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Big Brother Maji got liquidated again and again and again and again! Getting liquidated 5 times in one hour straight is impressive 😂
He kept stubbornly holding 25x ETH long positions, and then when Ethereum dropped below 2300, his positions got wiped out round after round, with cumulative losses rolling up to about $37.05 million.
The last liquidation record was about 128 ETH, even more intense than the previous four combined. Right after getting liquidated, he opened another 25x long position of about 50 ETH, as if nothing had happened.
Looking back over the past two months, his account rolled from about $150,000 to $12 million, then back down to $800,000, then up to $10 million, later back to $1 million, $560,000, $150,000, and now only a small remainder.
He then opened a new ETH (25x leverage) long position again, currently holding only 50 ETH.
There are quite a few people like this in the crypto world—when they win, it’s like they’re cheating; when they lose, it’s like they’re cheating too. Watching it all makes your palms sweat for him.Quicksand is silent, just waiting for someone to step firmly
BTC fell below 80,000, currently at 79,600; ETH slid from 2,500 down to 2,297, with buyers stepping in at 2,400, 2,350, and even blindly at 2,300—the reason always the same: it’s dropped so much, it’s due for a rebound.
But quicksand never swallows you whole at once. It first makes you feel something underfoot, making you struggle to reach upward; each time you reach, you sink an inch deeper. Viewed on a longer K-line, it’s like someone repeatedly thinking they’re about to climb out, only to feed the last bullet in, shaking off those who are shorting.
Below 2,300, there’s an order of over 127 million at 2,256, and at 2,228 another 116 million. That’s not a floor, it’s the next batch lining up. Every time the market gently pulls up, someone reaches out to catch it, and then they all sink down together.
No talk of moving average death crosses, no mention of ETFs. Just one thing: you’re waiting for it to bottom out, it’s waiting for you to catch the bottom. Just broke 2,300, don’t reach out too early. In quicksand, no one falls and disappears; everyone disappears because they thought they had stepped firmly. The short-term sharp drop of $SOL has come to a pause. In the next few days, it should at least rebound a bit. I'll continue to add a little to my position. Regardless of whether it falls further later, as long as I set a stop loss on the added portion, I can sleep peacefully! Actually, the short-term outlook is still bearish because there are resistance levels everywhere above. After several big drops, funds have definitely flowed out of the crypto market. Even the brothers still in the market lack confidence to go long in such extreme conditions. At this time, those daring to bottom-fish, besides someone like me who is fearless, are only some treasury companies. However, the buying power is undoubtedly weaker than the selling pressure. But it doesn't matter. My logic for going long is because it's cheap, not because I bet on a trend reversal. So as long as short-term big ups and downs don't affect my position, I can completely ignore them!$BTC market trend reversal or just a smokescreen???
Right after midnight tonight, there was a rebound with a one-hour candlestick plus this news: Strategy, Strive, and others supported the purchase of 135,979 $BTC through preferred stock financing, accounting for over 0.5% of the maximum supply.
Do all you genius traders think the market trend has reversed???
On the contrary, this is a signal to lure retail investors to take the bait!!!
Because preferred stock financing conflicts with funds used to buy BTC,
this portion of funds will either be used to buy back MicroStrategy or continue buying BTC. If BTC is bought, then the money for buying back MicroStrategy decreases; if MicroStrategy is bought back, then the money for buying BTC decreases.
When the market is weak, these funds will prioritize buying back MicroStrategy and reduce BTC purchases.
It’s obvious that the current market will definitely prioritize buying back MicroStrategy rather than purchasing BTC!!!
Therefore, at this point, it actually indicates that MicroStrategy’s funds for buying BTC will decrease, not that there is a large inflow of funds into BTC as many think!!!#$BTC
The 80,000 mark has been broken, so how are there still people issuing new shares to exchange for BTC? This money definitely isn't from retail investors.
Research from Fidelity Digital Assets: As of October 5, companies like Strategy and Strive have been accumulating coins through "perpetual preferred shares," having bought a total of 135,979 coins over more than a year, accounting for over 0.5% of the total supply. Strive holds 32,773 coins, and the batch of 3,311 coins on October 9 was bought at an average price near 84,500.
The market data matches: OKX current price is 80,257, 24-hour low is 79,220, funding rates are basically zero, and open interest is still $24.5 billion. Interestingly, the premium is gone, the coin price has dipped below 84,500, and that batch of new money from Strive is already down about 5%. Strategy's STRF still carries a 10% annual dividend, which looks like they're borrowing courage from the market.
I used to think preferred shares were just a gimmick, but now they are one of the largest hidden buy orders on the market. I’m not guessing the bottom here; let’s see if they can still issue the next batch of new shares.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ 136,000 bitcoins were bought with preferred shares.
Many people are excited when they hear that the treasury company bought 136,000 BTC.
But where does the money come from? It comes from financing by issuing perpetual preferred shares. These shares have no maturity date but require regular dividends, and the dividends take precedence over common stock.
When prices rise, they act as an amplifier; when prices fall, the pressure to pay dividends does not lessen at all.
So the key is not how many they bought, but whether the next round of financing can be successfully issued and what the interest rate will be. That is the critical point of this model.$ETH
Hayes completely cleared Maelstrom's entire directional position. My first reaction wasn't to shout crash, but to note down this move first.
He just said, "I dumped it all." Lookonchain counted, seven coins totaling $22.28 million, the largest holding 6,400 ETH, about $15.2 million, accounting for 70%. The implied selling price is around 2375, similar to Saturday's price, not a dumping price. His reason is that the macro and geopolitical situations are unstable, so he's sitting on the sidelines waiting for all clear.
I just pulled the market data: OKX current price 2326, 24-hour low 2282, opening 2404, down more than 3 points in a day. The perpetual funding rate is still negative, OI is at $1.45 billion. Another monitor said two early giant whale wallets transferred out 4,000 ETH, planning to sell.
Big players wait for signals before entering; I haven't even opened a position yet, so no one is holding anyone back. At this position, I'll keep watching the show, and if I get itchy hands, I'll silently repeat his phrase "go down to go up."
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Conclusion first: $WLD dropped from 0.5312 to 0.459 in 24 hours, a -13.6% decline; on the same day, $BTC only fell by -1.66%. The sharper drop is not due to narrative but leverage and chip movement.
On-chain early move: On 10-24 at 06:47, an address received 18,939,463 WLD, about 8.7 million USD. Within 19 hours, it transferred out in two transactions: 500,000 at 22:42 and 10 million at 01:25, with an intermediate address in between. None of these addresses have exchange tags on-chain, so don't rush to conclusions—the chips are indeed moving.
Contract data further explains the issue: On OKX, WLD perpetual contracts traded about 148 million USD in 24 hours, while spot was only 9.75 million, a 15x difference. Open interest dropped from 40.95 million USD to 35.25 million, a -13.9% decrease: longs are closing, not shorts opening. Funding rate settled at -0.0098% on 10-25 00:00, next period -0.0108%, shorts have started paying.
Chips are still loose: circulating supply is 3.719 billion, total supply 10 billion, FDV 4.59 billion is 2.7 times the market cap of 1.71 billion.
Do you think this is a one-time large holder moving their position, or a batch turnover?$AKE perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.03771, now at 0.03096, floating profit +357.99%.
The idea is very simple: the top consolidates with volume shrinking to the extreme, volatility compressed to the floor, indicating the bullish momentum is exhausted. A single high-volume bearish candle smashed the price down from 0.03771, a typical breakdown signal, short rather than long. 20x leverage, stop loss at 0.04. The trend goes straight down, giving no comfortable exit point, profits take off directly.
At this position, I plan to take half the position off the table first, move the stop loss of the remaining half up to 0.032 to let profits run. If 0.025 breaks down with volume, continue holding; if it doesn't break, close all positions. $BTC $ETH #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $BTC 🔥 220,000 liquidations! $200 million cleared in 15 minutes, BTC dipped to 79,773, ZEC saw $42 million inflow but was firmly suppressed by bears
— This is not a bear market, this is a targeted slaughter of leverage.
At 22:15, BTC had a massive 15-minute bearish candle, breaking down from 80,700 directly through 80,000, hitting a low of 79,773; ETH simultaneously pierced 2,350. Over $200 million in positions were liquidated within 15 minutes. In the past 24 hours, total network liquidations rose to $812 million, with 225,000 people liquidated, longs contributing $668 million.
There is no single sudden macro negative factor; several blows fell simultaneously: US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $635 million in one day, the largest in nearly four months; Brent crude oil surged to $116, reigniting inflation expectations; BTC daily closed below the 50-day moving average for the first time since August. Weekend liquidity was thin, so once a level broke, it triggered a stampede.
But ZEC’s trump card is much more complicated than the overall market.
Grayscale ETF had a weekly outflow of $93.6 million, and whales sold 15,000 coins at high levels—these are the overt bearish narratives. On the other hand: Zcash investment products saw a net inflow of $42 million in the past week, with $20.52 million flowing in on Friday alone. Funds are buying while prices fall; futures open interest declined by 12.45% over the same period, with short positions accounting for over 90% of top traders’ exposure. This is not simple selling; it’s a typical structure where leveraged longs are being cleaned out while spot funds are absorbing.Meta's revenue exceeded expectations, but the stock price didn't respond. The biggest dilemma in the market now isn't whether there's demand for AI, but when this money will actually be recouped.
Q3 revenue was $64.6 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, but AI capital expenditure is expected to rise to $135–145 billion. Revenue is growing, and investment is surging, so investors naturally ask: can the returns keep up?
The crypto world is the same; no matter how good the story is, if the funds don't follow, it's useless.
🟠 Big brother BTC: about $80,843, down 0.6% daily, the $80,000 mark remains critical.
🔵 ETH: about $2,380, down 0.54%, still hasn't shown independent strength yet.
🟣 SOL: about $102.7, down about 1.3%, with a larger pullback; high elasticity also means higher volatility.
AI looks at return on investment, crypto looks at fund absorption. Don't chase stories, wait for results.
The above is just a personal market record and does not constitute trading advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#MetaQ3营收超预期，巨额AI投入引发担忧 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Bullish supports: Stable long-term contracts for HBM, continued rise in server DRAM contract prices, increased proportion of high value-added products, institutions have already raised consensus expectations. HBM4 is only in small batch ramp-up this quarter, contributing limited profit, more of a sentiment factor than a main driver of performance.
• Suppressing factors: HBM4 yield ramp-up below expectations, customers pressuring long-term contract prices, weak NAND demand; precedent in Q2: revenue below expectations, easy to have "profit meets target, revenue misses line".
• Key observation points: HBM shipment volume, ASP, server DRAM proportion, management's Q4 guidance.
In short, performance is likely to reach the expected ceiling, but the difficulty of significant outperformance is high; the focus is on post-meeting guidance.There's some interesting data on ETH here. The whales who had been shorting for a long time have recently started to slowly reduce their short positions.
The position difference between whales and retail investors was -1.2 earlier this month, but now it has narrowed to -0.35. Although it hasn't turned positive yet, the bears' advantage is definitely not as strong as before.
ETH just hit a low of 2282, and in the past 24 hours, ETH contract liquidations totaled 183 million. The largest liquidation on Binance happened on ETHUSDT, with a single liquidation of 11.85 million.
After such a drop, many retail investors were probably shaken out, but at this very moment, whales are starting to reduce their short positions, which is quite interesting.
However, I'm not in a hurry to call a reversal. Whales closing shorts might just be taking profits and doesn't necessarily mean they are starting to go long.
ETH is currently at 2317, with the 15-minute MA20 at 2336. Let's wait until it recovers the 2335–2350 range first. If it holds above 2350, I'll wait for a pullback near 2340 to try going long, with a stop loss at 2315, targeting 2380 first, then 2400.
If the rebound can't even surpass 2335, I'll consider shorting near 2330, with a stop loss at 2355, targeting 2300 and 2280.
I do have a bit more expectation for ETH than last night. Especially the whale-retail position difference—if it can really flip from -0.35 to positive soon, combined with price reclaiming the short-term moving averages, this rebound will be worth watching.
Let's keep an eye on it. After such a sharp drop last night and big players starting to cover shorts today, I don't believe there won't be any movement afterward.HBAR has risen over the past 30 days, mainly driven by the coin itself. The surge from 9/27 to 9/28 aligns with reports of cooperation with IBM, while the pullback in early October followed the overall market trend.
Looking ahead: If more reports emerge about cooperation with IBM and Nvidia being implemented and trading volume continues to expand, this view will be more solid; if these collaborations do not materialize and the price weakens again following the market, then this view does not hold.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
On October 28, SK Hynix will release its report.
Consensus expectations: revenue around 95–98 trillion KRW, operating profit 74–77 trillion, profit margin hitting 78%. Citi is even more aggressive, projecting 81.3 trillion and a target price of 3 million KRW.
But don’t forget Q2—profit was 60.5 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 557%, a record high, yet the stock price dropped 9% that day simply because it didn’t meet the 64 trillion expectation line.
So the key this time isn’t how much is earned, but whether it can surpass a line that’s already been set very high.
HBM4 is the only variable: 12-layer has already gone into mass production for Nvidia Vera Rubin, volume started in September, and Q3 is the first full quarter. But its share is being chased down—58% → 50%, Samsung’s share in the same period rose from 21% to 33%, and yield is rumored to have reached 80%.
I bet profits will exceed expectations, but the stock price may not follow. The real winning move is whether HBM4’s share can hold, not the numbers from these three months.Market trend reversal or smoke screen???
Right after midnight tonight, there was a rebound with a one-hour candlestick plus this news: Strategy, Strive, and others supported the purchase of 135,979 $BTC through preferred stock financing, accounting for over 0.5% of the maximum supply.
Do all you genius traders think the market trend has reversed???
On the contrary, this is a signal to lure retail investors to take the bait!!!
Because preferred stock financing conflicts with funds used to buy BTC,
this portion of funds will either be used to buy back MicroStrategy or continue buying BTC. If BTC is bought, then the money for buying back MicroStrategy decreases; if MicroStrategy is bought back, then the money for buying BTC decreases.
When the market is weak, this portion of funds will prioritize buying back MicroStrategy and reduce BTC purchases.
It is obvious that the current market will definitely prioritize buying back MicroStrategy rather than purchasing BTC!!!
Therefore, to put it simply, this actually indicates that MicroStrategy's funds for buying BTC will decrease. Not that there is a large inflow of funds into BTC as many think!!!
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ USDC's growth story depends on more than the amount of stablecoin in circulation.
For Circle, wider adoption across payments, settlements, and on-chain financial services could support long-term growth.
But investors also need to consider revenue drivers, distribution costs, and the economics of expanding that usage.
The key question is whether real demand for USDC translates into sustainable business performance.
#CircleQ3USDCGrowth $BMT 24h +60.58%, current price 0.03674. There is no reliable announcement to explain the price movement this time, and I won’t force a story based on rumors.
In plain language: The price change has already happened; the real new information is whether the cycles are aligned and if participation has kept up.
Price reaction: $BMT current price 0.03674, 24h +60.58%; both short-term and long-term cycles are relatively strong, price reaction is temporarily aligned; trading participation is only 0.37 times the average volume of the last 20 bars, so the heat currently lacks sustained participation.
The easiest misunderstanding: alignment does not mean the news has been fully priced in, nor does it mean the price increase will automatically continue. Announcement, heat, and direction are three separate things and cannot be substituted for one another.
The next update will only check two points: whether the two cycles have turned aligned, and whether trading participation continues, rather than guessing a nice target price.
If you had to choose one, would you trust event heat first, or wait for sustained price reaction?
Follow-up review will look at whether resistance at 0.05144 can hold, and whether support at 0.02183, once broken, can be reclaimed; volume is only 0.37 times the average of the last 20 bars, so crossing a line once still requires confirmation of participation.
The market is volatile; the above is just a hotspot analysis and does not constitute investment advice. This is straightforward talk from the crypto circle.The real highlight of this UNI move is not "how much was bought," but that "the path is clear" 🚦
Hayden personally confirmed that the first large UNI transaction executed through regulated traditional financial channels has landed. This is the first time a DeFi token has gone through this compliant settlement channel. Note, this is different from the UNI futures bulk trade completed by FalconX and GSR on CME — futures are cash-settled and do not touch the spot market. But looking at both together, the signal is clear: UNI is being integrated into the compliant toolbox of traditional finance.
For retail investors, don’t rush to interpret this as "institutions scooping up and locking chips" in the short term. The first layer of meaning behind opening the compliant channel is to provide institutions that previously wanted to participate but dared not, with legal participation and hedging tools, not to guarantee they immediately buy at the bottom. The real long-term variable is that UNI is gradually transforming from an "on-chain governance token" into an asset that can be allocated, hedged, and settled within the traditional financial framework. The logic of valuation is indeed changing, but what’s changing is the "entry qualification," not a "guarantee of price increase."
Compliance is a slow variable, not a pump button. After this channel opens, do you think UNI will first hold above 8, or first retest 7? Place your bet on the direction in the comments 👇Weekend Lesson One: I was waiting for a pullback confirmation, but what came was a fake breakout trap 😮💨
Friday's plan was simple: wait for $BTC to pull back near 79500 to go long, confirm support before looking higher. Instead, it first pushed up, wiped out some short-sellers, then pretended to break out, only to slam back down immediately. My order didn’t fill, but I got to watch a "bull trap lesson" 📉.
It’s honestly frustrating. The more solid the plan, the more the market loves to play the opposite. Later, feeling itchy, I tried to short, but as soon as I entered, it bounced back, so I quickly closed the position. Only after closing did I realize: that wasn’t a planned trade, it was emotion looking for an outlet 🧠.
Looking at the chart, BTC itself isn’t showing much drama; it’s still driven by macro factors. When the dollar strengthens and tech stocks weaken, risk appetite shrinks, and crypto sneezes along. On the futures side, longs and shorts are cutting each other off, liquidations are dense, and spikes are especially cheap. Weekend liquidity is thin, depth is poor, so one spike can create three times the usual drama 🎢.
Price is stuck in the middle now. Below, watch if 79000–79500 can show support; above, until 80000–80500 is reclaimed with volume, any rebound should be seen as just a recovery. The FOMC on the 28th is still looming, interest rate expectations haven’t settled, so every trade carries a gamble 🎲.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 The $80,000 mark didn't hold; Bitcoin dropped to $79,220 intraday on Saturday
A new low in over a month, down 2.2% in 24 hours
The trigger is the Middle East: The Wall Street Journal reports the US is evacuating all personnel from the Middle East, with intelligence indicating Iran is preparing to attack Americans
The National Intelligence Director's Friday memo states that Iran's deadly plot against US citizens has entered an advanced stage
Trump also hinted at a possible "little epic fury" after the midterm elections during his Friday rally
Weekend liquidity is thin, making crypto the only outlet to sell
In the past hour, $200 million liquidations occurred across the network, with $191 million from long positions
ETH dropped 4% to $2,288, SOL fell below $100, XRP dropped over 3%
No one is buying ETFs either: Thursday saw an outflow of $636 million, the largest since June, followed by another $138 million outflow on Friday
From Monday to Wednesday, $1.07 billion was inflowed, but more than half was withdrawn in two days
I think this wave isn't a fundamental collapse but a pricing-in of geopolitical risk: $80,000 is a psychological level, not a technical bottom; until the news eases, any rebound should be seen as a bull trap
Invalidation level: If Sunday’s close fails to reclaim $80,000, $80,000 officially becomes resistance, with downside targets of $72,000–$75,000; conversely, reclaiming $81,682 would invalidate the breakdown
Do you think this weekend’s spike is a bottom-fishing opportunity or the start of a breakdown?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#Bitcoin #MiddleEastSituation$BTC has a detail no one mentions: Bitdeer mined 283 coins this week, sold them all without holding any, net position zero. Miners are not waiting anymore; they sell as much as they mine — this is the real pressure around 80,000, not leverage, but a daily fixed cash flow of selling. The market is at 80,228, down 1.9% in 24 hours, with volume only 90% of usual, no one is buying the dip. The drop isn't big, but it's very dull; those wanting to buy the dip dare not move. An unusual point: near 80,000, there isn't even a decent rebound, indicating buyers are waiting for a lower price. If the 80,000 level doesn't hold, there will be a vacuum below; even if it holds, don't get excited, miners are still selling every day. $BTC 📌 Title
Evening Report: Deep V scare! BTC dipped to 79,000 then recovered, SOL short position earned a crazy 118%, but rebound warning has been triggered!
📝 Content
Good evening, brothers, today’s market was literally like "doing push-ups in the ICU," those with weak hearts probably got shaken out.
BTC steadily declined during the day, hitting a low of 79,168 before launching a deep V rebound, currently pulled back to 80,125 (+0.46%). SOL was even more dramatic, bottoming at 98.54 and now rebounding to 100.14 (+0.43%). On the daily chart, both major coins left long lower shadows, indicating very strong buying support below.
📊 Market Snapshot: Oversold rebound, daily candle closes with a lower shadow
BTC: Although it tested the bottom and bounced today, the daily MA5 (81,536), MA10 (81,595), and MA20 (82,291) are still diverging downward, the bearish trend hasn’t fully reversed. The price is currently stuck right at the 80,000 whole number level.
Key data: As mentioned in the screenshot, if Bitcoin falls below 79,000, the cumulative long liquidations on major CEXs will be terrifying. Today’s 79,168 tested this dangerous edge, clearing some leverage before quickly bouncing back.
SOL: The trend is even more perilous. The daily chart is also suppressed by moving averages (MA5: 103.52), with SUPERTREND far above at 113.66. From the news perspective, "SOL market pressure: liquidations, ETF outflows" caused heavy selling pressure. The 98.54 dip was a typical long liquidation surge absorbed by the main players.
🩸 Position Diagnosis: A legendary trade!
Based on your position screenshot, I must stand up and applaud you:
· Position: SOL short (isolated 30x)
· Entry price: 104.26
· Mark price: 100.15
· Floating profit: +10.85 USDT (+118.26%)
· Margin: 9.27 USDT
Analysis:
With less than 10 USDT margin and 30x leverage, you perfectly caught the main downwave of SOL from 104.26 to 98.54, achieving a 118% return, doubling your profit! This trade is textbook-level both in timing and holding with conviction.
But! A very dangerous signal has appeared:
Both SOL and BTC closed daily candles with "long lower shadows," meaning strong buying support below. Although your profit is generous now, without protection, if the market rebounds sharply tonight, this doubled profit could quickly evaporate.
💡 Evening Operation Instructions (Secure your winnings immediately!)
First, immediately move your stop loss up (mandatory)
Never set your stop loss at 107.23 again! You currently have over 10 USDT profit. Immediately move your stop loss down to 101.50 (or your entry price 104.26) to ensure this trade locks in very high profits and cannot turn into a loss.
Second, immediately close half your position (take profit)
Close half your position near the current price of 100.15. Put 5 USDT of real money back into your balance immediately. Use the remaining half to gamble on whether the price will break below today’s low of 98.54.
Third, watch the 100 whole number level
If SOL rises back above 100.5 or even breaks 101 tonight, it’s recommended to close the remaining position. After a deep V, the market is prone to volatility; don’t be greedy trying to sell at the lowest point.
📌 Summary
Today was a game for the brave. You not only survived the crash but also made a huge 118% profit shorting. That’s an outstanding achievement!
The biggest taboo in trading is "profit giving back." Doubled profits, if not taken, are just numbers. Close half your position tonight, set a breakeven stop loss, and exit fully if the market rebounds. You deserve a big chicken leg this week!
Brothers, do you think the market will continue to dip tonight or start a big rebound? Let’s discuss in the comments👇#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $SOL Today's drop, many people are looking for reasons, saying it's due to ETF outflows or the overall market weakness. But when I was browsing the news, I found a rather niche detail that explains today's $DOGE drop very well.
Some analysis points out that on October 25, 2025, the price of $DOGE is about $0.197. And today happens to be the day when the one-year holding period expires. In Germany, as long as you hold for a full year, the profit from selling coins is tax-free. Those German holders who bought in at a high last year and have been stuck for a whole year have just reached the tax-free threshold today.
Think about it, with a paper loss of over 60%, finally reaching a point where no tax is due, even if they take a loss, many will choose to sell their holdings at this point, at least they won't have to pay a single cent to the tax office.
This explains why the selling pressure is so heavy today. This is not a project team running away, nor is there a major on-chain issue; it's purely a realistic choice made by a group of foreigners stuck for a whole year in front of tax regulations. This kind of irrational dumping caused by tax cycles often creates a "golden pit". Once these tax-free loss-taking holdings are absorbed, the selling pressure above will actually ease.The Federal Reserve meets next week and the consensus assumes no further rate increase. Yet the incoming chair refuses to pre-commit, leaving markets in the uncomfortable position of pricing certainty while hearing none. With rates expected to hold at 3.75%–4.00%, headline CPI still at 3.7% and core CPI at 2.6%, the disinflation story looks less settled than the positioning implies. That gap matters most for assets that have already priced a benign outcome. $BTC is trading in an 81,300–81,700 baQCP pointed out in the latest market report that the financing burden brought by the AI infrastructure boom is causing market concerns. CoreWeave's five-year CDS has reached 1128 basis points, more than three times that of Oracle.
Project updates need to distinguish between technical completion and commercial realization. Code release, testnet launch, mainnet deployment, and actual user payment are several different stages; progress in an earlier stage cannot be used to endorse results in a later stage.
The reputation of partners will not automatically translate into income for token holders. Whether business growth is passed on to tokens through some mechanism, and whether it relies on additional issuance or subsidies, determines if project development and token holder returns can be linked.
My focus is on delivered products and sustainable usage, rather than converting a single announcement into an unfounded target price.
$BTC ,
#BTC $BTC$ETH has been steadily declining from 2478 without a single decent rebound candlestick. This kind of movement is more torturous than a cliff-like crash. Every small pullback feels like throwing a lifeline to the bulls, only to be swallowed by even deeper lows moments later. The moving average system is pressing down layer by layer, and buyers have almost lost the ability to fight back—this isn’t a crash, it’s a slow, dull cut, with each cut not fatal but bleeding nonetheless. What truly validates the bears’ logic is not just the market structure. Swell suddenly announced the suspension of deposits and withdrawals for swETH and rswETH, citing an adjustment in the exchange ratio. This news, placed in an already liquidity-tight environment, carries a signal far greater than the event itself: when staking derivative protocols start to shrink their channels, what does the market have left to leverage prices? There is no incremental capital, no new narrative, so where does the fuel for a rebound come from? Looking at the derivatives data, some traders publicly showed short positions at 2568, with current floating profits nearing 80%. This is not boasting but a microcosm of a structural fact: once a trend forms, those going against it often don’t get miracles but deeper traps. $BTC is also under pressure simultaneously, indicating this is not an isolated weakness of $ETH but a broad risk appetite downgrade. What most people underestimate is that they treat every pullback as the start of a reversal, ignoring that the strength of the pullbacks is itself weakening. To judge whether this logic continues, just watch one signal—the ability of the pullback highs to retake the moving average resistance zone. If they can’t, the downtrend structure remains intact. In the face of a trend, patience is moreOn October 24, on-chain data showed that an early Ethereum participant held 100,000 ETH at a cost of $0.31 during the ICO period and recently transferred 1,000 ETH to an exchange.
The transaction amount itself was about $2.3 million to $2.4 million, not enough to trigger a crash on its own, but it sent a signal: very low-cost old coins are re-entering the sellable state.
The main reason for the current decline is not a single whale selling, but a combination of macro risk aversion, rising oil prices, ETF outflows, and leveraged long liquidations. On-chain whale selling acts more like an "emotional amplifier" rather than the "sole trigger."
In summary: these 1,000 ETH are a selling pressure signal, not the main cause of the crash; the real pressure comes from macro risks, ETF outflows, and leveraged liquidations.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？
Robinhood (HOOD) will release its Q3 earnings report after the U.S. market closes on October 27.
It delivered an impressive Q2 performance: revenue rose 32% year-over-year to $1.31 billion, with a record high net client inflow of $22 billion.
The market's core question: can this round of growth continue?
Supporting points: Both stock and crypto trading businesses continue to expand, with platform trading activity being the source of revenue.
Key tests:
1. Whether the client inflow surge is a one-time pulse and if Q3 can maintain the capital inflow;
2. Whether the trading activity in stocks and crypto can sustain, providing stable support for revenue;
3. Whether newly expanded businesses can contribute additional growth to offset revenue declines caused by market fluctuations.
In short: this earnings report will focus on verifying whether trading activity and new businesses can take over and continue the strong growth momentum from Q2. The market's three biggest names are each stuck on a different problem. $BTC dropped 2.67% to a low of $79,277. Roughly $800M was liquidated market-wide in 24 hours, $235M of it in BTC, wiping out over 213,000 traders, mostly longs. ETFs bled $770M over two days while the Nasdaq fell 2.6%. The 80K level matches the average institutional cost basis, so losing it could shake confidence. $ETH edged up 0.52%. Whales rotated $155M into ETH and staking hit a record 43.8M tokens, yet yields keep fallin#HOODQ3TradingGrowth Honestly, when looking at SK hynix's Q3 report later, the earnings figures might look really good because AI server demand is booming. But the most crucial thing to watch is not just this quarter's profit, but their guidance on the progress of HBM4 mass production. If their HBM4 execution goes smoothly, their dominance in the AI memory market will become even harder for competitors to catch up with. Bitcoin is struggling to build momentum as spot selling pressure continues to weigh on the market. On October 23, exchanges recorded a net inflow of around 34,000 BTC, raising concerns about potential sell-side pressure. Meanwhile, capital flows are diverging. BTC saw approximately $43M in net outflows, while ETH attracted around $77M in net inflows. This suggests capital rotation rather than a broad exit from major crypto assets. The futures market remains relatively stable, with BTC open interIs BTC at a critical level again? Don't rush to break through $74,600 just yet (〜￣▽￣)〜
On-chain data draws attention to the area around $74,600: short-term holders realize prices around $74,595, which can be understood as the on-chain average cost of recent entry funds. This line has repeatedly influenced market sentiment and structure; after the 2023 bear market rebound, BTC stood above it again, which also brought a period of strong momentum. Now, after BTC's rebound, it is once again approaching this line, naturally prompting the market to think of a "similar scenario."
But be careful (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧ $74,600 is not an iron bottom, nor is it a button to blindly buy the dip once touched. What truly matters to observe is: after the price retests this area, is there clear support? Is spot buying strengthening rather than relying solely on leverage to pull the rebound? Can the pullback form higher lows and break through the resistance above again? If these conditions gradually hold, the mid-term bullish structure will be more solid; if it breaks down and support is weak, the market must be respected.
In short: $74,600 is a window for observation, not a wishing well (￣▽￣)ノ Watch for support first, then talk about bottom-fishing. Risk reminder: The above is market analysis and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $ETH
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ Google has always lagged behind products under Zuckerberg and Musk in the AI competition, despite investing more in R&D than the other two.Oil prices have risen again. Brent rose 3.1% on Friday, closing at $116.72, the highest closing price since April 29; WTI rose 3.8% to 103.27. Brent rose 6.2% for the whole week, marking three consecutive weeks of gains.
The driver behind oil prices is not supply and demand, but the expectation of war. The New York Times quoted U.S. officials saying the U.S. and Israel have prepared plans to strike Iran again, timing it after the midterm elections. Trump said on Wednesday that he is not negotiating with Iran and also said "something will happen soon." The Iranian army commander responded that the forces are ready for asymmetric warfare.
Saudi Arabia is really taking hits. On Wednesday, the Houthi forces attacked the Shaybah oil field in the east with drones, killing 2 people; the King Fahd International Airport in Dammam was also attacked, with at least 2 dead and 8 injured. The U.S. State Department has ordered non-essential personnel to evacuate Saudi Arabia, and Reuters reported that Aramco has evacuated employees from its Dammam headquarters to work from home. Both the oil fields and headquarters have become targets, which is on a different level than just verbal threats.
Here lies the contradiction. The White House fears pre-election oil prices the most. In a recent CNBC poll, Trump's economic approval rating dropped to a historic low, so the strikes are postponed until after the election. But the market is not waiting; it is already paying the risk price, making it difficult for oil prices to drop significantly before November 3.
Oil prices are also just one step away from the Federal Reserve. The rate decision on the 28th is very likely to remain unchanged, but with oil at $116, inflation won't come down, and there will be another debate about whether to raise rates in December. Airlines, chemical companies, and growth stocks supported by low interest rates have suffered the most in the past two weeks. Those holding such positions should avoid heavy exposure and reduce holdings if possible; don't stubbornly resist geopolitical news. $BZ > $BTC 🔥 Evening Report — Oct 24: As U.S. midterms (Nov 3) approach, investors may be overlooking a recurring pattern — $BTC pullbacks in previous midterm election cycles.
> Q4 in midterm years:
> 2014: -16.70%
> 2018: -42.16%
> 2022: -14.75%
> Only exception 2010: +391%, when $BTC was still in infancy. So 3 out of last 4 midterm years saw negative Q4 returns.
#HOODQ3TradingGrowth #SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings Honestly, when looking at SK hynix's Q3 report later, the earnings figures might look really good because AI server demand is booming. But the most crucial thing to watch is not just this quarter's profit, but their guidance on the progress of HBM4 mass production. If their HBM4 execution goes smoothly, their dominance in the AI memory market will become even harder for competitors to catch up with. Cracks Among the Three Giants of Popularity: BTC Liquidations Hit $800M, Falls Below 80K; ETH Whales Buy $15.5B but Price Stalls; SOL Struggles Around $100 After Upgrade
The three major mainstream coins are each stuck in completely different contradictions
$BTC fell 2.67% intraday, hitting a low of $79,277. Approximately $800 million in liquidations occurred across the market in the past 24 hours, with BTC liquidations at $235 million, over 213,000 traders liquidated, bulls making up the overwhelming majority. ETFs saw a net outflow of $770 million over two days, and the Nasdaq simultaneously dropped 2.6%. The 80K level is the average cost line for institutional holdings; breaking below it will hurt confidence
$ETH rose slightly by 0.52%. The contradiction lies in this: whales rotated $155 million into ETH, staking reached a historic high of 43.8 million tokens, but yields continue to decline and the price stubbornly fails to hold above 2,500. There is no shortage of buying pressure, but what’s missing is the volume to break resistance
$SOL The Alpenglow upgrade has reduced finality from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds, on-chain non-voting transactions hit a record 8.92 billion, yet the price still struggles around the $100 mark. ETFs saw a net outflow of $30.3 million over five days, and on October 22, none of the seven products recorded inflows. The upgrade delivers performance, not buying demand
Summary: BTC depends on whether the 80K cost line holds, ETH depends on when whale buying turns into breakout volume, SOL depends on whether the $100 support is effective. The more complete the narrative on the popularity leaderboard, the more honest the price
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ DeFi stablecoin yields have dropped back to low levels.
The average yield of USDC on Aave Ethereum was 2.74% in 2023, rose to 6.57% in 2024, and dropped to 3.27% in 2026. Meanwhile, the yield on short-term U.S. Treasury bonds reached 4.14%, a difference of 0.87 percentage points.
What’s more troublesome is that DeFi also bears additional risks such as smart contract vulnerabilities, protocol attacks, and stablecoin de-pegging. With yields lower than Treasury bonds but risks higher, capital will naturally recalculate this balance.
This doesn’t mean DeFi has no future, but relying solely on stablecoin deposit yields makes it difficult to tell a sufficiently attractive story. To retain capital, DeFi must either offer more competitive risk-adjusted returns or provide functions that traditional finance cannot replace.
When even Treasury bonds can offer higher nominal yields, DeFi must present truly convincing reasons for capital to stay.- $9.4 billion was liquidated within 24 hours, with 71.4% being long positions. This ratio is more worth watching than the price drop itself. Have you noticed that the drop isn't severe, but the pain feels very real? BTC is around 80,750, ETH at 2,369, SOL at 101.63; the three major assets are all slightly weakening simultaneously, but the pain on the derivatives side is clearly amplified. In the liquidation structure, longs account for 70%, indicating this wave is not shorts actively dumping, but more like leveraged longs being gradually squeezed out, representing a position-level repricing. The most intriguing part is the position divergence: top traders are clearly bearish, with 54 long orders versus 174 short orders in BTC accounts, while retail investors are still buying the dip. This picture leaves a deep impression on me because it means the same candlestick is interpreted with opposite conclusions by two groups. Big money is trading "weak rebound," while retail is trading "enough of the drop." With both expectations betting simultaneously, the market turns into a game of who breaks first. The bullish path is actually hidden in this data: with shorts so crowded, once the price stabilizes and funding rates turn negative, short covering will bring a sharp upward pulse, with altcoins showing greater elasticity. But the risk is also clear— as long as longs continue to be liquidated, stop-loss orders will create a self-reinforcing downward rhythm. High-beta assets like SOL will feel the pressure first; they have never been a safe haven when risk appetite shrinks. My own understanding is that the market is not trading direction now, but the fragility of the position structure. Prices haven't moved much, but leverage has moved first; at times like this, rhythm matters more than judgment According to NewsBTC, digital asset investment management company CMCC Global plans to cooperate with Tether and an exchange called Securities to integrate its Crest and Liberty Bitcoin
Regulatory news affects whether business can be conducted, who conducts it, and how compliance costs change. Consultation documents, formal rules, enforcement, and litigation are at different stages; filing a case does not equal a judgment, and allowing custody does not mean endorsing all token investments.
The same policy direction may result in different costs and conveniences for trading platforms, stablecoin issuers, and ordinary holders. The applicable regions, entities, and effective dates determine the scope of impact and cannot be directly extrapolated as a global uniform change.
I will interpret this news based on actual new or canceled restrictions, rather than labeling the entire market as bullish or bearish just because of the word "regulation".
#BTC $BTCVitalik mentioned an interesting cost difference: in Bitcoin mining, the costs of computing hardware and electricity each account for about half; whereas in AI inference, the costs are almost entirely concentrated in computing capital expenditure.
Both rely on computing power, but BTC mining requires considering miner procurement, electricity costs, and equipment efficiency simultaneously; AI inference depends more on the investment, utilization, and depreciation of computing devices like GPUs.
This also affects how each responds to cost changes. Rising electricity prices directly squeeze miners' profits, while the unit cost of AI inference largely depends on whether expensive computing equipment can continue to operate efficiently.
Although both are computing power businesses, their underlying cost models differ: one continuously consumes energy to compete for block rewards, the other transforms computing infrastructure into inference services. We cannot conflate the economic logic of these two businesses just because they both require chips. $ZEC
Zcash will change its block time on November 5, cutting it from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, and simultaneously burning 60% of the transaction fees into reserves. Most people don't even glance at such obscure technical details, but I have been watching closely for a while.
The market hasn't been kind. OKX current price is 1159, 24-hour low is 1119, opened at 1250, dropping 7% in one day; Binance's low is 1118, almost the same figure. Perpetual positions stand at $125 million, with the fee rate still positive at 0.018%.
Here's the contradiction: in the same week, ZEC funds had a net inflow of $42 million, with $20.52 million in a single day, clearly money is coming in; yet the price is falling, open interest dropped by 12%, and over 90% of the short positions are held by top traders. Some are buying, some are selling, and neither side seems wrong.
I was proven wrong in the last round on ZEC, so this time I won't rush to conclusions. Before November 5, I'll keep my hands tied.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ First, looking at BTC, the current price is about $80,520, down 1.18% in 24 hours. 80,000 is no longer just a "psychological barrier." Glassnode estimates that companies holding BTC on their balance sheets have an average cost around $80,000. This means that once the price effectively falls below this level, those "corporate holdings" will collectively shift from unrealized gains to unrealized losses. More subtly, Bitfinex's leveraged long positions have piled up to about 89,650 BTC, while short positions account for only 0.168%—almost no one is on the opposite side. A short squeeze requires shorts to exist; without shorts, the remaining risk is just long holders trampling over each other. Next, looking at ETH, the current price is around $2,369, unable to reclaim $2,400. On-chain data from whales is straightforward: the average cost of long whales is concentrated around $2,684, with less than 19% of positions currently profitable; short whales have a larger volume, with an average price near $2,335, and over 66% of their positions are still in profit. This means that when the rebound approaches the upper side, selling pressure will be more proactive than support from below. The price is falling, yet long accounts remain crowded; under this structure, bottom guessing is not betting on "enough decline," but on "others giving up first." Finally, looking at PEPE, the current price is about 0.00000437, down 12.60% in 24 hours. During the previous rally, exchanges replenished over 2.11 trillion PEPE, reversing 10Next week will be the busiest week of this earnings season for the U.S. stock market, with about one-third of the S&P 500 components set to report results. Tech giants' earnings and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will test the recently pressured AI trading.
The impact of macro news on risk assets is not simply that good data leads to gains and bad data leads to losses. Stronger data may improve growth expectations but could also raise the interest rate path; these two forces do not always align.
How much the market has already priced in also determines the reaction. Data that meets consensus and data that significantly deviates from expectations, even if the reported values are the same, should not be interpreted in the same way.
My observation sequence is to check whether interest rate expectations have changed, whether the dollar and U.S. Treasuries respond, and then see if risk assets continue. The initial volatility right after the release alone cannot represent the completion of the entire pricing process.
#Cryptocurrency $BTCDamn, 846 million liquidated in 24 hours, with the bulls alone taking on 702 million, almost 83% of it long positions.
BTC liquidations hit 236 million, ETH 183 million, and Binance had an ETH position that got liquidated for 11.85 million in a single trade. I really don't know how much leverage this guy was using.
The worst off are probably those who kept adding longs all the way at 80500 and 80000. They thought every dip was a bargain, but kept adding until their margin was gone.
I was watching 79700 before, and since this level has been broken now, don't rush to call a bottom. If BTC rebounds back to 79700–80000 but can't hold, I still want to look for shorts, with a stop loss at 80350, first target 79200, and if that breaks, then 78500.
For ETH, I'm watching 2310–2330; if it can't rebound above that, I'll consider shorting, with a stop loss at 2355, targeting 2280 and 2250. For SOL, if it can't close back above 100–100.5, I'm also bearish, stop loss at 101.3, looking down at 98 and 96.5.
But so many longs have already been cleared this round, so a sudden rebound wouldn't be surprising. Especially on weekends when liquidity is thin, a few hundred points up with mostly shorts is easy.
Right now, the last thing I want is to see such huge liquidation data and get emotional and go all in short.
Those who thought 80k was an easy buy last night probably already paid the tuition for everyone. Today, wait for the right position before trading, don't rush.As the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 approach, investors may overlook the recurring Bitcoin pullback phenomenon observed in previous election cycles. He believes this election may again be accompanied by significant volatility, with downside risks worthy of attention, focusing on a key support level around $73,000. According to his statistics, Bitcoin experienced pullbacks of 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27% during the 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 U.S. midterm election cycles, respectively. However, he emphasizes that correlation does not imply causation; the election itself may not be the cause of the declines, as these pullbacks are also influenced by Bitcoin's overall market cycle, liquidity conditions, and investor sentiment. Fourth-quarter returns show similar characteristics: in 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin declined by 16.70%, 42.16%, and 14.75%, respectively. The only exception was 2010, when it rose 391% that quarter, but Bitcoin was still in its early development stage then. Therefore, in the past four midterm election years, three recorded negative returns in the fourth quarter. Regarding subsequent trends, the area around $73,000, close to the average purchase cost of short-term Bitcoin holders currently, can be used to observe the position status of recent investors. He points out that in an established bull market, after a significant Bitcoin correction, support is often found near the short-term holders' cost basis. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC UNI and AAVE are both rebounding today, while CRV has pulled back; however, CRV has risen over 8% in the past 7 days, clearly outperforming the other two. The DeFi sector is showing divergence between short-term fluctuations and weekly strength.
$AAVE is currently around $148, up about 1.6% in 24 hours, but still down about 2.5% over the past 7 days. The $145–147 range is the first support, with resistance at $150–152. Regaining and holding above $158 is needed to improve the structure, while falling below $144 risks further testing $140.
$UNI is currently around $7.07, up about 2% in 24 hours, and basically flat over the past 7 days. The $6.9–7 range is the initial support, with major resistance at $7.3–7.45. Breaking above $7.6 is required for further recovery, while losing $6.8 calls for reassessing the short-term trend.
$CRV is currently around $0.37, slightly down in 24 hours but clearly leading on the weekly chart. The $0.358–0.364 range is the first support, with resistance at $0.39–0.40. Only breaking above $0.41 offers a chance to extend gains, while falling below $0.35 risks giving back the previous rebound. CRV has shown stronger recent resilience but short-term profit-taking has begun.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
SK Hynix is about to reveal its Q3 earnings on October 28. According to the market data forecast in the image, 75% of people are betting that its earnings will exceed expectations.
The market's optimistic logic is straightforward: AI server demand is still booming, HBM4 mass production is advancing, so the performance should not be bad. But the problem lies precisely in this 75% expectation. Recently, memory chip stocks have been on a roller coaster every day. The news a few days ago that Solidigm paused its IPO has already revealed the bottom line. At the current high valuation, the market no longer buys into pure cash-burning stories, and financing pace is clearly hindered.
When the earnings report comes out, there are basically two scenarios. First, if HBM4 shipments are indeed astonishing and profits greatly exceed expectations, the tech stock sentiment can stabilize. Second, if profit growth slows even slightly, or if there is any flaw in HBM4's mass production pace, then this 75% of funds will turn into the main force selling off. Expectations are set too high, leaving very little room for error.
This matter greatly impacts our broader market. Hynix is a global semiconductor bellwether; whether it can hold steady directly determines the risk appetite of the US tech sector. If tech stocks stabilize, BTC can catch a breather; if tech stocks get hit on valuation due to earnings, Bitcoin’s liquidity will also be drained, and the defense pressure at the 80,000 level will only increase.
In terms of strategy, I absolutely won’t gamble on this kind of blind box. I will focus strictly on the earnings release on the 28th. $SKHYNIX $SKHY During the recent escalation in the Middle East, "buying gold to avoid risk" on OKX has been losing money.
From the close on 10-21 to the close on 10-24: $XAU perpetual fell from 4139 to 3990.5, down 3.59%; $XAG silver dropped from 57.65 to 53.39, down 7.4%; $BTC fell from 84502 to 79755, down 5.62%, with 27 rising and 226 falling across the entire market.
But oil is rising: Brent surged from 108.82 to 116.72 in three days, hitting a 3-month high (Cointelegraph 10-23); CoinDesk reported on 10-24 that US troops withdrew from the Middle East, and crypto prices fell below 80,000.
This is not a safe haven move, but stagflation trading—war pushes oil prices, oil prices push interest rate expectations, and non-yielding gold and BTC fall together.
The most painful way to buy: $XAU perpetual 24-hour trading volume is $118 million, while $XAUT spot is only $7.63 million, a 15x difference—you are effectively buying with 100x leverage.
Signal: $XAU funding rate turned positive starting 10-20, peaked at +0.0423% on 10-23, then reset to zero for three consecutive periods starting 08:00 on 10-24, with the premium for long positions evaporating in one day.
When you can't avoid it, what you hold is crypto, not gold.
Do you use $XAU as a hedge position? $XAU