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【Black Swan Crash, Altcoins Collapse Collectively! Will This Correction Become the Starting Point for the Next Rally?】
Binance exchange suffered a hacker theft, forcing a temporary suspension of deposits and withdrawals. As a result, Bitcoin plunged sharply, altcoins flooded the market, and panic began.
In our previous articles, we mentioned more than once that the late stage of a slow decline usually accelerates, using a rapid drop to test the bottom. We also specifically pointed out that Ethereum has already broken out of the triangle pattern, and after breaking the uptrend line, it could accelerate downward at any time. Altcoins need to be especially cautious and must not chase highs. Looking back, all of this has been confirmed!
News and events always coincidentally align with market movements to push it in the direction it should go, which is exactly what makes this market interesting!
Currently, Bitcoin has entered the expected support range around 76,000. However, considering the impact of this black swan event on market sentiment, we need to place the support at a more extreme level. In other words, 76,000 may be broken. The key is to observe the support near the previous low around 75,000, where there is a high probability that this rapid sell-off will end.
On the news front, pay close attention to whether there are chain reactions following this theft incident and how it affects overall market liquidity. If there are no cascading exchange collapses, Bitcoin stabilization can be expected, the overall bubble will be cleaned up more thoroughly, and the market will be ready for the next rally!
Trading advice: Friends with small positions can consider adding to their holdings
$BTC $ETH $UNI MARA Holdings transferred an additional 1,000 bitcoins to BitGo (approximately $80.66 million).
Following a previous transfer of 1,000 bitcoins to BitGo, the bitcoin mining company MARA Holdings has transferred another 1,000 bitcoins to BitGo.
• Latest transfer: 1,000 bitcoins (approximately $80.66 million)
• Receiving location: BitGo, a custodian and a common venue for executing large sales transactions.
• MARA has not yet officially confirmed whether this is a sale or merely a transfer to a custody wallet.
Seeing two consecutive transfers of 1,000 bitcoins each, I tend to believe MARA is gradually selling off its bitcoin holdings rather than transferring casually for fun. I think they are likely raising operating funds or investing in expansion; this sporadic small-scale selling pressure makes it difficult for bitcoin to break through the $80,000 mark. However, there is no definitive news yet, so I cannot jump to conclusions. I will continue to monitor developments to see if there are more transfers. $BTC
People believe MARA is gradually selling its assets or simply changing custody locations.Don't try to catch the bottom of AEON!
Just look at the market chart, this wave dropped straight down from the high point, falling nearly 18% in one day. It plunged from around 0.03 to as low as 0.02001 in a short time. Such a sharp drop is definitely not a bottom formed by grinding.
Looking at the liquidation data makes it even clearer: in the past 24 hours, the vast majority of liquidations were long positions, totaling about 162,200, while short position liquidations are almost negligible. Simply put, a large number of bottom catchers and long traders have already been wiped out by this drop. The funding rate has also been falling continuously and is now negative, indicating the market is overall bearish and funds are not rushing in to catch the dip.
This is the harsh reality for small-cap new coins: it looks like a steep drop and you think you're getting a bargain, but there is actually no strong support below. Once it continues to crash down, liquidity shrinks and you can't even escape. What we see now is just a brief rebound after a sharp drop, not a signal of a bottom. People often mistake taking profit for being bearish, and I almost thought so at first glance. On the contrary, I prefer to see it as risk reduction rather than a directional bearish flip.
Core Trader 14 closed about 25% of this 15x leveraged ETH long position this time, realizing approximately $11,000 in profit.
First, only a quarter was reduced, so it can't be seen as a complete exit; second, leverage amplifies the impact of drawdowns on margin, so partial profit-taking has a risk control logic. I will watch how the remaining position is handled and am not in a hurry to label it as bearish.$BTC
Strategy's record quarterly profit mainly comes from Bitcoin revaluation gains.
The company announced a quarterly profit of 19.5B USD, but it is mainly from Bitcoin fair value revaluation, not cash flow; the BTC yield remains negative for the year.
I am cautious: the book profit is insufficient to reverse the market trend, both 1H and 4H trends are weak, and the price is below the 78,280.0 support level. I will watch to see if it can recover.
OKX data: BTC 78,253.30 USDT, 24h -2.55%, volume 1.05B USDT.
Do you think the book profit can improve the market's view of its financial quality?
Not investment advice. DYOR.
#USCorePCERisesTo3.1% Today Binance was hacked for $6.3 billion, the largest hacker attack in history!
Among the stolen assets, $3 billion has been frozen, and Binance promises to compensate all user losses.
The attack report is not yet out, and the details of the theft are not fully clear,
Affected by the hacker attack,
$BTC fell below 77K, the market fear & greed index dropped to 29,
In the last 24 hours, 235,928 people were liquidated, totaling $1.496 billion,
The largest single liquidation was $11.0867 million.
The negative impact brought by the hacker attack
is not just that a platform was hacked and assets lost,
but a severe blow to confidence in the entire crypto market.
To outsiders, the crypto world really seems too dangerous,
Hacker attacks happen frequently, and hackers can steal anything.🔥77000 lost, BTC bulls got hit hard again! From around 81970, it dropped all the way down, hitting a low of 76472, a nearly $5900 decline, enough to quickly cool down short-term market sentiment.
📉 The current 15-minute trend is very weak, the lower Bollinger Band has been breached, and RSI is severely oversold. There are two possibilities here: a technical rebound after a sharp drop, or a weak rebound followed by further downward search for support.
⚠️ My focus is not on guessing the lowest point, but on whether 77000 can be reclaimed. If it can't hold above, don't rush to be bullish; if it recovers effectively and stabilizes, then consider whether the rebound has sustainability.
💬 Brothers, are you more worried about continued decline now, or do you think a rebound could come anytime after the oversold condition? #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Bitcoin trades around the clock, but market participation and liquidity can vary. During thinner conditions, price may move sharply around important levels. My weekend checklist: 🔹 Check order-book liquidity 🔹 Monitor sudden volume changes 🔹 Avoid oversized positions 🔹 Watch for false breakouts 🔹 Keep risk limits consistent A fast candle doesn't automatically mean a strong trend has started. Stay selective and protect your capital. #BTC #BitcoinWeekend #CryptoTrading #RiskControlThree storage and semiconductor coins, none rushed to move today
$SNDK 1,369.3, can SanDisk's storage business high growth continue? 💾
SanDisk makes NAND flash, 1369.3 fell 0.82% today. The storage cycle is recovering, AI servers' demand for SSDs is rising, but SanDisk's stock price already reflects expectations. The market is asking if the high growth can continue next quarter.
$QQQ 717.28, Nasdaq ETF fell 0.86% today 📊
QQQ tracks the Nasdaq 100 index, 717.28 fell 0.86% today. Google's earnings missed expectations, tech stocks under pressure. But AI computing demand is strong, Amazon AWS earnings are coming later, QQQ is just a small pullback.
$SKHYNIX 1,144.2, Hynix is winning orders on HBM 🧠
SK Hynix makes HBM high bandwidth memory, 1144.2 rose 0.43% today. Hynix's HBM4 orders exceeded expectations, the most certain winner in the storage cycle. But its tokenized assets have average liquidity on OKX.
#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.A setup that looks attractive on a short timeframe may conflict with the larger trend. Before entering a trade, I check: 📊 Daily trend direction 📊 Four-hour market structure 📊 Nearby liquidity zones 📊 Major support and resistance 📊 Whether momentum supports the setup When multiple timeframes agree, the trade idea may have stronger confirmation. When they conflict, reducing exposure or waiting can make sense. More indicators aren't always better. Better context is. #BTC #MultiTimeframeAnalysEveryone else is looking down, but XPURR is the only one looking up. When the market was all red, it climbed from 9.663 to 11.622, rising about 20.27% in 24h, with a volatility of about 28.76%, even touching a high of 12.336. This scene is honestly a bit absurd—while others are falling, it's bouncing.
What's even more absurd is that the trading volume is only about 927k USDT. With such a light market cap, it shakes with just a breeze. Is someone preemptively setting the narrative, or is the supply so low that a small push sends it up? These two scenarios feel very different—one like "I seem to know something," the other like "just pushing it for fun." 😅
Taking a quick look at the market: BTC dropped about 2.41%, BNB about 5.00%, both lying there; HYPE rose about 17.14% and is also bouncing, but it's not the main character today. The main storyline is simple: the market is all red, but XPURR stubbornly charts a green path. The absurdity lies right here.
Just want to ask: Are you seeing this XPURR move as a rebound, or the start of a new story?
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 $xPURR $BTC $BNB I almost mistook the leverage multiplier for a confidence score, but then I thought: by that logic, pressing the elevator button to the 10th floor means you've reached the peak of your career 😂. Core Trader 90 (0x97580b…1967d) just opened a long position of 500 $HYPE with 10x leverage.
I prefer to interpret it as a directional bet rather than a declaration of "long-term optimism." Leverage only amplifies gains and losses; it doesn't prove foresight. Looking at this position alone, without knowing the wallet's total assets and other hedges, you can't judge how heavy the bet is; the data also doesn't provide a holding period. Even though it's a long position, short-term trading and long-term judgment are completely different matters. I'll reserve a spot for "intent unknown" and won't rush to write an investment biography for the address.
To distinguish between short-term probing and trend betting, which would you rather check: the subsequent holding duration or other hedging positions? Choose one; don't let a single leverage button act as the wallet's spokesperson.Not all Bitcoin rallies have the same foundation. A move supported by spot-market demand can tell a different story from one driven mainly by leveraged futures positioning. 🔍 My comparison: • Spot volume and demand • Futures open interest • Funding rates • Liquidation data • Price reaction at resistance If futures activity surges while spot demand remains weak, I become more cautious about chasing the move. The strongest setups deserve evidence from multiple sides of the market. #BTC #SpotTradi【3 Billion Earned Back in One Year, What About Liquidations?】
Binance's latest announcement on October 30 states that the incident affected about 6.3 billion USD, with approximately 3 billion USD frozen on-chain, and promises that all losses will be covered by the SAFU fund and company funds.
On the other hand, the market has already seen over 1.5 billion USD in $BTC and $ETH contract positions forcibly liquidated, of which about 1.3 billion USD were long positions. Binance says user asset losses are covered by SAFU and the company, which addresses compensation for stolen assets. However, due to the panic caused by the security incident, BTC dropped, altcoins plunged, and leveraged positions were forcibly closed. These trading losses are not automatically included in Binance's compensation scope. The exchange can fill the gap with a year's profit, but those liquidated may not have a next year.
The most ironic part is here: the platform's losses can be calculated with revenue and profit, but retail investors' losses may be wiped out entirely. Whether Binance can earn it back in a year is certainly important; but what truly chills traders this time is that after one security incident on the platform, the ones who end up paying the price might be a large group who didn't even participate in the theft.FOMC Outcome: No Rate Hike ≠ Signal to Buy, Wait for PCE
The FOMC results are out, with rates held at 3.75%—4.00%, as expected. But guys, don’t take “no rate hike” as a direct green light.
$BTC first surged to 81,700, then dropped back to 80,500, and now bounced near 81,000—a typical buy on expectations, sell on reality scenario—the no rate hike was already priced in, so the actual announcement can’t push it further. More importantly, the vote was 10 to 2, with two officials advocating a rate hike this time, indicating more internal hawks than the market expects; Waller emphasized in the press conference that inflation remains high, which is not just lip service.
I don’t recommend chasing longs at this level. 81,700 is today’s high, with a lot of resistance above. Tonight at 20:30 there’s the core PCE, expected at 3.1%, higher than the previous value; if realized, 81,000 might not hold.
Conclusion: Don’t bet on direction prematurely, wait for the PCE before making moves. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 #英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌 Why is it only 93? If I remember correctly, Google dropped 7%. It's already up to 96, Intel has dropped 20%, you could almost say it's a sure win. Is everyone really that confident they can make 10 percentage points a day by market making back and forth? I find liquidity in all trading pairs is especially poor, and everyone is placing orders. I just place 20 to 30 thousand and it doesn't get filled even after an hour Microsoft’s Azure growth accelerated. Keeping pace with demand is an infrastructure challenge as well as a sales story.
Fiscal Q1 2027 results for the quarter ended Sep 30 included:
• Revenue: $92.3B, up 19% YoY
• Operating income: $45.9B, up 21%
• GAAP net income: $36.6B, up 32%
• GAAP diluted EPS: $4.92
Azure revenue grew 48% in reported and constant-currency terms, versus 42% in the prior quarter. Microsoft Cloud revenue reached $63.9B, up 30%. Azure is included in that total, not a separatSanDisk's new quarterly report is out: revenue about $11 billion, a 23% quarter-over-quarter increase; next quarter's revenue guidance is $12.2 billion to $12.6 billion. At least from the company's current assessment, growth has not stopped.
What I pay more attention to is the internal disparity. Data center revenue grew 61% quarter-over-quarter, while consumer business revenue dropped 29% quarter-over-quarter. This performance is hard to explain by saying "all storage demand is recovering."
Purchasing for AI data centers and ordinary consumers buying storage products are showing different rhythms. Looking at SanDisk, research focus needs to be adjusted accordingly: the demand, product delivery, and follow-up arrangements for data center customers explain the current growth better than the consumer side's activity.
This makes me optimistic and more sensitive to the sources of growth. Benefiting concentratedly from a strong demand category can indeed push performance quickly; meanwhile, the impact of changes in customer purchasing rhythms is also worth continuous tracking.
I am willing to admit that this result is more convincing than simply shouting "AI needs storage." The company has already delivered revenue and provided further growth guidance.
What I hope to see next is that this demand can be continuously realized. Stock splits will change the appearance of the per-share price, but whether the data center business can continue to deliver will affect future profitability.
#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ The coin price went up, does that mean I outperformed?
When doing spot trading reviews, I look at how much I earned and also ask: during the same period, how did the selected benchmark asset perform?
For example, suppose the coin I follow rose by 10%, while Bitcoin rose by 20% in the same period. In USD terms, it went up; but relative to Bitcoin, its performance actually lagged. The price ratio dropped by about 8.3%.
This doesn’t mean every trade must outperform Bitcoin, but it reminds me to clarify what I’m comparing before reviewing. You can’t look at USD when making money and then switch to a more flattering benchmark when lagging.
I write down the benchmark and time frame at the start of recording, then consider fees, changes in capital invested, and drawdowns during the period. If the risks taken on both sides differ, you can’t just compare final gains.
Only this way can I distinguish whether my choices brought extra value or if I mainly just followed the market trend.
When you review your trades, do you focus more on absolute returns or relative performance against a benchmark?📊 BTC earnings and others, ENA benefits from interest rate dividends, HYPE sees capital rush
$BTC｜81511 📈
After a week of bottoming, a rebound arrives. The market focus bets on Strategy's earnings report, with capital mainly paying attention to its BTC holdings' unrealized gains; PCE is only a short-term catalyst, the main event is tomorrow's earnings report.
$ENA｜0.21129 🌾
Up 7.69%. PCE rise extends the high interest rate cycle, highlighting the yield advantage of interest-bearing stablecoins, driving the coin price higher.
$ASTER｜0.7176 🛰️
Multi-chain contract DEX, up 1.93%. Trading is light and liquidity is thin, considered a passive follow-up increase with no independent catalyst yet.
$HYPE｜93.548 🚀
Surged 17.15%, trading volume expanded to 655 million. On-chain derivatives platform, token enjoys fee sharing; the sustainability of this big bullish candle remains to be verified. Strategy’s record Q3 profit puts Bitcoin valuation gains and treasury financing in the same frame.
For the quarter ended Sep 30, the company reported:
• Net income: $19.53B
• Net income attributable to common stockholders: $19.12B
• GAAP diluted EPS: $44.75
• Digital asset gains: $20.91B
• Software revenue: $125.4M, down about 3% YoY
Bitcoin rose 43% during Q3, providing context for the valuation gains. These earnings reflect the quarter ended Sep 30, not subsequent price movements.
Fair-value gains are not cash proceeds from selling BTC. They can increase reported profit while holdings remain intact. Lower prices in a later reporting period can have the opposite effect, even without a sale.
Strategy’s Oct 25 treasury update showed:
• BTC holdings: 848,517, up 26% year to date
• Bitcoin purchases: $14.33B year to date
• Capital raised: $21.23B year to date
For common shareholders, total BTC holdings matter alongside share issuance, preferred dividends and interest obligations. Treasury growth alone does not show how value changes on a per-share basis.
Strategy also reported $5.07B in USD assets and estimated 3.4 years of coverage for dividend and interest obligations. STRC preferred-share repurchases totaled $2.04B, including shares not yet settled as of Oct 25.
The coverage estimate adds a liquidity perspective to the profit headline. Its usefulness depends on how resources and obligations evolve. Repurchasing preferred shares also represents a different capital-allocation choice from adding BTC.
The quarter combines record earnings with an expanding treasury and active funding management. The next assessment involves more than Bitcoin’s direction: valuation changes, capital raising and recurring obligations all help explain the financial picture.
What will matter most for Strategy’s next quarter: BTC prices, treasury growth or funding costs?
#StrategyQ3ProfitSurges $SUI, can the rise in contract activity prove that there is spot demand for SUI? Recent market statistics show an increase in SUI derivatives trading, but high trading volume itself may come from hedging and short-term leverage, which does not equal long-term capital buying. A true trend requires confirmation from spot support, ecosystem usage, and fees together. If spot trading volume and on-chain activity improve simultaneously without excessive open interest expansion, the rebound quality is higher; if only contract volume rises while spot continues to weaken, the market should be viewed as high-volatility trading rather than a fundamental strength shift.A single liquidation of about $480,000 made me feel this news is more like a position stress test rather than a bullish victory declaration. When I scroll through liquidation news, I usually look for the largest one first: the weight of a big order often changes the overall impression of the data set.
According to publicly available data from OKX, in the past hour, there were 31 liquidations of SOL USDT perpetual contracts, totaling at least $830,000, with short positions accounting for about $810,000 and long positions about $20,000. The largest single liquidation already accounts for more than half of the disclosed total, so I am more concerned about the impact of position concentration rather than hastily interpreting it as a unanimous bullish market.
My judgment is that this data set serves as a stronger warning about leverage risk than an indicator of market direction. The concentration of amounts means that a few positions can significantly amplify the total liquidation amount, which cannot be directly equated to a large number of participants changing their views. According to my speculation, if the short liquidations triggered by the rise lead to concentrated short covering, then short-term buying pressure may be amplified; however, this passive buying cannot be directly taken as evidence of long-term capital entering the market.
For someone like me who analyzes information, the key is not to read risk liquidation as trend confirmation. If you could add one piece of information to this liquidation record, what would you most want to know to determine whether this impact has sustainability? I’m a line-drawing hermit; no matter how diligently I draw lines, I wouldn’t dare take a large order as the directional answer. 📈 When encountering such a long position, I first look at the price relative to moving averages, whether the breakout is supported by volume, and if the pullback can hold the previous structure.
Core Trader 74 just opened a long on $ETH with 25x leverage, a nominal position of about $284,600. This entry feels very aggressive to me, but a large amount doesn’t equal a good position; this monitoring alone doesn’t reveal the technical basis.
My judgment is that this trade needs timing confirmation rather than directional faith: a breakout with volume is more convincing, and a pullback that holds provides structural support; at 25x leverage, a roughly 4% adverse move could consume an amount equivalent to the initial margin, and actual liquidation also depends on margin mode and other factors. I will continue to wait for volume-price confirmation and pullback answers, not imagining win rates for large positions.The Binance situation will only be clear on November 1st
Binance's official update this afternoon: Preliminary indication points to a DevOps engineer's laptop being hacked, with the attacker submitting unauthorized withdrawals via service containers. The official statement says there is no evidence of private key leakage. The total impact of the incident is about $6.3 billion, with approximately $3 billion frozen (Tether froze over 1.567 billion USDT, Circle about 823 million USDC). SAFU and company funds are covering the losses; deposits and withdrawals remain suspended. He Yi stated that withdrawals will resume after a security scan is completed, with no set timeline. BNB dropped about 8% in 24 hours, BTC is around 78,000.
The hacker's actions reveal a lot: they forcibly converted 435 million USDT into 160,000 ETH, willing to lose about 70 million to escape stablecoin freezing; about 460,000 ETH remain untouched in a new address, and 18,270 BTC were split into 19 parts.
The real verification will be on November 1st: the emptied wallet is exactly the one listed in the October 1st reserve proof, when the ETH reserve ratio was exactly 100.00%, with almost zero buffer; this time about 204,500 ETH were transferred out, accounting for about 5.6% of the reserve, dropping the backing ratio to about 94%. When the new snapshot is released, whether the gap is filled or not will speak for itself.
$BTC $BNB #Binance xINTC is showing a sharp drop to 71.91 USDT after recent bad news about factory shutdowns hurting server CPU shipments. Looking at past movement, the price dropped from highs near 125.92 USDT down to a low of 69.73 USDT. Moving averages like MA5 at 84.40 and MA20 at 90.71 sit well above the current price, showing a strong downtrend. Volume spiked during this big red candle, meaning heavy selling pressure. Will xINTC bounce back toward 80 or drop further? What is your best all-time prediction forBTC and ETH 1h liquidations lean towards short positions, but extending to 4h and 24h, the liquidation amounts for long positions remain higher; CORE leans towards long positions across all three time windows. In the same set of statistics, changing the time window and cryptocurrency shows different pressure directions. BTC: 1h liquidations total 12,148,100 U, with longs at 267,300 U and shorts at 11,880,800 U; 4h total 47,473,200 U, longs 27,667,400 U, shorts 19,805,800 U; 24h total 480 million U, longs 410 million U, shorts 76,667,800 U. Short-term shorts are under pressure, but this does not change the pattern of greater losses for longs over longer windows. ETH shows a similar contrast. 1h liquidations total 7,087,100 U, longs 531,500 U, shorts 6,555,500 U; 4h total 64,106,400 U, longs 50,035,000 U, shorts 14,071,300 U; 24h total 370 million U, longs 300 million U, shorts 61,487,500 U. CORE does not show concentrated short liquidations: 1h and 4h windows both only 457.24 U, all from longs, shorts zero; 24h total 140,800 U, longs 140,600 U, shorts 253.48 U. It diverges from mainstream coins in liquidation direction, but fewer short liquidations do not directly imply that shorting is safer. My view. What is noteworthy in this data set is the relationship between windows. The 1h window is contained within the 4h and 24h windows, so the three windows cannot be summed, nor can onlyKey Point: The ghost story is more than halfway through, but dawn is near!
10.30｜US Stock Trading Notes
👻 Amazon continues the AI cash flow ghost story following Google.
Intel's earnings are solid but lowered its Q4 guidance.
I think the story is almost told, but the risks may not be fully released yet. Referring to Meta and Google's trends, the market will likely continue to drop at the open.
🔥 So what next?
Tonight, the US stock market will likely still open lower under pressure, but $QQQ is already close to the previous key support near 700, so don't chase the short.
Focus on the 699-705 range for QQQ. On the upside, first watch 711–715, and only consider revising the trend judgment if it stabilizes above 726–728.
More importantly, the October rate decision has been settled, and the core ghost story for the next phase will shift to the November 3 midterm elections.
If Trump chooses to start a war after the election, with East Asia's strategic oil reserves depleted and forced to buy oil, $CL going above 150 is quite normal.
What’s really worth watching is how funds will reprice after the election results.
🎯 My choice: Keep a large position on the sidelines and lightly try going long on $QQQ to bet on a rebound.
The market is short on cash, financing pressure is huge, and companies with cash flow pressure cannot be valued with bull market support, like $MRVL having little money but still wanting to acquire $lite.
🐱 The cat says: At this point, find a safe place to sleep first. 🐾The Bank of Japan did not raise interest rates today but said something it hadn't said in thirteen years.
The interest rate remains at 1.25%, still the highest since 1995. The decision was 8 to 1, with board member Takada voting against, wanting to raise it directly to 1.5%. More importantly, the statement said that Japan's inflation has "generally met" the 2% target, the first time since the target was set in 2013.
The confidence is based on data. Core inflation in September was 2.1%, the highest this year, exceeding expectations; real wages in August rose 1.5% year-on-year, marking eight consecutive months of increase. Another factor not included is that the energy subsidies from the metropolitan government have suppressed the CPI; once the subsidies are withdrawn, the numbers will only be higher. Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki also said in early parliament sessions that Japan is already at the "doorstep of wage-driven sustained inflation."
CNBC asked 16 economists, all of whom believe the central bank is paving the way for a rate hike in December or January next year, with 13 expecting this round to stop between 1.75% and 2%, roughly by mid-2027.
The relationship with the US stock market and the crypto space lies in funding costs. The Federal Reserve is holding steady, but the market is still betting on a rate hike in December; Japan will also raise rates, and if both sides tighten together, the world's cheapest yen money will no longer be cheap. The arbitrage trades borrowing yen to buy US stocks or crypto fear this scenario the most.
Takada's vote basically opened the door for December. If both the US and Japan act in December, the valuations of tech stocks and Bitcoin will need to be recalculated; if Japan delays until January, the arbitrage trades get to breathe for another month. The real focus should be on the yen—the faster it appreciates, the more urgent the forced liquidations will be. $BTC Bought several coins, does that count as diversification?
Suppose I hold several spot assets and also open a few contract positions, the portfolio list looks quite diverse. But I would ask again: are they all betting on the same thing?
For example, if they all belong to the same ecosystem, rely on the same wave of hype, or the opening reason is "the market will rise next." Different names, but when facing the same bad news, their reactions might be very similar.
So when I organize my positions, I don’t just classify by coin type, I also note what each position fears most: ecosystem issues, liquidity contraction, or overall market weakness.
If both spot and contracts are going in the same direction, I also view them together to avoid the illusion that each side’s position is small when looking at separate pages.
Of course, relationships between different assets can change, and I won’t draw permanent conclusions based on the past few days’ trends. What I care more about is how much the entire account might be affected if the same adverse situation occurs.
Is your portfolio diversified just by name, or are the underlying reasons different as well? $BTC US inflation rose to 3.6%, but BTC, which claims to be "anti-inflation," actually dropped 2.2%.
Last night at 20:30 PCE was released → Today at 12:30 (OKX prices):
✅ Gold -0.7%
✅ S&P 500 -0.8%
✅ Nasdaq 100 -1.9%
✅ BTC -2.2%
✅ ETH -3.3%
No contradiction. Inflation rises → December rate hike expectations heat up → borrowing becomes more expensive → the most volatile assets are sold first. Core PCE at 3.1%, moving further away from the Fed's 2% target.
"BTC anti-inflation" refers to scarcity over a ten-year horizon, not the price movement on the night of data release. In the short term, it behaves more like a highly volatile tech stock.
Data: BEA/Reuters, OKX prices, not investment advice $ETH
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Google has fallen from a high of 408 earlier this year to the current 282, a pullback of as much as 30%. Is it worth buying the dip?
First of all, such a large bearish candlestick usually has strong continuation. There is a 90% probability that this is not the bottom. Just yesterday, it dropped 12 points. The core reason is the recently released Q3 earnings report, which had several negative factors concentrated:
1. AI search mode (AI Overview) has increased user queries, but there are fewer ads in AI Q&A, resulting in lower monetization efficiency, and ad revenue growth is below expectations;
2. This quarter's capital expenditure was $51.4 billion, mainly invested in TPU computing power and AI infrastructure, which consumed operating cash flow;
3. Profits were dragged down by losses from equity investments, with large unrealized losses in the fair value of holdings such as SpaceX, combined with EU fines, further depressing net profit;
Whether it can rebound depends on the cycle! Google is still a global giant with ample cash reserves. Such earnings-driven valuation cuts will definitely go through a period of gradual decline and volatility.
Buying in at market price would be a very uncomfortable holding experience, so scaling in is the best approach. Personally, I would consider building positions in three batches at 280, 250, and 210, bottom-fishing like Buffett, waiting to return to the peak!
The above only represents personal trading views and does not constitute any investment advice!"To pour some cold water first, opening a large long position does not mean having an advantage in direction. Core Trader 90 just used 10x leverage to go long on HYPE, with a nominal position of about $46,300. I won’t give extra credit to a bullish judgment just because this wallet made a move.
I have two concerns: the nominal position is a leverage-amplified exposure, not principal; it looks eye-catching but doesn’t prove how confident the trader is; if the margin remains unchanged, a 1% adverse price movement corresponds to about a 10% margin loss, not including fees. This is a simplified calculation, not the liquidation line. If the price really drops, the hardest hit are those who left no buffer and chased the long.
Of course, he might be right. If the price rises later and the buy orders can still hold during pullbacks, I will reassess my cautious judgment. For now, I want to observe how this position handles headwinds rather than celebrate it prematurely.#Coinbase integrates Deribit, can Q3 revenue improve?
$COIN Q3 2025 summary
Revenue $1.9 billion (+25% QoQ). Trading revenue $1 billion (+37%) on $295 billion volume. Deribit contributed $52 million in 47 days; institutional revenue $135 million (+122%). Derivatives contracts reached $840 billion notional value.
Optimistic: USDC $15 billion on-platform + $53 billion off-platform = stablecoin revenue $355 million.
Yet?💡PCE beats expectations, funds ignore negative news, five assets recover simultaneously.
$BTC｜81511 📊
Battled back and forth around the 80000 mark for a whole week; after the data release, funds actively tested upward. Macro negative factors no longer suppress the market, short-term sentiment warms up.
$ETH｜2358 ⚡
Rebounded in sync with the broader market. The staking ecosystem continues to accumulate, with validators and staking pool sizes steadily increasing, representing a long-term gradual buildup; this round of rise is mainly driven by risk appetite recovery leading to a Beta rally.
$SOL｜102.25 🚀
Firmly holding the 100 support level. After the new consensus went live, network stability has significantly improved, on-chain active addresses continue to recover, fundamentals are quietly repairing, and the resilience is worth ongoing tracking.
$OKB｜113.69 🔴
Shows an independent trend with three consecutive gains. The positive impact of OKX collaborating with ICE and Trade.xyz to launch perpetual contracts continues to ferment, carrying its own narrative drive, no longer fully dependent on the major market.
$RE｜0.375 🛡️
Maintains sideways consolidation today. An insurance protocol focusing on automatic compensation, the compensation fund pool is still expanding; however, low trading volume and weak order book liquidity mean that to break away from the broader market for an independent trend, a major on-chain event catalyst is still needed.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Who exactly caused the 5000-point drop last night? I went through three suspects.
First, earnings reports. The Nasdaq fell 1.38% last night, Amazon dropped 4.25% right after its earnings report, and tech stocks have been getting hit all week. They played a part, but only as accomplices.
Second, inflation. The core PCE for September rose to 3.1%, overall PCE rose to 3.6%, and there were still two votes in the decision for an immediate rate hike. This is the mastermind because it changed expectations for December. Everyone thought the rate hikes were over, but now they see there’s more to come.
Third, leverage. This is the amplifier. The rates have been positive continuously, bulls kept paying the rent and refused to give up. They couldn’t break through 82,000, and once 79,200 was broken, forced liquidations triggered in a chain reaction. More than half of the 5000-point drop was caused by this group stepping on themselves.
So don’t just blame earnings reports. Earnings alone can’t cause such a deep drop. It’s a combination of expectation reversal and leverage clearing out, working together.
But there are two good signals today. Bitcoin has pulled back from 76,519 to 78,371, the old dense area at the end of September, showing real support. HYPE is even more ridiculous; despite the market crash, it’s still up 17 points, indicating that funds are not fleeing entirely—some are hiding, and some are entering.
My view is this is a clearing, not the end of the world. But don’t rush to go all in right after the clearing; wait until prices stabilize.
What do you all think? Has this drop bottomed out?
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $BTC $ETH $HYPE ETF is coming in, leverage is retreating, the "bottom" of this rebound has changed hands
A quick look at the market: BTC is hovering around 78,391, ETH at 2,247, SOL at 97.37. On the surface, it’s a rebound, but breaking down the capital structure, the flavor has changed.
BTC: 78,200 is the boundary between bulls and bears. Above that, watch the 80,000 round number. ETF inflow of 137 million in one day is short-term fuel, but the cumulative net outflow in October means the rally lacks volume and is a false breakout.
ETH: 2,250 is the psychological bottom line. ETF has had net outflows for four consecutive weeks, with BlackRock’s ETHA seeing a single-day outflow of over 100 million. If 2,250 doesn’t hold, the next support is at 2,200.
SOL: 100 has turned from support into resistance. ETF bleeding + shrinking on-chain transaction volume; if 97.37 doesn’t close back above this level intraday, the cost-effectiveness of chasing longs is very low.
Summary
Macro is holding steady, capital is internally divided, don’t mistake the rebound for a reversal.
This is only a market record and does not constitute investment advice.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高
#OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场
#英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌 Has my on-chain balance increasing really meant I've made a profit?
When organizing on-chain assets, I also open the borrowing page. Just looking at wallet balances sometimes makes me mistake borrowed funds as my own growth.
For example: originally having $10,000 in assets, after collateralizing and borrowing $4,000 in stablecoins, the stablecoins remain in the wallet. Combining the collateralized assets and wallet balance shows $14,000 in assets, but there is also a $4,000 liability. Ignoring interest and fees, net assets have not actually increased.
If the borrowed funds are then used to buy other coins, the asset page might look busier, but the price volatility risk also changes.
So in my review, I record assets, liabilities, interest, and new deposits simultaneously, and also check for any double counting between deposit certificates and the underlying assets they represent.
Borrowing itself does not generate profit. To determine if I actually earned during this period, I first exclude changes caused by deposits and borrowed funds.
When you calculate on-chain earnings, do you include liabilities across different protocols together?Including this Lazarus Group attack on Binance, this hacker organization has caused more than $13 billion in damage to the financial world.
Starting from 2009 with DDoS attacks on US and South Korean government websites and Sony Pictures, then mid-term attacks on Vietnam, Ecuador, and Bangladesh Bank.
Then, with the rise of crypto, they fully shifted to generating revenue through the crypto space.
Their advanced technology is certainly terrifying, but the most important thing is that Lazarus Group is backed by the North Korean government and is completely fearless of any law enforcement agencies.
This time Binance was hacked, marking Lazarus Group's biggest haul yet, but it definitely won't be the last.Gemini co-founder said that Zcash doesn't need to redo its governance mechanism; the core is still privacy protection. My first reaction was that the privacy narrative has someone backing it again, but has the market already priced this in? Just looking at this statement, I really can't say. The interesting detail is this: agreeing that privacy has value is not the same as being willing to buy ZEC. After reading this, do people want to study the privacy features or just check the price directly?I see large position openings like watching someone move a piano: it's very loud, but you can't judge the strength just by the volume 😂. Core Trader 31 just opened a long $BTC position with 20x leverage, nominal position about $600,200, this time moving the price volatility.
My judgment: this is an amplified directional bet, not a market confirmation. Estimating margin by dividing nominal value by leverage, the margin is about $30,000, not equivalent to putting out $600,000 cash to buy coins; if the price moves 1% against the position, the loss is about $6,000, which is 20% of the margin above, excluding fees for now. The material also doesn't provide stop-loss arrangements, so I wouldn't interpret the long position as able to withstand drawdowns directly.
For this kind of monitoring, I prefer to see how the position is managed afterward. Would you choose A to watch if this address reduces its position, or B to watch if the price can follow the bulls—watch the piano mover's hands, or listen if the market provides accompaniment?In this 4-hour contract statistics, BTC, ETH, and SOL all recorded gains, but the position directions were not consistent: BTC and SOL longs slightly dominated, while ETH leaned toward shorts. The original description noted a slight rebound after long liquidations, narrowing the gap between longs and shorts, and judged that shorts entered during the rebound to suppress the market. BTC: Price at the time was 78339.4, up +1.73%; longs 9.82 billion, accounting for 51.07%; shorts 9.41 billion, accounting for 48.93%. Longs lead, but the advantage is small. ETH: Price at the time was 2243.2, up +1.51%; longs 6.66 billion, accounting for 49.38%; shorts 6.83 billion, accounting for 50.62%. Price increase and short dominance appeared simultaneously, with direction divergence still present. SOL: Price at the time was 97.29, up +4.64%; longs 890 million, accounting for 50.75%; shorts 860 million, accounting for 49.25%. The gain was higher than the other two coins, but the long proportion was lower than BTC. My view. This contrast is worth noting: faster gains did not correspond to a higher long proportion. Positions for all three coins are close to balanced, and based on this ratio alone, it is difficult to judge which side will dominate next, nor can position size be directly taken as new capital flow. The original text tends to expect continued oscillation and warns of the risk of two-way spikes. I am more focused on whether subsequent price and positions can continue to coordinate: if SOL maintains relative strength, will the long advantage expand? If ETH continues to rebound, will the short proportion decline? These changes are more helpful than a single ratio in judging the divergence.Does receiving coins at an address mean a purchase has been made?
When I look at an on-chain address, I remind myself: receiving coins only indicates that coins have come in; whether they were bought or not requires further investigation.
It could be transfers between my own addresses, receiving allocations, rewards, or assets withdrawn from a protocol. Taking just one incoming transaction and labeling it as a “whale accumulating” skips too much information.
What I really want to know is what was given in exchange for these coins. Was there a corresponding swap? Did another asset flow out? Were there multiple transfers in the same transaction? If it’s just a one-way incoming transfer, I’ll note it as “tokens received” and won’t rush to estimate the purchase cost.
Even if I find a swap record, I still need to distinguish between this single address and the full position behind it. Whether someone hedged elsewhere usually can’t be answered by a single on-chain record.
I’m willing to treat it as an observation clue but won’t directly copy it as my own reason for opening a position.
When you see a screenshot of a “whale buying,” do you check the original transaction?The ETF buying stopped above the "cost line" of 81,500
Looking at the capital flow, this is the most despairing detail for the bulls.
Glassnode estimates that the average cost basis for holders of the US spot Bitcoin ETF is about $81,500. And in the 30 days ending October 26, the ETF saw a net outflow of $254.7 million. BlackRock's IBIT had an inflow of $962 million, but this was offset by $772.5 million outflow from Fidelity's FBTC and redemptions from other products.
Think about this structure.
The ETF money has a "cost line" around 81,500. When the price drops near 81,000, ETF holders are overall close to breakeven. At this position, new buying has no reason to rush in. And the $423.6 million inflow from October 26 to 28 was 93.9% concentrated in a single BlackRock IBIT fund, with Fidelity and other products barely following.
A breadth-lacking buying force cannot hold a panic liquidation driven by "rumors + macro disappointment." $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #StrategyQ3净利润创单季新高，数字资产收益贡献显著 This morning (October 30), A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showed completely opposite operational logic: A-shares opened sharply lower dragged down by the overnight plunge in U.S. tech stocks, then funds flowed into defensive and domestic demand sectors such as pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and shipping, driving the index to bottom out and rebound; Hong Kong stocks, on the other hand, strongly rebounded with a collective surge in large tech and consumer stocks, with technology and domestic demand becoming the dual main themes.
🇨🇳 A-shares: Bottoming out and rebounding, funds switching between pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and shipping
A-shares opened sharply lower in early trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly falling below 3600 points (lowest at 3595.26), and the ChiNext Index initially dropping over 3%. Subsequently, funds withdrew from high-level tech sectors and flowed into low-level defensive and domestic demand sectors, causing the index to fluctuate upward and the decline to narrow continuously. The Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component indexes both closed near their daily highs at midday. By noon, the Shanghai Composite was down 0.30% at 3640.54 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.58%, and the ChiNext down 1.18%; half-day turnover was about 1.01 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 21.5-23 billion yuan compared to the same period the previous day.
The pharmaceutical sector was the strongest offensive direction in the morning session, with CXO and innovative drugs showing the greatest elasticity. Aoyang Health hit a 3-day limit up, Bidu Pharma hit a 20% limit up, and Wanbang Pharma, Haoyuan Pharma, Ruizhiyi Pharma, and Nearshore Protein all rose more than 11%. The catalyst was the overnight U.S. biopharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly’s Q3 net profit growing 16% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, boosting global pharmaceutical sector sentiment, combined with individual stocks benefiting from Q3 earnings realization being heavily chased by funds (Guilin Sanjin hit a 2-day limit up, Lingrui Pharma hit limit up).
The consumer sector (baijiu, food) was the core carrier of defensive clustering. The baijiu sector rose 2.13% by midday, with Huangtai Liquor, Gujing Gongjiu, and Yingjia Gongjiu hitting limit ups, Luzhou Laojiao up 8.35%, and Jinshiyuan up 5.92%. The driving force came from stock battles amid Q3 earnings divergence—Yingjia Gongjiu’s Q3 revenue grew 4.25% year-on-year, net profit grew 8.58%, becoming a key target for fund accumulation. In the food sector, Qingdao Food hit a 5-day limit up, with Black Sesame and Quanyangquan hitting limit ups.
Shipping and ports strengthened against the trend, with Jinjiang Shipping hitting limit up, and the sector rising 3.01% by midday, forming cross-market resonance with Hong Kong port and transportation stocks.
The PCB sector showed localized anomalies, with Jin'an Guoji, Aohong Electronics, and Hongchang Electronics hitting limit ups, and Jin'an Guoji receiving net main force purchases exceeding 600-700 million yuan. Against the backdrop of a sharp overnight drop in U.S. computing hardware stocks, PCB, as a tech rebound pioneer, was the first to attract funds.
The bleeding sectors concentrated in internet finance (Compass down over 10%), short drama concepts (Wen Investment Holdings hit limit down), and electronics, computer, and communication sectors, with the electronics sector seeing a net outflow exceeding 3.1 billion yuan by midday.
🇭🇰 Hong Kong stocks: Dual engines of tech and consumer, semiconductor chain weakens
Hong Kong’s three major indexes collectively rebounded, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.64% by midday, the Hang Seng Tech Index up 1.43%, and the China Enterprises Index up 1.63%. Unlike A-shares’ "defensive bottoming and rebound," Hong Kong’s rise was driven jointly by large tech and domestic consumer stocks, reflecting more positive sentiment.
The collective rebound of large tech stocks was the core driving force. Meituan and Xiaomi Group rose over 4%, Alibaba, JD.com, Tencent Holdings, NetEase, and Kuaishou all rose more than 2%. The tech stocks’ rebound sharply contrasted with the weakness of A-shares’ tech sector, reflecting a regional divergence in risk appetite for the same asset class between the two markets.
Domestic consumer demand was fully active, resonating cross-market with A-shares’ consumer logic. Dairy stocks led gains, with Mengniu Dairy up over 7%; mainland education stock New Oriental rose over 6.5%; home appliances, catering, and alcoholic beverages all trended upward.
Shipping, ports, and financial heavyweights strengthened simultaneously. COSCO Shipping Holdings rose over 7%, Orient Overseas International rose over 3%; oil stocks, Chinese securities firms, and insurance stocks all rose, with HSBC Holdings up 0.4% and Standard Chartered following suit.
The weakening sectors concentrated in the semiconductor chain. Optical communication concept stocks, storage semiconductor stocks, and PCB concept stocks all declined collectively, forming an inverse trend to the localized anomalies in A-shares’ PCB sector, indicating a clear phase mismatch in pricing of tech hardware between the two markets.
💎 Summary
A-shares are "making high-low switches in passive defense," while Hong Kong stocks are "actively attacking to restore sentiment." The overnight sell-off in U.S. tech stocks was amplified in A-shares as a low open, but funds quickly found support in low-level sectors such as pharmaceuticals, baijiu, and shipping, leading the index to bottom out and rebound, though more stocks declined than rose (over 2,800 stocks down). Hong Kong stocks directly benefited from the collective rebound of large tech stocks and broad consumer activity, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 1.6%, showing clearly stronger sentiment. The only consensus between the two markets is that domestic consumer demand (baijiu/food/dairy/catering) has gained cross-market fund resonance, while tech hardware (PCB/semiconductors/optical communication) shows opposite directional fund pricing between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. Whether this divergence narrows in the afternoon will depend on further guidance from tonight’s U.S. tech earnings reports.Conclusion first: $BNB's highest in the past 24 hours was 759, lowest 677, currently 716. The $6.3 billion Binance incident is preliminarily concluded not to be a private key leak, but an engineer's hacked laptop that allowed the attacker to gain container permissions and submit unauthorized withdrawals (Blockaid also judged it as signature misuse).
But what concerns you is "being stuck," not "being stolen":
① Binance has suspended all deposits and withdrawals, promises full compensation, and has frozen about $3 billion; Arbitrum's security committee has additionally frozen $30.5 million.
② Aave has also suspended new deposits and loans on V3/V4, contracts are fine, withdrawals and repayments proceed as usual.
③ If the money is on the exchange, you are a creditor; if the money is in your own wallet, you are the owner. This is the real dividing line.
Market situation: At 04:00 Beijing time, on the 1H chart, $BNB perpetual futures dropped from 744.63 to 677.47 (-9%), with a trading volume of $86.5 million, 126 times that of the previous hour; 24-hour perpetual futures volume was $307 million, 9 times the spot volume—leverage moved first. Funding rate has reached -0.0634%/8h, shorts are paying longs. The Fear and Greed Index is 30, the lowest since August 14.
Is your position on the exchange or in your own wallet? Being frozen for 3 hours and being frozen for 3 months are two different things. $BNB#英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌 $INTC
The most easily misinterpreted part of this earnings report is attributing the plunge solely to the "Q4 guidance below expectations" surface fact.
A more accurate interpretation is: Q3 proved that Intel's server business has genuine structural demand, and the foundry's technological progress is real, but the time needed for these two positive signals to translate into financial profit has been simultaneously extended by the PC cycle downturn, supply incidents, and a peak in capital expenditures. The detail that “the ETF intends to directly hold ZEC” made me stop halfway through reading and go back to check the spokesperson’s identity. Having just entered the circle for a year, I originally took this as a dispute over privacy philosophy, but seeing that the applicant is a company under the Winklevoss brothers, I felt I needed to think a bit deeper 🤔
This time Cameron advocates that Zcash does not need to redo governance, putting privacy back at the core, and calls for the termination of ZCG; the related ETF has currently submitted a registration application. My own judgment is: when one party with potential holdings talks about governance, their views can be heard, but they cannot be directly taken as the common answer for all users.
My understanding is that holding $ZEC and using privacy features do not necessarily fully overlap in demands. If holders prefer to reduce governance disputes, while users care more about the availability of privacy features, then “less fuss” and “making the product better” are not necessarily the same thing. This is my speculation, not saying that a conflict has already occurred between the two sides.
I haven’t figured out yet how this indirect holding method via ETF will affect actual governance participation, and the materials do not clarify whether it participates in voting. For me, what needs to be observed next is whether the needs of different users can be heard, rather than who shouts the “privacy mission” more forcefully."Privacy is the core goal," I agree with this statement, but I won't use it as a reason to leverage. I don't play with high leverage; I prefer to step back from the hype and see if it actually changes the long-term value. What I care about most this time is whether clearly stating the mission can prove that the governance plan is also the right choice.
My judgment is: the mission statement alone is not yet a long-term positive; for now, it is more a voice in the governance debate. In the materials, Cameron also advocates no need to redo governance or terminate ZCG, and his asset management firm has previously submitted a Zcash ETF registration application. These moves carry weight but cannot serve as a report card for the actual progress of privacy products.
Regarding $ZEC, I prefer to separate the "goal" from the "method." Privacy is the goal; holding tokens to vote is the method. Agreeing with the former does not mean the latter is inherently effective. In my estimation, if governance adjustments can reduce conflicts and allow development to focus more, then it might become a long-term signal; if it's just a change of people continuing the disputes, ordinary users will not get a better privacy experience as a result.
As for me, I am a slow mover holding steady, not rushing to take sides. Leverage, however, won't wait patiently for debates to settle. My reminder to myself is: don't get carried away by statements; pay more attention to whether privacy capabilities and user experience actually improve.Last night's hacker incident caused a sharp drop, and many people think "the bad news is fully priced in" or "Binance has already bailed out," preparing to use large funds to bottom-fish. Don't be impulsive! Here are some fatal realities to consider:
1. The bailout is only "life-saving," selling pressure is far from gone
Although Binance and Tether quickly froze some funds and promised compensation, this only guarantees "deposits won't be wiped out." The tokens in the hacker's hands that haven't been frozen remain a sword hanging overhead, and they could dump at any liquidity window. The real market selling pressure has not disappeared.
2. Stolen coins become a "financial weapon," long positions become fuel
It's hard for hackers to cash out, but a more sophisticated tactic is to coordinate with massive short positions: selling stolen ETH to create panic and precisely harvesting high-leverage long positions. Your 20x long position is their ATM and liquidation fuel. On a macro level, continuous ETF outflows add to the gloom.
3. Liquidity dries up, beware of "spikes up and down"
Current liquidity is extremely poor; market makers and hackers can easily create fake rebounds to lure longs, then follow with a big bearish candle to dump. ETH and BNB have dropped over 4%, with intense long-short battles. Heavy contract positions now are like gambling on big or small; be sure to control your hands and keep enough cash to wait for the right side. $BTC $ETH $ZEC