Orbit: Crypto Community Feed

Today $BTC is still fluctuating around $63,000, with no clear directional breakout so far. After recent consecutive declines, short-term market sentiment is cautious, and weakened ETF demand has also limited the rebound strength. I am currently focusing on several levels: * 63,500–64,000: First resistance; only a clear rebound above this range counts as a definite stop to the decline. * 64,500–65,000: Core resistance; breaking through here is necessary to regain strength. * 66,000–66,800: Next target and a more important breakout zone. * 62,000–62,500: Current key support. * 60,000–61,000: Next important defense zone if 62,000 is breached. My judgment: The short-term trend remains weak, but the area around 63,000 is a critical support zone. If it holds steady here, BTC has a chance to first rebound and test 64,000, then challenge 65,000 again; if it breaks below 62,000 with volume, watch out for further support testing near 60,000. The most crucial thing now is not chasing the rally, but watching whether 62,000 can hold and whether 64,000 can be reclaimed. These two levels basically determine the direction for the next phase. #消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约

Top funds quietly hoarded 100 million HYPE On-chain data reveals a rather quiet move. Three wallets related to Multicoin currently hold about 1.777 million HYPE in total, valued at approximately $102 million at market price—real, solid money. No need to explain what Multicoin is; it's a leading fund well-known in the crypto circle and famously bearish on Solana. Some of the HYPE they held were previously transferred to Coinbase Prime and Galaxy's OTC desks, leading to market speculation about potential sell-offs. But so far, no one can confirm if those coins were actually sold. Moving into custody and OTC might just be shifting storage or gradually reducing positions—outsiders can't see through it. On-chain data only shows address activity, not the owner's intentions, which is easy to misinterpret. HYPE itself is the native token of Hyperliquid, one of the more recognizable altcoins in this cycle. Hyperliquid is currently one of the few on-chain perpetual exchanges generating real revenue. As the platform token, HYPE is not exactly the same as those altcoins purely pumped by hype. Institutions willing to bet heavily are partly attracted by this solid trading volume. Interestingly, there's a contrast in attitudes. On one side, retail investors in the community chase pumps and dumps, getting repeatedly harvested by fees and spikes; on the other, institutions hold their positions tightly. The big money plays patience, not speed. From another perspective, this $102 million on the market is itself a potential selling pressure hanging overhead. If dumped all at once, whether the market can absorb it is uncertain. But Multicoin's choice to keep holding at least shows that, in the eyes of these top funds, HYPE hasn't reached a price worth cashing out yet. Looking deeper, Multicoin has always favored high-performance public chains and derivatives narratives. From Solana to now heavy positions in HYPE, the logic is consistent. They are not short-term traders; their positions are often measured in quarters or even years. The holdings of such top funds serve as an alternative thermometer of market sentiment. Their inactivity means the current price hasn't hit the threshold to make smart money let go; their moves often precede any candlestick pattern. Retail watches minute charts, they watch quarterly charts. Some worry this is the calm before the storm. Multicoin's relationship with Hyperliquid is deeply intertwined, with holdings and ecosystem interests entangled. If they were to reduce positions, it wouldn't be with fanfare. Watching on-chain flows is more reliable than any trading signal. What small investors should really learn is not to copy anyone blindly but to clearly see who is genuinely holding and who is just making noise. Whether this 100 million is faith or a trap will be revealed by future unlocks and on-chain flows. Are you still holding HYPE now?

Why is it that the track with the strongest consensus ends up trapping the most people? EOS FIL PEPE BOME and many others, countless examples. When I first entered the crypto space, I always thought the stronger the consensus, the higher the certainty. Everyone was discussing public chains, AI, RWA, or some "king of the cycle," institutional reports were uniformly bullish, KOL target prices kept getting higher, and I thought buying in was just a matter of time before making money. Later I realized, the consensus itself isn’t wrong; the problem is that the price has already priced in the next several years. A story starts with a few people researching it, then the whole market knows about it, and early investors have already made tens of times profit; the "certainty" that latecomers hear is often exactly the liquidity needed by those holding the earlier chips. The project may still be excellent, and the ecosystem might continue to grow, but the buying price is too high. Any slowdown in growth, increase in unlocks, or capital rotation will trigger a valuation correction. In the last cycle, I also chased the so-called core tracks: the logic was still correct even during the bear market, but the coin price dropped 90%. Because the market never only rewards good stories; it also looks at chip cost, circulating supply, and new buying demand. So now when I encounter a target that everyone unanimously favors, I don’t first ask how excellent it is, but rather: how many people haven’t bought yet? Who will take the next baton? Remember: the best narrative isn’t necessarily the best trade; when everyone believes, what’s truly scarce may no longer be consensus, but the funds to take over the position.

The recent market performance of CORE leaves people somewhat speechless. The current price is about $0.0196, down 99.7% from its all-time high, and not far from the historical low set at the end of July. This position easily creates an illusion: It has already dropped this much, how much lower can it go? But the market has repeatedly taught me that a low price does not mean cheap, and a big drop does not automatically become a reason for a rebound. Core is still mainly focused on BTCFi, turning Bitcoin from a simple holding into an asset that can be staked, lent, and generate income. The 2026 roadmap finally emphasizes application revenue and CORE buybacks. The direction sounds fine, even more practical than continuing to shout about ecosystem and TVL. But buybacks in the roadmap and real money entering the market are two different things. What I want to see next is not how many projects have launched, but how much these applications have earned, how much CORE has been bought back, and whether real users are willing to stay. I’m not in a hurry to call a CORE reversal now, nor do I want to declare it hopeless. It has moved from the "storytelling stage" to the "homework submission stage." What truly saves the candlestick chart is never just a word like BTCFi. It’s revenue, buybacks, and sustained demand. $CORE #消费动能转弱，9月政策仍受通胀制约

🦉 Owls don't usually fly around looking for prey; instead, they perch quietly and listen patiently, striking only when they are absolutely sure, hitting the target with a single blow. Most losses in trading come from "frequent overtrading," not from lack of opportunity, but from inability to resist. A true trading master is like an owl: first observing the trend, then waiting for the signal, and only acting when the probability is high enough. This is not laziness, but the absolute discipline of "using stillness to control movement." $BTC

Struggles in the Hormuz Strait Agreement and Hidden Risks in Crude Oil: Will the Shadow of Macro Inflation Hit Bitcoin When the Market Opens Next Week? This weekend, global commodity and macro traders are closely watching the latest developments in the Middle East. The temporary navigation arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz has yet to be officially finalized, with significant disagreements remaining between the US and Iran over core terms such as shipping regulatory authority and sanction exemptions. Since the international crude oil futures market is closed over the weekend, this suddenly intensified geopolitical friction risk is completely sealed beneath the calm surface of the market closure, with the entire market holding its breath awaiting repricing when trading resumes on Monday. Many might wonder, what does the issue of Middle Eastern oil tankers have to do with the crypto space and Bitcoin? Frankly, there is an extremely critical macro liquidity transmission chain hidden here. The Strait of Hormuz controls nearly 20% of global seaborne crude oil flow. Once navigation is obstructed causing a sharp surge in oil prices, the first to ignite is the market’s inflation expectations. When oil prices rise, the already cooling US CPI data could easily see a secondary uptick. Renewed inflation expectations would instantly lock down the Federal Reserve’s rate cut space for the second half of the year, while the 10-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index would strongly rebound accordingly. For crypto assets, the underlying fuel for this round of Bitcoin’s rally largely depends on the global risk-free interest rate declining and the loosening of US dollar liquidity. Once energy inflation forces US Treasury yields to surge again, the discount rate for risk assets will be significantly raised, causing global hot money to flow back into the US dollar and high-yield government bonds, and the crypto market’s liquidity environment will immediately face a late-winter chill. More immediate pressure lies on miners: soaring crude oil prices directly push up global industrial electricity costs, worsening the already marginal profitability of Bitcoin mining companies post-halving, forcing miners to accelerate selling their BTC spot holdings to secure cash flow. However, historical experience shows that oil price surges purely triggered by geopolitical shocks often have strong short-term emotional disturbance characteristics. Seasoned traders will never blindly chase rises or falls based on sudden news on Sunday night but will closely monitor the real reactions of the 10-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index on Monday. As long as the macro interest rate anchor is not completely broken, the sharp drops caused by geopolitical panic often present excellent opportunities to gradually accumulate discounted, bloodied chips on the left side. Facing possible crude oil volatility and macro disturbances next week, would you typically choose to reduce positions and defend against risk, or treat it as a chance to buy core assets on dips? --- The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA. #霍尔木兹协议待落地，原油风险等待定价

When Good News Stops Moving Price This week feels strange. S&P is pushing toward 8,000. CPI came in supportive. ETF flows remain positive. Even the geopolitical backdrop is unusually quiet. Yet BTC is still stuck around $63K. ETH can barely hold the $1,900 area. That tells me the market isn’t short of good news. It’s short of conviction. The selling doesn’t look like panic from new investors. It looks more like older capital quietly taking chips off the table while liquidity is still available. Dormant BTC is waking up. Long-term holders are distributing into strength. ETFs are absorbing some of that supply, but not aggressively enough to create a breakout. That’s why price feels pinned. ETH looks even weaker. $1,850 is the level I’m watching, while $1,900 has turned into a serious wall. Selling pressure, staking-related supply and repeated arbitrage are slowly draining the fuel from buyers. So I’m not trying to force a trade here. BTC: $62.5K ETH: $1.85K Above those levels, I’d rather stay patient and watch for strength to return. If they break, discipline matters more than hope. In a market where good news can’t push price higher, survival comes before aggression. #WeakConsumptionFedSplit #SP500EarningsGap #BTCETFsVsLeverage $BTC $ETH

Trump and Musk recently gave the world a lesson 【How to repair a friendship between adults after a fallout?】 Last June, Musk and Trump took their words to an irreconcilable point Musk threw Epstein accusations on X, Trump threatened to cut government contracts for Musk's companies One accused the other of ingratitude, the other prepared to form a new party If this were an ordinary circle of friends, they would probably have deleted and blocked each other long ago, forcing mutual friends to take sides A year later, Musk sat on Trump's Air Force One during his visit to China They haven't returned to how things were, but they can cooperate again How was this relationship repaired? Adult relationship repair usually doesn't rely on a simple "sorry," but on both sides continuously showing goodwill In the second week after the public feud, with the mediation of Vice President JD Vance and White House Chief of Staff Suzie Wells Musk took the initiative to call Trump and then publicly admitted he had gone too far with some remarks What truly warmed the relationship Musk is prepared to invest at least $100 million in the Republican Party's midterm elections this year to help the party campaign in key states For Trump, no gift is more important than winning the midterms Adults rarely repair relationships through explanations; it’s more about concrete actions and continuously proving that cooperation benefits both parties more than conflict Adult friendships often exist not because of mutual liking, but because of mutual need