggered a sharp correction. This is similar to the "sell news" reaction of some AI-related stocks in 2024–2025.
At the sector level, this is a partial correction after a period of frenzied gains. Chip stock valuations are already very high, combined with concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures, interest rate environment, and memory supply-demand imbalance, funds are choosing to take profits.
$INTC ETH remains volatile: election results unclear, Iran situation adds fuel to the fire
Currently, ETH faces not just a single negative factor but simultaneous political and geopolitical risks. The U.S. midterm elections are underway, with the House needing 218 seats and the Senate 51 seats to form a majority; the final control may not be decided on election day. Market expectations for policy direction therefore have room for repeated adjustments.
The Middle East situation also cannot be ignored. According to the Associated Press, the U.S. has warned regional allies to prepare for possible military actions against Iran after the election and potential Iranian retaliation; the UK's Financial Times recently reported that Israel is pushing the U.S. to resume strikes on Iran, but Trump has not made a final decision, and diplomatic negotiations are ongoing.
These two types of risks may transmit to the crypto market through the dollar, oil prices, inflation expectations, and global risk appetite. My approach is: avoid chasing price moves based on news pulses, reduce leverage, and wait for ETH to break out or fall below key ranges before judging direction. The more intense the news flow, the more trading discipline must lead over emotion. $ETH #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $ETH outperformed $BTC by 0.41 percentage points in the last 24 hours.
My first reaction wasn’t excitement, but to confirm: is this a market rebound, or are a few contracts stealing the spotlight?
① As of now, among the top 5 by 24h trading volume, $ETH rose -0.80%, at 2270; $BTC -1.21%. The volume threshold limits the observation scope, so don’t treat this list as a thermometer for the entire market.
② The leading gainers are $BTC -1.21%, $HYPE -1.68%, $SOL -1.81%. $ETH’s strength didn’t synchronize with these assets, appearing more like a local standout rather than a broad rally.
③ $ZEC -7.39%, differing from $ETH by 6.59 percentage points. Such a large gap at both ends of the observation window means focusing only on the top can overlook volatility at the bottom.
My judgment: this is useful for identifying divergence but not enough to confirm an overall rebound. The list provides trading volume but not changes in liquidity, so the quality of the rise is still unclear.
When looking at these gain/loss lists, do you focus most on the percentage change, relative strength to BTC, or changes in trading volume? Let’s discuss in the comments #币圈The most challenging aspect for ETH recently is not the lack of direction, but the multitude of variables influencing that direction. The U.S. midterm elections are underway, and control of Congress could change the fiscal battles, regulatory agenda, and policy advancement pace for the next two years. Reuters pointed out that the House race is drawing attention, while the Senate competition remains highly uncertain; even if control of Congress changes, the president still retains executive power and veto rights, so policies will not immediately or completely shift. On another front, the situation in the Middle East is equally significant. Iran's Supreme Leader recently stated that if attacked, Iran's response would not be limited to a specific geographic area; the U.S. has also warned regional allies to prepare for possible military actions and Iranian retaliation after the elections. On November 3, Brent crude oil rose 1.7% to $106.58 per barrel, with geopolitical risks already starting to impact the energy market. These two risk lines affect ETH differently: elections mainly influence policy expectations and institutional participation confidence, while geopolitical conflicts may affect capital allocation through oil prices, inflation expectations, and global risk appetite. If energy prices continue to rise, concerns about maintaining high interest rates may also resurface, and as a risk asset, ETH can hardly remain completely unaffected. Therefore, I believe the most important thing now is not to guess whether the next piece of news will make ETH rise or fall, but to observe whether the price can hold steady after the news impact, whether trading volume supports it, and whether capital flows back in. When macro variables are dense, chasing gains or cutting losses can easily come at a cost. Control leverage, reduce positions, wait for uncertainties to gradually be digested, then look for opportunities US Midterm Elections Impact Crypto Market: BTC Watches Macros, ETH Focuses More on Regulation?
Today, the US midterm elections are officially underway. Changes in congressional control may affect the legislative pace for the crypto industry over the next two years. However, this does not mean the election results will directly determine BTC and ETH price movements next year.
The crypto industry has already invested about $176 million in this cycle, covering over 100 congressional races. Such large-scale political investment aims not only for short-term policy support but also to build long-term, bipartisan legislative alliances.
ETH deserves special attention. The market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, involves the regulatory boundaries of digital assets and the division of responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, directly impacting compliance expectations for trading platforms, staking, and on-chain financial services. But whether ETH is classified as a security cannot be decided solely by one bill or election outcome. The bill previously failed to advance in a Senate procedural vote by 49 to 50 and will require further bipartisan negotiation.
My judgment is: elections influence policy expectations, but the real change in industry valuation comes from legislation implementation and institutional capital flows. In the short term, it is unwise to bet on a single election result; control your positions and wait for policy signals and market capital to jointly confirm the direction. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Behind ZEC's decline, the real danger is not the drop itself, but how leverage changes.
When trading ZEC, you can't just focus on the price. On November 2nd, ZEC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $3.6 million in a single day, marking two consecutive trading days of outflows; however, there was still a net inflow of about $12.1 million over the past 7 days, indicating a divergence in capital and that it’s too early to simply conclude that institutional buying has dried up.
Derivative data is even more worth watching: ZEC open interest is about $2.34 billion, down 3.94% over the past two days. This suggests a contraction of existing positions rather than a large-scale addition of shorts. The price decline combined with a drop in open interest implies that deleveraging may be underway.
Next, focus on the $1100 level. If it breaks down with increased volume and open interest rises again, then beware of a new leverage-driven acceleration of the downtrend; if open interest continues to fall, it may just be ongoing position liquidation. My approach is not to blindly short now, but to wait for a resonance signal from price, volume, and open interest. Opportunities are important, but the basis for entry is even more important. $BTC $ETH #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ SOL fell below 94, and my altcoin positions gave out before BTC did.
Reviewing this morning's ETF data, the clearer it gets.
BTC is struggling around 76,000, with a single-day ETF outflow of 643 million; ETH is barely holding at 2,250, with ETF outflows for five consecutive days, 156 million in a single day; SOL is the most direct, at 93.29, losing 95 support, with ETF outflows for five consecutive days totaling 71.5 million, and a recent single-day outflow of 10.74 million.
I don't hold much BTC, altcoins make up the majority of my positions. This data translates to one sentence: money is shrinking into BTC, ETH is barely holding, and liquidity is being drained from SOL and altcoins. If a rebound really comes, the leaders will recover first, not my positions. Maybe feeling uneasy
This deeply trapped bottomless position
All for profit
Continuous decline
The market is so tough
No one knows where the rise point is
Nobody can predict
what wi11 happen
The only thing to do is to desperately add positions
Swear to turn the floating loss into floating profit
Hold tight and don't let go
Keep adding positions
Shout out, this time it's definitely a win
Shout out wow! Hang in there
Until the profit is so much your hands go weak
From now on
What do you see?
Ignite my profits
A full year of gains after the midterm elections in history. I believe the direction must be up.
Historically, in the 12 months after the midterm elections, BTC rose three times, about +25%, +45%, +92% respectively. But in the weeks after each vote, it first fell for a while. This time BTC is about 76,700, still 3,000 short of 80,000, short-term grinding is highly probable
$ETH about 2,250, still falling in 24 hours. ETH needs extra verification of capital flow recovery, it can't take off right after the election ends. I don't hold ETH, but watching the 2,200 level, breaking it is an opportunity, not a disaster
$SNDK pre-market up over 2% to 1,102, storage chip stocks are rebounding. The AI capital expenditure narrative is not dead, SanDisk is the most direct ticket on this line, if fiscal expectations warm after the election, it will react before the crypto circle
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ @你的爱播Misa As of November 3, 2026, I believe Bitcoin still carries a short-term risk of further decline, and it cannot yet be confirmed that the bottom has been reached. In the coming days, I lean towards a cautious bearish view but do not rule out a strong rebound.
I analyze from three aspects: technicals, capital flow, and possible upcoming trends.
Market data as of November 3:
* BTC price: approximately $76,400.
* Past 24 hours: down about 2.2%.
* Past 7 days: down about 3.6%.
* From the 2025 all-time high of $126,080, it has retraced about 39%.
The market is clearly weak at the moment.
Why do I think it might continue to fall?
I believe there are four important reasons.
1. Continuous outflow of ETF funds
U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs:
* Net outflow of about $643 million on October 30.
* Net outflow of about $399 million on November 2.
This indicates that institutional funds have not formed a sustained buying force currently.
This is a signal I am quite concerned about.
2. Market confidence is hit
The recent Binance security incident has triggered market concerns, raising investors' risk aversion.
3. Leverage funds still pose risks
There have been long liquidations in the market, indicating some investors are still using leverage to buy the dip.
If prices fall again, it may trigger a new round of cascading liquidations.
4. Technical trend has not truly strengthened yet
Bitcoin is still under short-term selling pressure and has not yet formed a clear reversal structure.【Tether Holds 150,000 $BTC, Corporate Accumulation Begins to Carry Weight】
Tether's CEO stated that the company's Bitcoin holdings have reached about 150,000 BTC, valued at approximately $11.5 billion at current prices, accounting for about 0.75% of Bitcoin's circulating supply. A single company holding this much BTC is continuously converting circulating market chips into long-term reserves.
Tether has the capacity to keep buying, backed by solid profits. The company’s net operating profit reached $1.5 billion in Q3, totaling $4.5 billion in the first three quarters, and as early as 2023, it decided to allocate up to 15% of realized net operating profits to purchase BTC. This means its buying power is sustainable, not solely dependent on short-term market trends, adding a heavyweight player to the corporate holding sector.
However, BTC is still hovering around $77,000, and on November 2, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about $399 million, indicating institutional funds have not yet formed a short-term consensus. Tether’s long-term allocation and the ETF’s short-term capital flows are clearly moving in different directions at present.
The long-term accumulation of 150,000 BTC means further reduction in circulating supply; if other companies follow suit, the supply-side impact will gradually accumulate. Short-term, market capital needs to return, but in the long run, Tether is using its profits to provide sustained buying support for Bitcoin. Bitcoin's timing window is becoming very subtle.
Looking back at the timing of previous cycle bottoms:
2014: 71 days after the midterm elections
2018: 39 days after the midterm elections
2022: 13 days after the midterm elections
The next midterm election is today.#US October Nonfarm Payrolls Released: Is There Still a Chance for a Rate Cut? Regarding shorting the Nasdaq, I'm not bearish on tech; I just feel that this market tells its stories too fast, and the ledger can't keep up with the delivery speed.
This week is nonfarm payroll week. Once the data is out, rate cuts will likely be postponed further, possibly until next year when the calendar is worn out and we still haven't seen one. So recently, I've been focused on one thing: "physically cooling down" the Nasdaq.
The three-layer joke logic is as follows:
1) The AI story burns cash faster than it makes money
Hundreds of billions in capital expenditure poured in, like renting an entire floor of a data center in Las Vegas.
Looking back at the revenue side: still the same advertising fees, plus some cloud subscriptions.
Spend 100, earn 4, but the market prices it as "earning 100 next year, going public on another planet the year after."
This isn't investing; it's handing out bonuses for PowerPoint presentations.
2) Interest rates don't cooperate; the denominator is colder than before
US Treasury yields hang high overhead, rate cuts delayed again and again.
Growth stocks rely on "bringing tomorrow's cash flow to the present to pamper,"
But when the discount denominator tightens, valuations kneel first—like buying a phone on installments, suddenly the interest doubles, and you rush to sell the phone on a secondhand market overnight.Profit halved, yet the stock price is the only one rising among the seven giants.🤨🤨
10/20→11/2 close:
$TSLA A +8.1%
$NVDA -6.7%
$AMZN -6.5%
$META -12.6%
$GOOGL -18.0%
Tesla Q3 operating profit down 56% year-on-year, P/E ratio over 400 times.
What supports the price is the story: Robotaxi rolled into Fort Worth on Monday, Sweden registrations up 248% in October.
AI capital expenditure was dumped, but the autonomous driving narrative was bought? 22 million USD,
transferred out from his own wallet within a few days.
Then, he posted the tweet.
He is Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX.
On October 15th, he shouted: buy Bitcoin, buy Ethereum.
A few days later, he sold over 22 million USD worth of coins.
Today, he continues tweeting bearish:
Bitcoin will weaken further.
How long will it stay weak?
Until the Federal Reserve or banks start printing money again.
Let's get the order clear:
Sell first, then talk bearish.
Words can be said casually,
but wallets don't lie.
Why does he dare say this?
This year, the USD supply increased by 4.5%.
But the leader hasn't started.
The Fed hasn't printed money, and banks haven't lent out.
The liquidity is in the pool but hasn't flowed into crypto.
The market is playing out like this:
Global money supply hit a record high.
Bitcoin, however, fell back to two months ago.
More money, but coins don't rise.
It's not money that's lacking.
What's missing is the printing press restarting.
So don't try to guess the bottom now.
Just focus on one signal:
The Fed's balance sheet expanding again.
Here's the key point:
The day the printing press opens the floodgates.
Before that, it's all grinding.
Grinding until you can't hold on,
grinding until you can't resist chasing highs.
Wait for the signal to light up, then talk about bottom fishing. 苹果这份成绩单是分裂的：营收1,144.77亿美元、同比增12%，每股收益2.10美元、增14%，iPhone增17%、Mac增24%、服务收入316亿美元创历史新高——全超了市场预期。转头给的下一季指引就软了：营收增7%到10%、服务增8%到9%、毛利率45%到46%。服务增速比这一季的10%低，毛利率比本季的47.9%低，盘前直接砸下去4%以上。 问题不在需求端，在成本端。管理层把话说得很直：内存价格前所未见，采购承诺比6月季度多出约330亿美元，全财年研发支出457.65亿美元、同比增32.5%。Siri的AI每天被调用25亿次，云端推理的账单已经大到要琢磨塞进订阅里收钱。这不是手机卖不动，是"AI税"从成本表底下捅上来了。 政治高手的看法：这份财报卡在中期选举前两天落地，这几天科技股集体挨刀，标普跌0.5%、纳指跌1.1%。业绩超预期的公司被卖掉，说明卖的人不是在看利润表，是在腾仓位。这种时候谁在卖、为什么卖，比财报数字重要得多。 金融高手的角度，这条链条要看清楚：AI资本开支上来，内存和算力就涨价，科技公司的成本吃掉利润率，而估值分母那头——实际利率——一分没降。分子先被压，Gold $XAU has some data today that's quite worth studying🤨
The World Gold Council just released its Q3 report, cutting this year's gold investment demand growth forecast from 400 tons directly down to 200 tons
But on the other hand, global central banks net bought 321 tons of gold in Q3, a 42% year-on-year increase, and gold ETFs also recorded a net inflow of 211 tons😯
Here we see a big contrast:
Ordinary investors' enthusiasm for buying gold bars and coins has clearly cooled, yet central banks and ETF funds are still continuously allocating to gold
Especially central bank gold purchases, which have reached 675 tons in the first three quarters of this year, even surpassing the same period last year
I think this report reflects a divergence in gold demand structure:
High interest rates and a strong dollar do suppress some investment demand, but reserve diversification, fiscal risks, and macro uncertainty still support another segment of buying
Of course, heavy central bank buying doesn't necessarily mean short-term gold prices will rise
What’s really worth watching next is whether ETF funds can continue to flow in, and whether central bank purchases can offset the slowdown in private investment demand
#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 @OKX星球 @可乐Cola_OKX #With the US midterm elections approaching, which results are worth watching?
Analysis of the closing markets in South Korea, Hong Kong, and A-shares: The same AI, South Korean stocks are cutting losses, while Hong Kong and A-shares are shifting pockets
The semiconductor sector fell more than 3.3% overnight, with Intel, Micron, and Marvell continuing to take hits; this sentiment has yet to subside in today's Asian session.
South Korean stocks took the direct hit.
KOSPI closed at 5648.79, down 3.59%; KOSDAQ was even worse, down 4.08%. Foreign investors net sold 1.52 trillion KRW, institutions dumped another 511.8 billion KRW, while individuals bought 1.66 trillion KRW, a typical "foreign capital withdrawal, retail investors holding on hard" scenario. Samsung Electronics dropped 4.15%, SK Hynix fell 5.03%, with semiconductor heavyweights hit hard by the US AI hardware sell-off.
Hong Kong stocks took a different path.
The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,525, up 0.57%, with southbound funds net buying HKD 23.4 billion, ending 14 consecutive trading days of net outflows. But the structure was very fragmented: AI hardware and optical communications were heavily sold, with Zhongji Xuchuang down over 10%, Lenovo down over 6%; the beneficiaries were big consumer and insurance stocks, with Haidilao up over 6%, Mengniu and China Resources Beer up over 4%, and China Pacific Insurance up over 4%.
A-shares followed the same script.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.82% to close at 3608, with turnover shrinking to 1.72 trillion CNY. The index looked weak, but there was rotation underneath. Electronics saw a net outflow of 8.7 billion CNY, with semiconductors and memory chips being the hardest hit; CATL saw a net inflow of over 1.2 billion CNY, rising 3.8%; Kweichow Moutai surged nearly 3%, with a single-day net inflow of 2.2 billion CNY, approaching 1,500.BREAKING Bitcoin has a curious relationship with U.S. midterm elections. Historically, these political events have sometimes been followed by sharp market pullbacks and traders are watching closely as voting begins.
But history is a reference, not a guarantee. This time, macro conditions, liquidity ETF flows and investor positioning could change the outcome.
I'm watching how $BTC reacts around key support levels. Will sellers take control again or will Bitcoin break the historical pattern?