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📂 20U Real Account Record 102
💰 Principal: 20U
📉 Profit on this trade: Floating profit
✅ Total earnings: About +85U
📌 Current position: $ONE short position
Continuing to hold the ONE short position, not discussing this trade today, let's look at some data from early October.
1. The market just went through a round of leverage liquidation. On October 6, BTC plunged nearly $2,000 intraday, with about $394 million in positions liquidated within an hour, of which $384 million came from longs. Over 24 hours, the entire market liquidated over $1 billion, with longs as the absolute majority. BTC once dropped to around 82,500 before stabilizing. After such concentrated liquidations, the market needs time to recover; it’s not a matter of one or two days.
2. But there is substantial progress on the SOL side. The Solana Foundation launched Solana DvP, an open-source settlement solution for financial institutions, with design input from JPMorgan Chase. The goal is to compress the traditional 1 to 2-day securities settlement cycle into seconds, by merging asset delivery and fund settlement into a single atomic transaction. Meanwhile, Solana partnered with Samsung Wallet, enabling 82 million Galaxy devices to directly transfer USDC starting from late October without needing an extra app. On the technical side, the block interval officially went live at 200 milliseconds, and the epoch length was shortened from about two days to about one day.
3. Back to ONE. The chain has been shut down, and the token migrated to Ethereum as an ERC-20, basically wiping out its practical value The start of ETH's book profit turning positive is when I need to be cautious about the market trend.
Today I saw two sentences written by a senior I have followed for more than 5 years:
The biggest taboo in trading:
If you go long, you should not just look bullish.
Conversely,
Don't just look bearish when shorting; rather, short without looking bearish!
I've wanted to quote this in my posts for a long time.
But after thinking it over, only when writing about this batch of ETH does it fit well to explain my understanding.
Limited by OK Planet's 500-byte limit, I'll briefly say it now, and later I can write a long detailed post with screenshots.
My understanding is:
First sentence: Trading has a very strong reflexivity.
For example, if I am currently long ETH, yes, I am indeed long, but I clearly know that ETH is very unlikely to break through the 2535 to 2566 range before 8 PM tomorrow.
You cannot forget the essence of trading: risk control, just because of your position.
This has nothing to do with my small Ant position; this is a trading discipline. I write so many articles, and I don't take it lightly or make things up just because of my Ant position.
Second sentence: Trading is a zero-sum game, so when you see a resistance level while shorting, your opponents see a breakout level. This is the confrontation!
Because of this, I know that now that ETH is profitable for me, the time to remind my brothers to exit is not far off.
When the overall market is not one-sided, this risk awareness is especially important.
Alright, no more space.$BTC's early session false breakout was crushed back, but it stood back above the daily EMA20 in the evening.
Current price is about 83200, EMA20≈83150, today's high 83250. Direct view:
If the daily candle closes steadily above 83150 → next target 83530, only after surpassing that do we talk about the Bollinger middle band at 84100;
If it fails to close back above 83100 / breaks today's low 82800 again → bears continue, watch 82280, if broken then look at 81700/80400.
Volume is only about one-sixth of the near 5-day average volume, don't mistake the low-volume rebound for a true breakout.
US inflation data on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday will likely determine the direction. Treat the low-volume rebound as a probe first, don't chase.$STRK 三天后就解锁了，这样拉高是为了卖个好价格吗？On the radar echo map, that deep red strong convective cloud cluster is rapidly moving from the US stock market towards the digital asset market. $xTSLA, this target, is like a sounding balloon held down by the subtropical high pressure—calm on the surface, but turbulence inside has already maxed out.
I've been monitoring weather maps in the duty room for fifteen years; what I fear most is not a typhoon making a direct landfall, but the "peripheral circulation"—winds aren't strong, rain isn't heavy, but the pressure gradient quietly maxes out. Your stop-loss strategy is your lightning grounding wire. Without it, a single cloud-to-ground lightning strike can break through the entire power grid. Position management is your tether line; no matter how high the balloon flies, if the rope breaks, it's a meteor, not a satellite.
From the sounding curve, the correlation between $xTSLA and US stocks looks exactly like a sea-land breeze circulation: blowing toward land during the day, turning toward the sea at night. When the direction aligns, you glide with the wind; once the shear line passes, wind shear can tear the wings to pieces. Over the past three observation cycles, the correlation coefficient dropped sharply from 0.87 to 0.62, then rebounded to 0.91—this is not a steady state, but a pressure surge during a frontal passage.
Someone asked me, what does the maximum loss look like? Like a localized heavy rainstorm without warning. The radar only shows yellow-green echoes, but the hourly rainfall breaks 100 mm. The system reports light rain, but the ground has become a flood. The best trades are like locking in a typhoon path 72 hours in advance—not relying on a single model, but ensemble forecasting—multiple members, multiple initial fields, multiple perturbations. A single signal is always just a raindrop in a probability cloud.
When the sentiment indicator reaches the greed zone, it's like the dew point temperature approaching the air temperature, fog is about to form. When visibility suddenly drops, the most dangerous thing is not getting lost, but thinking you can still see clearly.
Today's $xTSLA market, the pressure trough is moving eastward, and the shortwave ridge is temporarily controlling the field. Wind convergence is concentrated in the Asian session, with a risk of shear line passage during the European and American sessions. Convective available potential energy is not extreme, but vertical wind shear is increasing—which means rapid rises and rapid falls.
Don't ask me if tomorrow will be sunny or rainy. I only report data: the divergence field has disturbances, vorticity advection is strengthening, and geopotential height shows negative height anomalies at the 500 hPa level. Experience is a sounding balloon, not a lightning rod. Stop-losses shared by others won't save your position structure.
At 20:00 Beijing time, the satellite cloud image updated. The infrared channel shows that the deep red cloud top brightness temperature has dropped below minus seventy-eight degrees.
The strong convective warning signal has been upgraded from yellow to orange. #okxtradervoicesThis kind of quiet market over the weekend actually resembles a consolidation phase more than a start. Are you still watching those key levels, or have you already been carried away by small-scale fluctuations? My own feeling is that these past two days look more like a mix of game theory and consolidation, not a window for chasing gains. BTC is currently around 82911, with the first resistance at 87400; only if it breaks through and holds above that can it attempt to test 93000 to 94500. On the downside, the key is to hold 80600; if it breaks, be more cautious, with 75000 as a stronger support. ETH is about 2493, with a repair pressure zone between 2666 and 2689; only after passing that should we look at 2800. On the downside, watch 2400 and 2358; if it breaks 2320, stop losses should be taken promptly. SOL is around 110, with resistance at 125; 96 to 100 is a critical defense zone—don’t stubbornly hold if it falls below 96. This time, I want to look through one lens: capital preference. It’s more important than just watching price points. Weekend volume is thin, so prices can be pushed around by a few orders; what really needs observation is where the money prefers to stay. BTC holding above 80600 indicates that big money isn’t rushing to exit; risk appetite is just contracting, not collapsing. ETH stuck below 2666 to 2689 means repair buying is still hesitant, making altcoins more likely to lose attention. SOL’s 96 to 100 acts like a sentiment thermometer—holding it means high risk appetite remains; losing it means funds will quickly flow back to BTC and stablecoins. Slightly bullish Brothers, for the coming week, I personally remain bearish! This time I'll directly set the target prices, and we'll come back to verify after a week.
$BTC: Target 79000–81000
$ETH: Target 2350–2450
Starting with Bitcoin, it fell from 87374 earlier, and the rebound hasn't been able to reverse the situation. I don't really believe this small rebound can directly reverse the trend. If 83000 can't hold, first look at 80000; if the market continues to weaken, 79000 is also possible.
Looking at Ethereum, it dropped from 2806 to around 2500, which is indeed ugly. What worries me more is the capital flow: the US spot BTC ETF has recently seen significant outflows, and ETH ETF is also under considerable outflow pressure. With money continuously flowing out, relying solely on retail investors to bottom buy, it's hard to support a decent rally.
Additionally, factors like oil prices, the dollar, and interest rates are still affecting market sentiment, so I’m not in a hurry to bottom buy for now.
My plan is simple: for BTC, watch the resistance at 84000–85000 on the rebound; for ETH, watch 2520–2550. If the rebound can't break through, I’d rather look for opportunities to short.
Of course, the target prices don’t mean they will definitely be reached. If capital flows back strongly and prices decisively reclaim resistance levels, I will change my view; no need to stubbornly bet against the market.
This week, I’ll be focusing on these two ranges.
What do you think, will BTC break below 80000 first, or will ETH break below 2400 first? $AXS Damn it! This AXS order book is driving my blood pressure through the roof. It’s been hovering around 1.2436 for almost two hours, with buy orders being placed and withdrawn repeatedly—a classic pump-and-dump manipulation by the whales 🐶. The resistance at 1.26 is tight; every time it tries to surge, it gets slapped back down. The volume is shrinking too, clearly a bull trap. My plan is simple: short directly near 1.2436, set stop loss at 1.262, target first 1.20, and if that breaks, then 1.16. No rush, waiting for the signal. This capital battle will explode sooner or later. If you want to follow, click the token market card below and analyze the order book yourself before deciding. This is just my personal opinion, not investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, please make decisions cautiously.
👇👇👇$CFX perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.069, currently 0.06553, floating profit +100.57%.
If 0.069 can't be broken upwards, it just can't be broken; every time it reaches around here, it feels like there's selling pressure holding it down. I believe the top has been confirmed, will short directly on a bearish candle. 20x leverage, very small position, stop loss at 0.07.
Currently +100.57%, moving stop loss to 0.069. Profit secured, staying calm, watching the remaining position.
$ETH $STRK #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test This indicates that the price experienced a significant pullback and rebound, but the rebound itself does not yet prove that the downtrend has ended.
ETH — Ethereum
2,777 → 2,405 → 2,500
Fell from 2,777 to 2,405, a maximum drop of about 13.4%; then rebounded to around 2,500.
ETH's drop percentage is greater than BTC's, indicating that ETH endured stronger price pressure during this market phase.
The above prices are from the post you shared and do not represent real-time market data independently verified by me.
2. What does the US government transferring 17,733 BTC mean?
The post claims that the US government transferred 17,733 BTC, valued at approximately 1.48 billion USD.
This news requires distinguishing three concepts:
Transfer: BTC moved from one address to another.
Exchange deposit: May increase potential selling pressure but does not mean it has been sold yet.Active Buy/Sell Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$BTC final segment active trades shifted from selling bias to buying bias. Overall active buying was 64.5%, with the last 5 minutes at 79.4%, and the price in this segment increased by 0.03%. Trade direction shifted, but price change in the final segment was limited.$PUMP Perpetual 50x long position, opened at 0.005482, currently 0.005624, floating profit +129.51%.
I've actually been watching this position for quite a while. The 0.0054 level was repeatedly tested but never broken; there is strong support around this area every time. After confirming the bottom is valid, I decisively went long with a bullish candle. Using 50x leverage, the position size was pushed to the extreme.
Currently floating profit is +129.51%, and the trailing stop loss has been moved up to 0.005482. Not greedy, locking in profits first, then letting the rest run.
$MAGIC $STRK #Institutions continue to accumulate, why is BTC still under pressure? $TIA perpetual 50x short position, opened at 0.6048, currently at 0.5735, floating profit +258.76%.
After a failed breakout above 0.6, it directly plunged in a deep waterfall drop. I followed the short trend with a stop loss set above 0.62. With 50x leverage and a very small position, the movement was much weaker than expected, free-falling directly to around 0.5735, with a return rate exceeding 2.5 times!
Moved the stop loss up to 0.6048, now watching if the 0.55 whole number support can hold.
$ETH $MAGIC #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test 🐋 Smart money is split! Whales bought 15,000 BTC and 166,000 ETH in 3 days, while POAP's founder sold 8,000 ETH over 6 days.
Key levels I'm watching:
📍 BTC: $81K–$84K
📍 ETH: $2,460 support
📍 SOL: $105–$115
Whale moves are clues, not guarantees. Stay patient, wait for confirmation, and don't risk your capital just because others are moving.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#CPIPPIHikeWatch #BTCETFOutflowPressure $STRK perpetual 50x long position, opened at 0.10868, currently at 0.11544, floating profit +311.00%
The logic is simple: the 0.108 integer level was tested multiple times without breaking, volume decreased, showing clear bottom characteristics. Finally waited for a strong bullish candle to follow the long. 50x leverage, stop loss at 0.105. The price action was quite smooth, no deep pullback opportunity, directly rallied to 0.11544.
Moved stop loss up to 0.10868 to lock in profits. If the volume breaks above 0.12, can hold a bit longer to see 0.125.
$ETH $BTC #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test $STRK 这单50倍多，浮盈几十倍了，说真的我自己看着都觉得离谱。但越是这种时候越要冷静——底部0.07附近敢接，靠的是筹码洗透了、跌不动了，现在轧空拉到这位置，逻辑已经走完了大半。
剩下那点底仓我止损早就拉成本线上了，怎么都不亏。赚到的先锁了大半，这钱揣兜里谁也拿不走。50倍到这个位置不贪，再往上走是运气，往下回踩也伤不到我。$BTC
没上车的兄弟别眼红，这种拉法随时可能洗盘，等回踩确认再说。$ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 A golden cross has appeared on the DOGE daily chart for the first time in 14 months, with the 50-day moving average officially crossing above the 200-day moving average. The last time this happened was in August 2025, after which DOGE rose to $0.3 within a few weeks.
However, after this cross appeared this time, the price actually dropped slightly from 0.093. I stared at the point where the death cross turned into a golden cross for a while, feeling a bit uneasy.
But I noticed a detail — the price had actually already risen above the 200-day moving average before the golden cross formed. In other words, the price moved first, and the moving averages followed. Moving averages are lagging indicators; the price is the leading signal.
While reviewing the previous data, I also found something else. During the golden cross in August 2025, the price did not immediately rise after the signal appeared but gradually climbed over the following weeks. When it really took off, most people had already stopped paying much attention.
Right now, the price is fluctuating between 0.086 and 0.093, with resistance at 0.095 and 0.098 ahead, and then 0.106 above that. I tell myself not to rush. Something that took 14 months to arrive isn’t going to be lost over a few days. $DOGE $MINA
MINA反弹近一成，连续下跌留下的供应消化了吗？
今天早间现货24小时观察窗口：区间0.07946—0.09633 USDT，变化+9.58%，成交额约447万USDT。
报价处于区间中段，恢复已有但高位失地尚未全部收回。此前高位买方的减亏供应可能压制反弹，单次上涨无法确认这部分筹码已被新需求吸收。
如果0.09633附近上涨不断被卖回，先保留反抽解释；如果回踩不再跌向0.07946、高低点共同抬高，再提高供应消化判断。$SNDK 永续75倍多单，1591.4开，现1603.1，浮盈+55.14%。
就是赌一个底部反转：1591.4 三次测试不破，量能阶梯式递减，底部特征很标准。等阳线拉起来那一刻进场，绝不提前猜底。75倍，止损 1580。这一波走得非常干净，几乎没有回踩。
暂时不动，让子弹飞一会儿。1595 作为防守线先挂着保住本金安全，等 1620 那边给明确信号再说加不减的事，不着急。Brothers, the most terrifying thing about Big Bro Maji's short position this time might not be the unrealized loss, but the funding rate! 🔥
BTC, ETH, and SOL, the three major mainstream coins, are collectively shorted, with a nominal position value exceeding 600 million U! According to this on-chain data estimate, he has already suffered an unrealized loss of over 50 million U, yet he still hasn't easily given up.
More importantly: how much longer can he collect funding fees? Once the rate reverses, will the situation completely change? 👀
📉 How much pressure do the three major short positions have?
🔹 BTC: 2,853 coins, 5x leverage 🔹 ETH: 111,800 coins, 5x leverage 🔹 SOL: 741,900 coins, 10x leverage
The most nerve-wracking is SOL! 10x leverage means profit and loss changes are more sensitive to price fluctuations, and if it continues to rebound, short pressure may further escalate.
⚠️ Unrealized loss of over 50 million U, can it really hold on?
According to the original screenshot estimate, BTC needs to rise about 60%, ETH about 50%, and SOL nearly double to possibly reach the corresponding liquidation price.
But this is only a reference estimate; the actual liquidation point will also be affected by margin, position changes, and platform rules. Having room before liquidation does not mean the risk disappears!
💰 The real suspense: 9.5 million U in funding fees, how long can it last?
According to this data estimate, the three positions have cumulatively earned nearly 9.5 million U in funding fees.
If the funding rate continues to be favorable to BTC ETH focus on two nights next week: October 14 (Wednesday) 20:30, US September CPI; October 15 (Thursday) 20:30, US September PPI, all in Beijing time.
The data has not been released yet, so don't fix the direction in advance. At that time, focus on the gap between the actual value and market expectations, then observe the reactions of the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and coin prices. If the first wave of sharp rise and fall is quickly withdrawn, continue to see if the trading volume can keep up.
$BTC $ETH #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ 🏦 Can Traditional Finance Move On-Chain?
$ONDO Finance focuses on bringing tokenized financial products to blockchain networks. The idea is interesting because it connects traditional assets with digital infrastructure.
However, regulation, product eligibility, custody, and actual adoption matter more than headlines. Also, owning ONDO does not automatically mean owning the underlying financial assets.
Do you think tokenized real-world assets will become a major crypto sector?
#ONDO $MAGIC 永续20倍空单，0.1261开，现0.12162，浮盈+71.05%。
思路很朴素：顶部横盘放量到极致，波动率压到地板，说明筹码准备出货。一根放量阴线直接把价格从 0.1261 砸下来，典型的破位信号，追空不追多。20倍杠杆，止损 0.129。走势一路向下，不给任何舒服的上车位。
这位置我打算先减一半仓位落袋，剩下的一半止损提到 0.123 让利润跑。0.118 能放量跌破就继续拿，跌不破就全平走人。$BTC $ETH #跟着OKX打卡2049 【Argentina's inflation is so fierce, yet the central bank still won't let banks touch crypto?】
This time, Argentina's central bank has no plans to integrate cryptocurrencies into the banking payment system. It sounds a bit counterintuitive since Argentinians have long faced peso depreciation, and $BTC and stablecoins already have real demand.
In fact, Argentina's central bank had already restricted banks from offering crypto asset trading services back in 2022, and in 2023 expanded the restrictions to payment service providers offering payment accounts. This latest news shouldn't be directly seen as a sudden tightening of regulation or new negative news.
The real contradiction here is: the public's need for crypto assets as a hedge doesn't mean the government is willing to let them enter formal banking payment channels. For stablecoins like USDT and USDC, demand may still exist, but with limited bank access, the development of compliant trading and payment scenarios will lag behind.
This matter is more like a reminder that crypto adoption growth and regulatory loosening are fundamentally different things. If Argentina really adjusts the bank access rules later, that would be a signal worth recalculating; for now, don't package old restrictions as new negative news. $STRK 永续50倍多单，0.10931开，现0.11388，浮盈+209%。
逻辑很简单：0.10931整数关口多次探底不破，量能递减，底部特征明显。终于等到上涨大阳线，跟多。50倍杠杆，止损0.108。走势非常丝滑，没给回调机会，直接拉到0.11401。
移动止损推至0.10931锁利。上方0.12如果放量破，还能再拿一拿看0.15。
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$STRK 永续50倍多单，0.10931开，现0.11401，浮盈+209%。$BTC #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ $NEAR 永续50倍多单，5.237开，现5.321，浮盈+80.19%。
逻辑很简单：5.237 附近反复探底不破，每次回调都被快速拉起，下影线越来越长，卖盘明显衰竭。等到放量突破，右侧确认，跟多进去。50倍，止损 5.15。这一波涨得比较流畅，完全没给回踩机会。
现在把止损挪到 5.28 锁利。上方 5.4 如果放量突破，还能再拿一拿。$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $CAP The thing that should be dismantled most is not the price increase, but what the controlling party is thinking: using a very small circulating supply to hype an institutional credit story several times over a few months, then offloading the tokens at a high level to those chasing the story.
First, clarify the token structure. Circulating supply accounts for less than 20%, total supply is more than six times the circulating amount, and tens of millions of tokens are still locked on the books waiting to be unlocked. This asymmetry means a small number of chips can leverage the price, the cost of pumping is negligible, and conversely, a single move can crush it—the controlling party has innate conditions to manipulate the market.
The method is textbook. The first phase is slowly absorbing small orders at a low price, the price gradually rising like boiling a frog in warm water, wearing down retail investors' vigilance; the second phase uses real profit narratives plus a Korean listing, pushing the price to a historical high with perpetual leverage rather than actual spot capital, with daily volume several times the usual but active buy orders only slightly exceeding sell orders—the leverage is provided by others; the third phase is a reversal at the top, a long wick sweeps stop losses clean, tokens are moved to exchanges simultaneously, pumping while stocking up.
Now it’s stuck at a high level, with long leverage squeezed, fees turning positive, and greedy sentiment—the ones taking over are emotional traders chasing the narrative. The volume at the top is distribution, not absorption, and the tokens moved to exchanges are goods, not hoarded. In this structure, the controlling party only wants the hype to persist and opponents to keep coming—the story is still being told, but the tokens are already on the way.This message analyzes the liquidation zones above and below BTC (Bitcoin). The key point is: according to this data, the liquidation amount of long positions below BTC is greater than the liquidation amount of short positions above, so if the price drops, it may trigger a chain liquidation of longs. However, this does not mean the price will necessarily fall first.
1. What do these numbers mean?
Above: Short position liquidations
About $124M
Largest liquidation concentration zone: $84,244 ($49.6M)
If BTC rises to these areas, some short sellers using leverage may be forced to liquidate, and buying to close positions could further push the price up. #CPIPPIHikeWatch #OKXToken2049CheckIn #BTCETFOutflowPressure $CFX $ZK real-time data dashboard (pulled around 2026-10-11 20:00 Beijing time)｜Direction: bullish bias OKX/Binance spot: $CFX around $0.0653 (24h +27%), volume about 40 million+, range about $0.0512–$0.0724, daily range position about 70%+; $ZK around $0.0156 (24h +11%～+14%), volume about 80 million+, range about $0.0132–$0.0165, position about 65%～70%. USDT-margined contracts: CFX funding rate about -0.03%～-0.045% (shorts pay longs, low crowding), open interest expanding significantly; ZK funding rate about +0.005%, open interest rising synchronously, leverage not extremely crowded. Global crypto market cap about $2.80–$2.82 trillion, BTC dominance about 59%, on-chain fees extremely low. Short-term analysis: The main theme this round is "public chain pulse + zkL2 mid-high level resonance" — $CFX strong pullback pulse, $ZK synchronously following mid-high level rise, a clear rotation compared to the previous STRK/WLD "L2 identity narrative". Funding rates not extreme, OI expansion healthy. Key price levels: • $CFX support around $0.060 / $0.058, resistance at daily high $0.072; • $ZK support around $0.0145 / $0.0142, It's not the market that kills you, it's your overconfidence in yourself.
BTC dropped from 87,000 to 80,400, now hovering around 82,500. ETH rolled down from 2,777 to 2,405, bounced back to around 2,500 and stalled.
Who dumped the market this round? The U.S. government deposited 17,733 BTC worth 1.48 billion.When everyone is talking about QQQ and buying frantically, the risk is near. This is the market rule of contrarian thinking, supported by data:
1. QQQ is highly concentrated: Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft together account for over 21%, so buying QQQ is essentially betting on these three.
2. Market breadth has collapsed: 51% of the Russell 3000 is already in a bear market, the median stock in the S&P 500 is 16% below its peak, and breadth has fallen to the lowest level since the internet bubble. The index is in the clouds, individual stocks are in the mud.
3. Retail investors chase highs while institutions retreat: AAII bullish sentiment rose from 34.6% to 40.3%, money market funds saw a net inflow of $166.4 billion in a single week (the highest since April 2020). Smart money like Buffett and Rogers are watching.
4. Duan Yongping is reducing holdings: In Q2, he cut Nvidia by 54.63%, Google by 46.88%, Microsoft by 25.78%, and sold out of TSMC; he increased positions in Pinduoduo, Moutai, Alibaba, and Pop Mart.
Someone asked Duan Yongping whether to buy QQQ or PDD, and he replied, "Do you want to buy companies that have performed well in the past?" — that's the answer.
Investing looks to the future, buying on expectations, selling on facts. When everyone is discussing QQQ, the question you should ask is not "Can I still buy?" but "Who is still buying?" $BTC The market has caught its breath after the recent drop and has slightly lifted.
However, keep in mind that the 10-day moving average above $BTC is still pressing down on the price. Until it truly breaks through the 84,000 level, this should only be seen as a rebound, not the start of a new upward trend. The support at 80,300 remains very important.
As for $ETH, there's no need to say much—it’s been following Bitcoin closely and hasn’t shown much strength on its own. Resistance is expected around 2,600 above, and watch the 2,400 level below; if that breaks, the market will continue to struggle.
$ZEC’s rebound looks promising, but don’t forget how sharply it fell recently. It’s about to hit the resistance zone above. These altcoins tend to rise quickly and fall just as fast, so don’t get carried away and increase your position impulsively.
The market is currently in a phase of oscillation, choosing its direction. Being conservative is never wrong. #CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, and interest rate hike expectations are about to be tested Just switched the software to the background, and it popped right back up—are you playing hide and seek with me? When the market was just crashing in the early session, I was watching the rebound strength of $TIA, but every time it surged, it fell just short, selling pressure was strong, volume was low, and the bears had full control.
Opened a short near 0.5863, held all the way to 0.5778, +73.34% realized profit, really satisfying, time for a good meal.
As long as the trend isn’t broken, hold on; if it breaks, run—don’t fall in love with stocks. Even if you only make one point, as long as you can take it away, it’s yours; any unrealized gains belong to the market.
First, take profits on 80% of the position to secure your gains, keep the remaining 20% at cost as protection. If it continues to drop, let the profits run; if it rebounds, don’t give back your gains.
For those who haven’t entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to chase; chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I’ll notify you immediately. Awaiting good news.
$DOGE $LAB Analysis of the market on October 11th as follows 👇 (short)
Reasons for the bearish outlook are mainly as follows:
1️⃣ Macro side triggered a shock, oil prices rose, the market fears inflation making a comeback.
2️⃣ US Treasury yields soared to high levels, and with such attractive risk-free returns, funds naturally withdraw from high-risk assets.
3️⃣ Non-farm payrolls below expectations → weakening employment, signs of economic recession, funds will sell off high-risk assets to hedge; oil prices have only temporarily stabilized but remain high → inflation risks persist, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut rates quickly and significantly; conclusion: easing expectations are dashed, assets still face downward pressure.
With these macro bearish factors stacking up, the major cryptocurrency is not far from breaking key support.
Trading suggestions:
🚥BTC: 83500-84000 short Target 81500 Break below target 79500
🚥ETH: 2530-2550 short Target 2400 Break below target 2300
$BTC $ETH $ARB 永续50倍多单，0.19711开，现0.20183，浮盈+119.73%。
没想太多：前期盘整够久，0.19711 平台反复确认有效，底部特征很清楚。放量阳线一出就进，跟趋势不跟情绪。50倍，止损 0.193。拉得又快又稳，完全不给二次进场机会。
0.20 先锁一层安全垫。我个人判断 0.21 附近会有压力，到时候看量能决定是走还是留，不提前猜顶。$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 NEAR at $5.3, do you chase or not?
A month ago it was only $2.5, now $5.3, more than doubled. Bitwise spot ETF launched, cross-chain volume exceeded $33 billion, quantum resistance upgraded—but just now, 24-hour volatility exceeded 5%, price stuck at 5.3, neither going up nor down. Is this wave a main upward trend continuation, or a pump-and-dump by whales using the ETF hype to offload to you?
First, the surface: up 100%, but retail investors hold almost nothing.
NEAR started at $2.5 in mid-September, surged to $5.3 in a month, market cap hit $6.8 billion ranking 20th. 24-hour volume expanded, daily RSI 61-63 neutral to strong, MACD no death cross, price well above 20/50/200-day moving averages. Candlesticks tell you: ascending channel intact, higher highs and higher lows clear—all technical indicators say: trend is intact, but don’t chase the high.
First thing: Bitwise ETF launched, this is the institutional entry ticket.
On September 29, Bitwise spot NEAR ETF (NRR) launched on NYSE Arca, first day net inflow $35.5 million, cumulative over $70 million, with plans to stake holdings.
Sounds explosive? Let me translate:
This is the first spot NEAR ETP in the US. Institutions previously had to buy NEAR through regulatory gray areas, now ETF makes it one-click. After Ethereum ETF approval, price went from 2000 to 4000; after Bitcoin ETF approval, from 40,000 to 70,000—NEAR’s ETF story is just starting.
But the painful truth: on the ETF launch day, what were you doing? Hesitating if it had already risen too much.
Second thing: NEAR Intents, the real ace no one understands.
Cumulative cross-chain volume over $33 billion, covering 30+ chains, fees partially used to buy back NEAR.
Don’t get it? Here’s the plain talk:
NEAR is quietly building a "cross-chain settlement layer" with real revenue buybacks. Not hype, not airdrop expectations, but real fees used to buy NEAR on the market.
You complain “public chains have no real revenue,” NEAR Intents processes hundreds of thousands of cross-chain transactions daily, fees go to buybacks. Retail watches charts, institutions calculate PE.
Third thing: the $3.8 million bug was actually the best advertisement.
In early October, NEAR Intents had a $3.8 million bug, team fully recovered funds within days, service restored.
You think this is bad news? It’s a stress test. Which chain hasn’t been hacked? The key is whether funds can be recovered and service restored quickly. NEAR did it.
Market reaction? Quick dip, then quick recovery. Buying resilience says it all—panicked sellers sold at the bottom, smart buyers picked discounted chips.
Fourth thing: quantum resistance upgrade, the most underrated narrative for 2026.
NEAR announced account support for ML-DSA-65 quantum-resistant signatures, no asset migration needed.
Nobody cares about quantum computing now, thinks it’s sci-fi. But I tell you: institutions fear “private keys being cracked by quantum computers someday.” NEAR is the first L1 to implement quantum resistance at the account level.
This is like ETH’s move to POS in 2020—no one believed then, later everyone regretted.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
Bitwise ETF continuous inflows, institutional compliance channel open
Intents cross-chain volume $33B+, fees buybacks create real buying pressure
Quantum resistance upgrade, unique long-term security narrative
100% monthly rise, trend intact, moving averages bullish
On the other side:
Price rose from 2.5 to 5.3, huge profit-taking pressure
5.4-5.6 strong resistance zone, multiple tests failed
Native DeFi TVL only $248 million, still behind Sui and others
If BTC pulls back, NEAR’s high beta will amplify the drop
Key level 5.3, just 0.2 below the critical 5.5 line.
Resistance above: 5.40-5.44 (recent highs) → 5.50-5.60 (critical line) → 6.0+
Support below: 5.10-5.15 (first line) → 4.80-4.90 (strong bottom) → 4.40-4.50
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Hold above 5.25-5.30 and break 5.44 with volume, enter light, target 5.60-5.80, stop loss below 5.10. Don’t chase at 5.3, wait for breakout confirmation. If breaks below 5.10 and closes lower, watch 4.80-4.90, consider entry if stable.
Swing traders:
Buy in batches at 4.80-5.00, stop loss below 4.50, first target 5.60, second target 6.0+. If 5.60 breaks with volume and holds, add positions for higher targets.
Mid-to-long-term believers:
If you believe in the narrative of “chain abstraction + AI + cross-chain execution layer,” dollar-cost average in 4.5-5.0 range, hold until ETF holdings catch up with SOL. Target $8-10. But premise: you can endure another 30% paper loss and don’t sell at the bottom.
NEAR now is like SOL in early 2021—
No one understood what it was doing, only knew it was rising. By the time everyone understands, it’s already 10x.
You watch it rise from 2.5 to 5.3, but you hold none.
You wait for a dip to 4.8, it might surge to 6.0 directly.
You chase at 5.8, it dips to 5.0 and forces you to sell at a loss.
Then it rises to 10, and you regret it.
It’s not that NEAR is bad, it’s that you keep cycling between “understanding but afraid to buy” and “chasing high and getting trapped.”
$BTC $ETH $NEAR $APR 空单，20倍，浮盈+192.49%。
回看分时，0.08上方横盘许久，反弹无力后突现断崖式下砸，空头彻底控盘。当前0.0723，走势呈阶梯下跌。这种结构下，低位反抽是常态。
我已处于绝对舒适区，防守线钉死。底仓看0.07整数关口，破则持有，不破则止盈。山寨行情情绪退潮快，保住192%的实盈，等下一轮冷清后的机会。节奏大于方向。$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Samsung Wallet will launch USDC cross-border transfers, which means the stablecoin payment scenario is expanding again. This is an implicit positive for DEX leaders like UNI, but the short-term market has not responded favorably. My judgment is that the rebound is weak and bears still dominate.
The short-term and long-term trends are both downward, but the contradiction lies in the position: the current price of 7.609 has risen slightly by 1.3% in 24 hours, yet it is still in a deep retracement of -24.45% from the four-hour high, and there is still 6.94% room to the low of this cycle; the order book's top ten bid-ask ratio is only 0.49, with 19,000 sell orders pressing against 9,029 buy orders. The funding rate of 0.0053% is positive, but under a position of 5,542,000 coin-based contracts, the bullish sentiment is clearly unstable.
Strategically, if it rebounds to around 7.648, a light short position can be tried with a stop loss at 7.712 and a target of 7.398; if it sharply falls to 7.421 and stabilizes, a reverse long position can be taken with a stop loss at 7.356 and a target of 7.585. Position size should be controlled within 5% of total funds, exit immediately if broken, and do not hold losing positions.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$UNI #Samsung Q3 preliminary profit exceeds 100 trillion Korean won for the first time
#Samsung Wallet will launch USDC cross-border transfers $UNI Samsung Wallet will launch USDC cross-border transfers, and the expansion of payment channels acts as a sentiment catalyst for payment concept stocks like SKHYNIX. However, the news is relatively soft; my judgment is that the short-term weakness is unlikely to change, only providing a chance for a partial rebound.
The 24h increase is only 0.1%, with the price stuck at 1228.9, a turnover of 45.13 million, and volume is flat. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages are pressing down, and the price has retraced 11.04% from the 4-hour high. The funding rate is 0.0000%, with 37,000 positions open; neither bulls nor bears dare to increase their positions. The top 10 order book shows 282 buy orders and 221 sell orders, with buyers slightly dominant. 1224.3 is the current strong support, and 1235.4 is the first resistance.
Strategy-wise, lightly buy on a pullback to 1226.5, stop loss at 1219.3, target 1238.7; if volume breaks below 1219.3, switch to bearish targeting 1208.6. Keep position size within 20%, as the market can be volatile based on news, so be sure to set stop losses.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SKHYNIX #Samsung Q3 preliminary profit breaks 100 trillion KRW for the first time
#Samsung Wallet will launch USDC cross-border transfers $SKHYNIX $WLD 永续50倍多单，0.5449开，现0.558，浮盈+120.20%。
就是赌一个底部反转：0.5449 三次测试不破，量能阶梯式递减，底部特征很标准。等阳线拉起来那一刻进场，绝不提前猜底。50倍，止损 0.535。这一波走得非常干净，几乎没有回踩。
暂时不动，让子弹飞一会儿。0.55 作为防守线先挂着保住本金安全，等 0.57 那边给明确信号再说加不减的事，不着急。$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 The US CFTC is advancing crypto market regulations, and the SEC plans to adjust the custody framework. Compliance expectations are heating up, which is a double-edged sword for mid-to-small cap coins like BSB: incremental funds may be delayed, but short-term sentiment is first disturbed. I tend to see the current situation as a tug-of-war with bulls defending and bears probing.
Down 2.5% in 24h to 0.09888, with a low of 0.09868 close to the current price, trading volume only 1.048 million, indicating low capital participation. Funding rate is slightly positive at 0.0050%, with open interest at 12.757 million coins. Bulls have not significantly withdrawn but are also reluctant to add positions; the top 10 order book buy/sell ratio is 0.56, with 4,477 sell orders versus 2,517 buy orders, showing clear selling pressure dominance. Although there was a rebound in the last hour, it is constrained by the 4-hour downtrend.
Strategy-wise, if the price tests 0.09815 without breaking, a light long position can be tried with a stop loss at 0.09685 and a target of 0.10125; if the rebound is resisted at 0.10235, then short in the short term with a stop loss at 0.10355 and a target of 0.09875. Single position size should not exceed 5%. With a slightly positive funding rate, overnight holding costs are low, but thin liquidity makes it vulnerable to stop hunting, so always use stop losses.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$BSB #US CFTC advancing crypto market regulations, SEC plans to adjust custody framework
#US CFTC advancing crypto market regulations, SEC plans to adjust custody framework $BSB 美CFTC推进加密市场规则、SEC拟调整托管框架，CL作为合规敏感型资产将率先承接情绪，我的判断是短线偏多但追高即违规。91.3一线距4小时高点尚差4.78%，下行却离低点4.67%，1小时结构仍向上，资金费率0.0000%说明杠杆情绪中性，持仓34.0万未见拥挤。订单簿买卖比0.92，卖压略占优，上方91.41是硬顶，下方90.65是日内防线。回踩90.85挂多，止损90.35，目标91.75；若放量跌破90.65则反手轻空，止损91.05，目标89.95。单笔仓位不超两成，止损触发即离场，不扛单。
——仅为个人看法，不构成投资建议，祝交易顺利。——
$CL#贝森特拟查扣10亿美元伊朗相关加密资产
#美CFTC推进加密市场规则，SEC拟调整托管框架 $CL Samsung's preliminary Q3 profit surpasses 100 trillion KRW for the first time, risk appetite has rebounded but has not transmitted to MMT, and I remain cautious about its short-term trend. The four-hour level downtrend remains unchanged; the rebound is more of a correction than a reversal. Current price is 0.1728, down 4.8% intraday, retraced 9.67% from the four-hour high, only 3.78% from the low, with a turnover of 477,000 and thin volume. Funding rate at 0.0050% is low, with open interest at 8.928 million, longs are not overheated. The top 10 buy orders total 24,000 versus 28,000 sell orders, ratio 0.87, sellers slightly dominant; although the 1-hour chart is upward, it is still 5.47% below the high, limiting momentum for chasing gains. Strategy: lightly buy on a pullback to 0.1713, stop loss at 0.1687, target 0.1789; if it rebounds to around 0.1793 and faces resistance, short for a quick trade, stop loss at 0.1817, target 0.1731. Single position should not exceed 3% of total funds, exit immediately if broken.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$MMT#Samsung's preliminary Q3 profit surpasses 100 trillion KRW
#Samsung's preliminary Q3 profit surpasses 100 trillion KRW $MMT $STRK 永续50倍多单，0.11084开，现0.11509，浮盈+191.71%。
逻辑很简单：0.11084 附近反复探底不破，每次回调都被快速拉起，下影线越来越长，卖盘明显衰竭。等到放量突破，右侧确认，跟多进去。50倍，止损 0.109。这一波涨得比较流畅，完全没给回踩机会。
现在把止损挪到 0.113 锁利。上方 0.12 如果放量突破，还能再拿一拿。三星Q3初步利润首破100万亿韩元，存储芯片景气度外溢至SNDK生态，我倾向短线偏多但追高需谨慎。一小时与四小时趋势均向下，距高分别回落7.36%和10.87%，距低仅1.07%和0.98%，说明抛压趋缓、低位承接渐强。现价1599.1微涨0.5%，成交额2.5万偏清淡，资金费率0.0000%显示多空未拥挤，持仓4.7万稳定。订单簿前10档买单277对卖单117，买卖比2.37，买方明显占优，若守住1586.8则有望反抽1608.1。策略一：1588.3挂多，止损1572.6，目标1612.4；策略二：跌破1572.6反手轻空，目标1561.3。仓位不超两成，破位即离场。
——仅为个人看法，不构成投资建议，祝交易顺利。——
$SNDK#三星Q3初步利润首破100万亿韩元
#三星Q3初步利润首破100万亿韩元 $SNDK 4小时线走势推演回顾：
①16点前探到83114，✔️实际83188
②20点前回调到82900，✔️实际82907
③20点前涨到83500，❌实际83165
结论和再推演：
①上方抛压较重，
②仍旧看多，24点前上方探到83500$BTC
Short-term trading of Bitcoin, the oversold condition on the 4-hour chart actually has a relatively high success rate.
But currently at the price of 80393.56, why not take the buying opportunity at this oversold point?
Because my judgment is that there will be a secondary dip structure afterward, so I believe the rebound after this oversold condition will be relatively weak.
At present, it just happens to be the weekend, so it indeed tends to be a bit weaker.
Therefore, if I want to take a long position or buy spot for a swing trade, I would wait for a lower point below, possibly breaking below the 80393 low, and only buy after the pullback confirmation.
At the same time, considering the resistance from the 3-day candlestick and the daily chart's anticipated oversold structure, whether the 4-hour adjustment and consolidation have provided enough space and time to complete this adjustment is also something to consider.
So based on these considerations, the trading frequency will be significantly reduced. Reducing trading frequency undoubtedly decreases the chances of making mistakes, which I think is quite good.Sideways movement doesn't mean a rise; it means no one dares to move
$BTC hasn't dropped further after the sharp fall.
The price is stuck grinding back and forth within a range.
What is this price level:
There is resistance at 84000 going up, and buyers at 80000 going down.
Neither side is willing to make the first move in the middle range.
What will happen next:
Before next Wednesday's CPI release, positions are unlikely to change significantly.
Liquidity is thin over the weekend, so volatility is naturally low.
More people are waiting for the data than placing orders.
Not using leverage is the bottom line.
Invest spare money; if the price hasn't reached your target, just wait.
The narrower the range, the more it indicates both sides are waiting for the same number.
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $BTC TSMC's Q3 revenue hits a new high, with the October 15 earnings report focusing on advanced processes and AI demand, which directly correlates with the crypto AI narrative sentiment represented by KAITO. I judge the short-term trend to be slightly strong with some volatility. Current price is 0.3177, up 0.7% in 24h, volume 7.318 million, funding rate -0.0028%, open interest 10.439 million coins. Bears slightly dominate but the 1-hour upward structure remains intact. The 4-hour chart is still in a downtrend channel. The buy/sell ratio in the top 10 levels is 0.92, with slightly heavier selling pressure. The breakout confirmation point above is 0.3245, and the key support below is 0.3145; breaking below would indicate weakness. Strategy: lightly buy on a pullback to 0.3163, stop loss at 0.3128, target 0.3268; if volume breaks above 0.3245, chase long to 0.3315, stop loss 0.3189, keep position under 20%.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$KAITO#TSMC's Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are in the October 15 earnings report?
#TSMC's Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are in the October 15 earnings report? $KAITO 别再迷信“冷钱包到手就绝对安全”了，这次问题根本不在芯片。
据PANews报道，Ledger官方经销商遭供应链攻击，约9000万美元加密资产被盗。攻击者没有破解安全芯片，而是在物流环节植入硬件模块，窃取用户屏幕上显示的助记词；受害者助记词全部手写保存，冷存储的安全边界已从芯片被推到物流与经销商环节。
两个观察：一是这次冲击的是硬件钱包“助记词不触网”的核心信任，不是大盘方向；二是若只发公告不补物流链条，同类风险很难靠换品牌解决。收货核对防拆封、固件来源，大额资产考虑多签或分散存放更实际。后续看两点：Ledger是否公布受影响批次与经销商名单，是否给出可落地的渠道验证方案。
你更在意品牌口碑，还是更在意渠道验证和收货核验？