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【No gold or BTC in 2026, with just two months left, can they still have a final dance?】
As of October 23 this year, within the market, $BTC has dropped 7.3% year-to-date, and gold $XAU has fallen 7.5%, ranking last two among 21 major asset classes. Last year, gold rose 63.7%, but this year it has retraced steadily from the high at the beginning of the year, breaking below $4,000 on October 23; BTC has also retreated about 35% from last year's peak of $126,000.
The safe-haven label does not guarantee price increases. Rising oil prices have intensified inflation concerns, the market worries the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates or even continue to raise them, increasing the appeal of cash and short-term bonds, putting pressure on both gold and BTC. Meanwhile, the commodity basket rose 52.5% year-to-date, and large-cap U.S. stocks increased 12.3%, indicating that funds have not fully exited the market, but the performance gap between different assets has widened.
This does not mean the long-term logic of gold and BTC has failed, but it shows they are not universal short-term insurance. Going forward, attention should be paid to oil prices, interest rate expectations, and whether prices can stop falling. If inflation pressure eases and these two assets strengthen again, this pullback may only be a temporary setback; if high interest rates continue to suppress demand, a year-end rebound will not be so easy.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $ETH at 2,320 is the most presentable illusion in today's entire market
ETH current price around 2,320, down only 1% in 24 hours. Looks pretty stable, right?
But if you pull out the three pipes below and take a look, none of them are connected.
In the past 24 hours, ETH liquidations totaled about $44 million, 74% of which were longs, with the largest single liquidation on Binance, a $6.97 million long position directly taken out.
What's more troublesome is that open interest on contracts is still above $30 billion, leverage hasn't been fully cleared.
As long as the 2,300–2,400 range continues to be broken down, the next round of long liquidations can be triggered at any time.
The price looks decent because the coffin hasn't been nailed shut yet. It doesn't mean the people inside are still alive.
The ETF side is even quieter and harsher. Since October, the US spot ETH ETF has seen a cumulative net outflow of $1.18 billion; the $832 million net inflow in September was fully given back in one month.
BlackRock's ETHA alone contributed $977 million of outflows. Last week, another $221 million fled in a single week; the rebound couldn't even last a day.
Institutions aren't just adjusting positions; they're leaving the table.
2,320 is not the bottom; it's just the layer of window paper that hasn't been pierced yet. The presentability is for outsiders to see; whether it leaks or not, the insiders know best. #StrategyQ3BTCGains
📅 Oct 30 AMC — Est: $17.25 EPS | $128M Rev
Print: $20.9B digital gain — not cash, mark-to-market. 848k BTC @ $70.8B carrying, cost $64B. Q3 BTC +42% flips tax: +$4.1B benefit, cuts deferred tax to $1.88B.
Last 4Qs: 0% beat rate. Q2 miss -$24.4 vs -$2.19 est.
Why YES: Polymarket 92% beat $8.67, Est now $17.98. BTC $80k-86k EOD holds gain. #7 profit in S&P — above Meta.
Call: 90% BEAT — EPS huge, but stock trades BTC, not EPS. Watch new buy + MNAV.#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ ✅Current Situation
Recently, BTC spot ETF funds have been fluctuating back and forth, with inflows one day and outflows the next. The continuity of funds is very poor, with clear disagreements between bullish and bearish institutions. The funds are unstable and have not formed a sustained joint effort to support the coin price.
Often, even if the ETF has net inflows, Bitcoin does not necessarily rally, showing a divergence between funds and the market. The core issue is that a single ETF buying force is insufficient to support the price alone.
✅Why are funds fluctuating?
1. Macro is the biggest source of disturbance
The Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations, US Treasury yields, and the US dollar index are swinging back and forth. Once the market reprices to maintain high rates for longer, institutions will choose to redeem ETFs to hedge; once rate cut expectations heat up, funds rush back in, causing repeated switching between subscriptions and redemptions.
2. Fund structure differentiation
Some of the funds are arbitrage funds, not long-term allocation funds. They engage in basis arbitrage and quickly enter and exit with slight market fluctuations, amplifying fund volatility. At the same time, short-term profit-taking funds choose to take profits and redeem once there are floating gains, increasing outflow pressure.
3. Selling pressure hedges ETF buying
On-chain old whales, high-level trapped positions, and selling pressure from the futures derivatives market often offset the ETF's buying power. While ETFs are buying, existing holders are selling, resulting in continuous bullish and bearish battles.
4. Cautious sentiment
The market has not yet reached a full bull market consensus. Institutions dare not go all in and mostly test the waters with small positions on dips. Once the market is under pressure, they withdraw first and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #MicrosoftQ1AzureAndAI
📅 *Oct 28 AMC — Est: $90.6B Rev | $4.71 EPS | Azure 45%*
Last Q BEAT: $82.9B vs $81.4B, EPS $4.27 vs $4.05, Azure 40% vs 37% guide. Now guide raised to 44-45% CC, Cloud $40.9-41.2B.
*Why YES:*
AI run-rate $37B +123% YoY, RPO $678B +99%, Copilot seats 2x. AI contributes >20pts to Azure growth.
*Risk:* Capex >$50B this Q, $175B FY26 — market wants ROI. Miss 45% = -5% stock. Options price ±4.5%.
*Call: 70% BEAT — Azure is the only number. >45% = $555 retest, <43% = $495【Capital Moves Signal Behind the US Bank Charter Amendment】
On October 24, US Bank (BAC) submitted an 8-K to the SEC (accession 0001193125-26-430566), disclosing four items: Item 3.03 (Material Modifications to Rights of Security Holders), Item 5.03 (Amendments to Articles of Incorporation/Bylaws), Item 8.01 (Other Events), and Item 9.01 (Financial Statements and Exhibits). There was no Item 2.02 (Results of Operations and Financial Condition) nor any red-flag Item 4.02 (Non-reliance on Previously Issued Financial Statements).
The charter-level amendments themselves are neutral, but it is common for major banks to amend charters before issuing bonds, resetting preferred stock, or adjusting dividend policies. The value of this event for ordinary readers is not to "trade it," but to build awareness: the Item numbers in an 8-K are a clear event classifier, and when Items 3.03 and 5.03 appear simultaneously, attention should be focused on subsequent developments.
What to watch next: within the next 30-60 days, whether BAC will issue follow-up announcements related to preferred stock redemption, bond issuance, or dividends. Above $80,000, retail investors are accelerating deposits while whales are quietly pulling back — this divergence is more worth watching than the price itself.
On-chain data shows that in the past 30 days, retail investors' BTC deposits to Binance doubled from $5.5 billion to $10.75 billion, hitting a roughly 6-month high; meanwhile, whale deposits dropped from $5.9 billion at the end of August to $3.8 billion, a decline of about 36%. Retail investors are treating the consolidation above 80k as an exit window, but whales have not shown signs of rushing to sell.
$BTC is around 80,000. Weekly ETF net inflow is $442 million, ending two weeks of outflows, but ETH and SOL are bleeding during the same period — ETH outflow of $225 million, SOL outflow of $17.3 million. BTC funds have returned, but only in one direction.
$ETH is around 2,320–2,340, marking the fourth consecutive week of ETF net outflows, with a cumulative outflow of about $1.18 billion in October. The price is grinding below the moving average, supported by existing holdings rather than new inflows.
$SOL is around 101, with a monthly ETF cumulative outflow of about $68 million, and zero net inflow on the 24th. The $100 level is repeatedly tested, but buying pressure is temporarily absent.
In short: The FOMC is very likely to hold steady this week, but PCE expectations have risen year-over-year to 3.6%. Retail investors are selling, whales are waiting, and ETF money is only flowing into BTC. For these three coins, they are all waiting for the same thing — whether inflation data will provide a decent reason.
For market record only, not investment advice.
#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 I now first check if the team behind a project is actually working.
$BCH, as a veteran coin, also experiences significant volatility.
$ETC follows the overall market; don't expect an independent trend.
$FIL in the storage sector depends on real demand.
I basically ignore the trade calls shouted in the group.
Although researching on my own is slow, it gives me confidence.
Divide your position into several parts; don't invest it all at once.
Don't curse when losing, don't brag when winning.
Take it slow; it's better than anything else. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
#中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ $BTC holding steady at 80,000, no problem, ETH has already revealed its leverage trump card
BTC is now around 80,200, dropped as low as 79,400, then pulled back.
Looks pretty stable, right?
ETH is now 2,320, bottomed at 2,295, bounced back to 2,335 then softened.
One break can recover, the other break can only look up. Don’t comfort yourself with the same market.
In the past 24 hours, the whole network liquidated 119 million, longs 82.01 million. ETH longs liquidated 22.41 million, BTC only 13.24 million — ETH’s liquidation volume is nearly twice that of BTC.
What’s worse is market cap. ETH’s market cap is only about 20% of BTC’s, but per unit market cap takes 4.5 to 5 times the hit compared to BTC. BTC leverage has a cushion, ETH leverage is skin-on-bone. The same cut, BTC bleeds, ETH breaks bones.
2,300 is not support, it’s a wound. How many more mines lie beneath the wound, only the liquidation engine knows.
On the FOMC side, the probability of no rate hike in October is already over 90%, but the real blade is on Powell’s lips. Since taking office, he has refused to give guidance in advance. The market isn’t afraid of rate hikes, it’s afraid he changes the topic when he speaks. The ETH longs that haven’t been cleared are waiting not for data, but for Powell’s tone.
BTC breaking down is called a scare without danger, ETH breaking down is called structural fragility. Same market, two stretchers.
Personal review, not trading advice.这事我看偏顺着企业稳信心的趋势，但不能当成$BTC走强的信号。Empery Digital上周回购122,955股，持有1,018枚BTC；买的是自家股票，不是币。
我做趋势守三条：看方向，回购利好公司情绪；看持续，单周动作不够；看确认，市场得有跟进。趋势是最好的朋友，我先观察。你们看这类持币公司，怎么判断趋势？上周一（10/23）我在这儿写：这波 BTC 去摸 79,000 的概率我给 55%。当时价格还在 81,000。今天（10/26）我打开行情，BTC 在 79,800 到 80,700 之间晃，周六那天还一度砸到 79,100 出头，把 8 万整数关戳破了——虽然几小时就弹回来了。 所以先跟大伙儿对账。上上周留的三个预判： 第一，「FOMC（10/27–28）前 BTC 日线收不上 85,000，概率 65%」。这条不用等了，已经证伪不了——价格现在 80k，85k 连影子都没摸着。对。 第二，「10/30 期权到期前摸一次 79k，概率 55%」。还没真正踩到，但周六那一针已经离得很近了。我把概率往上提一点，给 60%。理由很直白：现在离 10/30 只剩四天，价格又压到 80k 门口，期权那 148,585 枚的 Max Pain 就钉在 79,000，做市商对冲会把价格往这个点位拽。 第三，「FOMC 前跌破 78,000 概率 <30%」。目前还成立，周六最低 79,100，没破 78k。这条我继续挂着。 说回盘面。今天 BTC 大约 79,500（各源 79,800–80,Galaxy Research announces that the Bitcoin bear market has ended, calling the current period a long-term buying opportunity, while Strategy interrupts its four-week consecutive buying streak, and Strive completes the largest single purchase in history with 6,182 coins added. 1. Galaxy Research clearly states that Bitcoin has bottomed out, "the current time is an attractive buying opportunity," and believes the bear market phase is over; however, the price did not immediately respond, with $BTC falling below $80,000, currently around $79,812 (-0.5%), daily range $79,369–$80,952, and 24h $BTC liquidations totaling $39.22 million, of which longs account for $27.68 million (71%). The market is still deleveraging ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting and the US midterm elections. 2. Corporate treasuries show rare divergence: Strategy halts its consecutive four-week buying rhythm and instead spends $205 million to repurchase STRC preferred shares; Strive completes the largest single purchase ever of 6,182 $BTC (about $511.4 million), raising its total holdings to 43,000 coins, ranking fourth among corporate holders, and plans to continue buying coins by issuing up to $1 billion in SATS preferred shares via ATM; BitMine increases its holdings by 10,452 $ETH to a total of 6.05 million coins. 3. OKX / $OKB: Pump.fun officially launches OKX's X Lay$MON is bearish, with a cliff unlock on November 24 accounting for about 33% of the circulating supply. There are 29 days left until the unlock, so the pressure hasn't arrived yet. We backtested events where the unlock volume exceeded 10% of circulation; underperformance was concentrated in the 7 days before the unlock, averaging about 6% behind the market, with three out of four cases closing negative. The real focus should be the week starting November 17. Currently, the market is very cold, with almost zero trading volume and only $20 million in open interest; the recent liquidation over the past day was just sporadic long positions. No new money is coming in, the lowering highs and bearish moving averages make sense, and the supply event will only make this structure harder to reverse. In the last week, watch for two things: whether open interest suddenly expands, and whether the price starts to lag the broader market. If both occur, underperformance will be realized. Conditions for a bullish reversal: after the 17th, $MON holds above 0.02205 and remains stronger than the market, invalidating the bearish bias. There is no stable direction in backtesting after the unlock day, so no judgment is made here.#AlphabetQ3CloudAndAI
*$GOOGL / Alphabet Q3 — Cloud + AI Beat?*
*Streak: 12 Qs double-digit growth, 4/4 EPS beats avg +86%*
Last Q: Cloud $24.8B *+81.8%*, margin 35.6% — fastest ever. Backlog >$510B. Search +17% resilient vs AI chat.
*Watch:*
Cloud >75% = BEAT, <70% = miss. Capex $195-205B FY26 (Q2 $44.9B), 2027 guide = stock mover. FCF -$5.9B last Q. Options ±6.4% move priced.
*Call: 65% BEAT — Cloud drives, but capex fear caps. Target $373 if >70% + backlog up.*$HYPE 和$ZEC 我一直都认为是市场的风向标，之前比特币在87,000的时候，HYPE和ZEC也是率先走弱，HYPE在98见顶最后一直弱势整理。
ZEC在1700附近见底之后直接跌破了整理区间，后面$BTC 也开始见顶然后跌到现在80000附近，目前HYPE和ZEC开始短期回调底部的特征，特别是ZEC目前开始有资金护盘。
当然并不是这一次行情是这样，前面好几波行情，不管是熊市中的反弹还是牛市的回调，HYPE和ZEC都会先于BTC一步走出方向，这两个币的狗庄对大盘行情的判断基本上是100%准确的，可以当作判断接下来行情的重要参考。
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Just saw "Repurchase of $205 million STRC," and my first reaction was: Is Strategy making a big move again? But looking closely, this time it's about repurchasing STRC, not buying BTC. The news comes from Michael Saylor; as of October 25, 2026, the company still holds 848,517 BTC and $5.1 billion in assets.
My understanding is that this news is more important for me in terms of how Strategy manages its financing arrangements, rather than just focusing on how much $BTC it holds. Repurchasing STRC at least shows the company is actively adjusting this part of its arrangements; simultaneously disclosing credit risk indicators is also a response to external concerns about its financial stress capacity.
I tend to think this has a more direct impact on those concerned with Strategy's credit risk than on ordinary BTC holders. The reason is that its BTC holdings are large, and the market easily links the company's financing actions with coin price sentiment; but a single repurchase itself is not enough to prove the risk has disappeared. The $5.1 billion in assets looks substantial, but what it covers and under what conditions it is sufficient is what I want to understand.
To be honest, I haven't fully understood how the credit risk indicators correspond to the assumed BTC annualized yield 🤔. For now, I'll remember this repurchase and will pay more attention to how it explains risk going forward, rather than rushing to conclusions just because of big numbers.Someone tokenized gold just to facilitate trading. STRATO is thinking about something else: mortgage gold bars to mint the stablecoin USDST for use, the gold remains in the vault, and the exposure stays unchanged.
The advisor is Joe Lubin, co-founder of Ethereum. The team wrote an Ethereum Haskell client back in 2014 and has raised over 41 million USD in total funding.
Borrowed money has a cost; if the gold price falls, the collateral ratio drops, and if it falls below the threshold, liquidation occurs. The difference from directly selling is that selling is turned into pledging.白天上班没空细看，夜里刷到 Strive 这条，手指在屏幕上停了好一会儿。🌙 让我睡不着的不是又有人买了 BTC，而是一次增持就有 6,182 枚：这么大的数字摆在眼前，很容易把人的情绪也带着跑。
翻了下披露信息：纳斯达克上市公司 Strive 在 10 月 17 日至 23 日期间买入 6,182 枚 BTC，含费用和开支的均价约 82,732 美元。截至 10 月 23 日，它的持仓从 36,818 枚增至 43,000 枚。这是公司披露的已发生动作，不是对后面走势的承诺。
我的判断是，这条消息对“企业持有 BTC”的讨论有分量，但短线影响容易被高估。一方面，持仓继续增加，会让市场更关注上市公司把 BTC 放进资产配置这件事；另一方面，普通用户看到大额买入，容易直接联想到价格该怎么走，可一家公司的决策替不了整个市场回答这个问题。
还有个我想盯住的点：持仓规模越大，市场越会在意它之后如何管理这笔资产，而不只是这次买了多少。如果后续还有披露，再看动作是否延续；今晚先把兴奋和判断分开，别让一条消息替我做决定。The colder the $BTC market gets, the clearer it becomes who is competing for the next round's entry.
Connecting Pump.fun to X Layer is, in my opinion, a crucial move 🤔
With a sluggish market and shrinking trading volume, what will truly be scarce in the next cycle is distribution and attention. When making early-stage investments, I always look at two things: whether the asset can be seen and whether users can enter with low friction.
X Layer is backed by @OKX, and now by integrating a global-level traffic entry like Pump.fun, the ecosystem's discovery and distribution capabilities are further enhanced.
When the market recovers, traffic won't be evenly distributed. Whoever lays out the entry points, assets, and user pathways in advance will be the one to capture the next wave.
$OKB $ETH 如果大单在悄悄吸筹、价格却横着不动，那么现在最该盯的其实不是涨幅，而是风险预算。 钱进来了，为什么盘面还是没方向？ 这几天翻数据时我有个很微妙的感觉：BTC 日内净流入约 258，大单是主要推力，可价格依旧在 80000 附近磨；ETH 净流入约 4275，结构算健康，大单也跟上了，独立性却偏弱，还是贴着 BTC 的节奏走；SOL 净流入约 45800，吸筹力度最明显，大单持续加码，弹性优势也最突出。✨ 把这三个放一起看，强弱顺序其实有层次：SOL 的边际买盘最积极，ETH 稳但缺自主叙事，BTC 更像定海神针。可问题在于，钱到了不等于马上涨，横盘阶段最容易来回扫，止损被反复触发，仓位管理比方向判断更先决定生死。🫧 偏多的路径是：大单继续吸，SOL 率先放量抬头，ETH 跟上补涨，风险偏好回暖后山寨才有扩散空间。反过来，若 BTC 迟迟不选方向，SOL 又撞上解锁带来的潜在抛压，买盘很可能被慢慢消耗，横盘越久越容易变成诱多。我更在意的第二层变化是节奏——现在的钱偏耐心，交易上就不适合追着波动跑，而该把单笔风险压小、留出补仓和纠错的余地。 说白了，这轮更像在考验谁先被震下车，而不是谁先中期选举魔咒？别慌，真正的生死线在73K-75K！
过去四次中期选举，比特币一次没躲掉：2010年回撤72%，2014年65%，2018年52%，2022年27%。且过去四个选举年的Q4，三个是负收益。11月3日投票在即，你慌不丢人，数据摆在这里。
但今年剧本变了！本轮低点是7月1日的57850，比选举日足足早了125天。到10月底，价格已反弹至81000上方（涨幅约40%）。“选举底”已经提前打完，再拿“选举后才见底”的旧日历套新行情，时间轴全错。
选举魔咒的真正杀伤力，不在“选举”二字，而在它可能成为价格去测试“共同成本区”的催化剂：
短期持有者平均成本约73000，机构（如Strategy）平均成本约75446。真金白银堆出的防线挤在同一区间。
当前$BTC 盘中最低79146，已跌破8万。清算热力图显示，80000-80844是密集清算区，下方79000还有约36亿美元多头。门在哪？
第一道门：80000；第二道门：78000；终极生死门：73000-75000。
选举只是日历上的日子，成本才是账本上的真相。11月3日可以跌，但73K-75K绝不能丢。#SamsungQ3ProfitOutlook *$SAMSUNG Q3 — Beat? YES
Op Profit *107.4T won ($80.2B) vs 106.1T est BEAT* — +783% YoY, 4th record in a row, first 100T+ quarter ever. Rev 195T vs 199T est slight miss (-2%). Q2 89.4T, Q3 25 only 12.17T.
*Why:*
HBM4 shipments +50% QoQ, DRAM/NAND supply < demand till 2027-28. 55% margin. Memory = bulk of profit.
*Risk:* Won strength + Q4 profit growth slowing to +8% QoQ vs +20% now. Stock -25% from June high despite record.
*Call: BEAT confirmed prelim 先说结论：不做反弹. 上去做空
客观盘面
图1. 日线已经确认破位了. 是812的区间非精准价格！具体看图！空头结构结束的拐点是84
图2.4hr级别. 在79一带有反弹. 上方阻力81/821。792下方仍有真空区
主观观点
日线这种破位，除非有巨量k线收回去，否则会继续延续过去一个多月的【非牛回】观点. 去下方7.6再测试支撑. 目前日线macd也在0轴之下了. 所以反弹继续空没毛病的
4hr级别. 上两周给到的1/2/3空单位置，在掠夺2之后就开启这波下跌了. 上周五跌破815，是已经把1hr级别的多头结构终结，延续4hr级别的空头结构. 虽在79一带有反弹. 但结合合约数据. 更多是空军减仓非多军进场. 另外从8.7开始的下跌反弹，斐波的0.618多次生效. 当下的0.618就是83一带
操作建议
结合以上不同周期，顺势而为
827-83 空, 这是最优进场位置. 防守84
若行情今明继续无量反弹. 在靠近815也可以空. 止损是83一带
当然 815和83两个位置分批，84止损也可以. 根据自己周期来做就可以了. $BTC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 事件：巴西股指期货暴跌15%，触及跌停 这件事。接下来 24 小时的量能，会决定它是一次性噪音还是趋势的起点。 巴西股指期货暴跌15%，触及跌停，此前巴西总统卢拉赢得选举。 当下的盘面坐标： · BTC 现价 79,895.40，24 小时 -0.51% · ETH 现价 2,311.88，24 小时 -0.80% · 现货 USDT 对里 103 个上涨 / 88 个下跌（成交额 ≥ 10 万美元口径） 把这件事拆成三个可跟踪的观察点： 1）同类标的有没有跟涨或跟跌，联动说明资金在按板块给定价； 2）资金费率有没有转向，杠杆情绪常常比现货价格更早松口。 3）接下来的 24 小时里量能是放大还是缩小，是判断它有没有被市场接受的最快指标； 把它放回更长的时间轴看： · 判断它有没有用，不看当天的涨跌，看一周之后价格还在不在原来的位置； · 和过去几次同类情况比一比：第一次多半只是情绪，第二次才开始有资金进场； · 三天之内要是价格回到原点，就当这件事没发生过，继续跟原来的结构。 你倾向于先破上沿还是先破下沿？ 上面哪一条你觉得最站不住，评论区点出来。#BTC spot ETF funds fluctuate repeatedly, can the market buying hold steady?
I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
Today $BTC dipped below 80,000 then recovered. Don't be fooled by the numbers; the essence is one sentence: ETF buying is a "pulse," not a "base." In the first three days last week, inflows were 1.07 billion, then 770 million was withdrawn in the last two days. IBIT single-handedly supported the market, while other products are exiting.
The short-term break below 80,000 is due to leveraged long positions being shaken out plus tightening macro interest rate expectations, but the mid-term stabilization conditions remain unchanged:
Holding the 80,000 level counts as a "false breakout";
True stabilization depends on three consecutive days of ETF net inflows + stablecoin supply bottoming + reclaiming 81,000.
Mid-term, I see this as a high-volatility clearing period around 80,000. No reversal is confirmed before this; only repair is recognized.
Altcoins should not rush either; wait for Bitcoin to anchor liquidity first.
$ETH $SNDK Have you ever heard of project teams being more anxious than you? Three projects are desperately buying back tokens, yet all three coins are falling. The project teams are running around in panic!
$UNI is up +3.32% today. But in 30 days, it's down -28%. Yesterday, Arthur Hayes' fund sold 323,000 tokens behind the scenes. He was the first to call it, but he was also the first to run... The V4 fee switch was turned on in July, buybacks have been ongoing, but the price doesn't acknowledge it. RSI is 40.8, oversold but just oversold.
$SUI fell below $1, down -8.7% in seven days, the worst performer. On 11/1, 12.11 million tokens will unlock, accounting for 0.32% of circulation, which won't impact the market much. The real problem is the ecosystem is spending money, but no one is buying the coin.
$PUMP does daily buybacks and burns, still 51.5% below its ATH. On 11/14, the team will unlock 20.2 million tokens, accounting for 7% of daily volume, which is real pressure. But funding rates remain positive, and the bulls haven't left.
Luozi thinks all three are doing the right things, but the market only prices "more valuable in the future," not "profitable now."
This mismatch is either an opportunity or a trap; the difference lies in whether they still exist in the next cycle. UNI has real revenue to endure, SUI depends on ecosystem data, and PUMP is essentially a token issuance business, so we still have to wait for meme hype to return.
#OctoberFOMCRateDecisionToBeAnnouncedThisWeek 🔷 КриптоРентген #14: $UNI - 113M сожжено, дивидендов ноль
Uniswap прогнал ~$65,5 млрд за 30 дней, а держатель UNI доли комиссий не получает.
Сожжено ~100M разово и ~13,2M из комиссий. За 30 дней всего ~0,93M. У governance остаётся право на эмиссию до 2% в год.
Красный флаг: слух «UNI дефляционен» не доказан.
Вердикт: жду закрытия выше $7,27. Ниже $6,70 — отмена.
Бёрн вытянет UNI или оборот ≠ доход токена? 👇$BTC 美股开盘前又掉回 8 万下面了，币安北京时间 21 点这根从 80,332 一路走低，最低 79,936，现在 79,920 附近，下午拉到 80,575 的那点涨幅基本吐完。
Coinbase 现货刚看是 79,794，比币安还低 120 多美元，美国这边的买盘还是没回来。
有意思的是价格往下走，持仓反而在加：币安 BTC 合约持仓 24h 从 9.33 万枚涨到 9.4 万枚左右，资金费率还是正的 0.0086%，多空账户比 2.22，大部分人还在多头那边扛着。
$ETH 现在 2,312，离上午 2,293 的低点就差 20 美元，多空账户比还在 3.38。
我的看法是跌着加仓、费率不降，说明多头还没认输，今晚美股要是不接，79.3k 和 ETH 2,290 下面那批多单很可能被扫一遍，我先不碰。这回故事的主角是 Pump.fun。它的应用正式支持 X Layer：用户可以用同一个 USDC 余额交易 X Layer 上的所有代币，不用手动跨链，也不用切换钱包。交易前原本要处理的两道手续，被它收进了后台。
我觉得这对普通用户是个体验利好，但还不能直接算作代币热度的利好。少了跨链和切钱包的步骤，想看看 X Layer 代币的人更容易迈出第一步；余额统一，也让用户不用反复为交易准备资金。不过入口变顺，只能解决“进不来”的问题，不能替用户判断代币本身。
这个故事接下来要看，方便进来的人会不会留下。大家觉得，统一 USDC 余额最能改变的是新用户的尝试意愿，还是已有用户的交易习惯？$AAVE 一周跌掉8.7%，跌到135刀，本该缩量认怂等死，结果量还跟平时差不多。
这才是最难受的地方。真跌到没人接，说明筹码换手干净了；现在这种不温不火的量，就是大家都在挂着单装死，谁也不肯先松手。再看远一点，90天前买的人现在还在赚三成多，浮盈没吐干净，抛压就永远在那悬着。
上周有大户转35000枚进交易所，这种事从来不会是为了欣赏界面。
我的态度很简单：135这个位置看着像个坑，其实是个台阶，没走完。站上140之前我不当这波跌完了。$AAVE This time, Swell has a detail that DeFi users should remember even more than the "suspected admin key issue."
swETH and rswETH contract exchange rates were abnormally high, but the secondary market prices did not keep up. Later, the protocol suspended deposits and withdrawals of both tokens, stating that the net asset value needed to be restored first.
This incident reminded me: when looking at liquid staking tokens, you can't just look at how much ETH they are worth in the contract; you also need to see what price the market is willing to pay and whether you can redeem normally.
Contract exchange rate, market price, and actual redemption ability are three different things. When liquidity is sufficient, they look similar; once an anomaly occurs, the difference may directly impact holders.
The book value in DeFi only truly matters when you can actually cash it out. First, it needs to close steadily above 81,200 on the 4-hour chart, then attack 82,800—83,700 (21-day moving average + previous high volume area)
Target 84,000—84,900, but the heavy resistance zone of cost, sell orders, and trapped positions stacked together between 85,000—87,500 means no breakthrough without volume surge
Key price levels quick reference
Resistance: 80,800—81,200 → 82,800—83,300 → 84,900
Support: 79,700—80,000 → 79,200 → 78,400 → 77,500
Conclusion
In the next 24 hours, it will most likely consolidate around 80,000, waiting for direction from the FOMC.
Holding 79,700 and no large ETF outflows on Monday → weak oscillation, with a chance to repair to 81,200—82,800
Breaking below 79,200 → opens downside space, watch 78,400, 77,500
Closing above 81,200 is considered a short-term bottom
Two other key time points: FOMC early morning on October 29, and about $10.95 billion BTC options expiration on October 30. Market makers hedging before expiration will cause more volatility near key price levels, making chasing rises and falls in these 24 hours less cost-effective #SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings
*Supercycle ON:*
Q3 25: 24.4T Rev, 11.38T profit BEAT (+62% YoY), net 12.6T vs 8.84T est +42%. Now est +576% YoY. Q2 26: 79.3T Rev, 60.5T profit — previous record.
*Why YES:*
DRAM +26% QoQ price, NAND +16%, bit shipments +9%. HBM4 mass prod started, 12-high HBM3E sold out. All 2026-27 prod sold out. Samsung +107.4T profit already — Hynix next. Meritz est 80.1T vs 74T cons — upside.
*Bonus:* $12.1B special dividend from Kioxia stake sale on table, 50% FCF return policy. On-chain signal divergence — retail investors are selling, whales are accumulating, who is deceiving you?
The latest data from CryptoQuant shows an interesting divergence: over the past 30 days, retail investors have deposited approximately $10.75 billion worth of BTC into Binance, hitting a 6-month high; meanwhile, whale deposits dropped to $3.8 billion, down 36% from the end of August.
At first glance, it looks like "retail investors are offloading," but don't rush to conclusions.
First, clarify a misconception: Depositing to an exchange ≠ selling. It's only a prerequisite for selling. The real direction is determined by net flow, not one-sided inflows.
A more critical signal lies on the other side: Binance reserves have decreased by about 40,000 BTC in the past 15 days, while the total BTC held by whales has increased by approximately 3.03 million since July, marking the fastest accumulation rate since February this year.
Putting these two data sets together, the story becomes clear: retail investors are indeed reducing positions during the rebound, but whales are not selling along; instead, they are continuously accumulating, with chips flowing from "weak hands" to "strong hands." Historically, such divergence usually appears at bottom areas, not at tops.
Of course, caution is warranted: the current proportion of "new whales" (large holders with coins held less than 155 days) has reached 33%, and the patience of this group remains to be tested.
In summary: don't be scared by headlines about "retail sell-off"; the real price driver is who is absorbing the supply. $BTC $ETH 📊 Daily Brief｜October 26, 2026
🌐 **Market Overview:** Total crypto market cap is about $2.68 trillion, basically flat from yesterday and down about 2% from 7 days ago; 24-hour trading volume is about $53.6 billion, up about 37% from yesterday's $39 billion; cumulative volume over the past 7 days is about $448.1 billion, down 13% from the previous 7 days' $515.7 billion. BTC is around $80,200, with a market dominance of 60.1%, down about 2.4% over the week. The latest full trading day for BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $636 million; the week still shows overall net inflow, but a slight net outflow since October began. The market is awaiting the Fed meeting, while Middle East tensions and high oil prices continue to suppress risk appetite.
📈 Phase Assessment: Bull Score 52/100; Altcoin Season around 47–53, currently = early bull/recovery phase. BTC remains stronger than most altcoins, not yet entering a full altcoin season.
💰 **Strategy:** Do not chase BTC between 78K–82.5K; it turns strong again above 82.5K; first accumulation at 75K, second key accumulation at 70K, and only use 65K if macro conditions do not worsen. Core principle remains to accumulate in batches and avoid trying to catch the bottom.
🚀 Potential Coin: MORPHO.
Today's takeaway: $80,000 determines short-term sentiment, $75,000 determines buying odds, and $82,500 determines whether the trend turns strong again. 🌙 10.26 Evening Session Liquidation Heatmap
$SOL $ETH $BTC
Conclusion first: After looking at the three charts, there are magnets both above and below, but the ones closest to the current price are basically the lower bands. Tonight, focus on the downside first, don’t just watch the upside.
- BTC: Current price around 80134, radar ↑ 81250 / ↓ 79025, distances are about the same, roughly 1100 each. The two brightest bands on the chart: upper 81500-82000, lower 79000. BTC is symmetrical top and bottom, no side is obviously more crowded.
- ETH: Current price around 2317, radar upper about 2400 / lower about 2270. The brightest upper band is at 2400-2420 (yellow band), the bright lower band is around 2275. The downside is only about 40 away, the upside about 85, so scanning the long leverage positions below is closer.
- SOL: Current price around 101.3, radar ↑ 104.4 / ↓ 97.7. The brightest area is around 103-105 above, the next brightest is 97-99 below. SOL’s top and bottom are both less than 4 dollars apart, so volatility can reach both sides.
Peak values of bright bands on the chart: BTC 247 million, ETH 349 million, SOL 64.87 million, ETH has the thickest leverage stack.
Overall: The common point for the three coins is that the bright bands below are not far from the current price. If the US stock market opens lower tonight, there is a good chance it will first sweep the long leverage below.$NEAR vs $HYPE Bears Are Getting Uncomfortable
Both are moving higher, but NEAR looks more interesting to me.
Short sellers are heavily positioned against both tokens, and they're already taking losses.
NEAR has the bigger imbalance, which could make another move higher particularly painful for bears.
HYPE looks a little more balanced, but the pressure is still there.
My take? I wouldn't rush to short either one.Sometimes the best fuel for a rally is a crowd convinced the price has to fall$BTC weekend spike to 79300 then pulled back, currently grinding between 80000–80700. With 20x leverage, this is not a trending market but a liquidation zone.
Macro: 10Y US Treasury stuck at 4.99%, Brent crude oil dropped to 114 but hasn't resolved the inflation anchor, funds are hesitant to bet ahead of the FOMC (10/28–29). BTC spot ETF outflows totaled 773 million over two days, Coinbase premium remains negative, US spot buying is weak.
Pre-market outlook: If US stocks open slightly higher and yields stay below 5%, BTC grinding at 80k may face resistance at 81000–81700; if Nasdaq weakens and yields break above 5%, expect a stop-loss sweep below 79300 for longs, targeting 77500.
Trading: Do not open new leverage positions early, wait for 30 minutes of volume and price action after US market opens, move stop-loss on existing floating profit positions. $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Just past 9 PM, brewed a cup of tea and sat down to watch the market. The $APR short position has been hanging for a while, finally showing some movement.
Opened a short at 0.03577 with 20x leverage, now at 0.03343, floating profit 130%. But honestly, this cup of tea isn't very comforting. The actual drop is only 6.54%, a gap of 0.00234, not even enough for the market to yawn. Short positions on small coins can get a sudden spike anytime.
On the order book, the 0.03343 level is very delicate. It's just 0.00143 away from 0.032, like a thin sheet of paper. If it breaks through, the next support is 0.03; if not, it’s the bottom. With 20x leverage, the distance between the ceiling and floor is often just one spike.
The worst is getting hot-headed now. A 130% floating profit easily creates the illusion of "I'm awesome," then adding positions, then getting swept away by a surge. I've seen this too many times and paid my dues.
So the move is simple: push the stop to break-even, take the big profit, keep a small base position as a lottery ticket. Before finishing this cup of tea, take what should be taken first. If it breaks below 0.032, watch 0.03; if it rises back to 0.03577, admit the mistake. $BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 HBM4 takes over, SK Hynix's Q3 profits reach a new level
SK Hynix will announce its Q3 2026 financial report on October 28. The market consensus expects revenue of about 98 trillion KRW and operating profit of about 77 trillion KRW, with a profit margin approaching 78%, potentially setting a new single-quarter record.
The key variable is HBM4. The company started mass production of 12-layer HBM4 in Q2, with capacity ramping up in the second half of the year, supplying Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform. Capacity for 2026–2027 has already been locked in through long-term agreements. Compared to HBM3E, HBM4 has a higher unit price and added value, and large-scale delivery will directly boost the DRAM business gross margin and overall profit baseline.
However, the "boost" is not to be blindly exaggerated: on one hand, HBM4 shipment pace is affected by customer certification and generational transitions, so Q3 volume may be slightly lower than early expectations; on the other hand, long-term supply agreements (LTA) smooth out price fluctuations and also reduce the elasticity of spot price increase benefits.
Conclusion: HBM4 is the key to SK Hynix's profit "quality improvement," not the sole engine. Q3 performance is maintained by the combined volume and price increase of HBM4, server DRAM, and eSSD; what truly determines valuation is the guidance in the financial report regarding Q4 HBM4 volume ramp-up pace, long-term agreement coverage, and shareholder returns.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ In this wave of the market, $BNB has indeed broken out from platform tokens, becoming the only platform token to rise this week:
BNB's RSI is 49.6, neutral; the three moving averages (738/737/749) have converged into a flat line; it has only dropped 4.5% in 30 days and is stuck at the 32% midpoint of the 30-day range.
Currently, the coin price is hovering between 700-760, neither falling nor breaking out with volume, making it the most stable in the market but without any story.
$HYPE looks a bit weak, showing a standard bearish alignment (MA778 < MA20 81 < MA30 84), and is close to the 12.7% bottom of the 30-day box, with an RSI of 40.1, indicating weakness. It has dropped 16.7% in 30 days; 74.5 is the last wall—if broken, it will head to the 70 range.
$OKB is actually a bit unfortunate; the narrative just started when macro policies tightened. It is now resting at the 8% bottom of the 30-day box (range 106-143.3), RSI 39 weak, MA7111 pressing overhead, down 10.6% in 30 days.
Currently, 106 is a strong support; if it doesn't break, it will be consolidating at the bottom. But if it breaks, the next psychological integer level is 100. #OKXICE向SEC申请推出代币化股票交易平台 All three trigger points failed to hold throughout the day, 79,369 still underfoot
BTC today 24h high 80,952, low 79,369, current price 80,333, the whole day in one sentence: every line touched, none held.
◆ BTC | Trigger points only count if closed above, not just touched
In the morning session, we said reclaim 80,500, the highest in the evening only touched 80,575, closed at 80,538 then slipped back; twice in the afternoon touched 80,300, closed below each time; the 79,390 area at 11 o'clock was the only realized move today, then bounced back above 80,200. Support at 80,000-80,100 to stabilize, hourly close above 80,575 targets 80,952, hourly close below 79,369 exit looking at 79,000.
◆ ETH | 2,340 not touched all day
ETH current price 2,324, 24h high 2,365, low 2,293, daytime highest only touched 2,338, 2,340 not touched all day. Support at 2,310-2,330 to stabilize, hourly close above 2,340 targets 2,365, close below 2,293 exit looking at 2,282.
Before the rate decision, don't chase lines by touch; only act after a close holds above. Entering on touches is like giving money to the grinder.Breakdown Warning: BTC / ETH Defense Lines Are Collapsing
Core Judgment: This is not a shakeout, but a defensive collapse
$BTC fell below 80000 over the weekend, with an intraday low spike at 79332. The 79000—80000 range is the only effective support zone recently; if the daily close is below 79000, 78000 will be directly exposed. Until 82000 is reclaimed above, all rebounds are escape windows, not reversals.
ETH: ETF continues to bleed
$ETH broke below 2300, currently around 2321, with moving averages in a bearish alignment since the 2526 peak. More critically, the capital flow: ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $221 million this week, totaling $1.18 billion in October, marking the fourth consecutive week of net outflows, indicating institutions are voting with their feet. 2280 is a previous low; a valid break below it will open a downside target of 2,150.
Long positions are being liquidated, not "shaken out"
In the past 24 hours, long liquidations across the network reached $82.01 million, while shorts were only $36.7 million, with a long-to-short liquidation ratio exceeding 2:1; ETH long liquidations were $22.41 million, the highest among all coins. Leveraged longs have not been fully cleaned out yet, but the fuel for rebounds is running out.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Recently, there's a popular saying in the community: ZEC's market cap will sooner or later reach 10% of Bitcoin's. Bitcoin is currently about $1.6 trillion, so 10% is $160 billion, while ZEC is still under $20 billion.
This claim has several sources. Bankless's Hoffman said on the 21st that in this cycle ZEC can reach 10% of Bitcoin's market cap, and 25% in the next cycle; Grayscale research head Pandl also calculated that 10% corresponds to about $8,100 by 2030; Hayes had called out similar numbers even earlier.
Let's do the math. ZEC is now $1,208, with about 16.33 million coins circulating, which is only about 1.2% of Bitcoin's market cap. At 5%, the price would be about $4,900, a fourfold increase; at 10%, it would be roughly $9,700, needing an eightfold rise.
The bullish logic isn't without basis. AI makes on-chain monitoring easier, making privacy a necessity; Grayscale's ZEC spot ETF is already listed on the NYSE, so institutions can buy; the shielded pool locks about a quarter of the circulating supply, so the chips aren't too scattered.
But I think reaching 10% this cycle is very difficult. It has already risen nearly sixfold this year, with large contract positions, and much of the increase is leverage-driven; privacy coins inherently cross regulatory red lines, so delisting risk is always present; Bitcoin's $1.6 trillion relies on consensus and institutional allocation, while ZEC's buying power is far behind. Reaching 3% to 5% this cycle would already be very strong; I prefer to see 10% as the bull market narrative ceiling, not a target price. The bigger the multiples shouted, the more you need to think about who's taking the risk. $ZEC SK Hynix's Q3 is almost at a "high-profit pricing" level, with the market more concerned about whether HBM4's volume ramp-up keeps pace with the narrative.
Hard data: Market consensus expects operating profit around 77 trillion KRW, with operating margin soaring above 70%; HBM4 began mass production and shipment in Q2, but industry sources say Q3 shipment pace is still slower than expected (Rubin's pace and tuning). Regular DRAM/NAND price hikes also support profits, so "good-looking profits" don't necessarily mean "HBM4 has fully delivered." AI computing power chain sentiment will influence risk appetite, indirectly affecting $BTC and tech heavyweights.
Do you focus more on the realization of "record-high profit margins" or the discount from "HBM4 volume falling short of expectations"?
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $BTC $SKHYNIX $SKHY $DOOD is the low market cap altcoin with the biggest contract gains, and it doesn't even have spot trading!!
A small coin with only a 20 million market cap can surge 60% in one go. If you say there's no project team controlling the market, well, I’m the first not to believe that. Daily trading volume is $230 million, all in the contract pool.
Looking at the chart, there was a volume surge at the bottom with a 260% spike in one candle, shooting from around 0.001267 all the way up to 0.004956, then quickly falling back to about 0.0013, a nearly 100% retracement. The gradual decline indicates the project team isn’t dumping all at once but is pulling up the price while trapping holders.
Today it surged again with volume, hitting around 0.0025 before a slight pullback. In my opinion, this pattern clearly shows the project team trying to offload their last chips. Also, look at the negative funding rates—shorts are paying to hold positions. On the surface, it looks like a crowded short, but it’s more like the project team is hedging long and short to lock in profits, not a healthy bullish trend. Would you run in to catch a flying knife when the market maker is both eating and taking?
Right now, every resistance point above $DOOD has selling pressure from trapped holders trying to break even. If they can break even, they will; if they can reduce holdings, they will. Personally, I don’t recommend going long. If you’re aggressive and want to trade the swing, set a stop loss at 0.0013; if it breaks below, just exit.$37.8 million worth of $HYPE deposited into exchanges, yet the price held steady
In the past 24 hours, three wallets suspected to belong to the same whale deposited 494,300 $HYPE tokens into Coinbase, approximately $37.83 million (according to Lookonchain data, reported by KuCoin, Phemex, and others).
According to the usual script, depositing tokens into exchanges signals impending sell pressure. But this time it didn’t follow the script: $HYPE is currently around $77.59 (Beijing time 21:19), opened 24 hours ago at $76.65, rising about 1.2% instead of falling, just shy of the intraday high of $77.74.
Two possibilities: the whale is just moving tokens to a different place, or waiting to act until after the FOMC announcement. Either way, the price holding after such a large deposit is itself a signal — the market absorbed potential sell pressure of $37.83 million, which is not weak.
Before the FOMC results early Thursday, whether this batch of tokens is a sword hanging overhead or already digested volume will be seen in the next 48 hours.This week is a super macro week, here is a summary of major events for quick review and tracking:
1. Tuesday｜Israel General Election
Short-term priority: top; long-term priority: solid
The US and Israel are closely linked. The election results will affect the subsequent situation. Only after the election is finalized can we better observe the rhythm of related US policies.
2. Wednesday before 08:00｜SK Hynix Earnings Report
Priority: top
3. Thursday 02:00 Federal Reserve Decision, 02:30 Powell Press Conference
Priority: solid
The market basically prices in no rate change in October, with the focus on the December rate hike expectation. If Powell signals dovishness and lowers the December rate hike expectation, the market is likely to rebound.
4. Thursday 04:00｜Microsoft, Google Earnings + Conference Call｜Priority: top
Thursday 09:00｜Samsung Earnings｜Priority: elite
Thursday 20:30｜US Q3 GDP Preliminary, September PCE Inflation Data｜Priority: solid
5. Friday 04:00｜Amazon, SanDisk Earnings + Conference Call｜Priority: top
Friday｜Intel, Strategy, Coinbase Earnings Conference Calls｜Priority: elite
Friday｜Bank of Japan Meeting, market expects no rate change｜Priority: elite
Other minor news will not be listed.
Overall rhythm: major events intensify starting Thursday, the key market turning point is likely within this window.
Current CME tools show a 73.9% probability of a December rate hike:
• If Powell continues to emphasize inflation stickiness and keeps room for further hikes, US Treasury yields and the dollar will strengthen, suppressing high-valuation tech assets;
• If he takes a cautious stance and suggests continuing to observe subsequent data, risk appetite will recover.
In an optimistic scenario, as long as Powell gives a "wait for the next round of data to reassess" tone, the November rebound narrative could start early.
$BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Barclays upgraded TSLA to Overweight, raising the target price from 370 to 450, with a pre-market gain of over 2%.
CNBC reported today that Barclays raised the rating from Equal Weight to Overweight, with a target price of $450.
Compared to Friday's close at 372.22, there is about 21% upside.
The main reasons are the potential merger with SPCX, a recovery in the core business, and a turning point in Robotaxi mileage.
Nasdaq pre-market is around 381.83, up about 2.6%; TSLA perpetual contracts on OKX are also near 382.
I think the upgrade is a sentiment catalyst, but treating the merger as the main narrative risks overextension.
Q3 automotive revenue is still down year-over-year, and free cash flow has been cut significantly; I won’t chase the rally until these stabilize.
Observing without chasing.
Watch if it can hold above 380; if it falls below Friday’s close near 372, consider the upgrade trade invalid.
Will you add to your position following the upgrade, or wait for more concrete merger clues?
$TSLA $SPCX $BTC
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