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"Not hitting the stop loss, but possibly exiting because of waiting too long," Ansem talks about Bitcoin short-term trading, and what I care about most is this detail. It feels quite familiar from the last cycle: the short-term logic delays execution, but the discussion slowly turns into long-term belief.
What makes this time a bit different for me is that he also treats time as a condition to test the logic, rather than just focusing on price. My judgment is that this is more valuable than guessing the next candlestick. Since the bet is on quick fluctuations, a prolonged lack of movement means the original judgment needs reevaluation; but this does not mean that sideways movement is negative, nor can it be directly applied to long-term holding.
Looking at it in terms of cycles, I prefer to treat this as a topic of trading discipline, not a signal of market reversal. Do veteran players have the same familiarity: originally looking at the short term, but after waiting, switching to the long term? Do you set a verification deadline for your judgment in advance?"Negative news lands! The underlying logic behind Bithumb delisting CORE: Reward anomaly risks fail to dispel exchange concerns
South Korea's second-largest exchange Bithumb officially announced the delisting of CORE, rooted in the validator block reward anomaly incident on the Core chain at the end of August: a few validator nodes received block rewards far exceeding the protocol's preset rules, triggering platform security concerns. Bithumb immediately suspended CORE deposits and withdrawals, marked it as a trading warning asset, and initiated a lengthy evaluation period.
The exchange gave the project team ample time to explain, but the explanations submitted by Core never fully alleviated the platform's concerns about the on-chain anomaly risks. After multiple rounds of extended evaluation, Bithumb determined that CORE no longer met the continuous listing standards and ultimately decided to delist it.
A dramatically timed conflict: shortly before the delisting news broke, Core had just officially announced the completion of block production rights transfer and the exit of core contributors from the DAO, fully promoting the milestone of decentralization transformation. The positive narrative strongly countered the negative impact of delisting by a leading exchange.
From a market perspective, Bithumb is the core Korean won trading hub in South Korea. The delisting will directly reduce CORE's liquidity and retail exposure in Korea, putting short-term sentiment under pressure. It is important to clarify: exchange delisting does not mean the Core public chain stops operating; the on-chain network continues to run normally. The market will focus on whether other leading exchanges will follow suit and reassess the risks of listing CORE.#Palantir财报前瞻：Can high growth support a high valuation? Q3 revenue guidance is 2.16 billion, up over 80% year-over-year. The market has already priced in AIP's commercial ramp-up and government contract renewals — 150x PE, 70x 2027 free cash flow, with zero margin for error.
The real issue isn't this quarter's numbers: The base for US commercial growth keeps getting higher, customer count quarter-over-quarter dropped from 42% to 35%, and the Bootcamp customer acquisition bonus is fading; Q3 also has to bear upfront recruiting season costs, so even if the profit margin looks good, it carries a bit of a "one-time operating leverage" flavor. Government orders are stable, but essentially it's still a defense budget cycle stock, which can't support a pure SaaS premium.
More troublesome is the narrative: AIP has moved from "stunning" to "delivery phase." The market doesn't want another 90% increase; it wants net retention, per-customer payment, and nonlinear expansion of commercial customers all accelerating simultaneously. Missing one means a valuation cut due to "AI implementation peaking," not a performance cut.
So as long as the earnings report doesn't deliver the "triple combo" of "beat expectations + raise guidance + commercial breakthrough," the high level means all good news is priced in. The money printer hasn't stopped, but the stock price is buying "forever acceleration," which physical laws do not allow.
Conclusion: Good company, bad entry point. On earnings night, don't bet on beating expectations; bet on how "perfect pricing" cracks.$ZEC
This morning I saw the Winklevoss brothers publicly calling to dissolve the ZEC grants committee, and some people said that privacy coin governance is about to collapse. I think they are criticizing the wrong thing; the real risk is the NU7 upgrade on November 5. There are still 22,263.34 ZEC lying dormant in the old Sprout pool on-chain, worth over 28 million USD at the current price. Once the upgrade activates, these will be permanently locked and unrecoverable. The official statement says it won't affect the total supply, but having so many coins untouched for five or six years, with their owners completely inactive, is itself a signal. I just tested it: ZEC is hovering around 1260 now, with a 24-hour low of 1207, and the fee rate is still positive at 0.01%. Before the upgrade, the key move to watch is where the old coins are moving, not the short-term price direction.
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 Objectively speaking from the market perspective, the AI sector is accelerating its bottoming process, while pharmaceuticals and energy are accelerating toward their peaks. During the broad asset sell-off, gold did not serve as a safe-haven asset; only oil and U.S. Treasuries saw capital inflows.
This indicates liquidity is weak, with even gold being sold off. Is the plan to push people into U.S. Treasuries? #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 The iPhone revenue is supported by Pro price increases and stockpiling, but shipments are not actually that strong; service growth continues to decline, and the high-margin engine is starting to show signs of aging; rising memory and advanced process costs are eating into gross margins from the cost side, with Q4 guidance below 12% growth. The market wants "acceleration," and failure to deliver means disappointment.
More critically, AI—Apple Intelligence—is still catching up. Siri restructuring, on-device models, and cloud-side cooperation have yet to produce a payable closed loop. Hardware sells well, but valuation premiums rely on the "services + AI second curve," which currently has neither volume growth nor pricing power.
So, although revenue and profit still look okay, core EPS excluding one-time tariff refunds offers no surprises. High pricing embeds growth for the next two years; a financial report that merely "meets expectations" is effectively "below expectations."
Conclusion: The cash machine is still running, but the story shifts from "growth stock" back to "cash cow." Valuation will be cut by half first, waiting for Q1 guidance and AI monetization models to materialize before reconsidering.The rumor about Binance is just a "matchstick," but the kindling for ETH was already piled up 7 days ago.
Many attribute the drop on October 30th to the rumor of "Binance suspected of being hacked." On-chain monitoring showed Binance's hot wallet transferring assets worth between 2 to 2.5 billion dollars, with traces involving Tornado Cash funding. The total futures liquidations across the network were about 659 million dollars, with long positions accounting for nearly 87%, and ETH liquidations about 192 million dollars.
But if you attribute ETH's decline entirely to this rumor, you miss the truly important point.
Gate's analysis pointed out a crucial fact: before the Binance incident entered public view, the ETH/BTC exchange rate had already slipped from 0.0319 to around 0.0291, a drop of about 13% on the 30th, while BTC's decline during the same period was less than 5%.
ETH's weakness is not "dragged down by Binance." ETH's weakness "had already taken shape before the Binance incident."
When risk appetite contracts, capital prioritizes BTC as the "last stronghold," while ETH is classified as a "high Beta asset" and is the first to be reduced. The Binance rumor was just throwing a match onto a pile of kindling that had already been doused with oil.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #加密行业协同守护资产安全 #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ What does Circle rely on to make money? It is essentially an issuer of "digital dollars." You exchange real money for USDC, and it uses your money to buy U.S. Treasury bonds to earn interest. So, whether its financial report looks good depends entirely on the scale of USDC issuance and how much interest it earns. The market is currently most concerned that while its scale has expanded, whether the payment business is profitable and if distribution costs have been reduced. The probabilities of "exceeding expectations" and "falling short of expectations" are 50 to 51, almost a toss-up. The tokenized stock CRCL also slightly declined on the market, indicating extreme hesitation among investors. Personal view from Pony Ma: This financial report has a very critical hidden risk. Although the circulation scale of USDC has increased by 25%, its reserve income has only increased by 5%! Why? Because profits are tightly bound to reserve interest rates. The Federal Reserve is stubbornly maintaining high interest rates, so theoretically, interest income should be booming. But if Circle has paid a large amount of "pass-through fees" to platforms for new user acquisition and distribution, profits will be severely squeezed. It's like running a big mall with lots of foot traffic, but giving too high rebates to channel partners, leaving very little profit in your own pocket. Moreover, if the Federal Reserve really cuts interest rates in the future, its "passive income" model from interest will immediately face serious doubts. What impact does this have? In the short term, this is a liquidity indicator. USDC is an important source of liquidity in our market. If the financial report shows that the USDC scale is still growing rapidly, it means When I saw this message, the first thought that came to mind was: Is the large capital reducing risk, or just adjusting positions? When there is no clear direction in macro liquidity, I am more afraid of misinterpreting partial redemptions as a full-scale withdrawal.
According to SoSoValue data, on October 30th Eastern Time, the US $SOL spot ETF had a net outflow of $10.742 million, with BSOL outflowing $9.2561 million. However, its historical cumulative net inflow still stands at $1.123 billion.
My inclination is that this looks more like a localized cooling on the allocation side, not enough to define a shift in institutional sentiment: the outflow is mainly concentrated in one product, and the historical cumulative net inflow has not been erased by this single day. My speculation is that if the US dollar strengthens, liquidity tightens, and redemptions spread to more products, then the macro risk-off explanation would be more convincing. Right now, what are people most concerned about: the US dollar trend, US Treasury yields, or rate cut expectations? Which is most likely to affect this type of capital?Seeing Curve's trading volume drop by half in one day, the first reaction is "It's over, something's wrong," right? I thought so at first too, 847 million down to 425 million, the numbers are indeed intimidating.
But looking further down made me laugh: 425 million is still more than 3 times the average of the past seven days. It's like a store selling 80,000 yesterday and 40,000 today, you worry it's going bankrupt, but normally it only sells a bit over 10,000 a day.
3pool is even more interesting, the volume shrank to just a quarter, but the USDT in the pool actually decreased, while DAI and USDC increased. Someone exchanged USDT out, just not as aggressively as before.The heat has cooled down, but not completely. $CRV's trading volume dropped from $847 million to $425 million in one day. Looking at this number alone, the conclusion easily becomes "the heat is over." But there's another half to the same data: $425 million is still 335% higher than the median of the past seven days. This is not a fall back to the ground, but a drop from extremely hot to very hot.
What really matters is where the money is moving. On the same day, Ethereum 3pool's trading volume was $82.14 million, down sharply from $343 million the previous day. But the balance direction is the opposite: USDT dropped from about 121 million to 113 million, DAI rose to about 24.25 million, and USDC rose to about 24.56 million.
This indicates that USDT's share in 3pool dropped from 74.8% to 69.8%. The deviation in stablecoin pool share shows that someone is exchanging USDT out, and the one-way squeeze is weakening.
Mechanically, 3pool is the main channel for stablecoin swaps. When one stablecoin's share is too high, the market-making price tends to swap it out, and arbitrageurs keep moving it until the spread converges. Volume shrinkage often doesn't mean people have left, but that the price difference has been eaten up.
My judgment: this round of volume peak has passed, but the baseline level has been raised, and the weekly average volume more than tripled will not disappear overnight. We need to watch whether USDT's share will continue to decline.
A question to leave: when the pullback mainly comes from the disappearance of arbitrage space, what will the next wave rely on? $BTC is currently at 77173.2, down 0.16% in 6 hours.
$ETH is currently at 2238.89, down 0.20% in 6 hours, down 0.38% in 24 hours, with a low of 2235.0 and a high of 2250.82.
Both weakened simultaneously, mainly due to the overnight US stock market "Black Friday": the Nasdaq 100 once dropped 4.5% intraday, and risk appetite contraction transmitted to crypto.
The funding side is also bearish; BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of about 5250 coins the previous day, combined with Fed's Logan turning hawkish saying an additional cumulative 50 basis points rate hike is needed, putting macro liquidity expectations under pressure.
From a technical perspective, BTC's short-term support is at the 77000 round number; breaking below looks toward 76500; resistance is above 77600. ETH support is at 2235, resistance at 2250, with intraday volatility narrowing and direction to be chosen.
Operation advice: In the crypto sector, closely watch $BTC's 77000 level; do not chase rebounds on a break, wait to retake 77600 before discussing strengthening.
The market will not reward those who buy at the lowest point, only those who can withstand volatility and see the direction clearly.
This is only a personal review record and does not constitute any investment advice. The market has risks; operate cautiously.
#BTC财库优先股融资升温 🔥On-chain data this time shows that a giant whale holds short positions simultaneously in BTC, ETH, and SOL, with a total position of about $650 million. The position size is considerable, and the strategy is not simply a bet on a one-sided decline.
📌BTC uses 5x full margin, holding 2,319.6 coins, with an unrealized loss of $693,100, but has already collected $3,375,200 in funding fees; ETH uses 5x full margin, holding 100,000 coins, currently with an unrealized profit of $8,602,800, and funding fee income of $4,332,700; SOL uses 7x full margin, holding 696,100 coins, with an unrealized loss of $698,400, and funding fee income of $3,899,700. The total funding fees from these three positions exceed $11.6 million.
⚠️This indicates that funding fees can indeed offset holding costs and book losses to some extent, but they should not be understood as a permanent safety cushion. Funding rates may reverse, and the market could suddenly surge. Full margin leverage still carries risks. Especially for large positions, the impact of price fluctuations cannot be judged solely by current unrealized losses.
If the market continues to rebound today, will these short positions adjust? Do you think the whale is patiently collecting funding fees or waiting for a better opportunity to close positions? #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 Weekend thick buy orders, just take a look
This weekend's market, I watched the order book for a long time, and the more I looked, the less I trusted it.
$BTC 77236, there are a bunch of long orders stacked around 75800 below, looking quite thick, as if someone is protecting it. But the net position bias is -0.016, which is bearish; the average leverage of longs is 22x, and within 2%, 6% of longs are close to liquidation. These support orders won't hold when the market crashes; instead, they will turn into queued liquidation orders. The resistance at 78008 is only 1% higher, pressing down 5.8 million.
$ETH 2240 is even more obvious, with a large buy order of 65.7 million hanging at 2127, quite thick, right? But above at 2301, there's 5.3 million pressing down, and within 5%, 8% of longs are close to liquidation. As long as this big wall stands, sentiment is stable, but if it withdraws, the price will plunge directly.
$SOL 95.98 is the most straightforward, with resistance at 97.18, hitting the wall after a 1.25% rise, and the sell orders are very close; the support orders are all at 91 and 93, with a big gap in between. If it wants to rebound, it first has to ask if the short orders above will allow it.
Liquidity is thin on weekends, and order placements and cancellations happen in an instant. Thick buy orders give a sense of security, but they can't hold the bottom. If a move is coming, you won't see it in the order book in advance.
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 🔥The three major mainstream coins are all shorted together, but the whales are not rushing to exit! The total scale of the three short positions in BTC, ETH, and SOL is about $650 million, with varying performance on the books, but one common point stands out: the funding fee income has already exceeded what ordinary traders imagine at the thousand-dollar level, accumulating over $11.6 million, becoming an important buffer for this set of positions.
🔍 Specifically, the BTC short position holds 2,319.6 coins, 5x full position, opened at $76,366.1, currently floating a loss of $693,100, with funding fee income of $3,375,200. The ETH short position holds 100,000 coins, 5x full position, opened at $2,322.74, currently floating a profit of $8,602,800, with funding fee income of $4,332,700. The SOL short position holds 696,100 coins, 7x full position, opened at $94.3346, currently floating a loss of $698,400, with funding fee income of $3,899,700.
💡 Currently, ETH contributes the main profit on the books; BTC and SOL have slight floating losses, but the funding fee income has already covered the corresponding losses. However, funding fees will change with the market, and short positions may also face pressure from continued price increases, so the safety of the positions cannot be judged solely based on current data.
Tonight, we will continue to observe the trends of the three coins and changes in funding rates. Do you think this set of positions will continue to be held, or will they adjust risk based on the current profit and loss structure? #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 #Perspectivas del informe financiero de Palantir: ¿Puede el alto crecimiento sostener la alta valoración? 🔥All are short positions, BTC and SOL are still slightly losing, but ETH has already earned $8.6 million! This giant whale is simultaneously betting on the three major mainstream coins, with about $650 million in positions on-chain. The truly interesting part is the divergence in profit and loss among the three short orders, as well as the continuously incoming funding fees.
📉The BTC short uses 5x full margin, holding 2,319.6 coins, opened at $76,366.1, currently floating a loss of $693,100, but funding fees have already collected $3,375,200. ETH also uses 5x full margin, holding 100,000 coins, opened at $2,322.74, currently floating a profit of $8,602,800, with an additional $4,332,700 in funding fee income. The SOL short uses 7x full margin, holding 696,100 coins, opened at $94.3346, currently floating a loss of $698,400, with funding fee income of $3,899,700.
🧭From the ledger data, ETH is the current main source of profit, while BTC and SOL's funding fee income covers their respective floating losses. The total funding fees for the three positions exceed $11.6 million. But this does not mean the risk has disappeared; continued price increases may still expand short losses.
Tonight, the focus is on whether BTC, ETH, and SOL show synchronized weakness. Which short position do you think is most worth watching? #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 🔥This time the whale's short position is backed not just by margin, but by the daily ongoing funding fees! BTC, ETH, and SOL all have short positions simultaneously, with a total position size of about $650 million. Although the profit and loss of the three positions are not synchronized, the funding fee income has already formed a considerable buffer.
📊First, look at BTC: 5x full position short, holding 2,319.6 coins, entry price $76,366.1, currently floating loss of $693,100, but cumulative funding fee income has reached $3,375,200. For ETH, 5x full position short holding 100,000 coins, entry price $2,322.74, currently floating profit of $8,602,800, funding fee income $4,332,700. SOL is a 7x full position short, holding 696,100 coins, floating loss of $698,400, funding fee income $3,899,700.
💰The combined funding fees collected from the three positions exceed $11.6 million, which is clearly higher than the current total floating losses of BTC and SOL. However, funding fees are not fixed income; market rate changes, price reversals, and margin usage all affect actual risk.
What’s worth watching today is whether the whale maintains the short structure across the three coins. Do you think this is more like a long-term hedge or waiting for the next round of decline? #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 $XRP Franklin's fund share on XRPL just quadrupled, while the XRP price dropped 13% during the same period.
A bunch of people are rushing in seeing the institutional on-chain benefits, but actually, they don't need to buy XRP on the secondary market for subscription. The busier the chain, the more honest the sell orders on the order book.
Recently, the market makers even use news like the trust license landing to hype, but there's no buying pressure at all; they're just distributing chips by leveraging the good news. Now all five moving averages are pressing down hard overhead; at this position, the bulls are purely holding on stubbornly.
#XRP
$XRP
👇The 4.83% ETF net asset ratio is the input field I most wanted to highlight when reading this message. According to SoSoValue data, on October 30 Eastern Time, the Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $156 million, marking five consecutive days of net outflows. I would list this as a warning for fund sentiment but would not immediately escalate it to "the entire Ethereum demand is retreating." 💻
Following the logic of code review, the logic must first pass type checking: ETF fund flow describes a channel and cannot be directly treated as the entire market demand. This ratio reminds me that the observation window has boundaries; drawing conclusions about the whole building based on changes within the window is a variable scope overreach.
The potential bug is on the other side as well: a low proportion does not mean the impact is small. If ETF outflows trigger other participants to simultaneously reduce risk exposure, then the sentiment impact may exceed its asset proportion. This is my speculation; the material itself does not prove this transmission chain.
If it were me, I would split the dashboard into "channel fund changes" and "whether the impact spills over," first reporting anomalies, then checking the call chain, without rushing to declare the entire ecosystem faulty. Please help me review: to verify whether this outflow has spillover effects, would you prioritize checking spot trading volume or on-chain fund flows? Why?$BTC and $ETH #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 are currently in different stress positions within the same round of deleveraging, rather than the same type of weakness. BTC's technical defense is stronger (the 77,000 moving average resonance + the 72,946 weekly midline), with partial support from ETF and spot buying on the capital side, and the funding rate not turning negative indicates that the bulls have not systematically surrendered; ETH, on the other hand, is under triple pressure from technical structure breakdown, continuous ETF redemptions, and narrative premium contraction. The gain or loss of 2,183–2,200 almost determines whether the short term will enter a bottoming phase or open a new round of downward space.
Short-term scenario simulation. Under the baseline scenario, BTC maintains weak oscillation in the 76,270–78,500 range. If the monthly close is above 77,000, the bottom structure is initially established, and there is a window for directional breakout early next week; if the daily close is below 77,000, the weekly support at 72,946 will come into view.
Key price levels. Immediate resistance above is in the 78,500–79,000 USD suppression zone, with stronger resistance at 79,693 USD (4-hour midline/80k psychological pivot) and 82,988 USD (daily Bollinger Band breakdown point and structural volume node). Immediate support below is at 76,260 USD (24-hour swing low and daily lower band). If the daily close is clearly below 77,000 USD, the daily Bollinger Band will open downward, with the next target pointing to the macro accumulation zone at the weekly midline of 72,946 USD.Last night, the US stock market also crashed, with tech stocks facing massive sell-offs. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 7.2%, and the Nasdaq at one point dropped over 4% intraday.
Chip stocks were the worst hit; Intel, with its prominent presence, fell nearly 30% in one day; Nvidia dropped 4.22%, with its market cap falling below $5 trillion, losing its global number one spot to Apple! In the storage sector, SanDisk plunged 13.47%, SK Hynix fell 7.95%, and Micron Technology dropped 5.3%.
Gold didn't escape either, falling 3.65%, and silver plunged 6.23%!
Why did US stocks fall? Because faith in AI has shaken, and the expectations for popular tech stocks were too high before; now that earnings can't keep up, the sell-off is especially fierce. Why did gold crash? Because of the stock market crash, many leveraged positions need to meet margin calls, so gold is sold off first to raise cash; combined with inflation worries caused by high oil prices, gold keeps falling.
The A-shares market was already so bad, and now US stocks and gold have also crashed. It's like they don't want anyone to have a good weekend. A-shares tech stocks will face selling pressure again next Monday; let's see if there will be any new rescue measures over the weekend!
To be a bit more rational, with the US stock market plunging, should we jump along? Keep in mind, the Dow Jones is up 1.7% this month, Nasdaq down 5.3%, and S&P 500 down 0.93%. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite is down 6.33%, the ChiNext Index down 23%, and the STAR Market down 24%, the declines are not even on the same level! Even the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is down 15% this month, still far less than the dual innovation boards.
At times like this, we should still have some confidence, after all, the dual innovation indexes have already fallen sharply in advance. The hacker's move was very clever — it rendered the measures to freeze Binance's stolen assets ineffective.
Before some USDT and USDC were frozen, the hacker managed to collateralize these stablecoins worth $60 million on $AAVE, borrowing about $45 million worth of $ETH in return.
Now Tether and Circle can only freeze the stablecoins in the wallet, but they are powerless against the ETH that has already been borrowed.
They might lose some money, but the money the hackers took home is absolutely safe.
Elon Musk believes this action was likely executed automatically by artificial intelligence to optimize profits, rather than being orchestrated by humans.Will $PEPE face such a disaster again this time? Back then, the long position liquidation volume soared directly to 16.8 billion. Hopefully, it's just a bull retracement and not the end of the bull market.
Keep in mind, BlackRock's IBIT holds 815,000 bitcoins (about 63 billion USD), but the vast majority are custodied solely by Coinbase. The most critical issue is that BlackRock hasn't purchased separate insurance, while Coinbase's entire commercial crime insurance coverage is only 320 million USD, with a maximum compensation of just 100 million USD per cold wallet address.
If something goes wrong one day, 320 million USD won't even cover the smallest gap, and the remaining shortfall won't be compensated. The shareholders who bought IBIT will have to bear the losses proportionally themselves. You might think buying an ETF means escaping the crypto world, but in reality, it's just switching to another custody pool. Wall Street's liability disclaimers have long washed their hands of responsibility.Yesterday, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $643 million, marking the highest single-day record since August 7. This is the most intense single-day withdrawal in nearly two months.
Breaking it down reveals even more noteworthy details. The largest outflow was from IBIT, with $234 million in a single day; closely followed by FBTC with $201 million. Together, these two accounted for $435 million, nearly 70% of the total outflow. Large outflows from both BlackRock and Fidelity’s leading products simultaneously indicate that this is not a single institution adjusting its portfolio alone, but rather a coordinated risk reduction across the entire institutional group. This signal is much more significant than an anomaly in a single product.
The capital flow of spot ETFs is significantly positively correlated with the price of $BTC, a fact repeatedly verified. On days with net inflows, prices tend to rise, while on consecutive days of net outflows, prices struggle to hold. The logic is straightforward: ETFs are one of the most important sources of incremental capital for this BTC cycle. When this channel shifts from buying to selling, the market’s marginal buying power shrinks considerably.
Therefore, this data should not be viewed in isolation. The single-day $643 million outflow is a warning signal; what truly determines the direction is whether this trend continues. Persistent outflows indicate systematic deleveraging by institutions, meaning $BTC’s rebound will lack ammunition; if it’s just a one-day portfolio adjustment followed by inflows, then this drop is more likely an overreaction driven by sentiment.
For ordinary holders, the focus now should not be on guessing the bottom but on monitoring the ETF flow line, which reflects the real money flow more directly than any candlestick chart. Without the return of incremental buying power, any rebound will be short-lived. $UNI UNI's chart really makes you gasp for breath on behalf of those holding the bag.
It dropped all the way from 7.5 to around 6.2, yet the long-short ratio stubbornly stays above 2.0. Over 90% of the liquidation orders are from longs desperately holding on after bottom-fishing and getting trapped.
The lower the price falls, the more retail traders like to go against the trend by adding leverage and holding firm. Below are densely packed forced liquidation lines.
With this structure, if the whales nudge it down a bit, it would trigger a long liquidation stampede, leaving no chance for a rebound. You can only say the market never lacks cannon fodder who refuse to believe the reality.
#UNI
$UNI
👇The Perp DEX market is currently experiencing an intense battle for users. On-chain derivatives exchanges are emerging like mushrooms after rain, but the actual liquidity share has not expanded accordingly. Due to various projects constantly competing for market share, capital flow is severely fragmented.
Please check CryptoRank's volume chart:
January peak reached $940 billion.
July dropped to the lowest point: $533 billion
October slightly rebounded: $657 billion
- Current decline: down 30% from the peak at the beginning of the year.
Although October saw some improvement due to short-term market fluctuations, trading volume remains far below the booming levels at the start of the year. The core issue is that new funds have not truly flowed into the ecosystem. Existing participants are merely switching back and forth between different exchanges to seek airdrops or optimize trading fees.
Currently, the biggest risk for large traders is slippage and severe liquidity shortages that may occur during strong market rallies. On the other hand, only protocols that truly optimize payment mechanisms and retain professional derivatives traders can bring real opportunities. $BTC "Uptober" didn't come again this year, two years in a row
October's accounts are settled today. Bitcoin is around 77,200, down about 4% for the month, marking the second consecutive year of a decline in October—this is the first time since at least 2017. Historically, October's average gain is 18%, which is why the month is nicknamed "Uptober." This year, it didn't show up.
From the all-time high, BTC has retraced 38.8%, weekly drop of 4.29%, monthly drop of 8.79%. The Fear & Greed Index is at 30 (Fear), and Coinbase premium has been negative for 56 consecutive days—the US money has consistently been bidding below global prices.
The only major event this week is Binance. Official statement: affected assets are about 6.3 billion USD, approximately 3 billion frozen on-chain, net affected around 3 billion, accounting for just over 2% of user assets and public reserves; compensation will come from SAFU plus own funds, promising full 1:1 backing of user assets, withdrawals expected to resume within 42 hours. The breach originated from a laptop of an operations engineer. TRM Labs estimates actual outflow about 6.36 billion, most completed within 20 minutes, roughly four times the scale of the 2025 Bybit case.
Please note the hierarchy of these three figures: affected, frozen, net loss—they are not the same. Binance also clarified a rumor: "Binance must buy 6.3 billion USD on the market" is false because most of the own reserves are already held in token form. This clarification is crucial; it explains why the price drop is 4% instead of 15%.
But some numbers still look bad: 1.55 billion USD liquidated in 24 hours, mostly long positions; futures open interest dropped to 136.3 billion, but volume rose 74%—more trading, less open interest, this is deleveraging, not bottom fishing.
So my judgment is: this wave is not "panic," but deleveraging plus a trust discount. The former is technical, the latter won't disappear with withdrawal resumption.
Key levels: now 76,675 is the weekly low, above 78,000 turned from support to resistance, then down to 75,000.
Discussion: With the exchange hacked, what exactly is falling—the coin or the "custody" issue?
I lean more toward the former. 6.3 billion stolen, price only down 4%—if this were 2022, the drop would likely be double digits. The market's restrained reaction shows it distinguishes two things: what was stolen was Binance's money, not Bitcoin's ledger.
Poll: What do you think needs the most scrutiny in this event—A. Why could the hot wallet be emptied of 6.3 billion at once; B. Can the 3 billion frozen really be returned; C. How is the "just over 2%" ratio calculated; D. None of these matter, just resume withdrawals.
I choose A. The entry point was a laptop, and it was connected to tens of billions.
Not investment advice, risk on your own. #MarketAnalysis $BTCYesterday marked the end of October, and the market was disrupted by a massive volume of expiring options. Today, instead of discussing technical levels, let's talk about whose leverage is rebuilding and who is still withdrawing after the options expiration:
$BTC's rebound is weak; after the options expiration, the bulls haven't rebuilt confidence. On 10/30, Deribit saw 135k BTC expire, with a notional value of about 11 billion, accounting for 35% of the platform's open interest.
The next anchor after expiration is on 12/25 (max pain around 75k). The funding rate is +0.0044%, below the 30-day average of 0.0052%, meaning the bulls are barely paying.
The November monthly candle opened at 83,564, and the probability of closing below the open on the final day is about 88%. With expectations of a rate hike in December, a bearish monthly close is highly likely.
$ETH has the heaviest leverage and the bears are betting the hardest. Open interest is 42.18 billion, the largest among the three. The spot ETF saw a net outflow of 1.08 billion in October, the largest single-month outflow this year, wiping out the 832 million net inflow in September.
Among the three, ETH has the fattest leverage and the most painful deleveraging. I won't acknowledge a bottom unless 2200 is reclaimed.
$SOL's leverage is withdrawing but the bulls are still betting. Open interest is 8.07 billion; yesterday, OI dropped by 6%, indicating active deleveraging. HIP-3 accounts for 35% of Hyperliquid volume, and on-chain adoption is expanding, so this SOL drop is driven by macro factors. Once the market stabilizes, it should lead.#The new CEO of Apple receives the first performance record of iPhone18 I choose No, the basic logic of judgment is not due to poor financial reports; on the contrary, this financial report data is very strong.
First, the main AI storage line had a strong increase before the financial report, the major benefits were mostly priced in by the market beforehand, benefits turn into disadvantages when realized. The main funds played a trick of a golden cicada shedding its shell here, don't just focus on the small profits in front of you
First look at $BTC short-term (within a few hours) contracts and spot, both are indeed net inflows, it looks like a counterattack is coming. But if you scroll down, contracts have a 24-hour net outflow of 570 million, spot also outflows 570 million, and over 30 days both lines outflow over 10 billion. The short term gives you a little sweetness, but in the long term big money is still retreating crazily. The pump is just to unload, don't be the bag holder
Next look at $ETH spot, it barely held strong with a 24-hour net inflow of 284 million, but contracts ran off 380 million. This is clearly spot supporting the bottom while contracts are dumping. Looking at 30 days, spot outflowed 3.1 billion. This is called a dead duck stubbornly trying to survive; the support can last a moment, but not forever
Finally look at $SOL, quite interesting, spot 8 to 12 hours are all green bars aggressively bottom fishing, but note that 30 days still outflows nearly 30 million. Short-term funds are trading inside, but the big trend has not reversed at all
In summary, short-term data is just a smokescreen used by manipulative traders to draw charts, the big cycle fund movements are the trump card. Without continuous big money entering, the current rebound is all an illusion
Do you usually watch the market focusing only on short-term excitement or on big cycle trends? Have you ever been fooled by such short-term illusions?
#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化 $BTC $ETH $SOL Look at the plight of the tech giants: Intel plummeted 29% in a single day, Google shrank 13% in a week. The core logic is simple: AI is a money-eating beast, burning cash without producing yield. Google's Q3 AI investment exceeded its revenue by 9.1 billion, and Amazon plans to add 220 billion in capital expenditure this year. More dangerously, much of this money is borrowed. $BTC $ETH $SNDK When debt matures and needs to be repaid, and bond market liquidity tightens, investors often sell the most liquid assets first—unfortunately, Bitcoin has become that "ATM." Therefore, next week's earnings reports from Nvidia and AMD are the critical turning points for survival. If they prove demand remains strong and the capital chain intact, the crypto market can catch a breather; once they start cutting budgets, the crypto market will fall earlier and harder than the stock market. Focus on one key indicator: global AI infrastructure investment is expected to reach 900 billion USD this year. As long as this number keeps rising, risk assets have liquidity; once it turns downward, the real winter begins. This bull market for Bitcoin is not short on narratives but lacks extra liquidity outside the market. When Nvidia's earnings report is released, will you watch the US stock market first or your crypto? After lunch, I sat back down at the computer. The market has caught its breath a bit compared to this morning, but overall it remains weak. BTC climbed back from the morning low near 76360 to around 77500, ETH barely held above 2250, SOL rebounded to about 96.7, and the intraday drop narrowed from 7% in the morning to around 1.9%. In the past 24 hours, about $573 million worth of liquidations occurred across the network, with long positions accounting for $413 million (72%), 105,000 people were liquidated, and the largest single liquidation was a $11.43 million short on Binance at a liquidation price of 77954, indicating that bears also got hit during the rebound.
However, the funding situation remains divided. BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $17.06 million yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT alone taking in $12.8 million; ETH spot ETFs have experienced net outflows for five consecutive days, with $156 million outflow in a single day, and cumulative outflows in October are approaching historical records. Money is only flowing into BTC, while the channels for ETH and SOL are still leaking.
My view remains unchanged: the black swan shock from Binance's 6.3 billion incident has passed its most intense phase, but "stopping the fall" does not equal "reversal." BTC's 76500 level is the second psychological defense line; until volume confirms a reclaim above 79000, bottom-fishing is just catching the flying knives of programmed liquidations; ETH faces resistance at 2280 above, and the rebounds are paper tigers; SOL has support near 93, but 97.5-98.5 is a comfortable zone for shorts. Conditions are not met yet, so I'll keep eating noodles and watching—the market won't run away 😉. #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 🔍$3.31 million worth of $LIT, why does it account for the majority of this withdrawal? What I'm focusing on is this detail. According to Lookonchain monitoring, a newly created address withdrew LIT, ENA, and ARB from OKX, with a total value of $6 million, more than half of which is LIT.
Don't rush to conclusions. What can be confirmed is the withdrawal, but not that it was just purchased; a new address does not necessarily mean a new player. I prefer to treat it as a clue for asset migration rather than direct evidence of bullishness: withdrawal does not represent new demand, nor can the holding intention be judged solely based on this transaction.
An interesting detail here: the three tokens are moved together, possibly indicating a unified custody arrangement, which is my speculation. If they continue to be retained afterward, then the explanation of long-term custody would be more plausible, but still not confirmed. Next, I will watch whether LIT continues to be transferred out. Are you betting on it staying put, or being dispersed? Let's watch together and see whose speculation is closer.Core Enters the Final Stage of Decentralization: DAO Officially Hands Over, Zero Downtime in Block Production Rights Transfer
Core has reached a critical development milestone as the DAO successfully transfers block production rights to external independent validators. The entire transition period maintained zero downtime on the network, marking a landmark step forward in the project's decentralization process. Since the genesis block of Core, gradually reducing project team control and empowering the community has been the core strategy. This handover of block production rights is an important realization of the long-term decentralization plan.
With this transition, early core contributors such as Rich Rines and Brendon Sedo have stepped down from DAO management roles. Going forward, major decisions on ecosystem expansion, growth strategies, and sector directions will be increasingly led by the community. More independent node operators, community-built projects, and community participants known as Coretoshi will jointly define Core's future development path.
The official stance is that only a community-controlled public chain can sustain development through market cycles. The project will continue to explore the potential of the Bitcoin ecosystem while upholding the narrative of decentralization and asset sovereignty. From an investment research perspective, this event represents a strong positive narrative. However, the announcement of "handing over" does not mean a complete departure from the founding team's influence, as early team holdings still exist. The true degree of decentralization still requires verification through on-chain real data such as node distribution and community voting, and should not be judged solely based on a single announcement.Before placing a big Bitcoin order, I always check the unfilled orders first, especially those that have been pending for a long time. Some orders just sit there, and the reasons for buying have changed, but I'm too lazy to cancel them. If the market really sweeps through, both old and new orders might get filled simultaneously, causing the actual purchase volume to exceed what I originally intended. I often ponder how big funds move, yet my own money is still queued up for ideas I've long abandoned. Sometimes when I find old orders without notes, I have to look at the charts and recall what exactly I wanted to buy back then. "Still prohibiting new collateralized loans," I think this half sentence carries more weight than "reopening the market": the resumption of the protocol's operation does not mean stepping on the credit expansion accelerator again.
According to LlamaRisk's report, the main emergency batches have been executed, and Aave has reopened previously frozen markets, but actual usage is still constrained by available liquidity and collateral rules. I prefer to interpret this as a phased release rather than a risk alarm being lifted. This distinction is especially important for those who are used to judging good news just by glancing at the headline; I myself need to guard against this kind of laziness.
What I care about is not the speed of reopening, but whether the brakes are retained after the emergency. My speculation is that if new collateralized loans are allowed simultaneously with market reopening, then new borrowing positions would also fall under risk management; retaining restrictions means at least not tying the resumption of use with exposure expansion. This restraint, in my view, is more valuable than a straightforward "full recovery."
But the brakes cannot always be explained by just saying "not open for now." I judge the quality of subsequent handling by whether the basis for lifting restrictions is clear, not just by whether the announcement wording is optimistic. Regarding the new collateralized loans still blocked this time, what verifiable conditions would you want Aave to disclose to clearly explain the next steps?Gold and BTC falling alongside equities makes this look like a liquidity event rather than a clean flight to safety. The Nasdaq's 2.86% decline and the 7.2% semiconductor drop show risk appetite was hit hardest where valuations are most sensitive. Lower Treasury yields may help stabilize conditions, but they do not settle the inflation and rate-path debate.
#StocksGoldSilverSelloff $SOPH This market situation is too ironic.
Bears are losing money every day, paying a high interest of -0.7% to hold their short positions, yet the price stubbornly clings to the highest point and can't be pushed down.
Open interest soared 54% along with the price, and the short positions are as crowded as during the Spring Festival travel rush.
The market clearly intends to crush the bears.
Anyone still daring to short on rallies at this point is very likely to become fuel for the main force's short squeeze rally.
#SOPH
$SOPH
👇The pot isn't even hot yet, but the Strait of Hormuz is already smoking—the Brent crude oil is like a ladle of boiling oil poured into a frying pan at $117.64, the highest flame in six months. Qatar's mediator rushed to Tehran, coordinating remotely with the White House. Their talks, lasting over twelve hours, are like simmering a diplomatic broth: Washington demands nuclear concessions, Tehran insists on lifting blockades and sanctions first. Both sides have their ladles in the pot, but neither is willing to turn off the heat first. Without an agreement, this broth hasn't emulsified yet; oil remains oil, water remains water, calm on the surface but already separating underneath.
From my kitchen perspective, the energy supply risk isn't just about sprinkling salt—it's like a gas leak under the stove. Another report of an oil tanker attacked in Hormuz is like a sudden seafood market shutdown, forcing all menu prices to change; rumors of possible military action after the midterm elections are like tightening the pressure valve on a cooker—nothing has exploded outside yet, but inside it's already hissing. Brent crude surging to a six-month high means the heat has shifted from a simmer to a stir-fry; anyone still prepping ingredients at the old cost will have their gross margin scorched first.
$xIREN, this US stock token, reacts like a stir-fried dish: once the oil temperature rises, it sizzles immediately; a slight risk aversion causes the market to lose momentum. Don't just watch it flip with the main US stock pot; energy prices push inflation and interest rate expectations up together. Even with smooth liquidity in tokenized stocks, the kitchen fears sudden power outages. Mainstream coins are the main course, altcoins the seasoning, and leveraged contracts the extra spicy chili—now this dish has chili powder sprinkled on the pot's edge, and it can't be instantly cooled down just by Doha bringing a plate of sauce.
My kitchen verdict is simple: the diplomatic sauce can't hold the ladle yet, the oil temperature has reached $117.64, and the Hormuz supply list is still shaking. Don't treat the $xIREN tokenized US stock pot as a lukewarm dessert. Whoever sprinkles leverage like chili powder will burn their guts first; the cutting board is already shaking. Whether the next step is simmering to reduce the sauce or stir-frying to scorch the pot depends on whether the mediator can press down the lid first. #qatarmediatesusiran$HYPE
I checked the liquidation records of that Hyperliquid account from my buddy, and there's a detail many people haven't mentioned. For the first 3 forced liquidations, only 20% of the position was closed each time; it wasn't until the 4th time that the remaining 215 tokens were fully liquidated in one go. The system was slowly draining the position, but the person stubbornly didn't exit.
In 6 hours, there were 8 liquidations, 93 trades executed, closing out 510.93 ETH. The liquidation price slid from 2323.8 down to 2208.5. Woke up to see a balance of $1.5. That's not even the worst part—later that afternoon, he deposited 250,000 USDC back in and continued going long on ETH, BTC, and HYPE.
I also checked the HYPE order book. OKX current price is 88.6, 24-hour open was 93.3, down nearly 5 points, with a low of 88.3. Binance matches at 88.7. The fee rate is still a positive 0.01%, and open interest is $111 million without shrinking. Despite the drop, longs are still paying to queue up.
I used to do this kind of thing years ago—after blowing up a position, I'd immediately jump back in, always thinking the next trade could recover the losses. So looking at these 8 forced liquidations, rather than mocking him, it's more like looking in a mirror. This isn't about technique; it's an addiction. $1.5 isn't the end point; depositing that 250,000 back in is. $SOL
The US SOL spot ETF saw a net outflow of over ten million dollars in a single day, meaning more money was withdrawn than invested that day. When I saw this headline, I was a bit puzzled, as it’s easy to misinterpret it as "institutions are abandoning SOL." But not all ETF buyers are institutions, and just looking at net outflow doesn’t tell you who withdrew or why. It's understandable to be bearish, but directly translating this as institutions collectively fleeing leaves out too much of the story.$BTC
643.2 million USD. Yesterday in the US stock market, the net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in a single day wiped out all the net inflows accumulated over the previous four days. This is the first full trading day institutional report card since the Binance hack.
Looking closer, it's even more interesting. The biggest runner was IBIT, with 234 million, with BlackRock's clients leading the charge. FBTC had 201 million, ARKB 129.5 million; together these three completely reversed the approximately 441 million inflow from the first four days. On the ETH side, there was also an outflow of 155.7 million on the same day, marking the fifth consecutive day of bleeding.
I just checked the market. OKX spot is at 77,195, 24-hour open at 78,612, down less than two percent, Binance at 77,196 matches up. The perpetual fee rate is still a positive 0.01%, longs are lining up to pay, and open interest at 26.7 billion USD hasn't shrunk. Despite the drop, no one is panicking.
My view: 640 million sounds scary, but since IBIT's launch, cumulative net inflows have exceeded 60 billion; this amount is just a drop in the bucket. What matters is not the amount, but the direction. The sudden reversal after four consecutive days of inflows indicates that some are starting to price the Binance incident as a systemic event, not just a problem of one exchange.
I used to treat ETF inflows as a talisman. Now that talisman is tarnished, and I no longer dare to rely on it as a bottom.
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 378% revenue growth resulted in a 13.47% heavy blow — this indicates that the fundamentals have not collapsed; the real issue is: the dominant side thought victory was assured, but the opponent completed their tactical combination one step ahead.
First, set the board correctly. The approximately 460% increase since the beginning of the year is a typical opening aggressive attack: continuously sacrificing pawns, seizing material, and occupying open lines, pushing piece activity to the extreme. This kind of game looks good but is dangerous because each pawn sacrificed loosens the pawn structure; once the pawn structure is loosened, there is no turning back in the middle game.
The 8-for-1 stock split is read by many as positive news, but I see it as a pawn structure rearrangement. Splitting one big piece into eight small pawns increases the number of squares, but the control power of each square is diluted; it seems to increase options, but actually weakens the originally compact coordination. More pieces do not equal a better position—this is one of the most expensive lessons in chess.
Therefore, when the quarterly report exceeds expectations and guidance also surpasses expectations, yet the stock price directly falls 13.47%, there is no need to be surprised. This is called "good news fully priced in": you think you are reading the financial report, but the opponent has already calculated twenty moves ahead before you made your move. That 13.47% drop is not losing material but a forced exchange, converting floating high valuation into cash, and emotions into chips. The real question is: who got the better endgame structure in this exchange?
A more critical move is on the flank. Micron and Western Digital being suppressed simultaneously indicates this is not a single piece being captured but the entire pawn chain being restrained. The danger of restraint is that you cannot move; any move will create a leak. The entire storage diagonal now hangs on the same nail; if any piece is removed, the entire defense line must be recalculated. In this situation, focusing only on a single company's financial report is a blind spot; what really matters is whether the support points of the entire pawn chain still exist.
Back to valuation, this is an endgame problem, not a middle game problem. The middle game compares piece activity and time advantage; the endgame compares square control, king position, and who still has the strength to promote. A 460% increase equals having already promoted all three future pawns into queens in advance; every remaining move must be perfect, with zero tolerance for error. The market now is not asking whether growth is possible, but whether the growth slope can still exceed the already maxed-out pricing—on the board, these are completely different matters.
My judgment is simple: this is not the end of the trend but a change of rhythm; the bulls' time advantage is being eaten away bit by bit. The most fatal thing in the endgame is never losing a pawn but having to move, with every move weakening yourself. #sandiskearningsselloffThe 12 billion dividend comes from selling assets
SK Hynix's Q3 financial report hasn't been released yet, but here are two things to note.
One is the mass production of HBM4, the other is a special dividend of 12 billion USD.
Where does this money come from:
It's not earned profit; it comes from selling Kioxia shares.
About 20 trillion KRW in gains, 80% of which is used for dividends.
Common misunderstanding:
This is a one-time asset sale, not something that will happen every year.
The unit price of HBM4 is 560 USD, over 50% higher than the previous generation, which is the sustainable part.
But the 50% price increase relies solely on NVIDIA.
Watch if the next quarter discloses HBM4 shipment volume separately.
If not, this dividend is just a one-time event.
#BTC持续震荡，后续走势受多重因素影响
#$NVDA Instantly withdrawing $140 billion from the load-bearing system won't make the building cry out in pain first; it will bend first. Intel's stock dropped 28.6% in a single day—not a price correction, but the main structure collapsing continuously in full view, while the blueprint's top right corner still marks the load-bearing level for data centers and artificial intelligence. The financial report reads like a construction accident record: data center and AI revenue surged 78% to $7.3 billion, but the supply of server chip beams and columns was blocked, and capacity allocation was like mechanical and electrical pipelines without integrated layout; when the load comes on, local cracks appear first. Personal computer revenue fell by five percentage points, with weak demand dragging into the first half of next year—not a facade issue, but the entire building's traffic flow planning and leasing assumptions both miscalculated. The single-day market value loss is in the hundreds of billions, equivalent to chiseling away years of accumulated brand premium at once. The Nasdaq fell 2.9%, and the chip sector sank in tandem, indicating that the foundation of adjacent plots is also undergoing stress redistribution; the price shifts of linked targets are just the visible part of facade cracks. The real test is the Q4 guidance: if capacity can't be expanded, the supply chain's construction joints will continue to leak; no matter how strong AI demand is, it's only the floor area ratio on paper, unable to convert into cash flow. Data center demand is a live load, server chip supply is beams and columns, and the PC business is a completed podium with declining rent; without redoing structural calculations for these three, any growth narrative is an overhanging cantilever. The market is punishing not insufficient demand, but development capability lagging behind the design: treating orders as embedded parts, capacity as concrete curing time, and cash flow as project completion acceptance—if the sequence is wrong, even the tallest building must stop formwork first. Intel's urgent task is not to draw a grander bird's-eye view but to return to the basic floor plan, confirm whether load-bearing walls are continuous, whether nodes can transfer shear force, and whether the supply chain has redundancy; otherwise, if one column becomes unstable, the 28.6 percentage point displacement is just the first reading. #intelsharesdrop28.6%Another whale is bottom-fishing, this time the opportunity might really be here!
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧
A whale bought 7,703.2 ETH at $2,237.6 each with 17.24 million USDC 9 hours ago, adding to the 1,671 ETH purchased half a month ago, holding a total of 9,375.6 ETH with a total investment of about $21.23 million and an average cost of about $2,264.
In the past few days, more whales have started bottom-fishing. I judge that the opportunity to be bullish might really be here!
My basis is:
1. The daily RSI has dropped to around 30, entering the oversold zone. Historical experience shows a high probability of rebound after such extreme sentiment;
2. The price is testing the $2,200–$2,230 support zone (recent lows and daily pivot area), with stronger support near the 200-day moving average below;
3. The panic selling triggered by this hacker incident has been released in stages. Adding positions now is often a signal that risks have been fully priced in.
Operation advice:
$ETH should be bought in batches at low prices within the $2,200–$2,260 range, with a position not exceeding 20%–30% of total funds.
Set stop loss below $2,150; if it breaks down effectively, then wait and see.
The target is first to watch the $2,350–$2,400 resistance; after stabilizing, look toward around $2,500.
Overall, focus on holding support and waiting for oversold recovery, avoiding chasing highs. Long-short ratio for the three coins all declined, with SOL long positions liquidated first at 569,000 U
$BTC: Short position clearing has slowed
24h high 78801.7, low 76265.2. Long-short ratio 2.75 (4 hours ago 2.92), open interest 34,709 contracts worth about 2.676 billion U. In the last approximately 260 minutes, 100 liquidation orders: short positions 470,000 U, long positions 47,000 U — still mainly short liquidations.
$ETH: Short liquidations dragged on longer
24h high 2262.02, low 2208.4. Long-short ratio 2.74 (4 hours ago 2.88), open interest 622,330 contracts worth about 1.393 billion U. In the last approximately 544 minutes, 100 liquidation orders: short positions 532,000 U, long positions 26,000 U — short positions still being liquidated.
$SOL: The trend has changed, more long positions liquidated
24h high 98.58, low 93.56. Long-short ratio 3.02 (4 hours ago 3.41), open interest 3,452,260 contracts worth about 332 million U. In the last approximately 545 minutes, 100 liquidation orders: long positions 569,000 U, short positions 384,000 U — longs have overtaken.
Commentary: Long-short ratios all declined, short position clearing slowed, SOL longs were washed out first.
Summary: Can BTC hold 76265.2? Will SOL 93.56 be tested again? Whichever breaks first will determine the direction. Will shorts clear out first, or will longs back down first?
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 #Palantir Financial Report Outlook: Can High Growth Support a High Valuation? Brothers, Intel plunged 22% after hours, and this might just be the beginning! Storage price hikes are backfiring on the entire PC industry chain.
When the earnings report came out, the market voted with its feet immediately. Chen Liwu also spoke frankly: PC demand remains weak, memory prices have surged all the way, and this pressure gap is unlikely to be filled until at least the first half of 2027.
The underlying logic is harsh: AI computing power upstream is thriving, while traditional PCs are suffering greatly.
In the past two years, everyone was wildly hyping the storage super cycle, with Hynix, Samsung, and Micron making huge profits.
But all the cost pressure has been passed down, with PC chip manufacturers and OEMs being heavily squeezed by high-priced storage.
End products aren’t selling, costs can’t be reduced, and producing each unit results in a loss.
A key reminder: don’t get itchy to bottom-fish just because the price has dropped a lot!
A rebound in a declining sector is very likely not a reversal.
Capital flow is the core: money continues to cluster in AI computing power and upstream storage, and the tough days for the traditional PC chain are far from over.
Hold your position steady, and don’t get carried away!