Bitcoin hasn't escaped any of the past four midterm elections.
In 2010, it retraced 72%. In 2014, 65%. In 2018, 52%. In 2022, 27%.
What's even more painful is Q4. In three of the past four midterm election years, Q4 posted negative returns — down 16.7% in 2014, 42% in 2018, and 14.75% in 2022.
Voting is on November 3rd, less than 10 days away.
It's not shameful to be anxious. The data is right here; ignoring it is self-deception.
In 2014, 2018, and 2022, the bear market lows all appeared after the election. The lows were 71, 38, and 13 days after election day in January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022, respectively.
What about this year?
The low was on July 1st at $57,850, 125 days before the election.
By October 22nd, the price had already rebounded to $81,455, about 40% up from the low.
The market has already priced in the "election bottom" early. Using the script of "bottom only after the election" now is applying the wrong timeline.
Ali Charts clearly states: around $73,000 is close to the average purchase cost of short-term holders. In an established bull market, deep pullbacks often find support around this level.
Coincidentally, Strategy holds 848,000 BTC at an average cost of $75,446.
Short-term holders' cost is $73,000, institutional cost is $75,446. Both figures cluster in the same range.
The real damage of the election curse isn't in the word "election" itself, but that it may act as a catalyst for the price to test the shared cost zone of $73,000–$75,000. If it falls there but doesn't break, the bull market continues; if it breaks, that's the real problem.
BTC's intraday low today was $79,146, already below $80,000, down about 2.7% in 24 hours.
The liquidation heatmap shows $80,000–$80,844 as a dense liquidation zone, with about $3.6 billion long positions near $79,000 below.
$80,000 is the first gate. $78,000 is the second. $73,000–$75,000 is the final gate testing the true strength.
CoinDesk's judgment is worth serious consideration: Bitcoin's midterm weakness reflects more its own market cycle than the election itself.
The election is just a date on the calendar. The cost zone is real money on the ledger.
Elections cause volatility; cost determines survival.
It can drop on November 3rd, but $73,000–$75,000 cannot be lost.
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