OKX Macro Pulse
OKX Macro Pulse
聚焦全球宏观经济、政策动态及市场热点，持续关注可能影响加密市场的重要事件。
2Following
5.3Kfollowers
Feed
Livestream
Feed
The US October nonfarm payroll data was comprehensively better than expected. The private sector added 159,000 jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of 64,000, with the previous value revised up from 46,000. Overall nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, also significantly higher than the expected 65,000, with the previous value revised up from 29,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous 4.2%. Wage growth also strengthened, with average hourly earnings rising 3.1% year-on-year, higher than the expected 2.9%, and accelerating further from the previous 3%. This report shows a pattern of multiple employment market indicators improving simultaneously: the number of new jobs far exceeded expectations and the data for the previous two months were revised upward, indicating that the actual strength of labor demand was previously underestimated; the unemployment rate declined against expectations, showing that the labor market has not cooled as quickly as the market had feared. The acceleration in wage growth combined with the rebound in employment points to continued solid support for household income, providing a foundation for consumer spending. Regarding the monetary policy path, the simultaneous strengthening of employment and wage data means the labor market does not yet present an urgent reason to push for further easing. #NonfarmRevealedTonight, how will the market bet on December rate hikes after the US stock market plunge?
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for October recorded 55.5, higher than the market expectation of 54.6, exceeding expectations by 0.9 points, and up 1 point from the previous value of 54.5 in September. The index continues to operate above the 50-point threshold, exceeding it by 5.5 points, indicating ongoing expansion in manufacturing activity. Looking at the trend over recent months, the index was 53.3 in June, rose to 55.6 in July, then slightly declined for two consecutive months in August and September to 54.6 and 54.5 respectively. The October data ended the downward trend and rose again, just 0.1 points below the July high of 55.6, marking the second highest in the past four months. The data exceeded market expectations, showing that the momentum of manufacturing expansion has strengthened compared to the end of the third quarter.
The US core PCE price index rose 3.1% year-on-year in September, accelerating by 0.1 percentage points from the previous 3%, in line with market expectations. The overall PCE price index increased 3.6% year-on-year, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous 3.4%, also meeting expectations. As the Federal Reserve's most closely watched inflation indicator, the rebound in core PCE shows that underlying inflationary pressures excluding food and energy prices have not dissipated, while the broader PCE increase indicates that energy or food prices have contributed more to overall inflation. The simultaneous acceleration of both indicators, without deviating from market expectations, suggests a temporary halt in the downward trend of inflation, with the policy target still some distance away. This combination may lead the Federal Reserve to be more cautious when assessing the pace of future rate cuts, requiring observation of data in the coming months to determine whether this acceleration is a short-term disturbance or a trend reversal.
