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Recently been quite busy, so haven't written posts. Here's an analysis of $BTC $SOL $ETH
The market has been continuously dropping from around 84900 to a low of 79000, with a wick stabilizing but without volume. Afterwards, it has been consolidating sideways between 79000-81000. Last night, the Federal Reserve meeting met expectations with no change in interest rates. The Fed Chair's speech caused the market to rise first then fall. There was a 24-hour long/short liquidation of 357 million.
This morning, the market dropped to around 79600 with clear signs of stabilization. There is capital supporting the downside, plus a large order of 85 million USD between 79500-79550, forming a support level. Therefore, a bottom-fishing opportunity is present. Current position is 79800 #Google Q3 revenue growth, net profit decline, earnings per share below expectations Looking at the overall trend of Ethereum, the complete bearish wave from the 2750 high is the most certain and profitable phase of this round of the market. Currently, the core bearish profits of this wave have been fully realized, and the market pattern has completely changed.
The current key support at 2280 is strongly defended by major funds. This point is a watershed for the short-term market. Once it is effectively broken, the market is very likely to enter an uncontrollable decline. Therefore, at this stage, decisively avoid short-selling operations; the bearish trading window has closed.
Considering the medium- to long-term trend, the subsequent quality layout points are very clear: the high short opportunity around the 2500 range and the low long opportunity around the 2130 range are the only high cost-performance trend trades. Other ranges are only suitable for small position short-term arbitrage.
Currently, I have positioned a small long at 2300. As the monthly close approaches, the market is expected to form a long lower shadow, laying a quality high and low point foundation for next month's market. In trading, I always maintain a light position, never choosing to be out of the market and waiting. I continuously align with the market rhythm, waiting for precise trend opportunities to materialize and seize subsequent certain wave opportunities. $BTC $ETH #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 BTC at $79,900, do you dare to take it?
The Fed just turned hawkish, whales sold off 8,000 coins in 24 hours, BTC dropped to 79,900 — but RSI is already oversold. Is this the bottom, or the last cut before the bottom?
Someone in the group shouted "It's going back to 60,000," your finger hovers over the close position button, wanting to cut losses but afraid of cutting at the floor.
I understand. Because every key support level is a slaughterhouse for retail investors.
First thing: The Fed didn’t kill you, it’s the words "higher for longer" that did.
On October 28, the FOMC kept rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%, as expected. But the statement changed the economy description from "solid" to "strong," inflation still described as "elevated," and two officials directly advocated for rate hikes.
After the meeting, BTC surged to 81,700, then fell back during the Asian session. The probability of a December rate hike once soared to 70%-85%.
The market isn’t afraid of no rate cuts; it’s afraid that "the economy is too strong, so no rate cuts."
But note — the hawkish signals are partially priced in. The real verdict comes from Q3 GDP and September PCE on October 29. Core PCE is expected at 3.6%; if hotter, 79,000 won’t hold; if cooling, a rebound is imminent.
Second thing: Whales sold 8,000 coins, are you panicking? But ETFs are still buying.
Whales sold over 8,000 BTC in 24 hours, sounds scary. But on the same day, US spot Bitcoin ETFs had net inflows of about $137 million, mainly into IBIT.
There were outflows from ETFs earlier this month, but buying is still ongoing. BTC has dropped 36% from the October 2025 ATH of 126,000, with leveraged longs liquidated repeatedly.
Third thing: The technicals are walking a tightrope, 79,000 is the lifeline.
Falling from 84,500-85,000, breaking below the 50-day EMA (80,700-81,700), now testing 79,000-80,000. Daily RSI is 34-40, oversold but no clear divergence yet. Volume expands on declines, dominated by long liquidations.
Daily structure shows lower highs, oscillating downward.
Hold 79,000 and rebound with volume to reclaim 81,000: short-term bottoming.
Break 79,000 with 4H confirmation: opens space to 76,000.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
ETFs still have net inflows, IBIT supports
Supply shrinks post-halving, circulating 20.1 million coins, high hash rate
BTC dominance at 59%, still resilient against altcoins
RSI oversold, leveraged positions cleared
On the other side:
Fed hawkish, 70%-85% chance of December hike
PCE/GDP data risks, US bond yields near 5%, strong dollar
Whales taking profits, technical breakdown
End-of-month options expiry + midterm elections in November amplify volatility
Key levels:
Resistance above: 80,500-81,000 (former support turned resistance + moving averages) → 81,700-82,500 → 84,000+
Support below: 79,600-79,000 (recent lows + Fibonacci) → 77,000-78,000 (structure/cost zone) → 76,000
Trading strategy:
Short term (1-3 days):
Hold 79,600-79,000, rebound with volume and reclaim 80,500, light long positions targeting 81,000-81,700, stop loss below 78,800.
Break 79,000 with 4H close confirmation, go short targeting 78,000-77,000, stop loss above 79,500.
Leverage within 5-10x, position size 5-10%.
Mid term (1-2 weeks):
Buy in batches near 79,000, reduce positions at 81,000-82,500; if break 77,000, wait or hedge.
Wait for three signals: PCE/GDP data release + continuous ETF inflows + reclaim 50-day moving average. Once above 81,000, consider mid-term longs.
Long term:
Current position near structural support, can dollar-cost average in batches, but short-term volatility is high, don’t go all in. Halving won’t save your short-term trades but can save your long-term positions.
Strict stop loss, never fully loaded. Watch liquidation heatmaps and funding rates; currently neutral to bearish. If worried about systemic risk, use options or reduce overall exposure.
BTC now is like the end of 2022 —
Everyone waits for lower prices, but it starts when no one believes. But this time, don’t gamble. 79,900 is neither bottom nor top, it’s a truth mirror: revealing who is betting and who is waiting.
You fear the drop; the whales fear you won’t cut losses.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Brokerages will be the first to qualify for testing clients. Reading this Russian news, what I care most about is this order of priority. The investor testing standards have been finalized, and the draft was submitted last week to the Central Bank's Basic Standards Committee. It is expected that brokerages will begin testing as early as the end of November.
In this story, an exam has been added before the entry to crypto investment, with brokerages taking the examiner's position first. I tend to see this as a positive development in the construction of regulated channels, rather than a positive for coin prices: understanding ability must be tested before purchase, at least putting risk awareness on the table. But whether the test can truly screen for understanding cannot be judged solely by the existence of standards.
My own speculation is that if the questions can verify investors' understanding of risks, then this threshold is meaningful; if it is just about memorizing answers to pass, it easily becomes a mere formality. What do you all think? Will this story lead to effective user protection, or just another procedural step?Looking toward 2027, the challenge is sustaining margins as production expands and competitors invest to capture the same opportunity.
Multi year contracts can improve revenue visibility, but pricing power and execution will determine how much of that demand translates into lasting profit.
Samsung is benefiting from the AI memory boom. The bigger test is whether it can preserve that advantage as the industry scales.
#SamsungQ3RecordProfit Yet the quarter was not entirely smooth. Net profit came in below expectations, while the Device Experience division posted an operating loss.
Samsung’s headline numbers are impressive, but the strength remains concentrated in semiconductors.
The company also spent KRW 29T on capital expenditure during the quarter, showing how expensive it is to build capacity for this demand.
#SamsungQ3RecordProfit I prefer to see Sony's incubation plan this time as a "commercial shortcoming remedy" rather than the starting gun for an imminent explosion of on-chain entertainment. For development teams lacking publishing and operational capabilities, this support might be more tangible than a big company's brand.
Sony Group announced the launch of a global on-chain entertainment incubation plan, targeting global creators and startups, supporting entertainment products and services developed based on Soneium, providing technical, collaboration, business development, marketing, community operation, and financing support. The previous two rounds have supported 43 projects since 2024, and the new plan's application period is from October to December 2026, with selection expected to continue until March 2027.
What concerns me is that the support list does not stop at technical infrastructure. Creating entertainment products is only halfway; how to reach the audience, build communities, and maintain operations also consume resources. If these supports can be implemented, I speculate that the resistance for small teams to move from prototype to commercialization will be somewhat reduced.
However, I will not automatically translate "Sony incubation" as "Sony popular IP going on-chain," as the materials do not promise this. The 43 projects indicate previous investment but cannot directly prove commercial success; this round still requires application and selection, so there is a distance from results being realized.
My judgment is that this is more favorable to the developer supply side and still far from certainty on the consumer side. What I want to see next is how the incubation support is implemented, rather than pricing the big company's halo in advance.Two tech companies released earnings reports early this morning. Looking at them together is more interesting than reading the resolutions.
Google's revenue is growing, but profits are falling, and earnings per share missed expectations. Microsoft’s Azure grew 48%, exceeding expectations.
Both are in AI, but the difference lies in this: Google is still spending money to compete for talent, while Microsoft has already started charging enterprises.
Whether enterprises are willing to pay for AI has been debated for a year. Microsoft's earnings report provides a reference answer: yes, and they are paying more and more. The 48% growth is not just a story; it comes from contracts signed with one enterprise after another.
So now AI should be viewed in layers, not as a single sector: chip sellers, cloud sellers, and those spending money to develop applications. The first two layers are counting money, while the third is still struggling. Google's problem is not that its AI is bad, but that its AI hasn’t figured out who to charge yet.
In the future, when you see AI news, don’t first ask if the technology is good; first ask, who is paying?
Where the money is, that’s where the market is.
Who do you think will be the next to deliver impressive results?
#微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 $MSFT $GOOGL Spending big on AI again, but this time the market only rewards the one "showing revenue"
After hours on 10/28, GOOGL plunged about 10%, while MSFT surged nearly 7% before pulling back. Both are heavily investing in AI, but the market reacted oppositely.
The difference in one sentence: whether the money turns into revenue. Alphabet Q3 GAAP EPS was $2.12 (an $8.7 billion equity investment loss dragged down EPS by 0.55); adjusted EPS was 2.67, below the expected 3.02. Quarterly capex was 51.4 billion, FCF negative 9.07 billion, negative for two consecutive quarters. MSFT Azure grew 48%, and the market sees investment turning into revenue.
That same night, ServiceNow and Fortinet both dropped over 15% after hours, with Fortinet also lowering its full-year service revenue guidance.
I think the AI market has shifted from "who invests the most" to "who recovers the most." Tonight at 20:30 (Taiwan) Q3 GDP preliminary + September PCE, 21:30 US market opens. Who will be next to be tested?
The same theme can yield completely opposite results. Rather than betting on a single stock, it’s more important to organize your judgment into a trackable strategy, which is what the on-chain strategy platform OWL is doing.
#AI #USStocks The most eye-catching on today's afternoon trending list is $AXIS (Axis Robotics). As of 15:00 Beijing time on October 29 (CoinGecko), AXIS is priced at $0.1449, down about 35% in 24 hours, down about 54% in 7 days, more than halved from the October 24 high of 0.370; 24-hour trading volume is about $116 million, nearly 5 times the market cap (about $23.9 million), indicating extremely high turnover.
No negative news about the project itself has been seen; the main reason is profit-taking after a more than threefold surge earlier. The project focuses on physical AI/robot training data, where people teach robots to work in simulated environments to generate data, riding the hottest narrative this year.
My view: Only 16.5% is circulating, FDV is about $145 million, a thin market cap means fast rises and falls. A good narrative does not equal a price bottom; amplified trading volume often signals the greatest divergence. I am more concerned whether the volume can shrink and how the subsequent unlocking schedule will be arranged. Real opportunities usually appear after everyone stops discussing it.As soon as Anthropic's prospectus came out, why is the entire internet questioning its huge computing power commitments? Is it about to blow up? Pharaoh directly said, it's not about blowing up, it's Wall Street's "accounting mode" kicking in. This isn't a prospectus; it's a sky-high IOU, and the market is now afraid it won't be able to repay it. Let's first see how big this IOU is. The prospectus reveals that Anthropic promises to pay SpaceX, Amazon AWS, and Google Cloud up to hundreds of billions of dollars in computing power fees over the next few years. Just the agreement with SpaceX requires paying $1.25 billion per month by 2029. It's like Pharaoh ordered water in the desert for ten years; whether anyone buys my camels or not, I have to pay for the water on time. What is the market questioning? First, can revenue keep up with the bills? Although Anthropic's annualized revenue has surged to $65 billion, can the speed of earning that money cover these fixed expenses that run into hundreds of billions? If AI demand slows down even a bit, this will become a crushing burden on cash flow. Second, over-reliance on computing power. Most computing power is locked with a few giants. SpaceX has the right to reclaim computing resources under certain conditions, leaving Anthropic extremely passive in negotiations, basically being choked. Third, amortization pressure. To support this computing power, the upfront investment in buying GPUs and building data centers is huge, and the depreciation expense allocated to each quarter will directly eat up profits completely. What does this mean for Bitcoin? The whale channel has been quite conflicted these days — the US spot BTC ETF has seen net inflows for three consecutive trading days (approximately 110M / 176M / 137M USD, totaling about 420M USD); meanwhile, in the same window, the ETH ETF is still bleeding, with a cumulative net outflow of about 1.3B in October.
The key point: within the same institutional channel, BTC is quietly accumulating while ETH is losing — this is a divergence in allocation preference, not the whole market shouting the same direction.
A two- or three-day inflow ≠ trend reversal; a large monthly outflow ≠ zeroing out. Keep an eye on whether IBIT / ETHA can narrow this divergence going forward.
Source: Farside (disclosure caliber), confidence medium-high. Do you trust more in "money piling into BTC" or "ETH being temporarily squeezed"? See you in the comments. $BTC $ETH The Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes, with a second test tonight.
The Fed kept rates at 3.75%–4.00%, as expected, but this is not truly positive news. The vote was 10 to 2, with two members directly supporting a 25 basis point hike; the statement also upgraded the economic assessment to "strong expansion," while emphasizing that inflation remains high, indicating growing internal hawkish divisions.
Market reactions are also contradictory. The S&P and Nasdaq both rose about 0.3%, the dollar index fell back to around 102, but the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.02%. Brent crude remains above $110, and high oil prices continue to increase the risk of inflation volatility. The Bank of Canada also raised rates by 25 basis points, so the global monetary environment has not shifted to easing.
Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. will release the preliminary Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation data, which will be the key for the next round of volatility.
For BTC and ETH, the pause in rate hikes has already been priced in. With data still hot, U.S. Treasuries and the dollar strengthening again, BTC may retest $80,000, and ETH’s decline could be greater; only if PCE cools down and the dollar and Treasury yields fall together will the rebound be sustainable.
Therefore, I remain neutral to slightly bearish and will not rush to go long just because of the words "no rate hike.""The vulnerability has been disclosed," these are the words I care about most. In daily life, discovering a leaking roof is actually a good thing, but marking the leak spots doesn't mean the tiles have been repaired. After retiring and studying digital assets, I often remind myself: don't mistake finding a problem for solving it.
This time, the language model discovered three vulnerabilities that can crash bitcoin nodes on Windows and Mac, which are also the first cases disclosed under Core's new disclosure policy. In my view, this matters more to node operators than market sentiment. AI helping to find vulnerabilities is progress in security tools; but after disclosure, whether maintainers can respond promptly is what determines if the nodes can run stably. The material doesn't mention the repair status, so I won't declare it safe on its behalf.
A reminder to young friends: don't just focus on the fresh term "AI discovery," also pay attention to the follow-up repair notes. When you judge the impact of such news, do you first look at how severe the vulnerability is, or whether the fix is adequate? $BTC contract long-short ratio directly hit 2.39, with historical percentile reaching 98%.
Large accounts have been reducing positions all along, while retail investors are aggressively adding leverage and holding on desperately.
The spot market has no bottom-supporting buy orders at all; it's just a bunch of high-leverage contracts stacked precariously on the edge of a cliff.
With this structure, the market makers even save the cost of smashing the market; by removing a few support orders, the longs will trample each other and bring the market down.
#BTC
$BTC
👇[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
As expected, the Federal Reserve held steady, but the noise about a rate hike in December is growing louder. What’s next for Bitcoin?
Pharaoh says straight up, don’t just focus on “holding steady”—that’s already an open secret. The real action is in the dot plot and what Waller says; whether there will be a hike in December is now like a mystery box.
First, look at this statement. The Fed unanimously voted to keep rates at 3.75%-4.00%, but the statement removed the phrase “inflation is moving down toward the 2% target” and replaced it with “inflation remains elevated.”
Why such a big split? Hawks (like Harker and Logan) think inflation is too resilient and financial conditions aren’t tight enough, so another hike is necessary. Doves (like Williams) see cracks in the labor market and think there’s no rush to act.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
In the short term, the bad news is priced in, and Bitcoin caught a breather. After the decision, Bitcoin stabilized around 79,000 and didn’t continue to drop.
But in the medium term, the sword hanging over its head hasn’t been removed. As long as the possibility of a December hike remains, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will struggle to truly fall. The 80,000 level is a psychological barrier above, and 78,000 is strong support below.
Pharaoh gives you a practical strategy: This is a classic “consolidation shakeout,” so don’t chase highs or panic sell in the middle. Wait for a pullback to 78,500–78,800 to stabilize, then lightly try going long with a stop loss at 77,800 $BTC $ETH #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Bitcoin has fallen back below the $84,000 to $85,000 range, which has blocked price increases four times this year. The inflow of funds into the US spot Bitcoin ETF has significantly cooled, with a net inflow of only about $67 million in the past two weeks; the main buy orders on Binance's spot order book have also shifted down to $78,000 to $79,000, with a scale of about $42 million. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's one-month realized volatility has dropped to about 25%, returning to the summer 2023 level; since August, the realized losses triggered by each round of declines have also continued to narrow, indicating that selling pressure has eased. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC In today's market rebound latest updates, it mentioned again the "high overlap of all Litecoin and Dogecoin miners."
Many people worry daily whether miners will sell off DOGE to crash the market, but they actually don't understand the brilliance of merged mining. Because LTC and DOGE are mined using the same algorithm, miners don't need to spend extra on electricity or computing power to get DOGE rewards while mining LTC for free.
This means the miners' costs are already covered by Litecoin, and selling $DOGE is pure profit. There won't be panic sell-offs due to "mining losses." This effectively builds an extremely strong reinforced concrete safe harbor for DOGE's network hashrate security and price defense.
The market bounced back from $0.07743 to $0.07848, with buying pressure and accumulation still steady.
Fundamentally, there are solid moats everywhere; short-term fluctuations should be seen as shakeouts that bring blessings.Strategy's earnings report is approaching, and the rebound in BTC book gains is likely to be the most eye-catching headline. But there is a date worth remembering: the company already disclosed on October 5 that it expected Q3 digital asset gains of about $20.91 billion.
In other words, this large figure did not suddenly appear only when the earnings report was released.
If the final result is close to the previous estimate, the market is more likely to next ask: Are there any new financing arrangements? Is the dollar reserve sufficient? What changes have occurred in the capital structure?
This is also why I am reluctant to judge Strategy solely based on net profit. BTC price increases can quickly improve book performance, but funding needs such as interest and preferred stock dividends still require specific cash arrangements.
Taxes will also affect the final profit. The company previously disclosed related deferred tax expense estimates, so digital asset gains cannot be directly regarded as the final profit shareholders receive.
I acknowledge the improvement brought by the BTC rebound, but the report confirms a market trend that has already occurred; the stock price still needs to consider upcoming changes.
Therefore, for this earnings report, I am more interested in how management plans for the next few quarters. Large gains are worth noting, but if you use a number the market already knows to expect a brand-new valuation increase, you must first think clearly: where exactly is the new information?
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 BTC今天涨0.49%，但这一周还跌4.25%。日线转涨、周线仍跌——这是止跌信号吗？ 先说新闻。价格侧：BTC报80,948.4美元，24小时 +0.49%、近一周 -4.25%；20日区间79,220.1到84,899.6。资金侧：ETF最新单日净流入1.115亿、5日净流出2,870万、10日净流入3.082亿。情绪侧：恐惧贪婪指数48到51。宏观侧：美元102.43（+0.10%）、黄金4,065.7（+0.68%）、标普500 7,722.6（+0.60%）。 再看资金影响。判断止跌要看三个条件：一是日线转涨（已满足）；二是情绪止跌回升（已满足，48到51）；三是资金转为持续流入（部分满足，单日转正但5日仍负）。三个条件里两个半满足，说明止跌信号正在形成，但还没确认。 对BTC的含义：止跌和反转是两件事。止跌只需要卖压消失，反转需要买盘持续。目前是止跌的早期——价格在79,220上方反复测试，卖压递减。要确认反转，需要看到周线转正加资金连续流入。 我接下来盯四个指标：一是周线能否收窄跌幅；二是5日资金口径能否转正；三是BTC能否站上82,000；四是79,220是否继续守住。#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
The most interesting thing about the Fed this time
is not that it kept interest rates unchanged,
but that internal divisions have already emerged.
Some worry about the economy,
while others are more concerned about inflation.
This indicates that the upcoming rate cuts
may not be as simple as everyone thinks.
Cut rates,
but if inflation rises again,
previous efforts might be wasted.
Don't cut rates,
interest rates remain high,
corporate financing costs won't come down,
and the economy and employment might not hold up.
The Fed is now facing
a dilemma between inflation and the economy.
For the crypto community,
you can't simply take rate cuts as a positive.
Moreover, the market never just trades on the final interest rate outcome,
but also on the gap between that outcome and the original expectations.
If everyone has already priced in a rate cut in December,
and the final cut is less than expected,
even without a rate hike,
the market could still fall.
So going forward,
besides watching the Fed's statements,
you also need to see how inflation and employment data develop.
What do you think?
Is it still possible for the Fed to continue cutting rates in December,
or is the market's expectation for rate cuts
somewhat too optimistic?
$BTC "Compensation will be given for staking rewards missed during user migration," this statement from Solflare gives me a bit of a déjà vu from the last round: usually, we check yields, but only revisit service providers and trust boundaries after a security incident. Veteran users seeing such announcements will somewhat pause first.
This time, unlike simply switching nodes, the compensation also brings the user costs during migration to the forefront. The material mentions that after a security incident with the staking service provider, a new validator node has gone live, and users can migrate themselves or wait for the application update to operate. I think compensation is a plus for repairing trust, but it is not proof that the security issue has been resolved: making up for rewards and preventing future incidents are two different matters.
Looking at it in the cycle, I prefer to see this as a test of the service's ability to handle aftermath rather than a positive sign for the sector. To really assess the quality, we still need to see if the migration and compensation can be effectively implemented. Do veteran users share the same familiarity? Would you migrate first or wait for clearer explanations about the security incident?#谷歌Q3營收增長，淨利潤下滑、每股收益不及預期 This earnings report from Google might put a damper on this round of AI rebound.
After hours, AI-related stocks collectively turned down, with Google plummeting nearly 10%, wiping out half a year's gains overnight.
The most glaring issue isn't revenue—$127.58 billion, up 25%, just slightly below expectations—but cash flow: operating cash flow for the quarter was $42.29 billion, but capital expenditures hit $51.36 billion, pushing free cash flow down to negative $9.07 billion, worsening quarter over quarter.
But saying AI demand has collapsed doesn't hold up. Cloud revenue doubled to $30.71 billion, showing real demand being converted into actual money.
The real question is: when will this growth cover the continuously expanding bills?
If other giants also report "rising revenue but pressured cash flow," market faith in AI returns will be discounted; conversely, if cloud business profits and cash recovery improve, doubts will naturally fade.
The answer isn't in sentiment but in the next quarter's earnings report.The Predict airdrop isn't very significant for those who farm tokens on-chain. I remember He Yi said back in 2023 that if you want to farm tokens, use Binance Wallet with one-on-one real-name verification to avoid fake farming.
This has indeed been proven now. Hard work farming tokens on-chain doesn't yield as much as participating in Binance Wallet's new token launches. The current airdrops no longer have a beneficial effect. After farming zk in 2024, I stopped farming tokens on-chain altogether.
Also, farmers can choose between two airdrop options: one is to take the airdrop immediately but only get 35% of the tokens; the other is to stake for one year and receive all the tokens. For this, I have no hesitation in taking the 35% and selling them right away.
Farming tokens is farming tokens, trading coins is trading coins—these are two different things. Because I didn't understand this, I didn't sell the STRK I farmed, which was worth 300,000 RMB, and even bought $10,000 more, only to see it drop over 90% in the end.
In most cases, the tokens farmed hit their highest price when they first list on exchanges, then steadily decline to zero. Predict won't be an exception, especially starting with a market cap of over $1 billion. Given the current state of altcoins in the crypto space, only a saint could hold the bag and keep them afloat.BTC smart money position core data analysis, take a look before placing orders to avoid many detours!!!
BTC current price 79800, decline -1.35%, current funding rate 0.0020%.
Smart money overview, a total of 2146 traders, nominal long-short ratio 28.99%.
Long smart money
868 traders, current position 838.06M USDT, average entry price 85567.31, unrealized P&L -60.5623M USDT, profit ratio only 13.01%. Long position cost is far above the current price, the vast majority of longs are underwater.
Short smart money
1278 traders, current position 2.89B USDT, average entry price 76926.90, unrealized P&L -104M USDT, profit ratio 70.42%. Although most shorts still hold profits, there are also considerable floating losses.
Market logic:
Price pullback is stuck in the middle range of long and short costs, smart money traders on both sides show book losses, a typical long-short double kill pattern, intense market game, short-term volatility probability is relatively high.
For market review reference only, does not constitute any trading advice #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 #霍尔木兹重开方案浮现，油价回落能否持续？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC The sense of ceremony can't save BNB, licenses can't save XRP, and the golden cross can't save DOGE
Three coins, three cards, all placed on cotton
$BNB rang the bell, burned coins, but still can't get past 750
Only up 0.64% in 24 hours. Nasdaq rang the bell and did quarterly burns, full spectacle, surged to 751 but was immediately pushed back to 734. The 751 to 755 range is a dense resistance zone on the 4-hour chart, buyers aren't following, the sense of ceremony is just a sense of ceremony
$XRP OCC license landed, but price can't hold above 1.33
Ripple got final approval from OCC national trust bank, BNY expanded custody cooperation, on the announcement day XRP rose 2.6% to $1.32. But a month later, price still hovers around 1.30, the license consolidates infrastructure status, it doesn't directly create XRP buying pressure
$DOGE golden cross arrived, but on-chain is empty
DOGE approaches the first daily golden cross in 14 months, holders look back to $0.10. But DogeOS executives revealed the awkward truth: market cap $12.3 billion, on-chain settled funds only $11 million, 100 times behind mainstream public chains. Technical signals are bullish, fundamentals are leaking
Summary: BNB to see if it can break through 751 to 755 with volume, XRP to see if it can reclaim the 1.32 to 1.33 moving average cluster, DOGE to see if after the golden cross $0.10 is bought up or blocked again
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 My summary of this market situation is: yesterday the shorts were liquidated, today the longs are liquidated, this round of washing out is really even 😅
The liquidation direction flipped really fast today. Yesterday the shorts couldn't hold and got taken out first, today it's the longs getting washed out: so far today, about 94.4 million contracts across seven exchanges have been liquidated, with longs accounting for 87% and shorts only 12.1 million.
By coin, ETH had the most liquidations, about 33.48 million; BTC about 26.9 million, with longs making up 95.6%. This drop clearly targeted those chasing longs just above the round number levels; SOL only had a bit over 3 million liquidated, leverage there is not heavy; ZEC about 2.2 million, volume is also small.
But I have to say, the total volume isn't actually large. This isn't a waterfall-style stampede, but a liquidation caused by a slow grind down. Interestingly, the largest single liquidation was actually a short on ETH of about 6.5 million. Even in the main story of longs being washed out, some shorts also bet wrong and got hit. Over two days, leverage on both sides has been cleared in turn. This kind of two-way clearing usually happens before major events land.
Tonight is data night, with GDP and PCE first, followed by Europe's decision. One advantage of cleaning out positions early is that when the data really gives direction, the market moves more decisively without having to first digest a bunch of leveraged positions.
My view is, short-term I won't bottom-fish nor chase shorts: longs have just been washed out, shorts are barely hurt, the initiative is still in the shorts' hands; wait for the data to land and see if positions get refilled. Only if refilling follows can it be considered truly stable. I don't recognize a price bounce first.The Federal Reserve did not cut interest rates; surprisingly, there were two votes in favor of a rate hike! What should FIL and DOGE watch out for?
On October 28, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.75%–4.00%, passing the decision with a 10 to 2 vote. The two dissenters did not call for a rate cut but advocated for a 25 basis point increase.
I believe this is the detail that altcoins need to be wary of. The statement noted that U.S. economic activity remains strong and employment is generally stable, but inflation is still elevated. "Maintaining the rate" should not be directly interpreted as "imminent easing," nor does it mean altcoins are about to take off.
Next, I will focus on three signals:
① Whether U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar continue to strengthen, affecting market risk appetite;
② Whether BTC can maintain its trend after the news settles, rather than just a brief spike;
③ Whether FIL and DOGE show sustained trading volume and capital support during their rise.
There is also a distinction that must be made clear: two votes supporting a rate hike do not mean the next meeting will definitely raise rates; an unchanged policy rate does not mean liquidity remains completely unchanged.
The Fed's schedule shows that the minutes of this meeting will be released on November 18, and the next rate meeting is scheduled for December 8–9. My strategy is to guess less about news and focus more on capital verification.
Do you think FIL and DOGE need a rate cut or new capital the most for their next rally?
#BTC #FIL #DOGE #FOMC
Not investment advice.Firedancer collects vulnerability reports, now requiring burning 1 SOL upfront, regardless of whether the report is useful or not, this 1 SOL is non-refundable. The rules were updated on October 26, triggered by an audit competition held this spring.
The competition ran from April 9 to May 9, with a prize pool of 1 million USD. 162 researchers submitted 809 reports, averaging 5 reports per person. Jump judged that almost every report involved AI. Only 127 independent findings were considered valid, about half of which were duplicates, and the audit backlog peaked at 299 reports. If this rule had been applied then, burning 809 SOL for 809 reports would have cost about 80,000 USD.
The competition did uncover serious issues, including a scheduling vulnerability that could alter the transaction execution order, causing consensus divergence among validator nodes. Someone at Jump wrote that AI makes finding vulnerabilities cheap, but verifying the correctness of a report remains expensive.
In the previous competition, each report cost 100 USD, and a person could submit only one report per day. Now it’s changed to burning tokens; at 100 USD per token, the threshold is basically unchanged, but token price fluctuations will affect the threshold accordingly. The highest reward for a serious vulnerability related to Alpenglow is 300,000 USD. Burned SOL is permanently removed from circulation, but even with many reports, it has basically no impact on the total supply. $SOL The outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting on October 28 was leaked in advance: a 90% probability of maintaining the 3.75%–4.00% rate unchanged, and the result was exactly as predicted. DOGE applauded along—bouncing from 0.078 to 0.080, then retracting to 0.0797 as the applause faded. My assessment: this is not a reaction, but a courtesy.
Whether holding steady counts as good news depends on whether there was a surprise. This meeting had no surprises and was actually a "hawkish enhanced version": the dissenting votes were from those who thought it wasn’t hawkish enough, the economic description was upgraded from "solid" to "strong," and the probability of a rate hike in December was 70-80%—translated into plain language, it’s not that there won’t be a hike, just that there won’t be one this time. A meeting whose script can be recited verbatim cannot provide the surprises needed for good news.
What’s more interesting is DOGE’s composure. After dropping nearly 90% from its peak, the chips scared off by the rate hike have long fled, leaving holders who watch Bitcoin’s mood, community enthusiasm, and ecosystem progress. No matter how loud the Fed’s voice is, it only registers as white noise in this dog’s ears—the marginal effect of macro narratives diminishes like this.
So the real information from this event is not what was said in Washington, but what $DOGE did not do. Going forward, what’s worth watching is whether inflation data will throw out lines beyond the script, and the activity on the dog’s own chain. ETF has seen inflows for two consecutive days, but the $11 billion options expiry tomorrow looms large, with the biggest pain point directly targeting $78,000. Slow money supporting the bottom struggles against fast-paced battles; the options gravity during the expiry week is the main driver.
$BTC 79,897.2. IBIT attracted $151 million in a single day, indicating demand is indeed recovering. However, with expiry imminent, about 70% of Gamma is concentrated between 75,000 and 82,000, with the biggest pain point at 78,000 acting like a magnet for price. ETF support and options battles make it difficult to find direction before the $80,000 level is settled.
$ETH 2,308.1. BlackRock saw an outflow of $93.3 million, while Fidelity launched staking, causing capital divergence. Although chips have been absorbed, the $776 million options expiry is approaching, with the biggest pain point far above 2,500, so the current price can only passively bear the pressure.
$SOL 99.79. ETF has lost funds for three consecutive days, and $100 has shifted from support to resistance. Due to its high beta nature, the expiry week is prone to triggering liquidations, making its short-term situation the most fragile.
Summary
ETF inflows act as a slow remedy, while options expiry is a fast blade. The 78,000 pain point is imminent, and the probability of a double-sided kill this week is greater than a trend start. Wait for the expiry to settle; the true direction will only be seen next week.
#ETF连续回流，BTC迎110亿美元期权交割 Seeing the Sony brand, my heart skipped a beat 😰. The more news there is about big companies entering the space, the more I fear mistaking "expectation" for "certainty." Spare money shouldn't be treated as money that won't lose.
Sony announced the launch of a global on-chain entertainment incubation program, supporting creators and startups to develop products and services based on Soneium, providing technical, marketing, and financing support. Previously, two rounds have supported 43 projects. The new program application period is from October to December 2026, with selection expected to continue until March 2027.
I think this is good news for developers, but it shouldn't be taken directly as a market signal. The supporting resources can help teams lower the entry barrier, but that doesn't mean the products will definitely have users; the selection process still takes time, and the actual implementation results need verification. If attention runs ahead of the products, I worry the gap in expectations will amplify volatility. I won't chase hype just because of a big company's name; I'll stick to my spare money budget and slowly see if the products can retain users.$ETH is shouted every day to have its Ether exchange rate drop to zero.
But ETH against BTC stubbornly held at 0.02915, a low point even higher than the 2019 cycle.
Bears recently simply can't break through this level, and whenever BTC consolidates a bit, the exchange rate pulls up.
When the square was cursing the loudest, the market had actually long stopped being able to push it down.
#ETH
$ETH
👇📉 In-depth Analysis of ZEC: Massive Capital Withdrawal, Is the Curse of Long Consolidation Leading to a Drop About to Come True?
At 2:30 PM, the ZEC market remains stagnant. But if you only look at the price, it's easy to be fooled by the main players' "boiling the frog slowly" tactic. Combining the just-updated latest on-chain data, beneath this stagnant surface, there are extremely turbulent undercurrents. Here's a breakdown of the latest market logic along with some operational suggestions.
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📊 1. Latest Data Hardcore Analysis
1. Macro Hawkish Bias: Although the FOMC did not raise rates last night, there was a "hawkish split" with 2 votes calling for a rate hike, significantly reducing market expectations for a rate cut in December. Risk assets are generally under pressure, and Bitcoin (BTC) is also shaky around 81,000.
2. ZEC Fundamentals Are "Conflicted": The Zcash spot ETF (ZCSH) still saw net inflows yesterday (over $2 million), with institutions buying on dips; however, the futures market faced heavy whale sell-offs, with some closing long positions and even opening $1.38 million in shorts. Long-term institutions are accumulating, while short-term speculators are dumping, so short-term moves should follow the direction of the speculators' sell-offs.
Long consolidation leads to a drop, with a 70% probability of a second bottom test.
Capital withdrawal plus breaking below the consolidation zone is a very typical "downtrend continuation." Once the US stock market opens tonight and Bitcoin falls below 80,000, ZEC is highly likely to test the morning low of 1230, possibly even dipping to around 1220.
Market data and technical analysis are for learning and reference only and do not constitute investment advice.【RWA Two Sides in One Day: Tokenized Government Bonds Surge One Day, Tokenized Money Market Funds Shrink the Next】
On October 28, Theo Network's thBill (tokenized government bond product) TVL rose by 21.1%; on October 29, Sygnum Bank's FIUSD liquidity fund (tokenized money market fund) TVL dropped by 16.4% to $15.3 million. These opposite movements perfectly cooled down the heated RWA narrative by half a degree.
The essence of tokenized funds is securities accounts packaged on-chain, backed by real subscriptions and redemptions. When institutions rebalance between cash management (money market funds) and yield assets (government bonds, notes), the numbers fluctuate in both directions—just like traditional money market funds experience large daily subscriptions and redemptions, but without daily on-chain leaderboards to observe. Interpreting single-day TVL as a "sector trend" is like mistaking a thermometer for the climate.
To judge the true state of RWA products, look at two slow variables: whether the underlying asset scale is continuously growing (how many government bonds or certificates of deposit the issuer actually bought, which determines the product's real size), and the number and structure of holders (allocation funds hold long-term, arbitrage funds move in and out with spreads). Both variables growing in the same direction indicates real sector expansion; if only TVL numbers move, it is mostly funds shifting between similar products.
Beyond short-term leaderboard noise, the structural trend of RWA remains worth tracking: Eurozone banks just admitted in an official survey that retail deposits are flowing into crypto assets, and tokenized money market funds are one product form that captures this demand. When funds enter or exit on a given day is noise; why funds move in or out is the signal.📊 $PUMP Chip Movement: Signs of Major Accumulation Worth Watching!
In the past two days, the $PUMP chip structure has changed, with large funds seemingly gradually positioning at low levels. Although the price has fallen about 36% from the 90-day high, there has been no obvious strong rally during the decline, indicating that market chips may still be redistributing.
If today's gains can hold steady, the subsequent pullback range is expected to narrow further. The short-term structure is temporarily bullish, but the so-called "major accumulation" still needs to be verified with trading volume, position changes, and capital flow.
Key observations: Whether the proportion of large funds can continue to increase, and whether the price can stabilize and rebound with volume support. Don't just focus on the decline; chip changes are equally important, but don't treat speculation as a certainty.
Additional info: According to reports, Pump.fun continues to advance the PUMP buyback and burn mechanism, but recent platform revenue and buyback scale have declined; meanwhile, news of whale purchases and large transfers into exchanges coexist, showing divergent capital movements.
Therefore, short-term cautious optimism is reasonable, but whether strength can be sustained depends on buyback intensity, trading volume, and overall SOL trend.The ETF funds have all returned, so why is $BTC falling instead of rising?
Although the trading volume has increased to $391 million, it's clearly just a turnover of funds, so the price can't go up and can only show a pattern of volume increase with price stagnation.
Moreover, the bulls' pain points are quite close; there are still two tall bars at 79,115 and 82,547, so the market will definitely have sharp spikes up and down to trigger liquidations and collect profits. 82,500 might be close to MA30 and hard to break through, but 79,000 is the lower boundary of the 30-day consolidation, so it's easier to touch.
This week, $XRP's performance is actually good. The spot ETF attracted 11.31 million against the trend, and Standard Chartered even said: XRP ETF could see nearly 5 billion in net inflows. XRP's advantage is regulatory certainty, making it a safe haven chosen by institutions.
Also, $UNI, relying on its leading position, has created a new play. In the cumulative trading volume of global tokenized stocks, $2 billion has already been routed through partners like Uniswap. Today it surged with volume, breaking above MA7 (7.029), and next is to adjust around MA20 (7.244)."General operating funds," these few words woke me up: Bitcoin in market groups is like the vast starry sea, but in the company's finance department, it has to face the soul-searching question of "can it be used to pay the utility bills." Ruihe Digital Intelligence sold 38.76 bitcoins, and the proceeds are intended for general operations. 😂
My judgment: this looks more like a corporate cash management message, and interpreting it directly as bearish on $BTC lacks sufficient evidence. Operations need cash, but holding coins means bearing price volatility; the two have different use cases. The announcement gave the purpose but did not disclose what proportion of holdings this sale represents, so you can't automatically translate "sold some" into "full retreat." I'm more concerned about how the company balances holding coins and daily cash needs rather than adding bullish or bearish commentary to a single sale.
Where do you stand: is this a normal fund allocation, or a signal of weakened willingness to hold coins? Does the finance department this time count as opening a utility bill for "faith"?More than the "AI discovering vulnerabilities," I am more concerned that the affected nodes are Bitcoin nodes on Windows and Mac: the decentralized foundation still relies on individual computers to support it. My judgment is that this news has more practical significance for node operators than for the narrative around the coin price.
According to CoinDesk, language models scanning found three vulnerabilities that can cause node crashes on these two types of systems, which have been disclosed according to Core's new rules for easily discoverable vulnerabilities. I would not directly translate "node crash" as "$BTC is insecure": interruption of operation, asset theft, and total network failure are issues of different levels, and the material does not provide evidence for the latter two.
But it should not be dismissed as a minor issue just because coin loss is not mentioned. Nodes undertake validation work, and availability is inherently part of security. My speculation is that if the vulnerabilities are easily triggered, the related operators may bear more costs for troubleshooting and maintenance; decentralization is not just a slogan, it also has daily maintenance bills.
When I see this kind of news, I fear being misled by eye-catching headlines. Next, I will focus on the scope of impact, triggering conditions, and repair information, and will not interpret "already disclosed" as "already resolved" on my own.Bitcoin is slightly weak in the short term, and rebounds are more easily sold off, so don't rush to mistake a pullback for a reversal. Ethereum is just consolidating in the short term; there is buying support, but the price hasn't stabilized, so it's not advisable to chase the rally. If you find this analysis helpful, remember to follow and like; your support is my greatest motivation to keep updating. Bitcoin's low in the past 12 hours was 79,709.50, and the high was 81,797.50. The most striking thing about BTC is that despite strong bullish sentiment, trading volume is skewed towards selling, and the price has slipped to the lower edge of the recent range. Public bullishness hasn't translated into buying pressure; selling actions like reducing longs, switching from long to short, and adding shorts outweigh buying. Does a large number of bulls mean a bottom? No, the price has already voted with a pullback. Sticking to the lower edge, if the rebound can't reach the middle of the range, it is still likely to be sold; to truly stop the decline, we need to see sellers withdraw and buyers step in. If sellers continue to press, the rebound will only give them better positions. No matter how loud the bullish voices are, they can't be mistaken for buying pressure. Ethereum's low in the past 12 hours was 2,293.93, and the high was 2,391.94. ETH lacks comparable public opinions; buying volume exceeds selling, which is the opposite of BTC's selling pressure. There are buyers willing to step in below, but the price has fallen back from the upper edge of the range and is now near the lower edge; buying hasn't lifted the price yet. Does having buyers mean stability? Not yet, the price hasn't held; buyers just haven't retreated. Next, watch if it can hold the lower edge and return to the middle of the range; if it just moves sideways without rising, it's consolidation and repair, not a reversal. If the lower edge is broken, the support needs to be reassessed. Watch whether BTC sellers can withdraw and whether ETH can hold the lower edge; if sellers don't retreat and the lower..."Bad news doesn't cause a drop; the shorts get 'worn down' first" (￣▽￣)
The Fed didn't move this time, but the shorts acted like they heard the starting gun and rushed to add shorts. After 24 hours, liquidations reached $259 million: $156 million in shorts, $103 million in longs; BTC shorts liquidated $43.33 million, ETH shorts liquidated $33.6 million. Yet BTC only rose 0.5%, ETH touched 2350 without a violent surge, and the shorts were slowly worn down by the volatility (╯﹏╰).
The most painful logic is: all the bad news is out, but it doesn't fall; the Fed leans hawkish, but it doesn't crash; high-leverage shorts wait for a crash, but what comes is their margin being eaten away bit by bit. The probability of a rate hike in December is 82.6%, the macro outlook looks bearish, but short-term shorts are being pressed and rubbed down (¬_¬). This market cures the "I think it should fall" mindset.
Are you still holding shorts? Are you going to tough it out, or get worn down by this slow knife market? Share your thoughts in the comments.
The above is compiled from on-chain data and does not constitute trading advice.
$BTC $ETH
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 I saw $NEAR on the gainers list this morning, up just 0.4% in 24 hours, hardly enough to call it a spike—now it's back on the losers list, down 4.49%, dropping 4 points.
Tossing and turning all day, pure capital flipping back and forth.
If you talk about a real story for NEAR, it's not nonexistent—an established public chain project, with some AI narrative touched on, but this wave has nothing to do with that, it's just the rankings switching sides. Down 10 points on the seven-day chart, with volume about the same as usual, 0.9 times, no one is really dumping, and no one is really buying.
A reminder: it has more than doubled from the bottom in the past six months, still halfway up the mountain. Don’t get itchy just because it "rose many times," the halfway point is the most unstable when it falls. $NEAR $CORE is a 'public chain' with a TVL of 3.82 million and a daily transaction volume of 900 USD, ranked in the top 200 by market capitalization.
A set of data with a strong sense of disconnection is presented: the circulating market cap still firmly ranks within the top 200 cryptocurrencies, but the native DeFi locked assets on the Core chain have shrunk to 3.82 million USD, and the on-chain DEX daily transaction volume is only 900 USD. This huge contrast is the most realistic portrait of CORE today. Many people confuse two layers of data: the BTC staking assets supporting the market cap narrative, and the Core chain's DeFi funds, which are completely separate systems. The BTC used to support the BTCFi story is locked in the Bitcoin mainnet through CLTV time locks to participate in consensus staking; these assets have not entered Core chain DeFi contracts. The 3.82 million TVL and 900 USD daily transaction volume represent the true activity level of the Core chain's internal DeFi ecosystem. This data exposes the core contradiction: the token still maintains a decent market cap ranking, but the on-chain application layer funds have almost completely fled, causing huge slippage and liquidity exhaustion. Ordinary users are unwilling to conduct trading or lending activities on the Core chain, on-chain fee income is nearly depleted, and the foundation's envisioned value flywheel of fee buybacks for the token is difficult to realize❌. However, it cannot be directly concluded that the project is completely worthless: the BTC staking narrative at the Satoshi Plus consensus layer still exists, and institutional BTC yield products are still advancing. Relying solely on consensus layer staking data to support market cap while the on-chain DeFi ecosystem is in shock is itself a very high-risk signal. This is compounded by the continuous withdrawal of independent validators.Capital inflow ≠ reversal, first look at structural differentiation
Today's capital inflow is worth noting but not enough to confirm a reversal. Short-term warming runs parallel with mid-term deleveraging; the market seems more like it's repairing rather than fully turning around.
🔸$BTC currently has the most stable structure. Both spot and futures show synchronized net inflows: $63.39 million spot inflow and $9.02 million futures inflow over 4 hours, reaching $229 million and $139 million respectively over 24 hours. However, over 30 days, spot still has a net outflow of $724 million and futures a net outflow of $6.63 billion, indicating short-term capital return but mid-term leverage clearing is not yet complete.
🔸$ETH clearly relies on leverage replenishment. Spot shows a slight outflow of $1.52 million over 4 hours, while futures have an inflow of $39.74 million; over 24 hours, futures inflow is $228 million, stronger than spot's $32.01 million. This structure has high short-term elasticity but also the highest leverage dependence, so if replenishment slows, volatility risk will increase.
🔸$SOL shows a different strength and weakness: spot is supported while futures are still withdrawing. Over 24 hours, spot net inflow is $39.02 million, futures net outflow is $27.9 million; over 30 days, futures have a cumulative net outflow of $1.83 billion. Some are taking positions, but leverage funds have not yet returned.
Overall, BTC has the best structure, SOL has spot support, ETH has the strongest short-term elasticity but the highest leverage risk. Capital inflow is only the first step; reversal requires mid-term outflow contraction to confirm.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $ZEC was right to be bullish yesterday, the mistake was chasing the highs! Today, holding steady at 1240 actually makes it more stable.
Yesterday, ZEC strongly broke through 1300 driven by Grayscale ETF fund inflows and macroeconomic positives, reaching up to 1332. However, due to selling pressure from trapped positions above 1368 and internal disputes among project leaders causing uncertainty, the main force followed the trend to dump and wash out positions, pulling back to around 1248. This sharp drop is essentially a technical correction after the positive news was priced in, aimed at clearing out floating chips.
Currently, only 29% of positions are profitable, meaning 70% of chips are trapped, with an average cost near 1274. Below 1240 is a dense support zone of profitable chips and the last defense line for bulls. As long as 1240 can hold effectively today, it indicates strong support below, signaling the washout is nearing its end and bullish rebound bets can continue. The first short-term target is 1280, and the second target is the 1300 round number.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $ZEC vs $SOL
Shorts are sitting comfortably on both, but I'm seeing two different setups.
SOL still looks weak. Sellers have the upper hand, and I don't see much reason to fight them yet.
ZEC is more interesting. Buyers are starting to show up while shorts remain heavily positioned. If that buying continues, we could get a decent squeeze.
I'd rather watch ZEC for a bounce than try catching the bottom on SOL.A guy on Bitcointalk drew this in Excel in 2013 when bitcoin was $25. He never touched it again. It’s still 100% right ,let's see what it predicts... On the 13th Feb 2013 a user called dacoinminster dumps whatever price history he can find into a spreadsheet, lets Excel fit a power trendline, and writes it down: Price = 4.42 × 10⁻¹⁷ × (days since Jan 3, 2009)^5.6 He wasn’t building a theory of money. He was arguing 2011 had been the bubble and 2013 wasn’t. The line said about $27 that week. Pric#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Brothers, the liquidation data chart is here!!
From last night to this morning's market, honestly, it was a liquidation of shorts followed by longs
$BTC in the early morning first exploded the shorts, at 4:57 AM in that hour shorts liquidated 50.57 million, BTC touched 81442, looked like it was going to break through, many chased in, but it turned out to be a fake breakout, everyone got trapped!!
Then in the morning, two sharp hits at 9 and 10 o'clock, a smooth drop, longs liquidated 148 million, price directly smashed down to 79887, the group chat was full of curses……
I added up the hourly data, from midnight to noon total liquidations reached 274 million, longs accounted for nearly 70%. BTC open interest also shrank from 47 billion to 46.4 billion, funding rates dropped, positions clearly lighter.
The current situation is shorts taking profits, longs liquidating, and it's time for a new round of game theory #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 #微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 $ETH $ZEC Simply not raising interest rates can only bring a small increase because the market will not pay for what has already happened. It only pays for what is going to happen, so last night the main focus was on the Fed's speech tone.
This recent drop was clearly aimed at triggering the short positions at 79919; after triggering, the price bounced back.
Actually, BTC's trading volume also gave a signal: yesterday the volume rose 50% to $391 million, but the price only increased by 0.44%. It was just a turnover with no new capital inflow.
$ETH is dreadful. It broke below MA7 (2345), moving further away from MA20 (2417), MA30 (2490), and MA60 (2521), but getting closer to the 30-day bottom price of 2282.
@八佰哥爱理财 Still optimistic for the long term. The low position is an opportunity to enter. Slowly build your position and wait for the opportunity.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $BTC now, for me, is no longer about whether BTC can hold the so-called 78000 level. What I am focusing on now is whether the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates tomorrow. We all know that in recent years there has been a pattern called the yen carry trade, where some capital borrows yen from Japan at almost no interest, then converts it to dollars to buy US stocks and crypto assets. But if the yen interest rate rises, these capital holders will need to sell their US stocks and crypto to buy yen in Japan to repay their debts. So, the key focus next is whether the Bank of Japan will raise rates tomorrow. If they do, it will be a devastating blow to the entire capital market. Judging by today's drop, it seems some people already knew the result in advance. Therefore, at such a critical moment, we should try to stay out of positions and wait.