彪哥_
彪哥_
100U → 1000U ♻️ 交易就是循环复利，赚了继续滚，亏了重新来。 这里记录真实交易、行情判断和复盘。 欧易官方个人社区已开启👇 一起聊行情，一起找机会，一起循环复利。
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I entered a long position near 77300 on $BTC, and finally turned from floating loss to floating profit.
Now around 77800, based on the entry price, there's about a $500 price difference. Honestly, seeing it turn green feels good, but it's not time to celebrate yet.
Looking back at this trade, the price dropped to around 76360 after entry, which was indeed tough. Fortunately, I didn't panic buy on the dip or hastily overturn my judgment due to the floating loss.
Looking at the 1-hour chart now, the price has climbed back above the Bollinger middle band at 77318. The next resistance to watch is near 78188, then the previous high at 78831. There is a rebound, but whether it can continue to strengthen depends on subsequent support.
We can't ignore the news either. The US midterm election voting has ended, and the market is awaiting the results of congressional seats. The election could impact future US crypto regulations, especially the much-watched crypto market structure legislation; meanwhile, recent ETF outflows and confidence issues from the Binance security incident have not been fully digested. The current market is not just about technicals; once news breaks, volatility can increase at any time.
My current thinking is simple: 77300 is my cost basis, not the market support level. First, see if the middle band can hold, then observe if 78188 and 78831 can be gradually taken out. If the rebound weakens, I will protect profits and won’t get greedy just because I’ve just broken even.
Trading is quite interesting; floating losses test patience, floating profits test greed.
$BTC At this position, I'm getting in first.
The initial position is already entered; I’m not planning to go all in at once, nor am I in a hurry to prove I caught the bottom.
Looking at the 1-hour chart, it has fallen from 81944, rebounded near 78400 but was pushed down again, now hovering around 76900. The Bollinger middle band is near 77405, the lower band at 76439, and the price is still below the middle band, so it’s not exactly strong in the short term.
But what I want to bet on is whether support can form near the previous low at 76260, and whether there will be a decent recovery after this drop.
My plan is simple: start with a small position to test the waters. If it continues downward, I will add in batches within the pre-set range, not impulsively increasing position just because of one bearish candle. If the previous low is effectively broken, the original judgment needs to be reassessed, and position size and risk must not get out of control.
To be clear, this trade hasn’t yet played out.
I’m not afraid of buying a bit early; what I fear is being wrong on the direction and refusing to admit it.
At this position, do you think it’s a second test of the bottom after the drop, or the end of the rebound and a continuation of the search for the bottom?
The initial position is in; now let’s see how the market answers.
Woke up this morning to check the market, and $BTC is back around 77915.
Earlier it dipped as low as 77555, then quickly pulled back up. This kind of market is really exhausting. You say it's weak, but when it drops, someone steps in to buy; you say it's strong, but the high at 78207 hasn't been surpassed yet, and the 15-minute candlesticks keep tugging back and forth. Chasing in is easy to buy at the peak of short-term sentiment.
The biggest impact on the market these past two days is still the Binance security incident. The latest news is that Binance has resumed partial asset withdrawals, claiming about 95% of the stolen assets have been replenished. However, after resuming withdrawals, user fund outflows have clearly increased. Reuters reported that net outflows on Sunday once exceeded $3.5 billion, while Binance said the outflows are gradually returning to normal levels. In short, the situation is easing, but market confidence still needs time to recover.
Looking at the chart, the Bollinger middle band is around 77815, the upper band about 77970, and the lower band about 77661. The price has now climbed back above the middle band, so there seems to be a short-term rebound, but the resistance between 78000 and 78200 still needs to be overcome; below, first watch if the 77660 area can hold, then the low at 77555.
What I'm most conflicted about now is: I'm afraid of chasing longs at the tail end of the rebound, but also afraid that if I hesitate, it will break through directly. Having experienced sudden sharp drops, I realize sometimes making a little less profit isn't a big deal. The worst is being driven by market emotions—fearing missing out when it rises, rushing to bottom-fish when it falls.
This time, I'll focus on the levels first, not rush to guess the direction. Only after holding above 78200 will I talk about continuation of the rebound; if it falls below 77600, a reassessment is needed.
I've been a bit numb from the market turmoil these past couple of days. When the Binance security incident broke out, $BTC once dropped to over 76,000. Yesterday I was still worried it might continue to fall, but today it has slowly bounced back. The hardest part isn't the drop itself, but that right after it falls, you don't dare to buy; then when it rebounds, you start to fear missing out.
However, there's a new development this time: Binance's latest announcement states that the replenishment ratio of affected assets has reached 90%, and ten assets including BTC, ETH, and USDT now have 100% reserve coverage. Withdrawal services are planned to resume in phases today, with specific arrangements pending official confirmation. The news is somewhat easing the situation, but market confidence can't be restored instantly with just one announcement.
Looking at the 15-minute chart, BTC has rebounded from around 77,049 to 77,734 and is now oscillating around 77,500. The Bollinger middle band is near 77,529, the upper band around 77,639, and the lower band about 77,420. The price has just returned near the middle band; the area around 77,730 is the immediate resistance, while 77,420 and 77,050 are the key levels I will be watching closely.
Honestly, chasing longs now feels risky as it might be at the tail end of the rebound, but shorting directly is also scary in case the news eases and the price rallies further. Especially after experiencing such sudden volatility, the biggest fear is being anxious to recover losses mentally but having no plan in hand.
I'd rather wait for the price to establish a clear direction than force myself to catch every single candlestick and end up in a passive position. Missing out on some gains is no big deal; opening a reckless trade and then getting caught in back-and-forth moves is truly painful.
Is this wave a recovery rally after a black swan event, or just a breather in a downtrend?
This market really doesn't give people time to react.
ETH was still hovering around 2800 earlier, and in the blink of an eye, it crashed down to just above 2200. Looking at this big bearish candle on the daily chart, it's honestly scary. I used to think the hardest part in crypto was figuring out the direction, but now I realize that before you even get a chance to judge the direction, sudden news can already distort the market.
Once this security incident broke out, market sentiment clearly changed. Public reports say the incident involves an estimated asset impact of about $6.3 billion, with around $3 billion of assets currently frozen. They stated they will bear the related losses, but the investigation is still ongoing. With these numbers on the table, everyone's first reaction is definitely not to analyze the candlesticks, but to ask: Is my asset safe? Will the market continue to crash?
Looking at ETH's daily chart, the previous high of 2806.96 has fallen all the way down to around 2240. The 2256 level has already been broken through, and below that, around 2229 is the lower Bollinger Band. There might be a rebound here, but don't just think "it's almost bottomed out" because it dropped a few hundred points.
The biggest mistake in this kind of market is being too scared to move when it’s falling, then rushing to buy the dip at the slightest rebound, only to get hit by the next big bearish candle. Under the shock of news, technical levels aren't just invalidated—they might be directly broken by sentiment.
First, watch two things: whether the area around 2229 can hold, and whether the rebound can get back above 2256. If it can't hold, don't rush to guess the bottom; if it does get back, you still need to see if it can sustain.
Many people have made money in crypto, but those who can keep their rhythm in front of a black swan event might not be that many
Last night before going to bed, I saw BTC hovering around 81,000 and placed a long order. I thought if this level could hold steady, even a small rebound would be profitable. But when I woke up this morning, my position was gone.
BTC directly dropped to 78,233, and the current price is about 78,685. Before sleeping, I was wondering if I could catch a rebound, but when I woke up, I got a lesson: a filled order doesn’t mean you got a bargain; sometimes it just means you caught the first cut of the drop.
Looking at the 15-minute chart, the price has already fallen near the lower Bollinger Band. There is indeed a chance for a short-term rebound, but that doesn’t mean an immediate reversal. The resistance around 79,000 and 79,700 needs to be reclaimed first. To regain strength, it depends on whether it can hold above those levels. If the rebound lacks volume and the lows get broken again, bottom-fishing just because “it’s dropped so much it should rebound” is still risky.
The news isn’t reassuring either. Although the Fed is holding steady for now, two officials advocate for rate hikes, and weak tech stocks are dragging down risk assets. On the other hand, the US spot BTC ETF has seen net inflows for three consecutive days, totaling about $424 million, indicating there is still some buying interest. Right now, bullish and bearish signals are clashing, so no one should rush to conclusions.
My biggest takeaway this time is: don’t assume a price is the bottom just because it looks cheap. Before placing the order, I thought I was waiting for an opportunity; after it filled, I realized I might have just caught a falling knife.
