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SOL generates over 60,000 new coins every day. The current inflation rate is 3.59%, with a total supply of 636.4 million coins. About 22.85 million new coins are issued annually, which breaks down to 62,600 coins per day. At $100 each, that's roughly $6.3 million daily.
Almost all of these new coins go to those who stake. 437 million SOL are staked, accounting for 68.7% of the total supply. Dividing the inflation rate by the staking rate, the gross yield is about 5.2%. After deducting the common 5% validator commission, the net yield is around 4.96%. A year ago at the same time, the gross yield was about 1.6 percentage points higher.
This yield basically comes from newly issued coins. Holders who do not stake experience dilution, while stakers receive new coins that compensate for this dilution. After accounting for inflation, the actual yield is only about 1.3%. For liquid staking tokens like JitoSOL, the annualized yield on October 25 was about 4.8%, just slightly above the inflation rate.
Inflation is not fixed; under current rules, it decreases by 15% annually, with a floor of 1.5%. The SIMD-550 proposal submitted by Helius aims to double the reduction rate to 30%, bringing the floor forward to 2029. As of October 25, the on-chain parameter was still the old 15%. If SIMD-550 passes, calculations show the nominal yield would drop to 4.34% in the first year and 2.25% in the third year. $SOL Unbelievable! Bought Ethereum for $62,000, sold it over the years for $273.6 million, and today finally cleared out the last 7,594 coins 😂
Back in 2014 when Ethereum did its ICO, an address spent about $62,000 to subscribe to 200,000 $ETH at $0.31 each. Later, the Ethereum Foundation transferred another 42,654 coins to this address when ETH was only $13.82.
Over the years, this address has been selling off gradually, with an average selling price of about $1,368. The last 7,594 coins sat untouched for over a year, but were transferred to an exchange in one go early this morning, worth about $17.79 million, clearing the ETH balance in the address.
Turning $62,000 into $273.6 million, a 4,400+ times return—this kind of performance is enough to brag about for a lifetime. But looking back, the average selling price was still less than 60% of the current ~$2,340 price. If they had held on, the account value could have been even higher.
On the same day, there was a reverse scenario. Another address just withdrew 4,000 ETH from OKEx, collateralized it into a lending protocol, borrowed 6 million USDT, and added to their position, with a long average price of $2,503, currently facing an unrealized loss of about $2.47 million. Old money cashing out after thousands of times gains, new money borrowing to push in.
It took 12 years to sell it all; if it were me, I probably would have run away after a 10x gain.
For beginners, the advice is to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTCI was too busy at work during the day to look closely, but at night I just opened the market page and came across this, and my drowsiness eased a bit 🌙. Headlines about nearly a 30% shrinkage in a week are the easiest to make my fingers stop and my mind jump to the worst-case scenario.
According to DefiLlama data, the DeFi protocol Symbiotic, mainly on Ethereum, categorized as Collateral Markets, currently has about $322 million locked, down about 29.6% in a week, but a 1.6% increase in one day. With these two directions together, I actually feel we shouldn't rush to label it as "capital flight."
My judgment is: this is a risk signal that needs to be checked, not yet evidence that the protocol has problems. TVL measured in USD can be lowered by a drop in collateral asset prices; if you don't separate price impact from actual deposits and withdrawals, and count the entire decline as withdrawals, it's easy to misinterpret.
A single-day rebound can't erase a week's decline. If the rebound mainly comes from coin price, then the pressure on capital might not be relieved; if there is indeed net outflow, I would be more concerned about whether it continues. For someone like me who catches up on information at night, what I should look at next is the asset composition and deposit/withdrawal changes, not staring at the percentages in the headline that only make me more awake.
A reminder to myself: the more glaring the numbers, the more you need to first understand what they are measuring; don't trade your sleepiness for a hasty conclusion. A brokerage firm's Q3 report revealed a structural reshuffle in the crypto industry.
Robinhood's Q3 revenue hit a record $1.42 billion, with earnings per share of $0.51 falling short of expectations, causing the stock to drop about 7% in after-hours trading.
The real focus isn't the EPS but the revenue composition. Trading revenue was $867 million, up 19%, with options up 31%, prediction markets at $173 million soaring over 5 times, and cryptocurrency at $120 million down 55%.
Prediction market revenue surpassed crypto for the first time. Crypto trading volume dropped 38% year-over-year to $50 billion, with its revenue share falling from 21% to 8%.
Where did the money go? On-chain. The self-built Layer 2 based on Arbitrum launched in July, confirming $26 million in revenue in the first quarter, accounting for 22% of total crypto revenue, with fees exceeding $50 million and handling $80 billion in DEX trading volume. Excluding this, crypto revenue is still declining quarter-over-quarter.
Custodial spot trading profits are squeezed due to tighter regulations and rising compliance costs; on-chain gas, routing, and market-making fees are low but volumes are booming. Exchange growth is slowing, while DEX and Layer 1 fees are expanding against the trend.
The macro environment isn't easy either, with this week's FOMC meeting combined with tech earnings reports. But $BTC is fluctuating around $81,000, with no signs of panic withdrawals in funding.
The US spot retail dividend period may be nearing its end, with growth shifting from user acquisition to on-chain settlement competition. $ETH is the on-chain settlement layer, and $ARB is the tech stack of this L2.#三星Q3獲利預增近8倍，完整財報即將揭曉
$SAMSUNG: Earned the most in history, yet the stock price is falling
10/8 Forecast operating profit 107.4 trillion KRW, year-on-year +782.5%, breaking records for the fourth consecutive quarter. However, the stock closed down 2.42% that day, with foreign investors selling for 8 consecutive trading days. In the following week, Samsung fell 17.8%, marking the worst week since 2008.
The market fears three things: whether AI investments can pay off, US interest rates, and Chinese memory manufacturers catching up.
There are also positives: Samsung prices HBM4 at over $4 per Gb, more than three times that of HBM3E. SK Hynix has postponed some HBM4 backend equipment orders to next year; Hynix says investments are proceeding as planned, with differing explanations. Today’s focus is on the memory and HBM segment details, not the total figures.
The exhaustion of positives is more important than the positives themselves! Federal Reserve October Rate Decision Preview: Hidden Games Beneath the Calm
The Federal Reserve meeting at midnight is expected by the market to keep rates unchanged, with the focus on policy wording and the press conference.
Having just raised rates in September, the policy effects need time to transmit, combined with passive tightening from rising US Treasury yields, the likelihood of a rate hike this month is very low.
Key focus is on the post-meeting press conference: inflation statements, December policy guidance, and economic outlook—these three points will determine market direction.
Do not simply apply the fixed logic of "rates unchanged means market rise."
Base scenario: rates unchanged + hawkish remarks, market will rally first then fall; dovish wording will trigger a rebound; an unexpected rate hike would be a black swan event with extremely low probability.
Volatility in the crypto market will significantly increase, prone to spikes and shakeouts. It is not recommended to bet on direction in advance; wait for the meeting tone to settle, refer to the US dollar index and Treasury yield trends, then trade accordingly.
$BTC #微軟Azure成長43%，AI商業化能否提速？
$MSFT: The company best at beating guidance
Last quarter Azure grew 43%, this quarter's guidance is 44–45%, Azure has outperformed guidance every quarter this year. Revenue consensus is about $90.6 billion, EPS about $4.71. The risk lies on the supply side. This quarter's capex guidance exceeds $50 billion, the bottleneck is computing power, not demand. In October, they just exited a 50MW data center project in Essex, UK, because the power grid won't be available until the 2030s. Electricity is becoming the ceiling for AI.
Also OpenAI: Last fiscal year Microsoft received about $24 billion from OpenAI-related contracts, accounting for about 7% of revenue. Copilot paid seats are about 30 million.
Those who leave room for themselves most often exceed expectations!$ZIL
The CEO of Zilliqa has resigned. Alexander Zahnd voluntarily stepped down, and the official statement is that the investigation into the security incident is still ongoing, so the CEO is leaving first.
If this news came from another company, the coin price would definitely have shaken a bit. ZIL is currently priced at 0.00202, up 3% in the last 24 hours, with the low of 0.001938 just this morning, and it has been rising steadily since.
Either the negative news has already been priced in, as the market had already reacted to the previous security incident; or there really isn’t much real money trading this coin now, so the price movements are detached from the news. I lean towards the former. But if it’s the latter, that’s even more disheartening—coins without liquidity, trading based on news is purely for entertainment.
I only watch and don’t touch coins under investigation periods; I wait for the investigation results to clarify the full story before considering whether to enter.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #谷歌雲端業務成長82%，AI投入回報如何？
$GOOG: Cloud is sprinting, cash is bleeding
Last quarter, Google Cloud revenue grew +82% to $24.8 billion, with a backlog of $514 billion, and this quarter's consensus is about $29.6 billion. The cloud is really strong.
The problem is on the other side: last quarter's capital expenditure was $44.9 billion, more than operating cash flow of $39.1 billion, free cash flow was -$5.9 billion, the first negative since going public in 2004. The full-year capex guidance has already been raised to $195–205 billion.
Search is also under scrutiny: Meta's Muse AI assistant already has 10 million users, mostly for shopping. Bank of America analysts say search usage growth has become a focus again.
This quarter's EPS consensus is about $3.02, IG's analysis directly says it's close to a coin toss. What would make me admit I'm wrong: cloud revenue clearly exceeding $29.6 billion, EPS crossing the line, capex guidance not increasing further. If all three happen, I admit defeat.
Good revenue doesn't equal good profit! $ETH
2252 ETH were transferred into OKX yesterday afternoon, which amounts to over 5.3 million USD at today's price. This wallet has been selling continuously for nearly half a month, offloading a total of 12.41 million. At the same time, the Ethereum spot ETFs are also looking bleak, with a net outflow of 60.22 million overall yesterday, and only BlackRock's ETHA seeing outflows while the others remained inactive.
Selling pressure came from both ends, yet ETH closed today up from around 2300 to 2365, gaining 2% over 24 hours.
I tend to think this is short covering rather than new buying. The funding rate is only 0.009%, and the contract open interest of 1.54 billion USD shows no obvious increase in positions, so this rally feels a bit hollow. On the same day, BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of 176 million, clearly showing institutional money moving towards BTC, while ETH is seeing withdrawals.
I won't chase at this level. If you really want to be bullish, wait until it firmly holds above 2370.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Platform coins have been hit the hardest in this round, but there is a counterattack signal worth watching inside: BNB, $HYPE, $OKB
1. $BNB attracted a wave of retail investors due to the Nasdaq bell-ringing event. It also has a TGE tomorrow, likely triggering another buying wave.
Moreover, its technicals look good. The RSI is 51.2, the only one in the pool standing above the midline, and the MA7 (740.5) has crossed above the MA20 (736.9), forming a short-term golden cross. Now it only needs to break through the MA30 (749.7); once it closes above 750, it opens up space to 780.
2. HYPE is currently a strong coin pulling back, with the 76 support level being tested for the fourth consecutive week. But Hyperliquid’s perp position in the market remains unshaken, so the downward momentum is clearly weakening.
HYPE also rebounded to a key position today, standing above MA7 (78.3) and now challenging MA20 (80.5). RSI is neutral at 49.3, with MA30 at 83.6 pressing from above. At 31.9% of the 30-day range, if it closes firmly above 80.5 today, look for 88.
3. OKB was dragged down in this wave but could potentially counterattack. Okx just secured strategic investments from Circle, Ripple, and SC Ventures of Standard Chartered. Shorts have nearly maxed out their positions; if the FOMC signals dovishness, short covering could directly push this coin up.
Currently, RSI is weak at 37.5, with MA7 (110.5)/MA20 (116.7)/MA30 (119.2) in a bearish alignment all pressing down. The 30-day range is 105.9-143.94, with the current position only at 11.4%. Its 24h trading volume is only about $600,000, so a single large order can cause a 1% price swing, meaning price discovery is basically distorted.Bought spot for a day, why is BTC still stuck around 81000? Yesterday's net buying was quite obvious, but futures are quiet instead. It looks like someone is slowly accumulating coins, not rushing to push the price up with contracts, but those waiting for the market are running out of patience.
I'm leaning towards going long now, but I don't want to chase directly at 80948. The cheap range from 79505 to 81298 has already passed. The 15-minute 20 moving average is at 80961, the price is sticking to it, and the MACD is turning down, so it looks more like digesting the previous gains. The spot buying makes me reluctant to short, but I'm not sure if it will drop a few hundred points after buying. Damn, I'm just afraid that relying on net buying data as confidence, it might drop right after buying.
I'll watch the 80700–80800 range a bit longer, don't rush to sell if it drops, try to hold sideways and then test some longs. If it really keeps dropping there, I might not dare to catch it either, no need to talk myself up so bravely in advance. Keep the position small, admit a mistake below 80500, if it falls further there, this drop will be deeper than I want to take. As for above, I already want to take some profits near 81200, and 81300 just got touched then retreated, I’m not willing to put all profits on a breakout for now.
The US trading session hasn't started yet, whether spot buying can continue will be clearer later. Futures being quiet might just mean everyone is still waiting, can't assume it will take off immediately. Today, don't plan too far ahead for this rebound, I want to see if those who bought coins yesterday are still willing to catch on after it pulls back.🔒 Today, GMX locked stakers for half a year.
The proposal takes effect today: Solana revenue, after deducting GT buybacks, is fully used to buy GMX into the reward pool; the coin price touched $9 on the same day.
Locking positions is not bearish; it just pushes selling pressure further out.
I think this is not following the trend but a repricing after the tokenomics rewrite. Watch it reach back to the October highs.
If it falls below 8.3, consider this wave just an excuse.
With buybacks and locking, which side are you on?
$GMX From $BTC to altcoins, the crypto market is ushering in a "stock-coin linkage" Davis double play!
One of the most notable wealth effects in the current crypto space is that more and more crypto projects are deeply binding with publicly listed US companies.
These "shells" of traditional capital markets are playing an extremely sophisticated "capital flywheel game" by hoarding tokens as core strategic reserves.
Enterprise valuations rise with coin prices, then continue to buy coins through bond issuance or additional financing, forming a positive spiral—this market cap management tactic was validated in the last cycle and proved highly effective.
Looking at the current ecosystem landscape, almost every mainstream asset has found its own "listed treasury vehicle":
· Betting on BTC with MicroStrategy
· $ETH backed by BitMine
· SOL supported by Forward Industries
Additionally, Hyperliquid Strategies holds HYPE; Evernorth owns XRP; Cypherpunk targets $ZEC.
Today, whether it’s BTC, ETH, or major altcoins, each has a corresponding publicly listed US company as a liquidity base.
From the perspective of secondary market competition, choosing these core coins backed by US-listed treasury endorsements clearly offers higher safety margins and certainty.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #Laporan keuangan SK Hynix Q3 segera dirilis, bisakah HBM4 meningkatkan keuntungan? Who is secretly buying BTC? Yesterday, the net spot buying was quite obvious, but the contracts didn't really follow, and today the price is just sideways acting like nothing's wrong. This kind of market is the most tempting—afraid of missing a sudden surge, yet also afraid that if you just got in, you might be taking over the position from those who bought yesterday.
I have a bit more expectation for the rebound ahead. The spot buying pressure is strong; at least someone is genuinely absorbing coins, but just based on this, we can't be sure if it's all whales hoarding. BTC is currently at 80948, just pulled from 79505 up to 81298, already moved a bit, so we can't just look at the buying data and assume it's still a low position.
The 15-minute 20 moving average is at 80961, the price is grinding close to it, and the MACD is turning down. I’d rather wait for the 80700–80800 range; if it pulls back and holds there, then consider buying a bit. Damn, I say I’ll wait, but if it really drops back, I might start worrying if it’s going to crash back to 80k, so my position has to stay small. If it drops below 80500 again, I’ll leave—I don’t want to hold a short-term long position stubbornly waiting for spot buying to save it.
Above 81200–81300, I’d be a bit reluctant to keep holding; I just pulled back after touching it earlier. If it really goes past that, I’d feel more comfortable selling some first. A direct breakout would hurt, but it’s better than watching profits slip away. The US trading session hasn’t started yet; just because it’s quiet now doesn’t mean it will stay quiet or definitely go up. I’m watching for a pullback first—don’t want to spend the whole afternoon sideways without profit, then get itchy before the open and chase in, only to get stopped out on the first spike.Moody's today assigned RLUSD an A2 long-term rating and a P-1 short-term rating. Jack McDonald, head of Ripple stablecoins, explained simultaneously that this is the highest short-term tier under their new stablecoin framework and also RLUSD's first Moody's investment-grade rating. The issuer is Standard Custody & Trust Company. At this moment, CoinGecko spot XRP is about $1.33 (snapshot around 16:07 Beijing time).
What truly matters is not just having another rating, but that there is finally an external rating anchor on the institutional compliance list. Many asset managers and bank treasuries' investment policies first look at the rating threshold before discussing whether they can engage. The opposing view will remind: ratings are credit opinions, not guarantees, nor do they mean that countries have already issued licenses.
From the rating release until the end of November, first watch whether the full report and reserve disclosures are publicly updated. If the rating quickly goes into review or downgrade, or reserve transparency does not improve, treat this as a PR milestone rather than widespread institutional adoption.
$XRP
#RLUSD #stablecoinIn the short term, who is more likely to rise? I lean towards meme coins; just explaining the cost difference is quite significant. When a local dog posts a picture and the meme hits, it keeps spreading in the group. Technical narratives often get stuck at "let me finish explaining first," but before the money is paid, people have already left. However, I don't think technical projects are that unfair either; some documents you read for a long time and still don't know what they have to do with the token. The team’s tech is pretty strong, so what? Is this coin just there to serve as a payment QR code?Waiting for signals, no rushing ahead
$BTC is around 81,300, with the 80,000 level having been contested for a week. On the order book, buy orders are dense below, sell orders press down above, and the price is stuck in the middle, grinding back and forth. The chain is not quiet either: two wallets dormant for three years transferred out $200 million, while new wallets are withdrawing from custodians. Both bulls and bears are waiting for Walsh's statement early Thursday morning; at this time, it's about lighter positions, not accurate judgment; don't rush to bottom-fish, nor chase.
$SOL is reported at 104.6, holding near 100, but on-chain volume hasn't picked up. After falling back from 105, it has been sideways for a week. New consensus implementation does not equal active trading. As long as 100 is not broken, it remains in consolidation. For real strength, on-chain activity must return; during meme hype, elasticity is high, but when the market is weak, it struggles to stand alone, so early positioning is not very meaningful.
$WLD is at 0.486, and World App user growth has yet to be reflected in the coin price. Bioinformatics privacy and regulatory attitudes remain unresolved risks, with volatility greater than mainstream coins, so positions should not be heavy. Wait for clear news on the next region opening registration before reassessing.
This article is for market observation only and does not constitute investment advice.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Google Cloud's business growth of 82% has made AI returns the focus, and the semiconductor leveraged product SOXL is a direct reflection of this expectation. However, my judgment is straightforward: the news alone does not support chasing the highs, discipline takes precedence over emotion. A 16.7% surge in 24 hours pushed the price up to 105, close to the daily high of 105.5, while the 4-hour structure remains downward, having retraced 26.17% from the high. The short-term rise is just a corrective rebound. The top ten levels of the order book show 3,812 buy orders versus 9,890 sell orders, a buy-sell ratio of 0.39, with sellers clearly dominant; funding rate is 0.0000%, open interest is 533,000, sentiment is neutral to cautious, and no one is willing to pay a premium to chase the rise. Strategically, do not chase the current price; wait for a pullback to 99.35 to lightly test long positions, stop loss at 96.85, target 104.75; if it surges to 106.45 and encounters resistance then falls back, consider shorting with stop loss at 108.15 and target 100.25. Single trade risk should not exceed 1.5% of total capital, leverage positions to be halved when executing.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SOXL#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
$SOXL 7% of the supply is allocated for the first quarter airdrop. My first reaction: with this intensity, the sentiment is instantly hyped! 😱 Predict.fun has released the $PREDICT economic model this time.
After calming down, I think this is a positive for attracting new users, not a guarantee for retention. Rewards can attract people, but they don't prove that everyone is willing to keep using the protocol; whether users continue after claiming is the key.
Remind myself: don't mistake the airdrop hype for real demand. I'm more interested in seeing user retention after the rewards are distributed.Yesterday at the close, there was a prompt to increase positions, but the stocks I added are down today.
Wuliangye's earnings came out, and the Q3 data was very poor, which is the reason for today's big drop. But it rallied at the close, probably because the parent company repurchased shares. They previously said they would repurchase 10 billion, and at the beginning of October, it was updated to 1.2 billion. I guess they bought more today. The exact amount is unknown, but I estimate at most 2 billion. Large and small non-tradable shareholders always increase positions late. Let's wait for the announcement later.
Just wait 2 more days until the end of the month; the pre-New Year bull market is probably coming soon. #Anthropic正式申请IPO，或创上市估值纪录 This news strengthens the AI narrative's spillover support for Tesla's valuation, but the real short-term driver is hesitation among funds to chase high prices. I judge the current situation as a divergence within a strong trend; chasing longs requires waiting for a pullback confirmation. The market contradictions are very prominent: both the four-hour and one-hour trends are rising in the same direction, the price is only -0.09% from the high, yet it repeatedly stalls around 413.18, and the top ten order book buy-sell ratio is 0.34, with 34 sell orders versus 12 buy orders, indicating obvious selling pressure; turnover is only 122,000, funding rate 0.0000%, open interest 48,000, showing the rise is driven by existing positions rather than new leverage, sentiment is cautious. Strategically, a light long position can be taken on a pullback to 407.35, with a stop loss at 402.68 and a target of 419.52; if it breaks above 413.18 directly and the buy-sell ratio rises above 1, then chase with a stop loss at 410.44. Single position size should be controlled within 20%, no heavy positions at divergence.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$TSLA#Anthropic正式申请IPO，或创上市估值纪录
#Anthropic正式申请IPO，或创上市估值纪录
$TSLA When market risk appetite improves, what can emerging public chains rely on to retain funds? The Nasdaq's rise on Monday brought a valuation tailwind to growth assets, but new public chains depend more on user growth and application retention. If active users and real transactions continue to increase, the sentiment rally has a chance to turn into fundamentals; if unlocked supply or incentive tapering outweighs demand, I would consider the strength as a phase of liquidity trading.The ETH long position in this account was opened at 2,180 and has had its stop-loss moved up three times so far, each time announced in advance in my posts. Follow me, and you can see the real cost price, position ratio, and stop-loss level every day; no boasting when right, and honest records when wrong.
A quick note on the market after 23:00. BTC stood above 81,130, up 1.6% in 24 hours, but volume did not increase accordingly; ETH was even stronger, up 2.0%, with ETH/BTC rising from 0.0287 to 0.0291. Bitmine made a single purchase of 10,452 ETH, which is a direct marginal buy; such institutional accumulation at this scale is unlikely to disappear the same day, so ETH's relative strength will likely continue for several days.
My judgment is that this round of market action is an expectation game before the FOMC, not a trend market. Therefore, no new positions will be added; only one thing will be done: move ETH's stop-loss from 2,240 up to 2,290 to lock in this part of the floating profit; BTC's position remains unchanged, with stop-loss at 78,600. Conversely, looking at QNT, which is down 4.5% in 24 hours, BTC is up but it is not, indicating funds are concentrating on mainstream assets; buying altcoins during a rebound is the easiest way to lose money.
#OKXProphet #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $BTC Last night it briefly dropped below 80,000 to 79,700, then this morning in the Asian session it pulled back near 81,000 USD — bulls and bears are grinding back and forth along this line. The Federal Reserve's rate decision lands tonight at midnight; 90% of people are betting on no change, but the real explosive point is whether the wording will hint at another rate hike in December. Galaxy's research head stated: the bear market ended in June (when it briefly fell below 58,000), now it's an "accumulation phase," recommending buying on dips. But the capital flow doesn't lie: spot ETFs saw net outflows exceeding 770 million USD in the last two trading days, Strategy paused coin purchases and turned to buy back its own preferred shares, corporate buying has clearly cooled. Technically: only above 82,000 can we talk about bulls returning; breaking below 77,600 opens the way down to 75,000. On 10/30, about 11 billion USD in BTC options expire, with the biggest pain point at 78,000. Gold and real interest rates, this old duo, completely decoupled in 2026.
From March to July, real yields rose steadily. According to textbook logic, cash-flow-free assets should be suppressed by discount rates. Morgan Stanley, based on this relationship, estimated that gold prices should now fall below $3000; in reality, since the August peak, it has only dropped about 10%, still above $4000, about 28% higher than the model.
Supporting it are two structural buying forces: in Q2, central banks purchased gold at an annualized rate of about 1155 tons, and in Q3, gold ETFs saw a net inflow of about $31 billion, setting a historical record. Morgan Stanley thus defines this 28% as structural repricing and maintains a $5000 target price.
Two days later, Yuxuan Tang from JPMorgan Private Bank presented an opposite narrative: liquidity is thin, the Fed may raise rates again in December and early next year, the 10-year US Treasury yield still has room to rise, and gold faces downside risk.
This is a sharp signal for $BTC and $ETH. Gold is supported by central banks and ETFs, serving as an institutional hedge base; crypto has no moat, fully exposed to discount rates. Rising yields increase opportunity costs, and high-duration assets can only align through valuation compression.
Official reserves almost exclusively recognize gold, while private funds compete between gold ETFs and crypto for the same inflation-hedging basket. Central banks grab physical gold, ETFs absorb hundreds of billions, passively reducing Bitcoin's weight in the safe-haven narrative.
The key is not whether gold prices rise or fall, but how long this decoupling can last. The warning of “excessive fees” might not sound, and this detail made me pause my late-night screen scrolling. I work during the day and only have quiet time to watch the market at night; the screen is on, and I’m a bit sleepy, but seeing this actually made me more alert. Compared to the “huge amount” in the headline, I’m more concerned about the alert that should have appeared but might be missing. 🌙
The material says that two library vulnerabilities might cause Bitcoin applications that import PSBT and rely on these libraries for calculating miner fees to miscalculate the fees and miss the high-fee warning. I see this as an alert about application reliability, not a direct signal to judge coin prices.
What keeps me awake is: miscalculations aren’t the whole story; users might not even receive a reason to stop and check. My guess is, if both fee display and anomaly alerts depend on the same erroneous result, then a calm interface doesn’t mean the fees are normal. For ordinary users who can’t recalculate themselves, this gap is especially troublesome.
Calming down, I want to see if the affected scope can be clearly explained and whether the fix includes verification of abnormal fee scenarios. We can’t conclude all applications have issues based on this message alone. A note to myself: the more tired I am watching the screen, the more I shouldn’t take “no warning” as “already checked.”October FOMC: Most likely no change this time, but don't celebrate too early
Brothers, the Federal Reserve meeting is tonight (results will be out early tomorrow morning Beijing time).
Here's the conclusion first: It's very likely no rate hike in October, maintaining 3.75%-4.00%. The market has priced this expectation at over 90%, and almost all institutions and economists agree.
But don't really think the Fed is turning dovish.
This time it looks more like a "hawkish pause": taking a breather, but the stance remains tight. They just raised rates once in September, inflation hasn't come down (September CPI surged to 3.7%), employment is slowing but the economy hasn't collapsed. Waller himself doesn't like giving clear guidance, and will probably continue to emphasize "inflation is not yet under control."
So the real focus isn't whether to hike or not, but:
Whether the statement still includes phrases like "returning to 2% in a timely manner," whether any hawkish members vote against (market guesses 1-2 votes), and whether Waller's tone at the press conference is tough.
Personally, I lean towards skipping this time and hiking once more in December. This round of tightening isn't over, just slowing down. Pause ≠ end.
For the market, if confirmed as a hawkish pause, US Treasury yields and the dollar will have short-term support; $BTC $ETH and other risk assets (especially high-valuation tech stocks) shouldn't rush to go all in.
That's all for now, let's talk after tonight's results. What do you think? #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 📋 On the day of the Federal Reserve decision:
BTC around $80,500 to $80,730 (morning low about $79,400)
ETH Tuesday around $2,305 to $2,320
ZEC Tuesday 24-hour change about +2.8%
💰 CME FedWatch shows about 90% chance of no change, about 10% chance of rate hike (reading at 05:47 UTC on October 27)
📅 October 28: Decision at 2:00 PM Eastern Time, 2:30 PM press conference by Powell's successor Warsh; October 29: BTC mining difficulty adjustment; November 5: Zcash NU7
Times and data sources vary, so this is only a rough comparison. I can't tell who will move first, and I might be wrong.
📍 Reference levels: BTC $80,000 / ETH $2,300 / ZEC $1,200
Do you think BTC will hold first after the decision is announced?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek #CanBTCHold80K $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC $ETH $ZEC SpaceX's $40 billion GPU financing lease, today I want to ask a different question: The equipment will be updated, but the payment obligations last for several years. How can profitability be maintained during this period?
The disclosed arrangement shows that the lease terms for each batch of equipment are about five to five years and three months. The $40 billion refers to the expected principal payment scale, excluding interest and other fees, and the related interest rates have not yet been determined.
This makes the long-term usage value of the equipment very important.
After the new generation of GPUs is launched, the old equipment will not immediately lose its use, but what tasks it can undertake and how much customers are willing to pay will affect revenue. If the rental price for computing power drops faster than expected, the originally attractive returns will need to be reassessed.
I don't think fast hardware iteration necessarily means this financing cannot be done. Equipment serves different needs in layers, so there is room for operation. But whether the financing cycle and business cycle can align depends on actual operations.
Therefore, besides looking at delivery, I also want to see how long customer contracts cover, how the equipment utilization is, and how updates will be arranged.
Successful financing is worth celebrating, and it can indeed expand the business. But the competition, technology, and price changes over five years are the real challenges this money will face. The larger the amount, the more you cannot calculate returns based only on the first year's enthusiasm.
#SpaceX达成400亿美元GPU融资租赁协议 一名加密货币用户因私钥疑似泄露，在以太坊和Base链上损失约158万美元。约682枚ETH在短短两小时内被转走，其中约281枚ETH已被转移至Tornado Cash——一个常被用于混淆资金流向的隐私混币器。链上监测平台Scam Sniffer标记了这笔异常转出。 该事件再次凸显了自托管模式下的核心脆弱性：私钥仍是资产的最终单点故障。与智能合约漏洞或协议层攻击不同，私钥泄露可以绕过代码审计和多签保护。一旦私钥暴露，攻击者便获得对应地址的完全控制权，且交易不可逆转。 攻击可能如何发生 尽管细节有限，但模式并不陌生。攻击者通常通过钓鱼、恶意软件、虚假钱包应用，或云存储和截图中的意外暴露获取私钥。资金快速转移——两小时内682枚ETH——表明存在自动化的扫币机器人，它们监控被盗地址，一旦检测到资产便立即清空。281枚ETH转入Tornado Cash进一步增加了追踪难度，但区块链分析公司仍可追踪资金流向中心化交易所的充值地址。 行业影响 该事件提醒人们，加密安全不仅是协议问题，更是操作问题。对散户而言，损失凸显了在单一热钱包中持有大额资产的风险。对机构而言，这强化了采用多方计算（MPC）钱包VanEck's 1%-5% BTC range frames the experiment as portfolio construction, not a wholesale bet on crypto. Franklin Templeton's use of stock dividends to increase BTC exposure adds a different constraint: allocations may rise without fresh investor decisions. That could normalize small exposure, but volatility will still test investor tolerance.
#VanEckFranklinBTCETFs Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$APR Large buy cost decreased. Simulated slippage for a 100,000 scale buy dropped from 2.09% to 1.84%. Order size can be increased, but still verified with the 100,000 tier.
$AKE Large sell cost decreased, small sell cost almost unchanged. Simulated slippage for a 100,000 scale sell dropped from 0.53% to 0.42%. 10,000 sell still about 0.14%. Improvement is an execution benefit, not a directional signal.
$BEAT After order size amplification, slippage on both buy and sell sides increased significantly. Simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.16%/0.17%, for 100,000 it is 1.11%/1.15%. After order amplification, slippage on both sides rises, with a clear premium on large orders.#Google Cloud business growth of 82%, what is the return on investment in AI? The US OCC officially announced the final implementation rules of the GENIUS Act. Stablecoin issuers are restricted from directly paying interest, but there is still room for reward arrangements on third-party trading platforms.
This issue of TECHUB NEWS takes you through: What changes does the OCC's new regulation bring? Why do Coinbase's USDC rewards raise concerns in the banking industry? How will the competition between stablecoins and traditional banks develop? Earnings Preview | Microsoft & Google (After Market Close Tonight)
This week marks a critical window for validating AI capital expenditure returns. The market's tolerance for "spending effectively" has significantly decreased, shifting the focus from mere growth rate to: whether cloud business can absorb new capacity, the alignment between CapEx and free cash flow, and the pace of commercialization realization.
Google (Q3 2026)
• Consensus: Revenue around $128 billion (+25%), EPS about $3.00-3.02
• Key observation: Can Google Cloud sustain last quarter's 82% high growth and further approach or surpass the 90% range (scale about $29 billion)?
• CapEx: 2026 guidance has been raised to $195-205 billion, with free cash flow continuously negative; financing and return paths are under close watch
• Other points of interest: Resilience of Search ads (whether affected by AI search diversion), YouTube ad growth, Gemini enterprise penetration and TPU monetization, overall operating leverage
Current situation assessment:
As long as cloud-related data from both companies is not significantly below expectations, a positive short-term reaction is highly likely. However, AI investment has shifted from "narrative-driven" to "realization validation period," with a narrower margin for error than in the first half of the year — the degree of outperformance, subsequent guidance, and the alignment of CapEx with cash flow are more important than absolute numbers.
Are you more concerned about which company's cloud growth realization ability or the overall free cash flow pressure?
#EarningsSeason #EarningsPreview #MSFT #GOOGLI choose No for Google, and I’m pretty confident haha
Google’s profits in recent quarters have been pushed up a lot by the equity stakes it holds in those companies. The biggest one this quarter, SpaceX, has seen its stock price go down after going public, and this will eat into some of the profits.
For it to cross the threshold, it would require another holding company to suddenly have a major revaluation, but I haven’t seen any signs of that.
#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ $ENA has been showing relatively strong momentum recently. I have been buying consistently at the 0.2 level. Although it's not the absolute bottom, it is still a bottom range comparatively. I have previously shared the fundamentals of ENA with everyone, and there have been some short-term fundamental changes, so here is a summary.
ENA's token economic model is undergoing some important changes.
In the past, ENA had two major issues: continuous unlocking by early investors causing selling pressure, and protocol revenue growth not directly reflecting on the token value.
Now, both of these issues are starting to improve.
On one hand, Ethena has moved up the unlocking date for remaining investor tokens to October 5th, involving about 1.406 billion ENA tokens. The foundation has also acquired some of the early investors' locked tokens through OTC purchases.
On the other hand, the Fee Switch proposal has passed governance voting. According to the plan, once the USDe supply reaches $7.5 billion, 95% of the related net income will be used to buy back ENA.
Currently, the USDe supply is about $4.6 billion, so there is still some distance before buybacks start. Meanwhile, USDe's integration with X Layer and OK Wallet is also promoting ecosystem expansion.
The key for ENA going forward is whether the growth in USDe supply can translate into real token buyback demand. This could be an important shift in its long-term value logic. I remain optimistic about ENA. #SK海力士Q3 revenue surpasses 100 trillion KRW for the first time
The boss has something to say
SK Hynix's Q3 revenue reached 104.62 trillion KRW, operating profit 83.33 trillion, both setting quarterly records. Net profit was 39.78 trillion, up 216% year-on-year but below analyst expectations.
There are flaws in the financial report data, but the market gave a strong positive response directly. SKHYNIX surged 6.42%, SKHY rose 4.84%. Why does the market ignore the net profit missing expectations? Because the company gave an extremely optimistic guidance. Management expects memory supply-demand tightness to continue until 2030, with over half of the capacity from 2027 to 2028 already covered by long-term agreements.
I believe this is the strongest shot in the arm for this wave of the memory market. Net profit falling short due to taxes and accounting items is not important; the market is buying the long-term expectation of “shortage until 2030.” If you previously went long around 1250, you can say you have made it through and caught a big gain. Long-term contracts locking capacity mean the cyclical nature is greatly weakened, and valuation logic is shifting toward high-growth stocks.
Market sentiment is fully ignited, with short-term momentum for further gains. But after a big rise, be sure to take profits in batches and secure gains. No need to chase the highs.
BTC had a waterfall drop last night and now we watch if the 80,000 level can hold. If it doesn’t hold, expect a deeper pullback, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Don’t chase the rise or panic sell; set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; make sure to set your stop losses on your positions $BTC $ETH $ZEC Earnings Preview｜Microsoft & Google (After Market Tonight)
This week marks a critical window for validating AI capital expenditure returns. The market's tolerance for "spending effectively" has significantly decreased, shifting focus from pure growth rates to: whether cloud business can absorb new capacity, the alignment between CapEx and free cash flow, and the pace of commercialization realization.
Microsoft (FY27 Q1, July-September 2026)
• Consensus: Revenue about $90.7 billion (+16-17%), EPS about $4.72
• Key observation: Whether Azure's constant currency growth can reach or exceed management's previous guidance of 44-45%
• CapEx: This quarter's guidance exceeds $50 billion (last quarter about $41 billion), depreciation and operating costs will continue to pressure cloud gross margin
• Other focuses: Overall growth of Intelligent Cloud, Copilot paid penetration rate, changes in commercial remaining performance obligations (RPO), degree of free cash flow pressure
• Other focuses: Resilience of Search advertising (whether affected by AI search diversion), YouTube ad growth, Gemini enterprise penetration and TPU monetization, overall operating leverage
Current situation assessment:
As long as cloud-related data from both companies is not significantly below expectations, a positive short-term reaction is highly likely. However, AI investment has shifted from "narrative-driven" to "realization validation period," with a narrower margin for error than in the first half of the year — the degree of outperformance, subsequent guidance, and the alignment between CapEx and cash flow are more important than absolute numbers. This outflow does not support an upward trend; I see pressure on bullish sentiment. Yesterday, the Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $60,217,800, with only BlackRock's ETHA showing a net outflow.
I analyze trends with three criteria: looking at combined forces, the total outflow reflects weak demand; looking at breadth, only one fund outflowing does not indicate a full retreat; looking at persistence, one day's data cannot determine a reversal. Trend is the best friend; I don't try to time the top based on isolated news.
When judging the $ETH trend, do you focus more on continuous net flows of ETFs or on price and volume?#Moody's Grants rlusd A2 Long-Term Deposit Rating
【Follow Old Chives, Wealth Is Yours】Moody's has given RLUSD an A2 rating! Is Ripple's stablecoin about to start capturing the institutional market?
On October 28, Moody's assigned an A2 long-term deposit rating and a P-1 short-term deposit rating to RLUSD, the US dollar stablecoin issued by Ripple, covering native RLUSD on both the XRP Ledger and Ethereum.
What does A2 actually mean? First, look at the rating itself. Moody's long-term rating of A2 is upper-medium grade, indicating relatively low credit risk, but it is not the highest rating. The short-term rating P-1 is the highest tier in Moody's short-term rating system.
This assessment considered RLUSD's reserve backing arrangements and also evaluated the risks holders might face if the issuer were to go bankrupt or encounter similar situations. For institutions, third-party credit assessments help incorporate stablecoins into more familiar risk management frameworks.
What does this mean for Ripple and RLUSD?
I believe the real focus is on the threshold for institutional adoption. Competition among stablecoins has long been about more than just transaction volume; it also depends on reserve transparency, compliance arrangements, redemption mechanisms, and whether institutions are willing to use it for payments, settlements, and asset collateral.
Obtaining a Moody's rating could make RLUSD easier to discuss during institutional due diligence and risk assessments. However, whether the rating translates into real adoption will depend on issuance scale, circulation volume, and whether payment scenarios continue to expand. $XRP Will the Federal Reserve stay put tonight? Don't rush, the hawkish tone remains 🦅
The FOMC meeting runs from October 27 to 28, and the market consensus is: no rate hike this time. CME gives a 93.4% probability, with rates likely steady at 3.75%—4.00%. All 94 economists surveyed by Reuters agree. 📉
But don't get it wrong, this is not a dovish turn, it's a "hawkish pause." They just hiked in September, and Williams and Jefferson have said there's no need to move consecutively; let's watch the data first. Plus, with US Treasury yields soaring and financial conditions tightening on their own, the Fed is taking a breather. However, September's CPI was still 3.7%, with energy and tariff costs weighing down, so disinflation isn't smooth, meaning the statement and remarks will likely show no easing at all. 🦅
$BTC $ETH $DOOD
No new economic projections this time, so the decision itself carries limited information. The real focus is December: the market prices nearly a 75% chance of at least a 25 basis point hike, and all 100 economists surveyed by Reuters expect action then. Even more exciting is Chair Kevin Walsh's voice—he usually avoids forward guidance, but this time he has to explain "why the pause" and convince people that the fight against inflation remains strong. If interpreted as being too lenient on inflation, the bond market will instantly question credibility. 😬
In short: calm on the surface tonight, but hawks are everywhere beneath. December is the real test. 🎯#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
The FOMC decision in the early hours of October 29 Beijing time carries a core signal not about "whether to raise rates" (the market prices in about a 90% chance of a pause), but about how the Federal Reserve will set the tone for the policy path in December and beyond amid inflation still above target and resilient economic data. This communication stance will have spillover effects through two channels.
The core transmission is through real interest rates and risk appetite, not the rate decision itself. The Fed's policy impacts the crypto market via four paths: liquidity, real yields, the dollar, and risk appetite.
Currently, Bitcoin is under pressure near the $80,000 mark. If the statement is hawkish and strengthens expectations of tightening in December, the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets will rise, and high-beta crypto assets will be the first to bear liquidity contraction pressure.
Hawkish communication may push BTC down to test the $78,000 range; a neutral to slightly dovish tone would help stabilize it between $80,000 and $83,000; only a clear dovish shift can open space for risk appetite recovery.
Within assets, BTC is relatively resilient due to spot ETFs and deep institutional participation, while SOL and altcoins are more sensitive to marginal liquidity changes, with both elasticity and downside risk.
The Q3 GDP and September PCE data released at 20:30 the same day serve as a secondary validation of the FOMC signals. If growth resilience and inflation stickiness are both confirmed, year-end tightening expectations will further solidify, and the crypto market's high volatility window will not close with the decision but may instead be extended.Afternoon review: today's Asian session was basically "holding back".
$BTC has been fluctuating between 80,620 and 81,224 since 8 AM this morning. In the afternoon, hourly trading volume dropped below 11 million USDT, as everyone is waiting for the interest rate decision at 2 AM tonight.
What reassures me a bit is the 4-hour RSI: it was still above 36 at this time yesterday, now it's back around 53, so the short-term is no longer that weak. But the daily MA50 and the middle Bollinger Band around 81,900 overlap, so I won't consider it a reversal until it breaks above that.
My own approach is simple: no adding positions before the rate decision; after the result, I'll see which side breaks first and then decide whether to follow. $ETH is still weaker than BTC, so I continue to just watch.
Data timestamp 10.28 15:37, personal review, not investment advice.
After the rate decision, do you bet on BTC breaking 81,900 first or falling back to 80,600 first?
#BTC #FederalReserveBitcoin’s push above $80,000 looks less like a broad surge in conviction than a mechanical squeeze through a thin derivatives market. $BTC is trading at $80,668, up 0.96% over 24 hours, yet total open interest has fallen and the long/short ratio has slipped to 2.05. Price rising while positioning contracts is a specific signature: leveraged shorts are being removed rather than fresh longs arriving in force. The liquidation data supports that reading. Over 261 minutes, roughly $439,000 of short p$SKHYNIX earnings report explains that performance growth does not necessarily mean the stock price will rise!
SK Hynix's third-quarter revenue reached 104.62 trillion KRW, operating profit 83.33 trillion KRW, and the demand for HBM high-bandwidth memory driven by AI remains strong. However, for the AI chip sector, which has already been highly anticipated by the market, pure performance growth does not necessarily bring new upward momentum.
What I pay more attention to is that the market had already held very high expectations for the AI industry chain's growth. If subsequent performance and future guidance do not bring bigger surprises, capital may choose to take profits. What will truly affect the stock price next is whether next year's performance growth can continue to exceed market expectations and whether AI capital expenditure can maintain the current level.
This earnings report cannot be simply understood as negative, but it is also unwise to blindly be bullish just because profits hit a new high. The AI chip market has reached a point where the market is trading not just on performance, but on how much more growth can be expected in the future.
#SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 $BZ #原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动
#Middle East crude oil supply risks re-emerge
Oil prices just fell for two days before violently rebounding! The real big threat in the Middle East chess game is hidden after the midterm elections.
Yesterday, both Brent and WTI fell more than 1.6%, and the market once mistakenly thought the situation was easing; today, it directly reversed and rebounded, with Brent returning above $111.6 and WTI breaking through $102, both rising more than 2% intraday, with intense high-level shakeout.
This round of decline was a false signal: G7's 100 million barrel strategic reserve bottom support, high oil prices suppressing end demand, and Trump's deliberate oil price suppression before the election to maintain approval ratings—all three squeezed out panic premiums. But the Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping volume remains low, and the risk of substantial supply disruption has never been lifted.
More worrisome is the delayed risk: The US and Israel have finalized a "short but intense" strike plan against Iran after the midterm elections. The US military is deploying Patriot air defense systems and replenishing ammunition, and a new aircraft carrier strike group is about to reinforce the Middle East. Currently, the cost of war with Iran has soared to $47 billion, with American households bearing an average additional expense of $2,000.
For the market, a short-term oil price decline can slightly cool inflation expectations, benefiting risk assets; but if the situation escalates after the elections, oil prices could surge to new highs at any time, causing inflation to rebound and directly blocking rate cut space, putting renewed pressure on US stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Do you think oil prices will hit new highs after the election? Leave your judgment in the comments.No rate hike in October is an open card; Wash's speech is the hidden card
At 2 a.m. the Fed's October rate decision will be announced. The market basically knows whether there will be a rate hike or not. Gold is stuck near 4050, and both bulls and bears are waiting for Wash's press conference at 2:30 a.m.
Currently, gold is trading at 4058, back above 4000, with strong resistance between 4080-4100. Gold ETFs continue to be reduced, with funds lowering positions in advance to hedge risks.
The market prices in nearly a 90% probability of no rate change in October. After the September hike, Fed officials have expressed no support for consecutive hikes. The market expects a pause in October and possibly a final hike in December. The numbers are not surprising; the focus is on how Wash will leave the door open for a December hike. He won't state it directly but will signal through his description of inflation.
Three scenarios:
1. Hawkish: Emphasize stubborn inflation, paving the way for a December hike; U.S. Treasuries and the dollar strengthen; gold dips to 4000-4020 support;
2. Neutral avoidance: No clear guidance, market self-games; gold oscillates between 4020-4060, awaiting subsequent GDP and PCE data to break the deadlock;
3. Unexpected dovish: Downplay urgency of December hike; gold may surge to 4080-4100, but with high oil prices, dovish space is limited.
In summary: No rate hike in October is the open card; Wash's speech is the hidden card. It is not recommended to heavily speculate before the decision; wait for the press conference at midnight to settle. $BTC