美股投资young
美股投资young
美股科技投资者 ai狂热者 分享每日快讯. all in ai
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If you don't want to continue betting on semiconductors, broad-based indices are more worth researching than looking for the next hot AI stock, but buying indices can still lead to losses.
$VTI covers large, mid, and small-cap U.S. companies, which can reduce the impact of earnings misses from individual companies. For those willing to bear the volatility of U.S. stocks long-term and who don't want to repeatedly guess which chip company will rebound first, it offers a simpler way to participate. The trade-off is that you won't hold only your favorite companies, nor avoid market-wide pullbacks.
You also need to look closely at its underlying holdings. Market-cap weighting means large tech companies remain important, so after buying VTI, you will still be affected by AI valuation adjustments. $QQQ has a higher concentration of growth stocks, so switching from chips to QQQ should not be understood as exiting AI risk. Having an extra ticker in your account doesn't necessarily mean more diversification.
If you are temporarily unwilling to increase overall stock volatility, then another type of tool is needed. $SGOV mainly holds U.S. Treasury bills with maturities of zero to three months, with returns closer to short-term interest and not dependent on how many chips companies can sell next quarter. It is suitable for research purposes to temporarily manage USD funds rather than participate in stock rebounds.
Short-term bonds also have their limitations. After rate cuts, reinvestment yields will decline, trading involves fees and spreads, and you need to check for deviations from net asset value when buying. If funds are ultimately used in other currencies, exchange rate fluctuations must also be borne. It has no deposit insurance and will not provide the same upside leverage during a stock market surge.
Therefore, if you are willing to bear equity risk long-term and want to reduce the burden of individual stock selection, you can consider gradually allocating to VTI; if you don't want to increase stock risk recently and your fund usage matches, you can consider SGOV. They solve different problems, so there is no need to forcibly pick a winner. Now, you should first decide what risks you are willing to bear, then decide which ticker to buy.
Temporarily bypassing semiconductors but still wanting to keep AI involved, I will first study $MSFT and $GOOGL, but I will not treat platform stocks as safe-haven assets.
The reason Microsoft makes the list is that its enterprise software, cloud services, and subscription businesses can collectively generate cash. The recent quarterly operating cash flow is about $58 billion, and after deducting approximately $39.4 billion in cash capital expenditures, about $18.6 billion remains. The existing business can support continuous investment, which provides a layer of operational foundation beyond simply waiting for future revenue realization.
This calculation still cannot be taken too lightly. Cash capital expenditures do not cover all new assets under finance leases, nor do they represent the company's entire infrastructure commitments. Server depreciation, energy costs, AI product charges, and customer usage efficiency will all affect subsequent returns. Microsoft is worth studying, but that does not mean any price is worth buying.
Google's appeal lies in search advertising and cloud business providing different revenue sources. However, the latest quarterly operating cash flow is about $42.3 billion, capital expenditures about $51.4 billion, resulting in negative free cash flow for the quarter. The growth of search and cloud needs to be tracked, and when investments convert into shareholder cash also requires equally serious attention.
Comparing the two companies, cash generation makes me currently more willing to observe Microsoft first; Google requires more selective scrutiny of investment returns and purchase price. Google's profits will also be affected by changes in investment valuations, so you cannot assume the main business is cheaper just because the apparent P/E ratio is low. Valuation must return to sustainable profits.
For specific buying points, I will wait until the price leaves room for growth requirements before considering phased purchases. If the business continues to deliver and valuations fall, the attractiveness of candidates will rise; if customer budgets or profit guidance weaken, assumptions must be recalculated. Platform stocks can reduce dependence on a single chip product but are still related to the AI investment cycle and cannot be used to achieve false diversification.
Temporarily avoiding semiconductors is a clearer choice for me after this round of pullback; demand still exists but does not justify immediate replenishment.
This round of losses is indeed hard to bear. The most common impulse is to want to return to the original losing position and quickly recover the losses. But where the money was lost in which industry has no necessary relation to where the next funds should be invested. What needs to be compared next are opportunities and risks; you can't let the thought of breaking even make decisions for you.
The difficulty with semiconductors lies in that demand must go through budgeting, procurement, delivery, and acceptance before turning into profit. The same data center investment means completely different things to suppliers depending on whether it is used for land, power, or servers. If the total budget is not cut but delivery is postponed, it may cause a quarter's performance to fall short of expectations.
Storage adds another layer of price and supply changes. Growth in DRAM and HBM demand does not mean that prices and profit margins of all products improve simultaneously. For companies like $MU and $NVDA, it is necessary to track their respective products, customers, and profit assumptions; you cannot cover all fulfillment stages with a single phrase like AI demand still exists.
This does not mean the above risks have fully materialized now. The reason for not buying temporarily is that I do not want to increase the same type of risk while information is still chaotic. To reconsider semiconductors, one must see key customer budgets confirmed, delivery expectations not further postponed, profit assumptions holding up, and valuations no longer demanding surprises every quarter.
If I want to keep AI exposure, I would first study platforms with software subscriptions, advertising, or enterprise customer bases. But switching to $MSFT or $GOOGL does not mean buying blindly either; they also bear capital expenditure and valuation risks. Avoiding semiconductors now is to reduce a layer of delivery and cycle judgment for myself, and it absolutely does not mean that changing a ticker can avoid all declines.
Panic is indeed a good time to buy the dip
For those with plenty of cash, the advice is still not to blindly buy the dip and avoid semiconductors
Semiconductors are still an unknown factor
If you really want to buy the dip, go for the index
Don't touch semiconductors anymore 😢 I really don't know what to say
Semiconductors are bleeding heavily
I haven't done anything these past two days
Just occasionally open the app
I know it doesn't matter whether I look or not, and I don't want to look
But I just can't help looking
I don't understand what the Democratic Party means?
The last time there was such a single-day plunge at this level was during the 2020 pandemic
Terrifying, my 21st birthday is coming soon
Can I get a birthday present before my birthday?
$QQQ $SPY $SOXX
Please give me a break
Devastating Semiconductor Performance:
1 SanDisk, $SNDK: -66%
2 Arm Holdings, $ARM: -64%
3 Coinbase, $COIN: -63%
4 Nebius, $NBIS: -62%
5 Seagate, $STX: -60%
6 Marvell Technology, $MRVL: -59%
7 ServiceNow, $NOW: -57%
8 Oracle, $ORCL: -56%
9 AppLovin, $APP: -54%
10 Circle, $CRCL: -54%
11 Super Micro Computer, $SMCI: -51%
12 Micron, $MU: -48%
13 Dell, $DELL: -47%
14 SpaceX, $SPCX: -47%
15 Qualcomm, $QCOM: -43%
16 Broadcom, $AVGO: -41%
17 AMD, $AMD: -39%
18 Robinhood, $HOOD: -38%
19 Alphabet, $GOOGL: -32%
20 Tesla, $TSLA: -32%
21 Palantir, $PLTR: -28%
22 TSMC, $TSM: -28%
23 Meta, $META: -26%
24 CrowdStrike, $CRWD: -26%
25 Nvidia, $NVDA: -25%
The S&P 500 index has lost $4 trillion in market value since October 6.
