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The over 200 million $XRP in the hacker's stash are still hanging without being dumped.
Take a look at the contract data, the long accounts are still holding 73% at the peak.
These guys are really just betting on the hacker showing mercy.
Just watch the Coinbase spot market and you'll understand.
The negative premium has directly smashed to a new low not seen in over half a year.
The buy orders below are as thin as paper.
There is basically no capital supporting this position, whoever wants to be the bag holder can go ahead.
Still expecting the main players to spend money to help you take the hacker's coins?
They're using the harshest bearish news to kill off the most stubborn retail investors.
#XRP
$XRP
👇$BTC Historically, after the three midterm elections, BTC always follows the same script: first it crashes into a big pit, then it shoots up to the sky without looking back.
From 2014 to 2022, it has hit every time; after the election, funds inevitably trigger a bullish surge.
But there's a market detail: the time for the bottom reversal gets shorter each time.
In the early years, it took over seventy days, but the last round only took 13 days to fully bottom out.
Now, there are ETF buy orders ready to catch the dip, and bears smashing down at this point are just stubbornly resisting, unable to shake out much space for deeper drops.
This fake drop and pullback is nothing more than big institutions rushing to grab low-priced chips.
Once the pit is filled, the main upward wave should start.
#BTC
$BTC
👇$WLFI
BTC rose 3%, WLFI fell 7.6%. This divergence is even more straightforward than the election results themselves.
At 23:00, 8.65 million tokens were dumped within an hour, dropping from 0.04947 to 0.04682, closing at 0.04779. Then four volumes of 5.58 million, 4.84 million, 2.5 million, and 1.02 million followed, each smaller than the last, with the price hovering at 0.0472.
Those who dumped have left, and no one has come to take over.
Positions have been fluctuating between 6.5 million and 7.5 million USD, basically unchanged. The fee rate is 0.005%, only half of the 0.01 benchmark. Contract trading volume in 24 hours is 36 million USD, while spot is only 5.5 million.
This is not the same kind of death as with TRUMP. That was shorts adding positions and fee rates turning negative; this is that leverage never came in, and spot holders are reducing their own holdings.
The Democratic Party is still pushing a market structure bill to restrict officials from participating in crypto businesses. The Trump family's projects happen to be right on this line.
The story has been told all year, but the election hurdle was not passed. I was still wondering at dawn if 80,000 could hold, and it did—BTC rose, the story fell, each going their own way.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $SNDK
03:27 There's a court document that almost no one shared. The Southern District of New York rejected CMA's request to suspend the temporary injunction on single-stock perpetual contracts, stating that the plaintiff couldn't demonstrate imminent harm, and instead believes the CFTC's claim of overreach has a chance of winning.
In other words: single-stock perpetuals can't be shut down in the US for now.
At the same time, the SNDK token is at 1033. Opened at 1111 in 24 hours, highest 1150, lowest 1016, down 7%.
What really made me pause is the open interest. Yesterday afternoon it was 115,000 contracts, now 137,000 contracts, nearly a 20% increase; the price dropped from 1130 downward. During the decline, no one fled, everyone was adding.
The rate is 0.0484%, nearly five times the benchmark, longs pay every 8 hours to hold on. At 00:00 the price dipped to 1016, and open interest increased by 8%.
I didn't take this position, watching it hurts their hands. The product's life is saved, but the token itself wasn't saved—two separate things.
At 03:00 the open interest was only 27,000 contracts, at 23:00 it was 240,000.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Both chambers of the U.S. Congress have flipped to blue, can $BTC hold 80,000?
According to the Associated Press, the Democratic Party has won the majority seats in both the House and Senate, flipping even the Senate seats in Texas and Kansas to blue. Trump remains in the White House, but the new Congress will be controlled by the Democrats.
On the chart, BTC surged to 81,200 before retreating near 80,000. The 15-minute candle that broke through 80,000 saw an OKX spot trading volume of about 61.71 million USDT. In the short term, I'm watching for a pullback to 80,000. If the 15-minute candle closes below 80,000, first see if it can recover.
#Bitcoin #USMidtermElections #ScalpingA whole pot of boiling oil was doused with a ladle of cold water in public—7.63% and 7.36%, the two big pots of Brent and WTI had their flames simultaneously snuffed out!
In the kitchen, this is called "stock losing its flavor." The Strait of Hormuz is like the main gas pipeline in the back kitchen; a few days ago, the valve was stuck, and the whole world thought the fire would be cut off tonight, with the oil price pot bubbling fiercely. Now, good news comes from the negotiation table—a hint of aroma saying the pipeline will be ventilated, so the flame was "whoosh" turned down, and Brent slid directly to $103.60 on November 3. It's like the guest just smelled the aroma and was ready to order more dishes, but you turn around and tell them the stove might be fixed—the soup is still the same soup, but the extra pinch of salt for the premium has been removed.
But don't rush to take the pot off the stove. Iran's message translated into kitchen talk is: "The dish can be served, but first settle the three debts I’m owed—lift the blockade, remove the sanctions, and unfreeze the assets." It's like telling a kitchen apprentice "almost ready," but the person is still in the parking lot. Qatar is running back and forth as the waiter, quite diligently, but no matter how fast the waiter runs, the dish isn't finished cooking yet. Trump is not planning to turn up the heat for a big stir-fry for now, but near Hormuz, a few drops of limited strikes have already splattered—there’s crackling in the pot, but the lid can’t be fully lifted.
What really determines the flavor are the doneness of three things: the soup base of negotiations, the open flame of military risk, and the actual shipping flow as the strainer. Whether the soup base is clear, the flame steady, and the strainer able to scoop up the cargo—that’s the key. Tokenized US stock assets like $xCOIN are the side dishes that change flavor with this pot of soup—the main dish moves, and all the seasonings have to be reweighed.
Speaking of weighing, I have to tap the prep table: leveraged contracts are that jar of extra spicy chili. The news is hot and cold; too much chili not only burns the stomach but also covers up the freshness of the main dish itself. Now this pot of soup is only suitable for slow simmering on low heat; anyone who tries to stir-fry fiercely to grab the pot’s aroma at this time will get splattered with oil drops and have to wipe their own face.
This old pot of crude oil soup has already been turned down to a low simmer, the flame is suppressed, but the embers in the stove are still glowing. #oilpricesfallover7%Bitcoin is currently trading around $80,137, attempting to recover after a recent pullback from the $81,000–$81,500 region. Price has moved back toward the short-term moving averages, but BTC is still facing resistance around $80,300–$80,450. The market is showing signs of stabilization after the recent decline. However, buyers need to reclaim the $81,000–$81,500 zone to strengthen the recovery. Holding above the $79,800 area is important to prevent further downside pressure. EMA Structure * 20 #AMDQ3DataCenterUp97% Democrats have flipped both chambers of
Congress in a historic sweep during the 2026 Midterm Elections, wresting the unified government away from President Donald Trump and the Republican Party. Driven by voter frustration over the high cost of living, rising economic pressures, and low presidential approval ratings, the election completely reshapes the balance of power in Washington for the final two years of Trump's presidency.#AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 The crypto market reversed sharply today: Bitcoin surged back above $80,000 in one go, reaching a high of $81,000, and Ethereum also rose to around $2,429. Yesterday, it was said that a rebound does not equal a reversal, but today the bulls crushed the bears, liquidating $380 million in short positions within an hour. After digesting the negative impact of the midterm elections, market sentiment has clearly warmed up. Additionally, House Democrats are still discussing expanding the crypto market structure bill to be pushed again in the next Congress. But don't forget, employment data is due on Friday; whether $80,000 can hold depends on the data. Think about your stop loss before chasing the price up, as volatility remains high—don't get carried away. Last night a fan asked me: "What if the Democrats win?" My answer was just four words: short first, then long.
Today’s deep V in $BTC basically followed this script. The drop was concentrated between 7:30 and 11:00, hitting a low of 75,738; after 11:15 it started to rally, now back near 78,400. This round of selling coincided closely with the midterm election results announcement—Democrats took both chambers, and the market first worried about renewed tightening of crypto regulations and the CLARITY Act becoming harder to advance, so it sold off.
But once the outcome became clear, the market began trading a different logic: Democratic control of Congress does not mean control of everything. Trump still holds executive power and veto rights, putting the US into a state of checks and balances between the White House and Congress. Crypto-friendly bills are harder to pass, but aggressive anti-crypto policies are also difficult to implement. The worst-case scenario was priced in, election uncertainty disappeared, and combined with BTC’s prior oversold condition, bottom-fishing funds and short covering together pulled the price back up.
"Short first, then long" is not a guess; it’s first trading panic, then trading the expectation gap. The market gave respect to this move today. $BTC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 This is not the opening move; it is the last long contemplation before the endgame: the employment report has yet to be played, and the timer for interest rate expectations is pressed down to the final second. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 55.5, surpassing the forecast of 54.7, but the price sub-index remains high at 75.2— the opponent displays material advantage in the midgame, yet within the formation lies a diagonal line that can be opened at any moment. The Federal Reserve holds interest rates at 3.75% to 4.00%, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index year-over-year is 3.1%, and the market prices about a 70% chance of a 25 basis point hike in December. The market appears calm, but every square is a constraint.
The employment report is the next forced move. The new job expectation is about 60,000, with unemployment steady at 4.2%. Do not treat 60,000 as an isolated pawn; it connects three major lines: Treasury bonds as the king’s wing, the dollar as the rook, and risk assets as the knights and bishops. If data is strong, interest rate expectations rise, the dollar makes the first move, and long-duration assets are forced to retreat; if data is weak, risk assets get a breather, but the price sub-index at 75.2 reminds you that the inflation endgame is far from over. A true grandmaster does not overturn the entire plan because of one pawn’s advance but calculates the coordination of pieces twenty moves ahead.
Tokens like $xORCL, representing US stocks, are like pinned bishops at this moment: nominally following US stocks but actually tethered by the macro mainline. When the interest rate path shifts, the valuation anchor wobbles; when the dollar tightens, risk appetite shrinks. The most dangerous thing in the midgame is not the opponent sacrificing pieces but mistaking bait for the main attack. If employment data only changes the one-month expectation, that is tactical noise; if it changes the slope of the interest rate path, that is a strategic shift. Position management is like the endgame: first secure the king’s safety, then discuss rook and bishop coordination; first confirm liquidity, then discuss attack routes.
The market is still waiting for the move at 13:30. Treasury moves first, the dollar presses next, and risk assets respond last in valuation; this transmission chain is the open line of the midgame. Whoever treats the 60,000 new jobs as the only coordinate will miscalculate along the price sub-index diagonal at 75.2. The layout phase focuses on expectation gaps, the midgame on forced moves, and the endgame on who still has coordinated pieces. The employment report is not a winning move; it only forces the opponent’s response onto the board; the true checkmate happens when the interest rate path and risk asset valuations simultaneously lose coordination. #USJobsReportInFocus $BTC $ETH $SNDK SanDisk's strategy directly given early Thursday!
1-hour level bottom probing and rebound, bottom support confirmed, go long directly at line 1033!
First target is 1080, take profit in batches at that level; if it holds, continue looking up to around 1110.
Set stop loss at previous low 1016; as long as the bottom structure is not broken, the rebound is not over. Be patient and hold on waiting for the next move.The radar echo looks beautiful: a strong echo unit of 865 million steadily presses over the forecasted landing area, but the readings in the rain gauge are wavering—the real deciding factor for whether this rain will fully fall, the moisture channel, is being choked by an invisible dry cold air.
Let's break down this Q3 sounding data into three layers.
The lower layer is the dynamic condition. On-chain transaction volume rose 49% quarter-over-quarter, this is convergence uplift near the surface, a solid warm and moist transport, indicating settlement demand is pouring into the low-pressure center, not a virtual value reversed by the model. For this layer, I give full marks.
Problems start in the middle layer. Revenue is 865 million, up 17% year-over-year, exceeding expectations; sustained operating net profit is 226 million, only up 5%. The rain is heavy, but the landing efficiency is discounted. The crux lies in reserve income: 658 million, down 8% year-over-year. The reserve asset yield is declining, equivalent to the cloud base continuously rising, moisture evaporates before condensing into raindrops. This type of income is typical "weather-dependent precipitation," extremely sensitive to interest rates; once the subtropical high retreats, the rain belt immediately shifts southward, with no room for negotiation.
The upper layer is artificial rain enhancement. The Arc chain token presale contributed 182 million, supporting most of the "other income" increase. The catalyst was launched, the echo immediately grew, but it’s not a monsoon. Writing the echo intensity of a single operation into the long-term climate state is bound to cause forecast errors.
Now look at the linked targets front. The essence of tokenized US stocks is to map Wall Street’s pressure field in real time onto the on-chain isobar lines; the coupling degree between the mapped targets and underlying assets depends on the pressure gradient between the two locations. When stablecoin settlement flow expands, on-chain liquidity acts like a low-altitude jet stream, delivering momentum to these mapped targets; but once reserve yields continue to decline and the issuer’s profit model is compressed, wind shear appears in the jet stream, amplifying deviation—not synchronous rises and falls, but violent oscillations.
There is another observation point that must be closely watched: transaction volume up 49%, reserve income down 8%, this divergence itself is a front. One side of the front is a warm zone telling stories through scale expansion, the other side is a cold zone living off interest spreads; once the front formation process completes, a clear weather turning point will occur.
The numerical model signals are very clear: dynamic conditions are strengthening, thermal conditions are weakening, the asynchrony between the two is the easiest setup for localized strong convection and the most likely to embarrass forecasters. The old rule at the station: don’t trust a single elevation angle when looking at echoes, don’t trust a single income item when looking at reports. The most glaring line in this sounding is the downward-bending 8% contour—it’s closer to the real weather than the 49%.On-chain records show that address 0xf081 liquidated long positions in BTC, HYPE, and ZEC within the last approximately six hours, realizing a loss of about $6.09 million; immediately afterward, it shifted to establish new long positions in ETH and HYPE: 14,583 ETH worth about $33 million, 117,871 HYPE worth about $9.9 million, totaling a nominal value of about $42.9 million, with ETH priced around $2,284.
The focus is not on the loss amount but on the fact that it did not choose to exit and wait but instead moved the risk exposure from the old assets to a new portfolio dominated by ETH and supported by HYPE, indicating continued betting on a rebound, just in a different direction.
The question is: can this portfolio rotation recover the $6.09 million loss, or will it be forced to cut positions again?
$ETH $HYPE Circle reported Q3 — and it beat: revenue and reserve income $865M, +17% YoY, vs ~$801.6M expected. The number I'm watching is USDC: average circulation $73.3B, +8% YoY, on-chain volume $13.9T, up 49%. But reserve income fell 8% to $658M, and $182M came from a one-off ARC presale. $BTC $80,286 holding the reclaim. If the core is still squeezing, does the stablecoin trade lose its shine? #Circle #USDC$BTC retraced to 79 today, I have a feeling it will go back. The Democrats took control of the two sessions, plus the previous crash was due to a hacker incident, followed by interest rate hikes. There probably aren't many long-term bulls left. There are too many negative factors ahead. It went from 64 to 87 and now down to 80, it feels like this is the top. The bullish rally was fast, but now it feels like as soon as there's a trigger, it will crash hard—not just a normal drop. I feel it will fall back to 72-76. Strategy is still buying BTC; corporate treasuries have not completely stopped
Strategy disclosed on November 2 that between October 26 and November 1, it increased its holdings by 811 BTC, investing about $65.5 million, with an average purchase price of approximately $80,846. As of November 1, the position reached 849,327 BTC.
This data does not align with the market narrative that "corporate treasury buying has disappeared." Although this purchase scale is lower than the 1,665 BTC bought in a week at the end of September, it is higher than the 267 and 250 BTC disclosed in the previous two weeks.
What I pay more attention to is the source of purchase funds, financing costs, and company cash reserves, rather than simply counting the number of BTC bought. Corporate treasury purchases are a long-term allocation behavior and may not immediately drive spot prices.
For $BTC, the next focus is whether ETFs and corporate treasuries form a combined demand. Different buyers operate on different rhythms, so one company's actions cannot represent the entire market.
#BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓 #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% Sentiment Scissor Difference: Large Holders Are Long, Retail Investors Are Swinging
The latest position snapshot shows that BTC, ETH, and CORE exhibit the same "scissor difference": top large holders lean long, while ordinary accounts swing between long and short.
BTC's overall long-short ratio is 1.0589, with longs at 51.43% versus shorts at 48.57%, showing only a slight bullish lead; after a slight price pullback, the short-term trend remains mainly sideways. ETH's overall long-short ratio is 0.9596, with shorts at 51.03% slightly outweighing longs at 48.97%, but top large holder accounts remain predominantly long, showing a stark contrast. CORE's overall long-short ratio is 0.9869, with shorts slightly leading at 50.33%, yet OKX accounts have a high proportion of longs; after a prolonged deep decline, even with news stimuli, sentiment has not truly recovered.
The core signal is not "who absolutely dominates," but "who is positioning contrarily": retail investors swing between long and short, while large holders cluster on the long side. BTC sentiment is slightly bullish, while ETH and CORE show retail bearishness and large holder bullishness. This split easily triggers back-and-forth order sweeps, increasing the probability of sideways movement; combined with external news disturbances, the risk of rapid price spikes is also rising. In the short term, chasing orders requires caution, with timing being more important than direction.
$BTC $ETH $CORE The 321 tons reported by central banks does not equal the publicly disclosed gold purchases of only 321 tons
According to data from the World Gold Council, central banks and official institutions' estimated gold purchases in Q3 were about 321 tons, but the publicly reported net purchases were only about 120 tons, with the unreported portion accounting for approximately 63% of the estimated demand.
This means the market's view of national-level gold purchase data is incomplete. Some institutions may not have disclosed in a timely manner, and research institutions need to estimate actual demand using other channels.
Therefore, analyzing central bank gold purchases cannot rely solely on how much a certain country bought in public news. Data scope, disclosure timing, and estimation methods are all important.
I will use this indicator to observe long-term gold reserve demand rather than short-term predictions. On-chain data for $BTC has similar issues; address activity does not equal the real number of users, so understanding the statistical scope is essential.
#全球央行Q3购金321吨，金价为何持续承压？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% Meta's capital expenditure this year is up to $145 billion, and the investment return cycle is worth watching
Meta's Q3 earnings forecast capital expenditure of $135 billion to $145 billion in 2026, mainly to support AI infrastructure and core business development. Meanwhile, the company's total debt as of September 30 is about $83.67 billion.
Capital expenditure and debt are not the same concept, but combined, investors naturally pay more attention to cash flow and the balance sheet.
If AI recommendation systems, advertising efficiency, and new product revenue can continue to improve, infrastructure investment may form a long-term competitive advantage; if revenue realization lags behind expenditure growth, financing costs will gradually become a pressure.
I will pay attention to Meta's subsequent advertising revenue, server utilization, and changes in capital expenditure. The $BTC market also needs to watch funding costs and not just focus on the growth story of the tech industry.
#Meta再发债150亿美元，融资成本上升 #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% $NEAR had a whale who dumped 2.48 million spot tokens directly at the 4.1 NEAR level, then immediately opened a short position after selling. A $10 million order was slammed right onto the buy side.
Just check the on-chain ledger and you'll understand: 13 million dollars worth of tokens were minted in a single month, while the promised buyback was only 1.9 million, and all of it is just sitting in the treasury without being burned. This is not deflation, it's like scooping water with a leaky ladle.
The faucet is wide open, spraying tokens wildly, and the small spot orders on the order book can't absorb this level of distribution plus net dilution. After dumping the spot tokens, the whale keeps pressing down with short positions. Although it looks like there's support below, the buy side has long been drained.
#NEAR
$NEAR
👇1 billion $XRP unlocked plus hacker dumping, any ordinary altcoin would have been wiped out by now.
But $XRP not only held firm, it even rallied 3% against the trend, and the spot inventory in exchanges is still shrinking.
Whales are clearly scooping up at the bottom, then moving directly to cold wallets.
The biggest bearish hit landed and yet no blood was seen; the shorts have played all their cards, what can they use to defend now?
#XRP
$XRP
👇#索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？
Baseline (Q1 FY26): Revenue flat (¥937.1 billion), operating profit ¥202 billion, up 37% year-on-year, profit surge mainly due to tariff refunds and exchange rate benefits; however, console sales declined, third-party software revenue weakened, and continued investment in next-gen consoles is required. PS5 installed base has exceeded 93 million units, with 125 million monthly active accounts, showing a solid user base.
• This quarter's expectations
✅ Positive catalysts: The biggest highlight is "GTA6," with the market expecting extremely high first-month sales, which will drive consoles, accessories, in-game purchases, and platform commissions; PS+ subscriptions, legacy game DLC, and cross-generation content continue to contribute stable cash flow.
❌ Drag factors: PS5 hardware sales decline year by year; next-gen console R&D and restructuring costs continue to eat into profits; if there is no major first-party exclusive this quarter, the software side may be weak.
◦ Market consensus: Slight revenue growth, profits likely to remain high but hard to replicate Q1's rapid growth; if GTA6 pre-sales exceed expectations, optimistic forecasts may rise after the earnings report; conversely, if pre-sales fall short, the sector may face pressure.
Summary outlook in one sentence
Games: High profits but heavily reliant on blockbuster titles. The key to Q2 earnings is GTA6 pre-sale data; without this hit, the gaming business is likely to be "stable but not explosive."
Music: The most stable cash cow with higher growth certainty than games, serving as Sony's defensive foundation.The most prominent floating profit short position in the contract market is still held under VBVIT.
Monitoring shows: This anonymous trader holds about 1376.07 BTC in 25x short positions, nominally about 104 million USD, with an average opening price of about 79,860.8 USD; the current floating profit is about 4.89 million USD, with an additional funding fee of about 426,000 USD. The total nominal account value is about 163 million USD, with shorts accounting for about 95%. At the time of writing, BTC is around 78,554 USD.
My judgment: The current price is only about 1,300 USD away from the average price, and with 25x leverage, this buffer is not thick. If he continues to be bearish, he may add shorts in batches below the average price, but this will increase the risk of a pullback; a more rational approach is to first close part of the position to lock in profits, thereby increasing the distance between the position and the liquidation price. Next, watch the 79,000 level: if BTC continues to be suppressed, he may continue to hold; if it rebounds to around 79,860, the shrinking floating profit will force him to reduce risk first. $BTC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 🔥 It's understandable that the market is celebrating as the US boots have landed, but don't forget that the Democratic Party has always advocated for strong AI regulation, so some emotional reaction in the US tech stocks is normal.
However, A-share tech stocks shouldn't dance along. The logic is simple: if the US really tightens AI regulation and slows down development, that is precisely our window of opportunity. The East rising and the West falling is not just a slogan, it's a structural opportunity.
Focus on the policy support strength and actual implementation progress of the domestic AI industry chain; this is the real source of alpha. Don't be misled by emotions.Democrats control both chambers, $BTC rebounds instead of falling: What might the bears have missed?
With Democrats taking both the House and Senate, Trump's fiscal and regulatory agenda for the next two years will face stronger constraints. Logically, policy uncertainty leans bearish, but BTC did not continue to decline; instead, it quickly pulled back from below $76,000, approaching $78,000 again.
The key is not just the "bad news priced in," but that capital is repricing: after the election results became clear, the dollar weakened and risk appetite warmed; on election day, BTC options saw large block trades with a nominal value of about $660 million, with bullish buys dominating, and short covering may have amplified the rebound.
Historically, BTC has risen about 53.7% on average in the 12 months following the last three midterm elections, but the sample size is too small to mechanically extrapolate this round.
My view: short-term blind shorting is not advisable; short positions near $79,488 must have clear invalidation conditions. Going forward, focus on ETF capital flows, the dollar index trend, and whether the price can hold key resistance. You can stick to your directional view, but don't stubbornly bear the risk.
$BTC
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权
#BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓 #美國期中選舉：民主黨贏得國會兩院控制權 Unexpectedly, it quickly rebounded to the previous consolidation range. BTC and ETH are struggling to break upward here, and it is highly likely that they will maintain a period of consolidation.SOL｜About $95.23: Weak oscillation this week, baseline observation range 93.5—98.5
Last night surged to 98.06, then retreated to 94.65 by early morning, the most significant pullback among the three. Current price is below the 10-day moving average of about 97.13 and also below the 20-day moving average of about 100.75.
Bullish shift: First reclaim 98—98.5, then see if the daily chart can hold 100—101; only after confirming the latter is there stronger support for a recovery to 103—104.
Bearish shift: If 93.5—94 breaks and fails to recover, be cautious of retesting 89.7—90.
There are two important test points this week: the US employment report at 21:30 on November 6 and the US CPI at 21:30 on November 10. Whether the above supports hold after data release is a better indicator of rebound sustainability than a brief surge before the release. ETH｜About $2,421: Weekly oscillation with an upward bias, focus on whether it can break through 2,500
Last night it surged to 2,448, currently still holding above 2,400, with a smaller pullback compared to SOL. Among the three, I am more optimistic about ETH continuing to test upward this week.
Strengthening: Support holds at 2,375—2,390 on pullbacks, then breaks through 2,445—2,450, expected to challenge the 50-day moving average near 2,500—2,510. Only after stabilizing on the daily chart will it be upgraded to a clearer uptrend.
Weakening: If 2,335—2,350 fails to hold, the rebound structure will significantly weaken, with the downside first looking at 2,300. BTC｜About 80,144: Weekly tendency to fluctuate between 78,000—82,000
After surging to 81,131 last night, it fell back and is currently holding near 80,000. The rebound brought the price back near the 20-day moving average, but the 50-day moving average around 81,900 above remains a resistance.
Bullish signal: Holding 79,500—80,000 and stabilizing above 81,800—82,000 on the daily chart provides a stronger basis to target 83,000—84,000.
Bearish signal: If it breaks below 78,000 and the rebound fails to recover, be cautious of retesting near 75,600.Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive basis for $BTC corresponds to a very small scale. The near-buy far-sell quote spread is +1.22%, with the first-level pairing scale about $113; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 1%. Under small capacity, impact will quickly eat up the spread.
The first-level positive basis for $ETH corresponds to a very small scale. The near-buy far-sell quote spread is +0.56%, with the first-level pairing scale about $2; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 0.02%. The smaller the capacity, the higher the impact ratio.
$SOL marked spread is positive, but the near-buy far-sell first-level quote is inverted. Near-month annualized +0.34%, far-month annualized +0.54%; marked near-far difference +0.19%, near-buy far-sell first-level quote spread -1.12%. The executable direction is opposite to the mark.Democrats sweep both chambers, crypto market dips first out of respect
With the midterm election results finalized, the Democrats have taken control of both the House and Senate. The previously hyped "crypto-friendly easing" expectations in the market were instantly discounted. BTC promptly broke below 76,000, ETH followed trembling, with no decent resistance visible on the price charts.
The logic is straightforward: regulatory hawks like Warren are about to take charge of the Banking Committee, and the CLARITY Act will basically be shelved until next year. Until the bill is passed, exchanges, stablecoins, and DeFi will all have to endure in a gray area. The market isn't afraid of bad news, but of no news — and that's exactly the current state.
In the midterm, BTC still depends on liquidity; how tightly the Fed turns the faucet is more tangible than who controls Capitol Hill. ETH depends on whether subsequent ETF and L2 narratives can withstand regulatory rhetoric, as the imagination for the application layer still exists, though short-term macro sentiment is pressing it down.
Operationally, don't chase news stubbornly. This crypto wave is priced on "uncertainty discount," and until that discount is repaired, any rebound is a window to reduce positions. Old coins like ZEC may occasionally jump, but don't take that as a trend signal.
In short: change of control in both chambers, bills stalled, liquidity depends on the Fed's mood, ETH depends on whether the ecosystem can self-sustain. Wait for the wind, don't wait for the knife to fall.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 Individual stock perpetual contracts were just approved, but industry organizations have already filed lawsuits
After the CFTC announced that individual stock perpetual futures can be traded on qualified markets, institutions such as Capital Markets Alliance filed lawsuits attempting to block the related authorization. Participants include industry forces supported by Cboe and Citadel Securities.
The controversy centers on whether these contracts should be regarded as security futures or possibly fall under the regulatory scope of other securities derivatives. The interpretation of regulatory authority may determine whether the product can expand smoothly in the future.
This reminds me that there is still a gap between policy announcements and legal implementation. Traders should not only focus on the positive statements from regulators but also pay attention to court procedures and subsequent rules.
The $BTC market has also experienced regulatory disputes in the past. The long-term direction may be compliance, but the short term will still be affected by lawsuits, approvals, and product restrictions.
#CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货 #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% #US Midterm Elections: Democrats Take Control of Both Houses of Congress
Brothers, the results are out, and the Democrats have taken control of both houses of Congress. Old Mo straight up says: this is definitely a midterm bearish signal for the crypto space.
Why? The Senate Banking Committee is very likely to be headed by Warren, who is famously known as an "anti-crypto hardliner." The CLARITY Act that everyone was hoping for is basically dead, and future regulatory crackdowns will only get harsher.
So why did Bitcoin violently surge to 81,199? This is the classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. Before the election, everyone feared a Democratic win and forcibly pushed the price down to 75,690. Now that the results are out and the bearish news is fully priced in, shorts are forced to cover, and combined with a short squeeze in the options market, it triggered a strong bullish candle.
But remember, after the emotional venting, we still have to face reality. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Previously, U.S. institutions wanting to trade perpetual contracts basically had to go through overseas channels. Now Coinbase Prime has opened the door.
According to PANews, Coinbase Prime is opening regulated global options and perpetual contract trading to institutional clients in the U.S. and other eligible regions. U.S. and global traders share the same liquidity pool, with market-making liquidity provided by Deribit. The initial coverage includes more than 20 assets such as BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, AVAX, and HYPE. Collateral support includes BTC, ETH, and USDC, with plans to expand further.
Observation 1: The inclusion of mainstream coins and high-volatility assets like HYPE in the initial list usually means deeper contract liquidity and incremental capital entering the institutional channel. Observation 2: The risk lies in whether U.S. institutions will actually deposit funds and generate trading volume, and that after the launch of perpetual contracts, the leverage crowding on the same batch of assets will increase, leading to more severe liquidations during sharp rises and falls.
Are you more focused on the mainstays like BTC and ETH in the initial list, or on more elastic assets like HYPE, AVAX, and XRP? The US stock market performed quite well, with AMD playing a major role.
AMD's Q3 data center revenue reached 8.546 billion, nearly doubling year-over-year. The Q4 guidance of 17 billion exceeded expectations, causing after-hours trading to surge over 9%. Nvidia followed with a 2.29% increase, reclaiming the global No.1 market cap spot from Apple. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, CoreWeave rose over 7%, and Oracle gained nearly 6%. But honestly, half of this rebound is just a recovery from the heavy October sell-off; the semiconductor index dropped 15% that month, so it's not entirely due to a sudden improvement in fundamentals. AMD's free cash flow actually looks poor, down 64% year-over-year, with inventory piling up nearly 3 billion. The market is currently choosing to focus on revenue guidance first.$BTC hovers around seventy-seven thousand dollars, $ETH stands above two thousand three hundred dollars, and $SOL is stuck at the ninety-three dollar mark — all three have slightly risen today, and voices shouting "the reversal is here" have started to emerge again. But breaking down this movement, it looks more like a technical correction after overselling rather than a reignition of the trend 🔥 First, look at the strongest evidence: the trading volume throughout the cycle has almost dried up. What does this mean? It means this upward move is not driven by new capital inflows but by short covering combined with a very thin layer of buying, which "lifted" the price. Volume is the fuel of the market; the fuel wasn't added, yet the vehicle moved, which itself is a warning sign. The second signal is hidden in the liquidation data. Most of the liquidations in the past few hours were shorts; in other words, the market is clearing out those who chased shorts at the lowest point. A typical feature of this "short squeeze" rebound is that it comes quickly but lacks sustainability because its driving force is stop-losses, not consensus. The third and most critical signal is the daily-level structure. None of the repair points have been fixed. Prices can deceive, volume can deceive, but structure will not. Until the daily framework gives a clear reversal signal, any rebound can only be defined as a rebound. So the current position is awkward: chasing longs is like catching a flying knife on a rebound; shorting at the top is like running into the barrel of a short squeeze. What is truly worth doing is waiting for the repair to be in place, waiting for volume and structure to simultaneously give clear signals, then placing bets. Impatience is never a reason to enter; patience is the scarcest position at this stage. OneNasdaq has approved the listing registration of Canary Staked INJ ETF, ticker INJC.
According to PANews, Nasdaq has approved the Form 8-A12B listing registration for Canary Staked INJ ETF (ticker INJC) under Canary Capital. The fund plans to stake at least 90% of INJ on the network, with BitGo as the custodian. It still requires the S-1 registration statement to become effective before it can be publicly traded. This is Injective's first staking ETF to receive a listing admission.
Opinion: If the compliance channel opens, staking operations may continuously lock up part of the circulating supply, providing medium-term buying support for INJ; however, short-term movements are more driven by sentiment catalysts, and real incremental funds will wait until the product officially launches.
Scenario 1: S-1 becomes effective and fundraising begins, with focus on whether the first-day scale and staking ratio can remain stable above 90%. Scenario 2: Listing is delayed or fundraising falls short of expectations, in which case the benefits of this small-cap ETF are easily quickly given back.
Are you more concerned about the timing of the S-1 effectiveness or the scale of the first-day fundraising? $RIOT
Miners are the leverage of BTC, but this statement is only half true tonight.
After RIOT's earnings report, it rose 16.6%, HUT fell 21%, and MARA only dropped 1.9%. BTC itself only rose 3.5% in 24 hours. The same sector, three different directions.
RIOT's rise is not from mining. It signed a 15-year lease with an unnamed cutting-edge AI lab for the Corsicana campus' 910MW, with an initial contract of $28 billion, two renewals fully exercised totaling $54 billion, and long-term data center contract revenue reported at $38 billion.
The cost is written in the earnings report: in the first nine months of this year, it sold 20,264 BTC, about $1.5 billion; in Q3 alone, it sold 10,599 BTC, 6.5 times the 1,637 BTC mined in the same period, with holdings dropping from 11,380 BTC to 2,418 BTC.
HUT's revenue declined and was pushed down 20% pre-market. MARA has no story, just follows BTC's movement. On OKX, RIOT perpetual positions are only $110,000, the 16% rise is thinly traded and ridiculous, don't use it as a sentiment indicator.
Now the pricing for miners is based on electricity and land, not computing power. Last year I was still calculating their shutdown price, but that calculation is now completely off.
#USMidtermElections: Democrats win control of both houses of Congress $ZEC
1352, the high point ZEC touched last night at 11 PM. Now at 1286, a 4.8% pullback in four hours, but still showing +6.3% over 24 hours.
The breaking news is still reporting that the NU7 upgrade activation is imminent, and ZEC reached 1313. 1313 was the price around 10 o'clock; those who chased in then are now underwater.
I'm watching open interest and volume. At 10 PM, open interest was $189 million, now $177.9 million, down by $11.5 million. One-hour trading volume shrank from 16.83 million contracts to 1.26 million contracts, down to one-thirteenth. The spike up is even stranger: price pushed higher, but open interest dropped by 3.49%.
The reduction in open interest during the spike strongly suggests short covering, not new longs taking over. The funding rate confirms this — it rose over six basis points, the upgrade is imminent, yet the perpetual funding rate is stuck at the 0.01% baseline, not a penny premium.
If someone were rushing to front-run NU7, the funding rate wouldn't be this quiet. I won't chase this structure; I'll wait for the upgrade to land and the corresponding K-line to appear before making a move.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #Sony Earnings Report Expectations: How Did the Gaming and Music Sectors Perform?
🚨 Two Bitcoin mining companies sold thousands of bitcoins to fund artificial intelligence projects
🔴 Riot (RIOT) sold 20,264 bitcoins this year to fund an AI data center and currently holds 2,418 bitcoins. HUT (HUT)$BTC 👀 Reviewing the $BTC trend after the U.S. midterm elections, both 2018 and 2022 indeed saw significant pullbacks, but directly applying those two cases to today is not rigorous.
The key difference lies in the price level: before the previous two pullbacks started, BTC was near its yearly low, with fragile sentiment and insufficient buffer; currently, BTC is about 33% above the yearly low, with different market cost, leverage, and position structures.
This does not mean the risk has disappeared, but rather that "a drop after the election" is not a fixed script. History can provide risk warnings but cannot replace judgment on current liquidity, capital conditions, and sentiment.
For $BTC, what deserves more attention is whether key support levels hold and if volume can cooperate, rather than just focusing on year-to-year comparisons. History can be reviewed, but trading must be based on the facts.
#U.S. Midterm Elections: Democrats win control of both chambers of Congress Strategy showed divergent signals in treasury operations last week
From October 26 to November 1, Strategy raised funds through a common stock issuance to purchase 811 BTC, spending about $65.5 million at an average price of $80,846, increasing its total holdings to 849,327 BTC.
However, in the same week, the company used about $208.2 million in cash to repurchase STRC preferred shares, an amount more than three times the expenditure on buying BTC, causing the USD cash reserve to drop sharply from about $242.4 million to about $132.7 million.
Institutional funding also showed weakness. The US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $27.4 million on November 3, marking three consecutive days of withdrawals, though this was significantly narrower than the approximately $398.6 million outflow on November 2, indicating a weakening outflow momentum.
Personal judgment: Strategy's moves this week lean more towards optimizing the preferred stock liabilities rather than simply increasing long positions, so it is not advisable to view this as a basis for trend-based long positions in the short term.
On the market, BTC in the Asian morning session fell under pressure from around 78,000, currently trading near 77,000, with a 24-hour high-low range of about 78,049/76,360 and a funding rate of about 0.01%.
Short-term focus is on the 76,800 support level, which was tested multiple times in the morning session; if it breaks down effectively, consider reducing positions. The first resistance is at 77,500, and only after stabilizing above this can the target of 78,000 be considered. Stop loss is set below 76,500, with a target temporarily at 78,000, maintaining a light position.WLD, TAO, and RENDER all fell about 4%–5% today, with declines exceeding 12% over the past 7 days. There has been no significant capital inflow into the AI sector; the directions with deeper prior declines are even harder to form effective rebounds.
$WLD is currently around $0.37, down more than 14% in the past 7 days. $0.36–0.366 is the first support, with resistance at $0.385–0.39 above. Only by stabilizing above $0.40 can the structure improve; falling below $0.36 risks further testing $0.34.
$TAO is currently around $220, down about 12.4% in the past 7 days. $218–220 is the initial support, with resistance at $228–232 above. Breaking through $235 can expand recovery; losing $218 risks further testing $210. TAO has been relatively resilient recently but remains weak in the short term.
$RENDER is currently around $1.48, down about 13.5% in the past 7 days. $1.46–1.48 is the first support, with resistance at $1.54–1.57 above. Only by stabilizing above $1.60 can the structure improve; falling below $1.45 risks further decline. RENDER has not yet shown clear signs of bottoming out.ETF outflows and institutional slowdown have not stopped the bearish voices, but BTC has already reclaimed $80,000! (The bulls never give up
On October 30 and November 2, the US spot BTC ETF saw a cumulative net outflow of about $1.042 billion, and corporate treasury accumulation also slowed down.
Although ETF outflows narrowed afterward, the market still believed buying power was insufficient and the rebound lacked sustained capital support.
However,
from November 4 to 5, the market gave a different answer. As the US midterm election results became clearer and political uncertainty faded, the crypto market began to recover.
Especially today, BTC has reclaimed $80,000, ETH rebounded from over $2,200 to above $2,400, showing particularly strong performance.
In contrast, SOL’s gains lagged noticeably (this time it’s somewhat falling behind the pack, let’s criticize it once more
BTC: $80,396, +3.52%
ETH: $2,431, +5.77%
SOL: $96.94, +3.55%
The current sense of division is becoming more obvious: ETF funds are flowing out, yet prices are recovering;
BTC holds above $80,000,
ETH leads the gains,
SOL lags behind relatively.
The bearish voices might want to quiet down for a while. Outflows don’t necessarily mean the market can only go down,
now it depends on whether this recovery can be sustained
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC spot ETF outflows, corporate treasury accumulation slows down $APR Regarding this coin, I have been continuously following it for nearly half a year. Recently, on-chain transaction volume showed that the whale was accumulating for two days with increased volume. After a recent spike and pullback, the current price is at the whale's previous accumulation cost zone. I believe going long here offers a much better risk-reward ratio than going short, so it's worth taking a chance.This building has no load-bearing walls, yet it plans to add three more floors. $DOGE has surged 5.43% in 24 hours. From a structural review perspective, this looks more like a facade renovation rather than a main structure elevation.
First, let's look at the constraints of the enclosure structure. Within the short-term Bollinger Bands, the price has already reached 72% of the band range, with only 1.0% of clearance left before hitting the upper band, while downward there is still a 2.6% retracement buffer. The mid-term is even more extreme. The price stands at 92% of the band range, only 0.7% from the upper band, but 8.4% away from the lower band. This is equivalent to pushing the building's footprint to the cantilever limit, then fully loading the eaves with materials. The floor height seems sufficient, but the load path is missing.
Next, look at the stress indicators. The one-hour RSI has crossed the critical line of 64, the short-term value is 67.9, while the long-term RSI is only 50.3. The two curves differ by nearly 18 points. This is a typical "upper structure is moving, foundation is not." The short-term momentum is supported by scaffolding, but the long-term foundation has not caught up at all. Such a node on the blueprint requires a re-calculation of the load transfer path.
So my judgment is clear: this is high-altitude work, not foundation construction. The signal direction given is downward correction, and I will not chase longs at the cantilever end; I will wait for the price to be pushed to a temporary support level before placing short orders.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.0724 (current price +3.4%)
Take Profit 1: 0.0666 (-4.9%)
Take Profit 2: 0.0646 (-7.7%)
Stop Loss: 0.0800 (current price +14.3%)
Take Profit 1 is near the short-term lower band. That is the first place with real concrete. Take Profit 2 reaches the mid-term 8.4% buffer zone. The stop loss is set at a 14.3% height because although this building has no load-bearing walls, the short-term wind load can still push the price through the 1% upper band margin. The budget must be sufficient; the safety factor must never be compressed to one.
Whether a project is worth holding long-term is never judged by how lively the renderings are. It is judged by how many retracements it can withstand without collapsing.$HYPE price is still wobbling upwards, but when you check on-chain, the largest external holder is dumping tokens to the exchange every day. They sold $15 million in five days and still have a few million tokens untouched. The buyback funds used to support the price are not even a fraction of what they unlocked, so the buy side simply can't handle this volume. Everyone thinks it's a short squeeze, but the main players have already pocketed the cash.
#HYPE
$HYPE
👇Trump said in one sentence, "We have done our best," basically declaring the overall situation settled.
What does it mean? The control of Congress is lost, and the previously hyped crypto-friendly bills and crypto capital plans are directly blocked and hard to advance.
The Democrats took both the House and Senate, a rare big win in forty years, but the biggest risk for the crypto circle is not the bills being stuck. The biggest fear is sudden geopolitical news after election losses. Once news of Middle East military action breaks out, it will cause a double-sided spike, killing both bulls and bears, and no one can escape.
The market has already priced in pessimistic expectations in advance, with Bitcoin showing a daily bearish pattern, ETFs continuously seeing outflows, and $ETH ETFs bleeding longer, making its rebound inherently weaker than $BTC. Those who have recently doubled their gains are advised to take profits first and not chase the tail-end rally.
All current market moves are expectation games; only after the election is fully settled will a true trend emerge.
Going forward, focus on $SPCX as it is the leading signal of this round of risk asset sentiment. If you have no direction, visit the homepage study group for operational ideas.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The most fragile link last night was actually the close position button I didn't press in time after drinking too much. Have you ever had that moment of "I wanted to run, but fate took the position for me"? Waking up to see the position still there, the first reaction isn't relief, but a tight feeling in the chest. BTC opened at 79432.1, current price 76609.8, unrealized loss 300.27U, ROI -355.29%. With 100x leverage, every small bullish candle feels like testing my margin bottom line; SOL slid from 95.79 to 91.37, unrealized loss 63.33U, ROI -92.28%. In weak consolidation, the most frustrating thing isn't the drop, but the repeated hope given and then taken away; only ETH moved from 2243.35 to 2253.65, unrealized profit 6.1U, ROI +9.18%, small like a candy, but the only position that didn't make me frown. What really deserves discussion here isn't the "drinking caused trouble" joke, but that high leverage compresses risk management's margin for error to almost zero. 100x means a 1% adverse price move nearly wipes out the principal. The so-called "margin ratio still safe" is just temporary breathing room, not a safety cushion. More hidden is the psychological aspect: when three positions are open simultaneously, people automatically enter a "wait for rebound before exiting" mode, alternating between FOMO and hesitation, narrative fatigue follows, and in the end, it's not the market that defeats you, but your own monitoring rhythm that wears you down. The bullish path isn't impossible either: if BTC holds the current range, and ETH shows relative resistance to decline...