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Monday opened, and last week's "risk-off resonance" seems to have dissipated: European stocks all closed higher, the VIX retreated from above twenty, and Micron even surged a few points intraday. Immediately, someone asked backstage if this was a reversal and whether it was worth chasing.
My view is the opposite: the more a Monday in a risky week suddenly turns bullish, the more it should be treated as a bull trap. The three major events this week (SK Hynix the Federal Reserve, and tech giant .$2500 was support. Now it’s the ceiling that flip says more than the level itself. When a zone that used to attract buyers starts attracting sellers, it means the defenders already left, not that new sellers arrived. $ETH ‘s been doing this quietly while $BTC gets the headlines underperforming on bounces, leading on pullbacks. That’s the real tell, not the 2339 print. Until ETH leads green days instead of following red ones, every “support” is just a pause before the next test.⚠️On the eve of Hynix's earnings report｜Both belong to the storage sector, but SLX and xMU have completely different logics
$SLX 0.051🏭
Solstice splits the wafer fab long-term usage rights into on-chain shares and charges fixed rent quarterly. The rent is locked by long-term contracts and is not affected by short-term fluctuations in chip spot prices.
Slight rebound driven by expectations for Hynix's earnings, but essentially it is a rent-collecting asset, not a bet on the chip cycle. Liquidity is only over 4 million USD, the market is thin, and large orders can easily cause drastic fluctuations. The layout focuses on long-term rental income, do not apply memory spot trading logic.
$BTC 80580 📊
After falling below 81000, it has been consolidating at 80580 for two days. On-chain funds show obvious divergence: long-term whales withdraw 770 million BTC from market makers to hoard coins, early investors transfer to exchanges preparing to sell.
FOMC is tomorrow early morning, the market expects an 84.5% chance of no rate change, with focus on Powell's speech tone. If the 80000 support breaks, look to 78000; if it holds, a rebound to 82000 is possible. Currently, heavy bets on direction are not recommended.
$xMU 888 🧠
Micron is fully tied to the memory spot cycle, completely opposite to SLX's rent-collecting logic. Main business is DRAM, HBM continuously entering the AI server supply chain, prices fluctuate with memory spot.
After Hynix's earnings are released, cross-comparing inventories and HBM4 orders of various manufacturers, market divergence will gradually converge.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $CL #中东原油运输恢复, why do oil prices remain high? With my tiny ant-sized position, tonight I only dare to watch the ZEC action 😏
First, let me set the scene: I'm just an ant-sized holder, with little money and even less courage, unable to withstand big swings. So tonight, I won't pretend to be a whale; I'll just share the most obvious observation. Watching others' excitement is better than losing money myself.
On the ZEC side, institutional money has been flowing in for several consecutive days, getting denser as the weekend approaches. This is the exact opposite of what's happening with ETH, where money is pulling out. This contrast is the only reason I'm focusing on ZEC tonight—not because it has risen a lot, but because someone is continuously betting on it, and the three major mainstream coins haven't received this kind of attention yet 👀.
But a word of caution upfront: in the past few weeks, more money flowed out of ZEC, and this week only a small portion has flowed back in—far from a full recovery. I won't write any big reversal stories; ant-sized holders like me fear mistaking a partial rebound for a full reversal.
Adding a mid-term hook: its upgrade is expected to activate around early November, speeding up block production, shortening confirmation wait times, and removing some fees from circulation. This isn't urgent; I have time to watch. I treat the upgrade as a long-term bonus, not a reason to bet tonight.
So my stance is simple: watch ZEC but don't chase it. The three major coins continue to grind; I won't move my position. I'll wait for the trend to reveal itself. That's how an ant-sized holder lives—no shame 😌. As for the three majors: BTC is sideways, ETH is sluggish, SOL tried but lacked volume. Money isn't concentrating on them. I have even less reason to squeeze in now. I'll wait for the excitement to turn into a trend. Until then, hands in pockets, no reaching out.#Can Robinhood's trading business growth continue?
Short-term trading growth is expected to continue. In August 2026, stock trading volume increased by 68% year-over-year, options grew by 50%, and market trading volume is forecasted to grow about 15 times, but cryptocurrency trading volume declined by 38% year-over-year. Diversified business is reducing dependence on the crypto market, with sustainability still depending on market activity, user growth, and profitability.Before the Hynix earnings report, the two tokens in the storage sector are actually talking about two different things
$SLX Solstice breaks down the long-term usage rights of real-world wafer fabs into on-chain shares, renting out 0.051 shares quarterly. The key difference: the rent is locked in by a long-term contract and does not fluctuate daily with chip spot prices. Today, with the SK Hynix earnings report imminent, sentiment in the storage sector has picked up, and SLX has bounced a bit, but its essence is a rent-collecting asset, not a spot cycle speculation. The trading volume is only a little over 4 million USD, liquidity is thin, and a few large orders can sway it. Buyers are aiming for long-term rent, so don’t apply the logic of memory price fluctuations to it.
$BTC 80,580, Bitcoin is waiting for tomorrow’s early morning decision 📊 After breaking 81,000, it hovered around 80,580 for two days. On-chain long-term holders have withdrawn 770 million BTC from market makers to hold themselves, while early investors are depositing coins to exchanges preparing to sell. Tomorrow morning is the FOMC meeting, with an 84.5% probability of no change; the key is Powell’s press conference. If 80,000 doesn’t hold, look for 78,000; if it holds, it will return to 82,000. Don’t bet on direction now.
$xMU 888, Micron is directly tied to the spot cycle 🧠 Completely opposite to SLX’s rent-collecting logic, Micron makes DRAM, and HBM is targeted at AI server customers. The 888 price moves with memory spot prices. After the Hynix earnings report, inventory and HBM4 orders among manufacturers need to be compared to see if divergences will converge.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ The key question is not whether the Fed pauses rate hikes, but how Powell explains the policy path afterward. With inflation still elevated and the economy showing resilience, the market needs clarity on how long interest rates may remain restrictive. If the Fed continues emphasizing inflation risks and Powell offers no clear timeline for rate cuts, a pause could be interpreted as “higher for longer”—not automatically bullish for BTC. On the other hand, signs of easing inflation and growing empl油价一跌就喊牛回，这个直觉可能正好反着用 如果海峡真的开了，市场会先买风险偏好还是先卖预期？ 这两天看盘有种很微妙的感觉，油价往下走，BTC 跟着弹了一下，群里立刻有人开始算今年十万的路径。我理解这种心情，但这里有个容易误判的点：油价跌带来的不是"利好落地"，而是"压力暂时松开"，这两件事在交易上完全不是一个量级。 先把事实摆清楚。BTC 小跌之后回抽，油价回落，风险资产同步喘了口气。表面看是联动，实际上市场在交易的是同一件事——对能源通道的担忧被短暂移出定价。问题在于，这种移出是预期层面的，不是现实层面的。如果海峡通行真的恢复，那才是叙事切换；现在只是把最坏情形往后推了推。 我的理解是，情绪修复的节奏比价格修复快，这才是需要留意的地方。油价下行确实能松一松通胀端的紧绷感，让风险偏好有扩散的空间，BTC 作为高 beta 的风险表达会先受益，ETH 因为波动更大，弹性会更明显，山寨层面的情绪也会跟着回暖一点。但反过来看，如果通道问题只是被推迟而没被解决，那这波回抽更像情绪脉冲，而不是趋势起点。被提前计价的是"缓和"，没被计价的是"反复"。 - 动能信号：油价回落带动风险资产回抽，BTC#三星Q3利润预增近8倍，完整财报即将揭晓 Little Sweet Melon has something to say
Samsung will release its full Q3 earnings report on October 29. Preliminary results showed operating profit surged nearly 8 times year-on-year. AI storage demand is heating up, with HBM4 shipments and memory chip prices being the core focus.
But my view is: no matter how high the profits are, beware of "all the good news being priced in." Two comments in the discussion section are very key. First, Samsung's profits hit a record high but its stock price fell instead; foreign investors are reducing holdings and buybacks are ending, retail investors are moving to US stocks, and Korean stocks have lost net buyers — this indicates the buying structure is deteriorating and foreign capital is withdrawing. Second, SK Hynix's HBM4 backend equipment orders have been postponed to next year, and expansion is slower than expected — this means the AI storage capacity bottleneck remains; the short-term shortage logic hasn't broken, but once expansion comes in the long term, prices will need to be re-evaluated.
Today Samsung is up 2.02% pre-market, betting on earnings beating expectations. Your previous long position on SK Hynix at 1250 was also based on this logic. But remember: when earnings are realized, it's often when short-term funds take profits. If there are profits above, reduce positions in batches and always maintain your stop-loss.
BTC had a waterfall drop last night and now we see if the 80,000 level can hold. If it doesn't hold, expect a deeper pullback, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Don't chase the rise or sell in panic; set your stop-loss orders well.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set your stop-loss orders. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEN Spring river water warms $ZEC prophet
BTC won't hold on for long, feels like 80,000 is a bull trap!
The sentiment reversal usually sees zec move first; I've observed this pattern for a long time. Everyone can take this as a reference. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $SOXS This 25x short position has a floating profit of 285%, capitalizing on the emotional downturn and profit-taking after the high-level double top.
Looking back at the 1-hour chart, the previous surge to 56.07 didn't break through, followed by sideways consolidation, forming a vague double top. I opened at 53.32; at that time, selling pressure was already heavy, price rallies were weak, and moving averages started to flatten and press down. As a 3x leveraged semiconductor short ETF, it inherently has high volatility. Once the underlying sector's sentiment cools off, this kind of instrument drops sharply without hesitation.
The current mark price is 47.24. Calculated from the entry price, this decline has been smooth. On the chart, the VWAP (around 50.13) firmly suppresses the price from above, which has been steadily declining along short-term moving averages with almost no decent rebounds. The high short ratio indicates that high-level chips are still being realized, capital divergence is turning downward, and bulls are weak in support.
The logic behind this trade is straightforward: confirmed high-level resistance + waning upward momentum + capital withdrawal. The 25x leverage is large, but the structure is clear, so I dare to hold. The recent low at 46.55 is the support; if broken, look toward the 42.75 starting zone. If it rebounds, as long as it doesn't surpass the VWAP, the short logic remains unchanged.strategy's market cap surpasses Nasdaq to enter the global top 400. MicroStrategy stopped buying coins, are you worried?
Brothers, I took a quick look at MSTR pre-market; its market cap just surpassed Nasdaq, squeezing into the global top 400. Logically, Seller should be ringing the bell and continuing to buy. But what happened? Last week and this week, no buying at all.
Don't rush to shout "BTC is too expensive to buy."
The truth lies in the capital flow: in the same week, MSTR spent $193 million to repurchase its own STRC preferred shares, while only $22 million was spent on buying coins. The money spent hasn't decreased, but the direction has changed.
It's not that the coins are expensive, but the preferred stock dividends are almost eating through the cash flow. That STRC thing pays a 12% annual dividend; the more they pay, the more the dollar interest pressure suffocates.
What Seller is doing now is buying back high-interest debt first to reduce future fixed expenses, rather than continuing to pour money into coins.
Looking at the pre-market situation again: BTC has already dropped below 80,000 today, hovering around 80,200, with risk-off sentiment maxed out before the FOMC. MSTR is pre-market around 141.6, having closed down just over 3% yesterday.
This trend shows the market is also calculating: your market cap is propped up by coins, coins are falling, and you’re not adding positions, so what supports the premium? $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ FOMC Countdown: $BTC Charging to 84,000, Don't Just Focus on "Pause or Not" 📉📈
Pause is largely a consensus; the real variable lies in Powell's wording. If he downplays rate cuts and emphasizes inflation resilience, risk assets could face short-term pressure again; if his tone is neutral to dovish, BTC will have a window to rally.
"Pause" is not a free pass; even good news can turn into selling pressure. First, watch two things: whether funds continue to flow back and if the resistance near 84,000 can be broken with volume. Without volume support, the rally looks more like a test.
My judgment: It will be difficult to hold above 84,000 this time unless Powell softens his stance and funds strengthen simultaneously; otherwise, a wide-range consolidation is more likely. 🚀🧐
Do you think BTC will fake a breakout first or push straight through 84,000? #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 📦 Waiting for SK Hynix earnings report! Three storage targets, completely different underlying logic
$SLX 0.0518 🏭
Rental model, price movement independent of chip spot market. Solstice splits wafer fab long-term usage rights into on-chain shares, with quarterly rent contracts locked, unaffected by short-term spot fluctuations. Slight rebound today with sector news, but liquidity is thin, large orders can cause sharp swings. For this target, focus on long-term rental income, do not apply chip cycle logic.
$SNDK 1235 💾
SanDisk focuses on NAND flash. AI servers drive demand for large-capacity flash, NAND and enterprise SSDs are in an uptrend. Prices adjust with sector sentiment, but demand fundamentals remain intact. Awaiting SK Hynix Q3 earnings, HBM4 is the key observation point.
$xMU 886 🧠
Micron tied to DRAM spot cycle, opposite logic to SLX. Focused on DRAM and HBM for AI servers, market closely follows memory spot prices. Waiting for Hynix earnings, cross-comparing inventory, orders, and HBM4 deployment progress among manufacturers.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Retail investors are moving coins to exchanges, while whales are actually pulling back
In the same dataset, retail investors and whales are moving in two different directions.
According to CryptoQuant data, in the past 30 days, retail investors' $BTC deposits to Binance have nearly doubled: from $5.5 billion in April to $10.75 billion, hitting a 6-month high; meanwhile, whale deposits have dropped from $5.9 billion in August to $3.8 billion, a 36% decrease. Retail deposit volume is now 2.8 times that of whales.
Interpretation requires caution: depositing coins does not equal selling, and the data only covers Binance. But the direction is clear—retail investors seem to be using the rebound to find an exit, while whale selling pressure is actually easing.
Current price is about $80,100 (Beijing time 02:50). At the $80,000 level, retail investors want to exit, whales don’t want to sell, so it all depends on whether the FOMC early Thursday morning gives a direction.$XRP here, whales are selling while ETFs are buying. So, who should you listen to? On the whale side, wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million tokens are shrinking. The number dropped from 351 to 339 in one month. Meanwhile, the amount of $XRP on exchanges actually increased by about 47 million tokens. This is just a distribution signal, not conclusive evidence.
On the ETF side, the trend is completely opposite. Last week, $XRP ETFs had a net inflow of about $4.26 million, reversing the previous week's outflow of about $1.84 million. On Thursday alone, about $3.55 million flowed in, marking the strongest day since October 8. The cumulative net inflow remains around $1.8 billion. One side shrinks while the other buys; that's how the tug-of-war happens.
The number of wallets is actually still hitting new highs. There are about 8.24 million wallets with balances on-chain. More wallets do not necessarily mean more buying pressure, so this distinction is important. The price is currently hugging the lower boundary of the $1.26 channel. If it holds, the next targets are $1.40 and then $1.50. If it doesn't hold, look first at $1.11, then $0.98. From $1.26, that's about a 22% drop. This is just a reference, not a prediction.
Ripple's Swell conference starts today and runs until the 29th. Topics include payments, stablecoins, and tokenization. Whether there will be institutional partnership announcements at the conference is not yet confirmed. We can't treat it as a positive catalyst in advance. So, I characterize this as a tug-of-war, not a directional signal. First watch $1.26, then see if Swell brings anything new.Brothers, SpaceX's $40 billion GPU financing play is not just simple "burning money" 🔥
First, this is an off-balance-sheet leveraged financial engineering show. SpaceX didn't put the $40 billion debt directly on the balance sheet but isolated the debt outside the consolidated balance sheet through an SPV structure and 144A private placement bonds, preserving its investment-grade rating. The confidence comes from the real cash flow of Starlink and rocket launches—the creditors trust these two legs, not the AI story.
Second, Musk is playing the game of locking in his own computing power with other people's money. About $10 billion in bank loans secure short-term delivery, and $30 billion in investment-grade bonds lock in long-term capacity quotas. SpaceX's AI division was already profitable in Q3, with computing power rental income exceeding Starlink's, split 50% for internal use and 50% external sales, with a payback period of less than a year. It's not betting on AI; it's selling shovels.
Third, while raising funds, Musk is shorting his peers. He publicly warned that over 200 "new cloud vendors" will collapse massively, and SpaceX will not acquire any of them. Translated, this means: I have Starlink as a backstop and an investment-grade rating to get cheap money; you don't—when the bubble clears, I survive, you get out.
As for Nvidia? $40 billion is just the tip of the iceberg. Goldman Sachs expects the top five giants to invest a total of $800 billion in AI infrastructure this year; the GPU seller's market is far from peaking. 🚀#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $301 million, ending two consecutive weeks of net outflows. But the internal structure was very volatile: the first three days saw a massive inflow of $1.08 billion, then in the last two days, as BTC dropped back near 80,000, $774 million was immediately withdrawn. Money came in and went out like a pendulum.
This shows that ETF funds are not the "smart money" supporting the bottom, but rather pro-cyclical price followers. Historical data proves that during major BTC drops, ETFs often experience net outflows. BlackRock IBIT alone contributed 64% of the single-day outflow, and such high concentration amplified the volatility.
The real stabilization signal is not in the ETF weekly report, but in the price itself. 80,000 is a key psychological level, with strong support at 78,000 and resistance at 86,000. Currently, bulls and bears are battling in the narrow range between 79,300 and 81,000.
This week’s FOMC, PCE, and tech giant earnings reports are the real switches that will decide the direction. Before the data comes out, don’t be led by the daily ETF data.
What’s your take? Let’s discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $HOOD arrives at the Q3 report with tailwinds after a solid Q2 ($1.31B in revenue) and a massive surge in trading volume and crypto innovation. Tomorrow we will find out if the numbers support surpassing Wall Street's expectations.
The bar is high: expected revenue of ~$1.41B and GAAP EPS of $0.56. Although the stock/crypto business and Gold subscribers are soaring, the key will be whether the net margin manages to exceed the strict accounting threshold. YES or NO? 🤔
#HOODQ3TradingGrowth Thesis: crypto's next leg may be about plumbing, not price. Bitcoin ETF inflows have cooled in 2026 while stablecoin supply keeps growing (~$305B). Capital may favor usage-driven assets: $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $TRX, $XRP, $LINK, $AAVE, $ENA, $ONDO, $HYPE. Risks: stablecoin de-pegs, shrinking supply in risk-off periods, and token unlocks. Not financial advice.
Do you agree infrastructure, not ETF-driven Bitcoin demand, will lead the next phase?$MU vs $SNDK : Same Sector, Different Bets
Both are attracting serious short interest, but I see two very different situations here.
MU looks relatively balanced. Neither side is under much pressure, and I don't see a strong reason to expect a squeeze yet.
SNDK is more interesting. Shorts are sitting on substantial profits, which makes me cautious about chasing the downside. If they start taking profits, that buying could help fuel a rebound. $AAVE
Deposits hit an all-time high, yet the token price is moving downward; these two data points are from the same day.
Aave V4 deposits just surpassed $1.5 billion, a historical peak. At the same time, AAVE was priced at $135, down nearly 2% in 24 hours, having fallen 3 points from the daily high of $138.76.
Short-term decoupling between TVL and token price is not unusual. More deposits mean money is staying in the protocol, not necessarily new inflows; it could also mean people have withdrawn positions and are waiting for volatility.
I usually treat this indicator as a thermometer for DeFi, but this time the thermometer's direction is opposite to the candlestick chart.
How long this divergence can last is the key point. Deposits keep rising while price ignores it, indicating the market's pricing logic for DeFi has changed; if the price moves first, it usually means someone has sensed something in advance.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #AWS算力需求旺盛，亚马逊Q3财报有哪些看点？
Amazon is set to release its Q3 earnings report on October 29. According to the forecast market in the image, 72% of the funds are betting on it exceeding expectations, and those expectations are almost overflowing.
Let's first look at the fundamentals. CEO Jassy stated that AWS's compute capacity for 2026 is already fully sold out, most of 2027 is booked, and even 2028 is being snapped up. Just from this, the demand for AI compute power is indeed scorching hot, practically a money printing machine.
But don't get too excited yet; there are big risks hidden underneath. The more compute power you sell, the more you have to invest heavily in buying cards and expanding data centers. Once these high capital expenditures are made, profit margins and free cash flow will definitely be severely squeezed. Wall Street nowadays doesn't care how fast your revenue grows; it only cares whether your spending is worthwhile. The disastrous earnings reports from Meta and Tesla are bloody lessons—market patience for AI stories that just burn cash without returns has run out.
If Amazon also delivers a report of "revenue exceeding expectations, but capital expenditures terrifyingly high, and free cash flow turning negative," there will likely be another massacre after hours.
This matter directly impacts our broader market. Tech giants like Amazon and Microsoft are global risk appetite barometers. If they get hit because of burning cash, the Nasdaq will definitely plunge, and the fragile support BTC has at the 80,000 level could be broken at any time due to liquidity being drained.
$AMZN $xAMZN $BTC
Citibank just cut Bitcoin's 12-month target price to $82,000. I stared at this news for a while, not because of the price cut itself.
Within the same 24 hours, Strive spent $511.4 million to buy 6,182 BTC, at an average price of about $82,700, which is even higher than the current price. The largest single purchase in history, bought at a level where no one else dared to reach.
Over the weekend, as tensions in the Middle East escalated, the price dipped to a low of 79,377, breaking the $80,000 mark for real. Now it’s hovering around 80,200, down 0.5% in 24 hours.
MSTR is even more interesting; they paused buying coins and turned around to repurchase $204.9 million of their own STRC preferred shares. After hoarding coins to the limit, they’re starting to play with capital structure.
On the derivatives side, the funding rate is only 0.01%, so the bulls aren’t cornered. Whales are accumulating, while ETFs still show net outflows over 30 days. For both, I see the bets going to the side that’s collecting.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The market is a bit twisted 😅 Three major coins are all in the red, but the declines are not large, the biggest being only 1.11%. However, the long-short ratio is all above 2.2, creating a sense of crowding.
$BTC current price is 80236, slightly down less than 0.5%, long-short ratio 2.21, open interest 2.488 billion. Among the top 100 largest liquidations, shorts were forced out by 770,000, longs zero. Repeated grinding above 80,000, the issue is not the drop, but that the bulls are too densely packed 🤔
$ETH fell the most noticeably, -1.11%, but shorts suffered the most: among the top 100 largest liquidations, short positions liquidated 1.55 million, longs again zero. Biggest drop and shorts getting hit, this signal is quite intriguing 👀
$SOL has the highest long-short ratio at 2.88, open interest 315 million; this time both sides had liquidations, longs 210,000, shorts 50,000, both under pressure.
Summary: limited decline, crowded bulls, shorts actually liquidated more, surface calm but both sides are tense 😶 At this position, I neither chase nor panic, just wait for volume to speak 📊The FOMC is about to announce the interest rate decision, with the market betting nearly 90% on no change. The real test for BTC might still be ahead.
The Federal Reserve will hold its rate meeting from October 27 to 28.
Currently, the market expects about an 88% chance that rates will remain unchanged.
The current rate range is 3.75% to 4%.
It seems there is not much suspense about this decision.
But I think the real focus is not whether there will be a rate hike this time,
but what the Fed plans to do next,
because inflationary pressure in the U.S. still exists~
plus high energy prices and AI-driven economic demand.
The market is no longer worried about whether rate cuts will be delayed,
but whether there might be another rate hike in December!!
This is actually quite important for BTC and ETH.
If the Fed keeps rates unchanged,
but the chair's remarks signal a stronger rate hike,
the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may strengthen again,
which would put pressure on the crypto market.
Conversely, if inflation risks start to ease,
market expectations for future rate hikes may also decline.
So I believe the real focus of this FOMC is the future policy direction.
Do you think this meeting will bring a rebound after the bad news is fully priced in,
or will it bring another wave of volatility for BTC!
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Today's summary:
1. Yesterday I chased QNT at a high price of 200 and took a loss to exit. Today it surged 20 points, which impressed me. Personally, I prefer trading impulse uptrends. For targets with a 10% increase, I directly chase longs. For healthy rising altcoins like QNT and CHIP, I am not very familiar with traditional institutional narratives or RWA narratives. Healthy uptrends usually require waiting for stabilization before buying, which aligns logically with the wave system itself. Impulse types mainly rely on long signals, entering the observation zone from a 10% increase, waiting for the right moment to buy, while also considering the overall market temperature and narrative background to decide whether to trade.
2. After the BTW event on Binance ended, the recent chart has been very chaotic. After waiting a long time, I caught a big 10x surge, but obviously it’s not easy to trade.
3. Going forward, keep an eye on CHIP.
$QUANT $CHIP $BTW Monday's #Bitcoin ETF data has not yet been updated. Looking solely at the market, the trend is not that good. While the US stock market is rising, #BTC has repeatedly tested support near 80,000, which may not necessarily be a good sign.
Some friends think that frequent tests of the 80,000 support followed by rebounds prove there are buy orders here, which is positive. However, from another perspective, if the price continuously tests the support, the selling pressure and turnover of buy orders will keep consuming it, potentially weakening the strength of this support.
Moreover, although the rebound near 80,000 on the hourly level is strong, it encounters selling pressure when hitting the 1-hour Bollinger Bands resistance, indicating the confidence range is not strong.
Most importantly, the 1-hour Bollinger Bands are in a downward trend. According to the current trend, price rebounds will only get lower and lower. The 80,000 support will continuously bear selling pressure. If this situation persists multiple times, it is very likely to completely exhaust the support strength near 80,000.
Regarding crypto market data, the main focus is on capital flows. Compared to last Saturday, the crypto market saw a net outflow of 900 million, including 240 million USDT, with USDT net outflow at 438 million. The capital flow outlook is not optimistic.
Currently, for $BTC and crypto market data, the only missing piece is ETF data. Both market trends and data flows are not very optimistic. There is indeed a need to be cautious about the risk of a continued pullback below 80,000. If Monday's ETF data tomorrow still shows net outflow, it will prove that the capital inflow from Monday to Wednesday last week was only a short-term bottom fishing, and institutional users still lack confidence. Therefore, the overall optimism toward the market should be reduced.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ 2300。核心原因还是美债收益率上行、降息预期延后，再加上现货ETF持续净流出。周末流动性本来就差，关键点位一破，杠杆连环清算加速了抛售。 短期内很难出现强力反转，大概率还是以震荡筑底、磨底为主。如果美联储释放中性信号，加上抛压缓解，可能会有超跌反弹，但上方的重压大多是空头回补，反弹不等于反转。要是再放出鹰派信号，下方依然还有空间。 接下来重点盯美联储FOMC决议、ETF资金流向和美债走势。现在属于高波动的震荡区间，不适合重仓和加杠杆，短线一定要带止损，长线也别想着一次性抄到底。The liquidation structure of $CORE is quite interesting — out of a total liquidation volume of 54.09 million U in 24 hours, long positions accounted for 53.06 million U, while short positions were only 1.02 million U. It's almost a one-sided sweep of the longs, with not even a decent hit on the shorts. The data from 1 hour to 12 hours is even more extreme, with shorts consistently at zero.
$BTC and $ETH are also washing out longs, but the ratio is not as exaggerated. $BTC had a total liquidation of 36.11 million U in 24 hours, with longs at 24.93 million U and shorts at 11.17 million U; $ETH had a total liquidation of 39.69 million U in 24 hours, with longs at 27.44 million U and shorts at 12.25 million U. The long-short ratio is roughly 70 to 30.
However, the time distribution is interesting — in $BTC liquidations over 1 hour and 4 hours, shorts actually dominate, at 221.7k U and 2.9831 million U respectively, while longs were barely liquidated in these short periods. This indicates that the washout mainly occurred in earlier periods, with 16.01 million U of longs liquidated within 12 hours, more than twice the shorts.
Mainstream coins collectively liquidated longs, with $CORE almost purely slaughtering longs. Under this structure, market sentiment may not have fully released yet. Last night I predicted that technology would undergo a correction today, and the trend indeed followed that. The dog traders' shakeout was too harsh, sweeping back and forth, but fortunately, I wasn't shaken out of my position.
Tomorrow's gains probably won't be as big as today's; funds are still waiting for news. Waiting for what?
1. Federal Reserve interest rate moves
Although the market generally predicts about a 90% chance of no rate hike, the decisive factor hasn't been settled yet, so sentiment remains cautious, waiting quietly for the outcome.
2. Geopolitical conflict situation (oil prices)
Yesterday, oil prices stayed high; after finally dropping a bit, they bounced back again, fluctuating back and forth. Market inflation expectations remain elevated.
3. Midterm elections
These good things might just be what they want you to see. After the elections, whether they shift from dovish to hawkish and slap you in the face is uncertain.
If in October it is confirmed that there will be no rate hike and things remain unchanged, combined with earnings reports eliminating "unreliable" companies, what remains will be the sought-after safe havens. These companies will steadily rise 📈 while others will sink.
Long-term optimistic on Tesla, SpaceX; recommend buying spot on dips, avoid contract leverage due to high volatility and stop-loss sweeps back and forth.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $TSLA $SPCX $AMD $ZEC no impact, and leverage basically remains in the market. There were 95 long liquidations, all small scattered orders; only 27 short liquidations, so the shorts held strong. The price is moving sideways, but open interest exceeds daily trading volume, indicating no new money is coming in. Once the remaining longs see a break below the previous low, stop losses will likely trigger a concentrated sell-off. The largest volume bar on the chart appeared on a bullish candle, indicating some buyeBitcoin has a repeatedly cited "pattern": it often falls after midterm elections. But most people overlook a key point—the bottom of past cycles was only reached after the midterm elections. The decline and the election are correlated, not causal.
This time, Bitcoin has already reached the cycle bottom, so the "post-election drop" script may not play out again. A more likely scenario is that the bottom appeared before the midterm elections, causing those waiting to buy the dip after a crash to miss out. This situation occurred once near the bottom of the previous cycle and may happen again now. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Term Structure Radar
$BTC marked positive spread with a significant shrinkage in the best bid-ask spread. Near-month annualized +20.8%, far-month annualized +5.92%, near end is more expensive; marked near-far spread +2.23%, best bid-ask spread for buy near sell far +0.97%. Marked looks good, best bid-ask generally.
$ETH best bid-ask positive spread corresponds to a very small scale. Buy near sell far bid-ask spread +0.76%, best bid-ask pair scale about $991; at a scale of 10,000, this only covers about 10%. The smaller the capacity, the higher the impact ratio.
$SOL marked spread is positive, but the best bid-ask for buy near sell far is inverted. Near-month annualized +10.16%, far-month annualized +0.5%, near end is more expensive; marked near-far spread +0.11%, best bid-ask spread for buy near sell far -1.13%. The executable direction is opposite to the marked one.This weekend was exhausting 😮💨. BTC 80350, ETH 2334, SOL 100.75, all seem to be rebounding, but the space to act is really limited. Chasing risks a pullback, waiting risks missing the rally.
Still bullish on BTC, but 80300 isn't attractive. The 15-minute 20 MA is hovering around 80330, with resistance at 80530. Tonight, waiting for a sweep near 80000, will buy after the dip and recovery; exit if 79800 breaks; reduce at 80500, watch 80800/81000 for remaining positions. Yesterday's long wick at 79168 still hurts, don't catch the rebound only to get trapped 😅.
ETH is steadier than SOL, supported by the 20 MA at 2330, MACD is upward, but 2350 hasn't been reclaimed. Plan to wait around 2320, admit mistake if below 2308, take profit at 2350; reconsider after 2365, don't jump to conclusions early 📉.
SOL was strong during the day, retreated to around 100 at night. Staking weight and oracle are just concepts, not chasing news. Wait for a pullback below 100 and recovery before buying again, stop loss at 99.4, reduce at 101. Most afraid of buying all three coins at once, then not knowing which to cut first if they drop. Wait for BTC's move first, don't get itchy and move orders around 🙏.Coinbase上$HYPE一度插针至72，而当时市场价还在75附近，74和73的阶梯买单被一次性扫走——这25%的深度回调，恰恰是强势币种最典型的"洗盘区间"。真正值得讨论的不是这一针，而是：当全市场都在等"更低的6字头"时，Hyperliquid的基本面正在悄悄脱离价格叙事。 先看一个被严重低估的数字：全球永续合约一年成交约9.3万亿美元，Hyperliquid只占约3%。这不是"已经赢了的DEX"，而是一个刚拿到入场券的挑战者，且它主攻的是非托管赛道——这块市场的天花板远未被定价。💡 更反直觉的是估值对比：$HYPE流通市值约190亿美元，而$CRCL约176亿美元，但前者的盈利能力并不逊色。换句话说，市场给一个链上衍生品协议和一家稳定币巨头的定价几乎持平，却很少有人认真拆解两者的增长曲线差异。200亿美元以下被视为可以安心建仓的区间，能拿到400亿是保本离场，拿不到就等本轮周期顶部再追加——这套分层思路本身就说明，持有者把$HYPE当成"股权"而非"筹码"。 这正是我认为市场低估的核心：持币≈持股的逻辑，在$HYPE身上体现得比绝大多数代币更彻底。回购、销毁、费用回流，持有者热闹是假的，疲惫是真的 你有没有过那种感觉：群里还在刷屏，自己却连点开的力气都没有了？ 这两天看板块强弱，表面挺分裂的。BTC 和 ETH 还撑着台面，山寨里偶尔冒出几个拉得很急的标的，但追进去的人明显变少了。热度没消失，只是变成了"看看就好"的那种热度。我自己也有点这种状态，不是不想动，是动之前会多犹豫几秒。✨ 原文那位作者讲的是从自信到被磨平的过程，我读完其实想到的不是某个人，而是现在整个市场的表情。5月19号那种抄底成功，回头看更像运气站在了那一边，而不是方法真的成立。这种正反馈最容易让人加仓、加杠杆、加风险，然后在下一段行情里被慢慢收走。市场不会因为你过去做对过就继续奖励你。 从板块强弱看，现在真正被交易的其实是"谁还能撑住注意力"。主流币有资金托着，跌不深也涨不快；山寨的反弹更像短线情绪的释放，持续性要打个问号。叙事疲劳很明显，新故事讲不动，老故事又没人想再听一遍。这种时候人群心理是分裂的：一边怕错过，一边又怕接最后一棒，FOMO 和犹豫同时存在。 偏多的路径也不是没有。如果 BTC 能在关键位置稳住，ETH 跟上，山寨出现放量而不是脉冲，那风险偏好是有机会慢慢回来的，节奏会Tuesday Market Watch | Calm Before the Fed Decision
$BTC — $80,450 | Holding the $80K Line 📊
After slipping below $81K, Bitcoin has stabilized around $80,450. Markets are pricing in an 84.5% chance of unchanged rates. A pause could trigger a modest bounce, but much of that expectation may already be priced in. $80K remains the key level to watch, while a stronger breakout needs fresh bullish catalysts.
$ENA — $0.206 | Rally Pauses 🚀
#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Binance ETH perpetual contracts, with a liquidation price of 2355.19. The liquidation record shows forced liquidations that have already been triggered, not new funds entering with the same amount. Long liquidations result in passive selling, while short liquidations require buying back; looking only at the total amount mixes these two opposite trades together. After a round of liquidations, the market may either slow down or continue to amplify under thin liquidity. The difference lies in whethAnalysis of why STRK's promising anti-quantum long-term vision is heavily pressured by monthly unlocks of 127 million tokens, making it difficult to reverse the ongoing sell-off and downtrend in the short term
1. The long-term narrative cannot withstand the current continuous physical token sell pressure; expectations and cash flow are severely mismatched
The anti-quantum independent L1 is a long-term blueprint still in the research, governance voting stage; the mainnet, full post-quantum cryptography system, and mature ecosystem have not yet been realized, representing a long-term valuation premium.
However, the sell pressure is immediate and rigidly realized monthly: 127 million tokens are released every month for six consecutive months, belonging to early investors and contributors who acquired them at very low cost.
Market rules dictate that long-term narratives can only trigger short-term impulse rebounds but cannot continuously absorb the ongoing spot sell pressure. Positive news causes a spike, immediately followed by unlock-related sell-offs, creating a cycle of “positive spike → unlock dump → new lows.” The beautiful vision is a story for years later; selling tokens is a real action happening now.
2. The token economy lacks a rigid bottom-support mechanism and has no sustained buy-side to hedge unlock supply
STRK has no fixed fee buyback or burn mechanism; network revenue is primarily used to pay sequencers and Ethereum base-layer gas costs, not converted into continuous token buybacks.
Staking lock-up volume is currently very small, insufficient to offset the monthly increase of over 100 million circulating tokens.
Most bullish funds are short-term speculative capital betting on long-term expectations to profit from price differences, not long-term holders locking tokens. Once the rebound weakens, these funds are the first to cut losses and exit, causing the buying power to vanish instantly. Purely relying on faith-based funds cannot withstand the massive monthly outflow of tokens.
3. Unlock expectations have been priced in advance, but the persistence of sell pressure is often underestimated
Many believe that unlock-related negative news is fully priced in and thus harmless, but this is a misconception: a single negative event can be priced in, but six consecutive rounds of rolling releases create a persistent supply dam.
The first unlock round causes the greatest panic; the second round triggers inertia-driven sell-offs; in subsequent rounds, panic diminishes, but the willingness to sell low-cost tokens does not disappear simultaneously. As long as rebounds provide profit opportunities, unlock holders have motivation to cash out.
In other words: panic dulls, but sell pressure does not disappear directly. Each unlock round rigidly suppresses upward rebound space, making a smooth reversal trend difficult.
4. L1 transformation and anti-quantum route inherently carry huge implementation risks; the narrative can be discounted anytime
Transitioning from Ethereum L2 to an independent L1 is not only a technical development challenge but also requires governance voting, developer migration, ecosystem migration, and security model reconstruction; native full-chain post-quantum cryptography transformation is extremely difficult to develop, with risks of delays, plan adjustments, and audit failures.
The long-term vision is not 100% guaranteed to be realized. Capital will continuously discount this long-term expectation. The same anti-quantum story, with repeated unlock sell-offs and TVL declines, will see shrinking valuation premiums and weakening marginal benefits.
5. Token structure is layered with trapped holders; each rebound becomes a multi-layered sell window
From the peak, the price has continuously declined, accumulating a large amount of high-level trapped tokens.
Whenever anti-quantum or L1 positive news triggers a rebound, it simultaneously faces triple sell pressure: low-cost tokens unlocked currently, short-term profit-taking from previous bottom buyers, and trapped holders waiting to break even at high levels.
The concentrated multi-layered sell pressure firmly limits rebound height. Without sufficient incremental long-term capital, each rebound is just a pause in the downtrend, making trend reversal difficult.
6. It is a high-beta thematic coin; the overall market environment amplifies downward pressure
STRK's value narrative heavily depends on crypto market risk appetite. If BTC is weak and the quantum risk narrative remains a long-term expectation without outbreak, capital lacks motivation to actively allocate large-scale funds to the anti-quantum sector.
In a generally weak market with existing competition, capital prioritizes risk aversion and is unwilling to pay a high premium for a technology vision years away. Compared to BTC and ETH, STRK is a niche narrative theme with inherently weaker capital support.
7. Dialectical: When could this situation possibly break?
It won't be suppressed by unlocks forever; substantial changes must occur simultaneously: large unlocked tokens voluntarily staked long-term, L1 + full-chain post-quantum solution audited and launched, ecosystem TVL and protocol revenue continuously growing, and introduction of a normalized buyback and burn mechanism.
Before these hard results are realized, relying solely on a beautiful long-term vision makes it very difficult to counter the monthly continuous release of low-cost tokens; the downtrend is unlikely to reverse in the short term.字资产账面赚了约209亿美元。截至10月18日它手里有848517枚BTC，持仓均价75446美元。 不过那是9月底的账。10月初它还在8.58万上下接货，现在$BTC 回到80200附近，离它的均价只剩6%左右的垫子。最近两周每周只买两三百枚，钱大头拿去回购STRC优先股了，一周MSTR增发才两千来万美元，这点买盘对盘面基本没影响。 财报数字大概率好看，但市场看完更在意的是mNAV还能撑多高、后面有没有钱继续买。现在8万这条线靠的是ETF和合约资金，不是Saylor，指望财报拉一波不太现实。 短线79400是今天低点附近，跌破先减仓。上方80900到81300压着，站不上就别追多。我只开轻仓，止损放79200下面，反弹到81000附近先兑一部分。#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 $BTC #IREN矿企转型AI云服务，GPU交付进展待揭晓 After the U.S. stock market closed on November 5, IREN is set to release its latest financial report. Now, all eyes across the internet are on it: What exactly has it achieved in its shift from Bitcoin mining to AI cloud services? How far along is the delivery of the GPU graphics card clusters it purchased? When will the data center be completed? This financial report is the touchstone to test the quality of its transformation. But looking at the market, the tokenized stocks IREN and xIREN have both dipped about 1%. My personal view is: The prospect looks appealing, but the reality is harsh. The shift to AI cloud services basically means they are dissatisfied with the thinning mining profits and want to tap into the bigger pie of AI computing power. But what's the difficulty? The difficulty lies in the absence of solid "big contracts." Previously, rumors circulated that it had a partnership with Anthropic, which pushed the stock price up, but what happened? It has now fallen back. A community member rightly said, without named big client contracts, it's all just showmanship. Spending your own money to buy expensive GPUs and build data centers is pure cash burn. If capital expenditures run out of control in the financial report and AI cloud revenue doesn't keep pace, then the valuation is seriously overextended. What impact does this have? In the short term, this is an extremely important sentiment indicator. Traditional mining companies are all "defecting" to AI, indicating the computing power market's direction has completely changed. This sentiment will directly transmit to the crypto space, stirring projects involved in decentralized computing power and AI concepts to become restless. But funds are currently extremely tight In 2010, it retraced 72%. In 2014, 65%. In 2018, 52%. In 2022, 27%. What's even more painful is Q4. In three of the past four midterm election years, Q4 posted negative returns — down 16.7% in 2014, 42% in 2018, and 14.75% in 2022. Voting is on November 3rd, less than 10 days away. It's not shameful to be anxious. The data is right here; ignoring it is self-deception. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, the bear market lows all appeared after the election. The lows were 71, 38, and 13 days after election dGenerally, this kind of giant IPO usually starts with hype before the bloodletting. Based on $SPCX's experience, the decline will begin at the latest one week before the IPO.
From SpaceX's S-1 filing (May 20) to pricing (June 11), the early period was hype-driven speculation, and the last week was the squeeze.
The SEC has strict rules for issuers undergoing confidential review: roadshows can only start at least 15 days after the public S-1 filing. Since it was made public on October 26, the earliest roadshow date is November 10.
Mapping this to Anthropic: before November 9 is the hype period; from November 10 to pricing (the week before Thanksgiving) is the bloodletting period, with the peak 3 to 5 trading days before pricing. The midterm elections on November 3 and the roadshow on November 10 are only 4 trading days apart, with the big nonfarm payroll data on November 6 in between. Between this week and the midterm elections, it is more likely to serve as a pricing anchor rather than a bloodletting phase.
At the same time, Anthropic's S-1 is likely positive for this week's Microsoft/Google/Amazon earnings reports. The logic is that Anthropic's expenditures exemplify the necessity of capital spending by cloud providers. The primary funds raised from the IPO will ultimately flow back into the revenues of these three companies and chip manufacturers, so this bloodletting is a drain on the overall market but a transfusion for cloud providers. However, this returns to the paradoxical "left foot stepping on right foot" spiral ascent of the cloud ladder model, raising the question of whether the market can still (pretend to) accept it.$HOOD's Q3 trading growth is indeed quite strong. The revenue structure is more diversified with Gold subscriptions, interest income, and event contracts, rather than relying solely on trading volume. I tend to believe it can exceed profit expectations, but the trouble is that the stock price has already priced in the good expectations. At this position before the earnings report, if I had a position, I would be more conflicted: hold on betting on the guidance, or wait and see for the actual numbers. My feeling is that if it were really going to exceed expectations, the market might have already moved; conversely, if the guidance is slightly worse, profit-taking would be very direct. So don't just focus on "whether it can exceed" this point, but look at how management explains the next quarter after exceeding. For now, I tend to wait and see, and make a decision after the earnings report comes out, not rushing to bet on the direction in these two days. On October 22, the Hong Kong government listed 18 companies on the OASES "Strategic Enterprises" list. Solana Company (Nasdaq HSDT) is the only blockchain infrastructure company among them, and on the same day announced the establishment of its Asia-Pacific headquarters in Hong Kong and the operation of Solana validator nodes.
The number related to wallets is its vault: 2,064,068 SOL (SEC filing as of 6/30), approximately $209 million; mNAV 0.65x, with the stock price only about 60% of net asset value. $209 million is only 0.35% of the $SOL market cap of $59.7 billion.
After the news, $SOL was at 101.3, 24h -0.5%, 30 days -16.6%, almost unchanged.
Who is buying? OKX perpetual 24h volume is 7.44 million tokens, about $754 million, spot only 53 million; contracts are 14 times the spot; open interest 315 million; funding rate +0.01%/8h with longs paying, perpetual discount 0.03%. Price unchanged, longs paying, contracts cheaper than spot—this is not institutions building positions, but leveraged traders holding ground.
The policy provides a channel, not a buying force. The money hoarding tokens ultimately depends on $SOL's own price. Which of the companies on this list do you think will truly turn into buy orders for SOL? "Three Thunderstrikes Together: FOMC, PCE, $11 Billion Options Settlement"
Core Judgment: $BTC and $ETH are tugging back and forth; the short-term direction this week depends on the concentrated pricing of these three events.
First, the FOMC decision and press conference on October 29. A hold is widely expected, with CME pricing about 91%. The key is not "whether to hike," but how the Chair describes the December path—the market has priced in nearly an 80% chance of a December hike, and a hawkish confirmation will raise real rates and suppress risk assets. Wintermute warns: implied volatility is low, so volatility around the decision may be underestimated.
Second, immediately after the FOMC come the PCE and Q3 GDP. September's PCE is the Fed's true inflation anchor; if core PCE continues to cool to 3.0%, it's tailwind for BTC; if stickiness exceeds expectations, "higher for longer" will directly limit rebound space.
Third, on October 30, about $11 billion in BTC options monthly settlement. Deribit nominal is about $10.97 billion; call contracts are roughly twice the number of puts, but nominal size does not equal directional clarity; market makers' hedging around expiration will amplify short-term volatility, with $83,000–$85,000 as the focal point of the game.
With these three events packed together, move less before direction is clear; don't mistake volatility for trend.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？