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ETH Technical Analysis Early Morning November 5 Daily Level The daily chart has entered a rebound correction phase, currently testing the 2430 to 2480 resistance zone. Only a solid close above this area can further improve the mid-term structure. 4-Hour Level ETH rebounded strongly from around 2172, breaking through the 2300 to 2350 resistance zone. Short-term bullish momentum is strengthening, but the overall downtrend structure has not been completely reversed yet. The sustainability of the breakout needs to be observed. 1-Hour Level Price quickly surged to around 2435, with short-term bulls dominating. However, after consecutive sharp rises, a pullback is expected. Focus on whether the breakout area can hold. Key Levels Upper Resistance: 2450 to 2485, strong resistance at 2520 to 2560 Lower Support: 2390 to 2360, strong support at 2330 to 2300 Bull-Bear Divide: 2390 Comprehensive Judgment ETH is turning from weak to strong in the short term, but mid-term reversal still requires confirmation. Holding above 2390 could lead to further tests of 2485 and 2520. Breaking below 2390 warns of a pullback to 2360 to 2330; if 2300 fails to hold, the breakout's validity weakens. Currently, it is not advisable to chase the rally blindly. Priority should be given to waiting for the 4-hour close and pullback confirmation, with strict position and risk control. #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% #索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？ BTC weekly chart has already moved below MA60, but this bullish candle is very likely to break through MA60. From the perspective of the entire weekly chart, whenever it breaks through this moving average and holds steady, it almost always signals a new major rally. However, the bear market seems not to have fallen enough yet, as there is still a lot of liquidity around 57000 below. Sigh, the future is really hard to predict I just took No on $SONY . 359.46 shares. Everyone is paying 76c for Yes. I'm paying 25c for No. Why? PS5 hardware -36%, Kumamoto earthquake impact still not in forecast, and Zacks ESP is 0.00% - no beat predicted. Yen helped last Q. Now it's reversing. If I'm wrong, I lose 89.86 XP. If I'm right, value is there. You fading the 75% crowd with me or taking Yes? $SONY #SonyQ2GamingAndMusic $BTC just broke through 78,000, but we can't directly assume this rally will continue. Most likely, it's a short squeeze rebound first, not a solid new trend. A large part of this move is driven by short positions being blown out, pushed up by contract forces. For the market to stabilize, it can't rely solely on liquidations; spot funds need to hold it up, especially spot ETFs. There needs to be steady inflow over several days, not just a single-day surge followed by outflows. The biggest hurdle is macro conditions: U.S. Treasury yields and rate cut expectations can't suddenly reverse. If upcoming data remains strong and the Fed stays hawkish, high-risk assets will struggle to have an independent rally. Also, there are many trapped positions on the upside; during rebounds, many whales will sell in batches, making it easy to be pressured at resistance levels. Simply put, watch a few signals: can it close above 78,000 continuously with volume holding steady, continuous ETF fund inflows, and no sudden rebound in U.S. Treasuries. If it's just low volume with spikes, then it's a short-term sentiment rally, and a pullback to 75,000–76,000 could happen anytime. Don't chase high positions heavily now; it's safer to wait for confirmation before acting. $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓 🔥Don't assume the bear market is over just because BTC had a big bullish candle! What really matters is whether it has completed the structural shift from a low-level consolidation to an uptrend. I prefer to see today's rebound as an opportunity to observe a potential trend reversal.📊 Previously, BTC was in an overall downtrend structure. After October 29, the price mainly oscillated between $76,200 and $78,000. Today, disturbed by election news, the price quickly dipped near $76,200, even dropping intraday to $75,618, then rapidly recovered, showing clear support at the low level. On the news front, the Democratic Party took control of both houses of Congress, and Trump expressed willingness to cooperate with the Democrats.⚡ My first step is to probe in the possible reversal direction by positioning in ARB, UNI, NEAR, and AAVE. The second step is to see if $79,160 can break out with volume; if it can't, then treat it as just a rebound and avoid blindly adding positions. The third step is crucial: if it breaks and holds above $79,160 with volume, then after a pullback confirms support, consider rolling positions into altcoins.🧭 If it falls back below $76,200, be alert for reversal failure and reassess positions and stop losses. The trading plan is not to predict the market will definitely rise, but to prepare responses for different scenarios in advance. Will you wait for confirmation at $79,160, or set up positions early? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #AAOI高速光模块放量，Q3财报能否超预期？ Conversely, the biggest downside risk is the simultaneous realization of the 100G decline and 800G capacity constraints: revenue barely hits the lower half of guidance, while expansion costs remain rigid, further squeezing profits. The market is particularly sensitive to "delays"—after the last earnings report, the stock price once retreated by 46%, indicating that the pricing leaves little room for execution risk tolerance.SanDisk has dropped nearly half, but the real bad news may not have arrived yet. What’s collapsed isn’t the profit, but the "price hike" engine. SNDK fell from a 52-week high of $2,354 to the $1,030–1,126 range, a drop of over 52%, and fell about 23% again in the past week. Many are still focused on the "data center long-term contract locked volume" story, but when you break down the latest financial report and industry chain signals, the structure looks much worse than the stock price. 1. The pricing engine went out in one quarter. Last quarter revenue grew 51%, with management saying about two-thirds came from price increases; this quarter growth was 23%, and the CFO reduced the contribution from price hikes to about 40%. The growth contribution dropped from about 34 points to about 9 points, shrinking by three-quarters in one quarter. More importantly, the CFO’s guidance for the future only mentions "modest price increases"—the price hike story can no longer be sustained. 2. The consumer side is "voting with their feet." Consumer business revenue fell to $397 million in a single quarter, down 29% quarter-over-quarter and even more year-over-year; the previous quarter’s consumer side had already plunged 32% quarter-over-quarter. Buyers are directly pulling back in the face of higher prices, the same logic described in Intel’s lowered guidance about "memory costs squeezing PC demand." No matter how strong the data center is, it can’t make up for the consumer side’s bleeding. 3. The upstream of the flash memory price chain is the first to buckle. SanDisk’s Japanese wafer partner Kioxia issued a warning: AI-driven flash memory price hikes are fading. Kioxia’s operating profit guidance for the December quarter is flat compared to September, far below analyst expectations; its NAND price increase dropped sharply from 70% last quarter to just over 20%. After Kioxia’s guidance release, SanDisk plunged 13.47% in a single day, wiping out about $39 billion in market value over two trading days. The spot market confirms this: NAND wafer spot trade prices are falling rapidly, channel and distributor inventories are high, and some traders have started selling at a loss. 4. Wall Street is revising down, not up. Fox Advisors downgraded SanDisk from "overweight" to "neutral" on November 2; Wells Fargo simultaneously lowered its target price; RBC cut its target from $1,600 to $1,400, maintaining "in line with the sector." Goldman Sachs, while maintaining a buy rating, also lowered its 12-month target from $2,200 to $2,000, citing "valuation multiple contraction." When the bulls start cutting target prices, short-term pricing power is in the hands of the sellers. 5. Insiders are selling, and it’s not just one person. Chief Legal Officer Bernard Shek sold about $695,000 worth of stock this week as planned; earlier, directors cashed out over $50 million in one week, coinciding with the stock trading at a 63% premium to fair value and Morningstar giving a "one-star severe overvaluation." The original parent company Western Digital also made large discounted sales at cycle highs. Insiders are not traders; their selling timing is usually close to cycle tops. 6. The "oversupply" in 2027 is not a forecast, it’s a schedule. TrendForce has already judged that NAND supply-demand ratio will turn positive in the second half of 2027, with prices entering a correction pressure zone. Weak consumer demand and process transitions increasing bit output are the two engines driving oversupply. SanDisk’s long-term contracts do cover about half of fiscal 2027 and about two-thirds of fiscal 2028 capacity, but contracts lock volume, not price. When spot prices start to fall, the "protection" of long contracts becomes a risk of "locking in high-priced inventory," not a moat for profit. 7. After the election, AI regulation adds another layer of uncertainty. The midterm elections saw the Democrats win control of both houses beyond expectations, and the market is starting to worry that Congress will tighten regulation on AI infrastructure and data center expansion—which is precisely the demand engine for SanDisk’s data center narrative. The result is the market is rising, storage chip stocks are falling, and funds are actively rotating out of this sector; it’s not just a SanDisk issue. What I’m watching now isn’t how many billions of long-term data center contracts are signed, but two leading signals: when NAND spot prices stop falling, and when consumer revenue stops declining quarter-over-quarter. Before these two signals appear, any rebound I first ask: is it short covering, or is there really incremental buying? Which do you think is the core reason for SanDisk’s continued decline? A. The price hike engine went out, the pricing story is over B. The consumer side is collapsing, data center can’t make up C. Insiders cashing out at highs, cycle top signal D. 2027 oversupply expectation, market pricing in advance #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% #AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 Dash's V24 hard fork has a set schedule: mainnet signaling starts from 00:00 UTC on November 9, with activation earliest around November 28. Only 5 days remain until signaling begins, but as of November 4, the latest on GitHub is still v24.0.0-rc.6 (released November 2), and the official version has not been released yet; the official statement says the RC is only for testnet. Who needs to act: the release notes specify this is a mandatory upgrade. Masternodes must upgrade before November 9; other nodes (exchanges, wallets, explorers) must upgrade before activation, or they will "follow an invalid chain." The masternode protocol version mentions 70242; during DKG, old versions will be judged as poorly connected and may receive PoSe penalties. Activation mechanism: masternodes first sign with LLMQ_400_85 (85% of members must run V24), then miners vote in windows of 4032 blocks (about 7 days), with the threshold gradually dropping from 80% to 60%. Each missed window delays activation by about a week. Upgrade pitfalls: nodes with addressindex/spentindex/timestampindex enabled need to migrate indexes on first startup, taking about 20 to 40 minutes or longer; -txindex=0 must be combined with -disablegovernance, or it won't start; macOS requires version 14 or above. What to watch next: official v24 release#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ Conclusion: The probability that revenue will fall within the guidance range and slightly exceed consensus (about $256 million) is high, but this earnings report has already given a clear negative answer. The Neutron maiden flight, originally scheduled for October 14, has been officially postponed to 2027, and not early in the year. The manufacturing defect in the carbon composite tank dome has been resolved, but the cryogenic and hydrostatic pressure tests will not be completed until the end of Q1 2027, after which the launch date will be reset. This means there will be no Neutron revenue in 2026, and the launch window in the first half of 2027 is also precarious. In the earnings call, the best the management could say was that "testing is progressing according to the new schedule," but when asked "how is the progress," the answer essentially was "still waiting." There is no big surprise on the revenue side. Q3 consensus is **$256.5 million**, company guidance is $250–$265 million, midpoint $257.5 million, slightly above consensus. The launch pace of Electron and HASTE remains steady, combined with contract conversions from Space Systems, landing in the upper half of guidance is the baseline scenario. The real game is not in the numbers, but whether the market is still willing to pay a premium for "Neutron in 2027." Backlog is $2.36 billion, with over 100 launch missions, the story is intact, but the time cost is compounding exponentially. Revenue beats cannot save the valuation narrative.#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $RVN $TRUMP Let's analyze this rationally. The midterm elections resulted in a loss for Huang Mao, but that doesn't mean stepping down. If there is an opportunity for a quick harvest in the final term, it might only be in cryptocurrency. If I were Huang Mao, I would infinitely amplify the value of the chips in hand, then find a chance to cash out and run. There will be a strong rebound wave, followed by a real waterfall. If it were you, what would you do? Let's discuss together.What is truly falling is not the price, but the "bullets". BTC is struggling around 77,000, and many are still waiting for a rebound. But the funding data tells me: the issue this round is not "how much it has dropped," but "how much money is still willing to stay and buy." 1. Dual liquidity drain The total supply of stablecoins shrank by about $5.7 billion in a week, hitting a near one-year low; spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows exceeding $1 billion over two trading days. Both "bullets" in the market and the "marginal buy orders" from traditional funds are decreasing simultaneously. It's not just that people are selling coins, but the money willing to buy the dip itself is diminishing. 2. Long leverage not fully cleared The 24-hour global liquidations once exceeded $800 million, with longs accounting for over 93%, and 213,000 people liquidated. More troublingly, BTC contract open interest rose from 7.46 billion to 7.65 billion amid the decline—prices falling while longs increase. Under this structure, every rebound looks more like an opportunity for trapped longs to "break even and exit" rather than new money entering. 3. The Fed hasn’t provided "water" Arthur Hayes’ framework is straightforward: what can truly push Bitcoin higher is the Fed or banking system expanding their balance sheets. So far, this hasn’t happened; interest rates remain in a relatively high range, and new dollars prefer to sit in treasuries and money market funds. Without balance sheet expansion, the ceiling for rebounds is suppressed. 4. Trust fractures remain The aftermath of Binance’s $6.3 billion hack is still unfolding, with crypto concept stocks like Coinbase, Circle, and Strategy dropping 7% to 10% on the same day. When industry leaders lose this scale, short-term capital outflows and panic selling won’t disappear just because of the words "full compensation." 5. Technical outlook is not optimistic $77,700 is the cost basis for entrants in the past 1 to 3 months; BTC has fallen below this, meaning this group of buyers is overall at a floating loss. According to CryptoQuant: once the cost basis is broken, underwater holders will see breaking even as an exit opportunity, turning support at that level into resistance. The short-term holder cost below is $75,832, and further down $68,400 corresponds to about a 12% loss zone. The Fear & Greed Index is 34, still in the fear zone. If 77,000 doesn’t hold, what’s below is not "support" but the "next liquidation zone." What I’m watching now is not when the candlestick closes green, but two signals: when the total stablecoin supply stops falling, and when ETFs turn to continuous net inflows. Before that, for any rebound, I first ask: is incremental capital coming in, or is it short covering and oversold bounce? Question 1: What do you think is the core reason for this round of decline? A. Liquidity exhaustion, no bullets left in the market B. Long leverage not fully cleared, still sweeping down C. Trust crisis after Binance hack, institutions withdrawing D. Fed not expanding balance sheet, macro ceiling suppressing Question 2: Do you think 77,000 will hold this week? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% The current market situation is basically predictable, with the core being the announcement of the midterm election results. Although the Republican Party lost, the political uncertainty has settled. From a macro perspective, eliminating uncertainty boosts sentiment for risk assets, marking an emotional surge after the 'boot has dropped.' Geopolitically, after the midterm election defeat, Trump has gone 'silent,' and both Trump and Vance believe the loss was due to the war, so the market assumes that US-Iran relations might ease because of the midterm election failure, leading to a drop in Brent prices. #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 At the meso level, AMD's strong earnings report, with AI data center business as the biggest highlight, offset last week's decline in AI confidence caused by Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, stimulating a rise in US stocks. At the micro level, US stocks have digested valuations after consecutive declines last week, and #Bitcoin also saw a valuation drop due to last week's theft incident. There is short-term technical rebound demand plus an emotional surge from the 'boot dropping' in macro sentiment, stimulating indices and prices to start rebounding. But has the crisis really been resolved? Politically, the Democratic and Republican parties will form a competitive pattern over the next two years, with subsequent fiscal, interest rate, and AI and crypto regulations to be implemented, so short-term uncertainty remains high. Geopolitically, Trump admits the election loss was due to the war, but this does not mean Trump will not attack Iran. Even Iran's Supreme Leader has stated that after the midterm elections, they will still prepare for effective defense and retaliation. The Democratic-controlled Congress can restrain Trump, but Trump can still act in foreign affairs and military matters.#ASTS is advancing mobile direct satellite service, with commercialization progress yet to be disclosed $ASTS has reached a critical window before the earnings report again. Q3 revenue was $14.73 million, below the expected $22 million, and a loss per share of $0.45 also exceeded expectations. But what the market really cares about is not this quarter's numbers—the deployment pace of BlueBird, carrier cooperation implementation, commercialization revenue, and cash burn are the hard metrics that determine whether the logic can be fulfilled. My view: The short-term earnings of $ASTS are almost structurally "ugly" because it is in a cash-burning phase transitioning from validation to commercialization, so using current profits to evaluate it is a mismatch. The two key points to watch are: first, whether the cash runway is thick enough—cash and liquidity at the end of Q3 were $3.2 billion, temporarily sufficient to support a constellation of 100+ satellites; second, whether orders can be converted into revenue—over $1 billion in contract commitments have been secured, and ties with carriers like Verizon and stc are deepening. BlueBird 6 has already launched, with a 2026 target of 45–60 satellites in orbit. Every additional satellite in orbit brings "mobile direct" one step closer from a story to subscription revenue. The short-term stock price will fluctuate due to misses, but the long-term winning factors lie in launch pace and carrier activation progress, not in this quarter's EPS.I read that investigation report from #Binance To be honest, the core information is just one thing: an engineer's laptop was hacked, and then 6.3 billion was lost. It wasn't a private key leak, nor a wallet breach, but a matter of one person and one computer~ My first reaction was: this is even more chilling than a private key leak. A private key leak means your custody has issues, A laptop being hacked means the attack surface is much larger than you imagine. Just one DevOps engineer's computer could access the service container to submit withdrawals. This chain sounds simple, but thinking about it carefully is quite scary... However, the Binance team reacted quickly, freezing 3 billion, The rest is covered by SAFU, so users' funds were not lost. This is done very well because users were not made to pay~ My view is more cautious. In the short term, the sentiment for $BNB and $BTC definitely needs to be digested, After all, "the largest exchange was hacked," the market needs some time to digest this, which is normal, but I don't think this is a reason for a trend reversal. 6.3 billion sounds huge, but Binance can cover it. What really needs attention is the complete technical post-mortem report later, To see whether it was a single point of negligence or a systemic issue. If it's the former, the pit dug out could actually be an opportunity; But if it's the latter, then it needs to be reconsidered... Anyway, I haven't changed my position, I'll watch for two days before deciding 😊$BTC Bull coming? What to do tonight? This big bullish candle surge is not a new main force building a position at all; it’s a textbook case of bad news landing + expectation gap repair + on-chain liquidation resonance, which should also serve as a good lesson for the market. The market had already priced in the pessimistic expectation of the Democrats winning the midterm elections with stricter regulations well in advance. Most people’s sentiment was cautious or pessimistic, even at one point thinking the market should just go down. With the election results settled and uncertainty completely eliminated, combined with the triggering of short-side liquidations, a smooth repair rebound was directly launched. It might be the bull coming, or it might be a bull illusion. I already posted this afternoon that the election is an emotional catalyst, not a trend reversal signal. One bullish candle can change the market and gamblers’ sentiment, but it cannot change the existing capital structure. Personally, I still think this is a news-driven repair rally, and I haven’t seen sustained spot inflows. The core observation point going forward is simple: Whether it can hold the rebound range and whether spot funds continue to take over. After sentiment repair, the real strength or weakness will be revealed. So whether you are bullish or bearish, manage your positions and leverage well, don’t be influenced by emotions; the market looks at sustainability, not explosiveness. Wish everyone not to fall before dawn, see you tomorrow morning #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 This time might be different. What's really falling isn't the price, but the "bullets". BTC is struggling around 77,000, and many are still waiting for a rebound. But after reviewing the funding data from the past two days, one feeling grows stronger: the issue this round might not be "how much it has dropped," but "how much money is still willing to stay and buy." First, let's talk about the initial signal: liquidity is being drained on two fronts. The total stablecoin supply shrank by about $5.7 billion in a week, hitting a near one-year low; meanwhile, spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows exceeding $1 billion over two trading days, and ETH ETFs have had consecutive days of redemptions. Stablecoins represent the "available bullets" inside the market, and ETFs represent the "marginal buying power" of traditional funds. Both lines moving downward simultaneously means the dollars willing to stay in the crypto market waiting to bottom-fish are decreasing, not just that people are selling coins. Next, look at the liquidation structure. In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network once exceeded $800 million, with longs accounting for over 93%, 213,000 people liquidated, and BTC itself liquidated $235 million. More troubling is that BTC contract positions increased from $7.46 billion to $7.65 billion during the decline—prices falling while longs are adding positions. This structure makes it hard to have a decent rebound because every bounce gives trapped longs a chance to "break even and exit," rather than signaling new money entering. The third, and what I think is the most underestimated point: the Federal Reserve hasn't provided "water." Arthur Hayes posted a USD liquidity curve these days, but his caption was bearish on Bitcoin. His framework is straightforward: the real trigger is the Fed or the US banking system expanding their balance sheets, swapping risk-free assets for cash and reserves, forcing funds to seek high-beta assets. As of November 2026, this hasn't happened; interest rates remain in a high range, and new dollars prefer to sit in Treasuries and money market funds. Without balance sheet expansion, Bitcoin's required rate of return stays high, capping the rebound ceiling. There's also a layer of trust fracture. The aftermath of Binance's $6.3 billion hack is still unfolding, with crypto concept stocks like Coinbase, Circle, and Strategy dropping 7% to 10% on the same day. Losing assets of this magnitude from an industry leader hits trust in centralized exchanges hard; short-term capital outflows and panic selling pressure won't vanish immediately just because of the words "full compensation." Finally, looking at the technicals. $77,700 is the cost basis for investors who entered 1 to 3 months ago; BTC has already fallen below this level, meaning this recent batch of buyers is overall underwater. According to CryptoQuant: in a bull market, the cost basis acts as support, but once broken, underwater holders see breaking even as an exit opportunity, turning that level into resistance. The short-term holders' cost basis below is $75,832, and further down $68,400 corresponds to about a 12% total loss zone. The Fear & Greed Index is 34, still in the fear zone. If 77,000 doesn't hold, the next level below isn't "support," but "the next liquidation zone." So what I'm really watching now isn't when the candlestick turns green, but two things: when the total stablecoin supply stops falling, and when ETFs turn to continuous net inflows. Before these two signals appear, I assume any rebound is first to ask: is new money coming in, or is it short covering and oversold bounce? Question 1: What do you think is the core reason for this round of decline? A. Liquidity exhaustion, no bullets left in the market B. Long leverage hasn't been fully cleared, more to sweep down C. Trust crisis after Binance hack, institutions withdrawing D. Fed not expanding balance sheet, macro ceiling pressure Question 2: Do you think 77,000 will hold this week? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 BTC has rebounded to around 80,000, but don’t rush to call it a reversal yet. The real question is: who is buying this rally? The big players have reached the resistance zone of $78,500–79,500, but the fuel for the rebound seems insufficient. On November 4, ETFs saw a net outflow of about $95 million, while futures open interest increased by 12.1%, reaching 694,728 BTC. During the sell-off, the funding rate once surged to an annualized 17%. What does this indicate? Leveraged funds are betting on the rebound, but spot funds have not clearly followed. Bitfinex also believes that currently, it is more of a passive acceptance rather than active buying. Additionally, with the nonfarm payrolls report coming this Friday, the market is still digesting the December rate hike expectations. ETH and ZEC are also unlikely to be completely unaffected. I’m not afraid of volatility, but I fear mistaking a leveraged rebound for the start of a bull market. Holding above 80,000 still depends on spot, a breakout depends on volume, and a pullback depends on absorption. Don’t rush to chase! This is a personal market record sharing and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 BTC surges sharply, is it a bull comeback or just a temporary rise? In one sentence: short covering, not new money entering! Price pulled up to 80k, but ETFs have continuous net outflows, stablecoin supply shrinks to nearly a one-year low, and the fear and greed index is still in the "fear" zone. The price is rising, but funds are running away. Whales are accumulating, institutions are withdrawing, leverage has been cleared but funding rates are still positive — the bulls holding on hard haven't admitted defeat, the bottom pattern is unhealthy. 76,000 is the falsification test line, not the starting line. Holding and standing above 82k is needed to talk about opening the 87k space; if it doesn't hold, 73k–74k is the next level. Next, only focus on three signals: ① funding rate turns negative; ② ETFs switch from continuous outflows to continuous inflows; ③ stablecoin supply stops falling and rebounds. Without these three, this round is just an emotional pulse from election night. DYOR, NFA. $BTC $ETH $ZEC The market plunged sharply in the early session, with the K-line continuously dropping. The majority quickly voiced bearish sentiment, and many jumped in on the red candles, firmly convinced that a bear market was starting. The wind begins at the tip of the green apple, and the waves form amid the slight ripples. In the afternoon, the market tested the key support level but did not break it, confirming a bullish structure. Holding this support means the bulls dominate. Decisively enter and position long. All three BTC target levels were hit, ETH followed suit, and the three-tiered stop-profit bullish trend was fully capitalized on. Trading is never about gambling on luck but about doing the right thing at critical points. Support stabilization is the signal; as long as the structure holds, holding positions is justified. The market always rewards those who are prepared and favors those who can maintain their rhythm. $BTC $ETH #美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期 Anthropic's top short seller is still increasing their bearish position! $ANTHROPIC This whale continued to add a $7.62 million short position this afternoon, bringing the total short position to $36.18 million, making it the largest single short address in this sector. Mainly betting on ANTH contracts before listing, with a small position also shorting ANTH, all opened with 6x isolated leverage, currently floating at a loss of $1.46 million. Here's the interesting point: the more it falls, the more they short; the more they lose, the more they add—opposite to what we discussed before with Brother Maji's counter strategy. But remember, a whale adding to shorts doesn't mean an immediate drop. Such high-leverage positions can easily trigger cascading liquidations if the market reverses and rallies, potentially causing a short squeeze at any time in the short term. On-chain whale positions should only be treated as observation signals; never blindly follow their trades. #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 AAPL 收出 0.37% 的小幅回落，刚好踩在财报两套叙事拉扯的交界地带。 已经落地的业绩，是这条路径走完之后留下的印记，就像 AMD 这一轮数据中心收入接近翻倍，里面包含营收、EPS 这类可以核验的数字，只用来回答过去这段周期，这家公司实际交出了怎样的答卷。这部分结果尘埃落定，不会再有改动的空间。 指引是向前铺开的前路轮廓，由管理层对后续周期给出预估，苹果这一轮的看点就落在这里，下季度毛利率的预期被压到偏低位置。它可以给到明确的区间，也只给出大致走向，这条路最后能不能走到预想的位置，充满变数。 真正拉扯盘面的，是预期和结果之间的缝隙。这里一共只有四种组合，结果超预期但前路看淡，或是过往不及预期但指引给足想象，两种信号撞在一起，价格就会来回摇摆。就算最终出来的数字刚好贴合所有人预想，也不代表行情会就此平息，如果市场之前已经把很高的期待打进去，没有额外惊喜就撑不起继续向上的力量。 打开你手里的持仓清单，核对绑定财报叙事的单子，把止盈和止损的位置重新校准一遍。一旦后续财报指引大幅跳出此前市场的共识，这一套观察逻辑就不再生效。 BTC ETHI have a feeling: $BTC might disappoint the bears again. Binance just went through turmoil, the US midterm elections caused disruption, spot ETF funds keep flowing out, and tech stocks are plunging. Negative news keeps hitting one after another, and BTC keeps getting beaten around 76,000, the market is indeed tough. But from another perspective: after all these negatives pass, what reason does the market have to keep crashing? Exhausting the negatives doesn’t mean an immediate surge, and 70,000 isn’t a guaranteed bottom. But the most interesting thing about BTC is that every few years someone declares it’s done, yet it lives longer than anyone. I currently hold 1.7307 $BTC, still some way from my first 3 $BTC target. I keep dollar-cost averaging at 3 AM every day: if it really rises, my account is happy; if it keeps falling, I make money on the sidelines and pick up chips. HODLers never lack patience. Bold question: after this round of panic, will BTC make an unexpected reversal? Next stop, 70,000 first or 90,000 first? #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% #AMD数据中心收入近翻倍，营收及指引均超预期 BTC spot ETF capital outflow combined with a slowdown in corporate treasury accumulation, risk appetite has clearly receded, SPCX is hard to remain unaffected, I tend to expect continued short-term pressure and weak rebounds. The price has fallen from the 142.81 level to 136.48, down 3.6% in 24 hours, shrinking 16.43% from the high in 4 hours, showing a clear downtrend structure; the buy-sell ratio in the top 10 order book levels is only 0.78, with selling pressure dominant, the funding rate of 0.0073% indicates longs are still paying to hold positions, and 438,000 coin-margined positions show no obvious liquidation, the risk of short squeeze has not been fully released. Strategically, a light short position can be tried on a rebound to 138.65, with a stop loss at 141.35 and a target of 130.85; if it pulls back to 129.65 and stabilizes, a short-term long can be taken, with a stop loss at 127.95 and a target of 134.45, single position size not exceeding 20%, exit immediately if broken. ——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.—— $SPCX#BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓 #BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓 $SPCX #CircleQ3 revenue exceeds expectations, USDC on-chain transaction volume grows 49% $USDC $BTC $ETH Circle announced its Q3 2026 financial report: total revenue and reserve income reached $865 million, a 17% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations; USDC on-chain transaction volume reached $13.9 trillion, a significant 49% year-over-year increase. Breaking it down, growth is not "uniform": 1) USDC average circulation was $73.3 billion, only an 8% year-over-year increase and slightly down quarter-over-quarter; ending market share about 27%. Transactions are very active, but the growth rate of idle funds is slowing. 2) Reserve income was $658 million, down 8% year-over-year, mainly due to a decline in reserve yield by about 61 basis points to 3.5%. 3) Other income surged to $207 million, of which about $182 million came from the ARC token presale—one-time income supported many highlights. Implications for the crypto market: demand for stablecoin payments and transfers continues to expand, but reserve income is under pressure in a declining interest rate environment, making Circle more reliant on payment networks and monetization of new businesses. Currently, BTC is about $80,200, ETH about $2,421; if USDC circulation remains flat, the narrative of stablecoins as an "on-chain dollar reservoir" expansion will be discounted; if on-chain volume continues to grow significantly and converts into payment fees, it will benefit crypto infrastructure valuations. What do you think of this financial report? Join the discussion in the comments: A bullish on USDC usage converting into revenue, or B worried about reserve income and one-time token issuance income being unsustainable? $BCH Looking at BCH's trend, I immediately splashed a big gulp of ice water on myself. 【Hardcore Review of this “Midnight Bull Trap”】: Look at the 1-hour chart in Image 1, from 265.01 it sharply V-shaped rallied, forcibly breaking through the MA20 and MA60 resistance. The MACD bottom golden cross appeared, and the red bars surged up like they were on drugs, looking terrifyingly strong, as if about to skyrocket. But switching to the data in Image 2, I burst out laughing: the long position account ratio is as high as 75.69%! The long-short ratio reached 3.11! 【Unique Insight: The Dealer’s “Chain Trap”】: In the middle of the night with extremely poor liquidity, the manipulator uses a small amount of funds to pull out a big bullish candle just to create the illusion of a “bullish rebound.” This 75% retail chasing longs are the ultimate suckers the dealer plans to harvest next. The current negative funding rate indicates shorts are stubbornly topping out. The dealer will very likely first push the price up to liquidate high-leverage shorts, then reverse to smash the market, wiping out this 75% long crowd all at once. 【Macro Logic】: The election just concluded, BTC and ETH are still repeatedly testing heavy resistance zones above, and off-exchange funds have not entered the market at all. BCH, as an established coin lacking independent narrative, often experiences sudden night spikes caused by independent manipulators running localized “pig butchering” schemes. 【My Advice】: Use the coldest macro perspective to watch the deadliest deep V. 1. Never chase longs at market price: rushing in now means becoming a cushion for that 75% camp. MACD is severely overbought at a high level and could cross down at any time. 2. Beware of bear traps: although the bulls are crowded #Прогноз financial report of Sony: what are the results in gaming and music sectors? Sony (SONY) before the report at the end of 2026: shifting focus in gaming from hardware (decline of PS5) to high-margin software and services maintains margin at a high level, and streaming drives growth in the music sector. The asset trades as a balanced media giant: slowing overall revenue growth is offset by high operational efficiency. This morning, many in the circle joked that Brother Ba Bai was once again precisely "baited" by the dog whales. In the past few hours, BTC plunged continuously, shaking out many who chased the highs and causing their mentality to collapse, then quickly reversed out of a deep V. I wonder if any brothers successfully bottom-fished near the 75,000 low. I just received a warning email about BTC breaking below 76,000, and shortly after, a rebound alert at 78,000 popped up. This kind of wick shakeout market makes buying the dip very cost-effective. This shakeout script was very clear: BTC directly smashed down to a low of $75,734, more than $600 lower than the previous low, triggering a large number of technical stop-loss orders, then violently pulled back to $77,977. The 24-hour rebound exceeded $2,500, forming a classic hammer candlestick with a long lower shadow, a typical false breakout shakeout pattern. In the past 24 hours, over 90,000 people were liquidated in the crypto market, with total liquidations reaching $419 million. Long positions were liquidated first, then shorts, completing a thorough double kill of longs and shorts, basically cleaning out the floating chips below. On the other side, $SOXL also quickly rebounded from a deep pit of 65.53 to 74.17. Large funds directly entered to bottom-fish, and with triple leverage, the rebound strength was quite fierce, showing very obvious signs of capital scrambling. Now, the US midterm elections are in the vote-counting stage. The market has formed a clear and unanimous expectation betting on the Democrats sweeping both the House and Senate. Subsequent policies will lean towards liquidity easing, which is a direct positive catalyst for technology, semiconductors, and the crypto sector. The increased tolerance for inflation will also further open up valuation space for growth stocks $ZEC rebound not over yet? Is there still a chance to see the 1400 level again? Today's market is indeed quite interesting. The overall market isn't particularly strong, but ZEC has followed its own rhythm, rising nearly 17.8% in a short time. Friends who previously set up short positions are probably feeling the pressure now! I tend to believe that this rise is not just simply following the market but is driven by its own news and expectations. What’s especially worth noting is the upcoming 民主党横扫国会，加密立法死了，但加密没死 参议院民主党 52 席，翻转六个红州。沃伦将执掌参议院银行委员会，Waters 执掌众议院金融服务委员会。 一、CLARITY 法案进入死亡倒计时。 9 月 15 日程序性投票 49-50，差 11 票。现在连排期都上不去。TD Cowen 的判断：两年内不可能通过。 二、传票权换手，这一条最容易被忽略。 Waters 的委员会拿到传票权，可以查特朗普家族的加密项目、查 CZ 的赦免。未来两年会持续有负面头条，专门砸在"政治关联币"上。 但有三件事，没变： · 现货 ETF 撤不掉。 · 监管规则照走。SEC 的加密资产规则、CFTC 的交易所框架，都在机构现有权限内，不需要国会点头。 · 立法冻结两年，行业不会冻结两年。 市场早就吃掉了这个消息： 彭博 301 位交易员调查，民主党横扫情景下年底 BTC 中位数 76,450 美元。现在 77,345。价格就站在这个定价上，不会再有二次冲击。 所以别把选举当开仓理由。 真正要盯的是这三件事： 11/6 十月非农 11/11 MSCI 决定是否剔除 MSTR 等比特币储备公司 12/9 联储决策#توقعات تقرير أرباح سوني: كيف أداء قطاع الألعاب والموسيقى؟ Nikkei 225 surges to a three-month high, driven by the resonance of four forces. The yen is weak, Toyota and Sony convert overseas dollar profits back to yen, making their financial statements look better and performance easier to exceed expectations. Exchange reforms are serious, forcing low-valuation companies to buy back shares and increase dividends, attracting global value funds. AI and semiconductors are hotspots; Japan's equipment and materials chain is indispensable, and SoftBank is also making big bets on AI. The central bank is raising rates slowly, liquidity remains loose, and foreign capital continues to buy the five major trading companies. Whether the stock market's excitement can spread to crypto is worth watching. $BTC#PalantirQ3 revenue grew 96%, but the stock price fell instead of rising Palantir delivered a perfect report card, yet the stock price dropped for two consecutive days. To translate: the earnings won, but the stock price lost. Here's what I saw: Q3 revenue was $2.313 billion, up 96% year-over-year, while the expectation was only $2.18 billion; adjusted EPS was $0.44, expected $0.41; U.S. commercial revenue was $984 million, up 148%, surpassing government business revenue of $953 million for the first time in history; the full-year guidance was also raised to $8.53 billion. So what happened? Before the earnings, the stock closed at $178.34, dropped to $175.40 on the first day, and then fell near $170 during the second day’s trading, a decline of over 3% in two days. Investment banks are not worried though; Citibank raised the target price from $250 to $265, Cantor from $156 to $207. My view: This is not a problem with performance, but the valuation is too high. With a price-to-earnings ratio of 122, good news has long been priced into the stock. No matter how good the earnings are, the valuation needs to come down first to catch a breath. What I will do: Not chase it, wait for the valuation to reach a comfortable level before considering. The invalidation conditions are simple: if the Q4 guidance is not met, or if commercial growth slows down, then this logic breaks. Earnings beat expectations but the stock price still fell, would you buy the dip or keep waiting?  $ETH $BTC $SOL #Palantir #PLTRearnings #USstocks#索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？ Q1 FY26: Revenue ¥937.1 billion, Operating Profit ¥202 billion (YoY +37%) - Revenue nearly flat, profit significantly up, driven by: favorable exchange rates, tariff refunds; offsetting PS5 hardware shipment decline, weaker third-party software, next-gen console R&D investment, studio restructuring costs ​ - Existing base: PS5 cumulative sales >93 million units, platform monthly active accounts 125 million, user engagement stable; PS+ price increase, subscription service is a stable cash flow source ​ - Full-year upward revised guidance: Revenue ¥4.54 trillion, Operating Profit ¥660 billion ​ - Highlights: Profit target raised very clearly, core reasons are no longer large Bungie impairments, prioritizing first-party blockbusters + subscription services that boost gross margin; hardware no longer focused on volume, prioritizing hardware profit margin ​ - Risks: First-party new release schedule, Bungie’s subsequent monetization, next-gen console investment continuing to consume profits; console hardware constrained by memory costs, no volume expansion expected #US Midterm Elections: Democrats Win Control of Both Houses of Congress The Democrats have taken the majority in both houses of Congress. The White House remains with Trump, but starting January next year, Democrats will control who sets the agenda and who chairs the committees. For the crypto community, keep an eye on these matters: 1. Clarity Act. Simply put, it sets rules for crypto: which falls under the SEC and which under the CFTC. The House has passed it, but the Senate didn't even meet the threshold to discuss it in September. Between the election and the new Congress taking office on January 3, the old Congress can still push it. This period is called the lame-duck session. If it doesn't pass then, the bill will expire and the next Congress will start over. Wall Street analysts judge that with Democrats controlling both houses, don't expect Clarity to pass in the next two years. 2. Personnel. The Senate Banking Committee chair is more likely to go to Elizabeth Warren, who is tougher on crypto. 3. Ohio. The industry super PAC Fairshake spent about fifty to sixty million on ads trying to help Republican Jon Husted and block Democrat Sherrod Brown. In the end, Brown won back the seat. Money can buy ads, but not seats. Don't read "Democrats won" as "crypto is doomed." The presidential veto power is still in the White House, and radical anti-crypto laws won't pass easily. What to watch next: whether Clarity gets a last push during the lame-duck session, and who will be named chair of the banking-related committees.Many people analyze Bitcoin by habitually opening the K-line chart, first looking at price rises and falls, then searching for support and resistance. But the factors that truly influence market direction go far beyond the K-line. I believe observing BTC requires paying attention to at least four dimensions: 1. Price Structure Are the daily and 4-hour trends consistent? Are there effective breakouts at key levels? 2. Trading Volume Is the rise accompanied by volume? Is there a significant volume surge during declines? 3. Capital Flow Changes in spot ETF funds, inflows and outflows on exchanges, and overall market liquidity. 4. Macro Environment Federal Reserve interest rate policies, the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and global risk appetite. A single indicator alone rarely determines market direction. Only by combining price, volume, capital, and the macro environment can a more complete analytical framework be established. Watching the market is not just about watching the price. It’s more about understanding the capital and logic behind the price. When you analyze BTC, which indicator do you focus on the most? #比特币 #BTC行情 #加密市场 #宏观经济#AAOI高速光模块放量，Q3财报能否超预期？ The source of any outperformance is most likely not in the 800G itself (which is already fully priced in), but rather in two marginal variables: ① Whether the actual shipment volume of 1.6T at the end of Q3 is faster than the conservative wording of "initial shipment," and whether management's guidance for the 1.6T pace in Q4 is stronger than expected; ② The profit margin contribution from CATV, with guidance of $100 million–$110 million. If the actual figure is at the high end and the margin is better than expected, it can partially offset the drag on total profit caused by the decline in 100G. Conversely, the biggest downside risk is the simultaneous realization of the 100G decline and 800G capacity constraints: revenue barely hitting the lower half of guidance while expansion costs remain rigid, further compressing profits. The market is especially sensitive to "delays"—after the last earnings report, the stock price once retreated by 46%, indicating that the pricing leaves little room for execution risk tolerance.#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 US Midterm Elections: Democrats Take Control of Both Houses of Congress US Stock Market Midday Commentary (November 5, 2026): Democrats Won, but AI Hardware Got Hit by Its Own People? The market is very divided. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are all rallying intraday; Amazon surged over 7% at one point, Microsoft over 5%. On the other hand, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped more than 3.8% intraday, with Nvidia, TSMC, and Broadcom generally down over 2%, and Lumentum crashed 11% at one point. The index looks okay overall, but the AI hardware chain has very few gains from top to bottom. This is related to the midterm elections, but don’t put all the blame on the Democrats. The Democrats swept both houses, Texas and Ohio governors flipped blue, and expectations for tighter data center approvals and AI regulation are real. It’s normal for the hardware side to take the first hit. But what’s really moving funds from hardware to software is another factor: the biggest gainers—Amazon, Microsoft, and Google—are precisely the three that have spent the most on computing power in recent years. Those spending money have stock prices up 7%, while those receiving money have stock prices down 4%. The market is repricing "who bears the risk." Those buying hardware are betting that capacity will never be enough; those buying cloud and software are betting "I’m already collecting rent." The Democrats just gave funds an excuse to pull out of the crowded hardware trade first. This is an internal "hard-to-soft" shift within AI, not the end of the AI narrative. Wait for the hardware side to clear chips and for regulatory expectations to be fully priced in before looking for a rebound; don’t chase the software side at the peak, wait for a pullback confirmation.Brothers, this wave's trend is really strong! It surged with volume from around 78,000, forcing shorts to cover, with the highest spike reaching above 80,800. Currently, the price is oscillating high near 80,400 USDT. Looking at this big bullish candle, many friends who are out of position must be slapping their thighs: "Missed out again!" or rushing to chase longs at the current price. Stay calm! Don't blindly short. From the chart perspective, although the 4-hour and 1-hour MACD show a golden cross with volume above the zero line, oscillators like KDJ and STOCHRSI have already shown severe overbought conditions (the 4-hour J line even exceeds 100). This indicates short-term upward momentum is overextended, and technically there is a strong need for a corrective pullback. Chasing longs directly at 80,400 is very likely to buy at the short-term "ceiling." Once the main force pushes down to shake out positions, high leverage will be wiped out instantly. Therefore, rather than chasing highs now, it's better to patiently wait for it to "pull back to pick up buyers." Today, I’m sharing a strategy with a very high win rate and risk-reward ratio. The 79,500-80,000 zone is not only a dense area of the 1-hour WMA5 and WMA10 moving averages but also the defensive line of the 4-hour WMA5. More importantly, this is the first classic retest confirmation after breaking through the 78,000-79,000 consolidation range earlier. When the price returns here, all overbought indicators can perfectly cool down.#Oklo核能供电布局距离商业化还有多远？ It will be about two years until the "first commercial reactor selling electricity"; and at least another 4 to 5 years or even longer before it truly expands and becomes a stable, large-scale power supply solutionThis early morning surge wiped out my ETH short position directly hitting the stop loss at $2370, with a floating loss of -215% ROI, I admit defeat 🙃 $ETH up 6.4% in 24h reaching $2433, $BTC breaking 80,000, 1H RSI at 93 and 92 respectively, this is not a rebound but a short squeeze 📈 With the midterm elections giving Democrats control of both chambers, uncertainty is clearing out, causing this indiscriminate big bullish candle, but ETFs have had net outflows for 5 consecutive days, institutions are exiting while retail is chasing. According to indicators, 4H is overbought + 1H RSI 93, very likely to retest $2350 within 4 hours. Planning to short ETH at $2440, stop loss at $2480, target $2350; short BTC at $80,500, stop loss at $81,200, target $79,000. Don't chase longs before tonight's non-farm payrolls, entering at 1H RSI 93 is just carrying the bulls. $ETH $BTC Do you think this is the start of a bull market or a dead cat bounce? Take your side in the comments 👇#美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 BNB/USDT Short Outlook * Current Price: $BNB 718.80 * 24h Change: +2.91% * Key Resistance: $BNB 725.78 * Key Support: $678.13 * Prediction: BNB is recovering from the $678.13 low. If it breaks past resistance at $725, look for a push toward $745. Watch the $725 level closely! #BNB #Crypto #Trading #Web3 Palantir's Q3 revenue grew 96% but the stock price fell, reflecting a similarly cautious atmosphere of “good news hard to realize” mapped onto SKHYNIX. I maintain a short-term bearish oscillation judgment. Although the four-hour level has rebounded over 11% from around 977.7, the one-hour structure has weakened, falling 9.2% from the higher point, with the rebound looking more like a correction rather than a reversal. The funding rate of -0.1954% shows shorts paying fees, with 44,000 positions unchanged, indicating selling pressure is still accumulating; the buy-sell ratio in the top 10 levels is 1.10, with only a slight advantage on the buy side, and a turnover of 397,000 is insufficient to support a breakout. Strategically, a light short position can be tried on a rebound to 1057.3, with a stop loss set at 1091.5 and a target at 985.6; if volume increases and it stabilizes above 1098.3, then reverse to long, with a stop loss at 1078.4 and a target near 1145. Single trade positions should be controlled within 5%, and exit immediately if broken. — This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading. — $SKHYNIX #Circle Q3 revenue exceeds expectations, USDC on-chain transaction volume grows 49% #Palantir Q3 revenue grows 96%, stock price falls instead of rising $SKHYNIX I got liquidated, I was bearish, and then it went crazy up. I just stared at that zero line in my account for five minutes, smoked half a cigarette, couldn't bring myself to stub it out. Was my bearish reasoning wrong? The Democrats swept, regulatory tightening was a clear signal; ETFs had $1.157 billion withdrawn over three consecutive days, BlackRock alone pulled out $734 million. Logically, this market should have crashed down. But the market tonight didn’t follow my logic at all. It only told one thing: whose short positions would break first. In the past 24 hours, $595 million in shorts were liquidated, with Bitcoin shorts accounting for $268 million. Nearly $930 million in leveraged positions were forcibly closed, and the price was forcibly pushed up by these stop-loss orders. My bearish logic was completely correct, but my stop loss was placed right in the middle of that fuel pile. This is the most frustrating part: you get the direction right, but the market first clears you out, then moves in your predicted direction—only by then you’re already off the ride. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 1121.6 这个低点砸出来的时候，赌升级利好进场的人直接被打懵😮。 这次回撤直接跌破 1200 到 1300 美元支撑区间，24 小时跌幅摸到 10%，成交倍率卡在 0.03，反弹的时候根本没有资金愿意接盘。一小时、四小时的行情节奏同步走弱，这个信号只能说明短线盘面偏软，没法直接否定 NU7 这次协议改动本身的价值。 升级定在 11 月 5 日上线，出块时长会从 75 秒压缩至 25 秒，Orchard 吞吐从 2.9 笔每秒提升到 6.6 笔每秒，算得上 ZEC 近年最实在的一次底层更新。协议升级只是补齐底层基建，它催生不了新的买入需求，这也是当下最拧巴的地方。 灰度 ZCSH 持续流出，单周流出规模 9356 万美元，产品规模从接近 9.8 亿缩水到 7.51 亿。筹码分歧拉得很开，一笔近 1400 万美元头寸押注升级兑现，早期筹码也在 1514 美元位置离场兑现 2700 万盈利，社区拨款争议还带动大额持有者选择清仓离场。 点开你的持仓列表，找到绑定这次升级预期的单子，认真核对止损点位，想好这笔仓位能承受的亏损上限。 $Bage called for a bottom-fishing opportunity in SanDisk, only to be slapped in the face by a sharp drop shortly after In the financial live broadcast room, Bage shared his market view, pointing out that the storage sector was entering a bottom-fishing window and expressed optimism about SanDisk's recovery rally. Many viewers in the live room were tempted by the analysis and prepared to enter the market, hoping for a reversal in the storage cycle and anticipating a rebound in SanDisk's stock price. However, the market did not follow expectations. News came that Kioxia's next quarter profit guidance fell short of expectations, the price increase of upstream flash memory chips slowed down, and the storage sector's prosperity expectations quickly cooled. Kioxia plunged sharply first, and due to industry chain linkage, SanDisk was also sold off by funds, causing its stock price to continue to decline. One moment they were talking about the bottom-fishing logic, and the next moment the target stock plunged sharply, creating a vivid slap-in-the-face scene. The atmosphere in the live room quickly reversed; the originally bullish comments decreased, and many viewers lamented the harshness of cyclical stocks. Here, the core logic must be distinguished: storage is a strong cyclical industry, and relying solely on subjective judgment to catch the bottom is easy to fall into traps. Kioxia, as an upstream wafer manufacturer, its performance guidance is a leading signal for the entire industry chain. Bage's judgment was just a personal market speculation and not guaranteed to be realized. #美国中期选举：民主党赢得国会两院控制权 $SNDK $SOXL strong downtrend + oversold ≠ bottom fishing. Tonight the market is rising, but semiconductors are getting hit: SanDisk down -8% intraday, SOXL -11%. Let's analyze these two with two indicators. 【First, look at moving averages to determine direction】 SanDisk current price 1,032, daily MA20 at 1,356, deviation -24%, even breaking the annual moving average tonight. SOXL current price 64, MA20 at 104, deviation -38%, no moving averages left underfoot. Both show textbook-level bearish alignment, my discipline in four words: no long positions allowed. 【Second, look at RSI to find entry points】 SanDisk RSI(12) 26.8, SOXL 29.0, both deeply oversold. Many get itchy to bottom fish when seeing oversold. But look at trend strength: ADX 46 and 53, indicating a strong trend market. In a strong trend, oversold conditions can dull — after oversold, it can get even more oversold. RSI is a tool to find entry points within a trend, not a signal to catch falling knives. 【Why the drop】 Not a mistaken sell-off, but a re-pricing: Democrats took both chambers, tightening expectations for data center regulation, AI infrastructure chain being precisely sold off; after Kioxia's guidance shock, NAND contract price increase dropped from 70% to 25%, storage cycle logic being re-evaluated. 【What to wait for】 If you want to bottom fish, wait for at least one of two signals: price recovers above MA20, or a panic break below a key level followed by a volume-backed recovery. Now? Grab a small stool and watch the show. Do you have positions in the storage chain? Did you dodge this wave? This is a "short squeeze + US stock risk-on" composite market. Shorts are crushed, but new longs have not yet entered. The pattern of this market is — the first wave is the strongest, the second wave requires real money. Key point: OI keeps decreasing while price keeps rising, indicating the rally relies on short covering, not buying. After shorts cover, it depends on whether new money takes over. 2. Three possible moves after the surge (next 12-24 hours) A. High-level sideways digestion (healthiest) 45% hold 80,250-80,400 80,000-81,200 oscillation, waiting for daily close B. Second surge 30% 4H breaks above 81,350 with volume rebound 81,970 → 82,000-82,650 C. Pullback confirmation 25% breaks below 80,200 79,700 → 78,700 (still healthy if not below 78,000) Note: Volume has decreased in three stages (1,530 → 1,494 → 500 → 419). Price hasn't dropped, but buying is retreating — this is the most typical high-level turnover characteristic after a surge. 3. Trading strategy (two identities) 🅰️ $BTC If you already have long positions (floating profit) Trigger action Execute Move stop loss up immediately stop all at 79,650 (below pullback low) First partial sell 1/3 at 81,150-81,250 Second partial sell 1/3 at 81,900-82,000 Keep 1/3 until daily close > SOL is still in the spotlight of the public chain narrative, but ZEC has already started grabbing the microphone. I stand on the side of "real rotation." It's not because the privacy coin story sounds better, but because the OKX spot trading volume has shown a glaring contrast: ZEC, about 102 million USDT in 24 hours. SOL, about 99 million USDT in 24 hours. The gap is small, but the provocation is significant. When discussing the leading public chains, it's lively, but when it comes to the trading table, ZEC has actually taken the seat ahead of SOL. More importantly, ZEC rose about +9.0%, SOL rose about +3.6%. With stronger price and higher trading volume, I prefer to see this as a shift in capital attention rather than just riding the hype. Of course, trading volume is not net inflow, and surpassing SOL doesn't mean taking over the market. But to directly label this signal as a "one-day wonder" is also jumping to conclusions. In this battle for the spotlight, which explanation do you support? A Real rotation / B One-day wonder #Solana稳定币卡月消费额创新高 $ZEC $SOL $133 million USD was funneled directly into exchange accounts through traditional banking channels, and this scheme is wilder than you think. French cooperative bank Arkéa's online banking platform Fortuneo appears to have been targeted by organized fraud. Scammers used forged identities to pass KYC, opened accounts on exchanges like Kraken, then transferred money from Fortuneo to these accounts under their own names, bypassing recipient verification. Once the funds arrived, they were immediately converted into stablecoins and withdrawn. On-chain tracking shows $63 million USD was swapped through UniswapX into 27,553 ETH, with some further laundered into XMR via Wagyu. Kraken has frozen the related accounts overnight, stating their own system was not compromised. The $133 million USD is only the visible portion on-chain; the actual amount may be higher, with over $30 million USD already completely moved away. ZachXBT says this laundering method doesn't resemble Lazarus, but the identities remain unidentified. Honestly, the most surreal part isn't that the crypto space was used as a channel, but that traditional banks' KYC was bypassed en masse with forged identities. Exchanges froze accounts quickly, mainstream coins remain untouched, and $ETH has even been rising these days. But if regulators tighten controls along this line, and exchanges' KYC and withdrawal processes are collectively overhauled, that will be a real headache. Can this money be recovered? #Security TRUMP/USDT Short Outlook * Current Price: $TRUMP 1.419 * 24h Change: -10.58% * Support: $TRUMP 1.406 * Prediction: Bearish pressure continues as price stays below moving averages. A drop below $1.406 could target $1.300. #TRUMP #Crypto #Trading #Web3 The Democratic Party won both chambers, but do you think it's over? Senate seats are 54:44, with 2 seats still undecided. House seats are 222:138, with 75 seats still undecided. However, don't forget that the significance of legislators and the president is different. For the presidential election, 270 votes to 268 votes or 370 votes to 168 votes might not make much difference; it's the same president taking office. But the two chambers' legislators are different. Take the House of Representatives as an example: currently, the results are 222 seats for the Democrats, 138 for the Republicans, and 75 seats undecided. Two extreme scenarios, 297:138 and 222:213, are different because the vote margin between the two parties affects decision-making in the House. Take the recently discussed "Crypto Clarity Act" as an example. The Democrats are not very supportive of this bill. If the Democrats have 222 seats to the Republicans' 213, then after moderate amendments, the "Crypto Clarity Act" still has a chance to pass in the House. But if it's 297:138, the probability of the "Crypto Clarity Act" passing might be relatively slim. This is the suspense that still exists in the midterm elections. The Republicans lost both chambers, but the suspense lies in how much they lost by. This is also very important!
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