美股投资young
美股投资young
美股科技投资者 ai狂热者 分享每日快讯. all in ai
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I haven't done anything these past two days
Just occasionally open the app
I know it doesn't matter whether I look or not, and I don't want to look
But I just can't help looking
I don't understand what the Democratic Party means?
The last time there was such a single-day plunge at this level was during the 2020 pandemic
Terrifying, my 21st birthday is coming soon
Can I get a birthday present before my birthday?
$QQQ $SPY $SOXX
Please give me a break
Devastating Semiconductor Performance:
1 SanDisk, $SNDK: -66%
2 Arm Holdings, $ARM: -64%
3 Coinbase, $COIN: -63%
4 Nebius, $NBIS: -62%
5 Seagate, $STX: -60%
6 Marvell Technology, $MRVL: -59%
7 ServiceNow, $NOW: -57%
8 Oracle, $ORCL: -56%
9 AppLovin, $APP: -54%
10 Circle, $CRCL: -54%
11 Super Micro Computer, $SMCI: -51%
12 Micron, $MU: -48%
13 Dell, $DELL: -47%
14 SpaceX, $SPCX: -47%
15 Qualcomm, $QCOM: -43%
16 Broadcom, $AVGO: -41%
17 AMD, $AMD: -39%
18 Robinhood, $HOOD: -38%
19 Alphabet, $GOOGL: -32%
20 Tesla, $TSLA: -32%
21 Palantir, $PLTR: -28%
22 TSMC, $TSM: -28%
23 Meta, $META: -26%
24 CrowdStrike, $CRWD: -26%
25 Nvidia, $NVDA: -25%
The S&P 500 index has lost $4 trillion in market value since October 6.
The panic caused by political shocks will gradually subside, and AI demand still has support, but stock price recovery may be much slower than the cooling of sentiment.
This is my current retained judgment. This round has indeed lost quite a bit; this kind of market pressure is rarely seen in my experience. But the more uncomfortable it is, the less we can explain all the declines as political noise. The news hype will pass, and if approvals and project delays affect revenue, companies will need to use operating results to repair.
Demand still exists, and there is operating data as a basis. Microsoft's revenue grew 19% in the most recent quarter, and Azure grew 48%, at least indicating that customers are still paying for cloud services and computing power. But Azure includes multiple types of business, so we cannot directly infer that every chip company's orders are good, nor can we infer that stocks will rebound immediately.
The market is also weighing another matter: how much money needs to be invested to meet these demands, and how long it will take to recoup. Revenue is growing fast, but if capital expenditures grow even faster, and depreciation and financing costs continue to rise, the cash shareholders can receive may still be under pressure. The AI industry continues to develop, and related stocks may still experience valuation adjustments.
So going forward, I will separate political statements from operational changes. Whether the news cools down is one layer; whether customers cancel contracts, projects delay delivery, or management revises budgets is another. Only if the latter does not worsen is there reason to continue to hold the demand judgment; if actual damage occurs, the calculations must be redone.
Temporarily not adding semiconductors does not prevent continuing to be optimistic about AI. New funds will first study platforms like $MSFT and $GOOGL, which have more diverse revenue sources, but it is also necessary to check cash flow after investment and purchase price. Political sentiment cooling can wait; my own buying conditions cannot change with daily news.
Whether to buy after this major drop depends on whether the reasons for the decline have eased. A drop like in 2020 does not mean it will rebound at the same speed as in 2020.
The recovery in the latter half of March 2020 was supported by large-scale policy support and improved liquidity. Referring to that period, one should not only consider the severity of panic but also whether financing pressure has eased, the credit market is stable, and whether the rally is spreading. Price rebounds accompanied by these changes provide a stronger basis for phased buying.
The autumn of 2008 offers another reminder: a sharp rebound can occur after a big drop, but financial system pressures remain, and lower levels may still come. If financing remains difficult, companies cut budgets, and earnings forecasts continue to be revised downward, then waiting should continue. No matter how large the rebound, it cannot replace the resolution of these issues.
2022 is closer to a scenario of sustained repricing of interest rates and valuations. In such an environment, company businesses may still grow, but stocks could remain under pressure for a long time. The key is to recalculate valuations and check if earnings can be realized, rather than judging cheapness solely by past highs. The amount of increase needed to return to the original price is not directly related to the company's actual value.
In the AI industry chain, what to watch next remains cloud providers' capital expenditures, order fulfillment, DRAM and HBM prices, and long-term interest rates. A stable budget can only rule out some bad scenarios; it is also necessary to see if stock prices have already reflected the risks. If budgets and earnings are revised downward together, valuation assumptions need to be changed, and declines cannot be explained by sentiment alone.
Therefore, three sets of actions can be prepared in advance: gradual probing if financing and market trends improve; continue waiting if information is chaotic and lows keep refreshing; cut the parts of the earnings logic that no longer hold if it is impaired. The purpose of history is to prepare for every possible outcome. There is no need to bet on a single future now, nor to prove oneself right by going all-in once.
My current contract position with $QQQ is leveraged 10x. If QQQ drops another 4%, I'll basically be liquidated.
I bought after the market closed yesterday 🥲 I'm thinking if there's no strong rebound tomorrow, I definitely won't dare to hold through the weekend.
I'm just afraid that the exchange might do a spike over the weekend, then I'll really be devastated.
I never thought before that an index could fall like an individual stock on a normal day
I'm really a bit scared now with my 10x leverage on $QQQ; if it drops another 4%, I'll be liquidated
It's heartbreaking
What needs to be checked now is how many risks you have actually taken on. Buying five AI stocks does not mean you have diversified into five separate risks.
$NVDA, $MU, $SOXX, and $QQQ have different names but may all be affected simultaneously by cloud providers' capital expenditures, AI valuations, and long-term interest rates. The lesson from 2022 is that when interest rates are repriced, even good companies can fall together. Whether a company has a future and whether your account can withstand the current drawdown must be handled separately.
If you have positions, you can first do a stress test: assume these highly correlated holdings drop further together—will it affect your normal cash flow? Will it force you to sell at even lower prices? If the answer is yes, you should reduce your exposure first. How much to reduce depends on your tolerance; you don't have to wait until the industry is proven completely broken to cut positions.
If you have cash, don't just buy based on how much prices have dropped. The drop only determines if the price is attractive; it doesn't prove that profit expectations have stabilized. The first purchase can be small, and subsequent funds should have different trigger conditions: company guidance holds, industry prices stabilize, and stock price pullbacks no longer hit new lows. If these conditions aren't met, keep holding the cash.
You also need to set stop conditions for adding positions. If cloud providers officially cut procurement budgets, DRAM and HBM show sustained weakness, or the company lowers profit guidance, a revaluation is needed—you can't continue using pre-drop target prices. If only the stock price breaks lows but fundamentals remain unchanged, you can pause and wait for selling pressure and information to become clearer.
The recovery speeds in 2008, 2020, and 2022 were very different, and it's hard to accurately pick the scenario in advance. What you can control is not to amplify mistakes with leverage, not to force yourself to guess dates with short-term options, and not to allocate too much capital on the first purchase. Being bullish on AI can be a long-term judgment, but adding positions still requires current justification.
