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Ethereum reaches the 12-hour resistance line, so I am setting up short positions!
The core logic for shorting ETH at 2512 mainly relies on the exhaustion of macro bullish factors, the market's blood-sucking effect, and Ethereum's own fundamental weakness.
First, macro bullish factors are exhausted. With the midterm election results settled, market sentiment shifts from political games back to fundamentals. Currently, the Fed's December rate hike expectations remain high, and the high interest rate environment continues to suppress risk assets. The crypto market lacks new macro incremental funds in the short term.
Second, market blood-sucking and short squeeze risks. BTC breaking through 81,000 was mainly a passive surge caused by short covering, with insufficient active buying. Once BTC faces resistance and falls back above 81,300, funds will likely further withdraw from ETH and other altcoins.
Third, Ethereum's own narrative is lacking. Currently, funds either cluster around BTC or speculate on US stock AI. The Ethereum ecosystem recently lacks phenomenally popular applications, and the inflow of spot ETF funds is far below expectations, lacking fundamental support for independent strength.
Fourth, technical and contract structure. Based on previous market conditions, there is strong resistance around 2315-2320, with multiple failed attempts to break through effectively. 2512, as a quarterly contract, sees increasing long rollover costs over time and faces delivery pressure. Against the backdrop of macro uncertainty and capital diversion, shorting on rallies offers a better risk-reward ratio. Set stop losses properly to guard against extreme one-sided moves. #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 $ETH 🚨 US Midterm Elections Ignite the Market! Democrats Take Control of Congress, Global Assets Face Repricing!
The shift in the US political landscape is bringing new investment variables to the crypto market, tech stocks, and traditional assets.
📊 Market Focus in Three Directions:
🟡 Gold and the US Dollar
Expectations for fiscal expansion cool down, US Treasury yields and dollar trends are worth watching, gold may see inflows of safe-haven funds.
⚡ Clean Energy and Healthcare
Democratic policy preferences may bring new positive expectations, related sectors are likely to gain more attention.
🤖 AI and Tech Stocks
Regulatory uncertainty rises, but the long-term trends of AI computing power, chips, and storage sectors still depend on corporate profits and market liquidity.
₿ Crypto Market
BTC, ETH, ZEC may be affected by changes in risk appetite, but the true determinants of mid-to-long-term trends remain Federal Reserve policy, liquidity, and regulatory environment.
⚠️ The election is only a short-term catalyst; debt ceiling negotiations and bipartisan struggles may still cause market volatility.
💬 Do you think the next round of opportunities will belong to gold, AI, or the crypto market?
#BTC #ETH #ZEC #Crypto #USMidtermElections #DailyOrbit🚀 USDC on-chain transaction volume surged 151%! Circle's earnings report tonight, the real highlight is here!
Circle is about to release its Q3 earnings report, but this time I'm more focused not on the stock price, but on how much commercial value stablecoins can actually create.
📊 Key data from last quarter:
🔹 USDC circulation: $73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year
🔹 On-chain transaction volume: $14.8 trillion, up 151% year-over-year
🔹 Revenue and reserve income: $701 million, up 7% year-over-year
🔹 Channel profit-sharing costs: $412 million
🤔 Why has USDC usage surged while revenue hasn't grown in sync?
The core reason is that Circle still heavily relies on reserve asset income while bearing substantial channel profit-sharing costs.
I believe Circle's real long-term opportunity is to upgrade USDC from an exchange funding tool to the infrastructure for corporate payments and global settlement.
If it can break free from dependence on interest income in the future, the valuation logic of the stablecoin industry may undergo a major transformation!
💬 What do you think will be Circle's biggest growth engine going forward? USDC issuance or payment business?
#Circle #USDC #CRCL #Stablecoin #Crypto #DailyOrbitDon't panic! SPO is quietly being accumulated at this position.
Today's market actually hides signals. SPO has bounced back to $0.00002738 from the low of $0.000027. It looks unremarkable, but the spot buying has quietly thickened.
This is no coincidence. Over the past nearly 30 days, SPO has retraced from a high to the 0% percentile. Panic selling has basically subsided, and accumulation is starting at the low level — this reflects the attitude of the capital.
But be clear: right now it's at most "stopped falling," not yet at the "rising" stage. $0.000036 is the watershed; if it breaks above, $0.000037 is just ahead; if it doesn't, it will keep consolidating.
In terms of operation, I have only one suggestion: don't cut losses at the most panic moments, and don't chase highs when volume is low. Accumulate in batches above $0.000027, add on a breakout above $0.000036, and exit if it breaks below $0.000027.
In the crypto world, money is always made by those who are patient and disciplined. Data is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.Liquidations and Leverage
🔥 On October 7, the entire market saw about $547 million in liquidations, with 88% being long positions; at that time, BTC perpetual contracts had an open interest of approximately $69.29 billion (Crypto Times, citing CoinGlass).
📅 On October 13, 24-hour liquidations ranged from about $140 million to $154 million (CryptoTicker, citing CoinGlass), roughly 26% to 28% of the October 7 figure (my own calculation).
⚖️ This week's price volatility did not trigger large-scale liquidations (Cointribune), but Bitfinex warns that leverage is accumulating again.
🕒 CoinGlass figures are rolling and vary by date depending on the scope.
Fewer liquidations indicate the short term is not as crowded, but this does not clarify direction; I am uncertain and might be mistaken.
📍 Positions I am watching:
• $79,821: liquidation trigger level
• $83,000: possible short squeeze trigger after breakout
Do you think the rise in leverage is preparing for an upward move or a downward one?
$BTC $ETH #CanBTCHold80K #DemocratsWinCongress #CircleQ3USDCVolumeUp49% $BTC $ETH $ZEC Ethereum fluctuated around $2,330 throughout the day, rising 2.4% in 24 hours, with the 7-day decline narrowing to 1.9%, but still down 14% over 30 days. Compared to BTC, Ethereum's rebound strength is limited, with spot demand remaining the main drag.
Ethereum spot ETFs saw a total net outflow of $85.3462 million yesterday, continuing a 7-day net outflow streak. BlackRock's ETHA led with a net outflow of $74.4383 million, while Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ETH had a net outflow of $10.9079 million. Markus Thielen expects Ethereum's performance to potentially lag behind Bitcoin. Technically, Whale Factor pointed out that after ETH broke below a multi-month uptrend line and failed to reclaim resistance, it is currently trading in a sell zone around $2,246. Three key levels: below $2,500 likely points to $1,800 (about 28% downside); $2,500-$2,683 is a transition zone; only a daily close above $2,683 will reverse the structure and open the space to $3,430. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $ETH The faith crusher has been confirmed 💔. TRUMP directly dropped to 1.31, evaporating 7.79% in one day, and falling more than a third in nearly 30 days. After the Democrats took control of Congress, the market's political expectations for Trump-related tokens not only fell through but also face investigation risks. On top of that, with daily continuous unlocking and selling pressure, the candlestick chart directly formed a guillotine. Brothers who previously shouted "Follow the President's charge," how are you doing now? #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% $BTC crashed below 76,000 at midnight, then climbed back above 80,000 by noon, playing those who stayed up all night with a V-shaped move.
As soon as the news broke that the Democrats took control of both chambers, the market first dropped sharply.
After dawn, the sentiment reversed, and when the US stock market opened with a rally, Bitcoin followed and recovered.
What concerns me is the other side: from last Friday to Tuesday, the spot ETF saw over 1.1 billion USD flow out for three consecutive days.
The price has returned, but the money hasn't come back yet.
I prefer to interpret this kind of rally as a short squeeze rather than the start of a new bullish cycle.
I’m not chasing the coins sitting idle in cold wallets.
Let it hold above 80,000 for a few days before deciding; if it falls back to 76,000, consider today’s rally a fake.
When it crashed down at midnight, did you sell, add more, or just sleep?
$BTC $ETH
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The Democratic Party regained control of both the House and Senate, reversing in red states like Texas and Ohio, which the Trump camp did not anticipate. The Republican Party's loss is not in slogans but in the bills: high prices, tariff backlash, nearly 90% of voters focus on living costs; the Iran conflict pushes up oil prices, with over 70% opposing; Trump's approval rating is low, with more than 40% of voters voting against him. The Democrats hold the initiative in both chambers, and Trump's last two years may face a tug-of-war and budget battles with Congress, but the veto power remains.
The market first trades on the "uncertainty landing": the Nasdaq rose 0.83%, BTC rebounded from 75,885 to 77,854, ETH at 2,293, SOL at 92.9. Note, this looks more like sentiment repair from news rather than a capital reversal: the probability of a December rate hike still hovers above 75%, funding costs have not decreased, and thefts and ETF outflows have not been resolved.
$BTC 77,854, with selling pressure totaling 22.5 million at 78,243 and 79,216 not yet dissipated, lacking new inflows to break through.
$ETH 2,293, with 7.3 million pressure near 2,327 ahead, watch for a pullback after the rise.
$SOL 92.9, dense resistance above 94.3.
Continue holding short positions, still expect a pullback to support after the rebound. Gold rose 3%, but the market is still trading on Fed rate hike expectations
On November 4, spot gold rose about 3%, reaching around $4046/oz. A weaker dollar and the US midterm election results boosted safe-haven demand, but the market remains focused on the possibility of a rate hike in December.
Gold has no interest yield, so if US Treasury yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold also increases. Even if central bank gold purchases remain strong, short-term prices may still be suppressed by rate hike expectations.
This is why gold's rise cannot be explained solely by safe-haven inflows. The dollar, real interest rates, and ETF flows all need to be observed together.
$BTC is also affected by dollar fluctuations, but its volatility and market structure differ from gold. I prefer to wait for the dollar and yields to form a sustained direction before judging whether risk assets will receive more stable support.
#全球央行Q3购金321吨，金价为何持续承压？ #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% Apple's stock price rebounds as the market reassesses margin pressure
After Apple's Q4 earnings release, the market initially focused on the next quarter's gross margin guidance, but a screenshot from November 4 shows AAPL rising about 4.28%, indicating a new shift in short-term pricing.
The company reported Q4 revenue of $114.5 billion, up 12% year-over-year, with service revenue hitting a new high. Meanwhile, the next quarter's gross margin guidance is 45% to 46%, down from this quarter's 47.9%, with memory costs and AI investments still sources of pressure.
I believe the stock rebound does not mean cost issues have disappeared; rather, investors are also reassessing iPhone demand, service revenue, and cash flow performance. Single-day gains and long-term margin trends need to be evaluated separately.
For $BTC and $ETH, Apple's market reaction can serve as a reference for tech stock risk appetite but is not a direct signal for the crypto market.
#苹果Q4营收超预期，下季度毛利率指引承压 #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% $BTC BTC daily chart low-level rebound repair market
📰 Market news summary: The market continues to play out macro liquidity expectations, with funds flowing back to bottom-fishing after a sharp drop. Bitcoin led the repair rebound, boosting market sentiment, but the overhead resistance zone remains heavy.
📌 Resistance levels
First resistance: 80800-81400 range (near EMA20 + upper Bollinger Band)
Strong resistance: 84800 previous high
📌 Support levels
First support: 79400-79700 (EMA10/EMA60 moving average support zone)
Strong support: 75690 recent low
📝 Market summary
The daily level started a rebound from the low of 75690, current price 80590, price has risen above multiple short-term moving averages; currently in a repair phase after a sharp drop, the rebound is approaching the upper resistance zone, where oscillation and pullback are likely. Focus on whether the first resistance can be effectively broken; a breakout will open further upward space, while pressure and pullback will return to consolidation. $SUI tens of millions unlocked and dumped, yet SUI stubbornly refuses to drop at 0.9.
A bunch of people smelled the opportunity and rushed to short, but the spot buying pressure directly swallowed all the sell pressure, and big holders even staked the newly unlocked coins.
Shorts are now paying interest every day, completely unable to push the price down.
With the market set up like this, as soon as the main force pushes up a bit, shorts will have to line up to cut losses and carry the rally.
#SUI
$SUI
👇$CORE When CORE DAO officially announced its preparation to move towards decentralization, I seriously studied the core token, a path that constantly balances efficiency, security, trust, and governance. The true value of decentralization is not to make the world centerless, but to make the center no longer unchallengeable. It is a path that requires technology, systems, and patience to be laid together. Moving fast does not necessarily win; moving steadily counts. Although exchanges have massively delisted core, as long as it truly moves towards decentralization, even if only one exchange remains, its market value will still be comparable to Bitcoin or Ethereum in the future! $SNDK genius trader is online～
What I said, isn't it a bull trap, then a drop, and a new low?
Don't rush, it's not the bottom yet. Once you almost have it, exit and then continue shorting on the rebound.
SNDK formed a double top breakdown on the one-hour chart, with volume probing down to 1016.3 followed by a slight rebound.
MA5/MA10 bearish pressure, currently just a corrective rebound after a big drop, not a reversal.
Resistance at 1052, 1085; rebound faces pressure, shorting opportunities remain.$BTC ETF has withdrawn 1.1 billion dollars for three consecutive days.
The market not only didn't crash, but instead, despite the selling pressure, it pulled up to 78,550.
The selling pressure is shrinking day by day, clearly losing strength.
On the surface, it looks like institutions are exiting, but underwater, some unknown forces are holding the basin and absorbing it all.
If the bears still stubbornly resist against the outflow data, they will most likely get hammered repeatedly.
#BTC
$BTC
👇Last night someone asked me: "What if the Democrats win?"
My answer was: short first, then long.
Today $BTC indeed made a deep V-shaped move, quickly rebounding from $75,738 to around $78,400.
After the election results were announced, the market was briefly worried about tighter crypto regulations and obstacles to the CLARITY Act, triggering panic selling.
But as uncertainty faded, market sentiment gradually recovered, bottom-fishing capital entered, and short covering pushed BTC to a rapid rebound.
This rally once again shows: panic often brings opportunity, but chasing highs and selling lows is the easiest way to pay the price.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #OKXOrbitIf you only look at the surface, it seems like everything has been rising these past two days, but the real question is: under the hustle and bustle, is the support thick enough? BTC has been repeatedly testing around 77000, but the rebound strength is clearly weaker than before. ETFs are still flowing out, while Strategy is accumulating chips in the opposite direction; buying and selling are stuck like this, waiting for the non-farm payrolls to give a direction. My biggest impression watching this market segment is that volatility itself is becoming the main character, not the trend. Positions with 20x leverage can float profits of over fifty points, relying on entry position, not because the market has improved, which is easily overlooked. LTC is swinging with the market, performing quite brightly, but it seems more like a follower in emotional repair, not the leader. ETH is holding firm at the 2260 level, resisting the drop; a bunch of good news is suppressed by sentiment and hasn't been released. The 200-day moving average at 2158 is the key support below. The fact that Gas fees have dropped to multi-year lows is also worth deeper thought; the chain is no longer congested, indicating that enthusiasm on the usage side hasn't returned yet. SOL is currently priced at 92, down nearly 9% in seven days; on-chain data is warming up, but the coin price is going down. This kind of mismatch is the most frustrating. The 90 level this afternoon needs close attention; if it breaks, sentiment will become even more fragile. The more bullish path lies in: not losing key support, observing capital replenishment after the non-farm payrolls release, with ETH leading sentiment and SOL leading elasticity, the repair could proceed more smoothly than expected. The risk lies in: the rebound momentum continuing to weaken, ETF outflows not stopping, and the so-called liveliness being supported by only a few tokens. Once 90 and 215Just took a glance at the $BTC market, the 77,000 round number support was directly broken, and the rebound highs keep moving lower.
The worst part isn’t even the market itself; looking at 21shares data is even more chilling. In Q3, old miners and long-term whales dumped a total of 248,000 BTC to cash out, which is nearly three times the ETF accumulation volume in the same period.
Retail investors are still bottom-fishing and taking the risk, thinking institutions are doing asset allocation, but in reality, long-term chips are fleeing wildly by leveraging liquidity. At this point, the bulls don’t even have a decent resistance; the buying power simply can’t withstand the scale of spot dumping by the whales, and the downward channel is fully open.
#BTC
$BTC
👇$NVDA 204.33｜Rally then pullback, watching 200 support
Levels Market Sentiment
Dazi, give the market some good news, don’t really let it become a rise in the east and fall in the west, bro. I trade A-shares and you never fall, now I’m trading US stocks and you start rising in the east and falling in the west?
NVDA current price 204.33, after a 4-hour high of 211.37 it pulled back, closing down -1.99%, short-term bulls got cooled off. Looking at the chart, BOLL upper band at 209.85, lower band at 202.04, current price is in the middle, EMA5/10/20 resistance around 205-206, indicating 204 area is still contested. 201.44 is previous low support, the 200 round number is even more critical. News-wise, Samsung will produce AMD and Nvidia related chips at its second factory in Texas, supply expansion expectations are somewhat bearish for scarcity, but long-term it’s about industry chain localization. The market’s real worry is AI capital expenditure marginal slowdown, sentiment shifting from optimistic to cautious. NVDA turnover 6.8 billion, turnover rate 0.14%, after a big drop with volume, now shrinking volume pullback, indicating capital divergence. Babaige’s view: don’t chase above 211 for now. Buy point waits for 200-202.04 low volume stabilization, stop loss at 198; if volume picks up and breaks above 206-209, then watch for 211.4 breakout; if it breaks below 200, may retest 195-196. Altcoin Market Observation: Bears are feasting, bulls are getting hit!😤
$TRUMP has broken below a key level, shorts are profiting big this round with nearly $4 million in gains, while longs are floating a loss of about $1.33 million. The trapped positions are too large, and the current upward momentum is insufficient. Blindly bottom-fishing is not recommended; a rebound does not necessarily mean a reversal.
$ONE has been steadily declining for over a month since the violent surge around September 23, with no clear signs of a rebound so far. The weak trend continues, making bottom-fishing very risky. It's better to wait for a clear trend to emerge before taking action.
$ACT is also in a continuous downtrend, with no obvious signs of a rally at present. Opening long positions recklessly here could easily become the next batch of trapped positions. Cautious observation is a safer approach.
The current altcoin market is definitely not a place where you can make money by just bottom-fishing. A drop doesn't mean cheap, and a rebound doesn't mean a reversal.
Patience in waiting for the trend is far more important than blindly entering the market! Bitcoin hit $80,000 and the bears got a surprise they didn’t order. 😂
$320 million in short positions liquidated in just 30 minutes.
Some traders expected a crash. Instead, Bitcoin crashed their portfolios. 💀
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto New job additions are only in the tens of thousands— is this bad news or good news?
Market expectations for October's nonfarm payrolls are not high, mainly forecasting between 50,000 and 65,000, while September's new jobs added were only 29,000. On the surface, hiring still appears weak, but judging the economy cannot rely solely on new job numbers.
There are about 7.5 million job vacancies and approximately 1.6 million layoffs, indicating that companies are neither massively expanding nor clearly entering a phase of concentrated layoffs. This state of low hiring and low layoffs may keep the job market relatively stable.
For the Federal Reserve, the most important factors are whether employment begins to deteriorate rapidly and whether wage growth continues to drive inflation. If employment remains resilient, the room for rate cuts may be limited.
I will pay attention to whether $BTC shows a volume reaction after the report is released, rather than automatically interpreting numbers below expectations as positive. The market trades on policy changes, not the numbers themselves.
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% 【BTC's strong rally triggers a "short squeeze"】BTC broke through the $80,000 mark, with nearly $146 million liquidated across the entire network in the past 4 hours. Among them, short liquidations accounted for $123 million (84%), with the largest single liquidation exceeding $11.5 million (Binance). Market sentiment is extremely bullish, shorts are being precisely targeted, reminding investors to be cautious of high leverage risks. $BTC #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% #SonyQ2GamingAndMusic
Sony’s (SONY) software and streaming platforms must provide a structural hedge against cooling PlayStation console cycles. High-margin digital content and recurring music licensing fees are the primary drivers of underlying profitability. Execution in these high-yield digital segments will determine Sony’s earnings resiliency heading into the holiday season
$SONY Following the US elections, the exit of short positions from the market has fueled a strong recovery for Bitcoin (BTC); rebounding from a low of $75,600, it has touched the $80,500–$81,000 range. Bitcoin Foundation Is this an opportunity for a rally (pump)? According to technical indicators (stochastics), Bitcoin had become "oversold"—partly due to fears surrounding the recent Binance hack—and is now staging a comeback. Mitrade +1 Key Levels (Resistance & Support): The next major target for the During the day, I happily bought $SNDK SanDisk twice, and at night I couldn't resist shorting it again. Currently, I'm floating at a 40XP loss. I'm not optimistic about tonight's opening; there were quite a few V-shaped moves during the day. Please don't let the market makers crush me!
From the recent trend, after a significant drop, SanDisk rebounded about 4.78% on November 3rd, closing at $1126.52, but the intraday high reached $1153, indicating that selling pressure above remains obvious.
I have three reasons for being bearish:
First, the previous gains were too large, and there is still pressure from profit-taking.
Second, Kioxia's cautious outlook on the NAND market is putting pressure on the entire storage sector.
Third, the market is starting to reassess the valuation of AI storage; relying solely on better-than-expected performance is no longer enough to sustain continuous stock price increases.
Tonight, the key support to watch is $1120. If it breaks, the next level to observe is around $1075. If it rebounds and breaks through $1180, it means the bearish logic is temporarily challenged, and then I can directly cut my losses!
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 November 4 $ETH Market Update
Yesterday, we reminded to watch the support around 2220. This morning, the lowest dropped to 2225, close to that support level, then rebounded to around 2266, but the market has not yet stabilized.
On the 1-hour chart, there is obvious resistance near 2318. The second rebound to around 2310 failed to break through, with heavy selling pressure above. Although there is a rebound currently, the highs continue to decline, and the short-term trend has not strengthened.
The preliminary results of the US midterm elections also brought some pressure to the market. The Democratic Party made progress in several key districts, but the final control of both chambers still needs to be confirmed. BTC simultaneously fell to around 75700, and overall market sentiment remains cautious.
Additionally, liquidation data shows ETH breaking above $2359, with mainstream CEX cumulative short liquidations totaling about $776 million;
If it falls below $2136, long liquidation intensity is about $381 million. This is only an estimate and does not mean the price will necessarily reach that point.
Trading advice: Short-term support range is 2220-2230; holding this suggests a rebound expectation, breaking below may lead to a retest near 2170 or continued decline.
Short-term resistance is seen at 2280, with strong resistance between 2300-2318. Remain cautious before a valid breakout of resistance; do not chase longs.
Those holding low-position longs can continue to hold and observe, reducing positions appropriately when rebounding to resistance areas;
Those not yet in the market should patiently wait for a stable retest or a breakout of resistance before choosing an entry opportunity.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ This sharp drop hit 2225, how many people sold at the bottom? Then it bounced back to 2266, playing out like "the bottom is here, a V-shaped rebound is coming." First it triggers longs, then scares shorts, profiting from both sides—this play is indeed ruthless.
But don’t be fooled by the intraday chart. The earlier rise to 2308 was just a bait, the big bearish candle crashing to 2225 was the real harvest. Now this rebound bullish candle shows severely shrinking volume; without big capital entering with real money, it looks more like a pump-and-dump with words. The main force is struggling to create a fake "deep V" illusion—what’s the point? Just to make those who think "it’s oversold and should rise" obediently exchange their U for high-position chips. The 2280-2300 area above is full of longs trapped who didn’t escape; who’s going to be the liberator?
The major trend is still downward. The script after emotional venting is clear: as long as it pulls up to the 2280-2300 resistance zone and clearly can’t rise further, consider it an opportunity to short. Don’t chase longs, don’t guess the bottom, wait for confirmation. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% $XRP hackers dumped 233 million coins, and with the unlocked tokens, other altcoins would have already crashed.
But $XRP not only didn’t crash, it actually rallied 3.3% against the trend.
The most amazing part is that exchange inventories keep dropping, and all the coins coming out are being swallowed by large spot holders.
The funding rate hasn’t spiked at all; this rally is purely driven by spot buying, with no leverage involved.
After the biggest selling pressure nuke has been dropped, what do the shorts have left to push down?
#XRP
$XRP
👇November 4 $ETH Market Update
Yesterday, we reminded to watch the support around 2220. This morning, the lowest dropped to 2225, close to that support level, then rebounded to around 2266, but the market has not yet stabilized.
On the 1-hour chart, there is obvious resistance near 2318. The second rebound to around 2310 failed to break through, with heavy selling pressure above. Although there is a rebound currently, the highs continue to decline, and the short-term trend has not strengthened.
The preliminary results of the US midterm elections also brought some pressure to the market. The Democratic Party made progress in several key districts, but the final control of both chambers still needs to be confirmed. BTC simultaneously fell to around 75700, and overall market sentiment remains cautious.
Additionally, liquidation data shows ETH breaking above $2359, with mainstream CEX cumulative short liquidations totaling about $776 million;
If it falls below $2136, long liquidation intensity is about $381 million. This is only an estimate and does not mean the price will necessarily reach that point.
Trading advice: Short-term support range is 2220-2230; holding this suggests a rebound expectation, breaking below may lead to a retest near 2170 or continued decline.
Short-term resistance is seen at 2280, with strong resistance between 2300-2318. Remain cautious before a valid breakout of resistance; do not chase longs.
Those holding low-position longs can continue to hold and observe, reducing positions appropriately when rebounding to resistance areas;
Those not yet in the market should patiently wait for a stable retest or a breakout of resistance before choosing an entry opportunity.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ BTC touched 80,480 then pulled back, the 76,800 bottom is considered defended
On the four-hour chart, it rose from 74,909 to 80,480, with a volatility exceeding 7%. According to Rekt Capital, there was a rebound near 76,800, but the amplitude of 5.5% is less than the 13% in mid-September, so the support strength still needs to be observed. The current price has fallen back to the 77,000 to 77,500 range; only reclaiming 80,000 would count as a sentiment recovery.A trader’s decision to sell $ETH and $SOL while keeping $BTC is less a verdict on the assets themselves than a study in how crowded positioning reshapes risk. The stated reason is unusually candid: too many buyers have piled into the same three coins, and that consensus itself becomes the hazard. When everyone leans the same way, the exit narrows. The numbers tell the story of three different outcomes from one thesis. $ETH was opened at an average of 2243.35 and sat at 2290.93, a gain of 28.21U,SLX focuses on yield, ZEC emphasizes privacy, their points of interest differ
$SLX 0.04073, up 1.5% in the last 24 hours, first understand what it actually does 🧩
Solstice handles stablecoins and yield strategies: USX is responsible for settlement, eUSX carries the yield, SLX provides ecosystem function access through staking and other mechanisms, so their uses should be distinguished.
The key is whether users will continuously lock tokens for the functions. There is another quote above 0.04, the market is recovering; what adds weight to pricing is actual usage, just giving it a fancy name doesn't help.
$ZEC 1301.77, up 7.6% in the last 24 hours, privacy is a product feature, don't just look at the label 🛡️
Zcash uses zero-knowledge proofs to validate transactions while hiding some transaction details. Privacy has functionality, no need to force explanations for the price increase.
Up 7.6% in the last 24 hours, price also retreated from 1351. Strength and divergence appear simultaneously, the upward momentum is strong, whether the pullback expands remains to be seen; privacy value can be studied, but the heat depends on trading volume.
$DOGE 0.07732, up 2.4% in the last 24 hours, interest is rising, price is moving away 🐕
Lifted from 0.0723, still in the upper range of the 24-hour interval. In the most recent full hour, it rose 2.4%, trading volume was 349.1% higher than the previous hour, pushing up with increased volume.
Short-term changes lie in volume and price, no need to forcibly promote positives. After a high of 0.07834, it retreated a bit, more like an upward move amid active trading; whether the interest holds depends on where subsequent trading volume settles.Conclusion first: The underlying stock $SNDK dropped 26.1% over five trading days, the 2x daily leveraged SNDK ETF in the US market fell from 10.40 to 5.47, a -47.4% decline; OKX's $SNXX was down 44.3% over the same period, with a 24-hour low of 5.174.
"2x" refers to daily leverage, not the entire period. On 10/30, the underlying stock was down 13.5%, while the ETF dropped 27.3%; on 11/03, the stock rose 4.8%, the ETF gained 9.5%. Compounding the daily gains and losses results in -47.6%, which matches the observed -47.4%. However, "cumulative -26.1% times 2" equals -52.1%, a 4.7 percentage point difference: daily reset and holding 2x for the entire period are not the same.
Regarding money:
① Perpetual 24-hour trading volume is $110 million, tokenized spot XSNXX only 758,000, a 145x difference. You are buying perpetuals, not SanDisk.
② During the 8-hour crash, funding fees were +0.0228%, long positions still paid; this period remains +0.020%.
③ Open interest dropped from $8.49 million to $7.48 million, down 11.9%. Price fell and positions shrank, like longs stopping out and shorts taking profits.
$SNDK had an 8:1 stock split on November 20, with the price mechanically reset that day, don't interpret it as market movement.
What do you think, is the daily reset 2x leverage a harvest or compensation? $SNXX The follow-up to the Binance incident is even more unsettling than the theft itself.
The hackers didn’t get in through some sophisticated vulnerability. First, an engineer searched for AI programming tools and downloaded a tampered installation package, which infected his work computer. Then the hackers impersonated the project lead, HR, and CEO, conducting fake interviews and coding tests to trick another engineer into downloading malicious code. Finally, using the compromised computer and internal AI tools, they obtained deployment permissions from the wallet engineer. Simply put, the security chain broke at the human level, not the technical level. Binance’s latest official update says that 98% of the affected assets have been replenished, with the remaining 2% having poor liquidity and needing to be bought slowly. The reserve proof snapshots have expanded from 10 types to 44, and generating the full ZK proof will take another 50 to 60 hours. The numbers are moving in a positive direction, but the engineering discipline issues exposed by this incident won’t be resolved just by replenishing the assets.Whale Long-Short Chaos: Shorts Trapped Nearly 100 Million, 79200 Becomes the Decisive Battle Line!
$BTC current price 78445, up nearly 2%. But behind this bullish candle lies a tragic split within the whale camp. The nominal long-short ratio is only 23.54%, seemingly dominated by shorts, but in reality, the shorts are being "tortured"!
Let's look at this extremely brutal bottom card:
🔴 Shorts (numerous but cannon fodder): 939 whales, total positions over 3.1 billion U. Average entry price 75996. They expected big profits but were brutally liquidated by this rebound, with unrealized losses soaring to 99.13 million USD, and profit ratio dropping to 39.29%. A large number of low-position shorts are trapped, extremely passive.
🟢 Longs (stuck at high positions, caught in a dilemma): 300 whales, average cost as high as 84449, currently still with unrealized losses of 57.23 million. Although some blood was regained in the rebound, the heavy overhead trapped positions mean there is seriously insufficient ammunition to break upwards.
Analysis by Sister San:
The biggest focus on the chart now is 79200! This is a dense liquidation zone for the overhead shorts. For longs to survive, they must break through here with volume, triggering a chain liquidation of shorts to fuel the rally; if they fail to break through, longs will exhaust and perish.
Trading Iron Rule:
The long-short divergence has reached a white-hot stage, so never blindly chase highs. The overhead short liquidity is a juicy target, but whether longs can consume it depends entirely on volume. Be patient and wait for a breakout at 79200; only follow after a volume-supported hold. A volume-less surge is surely a bull trap.
#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 The US votes in the midterms today.
Bitcoin was higher 12 months after every midterm since 2010: 4 of 4, median +63%.
But midterms run on a 4-year clock. So does Bitcoin's halving cycle.
That changes how to read the record. A thread 🧵Single-stock perpetual futures enter the US, with regulatory boundaries being the core issue
This time, the CFTC allows single-stock perpetual futures to be traded on registered markets that meet the conditions, but these products must comply with relevant regulatory requirements from both the CFTC and SEC, and not every trading platform can list them directly.
Stocks are securities, and futures involve derivatives regulation, so coordination between regulatory agencies is very important. Previously, some innovative products were in a state of unclear regulatory boundaries for a long time; this change means the market is beginning to try to establish a clearer framework.
However, I do not interpret regulatory approval as all products being approved. Exchange qualifications, product filings, margin requirements, and investor protections still need to be confirmed item by item.
The development of $BTC perpetual contracts has already proven that innovation in trading mechanisms brings liquidity but also amplifies risk. Clear regulation is a condition for market maturity, not a guarantee that risks disappear.
#CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货 #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% Previously, I was also quite optimistic about $XRP, but recently the market has shown a thought-provoking phenomenon: wallet numbers and on-chain transaction volumes continue to grow, ecosystem activity keeps increasing, yet the coin price remains weak.
Where exactly is the problem?
Ultimately, the key lies in the lack of a direct connection between ecosystem development and token value. No matter how well Ripple's institutional business performs, the generated revenue does not automatically flow to XRP holders. Currently, there is a lack of a stable buyback and burn mechanism, making it impossible to form sustained value support. As positive factors are gradually absorbed by the market, without new capital and value expectations to take over, the price naturally struggles to keep rising.
Now, looking at another project leaning towards traditional payment, $BCH.
From a practical application perspective, BCH is not without value. Payment platforms like BitPay and CoinGate support BCH, and merchant payment scenarios are continuously expanding. But the problem is, this narrative is no longer fresh. Compared to hot sectors like AI public chains and RWA, BCH lacks a strong new story to attract incremental capital.
Additionally, institutional capital attention is limited, ETF-related progress lacks significant breakthroughs, and overall market sentiment is not positive. Even with genuine
Ecosystem activity does not equal token appreciation, and real-world use does not equal capital inflow.
What truly determines long-term price performance is not just how many users or transaction volumes a project has, but whether ecosystem growth can truly
In the crypto market, stories are important, but value capture and capital flow are even more crucial.Beginner's Diary｜Today I got schooled by $ETH 🤯
Last night I was still studying Bitcoin, but Ethereum quietly outperformed: up about 4.94% in 24h, reaching around $2,397, while Bitcoin only gained +2.72% (TokenPost data).
What's even more interesting: ETH open interest rose 4.2%, even stronger than the 2.7% price increase (CoinDesk). In plain language: it's not just the price going up, new money is really flowing in to open positions 💸
ETH's market share also rose from yesterday by 0.22% to 10.97%.
Beginner's takeaway: when prices rise, check if "money is really coming in"—it's more useful than just watching the candlesticks. But more new money = more leverage, so when there's a spike, you better run fast 😅
Are you currently bullish on Bitcoin or Ethereum? Drop a comment below 👇
Learning check-in, not investment advice
#ETH #USMidtermElections: Democrats win control of both chambers of CongressBTC daily chart is oscillating close to the Bollinger middle band, MACD is still weak below the zero line, 76655 is the support line below, only stabilizing above 82624 will open up upward space$The most practical statement today: Futures volume has increased, but open interest hasn't followed.
The volume has expanded while open interest remains moderate, indicating that this rally is mainly due to turnover and short covering, not new leverage being added. A rebound without new money and leverage won't go far, but at least it shows that some of the previous leverage pressure has been cleared. That Wintermute statement still holds: there's almost no evidence of new funds entering the market to support a sustained recovery. Those leveraging to buy the dip have been liquidated round after round, and genuine spot demand hasn't picked up. This is the core issue right now, more practical than any narrative.$BTC $ETH
How exactly is the funding fee calculated? Many people ignore the funding fee, and as a result, even profitable trades end up earning less and less. I'll explain it to you in the simplest, most straightforward way.😃
First, every contract type has a funding fee, some settle every hour, others every 4 or 8 hours. There is a countdown timer in the upper right corner.🤨
If the funding fee is positive, and you hold a long position, when the time comes, you have to pay the short position holders. Conversely, if you hold a short position, you will receive money.😏
If the funding fee is negative, and you hold a short position, when the time comes, you have to pay the long position holders. Conversely, if you hold a long position, you will receive money.😎 Mining company Riot sold 10,599 BTC in Q1, cutting their holdings by about 79%.
The coin price just bounced back to 80,000, but miners first exchanged coins for AI electricity fees.
It's not that "miners are bearish," but that "selling power to AI is more valuable." Riot signed about a 15-year AI computing power land lease contract worth approximately $28 billion; on one hand, BTC is back above 80,000, and on the other, the mining company is rewriting BTC from "reserves" to "cash for building data centers."
Next time you see mining stocks surge while the coin price is flat, ask three questions first:
1) Are they selling coins to raise funds this week or accumulating coins?
2) Is the power contract tied to mining or AI tenants?
3) How many quarters of CapEx can their BTC inventory support?
Don't just look at green K-lines; see if miners are "exchanging coins for power."
Notes from Fu Jia's kid watching the market: a green candle doesn't mean miners are holding. Do you believe the coin accumulation story or the power story more?
$BTC #Bitcoin #MiningCompanyThree rejections since October 2025. $BTC has again retested the $75,389 Short-Term Holder Realised Price as support and bounced 4%.
Spot and institutional flows are sell heavy, but perp traders are keeping price supported. Bulls need spot buyers to make the rebound last.$6.3 billion stolen, Coinbase immediately emphasizes: 99% of customer assets are in cold wallets.
Binance suffered a hacker attack involving about $6.3 billion, while Coinbase stated it was not affected. The judgment leans bearish, impacting the trust layer of centralized exchanges. A $6.3 billion scale is not a single project vulnerability but a signal that the security system of a leading exchange has been breached. Short-term funds will likely reassess exchange custody risks, with some positions possibly shifting to cold wallets, self-custody, or platforms with stronger compliance.
Coinbase's statement is a defensive posture and also a relative beneficiary—when trust is damaged, emphasizing cold storage and asset segregation can attract risk-averse funds and institutional clients, which is a plus for COIN's relative position. However, this is a marginal benefit in terms of PR and trust, not equivalent to new on-chain demand.
Operational focus on two points: first, the follow-up progress on Binance's withdrawal and deposit suspensions and compensation plans; second, whether funds are migrating from Binance to other platforms or self-custody. Such events first hit sentiment, then talk about recovery; short-term volatility will be amplified. It is neither advisable to blindly bottom-fish in panic nor to ignore the risk of chain liquidation. Involving mainstream assets like BTC and ETH, this is a market-level risk event with a bearish bias.
Source: The BlockBTC Brief: Institutions Are Still Withdrawing, Watch for Resistance on the Rebound
On November 4, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $398.6 million. BlackRock's IBIT had a single-day outflow of approximately $405.3 million, Fidelity's FBTC bucked the trend with a slight inflow of about $6.7 million, while most other products showed limited changes. The combined outflow on Friday and Monday totaled about $1.04 billion, basically wiping out last week's inflows.
The market remains weak. BTC is currently priced around $77,010, with a 24-hour high of $78,254 and a low of $76,386, and a funding rate of about 0.01%. During the day, the price repeatedly tested the $76,400–$76,500 range, and the rebound was blocked near $77,500.
IBIT's single-day withdrawal of over $400 million indicates that institutions are still reducing exposure, not just retail sentiment. The current bottoming is not considered a trend reversal; to turn bullish, ETF outflows need to at least show signs of slowing.
In the short term, $76,500 is the support level; reduce positions if it breaks down. The first resistance is at $77,500; if it holds above, then watch $78,000. Set stop-loss below $76,200, with a target initially at $78,000, maintaining a light position.#全球央行Q3购金321吨，金价为何持续承压？ Central banks bought 321 tons of gold in Q3, but why does the gold price keep under pressure? Central banks are aggressively buying 321 tons, yet gold prices have dropped by a quarter: who exactly is "fighting" here?
In the third quarter, global central banks purchased 321 tons of gold, a 42% year-on-year increase, marking the strongest single-quarter gold buying record since the end of last year. In the past, when central banks bought this much, gold prices would have soared. But the reality is, gold prices have fallen from the year's high, dropping nearly a quarter, even breaking below the $4000 mark.
On one side, central banks are "buying up," while on the other, gold prices are "plunging"—this situation is indeed a bit contradictory.
The root of this contradiction lies in the word "interest." Central banks buy gold for "safety," for reserve diversification, and to hedge against the depreciation of fiat currency purchasing power. They look at this money over five or ten years and don't care about gold price fluctuations next month. But most money in the market doesn't think this way. After the Iran war broke out at the end of February, oil prices were pushed above $110, inflation pressures resurfaced, and market expectations for Fed rate hikes suddenly soared to 86%. The dollar became stronger, U.S. Treasury bonds started yielding interest, while gold pays zero interest. So, money that originally sought "safe haven" turned around and ran to buy U.S. Treasuries to earn interest.
What's more troublesome is that this round of geopolitical conflict transmission is completely opposite to before: once the gunfire starts, oil prices rise first; when oil prices rise, rate hike expectations follow; when rate hike expectations rise, non-yielding gold gets hit. The traditional "buy gold in troubled times" logic temporarily fails in the face of this chain.
$BTC Nonfarm payroll night, $BTC faces a big test at 78,000
Friday 21:30, US October nonfarm payrolls release. The market expects an increase of 60,000–65,000 jobs, unemployment rate at 4.2%, and futures price in about a 72% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in December. Before Powell speaks, the market votes first; 78,000 has become the dividing line between bulls and bears.
Scenario 1: Data exceeds expectations (employment > 65,000)
Data is hot, the dollar and US Treasury yields may strengthen simultaneously, putting pressure on risk assets. If BTC falls below 78,000, bears dominate, but sharp drops often see rebounds; take profits without clinging to the fight, and consider scaling out around 77,500.
Scenario 2: Data misses expectations (employment < 50,000)
Employment cools down, rate hike expectations ease, liquidity sentiment recovers, and BTC may see a rebound window. If the price climbs back above 78,500, short positions should exit decisively; don’t let a small mistake turn into a big one.
Scenario 3: Neutral data (50,000–65,000)
Bulls and bears tug-of-war, repeated consolidation around 78,000. At this time, guess less about direction, watch for confirmation, and wait for new clues from the December FOMC meeting.
In short: Nonfarm payrolls are the trigger, position sizing is the seatbelt. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期