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Samsung just made history, but not everywhere. 🎯
Q3 operating profit hit KRW 107.4T on AI memory demand. Net profit missed forecasts, and Device eXperience slipped into a KRW 0.8T loss.
Multi-year contracts and KRW 29T in capex show a huge bet on AI.
Will it still pay off in 2027? Share your take 👇
#SamsungQ3RecordProfit #微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 Money is still being burned, but it's being spent with a plan. This quarter, capital expenditures plus finance leases reached $45.2 billion, 30% more year-over-year, yet less than the expected $50.7 billion. CFO Hood said this was due to delays in third-party computing power delivery. Free cash flow was $18.63 billion, down 27%, but still positive, whereas Google's was negative over $9 billion this quarter.
Hood also stated that cash flow will be positive for the entire fiscal year 2027. Currently, about 75% of the money is spent on short-lived assets like chips and graphics cards, up from only half a year ago. They first buy computing power that can be immediately monetized, and postpone building infrastructure. The cost is that total spending in 2027 will reach $170 billion.BTC tug-of-war near 80,000: overhead selling pressure from unlocking positions, support battle below
$BTC
BTC continues to fluctuate around $80,000, with the chip structure revealing long and short logic.
Glassnode's holding cost heatmap shows that long-term holders with positions over 155 days hold about 4 million BTC concentrated at costs between $85,000 and $118,000. When the market rebounds near $85,000, there will be a willingness to unlock and realize profits, creating selling pressure above. But note, concentrated costs ≠ concentrated dumping, and on-chain transfers do not equate to real secondary market transactions.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
Short-term holders' chip concentration zones are at $77,000 and $64,000. The spot order book also shows clear differences: there are about $42 million in support orders in the $78,000–$79,000 range, but only $3.4 million in buy orders at the $80,000 level.
This is the root of the early bull market's repeated fluctuations: upward moves must digest unlocking sell pressure, downward moves test buy-side support.
I maintain the view that BTC is in the early stage of a bull market. However, the core driver of the next major rise is not unlocking sentiment but continuous new capital inflows. Some want to exit at highs, others wait to build positions at lows; the early bull phase is a stage of chip exchange.Only assets not recognized by banks get passed on to the chain 📦
LME wants to tokenize metals with "unissued warehouse receipts." Legitimate warehouse receipts have long been used to secure low-interest loans from traditional banks. This batch of physical goods, which can't be loaned against while stored in warehouses, is trying to use the name of RWA to find on-chain funds as a temporary financial boost 🧐
If bad debts really occur, smart contracts can't go into warehouses to move copper blocks. Tokens can be issued in minutes, but who will guarantee offline confirmation and disposal?
$BTC
$ETH Today (October 29), the Hong Kong stock market overall showed characteristics of index adjustment and sharp structural divergence. The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.59% at 22,958 points, falling below the 23,000 mark; the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped significantly by 2.84%. Funds generally shifted from highly volatile tech growth stocks to high-dividend value stocks with defensive attributes.
Today's capital in the Hong Kong stock market mainly focused on the following directions:
· AI Hardware and Semiconductors: Rallied in the morning session but funds cashed out by close: Driven by better-than-expected earnings from South Korea's leading memory companies and AI giants pushing for US stock listings, the chip and AI hardware sectors rose broadly in the morning. Huahong Hongli surged over 9% at one point, while SMIC, Lenovo Group, Zhipu, and MiniMax also attracted capital. However, in the afternoon, due to lower-than-expected capital expenditure expansion by overseas tech giants and the rebalancing pressure from the Hong Kong stock index futures settlement day, AI hardware stocks faced heavy selling pressure. Robotech closed down 18.97%, Jingwang Electronics fell 13.02%, Guanghe Technology dropped 12.93%, and Huahong Hongli and Lenovo Group turned from gains to losses, with the Hang Seng Tech Index's decline widening near the close.
· High Dividend and Energy: Continued safe-haven destination for funds: As tech stocks retreated, funds clearly flowed into sectors with high cash flow and dividend certainty such as oil, coal, and domestic banks. Supported by sustained high international oil prices and expectations for winter energy reserves, PetroChina saw net inflows in the morning and closed up over 3%. CNOOC and coal stocks stabilized against the trend. Banking stocks also received support from defensive funds, with ICBC closing up 2.30% and China Construction Bank up 2.12%.
· Chinese Financial Stocks: Post-earnings certainty attracted funds to cluster: The financial sector was the core force supporting the Hang Seng Index today. Ping An Insurance showed strong performance after earnings release, closing up 2.56%; China Life also recorded a 2.45% gain, with funds favoring low-valuation blue chips with realized earnings on the futures settlement day.
· Extreme Individual Stock Speculation and IPO Underperformance: Theme stocks saw intense speculation. Brain Dynamics Aurora surged nearly 22% in the morning but then plunged sharply, closing down over 16%. New IPO Dongshan Precision had a weak debut, falling over 6% intraday and closing down 0.7% at HKD 86.15.
Overall, today's Hong Kong stock trading was relatively restrained. At the intersection of futures settlement and external policy uncertainties, funds prioritized reducing holdings risk in the tech sector, shifting to heavy positions in Chinese financials and energy high-dividend defensive stocks. Market sentiment was generally defensive.The interest rate remains at 3.75% to 4.00%, with a vote of 10 to 2; members Cook and Harker advocate for an additional 25 basis points. $BTC $ETH $SNDK The key change is in the wording: the economic assessment was upgraded from "solid" to "strong," while inflation remains high. Translated, this means the economy is overheating, inflation can't be suppressed, and don't expect rate cuts in the short term. Don't be fooled by the phrase "no rate hike." For high-beta assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, what matters is not whether rates move, but whether the dollar is strong, US Treasury yields are high, and whether capital dares to enter the market and take risks. If inflation continues to hold up and doesn't fall, the market will price in higher rates for longer, even betting on further hikes in December. Only if the economy truly cools down will the market have a chance to breathe. Currently, the negative factors are greater. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 #微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 The results are in, and each of the four coins has its own agenda
$BTC 80,647, staying put as expected 📊 At 2 AM, the Federal Reserve kept rates steady at 3.75%-4%, with 10 votes in favor and 2 against. Waller downplayed forward guidance, leaving the December rate hike uncertain. At the 80,647 level, the market waited a week just for this moment, but there were no surprises and the price didn’t move. Support below 80,000 remains.
$ENA Interest-bearing coin is waiting for high rates 🌾 Ethena’s USDe collateralized short-term U.S. Treasury interest-bearing, with yields linked to U.S. dollar rates. With the FOMC holding steady, the duration of high rates extends, increasing the appeal of interest-bearing stablecoins. At 0.198, the 8% gain from two days ago was fully given back; now it’s waiting for the next direction.
$ASTER Multi-chain contract DEX is still idle 🛰️ Aster has deployed perpetual contracts across several chains, at 0.705, with only a few hundred thousand USD in volume. The FOMC result is out, but funds are cautious; new chains without catalysts are being ignored.
$HYPE Hyperliquid is waiting for quarterly dividends 📊 Holding HYPE earns on-chain fee shares, and quarterly dividends are underway. At 80.2, it bounced slightly from lows, but contract positions didn’t follow, indicating dividend expectations rather than new capital inflows. Risk appetite remains unchanged after the FOMC.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice$UNI, can the rebound in DEX trading volume translate into token value capture? Macro risk aversion may suppress speculative trading, but high volume could also stem from short-term volatility, not necessarily stable user demand. For governance tokens, protocol fees, retention, and value recirculation are more critical than nominal trading volume. If multi-chain volume expands and fees are sustainable, I would raise my confidence; if activity is concentrated in short-term speculation without changes in governance value, trading heat alone is insufficient to support valuation.ETF just bought 176 million, but BTC dropped below 80,000 - it's not that institutions stopped buying, but because the hawkish Fed has restrained buying power. $BTC: 80,049 USD. Net inflow from spot ETFs on the 28th reached 176 million USD, with BlackRock IBIT accounting for 151 million USD. However, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, two members voted to support a rate hike, the probability of a rate hike in December remains at 78.4%, the 10-year Treasury yield once exceeded 5%, and risk assets are under pressure. The 80,000 mark is continuously tested #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
For BTC and ETH, the pause in rate hikes has already been priced in, data is on the hot side, and U.S. Treasuries and the dollar are strengthening again.
Currently, BTC may test $80,000 again, ETH's decline could be larger, and only if PCE cools down and the dollar and Treasury yields fall together will the rebound have sustainability.
Moreover, the U.S. will release the preliminary Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation data, which are the key to the next round of volatility and will affect whether Bitcoin has the strength to surge upward.
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 #微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
The Federal Reserve's October interest rate decision is out, maintaining rates unchanged as expected by the market.
When the market's betting probability exceeds 90%, it basically aligns with market forecasts.
Currently, the market mostly expects a rate hike in December. More importantly, it can be observed that in the October Fed rate decision, Walsh changed his 2027 voting count to 7 times with one instance as a policy discussion, and no longer relies on "forward guidance."
It is more likely that "real-time data" will be used, so the market may be more "sensitive" to data than before.
But relatively more important is that $BTC and $ETH remain at 80000 and 2300 respectively, with a relatively weak rebound.
What should be more concerning next is whether the Middle East situation will escalate further. After the midterm elections, an escalation could lead to rising crude oil prices, and risk assets like ETH will come under pressure 🤔
Be aware of the risks! Is the biggest buy order for HYPE coming from itself?
Hyperliquid has cumulatively repurchased and burned 49.87 million HYPE tokens, accounting for 4.99% of the maximum supply, valued at approximately $3.89 billion at the current price. In the past 24 hours alone, it burned another 19,700 tokens, worth about $1.59 million. Its protocol revenue over the past month ranks first among all protocols, about $63.94 million, with income continuously turning into buy orders.
But today there was also selling on-chain: a whale unlocked 387,000 HYPE tokens from staking, transferring them to Coinbase in three transactions totaling about $31.93 million; another whale bought about $10 million from Wintermute. Kraken's parent company Payward also plans to launch a regulated US perpetual product on Hyperliquid, pending approval. Both bulls and bears are increasing their stakes.
The contrast between hot and cold is obvious: the spot HYPE ETF has had no net inflows since October 6, and two days ago saw an outflow of $4.3 million. The protocol is aggressively repurchasing on-chain, but institutional funds remain cautious off-chain.
My judgment: HYPE's price depends half on revenue and burning, and half on expectations for ETFs and compliant products. Burning is a slow variable; selling pressure is a fast variable. The $31.93 million selling pressure doesn't shake the nearly 5% cumulative burn, but in the short term, watch if HYPE can reclaim $81.
$HYPE #HyperliquidThis quarter's earnings report "slightly exceeding expectations" is the baseline scenario, but the market won't just buy in because of a beat; what truly determines the rise or fall is whether the "price increase cycle can continue to be passed down and whether next quarter's guidance is strong enough.
The current stock price is around $1400 (closing at 1404.77 on 10/28), implying very high expectations and a low margin for error. Tonight's 8:30 PCE may determine how BTC will move over the next month or so. I've written the complete roadmap in a long article; here I'll just share the key points.
The Fed did not raise rates last night, but the vote was 10 to 2, with two members calling for a hike. The probability of a rate hike in December has risen from 36% to 78% in the past month. The PPI year-on-year has already reached 6.35%, and the expected PCE tonight is 3.6%. I believe there's a 60-70% chance it will be on the hot side.
If it's hot, my timeline is as follows: BTC will first return to around 78,000, with one last rally before the election, but it will be difficult to break above 83,000. The real drop will come after the November 3 election, initially targeting 67,000 to 70,000. November 16 to 20 is Anthropic's IPO week; BTC bottomed around the time of SpaceX's IPO this year, so this week is the first low point window.
If it's cold, with two consecutive weekly closes above 83,000, this scenario is invalidated, and the target shifts to 87,300 and 90,000.
I will watch three signals: tonight's PCE, the weekly close on November 2, and whether the 10-year US Treasury yield will surge to 5.3%.
The timing, price points, and conditions for each step are all detailed in today's long article. Friends who want to prepare in advance can take a look.
This is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. The London Metal Exchange is doing something no one has done before: turning the metals sitting in warehouses into on-chain collateral assets.
The approach is not tokenizing warehouse receipts, but tokenizing non-warehouse receipt metal inventories for corporate collateral financing, with an industry roundtable planned for early November. It aims to leverage Hong Kong's position—Hong Kong is a recognized delivery point in LME's global warehousing network, so the goods are here, and the on-chain certificates have physical backing. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong Exchange is also testing tokenized carbon credit settlements.
The key is not the technology, but the quality of the collateral. Previously, only coins could be used as on-chain collateral, which can fluctuate by double digits daily, making traditional banks reluctant to accept them. Metal inventories are different—they have spot prices, warehouses, and delivery rules, all recognized by banks for decades. Once this works, it will be the first time on-chain collateral is something traditional finance understands, forcing a recalculation of financing costs and cross-border flows.
This is the most direct incremental benefit for settlement layers like $ETH: more collateral means more on-chain capital demand. For oracles, it means a surge in price feed demand; for RWA, it signals an extension from government bonds to industrial goods.
Risks must also be clarified: this is still early exploration. Whether the November roundtable will produce results, how regulators will recognize the property rights corresponding to tokens, and who between warehouses and traders bears redemption responsibility—all remain unanswered. Tokenization does not equal liquidity; metals won’t necessarily become easier to sell just because they are on-chain.
But the direction is clear—it’s not just the crypto community playing around; exchanges are pushing real-world inventories onto the chain.Tonight at 20:30, Data Analyst Yue's subjective speculation
Tonight's data is highly likely to be lower than expected (i.e., very few unemployment claims, strong employment), expected to fall within the range of 188,000 to 191,000. The reason is that the actual layoff rate in US companies is extremely low, and labor demand remains stubborn, so the data may continue to decline.
If this speculation comes true, it will be a short-term negative for the crypto market. Overheated employment will dispel rate cut fantasies, and if combined with a hawkish signal from the FOMC at midnight, BTC is very likely to break below the 80,000 integer support level, triggering a cascade of long liquidations.
Absolutely do not bet on the data direction; this is merely a logical speculation, not a certainty. If there is a sharp drop after the data release, do not blindly catch the falling knife to buy the dip; if there is a false rally due to sentiment, it is actually a good opportunity to reduce positions and hedge. Wait for the information to settle before taking action; the more chaotic the market, the more you need to control your position size $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 In the early bull market phase, after BTC stands above the STH-RP and before reaching the stage high point in this cycle: the 2019 round almost did not see a pullback to the STH-MVRV mean line, 2023 only had one pullback, while this round has already completed two pullbacks.
Compared to the previous two rounds, the upward momentum in this bull market's initial phase is clearly weaker. It is worth considering: as the upward strength slows, will the subsequent correction depth also converge?
Still maintaining the previous core judgments:
1. The underlying structure in the early bull market has not changed. Whether from the on-chain indicator dimension or the K-line pattern on the chart, the current market positioning still belongs to the early bull phase.
2. The current 365D SMA is about 77.4K. Reviewing history, after bear markets turn to bull markets, except for the extreme black swan event caused by the 2020 pandemic, prices rarely sustain effective drops below this moving average during the early bull phase.
3. The STH-RP value is about 75.7K. To put it another way, even if the market weakens extremely and prices fall back to the 77.4K–75.7K range, this is more of a rare opportunity to position rather than a reason to panic. Personally, I judge the probability of touching this range as not high.
4. Today, the 128DMA just crossed above the 200DMA forming a golden cross. The key focus going forward is whether this golden cross pattern can be maintained. $BTC $ETH #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 Xinhua Finance
Also announced an underestimated reform: in 2027, there will be one meeting without an interest rate vote or policy statement, increasing to two meetings in 2028. The regular adjustable interest rate meeting window is reduced from 8 to 6 times.
Bitcoin's reaction is restrained: $81,172, up 0.46%, weekly still -3.72%. US 10-year Treasury yield at 5.0175%, US Dollar Index at 102.12, gold slightly pulled back.
So this is not "all bad news priced in," but a standard hawkish pause: no rate hike, but all rate hike options remain, and the number of times they must make a statement is reduced.
The real test is in four hours—tonight at 20:30, the US Q3 GDP preliminary and September PCE will be released simultaneously. September CPI has hit a five-month high, PPI a four-year high; if PCE is also hot, the December rate hike pricing will immediately shift from "possible" to "highly likely."
Key levels: resistance at 81,911–82,000 moving average wall, support at 80,000 and 79,500.
Discussion: reducing the number of rate meetings from 8 to 6—is it improving efficiency or reducing transparency?
I lean toward the latter. Reducing the number of "must answer" occasions means fewer windows for the market to force a stance—freedom for policymakers, less information for price setters. Volatility won't disappear, it will just concentrate more intensely into the remaining meetings.
Poll: For tonight's 20:30 PCE, what do you think—A. Hot, confirming December rate hike; B. Moderate, BTC surges to 82,000; C. As expected, continues sideways; D. Data doesn't matter, market no longer cares.
I choose A. Two dissenting votes already hint at internal direction; as long as data isn't cool, hawks have reason.
Not investment advice, risk on you. #MarketAnalysis $BTCMore likely to exceed expectations (relative to Wall Street consensus, especially revenue / Non-GAAP EPS)
This quarter corresponds to Sandisk (Nasdaq: **SNDK**) **FY2027 Q1** (approximately calendar July–September 2026), which has **not yet been released** as of now; expected after the US market close on **10/29**, with the conference call around **16:30 ET / Beijing 10/30 04:30**.
The company guidance is roughly revenue of **$10.3–10.8 billion**, Non-GAAP EPS of **$44–46**; street consensus is already close to or slightly above the upper end of the guidance. On the bullish side is the NAND/enterprise price increase cycle and the recent quarters' history of beating guidance; on the constraining side, "meeting guidance" may not easily surpass Street expectations, and the market will also focus on whether next quarter's guidance is strong enough.$BTC ETF inflows reached $424 million in three days, with net inflows in October returning to $111 million, but the market is not buying it, and the price still dropped 1.60% in 24 hours.
I'm watching the $79,775 level: it has been tested 6 times, held 5 times, broken 0 times, and once had no reaction. The price is falling while open interest rises by 2.2%, indicating shorts are adding positions; a break below $79,775 would increase downside risk.
The Fed rate decision and US PCE inflation data often cause market volatility around their release, so I only take this level as a reference and won't bet heavily.
Do you think $79,775 can still hold? #Председатель Федеральной резервной системы Уош заявил, что политика не повлияла на решение по ставкам Microsoft's performance exceeded expectations, but I'm more focused on SanDisk!
Microsoft's quarterly revenue was about $92.28 billion, with Azure cloud business growing 48% year-over-year, and next quarter's growth guidance reaching 49%–50%. This indicates that demand for AI and cloud computing remains strong.
Why is this good news for SanDisk?
AI data center expansion relies heavily on storage. If NAND demand and prices continue to improve, SanDisk stands to benefit.
But don't rush to chase the rally! **Good Microsoft results don't necessarily mean SanDisk will rise.** Tonight, the focus is on SanDisk's own revenue, gross margin, and next quarter's guidance.
If both results and guidance exceed expectations, the storage sector may continue to attract capital; if the good news has already been priced in, be cautious of a pullback after a spike.
My view: AI storage is worth watching, but ultimately, what determines the stock price is whether the performance can surpass market expectations and whether capital truly supports it.
#微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 How to build a "risk-resistant asset supported by interest" with 50,000 yuan?
It is widely said online that the "CMB dividend supports critical illness insurance" idea is good, but there are practical shortcomings.
Original plan: Invest 50,000 yuan in CMB, use dividends to buy 100,000 yuan critical illness insurance.
Problem: Single stock risk concentration, 100,000 coverage cannot fully protect against major illness.
💡 Reconstruction:
1️⃣ Switch to index
Buy 50,000 yuan of CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF, traded on the market,
commission 0.05% with a minimum of 5 yuan per transaction.
Current index dividend yield is about 4.6%, not 5%.
2️⃣ First recognize a pitfall
Most dividend ETFs do not distribute dividends.
The largest one, 512890,
has never paid a cash dividend historically.
To get cash, you must choose varieties that pay quarterly/annual dividends,
or sell about 4.5% of shares annually yourself.
3️⃣ How to allocate protection
2,300 yuan for one million medical insurance + term critical illness insurance.
One million medical insurance is reimbursement-based, actual reimbursement, with 10,000 yuan deductible;
critical illness insurance is payout-based, pays upon diagnosis.
At age 30, you can get one million medical insurance + 300,000 to 400,000 critical illness coverage,
not "one million critical illness".
4️⃣ Building position rhythm
50% base position + staggered over 3 to 5 months, this step is fine.
A truth: Dividend low volatility does not mean no decline.
In 2015, drawdown was -43.8%, in 2018, -30.5%.
When a 50,000 yuan investment is floating a 20,000 yuan loss, only if you are still willing to use dividends to buy insurance,
then this plan passes.
What do you think about the combination of dividend low volatility + consumer insurance?👇
#Finance #DividendLowVolatility #AssetAllocation #PassiveIncomeAt this stage, I would define it as quietly accumulating during a hesitation period—not chasing the rally, nor panic selling. Guess what the quietest type of buyers have been doing recently? When I was reviewing on-chain data yesterday, I was a bit struck: over at BitMine, Tom Lee's team quietly added 10,452 ETH last week, bringing their holdings to 6,051,933 ETH as of October 25. Valued at $2,356 each, the ETH alone is worth about $14.3 billion, and combined with other assets, the total is close to $15 billion. This scale is not the work of short-term traders; it looks more like exchanging time for space. But the interesting part is not the numbers themselves, but the split in market sentiment. ETH is currently being pulled by two forces: on one side, a small FOMO flame wondering "Has it already reversed?" and on the other, hesitation saying "The macro environment hasn't settled yet, let's wait a bit longer." Large addresses keep buying during the downtrend, essentially voting for the bottom area, but this voting is slow and quiet, and won't immediately show on the candlestick charts. So, in the short term, the price is very likely to continue oscillating rather than surging all at once. My own understanding is that capital preference is quietly shifting toward "certainty chips"—willing to make medium- to long-term layouts on mainstream assets like ETH, rather than chasing altcoins whose narratives have already grown tired. This indirectly supports BTC, reinforces the bottom for ETH, but for high-beta small coins, it actually means a withdrawal: when smart money chooses to holdThe FOMC results early this morning have settled. It looks like no rate hike, but there are hawkish signals hidden inside, which isn't good news for our crypto circle.
The interest rate remains unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%, with a 10 to 2 vote; two members advocated for another 25 basis points hike.
Another key point is that they changed the economic assessment from solid to strong, while also saying inflation is still high.
In plain terms, the economy is very hot, inflation can't be suppressed, so don't expect a rate cut anytime soon.
Don't think that no rate hike means easing. For coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum, it's not just about interest rates, but also about the dollar, US Treasury yields, and whether funds dare to take risks.
If inflation remains stubbornly high, the market will start to expect high rates to last a long time, even betting on a rate hike in December; only if the economy cools down will the market have a chance to ease, and right now the probability of bad news is higher.
The decline isn't over yet. Chen Cheng has been signaling short positions all along: Bitcoin at 79,000, Ethereum at 2,280, and has said many times if those levels don't hold. So far, the view remains the same.
Any rebound later is our opportunity to short.
Brothers, are you ready?
$BTC $ETH This market looks a lot like summer 2023.
In 2023, $BTC first big move off the bottom ran into a meme and altcoin frenzy. Volatility then sank. This year has followed the same order, with volatility now at the lows.
More on these parallels in this week's Week On-chain.Thursday, October 29, 2026, Q4, Issue 111
Aspirin Data Scientist's Perspective on Cycle Analysis
The September PCE, to be released tonight at 8:30, is a critical turning point for the market over the next month or so. My judgment is that the data is more likely to be hot; if so, BTC will first drop for a while, then bounce once before the election, and after the election, face the last drop of Q4, with the low point roughly between mid-November and December 10. If the data is cold, this bearish scenario might be invalid.
01 Where the scenario stands
On October 26, BTC's second weekly candle closed below 83,000, confirming that this breakout was basically a false breakout. Last night, the Federal Reserve held steady, but its stance was more hawkish than the market expected. The vote was 10 to 2, with two members directly advocating a rate hike. The probability of a rate hike in December rose from 36% to about 78% within a month.
Next, all eyes are on tonight's PCE. The market expects 3.6%, last month was 3.4%. The PPI year-on-year has already jumped to 6.35%, so I believe the probability of hot data is about 60-70%.
On the market, BTC surged to 81,700 after the rate decision but was pushed back, now hovering around 79,800. ETH is weaker, having already broken the 2,328 support.
02 If PCE is hot
Once the data is out, long-term interest rates will likely rise first. BTC will probably return to around 78,000, which is the 100-day moving average. ETH may break below 2,283 and see levels around 2,200.
On the afternoon of October 30, there is a large-scale options expiration, whichThe strong performance of $SKHYNIX and the pullback in the crypto market essentially represent the same money choosing between two types of assets.
1. AI hardware is siphoning incremental venture capital
SK Hynix's earnings call conveyed a clear signal: AI storage demand is structural and long-term, with a supply shortage expected to continue until 2030. This certainty attracts a large amount of capital to stay in or flow into the AI hardware sector. Some analyses directly point out that the capacity expansion of Korean AI chips is competing with the crypto market for the same pool of venture capital. The AI capital cycle continuously absorbs incremental funds, causing the crypto market to lack the fuel for a rally. Even miners are shifting computing power to AI hosting because contract returns are more stable.
2. The correlation between SK Hynix and the crypto market has "broken"
A key data point is that the 20-week rolling correlation coefficient between BTC and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) has turned negative (-0.41). This means that the movement of chip stocks no longer drives the crypto market; when SK Hynix rises, funds do not necessarily flow back into crypto. However, the capital occupied by SK Hynix and other AI assets may marginally drain the already limited liquidity in the crypto market. Market participants like Tom Lee have also observed de-risking in the US, South Korea, and Taiwan regions The FOMC has concluded, but today's most noteworthy point isn't the "status quo."
The Federal Reserve voted 10 to 2 to maintain the interest rate at 3.75%-4.00%, as expected. However, the two dissenting votes both advocated for a 25 basis point hike. On the surface, it looks like the doves held steady, but the details reveal a growing rift among the hawks—after the meeting, Chair Powell only said "it depends on the data," without giving any directional commitment.
The market reaction is quite interesting: BTC hovered around 81,000, with a 24-hour high-low range of only about $1,400, indicating a contraction in volatility. On the ETF front, support is holding; BTC spot ETFs saw inflows of approximately $424 million over three days, and net inflows in October have turned positive again. However, SOL spot ETFs have experienced outflows for two consecutive weeks, about $50 million, with SOL's year-to-date decline nearing 20%.
There is a narrative and price divergence worth noting here: Solana is shifting from a Meme narrative to stablecoins and tokenized assets, with JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Visa already conducting on-chain business. Yet, SOL's price and ETF capital have not kept pace, and the share of perpetual contracts on-chain has dropped from 17% to 6%.
My assessment: The FOMC gave no clear direction, but the hawkish rift, ETF divergence, and narrative-price disconnect all point to the same thing—the market is not waiting for direction but is repricing risk premiums. Positioning matters more than views; BTC's 80,000 level and SOL's narrative realization pace are the two anchors to watch going forward. $ZIL: A 2.6% Bounce Despite Major Security Concerns?
$ZIL trades near $0.001995 after bridge and proxy contracts were reportedly compromised and the CEO resigned. Surprisingly, it still rose 2.6%.
But volume is only around 40% of normal, suggesting weak liquidity. This bounce may reflect limited selling rather than strong buying demand. With thin trading, even small orders can move prices sharply.
A green candle doesn't always mean confidence. $ZIL remains a high-risk?
#FedKeepsRatesUnchangedPalantir's Q2 revenue growth of 93% year on year, alongside 149% growth in US commercial revenue, explains why expectations have risen so sharply. The Q3 test is whether orders validate that momentum beyond a single strong quarter. Raised guidance helps the case, but elevated valuation leaves little room for uneven execution.
#PalantirQ3Valuation $AAVE, does an unchanged policy rate mean easing for on-chain lending? The Fed keeps the target range at 3.75%–4%, but inflation remains high, and market funding costs have not significantly decreased. Lending protocol revenue depends on borrowing demand, utilization, and bad debt risk; an unchanged interest rate does not automatically lead to expansion. If deposits and loans grow simultaneously and liquidations remain orderly, revenue quality is more stable; if volatility increases bad debt, I will downgrade the resilience assessment.On October 28, the FOMC maintained the interest rate at 3.75%–4.0%, as expected, but the vote was 10:2, with two voters (Cook and Harker) explicitly opposing and advocating a 25 basis point hike. The statement described the economy as "expanding at a strong pace" and inflation as "still elevated." The overall tone of the Fed Chair's press conference was hawkish, stating "we have clearly indicated we are ready to act." The Federal Reserve has not closed the door on further tightening, and the macro pressure on risk assets remains.
Around 2,310 is an "observable zone" supported by on-chain costs, but not a "safe buy zone." Prices show resilience here, but among the three suppressing factors—ETF outflows, relatively low active selling ratio, and hawkish FOMC—at least one (ETF flows) needs a substantial reversal to confirm adding positions. The more reasonable approach currently is: if participating, only lightly probe at 2,250–2,310 when the decline stops, with a strict stop loss below 2,239; if waiting for the right side, watch the recovery around 2,370–2,400 and the shift in ETHA capital flows. While institutions are still net reducing holdings, the risk-reward ratio for heavy bottom-fishing is not favorable.#$BTC dropped to 80,000 at 09:49, and the Hyperliquid 40x position I wrote about yesterday was liquidated again. This time it was a long position: 33.71 BTC were liquidated exactly at 80,000, resulting in a loss of about 47,000 USD. Yesterday at 16:35, its short position of 77.69 BTC was liquidated at 81,700. In less than 18 hours, both long and short sides took a hit. In between, it actually made a profit once: at 2 AM, it flipped long with 303.57 BTC at 80,789, and closed at 81,287 around 4 AM,Results settled, none of the three coins rushed to move
$BTC 80,647, staying put as expected, 80000 not broken 📊
At 2 AM, the Federal Reserve maintained the rate at 3.75%-4%, with 10 votes in favor and 2 against. Waller downplayed forward guidance, leaving the December rate hike uncertain. At the 80647 level, the market waited a week just for this moment, but there were no surprises and the price didn’t move. Support below 80000 remains, but no one is willing to chase upwards.
$ENA 0.19824, interest-bearing coins are waiting for high rates 🌾
Ethena’s USDe collateralized short-term U.S. Treasury yields are linked to the dollar interest rate. With the FOMC holding steady, the duration of high rates extends, increasing the appeal of interest-bearing stablecoins. At 0.198, the 8% gain from two days ago has been fully given back, now just waiting for the next direction.
$SOL 101.27, holding the 100 mark but no on-chain volume 🚀
Solana dropped from 105 and has been sideways at 100 for a week. The new consensus is truly up, but on-chain transactions haven’t exploded. If 100 doesn’t break, it’s consolidation; a real rise requires on-chain activity to return, which is still early. Risk appetite hasn’t changed significantly after the FOMC.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.Tonight at 20:30, the US September PCE and the preliminary Q3 GDP figures will be released together.
Having these two data points hit at the same minute is a rare combo recently.
PCE is the Fed's most recognized inflation indicator, and GDP is the engine speed of the economy. One shows whether prices are still hot, the other shows how much strength the economy still has.
What the market fears most now is not high inflation, but the combination of "inflation not coming down, yet the economy slowing." If such data appears, the Fed will be caught in a dilemma: cutting rates risks inflation, not cutting risks employment and growth.
For $BTC, there is only one rule on such nights: the moment the data comes out, volatility is highest and the direction is least reliable. First comes the spike, then the real trend follows—this is normal. Many get stopped out in the first minute, and by the time the true direction emerges, they have no position left.
The same applies to $ETH, which follows Bitcoin but with greater amplitude. High-leverage intraday positions will be tough tonight. Altcoins usually react later and more violently, so don’t treat small coins as a safe haven.
My approach is to not act in the first fifteen minutes after the data release, waiting for the initial fake move to finish. The real direction is not set by the data itself, but by the subsequent reaction of US Treasury yields and the US dollar index—that’s the real vote of capital with its feet. Whether the data beats expectations is just the fuse; how the market interprets it is the explosive.
If you have positions tonight, remember to keep margin; don’t let the spike decide for you.
Don’t bet on the data tonight; bet on probabilities, not opinions. Directly review the historical replay, compare the Nasdaq and Bitcoin side by side, and provide a reference for everyone to use as they see fit. To be clear, if the path is right, the thinking is right; if the outcome differs, it's just history for reference, as the market never simply repeats itself. $BTC $ETH $SNDK In 2018, the Nasdaq was already at a resistance level, with interest rate hikes and trade wars pressuring growth stocks, which continued to fall after the election, bottoming out gradually. Bitcoin was even worse, already in a bear market, continuing to drop after the election, hitting a major bottom in December, with many holding positions to the point of despair. In 2022, the Nasdaq was initially suppressed by high inflation and aggressive rate hikes, with huge volatility. Bitcoin's situation was even more dramatic, with the election coinciding with the FTX collapse, directly hitting a major bottom phase, panic sentiment maxed out, and countless leveraged accounts liquidated. But there is an interesting commonality. After uncertainty settles, no matter how severe the drop at the time, a recovery phase slowly follows. As a tech growth index, once policy uncertainties are resolved, capital reevaluates valuations. Bitcoin, with its high beta characteristic, often moves up and down with the Nasdaq, but with even more extreme volatility. Looking at this year, no one can predict the outcome with 100% certainty. Those wanting to use historical patterns as a reference should simulate past scenarios themselves. If the path resembles previous years, with uncertainty resolved and bad news fully priced in, a recovery phase will gradually begin. But remember, each macro backdrop is different—Federal Reserve, inflation, and regulatory narratives have all changed, so simply copying past patterns may not work. #FederalReserve holds rates steady in December A while ago, a buddy reminded me to check the token unlock calendar.
I didn't take it seriously at the time,
thinking unlocking is just unlocking, how much impact could it have?
Later, a few days before $APT unlocked, the price started to rise,
and the group began shouting about a breakout.
I couldn't resist and chased a bit.
On the day of the unlock, as soon as the volume came out, the price directly crashed down.
I stared at the market dumbfounded for a long time,
not sure whether to cut losses or hold on.
In the end, I sold at a small loss.
After that, I started checking the unlock schedule.
Turns out every month some projects release volume,
pulling up before unlock and crashing down after.
The pattern is as old as time.
For $ARB, I later just observed and didn't chase.
I simply avoided looking at it a few days before and after unlock.
I keep $USDC as a buffer in my hand,
not letting a single impulse mess up my position.
Now before buying, I check two things first:
Is there a large unlock coming up?
Who gets the unlocked tokens — the team or early investors?
If the answer is unclear, I just hold off.
No matter how noisy the group is, I don't follow.
Unlocking doesn't necessarily mean a drop,
but at least don't rush in at the sharp edge.
If you really believe in it, wait until the volume is fully released before deciding.
Rushing in for a moment's gain,
you'll be the one losing. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
#微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期
#三星Q3营业利润创新高，净利润不及预期 This aligns with the institutionalization trend and is not a buy signal. BlackRock's iShares plans to launch PBIT, offering Bitcoin exposure through options, with a single batch of options having an initial maximum loss of about 10% and capped upside.
I see three aspects of the trend: direction, product filling is somewhat positive; capital, filing does not equal inflow; price, news needs trend confirmation. If the protection design is accepted, then the fear of decline may ease.
Trend is the best friend; I won't jump the gun. When facing this kind of news, do you all use trading volume or moving averages to judge the trend?Spreading out the barn ledger, the total harvest is slightly underwhelming, but the experimental field's row of cloud seedlings is growing faster than anyone else — that's the first impression Alphabet's quarterly report gives. Revenue reached 127.58 billion, up 25% year-over-year, just a bit short of the community's forecast; net profit dropped about 25%, with diluted earnings per share at $2.12, also missing the mark. As an old farmer squinting, the problem isn't with the crops themselves but with a few bags of investment inventory in the barn that have gone moldy — equity investments lost money, so the books don't look good.
But if you only sigh over the total ledger, you're seeing the field too shallowly. Google Cloud, that experimental plot, grew crazily by 103% year-over-year, beating the forecast line; meanwhile, the old cornfield of Search didn't meet expectations. It's like a cornfield cultivated for over a decade suddenly overshadowed by a newly opened vegetable patch next door. The company also nailed down the 2026 expenses for buying farm machinery and fertilizers between 195 billion and 205 billion, clearly stating — 2027 will see even more. Isn't this the wisdom only old hands understand? The land needs nurturing, the moisture must be preserved; spreading more fertilizer now is for the soil's strength three to five years down the road, not just tomorrow's basket of vegetables.
Looking at the neighboring slope's XPLTR, it's connected to this weather. The harder Google swings its big hoe of capital expenditure, the looser the soil becomes in computing power, data, and AI frontiers, so the seedlings there naturally grow with the wind. The linkage of token assets ultimately comes down to the same cloud and rain belt — upstream big farmers willing to invest in the land bring life to downstream seed, fertilizer, and farm machinery shops. But the old farmer must speak plainly upfront: until those moldy accounts in the barn are cleared, the books won't be tidy. Speculators watch the daily weather; farmers watch the seasonal soil moisture. If you pull seedlings during the grain filling stage, the autumn harvest will be shriveled; if you rush to harvest right after plowing, you'll only get weeds. Alphabet's ledger — slightly underwhelming total harvest, experimental field's crazy growth, and the old farmer still investing — these three things together form a game that must be played slowly according to the four seasons, not a market day deal of weighing and sowing. #googleq3mixedresultsA computing power commitment of $53.7 billion has already been placed at the center of the board, and every opponent across from me is also my piece supplier—this game was never about fundraising from the first move; it’s a list of sacrificed pieces with all the midgame forces mortgaged in advance.
Burry’s opened record shows about 537 billion in computing power and infrastructure commitments. Note, this is not a "planned expenditure," but a forced move already recorded in the game: once placed, it takes effect immediately, with no take-backs. What truly chills a grandmaster’s spine isn’t the number, but the structure. Amazon and Google simultaneously occupy three seats—investor, supplier, and sales channel. In the player’s terms: half of my computing power is supplied by my opponent, every attack I make must pass through squares controlled by the opponent, and even after my pawns promote, I still pay taxes to the opponent. This is circular financing, called self-feeding pieces on the board. The most dangerous thing is never being in check, but thinking you’re attacking while every step actually adjusts the opponent’s formation.
The 537 billion must be realized through revenue growth; this is a lone pawn advancing deep into enemy lines: no supporting chain behind, every square ahead controlled, whether it can promote depends entirely on whether the midgame can hold until the endgame. Burry isn’t asking "is the revenue fast enough?" but "is this pawn line fake?"
Looking at the retail quota, it’s 15% to 20%. Pushing the pawns on the rear wing to the front line, leaving them to be guarded by the spectators—there’s an ancient name for this in the game record: human shields. The opening invites the audience in, the midgame burdens the audience, and in the endgame, the audience is left with only a single constrained knight.
The linkage of tokenized assets like $xAMD is a flank restraint. The main battlefield is computing power, but the point of restraint is liquidity: when core assets are bound by triple identities, any exchange triggers a chain reaction—suppliers become creditors, investors become channels, channels become valuation anchors. At that point, valuation isn’t calculated, it’s forced out.
The detail I care about most is: the initiative in this situation is not in the hands of the bettors at all. Burry isn’t predicting prices; he’s pointing out a structural hanging piece—all the heavy pieces hang on the same diagonal line, and if anyone nudges it lightly, the entire line collapses.
The endgame hasn’t started yet, but the king already has nowhere to castle on the open line. #anthropiccomputescrutinyFeeling great! This round of shorting SanDisk earned a 40% profit, I'm cashing out first. 🤌
From a technical perspective, the daily chart is directly suppressed under the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, a classic bearish alignment. 1412 slid all the way down, with a death cross pointing down and volume still surging. This is not a shakeout with shrinking volume; it's clearly funds pulling out.
The earnings report is coming tonight. Many think revenue will definitely rise, but don't get too excited yet. Last time in Q2, despite a 6.5% beat, the market was still crushed badly. Just look at SK Hynix next door; the market no longer cares how well you did last quarter, only your next quarter's outlook. This script looks like "good news fully priced in," so a drop is normal.
I entered this position at 1371.9, targeting 1250 first. Tonight, I'm mainly watching the show; if it doesn't break down, I'll hold on.
Brothers, what do you think about tonight's earnings? Will it break through 1250 directly, or will the main players pull a "deep V" fakeout? Comment below and guess if I can double this position again tonight? 👇
#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ $SNDK 97.5 billion USD is not a skyline, but a giant load-bearing beam welded onto the balance sheet—Meta's latest financing directly presses the ambition of AI infrastructure into the load-bearing layer. The initial 37.5 billion was just the foundation pile; the maximum 60 billion in 2027 is the construction permit renewal. The total "planned height" of 97.5 billion is already approaching structural limits; the 25 billion in common stock subscriptions received about five times demand, like pre-sale blueprints being snapped up, indicating the market is willing to buy the facade renderings first. But what really determines whether the building can stand is another 12.5 billion in mandatory convertible preferred securities, with a 6.5% annual interest rate. That’s not decorative lines, but continuous energy-consuming pipelines embedded in the load-bearing walls.
Free cash flow turned negative in Q3, signaling the basement is starting to leak. The above-ground floors are still being added, but the underground drainage is unfinished. Any supertall building knows what this means: it’s not that construction can’t continue, but each floor must use more expensive steel, denser joints, and stricter deformation monitoring. The annual capital expenditure guidance of 135 to 145 billion USD is equivalent to erecting multiple tower cranes simultaneously; the supply of concrete, formwork turnover, and cash flow recovery must be perfectly synchronized. If even one tower crane waits for materials, the entire construction organization begins to incur financing costs.
NVIDIA’s 3 billion and AMD’s 1 billion investments are more like strategic embedded components, not just financial investments—they bind the computing power supply chain and capital chain into the same structural system, enhancing local stiffness but also making node stress more complex. The problem returns to the stiffest main beam: can AI spending generate enough cash flow to cover investment and financing costs? The design drawings can be infinitely elevated, but operating cash flow is the live load on the floors; if the live load doesn’t rise, the 6.5% dividend and convertible terms will become layers of additional dead load. XHOOD’s linked pricing essentially watches whether this construction schedule shows a "superstructure faster than foundation acceptance" mismatch.
In construction, the most dangerous thing is not the building height, but sudden changes in vertical stiffness. The fivefold subscription on the financing side gives confidence in the facade, but negative free cash flow, steep capital expenditure increases, and interest-bearing preferred securities combined represent a typical high-level transfer layer: impressive in appearance, but the load path requires repeated verification. The white paper is just a design drawing, the financing announcement just a start order; what truly determines project value is basement waterproofing, main beam reinforcement, and the arrival time of every truckload of concrete. 97.5 billion is not height, but load; before cash flow turns positive, every additional floor is a judgment on the foundation. #metafinancingto97.5b$BTC dropped to 80,000 at 09:49, and the Hyperliquid 40x position I wrote about yesterday was liquidated again. This time it was a long position: 33.71 BTC were liquidated exactly at 80,000, resulting in a loss of about 47,000 USD. Yesterday at 16:35, its short position of 77.69 BTC was liquidated at 81,700. In less than 18 hours, both long and short sides took a hit. In between, it actually made a profit once: at 2 AM, it flipped long with 303.57 BTC at 80,789, and closed at 81,287 around 4 AM,$UNITREE Everyone says the big A market is bullish, let's analyze Unitree.
First, look at the stock price: it dropped from a high of 739 to 662, down nearly 5% today. But I won't talk about candlesticks; I'll directly tell you who's selling and who's buying.
On the capital side, there was a net outflow of 246 million in large orders. What does that mean? Big money sold 2.631 billion today but only bought 2.385 billion. Net selling of 246 million means they're running.
In plain language:
Super large holders are selling, medium holders are buying. Big money is handing chips to retail investors and small speculators who rushed in.
The leaderboard is even more brutal: net outflow of 260 million.
On October 26, the leaderboard showed a total net outflow of 260 million. The top five buyers combined only bought 556 million. Looks like a lot? But look who is buying: CICC Shanghai, Guotai Haitong, CITIC Shanghai branch—all are speculative seats.
This kind of leaderboard structure means institutions are selling, speculators are buying. What are speculators? They buy today, sell tomorrow, short-term fighting, and dump after running. Once speculators withdraw, who will support?
Unitree rose from 404 to 739, doubling, and after that, super large funds are using earnings report good news to massively unload. Speculators and retail investors are taking the high-level chips.
A 477x PE ratio, profits still declining, tell me what is holding this up?
#霍尔木兹重开方案浮现，油价回落能否持续？ $AXIS plunged from 0.2276 to 0.1393, down 38.8%, while $BTC fell just 1.27%. A fresh low of 0.1366 suggests token-specific selling pressure. 📉 Key Market Signals: • No spot market on OKX: Only AXIS-USDT perpetuals are available. • Extreme funding: Rates hit -1% before settling at -0.63% every 2 hours, potentially costing shorts around 7.6% daily. • Open interest doubled: Rising from 1.18M to 2.34M, suggesting fresh positions are entering despite the crash. • 2.12% discount: Perpetual prices traAt 3 a.m. on the sounding chart, a warm and humid airflow from Wall Street is rising—it’s neither a typhoon nor a cold front, but a 2% Bitcoin cloud cluster being forcefully inserted into the pressure belt of traditional assets.
The old rule of the National Meteorological Center: to judge the weather, don’t look at what the clouds look like, but how much moisture they carry and which guiding airflow they follow. The WBMO released by VanEck this time essentially packs stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin into the same sounding balloon, with Bitcoin’s weight anchored at 2%, adjustable between 1% and 5%. This figure alone looks like a small disturbance in the upper-level jet stream, insignificant; but you must understand, atmospheric circulation is never driven by big chunks, but by those trace components that persist and accumulate continuously. The 2% is that tracer; once it enters the initial field of the regular mode, every subsequent assimilation will include it.
Franklin Templeton is even more worth watching. FBEQ and FIBT start with about 95% U.S. stocks and 5% Bitcoin, and plan to use stock dividends to continue increasing Bitcoin holdings. What is this action called in meteorology? It’s called precipitation echo self-enhancement—originally just a weak echo, it feeds itself bigger through continuous moisture supply. Dividends are a stable inflow, directing it into Bitcoin exposure, effectively connecting a continuously flowing water pipe to this cloud system.
More crucial is the shift in circulation patterns. In the past, the asset management industry treated Bitcoin like an isolated thunderstorm cell: watching from afar, marking risks, and avoiding it. Now, from dividend reinvestment to multi-asset portfolios, it is modeled as a permanent member of the climate system. When multiple institutions simultaneously write 1% to 5% exposure into their strategy documents, this is no longer a single weather event but a migrating climate state. I have seen it many times: when a variable is first included in a long-term statistical series, everyone says it’s too noisy; but when it appears continuously in forecasts for three quarters, it becomes part of the baseline state.
But the forecaster’s duty is to report risks, not visions. The adjustable range of 1% to 5% translates into a very wide uncertainty interval in forecast language. A 5% Bitcoin exposure stacked on 95% U.S. stocks equals coupling two high-volatility systems; the variance of the coupled system is not additive but resonantly amplified. When a liquidity cold snap hits, correlations will instantly soar close to 1, and the insulation layer of diversification will fail on the spot. This is not a black swan; it’s a frontal zone that numerical models should have flagged long ago.
As for $xUSAR and similar U.S. stock token targets, their linkage with this multi-asset portfolio is like the superposition of sea and land breezes with valley winds: watching stock wind direction during the day and crypto wind direction at night, the misalignment of switching nodes is the turbulence most easily underestimated.
Finally, a professional judgment: when asset managers start using dividends—the most stable cash flow—to feed Bitcoin exposure, this upgrades Bitcoin from a weather event to a climate factor—and the first stress test of this new climate state will not happen on a sunny day. #vaneckfranklinbtcetfsIf I were to write it as a strategy, I would set one rule: if the distribution volume of long-term holders decreases, then lower the alert level for selling pressure, but do not trigger a bullish signal. Quantitative beginners are most afraid of mistaking "selling less" for "price going up" 🤖
PANews cited data from CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.: from October 22 to 29, the 30-day distribution volume of BTC long-term holders dropped from 310,000 to 240,000, a 22% decrease; MVRV fell from 1.67 to 1.65, with profit buffer narrowing by 2 percentage points.
I think this is more suitable as a risk filtering condition. A slowdown in distribution indicates that the recent reduction in holdings has weakened; however, a decline in the 30-day rolling total does not mean daily improvement; this group still holds 65% unrealized profits, and subsequent realization cannot be ruled out. My rule would add a "monitor daily changes" step to avoid being misled by window effects. Would everyone require continuous improvement over several days, or add some other conditions? $xQQQ is very likely to open sharply lower today due to Google's earnings report. The key question is whether it can rebound. One factor for a rebound is the trend of Hynix, but Hynix's stock price was dragged down sharply after Samsung Electronics released its earnings report, so let's first see how the close goes.
Then, if QQQ really opens sharply lower at the market open, we need to watch the capital inflow within the first half hour. Also, Amazon is releasing its earnings report after hours, so if you really want to speculate, the best moment to watch is the market reaction after Amazon's earnings release.
I also mentioned this in yesterday's video and have been sharing it with everyone these past few days through videos and push notifications: use traditional stocks to hedge or directly stop loss, mainly with traditional pharmaceutical and financial companies that have already released earnings reports, to guard against sudden events in big tech. #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 $UNI
While others are still debating bulls and bears, there's a rather niche on-chain metric: 13,137 new UNI addresses were added yesterday, the highest since September 2020; daily active addresses reached 14,591, a one-year high. This is according to Santiment's statistics.
Coincidentally, UNI's current price is hovering around $7, at 7.05, down 2% in 24 hours and about a quarter down over the past month.
A surge in addresses with a stagnant price—I've seen this combo a few times. Most of the time, it's not a reversal; it means there are genuinely buyers picking up below $7, and those engaging with interactions are back. v4 and Unichain are continuously progressing.
My judgment: one person can open ten wallets, so the address count is heavily inflated. Until spot trading picks up again, I consider this noise. I’m neither short nor long at this level; let the addresses run for a while first.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $BTC
The Federal Reserve stands pat, with a 10 to 2 vote, leaning hawkish. BTC fell below $80,000 within an hour, hitting a low of 79,700, even lower on Binance at 79,667, now barely climbing back around 80,100.
This is already the third time this week testing the 80,000 line. The previous two times it bounced back, but this time I think it's different—the two dissenters are the ones wanting a rate cut, so the December uncertainty is basically gone.
The contract funding rate is still 0.034%, longs are still paying to hold, and the $2.59 billion open interest hasn't budged. Breaking the level without reducing positions—this isn't panic selling, it's holding firm.
Last time it broke 80,000 I took a short-term long and made a small profit before exiting. This time I don't even bother watching the order book. Testing the same line three times, I might get itchy on the fourth, but at least this time I'm holding back.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温